Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 14 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions

Episode Date: December 6, 2023

Get ready for Week 14 of the 2023 NFL season with our comprehensive betting guide. This in-depth guide is a must-watch for football enthusiasts and bettors alike, offering expert analysis and predictions for upcoming games, including a focus on the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott. Dive into detailed discussions of current odds, top betting tips, and insightful predictions that give you the edge in understanding Week 14's NFL dynamics.  Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just a fan looking for insights into your favorite teams and players, this video is packed with valuable information to enhance your 2023 NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on our valuable betting strategies and NFL picks. Subscribe and stay tuned for the best NFL betting advice and predictions!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  / sharpclarkenfl  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome move the line presented by fan duel sportsbook i'm ryan noonan joined here as always by my friends to talk about sides and totals and the best matchups here on the Week 14 NFL Slate. Joining me here as always, Connor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Not a whole lot. I'm coming off of my worst week of gambling in maybe the last five years. And so, you know, I was texting you just like writhing in pain. I woke up Monday, was not feeling too good, but I was like, you know, I'm going to get back on it. Fired off two more plays. Some more bullshit happened.

Wasn't feeling very good after that either. So, but you know what, what's great is I surprisingly feel awesome, ready to get back after it, focusing on the process. And I'm feeling good. So, you know, what's the worst that's going to happen? I keep losing, right? You know, we'll win some money back yeah i mean you know if there was a process situation or i thought you were like off brand in terms of like the types of bets or like the reasoning you know even if it's

for both of you i mean if it's not a play that i tail i read all the write-ups that you guys do in terms of you know the bets do you push out because i want to see the process and i think the three of us have very different approaches we kind of like focus on different areas so i think there's value and lessons to be learned in how you guys see the games and stuff too so i don't see anything that's off brand for you we've been doing this together for six years now you've never had a losing season i don't expect one to start now you're not losing this year right now anyway so still get back on it. So, hey, these things, it's very, very cyclical. It's big picture.

It's understanding that you have to look at things through the lens of the entirety of the season. That's very hard when you're in the middle of taking some Ls, especially like Joe Mixon having an 18-yard rush. The very end of regulation there, just kind of a random bad beat. Bijon losing by a half a yard, that stuff is really hard to get back and open up the book and put something else down. So we'll come back here in week 14.

This gentleman continues to do what he's shown us, basically done exactly what I'm saying. You ride the wave, stay strong in your process, you pop out some winning weeks. Matt is Sharp Clark. What's the wave, stay strong in your process. You pop out some winning weeks. That is Sharp Clark. What's going on, bud? Not much. You know, speaking of the variance inherent in these bets,

when I have some free time, I'm going to draft up a script on Python to kind of illustrate the variance that can happen based on certain win percentages. And like after X amount of bets, like how likely you are to be at certain record, just to illustrate like how often we chalk up streaks to someone being on fire when there's a pretty good chance that they're variant, there's just variants and vice versa. So I don't know whether it'd be

comforting or discomforting, but, uh, that's something I'm going to be working on soon. Um, so yeah, I think that what we wanted to start the show off with before we get into the, um, before we get into the actual slate was like looking at some playoff stuff. And so I was looking through it and I saw a tweet that was really interesting. I think it was from, I don't want to misappropriate it, but it was someone who talked to an odds maker and they said that on a neutral field, I don't know if you saw this, the 49ers would be five points better than every other team. And Clark, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on that and kind of if you have any live takes for the Super Bowl odds here, because we're looking at the Niners at plus 310 right now on DraftKings. I mean, that's obviously short if that's the case that they're five point favorites over everyone, but I feel like that's probably not how the market would value them. But maybe that's the case that they're five point favorites over everyone, but I feel like that's probably not how the market would value them.

But maybe that's how odds makers look at it. Clark, any, any issues or any thoughts about that? Yeah. I mean, five points is steep, definitely at least three against every other team. But I mean, think about it. Like if you're, if you're a neutral site and you're giving the chiefs three and a half against the 49ers and you're like, I get my homes with the hook. I mean, that's pretty compelling.

You know, the Ravens probably right up there at three and a half, kind of similar issue. So I don't think I'd go so far as to say five points, but this is the biggest gap between the number one and number two team that I've had this late into a season since I've been doing this, which is four years ago. So it is significant. What's interesting about this is the 49ers offense is built around a quarterback who's not a big money quarterback. And in previous years, that's been a limitation, right? So you can have an awesome defense, you can have weapons,

but like you're going to go against Mahomes and he's just going to torch you. But in this year's NFL, the defenses have figured out how to slow down offenses like Mahomes' offense, Josh Allen's offense, et cetera, to the point where one mistake out of 15 plays is like enough to kind of disrupt it. And because of that, the 49ers are elite on defense and elite on offense.

They haven't seen the same, you know, step down on offense because of their style is more schematic based than, you know, relying on the talent of one player. And so I think that has led to what we have now, which is the 49ers being clearly better than everyone else and other teams that are more balanced having a pulse in seasons when they wouldn't have. Yeah. I mean, we can cherry pick too. And again, every team has suffered injuries, but what we've seen from this 49ers offense, when they've had Debo, when they've had Trent Williams, it just is kind of like in their own tier offensively. So they, yeah, they are humming right now. And you know, look, we kind of said at the time when is kind of like in their own tier offensively so uh they yeah they are humming

right now and uh you know looks we kind of said at the time when they kind of stubbed their toe kind of like we talked about the connor right stubbing your toe at the top like you just stay with it like look that wasn't who the 49ers were necessarily they had some random stuff that was very you know injury injury driven for the most part and they kind of are who we thought they were and uh it's going to be interesting to see how, how things kind of shape up here down the stretch. Cause we're kind of getting there. So I want to remind folks again, three of us are here every Wednesday,

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Really good deal to check us out here for the next three months. It's going to take you through the end of February, so all of football season through the NBA All-Star break. Come check us out, for the next three months. It's going to take you through the end of February. So all of football season, you know, through the NBA All-Star break. Come check us out, 444.com slash plans. More information here in the show notes. All right, guys, it's December, week 14. We have the final two bye weeks happening this week with the Commanders and Cardinals. We are in the home stretch.

