Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 16 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 16! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 16 betting guide, and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft king sportsbook i'm ryan newton joins here as always by connor allen week 16 can't believe we're here at this point of the year to vacation coming up for you my friend uh what's going on yeah it's crazy season flying by uh headed off to mexico uh a little bit we obviously have the holidays coming up, so I think scheduling might be a little bit tough there. I think our Friday show will continue to power on for the most part. Wednesday show with Christmas Eve and Christmas, we'll figure it out. We'll tweet out any announcements there. But I think pretty good slate of games, some exciting teams.

And I think it's a year where it feels like there's not any one team where I'm like, Oh, this team's for sure winning the Super Bowl. I feel like you could tell me four or five different teams could win and I wouldn't be that surprised. Yeah. I mean, that's interesting. I think four or five, but I think that's actually maybe the cutoff too, right? Like, I don't think that there are a ton of teams that can win and maybe we can talk about that too. It is an interesting year because i can't really remember a scenario where there are so few playoff spots up for grabs at this point in the year like we touched on a little bit last week too really felt like a couple of really key games last week and the outcome was massive in terms of the actual playoff equity for those clubs. And now we're in a spot where for the most part,

especially in the AFC, you're jockeying for playoff positioning. And even that's kind of limited based off of how things go in division winners and such. And then in the NFC, you really are kind of locked in for the most part as well. You basically have the NFC West. It's kind of still wide open,

but everything even there still feels like it's just playoff positioning um you know it's still available overall in both conferences so that's kind of the interesting part but you just don't have these like if this then that scenario is to meet the playoffs which is kind of kind of wild i mean you never know there's some long shots we'll get into that here uh in this week's show i want to remind folks be about take 30 seconds to review the show. Helps other people find us. Keeps these free.

If you're watching on YouTube, the 444Bets YouTube channel, leave a comment. Let us know what your favorite bet is for the week. You can also find Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts. Head over to 444.com slash plans to scoop up the betting sub. Massively discounted at this point of the year, obviously, but we have a month plus, month and a half of bets still to go uh betting team rolling overall in the season has been uh just a fun roller coaster ride personally uh you've been

you know kicking ass i've just treaded water for a little bit barely up for most of the year uh finishing december very strong hopefully continuing that to uh you know make it look like you know had a great year all year even though that wasn't the case really so hey the end of the year it's all that matters be profitable at the end it is a uh marathon and not a sprint so uh hopefully you enjoyed last week's show we had uh dean over from profit x on if you're not familiar with that, check out that show. We'll get into some of that as well today. The Sports Exchange where if you're betting sides and totals, the best place to go.

If you have any questions, let us know. You can dig into the show notes for more information. We really recommend checking out last week's Wednesday game preview show for more information on what's going on with ProfitX. But today we're going to dig into a little bit of the futures market again, touch on that from a high level, see what changed last week heading into this week And then we're going to rock through real quick game by game Over a little bit of our thoughts, any leans, anything like that

Any thoughts we have across the board So excited for that here too Connor, where are we at? MVP, we had Superman go out and do Superman things, solidify what seems like to be kind of a runaway favorite of, at least in terms of the market. Lamar Jackson had a great game too, but now this kind of shifted a little bit where, you know,

we have a Josh Allen, you know, basically minus 900 minus a thousand for the most part. Is there a scenario where Josh Allen does not win MVP at this point? Honestly, I don't really think so. I think it's kind of done. I'm not really sure I'm ready to lay minus a thousand because that's basically in my mind,

just like he gets injured, then maybe there's a chance someone else wins. Yeah. But I think that's it. Like that's, that's literally it at this point. Now what's funny is if they Ravens-Bills game had happened like now instead of in the beginning of the season,

I'm not sure Josh Allen would be minus 1,000. Yeah, I mean, that's it. This is our whole point of the argument is these are such narrative-driven, end-of-the-year type of things that momentum just you know momentum can get um you can carry away because when you look even if you were to throw lamar statistically up against lamar last year there's no doubt that lamar is having a better statistical season but lamar was kind of a i don't know a relatively weak mvp candidate last year right it was like he was kind of the last man standing when all of the pieces ahead of him just kind of fell.

And he had, you know, they won in San Francisco, knocked off kind of two birds with one stone there with whatever was going on with Purdy versus CMC. Well, that kind of handled it. And all of a sudden there's Lamar. Yeah, I think it's definitely Lamar or Josh, but I'm kind of with you. I think you need a Josh Allen injury at this point and not a bet that you should be making at this point.

Defensive player of the year, it's kind of interesting how it's shaking out and there's some discrepancy in the marketplace. I felt like it was one of those spots that even though the Steelers didn't win, for TJ Watt to show up, hang a couple sacks in a big game like that, play pretty well. Kind of felt like he was going to be a runaway favorite, maybe into like the three or minus 300, minus 400 favorite. And then late in the game, gets an ankle injury. Now there's actual question marks about his availability for this week, how that could play out. And all of a sudden he's kind of stagnant from where he was last week,

even though I think he actually is a better candidate based off of some of the metrics and underlying stuff now. So what are your thoughts on Watt or the defensive player of the year market? Yeah, I think if he plays this week, he's actually not a bad bet at like minus 150. It looks like minus 160. I don't think that's a bad bet. We're getting into the time of year where I think you can start laying some juice.

The Steelers are going to make the playoffs. Um, I mean, well, the other candidates are fine, but no one, I think else really stands out too much. A guy that we did mention last week,

Nick Benito, uh, 40 to one had that crazy pick six for maybe Mitchell, uh, and is now seven to one. It's L almost certainly LCLV, but you never know if Watts injury turns out serious, then he has a chance at least. So, uh, I mean, shout out to us for talking about him at least. Um, and maybe if you want to go

further down the board again, like if, if TJ Watts injury somehow comes out to be really serious and he missed a couple of weeks, I think you probably just sprinkle the same guys we've talked about last time, which was Benito, Daniil Hunter, maybe Jonathan Grenard. I mean, that would be the three again. Just keep spraying it and I don't know, hope Watts out. But again, I don't think that's likely at this point. It seems like he's probably just going to play. Yeah, that is an interesting one.

I think it is Benito over Sertan on the same team and that he's kind of second in the marketplace. I think what's interesting here is that some of the other contenders as you mentioned you know Benito Island game Thursday night uh Will Anderson, Daniil Hunter Island game on Saturday um Chris Jones who I tried to make the case for a little bit last week same thing Island game on Saturday Jones Jones is down the board a little bit, but actually has a really nice matchup. The interior offensive line of the Texans has been absolutely awful all season long.

So the competition for Watt all has these spots where they're – and again, you'd be like, why does an island game matter? Who cares if it's buried on Sunday? And it's like, no, this is what happens this time of year. These, the what you do when everyone sees it can make these, you know, again, these things happen. The Benito was a splash play that changed that game. Right. So that's why that market on him drastically changes.

So he gets home a couple times on Thursday night, you know, certain probably he's playing, but he's dinged up a little bit. He got rolled on Thursday night. You know, Sertan probably is playing, but he's dinged up a little bit. He got rolled up on late. You know, either of those two guys make a play. Hunter, we know the tackle issues that the Chiefs are having. You're going to have either Carson Wentz or, more than likely, probably less than 100% Patrick Mahomes, who's been taking sacks at the highest rate of his career.

You know, all of a sudden these guys get pretty interesting, right? So Watt, I think is again, still the rightful favorite. I'm not going to advise that you lay it yet because again, I think you're going to have some of these spots on Thursday and Saturday where the contenders can kind of, you know, make their hay. Again, Grenard a little shorter than he was because he had a nice night on Monday night against Caleb and an Island game right on Monday night football while everyone's watching. So those things matter at this time of year.

