Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 4 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions

Episode Date: September 27, 2023

Get ready to place your bets with our ULTIMATE Week 4 NFL Betting Guide! Dive into comprehensive analysis and insights on the best bets, odds, and predictions for this week's games featuring the Bills, Eagles, Dolphins, and more. Are Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins for real? Can we beat on the Eagles and D'Aandre Swift? Tune in to find out.Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, our guide is packed with valuable information to give you the edge you need on the Week 4 NFL betting markets. Don't miss out on the action; tune in to discover top picks and tips from our betting experts. Your winning streak begins here!Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:37 Saints vs Bucs Best Bets15:14 Bengals vs Titans Best Bets24:35 Ravens vs Browns Best Bets32:01 Commanders vs Eagles Best Bets41:29 Dolphins vs Bills Best Bets51:33 More Week 4 Bets54:29 2023 NFL Futures Bets59:02 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansBecome a 4for4 Bets YouTube Member  👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/@4for4Bets/joinSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

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Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. yeah hello and welcome to move wide presented by fan duel sportsbook i'm ryan noonan joined here as always by my friends to talk about week four nfl football sides and totals connor allen sharp clark connor start with you how we doing today buddy good another great week to you know handicap some games i think that this week is a little bit, has a couple of good, really good games and then a lot of just very bland games in my opinion. So I'm excited to dive into it. And I think that there's one game that I'm really, really excited to talk about specifically.

Clark, really close to getting the hat. The fedora was really close this week, but how's it going, buddy? It's good. Yeah. Monday night ruined me really. Just, just a tough night overall, but yeah, I'm excited about this week but uh how's it going buddy that's good yeah monday night ruined me really just just a tough night overall but um yeah i'm excited about this week there's there's a lot of three point favorites two and a half point favorites like these are the kind of games that can really go either way it's a big futures week right like a lot of these are the types of games that decide things like win total overs you know the games that could go either way so i'm excited about this this week of football yeah the majority of the games that could go either way. So I'm excited about this week of football. Yeah, the majority of the games actually

that we're going to talk about, the five here, there are multiple numbers available and they're all swinging around key numbers. So it is a vital week and see if we can lead anyone to take a side there. Three of us are going to be here every Wednesday of the season,

4 p.m. Eastern here on the 444Bets YouTube channel. Should be able to find the podcast in your podcast feeds every Wednesday evening. Subscribe to both so you do not miss a show. This is free content. Supporting it by liking, subscribing, thumbs up, five stars, reviews, comments, all those things go a long way in helping us. And it supports the content we do here at 444, the tools,

all the things we like to do. Believe it or not, the simple thumbs up and all those things help us get seen by more people. And that goes a long way in helping us do what we want to do here. So we appreciate it. If you are hanging out with us now on YouTube, go ahead and just jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite week four look is

that's currently on the board. We'd love to hear from you. Don't forget about the Prop Drop Show. If you are into player props, Connor, myself, and John Hyslop are here. Again, 3 p.m. Eastern, and that is also on the 444Bets YouTube channel. Handing out winners there weekly as well. Great time to scoop up the betting subscription at 444. That is where all the official plays that the three of us push out come from.

That is through our Discord. That is really where you want to be. Again, great like-minded community in the Discord, sweating any sport, any bet, anything that you could possibly do. I even had the NFL channel talking about the Ryder Cup yesterday. I feel bad. I hijacked the NFL betting channel for a minute, even though we have a golf one.

But also the betting sub gets access to everything that we do on 444. So if you're playing DFS, high stakes stakes you're grinding in season best ball you want any of the articles tools rankings projections all that stuff that comes with the betting sub too if you dabble in any of the pick'em sites underdog prize picks vivid picks we have channels and plays in the discord for that stuff as well four for four dot com slash plans more information for you here in the show notes all All right, Clark, like you said, we are kind of coming to the part where we're still early, still minimal in terms of sample size of data, but we have at least three games in the barrel for all these teams. And

that's a little bit encouraging. And now we have a bunch of like divisional games, all those things that you, as you mentioned, are a little bit bit close is there anything that you're doing like how do we start to weigh priors that we had coming into the season with the limited three game data that we have so far in 2023 yeah with three games for each team you can start doing some comparisons on how teams performed against this team versus other teams you know so a good example of this is a team we're about to talk about tampa bay buccaneers right they looked pretty good in the first two weeks. And then they really kind of shit the bed and in week three, I'm sorry, I'm not allowed to say that. But and so we have to contextualize that by saying, Okay, well, did they look good in weeks one and two? Or did they play

an own three Vikings team in which they were lucky to win, and a bottom of the barrel Bears team in which they were winning by three late, you know, so those two results kind of, you can recontextualize them with the added data point of them being completely inept at home against Philadelphia and be, okay, maybe we were a little bit ahead of, maybe I was a little bit ahead of myself and others that were betting on Tampa Bay. So bringing that expectation back in line with what we've seen and in line with our priors, to be frank, like we didn't the Bucs to be that great of a team. So that kind of result can help solidify how we contextualize other performances.

That's a good way to tee it off. We will start with that game. We have Tampa Bay in New Orleans. This is, again, important in terms of this division, someone winning the NFC South. This is an important game still. The Saints are currently on FanDuel, three-point favorites, the total at 40.5. There are some 3.5s popping out there in the market, so we can shop around. That is the FanDuel price. Specifically, key injuries to monitor here on both sides. Saints head coach Dennis Allen said that Derek Carr has a sprained AC joint.

He is week to week. I assume that means he will not be here. This looks like it's going to be James Winston and some key injuries on the Bucs side. This is part of my issue to begin with here, Connor, when we were handicapping the Bucs early in the season. On paper, coming into the season before the game started, the Bucs defense looked okay,

but they were paper thin in the back half and their top two corners, who are both very good, just consistently miss four to five games a year. We've already kind of started it with Carlton Davis. Jamal Dean got injured in that Philly game. We don't know the status for either of those games. Davis has missed the past two with a toe injury. I'm not really sure how close he was to being active last week. Probably back soon.

We don't know the status of the dean shoulder injury against the eagles on monday night it's not great um they are just getting really thin and problematic in the back half um alvin camaro back in this one too talk to me about this game yeah i think that both those guys are trending in the right direction so obviously as we record this on a wednesday we don't know for sure but i think that it's you know some encouraging practice support so far uh but but my key here is what you mentioned is Alvin Kamara coming back. I don't think that the saints, even with James Winston, really try and push the bill here and try and kind of threaten this Tampa Bay secondary. I think that they

actually go and try and focus. I can go massively run heavy here, kind of keep James contained like within his own box. And that's because Tampa Bay right now actually is the fourth worst rushing success rate allowed so far this season at 47.8%. And so they're only stopping that often. So it's really not very good so far on that end, even though they're like overall yards per carry, EPA, things like that look pretty good. So I think that could be a focus here for New Orleans to move the ball probably slowly and consistently. And then on the other side here, New Orleans defense has been really strong through two games, 10th in EPA, third in success rate. So I think that that's also an important distinction there.

I mean, just really allowed some big plays at the end of the last week's game against Green Bay. Like they were playing really well. I mean, they basically shut down Jordan Love in the entire first half. And then Jordan Love just made a couple of big plays, got them in the scoring position, and wound up winning the game. I mean, it was like, I wouldn't say a tale of two halves, but it kind of was in some senses that he didn't make any of the long, big plays in the first half and they did in the second half. And that ultimately decided the game when the Saints kind of went into their shell and were just, you know, really not like trying to score.

They were just trying not to lose the game basically. And then they wound up losing it anyway. So for me, I like the under in this spot. We're looking at 40 and a half, 41 still at circa. If you can grab that, I would assume because they took a lot of money from people that they respect and are probably just sitting at that 41. But I think the under here, I think we're going to see a lot of running on both sides, probably not a ton of success from the Tampa Bay side. And as Clark mentioned, they were really good against two of the worst defenses in the league and then played a defense that I don't even know for sure is really good.

I mean, like they're probably like good, I would say fringe five to 10 status, but I don't know if they should have made the Bucks or any Compton offense look that bad. And so that's kind of where I worry about in this spot where New Orleans, I would say is comparable, honestly, defensively to the Eagles, at least in my mind right now. Yeah. And that's kind of a play that you had right away earlier today, right? Clark, you're in on this, this under as well. Yeah. I like this game from two angles. I, the Saints are a play for me. I played them at minus

three. You can still get minus three, but you got to pay some juice. So I also like the under a big part of this is just, I feel like this is kind of similar to the Titans Browns game last week, where when one team dominates the line of scrimmage and the other team relies on winning the line of scrimmage in order to move the ball effectively, which is what I think will happen when the Bucs have the ball, it can get really ugly. And even if the other offense is not dominant,

which the Saints with Jameis Winston won't be a dominant offense against this Bucs defense, but it increases the number of possessions that you play over the course of the game because of how many three and outs the Bucs will have or how many turnovers. The Saints will just be, eventually they'll be put in a good position on offense and they can capitalize much better than the Bucs can. So last week, the Browns weren't that much better than the Titans as a team, but they were the only ones that could do anything in that defensive battle. And so I think we're

going to see the same thing here. Another defensive battle where both defenses have the edge and the Saints are just a much more competent offense. Their offensive line is better. Their play calling is better. The downgrade from Derek Carr to Jameis Winston is not as significant because of how much they use Taysom Hill, getting Alvin Kamara back, and the fact that Jameis Winston is a decent backup and that Derek Carr had not looked wholly comfortable in this offense yet. So this is one of those games where like, I, I, my numbers, I don't, I would never make numbers. I would never be a bookmaker because of the way that I handicap. I make the Saints by 10. So I'm so far off market on this game. But with the caveat, with the caveat that I, I flat bet, because sometimes I have these

edges and there's no evidence in my history that the size of the edge correlates to a higher winning percentage. It's basically once the edge gets to a certain level, I have a pretty consistent win percentage. So I'm playing this as a regular size bet, not thinking that I'm like that much smarter than the market. But I do think that there is significant reason to think the Saints are the better team here at home in a Saints environment that's tough. In a matchup that the Saints have dominated even when Tom Brady would play quarterback for the Bucks this has been a good matchup for the Saints um and this is not Tom Brady's Bucks so I I think this is a good a good spot for New Orleans and a good spot for the under did you shop any alts did you shop any like you know Saints nine and a half or anything like that no and that's the

other funky thing is like the reason why and this is also why the spread is so low, is nobody wants to lay a big number with a bad offense, especially against a decent defense. It just doesn't make any sense. It's really hard for a team to run up the score when they don't have a great offense. And so I think I'm not really looking for alts. I just think that there's good value

on betting the Saints to win, betting the Saints to cover three. It's not the type of game script where I think, you know, the Saints are just going to win 40 to zero. It's more of like a tough fought game that the Saints are going to win. You were jumping in there, Connor. What did you want to say? Yeah, no, I wanted to ask Clark if this was a similar situation

to the Niners-Eagles game where he caught a lot of flack on Twitter for saying this game should have never been, you know, X price, whatever. I think that's what that was, right? And then Brock Purdy gets injured, and then you just get dunked on all week, you know, by, by Eagles fans. Um, I understand why it's not the same situation, but considering the, how like New Orleans is not like a, you know, a dot that dominant of the team. But I do wonder, I was like, kind of like Newton, if you're going to play alts or if you're going to have like a super, super strong stance on some, you know, lad no no i mean we came into the year thinking the saints were

significantly better than the bucks and i don't think we've seen any evidence to the contrary um and you can say well you know the saint who have the saints beaten but their defense looked really good against the titans keeping them out of the end zone the entire game even though there were some short fields they completely clamped down on carolina before they got all those injuries and then they were completely shutting down the Packers before a furious comeback late to, you know, to lose 18,

17. And they still were set up to win the game of the field goal. Like I think the saints are who we thought they were. And I think the bucks are who we thought they were. And the gap between these teams is pretty significant. Yeah. I think the bucks are who I thought they were. I think it was matchup specific.

I think there becomes a ton of pressure in this situation in particular not just this game but like the current bucks environment because they have no running game to speak of they are completely inept on the ground they kind of were last year but you can hide that a little bit when you have tom brady who especially just getting it out so quickly and that is not baker's Baker's been better at that. And Dave Kanellis deserves some credit for what he's been able to kind of structure there. But again, they took advantage of a Vikings team that everyone's taking advantage of

and the Bears are an absolute dumpster fire. So it becomes problematic here. The Saints have allowed the lowest adjusted completion percentage in the league through three weeks. And they haven't really been getting any pressure in the quarterback. And that's something they typically do pretty well, regardless of it being like not one guy, like it's something that Dennis Allen, I think does a good job at scheming up. And they haven't

even really been doing that late of late. So I feel like this is a really tough spot for this, this Bucs offense in particular, we're like 18 and a half or so in terms of the team total. So I'm kind of with you guys in terms of overall game environment maybe down and maybe isolating the bucks here because i think that they they struggle quite a bit too this whole like jamis derrick car thing is interesting to me too because like derrick car was it's weird like third in the league and averaged up the target last year it's like leading the league this year before he goes down jamis comes in and he's just like 2.1 seconds out like right away just like first read out and it's like four 2.1 seconds out like right away just like first

read out and it's like four and a half a dot like just this like old school Derek Carr stuff so I don't know maybe again not like game planning per se maybe this helps him a little bit but it's just it's just interesting to see this like just juxtaposition with what these two guys have been historically um just being a little bit switched but yeah I mean I don't know I do agree that James is probably one of the league's better backup quarterbacks is he going to go out and and win and carry them not necessarily and i don't think they're going to ask him to so i understand why you would take that uh the game under here as well so yeah i think the bucks are are a little fraudulent they need these guys to get back on the defensive side but even then i'm not super encouraged that they're going

to be able to do much here to uh to score a ton and get this game into where they need it to be to win. Without Davis and Dean, though, I mean, if for some reason they did get pushed, I would love to see another vintage Winston game. I mean, it's not good for betting really most of the time, but it's just so fun to watch. You know, just goes out there throwing yellow balls, just does whatever he wants. That's bad for the under. That's bad for the under. It's bad for the under. I understand that for the under. It's bad for the under. I understand that.

Because I don't think the likelihood of it is very high. I think it's very, very low. I want to push back on the bad for the under thing. Because Winston's – There's six ways to be reckless. And Winston's recklessness is, I'm just going to chuck it 50 yards downfield and hope my guy gets it.

Like, okay, so he throws an interception. It's just like a punt. He's not the kind of guy that's like, I'm going to throw a screen pass into it. You know, oncoming defender is going to pick, pick six it like that's not his style of aggressiveness. So I'm not,

I'm not as afraid of the Jamis factor when I'm playing the under. All right. That's fair. That's fair consideration. I mean, last week it was very different. He was the guy checking down, throwing in the flat,

getting it out quick. Again, small sample. They were felt like they were trying to hold on and not lose that game like Connor said. So different beast. All right. Next, Cincinnati is on the road in Tennessee. Tennessee is getting two and a half here. There are some twos in the market. Two and a half is the number here on FanDuel. A total here as well, 40 and a half. It was not really a particularly impressive performance.

Played calling, head-scratching at times there on Monday night, but Joe Borough came out on the other side of it. They kind of turned it up in the second half and handled their business against the Rams, which is really good to see. Definitely encouraged in a matchup here that just continues to funnel work. Hope they can build off of what they did in the second half against the Tennessee team that is really struggling to stop anyone in the passing game here. Clark, I'll let you get started with Titans-Bengals. Yeah, this one is a tough game to match up on both sides, right? If Burrow still cannot move, if he's limited to being within the pocket like he was on Monday night,

then I think this is going to be a struggle for the Bengals. But it's also possible that he can really get in rhythm with those quick throws, right? If the Titans weakness is the secondary, you know, he started hitting Jamar Chase all day on Monday night. And if he can get that going, so that within two seconds, you know, two, two and a half seconds, he's getting the ball out, then I think the Bengals might have some success. But it's just going to be really tough if they can't run the ball and Jabra has no mobility. It's just not a team that I want to be backing. But on the other side of the ball, I'm not convinced that the Titans offensive line can win this matchup. It's kind of, it could go either way, right? And the Titans are the kind of team where if they win the

offensive line matchup, they can be a fine offense. They can compete. They did it against the Chargers, but when their offensive line doesn't win, it happened against New Orleans, it happened against Cleveland, this offense is completely inept. They just don't have a second option. It's like, well, we can't run the ball. We don't have playmakers on the outside. Daniel Hopkins is fine, but he's not making plays like he used to. So this is the kind of game where I think I have too many question marks

on both sides of the ball. There's game planning question marks, burrow question marks. I just can't bet this, but it's going to be a really interesting game for me to watch because I don't want to miss like when the Bengals start to look like the Bengals, right? When burrow can actually show mobility and get outside the pocket, I want to be adjusting to them quickly. So it's going to be something I'm watching closely,

but not betting on happening in this game. Connor Clark's got a lot of question marks. I have no question marks on Ryan Tannehill. I'm all the way out. I was out to start the year. It was part of why I think you were the same way. I knew you took an early play on an under on the team total. I'm really just kind of, I'm out.

It has not been really good. The offensive line, I don't think he can make up for at this point. I don't think he's willing to for at this point. I don't think he's willing to, which I think is really a problem. He is unwilling to scramble. He is taking a sack at an insane rate. And part of it was last year for me. He basically hovered around like low to mid-teens in his pressure to sack rate. Last year, it doubled. He started, what, 9, 10 games and jumped up to like 28%. This season, it is 38.2%. 38.2% of the time he gets pressured, it converts to a sack. He has scrambled three times for five yards in the season. So you have a guy that is dropping back, waiting to get hit. He's not looking to create. He's not looking to step up in the pocket. The film was really bad. I know that the Browns can do that to teams, but it is really problematic. They cannot get anything going on the ground. 30th and yards per drive, the 29th and points per drive. That includes a matchup against the chargers who are among the bottom three in both of those metrics. So they had somewhat of a cupcake

on the schedule and they're still bottom five in both of those metrics. I just have real concerns that they're going to give him a pocket to do anything with here. And I'm encouraged by what I saw with the Bengals. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah. So, I mean, coming into last week with Burrow banged up, I thought that they were probably just going to hand the ball off a lot, run the ball a ton. And they did almost the exact opposite. And I realized that it's because that Joe Burrow just like can't line up under center.

I mean, they came out in shotgun 98% of the time, went to the quick game because he just like couldn't turn around and hand the ball off consistently without, you know, injuring his calf and they didn't want to put more stress on it. So in hindsight, of course it makes sense, right? So what I, when I started digging deeper, because my initial question was the same as Clark's like, okay, well, can the short game work against his Titans or is it only like, you know, the long game? Because the Titans are getting beat everywhere right now, but you don't know if it's like, if the short game can consistently work against the Titans. So I dug in deeper, um, 36 to 49, uh, past times last week for Joe Burrow within nine yards of the line of

scrimmage. Now we're looking at this Titans team that on throws within one to nine yards of scrim, uh, from the line of scrimmage are allowing a 91% completion rate. 40 of 44 pass attempts so far this season. Between one and nine yards have been completed. And one of those incompletions was a drop. So, I mean, it's just like you cannot draw a better game plan of like, I don't care if Zach Taylor decides to do whatever he wants to do. The only way that this is a disaster for the Bengals offense would be if they decide to go under center and run the ball right in the teeth of the Titans, like defense. If they

do exactly what they did last time, Joe Burrow is going to be peppering Jamar Chase, Tyler board, anyone quick. Um, and just like shredding the Titan defense here. So that's like where I'm at with, with the offense. So I think that the Bengals have an edge here offensively, even if Burrow isn't mobile, because that again was one of my other questions. Like, is he going to be making those extending the plays? But even in the second half of last week, like he made a couple of other plays.

He threw the ball a little bit further down the field a couple of times. It wasn't perfect, but it was more than what we saw in the first half here. Now, my other question is that Kansas, Cincinnati, Cincinnati defense stopped the Titans running game. I think that would be universally a yes.

If in most situations, the Titans run defense so far, just weirdly hasn't been good. 26 in EPA, 24th and success rate so far. So that would be my only question of like, if the Titans can push back that way, but like their offensive line is so bad.

Derek Henry's yards before contact is terrible, but his yards after contact is also bad. Like he's not doing either thing well. So for me, it's like a lean on the bangles here i think because i expect them to have success offensively i expect the titans to still struggle so probably like a lean under i would say and off and the bangles side i mean everyone thought this is the worst offensive line in the league with peter skronsky uh first round

pick he did not play again last week did not practice again today not encouraging signs here so i don't know then the burrow thing too like yeah he's not mobile they did a lot of shotgun they were second league in shotgun rate last year like 67 they're comfortable there it's not like a drastic change from what they like to do they obviously lean that way in general and the titans have not been getting pressure they have gotten pressure on just 28.6 percent of dropbacks that is the fifth lowest rate in the league so they have not been a team that has been really putting a ton of pressure on the other team as well.

So you can get the ball out quick here. Like you said, bounce back spot for Tee Higgins, who had a couple of bad drops. Jamar Chase moved to the slot in the second half and ran almost exclusively out of the slot, which I think was really encouraging to see. Like, hey, let's scheme things up successfully for our best player. We need to get the ball out quick. We can win closer to the line of scrimmage let's move him in that's encouraging to see when your coach is able to adjust based

off of what you need to do based off of the limitations of the quarterback so yeah i absolutely love the bangles here um anything less than three like i said two and a half and two in the marketplace um i like it quite a bit i understand clark's concerns but again like i just i see nothing that makes me think that the titans can can hang here you're gonna have to have another situation which is in the range of outcomes where the bangles just continue to shoot themselves in the foot really struggle to sustain drives and it's just kind of absolute like they pull them down in the mud together and this is 13 10 or something like that that would still cover the two and a half uh but that's kind of the only way i see this game going battle i i think that bengals defense is much more concerning than most people do i mean they they didn't look good in

week one against the browns and we now know the browns at least to sean watson sucks they look terrible in week two against the ravens they got zero pressure on on lamar jackson despite being down two starting offensive linemen. And in the Ravens' other two games against the Colts and the Texans, both of those teams did a much better job getting pressure on Lamar than the Bengals did. And then on Monday night, it was the same thing until Alaric Jackson went down for the Rams. And they're already thin at offensive line. They lost the starting tackle. Then they started to get pressure on Matthew Stafford. Before that, the Rams were moving the ball pretty well. They got that touchdown that, you know, I think it was at well scored, should have been, should have been a touchdown.

They had some, you know, brutal turnovers and red zone, bad luck. But like the, the, the Bengals defense has done nothing to me to convince me that they can be the type of team that shuts down even, even a weak Titans offensive line. That would be my concern if I was betting the Bengals. Yeah. We've seen this the last couple of years with the Bengals getting off to slow starts and then kind of turning it up. And I think the only new personnel defensively has been playing really well.

Like Dax Hill, I think has really answered a lot of the questions at safety. He's been playing excellent ball. The rest of the team is mostly intact. So actually maybe even better getting, you know, Chigabuzie back and some of that stuff. So like I believe in Luan Murillo and what he's going to be able to do.

So I will buy the Bengals and the, you know, the rest of the season. But yeah, I think it's fair. They really struggled to get off the field against the Ravens. And that was problematic, especially to your point, when we look at what the Colts and the Texans

have done against them as well. So it's going to be an interesting thing to watch. Strong lean for me on the Bengals here. Minus two, two and a half. More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat.

Their interactive seat map gives you 360-degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best views of those pivotal plays. And if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. Well, we'll move on to a couple of teams we just talked about. We have Baltimore and Cleveland.

This is a two and a half on FanDuel. Again, 40 and a half to total. There's basically twos everywhere else. So FanDuel is a little bit still stronger there in the marketplace. This has been like one of the biggest stories in the season. This is Cleveland defense. Talked about it a lot this offseason. We thought they were going to be awesome. They've really taken advantage of some soft scheduling early, but they've been awesome. I mean, 78% success rate.

They have led the league in success rate every week so far. And the top three performances in success rate have been the three Browns games all year. So no one at any point has had a better game than the three of the Browns have had. So really encouraging to see that talent. They were fully healthy. It looks like Greg Newsome will be back for this one. So they're coming in full strength and continue to be a problem. And we'll see what the Ravens can do here. Clark, I'll let you get started on Ravens Browns. Yeah, the Browns defense has been so impressive. One thing they haven't had to deal with yet is a truly mobile quarterback, quarterback that can beat you by getting outside the pocket, right?

They played Kenny Pickett. They played Joe Burrow with, you know, whatever is going on with him. And then Ryan Tannehill, like you said, who's not getting mobile. So Lamar Jackson is going to present a different kind of challenge to anything they've had to face. I think they're up to the task. Like they're stacked at every level. They're well-schemed. I it's not like there's anything intrinsically about their scheme that I think is more vulnerable to a quarterback like

Lamar Jackson. It's just something we haven't seen yet. Right. And, and, and Lamar Jackson has that gravity effect that can really change the way defenses have to play him. So there's a, there's a little bit of an outstanding question there, but it's not something that's going to really swing my bet. Um, what swings my bet here bet here is the Ravens injuries. I mean, two offensive linemen plus OBJ missed last week. And then on defense, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams, and Owe as well missed last week. Those are really important players. And so my handicap of the game, when I run the numbers with all those guys playing, you know, I like sort of like Browns minus two-ish. So if you can get the plus three with the Ravens, great.

But if all those guys are missing, I like Browns, you know, minus four, minus four and a half. So if you can get the Browns minus two and a half, that's good. So it just, I have too many question marks with the injuries to play it now. I'll probably end up not playing it because the line will react to whatever the injury news dictates and someone will have the information before I have it. That's just not how I handicap. But this is going to be a crucial game, like I was saying earlier, for futures, right? This is a division that's wide open. The Bengals are not who we thought they were. They're injured. They're not as good on defense. And I don't really believe in the Steelers. They haven't

looked good, even though they've won two games. This is a huge game for the division. And in the AFC playoffs, winning the division and getting that first round home game is going to be massive. So I think this is a crucial game. And if the Ravens can win on the road, I think that really puts them in a driver's seat for the division. So I think they're going to try to push those guys back if they can. Yeah, Connor, we don't have the answers specifically yet but ronnie staley and tyler linderbaum did practice today and that is encouraging so pretty massive uh returners for the ravens if they are to come back and i think the ravens in terms of like what we've seen with lamar that clark is touching on i think is encouraging we were kind of wondering what was going on in week one it was seven percent rush rate design rush rate for for lamar um jumped up to 19 in week two 32 last week against the colts and he's scrambling at the

league's highest rate when he's pressured so we're seeing lamar you know it is full lamar um you know rushing it's it's not this like all right we're gonna sit in the pocket and really you know try to utilize tom mungan's offense to be just a pocket passer. It's like, no, like let's do all of it. Right. Why not both? So good news on the injury front. What do you think here in this Ravens Browns matchup? Yeah. Just to contextualize to like how good the Browns D has been historically. So they're allowing just 163 total yards per game through three games. Like if you go back to 2000 over the course of a season, the next closest team is the Steelers at 237 yards per game. So they're outperforming the best defense in history in yards per game by 70 yards per

game right now, which is obviously unsustainable. That's not going to be the case. But that's just for reference of how good they're playing right now. And so another key in this matchup, I think, will be pressure on Lamar Jackson right now. So Cleveland right now, according to Pro Football Reference, and I know that pressure rate varies by a couple of different sites. They have them at 32%, which is tops in the league. And I think in a couple other spots, like top three, four, but either way, you know, Cleveland gets plenty of pressure on the quarterback. And right now Lamar Jackson under pressure, completing just six of 16 passes for

56 yards with an interception. So averaging like three and a half yards per attempt under pressure. And now we have, you know, Rashad Bateman potentially missing time. We have, uh, you know, literally we're basically just sounding like Zay Flowers, Nelson Aguilar, and like coming in, you know, something we talked about is like a pro Ravens take was like, oh, they have so much depth of the wide receiver position. You know, like now it's like OBJ is out Rashad Bateman might miss time. Mark Andrews is kind of like working his way back in there. Yeah. Brian mentioned there in the chat, like there's so many different factors that we were pretty bullish on potentially this passing game. And to be honest, like it just continuously through three games

kind of left more to be desired for me. You know, like I think it's been at times good, but just like not enough. And now you're running into like this buzzsaw that's been the Brown. So I think Clark's point there where maybe the mobility of Lamar, you know, comes into play here and is able to see more from Baltimore than we've seen from other offices against them. But like, if that's not part of Todd Munkin's plan, and if he's trying to drop back a bunch and just like sit there, I mean, Lamar's toast. Like he's going to throw for less than 100 yards. And so that's, that's a certainly a range of outcome here. Yeah. I mean, less than than 100 yards is a strong take i don't even put a clown suit on that or whoa i mean hey it's a hot take you know if you want to

give me some some plus odds there i'll take it but again it also relies on him not like you know i don't think anyone in their right mind just drops lamar back to pass against this defense if they do that then i mean monken's on some shit yeah we didn't talk about just sean watson it was great to see him make a layup last week against the titans was a layup you want to be able to still make layups would have been really concerning if he could not do that um luckily he did um you know you had a good handicap there we got hosed on a um marty cooper should have been touchdown that would have put watson over the 300 yard mark but uh yeah interesting to see again that we get into some other teams that are

are not the titans defensively in terms of past defense again i don't know that the ravens are much either um they have some injuries in the back half as well so i still have concerns i want to see watson do it against a team that i think is you know not the worst past defense in the league i guess uh before i really have a lot of just stand back on the browns again still without nick chubb that's going to be a problem um offensive line injuries as well so those things are going to be problematic too so this is going to be a great game i think this is going to be to clark's point like it's going to be impactful in terms of futures but i think it's going to be an impactful thing to see these teams kind of a better litmus test than maybe what ravens bangles

was because of some of the other injury issues that were kind of impacting that one. So it's going to be a good one to watch. Um, no real leans for me here. The total might be a little bit low, but, um, not an actionable play for me right now. On the Browns too. It's important to note, like they were super, you know, run heavy with Nick Chubb and then they switched midway once he got injured to like pass heavy, but then that obviously continuing it's a Titan. So like, was that matchup based? Was that what they're going to do from now on? Like, I think that's pretty important to watch for in this game where I don't think that the matchup dictates either one being the right approach.

So I think that's something to watch for. All right. Another division game. We have the commanders in Philly. FanDuel has this Philly minus eight and a half total at 44 and a half. There are eights out there in the marketplace. There are 43 and a halves out there in the marketplace. So that's a key number in totals.

So if you have a lean shop around there, those are impactful numbers. Again, these divisional games happen twice a year. These two played two very different games last year. The Eagles went into Washington DC and absolutely just boat race them in the first half last year. And then late in the first half last year. And then late in the year, the Commanders go into Philadelphia and knock them off in a primetime spot in their undefeated season, which I think was really interesting too. Clark, you've played this game.

You have a position. The floor is yours. Commanders, Eagles. I like Washington getting the eight and a half points. Last year in that primetime game, like you said, they showed the kind of blueprint for beating the Eagles, which is, you know, churn up the clock with a good run game that kind of consistently gains yards, get short third downs and just kind of, you know,

extend those drives by winning up front. And I think the Eagles defense, I mean, other than their interior defensive line, which looks really, really good, they haven't been that impressive to me this year. Getting re-blanketship back was big on Monday night, but it just seems like most quarterbacks have been able to, when they've played aggressively,

have been able to throw downfield on the Eagles. You know, Mac Jones did it in comeback mode. Kirk Cousins did it in comeback mode. Even Baker Mayfield, when the Bucs finally were like, okay, we're going to stop running the ball. It was like 25 yard completion, 25 yard completion. They got in the end zone. It was garbage time. But that's the type of situation that we could have here, right? Is Philadelphia takes the lead and then Sam Howell's playing in garbage time. And Howell can play aggressively and he can throw downfield. He sees things. He's got good receivers. This isn't an Eagles defense

that is just stopping people from playing catch-up so getting over the touchdown is big but i also think you know having fewer drives both offenses are probably going to run the ball a lot probably going to have to rely on those third down conversions it's just not going to be the type of game where like last week right the washington moved the ball fairly well against buffalo but they just had a lot of really, really badly timed turnovers. Fourth down failure is a pick six here. It runs up the score in a game that really wasn't as one-sided as the scoreboard looks. So I don't think the Eagles are anywhere close to the Bills level.

And granted, the game's in Philadelphia, but the Bills are only five and a half point favorites at close. So I think there's value here on Washington. I haven't really changed my opinion on either team much after last week. I think the look ahead was seven, but the market really reacted violently to the Eagles impressive win against Tampa Bay

and Washington's demoralizing loss against the Bills. When to me, both of those results, you know, now looking how I, you know, grade the teams now, like both of those results seem fairly, you know, within the range of outcomes. So yeah, it My only pushback there is that they haven't done that yet with Sam Howell. They're asking Sam Howell to win with efficiency. They're skewing pass heavy. They're fifth in pass rate over

expectation. And out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he's 31st in average depth of target. They have attempted the lowest rate of deep passes in the league he has dropped back or he's made a hunt like 99 attempts they have three pass attempts that have traveled 20 plus yards in the air so they are not trying to even last week in garbage time try to win with any chunk plays which i do think you can maybe get to on philadelphia more so again three sample size. It's 123 dropbacks. The problem with that is that he loves to take sacks. I mean, he loves to take sacks even without last week's game where the bills were a

problem. So that was kind of his MO sometimes in Carolina. It's definitely been his problem so far here. And again, like that can be definitely what Philly does really well and how this game becomes really problematic really quickly. But again, with the line movement here, I don't hate what you did. I definitely leaned Philly, but not a strong stance for me.

Connor, what do you think here about this divisional matchup here? You mentioned last year too when they met and then the commanders were able to pull it off. So this Eagles team and this Eagles defense, at least through three weeks, looks significantly different in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. So last year, their biggest weakness was the run defense teams could control the clock, you know, be able to run the ball and their pass defense was like borderline elite, um, by all the numbers. And now it's a

little bit switched, you know, their run defense has been awesome. They're allowing like 2.8 yards per carry right now. Now they've shut down a bunch of, I would say lackluster running games to date. Um, but at the same time, I think that, you know, Washington's offensive line, there's still some questions there. So I don't think that they're like some dominant unit that's going to be able to automatically win in the trenches. So I think that's more of a question mark in terms of that strategy. I do have a little bit more confidence than you do, Noonan, I think, than in somehow moving

the ball on this Eagles team. Like Clark mentioned with the Buffalo game. So our friends over at Sportfolio Kings launched a new metric called EDP, which is like basically on a drive level instead of EPA, which is like, you know, on a play level. So they, if you just focus on drive level metrics, they had the game as a tie against the bills, which is shocking given the result. But basically it was like, you know, they'd get five expected points and then they'd throw a turn, they'd like throw a pick or like, you know, miss a field goal or have something like that.

So I think some of that is obviously a skill like capitalizing the red zone matters, you know, like being able to consistently do that matters. But the point of moving the ball, I think, is kind of reflected in that metric. So I thought that that was interesting and worth noting regardless. Now, that being said, I don't know if I love, you know, betting the commanders here because of the points that I mentioned. Like they're not probably not going to run the ball in my mind, and so it's going to be a lot of pressure on Sam Howell to move it through the air. And so if that can happen, the commanders will cover. If not, I mean, I don't think we're going to see another Bucs game, but I guess that's

in the range of outcomes if that doesn't happen. Yeah, I would push back a little bit on the Eagles rushing defense being good. I mean, they played a banged up New England offensive line. They played a banged up Vikings offensive line that can't run the ball. And they played the Bucks who can't run the ball and just like ran it up up the middle with no creativity. Washington and Eric Biennemi can scheme up more creative runs and screen passes to get their running backs in space against this Eagles front. So I do think it's a, it's a pretty, you know, we saw what the chiefs offense did in the Superbowl last year. Granted, it is a little bit of a different defense, but Eric B enemy does have those creative play, you know, play calling tendencies.

And the running backs are able to do a little bit things a little bit differently than some of the other opponents that Eagles have faced. The other thing is Sam Howell is terrible, terrible at diagnosing outside pressure. Like he just doesn't see it. It's when it gets behind than some of the other opponents the Eagles have faced. The other thing is Sam Howell is terrible, terrible at diagnosing outside pressure. Like he just doesn't see it. It's when it gets behind him, you know, and gets him from behind on the edges. He can see the interior pressure

and he's actually pretty mobile and good at getting outside of the pocket, but he has to see the pressure. And so when the Eagles pressure comes from the middle, I think that's actually pretty good for Howell to get to the outside of the pocket and make some plays see the pressure. And so when the Eagles pressure comes from the middle, I think that's actually pretty good for Howell to get to the outside of the pocket and make some plays on the run. So I think this is a fairly decent matchup

for the offense, even though we've seen Howell struggle with taking sacks. Yeah, it's not that I don't believe in him necessarily. I'm just telling you that currently, that's not how Washington's asking him to win. So at a certain point, he's got to let loose or like the enemy has got to do something a little bit different

and leverage Terry McLaurin's ability to get open deep. We think that Jahan Dotson can win that way as well. And they're just not asking him to do it currently. So yeah, I kind of agree a little bit too. Like I wanted like, I like new metrics. I like drive efficiency metrics. If a drive, if a metric is telling you that that game was tied, that metric needs to go into the garbage

or they need to go back and re-watch it or do something different. That was not that game. I was trying to sort that- More stable week to week than EPA by a lot, like over years. I'm not pushing back against the metric. I'm just telling you, I watched the game.

I was trying to sweat the bills over team total. It was not a coin flip of a game. And I understand that there are things in there that become one-offs that you want to neutralize and chalk up to luck or variance and stuff like that. Again, not specifically talking about the metric, I'm just saying watching the football game, that was a one-sided dominant affair that the quarterback looks not prepared to, to play in. Yeah.

I do a lot of similar things that the EDP metric does. And I had it by bills by about 11 points. So, I mean, yeah, like it wasn't like the score could have been closer than 37 to three, but the bills dominated that game. I mean,

they were clearly better. And I just to be clear, I'm not trying to argue that I'm just trying to say that, you know, the commander should have scored more than three points. Like that was the main point there you know like that's yeah yeah they gotta ask sam to do it they gotta ask him like you have the weapons that can win downfields i mean we love terry mcclure and um you know i've been i was you know just riding driving the bus for johan

dotson all off season like he can win deep downfield um so let's let's say how we'll rip a little bit like let's see it right um so i think carter makes a really good point in terms of like the processing up close we saw some of that against denver where he was you know able to diagnose what was coming right down his throat step up move his feet step up in the pocket and make some plays deep down field that was that touchdown pass to mcclellan is one of the three passes that have traveled more than 20 yards down the field but like do it a little bit more that's all so um you know i just want to see it a little bit first all right next is the game that we've been waiting for i think the best game so far this season we have miami on the road and buffalo uh fanduel has this as three points on buffalo's side uh there are two and a halves and a few books.

53 and a half is the total at FanDuel. There are some 54s. So again, these are key numbers. 53, 54 is an important, subtle move in terms of totals around key numbers. Obviously, three and two and a half are as well. But again, both teams coming off of very impressive wins. Again, you can talk about how impressive Buffalo was. I thought it was pretty impressive.

Miami, obviously, you cannot listen to any football content this week and not hear about how insane 70 points is to score 10 touchdowns in the NFL. It is just absolutely wild. Eight from your running backs, massive efficiency. We were all over Tyreek on the prop show, and that came to fruition instantly in that game. They are definitely doing things a little bit differently. We were all over Tyreek on the prop show, and that came to fruition instantly in that game. They are definitely doing things a little bit differently. Our friend Ben Solak over at the Ringer this week wrote a piece that is, you know, we laugh and kind of poke holes on, like, rates through three games,

you know, trying to pull three-game samples out into forecasting over the course of the season. And Ben is not afraid to dig his feet in there and talk about what we might be witnessing here historically from miami's offense if tua can stay healthy and these things can continue to get going they did it without jaylen wattle too which i think is really uh important to note uh and again like denver's defense isn't great but like no one i don't think anyone thought denver's defense was the worst in the league so last week was kind of really impressive to see but both offenses are tops they're one and two in points per drive they're both top three in're one and two in points per drive.

They're both top three in EPA per play in yards per drive. Balanced attack. I think defensively, the edge clearly belongs to the Bills, Connor. Should be a great one to watch here. What are your thoughts on Miami and Buffalo? Yeah, I think my biggest note on this was that Buffalo's defense on paper looks really good. But when you factor in who they played, I think that they're massively overrated and could be in for like a big wake-up call here they played against the commanders jets and the raiders i mean of course their metrics better look good if they're any

reasonable defense you know like if their metrics don't look good against those teams then you're probably just a really bad defense so my point here is like they're like top three in basically every metric epa you know success rate all that stuff so now they're getting a dolphins team that's running you know motion like a 50, 30% higher than league average. They're doing everything possible. And they've completely adapted and innovated from what we saw last year, which was so heavily reliant on RPOs and spacing. And they didn't have much of a running game last year. They weren't able to get things going. So when teams counterpunched that, like we saw what the Chargers do last year and didn't do this year, but they did last year successfully. They weren't able to get things going. So like when teams counterpunch that, like we saw what the chargers do last year and didn't do this year, but they did last year successfully. Like

they didn't really have much of an answer at certain times this year. It seems like they have that answer in to anything. Now we haven't really seen a team come in and be like, okay, we're going to stop this right away. And then you have to figure it out mid game, but it seems like their game plans through three games have just been so strong in terms of like, are they gonna be able to stop this? And if not though, they have so many other weapons in their arsenal at this point where whether it is the running game with most certain h a chan h and now is that what it is h yeah i don't know anymore a chan um and and they also you know are just able to pass the ball in different ways like spread the guys out doesn't always have to be an rpo so like there's so many different things that they can do i bet this at

over 53 and a half now is my note i was like I was like, that's too low. You know, I, I not seeing any on the board right now. I still lean over at 54 and a half. If not Miami dolphins team total, I think is too low. 25 and a half, I think is borderline criminal at this point. Uh, and so, yeah, I really like this over here. I don't really know what the dolphin or what the dolphins D is going to stop. Like the bills either. That's's the issue is like i think the bills have plenty of success too like the whole vic fangio thing and translating down at dolphins events is just like not come to fruition at all the dolphins right now are dead last in success rate in in defense like overall on a play-to-play basis and their bottom five in both run defense and pass events like overall so it's like what i mean the bills

are looking great they're rolling right now they're playing well like I guess the only counter argument you could make is that like maybe they're able to keep the ball in front of them a little bit more but that doesn't pan out either so it's like nothing that we thought the bull cases for the Dolphins has panned out so far defensively and offensively they've been significantly significantly better than what we've seen than what we thought so yeah I think I'm in the over here I don't know maybe you guys can convince me to take a pick a side here though more specifically i had the miami team total uh my notes for the you know end of the show section is definitely something that i've circled that i'm i'm looking at i don't believe that the bills defense is fraudulent i do believe

that they've played a soft schedule but they've been good um under sean mcdermott's for years now they have some maybe injury issues i don't know if we need to be super concerned about micah hyde and jordan poyer not practicing today those may be veteran rest days it's a wednesday practice report so we need to wait and see uh what happens with those guys it could just be you know maintenance coming off of uh you know a busy start to the season but yeah um, Clark, floor is yours. It is going to be a fantastic football game to watch. I kind of agree with Connor. I don't really see a play for an under. We've seen Josh Allen against Vic Fangio defenses,

and it's gone very well for Allen a couple of times in his career too. I'm really, really excited about this game. I think, I mean, the over seems like the obvious play. I do remember last year when they played early in the season and the Bills had really long drawn out drives, you know, 15 play drive type things. And there was some missed scoring opportunities.

I think it ended 21-19 or something. Yeah, I think that's the blueprint that the Bills may want to go for. They built the, you know, they beefed up their offensive line. They're running a lot more two tight end sets. The idea of them, Josh Allen's ADOT is down. The idea of them kind of moving more slowly up and down the field,

in part to keep the Dolphins' offense off the field, and also in part just to lean on mistake-free football and avoid those kind of boneheaded mistakes Josh Allen can make. That would be, I think, the key to the under, really. I don't think the key to the under is, oh, these defenses are going to dominate. That's just not a realistic proposition. It's just going to be, do they get touchdowns in the red zone? Do they get explosive plays? And if those two things happen, this game's going to go over. I personally, I can't bet this game. This is back to a process question for me. And early in the season,

it's really hard for me to predict performances of teams that have outlier performances because I'm basing it on my performance grades from watching every snap. And if the Dolphins are who they've graded to be so far in offense, then they are by far the best offense I've ever graded. Like they're better than Patrick Mahomes ever was.

And I just don't, I just like, I can't believe that that's true. Like there's going to be some regression. Maybe there's not, that's the thing. I'm not betting against it. I'm not saying you should be betting the bills because you know, the dolphins are going to regress, but I'm not betting.

I'm not going to bet the bills. I'm not going to bet the dolphins. It's one of those games where like, I need more data before I can really have a number that I trust when making numbers with the dolphins. I'm not there yet. I'm going to need more weeks. This is a big week for that because the bills are a good defense. So let's see how they do.

I'm very, very excited in anticipation of this game. Not betting a side, not betting a total. I'm just excited to watch it. 70 points broke the ball connor yeah i think it's pretty crazy because you think back to week one and then the chargers ran the ball like what 50 times 40 times and still scored like 31 on them so it's like it would have to be like that and then the dolphins the offense would have to be like slow down i don't know if shutdown is even possible so slow down for an under to happen like that's what would have to be like slow down i don't know if shut down is even possible so slow down for an under to happen like that's what would have to be the thing it would be like the bills running the

ball like 40 times and then slowing the game down and the dolphins are just like struggling offensively but but i just we've seen we've seen the dolphins when they struggle they struggle like steelers game last year charges game last year 49ers game last year. It's sort of like an all or nothing. You can tell early in the game, man, what is this defense going to do? You tell that five minutes into the Broncos game, you're like, yeah, the Broncos don't stand a chance. But in the games where Tua, his timing is disrupted and he's not finding those 15, 20 yard routes downfield early on, the Dolphins haven't had a game where they've figured it

out halfway through and then started putting points on the board. So, you know, there's always a chance that the bills come up with a defensive game plan that works. Again, I'm not betting on it, but it's a possibility. And that's why I'm excited for this game, because I think that when you compare this team to last year, like they've adjusted some of their scheming already one, like in the past game, and then two, they actually have a running game that seems like somewhat functional. So like, those are the two things that I think can actually change that because you're right like with their shutdown like the chargers game you pretty much knew right away like this is just ain't happening

last year and then week one you're like oh this is they're gonna cook them you know like there was no none of what we saw last year happening so i that's definitely an excitement on that piece bills are running it well too and that was what was interesting to me when i was looking at this because they're like one and two in points per drive. But Miami is, because of the splash plays, Miami is like 25th in plays per drive, right? Because they don't, they're just getting it done quicker. Like Buffalo's second in plays per drive.

They're like over seven plays per drive. They're grinding stuff out. They're taking what the defense is giving them. They are running the ball a little bit more. Like Clark mentioned, they in 12 more i think the mix of you know james cook has been really good between the 20s getting it done we saw more josh allen runs last week too and those things are probably the only thing that would slow the game down because i agree with clark it's not going to be like wow miami's defense showed up in a way that we have not seen them do before and they really just just slow Josh Allen down.

Like I just, I don't see how Steph digs doesn't absolutely eat in this spot. I think he's going to be just absolutely dominant. So yeah, I mean, it's going to be a great game. I don't have a feel for it. I kind of lean over maybe a team total over would be the way to Connor's

point. The dolphins are the lowest, lowest barrier to entry at this point, because they are the shorter side, and they are on the right side of the key number if you want to go over. So that is something that's interesting to me. But, yeah, going to be great football, the best game of the season so far, and excited to watch it.

So what else do we like? We have anything else on the board that we have interest to you guys this week that's coming up that we didn't talk about? Clark, I'll start with you. There's been a bit of a wrestling match on the Jaguars-Falcons game in London that's been kind of fun to watch. I like the Jaguars in this one. I think there's a lot of concern about kind of like who the Jaguars are.

They looked really bad against Houston. They lost by 20 at home to Houston. And they didn't look good against Chiefs either. That game could have been more of a blowout. But just watching them play on offense, like I'm not seeing anything that is sort of concerning long-term. I'm seeing a lot of really important dropped passes.

I'm seeing, you know, receivers catching balls with a foot on the white, you know, out of bounds. I'm seeing Trevor Lawrence playing at an elite level, but it's just not turning and translating into success on offense. And I think that the rest of the team's not, you know, not really that great. And so they need Trevor Lawrence to play that way.

But I think the other things will kind of catch up. Calvin Ridley will get more comfortable. You know, the Falcons looked really, really bad against the lions. And I think this is kind of a spot where the Jaguars are healthy for the most part. Um, you know, they got Ken Robinson suspended that that'll be big when they get him back, but they're, they're not a bad team. They're just a team that's been underperforming. And I think there's a difference between a team that's underperforming in a way that I think is predictive and a team that's just, you know, NFL variants. And I'm, I'm, I'm kind of on the NFL variance

side of the Jaguars. So I like them. I like them in London. I like the Jack side too. Connor, anything that's on the board for you here for week four. Yeah. After we talked about a couple of unders, you know, I think throughout the show, there was a couple of overs that I thought were interesting.

I think Clark played the Broncos bears over. I like that one. It's like a super stinky, bad team over, but just literally, I think that we're going to see fields in the bears offense actually look pretty good to be honest. I mean, relative to what we're, we've seen so far, um, just by Justin Fields being purely more athletic and talented and just like,

I mean, this is it. Like if it's, it's now or never, like, I mean, it's, it's already never, in my opinion, like I think pretty firmly coming into the year, we were of the stance that if Justin Fields is not at through a couple of games, like his, you know, career in Chicago is pretty much over. And I think that's about where we're at, but you know, we might get a little bit of fun game here against the Broncos defense. That's been like, so, so bad to start the year. And then the other one Raiders chargers. I think that if dreamy Garoppolo plays and over there is pretty interesting because the chargers defense has been terrible to start and the Raiders defense has been awful as predicted and the Chargers has been like throwing the ball a ton without Eckler so I don't think that they're

even like gonna go back to the run of the approach I think we're gonna see a ton of throws again um at least until Eckler comes back and then on the other side I think the Raiders will have success like some success no matter what they're doing so So that would be an over that I like as well. How about anything in the futures market? I wanted to ask you guys, and we had a question here in the chat. I mean, Clark, the NFC South is interesting to me because just based off of some leans that I think I agree with you this week, where I do like the Jaguars in London in that game.

I also do think that the Saints can take care of business against Tampa. Currently on FanDuel, the Saints are plus 135 to win this division. That obviously gets shorter if both Atlanta loses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay loses there to the Saints as well. That specifically catch your eye, or is there anything in the future market that you're just kind of watching? Because I know you mentioned at the top, like this is a big win total week. Is there anything that's currently on the board that you're maybe monitoring to want to get into? You know, I was monitoring the Jaguars division futures because I know that, you know, they started out disappointing, but their schedule down the stretch is really, really tough. And I haven't

seen enough from them to think that they're good enough to overcome a difficult schedule. And I've seen a lot from the Colts to be excited about that. I think, you know, I have a cold season win under ticket. So, you know, it sucks that I'm saying the Colts can challenge the Jaguars for the division, but it's just a matter of schedule. Right. And like, even though the reason why I wanted to play it was because I was like, well, the Jags already won in Indianapolis. Like that's a huge game. But I'm just looking at the rest of the schedule and it's just not favorable for the Jags.

So yeah, I mean, I don't play a lot of in-season futures. I played the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl when it was 7-1. I don't know if you can still get 7-1, maybe 6-1. But that's just a ticket that like every other competitor in the AFC, other than the Bills, in my opinion, looks worse than they did coming in. And the Chiefs look just fine. The things that knock people off of Super Bowl paths is injuries. And the Chiefs are healthy.

So I think, you know, the Bengals are sort of out of the picture. You know, I don't really think the Ravens are great. Like I said, the Jaguars haven't looked great. This is a much narrower picture in the AFC. I think that, you know, granted, the Dolphins can challenge them, but you're going to want some exposure to the Chiefs in the playoffs because they're the best team in the NFL. They have Patrick Mahomes.

They win when it matters, and that's a ticket that I wanted to have in my pocket. Still 650s out there currently on the Chiefs. Miami 10-1 on FanDuel. Along with the Bills are second, depending on the books, those are basically anywhere between 8-10. Some books have Miami ahead. Some books have the Bills ahead, which, again, the Bills, are second, depending on the books. Those are basically anywhere between eight to ten. Some books have Miami ahead. Some books have the Bills ahead, which, again, to your point,

this week goes a long way in kind of determining how that's going to play itself out. So, yeah, definitely going to be an interesting week. Last week was not a good week for the People's Parlay. It was so not good. I didn't even really feel good about it going into it. I did not play it for subscribers and it failed pretty massively, basically almost across the board.

I mean, you weren't building a Moneyline parlay that didn't have Dallas in it. Dallas lost in a disastrous fashion. Clark wanted to talk me out of the Ravens' leg because of the Colts. That happened. But he wanted to put the Jaguars in, and instead they lost to the Texans. So it was a bad thing overall, not a good week for the people's parlay. If you were to do it this week, because there's a couple of ones on the board.

Now Clark is not going to buy into the Eagles' leg because he's in the Commanders'. We've already seen that. I know that he is going to poo-poo the commander's leg. We have another game involving the Cardinals. I'm sorry, the Cardinals. You know, looking decent early this season. They go to San Francisco.

They're 14-point dogs. The Niners probably take care of business there. The Chiefs play the Jets. I feel pretty good about that considering considering zach wilson at home in prime time like if they go three and out in the first drive like the boo birds are coming out in a big way um you know fireman ed is going to be you know blurred out double bird like on on screen it's going to get ugly real quick in new york i think possibly um so i think those three money line legs are pretty interesting i love the bangles at two and a half.

We are not putting a money line here, but I think the bangles take care of business against the Titans. I could throw them into a parlay here with those three money lines, plus two and a quarter. That is the people's parlay of the week. We will not be pushing that out as an official play. But again, because it is very fishy,

but you know, if you want to throw three money lines in with a side that you like, which is what I am somehow telling you to do on the show with all you people watching, for some reason I'm doing that, but this is what we're doing. Yeah, those are the legs that I like to speak. Mostly just want to make a play that I like the Bengals. Bengals under three I think is a pretty nice look. So that's all I got.

Conor, anything for the people before we wrap up? No, I respect it. One futures look that I think is got. Conor, anything for the people before we wrap up? No, I respect it. One futures look that I think is interesting. Anthony Richardson, rookie of the year back now, six to one on fan duel. Imagine not having that in the bag already.

Yeah. I mean, look at, look at you. I know Anthony Richardson, day one guy over there. I'm a bandwagoner after I almost wore a clown suit in week one or week two. So thankfully avoided that.

You also avoided your assless chaps last week because you bet the people's parlay in week two and not week three. Otherwise, you'd be sitting here. Assless chaps was a Jets-Cowboys specific bet. Should have made it about the Cardinals. Yeah. Which is fair. Next time.

No one wants to see my ass. It's so white. So no one wants to see my, it's so white. So no one wants to see that. So waited in the Clark's shirt. So good stuff as always again, four, four.com slash plans. Get you the betting sub.

You can get all of our official picks access to everything on the site. Subscribe to the show. Thumbs up, rate, review all those things. Again, we appreciate it greatly. Come back on Friday,

3 p.m. Eastern Connor, myself, high slot for props. Again, we appreciate it greatly. Come back on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern. Connor, myself, high slot for props. Again, we appreciate it. Win some bets here in week four, everyone. So for Connor and Clark, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody. you