The award market's kind of taking shape. We have quarterback injuries piling up, particularly in the AFC, where it's really opened up the playoff race and even really some divisional spots. If the playoffs were to start today, we'd have four of the seven quarterbacks in the AFC are backups. That would include the Browns, who were on their fourth quarterback. And you'd have teams like the Bengles and the bills not even in it and you know the bangles obviously with you know another place where we would have a quarterback

backup to begin with so the browns maybe on their fourth quarterback but he also might be their best quarterback they've had all year just fyi indisputable indisputable the facts of the facts he was playing as much football as you and i were uh two weeks ago so uh you know look he's older than the two of you but younger than me so i'm not going to be here uh bashing uh soon to be 39 year old joe flacco because uh you know that's a long hard look in the mirror there but uh look we you know futures now like we talk about them a little bit here as the season goes along but i think it's an interesting conversation to have now because at this point, we kind of, some of the hay's in the barn. We're in December. We know some of the stuff. Clark, floor is yours. Is there anything in terms of futures that you have your eye on,

a bet that we can make, anything that can happen here in the next week or two that could be shaping a bet for you? Yeah, probably not. So my issue futures is, it's impossible to predict exactly what variance looks like. But typically, it happens randomly. And so what you want to do is find value on underdogs, when you think that the favorite is overpriced, right? People are over leveraging certainty about the best team. But in this case, I agree with how the market is pricing San Francisco, I do think that they're that good. And if they don't get hurt, I think there should be heavy favorites over every team they face on their way to the Super Bowl right now. So I don't really see value in fading that and being like, well, let's just hope they get hurt or let's hope that

I get an upset with a team that just plays well on a given day. I just don't really see value in Super Bowl futures right now. And also that applies to the NFC. But for the AFC, I think the Dolphins are a little bit overvalued. I know you guys have been pretty high on them all year, so this may be a disagreement, but they're being priced as co-favorites with the Chiefs to win the AFC. And I think they should be the clear third choice behind Kansas City and Baltimore. So I think depending on your views of Kansas City and Baltimore, there may be value on one of those two teams to win the AFC. I've already got all the exposure I need. I've got a pretty heavy bet on Kansas City to win the AFC, and I've got a pretty heavy bet on San Francisco to win the Super Bowl. So that's kind of how I hope it lines up and how

I think if injuries don't happen, that would be my pick right now. And then I've also got some leverage on Buffalo, which I think at long odds has a chance if they can make the playoffs to make a run in a, what is becoming a very weak AFC field, frankly. So if they can just sneak in there, then I think they become a high value team to have some money on it at current prices. Yeah. The way we're looking at it, look at FanDuel's prices in terms of the AFC number one seed. The Ravens are the frontrunners there, plus 160. The Dolphins are second in that market, plus 195. Chiefs actually currently third at plus 210.

There are better numbers. Number one seed not to win the AFC, right? Correct. Correct. Yeah, AFC number one seed, not to win the actual conference. so um which i think is an interesting thing too you can bet both these so there are better numbers than that on the chiefs here as well um and that's kind of that's kind of mine uh before kicking you connor like the chiefs available at three to one to be the number one seed i think it's interesting too uh and the part of that becomes like what do you think of their matchup this week? That's pretty important.

But you look at the schedules moving forward, significantly more difficult for Miami and Baltimore than what Kansas city has outside of this, this bills game this week, including a matchup for Baltimore and Miami head to head. The Ravens also, or the dolphins also have the bills and the Cowboys on the schedule. And then the Ravens on Christmas day play the Niners.

So that's significantly harder than anything that chiefs have in this game is at home this week too. So again, like at this point it gets a little bit harder considering like, if you like the bills this week with Miami and Baltimore being like touchdown or more favorites at home. Now all of a sudden the chiefs are two games back. That makes it a little bit harder. If you were to have a lean on that, but that that's interesting

to me at three to one, not even something I'm rushing out to bat, but like, again, the chiefs outside of the bills, he's played the Patriots Raiders, Bengals and charters. So, uh, a lot softer. They don't have anything that resembles bills, Cowboys Niners, which the other two have, uh, Connor, anything that caught your eye in the future market. Yeah. I was looking at a couple different things here. So if we're looking at just the Super Bowl market, I think that there are two teams that I think there's some value on right now.

You already alluded to one, which is I think the Ravens right now are looking at like eight to one is like, you know, fifth or sixth on the board. I think that's pretty interesting because, I mean, their defense is playing incredible and their offense, I think still has not reached their full potential in a lot of ways. And so I think that if that comes to fruition here

and they can just get hot like they're, I mean, in my opinion, the clear number one team in the AFC. And this is coming from a dolphin stand here. I think that the Cowboys at plus 850 are interesting too, but you will be able to get better odds on them because they have just an insane schedule coming up. They're going to lose some games. I think that their offense is awesome.

The way that they're passing the ball, the way that they're, you know, exploiting teams is fantastic. And that I think the Niners are definitely better, but like, I think that the Cowboys and Eagles are very much close matchups. We're getting Cowboys at plus eight 50 Eagles plus five 50.

I think that's going to be even lower probably for the Cowboys depending on the next few games shake up. So we'll see, but I think that'll probably be, I'll probably look to buy low on the Cowboys. And then if I'm sprinkling anything now, it's probably on the Ravens, depending on the next few games shake up. So we'll see, but I think that'll probably be – I'll probably look to buy low on the Cowboys, and then if I'm sprinkling anything now, it's probably on the Ravens at 8-1. It's kind of a line of demarcation in my mind in terms of the betting odds for the Super Bowl is Dallas, right?

Because then you have a pretty good jump down to Lions, Jags, Bills. Bills, again, like 6-6, like really uphill battle to even make the playoffs. Schedule is brutal for the bills you know it's going to be really tough to have the bills at home and we're gonna have to watch you know uh hobbled kenny pickett or joe flacco and this is what we're looking at at this point which is uh really really really unfortunate and hard to believe yeah oh yeah god if the bats the bats go two and oh against the bills and cost themselves the top two pick this year god that would be such pain no no i mean go patriots against the steelers

oh no i no i was looking at their live win total right now is three and a half um i think the under is probably an interesting look but the issue is that it's minus 145. You play against like the Steelers. And then there's like two other bad teams that they are like, I guess, relatively bad. Yeah. So Steelers, Chiefs, you don't have to worry about. Bills, but Broncos and Jets are on there.

I mean, I don't know. I mean, those are clearly better teams than the Patriots, but I don't really want to lay minus 145 on the under on that. Whatever we're doing this week in terms of totals, setting some like historically low totals. Bailey Zappy, Zach Wilson, week 18 in weather is going to be like 26 and a half or something like that. It's going to be.

You've all heard this. And like, do something like this is egregious. Like this is how did we get here? They're watching the stupid game. We have a 29 point total in the NFL. This is crazy. I mean,

we've all heard the stats at this point, right? Like the new England's. You have to lose three games and not give up 10 points in any of them. They are like second in EPA defensively in the last month, like third success rate. They don't have their two best players. Like the defense is still like serviceable somehow with like,

with like bumps, bumps at corner JC Jackson was awful and still not playing particularly good. So like, this is, you got to hold on to like the, let's, you know,

take bill out to pasture. Let's, you know, take them out to the woodshed and put him down. Like, he's still coaching his ass off defensively. They have nothing offensively. It was abysmal. Romandri went down. Like, what are we doing this week? It might be too high.

So, we're not going to talk. We're not going to go at length unless you guys want to talk at length at the end of the show on Thursday night game. But, yeah, that is a wild, wild situation. And yeah, we're going to have some more upper 20s, low 30s totals here, especially maybe even without weather as the tail end of the season kind of approaches. And that kind of is the impetus of this week too. Weather is an issue this week.

