Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 3 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: September 18, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 3! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 3 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU  

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan here as always joined by Connor Allen to talk NFL sides and totals for week three. Already three weeks and stuff flies by. We cannot wait for you to get here and then it's here. Obviously you're like what the heck happened? We're already in October. We're getting close. Excited to unpack things today. Joined by our friend of the show, the first time on the program. Find him over at Football Guys wearing many hats, including today, literally a Football Guys hat. It is our friend Dave Kluge.

Dave, excited to have you on. What's going on, buddy? Not too much. Appreciate it, man. Always fun talking ball. And like you said, the season flies by. It's crazy that we're coming up on week three already like it it goes by in the blink of an eye every single year every year i think i'm ready for it and before i know it christmas is around the corner and we're getting ready for week 17 and it happens quick i feel like a lot of people are brother in the

space like you know just the moan the drags and and drudges of what football season brings in terms of, you know, content and all that stuff. I get like to hold on to it when it's gone. I feel like, yeah, I mean, it's nice to get like a little bit of a breather. I don't know. I feel like I wear so many different hats. No actual breather when football season ends. I was mad that we don't get to talk about football anymore.

So like, I wouldn't have it any other way. Like I'm soaking up every moment of the NFL season. I'm with you. I talked to so many other people that are doing this and they're just like it seems like they're not excited that football is here they're like oh there's so much work and i don't know man i'm on the opposite end of the spectrum like i could talk actual football like i could only do so much off-season talk like just rehashing the same talking points non-stop for seven months and then we get actual football here like this is the best time of the year in my opinion stuck ball finally yeah jeff chiming in early in the chat um comments on

dave's uh background with a raven's jersey and a bear's helmet background uh there must be a uh factory of sadness i don't know it's been pretty good i mean backing lamar jackson our current defending league MVP. I'm not ready to give up on the Bears quite yet. Maybe we'll get to that here in the show, but it can't be that sad here. Jeff, you're a factory of sadness when your kickers go under. There's always been kicker props with us all the time, trying to force us down, giving us his medicine, his prop angle. But no, it could be worse, right?

All right, gentlemen. I want to talk a little bit off the top before we jump into week three specifics here. I want to remind folks, though, there are two episodes of Move Align each week. This is Wednesday's Game by Game preview. Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern, Connor, myself, John Hyslop, on Prop Drop, our favorite hour of the week,

getting into the weeds. Love your questions. You guys are always very active in that chat. Don't forget to subscribe, whether here on the 444Bets YouTube channel or move the line wherever you find podcasts. You want to get all the official plays, all the content that we're doing.

This season at 444 can be had with the betting subscription. Again, if you're still playing season long, DFS, Pick'em Leagues, whatever you're doing, all that's going to be part of the betting subscription as well. 444.com slash plans. Lots of different partners too. You can find different ways there. There's actually a tab if you go over to 444.com

and find out how to get a free subscription. Lots of different cheap ways to get access to that too. If you have any questions, feel free to hit us up directly. Connor and myself will be happy to help you out. It's definitely what you want to get though. Betting Sub gets you access to everything. Promo code trophy, still available out there. $10 first month. So you just want to try us out for a little bit, see if it's your thing, get the betting sub, get in the discord, get all the official plays,

promo code trophy for just 10 bucks. Great way to get started. All right. Some, you know, obviously some very key normal talking points that we have at this time of year around how teams start. You know, we obviously have small Sabre Theater. We just get two games, and who you play in those two games matter. The overall question at the very, very top here, Connor, 0-2. Is 0-2 a death sentence in terms of being able to advance the playoffs, or are there any 0-2 teams that you think are still a team we maybe need to be looking in terms of being able to advance the playoffs or are there any 0-2 teams that you think are still a team we maybe need to be looking in terms of you to make the playoff markets or

anything like that talk to me about 0-2 and what your thoughts are on that kind of general narrative that we have here heading into week three yeah i believe since uh in the last four years we're looking at six percent of teams who started off 0-2 making the playoffs uh including last year we had houston as one of them and then cincy in 2022 um and then if we look at the current o and t to landscape like i mean in my opinion i don't think that we need to like necessarily blanket like that sentence we can see what teams like are real or like could be real broncos o and two i mean they're not making the playoffs ravens bangles maybe titans probably not jags probably not colts maybe giants probably not i mean like random rams and panthers so like rams are just dead i mean they're like got no one i mean brutal

and then the panthers i mean again no shot they would like are on pace to be one of the worst teams in nfl history scoring wise so um like i think from that list you're looking at ravens bangles maybe colts like and then the rest. Yeah, of course, no shot. So that's kind of like where I'm at with those teams. Yeah. I mean, especially the NFC teams in particular. I mean, I know some people were buzzy on the Rams, Dave, you know, I don't think Connor and I were in on the Rams necessarily giants Panthers kind of dead on arrival. Anyway, do you want to make the case for any other team that you think here maybe still has an outside shot in terms of making the playoffs and Owen too? Yeah. So Raven's the Ravens and the Bengals, the two that Connor talked about.

I mean, the Bengals, this is the third straight year that they've started 0-2. And last year, you know, they dealt with all the injuries that kind of derailed their entire season. But this is just a team, for whatever reason, always starts slow out the gate, so I'm not concerned about them too much. Connor, I think you hit it on the head. Like, you know, we know what teams are good, and we know it's teams that aren't.

And we can't look at two games and draw too much of a conclusion for how their season is going to finish. Like, yeah, the Broncos suck and they're 0-2. And I don't think anybody's surprised by that. They're probably not going to be in the playoff hunt. But the Ravens could quickly get back to 500 over the next two weeks. And then we're looking at them. I don't know. Maybe you guys can dig a little bit deeper than me.

But the only team I can remember ever starting 0-2 and winning the Super Bowl was 2001. The Patriots did it so i mean like if those are the expectations winning the super bowl it's tough yeah not a lot of teams are going to do it but um we've seen two teams in the last two years start off oh and two and make the playoffs and wouldn't surprise me to see the ravens do it again this year i always think of like uh baseball at the start of the baseball season so if you were to go like you guys starts the season, I don't want to go too long in baseball, but, you know, say you go, you start the season as a hitter and you go 0 for 12 or whatever for, like, the first series. And, like, everyone makes a huge deal of it, especially if you're good

and you're expected to, like, contribute and you just, you know, got some, you know, golden sombrero for four straight games or whatever. Obviously, you go 0 for 12 in the middle of July, no one knows about it right it's just like whatever and it kind of happened right so like and i've seen some numbers floating around too you know oh and two yeah not great it's basically like losing back-to-back games at any point in the season kind of makes it very hard for you to make the playoffs and that's something that you know again we don't have that we are just going to be prisoners of the moment it's kind