Yep. For sure. Yeah. Good call. Offensive rookie of the year, kind of a dud for Bo Nix coming out of the buy. He's comfortably behind Jane Daniels. Now who was a runaway favorite Brock Bowers.

Again, great lay great number that you grabbed earlier but again some of that uh lclv that we've been talking about again brian thomas jr in any other year i think has a fantastic case and i think continues to have a great finish uh btj in the slot is absolutely cooking that's the thing that's happening now too with kirk out evan ingram out they're just feeding this guy. He's a stud. But is there a possibility where Jane Daniels doesn't win? I don't think so.

No, probably not. I think there was some interesting discourse around Michael Penix obviously getting his first start this week. I think if he had started maybe two or three games ago, like he's, I'd say, reasonably alive in like a five, six-game sample, especially given the time of year. At this point, I mean, we're talking about three games left. He would have to throw for 500 yards every week,

and the Falcons would have to make the playoffs, which I don't even think is possible at this point. We can touch on Penix. The Penix stuff is wild to me. It's wild. All of this hubbub around Penix and the excitement of Penix, there's so much revisionist history in my mind here. And again, it's independent of whatever happens coming up, right? Because let's, we can do this real quick.

Even before the Pennix to Atlanta pick, Pennix in a vacuum was not a prospect that people were super excited about there's a lot of the draft community had this guy comfortably outside the first rounds and there was like when we started to get a little bit of a drumbeat like hey maybe the raiders are interested in pennix or maybe there's another team that could be you know interested in selecting him we're like oh man what it seems like again it Again, it's an old prospect. Just like all of his receivers are going in like the first three rounds. They're all going to be good players. Is this really like an NFL quarterback?

And then on top of it, there was the Atlanta thing. Obviously, just organizationally questionable decisions, but whatever. And now everyone cannot get out of their own way to get so excited to watch michael pennix play football finally when no one in april was like oh yeah this guy is a lock first round pick everyone why aren't teams taking him he was nowhere in the mix for the like team needy quarterback teams early it was like wow someone took him over jj like like do we forget that that happened? That happened. You were there with me. That happens. Yeah. It was, that was pretty wild. I don't, yeah. I don't think he's going to be very good.

I would say that people are just tired of seeing Kirk cousins, like not even be able to do a stretch handoff without like tripping over himself and then you can't dry off his foot. So like, I think kind of in the way that people are excited to watch like James Winston winston uh i think that's what i at least that's where i'm at like i'm just like okay just throw the ball around the yard like i don't think he's gonna be very good but like at least it'll be fun um maybe i don't know they might just run the ball that was basically my notes for the game anyways um yeah and i do think too i thought there was like the whole like people are like celebrating the the results

over the process like paying kirk cousins 100 million dollars and then drafting quarterback eighth overall is just not a good decision like you know one of those was wrong like one of those decisions was wrong um either way no matter what happened and i think that that's important that we understand that and now just because it's kind of working out in a sense that like they have another quarterback to go to because their guy that they paid 100 million dollars isn't working out uh i don't think that that really validates the decision yeah it's just the weird discourse uh the last 24 hours where i'm even kind of building up to it again and i think to your point building up to it was more about what can we see with atlanta with kirk cousins out of the lineup because it's obviously been a struggle. But again, just in a vacuum, panics.

And again, this doesn't mean we're right or anyone was right or that the analyst community, draft community was correct anyway because quarterback evaluations are so hard. But the general consensus was that this is a borderline first-round pick based off of, again, multiple knee injuries, an older prospect, the system that he was playing in, all these things had. There were question marks for sure. And now everyone's just like, no, man, this is it.

This is where it's time. It's like, I don't remember. I don't remember you talking about this ever before. And now you're like, oh, yeah, this is the dude. And whatever. I don't know. Just a lot of it in the timeline. Who do they play?

They have the Giants this week, and then who do they have the next two weeks? Well, they still have a game against – no, because they played. No, Commanders, Falcons. I mean, Commanders, Panthers. Oh, man, this guy is going to get so much hype for next year. He's going to be the savior. I mean, this is going to be like, wow, Michael Penix, what a great pick.

He might be good. I mean, he might be good i mean he might be good but like yeah right now all sample right here is going to be like just pure confirmation bias on him being anyone who thinks he's good because these these defenses are mostly pretty ass so we'll see yeah i just think it's interesting again we don't know and that was always part of it especially quarterback it's such a hard position to evaluate. But the people that are very loud about it now were nowhere to be found in April. And I don't know.

I think it's interesting. I'm with you. I think Jane Daniels pretty much locked in. Again, borrowing an injury. They're going to the playoffs. He's just got enough highlight-level plays, too, where it's really hard to discount him. And Boenick's played so poorly last week, too,

even though he's making the playoffs as well. I think Jaden Daniels is kind of a nice chalk there. Defensive Rookie of the Year. I've seen some movement on this one even today. Jared Verst taking some money is getting significantly shorter. And part of that helps too because, again, they're going to make or they at least have a path to meet the playoffs where a couple weeks ago it looked hard.

Quinion Mitchell had kind of got in the mix too, depending on the book, was going to be the favorite. And I think that they're okay. Neither of them is not a runaway award. I don't really advise anyone laying the juice on either of these guys but i don't have a great long shot for you to chase at this point too i think chop robinson makes a ton of sense in a different year but again without them making the playoffs without him having crazy gaudy numbers it's hard to make for a case for him even though 22 on fanduel

probably is some uh it's just probably too long what are your thoughts on defensive rookie of the year yeah there's so there's like this um i don't know what they call like a survey that comes out every week that tom palacero does where he surveys uh like seven teams have you seen that no i know these draw polls are really impactful for like the NBA award markets. Yep. Yeah,

exactly. So including 17 general managers, he, and Jared verse was like, plus money today, like plus one 30 at some point this morning. Uh, he,

he got 15 of the 27 votes apparently per them, which I mean, doesn't really matter, but I think it just kind of, it's like a good gauge of the pulse of like where people are at. So that's why he's now minus one 30 minus one 60. I don't know. I mean, I, I really, I struggle with this award because I think it's probably a two man race, like you said, but like what, at this point, it's just going to rely on like, what, like one or two big plays in the next three games, probably like a big pick or a couple of

big sacks from Jared verse. Like, I don't know. Queen. I mentioned doesn't even really have it. It's just, he's been kind of an everyday starter on defense. That's, you know, one of the best in the league right now, playoff team,

arguably one of the best teams in the NFL. So that's kind of where he's at. That's why he's comfortably ahead of even, you know, Cooper to Jean and his own team because the G missed so much time. So, I mean, the guy has had some splash plays is still chargers. um you know cooper to gene and his own team because did he miss so much time so um i mean the guy has had some splash plays is taheep still uh chargers corner is actually you know it's a

pick sixes and he's played some pretty good ball when he's got in there uh he's a little interesting at 17 considering where the other guys are but again he you probably need another pick six like on thursday night on an island game or something like that. But possibility probably the best, you know, next guy on the board. But that's again, nothing that I really, again,

this is probably the most bettable one because the prices are not a control with the top two, but no real clear way to go, especially with the verse movement today. Comeback player of the year. It's interesting. You see Sam Donald now listed near the player of the year it's interesting you see sam donald now listed near the top of the board we had some discussions early in the year especially with our guy uh uh grp wins with the sam donald ticket and sam donald even a viable candidate based off of the

new i don't know wording around the expectation uh Joe Burrow, massive favorite, though. You can see minus 700 on FanDuel, even significantly shorter on MGM or something like that. So any thoughts on competition for Burrow? Yeah, I mean, at this point, it just seems like his award. I mean, even if he gets injured, like he's best stats, best everything. Like the next host is like, what, J.K. Dobbins? I mean, that's like guys not even alive. Like he's speaking to not even alive.