It's already made an impact in the market. Will impact these games on the field and continue to made an impact in the market will impact these games uh on the field and continue to impact these games in the market more than any point this this far into the season which is you know again makes sense we're into december we're gonna have some outdoor games uh in the northeast in the midwest where weather could be an issue it is wednesday afternoon so again we're gonna have a better you better weather report on Saturday night and Sunday morning. So I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but again, feel pretty confident with some of these that weather's going to be an issue when we started with one here. In Baltimore,

we have the Rams on the road against the Ravens. Vandal's a little off market here, which I think is noteworthy. They have the Ravens as a seven and a half point favorite. The rest of the market, I think is holding holding at seven unless that's continuing to move. Totals plummeted here because of the weather, opened at 44 and a half, looking at 40 for the most part, 40 and a half now. Again, rain and what looks to be, Connor, some sustained winds of 20 plus, which is I know really kind of where we start to look at weather making an impact. We've seen some rain consistency early in the season, and that really hasn't impacted things too, too much here. But when we get into wind, that becomes more of an issue here.

What are your thoughts on Rams, Ravens? Yeah, so I hit up our weather guy, our former weather guy, Chris Allen. He used to work 4-4-4 now at Fantasy Life. He basically said that this game will be the most impacted by weather on the slate most likely. He said that the rain and that the projected amount of rain could rival the amount that we saw in the Chicago-San Francisco game a couple years ago in week one,

and that he said 20-mile-per-hour winds will only exacerbate that and make it way harder to complete passes. So you stack that with, I mean, now that's, he said that things can change, you know, for sure. And it looks like Kevin Roth and other weather, you know, fantasy weather guy said basically the same thing that the, that there's going to be basically pouring rain the entire game and that it's going to be very difficult. So this is a game here where you're getting a Ravens team or a Rams team now facing the Ravens, allowing just 5.5 yards per attempt

opposing QBs. Second, even EPA per play. First, explosive pass rate. Like, Cooper Cup is very clearly broken. Like, it's just not the same player as he was. Puka Nakua got injured like six times last week and somehow played through it. I mean, absolute warrior, but like, I don't know how, you know, I don't think he's going to be 100% in this one.

Now you have like rain here. And on top of that, like the Ravens run defense has been good, but not elite in a lot of metrics. And so I think that we see this Ram scene that's already been kind of like lower in PROE, like pass rate of expectation than we thought that we probably see a run heavy approach there. And then another side, I mean, you don't have to ask Baltimore to run the ball. Like they're going to run the ball as much as they can, if they want to. And they think that's the right matchup. And I think it kind of is here. Like, I think this is a good spot here. So I think this game might be one of the shortest games in NFL history

just because they're going to run the ball like 80 times combined between the two teams, given the weather. So I think that even the under here, even though it's already, you know, continuing to climb down here, is pretty interesting. I just don't have a ton of faith with the weather and kind of like how these teams are shaping up for a ton of points here. Although I do expect them to both move the ball reasonably well on the ground. I don't think that's enough to go over the total here. I think that's well said. Clark, what are your thoughts on this one?

Yeah, I think, so I see the Ravens as a significantly better team. I think the number should be probably eight, but weather does impact big favorites, right? It's just, it's harder to get things going. Those explosive plays, the Ravens have had a lot of explosive plays in the passing game this year that I think without them, their offense might be a little bit more compact, but I still like the Ravens for two reasons.

One is, like you said, the Ravens can run the ball really well. They're the best run team in the NFL. The Rams are okay with Kyron Williams, but I think a lot of that has to do with the matchups they faced and the legitimate need to protect downfield against Matthew Stafford, who just loves to sling it. So in a game where there's weather and a front seven that can really get to Stafford from every side, um, I think they're going to kind of crash the line and really stop the run

against the Rams. It's going to have to be on Stafford to deliver in conditions on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL. I don't see it, not in the Rams' current state. So I think the Ravens should be able to cover this just by running the ball successfully if they can avoid mistakes. There's a hesitance here because Lamar Jackson has had some games where he loses snaps, fumbles, makes mistakes, and weather like this. If there's a knock on his game, it's that kind of stuff. But I think the last element that I like the matchup for the Ravens is because both of these teams can get interior defensive line pressure on the quarterback, and that typically impacts a pocket passer more,

like Matthew Stafford, who can't escape that interior pressure to get to the outside than it does with someone like Lamar Jackson. So when Aaron Donald, you know, breaks through the line, if Lamar Jackson's flushed outside, that's not a bad thing for the Ravens offense. A lot of good things happen when he's escaping that. So I think the Ravens schematically just match up really well against the Rams. And I would feel a lot more confident if there weren't weather issues, but even with the weather issues, I like the Ravens at seven. Yeah, you guys did a good job there. I feel like the Ravens have a tendency to play to the level of the competition. They can really step up, and we've seen them.

Maybe we're seeing some holes in the Lions, but they really absolutely boat raced them in a spot where people were really starting to get on the Lions. They were really disappointing, I think, on the bye, heading into the bye on that Sunday night against the Chargers. Lamar really was flat. I think they're having to kind of figure out what that offense looks like now without Mark Andrews.

It'd be interesting to see, to your point, Connor, if they're an actual viable Super Bowl team without him, when he's coming back, what that looks like. But yeah, I think this is going to be one of those games where it's going to be really hard to grab anything concrete from it you know in terms of our like week 15 breakdowns of the ravens because it's going to be such a slot fest and kind of messy so uh makes it a little bit you know but seven and a half i think is is interesting on the ram side i can't that would be a no bet for me um but otherwise i'm kind of with you guys that i would kind of want to back

the ravens so all right next, probably some more weather here. We have Detroit on the road in Chicago. This is a tightly contested game back in week 11. Bears got out to a two-touchdown lead before the Lions came back to win late. Public certainly remembered that. This one took some early action. Lions were a four-and-a-half-point road favorite here at open, basically down to three in most spots.

There's still some like random three and a halves. They're like minus 120 or so that are out there, depending if you have a lean there. Totals dropped down as well. We opened in 46 and a half in the look ahead window, but down to like 41 and a half for the most part that I'm seeing. And again, we have rain and wind in the forecast as well. And we also have, you know, could be a situation we're going to probably be below 40. And we have Jared Goff in weather with

his tiny little hands. Clark, what are your thoughts on lions and bears? Yeah, there's some interesting line movement on this one that I think illustrates some principles. So the game open bears plus four and a half, plus five at most places. And the opening line typically represents the sort of market consensus, like power ratings of the teams. Like, OK, let's throw a number up based on how we view these teams. We throw in home field, we throw that number up, see what happens. And then the early movement is typically the obvious angles. And in this case, Jared Goff struggles on the road in the elements.

It's like it's such an obvious angle that it's not you're not going to beat game day lines with this angle, but you might be able to beat openers. And in this case, I think most of the people, including myself that bet on the Bears at open were sort of picturing the potential for weather in this game and looking at Frank Ragnow likely out of this game and the way the Bears defense has been playing leading into the buy, including against the same Lions team where they really played solid defense. You know, a lot of people say, well, it was turnovers, but the Bears created those turnovers and the same thing happened against the Vikings in that night game. You know, it's like, well, Josh Jobs became turnover happy all of a sudden, but the Bears

created those turnovers. In fact, there was one where they could have had a pick six that they dropped in addition to the four turnovers. And granted, some of the ones they earned were kind of fluky, but it all comes out, right? Like they were generating those opportunities and capitalizing. So I think the Bears defense is ready to really make life hard on Jared Goff with no Frank Ragnow potentially in this one. And that's why the line has come down. So now the question is, okay, but at current prices, is there still value betting on the Bears? And I, I think that

my, my cutoff would be getting three and a half minus one 10. I don't think that I would pay more than that. Uh, because once you start getting towards the three, you know, you're, you're basically betting against the better team winning, um, by a field goal. Um, and that, and that can be tough. So I think all the value has kind of been bled out of the market, but this is likely one that might bounce back and forth, especially depending on the weather reports. We've seen the total kind of go up and down based on I don't know what these you know, I don't have the information on the weather, so I'm not playing total here. But I think there's been some conflicting opinions on how much the weather will impact this game. So we might get to see a three and a half back on the Bears.

