Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 17 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions | Detroit Lions & More!

Episode Date: December 28, 2023

Unleash your betting potential with our ULTIMATE Week 17 NFL BETTING GUIDE! Dive into expert insights on the best BETS, latest Odds, and accurate Predictions for an exciting NFL Week 17. Featuring a special focus on the Detroit Lions, this is your go-to source for smart, informed NFL betting picks and strategies. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the game, get ready to amplify your NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on valuable tips and analysis.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  / sharpclarkenfl  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends to talk about size and totals in the best matchups here, the Week 17 NFL slate. Joining me here, as always, from location unknown, it is Connor Allen. Connor, you really made it today in the internet fame. You have a person that is trying to knock off Connor Allen himself. And yeah, congratulations, man.

This is Christmas a couple of days late. Yeah, it's interesting. I've had a wild week on Twitter because we're coming off of official, what I'm naming now December 27th as Ryan Noonan Day. I was in Mexico. I drank tequila and pineapple by the pool, which is your go-to drink. Mixed a little mango juice in there too, but it was pretty solid. And then I told some troll on Twitter to go pound sand,

which is notoriously your saying as well. But then today I wake up and some people were sending me screenshots of Conor Allen NFL with one N, C-O-N-O-R, which first off, I mean, disaster. And then is saying to sign up for their cryptocurrency exchange thing and like all this bullshit. So, you know what? Every day is a new day on Twitter. But please report that individual if possible, because I don't want anyone to fall for me trying to shill crypto. I think we sell enough betting subscriptions that we don't have to do that yet.

Right. You know, get an engagement because if you look back, i mean um it's a weird thing because i went down i saw it when you posted it in our discord the account's like 10 years old so it's like it was an old account that he just started doing this to you like the 26th or so so you know whatever deleted all other stuff has a small following um is engaging with your tweets so like you gotta be careful i wouldn't want to you know talk down to it too much it's it's giving you some uh some clout bump in there too so very very interesting people are wild on the internet uh but i appreciate you you know sometimes people

need to be told to go pound sands it's maybe an old saying it's one that i'm not uh you know afraid to use but i'm glad that i was able to rub off on you in a good way, along with the tequila pineapple. Also joining us as always from his home, we typically is sharp Clark. What's going on, buddy? Not much. I basically can't use Twitter because I made the mistake of retweeting a fairly prominent MVP discussion topic. And now every time I didn't look at my phone, I got 20 notifications because somebody's arguing in the comments of that thing that I retweeted. And it's like,

how do I take my name off this so I could stop reading this MVP debate? It's the worst. Yeah. Get into the MVP discourse in general. I think it's pretty terrible, but yeah, getting sucked up into comment section and people having conversations, just untag people.

Yeah. You can untag yourself. I can show you if you don't know how yeah that sucks no yeah okay that used to be great yeah or twitter it used to be fantastic and now it's uh well it's too bad it's sometimes an absolute wasteland but uh we're uh coming down here to the home stretch and we will uh you know do our best to continue to you know next week's really problematic in terms of like handicapping games this week we still have you know very much of a normal schedule although we're here on thursday instead of wednesday i'm not sure what look tomorrow or next week looks like because we might be in the same situation but we'll figure that out uh we'll let you know you can find us on twitter we'll let you know what's going on there just subscribe to the bet youtube channel here four for four bets or the podcast feed you don't

miss a show. You can hang out with us live, but otherwise you'll still be able to get it. If you're here hanging out with us, let us know what any of your Week 17 looks are. Hit us with a subscribe, a thumbs up. All those things in the video will go a long way in supporting. We will be back tomorrow with Prop Drop. Earlier than normal, too, we typically come around 3 p.m. Eastern. We're going to be at noon Eastern for Prop Drop on Friday.

So come back if you want our thoughts on the Week 17 player prop slate. You can also scoop up a betting subscription if you want to read all of our content. You want to get in our Discord, get all the official plays. You want to bet NBA with us, all those things. Maybe you're considering us for your 2024 football work. Get a taste of now. Come on in. Get a sense of what we have, what we offer.

All those things are still fired on the site. Massively discounted. Get over to 444.com slash plans. Get the betting sub. Gets access to everything. So check us out there. All right. We are two weeks out for the playoffs.

Million different iterations of each conference's playoff picture. It's a critical time for futures, critical time for the awards market. We saw on Monday night, which is probably what Clark's talking about. He got sucked into that. Like awards markets can shift drastically. This time of year,

we saw it last year with like the coach of the year award, like that shifted massively in the last couple of weeks. So I'm really hesitant to say that any award really outside of, I think the rookie awards are pretty much locked in like CJ Stroud, Jalen Carter, at least they're massive favorites. And I really can't see a scenario in which they lose those, but we're kind of knee deep in the,

like if this, then scenarios right now in terms of divisions, playoffs, seedings, all that stuff. Connor, I'll start with you. Is there anything on the board in terms of futures?

Again, can it be team-wise to make the playoffs, to win the division, and could it be an award? Anything that has caught your eye right now heading into the final couple weeks? Yeah, so shout-out to us for talking about Lamar Jackson MVP a couple weeks ago, like 8-1 or whatever, when it was that. Obviously didn't go super hard on it, but I think the thought is what counts there a little bit. We were talking about it in our Discord. I played some Josh Allen 18-1 MVP mid-game for San Francisco. I think there's still some spots that are above 10, and I think he's not the favorite by any means. I don't think that he has the best chance,

but if you look at how the season can unfold here, you have Buffalo in two spots here where they could very easily win out and Miami could very easily not win the division if they don't win both of their games. And in that scenario, you have Josh Allen basically scoring, you know, close to 40 touchdowns total, winning the division after a terrible start to the season and potentially, you know, making a run for MVP. And so I think odds longer than 10 to one, I think is pretty interesting. Now, that being said, Lamar is a pretty good lead here. And one of those games of Miami losing would be against Baltimore.

And so if Baltimore beats Miami, I'm not going to say it's a shut and close, but that I think has another wrinkle there. So I think right now that there's still some value there because I think that at the end of the day, I don't think Lamar's stats are all that outstanding at the end of the day either from whatever variety you want to look at it. he's just won a couple of big games down the stretch when it mattered most. So I think that you can make the similar argument on Josh Allen if they close out the season strong. So that's probably my favorite look right now. I guess like, you know, that you can get slightly, you know, a little bit of juice for your squeeze there outside of like, you know,

laying some Lamar Jackson minus 200 or anything like that. Yeah, it looks like Caesars has a 10 on Josh Allen, a 14 is available on MGM. squeeze there outside of like you know laying some lamar jackson minus 200 or anything like that yeah it looks like caesar has a 10 on josh allen a 14's available on mgm if you can get down there um you have a prohibitive favor right now with lamar which is just absolutely wild shift from where we were last week clark and i know we you know we went back and forth on like brock purdy thoughts not necessarily like mvp specific stuff but just kind of like the discourse around Brock Purdy. What are your thoughts on any of these awards or anything in particular Brock Purdy himself?