of an easy talking point but uh i think you guys make a good point. Currently, the best odds for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs are both the Ravens and the Bengals. They are still minus 145 on DraftKings to make the playoffs. You can get them to miss the playoffs at plus 120. I have some interest in one of those teams to miss the playoffs, but that was a team that I didn't think was going to make the playoffs to begin with, and that's the Ravens. Maybe we'll talk about that a little bit more uh we get to that matchup uh is there a pre-season take dave that you would like to walk back player related team related uh anything

that's happened off of two weeks where you're like man you know what i would uh i like to get a mulligan on that one i didn't even need two weeks it was about halfway through week one that i was already uh regretting my anti jayayden Reed take. And you know, Jayden Reed, I know he's a talented player, but you were looking at it like he was purely a slot player. And last year, the Green Bay Packers were only running three wide receiver personnel and about 40 to 45% of their snaps. So we were looking at Jayden Reed, you know, in fantasy, he was getting drafted high, his props were really high, and I just didn't really see it. But what I didn't expect was that the Packers were just going to completely switch up their

base personnel. And now they operate out of 11 personnel as their base package, which means more opportunities for Jaden Reed. He still isn't able to get on the field for two wide receiver sets, but they're almost exclusively running three wide receiver sets now. So it doesn't matter. So I'm kind of kicking myself because that's something I try to do as much as possible is kind of see changes in base personnel

packages based on what we saw the year before. And I saw it with the Ravens, you know, I expected them to switch to base 12 personnel and we saw that. Um, but for some reason I just didn't read the tea leaves right with the Packers. So I was actually on JJ Zacharyson show earlier this off season, kind of spit my anti-Jayden read take. And I think he asked me a question that I probably should have thought about a little bit more. He said, who do you think is the most talented wide receiver on the Packers? I said, well, I think the most talented guy is Jayden Reed, but he can only do one thing out of the slot. He's so one-dimensional that I can't buy into it. And I should have just seen the writing on the wall that a wildly talented young player,

they were going to do whatever they could to get him the ball, even if it meant changing up their base package a little bit. So that's one that I almost immediately see in Jaden Reed. I believe he had two touchdowns and another called back. That was tough to see as somebody who really wasn't in on Jaden Reed this offseason. Get bailed out a little bit with another Malik Willis start, perhaps. Maybe. Maybe not. I mean, Jordan loved practicing in maybe a limited fashion or whatever today.

So, Connor, how about you? Anything you want to walk back? Yeah, first off, shout out Jaden Reed, a Naperville central alum. So respect. And, but I, I mean, I have way too many already at two weeks in, but we'll go with I would be so rich right now. If Gus Edwards is doing what JK Dobbins is doing. I mean, my God, like this is egregious. Apparently in hindsight, I was very much on, I mean, JK Dobbins is doing something mean my god like this is uh egregious apparently in hindsight i was very much on i mean jk dobbins is doing something that no running back has ever done now um and he recovered from multi-ligament injury prior uh and now he's coming back achilles like year one just absolutely shredding we'll see how long it can last i mean james robinson did it for like four or five weeks

on the jags a couple years ago and then just like was the worst running back in the league. I have like week seven on and just couldn't even make it through the whole season. So again, call me a skeptical last little year, but maybe that's just me clutching at my pearls, you know, kind of like holding on to dear hope that I'm not entirely wrong,

but I like a team-based take. I thought that the Broncos offense could be okay. And they are not okay. They are very much not good right now. Bo Nix is not good. The passing game is not working. Marvin Mims can't see the field. Julian McLaughlin is not being used in the passing game enough.

The defense, the run defense still sucks. Patrick Sertan is basically their only good player on defense. It's just bad. It's not good. And I'm ashamed that I thought that their offense at least could be okay it's like i was buying it on the panthers man i i thought david now going to be the savior of carolina and that he turned bryce young into alabama bryce young and i don't know that's uh i always try to take my misses try to like learn something from it

and i think what i'm gonna do going forward because i've fallen for this trap multiple years you know betting on bad defenses that i think can take that or bad teams that I think can take that step forward. And that just more often than not ends up being a losing bet. You know, it takes years for teams to kind of rebuild and reshape who they are. And it's very rare that you see a terrible team like the Broncos or the Panthers just immediately turn it around the year after. Yeah, that's a big ask. I was going to make the Broncos or the panthers just immediately turn it around the year after yeah that's a big guest i was gonna make the broncos note connor and i'm like i think connor might have the broncos notes uh so we can we can save that one too uh how about the pats that's aren't terrible they're not

maybe not the worst team in the league we thought they were gonna be the worst team in league i couldn't find the win on the schedule i thought we might get into like you know like week nine week ten where we're finding a win and they got one on the board they were feisty against what i think is a really good seahawks team last week too they continue to have a ton of injuries they lose joan bentley very early in that game too they continue to have cluster injuries i don't know how it's happening don't think it's a good football team i still think they probably go under their win total but i think they're going to be feisty at least, even though Hunter Henry is getting 60% target per outrun.

It doesn't seem sustainable in terms of an offensive ceiling for this team, but they're at least, I think, feels like still well-coached and prepared and better. And also maybe the Titans. I was kind of poo-pooing the Titans defense. I still think they're a little thin, but if they stay healthy on the outside, I think they can hold up past Russia solid.

Again, coaching there might be a thing too where you have, again, part of the Mike McDonald tree running that defense. And there's, I think, just, again, I don't want to buy into anything that guy is touching, and that's probably part of the Titans revival too. So we'll see if that's more Bears-related, what they do with the Chicago in week one. Again, they also kind of kept the Jets kind of in control last week too.

So I'm interested to see what happens with the Titans. How about is there like a new take, Connor, that you're ready to cement after two weeks? You've seen two weeks of stuff and you're like, hey, this is a thing. Caught me off guard. Again, kind of a follow-up to what we had with the last question, but anything you have here real quick? Yeah, I mean, well, one, the Dolphins are just completely toast without Tua.

I mean, it's Jover. I mean, it's just like, this is it. You know, we saw Skyler Thompson. It wasn't pretty. You know, even Mike McDaniel wasn't able to make it work. I mean, he was barely able to make it work with Tua in the early goings of the season, and I think things are kind of falling down earlier.

Probably see a ton of Devin Achan. I mean, they talked about it earlier, like, Hey, we're just going to keep feeding him. Like there was a case to be made for him to get more touches. And he was already seeing an insane amount of work on a short week coming off of an injury. I mean, this guy's going to see like 25 touches a game now. So wheels up for Devon HN, even a bad offense. And then another one, the Vikings defense is continued to surprise plays really well. Brian Flores is making the most out of a unit that i don't think necessarily super talent on paper but his scheming and blitz rates are through the roof so um you know it's good defense at this point yeah they just do things that no one else does and they're hard to to game plan for what do you got dave

anything in this category yeah player related um i'm gonna put rashi rice into a you know just a top 10 wide receiver in the nfl whether it's for his weekly props or whatever it is i mean like this guy has just been balling and i think there are a lot of questions about his limitations what he could do last year running almost exclusively slants he had the second lowest a dot in the nfl last year behind only cadareus tony we've seen that a dot bump up he's pulling over 36 percent or over 30 percent target share second in the lead in yards after the catch. Fourth in the league in yards per route run.