And if that happens, I would take that. But this is a spot where I think life could be pretty miserable for Jared Goff. And then on the other side of the ball, the Bears run the ball well, and they have a short passing game that can survive in the elements, especially, you know, we compared Justin Fields, who has a, you know, a strong arm to Jared Goff, who has not a strong arm and tiny hands. We look at Justin Fields, who has mobility and Jared Goff, who does not have mobility. Those things matter in a weather game where, you know, keeping the play alive can matter and even like on a five yard ten yard pass throwing it crisply into the wind and rain can make the difference that you know Jared Goff is

going to have some flutter balls and that that could spell disaster for the Lions so no way I'm touching the Lions here it's just a matter of price on on what I would take the Bears that weather gave you reference at the top, Connor, for the last one. That was a Justin Fields win against the 49ers last year in pretty severe weather. So the weather report matters quite a bit here because the Lions are like an over team right now, for sure. Their games have been going over at a pretty high rate.

They are pretty bad. The Bears have been pretty bad in the red zone this season. You know, Detroit just really, really, I think like 30th, 31st in points per drive over like the last month or two. It's been pretty bad. You know, they got out to a big lead against the Saints and then let them crawl back. Like, and again, turn the Saints into a team that suddenly converts in the red zone, right? So that hadn't been happening all season and they kind of got right and got that game back together last week.

What are your thoughts here in this one? Yeah, I think it looks like circa as like a three and a half, but it's like juiced. So I think minus one 20, I believe. So that's kind of on the edge of what you're saying there. One notable angle that I thought too, I mean, you already mentioned about the bears, probably ability to run the ball. So the Justin Fields has played against this lions team three times so far in the last two years. In those last two years, he has 147, 132 and 104 rushing yards in those games, including the 104 rushing yards on 18 carries in this week. I mean, there is a very clear edge that they think that they have and they are exploiting it. And I mean, two of those games were

close, you know, like the last game was the bears probably i mean not should have won but like you know they could have won if things had bounced their way and it executed you know fields did a shimmy as if he won right remember like he got down like scrambled down the sideline and like he did a we just put it away kind of shimmy so yeah i mean they definitely think they have an angle there right so yeah i think that's like that's something that I haven't tweeted this out yet because I don't want to blow up the prop market, but I'm very excited about Justin Fields rushing upside this week against his Lions team. And the Bears run defense has largely been very good.

So I think that that kind of negates one of the edges that the Lions have going right now as one of the better rushing teams. As you mentioned, Frank Ragnow might be out as well. So there's all these factors playing in here where it wouldn't surprise me to see another dud lines performance and another solid performance from from Fields and the Bears,

who's also been clicking very well with DJ Moore and like really, I think, kind of finding his rhythm in that sense. So, yeah, I think if you can get a three and a half year, I really, really like the Bears

and I'll probably be looking to attack Fields rushing props here. I don't really have a take on the total, though, because I'm not sure what kind of game we'll see i think i mean the bears might run the ball you know 40 times if they can't so we'll see i think if weather's not a problem we're in a nice spot for an over like in terms of like key numbers again but again we have to

wait and see and you know we're all going to kind of we'll get that information collectively together you'll see the market move you want to be on the front end of of that weather report because you know it could get to a spot where it's not necessarily advantageous anymore because of your point like both teams really want to kind of dictate this game on the ground and that can you know bleed clock and slow things down clark then two other things i think favor the bears here one is elene mcneil just got put on the ir for the lines and he's been a stud in the middle of that defensive line that has been the strength of the Lions defense. So that matters, especially against a team that's probably going to run the ball. And then two, you know, people look at the game plan against Minnesota for Chicago and

be like, wow, it was just Justin Fields throwing screen passes all day. His ADOT was like one yard. I don't know what the exact number was. And they look at that and they say, you know, this is a dysfunctional offense that won't work against a good defense, et cetera. So it barely worked against Minnesota. I look at that a little differently. I look at that as saying, we have a quarterback who struggles with the blitz has throughout his career and made a ton of negative plays when he can't handle the pressure. So what we're going to do

is we're just going to get the ball out quick. And that's going to mean a weird looking game plan, but what it's going to avoid is big mistakes. And they won that game because they did that. And so I think I'm twisting that in my mind to a positive about this offensive coaching staff's awareness of what the quarterback is and what this offense is. So I think what you're saying about exploiting some of the weaknesses in the Lions defense repeatedly, I think that should continue. And for now, you know, we'll see more evidence as it comes in.

For now, I'm kind of giving credit to the Bears coaching staff on, uh, tentatively. And I want to see more evidence that they can tailor the game plans to the specific defenses they're facing. Yeah. It's important to be cautious, I think with that, but I think that what you're saying, and like, we've seen it already with the lines before we've seen it, I mean, three times already in the same getsy fields career that he's done this. So it's like, not, wouldn't be crazy. Like you said, it was definitely good game planning. It's Minnesota. You're like, yeah, it was ugly. The stats are gross. Oh, you know, all the, the charting bros were like freaking out because he

had like, you know, the ugliest chart in the history of, you know, passing charts, but I mean, it worked. So, um, you know, I, I don't blame him too much. And I, I, I really do struggle to believe in Luke Getsky, but I don't know. These two instances are pretty strong, I think. Yeah, I, I agree. I mean, I thought at the time too, it was very clear. Like we know what Minnesota does. We know how Fields has played under pressure and it feels like for all of his flaws, they've actually been pretty aggressive with him in terms of average depth of target. Typically, you know, he's a little bit aggressive downfield. You know, he holds the ball too long and that's, you know, part of his flaws as well but getting the ball out quick uh in the playmakers hands I thought I agree I saw the same way that

was a really good point so you know assumption of rational coaching continuing is different again the thing that's really weird to me here too is like last year the Lions were such a man heavy team and they've shifted a little bit more and they're playing a lot more Zone this year and the fact that that's kind of continuing with the rush angle means like they probably have an angle here that maybe supersedes just straight up you know man's own tendencies so yeah uh good points there uh i also like a point that you made here clark for the next game uh the falcons and bucks we get tampa bay on the road in atlanta no real market movement here since it opened falcons two and a half point home favorite total out there 39 39 and a half again we're in a dome so no weather here uh comparatively to a lot of the other stuff here falcons currently

the uh nfc south favorite they are minus 190 on fan duel tampa bay new orleans behind them about three and a half four to one no real like rest of the season schedule advantage here because they all have incredibly soft schedules they are the three easiest schedules remaining in the NFC. They play each other. They're all kind of garbage and they all benefit from that theoretically as well. We're basically arguing here who's like, who gets to be a 10 point home dog in the playoffs to Dallas. Right now it looks like the Falcons are the leader in the clubhouse here, but Clark, I know you're already on this one. You made a play. Floor's yours on Bucs and Falcons. First of all, I got breaking news for you, Newnan. It looks like someone just hit the Bucs. So it's down to one, one and a half for the

