Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 18 NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: January 3, 2024

Unleash your betting potential with our ULTIMATE Week 18 NFL BETTING GUIDE! Dive into expert insights on the best BETS, latest Odds, and accurate Predictions for an exciting NFL Week 18. Featuring a special focus on the Miami Dolphins, this is your go-to source for smart, informed NFL betting picks and strategies. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the game, get ready to amplify your NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on valuable tips and analysis.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  / sharpclarkenfl  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  

Hello and good morning. Welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends a little earlier than normal but everyone looks like they had their coffee ready to go we're going to talk about sides and totals here in the best matchups the most viable matchups here for the week 18 nfl slate joining me here as always conor allen good morning good morning yeah i got my coffee right next to me still live in mexico on my you know one of my 50 vacations that I take each year. You know, I like to make sure that I take 50 one-week vacations at least.

You know, don't tell Reed and HR, but, you know, it's a good life, right? I mean, it might sound like I'm begrudging you. I'm just, I'm jealous. I mean, I wish there was a better word i wish there was a different emotion i'm just uh i'm jealous that you get multiple weeks in mexico every year and it's all good but i don't i love you for it i know you uh that's your mom's down there people don't know so you get to see family it's a big family time so it's not just you know just debauchery by the you know by the beach with uh margaritas it's that too uh because your mom can get down but uh yeah you know it's family timeuchery by the, you know, by the beach with margaritas. It's that too.

Cause your mom can get down, but yeah, you know, it's family time. It's Christmas, the holidays. Yeah. A hundred percent. Plus I mean, I just had to move away from my window because there's like a 9am pool jazzercise class going on where they're blasting music. So I'm like, I'm like, what do I do? Like, it's like two minutes until we're starting the show and there's, you know, like feel like a woman blasting out here and there's like all the grannies are, you know, jazzing on the pool. So, uh, yeah, I'm now in the kitchen with my, my lovely little pear painting over here and you know, some fruit salad. So. Well, let's buzz through week 18 so we can get you down there. I don't want you to miss the Shania Twain, uh, jazzercise that's going on down there. It sounds

like a good time. We also have to get this gentleman to the slopes uh sharp clark what's going on buddy yeah i appreciate you doing this early morning for me i'm an early riser as it as it stands and now i get to go to the mountains early so i appreciate it love it absolutely love it i will be sitting here at my desk all day while clark is and Connor is jazz reciting. So, hey, could be worse. So I still love what we do here. A little bit earlier, but we're again, week 18. We're going to still be here every Wednesday.

4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. You can find the podcast in your feed Wednesday evenings as well. Subscribe so you don't miss a show. This is free content. So supporting it with thumbs up, likes, subscribing, all that goes a long way in helping us do the things we want to do here at 4 for 4 We also have two shows, if you are just checking us out by, you know, hey, this is early and you don't typically see us and know that this even exists We do a prop show on Fridays as well, Friday afternoons, 3pm Eastern

Same channel here, that's myself, Connor, and John Hyslop from Odds Jam Again, every Friday, and we'll continue to roll that through the Super Bowl as well. So if you want to get all the official plays, access to everything that we do at 444, you want to bet MMA or NBA, all the stuff that we have going on, super cheap right now to check us out for a limited time, only through the end of February,

but for a limited amount of money, $19.99. If you head over to 444.com slash plans, you can check us out. For next season, that gets you access to everything that we do. So if you grind DFS, high stakes, redraft, best ball, you want articles, tools, rankings, projections, the betting sub gets you access to everything at 444. So even if you are a fantasy player still, one-stop shop, you can get it all there.

Again, head over to four for four.com slash plants all right we know it's a unique week touched on a little bit you know it's for me it's a little bit lighter of a week in terms of volume like pre-kick i guess there are edges to be had on there are news that comes out slowly from each team if you kind of have your ear to the grindstone here and you're looking for those edges i think there are some live betting opportunities that come up too, because like books might be a little bit reluctant to do some stuff. And we know we've had some discussions in like the props discussion and the incentive discussion has been a,

an interesting one. And I think there's been some interesting conversations around it. Connor put that out there. You know, I'll let you touch on that real quick to Connor and your, what your point was. I think they, so if you didn't see that, people tweeting about the incentives that people need

in order to hit their props. This is prop specific, but there are some team related ones tied into it. It's like super, like, first of all, it sucks because it's like would drain any potential market equity or availability for us, but also super irresponsible to just put out like blind plays without prices attached to them and just add people thinking that that's the right way to go without knowing like if there's a price, if something's plus 200 or something's minus 160,

if you will just blindly think that I need to bet it either way is like super irresponsible, regardless of whatever you think. I feel that that's a correct take, but Connor, if you want to touch on that or tell me about how you kind of approach week 18 because it is very different yeah it is pretty unique there but yeah i mean quick quickly on the incentives thread i i you know putting that stuff out there like people have a really big misconception about this they're like oh well you know the books already knew this the books invest all this time and money like this is publicly available information like those people are just telling on themselves because literally for years, I mean years, this was a goldmine week of lesser known players.

Yeah, sure, the Cooper Cups, Justin Jefferson, they're going to break an NFL record. Everyone knows that. But these lower tier guys that this guy needs 70 more receiving yards or five receptions and he normally has like two or three like the books just aren't weren't really paying attention to that and that was literally years and years before people were tweeting this out before people were writing like massive articles on it leading into the thing so yeah i probably took a little bit too much anger out on sal because other people were going to do it regardless but i mean he's just doing it for engagement

department he there's no prices like you. There's nothing actionable about it. By the time that it gets there, if it does exist, the edge will be swooped up in 0.02 seconds because enough people will see it that the market will be reformed. So the people that are losing are the rec bettors. The people who are defending him the most are the ones that are going to be losing the most. They're the recreational bettors who have no shot of getting any value on the line anyways. So to me, I just thought it was very strange.

Didn't think it was good form there. So he responded, killing it with kindness there. It was like happy holidays, whatever. I can't hate on that. It's all right. He's probably not a bad guy, but definitely a very little respect for kind of what he was doing there on that end. Pozzola had a great tweet if you follow

rob pazola on twitter um you know rob and his team at the hammer do some great work uh yeah it was i think the price sensitivity um is something that's a an important piece that's left out of that where like you said the rec uh betters are going to get hammer on that thinking they need to blindly tail so uh clark how do you approach week 18 i, obviously we want to hone in on it and that's what we're going to do here today is the games that matter where we really know, you know, I guess that we're getting full effort from both teams. They have incentives in terms of like advancing into the playoffs and all those things. How do you approach week 18 comparatively? Week 18 is obviously complicated, but fundamentally I push it the same way as any other week,

which is after processing the prior week's games, I really look at each game individually and focus on what makes each team tick, where my ratings are, what my projected simulations are. And then the only wrinkle for week 18 is basically how do I modify that based on each team's incentive? And I think every team's situation is completely different. And so you can't blanket statement like,

teams that have nothing to play for are going to play worse. Teams that have to win are going to play better. Like that's way too simplistic because, you know, for example, the Ravens and 49ers have nothing to play for. Their seat is locked. But they also don't play for two weeks. And we've seen in the past sometimes when teams, you know, take that rest in week 18 or week 17 previously, and then they have the bye week in the playoffs and then they play in the divisional round, they come out flat, like going 24 days or

whatever without playing footballs is a long time. And we saw that with the Ravens. Last time they had the bye week, they came out and lost 28- to the titans in the divisional round so um that is a more complicated question than something like the browns where they have nothing to play for their seat is locked they play next week right so like even minor injuries that occur in these games like become a factor for next week's games whereas you know the ravens roll out some guys you know guy guy kind of like you know hurts his quad a little bit it's like okay let's take him out of the game and and he'll be good in weeks. It's a different equation when the game is the next week. There's also the element of the Browns can start to think about maybe

the teams they might play, right? They're down to Jacksonville, Houston, Indianapolis, I think. And so once Saturday games are over, it'll be down to Jacksonville or one of those two teams. So they can actually start to think about the next week's game, which to me is just, you know, when you're preparing a full week of NFL, the focus is on the team you're playing that week, the matchups, the, you know, the scout team that you're watching the tape. I just can't imagine the Browns would be investing that much in watching the Bengals, you know, like, what do they get out of this, right? They're going to be playing back up. So there are different situations that you have to account for in each game.

And I think taking a game-by-game approach to each outcome is the way to do it. Yeah. No, that's really well said. So I think be cautious. Get into the Discord. Get into what Clark is doing here this week. You can get that information. I think it is a week where if you're going to be doing this,

I don't think I would be casually jumping into the market i'd want to be really really make sure that i'm centered in terms of understanding what's going on what's that matchup look like and i think clark did a good job summing it up there all right we have two saturday games um first one is pittsburgh at baltimore and clark just touched on it a little bit we basically have like pittsburgh three and a half across the board. Pittsburgh has some scenarios in which they make the playoffs with a win. The Ravens, as we know, is locked up. The number one seed, they do have the bye week.

So as Clark touched on there, you're resting your starters full on out. That didn't work for them last time. How do they adjust? What happens here? Again, we're recording this early on a Wednesday. More information will probably emerge. We'll get a sense of some stuff here. We also just have some of these things where like these are division rivals they don't like each other do like the ravens want to completely lay down to let the steelers

in the playoffs that seems really weird to me um that again there's a lot of like moving parts here but that seems really strange also we have a team that like i don't know the ravens what are they gonna do they're gonna play their backups this is the team that like doesn't lose in the preseason so like they just the depth wise like they're still gonna be competitive so uh three and a half on uh again and at home they're at home they're three point dogs at home so it's a very interesting one to me uh total 36 and a half totals are really uh interesting this week too um clark i'll kick it back to you. Thoughts here on Steelers, Ravens, again, knowing that the Ravens don't have full incentive to go all out, but it feels like they probably do at least

a little bit. Yeah. So I don't know what the Ravens are going to do, but I think this is a situation where this happens a lot as bettors. We think very analytically and process oriented around what teams should do. We're like, oh man, if we were the Bears, like we would have started losing games a long time ago. So we get a better pick and then, you know, use that draft capital. Instead, they went and won a bunch of games, right? NFL teams don't act like we think they should act like, even down to like fourth down decisions.

And so I think what the Ravens should do and what I think a lot of betters think about is they should let Pittsburgh win because if they let Pittsburgh win, there's a chance Buffalo doesn't make the playoffs. And if you're talking about, you know, you've already got the one seed, you're just, you have some control over who is in the AFC playoff field. They should, they should let Pittsburgh win. But I don't think that's how teams operate. And especially against a division rival. Like, I just don't think these players think in terms of,

you know, analytically, like, you know, how, what can happen? I don't think these players think in terms of, you know, analytically, like, you know, what can happen. I don't think that John Harbaugh is, you know, mapping out the playoff field and being like, hmm, maybe we should lose this. I think it's so wired in them to win that I think this is a game where whoever plays on the field for the Ravens, whether it's backups or starters or a combination, they're going to try to win the game. I do think that they're going to play starters for at least part of the game.

And I think the market expects this already because the full game spread is three and a half, four, but the halftime spread is only half a point, which isn't the typical translation when you're talking about full game versus half game. They've already adjusted it to where betters expect Baltimore to be better in the first half than they are in the full game. And I think that's justified because I think that's what's going to happen. They're going to run their starters out for a few series, you know, get them those game reps, keep in the game schedule flow so they only have one bye week before their next game, but don't want to overexpose them to injury, especially a player like Lamar Jackson. So I think this is a game where even if the Steelers don't come out

hot to start with, I think they're going to be fighting to the end, whereas the Ravens might be kind of letting up. So I think if you're attacking the Ravens, even at the plus half a point at halftime, I think that's still the angle. I don't think it's fully priced in, but I think if you want to wait until you have confirmation on what they're doing with the starters, I understand that,

but you're also going to be reacting to what the market does. So it's kind of a give and take there. And it's perfectly fine to pass a game when you have this level of uncertainty. Yeah. Connor Steelers win, gets them into the playoffs with the bills loss. So obviously then there's all sorts of scenarios that involve ties, not rattling through those for anybody. We're probably not gonna have a tie this week in terms of like the Texans Colts game and all that stuff. So it's an important one for the Steelers, obviously, but, you know, again, Clark did a good job there pricing in what the first half line is. Cause I do think we see a little bit of Baltimore, but what are your thoughts here real quick on Steelers and Ravens? Yeah. Harbaugh also mentioned too, in his press conference that he would not,

you know, be deceiving in his injury report. So I think that we'll have a much better idea whether starters are going to play or not kind of in the his injury report. So I think that we'll have a much better idea of whether starters are going to play or not kind of in the coming days here. So I would personally just wait on it. Also to something that I didn't mention at the top, but something that we'd mentioned basically every year in week 18, every year, there's a team that needs to win against the team that doesn't need to win.

And the team that doesn't need to win wins. Like it just happens every year. Last was the last year was the bills. Dolphins maybe two years ago was bills dolphins where the bill the dolphins needed to win to get in the bills had nothing to play for and the dolphins lost by like 30 like it was like you know aggressively playing a backup in the second half and the backup was just dominating yeah it was awesome oh yeah yeah so i mean again every year it happens so that it can be it it's a factor in the analysis. Obviously it matters to some extent,

but it shouldn't be the main crux of your analysis, in my opinion, at least in this way. So yeah, this game specifically though, I think, you know, Clark, you did a good job kind of laying it out there for me. It's kind of a wait and see Mason Rudolph continues to impress. They're riding with the hot hand there. I mean, he looks like the best, he's played the best two games in my opinion of any sealers quarterback in the last like two years. So, I mean, we'll see. I'm interested to see if you can keep rolling there. I mean, he looks like the best he's played the best two games in my opinion of any sealers quarterback in the last like two years. So, uh, I mean, we'll see. I I'm, I'm interested to see if you can keep rolling there. I'm dubious. I mean, we've seen multiple examples this season

of a backup quarterback coming in and playing well for multiple games and then kind of evening out. Um, and I'm just wondering whether that's probably not this spot against potentially Ravens backups, but certainly in the playoffs, I think will be a good chance to fade the sealers. You know, if it's the right matchup. Look last week, the Eagles needed that game. Cardinals didn't need that game.

And what happened? Right? Like, so like, you know, these teams have been like eliminated already for a long time. Like, you know,

these guys are still incentivized to put good tape out there. Like they might be coming back to that team. They might be trying to compete for, you know, playing time. They might be trying to get a free agent contract elsewhere like teams aren't incentivized to tank it doesn't matter who's going out there they're going to be trying their best to win football games regardless of what team they're playing for so it's a great point it happens every year all right the other saturday night game is when we know

matters is obviously lots of uh permutations that have the texans and colts in the playoffs but they need to win for the most part texans are on the road in indy uh texans are one point favorites there's some one and a halves out there as well totals at 47 and a half so it's a very interesting one there's some i think some possible futures or awards tied to the outcomes of this game too at least maybe not as much coach of the year we thought this might be like a coach of the year head to head stefanski seems to have run away with that a little bit. But, Connor, I'll give you the floor here. Thoughts on Texans-Colts? Yeah, so the last time these teams met is when Anthony Richardson came in,

was playing really well, scored multiple touchdowns on the ground, then got hurt. And so then Gardner Minshew came in and played extremely well, passed the ball through the air well and had a great day there. But I think what's interesting here is CJ Stroud is a really good matchup in a couple of areas. So the Colts defense, 25th in pressure rate. And when he's not pressured, CJ Stroud's averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. And then against cover three, which the Colts play one of the highest rates in the league,

over 50% of the time. So that's a reasonably actionable Stroud, second in yards per attempt in the league, first in passer rating. And so I think that we're looking at a spot here where CJ Stroud should be effective through the air. The ground game should be effective offensively. My question is a lot with Houston's defense and whether or not their pass or their pass events can really hold up against Minshew, who just basically shredded them. And Houston against any offense that's willing to take shots basically has kind of really struggled in the passing game. So that's my only question. But still, I think that C.J. Stroud here is going to be able to get it done.

So I took a little bit. It was like open to plus one and a half, took some of there. I think that honestly up to minus six and a half could be kind of fun for Houston. I just think that the matchup offensively is so interesting for Houston here. So that's kind of my lean. I do have some questions about their wide receiver depth though it looks like uh noah brown and robert woods may have some tough time getting on the field here so it's basically just gonna be nico collins and dalton schultz which i mean to be honest i think it's still probably fine yeah both teams have had some injury issues

through the middle of the season here but they're kind of outside of maybe the you know some cluster injuries as connor mentioned on the texans receiving core starting to get healthy some you know guys coming back on the texans defense in the last couple weeks i think they're trending in the right direction too uh clark what are your thoughts here this is a very interesting matchup i think um if you think back to patrick mahomes early career tom brady early career there were signs they were going to be very good but you couldn't have predicted that they were going to be like all time great. And if you could, if you could just go back in time and just bet, you know, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, like whenever they were in a spot like this, you'd make money. And I don't know if CJ Stroud is that, but there's a possibility that CJ Stroud is that good. Like

he's been excellent as a rookie and it's the things that really matter, like pocket presence, avoiding negative plays, extending plays and creating on the run. He's just, he understands the game and psychologically, like I'm seeing the sort of studying the game growth that like really, really good players have. Like he thinks about the game in the way that I think matters. So there's a chance that we kind of look back on this and be like, wow, we got CJ Stroud under a field goal, you know, against the Colts and Gardner Minshew. It's not like the Colts, the rest of the Colts team is that much better than the rest of the Texans team. And they definitely have a quarterback advantage. But at the same time, CJ Stroud might not be that guy, right? Like, you know, Justin

Herbert had an amazing rookie season and he's he's very good but he's not the kind of guy where you just blindly bet in a situation like this and there's plenty of other examples like that so I don't think we know who CJ Stroud is yet but I think there's a chance that he's the guy that you just want to bet on and under a field goal like this um that said the Colts have been sort of night and day home and away team especially recently they're kind of like the Cowboys where when they're playing inside in the dome and they've got the crowd, they play really well. They, they, you know, they do a lot of stuff like Gardner Minshew has commanded the line

of scrimmage when he's at home. And then when they've gone on the road and had to play with a deficit, they've been really, really bad. Partly because they don't have really good receivers. And when you're one dimensional and can't run the ball, you get behind, you're kind of forced into a bad spot for the Colts. So I think, I think this is a really interesting game. I don't have a strong opinion. I'm still, still kind of forced into a bad spot for the Colts so um I think I think this is a really interesting game I don't have a strong opinion I'm still still kind of working it out I think if you wanted the Texans you kind of wanted to get in early and I think it may even

still run higher like maybe two and a half two it might close for the Texans um but I think this is just a spot that uh there's so much at play and my biggest advantage or my biggest angles are Stroud might be underrated, but also the Colts' defense might be underrated, and I hate when I have that kind of cross matchup of angle against angle. It tends to be a stay away from me. So it's a very exciting game, very excited to watch it. If C.J. Stroud is him, then he has a chance to show it here,

and I think that would be exciting for the playoffs. Yeah, the Colts, I think their secondary has been bashed all season and they've been, they perform better than I think people realize. And like Juju Brents has been a really strong rookie coming in for them and was injured for about five or six weeks there in the middle. He's been back for the last three. And I think he makes a massive difference for them. So yeah,

it kind of, it's, I want to go Texans, but I do feel like we probably missed the best of the number. And it does look like we're continuing to cook up there on the Texan side. So that one's going to be interesting on Saturday night has massive ramifications for how some stuff on Sunday goes down to next game. That matters a lot early on Sunday is going to be the Falcons and the saints.

The saints are three point favorites here at home total between 42 Falcons and the Saints. The Saints are three-point favorites here at home, total between 42 and 42.5. Looks like there's a rogue 41.5 out there too, which is a key number which would matter a little bit if you're looking there. So look, the game between the Bucs and the Panthers matters a lot too, obviously, in terms of who wins the division. Obviously, the Bucs win, they win the division. There are multiple scenarios where this game still matters. If the Bucs lose, this game becomes for the division. The Falcons have the tiebreaker over both the Saints and the Bucs. They could be 8-9 and the Falcons are your NFC South division winners. There's still a path for the Saints to make the playoffs, even if the bucks

win the division in terms of what happens with seattle and some other stuff the packers uh so this game is massively important we know that bowl teams are going all out here uh and i'll give it to you clark what are your thoughts on saints falcons and you know you can touch on some of the futures that you have here as well yeah this one's super complicated i'm annoyed i you know i took out a big saints division uh position and i had good value on it and then just watched it waste away. So I think that this is a good game to break down because both teams, like you said, are going to be all in here. I don't really care about who's playing quarterback for the Falcons. I think Desmond Ritter might be slightly better than Taylor Heineke at this point, but his tendency for old time turnovers kind of offsets

that advantage. So it really doesn't matter. I'm not changing my number based on who's starting at quarterback. So the Heineken injury doesn't matter to me. But I think both offenses should have some success here. And there's two reasons for that. One is both of these teams, as we've talked about since the preseason, have benefited from playing a very easy schedule.

And just because of the way that football works, it's easier for a bad offense or it's easier for a bad defense to look good when playing bad offenses than it is for a bad offense to look good against bad defenses, right? So what that schedule has done has made the defenses look better than they are. Whereas the offenses are both halfway decent,

like not halfway, they're basically average offenses, but the defenses are both pretty bad, but they've gotten away with it because they haven't really played anyone. So I think both offenses have an advantage for that reason. Also when they played each other the first time, also in a dome, there was a ton of offense. There was like over 800 yards. Um, I think maybe like 40 plus first downs. Uh, the final score was 29-15 because, or no, slightly less than that. The total was 39, but that was because they went one for seven in the red zone and had a bunch of turnovers in bad spots. Now we're talking about the Saints and Falcons, so poor red zone performance and

turnovers in bad spots is part of the package that you're dealing with. But I also think that even on a bad day, one for seven in the red zone is extremely bad. And the turnovers were in really bad spots. So if they just kind of put together a similar type of performance, they're going to go over this number. I don't really have a strong take on the spread at three. I think that's the right spread, Saints by three. It was a little higher earlier in the week, and that got bought up on the Falcon side. I think that's fair.

But I would go over this number at anything 42 and a half or lower. Once it hits 43, that's a key number that I don't want to mess with. But at 42 and a half, I still like the over. There should be points. Yeah, we touched three and a half briefly when it came back down. Although DraftKings is out at three and a half on the Saints minus 102 it looks like. So, and you know, some of the other threes that are out there are juiced up. So we could be trending back that way, which is interesting. Connor, what are your thoughts here on Falcon Saints? Yeah, I think I would consider some Falcons at three and a half. I think three was like a lean for me.

But if we look back at last game that they played, Ritter only had 21 pass attempts. They ran the ball pretty well on the ground. I think that's kind of pretty key here for the Falcons, is that when they're able to run the ball well, it just allows them to operate so much better offensively. And that's like because, you know, the last pressure you put on Desmond Ritter or Taylor Heineke or anyone who's quarterback, you know, I think that that's it's just crucial to like their game plan, basically. Because you saw, I mean, the collapse in the Panthers game and, you know, many other spots here like their need to alleviate as much pressure as as possible from them. In my opinion, that's their only way to win right now.

So I think that that's interesting. Getting three and a half here is a unique spot here. Over under, you know, initially I leaned under. We did play the under in the last game, but it seems like we got a little lucky based on, like, kind of the underlying metrics that Clark laid out. And, I mean, part of it was Derek Hart just had a fantastic day through the air. 300-plus passing yards.

Olave had over 100 receiving yards. So, you know, I think that that is a little bit scary in some senses here if you are an underbacker. But I still think the Falcons, you know, at their core have success on the ground, are able to keep it close enough and potentially, you know, control the game if they're able to get a couple of stops defensively. So, yeah, give me the Falcons here at three and a half. You're able to grab that. Yeah, and we're moving that way. So, you know, no rush to the market now. Currently, you're paying a little bit extra for that three and a half on DraftKings specifically,

but it looks like everyone else might be trending there soon. So that one's interesting. And again, you know, a unique one. There's only a handful of games that don't matter at all, but only a handful that like we know absolutely matters significantly for both clubs. So that makes it a little easier to have a normal handicap for it. Let's jump down to the other game here in the division that matters. Tampa Bay on the road at Carolina.

Obviously, Carolina's been out for all season. So it doesn't matter. Carolina has no draft position to play for. They do not have their first round pick. So we're going to get whatever the best version of the Panthers is, or we'll get here. Case can be made that that doesn't really matter. But bad loss last week for the Bucs.

They are five and a half point road favorites here. And 37 and a half is the total basically across the board here. Connor, what are your thoughts? Bucs win the division, but they need to win the division. Outside scenarios to me, the playoffs get really hard for them if they don't win this one here. Yeah, it's pretty interesting. I mean, if we look at the last time we played here,

I think that there's some things we can draw from that. It's like Baker didn't really play particularly well. He was like 200 passing yards. He played all right. The Panthers' defense, I think, is a little bit underrated, and they have been for the last couple weeks you know they've been playing fairly well for the most part here it's just like their offense is just so so bad that like they you know can't consistently move the ball we saw that against the Jags they're in a great matchup against the secondary that's been playing terribly they literally couldn't move the ball through the air

but now we look at what happened last time I, the Panthers ran the ball really well against the Bucs. Chuba Hubbard had a big day on the ground. And so that I think is, you know, again, kind of like the Falcons is key. If they're able to run the ball, not have their defense be on the field, basically, you know, a ton, you know, I think that they keep it close here. Do they win? You know, that's another question, but you're getting five and a half here. I would lean towards the Panthers. You know, they've been my, my gross team of the year, and I'm just going to keep riding with it because, again, I think we have a reasonable example of them already doing it. Another one of those things, it's a big game for Baker, a big game for the Bucs.

What can go wrong backing Baker in a big game, right? Clark, there's been some early money in movement here because we came out at four on FanDuel on the Bucs side, climbed quickly to five and a half. We even touched touched six briefly and then we kind of stabilized back down at five and a half what are your thoughts here on Tampa Bay Carolina yeah I think six is a ceiling because I think too many people are going to be interested in the Panthers at six but this you know this is a tough like if you're the Panthers you just got absolutely waxed by a backup and and the Jaguars. It was like 29,

zero, nothing was working. The, the offense, you know, Jonathan Mingo just went on IR, not that he was incredible, but like,

you know, you're talking about a bad receiving core to begin with. This is, this is a team that has struggled all year. And, and we've seen teams where the head coach gets fired and they kind of change their identity, like the Raiders and they become competitive and really fired up. We haven't really seen that from the Panthers. They've just kind of

been flat. They're kind of a walkover. They stay in games. Their defense is playing hard. Like you said, they got some playmakers on defense, which always helps, but it's just a tough spot to put too much on the line on a team that just has nothing going for it. The most important element of any team is the passing offense and the passing offense sucks. The quarterback is not good. The protection is not good. The receivers aren't good.

The scheme's not good. There's no, there's no fixes here. So if the Bucks defense is healthy, I saw some favorable reports on Carton Davis, Carton Davis and Shaq Barrett, both of whom missed last week. Then I think there's reason to expect another bad performance by the Panthers offense. And that's, that's just a tough spot to get involved in. Even at, even at plus five and a half, like that's the way that I lean for sure. I'm not, I'm definitely not playing the Bucs against the spread here. I do think it'll come down further, you know, maybe, maybe closes four,

four and a half, but it's, it's just a, it's a really tough spot to stomach and you want to play the home dog. You want to fade the Bucs must win narrative because if they were good, they wouldn't be in this position where they have to beat the Panthers to play the home dog. You want to fade the bucks must win narrative because if they were good, they wouldn't be in this position where they have to beat the Panthers to win the division. They would have sealed it up already. They're not that good. Baker Mayfield is a quarterback who has good games and bad games. And we saw a bad game last week.

He could very well have another bad game. Like the Baker Mayfield cycle continues. Like we've seen, we've seen the charts on Twitter, you know, just when you think he's like so good, he has a complete dud. Now, was that last week? Is he going to turn it around?

Or was that the beginning of the end of the season? I'm not sure. A very interesting game. Another one with huge futures implications for me. So I'm rooting for the Panthers, but I don't have a lot of faith in Bryson at this point. Yeah, again, if the Bucs lose here, we have three NFC South south teams that are eight nine

and the falcons they be the saints the falcons are your nfc uh south champs uh which is just and connor's happy come on happy yeah and we kind of thought this coming in right like you know it's we weren't like alone nailing this division but we knew like we're this really bizarre like just meeting of two things happening at once where we had these insanely easy schedules but these like very bad football teams and we thought we'd kind of get here we maybe we get a nine and eight but no we're gonna get an eight nines maybe uh but someone still has to win the division and again when we get uh you know who knows with the way the eagles are going uh one of these teams is probably hosting the Eagles in the playoffs and, you know, maybe their life, especially if it's a good Baker game, who knows? I'll be seeing next week.

How is this going to get better next year? We've got Derek Carr and the Saints and all the contracts that are like front loaded. The Saints don't have a lot of flexibility. The Bucks are going to ride with Mayfield again. I mean, they're probably just going to be the same kind of team. Todd Bowles, like whatever, how far can he go? The Falcons, you know, they need a new quarterback and head coach,

which is tough to do in an off season. And then the Panthers obviously no, you know, no optimism. So this is going to be another division next year where we're talking about a bad team winning the division and being a four seat. Like it's just, we can already script it out.

Yeah. I mean, the reports are that Falcons are going to keep Arthur Smith too. That's what like the early thing is, which is crazy. I mean, I don't know. Yeah. Maybe they get Justin Fields. That could be interesting in that offense, but it's, there's a lot of pessimism for me into next year for this division. Justin Fields would never run under Arthur Smith. It would be like, whatever you think makes the most sense, just do the opposite. He'll be like, you know, a pocket, a three step drop passer,

you know, on quick outs. That'll be the only thing that they'll have Justin Fields do if he lands in Atlanta. Just K gun, old school, you know, Bill's style,

spread it out and just chuck it around. Yeah. They just absolutely pivoting from whatever you think makes sense. So yeah, I mean, it's probably a Falcons, but you know, we get a whole off season to talk about all that,

which is, which is exciting too we're gonna skip all the way down to the last real game that we know uh just unequivocally matters and has massive ramifications for playoffs that is the nightcap on sunday with the bills and the dolphins uh in miami bills are three point favorites on the road here hefty total 49.5, 50s are out there as well. Part of this is injury report related on the Dolphins side. Very interesting game. It's going to be, I think, very entertaining either way. But obviously we know, everyone knows at this point, that the Bills have just an insane range of outcomes here.

We could have a two-seed, a team that we think is actually a viable threat to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and even win the Super Bowl. Or they are at home along the likes of the Panthers and the Jets and the Patriots. Right. It's no different and just an insane place. I can't remember a scenario where a team could have the two seed and be legit contenders or miss the playoffs based off of the week 18 game here, Connor. But I'll give you the floor first for Bill's Dolphins. Yeah, it's absolutely insane. And this game is really tough for me because as someone who backed the Dolphins when the division made a pretty big, fairly sizable bet on them, have backed them throughout the year.

I just really struggle with this game and getting here on the Dolphins because you're looking at a team that when these teams met, played last, they literally just could not stop the Bills offense I mean it was free yards it was their movement on the field and then the Dolphins defense got significantly better since then but then now we're looking at a point where they've lost three key players you know we'll get Bradley Chubb Jalen Phillips and Xavier Howard probably as well. Like their game against Baltimore, you know, their pressure rate dipped dramatically from what we saw from their peak. You know, their defense really just like didn't play well. It was kind of, they reverted back to what we saw earlier in the season.

So, I mean, I don't really know how we can expect anything different really in this spot here from the Bills. Like I think they're going to be able to move the ball extremely, extremely well. Now the positive for Miami is I think it looks like Jalen Waddell is going to play. So, you know, if we go back and look at that game, we talked about it the week after on this show, like the final result was a little bit misleading because Miami had like one

or two drives that stalled and all of a sudden they were down like 14 points, you know, but like they moved the ball pretty well for the majority of game they just fell behind and then became one-dimensional and from there the game was basically over the key was just their defense literally could not get a stop so it basically comes down to that like if their defense can have one or two stops you know the whole game maybe miami can keep up and then we're looking at a game that's close if they can't then i mean again it's going to be a pretty big loss here. But my angle here on this, because I don't really want to touch the spread, I think the over is interesting.

I just really struggle to find a way that Miami's defense slows them down, given the injuries that they have right now. I think their offense will be able to be competent enough to kind of keep up, at least in some aspects here and there. So I know 49.5, again, today's NFL is very, very high. But I think in this and a half again, today's NFL is very, very high. But, you know, I think in this spot here, I just, again, just have a hard time seeing Miami slow down Buffalo's offense very much. Yeah.

The first matchup was, I think, closer than the score would indicate because he had Miami moving the ball. They had key turnovers in the red zone, especially in the first half and that kind of flipped that game because they was, they were going up and down the field for both offenses here. here. But again, it seems the dynamic has changed so much since I think that was like week four, week five here. What are your thoughts on Bill's Dolphins? Yeah, so I'm going to go through their schedule. These are the teams they faced that are non-playoff teams. Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Giants, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans, Jets. OK, if you throw out all those games against bad teams, Chargers were OK early in the season.

But throughout those games, they've played five playoff teams and they have a net point differential in those five games of negative 84. They got smashed by the Ravens. They got smashed by the Bills. They kind of stayed with the Chiefs in Germany, but never really kind of closed the game. They got smashed by Philadelphia, and then they beat the Cowboys by two. So if the Dolphins can beat the Bills, it will be a little bit of a departure from what we've seen from them in big games. And I don't typically love sort of arbitrary, like, well, they play well against bad teams or play well against good teams, unless there's some evidence to back it up. And I don't typically love sort of arbitrary, like, well, they play well against bad teams or play well against good teams, unless there's some evidence to back it up. And I think there kind of is some.

Like, this is a scheme-based offense. Like, things have to be clicking. When Tua gets disrupted, like we saw it last week, like, he's missing screen passes, like, badly. You know, like, when things aren't clicking and they're not getting the, you know, the big gains on the ground on first down, they're not getting the, you know, the quick 15 yard pass to Tyree Kill over the middle. When Jalen Waddell's not out there to separate the defense a little bit and create some more space, like things really go downhill. And this was my whole handicap for the Dolphins coming into the season. I don't know if you guys remember, but I said, I understand where your optimism is coming from, but they're so fragile to injury. And right now, you know, assuming Waddle plays,

that makes a big difference. If he doesn't play, I'm very, very skeptical. And then on the defense, which has been looking much better recently, they've now lost Bradley Chubb to go with Jalen Phillips, who they lost earlier. Xavier Howard looks like he won't play. I just don't see how they're going to keep up

the level of pressure with the front four that they've been getting, which has been the key of their success. And if they don't do that against Josh Allen, then I think it's gonna be really tough for the defense to stop the Bills. So I think this is a huge game for the Bills. And they've been playing a lot of huge games and winning them. Not always in impressive fashion. Last week wasn't too impressive. The Chiefs game wasn't too impressive. But they've been doing what they need to do. And I think the way they handled how poorly they played in the first half against

the Patriots, the way they finished the game and made sure they got the win in the end, I think says more about who they are than sort of the fluky stuff that happened that put them in that spot in the first place. So I think the Bills are the better team. I think even in Miami, they're correctly favored by three. And I don't think you can really bring the spread out any further because Miami's offense is dangerous, but this is just not a spot that I'm looking to get involved with dolphins. Cause I think they're just not, they're just not the same level of team as the bills. And I think that's going to show. Yeah, I agree. I think the three makes sense. I think you'd have some pretty quick money coming in on my, on Miami, if it was three and a half and they've clinched the playoff berth, but again, similar situation, they don't necessarily want the Bills in the playoffs they know their chances of getting

the Super Bowl probably are better if the Steelers are in the mix and the Bills are not so again you want to stay sharp I don't think we have any scenario that has the you know the Dolphins laying down for this one but uh man I just as a football fan who wants really good playoff action like I just you've been talking about this for months. We just, we can't have a scenario where we had Mason Rudolph team where we were gonna have, you know, Jake Browning, Bengals team, or we were talking about like at the time,

like a PJ Walker Browns team in the playoffs. We want good playoff games. We want entertaining stuff. So just for that, I want to cheer against my futures, even unfortunately, because I also have the Dolphins taken to win the division at three to one. Right. And I think if you look at the Dolphins taken to win the division at 3-1. Right.

And I think if you look at the Dolphins' situation, if they win, they're playing at home against Steelers and Mason Rudolph or maybe the Texans with CJ Stroud, maybe the Colts with Gardner Minshew. They lose. They're going on the road. They're going on the road against Kansas City if they lose. That's just such a different proposition that even with all the injuries like they have they have to have this game this is essentially a playoff game for them so i'm not worried about

that but but at the same time they'd also know that if they lose they're not out right and like whereas the bills may be facing an elimination game um so there are there are a few nuances to this depending on how the earlier games uh play, but definitely a game the Dolphins won. Yeah. You had something there, Connor? No, no. I think that it's just, I mean, I got my Emmy ticket riding here as well,

but it's like, you know, I talked about it and tweeted it out here, but I, you know, I tweeted out my division winners before the season. And so I, you know, bet on, I think, all of them. Yeah, eight of them. And four of them already won. Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, Niners already locked up. The other four, Cowboys, which win with a win today somehow, miraculously. I have no idea how that happened.

So I wasn't even looking at this and then realized that there's still a chance. The Dolphins, who win and they're in in and then the Jaguars again, another win and they win the division, but then the Falcons, you know, this is the last leg here where they need to win and they need Carolina to win outright. I mean, crazier things have happened, but for sure. Uh, I just, it's one of those things. I mean, it's 20 bucks to win 25 K. You know, I just like did it as a, I mean, honestly, frankly,

like an engagement thing, you know, on Twitter, just like putting some skin in the game on my division predictions and it has, it has a chance to win. So, you know, I think, and I talked to Clark about this before the show, I would probably hedge out a large, large chunk of this if it gets to the Sunday night game, because I have minimal confidence in the dolphins actually winning this, but even getting there, it seems pretty tough. So we'll see, you know, pray for me, you know, pray for Bryce Young to have the best game

of his NFL career and, you know, which actually is not really saying all that much, but, you know, we'll see. You know, you've been back in the Panthers the last couple of weeks. You've earned it here. You know, you've been, this is like the long con here, but you've been like, you've been on the panthers the last couple weeks you've earned it here uh you know you've been this is like the long con here but you've been like you've been on the panthers so this is this feels there's some good vibes around this right you're not like jumping on the panthers bandwagon late you've been a little bit like december panthers rider here you know taking them live on you know outrights yeah they've they've won me a lot of money on these props and i think i've

taken like four or five certain weeks of qb under against them just because they like no one has to throw it's just like and their defense is okay you know they're not like great they're not bad um yeah i don't know that's that would be great that would this would be a nice little you know new year start to the new year so we'll see all right we'll jump through a few of these you guys tell me if you have any thoughts i mean jaguars are on the road in tennessee jag are five and a half point favorites. Fives are even out there. Obviously the Jags need to, well, they win the division if they win. They were on the road against the Titans.

The Titans is another team that's been, you know, not playing for anything theoretically for a while, but this is again, division rivals. This is a Mike Vrabel team at home. They're not rolling over at all. And Jacksonville is look bad. We have questions about, you know,

how healthy how much we're going to get from Trevor Lawrence um you know Clark I'll kick it to you first any thoughts on Jags Titans you know not really like the number has been I'm a little surprised the number's been going up um especially because we don't have 100 confirmation on Trevor Lawrence and obviously he matters a ton I think that just means that people assume he's playing. And like the Titans at home, you know, Mike Vrabel, like Will Lovis has been playing fairly well. Like it just seems like a big number, but it's just not a game I'm looking to get involved in.

I have some futures equity for the Jags to win this. I also just would love to see the Jags in the four seed. Like they're just a better team, especially if they get Christian Kirk back. I saw the news blast and maybe this is what's causing the number to go up that he might return from IR this week, which is a complete shock. And the biggest reason

why they've been struggling recently is because of a lack of receiver depth. And Jamal Agnew went out. We don't know if we get Zay Jones. So Christian Kirk could be massive. But I think this is a spot where it's, it's home dog or pass against the spread. But I'm just rooting for the Jags to win for previously held positions

and probably stay in the way. Yeah, that makes sense. We had a report just moments ago that we'll get a limited participation from Lawrence today in practice here. Connor, any quick thoughts on Jags-Titans or keep it moving? I kind of worry that the Titans are in like a bounce back spot. This is one of those, like nothing to play for versus everything to play for spots.

And you know, the variable is not going to let up here. The Jags secondary has been, you know, had struggled at times. Now they did just play pretty well. It's in the same matchup, you know,

previously. So we'll see. I don't know. Just one of those things that I would not surprise me either way. If the Jags went by, you know, 28 or if they wind up losing outright. Same can be said. We don't really have example of uh Dan Campbell led uh you know Lions team heading into the playoffs with nothing to play for theoretically against the division foe at home

the Vikings here Detroit is a three-point favorite uh I just I can't imagine it's part of his DNA whatsoever but again they have to strategically think about getting to the next week as well. Uh, Clark, any thoughts on lions minus three? No thoughts on that. I mean, it's too low, but, um, you know, the lions very well could rest everybody. Like I have no idea what they're doing. It sounds like someone might know that they're going to plan on resting some guys. So I'm staying away. I don't have the information on that one. Yeah. It feels like a rest number, right? Connor. Yep. No, a hundred percent. Yeah. And look, the books are, are guessing. So like, and it's also, if you're like jumping in on some of these too,

the reality is is unless you have like some sort of information that's not publicly available right now, you're kind of guessing too. And I think there are better ways to allocate your funds. And you can also just, you don't have to bet them on Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday or Friday. Even you can wait for more information or, you know, attack them live when you,

we have a better sense of what the angle is. So same with jets and pats, like doesn't matter at all. Gosh, I want the pats to lose, to have even a shot to get the two seed. I just think they're going to beat the jets. Cause Belichick is,

you know, doesn't really care for the jets. I don't think it going to beat the Jets because Belichick is, you know, doesn't really care for the Jets. I don't think it wants to win that game. Obviously zero implications from the playoff standpoint, but some pretty massive ones in terms of draft order. Browns and Bengals, I think is really weird. Anyone have thoughts on Browns, Bengals, Bengals, six point favorites here, Connor, you know, we probably don't see many Brown starters, if any at all.

They're not really healthy in a lot of spots anyway, so they probably need to rest. Any thoughts here? Well, first off, Jets-Patriots total is 30.5. I almost just spit out my coffee. Well, we talked about that one a while ago. We joked about that one, I think, when we got some of those low totals that one week.

What is going to happen in week 18 with that game? It could be like 28, 29. And there's weather. And there's weather. Yeah, that's tough. In week 18 with that game, it could be like 28, 29. And his weather. And his weather, yeah. Yeah, that's tough. I mean, maybe a bad QB under a game there. Who knows?

No, Browns-Bengals, I think it's about right. It's just one of those games where, like, I just don't have a read because the Browns might be resting, like, their entire starting lineup. And they're pretty banged up, so we'll see. Clark, the one that does matter a little bit, Seattle obviously put themselves in a hole with their loss last week against the Steelers. They are two-and-a-half-point favorites in Arizona. They're alive for the playoffs.

They need some help, but they have to win. Obviously a great win for Arizona, who's looked a little bit more plucky again with Kyler coming back. Any thoughts on Seattle and Arizona? Not really. I mean, I think the three was probably more fair than the two and a half personally, but that's such a small edge. And, you know, I, I don't really have a strong feeling about, I think it's also possible

that the Cardinals are better than my ratings because they do look a lot better. They look, you know, we've seen Kyler be a good quarterback and he's definitely out there, you know, winning for his team. Uh, they got some weapons back. Michael Wilson finally caught some balls again after a hot start earlier this season. So I like what the Cardinals are doing right now. It's not really a truck I want to get in front of,

but I definitely prefer Seattle under the field goal than I would take the Cardinals. The one that is interesting, Connor, I'll give it to you. Bears-Packers. Packers, obviously, playoffs are still alive for them. They're a three-point favorite. There are some three-and-a-halves out there. 44, 44-and-a-half is the total.

Look, the Bears obviously have nothing to play for other than like, hey, it's your biggest rival and you can keep them out of the playoffs. There's no signs at all that we're not getting a full-out bears game here um this is obviously kind of a bloodbath in week one dynamics have changed drastically although you know the packers obviously looked like a buzzsaw uh last week against the vikings what are your thoughts here on uh bears packers rematch to end week 18 yeah i mean the bears are going to come out hot here and fire i know clark played some plus three and a half. I don't blame him. This is like Justin Fields basically like last hurrah potentially.

Like he's playing well. He's playing with confidence. The defense has been so much better throughout the end of the season. It's like they're playing well. I don't know. I mean, they're kind of like rallying around the fact that everyone counted them out and that they were horrible. And, I mean, they're still out. But, you know, they're playing much better,ing around the fact that everyone counted them out and that they were horrible. And I mean, they're still out, but you know, they're, they're played much better, albeit against largely much weaker opponents, you know, down, down the stretch. I think that

the bears are still, you know, in the interesting year plus three, like the Packers are far from consistent, you know, it's like, they're good. And I think Jordan Love has shown plenty of highs, but they're not like, you know, Jordan Love has not been a consistent player on a week to week basis. He just, you know, has popped off for 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns against a couple of teams and then played terribly on other games. So I'm interested to see it. I think the Bears could easily went out right here as a potential upset

spot. Yeah. Clark, you got three and a half. Where are you at with the threes that are out there? And there's a three and a half still MGM. If someone wanted to grab it, you're going gonna pay a little bit for it but uh thoughts on bears packers yeah i love i love the bears here that i loved it at three and a half the three i think you need to pay attention to the injury report for the bears jalen johnson is questionable and i believe he's in a contract year and i know they've had a lot of uh conflict there in chicago

with jalen johnson um and so the idea that he might lot of conflict there in Chicago with Jalen Johnson. And so the idea that he might want to sit out in the final game, if it doesn't really mean anything is, you know, possible. And he's been really, really good. So if he plays, I still like it at three. If he doesn't play three is probably a pass. If it bounces back to three and a half, I would definitely buy that up. But it's, it's a bears or nothing for me. I mean, they're just, they're the better team. Like they've just been playing better than the Packers have. And yet they're three, three and a half on underdogs because the Packers need this game and the bears don't, but that's just not how the NFL works. We see it every single year.

Teams that have quote unquote, nothing to play for are playing hard because, you know, one, they love the game and this is their last chance to do it for the year. And two, they're trying to put stuff on tape that is impressive to because, you know, one, they love the game and this is their last chance to do it for the year. And two, they're trying to put stuff on tape that is impressive to their, you know, ownership and potentially other teams. Like they just want to be valuable. And I think there's also kind of a looseness that happens when, you know, one team is just playing spoiler and the other team is a little bit tight because they need it. And that can play out on the field, especially with inexperienced teams like the Packers. So yeah, I mean, this is one of my favorite sides of the week is the Bears.

Yeah, I think it's going to be an interesting one. And yeah, definitely one that, you know, the Bears are, I think we just see full on out Bears. It kind of goes back to my original point with like Steelers, Ravens. It's just like the Bears are uh gonna give their best there's no shot that they're rolling over to let their uh hated rival you know walk into the playoffs here so that doesn't mean you know that the bears are the right side um you know because motivation we've talked about being you know a fickle part of a handicap but we're definitely going to see full-on effort from the bears who are playing really good

football uh and again taking advantage of a softer schedule but you know encouraging to see a team that's kind of put it together when they finally got healthy because they also had significant injuries there through the tougher part of their schedule as well uh anything else you guys want to touch touch on connor floor yours uh anything that we missed that we didn't uh mention that do you want to kind of give a shout out to yeah i played some played some Niners minus a half in first quarter, minus two and a half first half. It looks like Debo Samuel did like an interview with K Adams yesterday and said that the starters are going to play for a good chunk of the game. You know, I don't know what that means. So I would guess that's why, you know, half quarter, at least a

couple of drives, I would guess out of the starters so i think that that was like an interesting look now like the numbers it's a little bit tough for books to move like the numbers with like the full game versus like the quarter versus the half you know with all that so i think there could still be a little bit of an edge there you know again i just think like they're a significantly better team and if they're playing their starters even for a quarter there so i'm taking some of that there there also to just quickly to circle back on the bears, shout out to Khalil Herbert and the bears there because for anyone interested in making the easiest amount of money, you know,

ever just bet injury report stuff like right. As soon as it's happening, Caesars was still posting Khalil Herbert at like 27 yards, 50 plus at like plus 390 for like five minutes after you know deontra foreman was inactive if you like i mean literally if you're just starting to bet sports you bet nothing else about those and you'll probably make an absolute killing so uh anyways that's probably more of a prop discussion but still just you know a tip there no it was awesome uh same thing roshan numbers were out there he made us sweat a little bit

he barely got over but uh you know he did as well so those were those are pretty light lines um interesting too back on the rams niner stuff too we also had some some sean mcveigh clips and sound bites that sounds like they might be cautious with starters as well um so you might have kind of like a little bit of you know early starters for both teams and backups, which makes that one though, you know, it feels like a guess in terms of what you're getting in the second half from either of those teams. Clark, anything that we didn't touch on that you want to highlight here?

I mean, real quick on that, the Rams situation is interesting because they do have something to play for. Like the sixth seed is going to go into Detroit and the seventh seed is going to go into Dallas probably. And if you're the Rams, like I want to go into Detroit. I mean, that's a pretty easy decision for me. So whether or not that's enough for McVay to think that it's worth risking, you know, a bunch of his guys are somewhat injury prone.

Karen Williams has missed time. Cooper Cupps has missed time. Matthew Stafford missed time. Pukunaku has been dealing with some stuff. It may just be, you know what, we're just going to go in as a seven seed and that's fine. But I can understand why they might want to win so i'm hands off on that one but there's a chance the rams have something to play for yeah yeah it was surprising to hear him say that and again it could have been like felt like when i saw the highlight or the the text on it reading

between the lines a little bit when i heard the clip i was it did sound like he's going to be cautious in some scenarios so we'll wait and see and see what injury reports look like and we know that he is like starters don't play in the preseason like he's he is one of the he's on the far end of the spectrum so the idea that he would say yep six for seven is not that worth it we're still going on the road we still have to beat a good team like who cares we'll we'll play whoever comes our way like you could see him having that attitude and and totally buy it yeah i disagree i mean i agree with you though i think it's the wrong it's the wrong approach here in terms of uh who you end up playing so all right well that wraps up the regular season any other thoughts connor any uh you know do you want to talk about uh anything else before we wrap up no i think we, filled the show with plenty of other stuff,

you know, buzz, buzz through here. You know, I had some extra filler if we were running at like 25 minutes and then nothing else to talk about. But, uh,

I think we had a nice long show here. So I'll be cheering for that. Uh, that nice 25 K ticket for you. That would be fantastic. So big, big, big thoughts.

Maria's on me. All right. All right. I'll be, I'll be cheering that you're able to hedge it and then win your hedge. That's also true. I would definitely be hedging at least half of that if it comes to the night game. He just offered to take me, and I think he sent my entire family to our favorite restaurant.

Maybe not the whole goulos. Maybe not the whole extended family because that might be a little expensive. No. You know. No, but, you know. No, no, no, no. So good stuff. Yeah, we're going to continue to roll here, obviously, through the playoffs. We appreciate you guys hanging out with us this season. Again, before you take off, subscribe, rate, review, all those things go a long way in helping us.

You want to get a $20 subscription for the last couple of months of what we're doing? 444.com slash plans. Check us out. Come back on Friday to hang out with Connor and myself and high slop for props. So for Clark and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everybody. you