Did they have any tomorrow? Hamlin? Was that a question that was asked on the, uh, the Paris, uh, they don't have comeback player of the year order on it, which is so strange.

They have every other one. Maybe they just, they hate comeback player of the year as much as we do. Cause the award sucks. Yeah. Yeah. The word word sucks. So Burroughs, but so damn do. Because the award sucks. Yeah. Yeah, the award sucks. Burrow's been so damn good.

Deserves something, I guess, for having to deal with all that's gone on there. Where were we at on coach of the year? Kevin O'Connell, I believe, is the favorite. Was he in the award in that article as well? Yep. Yeah, he was like the front runner there oh so here you go it was a landslide for o'connell received 16 and a half votes 13 and a half more than any other candidate that makes sense so that's uh pretty hefty there what are

the odds on that right now because for some reason that doesn't pull on our odd screen yeah i don't know um yeah it's i i feel like see they they've been kind of like playing with all these different prices here i mean only minus 150 um it's probably a pretty good bet yeah i would say that that's probably a pretty good bet they just keep winning so i don't know we'll see i lost your mic there for a second i came back in at the end but but your mic definitely dropped off. Yeah, part of it is the schedule still is really tough. Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit.

So, you know, they're 12-2 right now. If they – I don't know. They'll still be 12-5 in the year. They're massively exceeding expectations with Sam Darnold quarterback who was again not supposed to be their quarterback this year so I still think he makes a ton of sense again the other candidate that I think is very interesting touched on it last week is Mike Tomlin but Tomlin same thing Baltimore Kansas City Cincinnati to finish an equally tough schedule as they kind of, as predicted,

stub their toe down the stretch here a little bit too. I mean, there's a chance that the Lions and Vikings are playing for, I mean, well, I guess the way they do it now is that only, well, no, I mean, they would be in the running for the one seed, right? That's how this works. I mean, depending on the Eagles. So, yeah, I don't know. That's eagles so yeah i don't know that's kind of interesting i don't know if i'm ready to lay minus 150 but i mean every game is going to matter

obviously um and they no matter what they've turned it around it's interesting in this article they said the second uh most votes actually went to mike tomlin at 15 to 1 over dan campbell so yeah see yeah what's the tomlin price now uh 15 to 1 15 okay yeah yeah that's the thing too right it's the same argument i guess that you would poking holes in the koc one is the pittsburgh schedule right they're six point dogs this week then they get kansas city on a short week and then uh you know cincinnati cincinnati can beat them in week 18, right? So, you know, tough schedule for Pittsburgh to finish. But, you know, if you're going to lay, that's probably a good way to go, would be Kevin O'Connell.

So, all right. Well, anything else? Anything on the team stuff or anything else that you had? I don't have any other notes there. But your Eagles, you know, moved substantially in the market. You're now basicallyagles you know moved substantially in the market um you're now basically you know almost the co-favorites of the bills to be a super bowl winner which i think is it's pretty interesting i mean the poor alliance has been absolutely brutal to watch the injuries

week after week we talked last couple weeks about how how can they continue to make up for all these injuries and then since the last time we were here elaine m McNeil, David Montgomery, and Carlton Davis all out pretty much for the year, which is just a wild run for them. So tough, tough run out for the Lions who have been awesome all season. It's interesting. I kind of like the Vikings or Packers in the NFC right now because obviously I've been the number one Eagles stand, but also a lot of that's stemmed from their schedule. Like I just, I mean,

there was going to be simply a better team than like virtually every team that they played for the last 10 weeks. And they've basically won every game. So, but at this point, like I've been really disappointed with their passing game. I've been really disappointed with Jalen hurts. If they can shut down the running game, Jalen hurts consistently struggles under pressure. The defense is good. I would say above average to good. They're probably not elite as like the metrics say, because they've been playing a bunch of shitty teams. So like, again, when you're playing the Lions offense, the Vikings offense, the Packers offense,

I feel pretty confident that one of these teams is going to have a pretty successful day on the Eagles in the playoffs. And so I'm not buying like Eagles at plus 480. I would much rather, and with the lines of other injuries, like five to one on them, I think is fine. But the Vikings or Packers, I think could end up being good. It's the same argument with the Bills. I mean, I think Josh Allen can beat anybody, but you can run on that football team and

if you you know keep them neutral for the first half and don't get in a situation where you're forced to just drop back a ton because they can generate pressure you can just continue to kind of dictate the game a little bit with with the game. And a lot of these teams up at the top, you know, other Superbowl contenders can do that. Green Bay loves to run the football when they're running really well. Minnesota can run the football. Baltimore can run the football. Kansas city can get a little bit healthy, Pacheco back, all those things they can run. Detroit could still run Philly.

So all the other really legit Superbowl contenders have the ability to just dominate on the ground and that's that's tough for for buffalo so well i wouldn't uh i would make them the favorite currently it's going to be interesting super bowl should be a very interesting matchup because i think they're going to get whoever comes out there uh if it is buffalo they're going to get one of these teams in the nfc that can run the football and it's going to be a big narrative going into super bowl week so and again status of mahomes is a big deal too, right? Because Buffalo still, the problem is right now they're locked in at two,

more than likely at this point with the schedule and all the things going on. The Ravens can win that division. Buffalo, Baltimore in that semifinals is tough, right? If you look at the Bills' slate of games this season, that 35-10 loss to the Ravens kind of jumps out at you. Ravens have kind of played well against the Bills the last handful of years. It feels like they have a recipe to kind of slow them down a little bit.

So the Bills finding a way to get that one seed, they should have no problem with their schedule. They got to pass twice in the Jets. So the Bills are going to win out. It's just a matter of what happens with KC for Buffalo to take advantage and see if they can get that number one seed. The Ravens secondary also played really well. They were getting ripped.

And then we mentioned it basically every week, and they just keep playing well. So I think this is another week here. I mean, playing against the Steelers Without George Pickens Like Russell Wilson Is just trash without George Pickens He had like what 8 yards in the first quarter Or something like that

The only reason he even had 100 was because Calvin Austin Had like an insane catch Like a crazy catch that was like for 45 yards Some of their metrics are so bonkers From last week because philly just didn't give him the ball they had like eight plays in the second half which is just absolutely wild it was great it was great as it ruts under better it was awesome yeah uh it was it was very interesting to see so yeah it's going to be a you know fun late january february in

terms of uh that but nothing in the you the betting market that I want to advise anyone to jump into now. All right. Anything else? Jump in the games? No, let's say let's rip through the games. Let's rip through. All right. First one, Denver on the road against the Chargers here on Thursday night.

Looks like two and a half basically across the market. There are some juicy threes on the Chargers. 42, 42 and a half for the most part. There are some juicy threes on the chargers, 42, 42 and a half for the most part is the total that we're looking at here. Again, who scores, how do they move the ball? I think is going to be really interesting. Again, this game felt like a couple of weeks ago is going to mean more, but again, it feels like it's a situation where we're talking about playoffs seating

versus making the playoffs. It's a win and you're in scenario it is that for denver uh it's almost that for the chargers here so um but again obviously these teams are playing full strength full out now at this point too any thoughts on denver and the chargers yeah i think riley moss's status matters a good bit just for like, I mean, basically just mean it's all led McConkie if he plays, uh, essentially because none of the outside guys will be able to do anything. And then,

um, on the other, on the other side here, like how the Broncos again, move the ball will be, uh, very interesting. Their running games hasn't really been going at all.

Uh, and bone X played, has played terribly the last two games. So, uh, for me, this game is basically stay away on the side in total and probably just play some props.

42.5 is too many. I think I would play under if I was looking to get some action there on Thursday nights. Two Saturday games. First, obviously, Kansas City and the Texans. This is obviously in Kansas City. We had a flip. I thought it was going to be really interesting to get plus money,

regardless of if it was Mahomes. I thought we would see maybe a three or three and a half, but obviously looks like Mahomes is trending towards playing. Full participant in practice usually does those types of things. Again, the Texans just continue to be really disappointing. Really average, I mean, below average showing. They got a win there in Miami, but the defense is playing okay. But how are they moving the football,

especially if Joe Mixon is dinged up here? What are your thoughts on Chiefs and Texans? It's just going to be Nico Collins. I mean, Kansas City plays a reasonably high rate of man, which I mean for man is like 30-something percent. I think on those plays, it's going to be a lot of Nico Collins. And then otherwise, I think the chiefs and what we're going to see is a lot of running. And then we're going to see a lot of short passes, probably to Travis Kelsey, probably to Deandre Hopkins, very little mobile

Mahomes are used to seeing run around. It's probably just be a lot of short passes, I'd guess trying to get the ball out quickly. So we'll see if that works. I kind of like the under in this game a little bit. I know it's just a little scary, but I just don't really see either team having too, too much success. And I expect both teams to try and run the ball, to be honest. Yeah, it's a low total, especially given when you think about the two teams and the rosters. But the way the Texans are playing offensively,

it just feels like they kind of get caught in the mud a little bit. So yeah, if you like the chiefs and you missed out on the plus money earlier in the week, maybe a Texans team total under, I think the game under is also probably pretty viable. The other Saturday game Saturday is great. We got college football playoffs.

We got Kevin Jennings. You know, we got two NFL games. It it's gonna be gonna be lovely uh steelers yeah kevin jennings free money right 225 man i mean jeez what are they doing it's like they haven't watched a single game all season man like this guy's i i have a whole brigade going to a bar on saturday at 11 a.m to watch kevin jennings put on another masterclass over 225 passing yards. I mean, it's going to be electric. I'm hyped.

Yeah. Absolutely. I messaged some friends that I know that will blindly tail and they'll like to throw down on some stuff. And I'm like, hey, early Merry Christmas. Don't say I didn't give you anything. Kevin Jennings over 225 and a half. Hammer it.

So, all right. The other Saturday's game, Steelers-Ravens. Again, the history here is obviously very interesting. Lamar has not performed very well historically against the Steelers. The first meeting was kind of a disappointing output, but a close game as always. Worst scenario here where the Ravens are basically six-point favorites across the board here.

You could see some different numbers here on ProfitX if you six point favorites across the board here. You could see some different numbers here on ProfitX if you wanted to buy down a little bit, but we can move that around and see what the six is, which is where we are pretty much in the market right now. Six minus 110, which makes sense. 44.5, 45.5 is the total here. Thoughts on Steelers-Ravens? Yeah, I mentioned it earlier. I think that, I mean, I'm going to be backing the Ravens here specifically if George Pickens doesn't go, which DNP again today on Wednesday,

DNP Tuesday hasn't played lately. At this point, I wouldn't expect him to play, to be honest. So I like the Ravens here and probably some Russ Unders as well. Yeah, it looked like he was doing some stuff on the side, but yeah, just the ability to run the football is going to be really hard for them, I think. Sustaining drives, creating splash plays in the passing game has been really non-existent without him.

And as you mentioned too, personnel changes in the back half for the Ravens has made a pretty massive difference at this point. So a lot of their season-long metrics can be almost thrown out the window. You should probably look at more short-term stuff since they've made those moves because they are not giving up the big explosives as they were early out the window. You should probably look at more short-term stuff since they've made those moves because they are not giving up the big explosives as they were early in the year.

So yeah, Ravens are nothing for me. Six, I think, is probably fine. But yeah, it's definitely Ravens are nothing for me. All right, next on the board, Browns at Bengals. Quarterback change that we had here. I know you jumped in early uh when the sevens were still around before the news came out that dorian thompson robinson would be getting the start jamis winston back to the bench again uh delivered from the pick sixes but not delivered

from the picks which is a problem here some more injuries mounting up to nick chubb out here for the uh the Browns. It's just been tough sledding for them at the end. Now they're at 7.5 with a total of 47 for the most part. There are some 46s, which would matter if you're looking at chasing over, kind of kicking around a key number. What are your thoughts here on Browns-Bengals? This is really tough because I think we saw the Browns just make a move

essentially because they felt like they had to. I'm not sure if they really could possibly believe the DTR is an upgrade. He's been nothing but pretty much terrible his entire career. We saw him in three starts last year. He was actually benched after completing just 48% of his passes for 134 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. Broncos did play better down the stretch in the second half of last season, but they were not a good defense last year overall. Broncos, Broncos did play better down the stretch in the second half of last season, but, uh, I mean, they were not good, a good defense last year overall. And so, you know, I, I don't think

DTR is very good and, but I would say the Cincinnati also has not been very good. Um, but they've been okay. It's bad quarterbacks, four picks against Tennessee last week, uh, 5.9 yards per attempt allowed to Cooper rush largely shut down the Raiders duo for the most part. I mean, they're up by a lot. So like they've been really bad against like good quarterbacks and teams that are competent at passing. I'm just not sure that,

that, uh, Browns can competently like move the ball here. They don't have a semblance of a running game with Nick Chubb out and Jerome Ford. I'm just the biggest Jerome Ford hater. I think the guy stinks. He's played really well this year,

but I think he's very bad. Uh, and so, I mean, DTR just can't, they're not gonna move the ball through the air. stinks he's played really well this year but i i think he's very bad uh and so i mean dtr just can't they're not gonna move the ball through the air so it's like one of those things where i still like the bangles it's minus seven and a half um which may be foolish if dtr could play better but i'm just not buying it until i see it to be honest i've already seen dcr against the bangles this season it went really poorly uh Two interceptions, bleeding through for like 82 yards

on 20-something attempts when Watson got injured. Yeah, I think this is Bengals still, even though seven and a half is obviously on the wrong side of a key number, I still think it's the right side. Or, you know, it's again Bengals or nothing. I think just you'd hate yourself laying, taking that seven and a half and having to hold on for dear life there that DTR can hold up. Or that this Cleveland defense can slow down Joe Burrow.

I mean, they've done a decent job historically of keeping Jamar Chase intact, but they got some injuries in the back half too. And yeah, I think that it's definitely Bengals or nothing. All right. Giants, Falcons.

Next one I see here on the screen. We were out at 10 for a little while. Kicking around basically 8.5 for the most part now. 42s or so is the total that you can see here. You can see ProfitX on the screen here if you're watching on YouTube. Some different numbers. Again, depending on where the liquidity is, it's going to show us where people are getting down here.

Again, what do we see? Michael Penix Jr., first start. They run the football a ton. It's a nice, soft spot to start. The Giants can generate some pressure, but Penix did a good job at avoiding pressure at Washington. So it was one of his skills. His pressure to sacrate was pretty low.

Hopefully he can do that here, get the ball out to Drake London andon and company let them cook or maybe just get the ball to bijan see what he can do against the giants team that feels like they're quiet quitting yeah this is i i just can't i don't know how people are laying like nine to ten points like i i get it's the giants but the falcons defense is not all that good either uh Uh, I mean, we have no idea if Penix is good. He could be terrible. He could be just as bad as cause he'd be worse. I mean, we have no idea if this scheme is any good. Like we just have very, there's so many variables that to lay 10. Uh, I don't know. That's a massive leap of faith for me. So, but on the other hand, I'm not excited to bet the giants here, but I do think that this game is probably more of a touchdown game than a double-digit loss.

That being said, I also think that the Falcons are going to be able to run the ball, run the ball pretty well. Probably going to see a massive workload from Algier and Bijan Robinson. So that's kind of how I'm playing it. I think that the under here could be fine, to be honest. I expect a lot of running from both sides, and it'll probably just be a boring game. It'll be run and then like a panic shot i i would guess um but i don't know we have we have really no idea i'm with you it's not something that i'm excited about but um

i don't feel comfortable laying more than a touchdown on a rookie making his his debut um it's it's it's a tough it's a tough one so yeah pass for me i don't even want to say giants or nothing but uh just straight up just just i would yeah i would love to hear like someone who's betting the falcons and just like hear the rationale on like the because i mean most most like numbers people like originating have like a downgrade you know fromgrade or an upgrade from quarterbacks. And that obviously plays a role into how they're handicapping. I just like, how do you even handicap? How do you even adjust for this?

We don't have any real sample that matters on Michael Blake's. Like league average? That's what I'm saying. I would just love to hear about that because maybe that would present value. Uncertainty almost always presents value in the prop market. I'm just not sure if laying minus 110 on like nine points really makes sense. No. All right, next, Arizona is on the road in Carolina.

Cardinals are, again, shop this around between four and five. you could see some three and a half zero profit x uh total around 46 and a half 47 and that matters quite a bit too so if you have a lean here there are probably some buying opportunities the panthers were favorites for the first time in two seasons it went about as well as we probably could have expected um they get their doors blown off by dallas of all teams here uh carninals again, losses to Seattle makes it tough for them, but they're not dead. Uh, in terms of, you know, the NFC West and the playoff picture here, I think they're going to be able to run the football and bully Carolina here. It's kind of what my thoughts are on this game.

So kind of Cardinals are nothing for me, Bob, what are your thoughts? Yeah, this is the Cardinals are just such a weird team because they played played some games we're like oh this seems this seems pretty good you know like wow this is kind of cool and then they play some games you know like wow this team sucks like this is not a this is not a team that i want to bet on uh i can't believe i bet on them you know like that so those are the teams that i not don't generally like to bet on like overall i think james connor props could be interesting i'm sure they're going to be like 85 yards or something ridiculous so yeah probably won't be much juice there for the squeeze but um if i had to pick a side it's probably arizona um maybe the under i don't know

it's like bryce young just like took back all the strides that he's making last week against dallas they're getting them under pressure and he looked he looked like toast so it wasn't pretty yeah total yards or something for connor could be interesting because he's been like so steadily involved in the passing game and again now we're talking about you know total yards at like 110 right so he he basically is gonna have to do uh you know 80 plus on the ground and then you know catch a bunch of ball still which i think he probably does but you know you're not leaving yourself a lot of wiggle room for he misses a drive um you know someone like that like he just is working the passing game with some of the other injuries

in that backfield is has spiked up quite a bit so playing running back uh reception prop by itself yeah semi-retired from that so uh it would have to be probably combo yards. All right, next, Eagles at the Commanders. Three and a half basically across the board. 45 and a half is mostly the total that we're seeing out here. Again, the Commanders, really disappointing for them to allow the Saints to get back in that game. They let Spencer Rattler come into that game and absolutely cook them for a quarter and a half just a little bit dicey in terms of you know my confidence in betting uh commanders in the playoffs or against really

good teams here again A.J. Brown is interesting way to see what's going to happen with him I've not seen practice report stuff on him but rolled up on late there in that game against pittsburgh what are your thoughts on eagles commanders who is the commander's like best win this year like who would we say the bangles i mean yeah yeah bangles is an island game early season right when we weren't we still had good expectations for the bangles and nothing for the commanders so i think it probably is the bangles yeah and the bangles i mean had just a terrible defense for the most part um like they the their other best wins i mean we're talking about giants browns cardinals we have no idea what to do with bears on a hail mary which we are pretty confident are not a very good team at this point.

Panthers, they steamrolled and then Giants, Titans, Saints. I mean, these are all like, I mean, for the most part, bottom 10 teams, like top 10 draft, and then they've lost to virtually every good team that they've played. Now, once again, they get the Eagles. They're actually beating the Eagles last time when they played for a good chunk of the game. And then the Eagles kind of settled in, ran the ball a little bit more. And I think that's probably what's going to happen again here. Like the Eagles even still good enough, I think, to shut down,

shut down Jaden Daniels and company kind of like they did last time in a way, or at least slow them down. And the Eagles running game, I think, is really strong enough to overcome any weaknesses offensively in the passing game. A.J. Brown being out would be a big deal, but definitely waiting to see on his status too. Yeah. They just probably need more running and that can work as well. So, again, at this point, you know,

you're going to have to put a lot on Jane Daniels for this one, on his arm and his legs probably to get it done. And I just don't see that against Eagles pass rush, which is playing pretty good football. And, again see that against uh eagles pass rush which is playing pretty good football and again that works in tandem with the secondary that's playing as good as anyone so uh eagles and or nothing for me even though we're kind of through the three three and a half you can see here um you know minus 124 on the three on the screen at profit x it's not terrible i i don't hate that at all so i think I'm like a commander's hater at this point.

I've just like all season, I've been kind of banging the drum. I'm like, this seems really not that good. And I mean, I feel like I was proven right. You know, we were saying this week,

eight and nine, and then they, you know, lost three in a row to three. I mean, I don't know if the Cowboys are actually good, but you know, I lost.

I mean, without a doubt, if you were to think of like where their opponent was in the power ratings and like a you know league-wide power rating scenario it's definitely that bangles game right the bangles are still at that point perceived to be very good and that's it and that we know that team defensively is garbage and that's what the commanders in that game too is they just big splash plays you know deep bomb touchdowns all of a sudden it's like what the heck's going on here uh you know just they couldn't they couldn't catch up so

i think they're okay but i don't think they're like a team that we should think is locked into a playoff spot in week 15 week 16 that's where they are and we'll get to bet against them in the playoffs and uh if you're a commanders fanats. You seem to have your answer, quarterback, long-term, and I'll see what happens in the future. Lions-Bears is the next one in Chicago. I don't think we're going to have crazy weather. It's cold. Six and a half. There are some sevens out there.

47 and a half, 48. Obviously, we touched on some of the injuries on the Lions side that have been continuing to mount. Continuing to mount continuing to mount is the uh l's for the bears as well that has been a pretty tough scene for them uh what are your thoughts on lions bears yeah this is my the infamous uh jump in the lake game here for me uh you know i bet jeff earlier in the one of our listeners jeff commented that the lions if they scored 35 or beat the bears by 35

points, I would have to jump in Lake Michigan. That's what I bet. Uh, I'm still holding to that. Although a little bit more nervous now because, uh, the bears run defense is so, so bad. So like, I mean, the lions can realistically win by 35 just by running the ball. It's not like uncomfortably cold. And we're talking about like mid to high twenties, probably, probably feels like low twenties with the wind chill. Um, I mean, certainly going to be uncomfortable for golf. I don't think they're gonna have like an awesome day through the year, but I don't know if the weather is enough really to cause too many problems here. So, uh, I like to be cold though. Like we'll be cold, buddy. Yeah, that'll be chilly. Um, we'll see how that goes. I mean, we'll, we'll see about that. I mean,

obviously I'll jump in the lake. I'll honor my bet. I'm just going to have to figure that out. If that happens, I don't think it's going to happen. I actually kind of like the under a little bit here. I don't know. It's kind of just one of those bets here. We're seeing a 48 in some spots.