Falcons. But I'm not interested in the side on this one right now. I'm still shooting for the middle on the Falcons. I have over seven and a half wins, under eight and a half wins. So if they can end at exactly eight, I'm much heavier on the over seven and a half. So if they fly over, that's fine. But if they get eight, great. As for the game, I think there's value on the over here still. You know, open 39, we've seen some little push towards 39 and a half. Some spots, I think, moved to 40 within the last couple of hours,

but you can still get 39, 39 and a half. And I would bet the over sooner than later, because I do think it will close 40 or higher. The reasoning is that both of these defenses are pretty terrible in their current state. And then Bucs, I say this every week, the Bucs defense sucks. It's one of my worst ranked defenses in the league. Last week, they started the game without two starting linebackers.

They lost another one in game. And then I think their fourth string was also out pregamegame so it was like they they had to shift the defensive scheme they were even running to kind of a heavy safety look just to fit bodies on the field maybe some of those guys come back uh kind of a mixed practice report today you can't really glean much from wednesday but even if they're playing it you know how how full strength are they going to be jamal dean missed last week um but even healthy, they weren't that good. And last time these teams played, when they had a healthy defense, the Falcons, you know, together they got 41 first downs,

730 total yards. The Falcons averaged 6.3 yards per play. The Bucs averaged 5.1 yards per play. It was a low-scoring game, but that was because it was one for seven combined in the red zone. And I don't think this was like they just, you know, were unsuccessful on down after down at the goal line because the offense sucked. It was like, you know, Desmond Ritter reaching for the pylon, the ball slips out of his hand

and you get the stupid touchback rule, things like that, that are just not indicative of defenses winning, but just sort of weird scoring quirks. So I think this is a matchup where both offenses can win. On know, on the Atlanta side, uh, AJ Terrell went down with a concussion last week. So he's unlikely to play this week. Grady Jarrett is now out of the lineup for the rest of the year. He was in the game for the first matchup. So, uh, what was a fairly decent offensive showing in the first game should be an even better offensive showing. And I, lastly, I just liked Desmond Ritter and Baker Mayfield more than the market does. I think they're both doing an okay job and they get a lot of slander, but they're,

they're holding their offense. They're doing what they need to do. And they're making throws that they're not getting credit for because they also make a lot of mistakes. But for an overplay, it's not the end of the world if they make mistakes, sometimes turnovers can actually help an over. So this is just a low number when i think it should be 40 or higher yeah two turnovers inside the red zone or inside the five uh in this last game this last meeting for the falcons so it could have been a very very very different contest uh connor any thoughts on uh on this one no not much more that was the kind of angle i was looking at here too i mean baker mayfield threw the ball 42 times last time around the Falcons run defense has actually been pretty strong. And I think that actually

only helps like scoring in the over because running the ball with Rashad white, it's been efficient lately, but, um, you know, just like the historically, like he's, I just don't think still don't believe in that running game. So I think that that could create some interesting movement there. Um, and Atlanta on the ground should have some success, even though Tampa Bay's run defense is solid or, you know, I guess around average, a little bit above average. But if you force Atlanta to pass the ball, I think that they'll have a ton of success, you know, and like in passing situations, I think that they'll actually be able to play pretty well. I mean, we saw Kyle Pitts get going a little bit last week. Drake London didn't really do a whole

lot, but I think that he's, you know, very viable in this spot. As you mentioned, this Tampa Bay defense is not very good. So yeah, like even accidentally when Arthur Smith doesn't want to do the right thing, I think that they'll probably have success offensively. So my lean to be on the Falcons at one and a half at home as well as the over here. Yeah. Any thoughts on, I mean, Tampa's kind of in that teaser range, Clark. Any interest on that? No, I don't think so. I think if Atlanta can run the ball, which they, I mean, Carolina ran the ball against them, and that's saying a lot about how bad

this run defense is right now for the Bucs, then the Falcons can be sort of like, you know, move the ball up and down the field and score a will on this defense, which is not the situation I want to have for a teaser. Although the Bucs have played really aggressively when they have a deficit. So, you know, if you can get to seven and a half still, I don't hate it. But I don't think I'm looking to play it.

When I'm building out like tackle projections, I don't take guys off. I keep them on because I want some of their data for next year or two in terms of like their tackle rain stuff i get to a point now where like the guys that have tb next to their name i'd like scroll massively down and all these dudes are like i gotta add this new guy who was kj britt uh and like they've like jj russell i didn't even know these were real people uh until a couple of weeks ago i gotta put them on the sheet because like they're playing 90% of snaps because they've they're so decimated defensively with the same thing like their secondary they've had so many guys in and out the season because you know both Carlton Davis and Jamal Dean can never stay healthy ever I was part of my handicap coming in the season like they're super

thin in the back half they're two good players on paper never play more than 13 games that's gonna continue this year They're both out all the time. So yeah, still on the Falcons here because I'm still pulling for my Bucs season long under here. So go Falcons. All right. A couple of good games here this week. Next, Buffalo is on the road in Kansas City. Bills continue to take some money here.

He's lined open with the Chiefs as three-point home favorites. Those threes were gone quickly on Monday morning. We moved to KC minus two and a half, and the Bills money has not really stopped at all. For the most part, we are now at minus one and a half. Not massive movement, but once we close through the three, I think that's pretty impactful and people are still backing the bills here. Total as well. We're up through some key numbers. 47 is where we were at.

Now we're basically 40 and a half for the most part here. You know, Kansas city coming off of obviously a public loss there on Sunday night when the bill's coming off of the buy here, Connor thoughts on bills chiefs. Yeah, I'm excited for this one. I did take a little piece of the over at 47 and a half. I mean, usually the process and cadence is like I prep for the show on Tuesdays, bet everything that I like, and then we'll go here and then I usually check back in. So this is moved by a full point and a half. It looks like in most spots and it seems like the market agrees with me, which is

always a good sign here. And I think that Clark and I probably disagree on this, but even with the bills, even it's getting healthier, I still don't think that they and I probably disagree on this, but even with the Bills even getting healthier, I still don't think that they're all that good. Daquan Jones, Matt Milano, Trey White, since they went down in week five, Bills defense 26 in EPA per play, 25th against the pass. This is despite facing off against the Giants, Jets, Patriots, and Bucs for half of those games. Now they're getting Kansas City offense, which I think is not played particularly well,

but I think a lot of it's been uneven and that some of the box scores are, uh, you know, not really telling of what happened in the end. I think they could have scored plenty against the Eagles. Um, you know, just again, didn't shake their way to two red zone turnovers, a drop all by MBS has them looking like they stunk, but in reality, I don't think that they played that, that bad. Uh, and then the chiefs defense, you defense, their metrics look good. They played well for most of the year. And then Aiden O'Connell just put a clinic on them. And they haven't really been playing as well as they were previously.

