Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 15 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions | Dallas Cowboys & More!

Episode Date: December 13, 2023

In this comprehensive Week 15 NFL Betting Guide, we delve deep into the most promising bets, odds, and predictions for the upcoming NFL matchups, with a special focus on the Dallas Cowboys and their potential performance. Our expert analysis covers a range of teams and games, offering viewers an in-depth look at where to place their bets for maximum returns. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the world of NFL wagering, this video is the perfect resource to get you up to speed with the latest trends and insights.Tune in to our ULTIMATE Week 15 NFL BETTING GUIDE for a detailed breakdown of the games to watch, including the Dallas Cowboys and other key teams like the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills. We provide an expert perspective on the betting landscape, highlighting the best bets, understanding the odds, and making accurate predictions.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends to talk about sides and totals and the best matchups here for the Week 15 Slates. Joining me here, as always, Connor Allen. Connor, what's going on, bud? Not a whole lot. Got back on track last week. Was super close to having just like an insane bounce back week.

A couple things didn't break my way, but still feels good to be in the black after a couple of, you know, rough weeks there. Hashtag trust the process on my end you know and i'm feeling good now heading into this week and the fedora is out as well for our boy sharp clark fedora is a indicator of a profitable week in the previous week clark's going on bud not much i i made a stupid bet on monday night i i wanted to bet the money line on the titans uh and for stupid reasons parlayed it with the packers money line and so i ended up losing money on a correct prediction of a 14.9 winning outright so that that was dumb good handicapping dumb betting on my part that that i can i can work on but still still a great week

yeah it's the worst. It was a good, crazy, crazy finish to that game. Interesting to see how that shapes up here. We are through the buys. We are into full slate season. Three of us are going to be here continuing through the playoffs to the Super Bowl every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern on our 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel.

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You can get a betting subscription, get all the official plays, all that we do at 444, including all of our NBA bets, betting NBA every day as well. Head over to 444.com slash plans. Already discounted on there. It's basically like buy one month, get two for free. Pretty substantial discounts comparatively to the start of the season again you can check that out anything we do again discord uh you want to bet all the stuff that we do and then you know maybe you're still grinding best ball or season

long or who knows what you have going on you get access to all that we do all the tools and stuff as well find more information here in the show notes to go to 444.com slash plants all right guys as we kind of touched on last week, you know, home stretch, why weeks are done, award markets. We were talking before we got going about just insanity that is comeback player of the year and what even, you know,

constitutes a comeback in terms of injury or bad performance, left for dead, all those things, kind of a wild thing. But, you know, some of the other ones make a little bit more sense. And then obviously you can bet playoffs to make the playoffs. You can bet, you know, all those things, kind of a wild thing. But, you know, some of the other ones make a little bit more sense. And then obviously you can bet playoffs to make the playoffs. You can bet, you know, Superbowl, all the different stuff you can do. Is there anything that's jumped out to you guys here?

Clark, I'll start with you. You want to keep an eye on here future wise heading into week 15. Nothing this week. Good week for my Bill's Superbowl bet last week. You know, the division is not dead. And a playoff spot is very much alive. I don't believe in many of the AFC playoff contenders. I think the Broncos are a bit underrated and their price to make the playoffs might be a little bit bettable.

They got a fairly easy road down the stretch, especially with Justin Herbert now up for the year. If they can upset the Lions, I don't see why they don't make the playoffs. And then the other one was, I just placed a small amount on Rams to win the Super Bowl 120 to one, because I don't think it's particularly likely. But again, you're looking at this time of year, you're looking for teams that have what it takes to make a deep playoff run, which is elite quarterback play, good coaching, and doing enough of the right things the right way that they could get hot, right? I mean, they just took the Ravens in Baltimore to overtime. I think any team that can do that has what it takes to, you know, they've won a Super Bowl with Stafford before,

they have better receivers now. So the offensive line is playing really well. And I think it's not likely they even make the playoffs, but if they they do they're the kind of team that can uh potentially upset the the big boys in the nfc and i think 121 makes a nice hedge on some san francisco futures i have my rams under seven and a half on uh life support there as you mentioned though they are on the wrong side in terms of uh you're looking at the odds here to make the playoffs you can get the Rams at plus 185 plus 180 on Caesars the Broncos as well if you're looking at Broncos still plus money to make the playoffs too so you know they are an interesting look if they happen to upend the Lions here Connor anything that's caught your eye or anything that happened week 14 that's kind of shaping the way you look here at the last month yeah we talked about the Ravens I think last

week though they're now the I mean not co-fites, but second and odds plus 600 to win the Superbowl, which I think is good sign there. I mean, just, I continue to be impressed with them, even though their defense played pretty poorly in Stafford, I think just kind of was able to push the ball downfield, despite the conditions is pretty interesting. I do think that you could play a little sprinkle Aaron Rodgers comeback player of the year, 40 to one? I know you talked about it on previous shows. Yeah, I mean, not going to go into, you know, specific reasonings. But if he plays, I think that there's probably a better than 40 to one chance that he wins the award, even though he's pretty unlikable, you know, amongst the media. Yeah, I mean, New York, it's, you know, again, because part of it is like, what is the award to begin with? The front runner for the award is playing nine snaps all season. We have a really hard time pinpointing what people are coming back from, whether it's like we said earlier, like benchings, left for dead, is the kind of a, it's a make made up a war to begin with. So, you know, the reasoning is really kind of hard to pinpoint.

So yeah, I, you got a 40, you know, I thought 18 was viable a couple weeks ago and, you know, he got like basically opened up and started practicing. So 40 is a fantastic number. So don't hate that whatsoever. All right. We are into the Saturday season as well. Three games on Saturdays. Absolutely love this time of year. My wife, not a huge fan of this, but you knowcap on Saturday we have the Broncos on the road in Detroit uh interesting line movement here uh Lions were three and a half point favorites in

the look and mark and then it opened we had some early line movement that I think went a little bit against my intuition here just considering that the Lions lost they've kind of looked bad especially defensively of late uh and then the Broncos won again and we got up to detroit minus five and now we're back down basically fours across the board um so dancing between key numbers here so it's not massive or really impactful movement uh because we're not really flirting with three we're not really flirting with six necessarily but um and the over has taken some public steam as well we're up a little bit 46 47 and a half, 48 now in most spots here. Clark, you talked about being interested in the Lions or I'm sorry, in the Broncos, especially if they win here. Floor is

yours. You can get us started. Yeah, this game is a very interesting game. I had this whole spiel ready this morning to talk about when you're originating, sometimes you're going to disagree with market. Sometimes you're going to beat the market. Ultimately, no originator beats the market or is smarter than the market on 100% of their bets, right? The best NFL originators are better than the market, greater than 52.5% of the time, whatever. And the market was moving against me on this. I like the Broncos here and the money was flowing in on the Lions at home. And I just didn't understand

it. I mean, the look ahead was four and a half and the Broncos were destroying the Chargers even before Justin Herbert got hurt. Actually, the Chargers offense was much more effective with Easton Stick than it was with Herbert in that game. I don't think that means Stick's better than Herbert. I just mean that the Broncos defense was dominating that game. The Lions, meanwhile, were lost fairly to the Bears. And yet it opened to four and there was interest on the Lions. And I've heard it phrased as kind of a buy low opportunity on the Lions. And I just, I don't understand the concept of buy low when the price is the same as what it was on the look ahead.