Seemed like a lot of points for a team that, again, I think the Lions run the ball a lot here in this week. Again, cold weather. We know Dan Campbell runs the ball in cold weather. That's just like – that's how it goes. It's true. Yeah, you should just take a hedge in some like, you know, alts. Lions alts.

That way you're – you know, if you have to jump in the lake, eventually at least you made some money on the journey there. Yeah, I don't know what – you just saw this matchup not too long ago, right? This is Thanksgiving day in Detroit. And I don't know, I think probably market ratings on both teams have probably dipped a little bit, right? You would say, I mean, like perception of the bears hasn't gone up. Um, and the lions, because of the injuries probably both gone down.

That was like nine and a half, 10. And now we're at like six and a half and that's just way more home field advantage than we ever see at this point in today's nfl it's like a point point and a half it feels like so it feels like we're overreacting a little bit especially to your point in the way the game plan is going to go it feels like it bodes well for the lions so lion six and a half for me i think is a play uh anywhere under seven i think is is play anywhere under seven, I think is, is viable for sure. I'm just, I'm worried about the bears being able to, or they're gonna have enough possessions or enough time possession to kind of cook.

Yeah. I also real quick on the bears. I think this is like the most important coaching hire coming up here in that we, in my lifetime for the Chicago bears. I mean, this is like a franchise altering coaching hire here, essentially, because Caleb has not been playing particularly well. He's missing easy throws. He's not going through his reads. He looks broken. The scheme sucks. Thomas Brown has no idea what he's doing. Still, I mean, again, it's a disaster. The offensive line's a disaster. Keenan Allen's, I think, basically dust. I mean, it's just like a disaster top to bottom. DJ Moore is just like major attitude issues, constantly throwing his arms in the air, like pissing and moaning on the sideline.

And then Caleb just looks like a huge, huge wuss out there, kind of just like, again, pissing and moaning too. I would say organizational disaster right now. Like talk about this is why they want a leader of men is because this locker room in this team is like just a complete mess right now i mean just total disaster no leadership right now no leadership present and the defense right the defense was so good last year it's the same group they're awful yeah i mean no juquan brisker for basically the majority of the season. That's been rough. And he is so good in run support for them.

So he's been a massive loss. Otherwise, just the same group for the most part. So it's been very surprising that they've regressed so much. Otherwise, we should just be giving Jaquan Brisker MVP votes or Defensive Player of the Year award if he's that impactful. It's just a bunch of guys playing um significantly worse and um it hasn't got better without without their defensive mind and head coach uh it's only gotten worse there so yeah i mean stopping the lions even though they've out all the injuries i don't know it's gonna be hard for them to do yeah good luck

i mean we'll see how it goes i'm definitely i'm i'm mentally preparing to jump in the lake that's all i gotta say titans colts is the next one on the board uh three and a half fours out there too you could shop around seeing totals are kind of around key numbers as well 42 and a half 43 and a half uh which matters quite a bit i, I can't think of a play, a singular play, that maybe could be so impactful in terms of not just in the moment playoffs, but maybe organizationally. The Jonathan Taylor play was stunning, but he is running into the end zone to put them up 20-7 on the road.

And, man, I didn't leave Anthony Richardson Island. I'm feeling good, Connor. I played some Colts to make the playoffs. I loved the Colts in points in that game. And Richardson played okay early. You can't put Anthony Richardson in a spot yet, maybe ever, but not right now for sure, in a spot where it rests on his arm. You put him up 20-7 where they can run rpos they can take some shots deep they can make some different stuff up

it is a totally different game and that play flipped the game instantly ended their playoff shots um obviously blew the cover for the game but now who knows what's going on organizationally moving forward this team you know just a massively impactful boneheaded move for a guy who seems to be pretty buttoned up and polished in terms of you know boneheaded moves but uh tough one here uh titans are going with uh mason rudolph who without a doubt has played better football than will love us this year thoughts on titans colts yeah it, I'm not really excited to lay the Colts here. I mean, I know the Titans have played pretty terribly all year, but I think, yeah, Mason Rudolph has provided a little bit of juice. I think each time that he's come in and played,

um, and his Colts team just continues to be another tough team for me to gauge. Like they, I mean, they've played periodically. Well, they've also seen them have this again last week, the complete meltdown that you just described. Um, you know, like I was, I mean, they've played periodically. Well, they've also seen them have this again last week, the complete meltdown that you just described. You know, like I was, I thought that my call of saying that I thought the Broncos would win would be, was like one of the worst of the week, you know, when we were watching the game and then somehow came back. I think that they were, what was it?

Outpacing yards or like 200 yards, something like that. I think that's what, I mean, just a crazy way to win a game. I don't know. It's been kind of the MO of Sean Payton's entire Denver era is they keep somehow winning games that they don't really deserve to win. I mean, it's been multiple years now of this happening. So yeah, I don't know. But for me, I mean, plus three and a half, I don't think it's bad on the Titans. I just can't get behind the Colts at this point. I know it sounds crazy, but you're getting the hook. I think it's probably gonna be a close kind of low scoring, ugly game. Stay away from me too. They stole my,

my heart, my soul a little bit last week too, because I was feeling really good. I mean, they win that game. They're in a good spot. Now, all of a sudden that Thursday night, Broncos Chargers game becomes impactful with, you know, an easier play out here for the Colts with the Titans and, you know, They have a softer schedule to finish, easiest schedule in the league over the last three weeks. Who else do they play? They play Tennessee, the Giants, and the Jags. I mean, the Colts win that football game, they're going to the playoffs.

And now they are definitely not. So, yeah, tough, tough, tough, tough scene for Jonathan Taylor. So stay away from me. This next one's a stay away from me as well. The Rams are on the road against the Jets. Three, three and a half, depending on where you're shopping, 46, 46 and a half is the total. On paper, it makes the Rams make sense.

I'm a little bit of like a weird schedule spot for the Rams. They're coming off of two really big wins. They win in a shootout at home against Buffalo. They go on the road in the division and win an ugly stinker on Thursday night against the Niners. And then if you look at what they have coming up, it's two divisional games that are massively impactful for their chance. Now they got this early west to east against kind of a frisky, I don't know what to make of the Jets. They can be terrible. Again, I don't want to make much of what they they could be terrible again i don't want to

make much of what they did last week against a pretty terrible jags team but it's just kind of a weird look ahead spot for the rams it's definitely rams or nothing for me because i just think they're at least a competitive playoff team and i'm not buying the jets but it's just kind of a stay away for me it feels like one of those things that early on when this is weird and it's like oh it's 10 nothing jets it's like yeah i knew it i knew nothing jets. It's like, yeah, I knew it. I knew this was going to be a weird wonky one. So I'm staying away. What are your thoughts? I kind of think it's a fun, like over game here, because especially depending on the jets jets defense,

because like Rogers continues to throw the ball like 40 times a game, basically. And if they fall behind at all, they're slinging it. And the Rams, like, again, if they fall behind at all against the jets defense, it's been pretty bad since solid left no matter what and now you have concerns about like sauce gardner dj reed like any of their actual players who i think are pretty good they're just not playing very well and so yeah i mean like this secondary stinks like i mean we just saw mac jones kind of torch them uh they were playing like it was literally a back and forth

with mac jones you know how often that happens basically never. So I think, you know, a player like Stafford with cup and Nakua like can easily exploit this team here. So I do expect fireworks either way, even if the Rams want to run the ball, I mean, jets run defense things too. So it's like, I think the Rams can score plenty. I understand they'll, they'll look at issue there, but if they fall behind, I think should get plenty of points. So 46 and a half and other spots,

I'm seeing 47 on profit X here and you probably get 46 and a half at better odds too, if you want to just buy it points. So 46 and a half in other spots. I'm seeing 47 on profit X here. You can probably get 46 and a half at better odds too, if you want to just buy it down. So. And Quinnian Williams, I think probably misses. He got a late concussion there. So the jets rush defense,

probably even worse. So again, we've seen some here. We're coming off of a 29 carry Kyron Williams game. We could see another 25 carries for Kyron in this spot here. Again, another spot where – kind of like James Conner. It's like, man, it's such a nice spot for him. Bijan, Gibbs, all these guys.

But their numbers are all going to be like in the mid-80s. It's going to be like an alpha – it's an alpha running back 100-plus week where you get all of them like you know plus 120 or something like that but there's just not there's just not a lot of juice there but yeah i think kairin has a nice day but uh you're gonna have to pay for in the prop market all right next is uh should be a great game especially if geno smith plays minnesota on the road in seattle uh looking at threes you can see 44 and a half in the total there are some 43.5s out there on domestics as well, which again matters, 44, typically a key number in terms of totals.

Tough spot for Minnesota too, short week, heading west. Again, feisty game with the way this defense can play. With Geno maybe dinged up a little bit, but the Seattle offensive line problems. Um, yeah, um, um,

wanting to be long on Seattle. It's kind of a tough one for me. I don't know what to do. What are your thoughts? It's just basically what I had written down to is like, well, I keep wanting to back Seattle. They just got curb stomped at home last week by an NFC North team that I

think is built somewhat similarly to the Vikings in a sense that they can run the ball, they can play efficiently offensively. But the Vikings defensively, I think I have a unique twist in that they can just bring insane amounts of pressure or bring like, you know, tons of stuff, which just doesn't bode well at all for the Seahawks offensive line and

Seahawks. I mean, it's going to require a pretty heroic effort from Gino getting the ball out like super quick, I think. And I, you know, again, when you're, when you're banged up, that's just not going to be easy pretty heroic effort from Gino getting the ball out like super quick I think and I you know again when you're when you're banged up that's just not going to be easy so for me it's probably the Vikings to be honest but I do want to be you know back in the Seahawks long term so it's a little bit of a stay away but I again probably the Vikings yeah probably

the Vikings probably under 44 and a half you can see you have to pay for it a little bit here that would matter though I probably want 44.5, to be honest, just because I think both teams probably struggle a little bit to run the football. Efficiency offensively, I think, could be pretty ugly here, too. So, yeah, under would be my lean in that one. Next, New England on the road. In Buffalo, you could see mostly 14s. We've had some 13 and a

half, but it's 14 and a half total out there. Anywhere between 44 and a half, 46 and a half. So you could shop that around here as well. It's too many points to be honest, but I'm not backing the Pats, but I think they have some backdoor ability here. But again, because Buffalo still needs this game, all systems are off. This pass rush can be really problematic for Patriots tackles, which have both been absolutely atrocious. So hold on, Drake. Just don't get hurt, buddy.

Pats, Bills, Connor, what do you think? I kind of like the over in this one. I mean, the Bills have just been steamrolling teams that are way better than the Pats. We're talking about like 40 points a game. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if we get pushed, like a legitimate pushback from the Patriots,

but, you know, we might get a pick from Drake May. We might get a 50-yard bomb. You know, maybe a couple of long runs because the Bills run defense. Like, you know, I think that things will happen. It's just, you know, it just might just be very lopsided for the bills i'm not super excited to lay 14 if that's not the case but i do think that the over uh 46 is a pretty low bar considering the bills like could legit hit that themselves based on how they've been playing

then you got a team that likes to play man um in new england and that does not bode well for defending patch or uh defending josh allen we saw that last week it's it's problematic um got a team that likes to play man um in new england and that does not bode well for defending patch or uh defending josh allen we saw that last week it's it's problematic um so yeah that's it's just to stay away from me but yeah i think points might be interesting there too uh san francisco and miami picking some spots uh dolphins short short favorites total is around 46 and a half or so some injury status updates here that i think could be impactful for this game um i just i don't believe in the dolphins there's been a lot of injuries on the niner side uh the secondary is all together all three of their starters their

secondary is really good they've just they've been guys have been hurt all season long in san francisco just kind of been a little bit of a season from hell in terms of you know when the injuries have happened both sides of the ball um san fran or nothing for me what are your thoughts and it's another game that i kind of like the over i just you know it's kind of like the you know the shanahan versus mcdaniel kind of like five here uh i mean we're getting a really low number on i mean mean, both defenses are fine. And I think both offices can play well and they have periodically. They were getting a little bit of the discount

of the Niners. Just given what we've seen recently from them offensively, they had what the snow game two weeks ago. And then they had like the partial rain game last week, which came out of nowhere and they just couldn't do anything in the first half. And then Brock Purdy just started throwing interceptions.

I mean, played pretty poorly and it was just a bad game all around. Like I think that you give them start to finish against, you know, another not super great defense in the Miami that they play pretty well. So lean over lean San Francisco here. I think that both teams can score. Yeah.

I'd like to see Trent Williams in there. I think that can help a little bit too. I don't know what's going on in the backfield, you know, with, you know, Garondo or whatever. It's just, it's kind could help a little bit too. I don't know what's going on in the backfield with Garondo or whatever. It's just – it's kind of a mess. But, yeah.

Waddle went out too. Didn't practice. Okay. Yeah. Be interesting to see that. But Niners for me would be the lean. This is arguably the bell of the ball of the week because, you know, in terms of games that actually matter, Jags-Raiders matters a ton, but not what you think.

It matters a ton for draft pick spots here. Jacksonville and Conner's worst record in the league prayers that he's holding on to here, which is very much alive with this Raiders team. The Raiders are short favorites here. 39.5, 40 is the total. What do you think here you're doubling down get any of this you're just kind of you know you already got some equity in the game with uh shorting the raiders i'm locked in on the jags mac jones about to shut up i mean this raiders team

stinks like i feel like at least uh the jags have a couple of good players like brian thomas uh you know i mean maybe one good player but like the i mean the raiders max crosby i think he's out for the rest of the season right at this point um christian wilkins obviously out like the the rest of their team is just like i mean they are probably getting back aiden o'connell but like when that's a positive sign for you like you know that things are bad desmond ritter had like zero pulse last week for like 90 of the game any like box scores know, scouting is just not representative of what happened that entire game. So yeah, I mean, this team is just really, really, really bad and they've all clearly basically quit at this point. Um, so, and I mean, the Jags, I don't think are necessarily good, but at least they showed some sign of life last week consistently against the

jets. Uh, like Mac Jones was slinging it a little bit so i don't know i like again i think the raiders being favored to me against anyone is pretty surprising uh you know the jags i think are pretty bad too and because the raiders not that they don't have a good home field because the you know raider nation is very strong but like l like the vegas is like people build vacations around like i want to go see my team play. Oh, when do they play? Oh, they play the Vegas in Vegas in December. Yeah, let's go. Like, you know, we saw that even with the Falcons,

the Falcon fans were out there in droves on Monday night because it's just like, oh, it's a destination. Now Jacksonville is maybe one of the one franchise fan base. It's really hard to see that happening with because they're probably one of the smaller markets in the league but i don't know um it's not like they deserve a ton of points in the market for a home field advantage in the spot so i'm with you jags do nothing you know one and a half on the jags you know tease it through the three and the seven um i don't hate it at all low scoring game i mean that will keep it, Mack will keep it within a touch.