And I think this Bills offense has been absolutely cooking since Joe Brady's at offensive coordinator, 32 and 34 points against the Eagles and Jets. We talked about them exploiting this Eagles defense deep downfield. They did exactly that. We talked about them beating the Jets over the middle. They did that for the majority of the game against the Jets, tough Jets defense. So they're doing what I think is optimal and what it seems like is optimal here.

So, you know, I'm confident that they keep doing that here. And I'm not sure that that's quite as clear, but I'm pretty confident that Joe Brady is a sharp guy there. So I guess my only last take here would be that it looks like they were blitzing a lot here against Josh Allen, Chiefs defense, with Steve Spagnuolo. And they're blitzing over 30% of the time. Josh Allen in these games against him over the last two years, completing less than 50% of his passes for 4.9 yards per attempt. So we could see a lot of blitzing here from the Chiefs on that side. I'm interested to see like how the Bills

kind of counteract that. But yeah, my lean would be the over still at the current price. And if I had to take a side, it would probably be the Chiefs at minus one and a half. But I think it's pretty close to be honest. I think the Bills games are probably as hard as any of the handicap

just because you have like Superman involved and like he can put them on his back and he tried to against Philly and it was almost enough. But I just think anything you look at statistically without watching games, you're just looking at them from a high level. They're obviously going to pop offensively.

They are an offensive juggernaut and we've had poorly timed turnovers, injuries, as you mentioned, Connor, defensively. It's a really hard team to handicap. Clark, I'd love to hear your thoughts. had poorly timed turnovers, injuries, as you mentioned, Connor, defensively, like they just, it's a really hard team to handicap. Clark, I'd love to hear your thoughts. Yeah, I, the first of two absolute treats of a game this week, hopefully. I would love to bet on the Bills. I, plus three was a good bet. I got some of that at open, but it wasn't really widely available. And then it moved pretty quick, but but under the three i just can't get there with my numbers i would love to like just for narrative reasons for you know afc playoff field potential reasons uh just seeing the bills in the playoffs would be huge but um

but my numbers make the chiefs favorites here at home and so it's a no play for me i don't see any value under the three i i do think it's sad that if you could have a live ticker on MVP odds as the games are going on, when the Eagles kicker makes his field goal, Jalen Hurts' MVP chances go up, which is completely just not how it should work. Josh Allen outplayed Jalen Hurts in that game. But anyway, that's a tangent. I think the Bills are hungry for a win coming off a bye. They're in a good place. I was very concerned with the Chiefs defense against the Packers. I mean, it was easy for Green Bay to move the ball throughout the game. That's not a good sign. And it's not like a defense where we have years of evidence that this is a stout defense. This is

a defense that has been playing above its weight class all year. And so when you see a couple games like this, like you said, first half against Aiden O'Connell didn't look particularly strong, really bad game against Jordan Love. It does cause some concerns in terms of how much should we be regressing this Chiefs defensive projections moving forward. So there's an open question there that the Bills can certainly take advantage of with one of the best offenses in the league. So I hope the bills win. I think they probably, you know, they have a good shot, but it's not something that we're going to get involved in at current prices. Yeah. Someone who has no problem caping up for middle linebackers. I think the drew tranquil injury early in that game was very, very impactful.

Tranquil is their like a signal caller defensively. And he's one of the better coverage linebackers in the league. And I had another name to list that I had no idea. I thought maybe Willie Gay would get more snaps. Jack Conkrin came in and played 90% of the snaps for the Chiefs. I thought that was the guy who sang like the original version of life is a highway. I didn't know that that was like an actual middle linebacker in the NFL. Now Nick Bolton has been taken off of like his 21 day window is open. So we might get Nick Bolton back for the chiefs.

I think that is really impactful because we still have tranquil in concussion protocol. He'll probably be out here, but I think that really, really mattered in terms of like stabilizing the defense like you know craft the rookie tight end was very involved for the Packers um you know that's somewhere that like would tranquil off the field I think they were able to kind of like pick on conquering coverage there so I think that there were some key injuries in that game that impacted that but yeah I mean I was Brian Cook also was huge I mean correct yeah it's a huge defense that's dealing with some injuries yeah so mike edwards had to slide in they've been using

mike edwards a lot it's a third safety uh so that like changed the dynamic of what they had to do they had to play more um you know some of their other linebackers that put more linebackers on the field versus safeties instead of having to go two three linebackers instead of you know three safeties i think impacted things there. So interesting to see if they get Bolton back. I think that matters quite a bit for this matchup. Yeah. And I agree with the money Connor. I thought that 47 and a half was a good bet on the over,

but that's been steamed up to 48 and a half, not 49. I think the value has kind of gone there too. Yeah. It was a good early look. All right. Another good one Sunday nights, uh which is good because we get some other i mean we touched on the thursday night game uh we get two stinkers on monday night i don't know why we have two monday night games um but yeah we have a couple stinkers so sunday night is nice uh it is philly in dallas uh another terrible situational spot for the eagles they're coming off a second half curve stomping at the hands of the Niners, the link.

Now they have traveled to Dallas, who has 10 days of rest. They played at home on Thursday night. So not just the 10 days of rest, but like Dallas stays at home. But again, it does feel like that's now currently baked into the number. I don't think there's a ton of value on that based off of what has happened in the market here. Moving through some key numbers, because we basically are at 2.5 at open. The Cowboys have been, for the most part, through 3 in most spots. Even on FanDuel here, we're 3.5 plus money, minus 3.5 plus 100 on Dallas.

You can get minus 120 on the Eagles here. Again, the over has been popular as well. We're in a controlled environment, which isn't what we're having a lot. And to see a total into the 50s, considering what else is on the slate this week, it feels really weird. We were up from 49 and a half at open through 51,

which is a key number. Now, basically 51 and a half, 52 is on the board here. Connor, any thoughts on Eagles and Dallas? Man, I would have loved to have grabbed a minus three here for Dallas because, I mean, this is just – it's kind of similar to what we were saying last week where this Eagles team was just running through a gauntlet, playing – played a really tough game against Buffalo, and then now comes in and then just gets the absolute shit kicked out of them

by a great 49ers team. I mean, it just doesn't get any easier here. Now they have to go and play against Dallas and Dallas on the road. Dallas's offense has been performing at a level that they're pushing the ball downfield. They're passing like way, way above expectation. And that is like, in my mind, exactly lines up with how you beat the Eagles and like really take advantage of this. Like, as you just like exploit their secondary. And that's exactly what I think Dallas is going to do here. So you have that angle. And then defensively, like this Eagles offense has just been really hit or miss in a lot of ways.

Like it's, you know, it took them a half to figure it out against Buffalo and then they scored 37 points. And so, you know, it's just like really random, you know, in and out here for this Eagles offense. And I think that against a Dallas defense that I wouldn't like, I'm struggling with this one because I think they're, they're definitely good. But at this point I would describe them almost as more like opportunistic instead of like being like a consistent defense.

Cause they get sacks, they get pressure, like a Parsons, like they can wreak havoc, but from like a play to play basis, like teams have exploited them certain times. So I don't know if that's what you guys have seen as well. But, um, I, you know, again, I I'm hoping praying maybe I can get a Dallas minus three. It seems like a pipe dream. Um, it looks like Circa has a minus one 20, but I'm not sure I'm, uh, would be into that. So Clark, I'm curious in your thoughts though. And like, especially the Dallas defense, cause I'm, I'm just kind of struggling with them because their metrics are good, but like, I don't know, I'm, I'm still not sure yet. I'm going to do for the first time all year,

probably for the first time since, I don't know, deep into last year. I am on the Eagles this week. I am. I am. This is one of my favorite plays of the week. The Eagles, you said it doesn't get any easier for the Eagles here. It gets way easier for the Eagles here. The 49ers and Cowboys are not the same caliber of team.

The 49ers absolutely trounced the Cowboys too. There's a level of difference here. The 49ers and Cowboys are not the same caliber of team. The 49ers absolutely trounced the Cowboys too. There's a level of difference here. And I think psychologically what's happening here is it's easy for us as football fans and bettors to see an outlier game and say, well, you know, that was against this really bad offense or whatever. Like you have a really good matchup. They played really well. And you can be like, well, we'll see what that looks like. But we have a hard time recognizing when that happens in back to back to back to back weeks, because our memories latch on to what we've seen most recently. And I'm just going to give you the opponents that the Eagles have faced in the last four games, 49ers, Chiefs, Bills, and Cowboys. That's arguably the four best non-Eagles teams in the NFL and definitely four of the top six.

Whereas the Cowboys last four games have come against Seattle, Washington, Carolina, and the Giants. And you talk about the Cowboys defense being exploited this season. They played the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, Patriots, 49ers, Trounston, Chargers, Rams, Stafford got hurt pretty early. Eagles, Eagles scored a bunch on them Giants Panthers Commanders and Seahawks basically anytime they've faced an offense with downfield weapons those downfield weapons have just destroyed the secondary it's it's a Cowboys secondary that is weaker without Trayvon Diggs but they've covered it up by playing bad teams and being opportunistic like you said so I think this is a fine matchup for the Eagles. And to me, these teams are equal. And so the idea of getting over a field goal, even in Dallas, is a gift. So I think if you can get three and for surgery today, for appendicitis,

I don't know how that's going to disrupt the practice schedule, the game planning. It may have no impact, maybe nothing. But if it does have an impact, it might be one of those things that the first 15 plays may not be as crisp. He is the offensive play caller. But really, it's just a matter of I want any exposure to the Eagles. And so if that's split between first half and full game, that's fine. This is an Eagles offense that is even better than my metrics.

Like the reason I always find value against them is because I don't capture all the things they do well, very, very well. So when I actually do capture value on them in my numbers, that is a big sign. So this is a huge buy signal on the Eagles this week. I think this is going to be a tight game. The Eagles can win outright. Cowboys, you know, I kind of hope the Cowboys win because I want my 49ers future position to get better.

And that would rely on the Eagles losing this game potentially. But if I can get, you know, plus three and a half, like I said, that covers a lot of outcomes that are winners for the Eagles spread betters. Very strong pro Eagles pivot from Clark here from clark here and measured i don't necessarily disagree i just i think like situationally it's been tough because it is the fourth game of this like gauntlet schedule that you mentioned and then another just like last week against the niners it's kind of another like rest disadvantage because the the niners

coming off of you know 10 days rest similar spot here this time the cowboys didn't even have to leave home so it's you know it's definitely a an interesting spot because like you lined up like is similar like the dolphins in the AFC they have to answer the question is can you actually do this against better opponents because they both have been making their hay against really bad teams like you hang 40 on anyone in the NFL it's impressive they've done it four straight times at home uh but like you said there are two losses came against the niners and the eagles um you know when you whooped in the rams giants panthers commanders and seahawks okay their nfl teams is i'm glad you did it you've won in dominant fashion but you you have to answer this this test a little bit so i think it is

massively important and interesting and to your point like you're getting a three and a half that is there's probably some value now i don't have any interest in taking it but i understand massively important and interesting. And to your point, like you're getting a three and a half. That is, there's probably some value. Now I don't have any interest in taking it, but I understand why you do and why you would. And I don't have any interest necessarily in Dallas at three and a half either, but do you have any interest to Clark in the total, even though we've now kind of moved in through, through some key numbers now, you know, now we're basically looking to get to like 54 in terms of our score and that's a little bit rich. Yeah, no, I'm not looking to play over on such a big total, but I think both offenses should be successful.

Like if I lose my Eagles bets, it's because Dak Prescott and this Cowboys offense at home was just workman like and executed well and avoided drops and converted third downs. And if that happens, this game probably goes over just like it did last time. So not, not a bet, not a total. I'm looking to play your side off. This like when we were doing prepping for the show this is at the highs like 53 53 and a half it's down to 51 and a half i'm a little bit more interested at that point i mean like this is which is crazy because given like how we've seen

the league progress like this is one of the highest totals we've seen in in a while and we used to be getting three four a week that we're 51 and a half you know like i don't know maybe i'm just becoming an old complaining about the you know the new league and everything but it's just sad you know it's like we got 29 point totals and 150 point total ouch yeah we got a bunch of stuff at like 39 like 40 and a half this week so 52 kind of kind. And like, you know, because of the way things are going now too, teams more aggressive, two pointers, all those different things. Like the key numbers, when we get up into that range, it gets a little trickier as well in terms of distribution of scores.

So, you know, so it's harder to say their specific key numbers. But, you know, 51 and a half, you're still, to me, kind of in a dead range. You're still kind of having to get to a little bit of a higher number in terms of where we typically land so yeah interesting interesting game uh yeah like two and a half at open would have been interesting but um you know i i want clark to be right on the eagles you know he took his conviction here he's he's switched he's open uh you know i wanted clark to to bring an eagles win home i think it'd be be good for

the discord which is not used to seeing clark push to bring an eagles win home i think it'd be be good for the discord which is not used to seeing clark push out positive eagles place everyone's kind of caught off guard you know yeah a couple pushing like high level overs yeah i think a couple things are important to note one is like to be successful betting you have to be completely liquid like things change evidence change data changes the market changes and you have to be willing to like i don't have no bias towards any team like all these eagles fans like you just you just hate things change, evidence change, data changes, the market changes, and you have to be willing to, like, I don't have no bias towards any team, like all these Eagles fans, like you just hate the Eagles. I don't hate any team. I'm trying to find value. And sometimes, you know, I see value on a side for several consecutive weeks, that just happens. And the second thing is, historically,

when this has happened, when my numbers have seen an inversion relative to the market, it's typically been a huge signal that has led to successful results because oftentimes what's happening is there's something that the market is overreacting to that I'm not seeing on the field. And I think that's the case here is, is the Eagles have played an absolute gauntlet for straight weeks. The offense has missed Dallas Goddard. You know,

Jalen hurts has been kind of in and out of the lineup in some spots. You know, they, they have two long drives to start that game against the 49ers, the end in field goals that changes the kind of trajectory of the game, I think if those if they get in the end zone on those on those plays. And I think people are overreacting to the absolute trouncing that they took at the hands of a superior team. But that wasn't about the Eagles being frauds. That was about the 49ers being a dominant team and playing, you know, out of their minds. So I think the Eagles are still a very good team and competitive and the

Cowboys are just on their level. Yeah, that's a good point. All right. What else is on the board for week 14 for you guys? The Texans Jets game is for each thing. I don't know if either of you have any, it's been getting bets, right? Like, so we, we had sixes yesterday and now we have we're three and a half across the board um with the i don't know were we optimistic suddenly did everyone forget what happened when zach wilson was the quarterback was like tim boyle was that bad like

where were we at clark yeah yeah tim was that bad i i pushed plus six through the discord um yesterday it was yesterday or month, maybe it was Monday. No, it was yesterday. And the money has just continued to flow in on the Jets. And I love to see it. And I think it's justified. I make this about three and it's getting there. With Zach Wilson, people's narrative of this game is that the Jets quarterbacks are all ass.