Seventh in the EPA. So it's one of those things where I think a lot of people are just thinking that he's a fluky player who's getting scheme touches. But last week in week two, we saw him getting some of that usage that we saw at SMU where he was running go routes and making contested catches. So it's kind of a, it reminds me of a Montero St. Brown, a guy who early in his career had a lot of limitations and they had to skeep up touches to get the ball in his hands but now we're seeing him in year two take that step forward as a more uh well-rounded player so i think that's you know for for me i'm just looking at rashi rice as a locked and loaded top 10 wide receiver going forward every week i love it yeah the injuries that broke his way too obviously with hollywood outs and you know kind of learning curve obviously we'd expect for any rookie with xavier worthy or two maybe the slowly

demise of uh travis kelsey finally started to happen but yeah if you can win on the perimeter we saw last week that's definitely opening up a whole new ceiling for rishi rice uh for me how about all nepo babies are not created equal uh it seems like clint kubiak is maybe the real deal now again that could be something you don't really get a lot of credit for picking on the Panthers like they did. But they went into Dallas. That team had 17 pressures in week one against the Browns, and they have a really poor offensive line.

We thought it was going to be a problem, and they found a way to make things really entangled up front, give David Carr a ton of time, pre-stab motion, play action, all the stuff you've read about a ton this week. It seems to be something that maybe there's some sticking points. Again, obviously there's the old school cocoon. We thought, hey, like Kingsbury, you know, like he's just, Cliff is just here because, you know,

Gary Kubiak's been in the league forever, part of the old Shanahan tree. And like Kubiak is with the younger Shanahan last year too, seems to be some learnings there that might be voting pretty well for New Orleans, the division that we think is probably pretty wide open there, Connor. Yeah. I mean, we'll, we'll talk about the game specifically. Cause there's a lot of good notes I think coming up. So we'll touch on that.

Our last take that you're workshopping, maybe a little too early, maybe a little too hot, but we're gonna put it out there for the people. Uh, Connor, anything you got for, uh, for us here? Yeah. Uh, I added a little bit of Malik neighbors to lead the NFL in receiving yards. It's like 25 to one. He's like 50 yards off only. I mean, Nico Collins obviously is leading right now because he's shredded the first

two weeks, but I think there's going to be some games where he doesn't have 120 yards. Uh, probably, you know, like, uh, so whereas Malik neighbors saw 18 targets last week, you still use an emotion, a bunch, maybe it was just him shredding, you know, the future salesman corners of, uh, Washington. But I mean, he's, he's, I think he's the real deal. Like I think as him and Daniel Jones continue to click more, like it's just going to be 10 plus targets a game and bad game script where they're just throwing the basically the entire half because their defense is not very good either so it's like one of those things that i want to be ahead of the curve on on malik neighbors and i think we were for like props

we bet on in most rookie receiving yards which barbara harrison looks like he's going to make that a little more interesting at this point but um you know i'm looking i want more like upside and alt exposure to league neighbors i think he think he's the real deal. I can't wait to buy insurance from Benjamin St. Juice at some point down the line. It might happen soon. Dave, what do you got here? Anything that you're kind of workshopping take-wise? Yeah, I think we need to kind of revisit

how we look at running back age curves because you look at this offseason, everybody had just written off Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, James Conner, essentially for dead, whether it was in fantasy drafts or in the prop market, like there were very low expectations for all these guys and they all look great. So I think that what we need to do when kind of looking at running backs, whether they're getting up there in age or not. Yeah, I know the data says that like at age 25, we start to see running backs trend down in production.

But I went back to look at all of these guys that I just mentioned to see like has there been any signs of regression in the efficiency department and there hasn't been over the last couple of years and i think people are just so programmed and conditioned to believe that when a running back turns 25 26 27 it's the end of the road for them but i think these guys that have um elite production profiles in the nfl elite prospect profiles elite athleticism they can drag that out a little bit further. Now, I know a lot of people are going to point to Christian McCaffrey. I think his injury is kind of fluky. I don't know if that's a sign of wear and tear or age or anything.

And then Derrick Henry is the other guy who hasn't looked great this year. We can look back at the last three years that he has started to show that down tick inefficiency. We haven't seen it from these other guys. And we just assume that because they're old, they can't play football anymore. So I think we need to start looking at some of these highly drafted, productive veteran running backs at a different age curve than we look at the rest.

That's a really good point. And we've seen it with quarterbacks and obviously the way that they, you know, take impact is very different than a running back. But it makes sense with just all the advancements that positively impacted quarterbacks that put that time in. Obviously, Tom Brady is the greatest example, but it should have a trickle-down effect slowly to increase that aging curve for other positions as well.

So good call out there. Last for me, I was in early. Obviously, any time I had a chance to talk Aiden Hutchinson, this offseason, we did. Defensive player of the year, over on his sack number as one of my biggest future, this offseason, we did. Defensive player of the year over on his sack number as one of my biggest future positions this offseason. I still think plus 475 on seizures for defensive player of the year is a really good look, but I'm going to give you a hot take.

That's not a hot take. God just had five sacks last week. We're going to go down the board a little bit. 201, defensive player of the year, Sprinkle. Now look, Connor's already shaking his head. And it's like 201. This has kind of been an edge defensive player of the year, right? So not MVP.

Defensive player of the year. Not Aiden Hutchinson. Oh, okay. I was wondering. What am I missing here? I'm staying in the defensive player of the year setting. I apologize. Boye Mafe from Seattle. I was wondering. What am I missing here? I'm staying in the defensive player of the year setting. I apologize.

Boye Mafe from Seattle. Currently 201 on FanDuel to go defensive player of the year. I was way above him on IDP to start the season. Again, it's just this Mike McDonald stuff that I believe in, and it's already paying off. He actually leads all edge rushers in quarterback pressures, one more than Hutchinson. He's second in quick pressure rate, which you can get over now,

which is awesome, over at NextGenStats. Again, if you think this team continues to win football games, threatens San Francisco to win this division, and you get Boye Mafe 15, 16, 18 sacks up where the big dogs kind of hang sack wise um and this is again mcdonald last year took what uh kyle van noy and uh you know clowny and uh justin matabuki all these guys that are struggling a little bit this year all of a sudden and made these guys like 10 12 15 sack guys last year boy my face is legit in his third year here so that's kind of a little bit of a play if you think that san francisco is actually really in an issue with some of these cluster injuries

to win that division again i think that this is a better maybe longer shot that's not completely uncorrelated with seattle winning the division it's boy mafe at 201 to win defensive player of the year i like devin witherspoon in that mix as well but this has been a like you got to end up having like double digitdigit interceptions. Like this ends up being kind of a little bit of an edge rusher award these days, kind of like quarterback is more of an MVP award. So Mafia 201, a little bit of pizza money, a little sprinkle. I'm in.

I mean, I just bet at live show, 15 bucks to win three grand. Why not us? Why not, right? It's already – it's 100 on DraftKings. It's no offense. Show sponsor, DraftKings. Vandal's twice the price. So we're going to have to play it over already, it's a hundred on draft Kings. It's no offense show sponsor draft Kings, uh, vandals vandals twice the price.

So, uh, we have to play it over there, guys. Sorry. Uh, it's just, those are the rules. We've got to give the best of the number of the people.

So, yeah, I was at a, I was at a Cubs game yesterday and I tried betting Ian half dinger. Um, like, I mean,

I don't even bet baseball. They only have a 21 bucks. I was like, well, are you ever kidding me? I'm like, I don't even, I don't even know anything about baseball.

And he did it a dinger though. they knew i mean they you know like they knew actually you too it was wild it was uh i should have got i was too lazy to get up i was at the sports book too lazy to get up and actually put money into the kiosk and like get a slip and i was just like sitting there and i was like i'll just put it on my app no should have been more right should have been more oh man less than always anytime it wins high should have been why was it more aggressive on that one i really like that one malik willis under i should have done multiple mortgages not just oh my god yeah i know i told my wife i'm like i got this bet too but i really need connor to win this bet tomorrow because otherwise he's gonna he might have to sleep

on our couch for a few days so we were definitely pulling for malik willis under so he didn't have to explain to Maggie why that didn't get home. Yeah, that would have been rough. This Rando who sucks at football actually was good for this game. And he actually did play pretty well, to be fair. He did play pretty well. He did throw a lot. He did play well. But, you know, thankfully still well comfortably under his –

I mean, he shouldn't even have had 100 yards if Romeo Dobbs didn't, like, moss that one guy. Like, literally, he would have, like, 80 have like 80 passing yards but i mean guys were running wide open whenever they did throw the ball it was like it was it was good but whatever well he looks like he's not gonna start again unfortunately so no more unders yeah let's see about that one again wednesday report uh injury report a little early but we'll see as that shapes out and uh let's jump into some of the week three stuff uh one of the better games on the slate here has philadelphia coming off of a very disappointing fourth quarter there on monday night football uh in new orleans against the saints you can

shop this around a little bit depending on where you're at basically we're about you know uh 2.75 in the market there are threes out there there are two and a half so shop it around uh saints are favored 49 and a half is the total uh 49 out there on rivers as well if you have access to that and you have a lean here this is uh definitely an interesting game the line that we expected in the preseason or what we saw in look heads but uh again as we touched on there earlier kubiak is kind of the bell of the ball right now play action splits and all that stuff is really kind of revolutionizing what we kind of had a pretty stale offense with pete carmichael over the last couple of years they've been one

of the best third down teams even better they're really not getting the third down which is obviously a great indicator of an elite offense kind of you know revitalized alvin kamara here i think seeing and expanding the role of rashid shaheed has been kind of impactful and i think it's going to continue to open up things on the outside for Chris Olave, who I expect to continue to cook. And that could be a spot here. Eagles defense has really struggled. They are 29th in yards per drive and points per drive through two games.

Offense has sputtered, obviously, a little bit last week. Anytime you don't have A.J. Brown in the lineup there, Dave, it is impactful. What are your thoughts here on Eagles and Saints? You know, it's kind of crazy to me. Like Like I understand everything that you said about Clint Kubiak, what he has done and injected into this offense is impossible to ignore. Last year, you know, the Pete Carmichael offensive coordinator in New Orleans, they ran the lowest rate of motion of any team. And now they, I don't know, I didn't check after week two, but I saw after week one, they were leading the league in motion

in pre-snap motion. So it's tough to ignore that it is just a night and day difference here for the New Orleans Saints. But man, if we've already swung this hard after two weeks that we're starting to give points to Philadelphia, it's really hard for me not to take those points. Philadelphia still looks good. You know, they were a drop pass away from beating Atlanta. They already beat the Packers. I mean, this isn't a bad team by any means. I think the markets are overreacting a little bit to what we've seen through the Saints in the first two weeks.

I just am hesitant to just immediately say they're one of the best teams in the NFL. Despite looking like that, it's still the Saints. It's still Derek Carr. So for me, it might be a pretty simplistic take, but if I can get points on Philadelphia, I'm definitely taking those. Yeah. It's pretty interesting because if you would have told me that this was the line, like preseason, I would have been pretty surprised, I think. And this is like the ultimate one where you have to balance like your priors with like what we've seen through two weeks. And I think my priors were like, okay,

this Eagles offense should be significantly better. And I mean, I think they are better, you know, again, like Kellen Moore comes in, they're playing faster. The motion rates more Jalen hurts when there's been motion has been really, really strong without pressure. He's been really good issues when there's no motion or there's pressure on him. He's not been very good. And so those are some factors that I'm considering here.

Their pre-snap motion was incredible. Like between that and this Eagles or this Saints defense here, I mean, the Saints team is like not one that I necessarily want to get in the way of. So if I have to pick a side, it's probably the Eagles. Or if I have to pick a side, it's probably the Saints, to be honest. But I feel like I could just be totally overreacting in two weeks. the eagles or if i have to pick a side it's probably the saints to be honest but i feel like i could just be totally overreacting in two weeks um and at the same time this eagle secondary like i thought oh well they you know signed signed more players they added drafted two guys i'm like

their secondary has to be better this season and they basically just like picked up like right where they left off last year like virtually similar metrics not playing all that well and so that's kind of what's disappointing they've had four receptions wide receivers on throws 20 or more yards on field and six uh receivers that have gained 20 more yards which is some of the worst rates in the league so uh not great there so far now do we have any update i know uh injury reports haven't uh officially come out but it sounds like aj brown is going to be out again in this game and marshall latimore was looking like a game time decision last week but I get kind of nervous when somebody picks up a hamstring injury. So I think that's the big kind of questions for me in this game.

I don't expect to see A.J. Brown out there. And I don't expect to see Marshawn Lattimore either. So if the Saints are without Marshawn Lattimore, we could see another big day from Devonta Smith. I think that's really what it comes down to for me. Probably not going to see A.J. Brown, but if Marshawn Lattimore is out there, that'll change things up quite a bit for New Orleans.

I do believe that we got a partial practice from Marshawn Lattimore today. So I don't know what that means, but that's definitely something to monitor because I do think it matters quite a bit in what they do and how they can hide and move Devonta Smith around. Obviously, it's harder to hide him in the slot all game, you know,

without A.J. Brown out there too because you have to roll out some real jabronis on the outside that does not work quite as well. So, yeah, we'll see what happens there. But definitely want to monitor. I mean, look, there's a handful of Wong teasers on the card this week. A lot of teams I think are real interesting kind of around that number. And Philly baked out a little bit on the other side of that is a very interesting uh long teaser if things start to start to feel good about injury reports there or bad on the saints injury report

wise i think that's a pretty interesting line there too so i i still think that there's a bad offensive line there um and i think that that up front philadelphia can win and make and create some problems there that maybe the the cowboys weren't able to do now we have you know another we have more film right we have another week of film on what they're doing that helps the philadelphia versus what dallas had they i mean i thought i really liked too there was a great breakdown from uh hayden winks and josh norton like how they like max protect they've been like having like eight guys like behind the ball basically just having like two guys run around um like and i guess it's working for them i mean when you have that much time like it's usually helpful

like even against good pass rush so it's like essentially just mitigating some of that it's like the opposite of going five wide and trying to get open quickly and just praying which is essentially what the bears did you know all monday night or all sunday night so um i don't know i'm interested i would say cautiously optimistic but i don't like dave said like i don't want to overreact to be like oh the saints are just one of the best opposite league when like our priors were the opposite line sucks wider seaward depth is really thin derrick car is their car like there's you know a lot of other outs here for the saints to not be a team that's scoring 40 plus points every week. We've also got one thing that I haven't heard a lot of people talking about because he's, you know,

not the biggest name out there, but A.T. Perry has yet to play this year. And that's the one thing that's kind of missing from the Saints offense is having that X receiver. You know, right now we've got Rashid Shaheed and Chris Alabe who have very overlapping skill sets and they're great outside the numbers, but they don't really have a guy who's been great across the middle of the field. And that's something that A.T. they don't really have a guy who's been great across the middle of the field and that's something at perry can do so um a guy who's kind of been a disappointment through this point in his career so far but seeing how this saint's offense is operating now if they can add that into their offense then it's not crazy to think that this saint's offense that's been lighting it up for two straight weeks could actually get better yeah it's a good call um yeah they've been running a lot of two-receiver stuff too,

which is interesting to see. Again, part of their stuff is a little bit wonky because we had obviously a fourth quarter against Carolina that basically doesn't count, and almost the same exact thing against Dallas, right? So we'll get a better sample on them as we continue to move forward. Another game that I think maybe catches us off guard in terms of preseason expectations, Baltimore is on the road in Dallas.

You got a little bit of a short favorite this is moving a little bit there's some pick'ems out there uh baltimore's short short favorites in some spots there's a one one and a half is out there too most places are at minus one uh again touched on earlier a little bit personally was below market on both these teams coming in had both of them on the outside looking in in the playoff picture in our divisional preview series. Week three, I think some of the concerns we had are showing up for both teams. Ravens 0-2, loss on the road at Kansas City by a toe.

Not the end of the world. Getting blown out, kind of blowing a lead there. I mean, blown out, but like Gardner Minshew picked them apart. A bit more troubling. Baltimore does this every year. They seem to kind of play with their food and don't really put teams away. So like a big picture, like the, how this happens, but on the back, again, it's kind of, it gets magnified when it's week two, when you already

now are starting. Oh, and two there, the offensive line hasn't been great. Some defensive issues. Again, when you lose three coaches, that becomes pretty impactful. I think we're kind of already seeing that here already. And again, up front, when you can't really protect and you have one guy that can wreak havoc, like Max Crosby was able to do in the second half of that game last week, gives me a little bit of pause as we go into Dallas and you have Micah Parsons, you have DeMarcus Lawrence, you have some guys up front that can continue to exploit

the offensive line issues here. Dallas, obviously, not immune to. They got kind of buzzsawed at home last week here too. Connor, what are your thoughts on Ravens and Cowboys? Yeah, I think there's some misleading numbers through the first weeks. We look at their offense, their third and success rate, but 15th in EPA, you know, they've scored just 20, 23 points. And obviously because part of EPA is like, you know, actually scoring. And so that's, that's part of the issue, but on a per play basis, in terms of like staying on schedule, first downs like those numbers like the success rate number is encouraging and so i think that um you know holistically is pretty important and kind of

my mind means like don't overreact to them not necessarily playing awesome right off the rip uh and then defensively though like we said they're gonna get worse maybe drop to that like fringe top 10 range they're 26 in epa and 19th in success rate through two weeks that is and i mean one of those games it's the raiders you know like that's that's not exactly where we thought that they would be and are they that bad probably not but like that's certainly not a good start uh and then another side the cowboys defense here another like super wide split fourth and success rate defensively 20th in epa per play so it's like almost the opposite of what they were last year where they were really high in EPA because they had like what

five six pick sixes um and then but like on a per play basis they weren't very good so uh I almost think that they'll probably fall somewhere in the middle and probably be like more of a French top 10 defense instead of um you know the top five that we saw in both these units so I'm curious offensively what happens here this Cowboys offense too like i mean it's just cd lamb and a bunch of guys right now especially without jake ferguson like who moves the change consistently who else like helps here those are some of the issues that i see with this cowboys team and like have come to light here so i'm not sure that either of these teams are really well equipped to i guess neutralize the other at this point so for me it's kind of just a stay away, to be honest, in general.

But I am interested to see it because these are two teams, like you mentioned, we were a little lower on than market heading into the season. Yeah, that guy was supposed to be Brandon Cooks, Connor. That was supposed to be the number two guy there. And then he's eighth in the team in targets last week. Just seems like a weird utilization

that we've seen from him so far this season. But Ryan, you already said it. I mean, you know, I go back and I rewatch all the games and the first note that I have from that Baltimore game is all capitals I say why does Baltimore always play down to their competition like we've seen this almost every single year since Lamar Jackson's been in Baltimore like we see these games that are easily winnable and then they just rather than putting their foot down on the gas and finishing the game they just allow teams to kind of come back in the game and and hang around when they shouldn't so I'm almost at the point

where I just don't want to bet on any ravens games at all for that reason because they can hang with the best of them like we saw two weeks ago with kansas city and they can struggle against a team like las vegas so i don't really know what to expect from them this week um so connor i know you said it's kind of a stay away game that's sort of where i'm at as well um but i think that what we will see in this game, if we're trying to look at some props, you know, I think this sets up for another Isaiah Likely game. You know, we saw against Kansas City that when Kansas City was able to generate pressure on them, they just wanted to get the ball out of his, out of Lamar's hands as quickly as possible. They didn't want him staying in the

pocket. They didn't want to wait for the long developing routes downfield. It was just getting the ball to Justice Hill and getting the ball to Isaiah Likely in the flat. So seeing as how the strength right now for the Cowboys team is in their pass rush, I'm expecting to see a similar game plan from the Ravens where they're just going to set Lamar up in shotgun and let him get the ball to Justice Hill and Isaiah Likely as much as possible. I like that call, too. I think we need to see. I don't think we're shocked that Dallas has struggled to run the football.

They are generating the lowest rate of yards above expectation this season again leaning on a dusty dusty zeke elliott who like showed a little bit of pop at times for new england last year like again not like peak zeke but he was okay i think you've seen like he's yet to create a missed tackle um has like no runs over 10 yards like there's no explosiveness in that offense, and they're still kind of leaning on him too. So it kind of gets harder to do these things, even with a Ravens defense that I don't think is who we thought they were

or definitely not who they were last year. Start to play with one hand tied behind your back, and things get pretty hard. So I think that that's going to be an area where they're going to need to improve if they're going to have to prove me wrong and say that they're actually a playoff contender so um that's kind of where i'm at in this one so kind of a stay away i think maybe i'm under on the total though i do think both teams are gonna have to throw a lot and that kind of creates more scenarios where

i bring in more over variance i think too uh but kind of wait and see and i think it's an impactful one we kind of move forward off of week three into week four all right one that's going to be exciting to watch, another over game I think is going to be pretty interesting. Detroit is on the road in Arizona. Arizona's offense absolutely clicking right now. Just kind of going to be an over team all year long, it looks like. Right now we have Detroit minus three across the board,

though it's kind of a little bit of a light three. You're basically even odds there. 51.5 is the total. So kind of on the wrong side of a key three. You're basically even odds there. 51 and a half is the total. So kind of on the wrong side of a key number if you're looking to chase the over. Unless you think this game is absolutely blowing up, then it's on the right side of 54. So it kind of depends on what your thoughts are there.

But Arizona leads the league in yards per drive. They trail only New Orleans in points per drive. Kind of saw, I don't know, peak Kyler last week. Some absolute dimes against the Rams. We might end up kind of looking back and go dimes against the Rams or kind of like dimes against the Panthers. It doesn't really matter a lot currently with what's going on there. But again, some Kyler West plays, creating time in the pocket,

scramble, you know, creating space with his legs. I think we've always kind of been encouraged, at least last year, like Drew Petzig kind of seems like a guy that might be an interesting offensive mind here as we kind of move off of whatever Cliff was in the desert over the last handful of years and what Cliff is now in Washington, D.C. Not great, but people really want to believe in this Cardinals team. I just don't think the defense can hold up. Dave, what are your thoughts here on Lions and Cardinals? I think this is going to be a shootout, and I think anybody looking at these two teams is going to expect that to not so great defenses to very good offenses. And this is, you know, kind of similar

to the Baltimore or I'm sorry, the Philly New Orleans game that we were talking about earlier, where like, if you saw this line in the off season, you probably would have been a little bit surprised to see it as close as it is, but the Lions probably aren't as good as we thought they were going to be going into the season. And I think the Cardinals are much better than we expected them to be. I think this is going to be pretty close. You know, I'm seeing about two and a half, three points going to the Cardinals. And this is one where I'm OK going with the money line. I've seen that plus 125 plus 130 on some books.

I just think that Kyler Murray is a lot better than people realize. He was kind of playing with the hand tie behind his back with Cliff Kingsbury for the majority of his career. And now with this Jonathan Gannon drew Petzig offense, we're seeing him get a little bit more time. Um, uh, some, some better, uh, usage of the wide receivers where they're getting further downfield rather than just the five yard curls that we became accustomed to with this air rate attack.

And I don't think it's crazy to say that kyler murray now has the best supporting cast around him like you know he had uh prime deandre hopkins for a chunk of his career but nobody else really in that offense now we've got a jane uh james connor who hasn't slowed down whatsoever and is keeping defenses honest train mcbride and marvin harrison are both playing phenomenal football so far so this is one where i'm okay taking the points for arizona but i'll actually go with the money line. I expect Arizona to upset Detroit this week. Oh, nice. That's,

that's hot. I like it. Um, and I think part of that too, is like this lion secondary continuously in every office. I'm like, Oh, they're going to be better.

And they're just never better. Like they're just in, and they're, it just had, they haven't gotten any better. And we're looking at a team here when they haven't gotten pressure, have a lot of 72 and a half percent completion rates, seven and a half yards per attempt.

So it's really like very just pressure, like dependent on Aiden Hutchinson basically at this point. And their run defense is really good though. So like they have a couple of advantages here. You know, they've been allowing, I think it's like less than three yards per carry at this point to opposing running backs. So there's lions run defense should slow down James Connor.

But like if the Cardinals are game planning to, to go against that, like they can absolutely destroy this Lions team in the slot. And I think, you know, whether it's Greg Dortch, whether it's Trey McBride running over the middle, like I think either of those players are capable of winning, you know, a lot of middle areas. And then Marvin Harrison Jr. deep, like, I don't know if there's really a matchup on the Lions where like, oh, like this guy can fully cover Marvin Harrison Jr., um, I'm glad to see him pop off after last week, um, where he looked or week one where he did look slow. He still kind of looked slow, but obviously he was, uh, you know,

played a little bit faster than he did in week one. I mean, it was like, well, it's 16 miles an hour in week one. That's like, uh, you know, that's brutally slow. So excited to see that. I think you're right. This, this Arizona offense is fun in this new system with Kyler healthy. I mean, even last year we talked about in the off season, they were like 10th in EPA per play when Kyler came back and that was with a bad supporting cast. And like,

you know, without Mark busted me, you know, he was still recovering last year and still playing well. Yeah. And then, you know, we,

we, I talked about the, the older running backs earlier in the show and how we're like, we're too quick to write them off. James Connor, man. Like it, it blew my mind looking through like the two efficiency metrics that I care about

most for a running back are yards after contact per attempt and broken tackle rate like can you generate yards after contact and can you break tackles I think those are two important things for running backs last year James Connor set career highs in both of those metrics at 28 years old now he's 29 years old and he's putting up better numbers than he did even last year. So talk about these running backs just getting less efficient as the years go on, but somehow James Conner, at his most efficient year at age 28, now at age 29, is somehow even better than he was. So I get what you're saying, that it is a good run defense,

but James Conner is playing fantastic football right now, and he might still be able to chip away at this defense. Yeah, he's playing awesome right now. that's definitely definitely a good point there um i not in this game but i am curious like because you're talking about the running back age curve where do you lie on kareem hunt who just signed with the just signed with the chiefs 29 years old he's dust absolute dust and yeah all those metrics that i care about all the efficiency metrics he was terrible in last year and that's it i think when you start to see a trend over a few years of a player getting less and less efficient you want to take notice of it but a lot of these guys that we wrote off this offseason you know

the guys I mentioned Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, James Conner they weren't showing those trends and we wrote them off just because of their age Kareem Hunt is not only getting up there in age but he's also shown the downtick in efficiency. So that's a big red flag for me. Yeah, no, totally makes sense. Noon and anything on this lions Cardinals game before we hopped any other games that we like.

Oh, we got you on. We got you on mute. First meeting of the season. So that's perfect. It was, we were due, we were due. So anyways, we got you on. We got you on mute. First meet of the season. So that's perfect. It was, we were due. We were due. So anyways, well, I have two more other takes.

We can circle back to this Lions Cardinals game. You know, once Newton gets his tech, you know, tech going here, but one that I think is interesting, which I guess it depends on, on Jordan love here. We saw this total in the Packers Titans game go from 36 and a half now up to 38 as we're recording live. That's something to monitor. If Malik Willis is playing like this is a big time under game for me. We saw them run the ball a ton last week.

We saw them just basically dominant in the ground. And I'm not sure they're able to do the same thing here against the Titans. Like I think that they're going to be, have a tough time passing the ball as Titans defense is like top 10 in basically every metric at this point. And then, I mean, their running defense is a little better as well. So like, I think that it's going to be a tough game. And the Packers defense played the Colts really, really well outside of on the ground. So I think the Titans go run heavy and it's just going to be like a low scoring, really boring game.

Now, if Jordan Love plays, that obviously opens up, I think, a world of possibilities of this Packers offense scoring a little bit more, seeing something that the Titans haven't really seen yet, because obviously they've only played the Bears and the Jets. So again, we don't really know how good their offenses are. It's like one of those games where who they played, what their metrics are, that whole dilemma there. So that's probably one of my favorite other looks there that we're talking with hunter about our size and totals guy as well oh i think we still got some technical difficulties here ryan can't can't hear you um but i i'll take this you know one of the one of the things that jumped out to me this week that's kind of surprising is seeing the total in the los angeles pittsburgh game, Chargers and Steelers. The total has gone up from 33.5 to 36.5, and I don't know, Connor,

maybe you can try to shine some light on this for me. I mean, this is a game where I was thinking about taking the under when it opened up at 33.5, and now it just keeps moving up. Any idea why that line is moving in that direction? Because what we've seen from both of these offenses, the Chargers and the Steelers, is that they don't want to put the foot on the gas, that they want to try to just run the ball as much as possible and slow the clock down. And I'm expecting this to be one of those, you know, ugly games where we're looking at, you know, 13-10 finish, something like that.

You know, 13-19, something weird. Any idea why that line keeps moving up as the week goes on? Honestly, not really. I think that we're going to see probably, again, a ton of running on both sides. And this Chargers defense through two weeks, number one in EPA, number one in success rate. I mean, again, they've played against the Panthers and the Raiders.

So it's like, how much stock do you really put into that? But I do think it's just like interesting, worth noting. Like this team looks entirely different. Their run defense looks good. Their passives looks good. So I don't't know just a little bit different for us i think looking at this carter's team and i think now that we've seen two weeks of how arthur smith is going to use justin fields where he's going to put him on as short of a leash as possible and only let him throw outside of the numbers i think it's going to be easier for teams to start game planning around

that defensively so um that's one for me that jumps out as one that you know i'm i'm a okay taking the under there especially if he keeps moving in that direction yeah and then we also got the panthers raiders total moving up to 40 with the news of dalton which is hilarious it was so it opened this week raiders minus seven panthers uh and then the total was like 36 i think maybe 30 37 uh now we're up to 40, 41, 40 and a half. And Raiders are only four and a half to five point favorites. So they're saying basically Dalton is worth like a couple of points here through pretty key numbers. Any expectations about Dalton in his first game back?

The last time we saw him through for like 350, I think, randomly against the Seahawks, I believe. 58 pass attempts, I believe. 58 pass attempts in like 360 yards, which Bryce Young hasn't hit those numbers ever in his NFL career. So yeah, I think we're going to see a much more pass-happy attack here. And, you know, I mean, I'm not reinventing the wheel by saying this, but I think Deontay Johnson is now resuscitated and alive again

after just being dead through the first two weeks of the season. I think we see Deontay Johnson just get peppered with somewhere between 10 to 12 targets. But, man, how bad is it for Bryce Young that a 36-year-old Andy Dalton, who has started one game in the last two years, is making the line swing that much? Yeah. My audio is bad, but I think you can hear me. Is that better? There you are.

There you are. We got you back. Sorry. Tech guys over here. First Tech issue all year. I think the can hear me. Is that better? There you are. We got you back. Sorry. Tech guys over here. First tech issue all year. I think the divisional previews went well as well. They did. Definitely due for a couple per year.

We have to get it off the... It sounds like you're in an underwater prison, but we can hear you. The mic is being wonky. That's why I was trying to troubleshoot. You were hearing yourselves talk and you were hearing nothing. I'm with you. I think there's another game similar to what you said, Connor.

I'm interested to see what happens with the Chargers and Steelers. This is going to be one of those games where it's going to be in the fourth quarter when some of the other games are at the end of the second, like it's halftime. These both teams just want to win the football over and over again. We're looking at right now Steelers and Chargers 30th and 31st in pass rate over expectation. They're also first and second defensively in points per drive allowed.

So, like, the total is 35.5. I still think it's probably too high. You might have some maybe efficient passing games here, but, like, still 36 feels like a bridge too far for me with these teams right now. So, again, real low total. That's one that I like. I also really want to continue to buy the Seahawks. So Seahawks minus four, welcoming Skyler Thompson

and that Miami defense too, which is struggling. Again, the longest flight you can make staying in the continental U.S., going from Miami over to Seattle. It's a tough one, too. And I just think that the Seahawks pick up on them. So anything less than six I think is a nice number. And then I also want to pick on the Jags. So we continue to hold out hope for Jags to start 0-5, 15-1.

Future play on the road in Buffalo, 4.5. Still feels too light to me. So those are two of my favorite on the board this week. Still Buffalo at anything less than 6, I think, is a good look. Nice. I like that. That Jags future, I forgot about that. It got a little crazy, I feel like, in the offseason,

where my bet slips. I just have too many bets in the queue, too many bullets in the chamber. But all we need is one to land, and we're in a really good spot. All it takes is one. Cool. Jags is going to come down to week five in the Colts. That's the bet. So that was the whole point.

The thesis was like, hey, if we can get to week five and get a coin flip game against the Colts and you're basically paying me 15 to 1 to get it, I feel pretty good about it. Would you hedge? Probably. Probably a little bit. A little bit.

Like a reasonable amount. 80% of the way there. There's no reason not to hedge a little bit at that point. Cover the bet. Cover the ticket. Nothing else. for some of the way there there's there's no reason not to hedge a little bit at that point yeah it's coming to take it nothing else so yeah um what's my favorite looks here and a bunch of wonks connor bunch of walks i don't know if you look at the yeah i'll run through some of those real quick um so we have you know for those of you familiar wonk teasers um you know moving from below the three to above the seven essentially um so we're looking at bangles or vice versa. So bangles minus seven and a half to minus one and a half against Washington

Cowboys plus one and a half to two plus seven and a half against Baltimore Niners minus seven and a half to one and a half against the Rams Eagles plus two and a half to plus eight and a half against New Orleans chargers one and a half to seven and a half against Pittsburgh and then bears plus one and a half to plus seven half against Indy. Um, I really liked the chargers number. That's, I mean, maybe they lose, maybe they lose by three, maybe a touchdown. I mean, anything more than a touchdown seems like a stretch just given how we've talked about, they're going to play. Um, and I think both teams defenses are pretty solid. So it's just gonna be a low scoring, boring game. The variance is super tight with that.

Um, and so that's probably one of my favorites. I'm a little bit worried about jumping in front of the saints here. I mean, again, they just, I know he murdered the Cowboys, uh,

whose defense I think is probably better than the Eagles at this point. Uh, and so a little bit concerned about that long, to be honest, but like probably I would say chargers and bears are honestly my favorite just because I think that they can, the bears keep it close enough against Indy this bears defense we should talk about the bears before we leave because you know uh yeah Dave's a bears guy too um well I'll kick it I'll let Dave let you go first what are you where are you at on the bears right now because I have I

have thoughts as well so you know I think they got one of the best defenses in the league and we saw that last year as soon as Montez Sweat showed up in the picture you know I think a lot of people um you guys obviously watch the games and you understand context and all those sorts of things but a lot of people look at the Bears season as a whole and think that they're just kind of a middle of the pack defense but if you look at the steps that they made after adding Montez Sweat last year they went from a bad defense to one of the best in the league and that's spilling over into this year now they've got a healthy Kyler Gordon healthy Jaquan Brisker so I'm I want to continue betting on the best in the league and that's spilling over into this year now they've got a healthy kyler gordon healthy jaquan brisker so i'm i want to continue betting on the bears because the defense regardless of who they're playing is going to keep them in a lot of close games

um as far as caleb williams you know i don't know how much time we have here i could talk about caleb williams for a whole hour and i'm going to try not to um obviously it's concerning i think a lot of people expected him to just come out guns blazing week one like we saw last year from cj stroud but we gotta remember last year cj stroud got off to an oh and two start like he didn't look great his first couple of weeks like he showed some promise here but i think the silver lining there's two things that i kind of find in the silver line with caleb williams one he went from looking terrible in week one to kind of bad in week two and that's an upward progression and that's what we want to see from a rookie quarterback you know we don't need to be great right away they need to get better and we

saw him get better and the second thing is that in college his biggest uh fault was holding onto the ball too long bouncing out of the pocket too early trying to make plays with his legs and it seemed like one of the biggest talking points in bears camp was that they wanted to keep him in the pocket stepping up into pressure And he's doing that almost to the detriment of him and the team. He might be staying in the pocket a little bit too long when he should be bouncing out. But it's good to know that he is willing to get coached up on what were some of his weaknesses in college. So I know, you know, the national media is already calling him a bust and everybody's

already freaking out because of what they saw in a primetime Island game. But I'm trying to remain calm here it's two games into his nfl career he's shown progression he's shown that he's able to fix some of the problems that plagued him in college yeah no i like that take i think the next five games are massive because he draws the colts the rams the panthers the jaguars the commies and the cardinals defense i mean oh they're gonna cook dude you'd easily be five and two going i mean i could not be less concerned about kayla williams maybe that's naive i just i'm just not like i think we can look back i already touched on the titans i think the titans might be good the texans are a legit super bowl contender yeah right um the defense kept him in

that game he hasn't looked good they're averaging like three yards it's just really bad like all the metrics are terrible there's nothing that you're gonna find but i don't know i'm just not i'm not concerned i don't know where you at connor well my my only concern is that so a couple things this the scheme has been really disappointing and we saw d'amico ryan's blitz crazier rate and play man at a crazy rate i mean i don't know this guy's just like shane waldron's never played madden before get your guys in motion get get bunch of bets, like pick guys. Like what are we doing here? Like there was none of that. Like none of that. We have no short routes when we know that they're sending six or sending exactly five and you only got five guys blocking

no max protecting like they're the saints are doing. If you're not going to do that, like there's so many options and he's choosing to do screens to Gerald Everett with Deandre Carden or blocking or, you know, like getting Deandre, like to me, I'm like, what are we doing? Like, this is like more egregious than even the timeout shit. You know, like, I'm like, what is going on here? So I was watching that very frustrated. But that being said, I think you guys are right.

The Titans defense is probably pretty good. Texans defense we know is good. So like, I mean, again, this is like, it has to be at least competent against these next five teams. Otherwise, like, I'm not so – like, Shane Waldron just needs to be fired. I'm not worried about Caleb. He just needs to be – I'd take Luke Getze back at this point. Like, at least Luke Getze, when he played against Minnesota last year

and knew they were blitzing like crazy. Remember that game? It was something like 32 of 37 pass attempts were screens. Like, they just wanted to get the ball outside to avoid the blitz. And we knew that was coming last week and for whatever reason shane waldron just refused to adapt so strange it was so strange i don't know keaton allen is that was a problem but what you just listed off connor those are like five of the worst defenses of the league right yeah it's like yeah exactly a little bit you you know? Yeah. Again. Yeah. I just, I'm not concerned. Is it a playoff team?

Yeah. They're a fringe playoff team anyway. Coin flip, but like the season's not over because they lost, you know, to the Texans in a bad, bad way. Right. I mean, that's, Texans are going to kick the crap out of a lot of teams. What a lot of other people fail to realize too is like, I don't care about this year that much for the Bears at all.

Like they have built, they've got DJ Moore,ore roma dunes a cole comet all under contract through the entirety of kayla williams rookie contract like they they have a five-year plan here and the fact that people are freaking out two weeks into what should be a five-year plan is just uh you know that just kind of sums up how how fans react to football yeah and bears fans unfortunately uh as you can probably relate to are conditioned to feel like the sky is falling um just couldn't even believe that caleb williams could possibly be great because they've actually never experienced it in their life uh which is brutal for a you know very passionate fan base in uh you know city that absolutely loves the bears so hopefully they

can get it eventually so yeah i'm i'm in i don I don't know. The Bears are a great play this week. I think they are an interesting Wong. I probably, my two favorites would probably be, I like the Chargers one too, Connor, just to differentiate. I think the Bengals one and a half at home or one and a half against the commanders here. And then the same thing, the Niners one and a half against the Rams, what's going on with the Rams,

even though the Niners are struggling as well. Like I feel like they're still significantly better. So I think those are probably my, my chalky long favorites to get you under three. So, all right, Dave, appreciate it.

As always, people need to find, find you on Twitter. No, no. It's great. Where else can they find all your stuff? Yeah,

that's it. You can find me on Twitter at Dave Kalugi, where it's a lot of sarcastic and joke posts that go over people's heads. But really, just follow me at FootballGuys, YouTube.com slash at FootballGuysFantasy. That's where I got shows, articles, all that good stuff. I'm now exclusively at FootballGuys.com. As always, subscribe before you take off.

4 for 4 bets on YouTube. Move the Line podcast will be back on Friday for Prop Chop. For Connor and dave i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody