Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 2 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: September 11, 2024

Kick off the season with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 2! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog u...psets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 2 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow Ed on Twitter 👉🏼    /  the powerrank Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft king sportsbook i'm ryan noonan back to talk week two sides and totals joined here as always by connor allen connor's going on buddy great week one yeah i mean i had one of my best week ones ever uh went 11 and 3 on props that we released and we lost lost Gardner Minshew under pass attempts by the last pass attempt. And we lost Ezekiel Elliott by half a yard. So like, I mean, to be fair though, I can't complain. We had David Montgomery over 52 rushing yards and over 87, and he hit both of those in overtime. So definitely ran pure on some stuff, got hooked on some others. It all
Starting point is 00:00:42 balances out either way. I felt good. We were reading the room right. It was an awesome week one. Excited to be back for week two. Really excited about our guest today. Gentleman that I massively respect as I think one of the best, if not the best newsletters out there in the space. I don't subscribe to a lot of them, but I found this one to be tremendously actionable.
Starting point is 00:01:02 You can find him on Twitter, at The Power Rank. You can go to thepowerrank.com and his recently released 60-minute guide to the 2024 football season is a must-listen to on Spotify. It is our friend Ed Feng. Ed, welcome to the show. So happy to have you on for the first time. Been on your show, but to have you here for Move the Line feels like long, long overdue.
Starting point is 00:01:23 Ryan, Connor, thanks to you so much for having me on. I'm really looking forward to talking about the NFL. So much to talk about. And yeah, I appreciate all the kind words about the newsletter and the audio book. Yeah. Tell people about the audio book before we jump in, what they can expect there and where they can check it out. I really wanted to do something a little bit different with the NFL preview. There's so much good stuff out there in terms of team-by-team content. But I wanted to do something with audio, and I wanted to give a little bit more of a deep dive into some of the process behind what I use at the Power Rank to get some insights into football. And so it's split up into two sections.
Starting point is 00:02:06 The first is about how to predict interceptions. I kind of use Josh Allen as a jumping off point. And man, if you do not know the story about how Josh Allen got ignored by the entire college football complex, it is completely wild. You would think a guy that stands 6'5 with a rocket arm would, these college programs would just be jumping at him. But that's really not, that wasn't the case at all for Josh Allen. And it's kind of crazy. And then the second story is about how to use the wisdom of crowds to actually make NFL spread predictions.
Starting point is 00:02:39 And, you know, it's kind of, it's something that seems so stupid on the face of it to like go look at these subjective power rankings the week before the start of the NFL season. But but I hope you to convince you that, you know, the results are worth it. And, you know, it's a really important part of my handicapping process. Definitely the first six weeks of the season. Definitely the playoffs, which I talk about in the audio book. But yeah, I mean, definitely for week two. And I hope we'll get into that game a little bit today. So yeah, so you can check it out on my site.
Starting point is 00:03:13 You can actually listen to it for free on Spotify. If you have certain types of plans, check that out at thepowerrank.us. That'll take you to a place on my site. You know a little bit more about the audiobook and um and where you can get it it's it's available on a lot of platforms but uh spotify i mean i just use spotify like i like the platform and they uh that that's actually really good to hear because like there's some other people like hey guys check this out i'm like oh i don't use spotify and i'm like yeah, you really should. It's really like a convenient, good, you know, place. I mean, that's where I get all my podcasts and stuff too.
Starting point is 00:03:50 But yeah, so thepowerrank.us. And, you know, if you have certain types of Spotify plans, you can just listen to it for no additional charge. Yeah, I'm not, you know, Connor will get mad at me sometimes because I'm that dude in the group chat that has the, whatever, my texts appear in a different way. I don't have an Apple phone. So I don't have, I'm not an Apple. Yeah because I'm that dude in the group chat that has the whatever. My texts appear in a different way.
Starting point is 00:04:06 I don't have an Apple phone, so I'm not an Apple. I'm a green text guy. I'm sorry. Android phones, still an Android dude. But yeah, I like Spotify, so I don't have Apple Podcasts or the other things like that. So I used to be a Stitcher guy back in the day that no longer exists, and Spotify is so much better than whatever that was. Rest in peace to Stitcher. But yeah, Spotify kicks ass.
Starting point is 00:04:26 And so does Ed's audiobook. Honestly, I listen to it. It's nice enough to share it with us a couple weeks back. And it's easy to digest. And I think it will help even though we're only in week two. You're thinking about it as like a preseason listen. Still very viable. And again, part of why I'm drawn to Ed and his content, we kind of live in the fringes.
Starting point is 00:04:43 I like my tackles. Ed's in the interception space. My brother in the prop street. So massive respect for that. So grinding the niche markets out there as much as possible. All right. I want to remind folks that two episodes move the line each week. This is the game preview.
Starting point is 00:04:58 Going to go around, share some storylines, some things that we have, some overreactions. Obviously, week two is right for that. Subscribe to wherever you listen. If you're watching on YouTube, some things that we have, some overreactions. Obviously, week two is right for that. Subscribe to wherever you listen. If you're watching on YouTube, we appreciate that too. 444-BETS YouTube channel. You can find Move the Line on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. Definitely appreciate that.
Starting point is 00:05:15 If you want to get all the official plays that we have and all the things that we do this season over at 444, you want to get the betting subscription. It gets you full access to the entirety of the sites, articles, tools, rankings, projections, anything that you possibly do the betting subscription gets you full access to the entirety of the sites articles tools rankings projections anything you possibly do in the football speculation space it's going to be included in the betting sub lots of different ways to get it head over to four for four.com slash plans to check it out you can head over to our twitter page as well lots of different promos
Starting point is 00:05:37 being tweeted out and discounts and all those different things uh you can just dm us directly we'll definitely find a way for you depending on your state and what you can do to get you in for as cheap as possible. Come back on Friday again, 3 p.m. Eastern, Prop Drop, me, Connor, John Hyslop. We got real close on some uncorrelated parlays last week. Overall, a really good show. Excited to run back Prop Drop with Hyslop all season long.
Starting point is 00:06:02 So, all right, gentlemen, week two, Ed kind of touched on it. I think it's kind of one of, if not the most challenging weeks to handicap definitely in the team picture. We are like massively anticipating meaningful football games for about eight months. We spent all this time doing 60 minute podcasts around what to expect for the season.
Starting point is 00:06:23 Connor and I did, you know, eight divisional previews. Each team's got about 20 minutes. And then we see 60 minutes of football from each team, and we have no idea how to put it into proper context. So what's actionable, what's noise, what's match-up derived, we have no idea.
Starting point is 00:06:37 So let's talk about a little bit of overreactions. What teams should we be worried about? What were some bad performances that we're not really concerned about? you want to take this ed where do we what do we do from week one what's a big takeaway for you yeah i mean we can go with so many places with this right i mean um you know one thing that kind of jumps uh off to me like we know the cincinnati bengals had a had a bad day right um i think this is where you really kind of take your prior into consideration, like with a healthy Joe Burrow and a lot of players that they have, are they really going to score 10 points if they play New England again?
Starting point is 00:07:15 I think not, right? And, you know, we expect a guy like Joe Burrow to play at a high level, right? We know this guy's good. He has the track record and then so that prior is a lot different from than a prior like on a Deshaun Watson right a player that's had a much different trajectory and who at one point I would have made the argument I would I would have probably argued at least in my own mind like I want this guy maybe instead of Patrick Mahomes that That was a long time ago. And he's obviously gone through a lot.
Starting point is 00:07:51 And he really hasn't shown it on the football field since he's been in Cleveland. So when you look at that performance, you know, maybe you put a little bit more credence in it as well. Right. And then the third one I really want to point out that I thought was really interesting was Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers. So this was someone that I was not high on coming into the season. They go into San Francisco and all my bets win on that game. I really like San Francisco. So that was fantastic. But then you open up the you know, you open up the numbers and it wasn't all that bad for the Jets. I think they couldn't run the ball um they had very few
Starting point is 00:08:26 pass attempts but their passing successor was actually pretty decent and there's kind of like this uh you know my numbers actually moved them up compared to san francisco which which is not correct uh we've talked about that a little bit i mean this is why i stick back stick back to my priors um especially week one but you know the other thing i thought about that is like i don't think rogers was great but i think we saw a little bit of the old aaron rogers uh that pass that he they looped into um up the sideline i think it was to uh yeah it was to lazard right i was like there's no there's not too many bad quarterbacks can't make that throw and then the the offsides one that he got to Lazard, you know,
Starting point is 00:09:07 up the middle was pretty impressive. So you saw glimpses of the old Aaron Rodgers, which is really not what I was expecting. You saw that kind of like the quick throw, the quick release, and getting accurate balls into places. So I'm holding off a little bit there. Maybe I was a little bit wrong on Jets under nine and a half wins. It remains to be seen,
Starting point is 00:09:28 but looking forward to seeing what happens in the future there. Yeah, we know the schedule opens up, Connor, and the Jets, that was part of our handicap, was that just no matter what you thought of the Jets, if Rodgers had any sort of pulse, and again, it kind of been a little bit since we've seen that, maybe not the same distance since we last seen a viable Deshaun Watson per se, but it's been a little bit since we've seen that maybe not the same distance since we last seen a viable deshaun watson per se but you know it's been a little bit since we saw rogers with a pulse uh any follow-up to uh ed's thoughts there in the open and take it wherever
Starting point is 00:09:52 you want it yeah i mean to start with the jets it seemed like early in the game they were just like committed to the the system of the jets basically it was like early down run didn't go anywhere second down was like either a bad play or another run. And then they would be bailed out on third down. Like their one touchdown drive. It was like basically three of them, four of them to Garrett Wilson, like on third down. And then when they went to like the quick passing game, when they were trailing, they looked way better.
Starting point is 00:10:16 I mean, outside there was like, there was a tipped pick, but then they kind of went to like, okay, Rogers is going to take this where he wants to go with it. And I think when that blend starts clicking a little bit more, maybe in matchups that are a little more friendly, not against one of the best defenses in the league. Um, I think the jets are going to look pretty good defensively, definitely a little concerning. Um, they couldn't stop the run for their lives, but again, the 49ers are great team there. So I think I want to stick to most of my priors in the jets, which were pretty high, I think a little bit higher than Ed's. So I'm still interested in them. The Bengals are an interesting team because as we got closer to Sunday,
Starting point is 00:10:50 it was one of those things where I'm like, well, if the Bengals can't stop the run, because again, they lost DJ Reader, their run defense is bad, and all the receivers are basically out slash coming back for the first time in Jamar Chase. And then you have Andre Yoshivas, who's 100% player who I love, but again, should probably not be a 100% player on this team, especially in week one. Like they might struggle a little bit
Starting point is 00:11:13 and the Patriots got their way, ran the ball consistently, converted on some third downs and played well defensively. So like, I'm not ready to hit the panic button fully on the Bengals. I think that they ran into like one of the worst matches possible.
Starting point is 00:11:24 And we're probably gonna get into that game specifically, but I'm not sure it gets all that much better in this spot against the chiefs either. So those are just my two big takeaways here. Then one last one on Deshaun Watson. Like, I mean, Ed touched on it. Like he, since he joined the Browns 59% completion rate, 6.2 yards per attempt. He's out of the 71 quarterbacks with 100 plus attempts in the last two years or three years at this point he's 52nd in epa post cpoe composite score so like he's just hasn't been good i mean he hasn't been good since he was in houston and so i think at this point like us holding on to the glimmers that we saw of him playing like an mvp level in in houston for whatever that 10 game stretch. So one season,
Starting point is 00:12:05 like I just don't think that that exists anymore in the current system. Like they, they need to move on. Like, I think it needs to be just over for, for Deshaun Watson. New cycle might be giving them a loophole to do that too. We'll have to wait and see what happens there with the recent allegations
Starting point is 00:12:20 and all that stuff. It's a different show. But yeah, that seems to be pretty murky and who knows what's going on there. But yeah, I mean, it's hard to argue. I mean, if you wanted to make a case for Deshaun Watson at all, it was the fact that maybe there's something to, maybe we were underrating a little bit of the Cowboys defense coming into the season.
Starting point is 00:12:39 Maybe the Zimmer defense is something that we need to have given a little bit more of a bump to. Also, you did have him going up basically without his two tackles and Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin in that matchup against, you know, obviously one of the best, most disruptive edge rushers in the game. But, I mean, it was bad last week. Drop back success rate, 23%, the lowest of any week one starter. He's pressured 25 times in that game. Looked disinterested too i
Starting point is 00:13:06 mean i'm body language police but it was it didn't look good uh pressured six times five or 17 under pressure 22 yards took six sacks it's always kind of taking sacks it's always been a thing and part of that you see those guys that have the ability to create outside the pocket scramble hold on the ball a little bit too long when the the magic disappears and dries up, now those are just sacks, right? Or picks. And that's bad. We saw both for Deshaun Watson. They're not going to get better without those tackles in the spot against Jacksonville, who's going to play a crap ton of man, has a pair of head rushers that can be problematic for Watson too. So that injury report is a pretty big one to watch out for in terms of handicapping the Jacksonville-Cleveland game. But I want to talk to you guys about the Falcons.
Starting point is 00:13:49 We concerned at all about the Falcons, you know, just straight pistol Connor for Kirk Cousins didn't look good. You watch it a little bit of the all 22 end zone stuff and just look like he didn't want to look like a guy that didn't want to kind of get off that back foot and drive the football down the field. And I think there's a difference between being healthy and good enough to play and then getting in the game and actually having that confidence and getting through. And we saw it a little bit too.
Starting point is 00:14:13 And, and having him out of the pistol was a little bit concerning as well. And the offensive line played absolutely abysmal. They got racked. And I, another spot where I don't know that it gets better in a week too. So. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:23 I think two things can be true here. Like he is not ready to play. Ben selected a great breakdown of like his under center versus pistol rate historically. And then compared to now, like he's historically been under center, a lot of the move, a lot of like play action,
Starting point is 00:14:35 you know, boots. They didn't do any of that. You know, it was just a lot of pistol. And I think that's just because he can't move. Like he just, he can't,
Starting point is 00:14:43 he wasn't able to even drive off of his back foot at times in the throws, which I thought was really problematic. So, but on the same time, again, this is the other aspect is like, I think the Steelers defense is pretty good. I think their pass rush is pretty good. And that like some of it is, you know, was matchup fueled. So that's kind of my only like issue with being like, Oh, Falcons are done. You know, the offense is over. Like, it's just, you know, I don't want to throw in the towel fully. Um, I think they'll be able to figure some stuff out. Bijan Robinson looked pretty good for the most part. I think if they can get any semblance of a passing game going, I think that there'll be probably fine. Um, but I mean, he needs to get healthy quick. Otherwise, again, if they're not able to do anything that he's good at,
Starting point is 00:15:19 like they probably just need to put in penics, I guess, and see what goes from there because it was pretty pathetic at times, honestly, when you have the weapons that you do and not able to complete like 10 to 15 yard passes yeah ed what are your thoughts there i mean at philly this week on monday night football not kirk's uh you know strong suit historically um then they get to kansas city in week three so like you know this is kind of what connor and i were talking about like that division as a whole maybe you jump in later if you had some sort of future lean, because you have that week four matchup against the Saints, and you'll probably feel decent about whoever comes out on top of that one,
Starting point is 00:15:52 although obviously Tampa Bay is still in the mix. But thoughts on the Falcons after week one? Well, my son and I are mad that Drake London had two fantasy points. This is the first year we're doing fantasy football, and when you lose your first game ever by two points, it doesn't feel good to see those types of numbers from Drake London. I think it's something where
Starting point is 00:16:14 you don't want to give up hope on Atlanta simply because the next two weeks are hard. Preseason, they had by far the easiest schedule of the NFL in that division. Pretty sure they get the Chiefs at home, right? Yeah, they do.
Starting point is 00:16:29 So, you know, a little bit of an edge there. And, you know, as far as Cousins goes, I don't know. Like, I didn't actually have a chance to see the game yet. But, you know, he's a veteran quarterback. And, you know, is it time to give up on them? Especially when, you know, they had all those turnovers, you know, you're going to, you're going to lose that, that happy game. So I don't think it's quite ready to give up on Kirk cousins yet.
Starting point is 00:16:54 Let's see how this plays out and give it a couple more weeks. Yeah. I kind of agree with that too. The offensive line was bad. They typically are, I would say a strength of the team, but they're not usually that bad uh so that was definitely a problem and that's going to happen against a good defense and pittsburgh obviously especially up front can definitely generate pressure and yeah i mean just tj watch just played his face off in that game and uh it's a lot of fun to watch so all right let's jump into some of the week two games we touched a little bit and danced around some of the stuff here as
Starting point is 00:17:21 it relates to cincinnati uh is one of the i think better games here on the slate this week they are um like on the road in kansas city is not a great place to be this line has been on the move a little bit where are we in the opener we're about uh well it was three and a half in the look aheads last week after sitting out at like four and a half for most of the off season we are out we touched six for a little bit we are back down to five five and a half depending on where you'reseason. We are out. We touched six for a little bit. We are back down to five, five and a half, depending on where you're shopping. Total's out there at 47. It's obviously been a good matchup for Borough historically.
Starting point is 00:17:52 It's fared pretty well against the Chiefs in his career. Connor, three and one record. Obviously some playoff games, some highly contested games. All four of those games have been within three points, so they've been tightly contested. But obviously some concerns with Borough. We don't know what's going on with the injury report here. Obviously T Higgins,
Starting point is 00:18:07 his issues too, obviously having him back, make things a little bit difficult or would make it a little bit easier, less difficult. What are your thoughts on Bengals chiefs? Yeah, I have a tough time backing the Bengals here and maybe it's just recency bias and what we saw.
Starting point is 00:18:19 But if we look at this matchup specifically here, like the chiefs, I mean, they, the, we saw this Bengals defense here specifically just struggle against the run against the Patriots offensive line that we don't think is very good in an offense. We don't think it's very good.
Starting point is 00:18:32 Now they get the Chiefs offensive line, which is better. Isaiah Pacheco is better. And you have a capable passing game. Like I think that the Chiefs realistically, if they wanted to go pass heavy, I'm sure they'd have some success, but they can go run, run deep pass play action. And just like absolutely shred the secondary if they want to with that kind of game plan. And I mean, I'm fully expecting them to do that because they can just run the ball, give Patrick Mahomes a day off
Starting point is 00:18:55 essentially, and have plenty of success with Pacheco in this running game against just like what looks like a bottom three run defense right now in the NFL, in the Bengals. And so I worry about that because it puts a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense to carry the team against a Chiefs defense that once again looks pretty good. I thought they played pretty well against the Ravens in week one. And there's not a clear path to success for this Bengals offense that without T. Higgins, who looks like he's going to miss again, didn't practice again today.
Starting point is 00:19:24 Now, again, you're having Jamar Chase come back and now he needs to be that full a hundred percent Jamar chase, I think for them to stand a chance. So am I excited to lay the five, five and a half? No, but I think that that's probably my, my look on this game at this point. I just seemed like it's going to be a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow and Jamar chase to essentially carry this team to success in this game. Yeah, Cincinnati just gashed for a year plus now, Ed. Explosives on the ground. For New England to do that last week was the one thing that makes me a little bit nervous.
Starting point is 00:19:54 But what are your thoughts here? Right. I mean, look, there's a huge random element to explosive plays, so I'm not going to make too much of that. This is a game where, you know, like on my site, I do a member prediction. And I'm actually, I don't really love my adjustments these first couple weeks. I'll make an adjustment based on closing market spread, passing success rate, yards per pass attempt. And it actually dropped the Bengals like a point and a half. I think that's just too much for week one. And when you have a preseason model, that does pretty good.
Starting point is 00:20:31 So if you go to my site, I have Kansas City by about eight, kind of suggest value at five and a half. But again, are we overreacting to what we saw last week? I would lean towards yes. And then my preseason model actually has this by 6.7 points. So this is the wisdom of crowds model that I talk about in the 60-minute guide to 2024 football season. And for this game, I'm going to stick with that. I'm going to stick with what we thought about in the preseason. Partially, that's because, like like this model is just done pretty well
Starting point is 00:21:05 uh when it differs from the closing line by two or more points uh it's about 54 against the spread since 2014 now please do not go and just bet the model um and it's a good sample though in 10 years it's just simply too hard um but like i do use it as a tool and and for this game in particular like i'm gonna say you know like my handicap is like this should be about a touchdown right uh forgive about everything we saw last week it should be about a touchdown so i mean i would get interested if you know if i could get kansas city minus five uh i doubt it's gonna get there i i i definitely see this moving more towards kansas city so i'll lean that way um but i think the handicap there is like, look, like, let's let's
Starting point is 00:21:46 assume that Cincinnati can kind of get together. Burrow is going to play better than last week. And let's also assume that Kansas City is really the best team in the NFL, probably right with with Mahomes and Reed and and and just a defense that really surged last year. And they still have a lot of a lot of those key pieces. I think it's reasonable to say that this should be almost a touchdown. And we'll see where the market's closed. Yeah, five's out there currently. DraftKings, ESPN, a couple other shops right there. Five and a half's out there too.
Starting point is 00:22:16 So, yeah, I'm kind of with you guys. I think that I don't want to overreact to what we saw in Cincinnati because they were a team that I was bullish on coming into the season, like they're going to win that division. We've seen historically with them slower starts flip the switch they were doing it last season before Burrow get injured again uh mid-season there in Baltimore and kind of uh ended the the run there but I still think that they're in the mix but I think Kansas City is is legit and they'll be able to scheme up stuff here and uh five I think on Kansas city is the right side. So, all right, we'll keep it moving here. Touch on the new Orleans saints,
Starting point is 00:22:48 making the travels to Dallas here. Let's see where our line has moved here. Six and a half, basically painted across the board. Totals a little different. We've got 45 and a half out there all the way to 46 and a half, which I think is interesting. It's not necessarily a key number, but still getting pretty close to that. What's interesting to me is that we had a pretty good showing last
Starting point is 00:23:09 week for the saints kind of regardless of what you thought of them coming in and this was six in the lookaheads and that was like pretty good too it's now six and a half uh it's basically i think the market telling us that they thought that was a little bit of a phony business. And maybe the Panthers are not a real NFL football team. And what are your thoughts on Saints and Cowboys? Right. I mean, you know, I would have made this about seven and a half in the preseason. And my numbers bumped up both of these teams.
Starting point is 00:23:40 And so I still have about seven and a half. I don't think either team will play as well as they did last week, whether that was fluky performances, bad performances by their opponents or particularly good performances by them. You know, Dak got that big contract, and I think that they're going to be able to do some things on offense, but, you know, still some question marks on the offensive line with, uh, the personnel that's changed there. Uh, don't really love their defense.
Starting point is 00:24:11 And then, you know, for, for new Orleans, like, yeah, I don't know. I mean, I don't, I don't think Carolina is as bad as they showed last week. Um, I think it's more like they're, uh, they're bad, but not that bad. And let's see a little bit more from new Orleans before we really, uh, I think it's more like they're bad, but not that bad. And let's see a little bit more from New Orleans before we really start backing them. This is definitely a stay away for me. And yeah, it's a stay away for me. Yeah, it's not crowned the same tick, Connor.
Starting point is 00:24:40 Tough spot too. Offensive line is bad. Panthers are not really designed to exploit that. Dallas might have a little bit more success doing so. And then Marshawn Lattimore looks like he's probably not going, dealing with a hamstring injury. I don't think practice today has not been like a bounce back quick from an injury guy in his career.
Starting point is 00:25:00 It's not good news for their matchup here against the Cowboys passing offense. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I go back and forth. You guys brought up a lot of it here. I think this is the ultimate week one reaction game of how bad are the Panthers and how bad is the Browns offense based on what we saw. And I don't think we really know the answer to that.
Starting point is 00:25:18 So I think we have to rely a lot on our priors here. And so, like you mentioned, you had this a little over seven in the preseason um i think i would have had it right probably right at the touchdown here like i think that makes perfect sense and some of the match specific stuff you brought up here noonan of um the offensive line like i mean this was projected to be the worst if not one of the worst offensive lines heading into the season and just because they drew again this panthers defense now without derrick brown projects to be i mean the worst worst bottom three defensive line in the league at this point uh noonan um it's not good i mean
Starting point is 00:25:51 yeah when you're relying on a lot of ashaun robinson snaps uh to penetrate like that's like you're just you're in trouble it's gonna be clean pockets for guys all season against against the panthers yeah so like how much stock do we really put into that? I'm just not really ready to get there as a, as the saints being a team that should beat anyone by 40. So I tend to think that that was just a little bit of variance. So for me, it's probably a lean towards the Cowboys at six and a half, but overall you know,
Starting point is 00:26:16 we came into the season wanting to be a little bit lower in the market on, on the Cowboys, which is not sure if this is that opportunity here to really, you know, buy back on another team. Yeah. I was just fascinated by it. I mean opportunity here to really buy back on another team. Yeah. I was just fascinated by it. I mean, I know Dallas had a good game, but I thought if at any point in the season there
Starting point is 00:26:30 was going to be positive market sentiment for the Saints, it might be off of a game where you barely had to play your starters in the fourth quarter and you absolutely boat raced another NFL football team. Because I agree with Ed. I think the Panthers are pretty bad. I don't think they're that bad. I don't think any team is that bad. But the fact that the market's just like, nah,
Starting point is 00:26:47 kind of calling bullshit on the Saints here. And we don't really believe you either. So interested to see what happens there. Next one, I'm going to talk about the Rams and the Cardinals here. This is a game in Arizona, obviously divisional matchup here. The Cardinals one and a half. There are ones out there as well. And total 40, between 48 and Cardinals, one and a half. There are ones out there as well. And total 40, between 48 and a half, 49 and a half.
Starting point is 00:27:09 Again, kind of kicking around some key numbers there. This was Rams. Yeah, Rams minus two and a half in the look aheads. So we've had a little bit of movement. Obviously another team where the injury report is massive. I mean, the fact that the rams almost stole that game on the road against the team that we think is super bowl worthy uh in detroit with a i mean one nfl starter along the offensive line and look and they barely did
Starting point is 00:27:40 because like they gave up a ton of pressures and stafford is that dude again probably one of the most underrated quarterbacks of this generation is what he's able to do they lose cooper cup in game just absolutely abysmal now again i don't know what they're gonna have for an offensive line this week ed but it's again another spot where against any of any of the other teams in the league it might matter against the cardinals it might not matter that much they don't really generate pressure very often. Thoughts on the Cardinals' one-and-a-half-point favorites at home? This spread does not make any sense to me at all. No.
Starting point is 00:28:16 I mean, you mentioned why Arizona's favored. All the injuries for the Rams. Pukunuku is out. That obviously matters. The injuries on the defensive line. The Rams not having Darius Williams, who has been a great cornerback in the past. So that's why I mean, that's part of the reason why Arizona is favored. You look at Arizona last week. They were up big on Buffalo in the first half. Buffalo did end up coming back in that game and winning um i uh really liked buffalo in that game and uh what sent it out to my
Starting point is 00:28:49 members unfortunately uh by the time i had capped it and by the time i sent it out it moved from five and a half to six and a half which is uh not good when the the game lands on six so a little bit of bad luck there um but are we really bumping up arizona for that game right like it pretty much landed where we expected arizona had a kick return for a touchdown which is a type of play that has a big random element to it right so like not a reproducible type of thing um you know buffalo uh is definitely the better team and like i i don't like the arizona roster at all um you know i i need to see kyle murray be back to the guy he was in 2021 uh where he led them to the playoffs and instead i see stats that are getting worse with every year and obviously there's injuries that are that are going on and
Starting point is 00:29:36 he was working his way back from injuries um but i'm really not convinced at all. I think this is a bad roster. I think the Rams, look, I mean, I think the injuries do matter, right? But, like, I have this by four, right? That's the number I'm going to go with. This is pretty much my season prior. And Rams by four on the road. I think that makes sense with a team. Rams should probably be a little bit above average, especially if everyone's healthy.
Starting point is 00:30:06 Let's downgrade them a little bit because of the injury situation. I can't get to Arizona being favored. The injury situation was the same. I don't know that it's probably only better than it was last week, right? And they took the Lions. And again, I know where you're going. And I think that's a good point to bring up, right? Like, I don't really think we can expect them to play as well as they did with that offensive line.
Starting point is 00:30:28 For sure. Again, against, you know, I mean, they were really good in that second half against the Detroit Lions defense that I think is a lot better in the secondary this year. I just think there's simply more talent there and they're going to be pretty good. I don't expect that, but I don't think you need that. Against an Arizona defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year. And yeah, did they bring in some veterans to help it? Yeah. Did they get some high draft picks to kind of help that defense? Yes. But like it's a really bad defense. I think the Rams can do what they want here. Well, their first round pick Darius Robertson is going to play
Starting point is 00:31:03 as many snaps as us this weekend. He's on IR. So any attempt to get a splash along the line from a pass rush standpoint is just not happening. So, yeah, I was with you, Connor. This is kind of where we were in the preseason. This roster is just not good. I know there was some encouraging people like the Cardinals.
Starting point is 00:31:20 They were like a buzzy team. And I think it made sense if you are basically thinking that you're going to get like a top 10 percentile outcome from Kyler Murray. But even then they just, to me, become a shootout team and not actually a playoff contender, right? They don't actually start to make a dent in that division or in the NFC. So I'm with Eddie here. I think his line at four is strong, but I think that that's actually encouraging because I think the Rams are a great look here. The, the Cardinals D line versus the Rams. O line is like the movable objects for stoppable force. You know,
Starting point is 00:31:51 it's like the opposite of the saying because the Rams addressers last week got a 3.5% pressure rate. Brett Coleman tweeted that out. It's like one of the worst cities ever seen. Basically this, this or the Cardinals D the Cardinals defense last week against Bills allowed a 68.8% dropback success rate. Only them and the Commanders were over 60% last week. I mean, just horrible, unimaginably bad metrics coming out of week one.
Starting point is 00:32:20 And look, I think the Bills are good, but I don't think the Bills even played one of their best games. They played very much fine offensively, and they played okay. But I think the Bills are good but I don't think the Bills even played one of their best games like they played very much fine offensively and they played okay but like I think the Cardinals defense is just that bad and so the Rams offense here what's interesting to me is if you go back and watch their two games last year against the Cardinals like they went with a very run-heavy approach they had like 34 and 28 rush attempts from their running backs alone in the two games last year and they were like middle of the pack and i think you know uh run rate in those games but i i mean they mostly dominated in the trenches which i don't know if they're going to be able to do this year but they might try i'm just like interested to see that kind of like balance of like do they try and just run
Starting point is 00:32:56 tyron williams and maybe some more blake quorum in this in this spot here or do they just like do what they did against the lions which is you, like basically have the short passing game be an extension of their running game. And, but I, but like the Cardinals, the answer line is so bad that like, I, maybe they get away with it. You know what I mean? Like this is one of those things where against the lions, no shot, you're doing that against like Aiden Hutchinson and like, you know, some of the other defensive linemen there. Um, but in this game, maybe, so I don't know, I'm, I'm, I'm on the Rams here.
Starting point is 00:33:24 I think that's definitely interesting point. My last point I want to make on this Cardinals team, Marvin Harrison, Jr. Did not look good. Uh, it was not a good start. He looked slow. He wasn't getting open. Don't put too much out there that can get clipped. Cause I don't think you're, I don't think you're going to want to have much out there
Starting point is 00:33:40 to run back later because he's going to be fine. Asterisk in week one, he looked like absolute trash. And I'm fine saying that because he did. Is it going to be predicted in the future? I don't know. But he didn't look good. That's all I got to say. He did not look good in week one.
Starting point is 00:33:57 I'll just throw in there, like, Cleve TA puts out an NFL preview and he liked Marvin Harrison Jr., I jr i think plus 750 for offensive rookie of the year and usually when when he puts something out man that stuff moves it moves this one didn't so i'm not i mean i mean the market knows there's a little bit of a cardinal's bias there a little bit too right there's a little bit of cardinal bias but shouldn't there be a little bit of a cardinal's bump just because you know except for trey mcbride like what else are they putting out there in terms of pass catching talent right yeah so i think that was part of the argument yeah plus 800 if we want to buy low now i'm looking at it right now our office rookie of
Starting point is 00:34:40 the year um some caleb williams plus 165 still jayden daniels three to one wait plus 165 yeah he yeah i mean after last week yeah yeah is that where it was how do i bet no um what's up is that where it was last week was he 165 last week it was like 135 or something like that i think it was like maybe i think peaked at 125 in the preseason, maybe even 115, now down to 165, which still seems so high after what we saw last week because that was not great either. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:15 Ed wants a no based off of that reaction. He wants a Caleb no. I mean, there's so many markets I would like a no on, right? Yeah. I was going to say Circa is like the only place that consistently posts no that you can bet you know anything worth a dollar so maybe they have no's on those markets but they usually don't do a ton of like in-season stuff like all the time like anything too crazy but i don't know maybe you can ask hit up jeff benson and see if he'll throw us
Starting point is 00:35:38 a bone yeah that'd be definitely do whatever you want man yeah just the best yeah he's the man of the people you know at least he's at least that's what it seems like on twitter i actually haven't met him in real life but no no jeff's great i've met him in person once just very briefly at the circa and you know we go back and forth on on the social and uh i went out to uh vegas with some friends and i was like hey is there anything you could do for us? We want to watch some football. He's like, oh yeah, here you go. Here's, I don't know, 10 seats in the circus sports book on, you know,
Starting point is 00:36:12 NFL playoff weekend. That was a notable day because that was, so it was the Jacksonville Chargers playoff game. This was like two years ago, right? Yeah. This was the game where the Chargers were up huge, right?
Starting point is 00:36:31 27 points or something like that? Yeah. And we're sitting there in the Circus Sportsbook, and there's a guy in his Chargers jersey. He comes in, and he's like clearly alone, right? There's not another soul that he's talking to right just and i'm like okay fine cool and then obviously things go against his team and jacksonville i think they line up to kick a field goal at the end right to win the game
Starting point is 00:36:56 yeah sounds right or whatever it was and he's just sitting there all alone like with two fingers crossed up in the air. It's one of the saddest things I've ever seen, man. I felt bad for that dude. But Jeff Benson's the man. Point of the story. Because that experience doesn't happen without his kindness. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:25 It's told Chargers fan friend in my life, my buddy Jeff Feinberg, Feinberg from Twitter, in the golf space, definitely stole years off of his life. I think he's still not really recovered. I think a Chargers fan, you start to get a little bit of scars and they start to callous a little bit, but I think that's still a very fresh wound for Chargers fans. Good thing there's not many of them. Right. You can just tell them that for Michigan fans fans it only took harbaugh what like nine years to get them to
Starting point is 00:37:49 the top so short wait right short wait it's already started it's already started so uh all right let's buzz around a couple of the things that uh i want to get your thought ed on uh this is some interesting market movement here in the colton packers about seven and a half eight point adjustment i'd love to know where you're at because this is a look at line was uh packers minus four and a half obviously jordan loves late game heroics ended with a sprained knee uh whatever mcl wherever we're at gonna be multiple weeks it seems like minimally so probably getting malik willis which is very interesting because they proactively searched out Malik Willis
Starting point is 00:38:29 and traded for him towards the tail end of the season to say, hey, we want you to be our backup quarterback here. And now we are basically painted three across the board, Colts minus three, totals 40.5, 41 out there. What do you think about this one? What do you think about the movement? Yeah, I mean i mean i think i don't know about the movement you know should the cults be a three point favorite what i do know is that my preseason wisdom of crowds model the one that i've been talking about would have made uh the packers six and a half point favorites in this
Starting point is 00:39:00 game at home and it is on the packers for having this quarterback room behind jordan love that contains not only malik willis but sean clifford right i mean they're lucky that love didn't go down last year and we saw more of this kid clifford that couldn't even get it done at penn state and then you bring in another guy who um so he was with tennessee and and he actually came in for ryan tannahill in a game in london against baltimore last year uh had one nice play on a screen and uh they got you know they were they were down two scores and they had a third and goal from the 20 and instead of giving malik willis another chance to score a touchdown Mike Frabel decided to kick a field goal on third and goal I think that's all you need to know about Malik Willis like I mean he's he's
Starting point is 00:39:53 there's nothing I don't know I don't know how you're I mean look the Packers are a really good well-run organization in general but I just do not know how you end up with that quarterback room. Like this is on them. You can easily go out and get a veteran that could win you some games right now, Tyron Taylor or whoever. I mean, you know, there's, there's, there's a lot of guys that you can get like, you know, I mean, you think Packers fans would like a Mason Rudolph right now, right? Can he pick it? Yeah. Jimmy Garoppolo is out
Starting point is 00:40:28 there to be picked up i mean you'd feel better about garoppolo right at least it's you know he won football games what's the super bowl you have some like there's a pulse there whereas like like no offense to malik and his family won't be the first not the first will not be the last like exciting young guy who played really well in college and then just had absolutely zero shot in the NFL. That's just life. That's just how it is. Sometimes your best isn't good enough.
Starting point is 00:40:54 His best was good enough at Liberty, but not for the NFL, Connor. Colts minus three on the road here. It's been a game that a lot of people have been talking about because it seems just obviously a massive move through key numbers. Yeah. And I think that's why the numbers are three here, because like, I mean, we're talking about a move that's like seven, eight, nine points from like look at slash what most people made it. And people are like, how is it possible to make a move that big? Right.
Starting point is 00:41:22 Like it's, you know, feels impossible for a quarterback to be like that big of a downgrade. But at the same time, we have Malik Willis starting and playing a hundred percent of the snaps in three games in his career, 99, 80, and 55 passing yards, while completing 60%, 30%, 60% of his passes. I mean, just like it is hard to under like hard to overstate how bad of a quarterback Malik Willis is in the NFL. And so you're putting him in a Packers system again, which should probably be able to run the ball well, but like how well is even, I don't know, versed in the
Starting point is 00:41:55 Packers system. Like, is he a good fit for them executing even basic things? Like I just have a really, really hard time getting here with Malik Willis. I think Colts minus three is still in play. I don't know. Like I get it that it's again, for most people who are like handicapping size and totals professionally, I get that it's probably a very difficult number to take given where we started and the overall roster makeup. But then you have a, like you have a, just a cold surging Colts offense against the Packers defense. I think is fine. But now we have, I mean, we saw last week the Eagles turned the ball over three times and still scored 31 points. Like, is this a good defense?
Starting point is 00:42:32 I don't know. You know, like, and now you have a Colts offense that's surging. Like, if the Colts score 28 points, I don't know how the Packers score, like, 14. You know, like, that's – like, their only shot of covering is, like, a 17-14 game in my opinion. So, I have a really tough time getting at playing the Packers. Um, I'm going to be on the Colts. I bet a little bit already. I jokingly tweeted out like the, the maximum alt on, on the Colts at 19 and a half, uh, minus 19
Starting point is 00:42:57 and a half when the Malik Willis news came out, I did bet that just for fun, obviously just like, you know, just, just to have some skin in the game on what I tweet. But yeah, I have a really tough time sticking with the Packers here. And I would love to just like, if anyone is listening or you hear anyone that's like betting the Packers at plus three or three and a half even, I would just love to hear the reasoning besides this number is just the biggest move I've ever seen on a side, basically, based on a quarterback downgrade. Yeah, if you're not
Starting point is 00:43:25 originating numbers it's probably a little bit easier to divorce yourself from where it is like it messes with the inputs so much probably to make it you know adjustments and all those different things and you're it's it doesn't equate to that type of uh that type of movement but again just the matchup based um you know analysis it feels like feels like it's, it's fine. I mean, I think Colts minus three plus 100, you know, minus one Oh two in some spots, it feels pretty interesting to me. And again, I also am willing to, and it will continue to carry water for Anthony Richardson because I think he's
Starting point is 00:44:00 got some upside. And I think the same thing for Shane Steichen, it's also very much tied to Shane Steichen. And I think he'll continue to be a talent maximizer. So that would be the case, I think, for Green Bay is that, look, Matt LaFleur is actually really good. And we'll find a way to scheme something up that makes sense for Willis. That's basically, and I don't necessarily even believe that, but that would be your only like bull case for the Packers is that you like
Starting point is 00:44:22 absolutely believe in LaFleur. So I would touch briefly on the Thursday night football before we wrap unless there's something else that you want to highlight Conor's entering the game on the board side total matchup base that you want to touch on no I think I think we keep rolling Ed you got anything before we touch on Thursday night no I mean I will say like I like the Packers receiving core like it's young yep they're good and there there's some data that matt lafleur schemes guys open um out there that the packers people will tell you about not that i just trust them but you know they'll tell you about you know there's data to suggest how
Starting point is 00:44:56 good matt lafleur schemes are um and i don't know like i mean personally for me and maybe i'm just being a little too quantitative about it like like I'm not betting this side. Maybe I should because I do like Anthony Richardson. But it's just one of these things. It's hard for me to put a database number on this game, right? I mean, on my side, I was just like, look, seven should be the maximum adjustment. Let's go with that.
Starting point is 00:45:26 That Anthony Richardson touchdown pass, guys. Oh, man. He didn't even step into it. He was stepping sideways. I mean, just bonkers. I mean, obviously, that's just, you know, that's a highlight reel throw. You know, you're going to be able to move the chains, intermediate throws and stuff like that. But, man, to be able to, the athleticism and arm to do that in while taking one absolutely on the chin
Starting point is 00:45:45 was uh definitely some soft core football porn for sure yeah um last thing i want to add to what do you think that they post assuming malik will starts what do you think that is over under passing here to us for reference the last time he started it was 152 and got that down to like 144 something like that um which is in my that's the lowest that i can remember ever like for any quarterback starting quarterback in the nfl um since i've been betting props which is i guess not that long in the holistic thing but you know obviously for a while so well it won't matter yet but the colts lost juju brents for the season at corner which is a problem for them considering that cornerback room was already pretty thin they really needed him to
Starting point is 00:46:31 be like the alpha on the outside this season uh now he's lost for the season so i don't know that malik willis is the guy to take advantage of that but i do think it ends up being problematic for the colts moving forward but i mean you said right. You list off the previous box scores. He hasn't topped a hundred in any game. Correct. No, nope. 99, 80 and 55 passing.
Starting point is 00:46:49 Yeah. I mean, it's definitely going to open above a hundred. So it'll, it'll probably be like one 50 again. I mean, there's like what I'd said, like,
Starting point is 00:46:57 you know, there's some confidence that maybe the Packers can scheme them. Give me is, I mean, like it's possible. I mean, I don't know. I just have a tough time with it that's something i'm probably not going to bet um even though i love betting the bad quarterback
Starting point is 00:47:10 unders yeah i take completions under because you can't you take yourself out of any like yak that could kill you i mean i know you're still going to take yards under but i think completions under is probably the better look but yeah well i'm sure you've been refreshing the screen uh all day waiting for that to pop just in case oh yeah oh yeah yeah all right thursday night football good one uh bills on the road in miami uh this is miami two and a half uh total 48 and a half 49 these early season games in miami are a little tricky at least it's at nighttime because obviously the you know design of the stadium where that sun beats down on you on the visitor sideline is mitigated a little bit here because you know you'll be playing uh on the east coast in the dark but uh josh allen
Starting point is 00:47:53 dinged up hands seems like he's going to be okay injury report on the miami side is not great but these games have definitely been interesting over the last couple years what are your thoughts on bill's dolphins this was the second spread that didn't make sense to me this week. I have the Bill's favorite on the road. And again, we talked about how maybe Arizona got a little bit of a bump from what happened last week. And that's why we're seeing the number that we're seeing in the Rams at Arizona. I think maybe the markets have downgraded on Buffalo a little bit because of that game. And I've already kind of made the case that I think that's not the right thing to do.
Starting point is 00:48:33 I think Buffalo is good, and I think they are a Super Bowl contender. You know, Teron Johnson, the cornerback, is out. He will not play in this game, so that obviously is not good. And they still have two pretty strong corners in Benford and Douglas, but it looks like they're going to a second-year guy who hasn't played much in the slot. Cam Lewis should be in the slot. And look, Miami's offense is going to be great. It's a challenge to see what is going to happen on that side of the ball. But look, Miami's defense I still have a lot of questions about,
Starting point is 00:49:14 and this is a team that is still really dealing with kind of the aftermath of some injuries. So Jalen Phillips played last week, but he's actually listed as questionable. He blew out his Achilles last year and now he's questionable because of his Achilles. So that, that doesn't seem particularly good. Still no Bradley Chubb. And Jalen Ramsey has been a great cornerback in this league. He came back halfway through the season last year and had a very respectable PFF grade of 65 when he came back. You know, that's good.
Starting point is 00:49:40 So average is about 60. And, you know, you would love to have a team with with guys having 65 for Jalen Ramsey. That was a career low. So, you know, what are they getting on that side of the ball? And, you know, when when the preseason wisdom of crowds model kind of, you know, chewed through everything, Miami ended up 12th. So great offense. But enough questions about that defense that they're not putting them. You know, it's a it's a borderline playoff team for for the model uh i just don't think i can get off of that right now i think i think the bill should be favored i sent this out to members a little bit earlier today i do like bills plus two and a half is that still available or is it two and a half yeah yeah yeah yeah across the board minus 110s out there too so you're yeah you're absolutely fine
Starting point is 00:50:25 yeah i mean connor we touched on this a little bit in our afc preview too like miami spent along the offensive line so i think the thought process is that it's a much improved offensive line i think they just spent along the offensive line like robert hunt they gave him money like he's an elite guard he's not not an elite guard. Again, last week, Miami had the lowest yards created before contact in the league. And they have some dynamic running backs that do a pretty damn good job at avoiding contact before they get the defenders in them. And that's kind of the strength of the defensive line for the Bills as well. Up front played, Greg Russo played. His brains out last week was awesome. Three sacks. Ed Oliver is the man. I
Starting point is 00:51:04 think you're going to see some good steps there. The Teron Johnson thing in the slot is a problem, but I'm feeling like a nice little Wong teaser here with the bills and Rams. Some of the games that Ed, those are kind of the best in the spot to one and a half on the Rams. We can take that out to seven and a half and we can get the bills out to eight and a half here too. Unless you have a better thought of the dolphins.
Starting point is 00:51:23 I know you would like to be a part of the two and on group. I am part of the two and on group, but it's, you know, my two and on membership I think is kind of running out here. Expired? Yeah, it's recently expired. I'm up for renewal. We'll see if I renew my card here as the season develops. No, but it's like, I think in this game specifically,
Starting point is 00:51:43 I've been thinking about this a lot. Raheem Mostert announced out, Devin A-chain, limited participant. I think they were going to see a lot of A-chain in the receiving game. I don't think we're going to see him as like the primary early down runner. I think Jeff Wilson is going to start, but I think that they, kind of like we saw from the Rams in a sense, like we're going to see a lot of short passes and quicker passes in this game instead of a running game um and so how that develops and how this plays in the game i'm not entirely sure that's just like kind of how my thought process is forming of like how they how anticipating how they're going to game plan without you know a guy like raheem mostar who's capable of a little bit more you know i guess i don't know between the tackles running if they
Starting point is 00:52:23 want to do that which again they don't really do that a ton as is, but like easily as capable of with sanding that, whereas I don't think that they're going to run HN like, you know, right up the middle of a bunch. So I don't know. I think that probably, you know, plus two and a half makes a lot of sense here. I think that again, this Bill's office is still figuring a lot of stuff out about itself. I mean, Matt Collins is like a near full-time player. Uh, Keon Coleman played way better than I think most people anticipated. Khalil Shakir, you know, is again, just is what Khalil Shakir is. Just kind of like a slot guy. He's able to get open occasionally on the outside as well.
Starting point is 00:52:52 And then Curtis Samuel played like nine snaps last week. Who's recovering from a turf toe injury, but I don't think he plays much on a short week, like ramp up. I think the week after this, he'll probably have a bigger role. But how does that all fit in? I think they're after this, he'll probably have a bigger role. Um, but how does that all fit in? I think they're still trying to kind of figure that whole thing out here with, without Josh Allen, having a reliable guy on a, you know, play to play basis. Whereas Dalton Kincaid could be that guy, but he was like double, triple covered a lot last week. And
Starting point is 00:53:17 I think that was obviously part of the game plan because he, again, is there pretty much only reliable, you know, pass catcher, I say, in the short to intermediate at this point. So I think I would play the Bills. It's not something I love, but I think it's probably the right side. I wrote up the lookaheads here last week. Total was 51.5, which felt really high. The market's obviously corrected a little bit. It still feels a little high, especially if the Bills can run the football
Starting point is 00:53:44 or depending on the quick short passing game, that still feels a little high uh especially if my you know the bills can run the football or um depending on these quick short passing game that still feels a lie though it's obviously hard to do when you've you've lost two two and a half points based off of where you were last week but uh yeah that's i think uh yeah i think ed's talked me into a nice little nice little long teaser here that i feel pretty i love that idea when you mentioned i was like that those are like the two games i like the most this week and they're the ones that kind of fit the best too on the spot i mean obviously we're dealing with high totals so that's not great like in terms of where you want to be with long teasers but you know feeling like those are probably flipped even based on your numbers we'll probably have the wrong team favored feel a little bit better about
Starting point is 00:54:20 it um i i like that as well i'll be playing that just for you know for the brand obviously but then i got to uh mention here i was looking into it more giants commanders i mean this is like you know a toilet bowl right now but i'm i'm gonna i'm gonna be betting the giants money line here which sounds ridiculous but um we talked about it in the preseason about this commander's team about how we're like hey like if unless jayden daniel is rg3 like cliff kingsbury has been a terrible coach for like six years even at usc was bad and then dan quinn we don't weren't sure was a good coach their offensive line sucks they're you know like the scheme bad team i didn't really like all that much either um and again i know the giants are terrible but um i want to buy them more than I want
Starting point is 00:55:05 to buy the commanders here. So I'm going to be playing them a little bit here just because I want to keep fading the commanders. And I don't think it's, it might be the last time that the commanders are favored all season, to be honest, uh, in this spot. Just take Malik neighbors ladders, just call it a day. Just all of it, man. I mean, it's just all of it.
Starting point is 00:55:22 It's, uh, I just want to be able to tweet out like how much of a donkey cliff Kingsbury is. Cause I mean, that was just like, it's just all of it man i mean it's just all of it uh and i just want to be able to tweet out like how much of a donkey cliff kingsbury is because i mean that was just like it's just all the same and it's now like worse players like i mean it's all the same as it was in arizona with like seven eight screens a bunch of scrambles like then he misses the one deep shot to mclaurin like it's really bad the only problem is here is dan quinn it's not quite brian flores in from a schematic standpoint of course it's kind of his own dude but uh danny jones gonna get a lot of man looks he's gonna get a lot of second level pressure and that's not gone very well for daniel jones did not go well last week uh second level pressure got to him a ton that'd be my only concern but um you know
Starting point is 00:56:04 it's very easy to find concerns on the commander side as well. So, and what's your number on the giants commanders? My number is gosh, I've got Washington by about three. I do know that a prominent NFL service like the Giants here. Okay. There you go, Connor.
Starting point is 00:56:30 There you go, Connor. I'm with the Sharps. Let's go. You're definitely with the Sharps. All right. That wraps it up, Ed. I just could not appreciate it more. Again, folks need to go over to thepowerrank.com find ed on
Starting point is 00:56:46 twitter at the power rank and again don't forget to go over to spotify or go over to site it was thepowerrank.us you said ed yeah that's a url that'll take you to the site the page on the site go to site find that podcast get a little bit of intro to uh you know learn about his process a little bit 60 minute guide to the 2024 football season. Appreciate it very much. Again, come back. Move the Line will be again on Friday. Prop drop show. Sounds like Connor might have some elite neighbors
Starting point is 00:57:13 props in there, some other stuff to go on. I'll be back 3 p.m. Eastern. Again, 444 YouTube channel. Move the Line, wherever you find podcasts. For Connor and Ed, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.

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