And that is not the correct takeaway. The correct takeaway is, oh. It's not wrong, though. They're varying levels of ass. It is wrong the correct takeaway the correct takeaway is oh not it's not wrong though they're varying levels of that it is wrong it is wrong Zach Wilson is not materially worse than any other replacement level quarterback the fact is the Jets offense is so terrible that any replacement level quarterback is going to suck in that offense any of the backups that are succeeding in other spots would suck in this Jets offense the The only quarterbacks who would be successful in this offense are the really, really good quarterbacks.

So it's unfair to say that, well, you know, it doesn't matter who's that quarterback. This team sucks. Zach Wilson at least has mobility, at least throws downfield, keeps his eyes downfield, takes too many sacks, makes mistakes. Obviously, he's a bust at the draft pick, the draft capital that they used on him. Obviously, he's not a long-term starter by any stretch on any team,

but he is a material upgrade of what's in boy was putting out there. And for them to announce Zach Wilson, the starters is hugely bullish for the jets. Uh, of course, most of the, the angle is the jets defense against the Texans and, uh, the weather potential, uh, Texans without, you know, tank Dell and, and, uh, Titus Howard that matters. So just met Jonathan Grenard and will anderson jr sacks in this game um and save yourself the headache of sweating the three and a half at this point if you didn't get the six that clark's talking about because um they both probably get a sack uh they'll probably be plus money and uh zach wilson like loves sacks like they are his mom's

best friends i just absolutely loves them. So, uh, take a look for those lines. He's hungry to play. Noonan he's hungry. I think that is just like the biggest load of horse I've ever heard in my entire life. Like that whole charade, it was just outrageously bad. It was like a literally, it was like, I mean, I don't blame him for telling anyone that I don't want to play because I'm just going to get the shit kicked out of me behind a bad offensive line and a bad system. I don't doubt that he actually said that. And then now Robert Salah's coming out saying, oh, he's fired up. It's just like all like this whole clown show that they got going on there. And so I dug into

the numbers. Tim Boyle was definitely worse than Zach Wilson, just as we talked about previously. It was like 45 quarterbacks have taken 75 or more dropbacks. Tim Boyle was 44th in yards per attempt, 44th in interception rate, and I think 38th in sack rate. Zach Wilson was like high 30s in yards per attempt. So he's better, but I don't know. I think my definition of, quote, ass is probably 35th, maybe like bottom 10 among all

quarterbacks who think 75 plus drop back. So I would probably still have him, you know, in that, in that range. Um, definitely not good, but to Clark's point, I think you're definitely right that like everyone would fail in this offense for the most part, but that doesn't mean that he's still not horrible. And so, but I, I, I thought you were very brave for taking the plus six and this has moved with you also big weather concerns here. So this is pouring rain not a ton of wind but like a ton of rain um so i think this game is going to be ugly so getting the six here it looks really really nice in hindsight yeah i think there's also like this expectation that the jets defense is suddenly gonna start sucking because they're like tired

of playing well when the offense is playing poorly because that happened at Denver last year that's not like some kind of predictable angle like people that are waiting on that are being disappointed every week because this just defense is playing out its mind um we haven't you know CJ Stroud has actually been a bit susceptible to the quality of defenses he's played against so I think in the weather on the road against an elite defense, like there's no reason to expect the Texans to just, you know, move the ball at will against the jets. It's going to be, if the Texans cover,

it's going to have to be like a 17 three type game where, where the Texans just, you know, no sweat because the jets never threatened them. And I'm just hoping that Zach Wilson can, can deliver a little bit. We've got Jeff in the chat. Psychopath, absolutely love it, who hangs out and bets weird stuff with us on the prop show on Friday. Greg the Leg, Jets kicker, over one and a half field goals made last week.

Yes, he had two field goals. Sounds like a tougher spot, Jeff. Be interested to see where your uh kicker props are on friday i absolutely love people betting random niche markets like that so uh we appreciate all that stuff and uh yeah people need to follow your kicker props because i know they've been they've been hitting at a pretty high rate so we need to uh maybe not go to the well this week and maybe it's gonna be a half if the weather looks like what connor is telling us i don't know that I want to be betting volume, uh,

kicker props in the rain, but we'll have to wait and see anything else. Jump out to you guys in terms of a week 14 looks on the board. Uh, Indy since he over got some steam here, I know hit man. And I think some other groups played it. I grabbed some 41.

I think so. Like there's this game is going to have so much volume. The Bengals have been like running a crazy amount of plays. Jake Browning has played surprisingly well for two games. Cincy D is still beat up. Bengals' defense is horrible in a lot of ways. I think the over there is kind of sneaky hot for this game because we're just going to see massive play volume.

Yeah. All of Colts' games have been play volume and overs for the most part, which has been pretty consistent. So that one's interesting. The Jacksonville-Cleveland game is interesting to me as well to see the backup quarterback battle. I don't really know what to make of that one as well, but it's another one of those very, very low scores.

Over continues to plummet. It's Cleveland in December. We're definitely going to have weather there as well. So that one's interesting. Yeah, but nothing else jumps out to me everything else we've kind of captured on the show all right uh we appreciate everyone hanging out with us uh you know before you leave the chat don't forget to subscribe hit us with a thumbs up again we appreciate you uh hanging out with us here come back on friday uh at 3 p.m eastern for the prop drop show connor myself and high slop will dig into more props for the week.

Again, look at the show notes here, 444.com slash plans. You want to get in on some of the stuff that Clark is putting out early on Sunday nights, Monday mornings. You want to be a part of that line movement. There haven't been many times, and again, you cannot pay your bills with closing line value. Not very many times that Clark is on the wrong side of closing line value. He's been on the right side of it. And that typically over the course of time leads to winning plays. So it's definitely a place that you want to be. I know people will tell you that CLV doesn't matter. Those people probably don't get CLV. I just don't understand

how you think that that doesn't matter at all. and uh clark is uh is printing that out so the winds are going to continue to just windfall in here for the next uh oh we got probably like eight weeks nine weeks left we got super bowl playoffs lots of time four four dot com slash plans get the betting sub and come hang out with us so Appreciate it. For Connor, Clark, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks, everybody.