Yeah, it felt very vindicating to watch that Monday night game after, you know, having to deal with the Brock Purdy fan club all year and not that Brock Purdy is not good because he had one bad game, but just kind of showing how a scheme-centric offense that doesn't rely on an elite quarterback can be disrupted by a really good defense.

And they haven't really played a lot of good defenses. The Niners haven't. So seeing them kind of go that badly against the Ravens was very vindicating. But I think Lamar is the favorite because of what he... He didn't even play that well, but his team played really well

and he was the best player. He's a's a quarterback played really well in the second half and I think uh playing well towards the end of the year for the team that has the best record when you're a quarterback that really is the most important player on your team uh like that I think you're just kind of a default favorite and and like you said if they if they beat Miami uh then Lamar probably wraps it up if they lose to Miami then I then I think the Bills can't win the division because I think Miami just needs to win one more game. So I'm having a hard time seeing the events that lead to a Josh Allen victory just because it's a narrative-driven award.

But I think if Miami beats Baltimore this weekend, then it is wide open. I think the MVP discussion is going to get crazier. If Miami wins both more wins, I think it's a much more boring Lamar win. I don't think there's a lot of value on, on Lamar Jackson right now. Well, they play week 18.

So that's the key. So I think if Miami or if Buffalo beats Miami in week 18, they would technically win the division for my understanding. Right. If they win this week too. I think if Miami we'll check, we'll check the records, but I think Miami wins this week. Miami win the division from my understanding, right? If they win this week too. I think if Miami – we'll check the records. No, if Miami wins this week, Miami wins the division. Yeah.

Yeah, they can clinch the division. And then you got essentially a sort of meaningless game from that. I mean, they're playing for the one seed, I guess. But, yeah, it just doesn't have the same – Josh Allen versus – or Bills versus Dolphins for the division has a lot more weight to it than sort of a, well, we know the Bills are the five seed or the

whatever, six seed or whatever they're going to be. Yeah, the Bills have nine wins. Yeah, so the Dolphins moved to 12 wins. They cannot catch them. So Miami solidifies the division with a win here. That's just interesting.

There were a couple of futures markets I was looking at, but the markets are just too smart at this point. There's too much information. I was hoping for a discount on the Niners futures after such a disappointing performance, but books barely even moved the line. They're like, yeah, we know they're still the best team. They're still the Super Bowl favorites.

That wasn't appealing to me. I was looking at the NFC South because really there's only one path for the Saints to win the division at this point. And that's if they win this week against Tampa Bay. And then Tampa Bay also has to lose to the Panthers next week. I went through the tiebreakers.

And so, and they also have to beat Atlanta next week. So that's three outcomes that have to go their way. I think Tampa Bay has it all but wrapped up. And so it's kind of like, okay, maybe you can get a little cheaper price on the Bucs. But again, betting markets understand they've got heavy, heavy favorites on the Bucs. All they have to do is one of the two games really take some of the pressure off this game, although I'm sure the Bucs would love to get it this week, but no value there. And then the third was one where I think it is interesting is if you think Trevor Lawrence may not play this week, then the Texans and Colts have to both be interesting on the division because both of them

are pretty significant underdogs at this point. And what you have is, you know, if the Jags lose to the Panthers, which probably won't happen with Lawrence, but maybe Lawrence plays and he's not healthy, or maybe Lawrence doesn't play, Panthers win, then essentially if the Colts or Texans win this week, both are favorites, they play each other next week and the winner will win the division. So I think that's an interesting look if you have a strong feeling about one of those two teams. My lean would be towards the Colts. You can get a better price than you can on the Texans, but I think that's just one to keep an eye on and check the prices on. Yeah, those are interesting too. There's so many that are, I think,

that are very, very intriguing because there are so many different tiebreaker scenarios for teams like, like the Raiders are very much alive to make the playoffs, even though like they're way back, right? And I think you can get like double digits on the Raiders to make the playoffs. It's basically like they have to win this game obviously but they kept themselves alive in a very

unique way because they have they have a bunch of tiebreakers that go their way too and with some of the ways that things play out they could be in a really good spot part of it for me too is like there's just a lot of talk of there's increasing amount of like browns for awards right like stefanski feels like a prominent coach of the year like leader uh people think if he wins tonight and they beat the jets that like he's kind of solidified that they they have an outside shot at the number one seat which is just wild we'll get to that later in the show um and not even like that wild to be honest like they they kind of do um and then you have some flacco comeback player of the year stuff right we've been fighting for

this like non-damar hamlin conversation for months he's barely played you know you have these quarterbacks like baker you have you know two what constitutes comeback we know it's like the most narratively driven award anyway it's kind of a wonky award and like flacco was literally on the couch um obviously working out and being very active. But, you know, we just we always use the term on the couch because that's just what you do when you retire. You just sit on the couch. Flacco was on the couch a couple of months ago and now slinging it and leading the Browns to the playoffs here. They're locked in. Miles Garrett, favorite for defensive player of the year. So, like, I have trouble and I like there are different pockets. It's not all the same like core voting group, but like,

are the Browns really just going to like sweep the board in terms of like a lot of these awards? That seems really weird to me. So I love what we've seen from Max Crosby, what he does out there in the football field defensively in terms of like how often he plays like 97% of the snaps defensive ends, like these edge rushers. They're a lot of the, like the top guys, not the top, top guys,

like the Watt, Garrett, Micah Parsons, they're playing often 85%, 90% of the snaps. All these other situational pass rush guys, they're like 65%, 70% of the snaps. Myles Garrett doesn't come off the field and is like a force in the run, stop game. He's been awesome. And you want to find a way to reward the Raiders in a different way.

And it feels like people don't necessarily want to give it to TJ Watt. They're not probably making the playoffs. We've seen some quiet like production wise from like the Parsons is late. He's fall down. He's kind of in there in the mix. Obviously, he's like plus 120 in most spots. Miles Garrett's right there. But Miles Garrett, like one, like, I don't know.

So 50 to one to max crosby to make the to win defensive player of the year is an interesting hedge to the raiders long shot chances to make the playoffs again this is 50 to 1. this is like beer and pizza money just sprinkle um you know because it's really nothing but i just thought that was an interesting like pivot to like the raiders being pretty viable to make the playoffs. If they win this week, this is a really big, they, you know,

they have to win this one. But it gets pretty interesting in terms of like their inter-conference tiebreakers against some of these other teams. Like they'd be in a position with a win the following week against Jared Stenum and the Broncos that could put them in the playoffs, which would be very, very, very interesting to see.

So kind of my favorite long shot play on the board, which again, if it doesn't happen, it's like I never said it. But if it happens, we can clip this and share it and it's fantastic. Best part of getting a good player right there, right? Right? I should put lock go play. It's guaranteed

50 to 1. Should be minus 300, but you can get it for 50 to one right now. Yeah, that one's, that one's interesting to me. So, all right, let's jump into week 17. Unique week. We have one Thursday night game here tonight. We have a Saturday game in place of the Monday night game.

