Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 3 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions

Episode Date: September 20, 2023

Unlock the best bets, odds, and predictions for Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season! Dive deep into expert analysis for the Eagles, Commanders, and more. Tune in to find out what impact Sam Howell, Jalen Hurts and the rest of the league's top stars have on betting odds line movement in Week 3. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the game, this guide has got you covered. Don't miss out on the ultimate insights for your Week 3 NFL betting strategy. Timestamps:0:00 Intro5:21 Falcons vs. Lions Best Bets14:06 Bills vs. Commanders Best Bets21:34 Chargers vs. Vikings Best Bets28:48 Saints vs Packers Best Bets37:12 Eagles vs. Buccaneers Best Bets46:00 More Week 3 NFL Bets58:00 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansBecome a 4for4 Bets YouTube Member  👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/@4for4Bets/joinSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 360-degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best views of those pivotal plays. And if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen, Sharp, to talk week three of the NFL.

Clark, something very different about you today. I can't put my finger on it. How's it going? Good, good. No hat. I have to earn the hat with a winning week. So this week, I go unadorned on the hat, and hopefully until next week. Lettuce is looking good, though.

You styled it up for us a little bit, so we're doing okay still, still holding on. Connor, how are we doing, buddy? Good, yeah. I think every single time someone new watches the show they ask me like oh like i like that clark guy's hat or they make a comment about it or something like that uh and so yeah you're not wearing it so i guess anyone knew you know usually wearing rocking a stylish hat over there so but but hey i think if you win multiple weeks what would you say you start stacking them on top of each other so you need i might i do have multiple fedoras might have to bring it out we'll see how the season goes yeah is there like a special you know 20 unit fedora did we see that last week because they were like 16 units is there or is it just like you know no i thought about doing the stack but maybe if i have another 16 unit week

i'll weigh the stack yeah i gave a little bit back last week but not bad overall uh you know still in the mix still some some good stuff um again love clark's process you get a sense of that today hopefully if you are hanging out with us for the first time if you are three of us are here every wednesday 4 p.m eastern on the the 444Bets YouTube channel. Should be able to find the podcast feeds every Wednesday evening. So subscribe to both so you don't miss a show. It's free content. So supporting it by subscribing, likes, comments, thumbs up, five stars, all those things go a long way in helping us continue to bring the best content and tools in the industry. So take a second to do that. We really appreciate it. If you are hanging out with us on

YouTube, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite week three look is on the board currently. Also, don't forget about Move the Line Prop Drop Show. That is our Friday show. Also here on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel, 3 p.m. on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern on Friday. It's Connor, myself, and John Hyslop talking props, getting more on the player side. So again, two episodes, podcast, and on 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. Come hang out with us. Great time to scoop the betting sub as well. Reminder, if you want to get the official plays that we push out,

you need to have a betting subscription to 4 for 4. That subscription gets you access to everything we do. So if you're still playing season long, you grind DFS, you want tools, rankings, projections, any article. And then of course, we always talk about the discord. That's where the plays are officially pushed through. Great like-minded community.

Again, all hours of the day, that chat is popping a great place to be. Again, you can head over to four for four.com slash plans. Use the promo code week two, and you'll get 25% off of that yearly sub. Definitely worth checking out. There's more information here in the show notes of both the podcast and on YouTube. All right. After week one, we have a singular data point. We were excited about it. We needed it. After week two, we open ourselves up to the possibility of trends. And the goal here is to get ahead of some trends as quickly as possible. Again, it's just want to really balance overreaction to underreaction. We have to be able to be pliable, move off of priors, trust what our eyes are seeing, trust what new data is telling us. Again, still really difficult because we have a small sample size of data,

but we have to be able to leverage that knowing that the bookmakers are just as likely as us to hold on to some priors. So we want to kind of find ways to leverage that. Is there anything week two, Clark, in terms of your process that has changed? How drastic are you making any changes to your numbers, to the modeling, anything like that? Talk to us about kind of how you approach week three. Yeah, week two is still very preliminary because we at least now have one data point of comparison right so team a performed like this against team b and team b performed like this against team c so we have you know at least a comparison in that sense but it's still only one game to compare it to so you know a team

like the steelers right they've gone against the 49ers defense and the browns defense like is their offense really trash or are they exactly who they were last year where they can win when they can win the offensive line battle and they just haven't had a chance against either defensive lines they've played. So it's still very preliminary, still figuring out some of these teams, teams that had like a really good performance and a really bad performance are really tough for me because, you know, you kind of split the middle, but they're probably more like one than the other, but we just don't know yet. So yeah, very preliminary until, you know, roughly week four. Yeah. Well, we have a one than the other, but we just don't know yet. So yeah, very preliminary until roughly week four.

Yeah. Well, we have a team on the other extreme. I think we'll get to in one of our later matchups here on the show, which is interesting to get your guys' thoughts there. A lot of talk in week one about scoring being down. Unders came in at a 75% clip. Things balanced back in week two. Overs coming in 13 of the 16 games.

Again, all this is descriptive more than predictive i wouldn't leverage this into trying to make any week three decisions based on that just again reminder that some of the stuff works itself out over time books over corrects um there's just a lot of different elements here in a market that's live it's a market right this is not a static market these things are constantly evolving and um with that let's jump into our favorites or top games some of the most interesting games for us here in week three first is the falcons they are on the road in detroit um looks like let me just double check we haven't had any movement three and a half uh is the number on the lion's side on fanduel um 46 and a half is the total here this was like five and a half

in the look at market so some you know post week two steam coming here on the falcons lions came out of last week's game against the seahawks with a ton of injuries as of now we don't really know the status of some real key contributors i'm on raw saint brown had some cramps i think it's a turf toe issue too and that's a little frightening uh in terms of his availability here a couple offensive line injuries as well uh holla vi by tie um swing lineman taylor decker they lost a couple guys on the defensive side james houston cj gardner johnson those guys are probably out for extended period of times if not the season and david montgomery here too with a thigh injury uh connor i'll give you the floor here to talk first about the Falcons and Alliance.

Yeah, it's interesting. Both of these teams here are the two lowest pass rate over expectations. That means that when you normalize for game script and for everything else, Atlanta, negative 14% pass rate over expectation. And then we have Detroit at negative 9.4%. Obviously, some of Detroit's injuries there with CJ Gardner Johnson is a big deal. Potentially James Houston as well. I personally kind of lean towards Atlanta here. I think Clark got a better number than what we're currently seeing. This dropped to three for a little bit. Now we're seeing this back up to plus three and a half. I kind of like Atlanta here at plus three

and a half. We've seen right now Detroit, you know, in their two matches has been a pretty league average run defense according to EPA, pretty strong at success rate overall. but we talked about it last week. Like I think Atlanta is so different and so much better running the ball than basically every other team. And that played out last week, uh, then that it doesn't really matter in terms, especially if it's like a league average, you know, match up here. I think the only, you should really only pay attention to those types of things at the extremes potentially. So I think that Atlanta will be able to get it done on the ground here against Detroit. Uh, and then some of the injuries might be a big issue tier two, you know, David Montgomery's probably not going to play. I'm going to say Brown is a little

bit banged up. Um, and then maybe they're not able to expose an Atlanta defense that has looked better. Right. Uh, and I think this is one of those things where you guys talked about it already. Um, where yes, like Atlanta's metrics and their defense looks a lot better, but they've also played against like Jordan Love and Bryce Young. I don't really think that those are two great examples in terms of especially anyone comparable to a guy like Jared Goff with his full arsenal. But I don't think that's necessarily going to be the case here.

So I like Atlanta plus 3.5, and I'm interested to hear your guys' thoughts here because I think that this could change if we had a fully healthy Detroit team. Yeah, which we don't, Clark. Lions 31st in run- stop win rate to start. It's a bad matchup for a team that loves to pound the ball on you. And like Jordan Love, I think played okay last week,

but they only ran like 45 total plays, but that's kind of the deal, right? Like that's a feature, not a bug in what they're trying to do there in Atlanta. What are your thoughts here? Yeah, I think the injuries for Detroit are very concerning. It's funny coming into the season, the buzzword was positionless offense, right? Positionless football. And these are the two teams that were leaning into that the most both drafted rookie running backs that had versatility as their number one, you know, the number one trait. So they can both use running backs in different ways out wide, you know,

two running back sets, they have tight ends that can play wide and i i haven't really been that impressed with what the lions have done uh with jameer gibbs it's been more traditional than i expected now david montgomery's hurt and so the thought might be well they're gonna you know use jameer gibbs more but it sounds like they're just gonna rotate in some backup running back more um so i'm not really sure that the lions have hit their peak of who they are um The Falcons and Lions to me are very similar teams. They're built around really strong run game, making easy throws possible for a mediocre quarterback. And so getting more than the three in a game where both teams are kind of built the same way, especially with the healthier team, I think is a good bet. Yeah, like I got the open for the

subscribers at plus five, but I think anything above a field goal, like think is a good bet. Yeah, like I got the open for the subscribers at plus five, but I think anything above a field goal, like this is a game that is close to being a toss up. Granted, the Lions home field matters and Jared Goff plays significantly better when he's at home in the dome. But I still think that the Desmond Ritter hate and slander is like totally unjustified. He played a hell of a game against Green Bay. Yes. He had a couple of bad throws dropped interceptions always, you know, perk up the ears of people and say, Oh, he should have had all these interceptions. Like that happens to every quarterback, every game for the most part, especially in the second half, Desmond Ritter took care of business. He made accurate throws. He read when he was supposed to leave the pocket.

He scrambled up for key first downs and touchdowns. And he just handled that offensive comeback with, you know, the poise that I've kind of hoped he would bring to the table. The Falcons team believes in him. And I think this is a good spot for Atlanta to again, surprise people because people seem to continue to doubt them. So I think we feel like the hook is important here still. So if you're still able to get the hook on Atlanta,

even though you might not have the five that Clarkark pushed through to subscribers being getting the hook here i think with three and a half almost steadily across the board i think is still interesting tailored two halves for desmond ritter i agree he did look good in the second half um much better um and i do think that like the home road splits for golf i think home road splits can obviously be pretty noisy i don't think it's really a factor in anything that three of us really do in terms of handicapping team or player level performance too, too much. But I mean, I think the golf stuff has started to like be at least something like sticky, right? We always talk about not wanting to back off outside and bad weather. Like golf at home has been like track meet style stuff since he got here to Detroit. So I think that that's interesting in

terms of maybe where the total is. The Jameer Gibbs thing is interesting to me. This may be a little bit more prop-specific. I think it can impact the game. I think we see a decent amount of Jameer Gibbs here as a passer, as a pass catcher, I'm sorry. Like nine targets last week, seven catches. Atlanta plays a Ryan Nielsen, defensive coordinator,

came over from the Saints and Dennis Allen. They like to run a lot of man. And just similar to how we like to attack rushing quarterbacks against man defenses. I want to attack running back pass catchers against man defense as well. It's naturally, he's going to get lined up a bunch of times against K Nellis and Troy Anderson, and maybe sometimes some safeties like that's going to be a problem.

I hope they look to exploit that. Yeah. I can get a chance to name drop some of my favorite linebackers here, but I do think it's going to be a nice spot for Gibbs in the passing game. So whether that's a reception prop or yardage prop, I think he's going to be featured here prominently, especially Montgomery looks like he's out,

especially if there's something going on with Amon Ra and he's not going to be active. I think we see a good amount of Gibbs. But I'm with you guys. I think the three and a half matters. Connor, any leans on the total here with 46 and a half considering how much these teams like to run yeah that's the my issue is that like if they're not overly efficient like we're definitely not getting there but i think that they probably will be so i don't know it's probably like a wait and see on

the offense and see how like it shakes out like if i'm in rosin i'm probably in on the over um i will say i guess my notes on desmond ritter were a little bit not different like, it was more so like very inconsistent because there was some like really, really bad throws, but then you've kind of figured it out. But it was just like, those were kind of my issues. Like there was a couple of times where I was like, Holy shit, that was terrible. You know? And then obviously he figured it out down the road, but that was like, my concern is that like, I think that I'm probably a little bit lower than you on Desmond Ritter at the current stance, but I can see how, you know, uh, you know, the second half was a good sign for his future there. And he was forced to throw a little bit. I think that was a major question to this Falcons team is like, Hey, can they actually like come back and win a game? You know? And I think that

they kind of answered yes. Cause they just did it. So. Yeah, I guess Packers defense is pretty good, especially in the secondary, The Lions defense is really struggling. I mean, against the Seahawks, they just got completely worked, and the Seahawks were down two offensive linemen. Now they're missing C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who coming out of the gate was their sort of vocal leader on the field. He was the one that was pumping people up and getting people going. So I think it's going to be a tough go for the Lions defense.

Tracy Walker's ready to step in. He should be a starting safety for majority teams in the league surprised that he really didn't get the start maybe early in the season over kirby joseph he walks right in and helps i do agree that there's been a lot of talk from detroit around like some of the if you want to buy into some of the rah-rah narrative stuff that um garter johnson's been pretty instrumental in terms of maybe kind of being the Dan Campbell on the field in some of those things. So I think they will definitely, definitely miss him without a doubt. Green Bay blitzed their face off. So it was good to see Ritter in the second half adjust.

Detroit's like 30th so far in pass rush win rates. They're not really getting home. That's also probably a good thing on the Falcons side as well. All right, second game. We have Buffalo on the road in Washington. Looks like we are at 6.5 currently. We see we're at on FanDuel 6.5. 43.5 is the total.

That looks like it's taking a little bit of money there on the under. Sixes were available in the look-ahead market. Commanders 2-0. Wild week 2 win in Denver. Bills got right at home against the raiders kind of saw josh allen we were expecting maybe earlier in the season he was really good really efficient took really what the raiders were giving him he led all quarterbacks in epa and composites cpoe in week two 62 and change on the success rates really good good. Dink and dunk, like he didn't have to push the ball down the field. It took advantage of it.

Sam Howell also pretty damn good in that week two game as well. 93.5 adjusted completion percentage on the road in Denver. Just his third NFL start. Extremely encouraging. O-line held up pretty well too against, again, not a great pass rush with Arizona andzona and denver so far that they faced we'll see what that looks like here uh connor what are your thoughts on this matchup yeah my initial lean was towards the over especially at 43 and a half i mean washington's

defense looks solid on paper but then again when you kind of factor in who they played it's like arizona and denver who i don't think we're really high on offensively and so you're looking at them 11th in epa six and success right like to, I just don't put too much stock into that. And one stat that I found was interesting was that they're pretty good at defending like shorter passes. And so, but they're not very good at defending longer passes. So they've allowed opposing passers to have 108.3 rating, which is 25th, completing 10 of 20 passes for 280 yards, 14 yards per attempt on passes, 10 yard further than 10 yards on field. Now that being said, Josh Allen has focused primarily, and we saw it last game, like a

little bit of shorter passes here and there. And I think that we probably saw, we talked about it a little bit last week with, after the jets game where he was passing up options underneath to like try and force it in downfield. And that obviously did not go so well in week one against the jets kind of regressed and saw him just be a lot more efficient in week two against a much worse Raiders defense. And I think we're probably going to see somewhere in between, probably see a couple more shorter shots and then be able to take advantage of the commanders downfield here. So I lean towards the over, especially if there's any validity to what we've seen from this commander's offense.

As you mentioned there, some pretty solid outings. I think that Sam Howell took a little bit to come into his own, but then once he started cooking, like he was good to go. So this Bill's defense, that being said, I think is pretty strong overall. Like their run defense is playing a lot better. They dominated, dominated the Raiders last week. Um, so that'll be a big question is whether or not like Sam Howell can shoulder the load against a pretty strong pass defense, but, um, you know, if they can at least push back at all, I think we could see this game go over the total of 43 and a half i took a team total play on the bills over 26 and a half um just like them in the spot some of the reasons that connor kind of laid out again key numbers are important here getting on the right side of

that i think is uh is vital just remain bullish clark like we were in the preseason on uh josh allen who and in the bills in general you just kind of have i think enough of a sample that the jets kind of i'd say have their number but again they're a tough defense and they played them well and that was a tough all the things in terms of what was going on in that game good to see and get right uh what are your thoughts here both teams have kind of followed the same pattern for me like there was a lot of uncertainty about both coming into the year a lot of you know split opinions both disappointed in week one and then both really bounced back in a big way in week two so I'm kind of back to where I was in the preseason with both these teams I I was really impressed with Sam Howell uh and the offense what Eric Biennium has done to create easier options

for him and in the passing game has been really really helpful there was a really nice screen or a couple really nice screens they set up to where all Sam Howell has to do is like pretend like he's looking at one side of the field and then throw it across field to the running back. And both Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are capable of turning those plays into 20, 30 yards. You know, they're hard to take down. They've got speed. So I think if they continue to do that, if they can out think the bills defense, then I think they have a chance here to keep up. And the, the, the total does seem a little low. The spread seems right then I think they have a chance here to keep up. And the total does seem a little low. The spread seems right. I think coming coming into the week, I was sort of like, you know,

maybe we should grab the Bills, you know, so that we can have options when it goes back over seven. But after watching the Washington game, I think six and a half is right. I don't think we're going to see too much price action from this point. But it all comes down to whether or not the Washington offense can be smart enough to protect Howell from being in bad situations. Because as good as his highlights look, his lowlights are really bad too. Like he can hold the ball too long trying to make a play. He doesn't see the pressure coming off the edge. If the Bills can get in the backfield consistently, then I think there's potential disaster here for the Washington and potential blowout for the Bills. But if,

if Eric, the enemy can kind of set things up easily for how keep things controlled, keep things, keep them under control. Then I think Washington, you know, has the spunk and the, you know,

they went on the road and came back from an 18 point deficit. So they have that attitude that can, that can hang with good teams. And I think there's a lot of variants in this game. Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, I mean, Denver in September on the road is kind of a, that did not work this year. teams and i think there's a lot of variants in this game yeah that's a good point i mean i mean

denver in september on the road is kind of uh that did not work this year uh if anyone was uh going off of that did not did not happen but uh they had a comment here and mentioning you know chase young yeah chase young came back for washington played really well um i think that that makes a difference believing um josh allen the offensive line protecting him and making a difference here but yeah young Young is impactful. I wouldn't necessarily overrate it too, too much. I will say the one thing I am watching here as somewhat of a trend and actually have heard it be discussed in terms of what offensive coordinator

Ken Dorsey is trying to do in Buffalo. Josh Allen's design run rate is way down. Nearly 20% last year, 10% so far this year. Did not scramble once against the Raiders. And the Raiders got pressure on a third of their drop back. So it wasn't just that he wasn't forced to scramble. They were in there a little bit. And I've heard snippets of Dorsey mentioning that that's somewhat intentional,

trying to ramp it up as the season goes along. That's a huge part of what they do. I would love to have Josh Allen with the green light to be able to tuck and run whenever possible. But we can see. I think part of it is maybe helping him not tuck and run too fast to be able to see and take some stuff underneath versus trying to hold on to it for too long to push it down the field.

Again, just something I want to monitor. Again, maybe more of a prop-related thing. But thing but again just overall the efficiency of the offense is better when josh allen is running the football so that's something to watch for moving forward it's like uh what the uh bears are trying to do with uh luke gets or luke gets you try to do with justin fields but it's been a complete disaster because justin fields can't handle that so yeah one thing about the washington defense is they get a lot of credit for having good front four, especially with Chase Young. But over the last few years, even with Chase Young,

they've had very significant splits between bad and good offenses. They're the kind of team that can really shut down a bad offense. And last year, they had a really easy schedule. So I think chasing down Russell Wilson is a very different proposition than chasing down Josh Allen. So I wouldn't expect a strong performance from the Washington defensive line here, but it's possible. Yeah, seven pressures, two sacks, four hurries. Nice performance from Chase Young in his season debut. Makes things easier for Montez Sweat on the other side, for sure.

Again, this is a spot where maybe I'm going to hang on to priors a little bit longer and think that i think the bills are more of who we saw last week and i think that they can get it done here um all right next we have uh an interesting one uh shop this one we have the chargers in minnesota um let me see where we're at this is bouncing around basically wherever you're at um this is also looks like it's moved even since a little bit ago. Looks like FanDuel and Chargers are now one-point favorites. This is a pick-em in some spots. About an hour ago, it was a point on the other side on the Vikings. So total is down now on FanDuel, 53.5, which is important.

54 in a lot of other spots. 54, a key number in terms of totals. So, again, depending on your lean here, there's some shopping to do. Pretty massive movement. Again, this is a 48 total in the look ahead market. So these defenses have massively disappointed Clark, so I understand why the market sentiment is what it is. What are your thoughts here?

This is kind of going to be a wild game, I think. Yeah, this game's hilarious. If I'm a sports book, I don't want to move to one and a half either way because everyone's just going to tease whatever team's the underdog like you know this is this is the game where if the chargers are up 10 the vikings are going to get in the back door of a teaser like if the vikings are up 10 the chargers are going to get in the back door of a teaser like this is going to be that kind of game neither team is really capable of based on what i've seen so far is capable of really burying an opponent, especially if Austin Eckler doesn't go. Joshua Kelly, he's not it.

It's going to be all Justin Herbert again. And I do like what I've seen from the Chargers, despite their 0-2 record. The Titans are a very tough defense. The Dolphins are a very good team, obviously. So I have more optimism long-term on the Chargers than the Vikings, but there's just something that is uncomfortable about betting them. And like, you know, my numbers aren't there based on what I've seen to date. I think when you factor in home field pick is about right for this game. One thing I would keep an eye on is the Vikings

offensive line situation because Kirk Cousins is just, I mean, he's so good at throwing like right before he gets hit and he was doing it all night against Philadelphia. It was like amazing what he was doing, but you can't keep that up like game after game after game. That's just really tough for quarterback to do. And so the charges are able to get pressure there. Their backup left tackle got hurt in game against, uh, uh, whoever was at Philadelphia. Um, so now they're down to the third string left tackle. That's not good for cousins. You know, we'll see if the center plays. I think that there's more chance that the charges kind of take control here than there

is that the Vikings do. But it's not a, yeah, it's not a play for me. More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 360-degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best views of those pivotal plays. And, if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets.

Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. Yeah, Connor, Chargers have been a disaster defensively. Minnesota, not much better though. I think maybe they've exceeded a little bit of expectations, but there's just a lot of different ways that this game can go.

What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah. 91% of Minnesota's yardage has come through passing, which is just astounding because they just haven't, they try and run the ball and it just doesn't work. And they don't, they know that with their offensive line right now, they can't really move the opposing defensive line.

So there's just like nothing to do. And it's not like Alexander Madison is some special talent that is going to beat three or four guys. So they just said, you know, screw it. We're going to go to the short passing game instead. And honestly, I don't really blame them. I think that kind of works just as well, given the talent that they have with Hawkinson, Jordan Addison is playing a little bit more each week.

And then obviously Justin Jefferson, uh, and you know, KJ Osborne filling in here and there when needed. So personally, like my initial look was like, Oh, we're going to see another pass heavy game on both sides. But we talked about it last week. Like I think Clark and I, it's very interesting. We're both right. Because the, uh, you know, we talked about how the charters would come in and then throw a bunch of the Titans. They did through 41 times. Um, but the Titans also won and covered because the charters didn't capitalize on anything, blew an overtime chance. And just, I don't know, not a good enough team to get the job done. And so it was like a combo of both of what we said last week happening on this spot specifically though, the Vikings run defense has also been very bad. So what is,

you know, like, it's not as clear cut what Kellen Moore is going to do. And so for me, like it doesn't necessarily give me hesitance on the total because we could see another like dolphins chargers game. Like we just saw in week one where chargers ran for like 200 yards and still got their way over the total. But it does give me a little bit of hesitance on the problem market of like, okay, well, what approach are we going to see here? Because it'll obviously massively impact like the game outlook over there as well. And it also means that the Vikings have

to be like a little bit more efficient passing wise if we're going to see less volume. So for me, it's kind of just a stay away and it'll probably just be an awesome game to watch either way. I just don't know. I think there's like a lot of different scenarios of like how it plays out. Yeah, I don't have a great feeling. I think Clark makes a good point in terms of where I think we'll keep it in terms of minus one, maybe both sides still moving around the zero. Eckler's status, I think, is impactful. I think maybe it's the only thing in this situation that could maybe move it a little bit if we were maybe to get some positive sentiment on Eckler's status here. Minnesota keeps working from behind the chains. They are 31st in success rate on first down. It's like Cincinnati's dead

last, Minnesota is 31st, and then everyone else. It's a pretty big drop off. It's not great. And obviously a lot of that is like, hey, when you're trying to run on first down and you can't do anything, you have like a 25% success rate on first down. Yeah, all of a sudden it's going to be second and nine, and that makes things a little bit harder uh for cousins and company so yeah it's going to be uh it's going to be interesting if herbert can handle the blitz and i think he probably can here because we thought this would be coming in how minnesota played defense kind of inexperienced young in the back half flores loves to blitz playing a lot of zone behind it instead but 50 of their defensive snaps so far have involved the Blitz.

The problem is they're only getting home on 35% of those. That is the sixth worst Blitz success rate in the league. And Herbert, if they can protect him, has the weapons and is a guy that I think can take advantage of that in a different way than maybe some of the teams they've played so far. So if he can do that, that would be a big part of the game for me. And again, that's not something we can necessarily handicap a ton beforehand. It's just kind of one of those things in game.

Like, hey, look, they just can't get home, but they're bringing the house and Herbert's having his way. So, I mean, look, they were able to take advantage of it last week. I mean, they made Ryan Tannehill. The Chargers got like a ton of pressure as well. It made Ryan Tannehill look like Ryan Tannehill, the Chargers got like a ton of pressure as well. It made Ryan Tannehill look like Ryan Tannehill of like 2018, like 95.7% adjusted completion percentage. That's just a tough spot. So I understand why the total is hanging out with the highest on the board of the week.

So yeah, interesting game. No lean for me now. Eckler status matters a ton before I jump into this one. You mentioned, sorry, go for it. I'm just worried if I'm a charge is better I'm thinking about what Tyree kill did to the charges defense in week one and thinking what is Dustin Jefferson gonna do oh yeah that's that's a disaster you mentioned too about how they have the worst success around first down it's funny because in the offseason I was talking with Robert Mays and he said specifically the reason they liked Alexander Madison was that he was going to keep them on schedule on first and second down and get them

exactly three to four yards, which is all they wanted. And it turns out they're getting even less. And then Dalvin Cook was actually the one probably helping them get a little bit more plus offensive line matters too. But still it's like, that's the opposite of what's happened so far. They're behind schedule. Yeah. It consists of not going so well all right next we have new orleans on the road in green bay i believe this is green bay minus two across the board yep still there 42 and a half is the total on fanduel looks like there's some 42s in the market as well this is a little bit of a short week back-to-back road games here for the saints traveling to green bay jordan loves lambo debut as a starter kind of

uneven start to the season for derrick carr um they're taking deep shots this is something that they did a little bit or he did a little bit last year in um in vegas it's kind of continued 20.3 percent of his passes so far have been considered deep leads the league hurting some of his efficiency metrics um and maybe that's kind of how they get it done here as well because there's some questions at running back uh be interested to see what happens the packers again another blitz heavy team if they're not able to get home you could have some shots here to lave 43 of the packers defensive snaps so far have been uh blitz the second highest rate in the league they're even worse at getting home than the Vikings are. 28% of those are getting

home. That is the fourth lowest blitzing success rate in the league, trying to drum up pressure anywhere they can. Clark, and it is not happening so far for the Packers. What are your thoughts on this matchup? I think it depends a little bit on how much the Saints want to use Taysom Hill. I saw it in the Panthers game. Like anytime the Saints use Taysom Hill substantially, I'm talking like 10, 15 snaps plus, they seem to do well offensively. Like, I don't know what it is, but like they roll them out there

and it's like defenses. I mean, I guess it's just an extra blocker, right? Like he's a running back, he's a quarterback. So you kind of have a mismatch. It's the Ronnie Brown situation all over again, but it works every time. And it takes so much pressure off Derek Carr when he's sitting back

there and getting pressured on every play the offensive line is a little bit of a problem um so I think if they mix Taysom Hill in especially against this Packers front that can be beat on the ground uh then I think the Saints will have some success moving the ball I'm a little bit concerned about not having you know a true running back Kendra Miller looks like he's gonna be good to go potentially I'm not sure how good he is as a rookie. I don't watch his college film or anything, but the Packers secondary versus Chris Olave and Mike Thomas is going to be a really interesting matchup that might end up deciding the game. It's going to be tough for the Saints again on the road in Lambeau, tough environment. Packers might get Christian Watson back. They might get Aaron Jones back. They might

get Bakhtiari back. This is a good Packers team, and it's a good Saints team. I think this matchup is underrated. I understand why the Saints are favored. It's basically books saying, you know, we're going to give the Packers the home field points and then kind of let betters decide who they think is the better team. I lean Saints, but a lot of it depends on these injury reports and a lot of it depends on the game plan.

Derek Carr is getting no respect from, you know, people talking about him from betters. And I think that expecting him to be, you know, right away as good as he's going to be is a little bit, you know, a little bit optimistic. So I'm kind of being patient with the Saints. I think that the fact that two and oh, despite playing pretty rough in their first two games is a good sign for them, especially with their schedule. So I think this can go either way, uh could make a good teaser leg on the saints and what could be a kind of a defensive tough fought game yeah i think you touched on it briefly too i think the status again of wednesday as we record here so we're getting you know preliminary wednesday practice reports that is uh you know maybe some of the least useful of the week we definitely want the friday reports in terms of what we have now it does look positive for christian watson aaron jones did not practice

the way he was seen on the field i don't know really all of what that means david bakhtiari is a touchy subject um in green bay at this time it seems like it's a grass surface so it looks like he'll be playing um elton jen Jenkins also sprained his MCL last week, so we don't know if he's a go here. If the Biak-Tiari thing is more than just a turf situation and he's out as well, that could be of interest. The Saints defense has been kind of what we've expected and what they've been of late.

Now, again, Titans, Panthers, not teams that we should be scared of necessarily, Connor, but again, still a really strong defense here against Jordan Love, who's also had some up and down on even play as well. Taking advantage of some big plays, had some inaccuracies in terms of completion percentage over expectation, things like that. Although we have another big loss here on the Saints side,

Marcus May just a couple hours ago suspended for three games on Wednesday for violating the NFL's policy on substance abuse. So pretty big loss for them in the back half. What are your thoughts on this matchup? Should be an interesting one. So many moving pieces when you just put all that together, because you have a Packers offense that literally is played, I would say inconsistent, but like exciting when things have happened, but without their best options, but against bad defenses. And then you have a Saints defense that's played really well against pretty bad offenses, but against bad defenses. And then you have a Saints defense has played really well against pretty bad offenses, you know, but like now they're missing some guys. So it's just like, how does that blend together? Like my personal lean is that probably under, I think Packers

team total under 21 and a half is a decent lean at this point. But like if Watson's playing, Aaron Jones is playing, Bakhtiari's in, I don't know if I really love that as much anymore, but like if you get me one or two of those guys out, I'm probably in on the under, like it's probably wait and see for me at this point. I was looking at this yesterday. It was like 43, 43 and a half. Um,

I was a little bit more into it there, but I mean, still, I think 21 and a half is a pretty interesting lean here because I mean, we've seen the highlights from Jordan love. There's been like three, three or four quarterbacks where it's like, just like my notes are just like inconsistent.

Jordan love was one of them. Doesn't remember. It was another, them another one of them. But like Ritter was another one of them. But like, it's like, I think Jordan Love, like he has made some great plays, but he's also just made some really bad ones. And it's reflected in the stats as well.

So for me, it's probably stay away, but I'll lean on the under. A lot of moving pieces here before. So I kind of want to talk about today because I want to get your guys' thoughts. Although, you know, as we get the Wednesday report, still really hard to kind of suss out from down here because these are all, they're not just small injuries.

These are pretty massive, especially on the Packer side, offensively. Like the Watson news today, that's encouraging. You know, kind of interesting to see how it kind of shuffles the rest of the receivers. You know, Jaden Reed's been really good. You know, Romeo Dobbs, not super efficient, not a lot of volume, but finding the end zone, it's interesting to see kind of how things shake out with everyone there.

So definitely watch the injuries, Clark. Jordan Love is first in EPA per play in the NFL right now. And yet Tua is getting all the MVP love. It doesn't make any sense to me. Jordan Love is great. Can we just have a quick tangent here? Tua is number one in MVP odds right now at Sportsbooks. I mean, I didn't think I'd see.

I mean, I thought maybe, you know, some things go right, like week eight, nine, ten. We're like week three, guys. Like, what's going on here? This is crazy. They're two and oh, and they've looked awesome. Yeah, it's tough. I mean, he's still just fragile, right? I mean, that's the thing. It's just, it's all

about, I think that was the entire handicap on Tua, right? It was just like... He's never getting hit. Yeah. And they've been doing it without uh you know terence armstead who's practicing today who looks like yeah it doesn't matter because they're getting the ball out so fast it's like that's that's the best way to protect a quarterback like to uh yeah i think quickest uh time to throw in the league right now right by like by a good margin and like average of the target is like i think first in the league yeah usually you have yeah usually the deep shots for that but like the tyree kill and jaylen water get downfield so fast it's amazing mike mcdaniel's just in his bag this season i mean this is like

i got i got some lingering coach of the year bets on him hopefully uh those pop um we bet that right yeah we released that as an official play. We got Dolphins division too. So just praying for Tua, baby. Stay healthy. Yeah. I mean, it makes sense, right? When you think back to it, we're on a tangent. Might as well stay here for a second.

Offensive-minded coach, just a guy who's been an interesting coordinator coming up. You get him in his second year in a spot too. You talk about it too at times where him in his second year in a spot too. You talk about it too at times where, you know, quarterback in his second year in a system and, you know, second year growth of wide receivers that we see. You have a coach who now has some stuff in place, right? He brings in a new defensive coordinator. He doesn't have to worry about that quite as much. There's just a lot that I think in his second year where he's able to really

dial it up even more and understand. I kind of have a feel of the cadence of the administrative stuff of my job but now i can really lean into kind of even a little bit more more efficient offseason not like i don't have to move to miami get a house figure all that like he was just able to like literally get in his bag this offseason and figure out i have these two insane weapons on the outside how do i just exploit them and they've kind of hit the ground running and yeah it's gonna be interesting to watch. Now we'll get back on task. Final game here that we will break down in depth.

We have Philadelphia on the road for, I believe this is one of the Monday nighters, right? We have another two Monday nighters. Tampa Bay is catching four and a half. On FanDuel, the total is 46. This was Tampa Bay six and a half in the look at market uh and clark jumped in there on monday uh floor is yours sir yeah this is a matchup that i think is very interesting because of how the eagles have played offensively to date and how the bucks have

played to date coming into the year i think pretty much consensus was eagles are one of the best teams in the league and the bucks are one of the best teams in the league and the Bucks are one of the worst teams in the league. There are some people who disagree with that consensus, but that was generally the view. And now it's only four and a half points spread, granted it's in Tampa Bay, but four and a half points spread between these two teams based solely on what we've seen in the last two weeks. That is Tampa Bay beat Minnesota and it is a little bit of a shaky box score. Minnesota may have deserved to win that game if you look at the yards per play and things like that. But then they went in game two, and Baker Mayfield just kind of like

is starting to get his teammates to believe. And yes, it was Chicago. So it's, you know, how impressive is it winning against Chicago? But it was the way that he kind of is gaining confidence and his teammates' confidence, the way that the offensive line is playing, like that was the big concern coming in the year was you know the offensive line couldn't even protect Tom Brady like what's Baker Mayfield gonna do they've been playing well and it's because of what I talked

about in the preseason about how they've changed up their offense they're they're built you know they built in a better run game a more versatile run game a lot of play action Tom Brady didn't want to use the play action this is where Baker Mayfield thrives so I think the Bucs have really proven something their defense was always good and And the Eagles, on the other hand, have really looked unimpressive. Despite winning two games, they needed four lost fumbles by the Vikings to kind of pull away in that game. And then in week one against New England, who I think we saw wasn't that good against New England, sorry, against Miami, they didn't look good either. They could have lost that game. So now we've got the spread shrinking and saying you know the bucks might be able to compete here i i buy it i'm a big believer in

responding to what we see on the field and what we've seen on the field is that the gap between these teams is much smaller than anticipated and on top of that we've got jalen hurts whose biggest struggles throughout his career has been when defenses are able to speed up his decision makingmaking and force him to make quick throws. That's what the Vikings did, even though they didn't have a good defense. They caused Jalen Hurts to struggle. You know, he had those two big plays, but outside of that was really, really bad, you know, low success rate. So I think the Bucks defense can do the same thing. They dial up a lot of blitzes. They get a lot of quick pressure. I think it's a big test for the Eagles offense. And without Shane Steichen, who's doing a fantastic job in Indianapolis, I don't know that the Eagles have the answer on offense here.

So I think the Bucs are going to make this ugly. And I think that might, you know, especially at home kind of give Baker Mayfield and the massive chip on his shoulder, the kind of boost he needs to kind of make this game competitive. So I definitely agree with the price moving on, on bringing this down from six and a half to four and a half. Connor, where are you at on this matchup? Yeah, I think that my issue with the Bucks and being really excited about them is that when you

contextualize it for Chicago and Minnesota, like I'm just not quite as excited. I mean, Chicago is a complete and utter disaster at this point. Whereas in Minnesota, I think are basically beatable in almost every asset facet. Now, I think that Baker is certainly impressed. Mike Evans has looked good. He's had a good rapport there. He's hitting them deep plenty of times. Now, I just want to see them play a good defense and see how it goes. And I think that that's more of a proving point. Now, I don't think Philadelphia in a lot of areas, this issue is that I don't think they played well offensively to your point. I don't think that their defense has been as good as we've seen in years past. And so like we have those, that combination there is like, is this where I want to take my stand against Tampa Bay?

And I don't think so. And so that's kind of the issue is that like at plus where I think you got plus six, plus six and a half, something like that. Um, I thought it was a great number. Now we're getting to minus four and a half. Like if it got to three somehow, I think I would be interested in the Eagles, but like, we're never getting to three. So, you know, like that's the issue is that like, I just don't think that I think the Eagles are probably still a little bit overrated in the market. And I think the Tampa Bay certainly will be overrated in the market. I just don't know when a good buying point is going to be. So think you said it perfectly i think that i want to find ways to go against this changed market sentiment on the buccaneers i don't know that this is the right spot because the eagles are beat up like you know they're missing

guys like the middle of the defense has just been ravaged uh they were playing third, four string guys up and down linebacker slot corner safety. It's just kind of a wreck and it's not good. Now their injuries, key injuries too on the Buccaneers side and especially on the defensive side. And that was some of my concern, just the paper thin depth that they have there. Shocking no one, Carlton Davis has already missed a game. I don't know what his status is for this one that's a problem um kalasha can't see has not really played i think he's played like 15 snaps so far this season he was supposed to be like solidifying the defensive line up front being able to collapse the pocket and do some stuff he can't get on the field yeah not yeah not from the sideline uh it's not really working so much so So I don't know. Philly struggled. You

mentioned, I think Shane Steichen probably doesn't have a lot to do with it. Brian Johnson was there and he was the quarterback coach and now is the offensive coordinator. But first down success rate, 42%, 26 in the lead. They are 37% success rate on first down when they are passing the ball. That's 31st in the league. So we know how key that is to being able to be a predictor in terms of winning football games. Like talked about it earlier, staying ahead of the chains. They're not getting it done. This feels like a spot where they have to do that and take advantage of, especially if Carlton Davis is out, you need to get A.J. Brown going. There could be some squeaky wheel A.J. Brown stuff here. We saw them and we know that they're buddies, but they were kind of, it seems a little heated on the sideline aj brown i think is not super stoked that he's had

some quiet uh quiet games to start this year this could be one of those spots again tampa bay next five we've got philly new orleans detroit atlanta and buffalo so we're gonna get a sense of if this baker mayfield stuff is to be believed in we're gonna have a little bit of a sense of if this baker mayfield stuff is to be believed in we're going to have a little bit of a sense here um over the next handful of months by the time we get to the middle of october we'll know if uh it was you know cinderella uh and she lost her slipper or not which is kind of what i think is going to happen yeah we'll see i mean i don't know it could be he could be legit it could also be the next sam donald and the panthers where they look good for a couple games and then they are like the worst team in the league for the rest of the

season. So, yeah, I do agree. Clark's number is good though. I mean, getting six and a half was, you know,

definitely seeing where the market was going to go on. That was, was an important line. I think the bucks could be this year. Seahawks from last year in the sense that like, nobody really knew what to expect. Pretty, pretty low expectations,

but like you've got the the quarterback who's bounced around the league but like plays with a big chip on his shoulder and and really good weapons and you know sometimes and a good defense actually seattle didn't even have good defense last year but um and an easy division like i i'm annoyed because i was so pro bucks preseason but never bet anything on it um but you know like you said it could come crashing down to earth it's still baker mayfield baker mayfield has let betters down so many times i i think if if the if the interior defensive line for the eagles can just like truck the interior offensive line for the bucks then it won't matter how big of a chip or shoulder he has it's it's

gonna get ugly yeah i i have some Rashad White under his penciled in for this week. Just, I mean, one, I think he stinks. Two, the offensive line is,

might be an issue here, at least in the trenches for this, this matchup. I mean, this on paper was something I was like dying for coming into the season.

Baker loves to hold onto the ball. There's nothing he loves more than holding it for three, three and a half seconds. But he hasn't so far this year so that's been you know i would give credit to babe there's a there's a tie here dave canelis was in seattle last year is now the offensive coordinator so maybe there is some seattle tampa bay stuff going on here but again we'll get a sense here in the next month or so

but again good number for clark it's not something I would want to jump in on Tampa side for now, but it'd be interesting to see, again, kind of what happens to Island games too when they're out there on a Monday when everyone's looking for some action on Monday morning when the page flips and be interested to see what happens with any line movement there. There will be some. There's some people waiting to buy the Eagles. They're just like, you know, do I buy it for it or do I wait for three and a half?

You know, there's going to be a wrestling match, I know, do I buy it for it or if it three and a half, you know, it's, there's going to be a wrestling match, I think on this one. Yeah, I agree. I don't think you'll see the six and a half again though.

So, all right. Any other notes? Um, Bengals, uh, has been an interesting move. Clark, I'll give you the floor to talk about that one.

That is the other Monday night game against the Rams. Now, again, we don't have any, uh, current news on Joe Burrow. And I think that's been part of the movement there in terms of what we've seen that line to. It's just interesting. We've, we don't have any current news on Joe Burrow, and I think that's been part of the movement there in terms of what we've seen that line do.

It's just interesting. We've seen, I got this from ESPN Stats and Info, since the 17th, since the division realignment in 02, to start 0-2 with both of those losses coming in the division. None of those previous six made the playoffs. This is definitely a team that we thought was a playoff team. They're going to have to break a mold in terms of what we've seen historically. Again, a little bit of a different run out now.

We have a 17th game added. We have an extra playoff team added. But again, an uphill battle, especially if Burrow is dealing with lingering calf injury that keeps him out for this week or maybe more. Any thoughts on the Bengals or any thoughts on the Bengals and Rams game here on Monday night? I don't think the Bengals are good enough to make the playoffs without Joe Burrow. They're going to need him to get healthy. He might play this week. I mean, I saw some Bengals money kind of creep in today, you know, not to get to the three, but pushing the two and

a half towards the three, which to me could indicate that there's a little bit of optimism about Burrow playing, even if he's limited. If it gets back, if Burrow's in and it gets back over the three, where the Bengals are favored by three, four, five, six, I might be interested in the Rams.

I've been disappointed with Bengals defense. They were unable to get any pressure on Lamar Jackson, despite the Ravens missing two offensive linemen. And that's not a good sign. If you don't get pressure on Matthew Stafford, he's going to slice and dice you the way he's playing. He's playing at an MVP caliber level right now. Just absolutely dealing.

So there could be some interest for me there. I doubt that happens. And if Burrow doesn't play, the Rams might end up favored in this game. I think betters have seen what I've seen in the Rams and they're excited about it. And if it's Stafford versus backup in Cincinnati, I think the Rams will be favored even on the road. Not're excited about it. And if it's, if it's Stafford versus backup and Cincinnati, I think the Rams will be favorite,

even on the road. Not feeling good about my Rams under at this point, Connor, if you're going to get a, you know, backup quarterback here in no Joe Burrow, any thoughts on this matchup or any other things that you like here on the board in week three that we didn't talk about. I mean,

without Joe Burrow's playing, like they might still win, even if he does play like, I don't even know how much that matters given what we've seen so far. He's just been, it's been really, really bad. So, and then, yeah. And then the Rams have, you know, Stafford's taken over the team. Like exactly Sharpe's bull case that he let out in the preseason has happened.

Like Stafford has been mattering more than anyone. He's found an option in Puka. You know, Puka's taken over league by storm as well. So, you know, like you, you needed something like that to happen along with Stafford playing like, you know, towards the top of his career, like basically what he's playing right now. And then, you know, you can win, you can beat anyone. I mean, literally you can literally beat anyone. So, um, I, I don't know. I mean, at this point, if it got back to three, I'd probably buy some more Rams because I don't really care about Burrows playing at that point. Um, I, I, you did mention the Ravens there specifically too.

I wanted to talk about, I think we're starting to see Todd Munkin and like the passing game come into its own a little bit more as well. Specifically with Mark Andrews back, Odell Beckham suffered an injury, but we saw Nelson Aguilar fill in a little bit. And I think that speaks to some of the depth that we talked about before in preseason,

where Nelson Aguilar can be a reasonable wide receiver three for this offense. And Rashad Bateman still slowly working in like 50% of the snap. So excited to see how that progresses too. And they draw like an amazing matchup here against the cold secondary, which has gotten burned, you know, in two straight weeks.

And I think that they're probably going to get absolutely ripped here again by the Ravens. Ravens 26 and a half team total is something that's still out there. I think minus 120. So you're playing a little bit of juice, but that's something that is very interesting to me, especially if Anthony Richardson is involved. I think that helps just kind of the game state in terms of like the pace that the Colts will play at. I think that that will help from a scoring standpoint back and forth a little bit, but yeah, that's a look for me that I haven't pulled the trigger on, but I like quite a bit. A couple, that's a look for me that I haven't pulled the trigger on,

but I like quite a bit. A couple other team totals that are interesting to me on the right side of 17 and a half, taking the unders here. We're back at the Jets, 17 and a half on the under, because we're back into Zach Wilson territory. It's kind of an auto bet over the last handful of years. And Zach Wilson starts, if the Jets have a team total above 17, just banging the under. It's come in at a pretty substantial rate. You'll hear small sample data around Bill Belichick versus Zach Wilson. Those four games have not gone very well for Zach and the Jets historically. And I do, again, part of what I thought has kind of bared itself out. Patriots are going to be a team that loses a bunch of football games.

But their defense is going to be okay, especially when they play bad teams offensively. I think the Jets are that. And also still really bullish about what we're seeing from this Cleveland defense that I was extremely high on this season, and that's bared itself out to start as well. Under 17 and a half on the Titans is interesting to me. They're getting a ton of pressure. They are blitzing. They're getting home. It doesn't matter what they're doing. They've been a problem. And this Titans offensive line, I think, is going to have their hands full with this front in Cleveland.

So whether it's a game total or if you have questions with Nick Chubb being out, I like the Titans team total under 17.5 as well. Again, those have not been official plays for me, but definitely leans. Clark, any thoughts on anything else on the board for week three? Just one note on the Anthony Richardson thing, like the concussion protocol is such a black box and the teams never tell us exactly what's happening. But I did read a concerning line that said he had delayed symptoms, which to me means he's probably not playing this week. I think delayed symptoms means, you know, on Monday, something, something happened that signified that,

you know, I typically think if it's a quarterback, especially you're only going to play one week later. If you, you know, everything goes smoothly from game time to game time. And that hasn't been the case. So I would expect an art dementia at this point for the Colts. And I'm not really sure what to make of that.

It's true. I don't know. I don't either. I don't even know. I haven't looked at the splits pace wise to level. We're seeing pace wise with Anthony Richardson true. I don't know. I don't either. I don't even know. I haven't looked at the splits pace-wise, the level we're seeing pace-wise with Anthony Richardson, but I trust Shane Steichen to do the right thing. But yeah, in terms of the game state, that would be a little bit impactful. Connor, you're shaking your head. Any thoughts? Gardner came in and played pretty well. I mean, against the Texans. So I don't know how much that really matters, but he came in and

executed. I think that he's probably good enough to, I mean, Hey, considering my priors and Anthony Richardson, I think that Gardner Mitchell is certainly good enough to execute, uh, whatever they got laid out. As long as he's got enough reps this week. Um, I, you hit on two of the ones that I liked with the Titans, their Cardinals under 14 and a half against the Cowboys. I mean, I know it's low, but like, you're going to need a special teams touchdown or pick six to get over two scores against the Cowboys. I mean, their defense has been dominant, and that's an understatement to what they've been so far in the season.

Now they get the Cardinals, who Josh Dobbs looked, I guess, pretty good last week at times, but I think it was more of an indictment of the Giants' defense as being trash. And so that's where my mind went with it, more so than Dobbs and the Cardinals actually looking good. But I think under 14 and a half, there's an Dobbs and the Cardinals, like actually looking good. But, you know, I think under 14 and a half,

there's interesting look, uh, Raiders under 22 and a half points. I think the number is just a little bit wrong. 27 total points or two games. Like, uh, you know, I,

the matchup's not like bad or good in any way. I don't think, but like, I think in this spot here, like 22 and a half, just on the right side of a key number for me. So, uh,

I think the under there is interesting. Look, and then bears chiefs over, uh, I mean, chiefs went score 35 themselves. And now we got Justin field saying like, Oh, I'm just not going to think about it. In my mind, it means he's probably going to scramble a bunch and just do whatever he does. And, uh, you know, they were hanging in plenty of games last year, uh, because Justin fields was just like, you know, being a gamer out there. And so I think if he gets back to that, uh, we'll probably see, you know, being a gamer out there. And so I think if he gets back to that, we'll probably see, you know, 50 plus points a year pretty easily.

So we're looking at 47 and a half. I know betting it over on the Bears is pretty gross, but I think the Chiefs can carry most of their weight there. We had a good stat from Frank Amirante tweeted us out. Bears evens allowed 9.2 passing yards per attempt this season against Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield. And now they get Patrick Moms. I mean.

So anyways, those are my looks for the week. We talked about dancing around some stuff that needs to be talked about here because the people's parlay got home last week. Okay. You guys poo-pooed the people's parlay and they got home. Okay. So now we've got to go back to the well, because I don't know if you've seen

there are some big time money line what uh clark would call survivor leg uh parlay this week we called it the account maintenance parlay last week and uh you know i pushed it out because you guys laughed so i'm like you know what and then we never got more interaction on a push on a play than what i had on that uh like 40 crying emojis on your play there's a lot of poop emojis hopefully those people and you got it yeah damn so people should have put the poop emojis on my jets play really a lot of poop emojis but we got to go back to the well with the people's parlay with some of these money lines and connor's just gonna have to walk back some of his takes because he just kind of solidified a couple of the legs here.

We might have to add a leg because we've got some big ones. Dallas. I mean, is Dallas, first of all, it's going to be a home game, Dallas and Arizona. Like there's going to be so many Cowboys fans there that is getting done.

Was that line 12, 12 and a half Kansas city at home against the bears. I mean, look, the bears might be frisky if Justin Fields wants to do Justin Fields stuff again, but that doesn't mean that they're going to win in Kansas City. Baltimore is really interesting to me. Again, Gardner Minshew, either way, Baltimore is going to take care of business at home against a terrible Colts secondary.

And San Francisco is not losing tomorrow night on a short week at home against the Giants without Saquon Barkley. Like that is not happening. I'm sorry. Sorry that this has to be four legs this week, but we are plus 102 with these four money lines. Connor, you want to walk back any of those thoughts or you didn't have any Daniel Jones pro giant stuff. Is that where the leg, that's the leg that kills us this week? No, no. I mean, I think the Niners might score like 45 points in this giants team here on Thursday. Like I don't, they don't, they don't need CMC to do anything and they could roll out Elijah Mitchell and he might drop, drop a hundred yards and two toddies on him. So, uh, just with everything I've seen from the

giants. And I think coming into the season, we talked about too, like they're going to be really bad defensively and like they just didn't pan out last year. And now this year it's kind of coming to fruition early. So I don't know. I can't poke holes in it, but, you know, it's not my vibe. I get it, but it's not my vibe. What about teasing? If you want to do that instead, like what?

What happened to your fishy teaser? Numbers are so big. Yeah, so like, you know. Yeah, but like Kansas City and Dallas can get you below the 10 and the 7. Yeah, we can do that too. I'm playing around with stuff. If you are a long-time listener of the show, we used to do a fishy teaser of the week by me.

It was me, something to end the show with our guests. I would have a 3-4 leg teaser, have the guests have to poke a hole into where it didn't win. It was more for banter and conversation's sake to tie up the end of the show. But again, I think part of it is it seems to bother Clark so much that I really need to make sure it's a stable of the show.

His disdain and respect for me is dwindling every week that we talk about this. So, but the floor is yours. Tell me where this loses, sir. Ravens. I would have sanctioned it if I had Jaguars instead of Ravens. Okay, I did consider that. We could just go five legs. Clark is what I hear.

No, no, no, no, no. I, I think the Colts are a little bit underrated. I'm really been impressed with Shane Steichen and whether it's Richardson or Minshew, I think they're going to, like you said that their defense got gashed last week, but a lot of that was in garbage time. Like the Colts were up by 21 points in the second half. And so they were playing a lot of soft coverage and Stroud capitalized against that.

So before that they were pretty good on defense. Granted, Texans offensive line was a mess. Maybe the Ravens offensive line is a mess too. I don't know. The Bengals, Bengals had me doubting that, but yeah,

I, if, if I had to pick a loser, it's, it's the Ravens. Okay. Let's hear it. Plus one or two.

I don't know that I'm going to put the people's parlay in the discord yet we'll see um you know see if people watch the show get some discussion about it this week though that was discord i'm gonna put the poop emoji and the crying laughing one again just to make get the people going okay i've got to get week week three it worked last week so i'm gonna put good stuff what's that i'm for the cash symbol because it won't go reverse try to reverse jinx me um again we're talking about our discord that is a part of our betting subscription to four for four is where all of our official plays are again the bank subscription as you touched touched on at the top it gets you everything that we do um highly recommend it use promo code week two uh for 25

off four for four dot com slash plants again come hang out with us on Friday. Clark, myself, and Highslop for props. We'll be back on Wednesday to do this all again to unpack week four. So for Connor and Clark, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. you