It's like, it's like they were, it's like almost like bettors were wanting to bet on the Lions ahead. It's like, it's like they were, it's like almost like betters were wanting to bet on the lions in this spot, you know, coming off a road game in which Derek Goff traditionally struggles in the elements coming back home where they're at their best against what is a perceived overrated Broncos team, which I'll get to in a second. And it was like, the price didn't matter. Like this could have gone down to three. I think if betters weren't so eager to get involved with the lions, because I think people were willing to bet the Broncos even at three and a half. Instead, the money came in, it went up, and now it's come back down.

And so now I don't really feel like the market's against me because now the Wednesday market is on the Broncos as well. So I feel comfortable with the Broncos here. There's a few reasons why. One, the Broncos offense, I think the numbers are a little skewed. People keep talking about how the Broncos have been lucky to get all these turnovers and that has like inflated their perception. But one thing that people don't realize that those turnovers have done is they've kind of created more plays in the red zone area.

And the Broncos are a team that struggles in the red zone. Like Russell Wilson needs space to work. He's really good between the twenties, the run games better between the twenties. When they get deep into the opponent territory, they kind of clam up. That's actually a pattern for most teams in the league, but it's more drastic for the Broncos. And so playing a higher percentage of their plays in that area has kind of skewed their numbers in a little bit. So to put some specifics on it, their offense overall is 16th in EPA per play and success rate flat. But in counting only plays like they're outside the opponent's 30, so opponent's 30 and back, they're the 10th best offense in EPA per play and 16th best in success rate. But inside the 30, they're 20th in EPA per

play and 18th in success rate. So they're basically playing a higher percentage of their plays when they're at their worst. And so I think that's just kind of skewing some of the metrics that people use to make their models. My metrics account for that kind of stuff. And I'm finding this to be about Lions minus three, even if you give them a little bit of a, you know, Lions are way better at home boost. Broncos playing the third straight road game. I don't really put stock into stuff like that. Maybe that matters. But I just can't get all the way up to four and a half.

So I think there was value on four and a half. It's back down to four. I honestly would still play four, but I get why some people would be interested in the Lions. That's interesting stuff. They're too close to the red zone. They're too close to the end zone to score, which, you know know here's probably something

to that um connor that lion's defense has really been in a tailspin as well which i think can help uh any pro broncos handicap here third in defensive dva through the first six weeks of the season week seven on their 31st they have been an absolute disaster giving up big chunk plays as well we also have offensively it's been a problem too we have three of the last four games jared goff has turned the ball over multiple times happened again last week against the bears uh what are your thoughts on this one yeah since their week nine by lions allowing 25.8 points per game their bottom five and basically you know points for red zone drive pressure rate epa per play explosive pass rate you know like almost

every key metric you can you want to look at, they're not really performing all that well. And to make matters worse, it's not like it was against a gauntlet competition. Bears twice, Chargers, Packers, Saints during that span. So you're playing against pretty bad offense, or at least I would say league average, cumulatively at best among those offenses there.

And so now you're getting a spot here where the Broncos offense, I wouldn't say has been like awesome as Clark laid out, but they've been, you know, solid, consistent and in the red zone too. I mean, Russell Wilson was, you know, entering last week 17 touchdowns, zero picks in the season, you know, in the red zone alone. So he's still getting it done, you know, when it matters there. But I do think that this Denver defense,

a couple of weeks ago, we talked about how they might be overrated because their EPA was high, but their actual underlying metrics weren't super good. But now coming into this game, over the past nine games, Denver 10th in pressure rate, 13th in yards per pass attempt allowed.

So I mean, it's not like it's, there are other underlying metrics that don't rely on turnovers, touchdowns allowed that are still pretty solid here. So I think that there's potential here for the lions to bounce back offensively i mean i don't really know they're not going to do much worse than when we saw against the true or uh against chicago but i do think in this spot here that denver is still going to like keep them honest you know i don't think it's like a massive explosion spot here so i still i lean plus four

but i do think that um you can make a case for the Lions reverting offensively, but I just can't get to the point where I'm like, okay, well, this Lions defense is going to shut down the Broncos offense. And that's kind of where I struggle to make a strong case for the Lions money here. So maybe an over? Yeah, right. I think that would probably be my lean, like Detroit and then the, or sorry, Denver and the over would probably be my leans here. Okay. Yeah. That makes the most sense to me. Go ahead, Clark. I also want to say that I'm more skeptical in the Lions offense than I think most people are. I was really excited about them early in the year coming out and, you know, you got love the play caller, love the offensive line, but

it, it actually hasn't been good by my numbers. And when you break down their schedule, I, so, you know, I've talked about this before, but I, I do point in time team rating. So, you know, it's one thing to say, well, the Lions played the Chiefs in week one, but they played the Chiefs without Chris Jones and Charles O'Manahue, right? So factoring in circumstantially, you know, they played the Seahawks without Jamal Adams and Rick Willem only played 11 snaps. They played Carolina without Vaughn Bell, Xavier Woods, Shaq Thompson, J.C. Horn. They played the Saints without Pete Werner and Marcus May, and Cam Jordan only played 17 snaps, also no Marshawn Lattimore. They played Atlanta, Green Bay twice, Bucs, Raiders, Chargers, Seattle.

The only good defenses they faced are Baltimore, who absolutely smoked them. They did nothing. And Chicago twice, who both games, the Lions offense struggled outside of a late flurry of points against Chicago in the first game. So now they go against Denver. That is a decent defense. And the Lions have yet to put together a, you know,

start to finish good performance against an elite defense. And when you start looking at their offense as it's constructed, it relies on a mediocre quarterback in a system that functions. And that's the type of offense that can struggle when they play a good defense. So if you believe that the Broncos defense, which is now put together like seven good performances, including against quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, I'm very skeptical that the Lions offense can do that part to get to the over here. Where are we at in terms of restoring the roar has it been restored connor is this is this a where's that guy in your mentions why has he not been adding you after that yeah it's been a quiet

couple of weeks from the uh you know from the lions fan base which yeah like i wasn't i didn't really say much bad about the lions but yeah they they grabbed a couple things and they've been quiet they've been really quiet yeah i do want to add to the broncos run defense is still not very good allowing you know five and a half yards per carry to opposing running backs which i think can shift the tides a little bit here if you give golf like a lot of support on the ground you know play action i think you probably get going a little bit more too so i think there are more ways for detroit's offense to get going than like other teams, I think in this spot. But yeah, so I don't know.

That's kind of, kind of my angles there, but again, still lean over Detroit here. Yeah. Lions score 30 with golf throwing for 160 yards. Like, yeah,

that could totally happen. Yeah. Yeah. That's a, that was the last weather game for the lions too. So they should be in terms of like cold weather golf. Like we've, that's kind of done for the year at this point. We'll see what happens to the playoffs,

but in terms of the regular season stuff. So we'll see. All right, next, Tampa Bay on the road in Green Bay. This is a battle of the bays. We used to get this one twice a year before realignment a very long time ago. I don't think Connor is probably not even alive. The Packers win streak came to an end, obviously, on Monday night.

Favor, though, again here against the Bucs. You should shop because we're between looking around between three, but shaded a three and a half. There are some full three and a halfs out there in the market, too. The under has been a popular look as well. We had 43 and a half early, and then we're looking at, you know, 41 and a half, 42 most commonly out there currently. Connor, any thoughts on the Bucs and Packers here? Yeah, I kind of disagree. I like the over here. I think over 41 and a half is a pretty solid look for a couple of reasons. I think that this Green Bay offense that kind of

struggled, we saw recently Jordan Love had like his lowest yards per attempt. But I think a lot of that was just trying to mitigate the Giants like insane propensity of blitzing. And like a lot of those jet sweeps and like pitches and things like that that they were doing was just to try and kind of get around that. And so I think that we see in this spot here, the Packers go back to trying to attack this team deep downfield.

Tampa Bay, 28th in pass EPA per play, 31st in explosive pass rate since their week five by. Tampa Bay along, 65% completion rate, 8.3 yards per attempt. So I think that maybe if they're getting a little healthier that you could make a case for the defense. But I think that Green Bay should have more success through the air here. And Tampa Bay, I don't think they're a particularly good running team, but this Green Bay run defense has been pretty bad overall.

And I do think that there are some outs for them to have some success passing the ball where this Packers team, I mean, like they have talent, but they just continuously seem to like underperform in certain situations, I think, in their pass defense. So I think in this spot here that we see, you know, a little bit more than 41 points. So I think 41 is a pretty interesting look. I don't know if I'd play the 43 and a half to open.

I can understand why it came down a little bit but i think there are multiple outs for each offense to get going here yeah massive injury report here i think for both sides i think it makes it really crucial to handicap this one in detail in my opinion like i mean the buck side defensively you had vita vea missed last week i'm gonna get a sense of where he is as the week goes on and then then both corners again, continuously, you know, Carlton Davis, Jamal Dean, just rotating games off. It's kind of a mess there. And then on the Green Bay side as well. I mean, Christian Watson, I think we don't know what that's going on. That seems like a multi-week hamstring injury, considering that that's an injury that happens often for him aaron jones probably

back but we'll see what happens there um don tavian wicks got dinged up with a high ankle i don't know what's going to happen with him so like no watson and wicks kind of changes the dynamic can they really take advantage of like the bucks weakness to be able to attack deep if it's just jayden reed and romeo dobbs and uh you know uh you know tight ends like it's just kind of uh it's a mess it's a bad matchup if they were healthy i'd be all about that for sure and then defensively quay walker um jair alexander's been missing a bunch of time too so i think injuries on both sides here matter quite a bit clark what are your thoughts on this one yeah i i don't really see how you can

go under here after watching the the defensive abomination that joe barry put on the field against the Giants. But are you worried about weather? Yeah, there are weather concerns. There's projected mile-an-hour winds, and it's cold and lambo. I don't think there's going to be any rain or snow, but you never really know this far out. And it is that time of year, that turf or whatever the field is in Green Bay.

It can be tough for opposing offenses to really get going. So there's a little bit of back and forth there. This game is full of conflicting angles for me. I, you know, I do think Love will bounce back. I thought that he played better than kind of the box score indicated on that Monday night game. But like you said, he's missing key weapons. And so how much can he really do? And the Bucks, you know, do blitz a lot. And I think the Giants blitz really disrupted some of the stuff that the Packers wanted to do. You know, the Packers rely on a strong offensive line, and that has a disadvantage against

teams that send multiple pass rushers, because it doesn't matter how good your offensive line is. If you're sending six, seven guys, you just can't block them all. So it negates the advantage that the Packers have, which is just winning straight up on the offensive line. So that's kind of a, you know, counter counter angles that go into each other. And then on the other side, like, like I said, the Packers defense sucks, but if it is windy, you know, how much of the Bucks offense this year has been Baker Mayfield making downfield

throws, especially to Mike Evans. Like if that's just not quite clicking, you know, it's, it's a little bit tougher to make those throws. This Bucks defense or offense becomes compressed. And now you're relying on the run game and Baker Mayfield short passing, not a situation that I want to get heavily involved in. So this, this game has conflicting angles for me all over the place. I think the weather report will settle on whether or not I want to get

involved, but right now I'm just kind of outside looking in. Yeah. I mean, again, this is really hard obviously to do on a Wednesday afternoon. Nothing that i see in the weather it makes it look problematic because it looks clean you know in terms of like kind of sunny upper 30s maybe a little wind but not like problematic wind so i think you guys lean on the on the over especially if we get encouraging injury news especially on the green bay side i think makes a ton of sense because we're dealing with a pretty healthy relative uh relatively healthy Bucks offense so they should

be able to kind of fight back too like the injuries on the defensive side for Green Bay only help that cause so all right uh the more interesting games in the slate here we will get going here Dallas is on the road in Buffalo this one is uh should be a good one still below three it's moved a little bit today we're at buffalo minus two and a half some one and a half and twos depending on the shop so take a look there uh the over is also taking some action we are up from 48 and a half there are 50 and a half 51s on the board as well it was obviously great game for dallas that kind of answered the bell there a little bit you're like like, like if you win against the Eagles and again,

it was a tough spot for the Eagles. We talked about that at length last week, but we just seen Dallas kind of pick on weaker opponents. You need to add a win like that to the resume. I think to quiet some of the doubters out there. And now we have the next chance to do that is now we have home road splits. So if you're a Dallas hater, like you're looking for something,

Dallas has been awesome at home. They're seven and old. They're averaging 40 points a game. They are 3-3 on the road, and they're averaging 23.7 points per game. Now, that's mostly noise. I think we would all agree with that. Not uncommon for teams to play better at home than they would be to play on the road. And again, obviously, controlled elements in Dallas, all those things.

But again, it's getting increasingly difficult to poke holes in Dallas as a contender, especially if they go on the road here in Buffalo and take care of things here. Connor, I'll let you get started with this one. Yeah, I have a couple of pretty strong plays here. I like Dallas's offense to keep rolling here against Buffalo. And I know that I talked about how I still think the Buffalo Bills defense is bad last week. You know, I don't think that last week did a whole lot to change my mind. I think it more of just reiterated the downside of the Chiefs offense from time to time with kind of their current slate and everything they have going on. And I mean, again, Kedarious Tony doesn't line up a quarter inch offsides.

He had no, that had no impact on the play. Again, I get it didn't happen, but you know, that's 24 points instead of 17. I think that this game looks a little bit different in hindsight. So I'm excited about this Dallas offense here against the Bills. I really think that 23 and a half is pretty low as a team total here. We're looking at this Bills team. It has been able to get decent pressure basically all season, but Dak's been good against pressure. He's like top five in completion rate has been still been slinging at yards, you know, his yards, uh, per attempt has still been really good, but you can't really say that in the reverse though. So on the other

side here, Dallas is defensively getting a lot of pressure and they, um, you know, Josh Allen was pressured nearly 50% of his dropbacks against the chiefs and put together one of his worst performances in terms of completion rate, especially down the stretch. And so I think that that could cause some issues here. That being said, if he can buy time, if they do design runs, kind of counteract some of the pressure that Dallas can bring, you know, like I think that there's plenty of ways here because they don't get pressure. I mean, Dallas is even, again, we talked about this last week. They're very volatile. Like they are problematic at times. They're chaotic. They can cause issues, but they're not necessarily consistent on a play to play basis.

So I think how that lines up with Josh Allen is very unique because Josh Allen as a player has a lot of the same similarities in the offensive side. So initially my lean was on the over early, but now I think I'm just more opted to play the team total for Dallas. And then if I had to pick a side, I would play Dallas here at plus money on the money line. But I think I prefer the team to all here because I think that if the Bills can figure it out offensively, which

Joe Brady has done largely nothing short of that so far, I think that this is a good spot here for Dallas to get going. See mostly 24 and a half out there now with some of the movement today. Are you still good there? What are your thoughts? Because now we've taken the 24 away, basically, right? 23.5 24 is very alive, but now 24.5 We probably need to get to 27, basically Yeah, it kind of sucks. DraftKings had Like a minus 120, 23.5

But I was able to get down $35 So it doesn't really count I didn't even bother. I just canceled it out I'm like, whatever, I'll wait I think Caesars had like a 24.5 at even money Probably around there. I think I'd still play it honestly i just i'm very bullish on the on the game outlook here especially for the dallas side uh it makes sense you touched on it clark at the top i mean for the betterment of our playoff

football watching experience we need to be cheering for the bills here because we desperately need buffalo in the playoffs yes we have some like buffalo futures and week 14 was a good week for them. Obviously, a big win against Kansas City. Steelers, Colts, Texans all lost. That helps quite a bit here. Still some challenging games on the schedule, obviously, with the Dolphins coming up as well, I think, here.

So I think key injuries on Buffalo's side, which I think is impactful, too. A.J. Epinesa dinged up a little bit. Micah Hyde down. Taylor Rapp is back, so that helps a little bit. And then Don Qu um dinged up a little bit micah hyde uh down uh taylor rap is back so that helps a little bit and then don't kikade banged up i know we have um you know dawson knock coming back but like the dynamic that dalton kinkade brings and some of the things that happened with this offense with kinkade and how they kind of you know kind of shied away from the two tight end stuff obviously went to more three receiver type stuff.

And I think they were a little bit more dynamic. I'm interested to see what happens here with the shift, especially if Kincaid ends up missing here with Knox back. And that leads to a little bit more of ball control running. James Cook's got going a little bit here. So what are your thoughts on this one? Should be a good one. Yeah, I'm excited about this game.

I have kind of conflicting futures positions here because I have Cowboys to win the division and then Bills to make a deep playoff run. So I'm kind of one of those is losing some equity this week. It should be a great game. And sometimes I have an angle that I really like and I want to play, but it's not the right time. And you have to be patient to find the right spot to play that angle. And I think the Cowboys are overrated. Their winning against the Eagles was impressive, no doubt. The drive before halftime to really put the game away at halftime was really impressive, scoring a touchdown like that. But I graded the game,

and by my metrics, the Eagles were the better team, which might sound crazy because of the final score. But I don't tend to penalize things like losing a fumble on a positive first down play, which happened to the Eagles three different times in that game. I mean, it was the reversal of what happened in the Vikings Eagles game where the Vikings lost a bunch of fumbles on positive plays that just really swung the game. And so, you know, you love, you love to see that, that luck kind of even out except when you're on the losing end of the bed

side on both games. But, but the, the Eagles were moving were moving the ball well i mean they got in the red zone you know jalen hurts fumbles you know there's another drive where i think it was aj brown on fumbled on a catch um and or devonta smith and so the cowboys defense still is not proving to me that they can stop a good offense from scoring and that that's my issue here is I think the Bills are going to score. But I also was not impressed with the Bills last week. I thought that their win against the Chiefs was just not impressive. They had plenty of opportunities to put that game away and just didn't. And it wasn't because of fluky things like turnovers, things like that. It was they weren't getting the job done against a defense that had several

injuries. You know, the Chiefs offense had injuries. The Chiefs offense had injuries. The Chiefs got that play negated that could have won the game. So this isn't the spot where I think, okay, we need to get on the bills because the Cowboys are overrated. This is the spot where I think with two teams that are probably overrated in the market right now,

maybe looking to fade the winner, depending on what happens in this game and what the prices are next week. That might be my way to play it. But for now, I'm kind of enjoying the, the battle back and forth on this price. I think I'll probably end up with a teaser position on the Cowboys. Cause I think this should be a tight game.

Dolphins, lions commanders on deck for the Cowboys. If you were looking to, to get on the other side of that, which is interesting, depending on what's going on with the, you know, with the health of,

of Miami at the time, that would probably be your, your best bet to explore that but yeah this is my super bowl pick at the start of the year i'm hoping for a really good football game um still possible to be honest i mean i think we all agree that the bills are still very much a viable team in the afc and afc that i think is not super impressive um you know we'll get to i think some of those uh those main teams here in the next one so uh baltimore is on the road in jacksonville this is our sunday nighter the ravens here three point favorites uh again shaded the three and a half there's another spot maybe the worst weather of the week but again we are we had a bunch of like definitely bad weather last week on wednesday when we recorded and it just didn't really happen so i think there's some could be some overreaction here

currently uh does look like wind and rain again like baltimore had last week and that has been a factor in the total which has dipped a little bit here there are currently 42 and a half 43s out there shop around if you have a preference look wins are wins ravens have won the past few weeks top competitors in the afc have stubbed their toe a little bit so now they are so so this one is is super exciting game super important for both teams like what i worry about with the ravens is last week against the rams they tended their offense looked a little dysfunctional and and out of a little disjointed. Like it was either deep bombs against blown coverages that didn't even look good. Right.

Lamar is throwing to Isaiah likely on the sideline, kind of misses the throw. OBJ is, you know, juking people out of their shoes. Lamar is throwing kind of inconsistently good passes downfield. And then a bunch of deep shots that just had no shot of hitting. And luckily enough, they hit on enough of those to beat the Rams. But that's not really the type of offense that I want to see in a team running, especially heading into the later months in the playoffs. And as weather becomes a factor, you've got to have that consistent, you know, short game available.

And the Ravens didn't have it. So I'm worried about that. But the Jaguars defense has also kind of fallen off a cliff. And there were several plays against the Browns where Joe Flacco was able to just take advantage of a blown coverage. So now we've got a team that loves to take advantage of blown coverages playing as a team that can blow coverages. And so I think weather is going to have a big impact on this game because if the weather

is clear, the Ravens should be scoring enough points to cover the spread and get the total over this kind of low number of 43. But if the weather is bad, obviously that's, you know, over tickets and big favorite tickets are not typically what you want. So this is another one where I'm waiting on the weather. And I would love to back the Jags in sort of a, you know, circling the wagons, taking care of business in a game they need, but without Christian Kirk and without some of the offensive linemen against this defense, I just don't have the confidence. Um, and so this is a Ravens or pass over a pass, depending on the weather for me. Yeah, I totally agree. That was all by the way, that was all the time from Newton. Cause I'm sure that he had accidentally muted and

then looked off screen that his notes and then came back and was still talking. That was amazing. Um, you know, I might, I might just personally clip that and tweet it out anyways because it looked like you were ad-libbing him. So that was awesome. So yeah, Tech Lord Newton back at it again. Still can't hear you, but it's rough. I agree, though. I love the Ravens here at three.

I think when I was handicapping it, it was like three and a half most spots, but creeping towards three, it's kind of like bouncing back and forth i kind of like a mirror three i don't know i think that it seems like we something we talked about the beginning is that like the ravens defense has some talented players but overall as a unit there are some question marks and i think that periodically shows up uh from time to time and i think that that was like kind of what happened last week with uh you know stafford hitting a couple of big plays, like, you know, just being able to kind of push the ball downfield specifically. And like, I worry about this Jags team at times because Trevor Lawrence still just seems to find a way. Like, I think that in retrospect, like his performance was

not smooth, but, uh, you know, at the end of the day, like being able to throw over 250 yards on like a bum ankle, a bum knee without Christian Kirk, you know, against the Browns defense, even though they're banged up. Like there are some things that I thought were impressive. But like in this spot here, I think this Ravens defense is just like too much to overcome. And the offense should have plenty of success against the Jags here against the Jags defense, too. That like hasn't really been playing as good of run defense as we saw earlier. So I think that kind of adds an extra out here. So, Newton, are you back or are you? could have run defense as we saw earlier so i think that kind of adds an extra out here so um

newton are you back or are you are you uh i was looking at the raven schedule and not looking at you bozos i don't know what happened i was probably funny because i'm just talking like i had no idea i just kicked it to clark and i'm like clark no no that's uh that's on me so i had a lot of great things to say i'm not even going to share them with you guys but uh well i think you got to circle back you gotta fire you gotta fire him off because uh i did not i was i was just saying that you know i think that the i think that maybe the ravens are a little bit overrated at this point um you know but they're 10 and 3 and like wins are wins but i just don't know that the jags are currently constructed with all the injuries they have especially offensively i just don't know that the Jags are currently constructed with all the injuries they have, especially offensively.

I just don't know that they're equipped to take advantage. This would be a nice spot if we had a healthy Jags team where I'd be very interested, especially at home. I was just kind of staying like, look, yeah, they won. They didn't look very good against the Chargers, depending on the buy. That wasn't great. They were up three with a minute and a half left. And then that late Zay Jones touchdown. And then like last week it took overtime against the Rams. And like they get like,

if you're the number one team in the AFC, you get the ball to start overtime. Like you put in a game that you probably shouldn't be in overtime against that team. And again, like we know that Matthew Stafford and the Rams are better and exciting when, when he's on the field,

but they go three and out to start that overtime. It's not great. The Rams drive a little bit, and then they're having a punt, and then obviously that punt return gets taken back for a touchdown. Like, yeah, it's a win. Yeah, you hang 38 points up. But, like, I don't know. I just want to see better.

Now, Lamar's made some plays, and he had some great, great plays in that game. That's not a defense that I'm overly impressed with. But, again, neither is Jacksonville. It just is an interesting thing here, just X and O and o wise we know what the ravens want to do they want to run the football teams skew very heavy pass against jacksville um i'm just interested to see kind of what they do here if there are no conditions and it doesn't lead to like just a naturally run center game because of the weather like what's's the Ravens game plan. Do they, do they run the ball over and over again against the team that is actually okay.

Stopping the run when you can throw all over Jacksonville. So that's going to be interesting to me. Hopefully we don't have any weather. But yeah, I don't. Yeah. Although last week, weather was kind of a factor and the Rams are kind of built the same way

and they pass the ball a lot. So if that was any indication, I would expect that. It, this is an interesting market because when there's one side, like I don't believe in public betting splits, like you get all this data that is just a fraction of the actual action. And it's like skewed because it was better than a different number. And you don't have that.

They don't mean anything, but the concept behind it is valid, which is if there's a side that makes a lot more sense than the other side at the current number, then there's probably some support for the other side that is being put in the market by sharp bettors. And this is one of the situations where I can't really see the appetite for people wanting to bet Jacksonville. And yet the line has come down from three and a half towards the three. And so to me, that's kind of like a stay away signal. I don't have strong feelings on the game. If I could articulate a good reason to bet the Jaguars, then maybe I could find my way to it. But just because the Ravens are the obvious side and the money's kind of going the other way, it's just, okay, have fun, big bettors and see what happens.

Yeah, that's fair. I do want to touch too briefly on what you mentioned noon. And it's like with Lamar Jackson, the question that I, in my mind, he hasn't really answered a lot of times, like you talked about in, you know, the overtime, you get the ball first is like, when you need like a game winning drive, when you need like to throw from behind or something like that, he just hasn't answered that question very often like whether it's in the playoffs whether it's you know at certain times periodically periodically throughout his career he's incredible in the regular season he's super dynamic he is a very good passer in my mind in a lot of scenarios it's just like in those high leverage situations he hasn't always answered the buck yet uh and so although i'm

yeah i don't know i mean you know you know when he did do that when last year against the ravens okay he drove he drove down they were down by i don't know if it was down by six or down by seven it was like i wasn't against the ravens you're not against who against he said who is he playing against the ravens yeah you said my little arm yeah i'm talking about the mark oh i think it's my were talking about Trevor Lawrence. Oh, okay. Oh, no, no, no. Trevor Lawrence can do that. Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, yeah. Lawrence can do that. Okay.

Yeah, no, I agree with you. We haven't seen Lamar, yeah, winning crunch time in a big game. Yeah, sure. Yeah, I think there was like the... Scrimmages. Internal scrimmages, I thought. Yeah, the Chiefs game,

maybe a couple years ago, he had like a semi-game winning drive but then lost, I think. Or it was like 36-33 or something like that. I don't remember. No, it was yeah the chiefs were gonna win and then edwards either fumbled the ball or something and set up a short field for the ravens to win right there you go so we'll see something that should do maybe in the playoffs i mean it's not really that relevant here but uh it's just something that crossed my mind when you brought that up because it's just like

i i can't really think of very many examples of what happened yeah even even last week right you got this big overtime and three and out and they went on a proper touchdown tylen wallace devy uh and dynasty god the guy who's supposed to be like a you know special player of years to come and i guess this was his moment as someone who desperately needed one more earnest jones uh tackle i was very very heartbroken to see that ball get uh returned to uh to end that game it was pretty pretty painful and the three and out was also very painful like just sustain a drive the guy's gonna get one more tackle all right uh next we have uh philly on the road in seattle eagles of i think finally made it to the other side of their murder's row schedule

like i mean i think a cross-country trip to seattle isn't necessarily great uh island game in that environment against that crowd they are obviously favorites here bouncing around between three and a half and four and a half totals doing the same 47 48 so shop around um you know clark let you talk about this one uh you know kind of back the eagles last week they kind of fell back a little bit seattle's a team that we've all been mixed on at times connor you know try to sell us in some super bowl futures earlier that did not work but they've also been dealing with a massive schedule i mean like he gets two niners game sandwich with a cowboys game that's that's tough and then you got the eagles too so that you know seahawks haven't had a great schedule here either. What are your thoughts, Clark?

Yeah. Yeah. My, my under nine wins ticket looked really bad early on, but now it's coming back to life. You know, this is similar to the Cowboys bills game in that I want to play an angle, but I have to wait. And that is the inverse of what I said about Dallas. I think, I think the Eagles are a little bit better than people give them credit for. I haven't really seen a massive drop off in their play. Again, you know, scoreboard against Dallas kind of confirms for the people that think that the Eagles are frauds, that they're frauds. Frauds is too strong. The Eagles were overrated.

Yes, absolutely. But they're still one of the best teams in the NFC. They're constructed in a way that they can win. Like their offensive line just dominates. Jalen Hurts is all the time in the world back there. And he's got two really good receivers downfield that he can throw to. And I haven't seen anything to indicate that they're not going to be able to do what they did last year on offense or what they've done this year so far.

The defense is, again, probably similar to what it was last year, but faced a much tougher schedule, which makes them look worse. And so I kind of want to find ways to back the Eagles, but on the road on Monday night against a Seattle team, getting more than a field goal that I think is a pretty decent Seattle team when healthy, and they are finally healthy if Gino can play, we'll see about the quarterback situation. But this isn't the spot where I want to hammer Eagles to win by more than a touchdown on the road in Seattle. This is a let's wait and see. The loser of this game will probably come out underrated depending on what happens in the game.

And if it's Gino Smith that gets if he gets ruled out and if it's Drew Locke playing, I could see this number go up and potentially promote some interest on the Seahawks, because I think the drop off from from Geno Smith to Duloc is not that dramatic this year. But this is probably just going to be another game that I pass and wait for more evidence, and then maybe act on it next week. But super interesting game, super important game for both teams. I kind of hope the Eagles can win just to kind of bury the Seahawks,

but it's not something that I'm looking to get more involved in This does feel like a Geno line, Connor Just in terms of maybe what we've heard so far And I think Clark's right If we did have some news that didn't go that well I think we would probably see some movement there Interesting thought And maybe really hard to disagree with

That maybe the difference between Drew Locke and Geno Isn't that massive this year Drew Locke wasn't great against the Niners, but damn Gino's not been great this season either. So what are your thoughts here? Yeah. If we get Gino here, I'm going to play some of the, the over in this game for a couple of reasons. Um, so Seahawks, as we've talked about before, lead the league in zone coverage rate at this point, I think it's like 84% or something like that. Jalen hurts against zone zone coverage this year, 7.6 yards per attempt, but a 70% completion rate.

He's completing 6.3% completion percentage over expectation. If you compare that to against man defenses this year, he's completing just 57.9% of his passes, 7 yards per attempt, negative.4 completion percentage over expectation. Essentially, and I think Ben Solak tweeted about it, when teams play cover zero against the Eagles, they just haven't had an answer like it's like one of those things that's really they've really struggled with at times and so seattle does none of that uh like

they just play cover three some cover like cover six occasionally as well so it's just like all the like they're playing a ton of zone jaylen has been good against that and i think that gino will have success uh against seagulls defense we've talked about it basically every week anyone who's competent i think who can push the ball downfield could have like a DK Metcalf bounce back week. I think there's a lot of different ways Seattle gets there. So 47 and a half is a little bit light in my mind if we're getting Geno because, again, I think that like, not to mention,

the Eagles I think will be able to run the ball as well. Seattle's run defense played super well early on last few weeks. Hasn't played all that particularly well. And then this Eagles run defense has played well, but they show weakness like on outside runs here and there as well so i again i think there's like multiple angles where each team can't have success offensively in this game it's just a matter of like what does injury report look like you know who's playing and then i just think i'll have a little bit more certainty on whether i want to back and over here yeah over beeline too again but this is another we had an extra day for in terms of weather report

but i think we have rain in the forecast here as well so i don't know if we have rain and wind or what that looks like rain in seattle uh shocker but you know we've seen the the eagles defense or the eagles offense you know hang some crooked numbers even in rain this season the bills game obviously was one that we liked quite a bit and and this wouldn't feel much different. So we also have to watch Devin Witherspoon. That could be an injury that could matter quite a bit for Seattle side in terms of being pro Eagles offense as well. So we'll watch that one. All right, what else do we like here for Week 15?

Full slate, guys. I mean, nothing, no bye weeks. Anything else that's caught your eye, Clark? Anything that you've got down on that's maybe still actionable for people? Yeah. I mean, I'm looking to get involved in the Browns-Bears game on the under and the Bears side. So it looks like there's still some plus 300, plus 100 out there on the Bears. I like that.

I like the money line. It was plus 150. I think you'll probably still get that. And then the under as well, because I want to fade this Browns offense. The scoreboard lit up last week against the Jaguars, but I don't think a lot of people watched that game. And the offense was very much not impressive. Joe Flacco, not a good quarterback. Like people talking about, oh, he's the best quarterback that Browns have had. I think I said that last week uh that was more just a joke about Deshaun Watson but I think people are saying it sincerely now um and I think that's ridiculous because um not okay a couple

things about this one is he missed so many throws like just wild wild misses um but there were so many blown coverages that he just kind of the numbers look good they also had 14 drives in that game because there was so much back and forth. And when you have that many drives, you just have so many opportunities. But when he's in the pocket, he wants to get rid of the ball so quickly because he hates getting hit at this age. This was something that was true when he played for New York as well. And they just lost another offensive tackle for the season, the third in the year, DeJuan Jones.

And their center, Ethan Pochek, also was out in that game. He may not play. Either way, there's a cluster injury in the offensive line going against the Bears defense that has been playing very well for a lot of weeks now, like every single week. It's like, oh, the Bears defense actually really good. So Joe Flock is going to be under pressure, you know, forcing throws out there into a secondary that has been killing it. And so this is an offense that I want to fade in all forms. So team total under, Chicago money line, Chicago spread, game under, everything. Connor, the Bears good?

Yeah, their defense is solid. I'm not going to lie. Their defense is good. And I just cannot get behind. Everyone's talking about how they're going to keep Justin Fields. They're going to pass on Caleb Williams. Like I would, I've said this since like week two, like there's like a 2% chance of that happening. Like there is such a low chance of that happening for so many financial reasons, for so many other reasons beyond Justin Fields being good or not good. Like that's just like not even that relevant unless he becomes like a

borderline MVP candidate in the next like four weeks, which is not going to happen. Like it's just, he can't lead the franchise. So everyone's like, well, what if we give him a better coach and add more stuff around him and give him a better offensive line?

Like, you know how many ifs that is in three sentences you need to do in one off season. Now you're paying him a big contract. It's just like complete baloney. Like, it's just like you live in la la land if you're not paying you're not paying attention if you think that's what's gonna happen anyways um i do agree the bears

decide here i did bet the bears um and cleveland's defense beat the shit too it's not like you're getting like cleveland's defense at full steam like we had a week one and they're missing a couple guys there um i like the giant saints under, I think that's kind of fun. I mean, Derek Carr is just complete garbage. He's, you know, literally his whole team hates him. His offensive line's yelling at him. He's literally like dumping the ball down whenever he can, still dealing with injuries. They're going to run the ball a bunch. Taysom Hill's coming back. They elevated another running back. Tommy DeVito, I mean, he played really well, but I mean, the saints defense, I think can be a little bit more physical with them.

Stop the run a little bit more than they did against Saquon give, you know, DeVito a little bit more problems in the passing game. So I, I mean, I'm just expecting a very low scoring, slow, boring game here, you know, on both sides. So I think that that's kind of my angle here. It's like we're looking at 38. So I think the market disagrees with me here. It looked like it opened at 36 and a half up to 38 but um yeah i just don't really see it on either side here uh getting it done offensively why are the patriots being bet heavily you say why well yeah we've gone from 10 like we touch an eight uh eight and a half

seven and a half, seven and a half out there. You love to see it. You love to see it when you have pets plus 10 in pocket. It is. Uh, I mean, we are now in like lovely teaser zone for Kansas city,

uh, to win this game, uh, you know, by less than a field goal. If you want to put, you know, if you like another teaser,

like look, and I know what's going on with the chiefs offense and i know the patriots defense has been okay but man things are like you want to hit bottom lose in new england's uh at this time of year like i'd be very very surprised if the panic flags need to start flying absolutely absolutely so it's a nice nice spot where we're you know the minus eight oh uh eight and a half or like shaded just to to eight um which is just very very interesting to me i'm not sure if this is uh what to make of this necessarily same thing i mean i get the miami and the miami and the jets move you know there's obviously questions if tyreek is

playing the game continue to be cluster offensive line injuries for miami that's a problem the defense is a little bit beat up um that one collapsed quite a bit you know the last uh you know 36 hours or so we're down eight and a half there as well i mean the dolphins winning at home against the jets uh you know are we overrating one zach wilson game kind of feels like we are. That those feel like teaser legs. Clark, where are you out there? I'm not, I don't,

I have much more confidence in the chiefs teaser leg than the dolphins teaser leg. I think there's some real problems in the dolphins offense with all the offensive line injuries and Terry kill getting banged up seemingly every week. The jets defense is legit. And you know, like people, people do this all the time, right? It's the same people that think Brock Purdy is the MVP,

think that Zach Wilson is the worst quarterback in the league. Like your circumstances matter. And if you didn't believe it already, just look at how bad that offense was with Tim Boyle and Trevor Simeon. Like it was an offensive failure. It wasn't just Zach Wilson. So I think Zach Wilson's mobility gives the Jets offense just another element that is enough to keep them alive.

And if they, you go back to that first game between these two teams, and if Zach Wilson was playing quarterback in that game, I think it would have been a good game. And now I think the Jets are playing even better and the Dolphins are playing worse. So I do think that the jets are live uh to upset the dolphins get the jets get the w we get aaron rogers back with some motivation it's good for

the uh comeback player of the year bags maybe maybe this is what i need to be rooting for but that feels uh it seems just you know based off of where we've been in the season it jumps off the page in terms of uh just line movement of recent and where we've been with these these ball clubs so that one's a little bit interesting not surprising to see this commander's rams i was waiting on that one on monday that total is gone uh now it's up a point since we started the show even basically we're up to 50 and a half um that one continues to climb up there which makes a ton of sense here's the interesting thing there now though the rams are actually a pretty interesting club we know they want to throw the football but when you look at like splits with sean mcveigh when he's had a lead at all like if they have a three-point lead

they are one of the run heaviest teams in league they're like fourth and like run rates are like fourth lowest pass rate over expectation in games of the lead so if they get out here against the commanders like that doesn't mean this can't go over 50 and a half but this isn't going to be matthew stafford chucking it around in the second half it's going to be a crap ton of kyron williams um if that goes that way which actually can obviously you know deflate a total here and just kind of melt the clock because they're going to have success running against the commanders as well so that's what's interesting to me i thought it was interesting in the high 40s now we're climbing up to some other key numbers and that's a little

little rich but i get why we got there so that one's interesting to me um i we obviously don't know what's going on concussion wise with cj stroud but to see the texans um dogs against the titans i think is also interesting but again like clark you were on the titans this week uh is that interesting to you now that we have basically we're almost at three we are at three in some spots any thoughts on the titans there's a couple games that i just don't have an opinion because of the injury questions like they're significant injury questions i mean fundamental cj stroud davis mills is big uh nico collins

some guys in the defense for texans the titans are banged up right does jeffrey simmons come back the other game is the falcons panthers game like how many of those falcons offensive linemen are going to play they've they play basically the same five guys the entire year and we've seen teams like that always do well on offense now they've got three guys that potentially miss this game on the offensive line could be massive. So those, those kinds of questions are enough to, to just, you know, I'm in a waiting pattern and kind of waiting on those, on those news. Plus, I don't think we want to double count like what we saw from this Texans offense. Like if Stroud returns, like, I think this is a fully good opportunity to buy back even with decreased

weapons without Nico Collins, without Tank Dell, because I mean, that was like, you know, bad conditions against the jets. Like, you know, we knew that like that was a very easy predictable spot for them to not look good. And so, you know, I think that there's, there's not necessarily an awesome bounce back spot, but I think it's very viable here. So yeah, like two and a half, three. I mean, I just don't know what to do with Stroud. Cause it seems like he's still in protocol,

but he made progress today again on wednesday reporting this so uh definitely something to monitor there finding that december concussions uh hold a little less water than like september concussions just i think the return rate is like spiking right i'm not tracking that it's right it seems like it right early in the season we're like no that's the death sentence you're out and now it's like you know a lot of guys like active on saturday night and sunday morning and uh yeah who knows who knows what's going on so flimsy man concussion protocols like it just seems very like subjective um i don't know it's like they have a standard but it's like i don't know just whatever we were growing up the ways they did it were whack um like with you know different systems you had to remember

things and like do different you know tasks that like it's like not like they're scanning your brain like oh you're good to go like it's just like they have like little tests that they do that they run see how you're feeling and then you decide if you're good to go basically and they decided to spend enough time so yeah i mean they do have to get cleared by you know neurologists supposedly like i don't i don't claim to be an expert on the process but you know, neurologist, supposedly, like, I don't, I don't claim to be an expert on the process. But, you know, we also tend to find patterns that don't exist. And it's possible that the individual, like every concussion is so idiosyncratic, like, it's possible that the people that suffered concussions earlier in the year, like just weren't recovering quickly.

And so then we were like, Oh, I guess the concussion protocol is so strict now that nobody returns. And it was just a small sample that was statistically insignificant. So I don't know. It is what it is. And I'm not trying to guess at this point whether or not a player is playing. But TJ Watt did get in a full practice. So apparently a day short, he can still make it. Or no, I guess he played a Thursday. So that kind of makes sense.

But yeah, I don't know. He played through his first quarter first quarter concussion yeah i just put a visor on like it didn't happen i'm trying to react when i when i get the news you know it's i'm trying not to get stuck with bad tickets uh that's something i've been good at avoiding this year is like you know oh shit i got this ticket and now you know this happened that happened a bunch last year it was very frustrating this year has been good i actually got got, got one the other way. I, I bet the charge or the Raiders on the look ahead at plus four and a half. So now, now they're playing without Justin Herbert and the three point favorites.

So I feel good about that one. Yeah. I thought that was one of the best look at lines regardless, even without. Right. Yeah. Like I was, I played it for good reasons and then,

and then like, you know, bank error in your favor. Three point favorites with who a quarterback it doesn't matter yeah it's gonna be in no comment it's gonna be in i don't know girl aoc might be getting benched i don't know what those reports are like you're gonna come out on a wednesday of a week where you have a thursday game be like the starting quarterback might not be the starting like that's just not how it works like if they they wanted to bench him, they would have benched him after the game. The strangest reporting ever.

I looked at the article. So this Vic Taffer or whatever from the athletic wrote an article and he was like, he said, it's very likely that AOC gets benched. But then he also goes on in the next paragraph to say that if Jimmy Garoppolo goes out there and gets hurt, the Raiders are guaranteeing his base salary for next year, an additional $11.5 million. So how is Mark Davis not being like, shut the fuck up? Sit back down.

You're not playing. I'm not paying you $11 million to do nothing if you just say I'm not going to pay you. He's the most injury-prone player ever. Yeah, this is the car thing last year. They literally said the organization shut him down. It seems like they're aware. And what do you get? I mean, if you're the Raiders, what do you get i mean if you're the raiders

what do you get out of hoyer or jimmy like what do you what do you like you still need to evaluate aoc like you don't want to give up on him after you know four games or whatever like let him play out the season and if he sucks great move on but you're not you're not learning anything by playing jimmy g i do believe antonio pierce wants to try out maybe someone else just because he was trying to fight for his job and win. That can make sense to me logically. But yeah, I think that like the ownership needs to be like,

no, like this is, you can put Boyer out there if you want, but like you can't do, you can't put Jimmy G out there. So I don't know. I just thought the reporting was very interesting. You're not going to do it before the Thursday game.

You're going to do it after the Thursday game, when you have 10 days to prepare and get your new guy, you know, like synced up and practice. It just doesn't make any sense to me that they bench AOC. Yeah. You lost three straight. You lost three straight. You're sixth

in the draft order right now. Don't go messing it up with wins. I know they're not going to tank. I'm just saying evaluate what you have in your position to set yourself up to select another answer to the position next year. Just ride it out. I think AOC goes off

this week. I played a bunch of unders. Rushing unders actually. There was off-market unders before this report. Before this report. I'm praying that he plays five snaps and gets yanked after a bad pick six or something like that.

I don't agree with the reports either, but there were some nice numbers hanging out there. Chiefs-Cowboys teaser feels... I was going to say that, Noonan. That looks nice. Feels pretty automatic. What can go wrong?

Both lose. It was pretty good. Feels like I'm going to win by nine. All right, gents. Good stuff as always. Appreciate everyone hanging out and checking us out. Again, before you leave, make sure you subscribe to wherever you're listening,

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