And Mack still thinks he's that dude, right? He's a guy that has a shot here with a couple games left to prove that he deserves an NFL job, or at least to be the clear number two somewhere. So he's out to continue to sling it, and they got BTJ. They got the best player on the field. So that's going to help him quite a bit. All right.

Tampa in Dallas Sunday night. The Bucs are four for the most part. Some three and a half's out there. Two total. It's pretty healthy between, I guess, 47, 48 and a half pretty much on domestics there too. You can see some different numbers here on ProfitX for you to shop around. Baker and company continue to sling it. Dallas showed a pulse last week.

Technically not dead for the playoffs, though they pretty much are. But, you know, Bucs definitely have a lot to play for here. They have to solidify this division here. This would be a tough one for them to lose. Thoughts on Bucs, Cowboys? Yeah, I kind of, I don't know, maybe it's naive of me. I was surprised to see the total this high. We're seeing 48.5 and and other domestics 47 here like i mean both teams can

get pressure like uh especially the bucks you know like i expect i mean the cowboys have like a newfound running game with rico dowdle and the bucks like i mean bucky irving's a stud like they've been running the ball way better too uh you know like maybe it just feels like a lot of points for like a run mostly probably run centric game plan to be like a back and forth affair now obviously if dallas goes up tampa is just going to sling it 50 times and he'll probably end up going over uh i just don't you know again i see tampa kind of controlling this game a little bit more or being at least somewhat close as the spread suggests so in a closer game scenario i kind of think we're looking more like a 45 a 45-point total instead of like 48.5, which is what it's set at.

Yeah, under 48.5, minus 105 on FanDuel. Yeah, I think that's probably a good way. You have plenty of opportunities to get in live and buy out of that in-game if the game flips like Connor laid out, because I agree with that. If Dallas gets up and you force Baker's hand a little bit, then you know it's probably going to be a spot where your 40.5 is going to have to hold on. But, yeah, you could buy out of it.

So I like that look for sure. Last one, Monday Nighter stinker. Saints, Spencer Rattler and company in Green Bay, 14, 14.5. I think it's hard for any originator to get to 14 but at the same time are you gonna tell me to take spencer rattler on the road against the packers team that has uh i think real super bowl chances here saints run d that can be uh really really poor against the team that wants to win the football just kind of kind of a stay away. We'll have to look at props for sure. Thoughts on saints Packers.

Yeah. I mean, Alva Camara may not play. We're probably getting Spencer Rattler. Like it's, I mean, this is just a disaster for the, for the saints team here.

We're probably gonna see a lot of Kendrick Miller in this game. If we don't get Camara and like green Bay, I think, you know, it's kind of like hitting their groove a little bit in terms of just things are starting to click top to bottom. I don't have a play on this game,

but something that I wanted to pitch to you as, you know, something, a little throwback here to your like full fish teaser kind of alt spread parlay here. Yeah, I'm going to go with Packers minus six and a half. Bengals money line bills minus six and a half. That's plus one 16 at FanDuel. Um, where does it leave my love language? That's yeah, I know. That's what I was. I wanted to make sure that we, you know, saved it for the last part here because I don't really know if I want to lay 14, but I like all those teams win by a touchdown

or win outright. Yeah. And you said plus one 16. Yeah. Plus one 16 for just for those three teams. That's a credit book play for the weekend. So I would call it the credit book play of the week. You know, I don't actually have to use any money, but just use the credit book for it and just, you know, it comes in. You're feeling good, but yeah, I mean, there's some bigger ones on the board for sure.

And that wouldn't make sense. I mean, in another scenario, you'd be like, oh, the Falcons need to be in that mix. And're like i'm not doing that at all yeah that's that felt like a pretty dangerous one to include in there i mean for sure if the giants win all right i would be thrilled i mean that would be what an awesome run out that would be but you know just for my raiders worst record bet that would be about yeah no for sure yeah same thing i mean i want the patch to have the best pick in the draft as possible. So I want to make sure, you know, I'm happy that one of those teams is going to lose. But if the Giants want to go ahead and get a win as well,

that would be absolutely fantastic. So, yeah, I mean, I like the plus 116 on those three. That's not a bad look at all. Don't hate that. That is old school. Fishy parlay of the week. It is. Yep.

Yeah, it's, you know, for the newer listeners, Newton used to do one of those basically every week. And I think you hit like five or six in a row, something like that. We got real hot one time. Yep. Yeah. It's for, you know, for the, for the newer listeners, new and used to do one of those basically every week. And I think you hit like five or six in a row, something like that. We got real hot one time. Yeah. And every week I, you know, poo pooed it and I was like, this is ridiculous. And you were just ripping them. So I think when you preface it with acknowledging that it's probably a negative EV long-term, you're kind of covering yourself. And the more that we found,

the more that we've had a growing subscriber base and the ability to you know press flesh with our discord members and get an understanding of what these people like to bet on they love this shit yeah we know it's it's dumb but like man they love that stuff i remember when i i made an official play last year i think or maybe two years ago. And you and Clark poo poo is the people's. Yeah. In the people's parlay came in, but yeah, I don't know.

People, people love this garbage. So who knows? Who knows? I like your, I like it. All right. Anything else for the folks?

Nope. No, nothing. Nothing. Nothing. It was another, another good week about that. Another great week of props.

Got some nice juicy unders coming in here and excited to bring some winners. You're on a hot streak, as you mentioned the top. And you know, I think we're ripping. I mean, if we could collectively as a group hit a hundred units,

that would be pretty awesome here. That would be pretty sick to be able to, to promote. I don't know if we'll get there, but I mean, who knows if the futures roll in, we have a couple more good weeks. We can get it. We're at 73.

My futures are – I have some futures. I know you have some nice futures too, but I think we continue to roll here. I think hundreds within the realm of possibilities. Just got to have a good finish. Got to finish strong. So, yeah, I'm excited. If you want to check it out, come hang out with us. 404.com slash plans.

Get the betting sub. Again, massively discounted because obviously we're you want to check it out, come hang out with us, 444.com slash plans. Get the betting sub. Again, massively discounted because obviously we're coming up to the tail end of the season. We'll get you access to all the things that we do at 444, get you in the Discord, and get you a sense of if you've hung out, watched the shows for this season or even today or in the past, and you want to get a sense of what the betting subscription entails, what the play releases and such look like from us.

This is a great way to do it from basically nothing for the tail end of the season, right with us through the end of the Superbowl. Again, there's a lot of football left, so check it out. So again, next week for this show,

probably not happening Tuesday. It's a little too early in the week for us to do it. It's also Christmas Eve Wednesday. When we typically do it as Christmas day, Thursday, Connor's traveling. That doesn't, that we typically do it as Christmas Day, Thursday, Connor's traveling. That doesn't that's kind of a tougher road, too. But then we'll come in on Friday and do Prop Drop.

So Prop Drop will be here again this Friday and next Friday. This show unlikely to be in the spots here next week. But again, besides the tools we talk about in the discord, the subscribers. So if you want to get those conversations, come and hang out with us. So safe travels to Connor. We'll be here on friday come back for prop drop myself connor high slop for connor i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody