Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 15 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: December 11, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 15! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 15 betting guide, and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow Dean on Twitter 👉🏼    / deansisun  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by DraftKings Sportsbook Ryan Newton joins here as always for week 15 my friend Connor Allen what's going on buddy yeah not a whole lot it's uh finally came back down to earth a little bit with my official plays last week while you I think just absolutely curb stomped the slate uh it was awesome to see i know people were cashing like all longest parlays and the longest round robins and uh it is awesome i love to see it um but it's just great it's like anytime any of us have like even a tiny bad week someone else in our group crushes it and we balance each other out and everyone still makes money so love to see that.

So we're in the end, right? For subscribers, I mean, obviously we all doing this for ourselves as well. We want to make money. We put down the money, the plays that we're playing. We're playing that and then some. So we obviously want to be profitable, but it's obviously great to see the subscribers in the chat make a ton of money. And yeah, you've been carrying the water for this duo this duo all season luckily we're not just a duo now we do have an expanded uh team and that helps quite a bit so yeah i was happy to pull my weight finally for uh for a little bit so felt good to

go eight no clean the board and then uh i think we're having some fun with the longest uh plays there's actually been a bunch of official plays. And I got a little greedy week before. I think six or seven on a parlay. Cut it down to five legs this week. Didn't count any of the official longest plays in there, too, because I didn't want to die twice. And we hit a nice little 21-to-1 parlay as well. So it was a nice, definitely my most profitable week of the year.

So it feels good. You know, hit the ground running in December. And we're going to keep it going. We're on the other side of the buys,nor everyone's played i think you know contextualizing things now to getting forward this is the meat and potatoes of the season this is when the rubber meets the road four games left for all these teams playoff pitchers kind of taking shape we're going to dig into that here a little bit today we're going to touch on some futures at the top excited in the middle of the show to be joined by the one the co-founders and the CEO of ProfitX,

who you've been seeing us talk about that a little bit more. Dean Susan is going to be jumping in here in the middle of the show. So if you're watching on YouTube or listening to podcasts, someone jumps in randomly in the middle. That is going to be Dean from ProfitX. We're going to talk a little bit more about betting exchanges um their unique place in the marketplace and really why we think that they're uh something that you need to consider especially if you're betting sides and totals so stick around for that here shortly so again two episodes move line each week this is more you know games football overview prop drop on friday 3 p.m eastern on the four four bets

youtube channel move the line wherever you listen to podcasts so come back if you want to get uh the uh picks and parlays and uh milli parlays and stuff that we're gonna be doing with high slop there on friday afternoon um yeah we're touching more on profit x here but let's jump into it connor before we get into stuff with dean. I think we need to be having these future conversations as we get closer to the season, because I think, you know, these are when the decisions get made. This is when the narratives get stronger. This is when you have MVP type moments, type performances. These markets can move quite a bit. We have some pretty strong chalk out there.

So let's just leave the conversation wherever you want to take it. Player related, Superbowl related. I think the, you know, the, to make the playoffs stuff is kind of dried up because even though we have four weeks left,

those are kind of narrowing markets, but take it wherever you want to go. Yeah, I guess we can start at the top with like MVP and Superbowl. I think makes sense here. Cause they're kind of tied together. We have right now Josh Allen minus 400 to win MVP, which is really interesting considering he lost last week. He went from like minus 250 to minus 400, but just played so well, threw for three touchdowns, ran for three touchdowns.

I mean, it was like a true MVP moment if they somehow won the game. They obviously did not, which matters to an extent. But I think Bills plus 700 to win the Super Bowl is also interesting as well. a true MVP moment if they somehow won the game. They obviously did not, which matters to an extent, but I think Bills plus 700 to win the Super Bowl is also interesting as well. I mean, I think that they're equal or as good as basically every other team this week or this year. And I mean, you're getting seven to one. Obviously, they would have to go through Kansas City, which at this point seems like almost a certainty at this point. So I think those are a little bit related. I don't know if I would love to play minus 400 on an MVP candidate, but when you go through the scenarios here,

how does anyone else win? That's what I want to ask you. That was my only MVP question was like, talk me through scenarios where it's not Josh Allen now. I think it gets harder to do that. Yeah, and so I guess my only scenario is this week, and I've been pushing back against this all year, like Jared Goff throws for 404 touchdowns and Josh Allen loses and doesn't really play all that well. Um, I don't really see that as super likely. Um, and, but I mean,

you're in like 13 to one, I think 17 to one on fan duel was at one point. And so it's, And so it's tough, though, for me to envision too many scenarios because even if he does lose, he probably just, again, curb stomps teams the last three games and then probably just climbs back up to being the MVP favorite because no one else is really worthy this year, it seems like. In that scenario, I do think you probably see Josh get shorter and you see Goff get shorter. I mean, he gets a little yeah i mean so

you probably becomes minus 200 and you see golf get down to like five to one or maybe where saquon is right that's kind of the only thing that could possibly happen i don't see right i don't think you're gonna see the flippening that we saw last year with like brock purdy right and that that like game against the ravens late in the season so um we've kind of been poo-pooing Patrick Mahomes the entire time. I think it's still definitely unlikely. We have a quarterback, arguably one of the best of all time, who is currently in a one-loss season, who is 40-1 in some shops to win the MVP.

Actually, basically across the board. What's the path for mahomes at this point obviously it's not a statistically like mahomesian season you know this like winning by two points against all of your divisional opponents at home thing is kind of wild um but there needs to probably be and maybe i'm wrong about this. They, you would think as 16 and one chiefs team, who's a defending super bowl champs probably need to be represented somewhere in the awards market. Not necessarily, but you know, there's only so many of them,

but like should Mahomes be 40 at this point? Probably not 40. I feel like, you know, we talk about like LCLV, which is like losing closing line value. Oh, love it. Like, I feel like golf probably qualifies as that. Like you mentioned, like he's going to get shorter.

I think that, I think same with my homes, like say my homes wins out, probably closes. Like, I don't know, again, 10 to one,

eight to one, seven to one. So yeah, you got into 40, you're buying down to that. But like what scenarios he has to win out, Josh Allen, probably have to lose two games.

Golf would have to continue running the ball. And Lamar, maybe he has to win out. Josh Allen probably have to lose two games. Golf would have to continue running the ball and Lamar, maybe he has another hiccup. And then at that point where they're like, well, I guess there's 16 and one, we don't have anyone else to vote for. So I guess moms. And even then I bet some voters would be like, no, you know, Josh Allen stats or, you know, Lamar Jackson stats or maybe somehow Saquon in that scenario, you know,

again, like if, if for some reason he keeps, or if he keeps crushing down the stretch so yeah I I mean I've made worse bets at 40 to 1 like you're probably gonna get value on it but does it really have a chance of winning I don't know I think that's like just such a slim narrow path I think at this point yeah it's fair it just jumps off the screen you look at it you, man, they have lost one time again to the Bills. And we don't think that like they're necessarily the juggernaut that a one loss team Josh Allen, and they have two more losses. I guess they won head-to-head. Scheduled down the stretch, though, I mean, on the other side of this Lions game this week, it's the Jets and the Pats twice, right? So Josh Allen doesn't really have any tests behind him.

This is kind of it. So it does feel like a pretty important week for the MVP market. If Goff is going to get in the mix, he does have the Chicago game on deck. It's getting colder in Chicago. So we are going to have the golf test that you called out in the summer. It's like, Hey, that week 16 game in Chicago for golf and company, though, that, you know, bears past defenses, not where it was early in the season, either softening up a little bit. So yeah, it'd be interesting to see what happens there. But I kind of do think it is those three kind of. I mean, Lamar is definitely in the mix still.