One of the best ones of the week to give college football the stage on Monday night. We got a loaded Sunday, 14 games. Saturday night though is a banger. We'll get started here. We got Detroit on the road in Dallas. Congrats to the Lions for capturing their first division crown in 30 years. Connor wasn't even alive the last time Detroit won a division. Hell, the division that they won 30 years ago doesn't even exist anymore anymore so it's been a while congrats to that very very very passionate fan base um the i don't know the roar perhaps has been restored i don't know what constitute restoring of the roar but congrats to lions and your uh into your fan base um

more work lies ahead they took some money this morning though this was dallas minus six in most spots we're now down to five and a halfDuel has a juice to four and a half. Total is up a little bit as well. We opened at 51. 52 and a half, 53 is out there now, depending on your book. Both teams are in the playoffs. The Cowboys aren't dead for the division. Conference seating is still very much in play.

There's outside shots. So we're going to get full effort from both sides. The shenanigans, as we mentioned earlier, in terms of like resting all those things that's next week. Clark, I'll give you the floor here for lions and Cowboys. Yeah. I think the, the classic angle here is,

is sort of the lions just wrapped up the division for the first time in ages. Like you mentioned, they're coming off their huge divisional win against Minnesota. Whereas Dallas has now lost two road games in a row in somewhat embarrassing fashion. Obviously, they put up a good fight against Miami, but they really should have won that game. And now they get to go home and play against a team that is sitting fat and pretty, having accomplished what it set out to do this week. But I don't

really get how any of that would impact my analysis of this game, because this is a Dan Campbell team. There's no such thing as sitting fat and happy when you have that attitude on the leadership of the team. The Lions also potentially have something to play for. With the 49ers lost, they're now tied for the best record in the NFC. And I think they probably still need the Niners to lose a game, but the number one seed is still on the table. So this is definitely not a spot where the Lions are just going to lay down and die. That's just not their MO. So for me, I throw out all the motivational stuff and I just look at the numbers and I look at the matchup.

My numbers make this about three and a half for Dallas. So getting the six was very good value for me. Six and a half was very good value. Five and half I still like it I would play it down to four and a half on the for the Lions on the spread because not only do I like the numbers but the matchup also favors the Lions because the Cowboys defense has been susceptible to really good offensive lines that can dominate up front and create lanes when you think about one of the flaws of thinking only in terms of statistics is you say well the Dolphins are a really good run defense and they didn't have a particularly good offensive game against Dallas. But the way that the Dolphins win on the ground is a lot of speed and misdirection and end rounds and winning outside.

Whereas if you look at the Bills, another really good rushing team, they win by pushing up front. And when they play Dallas, they absolutely dominated. And so I think the Lions are much more akin to the Bills with a really, really good offensive line. They're not relying on scheme or speed or the threat of Terry Hill. They just went up front and push you. And I think they can do that against Dallas. And Dallas has struggled with this type of team all year.

So the idea that the Cowboys are going to be, you know, the offense is going to do well, right? They're at home against the defense that they can beat. So the Cowboys offense will be fine. But the idea that they are, you know, so confidently going to dominate this game that they should be laying five and a half points, I can't get there. So I see value on the underdog with the Lions

and I'm playing the spread. Yeah, I like that. So I think that's why we're at the total that we're at because there's definitely a case for the Lions being able to dictate up front. There's also some like fairly noteworthy splits in terms of like home road stuff for dac they've been great we know the lion secondary has been a problem i've also seen some pretty noteworthy splits in terms of golf here connor in terms of zone man stuff pressure clean pocket

type stuff that could be a factor here we know that you're going to see a lot of pressure from dallas i know we see a lot of man from dallas i know we see a lot of man from dallas as well golf has really feasted against zone has not been quite as sharp uh against man obviously most quarterbacks take a little bit of a hit in terms of pressure and clean pocket stuff but what are your thoughts on this one yeah just uh six yards per attempt uh against pressure right now this season i think that's what kind of has me leaning towards dallas in this spot because i totally agree with like everything that Clark said in terms of Detroit's going to be able to run the ball.

And I think that they're going to specifically 100% run the ball. And I have a prop coming later today, you know, related to that. But I do think that Detroit has a ton of success running on that end. You know, where I worry is that if Dallas gets up, you know, or is like constantly running down the field, like golf's going to be put in some very interesting situations and peculiar situations. And I think that that can cause a lot of issues for a player like Jared Goff, who, you know, does not really thrive with chaos, I would say. And so, you know, like in this spot

here, like I wouldn't, I'm not exactly the six, I'm not exactly the four and a half, but like, if I have to lean one way, I don't particularly think it's going to be a massive blowout or anything because I do expect Detroit to have some success on the ground. I just worry that if Dallas is running up and down the field and Detroit has to keep up in any sense or fashion, there are a lot of issues there potentially against this defense, which again, on a play-to-play basis has shown time and time again, at least against good teams, they're not all that good. But, you know, they create a lot of pressure.

They create havoc. So that's kind of where I would lean. But I do think, you know, Clark getting a plus six and a half, I think it opened was pretty strong. Yeah, six and a half I like quite a bit. Now that we've shifted, like you said, Connor, I would probably lean Dallas, you know, the four and a half or whatever. I mean, we're kind of in between no man's land once we're under the six.

So I think Clark got a good opener for sure. But as it currently stands, I think it's pretty interesting on the Dallas side. So I'm more interested to see what happens with the total, if there's any movement there. So I think the total could be interesting. I think we can get in a spot where both these teams have success offensively. And again, even though we're approaching what may as well be 70 in the NFL these days, being into the mid-50s, that's absolutely crazy.

I still think there's just pass to a lot of outs with both these teams having some success offensively. So that would be of interest to me too. Maybe team total on the Lions or Cowboys side, depending on what your lean is, would probably be my favorite play. All right,, we have the Saints on the road in Tampa. Feels like this division was going to come down to the final week.

Clark already touched on this too. A release to this game was going to be massively important, but Bucs can clinch their third straight division title with a win here. After last week's Bucs win, Saints lost. Tampa is really in the driver's seat here regardless of what happens in this game they need to win one of the next two the panthers

on deck in week 18 uh seems like a really good spot uh this line's been bouncing around between tampa two and a half and three we've got down to two for a few minutes yesterday basically a two and a half across the board total is held steady for the most part with 42 and a half uh dk has moved to 43 mgm still has a flat 42 i was surprised in this game early this season i think it's like week four uh the bucks went into new orleans and won something like an all-time derrick carr saints experience right here uh carb like i think he didn't even practice all week he was injured really surprised that he played. We thought we were going to have like Jameis revenge game. And like Carr checked down over and over again.

I found this. Shout out to Rich Rebar. 61% of Carr's completions were behind the line of scrimmage in this game. This was Kamara's first game back as well. He got 13 balls for 33 yards. That's wild. It's really, really hard to do what the saints always do they get in the red zone they settle for field goals and baker uh who i just completely

missed on this year lit him up and made big plays in the passing game they won by margin i'm not sure that i see it like completely different to be honest i'm kind of surprised like i don't love tampa bay but i'm kind of surprised we're not at least at three. The Saints are a little bit more healthy offensively. But yeah, I don't know. I'm surprised we're just at two and a half across the board. Connor, what are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, that was my take here.

First, shout out to Clark for being, I don't know if you were on the Bucs, but I think you were definitely more pro Bucs than we were heading into the season. A thousand percent. Yeah. And I think we have a couple, a thousand percent yeah yeah um and i think we have a couple i was looking through your bets i think we have a couple slight disagreements here because i kind of two and a half i kind of like the bucks here for a lot of the reasons that

newton said and maybe it's taken me until week 17 and it's too late to hop on the bucks bandwagon here because i'm buying high but i just continue to be like amazed every week uh you know by what they were able to do um and so also too this is what i love about you know following some smart people on twitter is like i think it was cleve ta tweeted this out about like the saints have played literally the most pathetic group of offenses like of the entire season they played the rams who scored 30 detroit scored 33 jag scored 31 colt scored 27 the bucks scored 26 those are the best offices they played like literally all year and like i mean i don't even consider the bucks to be an awesome offense by any means but i think 27, the Bucs score 26. Those are the best offices they've played like literally all year. And like, I mean,

I don't even consider the Bucs to be an awesome offense by any means, but I think that that is noteworthy to say the least. So if Tampa Bay has any reasonable amount of success, I have just very little faith in New Orleans here, even with Tampa Bay's defense being beat up, you know, they continue to find a way for the most part. So I think two and a half, and again, I'm not like ecstatic. It's not my favorite bet of the week,

but I think that's certainly a lean. I put a little bit of money on it. This is another spot, Clark, where kudos to you with your early action. You got the Saints at plus three and you're kind of looking over your handicap. I feel like that was, you know, as I would think too,

the three is pretty important here. Yeah, definitely. I'm not as eager to play the plus two and a half. I still like the Saints. You know, I make it closer to about Tampa Bay minus one, but that's not really a bet that I love to make where I'm getting the one and the two on a team that, frankly, if it is a tight game, like, you know, I might lean Bucs because they have a better passing attack. So who's going to deliver in the clutch? Baker Mayfield or Derek Carr, probably Mayfield.

But I think a good way to approach it now that it's at two and a half is to tease the Saints up if you have a good partner for that. There's one later in the show I'll talk about. So I still want to be on the Saints in some form, but I think maybe teasing has more value than playing the spread. Could also play the money line. I think the Saints are pretty much just a mediocre team. They are the Rorschach test of the spread. Could also play the money line. I think the Saints are pretty much just a mediocre team. They are the Rorschach test of the NFL. Like, if you're a good team, you should beat the Saints.

If you're a bad team, you should lose to the Saints. And I think the Bucs are pretty similar. Now, how you view this game depends a lot on how much weight you put into recency, right? Because if you take season-long stuff, the Bucs and Saints are pretty much equal. But the Bucs, arguably best two offensive performances have come in the last two weeks. So if that is signal, you know, if this is a team that's getting hot at the right time, they're putting things together, Baker Mayfield's confidence level is high, he's, you know, finally kind of getting it, then I think you could make the case for the Bucs at two and a half, minus two and a half. But if you think it's just, you know, random variants,

teams have good games and bad games, and they just happen to have their two best games in the last two weeks, then I think the Saints are the right side. I tend to lean more into that second category. If there's not something structurally that they're doing differently, if there's not some kind of change that has happened, I tend to just think, well, it's probably just outliers. So that's why I'm comfortable playing the Saints, but it's not a massive position. It's a shame we didn't record this yesterday. I think we probably still could have got New Orleans plus three yesterday,

but now it is a two and a half. Yeah, I lean teaser instead of spread, but this is a huge, huge game for the Saints. And I think Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield are pretty similar in my opinion, but the difference is you're getting Baker Mayfield at the peak of his value right now. And Derek Carr at the, at the absolute, I don't know what the opposite of peak is Zenith or Zenith the high, anyway, whatever the, the bottom, the bottom of the,

of the Derek Carr experience. And I think they're actually pretty similar in terms of how good of a quarterback they are. So if there's any market value, it's on the saints in my opinion, even at two and a half. I know the game script kind of forced them into it last week against the Rams because they got down pretty big early, but like the game script in the first meeting against the Bucks forced them into that too. And they didn't take shots on the field. I was encouraged to see Carr stretch the field a little bit last week. My favorite play currently, like I like,

I lean Tampa two and a half. I'm kind of with you. I'd be throwing my hands up if we were still at saints plus, you know, or Tampa minus three, but like 42 and a half in a spot, like, again, like the problem is,

is that I need the saints to all of a sudden convert in the red zone. Just something they just have not done all season long. They're like a bottom five red zone offense. But I think they're going to be able to make plays down the field. Olave is kind of eating. He's looking good. Rashid Jahid is playing well and seeing increased opportunity. So those things kind of go well.

And the way that Jahid wins has been deep down the field. So I don't know. I think Florida at this time of year, we don't have any weather concerns. It looks pretty decent. 42 and a half, probably a lean to the over any thoughts there connor um yeah i mean i don't mind it i i'm already feeling i'm going on a limb backing baker here you know it's kind of like one of those things that just feels wrong to me but hey but the back of the panthers fell wrong last week and we were absolutely on the money there so you know it's

one of those things that i've kind of been learning over the last year or two especially with clark coming on board where i look at some of these bets and i'm like holy that's disgusting but there's definitely value there and they win so you know it's one of those things i think winning is more important than my you know initial knee-jerk reaction there yeah i mean on paper a baker car over feels pretty gross but you have to kind of separate that. And perhaps even more importantly, a Dennis Allen, Todd Bowles coached battle. Don't say that. I do think the Saints have dealt with a ton of offensive injuries this year

that people just kind of gloss over. Like they gloss over the games where Derek Carr had to sit the second half because he was injured in game, coming off injury. There were games where they were missing to sit the second half because he was injured in game coming off injury there were games where they were missing multiple offensive linemen cluster injuries at offensive line there were games where they were missing cluster injuries at wide receiver without Olave and Shahid and then you know it took several weeks for Shahid to get back and then Olave was out and I think they're finally somewhat healthy on offense I mean they'll never have Michael Thomas but they the numbers for the

saints are depressed by injuries that people don't seem to be factoring in. And I think, um, this is the healthiest they've been. They came out of that Thursday night game healthy. They've had 10 days to get ready for this one. So I do think we see a, a sort of top level performance from the saints offense. I just have some questions about what that top level performance is for this offense. Yeah. A hundred percent fair. All right. Game of the week here on the field, Miami at Baltimore,

the results here kind of touched on a little bit, a massively shape, a bunch of situations moving forward for the game. Ravens juice three of most shops. Fan duel has Ravens minus three and a half. It is minus one Oh two. It's a bit off market. We're a bit off Ravens minus 3.5. It is minus 102. It's a bit off market. They're a bit off market on the total as well at 46.5.

Everyone else basically at 47. Scenarios here. Baltimore clinches the top seed in the AFC with a win. A loss drops the Ravens to number two behind Miami. And again, a win for Miami locks up the AFC East title. It means they'd enter the week 18 battle against Buffalo. As front runners, they'll still need to win that game. So it wouldn't be like a rest scenario because they would need to win to solidify the number one seed,

even though the division is locked up. A loss here though for Miami paired with a Bills win over the Patriots means that the week 18 game is for the AFC East Crown. And we know in that spot, obviously, Baltimore wins the top seed in the East. Here's a crazy but not impossible scenario. If the Ravens lose here to the Dolphins, then they lose in Week 18 to the Steelers. Something that they've already done this season. Back in Week 5, 17-10, they were coming off of like a big win 28 to 3 they beat the browns uh they were healthy they it was no like no frills to that game they just lost the

steelers so division games they are close they could lose to week in week 18 to the steelers again in this scenario uh the bills beat miami in week 18 the Browns are your number one seed in the AFC if they win out against the Jets and Bengals, which is absolutely wild. Not, like, completely unheard of. I think there's, you know, these games are, you know, I think the Ravens are a solid three-and-a-half-point favorite here. I'd be interested to see what would happen, you know, with the Steelers game. They'd be a solid favorite in that game that they would need to win.

Don't tell me that the Steelers win games and lose games're not supposed to, and win games they're not supposed to. That is kind of the MO of the Mike Tomlin era Steelers. That game would be very, very interesting, but that would be a wild scenario that this Browns team with Flacco at quarterback, their fourth quarterback, has a chance in week 17 to be the number one seed. So again, MVP race, very much in play. Coach of the year, I think So again, MVP race, very much in play. Coach of the year, I think very much impacted by some stuff that happens here. Comeback player of the year, as we touched on. Defensive player of the year.

Like a lot of stuff happens with the results of this game. Injury reports are kind of wonky on both sides, Clark. What are your thoughts on Ravens-Dolphins? Yeah, that's a lot to think about. I'm probably rooting for Ravens here with all my Bills exposure. It would also be nice to have the Ravens lock up the division win for a division ticket I have.

But in this matchup, I'm pretty much right on market on the spread between three and three and a half I think is right. I wasn't particularly impressed with the Ravens last week. I thought that they benefited from a lot of variance and capitalized like a good team should. But they're not so good that they benefited from a lot of variance and capitalized like a good team should. But they're not so good that they should be favored against the 49ers if they rematched. So I think they're the right side at home. But I have some questions about how the offense will perform against this Dolphins defense, which has been playing absolutely lights out for several weeks now.

And I think it's been one of those things that I've been hesitant to really buy into because a lot of it came against bad quarterbacks. And so when a defense improves and it's against bad quarterbacks, it's oftentimes just, well, yeah, they ran into some good matchups, but they've been keeping it up against some good offenses. They played really well defensively

against Dallas last week. And I think the idea that it took Vic Fangio several weeks to get the defense together, I think both of you guys talked about this early on in the season, like give it time, let the defense get together. They are now. You know, Jalen Ramsey is healthy and everything's clicking. And one of the things that they do well, which is a typical Vic Fangio staple, is they reduce

explosive plays. They're actually, according to a tweet by Arjun Menon, they're the number one defense at limiting explosive plays, combined're actually, according to a tweet by Arjun Menon, they're the number one defense at limiting explosive plays combined running and passing. And the Ravens offense has been a little bit reliant on those explosive plays. Like they haven't been particularly consistent outside of when they're running with Keaton Mitchell, who's hurt. And, you know, sometimes Gus Edwards, but, but really it's been, you know, Lamar Jackson making, taking shots downfield and capitalizing against blown coverages. I don't think the Dolphins are going to blow any coverages here for the Ravens.

I think the Ravens are going to have to earn it. And this is a tough, tough test for the Ravens offense. On the other side of the ball, though, I'm not convinced that the Dolphins are really going to be able to capitalize against the Ravens defense because they're another offense that is built around scheme, built around the talent of the players and pressing the right buttons. Having a quarterback that knows where to throw the ball, puts it on in his players' hands where the players can make plays. Those types of offenses tend to be more fragile to the quality of defenses that they're playing. We saw that last week with San Francisco. And I think we kind of see the same thing here with Miami against Baltimore. Adding to that, Jalen Waddle suffered

a high ankle sprain. He may not play. If he does play, I doubt he'll be 100%. So this is kind of a spot where I think both defenses might struggle and it might end up being kind of a tighter, uglier game. So I'm on the under 47. I think this is a lower scoring game than people might anticipate given the quality of these offenses. And as far as the spread goes, I think it's Ravens by three, Ravens by four. That's the right range. So I'm not looking to find value there just before we went live we're going to

report that waddle will be out um and we have robbie chosen in concussion protocol um again we're like hey he's been like in the mix um and would be impact like in the mix especially with waddle out so like some cluster injuries some cluster injuries the offensive line for miami injuries the injury report on the raven side isn't really pretty either connor but i mean probably like in the mix, especially with Waddle Out. So like some cluster injuries, some cluster injuries, the offensive line for Miami. Injuries, the injury report on the Raven side isn't really pretty either, Connor. But I mean, probably most of those guys play. Kyle Hamilton, though, I think is a legit game time decision, question mark, didn't practice today

when he was out there for the media. The reports were that he didn't participate in even like walking around and moving around. He didn't look good. Left early in that game against San Francisco, not before making a massive imprint in that game. But again, like, you know, left early, knee injury, not great. So what are your thoughts on this one?

Yeah, I agree with a lot of what Clark said. I do think that Tyreek is a unique weapon that, like, hasn't really, you know, has something that Baltimore hasn't really faced. And so although a lot of Tua and the offensive success is fueled by scheme and where Mike Nathaniel is putting people, the loss of Waddle obviously hurts. I think having Tyreek should give some level of hope, especially for this offense, for the passing game here. And as you mentioned, I guess my biggest notes were the Dolphins' defense proved

last week they're legit. They keep the ball in front of them. And I think having Lamar work methodically downfield, especially against a lot of zone defense, is not something that I would be thrilled to back, to be honest. So, you know, I think for me at three and a half, I kind of like the Dolphins. But, you know, I would probably also lean towards the under because I don't think they're going to have like a ton of offensive success.

I just think it's going to be a really close game. And at three and a half, that makes me lean towards Miami. Yeah, I think Clark's handicap there was fantastic. I like the under there too. You know, I think that Miami's done a good job, like making up for injuries as well. Like they, you know, didn't have Ramsey for part of the year. And, you know, Jalen Phillips goes out,

but they still are like third in pressure rate. They're still like, you know, generating a ton of pressure. Javon Holland's impactful at safety. He's been out for a little while. He might be back. They're still just kind of getting it done. I mean, we've seen that kind of sticky against better quality talent too.

And I agree. Like, I was very much in on the Niners last week. I still think the Niners are the best team in football. I was very, very surprised at the results. You know, I think coming on here and like saying it was tip pass variants and stuff like that would make me look like a donkey. I think it the case though i think there was a lot of that uh but look they put purdy in positions for him to be uncomfortable the ravens deserve a ton of credit for what they

did to be able to get their hands on the ball and tip the ball and do those things because even when like purdy was kept clean he didn't look really comfortable so kudos to that ravens defense who again another one of my misses this year i was really concerned about some of the talent there in the back end. Mike McDonald has been fantastic, so he deserves a ton of credit. I can imagine they could find a scheme that could slow down, again, some injuries at the backfield too. No waddle. I would lean Miami, but, man, I wish they were a little bit more healthy here.

So I think my favorite play on the board on this game would be the under game total at 47. So again, impactful game. Should be a very good one and very entertaining to watch. All right, next, Cincinnati is on the road in Kansas City. This game was supposed to be the anchor of the Week 17 slate. No Joe Burrow, scuffling Chiefs squad, not quite as sexy as the schedule makers had hoped.

Kansas City, 7.5, look at market. Reopened at 7, has held there steady all week. borough scuffling chief squad not quite as sexy as the schedule makers had hoped uh since kansas city seven and a half and look at market reopened at seven has held their steady all week um the under at 44 and a half took a bit of money today which makes a ton of sense to me it was going to be what i talked about today um when we came on but now we're like 44 on fanduel 43 and a half and a lot of other spots um just seems only too many points is again considering what happened last week the chiefs defense really stood out continue to be uh you know borderline dominant force uh didn't allow a completion for the final three quarters of the game insane uh run out for that game to go the way it did but uh yeah the chiefs defense continues to be steady while we know there's just a lot of snuggles on the offensive side of the ball

bangles aren't dead uh in terms of the playoffs the loss last week against the steelers really hurts their playoff chances though they got to win out they need some help as well even that might not be enough in terms of like all the contenders that are still around at the bottom of the afc playoff picture uh the bangles have the worst conference record so they're pretty much dead chiefs are basically locked into the three seed in the afc though they haven't wrapped up the division which is wild to say um again in that raiders game kind of kept things alive there it's probably the worst chiefs mahomes performance since he's entered the league feels like a great bounce back spot like we've been targeting teams offensively against the

bangles all season because the defenses have been really bad. Where are we at, Clark? Are we moving too slow off our progress with the Chiefs? What's going on here? I do think that the panic – oh, my goodness. What's happening? Sorry. Can you guys hear me? Yeah. Yeah.

My wife called me, and it, like, went to my computer, which is annoying. So I do think that the panic alarm needs to be sounding for chiefs uh as a chiefs fan that every year the chiefs have struggled at one point or another and every year they've kind of gotten it together when it really mattered and this week felt like that moment it was like okay like this is they need this win to kind of like make keep them in the race for the one seed and wrap up the division. And they had chance after chance after chance and couldn't deliver. And it wasn't fluke.

It wasn't like, oh, well, Mahomes threw to Kelsey for a first down in Las Vegas territory and he fumbled. And so obviously that changed the game. They legitimately could not get the yards. It wasn't missed penalties. It wasn't anything except an inept offense. And Mahomes was pressing. He was not trusting his receivers. When he did throw quick, the receivers weren't in the right place.

And so then the next play, he wouldn't throw quick and he would try to scramble around and make a play. And it just wasn't working. And so I think this is officially panic time for the Chiefs. Now, the Bengals defense, we've talked for weeks about how they suck. And this could be a really good landing spot for the Chiefs to kind of get back on track. But even a big win here doesn't assuage all the concerns we have about this. The Chiefs could win both these final regular season games and not really have any confidence going into the playoffs. So I do think there's a lot to be concerned about. You still have Mahomes, you

still have Andy Reid. You can never count them out, especially with Kelsey and the way the defense is playing. But this isn't a spot where I'm looking to back the Chiefs on a bounce back because they're inevitably going to get it because they're laying seven to a somewhat decent team. Like the Bengals offense has been playing well with Browning outside of the two games against the Steelers. And they are all about quick passes,

which I think can offset some of the things the Chiefs do well in terms of getting pressure. But my numbers say the Chiefs should be favored by at least seven, if not more. But I don't love laying big numbers with the Chiefs. I've never throughout my home's tenure. They're just never that trustworthy to put away teams. They never seem to play above their expectations

when they're playing inferior competition. And they don't tend to run above their expectations when they're playing inferior competition, and they don't tend to run up the score when they have a lead. So I prefer, this is my teaser leg that I would pair with the Saints. I would bring the Chiefs down to one. And I think this is just a game where the Chiefs need to establish themselves, but I just don't know whether that's going to happen or not. And it's not something that I want to bet on to cover the spread. Great use of a swage there. We don't get that one a lot. So Connor, what are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, I think I'm willing to take the Chiefs at seven. I did take a little piece here because I mean, this Bengals defense has been so bad. We talked about the Raiders defense, you know, privately that like they've been playing so much better under Antonio Pierce. And like,

I totally agree with your analysis. The Chiefs offense, definitely there are concerns about at this point. I mean, also it hurts having MVS out there playing a ton. I mean, he's legit one of the worst receivers in the league. It's just unbelievable how often he's in the wrong place, running the wrong routes, dropping balls, not getting open, not finishing his routes. It's like every little thing he could do wrong, he's doing wrong consistently. And so I don't know, honestly, I would cut him if I was the chief, but they don't, they need bodies.

Like they need, they need guys because everyone else is hurt. So that being said, I think, you know, Rasheed Rice takes, you know, continues to grow throughout his rookie season. Kelsey hopefully looks a little better. Justin Watson plays a bigger role I think going forward too. But this offense is just, we've seen far, far worse offenses put together, you know, plenty of points on this defense. We just watched the Steelers light them up, you know,

with Mason Rudolph, the quarterback, you know, gunning the ball down the field. And obviously there was some positive variance there as well with, you know, turnovers. But still, it's like there was plenty of, you know, bombs that were happening there too. So I think in this spot, like, I'm willing to take Kansas City offensively. I think that they're going to score plenty.

And then defensively, as you mentioned, I think that Cincinnati showed a little bit, finally their first flaw with Jake Browning. I think everyone was really excited about him, and he's played pretty well for a while. And now at this point, I have a lot less faith in him. I think there's a little bit more variance than what we were seeing so far. So I like the Chiefs here at seven, but I understand. I think there's a little bit more variance than what we were seeing so far. I like the Chiefs here at seven, but I understand the teaser leg is fine too, but I also think

the adults are fine. I think they could win by 30 in this scenario as well, even though that's not generally been their MO. I just have a massive advantage here for this offense against the defense. Yeah, the way I played it, I played Bengals team total under 18 and a half, which is on the right side of a key number there.

I just think, like you said, Connor, the blooms off the rose a little bit on the Jake Browning stuff. You know, it looks like Jamar Chase is practicing today. I don't know what to make of that, you know, if there's anything there. But I just think we're – this Chiefs defense, I think, is legit. It's kind of sad. Like, I would love to see what we have in the Niners on the NFC side, and if we were to have a typical Mahomes KC with this defense,

gosh, I would love to see that Super Bowl play itself out. We just don't have that Chiefs offense this year. And I think it's, again, Week 17. We've all kind of felt that, but I don't think there's anything, to Clark's point, we've had these little hiccups periodically throughout this tenure of Mahomes and Reed together. I don't think we're turning the corner and seeing a new level of what this Chiefs offense is going to be.

This is kind of who they are. They're going to have to have some upper percentile outcomes and hope that the defense remains elite for them to be in the mix in terms of where they're going to be in the AFC with some of these other offenses. So, yeah, I think the Bengals team total would be my favorite look, but I don't hate the, uh,

I don't hate the teaser leg at all. Not, not much. Uh, yeah, I just don't think Jay Brown can get it done here. One thing that concerns me is, uh,

is Pacheco even going to play like the, the Bengals. Yeah. The Bengals defense is so, so weak upfront. Like what the Steelers did was basically just run it down the middle until they had to stack the line and then chuck a couple balls over the top against you know no safeties I don't know that the Chiefs can do that with Clyde Edwards-Elair running the ball uh the way

the offensive line is playing so I think that's that's my concern from a you know big Chiefs win standpoint is how are they running the ball like consistently in this one my homes keepers yeah yeah i think he's gonna throw throw a bunch to be honest that's uh that at least that's my read on this game is they're just gonna like throw in every short yard situation and probably still some success running with clyde orzala but i think he also kind of sucks so um i don't know but i don't know if they really need to be good so we'll see i still expect to have success but it won't be quite as easy as what the Steelers may look like. Just running the ball.

Like you said. All right. The week 17 capper on Sunday night, we have green Bay on the road in Minnesota. Vikings were about a two point home favorite here an hour or so ago. And then we just learned that the Vikings are going to start rookie Jaron Hall. He started one other game this season.

It was the Falcons left early in the first quarter with a concussion. That was the start of the Josh Dobb era. Josh Dobbs had like just got there. That was the, you know, just miraculous how this guy had been here for 24 hours and, you know, taking this team to victory. I think that has a lot to do with the Falcons as well. But yeah, I remember that game quite differently as someone who had jaron halls rushing over uh was trending very well through a quarter but uh yeah you should see what happened with the line movement here it's all over the

place we basically still have some like pro minnesota stuff like fan duel uh minus one and a half um we're down to like a pick them on caesar so we're all over the place depending if what your lean is a total is dropped as well we were 46 and a half now we're like 44 44 and a half minnesota also dealing with cluster injuries uh among the pass catching core obviously we have justin jefferson back but tj hawkinson's down we don't know what's going on with jordan addison's got an ankle sprain um all sorts of stuff going on with green bay as well uh You know, Jair Alexander is suspended. We got injuries to their pass catching core. Both teams, seven and eight.

Loser leaves town very much out of the playoff picture. And the winner has a better than 50% shot to make the playoffs. In Minnesota, actually, if they win, they play the Lions next week. The Lions, and I don't know. I don't know if we're going to have a spot where Dan Campbell, you know, throws the towel in for any game. But in that game, like there's really nothing for the Lions to play for. That becomes very interesting for Minnesota's playoff chances.

But as we are now, basically a pick-em here, Connor, what are your thoughts on Packers and Vikings? Yeah, I was, so I, you know, try and do all my analysis before looking at the Lions. And I was shocked to see a 46-point total in this game, you know. And so I took that. We're looking at 44 now. I kind of still like the under.

I don't know. I mean, this is, to me, still, you know, a couple points too high here. It's not necessarily, you know, Jared Hall slander. I think it's mostly to do with how good this Vikings defense looked against this Packers, you know, offense last time. Like this game was 24 to three until a score with like two minutes left where, you know, it was basically as a garbage time. A lot of what we see Minnesota do, which is, you know, blitz a ton, kind of like confused quarterbacks and Jordan loves splits against the blitz

continuing to be like, you know, not very good. So it's like one of those things where he didn't look good last time. I know since then, he obviously had a really good stretch where he looked fantastic but I just don't know if he played this kind of defense that has far far outperformed expectations uh you know at least heading into the year and has played you know pretty well I think and so I have a lot of you know concern about this Packers offense consistently moving the ball and then I have you know plenty of concern against about Jaron Hall moving the ball offensively as

well. So it's like, I had concerns all over. Like, I don't really love either team to eclipse 20 points here. Uh, and so, you know,

I think still a 44, I would lean towards the under, um, but yeah, I'm, I'm curious, maybe, maybe you guys provide a counter argument as to why,

you know, you think the over is good spot here. Yeah. Joe Barry. Yeah, that's fair. He's a shitty, shitty coach. I mean, it's gotten worse and worse, and I think the players have completely given up on him.

Like this backers defense made Bryce Young look like an all-star last week. They also made Tommy DeVito look like an NFL quarterback in recent weeks. So the idea of in what situation could a backup rookie quarterback come in and succeed? It's one where you have an offensive-minded coach that's shown he can scheme success, a reliable number one option that he can pepper with targets in Justin Jefferson,

and a defense that doesn't have a pulse. The Packers might be the worst defense in the NFL. They're grading that way in recent weeks, at least trending for me. So this is a spot at home on Monday Night Football where kind of like expectations are low. I mean, like Vikings aren't relying. They're not saying, oh yes, now we got Jaron Hall.

He's going to take us to the playoffs. They're just kind of like, oh, that'd be fun. Like if Jaron Hall turns out to be good. So this is like the exact situation for a guy like that to succeed. I don't know that I'm going to bet it because I have such a busy card already. And I just have no idea who Jaron Hall is. He could be terrible.

So it's not typically a spot I want to get too heavily involved in. I also have some, some Packers over seven and a half wins that I would love to see get home this week with a, with a win, but can't make decisions based on futures. But this is, this is a game where my numbers, I have to downgrade the Vikings pretty significantly to find value on the Packers at a pick'em. So it's definitely Vikings or pass, and it's probably a pass just because of uncertainty. But the injuries to Minnesota also don't help. TJ Hawkinson, like you said, Addison may not play. DJ Wanham on defense matters matters he's out uh Byron Murphy didn't play

last week it's a defense that always lacked talent but they've been overcoming it with scheme and that can only go so far you lose enough guys and the scheme it like you know a guy doesn't follow his assignment because he's not been in there all year and and it can really break down especially with a quarterback that can punish defensive mistakes the way Jordan Love can um that's like the one thing he's really good at is oh that guy's open I can chuck it to him 40 yards downfield so uh it's gonna be a fun game I'm excited about it um but I doubt that I'll have anything significant on this one the problem is like the chuck it to him guys might be out too for the Packers it's just such a weird you know it's a hard game to to handicap when we don't know some of those finer

details so I think the Vikings are an interesting team like I think that they're a you know it's a hard game to to handicap when we don't know some of those finer details so i think that vikings are an interesting team like i think that they're a you know we in our sphere of what we talk about a lot you get these like you know pro analytical teams like i think that the vikings have shifted in terms of like who kevin o'connell is um you know their general manager like there's i think they know who they are i think they know what their expectations were coming into the season it was kind of like a let's see what happens with kurt kind of season anyway and i think kurt goes down it's like well let's just we're gonna figure it out and fight and compete and we'll get some of the young kids involved

and the defense is really young you know a lot of like pass catchers that are young um so i do think like the jaron hall thing is just like hey look we know what nick mullins kind of is uh we've seen i think we maybe squeezed all the juice that's there in uh josh dobbs like let's get jaron hall a ride let's see what's what's there we only got like you know 10 snaps last time let's see if we can get something that's a little more interesting teams like have had a lot of success with russian quarterbacks against the packers this season too last season as well um even though like last year what they did in terms of like man and zone splits is very different teams are still running all over the packers um with their quarterback so i just think give them

a very very different look or like have schemed up uh plays that give these little wrinkles that i think are very very different um find times that isolate jjeff one-on-one take your shots when it happens and just kind of let's see what happened i think it'll be uh i think an interesting football game to watch in terms of how this game could play out with all the stuff that flores deserves credit for doing too so um i mean connor side here on the under still think as is is probably the best play on the board but uh not a play that i'm rushing out 46 grabbing that early connor was probably a great look this is uh such a funny year because we've had little pockets of quarterback stardom uh you know with tommy devito for like a couple weeks and then getting benched and then you know the pastor not josh

dobbs like his whole story and like you know they're like awesome and then they play just like absolutely runlessly once or twice like okay this guy's who we thought he was never mind and then you know goes back i don't i don't remember a year where we see this happen multiple times usually once a year but it's uh it's always fun it happens more than you think like if when you start going back and looking at this i did this in the off season i was like you know what happens when stoner quarterbacks go down it's it's a pattern man i mean the the backup you know provides that initial lift and then teams get tape on him and learn his tendencies, and then he doesn't have a second gear, and that's

why they're a backup to begin with. It's happened more this year than it has in previous years, for sure, but it's not unusual. Just more teams getting QB4 than normal, it feels like, right? Yeah, so if the Vikings

make the playoffs and they make it to the Super Bowl, we could have a Browns-Vikings make the playoffs and and they make it a super bowl we could have a browns vikings super bowl between two teams starting their fourth quarterback stefanski bowl you know no no apologies in advance to your family if that's the case because i will be belligerently drunk at your house watching the super bowl uh i mean the only way to watch that you have to watch it no matter what but yeah yeah, it's a night too, right? We have the Jets and Browns, and both those teams are starting their fourth quarterback this season.

I mean, I know Rodgers only played a handful of snaps, but it was the starting quarterback to start the year. So we, you know, had just a wild, wild, wild ride. So yeah, it's crazy. And like I talked about the Browns thing, the Browns having an outside shot at the number one seed. They gave multiple starts to P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson this year, and they are 10-5, and it's just kind of nuts.

It's nuts. So what else is on the board? Anything else that caught your guys' attention? The only one that I had that I wanted to talk about this kind of move today, I thought that the Rams at four and a half was just too short. I thought that should have been a little bit of a bigger number.

And now that's kind of moved out to five and a half, six in most spots. Clark, anything that's caught your eye that's out there that we didn't touch on? No, I'm just kind of looking at the board. Connor, you go first. And if I see something that's still there, I'll talk about it.

Yeah. All right. I kind of disagree with Clark on this one. I know he played some Jags. I'm willing to go back to the well of my Panthers. I don't know. I was really, really skeptical of Trevor Lawrence. I think he's going to try and play again.

I mean, this guy is an absolute warrior. But at this point, like, he's just dealing with so many different injuries and things like I just, I don't know. I'm pretty worried about that. And like, you know, the Panthers showed life last week offensively. Maybe that was Joe or, you know, Joe Barry led with the Packers playing so poorly defensively. Like I think it could have been a variety of things, but, you know, I still believe in the defense somewhat, you know, to some extent. And I think that in this spot, like Jags haven't really run the ball all that well all season. Like I think plus what we're looking at six and a half, I think it was now we're looking at six is still interesting there.

But you know, again, it's, it's one of those things that's like super gross, but you know, in my mind makes sense. So I played it for a little bit. Yeah, the Jaguars defensively have been very – they've had a dichotomy between playing good offenses and bad offenses where they've really crushed some bad offenses and gotten crushed by good offenses. And so I tend to think this is a spot where the Panthers go on the road. They have one of the worst offenses in the league.

I think the Jaguars really take care of the business on that side of the ball. And then that puts so little pressure on the offensive side that I think the number six is probably even a little low. But I think probably out of the current prices, I still like the Washingtonhington commanders getting 13 uh in some spots um the the upgrade to jacoby brissett is real in my opinion uh watching those games it was like the whole offense came to life as soon as brissett entered the game and it wasn't you know sometimes that happens because it's like oh well the defense is playing soft coverage and they come in and they just kind of dunk it over the middle for eight yards time and time again. And it's like, well, sure, it's easy to go 17 for 20 for 150 yards against Prevent.

But that wasn't what I saw. What I saw was Sam Howell being slow to make decisions and not hitting receivers when they're open. And then Brissette came in and just got rid of the ball quickly. It was like, he drops back and he throws the ball with some velocity and he's got receivers. Washington has receivers that can get open.

So I think it was a material change in offense when he entered and also against the jets, it wasn't garbage time. I mean, they came back and took the lead in that game with Jacoby Brissette at quarterback against a very good defense. So even though the Niners are very good defense, they came out of that game against Baltimore banged up.

I think this is a materially better Washington team, especially on offense with Jacoby Brissett. And while the defense has real struggles in the secondary, I think if the Niners have the lead, which I expect, it's not really, you don't really see teams run up the score 20, 30 points by, you know, continuing to throw deep. You see them trying to establish a ground game where I think Washington can actually stop the Niners. So I think the spread's just a little big for a team that is alive here. That's gross, but I understand the process there.

Well, also laying 13 is gross too, right? So it's just one of those games. Like for me, oftentimes I look at those and I'm like, well'm like well i just you know i can't convince myself either way because i definitely wouldn't want to be watching that game with a with a commander's tickets um and i definitely don't want to be uh cheering for an nfl team to you know win by 14 points um so yeah i get it you make a good point there so uh yeah that's kind of it for me. I mean, interesting, interesting week. I think there's just a lot of scenarios where, you know, it makes the week 18 board. There are no look at lines. So like,

you're trying to speculate on what's going to happen. Like there's really nothing out there to shape the market ahead of time where we typically have, you know, these adjustments off of the look aheads that typically make sense. And we don't really have that for week 18. So it becomes very, very interesting. So we're going to be here next week. We'll do our best to try to unpack it and figure it out again. Subscribe, rate, review before you leave, thumbs up, comments, all those things.

I misspoke earlier. We'll be here at 1 Eastern, noon central for Prop Drop tomorrow. Myself, Connor, high slop for the prop show. So again, subscribe wherever you're listening. That way you won't miss that show and come back and check us out. So for Clark and

Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time. Thanks, everyone. you