Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 16 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions | Buffalo Bills & More!

Episode Date: December 20, 2023

In this comprehensive Week 16 NFL Betting Guide, we delve deep into the most promising bets, odds, and predictions for the upcoming NFL matchups, with a special focus on the Buffalo Bills and their potential performance. Our expert analysis covers a range of teams and games, offering viewers an in-depth look at where to place their bets for maximum returns. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the world of NFL wagering, this video is the perfect resource to get you up to speed with the latest trends and insights.Tune in to our ULTIMATE Week 16 NFL BETTING GUIDE for a detailed breakdown of the games to watch, including the Dallas Cowboys. We provide an expert perspective on the betting landscape, highlighting the best bets, understanding the odds, and making accurate predictions.CHAPTERS:0:00 INTRO3:45 BENGALS VS. STEELERS Betting Preview9:41 BROWNS VS. TEXANS Best Bets NFL15:44 JAGUARS VS. BUCS Best Bets NFL Week 1622:44 COWBOYS VS. DOLPHINS Week 16 Betting Preview31:41 RAVENS VS. 49ERS Bets50:00 More Week 16 NFL Bets & NFL Futures Bets58:09 OUTROSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here, as always, by my friends to talk about NFL size and totals, the best matchups here for the Week 16 Slates. Joining me here as always, Conor Allen. What's going on, buddy? Not a whole lot. Excited to talk about some games here. I think we have a couple really good games and then a lot of games with playoff implications that I think are really gross, which led me to tweeting out like current playoff standings. And I just like almost vomited at some of the, you know, first week matchups that we might be getting as it currently stands.

But thankfully I think we're going to see a lot of movement here in the coming weeks. I'm excited to break that down with you guys. Yeah. You've been picking the five games to talk about today in the show is a little bit challenging because like that on paper, it's not necessarily the game we're like five games to talk about today in the show. It was a little bit challenging because on paper, it's not necessarily the game we're fired up to talk about per se, but it has massive playoff ramifications in Week 16

with only three games left with some of these borderline playoff teams kind of going head-to-head a little bit. It's a little bit ugly, but joining us here as always as well, Sharp Clark. Clark, what's going on? Yeah, not much. I'm hanging out at my parents' apartment this week for the holidays, so I apologize if my stream is a bit choppy, but I agree with Connor. The AFC playoffs took a turn for the worse last week when the Browns inexplicably came back against the Bears,

not just because I had Bears' money line, but a Bears win would have been great, and then the C.J. Stroud concussion lasting at least another week is, is a bummer, not just for the playoff picture, but also for CJ himself that you never want to see a concussion that lasts longer than a week. So you have a major bummer in the AFC, but hopefully we'll,

we'll get some good games out of it still. Yeah. Couldn't agree more. I have that in the notes. Cause those two teams go head to head this week and we, we'll be talking about that one in a little bit too but yeah it's a unfortunate uh turn of events there especially in houston so we're my folks uh the three of us are here every wednesday 4 p.m eastern on the four for four bets youtube channel you can find the podcast in your feed

later on wednesday evenings subscribe to both so you don't miss a show it's free content so subscribing thumbs up all those things go a long way in supporting us here. And again, if you want to get down with props, things we do on that end, Prop Drop is every Friday afternoon, 3 p.m. Eastern here. Same channels, myself, Connor, and John Hyslop from Odds Jam. Again, don't forget to subscribe. You can get those shows, you know,

get the notifications so you don't miss them. Also, Betting Sub is going to get you access to all of our official plays we are still grinding nba there as well uh if you're getting into anything still on anything football speculation this time of year still have some like playoff only best ball and stuff like that all that that's covered with the betting subscription of four for four you can go over to four four dot com slash plans uh discounted massively right now uh in comparison to where we've been in previous months so again more information here in the show notes go ahead and check that out again 444.com slash plans all right standard thursday night game two saturday games and a full slate

on christmas eve and then three games on christmas day This is an assault on families and marriages across the nation. This is unacceptable. It's a crime. But I'm excited about it. Part of our job, though, is to watch football. So it's really tough. It's a tough sell for families. I'm looking forward to the calendar shift.

In a couple years, it's going to be Wednesday, and it's just not going to matter. It's going to be cool, break up the monotony of things but uh that'll still be massively inconvenient because we'll have a show on wednesdays and be like hey are we doing our show on christmas like so there's always something when you're in this and i just is this time of year so what are you gonna do about it so we'll start with the uh saturday nightcap like i said two games there on saturday cincinnati is on the road in pittsburgh uh Total has been bet down here with the Jamar Chase report. Chase is going to miss this one with a shoulder injury that he suffered versus Minnesota

there. We are down to 37 after opening at 40. Spreads hovering in the same range though. It's Bengals less than three everywhere. FanDuel has one and a half. There's some two, two and a half out there as well. Clark's touching on that briefly here. In the AFC playoff picture, both these teams are on the outside looking in right now. Bengals very much alive. If they can win here, Steelers mostly dead. They become all the way dead. If Mason Rudolph can't get it done this week,

he is now getting the start for Pittsburgh after MVP Mitch. That rollercoaster could not go differently than we expected there. Connor, what are your thoughts here on this AFC North matchup? Yeah, I mean, a Saturday matchup, the dreams are made up here. Mason Rudolph versus Jake Browning. It doesn't get a whole lot better than that. I think it's what's interesting, though. So Jake Browning so far this season in his four starts,

8.67 yards per attempt, second out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks, first in completion rate at 73%. Seven to three touchdown interception rate. 4.9% completion over percentage over expectation, which is also first. Like all of these stats are wild, but it also factors in the fact that he has the second lowest average at the target in the league

among all those qualifying quarterbacks. But it's only a little bit lower than Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow was like 41st at 6.7. His is like 6.2. So he's obviously not Joe Burrow, but I think that with what he's being asked, he's been doing fairly well. And so I think this is going to be an interesting spot here for Cincinnati to score. The last time they played, it was 16 to 10. It looks like the Bengals only ran 41 plays in that game, if I did the math correctly. And so obviously super low play volume, but part of that was because the Steelers were able to run the ball. And so now the Bengals lost CJ Reeder. I don't really see that changing a whole lot. So the Steelers

starting Mason Rudolph in a game that they already ran the ball 30 times really well, they're probably going to just do that again, knowing the Steelers and kind of their tendencies. And so I worry a little bit about play volume this side, but I do expect the Steelers have success running the ball. I do expect, expect the Bengals passing off and have some success. So, you know, like I want to bet the Bengals, but do I really want to lay, you know, lay the points with the Bengals on the road? I think that's what I'm going back and forth with here. But like, if I had to choose a side, it'd probably be the Bengals and like a slight lean over, even though it's a little bit gross i think both sides have a little success

offensively yeah clark this was the first post matt canada uh era game in which the steelers put up 400 total yards for the first time in like four years they haven't done it since but they did it here against the bangles we're now a little bit weaker without dj reader what are your thoughts on this one yeah i think that's a good place to start with with the dj reader injury because i don't have flat values assigned to individual players in terms of this player is worth x points to the spread because i think it matters a lot the context of the game and how that injury will impact that specific game and i think the dj reader injury is massive against a team like Pittsburgh because their run game is not very creative, particularly many do run a couple of rounds every now and then,

but it's really just relying on can our offensive line win up front and create holes for our two running backs. And when they could do that, they're successful. And so not having DJ reader on a defense that already failed to stop the run, it's not like the Bengals are going to scheme up some way to stop this running offense. I think the Steelers are going to have some success. And then that leads into the second question, which is how are we downgrading the Steelers offense with Mason Rudolph, who is worse than picket and probably worse than Trubisky as well. That question is minimal when you can run the ball, right? I mean,

what a quarterback is asked to do depends on a lot on, you know, how long those third downs are going to be, how many third downs there are. And so if the Steelers are running the ball successfully, it really reduces the impact that a downgrade a quarterback can have on the game. So there's two reasons why I really like the Steelers here, given the injury impacts. And then the third is Jamar Chase. Again, injury impact is not a flat rate for every player, but in a game, you know, for a quarterback like Jake Browning, who has relied on, you know, like you said, his average, his yards per attempt is like two yards higher than his average depth of target. And to me,

that means he's getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers and his playmakers making plays. Jamar Chase is their best playmaker. So everything shifts without him. And I think, you know, a lot of those completions to T Higgins late against the Vikings were just T Higgins making, you know, man plays. And that's not a reliable form of offense. He's just chucking it up when he gets under pressure. That won't sustain itself. I think this is another tough game for Jake Browning after his first outing against the Steelers when he did have Jamar Chase. So I see a lot of angles to really like the home dog here, especially on the money line or getting two, getting two and a half.

I would still take that. So like the Steelers, don't really have a sight on the table probably over, but the game flow, the pace of it might slow that down and really make it hard to go over. So I'm not interested in betting it, but I do have interest on the Steelers here. Steelers probably make for a pretty interesting teaser leg as well here, getting some points at home, a low-scoring game, if that was your thing. Because you make a good point.

I mean, the Mason Rudolph, he is undoubtedly worse than Mitch Trubisky, but a little bit mitigated in the fact that you can run the football and take that out of his hands a little bit. So it makes it a little bit easier to kind of get away with. Only issue with the teaser leg is Rudolph does present a little bit of variance, as does Browning at this point, frankly. And so if my read on the game is wrong, if my read on how these injuries impact the game is wrong,

like Bengals blowout is clearly within range of outcomes. It's a game that I'm looking to play the leverage, like the money line. You get plus money on a bet, but you know, it's probably close to 50 50. I think that's probably my preferable way to take it. All right. We'll keep it moving. We'll move over to Sunday. The aforementioned Browns on the road in Houston to take on the Texans, as mentioned there, CJ Stroud, not with us again for this game,

which really sucks. Again, you know, you hate to see a guy ruled out early in the week for the second week in a row and the concussion. Hopefully he's okay. Hopefully that can resolve itself and he will be back here to finish the season because they are still viable for the playoffs. This one is impactful, though. This has obviously impacted the line as well.

Houston went from a 2.5-point home favorite here to a 2.5-point dog. Total got as high as 43 and a half for a bit. Now 40, 40 and a half basically across the market. So shop around if you have a lean there as well. We have both teams currently in the playoffs. As of now, the Browns though in great shape. As Clark mentioned that game last week, there's a cluster of teams at eight and six.

Browns now nine and five puts them in a really nice spot here in terms of the playoff picture so it's been interesting to see the browns be really aggressive from a pass rate over expectation standpoint with flacco under center with some offensive line injuries as well uh and there's a pretty big split in terms of the defense here i would love to have stroud because it'd be very interesting to see like again small sample this browns defense has been incredible but like they're giving up almost 31 a game on the road about 350 yards per game on the road as well whereas like they're holding teams like under 17 points under 200 total yards at home it's just a pretty large uh again small sample but pretty large discrepancy in what they've been doing here so far this season uh clark let's get started with this one I don't have a sophisticated reason why but I think

that's just variance like I just I don't believe that a defense is going to be like materially different whether they play at home on the road like you get some crowd noise you know the dog pound Etc that that matters but I think it's really just been variance but this defense is really good and I you know I played the under at open because I thought that it was not correct to assume that CJ Straub was going to be playing i mean he didn't practice all week last week and that's a bad sign for someone in concussion protocol there was no indication that he was even close to clearing it so um even with stroud i liked the under you know at 42 and a half but now that stroud has been ruled out it's down to 40 40 and a half i still like the under 40 40 and a half because uh this

texans offense really struggled against the Titans and the Titans were missing some guys on defense. It was ugly. You know, they went all the way to the end of overtime to get their 19th point in that one. And it just was not pretty. So the Texans offense is really going to struggle without Tank Dell. You know, who knows if Nico Collins is playing, obviously CJ Stroud, the offensive lines banged up. It's just not a good spot. And then on the other side of the ball, the Browns were lucky to get to their 20 points that they got against the Bears.

That game was, the total closed at 37 and a half or 38, and they didn't even get to the total despite a pick six, an interception return to the one, and a muffed punt on the 20. So two very, very short fields and a defensive touchdown. They still went under in that game. Despite their pass rate over expectation, they're just not good on offense.

Like they're not completing a lot of passes. They're not converting a lot of their downs. And I think the Texas defense really showed up against the Titans. And I think this is going to be another game where the Browns just don't score consistently. And so it's going to be hard without either team consistently scoring on offense for the game to clear 40.

And I like the under here. Yeah. What do you think there, Connor? I still like it. I probably lean under there, too, even though we definitely, you know, knowing the 43s are available, that stinks a little bit. We're still, I love that Clark got in there early, but still lean under here, too. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I think I take more excuse towards the Cleveland side here.

You know, even at the current number, looking at minus two on the road here against Houston, Clark brought up a good point here. Like this Houston offense was horrible for like most of the game. And then they just started feeding Singletary and finding someone on the ground. And like, you know, they had some success there and maybe they have a little bit of success

here, you know, on the ground against Cleveland, but they're basically an all or nothing defense. defense they like lead the league in runs stop at the line of scrimmage but also allow one of the highest rates of explosive runs so it's like they either stop them for you know a short gain or they allow you know a massive gain there so i think that's going to be probably houston's goal would just be to run the ball a lot but i don't just don't really think that's sustainable here against an overall pretty good defense and the other side as as you mentioned,

Flacco, their password of expectation with Flacco second and password of expectation fourth and pass rate. I don't know what it is like the same thing happened when we went with the jets, like we went from a super run heavy to a pass heavy team. I think he might just be like never checking out a runs, maybe changing the plays.

Like I don't, like I don't see how this is possible now over two separate teams that literally both teams go from like one of the run heaviest teams to the pass heaviest teams when Flacco's quarterback. And it's not all game script. Like, I mean, a lot of these games are close. So I don't know. I think that in this spot though, they do get a pretty good jog in Houston. So since the week seven by Houston, allowing a 67% completion rate, 8.2 yards for pass attempt, both of those bottom five right now. So, I mean, we've seen Amari Cooper do well. We've seen him targeting David Njoku a bunch.

It's not like he doesn't have a ton of weapons. They just haven't scored a bunch. So, like, I don't know. I think that I would lean towards the Cleveland side here because, I mean, if Cleveland gets up and Houston has to play catch-up mode, I mean, that is ugly. Like, that is really ugly. So, yeah, I think I still like Cleveland under the three here.

Yeah, I don't want Case Ke keenan when it's you know miles miles garrett's like you know raining down on him and it's uh case keenan time it's not a i think it's a great place that you want to be uh having your money when you're when you're an elite quarterback you gotta pass it connor it's so funny how he's still uh around considering like who he played with and who he played against you know the whole like is Flacco elite and this guy's still kicking and like everyone else that I, you know, just associate with my mind is like long retired at this point.

So it's funny. Yeah. I mean, Brown's also interesting. If, if, if your angle is, you know,

the Texans get behind, what are they going to do against defense? Could be easily be like a 31, three type game. Still cashing the under. exactly all right another uh injury concern here in this next one uh jacksonville is on the road in tampa bay uh you know fairly interesting market i don't know i feel like in years past these games wouldn't be posted yet especially like with trevor lawrence like an impactful uh you impactful player in terms of where the line is.

But again, we have a variety of prices currently on the matchup. It looks like FanDuel. The Bucs are one and a half point favorites there. Other shops have this as a pick. This was Jags minus three in the look-ahead window. But again, the Bucs are getting a deserved bump after their Week 15 win in Green Bay. Jacksonville lost in a primetime spot on Sunday night against the Ravens total between 42, 43 and a half.

So shop around there. If you haven't really leaned, but I I'll start with you, Clark. I love to get your thoughts. Cause we know this line will move a little bit either way. When we get official news is it pertains to Lawrence, right?

That's just how this works. Even if you feel like this is a Lawrence line, or this is a not Lawrence line. When the news becomes official, there will be a market reaction. What are your thoughts now? Is this a Lawrence line? Let's say FanDuel's line at minus one and a half. Where do you think we're going here? No, this is an in-between line. And I think the concussion protocol, they're not saying anything meaningful about these guys' injuries because it's their private health information. Like they don't want to be like, oh, yeah, today, you know,

he did the light test and here's how he responded to the light. Like everything is undercover. And so we know nothing. Our updates are literally he's in the concussion protocol, not even what step they're in typically. So I think it's a complete black box in terms of whether or not Lawrence will be able to play. I hope he does, you know, not only for his own health, but also just for the quality of the game.

But this line itself is, is between, I mean, if, if Lawrence is playing unhealthy, then I think that Jags are favored. And if Lawrence is out, then I think the Bucks probably favored by more maybe closer to three, if not outright three, because I think Lawrence is a meaningful, meaningful impact on the spread. His, his, he played well last week. I, you know, I know that they only scored seven points against the Ravens,

but I thought he put together a good game. He was under a lot of pressure. He made a lot of really good throws. There were some bad drops that hurt him. There was the Calvin Ridley, you know, non-touchdown at the end. He made the dumb decision to throw short of the goal line before the half. Like, that's on him. But also the pass before that was beautiful.

And then the stupid fumble. Obviously, he's had too many of those mistakes where he wasn't even touched. He just dropped the ball on the ground before that was beautiful. And then the stupid fumble. Obviously, he's had too many of those mistakes where he wasn't even touched. He just dropped the ball on the ground. It's wild. But I think Trevor Lawrence's impact to this offense is monumental. So it's not a game that I want any part of right now because the outcome of his concussion protocol

determines which side I like in this game, and I just don't like gambling on how that turns out. But I will say as far as having a line available, one thing that one nuance that I think a lot of bettors don't think about is books don't have flat limits for every game. And so I think this is one of those games where even though books are posting lines, the books that have, you know, bigger limits that let bettors bet into it are probably keeping the limits low on this game until they, you know, have some clarity on the injury. I think that's smart because, you know, it has such a huge impact on this game until they have some clarity on the injury. And I think that's smart because it has such a huge impact on this one.

Yeah, that makes sense. Connor, where do you think we're going here, depending on the Lawrence news? What are your thoughts on the matchup? Yeah, I think if Lawrence is in, we're looking at probably Jags minus two and a half, minus three. And then if he's out, Bucks minus two and a half, minus three. I think that's kind of just like the, I mean, it seems like a pretty fair move in my mind. Maybe it doesn't get to the full three on either side, um, depending on the

market sentiment, but I think either way, um, it could be an interesting look here. And if this was a bodily injury, like if this was like another knee or an arm, I absolutely know that Trevor Lawrence would be playing at this point in the season after this man has been going through ankle injuries, knee injuries, like his whole, he is beat to shit at this point. And like, he's still plugging the way still running every week. Like he is an absolute warrior, but because it's a head injury, like, I don't really know if he's going to be like, yeah, I need to play. Like, I'm just going to play. You can't like shoot, you know, shoot up your head there. Uh, it doesn't quite work like that for, for brain injury. So I think you take it slowly here, but I do think that the Jags could focus on running the ball here.

Tampa Bay run defense has not been that good lately. So there's six in EPA fourth and explosive run rate allowed, but 31st and rushing success rate allowed, which is a pretty stark difference essentially. So on a play to play basis, they haven't been that good, but they're allowing a lot of touchdowns. They're still allowing some big play or they're not allowing big plays.

So personally, I, you know, tend to value like the play to play basis more than like, you know, just touchdowns or just big plays. I think some of that is a little bit noisy. I personally think that they'll be able to run the ball here, even though the Jaguars haven't been super strong in that area. And then the Bucs offense, another side here, has far exceeded at least mine and Newton's expectations with Dave Canales this season.

And they're getting a Jags defense that just hasn't been playing all that well as of lately. You know, they're top five in rushing success rate, but they're past defense since week nine, eight and a half yards per time, nearly 70% completion rate. I mean, they're getting cooked by, you know, basically everyone last few weeks. So, you know, I think that there's plenty of ways here the Bucs can still score regardless if Lawrence is in. And then even if Lawrence does play, I can see them kind of skewing run heavy here and trying to focus on that advantage. But I mean, the Bucs test team hasn't been that good either with how beat up they've been so

it's it's not a game that i'm looking to bet on as it currently stands because of lawrence but i think that if you take him out and put in bethard there could be some angles here uh you know i think we'll just have to dig more of that when we get the news i mean my two my favorite futures and the futures have been so good the last couple of years. I mean, I love the Rams under. I love the Bucs under, and those are. They're not dead, but man, they are both on massive life support. Pretty much dead very, very soon. Both teams are playing well.

Yeah, I mean, so kudos to Baker, I think, massively exceeding expectations. Part of the handicap on the Bucs, 1,000% correct, but none of it mattered because Baker's made up for some of those things as well. Secondary is weak. They can't stay healthy. That's what's happened, and they are still winning football games. So they deserve it, and here we are. No one wants to win that division, and that was part of our handicap all season,

and that was correct. And the Bucs have done a good job exploiting that schedule they all somewhat have i mean even you know six and eight uh falcons team has done a good job exploiting the the poor schedule they have but like the bucks that were yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record they are oh and six against teams with a winning record so they still have to do it against uh you know a team that matters they don't necessarily like they don't have to and they can still get to the playoffs because that's how bad the other teams in the south are but uh yeah I'm not sure this is the spot and this would feel like a cheap way to get it if they got it with a uh

with a beat hard start instead of a a t-law start so we'll have to wait and see yeah all right yeah yeah we'll see I mean I I don't know like you said it's a black box we have no idea like there's no lean we don't we don't and then you know it's someone's personal life we don't necessarily we're not entitled to knowing where someone is in the steps and all those things so we just have to wait and see and be ready to react if you have a lean very similar teams that uh basically are doppelgangers we We have Dallas is on the road in Miami. Both clubs have absolutely boat raced mid to bottom tier teams this season. They have both struggled when moving up in class.

Dolphins have played three teams this season that appear to be playoff bound at this point, all three on the road, and have lost all three. The Cowboys quieted that talk a bit when they dominated the Eagles in week 14, but did they give it all back last week when they got absolutely crushed by the Bills? Again, another spot where small sample size for sure, but this home road narrative remains there for Dallas and gets a little bit stronger after what happened last week. This line was Dallas minus one and a half in the lookaheads. Now we're minus one and a half on Miami's side.

Total 51, 51 and a half there as well. Connor, the floor is yours. What are your thoughts on this one? Probably one of the best matchups here of the week. Yeah, there's a couple of different angles that I think are interesting. So obviously we saw the Bills just run all over the Cowboys. And I think that, you know, I'm sure Mike McDaniel saw that and was very interested in probably continuing that same path here in some ways. But the question is whether the Dolphins can execute that type of dominance. I'm sure Mike McDaniel saw that and was very interested in probably continuing that same path here in some ways.

But the question is whether the Dolphins can execute that type of dominance. And I don't know the answer to that, and I kind of lean towards that not being the case. So the Cowboys right now, dead last in rushing success rate allowed prior to last game, which is obviously important. They were still 31st, so it's not like it was just a one-game thing where they got beat up. They were still not good on a success rate basis heading into last week. And so now this week, though, it's like, can Miami execute that? And if they're probably receive a little bit more middling results, what else are they going to do here? Because Dallas can get really good pressure. We've seen Tua, you know, struggle under pressure from time to time,

but with Tyreek back, and I think Mike McDaniel can probably help mitigate some of that pressure by scheming up shorter, you know, shorter throws here. Dallas also likes to play a lot of man coverage. Miami has absolutely wrecked man coverage. I mean, Tyree kill, they've only, he's only run 80 routes or something against man coverage this season because no one plays it against him because he absolutely murders them every time. And he does like, it's like literally it's like almost five yards per out run he's averaging. So it's just a really tough matchup, I think for both sides, whether what Dallas wants to do defensively and how Miami wants to approach it. But it's not

strong enough. And I think there's pros and cons where I want to take a side and be like, okay, I think Miami is going to absolutely go crazy here. And the other side is Dolphins defense. I saw Daigle tweeted this out, actually. It's like Dolphins defense with Jalen Ramsey, week eight on, first in yards per play, first in EPA per play, first in EPA per dropback. But I don't want to be fooled here because the Dolphins even as this played against the Jets twice, the Raiders, the commanders, and then allowed 28 points to the Titans. So yes, they are definitely better. They are absolutely a hundred percent a better defense than they were at one point. But are they, you know, first, probably not. Are they top five? I'd still say still probably not. I think they're probably

somewhere in that, you know, bottom 10 ish or like top 10 ish range in there, like eight to 12, probably at this point as it stands. So how does that factor into this point here? I've could not be more disappointed in Dallas and what they drop offensively last week. I mean, I just thought it was the stone cold worst game plan I've ever seen in my

life against the bills. And so, you know, I don't have much faith either way here. I'm curious on, on Clark, your thoughts though, because i don't have much faith either way here i'm curious on on clark your thoughts though because i i would love to be convinced either way and i think there are strong angles on both sides but also there's counter arguments on both sides so i haven't played anything yeah i also think that there are some key injury concerns here i mean terry kill is not a

guaranteed play the the dolphins all year have played it cautiously with their questionable players like a lot of questionable players have been ruled out on game day. So even if he gets in, he didn't practice today. Even if he gets a limited practice tomorrow, I'm not putting him in pen in the lineup. It's pencil for sure. And then the offensive line is banged up for Miami too. Dallas dealing with an injury to Zach Martin was massive. After he went out of the game, you could see the difference on that offensive line.

He's just heart and soul of that offensive line. So a lot to sort out here, injury-wise. As far as the matchup goes, I think you have to watch that Bills-Cowboys game and decide for yourself, was that the Bills dominating the Cowboys, or was it the Cowboys not playing well enough to compete with the Bills? Because I think those are two different questions. And I came away from watching it thinking the Bills dominated them. Like it was 100% effort of the Bills. It was the Bills making sick catches. You know, you got James Cook making fingertip catch in the end zone. You got, you know, Diggs fingertip catch on third down

after Josh Allen makes a miracle play. You got the, you know, the Cowboys came in for a punt block and he missed the ball and ran into the punter, you know, extending the drive for the Bills. And that kind of like killed the Cowboys' momentum to that point. Not that they had a ton. The crowd was crazy. I mean, you could hear them throughout the game.

It was just an environment that was just completely, you know, when you talk about the home crowd making a difference, that was what it looks like. So I think there was a lot of elements of that that had nothing to do with the Cowboys, had more to do with what the Bills needed to put on tape to make themselves make that playoff push. So I'm not downgrading the Cowboys dramatically after that loss. If I was, I would want to be on Miami because obviously the Cowboys look bad.

But I think if it gets Zark Martin back, they back they can you know get a slightly more favorable like it's not like miami's easy to play in but miami fans aren't as passionate as buffalo fans nobody's jumping through tables in south beach right um so i think it'll be a slightly more favorable situation for the cowboys to get back in fact we often see well-coached and talented teams bounce back after these kinds of losses we've seen it again. Like, it has a refocusing impact. Like, you spend that whole week thinking about what tastes that left in your mouth. Like, this is a spot where the Cowboys

have to really put it together. So I think there's a lot of reasons to kind of fade the idea that the Cowboys suck. But the question is, if Tyreek Hill's healthy and the offensive line is healthy, does it matter? Like, can they keep up with the Dolphins' speed on the outside and over the middle and you know i have significant doubts

at that point so i think that's why we're seeing a total as high as 51 and a half in today's nfl it's a massive total um so and i think that makes sense like both offenses should have some success and both offenses should have some explosive plays which is key to getting there i haven't i haven't taken a position on this game yet I'm still kind of checking out the injury reports and kind of like digging into it. I think this one requires some time and effort. And I'm not really particularly concerned about the line moving dramatically. I mean, maybe if Tyreek Hill is ruled out, you know, maybe the Cowboys gets flipped to favorites. But if Tyreek Hill gets ruled out, I don't want the Dolphins anyway, right? So this is a wait and see game for me with lots of intrigue. And I'm gonna be super

excited to watch it play out too. Yeah, even if we get Tyreek in, I don't think we get to three. So I get your point. I don't think that there's a need to jump again on anything early here. The offensive line injuries on both sides I think are pretty impactful because both teams can get pressure, even though we don't have a fully healthy Miami defense either with Jalen Phillips out. They've still been able to generate a ton of pressure.

Siegel and Wilkins up the middle. Chubb's been great. Van Ginkle at the edge. They've still been getting a ton of pressure. And then we saw what happened. Buffalo's early season pressure numbers were great, but they looked like that kind of unit last week. When Zach Martin went out, they'd already had some guys pregamegame that weren't even in so that became a problem for Dallas too and then like

Connor said like Dallas has been bad against the run all season but with Jonathan Hankins out like Jonathan Hankins isn't like a great interior defensive lineman but he's really big uh it just like you need to account for his size and like eating up space because they're a little bit smaller in the interior then you add like Maisieith has to play more snaps he's also like really small too it just became like a really clear way a game plan here for like what the bills needed to do so kudos to joe brady for just being like why are we gonna stop they cannot stop this yet let's just keep doing what's working which is you know seems so like natural but not always what teams do it's like oh no this is this is what our game plan was this is our agenda we're gonna come teams do it's like oh no this is this is what our game

plan was this is our agenda we're gonna come and do this but like all right we're just gonna keep doing you know variations of the same two or three plays until you can stop it so you know i think these are massive massive injuries in terms of handicapping this game so no rush to jump in here too and then the man piece like connor outlined too i think is a massive you know piece of intriguing uh strategy here because like again, even the man heaviest teams like Dallas, you know, in the league, like they're still playing sub 50% man.

But what does that look like? Are you playing 20% man? Are you even risking that with Tyreek against a defense that I know like digs isn't healthy anymore, but like they still take a lot of chances. They like, there's a little bit of risk it, no,

no risky, no biscuit in that backend too. So like, this is not a good matchup for that either so just gonna be a great football game to watch i don't know where i want to jump in uh because the explosive piece still makes me think that there's room for points even though the point total is like may as well be 60 in this nfl at 51 51 and a half like that's a massive massive number uh so maybe it's a team total if i have a lean or something like that. So definitely a market to watch as we get closer to closer to kick on Sunday. All right.

The bell of a ball. We have three games on Christmas. They are good football. There's some good football teams, not some great football games, but the last one should be pretty good. Baltimore is in san francisco here uh pinning the top seeds in each conference against against each other here niners uh we're five and a half basically across the board looks like you can still get a five on fanduel uh 46 and a half shading to 47 now we've even moved to 47 in a lot

of spots and the totalals continues to move. Kick it to you, Clark. I mean, the Niners are an absolute wagon. I feel like we know that we're like paying peak price essentially for the Niners, right? Like market sentiment is as high as ever.

You're basically telling us right now that for the most part, the Niners are five points better than any other team in the league, essentially, right? Four points, whatever your home field adjustment is for the Niners, probably less than two, whatever that is. Pretty substantial.

We know that they had that little three-game hiccup in the middle, but it's very easy to go back and pinpoint, no Trent Williams, no Deebo Samuel. When they have all the horses, they are unstoppable. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, Merry Christmas. This is a treat for football fans. I'm excited about it. There's your thoughts on this one? Yeah. Merry Christmas. This is a treat for football fans. I'm excited about it. There's so many implications, right? It's a big MVP

implications game. The, the, if the Niners win, you know, it's, it's Purdy or CMC, probably Purdy. If the Ravens win and Lamar has a good game and Purdy struggles, now all of a sudden it's wide open, right? You can make the case for Lamar if the Ravens went out. Even if Ravens don't win out, it brings into play guys like Josh Allen if the 49ers don't win out. So super interesting game with implications. But as far as the matchup goes, we are. We're seeing the 49ers priced at their peak, but that's not been a problem for them because they've just been rolling people. I mean, two weeks ago, they didn't cover the spread, a massive spread against Seattle. And even that was kind of like a late game variance when you're dealing with that, you know, 14 point spread or whatever it ended at. And it depends on what you got spread

at, frankly, for that one. But five and a half at home against the Ravens, certainly doable. But I'm really interested to see whether or not the Ravens defense can do something to stop this offense, right? One thing we've seen from this 49anners offense is it's like a hydra with like you know three heads you chop off one of his heads another one grows back or two more grow back like you you try to take out you know okay we're going to focus on stopping CMC it's like okay like Debo Samuel is going to get the ball and he's going to turn a five yard catch into a 30 yard you know run we got Brandon IU over the middle wide open because if you're not doubling him he's going to cut inside and catch that ball for 15 yards easy you know

you got george kittle somehow escaping out the side because you know you're too focused on the other three guys and now george kill's got a 40 yard catch like the the offense is so well designed to create open space i'm really interested to see if a really good defense like the ravens can stop it if they can if they can disrupt this offense, then I think there are some concerns about this Niners offense because you're still relying on Brock Purdy, who is not a caliber of quarterback the likes of any of the top quarterbacks in the league. I know he's a good player. I understand that. I know his stats are fantastic. But he's not the kind of player who, when things are tough, he can just start creating against a bad defense. He needs that structure to succeed at the level

that he's been succeeding at. And I understand that he's also pretty good at scrambling. He can create plays. He can extend plays on the run. He had a beautiful pass on the run last week, but it's not something that's consistently part of his game. He's not a high volume thrower. He's not a high volume scrambler. And I think if the Ravens can make him uncomfortable, then there's an actual chance that the Ravens can win this game outright on the road. But that's a big if, and not an if that I'm necessarily putting any money behind, but it's something that I want to see because that's going to have a big, you know, it's going to alter how I view the playoff race, basically, and how I expect this Niners team to handle the run through the NFC. And then the last thing I want to talk about is the defensive injuries on the Niners.

I mean, Jason Hargrave, Javon Hargrave, and Eric Armstead were out last week, and that made a difference against the Cardinals offense that looked actually better than I would have expected. So if those guys are out again, then the Ravens might have it a little bit easier up front on offense. So some things, some injury reports to watch before I take the final position, but definitely some intrigue. And I don't think this is going to be one way easy action for the Niners. Were you on this one, Connor? Yeah. So I'm just real quick. I think if Clark had an MVP vote, he would not be voting for Purdy. I would not be. Couldn't tell at all

there. No, just kidding. Yeah, I don't know. I think... I have a pretty ticket because I don't get to vote. The dumb people voting are going to vote pretty, and that's fine. Smart man. Yeah, I think that's a very fair angle here. I think there's a couple of unique spots here where I think that Baltimore's defense may

not be quite as dominant as we've seen it for the majority of the season. And one of them, I think think is in the running game here. So their run defense is 11th and EPA per play 15th and explosive run rate 17th and rushing success rate. And I think that's a massive problem here against the Niners team that at its core, if they can run, you're pretty much screwed.

I mean, like in my mind, that's kind of like the core of stopping this offense is that you need to stop the run and then hopefully stop the pass. And so if they can't do that, then I think it's not over, but it's going to be really tough for, to hold the Niners like less than 21, 24 points in this spot. And so also we've kind of seen from a couple of times now, Baltimore has gotten exposed, you know, defensively, you know, Stafford pushed the ball downfield against them, you

know, the Ram and Deshaun Watson even, you know, had some success against them and scoring a little bit. And then, you know, we saw Baltimore played really well against Detroit, but that was a road game for the Lions. Their home road splits have been pronounced all year. They played well against Houston in week one. You know, again, not surprising that Stroud didn't really click right away. And then they played Seattle at home and absolutely wrecked them. Like those are the best offenses that they've played all year.

And now they're getting San Francisco, who in my mind is like a clear caliber ahead of basically everyone that they played so far this year. So we talked about it too, at the beginning, like I don't think that Baltimore's defense has necessarily like elite talent top to bottom. They are just incredibly,

incredibly well coached. Their scheming is incredible. Like from week to week basis in their game planning has largely been incredible. And so it's going to be, I think a battle of two, you know, masterminds here and how that, you know, goes back and forth. But on the other side too, I think Lamar's pressure splits are a concern here. If San Francisco is healthy, like getting pressure on Lamar could be an issue. And, you know, there are some rumblings that Zay Flowers was struggling after the game, like in a walking boot, potentially didn't practice again today.

That would obviously be a massive difference maker too, is kind of their chain moving wide out. I would say it's puts a lot of pressure on OBJ, Isaiah Likely, Rashad Bateman there to function against a pretty strong San Francisco defense. So as it stands, I like Niners minus five and a half here. But, you know, I think that depending on how the injury situation shakes up here, I could back Baltimore. But I think it's probably going to be a Niners look for me,

even at the peak of the market like you mentioned. I took four on Sunday night when it opens. I might take like some alts. Like, I don't know. The party stuff is so interesting to me because we pretend that like, I don't know i i i the the party stuff is so interesting to me because i like we pretend that like i don't know what the perception is i feel like and i know this is not addressing like you clark because i first of all i know that you're watching every game um but i feel like the general perception uh is like that this guy's just throwing like check downs and like shallow

crossers and like mesh concepts and just like everything at and around the line of scrimmage. That is not how they play football. And I don't know why this is the first time that an MVP-caliber quarterback is surrounded by a talented cast. The MVP is typically on a team that is going to the playoffs, which means there's a shit ton of other good players on his team. I'm sure it's a situation where we all think it's probably one of if not the best offensive minds in the game calling place they are absolutely loaded at the talent positions

so it's inarguable and the fact that you have to have a conversation about someone else on his team being in the mvp discussion isn't great either but part part of that is just, I think, where we come into, where our priors come in, right? We're bringing priors in from like, all right, you know, Mr. Irrelevance. This guy wasn't even, you know, started last season. He's coming off of like elbow surgery. We didn't even know what was going to be. People are betting Sam Donald for MVP because they're like, oh, we just, we can plug in whoever.

And that's, who's going to be the MVP this year's, whoever's the quarterback of the niners i think it's massively unfair you know and they got in the chat too like about elevating your talent also like you can make a case that he's elevating his talent like these are really talented players and they're absolutely a buzzsaw against everyone they play when they have everyone in the lineup so like i don't know i i think the the purdy stuff is is kind of jumped the shark at this point where it's a little too much now again everyone they play when they have everyone in the lineup so like i don't know i i think the the purdy stuff is is kind of jumped the shark at this point where it's a little too much now again the market's telling us that it's not because we're like minus 200 but there's just still a lot of slander i think in our space around how good he is now you can make a case for christian mccaffrey

being the mvp i just think this like game manager limited talents playing within the system it's like okay a lot of guys did that like joe montana played within the system right they they started the west coast offense that was a system that really wasn't there before when things went awry and jerry rice and john taylor were out it was really hard but when they weren't they were healthy joe montana was fantastic um so like it's tom brady was really good in the system when they had the ability to you know get the ball out and have players make plays because purdy has kind of the it stuff. We know that the quarterback position is really, really hard to evaluate. Teams whiff all the time in the draft. We whiff all the time, guys,

that we think are going to be good because sometimes it just is that ability to process information quickly. And I don't think we've seen anything for Purdy that makes you think this guy doesn't have that. And that more than anything, if you have enough arm strength and you have talent that can do something after the catch, it can elevate your team. So I think he's really darn good at the game. I think he's fun to watch. And I'm going to take maybe some 9.5s or something on the alt line

because I think there's some Jekyll and Hyde stuff on the Ravens. I think Connor touched on that. Sometimes they play to the level of their competition. And their offense, I think, could be, for the the most part if you look at most metrics we care about like 7 to 15 like they're good um and they can have some ceiling outcomes uh maybe they do if there's some injury issues here for the niners but like i just i don't i don't know what the niners the bad outcomes of the niners i think think are still pretty good. Yeah. The, uh, you want to know another guy who has also played in a pretty similar system, uh, with talent, Matt Ryan in 2017, when he won the MVP playing alongside Julio Jones, who's arguably one of the best slash most talented receivers of all time.

And it was just throwing, you know, lasers across the middle to him. Uh, you know, and obviously he didn't have a running back like Christian McCaffrey, but the whole offense, they, they were crushing, you know, I don didn't have a running back like christian mccaffrey but the whole offense eight they were crushing you know i don't think matt ryan is super talented either but you know like being able to function and excel within that system was something that he did not do in his first year with kyle shanahan and then i'm talking about matt ryan still and then the second year one mvp basically you know kind of connecting all together and we've seen brock purdy do nothing but basically crush from the get-go as a basically late-round guy and come in with a ton of talent. The reason that people disagree with you, Noonan,

I think to Clark's point is that he doesn't have to do anything else. Mahomes runs around and throws a dart across his body, and the guy runs for 50 yards and touchdowns, and you're like, all right, that's sick. He did that. Purdy doesn't have to do that because someone's always open so it's like and i don't think he's really capable of doing that to be fair too to clark's point like you're probably not as talented as like mahomes josh allen like any of these guys indisputable yes but he's playing

at a level that i think is incredibly incredibly high and team is winning games so it's probably going to be in for mvp in my mind um But I can see why if you're just evaluating like a talent basis, like he's not a top five quarterback, you know, in any world on a talent basis, plugging him into a neutral system, but he doesn't have to be because I don't think that's what the award is at this point. Yeah. I mean, I think the people that, cause you know, like you said, I've watched every, every game. I've watched every snap of every game this season for every team. And I, so I'm not, I'm not basing this on preconceived notions of who Purdy is. In fact, I was higher on Purdy than most people like all of last year and going into this year. Like I like Purdy a lot. But it's just when you,

when you watch him, it's like, man, he has all this time in the pocket. This guy's wide open downfield and he's, and he makes a good throw. Like I'm not, I don't think anyone's out here saying Purdy's not good but it's just when you watch that offense there's so many reasons why it's successful that's not what purdy is bringing to the table i think it plays like you know he takes a sack on second down to make it like third and 20 uh this was earlier in the year and then he just throws a bubble screen on third and 20 and debo takes it 25 yards for the first down and he gets like a massive epa boost massive yards for you know and it's like no it's not every play he's not just throwing screens and throwing at the line of scrimmage like he's throwing downfield but the ability of his his players

you know there was a play against I think it was Philadelphia where he threw it like five yards over the middle to Debo like he was just sitting there it's like okay here you go Debo Debo runs it for 40 yards because he's a stud you know Christian, Christian McCaffrey's doing the same thing. And even when they're running the ball, like Christian McCaffrey's getting chunks of yards on the ground, which is forcing defenses into, you know, coming closer to the line and just freeing up that space in the backside. So it's just, it's on easy mode for him,

and he's doing a great job with it. So if he wins MVP, I won't be upset because he's done what he needs to do to win it, and none of the other quarterbacks, frankly, have stepped up in that way. So I think if it makes sense to give it to a guy who's not the best quarterback in the league, like this is the year to do that. And that's why I took out a ticket on it. But the idea that he is the best and most valuable player in the league is just a silly concept in my opinion.

Also, I want to point out the Niners offense, since they last lost a game, here are the defenses they've faced. Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Philadelphia, Seattle, Arizona. Like, probably every one of those defenses is below average. Maybe you can make a case for some of those being at average. But that's why I'm interested to see how they do against Baltimore. If they roll Baltimore, then it's like, okay, this offense is built to beat everybody in the NFL. But if they struggle in this game in particular, it carries more weight because then it's like, oh, okay, so they rolled like seven bad defenses

and then they struggle with one bad defense. And that's why I say it impacts how I view their playoff run because in the playoffs, they're going to face a lot more difficult defenses, especially if they get to the Super Bowl. So this is a big game, I think, for projecting San Francisco forward. And I think if they do roll them, if all your bets are correct, I think that's a pretty good sign that the Niners are set for a Super Bowl run if they don't get injured.

Yeah, yeah, that's all we want too, right? As we come out of it healthy, both sides, we can actually get the best versions of these teams moving forward and we can actually see how they line up and stack up here so yeah yeah i'm hopeful for that it's uh also also important to note that if anyone says a player should win mvp because of their epa just throw the argument in the garbage half the voters don't even understand what epa is or have never even heard of it slash don't believe in it. So just like, you know, you can make a case for,

you can make a good case of why someone you think someone should win MVP because of that. But if that's your case of why you think they will win MVP because of what the voters will vote, just forget about it. I think, you know, yeah. But it's not a coincidence that everyone like dating back to Cam Newton. Okay. So since, since Cam Newton won, every quarterback that has won has either been number one in epa per play or barely number two right so i think it was uh mahomes was like barely behind drew brees both of them had really high epas and then uh there was another

one brady was slightly ahead of uh maybe aaron rodgers anyway um every year and and this year purdy is so far above everybody, every other quarterback. Lamar Jackson is second quarterback in MVP voting right now, and Purdy is like 0.35 or something, and Lamar Jackson is like 0.9. Like, it's a massive difference. This isn't some obscure stat where it's like, oh, you can contextualize it. Like, Purdy is straight up being more efficient by a mile than every other quarterback in the league so i do understand the epa argument even though even though the voters probably don't you know check out right because it well it does a great job capturing efficiency

and touchdowns like all in one status efficiency yeah right like i think that's why it's so related to mvp voting is like it does like capture because they have a ton of big plays they have a ton of touchdowns like that's you know it's significantly better than baltimore you know like one-to-one basis so i mean if it was just the best play in the league award that's different like first of all then you just you have these pockets of history where no one else wins it except one guy and we are in like the patrick mahomes era we would just give it to patrick mahomes every year because no one here is going to make a sound argument that he's not the best football player and probably even the most valuable to his team right because we don't think that that chief's roster is world beaters on really either side of the ball defense is better

but like patrick mahomes is probably the most valuable and you get into like all right then it's josh allen right because where the chiefs or the bills without josh allen we just can't that's not what we're doing right because that's a totally different thing than you would have had, you know, these Tom Brady every year, Peyton Manning for a chunk of labor, the alternated years, whoever had the best stats because they're both awesome. Like, it's just not what the award is. So, you know, it is what it is. No one's making the argument that Purdy is, you know, top three,

top five quarterback or the best. But having the best season, tied to the best team. I've heard some, like like you know the other we can roll into some other future thoughts if you guys have any like oh shanahan can't win coach of the year because he's probably gonna have the mvp on this team well we've had a couple examples of that in the last handful of years first of all with the ravens you had harbaugh win coach of the year i think 2019 the same year the lamar won the cam newton year riverboat ron won coach of the year so like you can have some of these things work out at the

same exact time so it's uh you know yeah believe it or not ron rivera one coach of the year but yeah uh but yeah i mean so that's interesting you guys have any other future thoughts or any other you know awards markets that we didn't touch on on the top here anything you want to touch on here uh open floor another game in week 16 clark uh futures anything you got awards um nothing in futures or awards this week i mean like i haven't had time frankly with my traveling to like break down the different prices there's probably some value somewhere on the board you know you got to look at things like how does cj stroud's concussion impact the playoff picture in the afc like there's probably some prices that you might be able to pick off there. As for games this week,

I played the Saints on Thursday night football, plus four and a half, but it's good at plus four still. This is a stylistic matchup I like for the Saints, where we see Matthew Stafford have more trouble with man-heavy defenses that can actually cover his receivers.

Also, they've been relying on Kyron Williams a lot in the offense. And I think the Saints run defense is good enough to cause Kyron Williams some problems. Like the thing about a good running game is no matter how good the running game is, if the defense beats you up front, you know, Kyron Williams isn't running through people. He's just been, you know, getting through his holes effectively. So I think if the Saints defense can stop the run, then that puts a lot on Stafford's shoulders and makes this game tighter than the spread would suggest over the three, over the

key number of three. And I think Chris Alave coming back matters for the Saints. They finally got Shahid, Alave, and Taysom Hill all back healthy. Their offense looks different when they have all their weapons, especially in the red zone. So I think the Saints should be able to keep up with the Rams in this one. What's on the menu for you, Connor? What do you got? I don't know. I was just checking the office of player of the year market, and I think Tyreek Hill plus 105 if he plays this week is a little short

because I think two weeks ago we were looking at him like minus 175, minus 200 in this market, and people were like, oh, that's way too short because, I mean, he's just absolutely dominating. Then he takes one week off, like one and a half, kind of basically getting injured. And now Christian McCaffrey's minus 160 here. I don't know. I'm going to probably throw some money at Tyreek because as long as the report keeps going up here because he has a big game here.

I mean, if Dallas is playing, man, I'm going to be betting longest completion overs for Tua. I'm going to be betting all this crazy shit. I mean, 100 yards and two touchdowns for Tyreek here, and he's going to be back to minus 200, even if CMC scores two touchdowns. So I think that's an interesting look. Another one, gross one that I don't know if Clark played this game yet, but this is maybe one of my grossest bets today, but I think I'm 2-0 on gross bets so far on the year that I bring up on the show. Carolina plus five against Green Bay. I kind of like it. I at home, we're getting

Carolina playing significantly better defense, like their run defense, you know, last couple weeks have been playing better. Their past defense has largely been playing well, even against, you know, CJ Stroud after the bye, Dak Prescott, you know, largely played pretty solid. Then the Packers run defense, they get along over five yards per carry. Like there's a path for them to be reasonably efficient offensively for once ever. And then there's also a path for them to slowing down the Packers. It could be without Christian Watts. It could be without Jaden Reed.

It's not as clear cut how Jordan Love is going to win in this game. I don't know. Five points at home seemed like a little bit high there at this point. It's a gross, I might go take a shower after I bet it, but I think there's a little bit of value there. Take the money line, bud. You know what? Why not?

Good teams win, great teams cover. I mean, the best teams win outright, you know? Be an interesting game as a Patriots fan here with, you know, the Panthers continuing to win some football games. You know, our Broncos, Pat's going head-to-head on Christmas Eve here, Connor. I mean, you know, I shouldn pats going head to head on christmas eve here connor um i mean you know i shouldn't be six point favorites i they shouldn't right like that's like i don't want to take new england but they the broncos should not be six and a half point favorites

uh at all uh clark that seems like a bet that you probably were dancing around at least a little bit what are your what are your thoughts on Patriots and Broncos? I'm worried about the Patriots offensive line. Cole Strange got put on IR this week. Trent Brown missed last week. Their entire offense relies on succeeding on the ground. Now, the Broncos have been beaten on the ground, so it's possible, but if that offensive line isn't banged up enough, it violates my rule of never betting on teams with a cluster injury in the offensive line. So probably a pass for me.

Connor, your Panthers bet gets the Sherrod Clark stamp for approval, though. Let's go. I had a feeling that you might like that. You didn't like it or absolutely hate it and want Packers-Alts. I thought it would be one of the two. I just wasn't sure which one.

No, I think there's value in the Panthers. We are going back to making another quarterback change in Atlanta. Desmond Ritter is all done. We are back to the Taylor Heineke show here. Clark, it looks like we've put Desmond Ritter down for the season. Yeah, but you know how many passing yards he got? He crossed the line for you, though, right? I think it was like 2517 or something.

I bet over 2,500 passing yards for my only season-long player prop. Let's go. No doubt in my mind at any point that he was going to do that. So, yeah, Heineke is not really an upgrade or downgrade in my mind. I think he's kind of a neutral. They don't really trust Heineken from what I've seen, so it's going to be a run-heavy approach, which hopefully if they use Bichon might be successful.

But this is a Falcons team that's spiraling, frankly. I'm not going to get heavily involved with them. Even at home against a Colts team coming off a big win, it's just not a spot where I want to jump on it. All right. Let's see if there's anything else on the board. Nothing that's too, too exciting to me here. Yeah, New England did jump out.

I was like, man, they should not be six and a half point dogs. Sorry, Denver just shouldn't be six and a half point favorites really. I don't think against anyone at this point. But, yeah, I can't have it. And, again, I need New England to make sure that they lose. We cannot get cute and force our way down the board here.

Eye on the prize, focus, stay to the top of the board here. Let's not get fancy. So, all right, gentlemen, good stuff as always. Oh, one last one. Dead count, dead cat bounce for the Chargers.

Connor, what do you think? You lose the coach. You typically see that and the market kind of responded this way because this got out to 14 and now we're like 11 and a half um which is again like just wild to me a market over correction from you know say a month ago from the chargers but it's obviously such a massively different situation without justin herbert but you know we've seen this a little bit here what are your thoughts on, you know, a massive, massive line here to start the Saturday slate? Yeah, two things.

I do not think Buffalo is just like some run-heavy team all of a sudden. Like that was very, very much matchup driven. And I think that they might just chuck it. Like they might throw it, like exploit the Chargers deep downfield basically the entire game. So I'm not super interested in uh you know backing the charters here but i also am curious to see if easton stick runs the ball more this dude is super athletic in college like ran like a four six or something like that ran a bunch

has had no interest in running like zero interest in his first game and running the ball at all and i mean they also had like zero designed runs at all i mean i know that's not really typically his thing but like you figure you want to get at least moving a little bit and they did none of that so i don't know could be like if he can start moving a little bit maybe they can keep it like somewhat close but i'm kind of scared of the bills just dropping 30 but it's time through the air instead of like running the ball so i don't know i think that's probably my angle on the game when everyone you know and everyone you see on twitter has the same exact prop bet for a game that is a like a telltale sign that you're probably on the wrong side i saw people that didn't even know that bet

props were like sweating aces stick rushing yards and i was like this is not a place to be and uh yeah did not go very well uh clark any thoughts on uh on that one there on Saturday? Let sleeping cats lie. It's probably dead. It's probably dead. So, all right. Well, regardless of what you believe in or if or how you celebrate, I hope the upcoming week for you as our listeners comes with little to no stress.

Hopefully some good food, some good beverages, as much quality time with people that you want quality time with as possible. Hopefully some winning bets as well. So for Connor and Clark, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everybody. you