But, you know, anything behind it. Sam Darnold, probably too long, but in the sense of, like, the LCLV model that you're talking about, not an actual true winner. Unless they go out, like, their schedule is pretty tough, actually, down the stretch because they have Chicago this week, but then at seattle green bay at detroit that detroit game and we could team could matter for both of those teams um so it's a scenario where all of a sudden if that does matter and they basically go 15 and 2 and they win the division um that could be really really interesting now does that still make him a better case than Josh Allen?

Maybe not. Again, it could be a scenario where your 60 ticket on Darnold gets down to 15 and you have that warm CLV, but not an actual winner. Yeah, I also agree with you on the Bills 7-1 to win the Super Bowl. It feels like a fairly solid price comparatively considering that i don't think that they're way worse than really i can't really say with confidence that any of these teams above them are better so you're getting the longest odds basically of that top four group uh maybe a gap between the ravens and vikings and packers

that are kind of next on the board but i'm with you seven to one on draft kings for the bills i think is pretty interesting in the super bowl market this late in the year. Right. When we know kind of what these teams are. Right. I think that now it's pretty interesting. Yeah. I'm into it.

I think that's so kind of the only one in the super bowl market that, that really stood out to me specifically. I mean, unless you're trying to get a little crazy down the board with your team, Seattle there, who I think could make the playoffs. I mean, 65 to one, I don't know if they're real superbowl contender, but like, could they make the playoffs?

Could they win a game? Sure. You know, you can definitely convince me of that. I'm not sure that they can go toe to toe with anyone else in the NFC in terms of like Philly, Detroit. I mean, even any of the NFC North teams really for the most part, um, that's where I kind of struggle. So I guess, you know, again, value maybe because they're going to make playoffs, but I would prefer to go with them to coach of the year. If we want to move to that market real quick, Mike McDonald, 20 to one to me is really surprising because we talk about this every year. It's like, it's a lot of this award is more about expectations or performance relative to expectations, not necessarily just like total output. So obviously Dan Campbell crushing right now, minus one 40 in the market,

Kevin O'Connell, the Vikings have greatly outperformed expectations as well. But you have a Seattle team that was projected to come in third or fourth third, I believe by the preseason odds now winning their division. And I mean, it definitely, I mean, they're game up. They're able to probably win this division 20 to one for a guy like Mike McDonald, I think is pretty interesting if they can pull it out. And I think that they can. I mean, I don't think it's like a crazy, crazy path,

but like there's a lot of good candidates this year, which makes me kind of, I don't know, stutter a little bit here. Yeah, I think it is the best value on the board comparatively. And, you know that to your point earlier about the playoffs even with them like we're going to kind of get some of those answers here in the coming weeks because their next couple games are against the nfc north they have they host green bay minnesota the next two weeks uh then they were on the road chicago before

on the road against the rams to wrap up in game that could matter, depending on what happens in the next couple of weeks. But yeah, I mean, look, all the things that we thought, or definitely, yeah, you were pro-Seattle as well. I had been, obviously I was banging the drum, especially for what I thought would happen defensively, has started to happen. Part of it was the cluster injuries they went through early in the season. Now they're kind of on the other side of it. The Ernest Jones trade, I think, was fantastic.

Getting Tyrese Knight in there. but that run defense was terrible i know people would tell you you know linebackers don't matter like running backs don't matter but i think like anything on the tails when you have extremes they matter uh i think ernest jones in the short period of time has proven to be one of the best run staffing uh linebackers in the league and he's been awesome and this is what tyrese Knight was at UTEP in college. And all of a sudden, I think since they acquired Ernest Jones, they're like top three in success rate and EPA against the run. They were a sieve early in the season. So, yeah, I mean, they're very exciting.

I think that's the best way to go after Seattle is 18s, 20s on Mike McDonald. The other Coach of the Year one that's really interesting is Mike Tomlin's never won the award. They are 10-3. The schedule still remains very difficult. Look, we come on here, and I'll own it. I come on here every week like a bozo and just want to tell you why I don't think Pittsburgh's very good, and they just win.

They're 10-3. I have no really rope to hold on to anymore it'll tell you that they cannot make the playoffs or that they're not a playoff team is they're going to the playoffs it is happening tolens never won the award he's obviously very well respected more so than any of the awards feels like a narrative driven award i think the fact that he's never won matters quite a bit here as well so those would be the two looks for me in the coaching of the Euro market. Again, part of it, I run up against here again, is the schedule at Philly, at Baltimore, the next two weeks, Kansas city, Cincinnati, right?

Cincinnati is obviously a little bit easier, but they're obviously frisky. They're going to play on the stretch. It's not like week 18 Cincinnati is going to be laying down for anybody. So they're going to get full burrow chase Higgins experience obviously Pittsburgh gets the defense on the other side as well to go ahead and not take advantage of that as everyone else has done but you know definitely the hardest schedule remaining on the board but again 10 and 3 right now they win a couple of those games that only solidifies Tomlin in the market I think so those are kind of the interesting ones to me that I think are probably worth your money if you're looking to

kind of speculate on this market. Yeah, no, I like that one. That's a good call out there. And it leads me into another market that I think depends on how the Steelers do. And that's defensive player of the year with Watt right now. He's, I would say, a reasonable favorite at this point. And when you're looking at this market though, defensive player of the year, yeah, we're seeing minus 220 across the board. I think there's a little bit kind of of like who else in the market, but at the same time, like they could easily lose out. That puts them, you know, at 10 and 7, you know, I think in this spot. And then he's also like not leading the league in really anything.

He's just like the best player on a good defense that's winning a lot of games. And so I know we've talked about other guys here, but who stood out to me on the board, you've talked about Neil Hunter a couple of times. He's 22 to one. I think that's a little bit interesting. Jonathan Grenard. I mean, any interest there from the Vikings? Isn't he?

He's like near the top of the league in sacks. He's 50 to one plays on a Minnesota team that, I mean, has a better record than Pittsburgh or as good, I believe, and could wind up with more wins. Doesn't have quite the household name. And then one other one that I thought was a little bit interesting down the board,

Nick Benito, 40 to one. I mean, like again, Denver, like it's tough because Denver probably won't end up with as many wins as, as the pits at Steelers will, but they can come close.

And like, I mean, I think all those guys were in range to like lead the league in sacks. And if they're winning as many games, I think it could change the narrative a little bit. I don't know. I would, I'm,

I'm not necessarily out of my lane, but I don't know as much defensively as you do, but those were like my, my takes here that I think down the board could make sense. But I don't know. I'm here. I'm interested to hear if you're like, Oh, like, no, it's just Watts award, even though he's minus two 20.

No, I think he should be the favorite. I think that's fair, but you, I think you set it up perfectly. Like he's, you know, the household name on a defense that's performing very well on what will be a playoff team. So, and those are kind of the prerequisites essentially, you know, you can cross garrett off the list uh who's as short as 12 to 1 because the browns are terrible uh there's really no path for you've seen it's just not there's not really a precedent for that to happen unless he's out breaking the all-time sack record right you just have to have like a massively statistical outlier season for you know a guy on a losing team to go ahead and do that

um you know the cornerbacks or any uh safeties same thing like patrick certain uh xavier mckinney kirby joseph those guys are all okay um i don't think they're a true defensive player of the year candidates they'd have to have a moment that they haven't had yet uh you'd have to have like a you know a massive interception for certain this weekend against the colts or something or candidates they'd have to have a moment that they haven't had yet uh you'd have to have like a you know a massive interception for certain this weekend against the colts or something or a pick six and a high leverage moment that you can wrap up a game for them and solidify their playoff spot like none of those things are really happening uh you know mckinney has got a bunch of interceptions same thing kirby joseph kirby joseph is nowhere near the best safety on his own team. So that's a tough sell for me.

Yeah, I still think that there's viability on Daniel Hunter. But to your point, I like the Grenard callout. Andrew and Ginkle in the same boat where they're part of this dynamic, blitz-happy defense that's going on in Minnesota that's been a huge part of their success this year. Whoever kind of can come on top of the sack race is interesting. They get the bears this week. So they should both probably add to their numbers,

which is going to be very interesting to see. So that is something that bodes well for them, which is why they're interesting. The one name that jumped out and FanDuel had 40 as of this morning. And the, the cell is kind of tough from like a raw statistical standpoint, but Chris Jones is having a hell of this morning. And the sell is kind of tough from a raw statistical standpoint, but Chris Jones is having a hell of a year. Best defensive player on an elite defense that,

even though he's not getting home and putting up gaudy sack numbers, that guy is, they put him in the middle of the line, and you can't run on him. And they just move him outside on clear passing downs as an addresser who weighs like 60 pounds more than the rest of these addressers and the guy wins as if he's just like uber elite small little fast he's just kind of unfair he's a freak he's awesome so it could be another one of these like career awards where there's not a really clear defined runaway dude and chris jones has been awesome for a very long time and has never won the award

at 40 it's pretty interesting um so that's kind of my favorite current price on the board the other one that's interesting too and it's like the anti watt is cam hayward his own teammate who has been like just as impactful in like the raw sack market another lifetime achievement award he's an all like a hall of famer uh who doesn't have one of these on his mantle that who's a part of this really strong steelers defense who's put up more accounting stats than even tj watt so um that one's interesting if you want to have like a steelers angle i I think those are, you know, interior defensive linemen don't historically win this award very often,

but I'm trying to make the case for two of them at price, right? A 40 and a 50 down the board, because I, to your point, I don't think there's any clear runaway at this point. And what's kind of just a bad chalk. Yeah,

no, I like that. Those are smooth angles. I just loaded up FanDuel and ripped a couple of those, just a little couple, you know, flyers, I think down the border fun, a couple of sprinkles, you know, 25 bucks to win a grand. I just loaded up FanDuel and ripped a couple of those. Just a little couple flyers, I think, down the border. A couple of sprinkles.

$25 to win a grand. Again, something like that could easily happen. It's worth a little bit of money there, I think. Good tickets to have at this time of year. Yeah, exactly. I think we stay in the defensive market here real quick. Defensive Rookie of the Year. Why is Jared Verst minus 105 and fisk 40 to 1 when fisk

has more sacks it's a good question i mean if you just look at uh pressure rates pass rush win rates all those things versus lapping the field probably um it's been awesome so i think that's probably a piece of it um but yeah to see like you know mgm who conveniently is only going to let you bet 20 on it anyway um has an off price market at you know 30 here on uh on fisk which i think is interesting burst is i don't know i don't know if he's good chalk no one else has really stepped up um the case is like you know chop robbertson and layout to latu are playing really well if just one of them kind of goes on a little hot streak here at the end and just compile some sacks because no one else is really running away with it first is not going to be probably part of like

a defensive uh playoff team right so that helps him you know or help some of these other guys down the board i guess that's your angle for queen mitchell who's playing really good football part of the secondary that's flipped the switch here in the second half of Philadelphia. But still like, what's the, what's the case? I mean, I don't, there's no, again, you would feel like he would need a moment. Whereas these other pass rushers have a chance to compile some, you know, headlining sacks or something like that. So yeah, it's a really interesting market.

I think there's going to be some value here down the board. I don't even really know where it is. It's kind of something I don't have any strong opinions on right now. Cool. Yeah, that makes sense. I feel like it's kind of a tough market there. Something that I do have a strong opinion on, I think, is that I hate to say it because I've been a bit of a hater, but I think that in the Offensive Rookie of the Year market, Jaden Daniels actually might be underpriced in the offensive rookie of the year market, which is interesting because they play the Saints, Eagles, and then they have Falcons, Cowboys finish off the year. I mean, pretty weak in three or four games.

I think that he probably has three fairly good games. Meanwhile, Bo Nix has the Colts, which is not that hard, but he has the Chargers and the Chiefs and then the Bengals, which which not a good defense, but they probably lose that game, I would say, or it's close to 50-50. So again, if Bo Nix loses two or three of those games, Jayden Daniels wins three, has three good games. I just see that as a significantly much more likely outcome. And I've been on team Bowers.

I mean, he basically needed to go off every game. He had kind of a down week last week. So it's just a real tough case for him at this point but anyone else stand out to you in that market as we we wrap up the futures here no it's a uh just looking at the board it's like it's a strong rookie class offensively right i mean you go further down the board and obviously the giants are unmitigated disaster of a franchise but like clean neighbors has been really good um and definitely been the only chance that team has had out of pulse uh any like so he's out and dead but this is just a strong rookie class we've had some really you know lab mcconkey's

had a really nice little second half here a little maybe slower start but um i think in other years maybe he's viable it's obviously very tough when you're going up against three quarterbacks that got the ball from day one it's just going to be really hard to beat that guy even if you have a historical outlier of a season like Brock Bowers had so I thought the Bowers angle was fantastic I think you're right you probably laying an egg last week a little bit makes it an uphill battle a guy he's probably gonna have to go out and go bonkers for the last few games that's hard to see but I'm and go bonkers for the last few games. That's hard to see, but I'm with you. I think that the movement on Daniels and Bo Nix comparatively,

I think is maybe gotten a little too tight where Daniels gets really interesting, especially with the schedule, probably getting healthy coming out of the buy. And they feel like they maybe found something and maybe hit the ground running a little bit here down the stretch offensively, at least. So yeah, I think he's think he's probably the right play. I don't know if I would advise laying 275 or so on it, but I'm definitely not chasing Bo Nix at 2-1.

Yeah, no, me neither. Historically, we're going to look back on this award and be like, what happened to Drake May? You're right. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Let's say, like, if they won games he would be very squarely in the mix but their rest of the team just sucks so i mean yeah and he missed

starts at the beginning of the year right well yeah jane daniel's going bonkers uh you know drake may still holding the clipboard yeah he was riding some pine um last one that i have any takes on comeback player of the year i I think I was curious, like, do we think burrow should be even like higher? Like, I don't know if that's a crazy take. He's minus 300. I mean,

they're not going to make the playoffs. So he's not really in like contention for anything else. Right. But he's like putting up like crazy counting stats, like, you know, just doing insane stuff. So like,

I feel like he has to win something. Right. Like, you know, that's kind of what I'm thinking, but like and then there's not really any other like comeback player of the years that i think are really viable i mean maybe anthony richardson if they make the playoffs could make a little run

here but again like joe burrows is playing like next level the defense is just trash so i'm watching that game the other night and i'm you know it like riled my brain i'm like every year i come on and we're doing the preseason next year too. And I'm very pro bangles and I'm very anti Ravens. And I'm like, why does that continue to happen? And it's like, Oh, these two dudes, these two dudes show up and ball out all the time. Watching Jamar chase, like run around,

like everyone knows where the ball is going and it just doesn't matter. He is an absolute alpha. It's just really fun to watch so my only question is i started to see some discussion around this what about demar hamlin right is there is there like room did he miss the window right is there like a time where that expired where he's coming but he's no longer coming back from the dead he's already come back from the dead so he can't be eligible for this year's comeback play of the war of the year award whereas only last year was his window to win it even though he didn't play football last year um i guess this is just such a messy award in terms of what they put around boundaries and what we're supposed to be having these like

things that we can and can't do now. What are your thoughts on Hamlin? Yeah, I mean, I just bet a little bit. It's like 22-1 FanDuel, MGM. I think that it's a viable look. I feel like we just have no idea what's going to go on in the mind of the voters with the new restrictions and guidance, I guess is what they said. It feels like some of them might just go off the cuff or just do what everyone else is doing because they don't want something like last year to happen, I think,

where they got kind of a lot of flack for all that so i think it's worth the sprinkle at 22 to 1 otherwise i think burrows kind of the only one that's viable in my opinion everyone else just really hasn't played well enough um or doesn't really have a path so i think it would kind of take something like crazy like just a random like mentality shift i guess in the last part of the year of like hey demar hamlin played really well you know the media starts picking it up all those things so yeah they play the lines this week lines give up a ton of tackles to the safety position demar hamlin goes out and has you

know 10 tackles this week the bills win and then all of a sudden it's like i don't know at 22 again you know lclv uh who knows so love it all right keep coming back we're going to talk uh futures more and more as we get closer to the end of the season we're going to shift gears now super excited to bring on uh our guests we touched on here at the very very top of the show uh it is a co-founder and ceo of profit x again if you've been hanging out with us talking about it a lot lately uh we are believers and we as gentlemen continue to help you, the listener, believe to be believers again on board as well. It is Dean Sousan. Dean, welcome to the show. Thanks guys. Thanks for having me. Yeah, we appreciate it. I know you're

a busy guy. Your time is valuable and we want to make sure we maximize this today. Got a handful of questions, but anything else too you want to share that you think the listeners need to know about? Connor and I have been sharing it on screen every week moving forward because, I don't know, price matters to us. I think price matters, I think, a lot to our audience. But I guess let's just start back a little bit more of the origin story. How did we get here? Tell us a little bit about how it started.

What was the brainchild? And yeah. Yeah. First of all um again thanks for having me on i've uh i'm very happy with the with our partnership so far like i said to you guys early on uh i'd only want to do something with a group if it makes sense um and clearly your guys, I'll say, vision aligns with ours. So we've been happy so far. But how did we get here?

I'm trying to think about where I want to begin. I can start in high school when my dad introduced me to pick'em pools and that's how I got into sports betting and gambling. Maybe I'll save that story for another time. And then I could also start in college, moving from that to real betting when I really picked this up and really got into this. Or if we want to, for the sake of time, I, I can start with, uh, us moving out to the UK, my co-founder and I to start this because regulation in the U S was non-existent when it did exist, it was too expensive.

Um, so we only had really one alternative and that was to move out there. Basically, the way we got to where we are now is by making a lot of mistakes and learning that price does matter at the end of the day, that people do want a change. So where we're at now is we're in 40 some odd states. You can use our exchange in any of those states as you would for whatever other entertainment platforms that you use, right? And obviously our thesis is price matters to people. You can get as much action down as you'd like, and we try to make it as simple as possible. So we understand that it's different. We understand there's going to be a learning curve, but anytime a user comes onto the site, we've got 30 seconds to grab

someone's attention and show them that this is worth their while. And since we relaunched in August, things have been going really well. And I've been happy with the progress, but happy to chat about whatever's on your guys' minds. Yeah. I mean, I remember when we first discussed and heard about this, when you guys launched through the more traditional market and we're in New Jersey and I'm like, man, this feels like the way, right? This is the future. And again, as you talk about going to the UK, exchanges are just way more commonplace for that audience. It's a little bit untraditional for what we see stateside, but I'm, I know that Connor and I want to do our way,

what we can do to carry our weight, to make this more commonplace because I feel like it's the future. If it can grab on, I think peer to peer gaming, eliminating the middleman, getting better prices is just kind of the right way to do this. If you're betting seriously, if you're trying to scale what you're doing. The only way, anything you can do to reduce the vig and the friction in winning long term is to get better prices.

And that is the model that you guys have. So, Connor, I know you had a question or two. Yeah, no, I'm curious to hear from your angle because we come in here and talk about it every week, like kind of just the unique selling points of ProfitX and like what, like, you know, why would he, you know, essentially why would, should someone play on ProfitX versus anywhere else? And, you know, I think we have our own question, our own answers to that with it, you know, being price, with it being just user experience, availability, things like that. But from your own words, I'd love to hear kind of what you envision, you know, as the unique selling points for ProfitX. Yeah, absolutely. And I love having you guys talk about it because it's raw and organic, right? Like you guys are users of the site. So it normally resonates with people a little more coming from actual users. But that being said, something that I've told my team a lot and something that our team focuses on is building a philosophy and not a product is almost the best way to think of it. Because when you come to our site, it almost looks and feels too good to be true.

And people are taught that things that are too good to be true are too good to be true, but it's not. So the philosophy around building this new category of exchange, right, or, you know, you can think of like a poly market or a call sheet for sports, that is what we are trying to push. And that's the almost like the way of life that we're trying to recreate in this industry. But people have been betting on sportsbooks for so long that it's hard to break that. So I'd say that's how we think of things. That's how we are trying to push our vision. It's almost, we're not creating a product, we're creating a philosophy, a new way to think about this. And I'm happy to have you guys uh on the site and using it and stick to it now stuck to it the interesting thing too is you're kind of in these this like

double new space right there's this like sweepstakes space and maybe this is more like this doesn't really pertain to on the user end of it right they're not necessarily affected by it but the reality is i don't think like we try to come on here and like the best we can to like grab people through the camera shake them and be like hey you're in california you're in texas you think that you're in a jail state you can use profit x and bet on sports yeah you might not have draft kings and you might not have fan duel but like if your goal is to bet on sports and right now you're playing the game with you know overseas or your bookie you know you got got one of Connor's dudes who will shake you down if you don't pay. Like those are not the dudes you want to be going with.

You can get into a more what is a actual regulated legal way to be betting on sports. How is that education piece in terms of a marketing thing? Like how is that coming together? How is that a push or is there like parameters around what you guys can and can't do with the sweepstakes model? I feel like I have questions for Connor, but for another time. We can talk about lines. You just threw me under the bus a little bit, but I'm pretty open about it. My experiences are my experiences. I've been in that world, too. So I hear you. But going back to what I said earlier, too good to be true. Yeah, that's that's the second part of the education here.

Like, it's not too good to be true. You can use this in states that that don't have regulated legalized betting because it is not classified as It is classified as a sweepstakes company. I'm not a lawyer, so I'm not going to talk about exactly why it is classified on here, because I will fumble it maybe more than an attorney would. But that being said, thank you. There is, you know, you go onto the site and there's this free to play section site, right? Like you can play for free with points. You can buy more points. You can compete in contests that we have. And it is a popular section of the site.

It's actually almost as used, if not more used, in that segment than the sweepstakes side every day or the real money USD side. So to that end, there's another element of education, right? Like, you know, there are popular sportsbook competitors out there who are operating under the sweepstakes model. So, you know, in that regard, it hasn't been as challenging for us as maybe we thought it might be, but it's, there still is that element of distrust that people immediately come in because we are not regulated by a gaming body. And to that, I usually say, we were a regulated company. We know what it

takes to be a regulated company. We've got all the policies and procedures in place that we did when we were regulated and all the internal controls in place to make sure that your money is safe when we did, when we were regulated. So to that end, I'd say, please trust us. But obviously, you know, this is why I, I like to talk on these shows because people could put a face to the name and actually see that I'm not just some sort of, or our company is some sort of shady operation. You know, this is a legitimate operation you can use in States that are not regulated. And by the way, it's an exchange. So it's a better product than the sports book at the end of the day. That's one of the biggest points of, not necessarily feedback,

but just like things that we hear from people like trying out a new platform because you have obviously instances in the industry where companies, you know, weren't paying out or, you know, like people have come and go or they've used offshores that have not worked out necessarily. And like people aren't necessarily sure what level,

like what category these companies fall into. And I think being able to put a face name is obviously super important. And also us telling them like, Hey, you know, we, like, we know these guys, we know that they've been around for a while. They know what they're doing. Like they're well-backed, they're going to pay out, you know, like things like that, those matter, that matters so much customers because there's been so much, I mean, you know, in the early days, especially with some of the DFS, you know, I would say props plus companies, uh, hasn't always been the case. Uh, you know, and I know you guys don't fall under that category specifically, but people just might not know that. And so I think that telling them that there's a difference and that, you know,

again, you, you guys are, are well backed and like, you know, it's, it's winners pay loot or losers pay winners. Right. That's what we always come here and say is like, it's an exchange model. Uh, it's a little bit different than normal. So I think that's a really, really fun point. Yeah. And, you know, to I guess it's like it's almost like you're saying the quiet part out loud a little bit. And it's maybe something that people are uncomfortable talking about. But, you know, it's worthwhile speaking about. Right. Because people have been burned in DFS plus and, you know, even, you know, I guess you can call it quasi adjacent to our industry is crypto, right? Like people have for sure no crypto exchanges too. So there's a lot of scars that people have now that, you know, there, there is a lot of distrust out there. So I'm, I'm hopefully I'm here to curb that.

Yeah, no, I mean, even just coming on and talking for a little bit about whatever I think helps no matter what, but I know Noonan has another question I'm going to steal because I think this is a good one. So I see you have like futures on the site, right? You have like college football futures. You guys offer yes, no. I know that not many actually domestic sports books offer a no on stuff, but because you guys are in exchange, you know, that's just not really how it works. Golf outrights, yes, no. Are you guys going to be offering those? I would guess yes and hope so because I know for Newton's sake,

always looking to shop the best price because sometimes those vary like crazy. So this actually also ties into what we have going on in the future. The short answer is yes. There will be golf outrights in the near future. And I hope that we will be able to tie it with a very unique product feature that we will have that is only akin to exchanges. So if you place action on, I don't know, let's just say Scotty to win a tournament.

I actually went to the i was at the hero world i live i live in florida i flew down to the hero world i should have just put a little trip down the bahamas for the weekend i should have put every dollar i had on scotty plus 240 yeah someone asked me they had risk-free bets three risk-free bets and i just bet scotty three times exactly one of them's gonna hit greater than three to one um he for example if you place a if you place action on him let's just say at five to one and you put a hundred profit cash down on that um you stand to win 500 right um if i then place another uh if I want to put money on someone else, if I want to put money on someone, I don't know, a 10 to one, let's say put money on Rory at 10 to one. My max win is 500 on those two guys.

Right. right so then what i can do is start taking the no side on other guys and not and no more money will come out of my wallet because you can only stand to lose a maximum of 100 or 50 dollars on on those two guys so you can start betting the no side for up to that amount of money and you wouldn't have to put any more money into the site if that makes any sense so you can start betting the no side for up to that amount of money and you wouldn't have to put any more money into the site if that makes any sense so you can start like amassing a group of positions and everything only operates off your net worst case scenario and i know it's a little i might not have explained that the best it's because it's a little confusing but um you can essentially have several positions that only have to put money down once, which is a really unique thing to exchanges. And in golf markets, that's where it excels.

It is such a unique thing. That's why I wanted to ask about it, because from a liquidity standpoint, I need someone to have taken some sizable no no action, right. For me to be able to get down on that too. So that's the, that's the interesting point. So it is maybe like a later in the week scenario, where it's like a lot of outright betting currently on domestic sites. It would be an early in the week, you get the best of the number, but maybe later in the week when I can, more information comes in, you know, you can change your position and maybe see how the board is going and see what's going on on ProfitX. Because I think I've heard you talk about this in other places where

it doesn't have to be a and or scenario. It can be used in conjunction with what you do in the sports betting market, in domestics. You can use the exchange in a way to kind of diversify your portfolio and find ways to have more outs where we're kind of covering your butt. I think we're kind of talking about there the way exactly yeah there's there's no limiting that you know we never we never ban people um so you know we'll always be i like to market it to sharper guys as a permanent out because you know we're just an intermediary but um on your point on liquidity if someone is taking taking your no, if you're betting on yes, one golfer to win a golf tournament, don't have to bet no on 15, 20 guys and constantly have to put money into the site for all those 15 to 20 guys. They can just start layering up a

position of, all right, I'll take a max loss of $500 on any of these guys because only one guy is going to win the tournament, right? Two of them can't win the tournament. So they don't have to put more than $500 down on that. Connor is going to be in there shorting golf winners all season long. This sounds like your dream world, just guys not to win. Yeah, just laying whatever juice it takes on guys not to win. It always reminds me of the Rufus Peabody portfolios that he tweets out of his nose on things that are minus 8,000. And then I think he lost one like somewhat recently, maybe the last couple of months and everyone was ripping on it for it. But I mean, he's like one of the best bettors,

at least publicly of all time. So, you know, I think he's, he knows what he's doing for the most part. So figuring out how to use that and leverage it in the profit X space sounds incredible. That's pretty exciting actually for me. I'm not going to lie. Laying all the no's there.

Sounds great. Yeah. Lay no on Rory in any major tournament. That should be a pretty good reason. Yeah. It could be. Yeah. It's been profitable for a decade for sure.

One other question that I want, kind of touching base on this too, and it matters a ton to us. We'll continue to... And the partnership matters to us too, right? Because like, yeah, to Connor's point, we've had a lot of DFS Plus partners over the years and there's not a lot of things that we actually use

and can get behind and really believe that can be transformative in the space. And like, yeah, we have a partnership. Yeah, you're on the show. We actually believe that this is something that can really change things for the better in the industry. More opportunities, more outs than the limit piece, obviously is fantastic and pricing matters a ton. something that can really change things for the better in the industry more opportunities more outs than the limit piece obviously is fantastic and pricing matters a ton you got to see the fan

duel earning reports come out and you see the insane I don't know ton is the only word I could think of same game that like is of what 65 of their profits. It is kind of probably what we would assume, but to see it is insane. And that's got to tell you, at a certain point, especially for the casuals, which make up a share of our audience too, price isn't the only thing that matters. So I've seen there's a Parlay Specialist tab. I know there's player props in there as well, which is obviously something that we like to get down on. How do you capture new players to try the exchange model when price alone isn't a driving force for them? Yeah, I love this question.

First of all, price matters. It also doesn't matter, right? When it comes to these products. I think they're so popular because they're just really fun right like you know the lottery has existed for over 100 years because it's really fun this is basically just buying lottery tickets um at least in my opinion what is the hold 30 on these sgps i think vandals reportcasted their annual hold on handle to, I've seen upwards of 14, 15, 16% in some states. It's insane. I've never seen that. Like the industry standard used to be six, 7%,

but now it's crazy. But anyway, number one, our props product is going to be, give it six weeks, it's going to be incredible. I'd say right now, I think it's okay. I don't think it's amazing yet. We are getting a lot of prop volume, which is really exciting. It's approaching almost 50% of our volume. But in January, once we have a couple of service providers come in and provide more liquidity to those markets uh that is probably the

next most exciting thing that we've got going on um and then we're building around our unique selling prop right like if if you've ever come on the site and requested a price or set your own odds um there's friction around it right now so we're building out features to make it really easy to edit it um just right in your in your slip um not having to cancel your position and put it back up just being able to do it like right then and there being able to to move your price more easily and then also being able to um you know like let's's say there's $50 of liquidity available and you want to put down $100 instead of getting filled for $50 and keeping $50 open. You know, having that $100 get filled at the next best price instantly. So giving a lot of people options there. I will say there's also some other products we're exploring.

I can't talk about it just yet on the show, but kind of like I said earlier, we are slash have invented a new category, right? So building around the features, why people, you know, our thousands of customers are using them is what we're leaning into right now. But the prop stuff is personally what I'm most excited for because you're going to see a menu for the NFL playoffs. Hopefully that is pretty extraordinary. is personally what I'm most excited for because you're going to see a menu for the NFL playoffs, hopefully, that is pretty extraordinary. Love that. Yeah, that's great to hear. Obviously, we mentioned we love props.

We bet on those. I would say a good bit more than sides and totals at this point, but obviously dabble in both. I guess the last question I had here, I know we've run through 15, 20 minutes here without even hitting all the questions that we were discussing here. But last one I had that I thought was interesting. So you guys offer the best prices virtually on everything. How often do people buy points on ProfitX? Considering when you buy a point, it's kind of similar to the standard line on most other places so like you're getting

basically like a similar price to those on that like is that how popular of a feature feature is that um and is it even like considered buying points i guess in this instance i don't know it's like because it's it's a little slider you know for those who we show it every week and i'll show it after dean acts off here when we talk about our games but like how popular is that i guess i would say on the main lines it's very popular on the props i was actually talking to um to to andy about this uh for props people didn't realize it was there uh there's a lot of feedback that i've gotten so it hasn't been as popular as main lines, but that carousel, I love that carousel. Just being able to just navigate 15 lines at a time on one outcome is fantastic. I would say, last I checked, 15 to 20% of volume on those types of positions

comes in on alternates is what I call them. Buying points for the old school bookie type customers out there. I still call it that. But on all the alternates, I'd say 15 to 20%. On props, it's a little more difficult because it's almost harder to, like, for example, on a running back total, you know, I saw Rico Dowdle's total Monday night between 63 and 69 and a half, right? So, like, getting action on each one of those half points between 63 and 69 and a half is a little harder when you have a community of, you know, 10,000 or so people. But on a mainline, when you're just looking at all the key numbers, it's a lot easier to get action down on those, right? So I think that's partly why the mainlines get more popularity on the alts.

But that being said, come January, I hope that is different in the prop market. Props are so volatile too. I mean, it's one of those things where I'm not sure anyone would want to buy like Pollard 71 yards, but maybe they're interested in 99 yards or like, you know, over 99 yards or over like 25 yards, you know, and like paying like out, you know, out the ass for it. But it's, I think it's, that's in my mind where like prop alts are super interesting, especially if you're getting better prices. Totally agree because books don't have that, right? They have their 50-50 line, their minus 110 line. And then they have key numbers that they define. So 50 plus, 75 plus,

100 plus. Whereas we have every half yard between 10 yards. And they kill you and hold for those prices. I mean, just terrible prices. And one book actually had the alt unders and they removed them this year. So, uh, pretty sad about that. Noonan knows that I love my, my prop unders. Um, so that was pretty disappointing to be honest, but, uh, I take a guy for under 25 and you can take it for under 12 and a half, you know, that's what I'm saying. That's where I'm at. Um, but that was all the questions i had noon and any anything last things from you no i'll just circle back and have dean on again

because i think we could have touched on four or five more topics or expanded on that for sure but yeah we're uh stoked to see what comes of january uh with the prop market changes that you're talking about and uh yeah we're gonna continue to champion your site because I think it's really cool. People need to check it out. ProfitX in the app store. Use promo code Betsperts when you're signing up. Does us a favor. Supports the show.

Again, who cares? Get on ProfitX. Again, losers print the shirts, Dean. Losers play winners. Hoodies, hats. I've got to get you guys to merge merge it's a great way to run it yeah appreciate it guys yeah i appreciate your time and yeah we'll circle back and have you on again soon for sure sounds good i appreciate it yeah i mean like like i said there i we we've had a lot of deals over the years um some we don't always use some of them don't always pay us right

the reality is is uh you know i think this is a really it is a unique thing in the space for us domestically you touched on how they started the exchange and had to go overseas and that's a market that's used to the exchange market um you know and maybe the exchange word is a word that there's got negative connotation to it and people think of it as something different than it is but um it's simply peer-to-peer right i want to take seattle at home this week and connor wants the packers well we don't have to just bet that separately over on draft kings we can take each other's action and each get a better price. So then when, you know, whoever wins,

we were paying less to the site, to the provider, and more of it's going into the winner's pocket. So it's just that simple. So questions reach out to us. We continue to talk about it because it's where the best prices lay. And if you're betting sides and totals,

you need to check it out. So, all right, buddy, let's get into some of the games. There's a handful we'll buzz through here. I know we're short on time, but a couple of the key games that I think are noteworthy for the week. There are some really impactful ones in terms of playoff positioning. None more so than the Indy at Denver game.

Again, this is kind of the late window looking domestically, about three and a half, four on the Broncos side at home. Total out there between 44, 44 and a half or so. And if you can bring up the ProfitX screen here too, we could see what we can get shopping wise there. Both teams coming off of a buy, which sucks for them. You have the late season buy. You don't even get the rest advantage because both teams are there you can see here uh totals got a pretty good price you can get uh you know three and a half on india plus 102 you're not getting that anywhere else um so

that's a really nice number but you know what are your thoughts here again this is a again i talk about the leverage here it's not a shoo-in but basically if denver wins here it's going to get real hard for anyone else to take that last spot in the playoffs you kind of have the chargers in denver six and seven uh chargers also have a game here against tampa bay this week that i think is interesting it has some playoff implications for both conferences but in the kind of dead, if they lose this one, uh, things are getting tough for obviously, you know, the bangles are way out of it, Miami kind of holding out hope, but Denver kind of locks things up here for the most part. If they can

win here, what are your thoughts on Indy Denver? Yeah, I don't have too much on this game specifically to be honest, but I do think that, um, I Indy is going to struggle to run the ball here and that puts a lot of pressure on Anthony Richardson, and that's not where you want to be. And on the other hand here, we have Bo Nix, I think, really coming into his own second half of the season and in a spot here against an Indy defense that I think has been incredibly average in a lot of metrics.

The Denver running game, again, I mean, also probably not something that they're going to be able to lean on, but that's been fine. They've had no problem just putting Bo Nix back there and throwing the ball 40 times. I mean, it's going to be like 48-yard slants and curls and things like that. But that's okay. He's accurate. He's putting the ball where it needs to be.

And Corlin Sutton, the guy that you've bet on multiple times, has been playing a lot better. And then obviously Devon Bailey, I think, has come into his own a little bit. And they're using some of the speedy guys, Mims and Franklin, like as field stretchers. I mean, they don't ever complete the long shots, but sometimes they're there, and they open up the field for guys. So, look, I think that Denver is probably my side here.

I don't necessarily love laying three and a half here, and it looks like there's no liquidity on three specifically, but three and a half minus 110 isn't terrible. I'm a little bit more on Denver here. I know you're probably going to tell me, though, that you're back in Indy one more time, right? I like the Colts. Oh, there we go.

Denver likes to play man. They like to blitz their face off. The one thing that Anthony Richardson did well in college and has continued to do well in the NFL is avoid sacks. Part of it is I want to see the offensive line coming out of the buy for Indy. They've had some injuries look kind of limping into the buy, but Indy plus four here at minus one Oh six is really,

really appealing. I think you're going to see some splash runs from Richardson here to avoid pressure. So Josh Downs comes back. I think that helps them quite a bit been able to pick on denver in the slot uh if denver doesn't have um riley moss we saw what happened going into the buy with how the browns were able to pick on levi wallace who is as dusty as they get on the secondary yeah so if we get another full game start from levi wallace with downs back and coming off of a bye indy at four would be my play so there's some injury news

there on both sides i think matters but definitely would be a lean indy for me yeah if josh downs play the thing it definitely matters um yeah the i mean michael pitman still sucks at this point considering he's hurt man he's hurt yeah like he's hurt i mean he's just like he's he's hurt he's running like jason whitten out there you know it's like it's brutal um yeah maybe the buy didn't get better too like i'm not going to be well i might be fitting him that's not a guarantee we'll see what his number comes out at all yeah we'll see yeah we'll see yeah and if they're healthy if it's moss and you know patrick chutan that that would matter too so i get it yeah under 40 yards I can already pencil that in.

Yeah. We'll see. Yeah. The other really good one on this was a few good ones. Buffalo, Detroit, I think obviously potential Super Bowl matchup here where the Lions are two and a half point favorites basically across the board. Healthy total, 53 and a half, 54 and a half, which matters. I mean, 54, kind of a key number.

So shop that around if you have a preference at all. I think you're going to see some interesting matchups in terms of how these two teams can both win offensively. When you have a team that can commit to the run and do really well against Buffalo, that's been a problem for them. I think that will be the question that they have to answer down the stretch. It is something that the lions are willing and able to do proficiently with volume with explosiveness that's going to be a tough

part here for buffalo and then another scenario where you have a team that has to rely on getting creative generating pressure from the second level blitzing at a really high rate against superman that would make me very nervous uh as well so what are your thoughts here on uh probably one of the best games of the season bills lions i think you laid it out great because the lions here i mean i think both offenses have a good amount of success here this lions team last week we were on you know some josh jacobs overs against them because their entire front seven is basically out um they just loaded the box i mean they just put like literally everyone in there and dared jordan love to beat him deep and he kind of did but like they just like were

refusing to allow them um to commit to the run here and i think against josh allen and the bills that's potentially more of a problem because i think we've seen Josh Allen just execute more, you know, on deeper downfield plays or like if they want to hold the box against Josh Allen, I don't think that that's going to really work all that well because the bills have had no problem being like, all right, we're just not going to run it instead. Um, now that's gotten them into some hot water, but I don't think that that's going to matter as much here in this spot. Uh, and then on the other side of the ball, like you said, like Detroit's going to run the ball, um ball probably as much as they want, considering how strong their running game is.

And we also just saw, I mean, was it the Rams just dropped 40 on them? You know, like, you know, obviously Jerry Goff is not Matthew Stafford and Puka and Kup are a little bit different. The Lions have plenty of wagons on their own end. So I struggle to see a way which this is not a pretty high scoring game now a lot of that's reflected in the market already we're looking at like 54 54 and a half so you're not getting any discounts on that um i'm i'm just interested i'm honestly this might just be a game where i bet on some props and just like hang out or just not even bet it at all and

just watch it because i kind of want to bet like buffalo at two and a half but not enough to play it if it was ever three i'd probably play buffalo um i'm not super stoked to bet like Buffalo at two and a half, but not enough to play it. And if it was ever three, I'd probably play Buffalo. Um, I'm not super stoked to bet on Detroit just because again, they're so beat up upfront. Like just, I think they got one of their defensive linemen practice today. So he's like trending in the right direction.

But again, we're talking about like him and Jack Campbell and the rest are like, it was like Dan Campbell's cousin was playing defensive lineman and like, you know, all these bums, like just literally, and then they did a good job, but like, you know, all these bums, like just literally. And then they did a good job, but again, because they had like eight guys in the box every play.

So yeah, it is, it's a game for props for sure. Live opportunities. I mean, I was some of my bigger wins last weekend were live. Josh Allen rushing live Amari Cooper, who dropped to like 31 and a half receiving yards midway through the first quarter. And it was like, I don't know. They're going to be out there throwing again. He like by halftime had like 60 something.

So like there could be some opportunities where if Detroit pushes Buffalo, like I think we think they're going to, then all of a sudden you just have a different version of the Bills than we've seen all season long, which from a prop standpoint can be pretty dynamic. When you have a, a Josh Allen, who's willing to scramble,

willing to push the ball down the fields. So yeah, it's going to be a great football game. Kind of in that zone where like I can tease it through the three and the seven, but also like Detroit scares the crap out of you. And you know, that would make me nervous too.

So yeah, i don't know about that one um how about pennsylvania big game in pennsylvania steelers eagles five five and a half on the eagle side totals healthy as well oh not too bad 42 a lot of drama in philly for a team that's won a bunch in a row uh do we have squeaky wheel aj brown this week what are your thoughts on uh you know aj brown or what are your thoughts on, uh, you know, AJ Brown or what are your thoughts on, uh, fraudulent Steelers against, uh, your Superbowl champ Eagles? Yeah, I think that there's some underrated news here with George Pickens still not practicing. I mean, this passing game was like lost last week. Uh, I mean, they were really bad. Uh, like Russell Wilson couldn't complete any of the chain moving stuff, all of his little, you know, like what do they call

moonshots or whatever, like moon balls. None of them were even close because they're just not on the same page and mike williams probably just sucks at this point in his career um like in my opinion the offense passing game like looked pretty broken now you're getting a match of a much tougher matchup this week against the eagles who i mean, outside of, I think a couple blips here and there have largely played great pass defense. Um, so I don't know. I really struggled to see how they succeed there. I think we're going to see a lot of running the ball from the Steelers and on the other side here, like, yes, the Steelers defense is good. Uh, I don't know if they're good enough to slow down this Philly running game. And I don't know if the passing game can get back on track

specifically in this spot, but force feeding AJ Brown is a pretty good place to start. My guy Jalen Hurts has not played particularly well down the stretch here, but he hasn't really needed to. So I like Philly here, honestly. I mean, we're looking at minus 5.5, minus 1.03. I mean, 5.5, 5, 4.5, all kind of like dead. So instead of laying 4.5, I think probably just go up to 5.5 half and get minus 103 here 350 and liquidity is pretty solid too so um i don't know i think the eagles could win in a big way here against the steelers team that again like

if they're locking down russ and maybe they like slow down the run game a little bit or just get a couple stops like this game could be pretty lopsided i'm with you i like it i like less than six minus 103 is beautiful so yeah philly or nothing for me for sure and it seems like pickens is not playing based off of some early discussions there so again a team that is you know probably managing their one of their star players moving forward for a playoff run hamstrings can be pretty temperamental so you want to probably err on the side of caution with pickens make sure he's good for whatever comes of late December, January football for Pittsburgh,

who is going to be involved in late December, January football, as much as I begrudgingly want to pretend it's not going to happen. So yeah, Philly less than six, I think is the right play. Last one I want to talk real quick about Packers are on the road in Seattle. Seattle, again, just continues to win. They are dogs though at home. play last one i want to talk real quick about uh packers are on the road in seattle seattle again just continues to win um they are dogs though at home green bay making the trip to the pacific northwest and laying two to three in some spots 45 46 is the total here um yeah i'm interested to see this matchup i'm on the stealer i mean i'm on the uh seahawks at home i think that's getting points i think is really interesting i think they're a fantastic teaser leg

um i would like to see kenneth walker but your boy charbonnet was uh pretty nice last week uh you jumped into some early sharb stuff that carried your week for sure but uh he seemed to have a pulse that we hadn't seen early in the season but yeah i'm just really bullish on um what this this Seattle defense is doing. And I think they're going to give some looks to Jordan love that have him turn the football over and create some shorter fields for this offense. Yeah. I also like Seattle here.

I think that they just, they're, they're coming together. I think it's coming together at the right time. I think this green Bay defense is just very much fine. In my opinion, they're overrated in a lot of like EPA metrics just because they turn the ball over,

have turned the ball over a ton. I'm not sure that's super sticky on a play-by-play basis. I kind of want to fade them a little bit here. And Seattle getting the running game going last week was awesome. Charbonnet with his, he had three carries for four yards in the first quarter. And so I, you know, to Newton's point here real quick,

I was actually at the sim with Steve and I had the notification on my watch that I was like, Kenneth Walker downgraded from limited practice on Wednesday to Thursday DNP. So I just immediately picked up my phone. We stopped the round, and I was like, bet every Zach Charbonnet over that you can get. So I was just ripping them for like three minutes until I yanked them off the board. And I got like over 16, 30, 40, 50, and obviously hit that on one run. But again, three carries for four yards,

no room to run. This Macintosh guy was coming in like ripping like 10, 15 yards. I'm like, Oh, I'm for sure losing this. Like, this is like, this guy sucks. And then he just rips like another 125 yards, the rest of the game. So shout out Zach Charbonnet made my week. Uh, thankfully, otherwise I would be, I mean, I might be at Seattle right now, you know, just like living on a box on the side of the street, um, after how the rest of the week went, otherwise it was brutal. So, uh, yeah. And point being, I like Seattle here.

Plus three minus one 16 at profit exchange is not bad. This is what I'm saying with like the buying points up. Like you can get half a point and it's like minus one 16. Like every prop that I bet is minus one 16. Like, you know what I mean? This is like, like feels like nothing. Whereas it's a crucial half point. Yeah. It's a big half point. So I don't know. It's kind of interesting. Yeah. No, I thought it was a really good, good question.

I think in general people probably shouldn't be to your point, buying points on props because we know it's not super efficient unless you're doing what you're talking about, where we like to do the large alts uh or alt unders right where you're taking a guy who's at like you know mid 60s or 70 and saying no i think he goes for a bill right that's different than like i want to just kind of finagle within the small little band they're just not that efficient whereas we know that this is a more efficient market so yeah that's a great call out i mean three is a big deal to go from two and a half to three and you typically have to pay a lot more than this for it.

So, yeah, Seattle's aside for me. I like them getting points. Again, another great teaser leg to get them through the three and the seven, getting eight and a half at home, where I think they're really live to win outright, I think is a pretty nice spot to be in. So, yeah, I'm bullish on Seattle to continue to be. And, again, it's a tough schedule, so I think they're going to get playoff tested uh is they kind of you know can they answer the bell

down the stretch here i know we're going long but i got just one more fun one uh chiefs browns over um i mean this is going to be just another peak jay mis game here like we're getting a pass funnel defense that hasn't really played all that well for the last month plus at this point. I mean, they played fine against the chargers, but they didn't have McConkie. Will Disley got hurt.

I mean, he was thrown to stone smart at like 90 yards. They still weren't even pressuring Herbert that much. Like I, you know, he would have thrown for three 50 if, if McConkie and Disley played, um,

James is going to have to chuck the ball here again. Like I just can't imagine this stereo unless the chiefs offense, like really stinks. Uh, the James isn't throwing the ball like 40 plus times here, which leads to either big plays and touchdowns or pick sixes and mistakes, which both of which helped the over. So yeah,

I think that this, that over is pretty fun. It's like 45, 45 and a half is what I was seeing. Um, specifically, but that's kind of like a, a fun over, I think. Yeah. Okay. What's 40. Uh, this that over is pretty fun it's like 45 45 and a half is what i was seeing um specifically but that's kind of like a fun over i think yeah okay what's uh do you see 43 and a half 42 and a half here yeah looks like someone someone bought back on it like mid show or like uh right before the

show yeah 43 and a half minus 113 that's great yeah that's it seems pretty solid here yeah 44 again kind of covers you know 24 20 uh type of scenario that's kind of where you're where your implied totals would be uh considering you know we have a four point spread so yeah i mean if the lord didn't actually deliver him from the pick sixes he just gave him a week off uh it brings it back into play for sure and that matters i mean that's uh i guess early in the week, I haven't looked, you know, that Cleveland wind can be a thing. So would want to know more information on that.

But yeah, I'm with you on all things passing game for Cleveland in this spot, for sure. I like it quite a bit. Also, I have six and a half in Minnesota against the Bears. I kind of like that too. I just, I'm really, I'm nervous about Caleb against this defense. I'm just, I'm very nervous for what they're doing. He's just holding on the ball too long.

I was looking at today. The only guys that have a longer time to throw against pressure than Caleb are Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. They've combined been sacked 54 times on the season caleb by himself has been sacked 55 times this season so um while he's mobile and can kind of create and do some stuff he's just it's just eating too many sacks and those are absolute drive killers um so less than seven on the minnesota side i think is is pretty interesting i think they are continue to be underrated still very much have number one seed in the conference to play for you can win the division still so i think you're gonna get minnesota's best effort

here in the spot against a bears team that's gonna struggle to protect their quarterback who loves to take sacks the bears are just quitting man like this is like pathetic just quiet quitting yeah i don't know what's quiet quitting yeah i don't know what's going on yeah i don't even know if it's quiet though like they're just like you know everyone's quitting on the season uh i mean it's like dj mores quit for like two months but like romo dunze and his dad are just popping off on socials you know and the old line sucks thomas brown i mean he's just now again another placeholder on just a dead beat team uh like it wouldn't surprise me just to see them run the ball and get out of games like you know at this point like it's

protect caleb going to next season thomas brown will get fired and have a nice little salary to sit on probably and then go from there yeah don't get caleb hurt for for next year but yeah minnesota detroit seattle green bay this is your four stretch to finish for the Bears. So the toast against teams that really need to win those football games, there could be some just kind of attack the Bears in the market down the stretch could be probably a pretty interesting way to go about it. So good stuff as always. Enjoy having Dean on.

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