Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 5 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 5! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 5 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow Adam on Twitter 👉🏼    / AdamChernoff Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move a line presented by draft king sportsbook ryan new here to talk week five our favorite bets talk around the league joined here as always by conor allen what's going on buddy yeah not a whole lot finally out of wedding season so uh excited to focus on more football we were shooting out some prop plays last weekend from the cocktail hour uh you know thankfully shout out to the team there shout last weekend from the cocktail hour uh you know thankfully shout out to the team there shout out monotone shout out uh you know jake for helping me out there getting out the jayden read overs those obviously came through pretty big so uh thankfully out of that excited just talk some football and you know make some more bets yeah

i knew you're at a wedding and you start to i see you active in the chats and i'm like i'm just thinking about your poor wife uh just because i think it was her friend's wedding too i'm like just, just, she knows what she's getting into, but it just, you know, it's, it's that time of year. So excited to talk week five, our guest today. I mean, if we were to have friends of the show, this is, you know, our Mount Rushmore friend of the show back when we first started, even seven years ago, this gentleman joined us multiple times. And I think every time we've had guests for years, we didn't, but we've had guests. This has always been at the top of the board for us.

It's the host of the Simple Handicap Podcast. He's part of the team over at Right Angle Sports. He's coming off of a red hot week four over there as well. I want to talk about his golf game as well. It's Adam Chernoff. What's going on, buddy? How are you guys? Good to be back on the show. It's been a little bit, but I'm glad to see everything continuing to grow. Lots of prop success for you guys as well. So good to be back chatting with you guys? Good to be back on the show. It's been a little bit, but I'm glad to see everything continuing to grow. Lots of prop success for you guys as well. So good to be back chatting with you guys. Yeah. How's the swing? I mean, you're up in Canada. Your season's even shorter than mine here in Chicagoland. I know you've been working on some stuff. You've been playing a little bit or how are we doing? So I'm in the Pacific Northwest now. So it's actually year round golf.

But the biggest hurdle from november to march is just daylight and football going on so as long as it's light out a guy can get out so it's been good um first year i've really gone into like full-time working with a pro so there have been some pretty significant gains to everywhere in the game and now it's just a matter of trying to dial things in a little bit so it's been as good of a golf year for me as ever on the course absolutely love to hear that this is great god's game uh so you know play that forever it's a full divide between thinking about football and then thinking about playing golf that just is a conflicting back and forth all day long every single day all year so it's it's a battle mentally i'll tell you what after a week that i had last week one thing i wanted to do was get on the course i can get my mind off of what

happened to me i i did not have the week that you had at reigning sports last week that connor had last week either i need to get on the course and get my mind right and lose myself a little bit in the swing and feel good after uh taking an absolute drubbing in week four the hard part is that i find is when you're like there's no good time to golf during the NFL week. And the guilt, if you get out for nine and you're out there for, let's say like an hour 40, if you've got good pace,

like you can kind of get away with that, but to commit to turning the phone off and putting it in the bag and being out there for like four and a half hours, it just riddles, riddles me with guilt. I don't know how you guys feel. It's hard. I wish, I wish there was another answer to that. The moment that I stepped into the church on Saturday, the Jordan Love and Justin Herbert news broke that they were both playing. Like I had like multiple plays queued up, ready to go.

And like, I was in a church. So I'm like, I I'm checking my watch. Like I seeing a buzz in my Apple watch. I was like, you gotta be kidding kidding me like the moment that i step into a place where i can't just have my phone out blasting things out like we kind of knew they were playing but it wasn't 100 i was like oh you gotta be kidding me do you do the fantasy life alerts on the on the apple watch yep yeah yeah no it's like it's you're tethered to it you don't get anything the minute you leave one comes through and you're're like, it's every single time all year. Without fail. Literally without fail.

Yeah. That's it. I mean, you golf, you're sitting in a car. Like I use my phone for GPS too, you know, for like, you know, kind of keeping my score, all those different things. So like kind of still on the phone a little bit. It's more of the time more than anything. Just all the other responsibilities.

It's like, you know, definitely aday, seven-day work week almost. So I don't do much on Saturdays except once my wife falls asleep. It's really hard to be like, hey, honey, I need to take time off on Saturday to go golf with the boys for five hours. I have children. I like them. I like spending time with them. That's another piece of it too. So try to get as much in as possible.

I agree. And the guilt that you get when you do that, missing football but also missing the family just kills you as well i wish there was a good answer to this yeah well try to jam as much golf in around it but uh we're here to talk week five uh again want to remind folks if you're hanging out with us now on youtube we appreciate it be a pal subscribe uh give us thumbs up whatever you do if you're watching uh on youtube the four for four bets youtube channel move the line in podcast form wherever you listen all those things go a long way in helping us as well um this is the game preview show we're going to talk about

some of our best bets and favorite games of the week prop drop is on friday so if you like props you want some of the stuff that we're doing there that is fridays at 3 p.m eastern myself connor john hyslop so come back for that show as well all the official plays that we push doing there. That is Fridays at 3 p.m. Eastern. Myself, Connor, John Hyslop. So come back for that show as well. All the official plays that we push out on that prop show specifically, you need the betting subscription. Those all go into our Discord for subscribers first. So they do have action and they move quickly.

So having the subscription helps you get the best of the number, helps you get the best price. All those things matter a ton. Finding any edge is possible. So great ways to do it right now. You can head over to 444.com slash plans to scoop up the betting subscription

to get you access to everything we do. So if you want to do every article, tool, rankings, projections, you're grinding DFS, all that stuff is all there. Discord chats and channels for everything. Pick'em sites, all that stuff. Right now we have a partner with Rebets.

You download the app, Rebet app. It is a DFS Pick'em sweep, Sweepstake, slash Sportsbook. It's got a little bit of everything. They have a derivative of Prop Builder as well. So if you need another out, Rebet has it for you. Use promo code 444BET. So no S, 444BET. $10 on Rebet, and you'll get a free four for four betting subscription for the rest

of the season. That's it. No loophole right now. It's almost $200. If you just go to the website and buy it $10 with rebet, great deal. Check it out. Reach out to us. If you have more information, we're happy to help you out with that. All right, gentlemen, let's get to some of the stuff that's going on in league. We'll get to some of our games. Um, what surprised you the most in the past week, Adam? I i mean a lot of stuff going on you know team related i think kind of the buzzy teams in particular and i don't want to take them away from you i mean i think the vikings and commanders have kind of probably changed the most in uh you know market sentiment since we first kicked off uh just been a lot

going on could be team related player related uh what surprised you the most in week four? Week four surprise specifically, probably I would say how dominant the Vikings looked early in the game against the Packers. That was kind of a culmination of Packers missed field goals, turnovers, mistakes, but just how well Minnesota comes into games from a prep standpoint is incredible to see. And I had optimism for the team coming into the year. I liked it. I never imagined that it would be this good. And now we're seeing DVOA after four weeks is like record high on trajectory, similar

to Baltimore last year. It's very impressive what they've got going on. I mean, we liked him too, Connor. I didn't think we thought this was in the range of outcomes, especially in the early part of the schedule. We're like, these are the tougher games, right?

The, the Niners, the Texans on the road and division against the Packers. Really impressive start, you know, expand on the Vikings or anything that surprised you in week four. Yeah. I don't have too much to add there.

I think that's definitely been the most surprising. I think there was a lot of questions about Donald coming in. Like, could he execute everything? He's done more than execute. He's facilitated. He's beneficial. I think that's definitely been the most surprising. I think there was a lot of questions about Donald coming in. Like, could he execute everything? He's done more than execute. He's facilitated. He's been efficient. They haven't even been pushed yet.

I'm really excited to watch a game where they're pushed and see like, Hey, what does that look like? Sam Donald, the Vikings playing from behind. Can he not turn the ball over? Can he not turn into, you know,

a cupcake? Like I, I think that's what I'm excited to see. And I think the only question that I have remaining right now, it's like Brian floor is put on the defensive masterclass after four weeks, just been changing things up, dialing up pressure. Like they're far outperforming the talent they have on the field consistently for the last two years. And this year is just even more accentuated by who they've played. So I thought that was awesome. And then my most surprising thing here for week four would be,

I would say the bill is laying an egg, like offensively, I really thought that they would have a lot more success passing the ball. I mean, they couple of close like non-conversions um you know obviously keon coleman dropped the ball like you know early in the first half they didn't really open things up till the third quarter i mean josh allen had just 40 passing yards in the first half uh third quarter looked a little bit better but still it just it didn't come all together and he he didn't complete a single pass in the fourth quarter because he was benched um after the first drive so it's one of those things that things got away from them their defense didn't complete a single pass in the fourth quarter because he was benched after the first drive. So it's one of those things that things got away from them. Their defense didn't play well.

And it was, I mean, just over way quicker than I thought it would be. And I was someone on the Bills last week, unfortunately. But it was just interesting to me. I thought that they would have some more answers to what the Ravens were doing, and they did not. Yeah, same. I was holding the Bills back there a little bit as well and definitely needed that. And this is kind of will lead into one of the games we're going to talk about here, same. I was holding the Ravens back or the Bills back there a little bit as well and definitely needed that. And this is kind of will lead into one of the games we're going to talk about here too.

One of the things that surprised me, I think if you just didn't watch the game at all, I think the Jets, Broncos, the marriage between box score and results, it's probably one of the strangest that I can remember in the history of time. Like I, it was just such a bizarre outcome right i mean you just say any scenario we're like all right this team is going to be completely

limited offensively you're gonna have one receiver who basically accounts for all the yards it's going to be 60 uh 60 yards passing um and the team is going to win is just a really bizarre scenario uh and a tough one for the jets and you know again i know, again, I guess we'll get into Jets Vikings. That's one of the games here at the top. And just also kind of want to talk about the Broncos later too. I'm so concerned. Some of our concerns are how we thought this team was going to be. It's kind of flip-flops in a way, which is just absolutely strange as well.

So I don't know what to make of the Jets. I'll kind of flip that over to Adam. I mean, what are your thoughts on what's going on there? There's obviously a lot of talk with Devontae Adams. Is that the answer? Are they the team to land him? What are your kind of takeaways on how the Jets are going? I know you're a fan, but I know you do a great job at separating fandom from handicapping.

Do you want to go team specific or kind of in this matchup specific towards? Go team specific Jets. Then we'll get to the game. So we're seeing what happens when an offense is entirely dependent on the performance of a quarterback and specifically his ability to make plays to throw guys open. There's nothing that is coming easy for the Jets offense. And what we're seeing is just a complete reliance on Rogers managing things at the line of scrimmage and then trying to make things work as well as what we're seeing is how easy it is to bracket or take Wilson out of the

game I think coming into the year there is an expectation that Wilson would take over games and be the standout wide receiver but when you don't have strong number two and number three pieces when an offense operates this slowly and is this limited otherwise it's really easy to kind of focus on one guy with double teams and brackets and take them out of the game and then you're left with an offense that quite frankly doesn't have a lot of explosive playability and so when you have that reliance on Rodgers but then the offensive line isn't getting good push in the run game they're just operating so slowly and so tightly that now defenses like Denver really good at timing the snap because the play clock is getting down so low every every single time there's not a lot of room for error and whether it was the weather a really good broncos defense the blitz a combination

of all of it we saw what it looks like when rogers isn't on against the broncos and we saw what it's like when he is on against the pats and there's really no in between because it just is so reliant on rogers in this offense you know what's interesting there connor is not much different last year right i mean zach wil Wilson was able to feed and make Gary Wilson the guy um Bruce Hall was able to find holes and it'd be explosive right the secondary pieces are better the offensive line is better theoretically right it's just this I feel like it's almost like now that Rogers is here the Nathaniel Hackett is just like go for it like he's maybe has even less involvement in what's going on.

And Aaron's or, you know, Adam's point that Rogers takes the clock down so predictably down to the last three seconds all the time, it's easier for teams to kind of feast on them. Yeah. I think Adam brought it up too with this Denver defense. I thought, I thought this is leading to this result here. Like, I mean, they allowed 29 points in their last three games combined their third and EPA

fourth and success rate fifth and success rate, but it's to run ninth or surpass, like they're playing really, really well. Uh, and so I think that partially has something to do with it. Uh, and then on the other hand, like, yeah, there's nothing, no easy buttons. There's, you know, Nathaniel Ackett is one of the worst OCs in the league. That's not a surprise. Uh, and then things just aren't clicking for rogers slash wilson slash gary wilson at this point because i mean again they're bracketing him they're making things tough on like getting the ball to him which is a major problem when your other receivers are a mike guy like mike williams is coming back from an injury uh and then alan lazard is like your

other chain moving option so and then they don't have any explosive options i mean they don't have don't have a guy who like can stretch the field at all really um so i think so I think there's a lot of issues there. And then if they're not running the ball well in first and down second down, which they're not, they're behind the stick. So they're just like always in trouble. And so that's kind of the biggest issues. I think that in easier matchups, um, things will sort themselves out a little bit more and they'll figure it out. Um, so I think there are better days to come. Uh, we'll talk about it here in a second. Not sure that's this week. That was about the same, the same right this is the fast this is supposed to be the softer part of the schedule as well though because it does fatten up a little bit later too right so they're supposed

to be picking off some of these games i mean it's definitely a spot they had earmarked for a win if you're kind of handicapping the early season futures or anything like that on the jet side it's a little bit of a tougher one to take last week so uh where does adams go connor he's i mean clearly seems like he is playing his last game with the raiders it feels like i think jets or saints um pretty ricky came back for a total of 15 minutes i don't know if you just saw that on twitter um yeah pretty ricky undeleted his account said i'm back tweeted out the jets or saints and then re-deleted his Also, another guy who has connections with Adam said that it was like, he gave two extra teams on top of the Jets and Saints, but one of them I'm not really buying. And so I think probably one of those teams. Didn't see that message. I think I know who that is, but that's

a good source for sure. Adam, any thoughts on where Devante and lance the jets they have to make it work everyone's job is on the line it's the hot seat i mean the jets own second and third rounds next year second round two years from now it sounds like the going price is the third based on what was being kicked around on twitter last night this morning they got to make a move for him you put adams in that offense, that's a significant upgrade to what they're going to be able to free up. We're talking about Wilson being bracketed and stuck. You got to make the play for it. I don't know what else. The team hasn't made the playoffs since 2010, January 2011, the last time they played a playoff

game. If you're not doing it now then what and it's a team that is in such a dire position that you can afford to to hemorrhage a bit of the future here you already did it with the qb get reddick out you've got the cap space to do it about three million over if they're able to move him or he doesn't come back and that frees things up gotta do it feels like that's gotta be the move like just, if you need to pay a second, just feel, figure it out. Like you just need to kind of need,

you're all in on this. You're all in the, you know, the front office has got to be all in tied yourself to Rogers. Like, why would you not take it? I can't imagine if they don't make the move, being content,

basically going out like this. Like if you're, if the jets don't make the playoffs this year, it's everyone's cleaned out i mean there's no way to come back from this especially if it gets ugly you're already tied into it just make the move honestly it's surprising that hasn't happened yet yeah i would agree i mean i chiefs commanders also would make sense theoretically but uh you feel like the jets should be willing to spend the most uh commanders are are interesting. Jake's got a question in the chat here for Adam.

Thoughts on Jane Daniels' start? Obviously, and he kind of notes it here. Again, Connor decided to put his neck out there, unfortunately, the other day. Again, just a measured take. And again, this is a fan base, not quite as desperate maybe as the Jets, but like, man, the Commanders and the Redskins and the football team has been down bad for a very long time.

They are desperate for anything. I get it. But you have to have a little bit of context, I think, in what we do to kind of look at who they've played and who they've beat up on. And good for them. You want to beat up on the softies, Adam, but there's no way around it.

They've beat up on the softies, right? They haven't had really much of anything in terms of difficult schedule, in terms of teams testing them especially defensively was that was that the schedule-based tweet you sent out connor yeah i said it was something like And I got blasted. Like I had to, I muted the tweet because I was like, I just don't want to ruin my day. Are you in conversation? Yeah. I've checked that a few times myself this year. I'm here.

Yeah. What do you think? I mean, was that a crazy take or no? I mean, he has played really well. I'm not going to lie. He's played well.

No, it's not a crazy take where I always look at it. You cannot control who you play in the NFL. You can control how you play against them. And there's two sides to this I think are fair. The one that you mentioned is they played a very soft schedule of opposing defenses. And the Bengals will probably be the team that stands out as like, well, how can you say the Bengals defense is soft? The market's telling you all you need to know about the Bengals defense right now in a game that's been bet up four points into the 50s this week.

A number that we don't see totals in the 50 that often anymore. And there was zero hesitation for that game being bet up. They have two big defensive line injuries, haven't been able to stop anybody on the ground. That's a very bad Bengals defense. And then in terms of the Cardinals and the Giants, whether you look at roster ratings per year, whether you look at what's happened so far through four weeks, those are two very bad secondaries. And so on one hand, it's a very soft schedule. On the other, when you punt two times in three games or one time in three games, whatever

it is at this point, like that's the damn good performance and you're overperforming expectation. I think both are fair I'm curious with the variance that comes with a rookie quarterback when this settles but a couple things that I would say if you're a commanders fan is one Cliff Kingsbury his entire career has been superior to competition in September every month after his offenses and success rate and yards per play have gone down. So to see a Kingsbury offense get really hot in September is nothing new. I think the big question is, did he learn enough going back to college to where this is going to be different? I think we saw a lot of two tight end sets against Arizona. He showed some willingness

to adapt. He hasn't in the years past. Maybe that's a positive. The other thing that I would say that is maybe a little bit concerning, Daniels and the commander's offense have been awesome on third down. And that's typically not something that is predictive of future success because it's a high leverage down and they've got away with a lot on third down. and so not only is the not punting going to come back down to earth what do you get when you come back down to earth on third down as well the commanders have one turnover on offense in four games that's something that's very rare and unique as well and i think aaron shatz today said it pretty well when he's like when you look at the

epa per play versus dvoA per so far through four weeks and the difference between the two, the commanders are really outperforming their DVOA level and EPA per play because when Daniels threw the interception, it was returned for zero gain. They've recovered every fumble they've had on first down. They've generated a lot of explosive plays and DVOA credits those a little bit differently and so everything has been going right it's been awesome I just wonder if the team is closer to what we saw in week one where they couldn't complete a pass to a wide receiver

or are they just so much variance driven with this rookie QB that they're closer to what we've seen the last three weeks. I think there's a lot of questions around it. I have a really hard time figuring out where the floor, the ceiling is. Yeah. If you're a fan, put on your hog nose,

lean into it, you know, all that. Fans haven't had a reason to be happy. It's like the jets. When's the last time they've been happy about anything? I resonate with it. I don't know.

Yeah. I mean, raise the, uh, RG three, Alfred Morris years briefly, right. Like a couple of good early Kirk cousin years. I mean, it's just, it's with it. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, right. The RG three, Alfred Morris years briefly, right. Like a couple of good early Kirk cousin years.

I mean, it's just, it's really it, right. It's been, and even that wasn't that great. I guess by now. Yeah.

It's been dark. So good for them. You're a fan. And you know, Jake is, you know, lean into that a little bit there to, you know,

take it in and, and enjoy it. It's been, it's been quite the ride. It's a little hard. I know from Jake in and, and enjoy it. It's been, it's been quite the ride. I know from Jake, like, how do you, he's got an Oilers picture in the avatar. How does he go from Oilers fans to commanders fan? That is, that's, that's as far as it gets geographic.

That's a big one. Yeah. Jake is a fantastic intern, Jake, for us, expanding his role. He's been great for us. I know he's a, we know he's a Commander's fanboy. He did ask me another question here, Adam. You don't have to comment on this, but I noticed the other day on Twitter that your plays are not being tracked by GRP. Any comments, thoughts about this with the notebook? Honestly, I haven't looked at a thing that he has said in two plus years. It's been going on for a long time. I, I know nothing about the guy.

Uh, I don't know. It's not that I don't have a comment. I just, I have no idea who the guy is. And so it's not necessarily something. Well, I found it funny because it's the way it was presented was, it seemed like you guys were teaming up or something like that. And I was like, well, that seems like an odd arrangement. Um, so what was the,

what was the criticism or like what is being put out there now? No criticism. It was just that he's recording your plays in his notebook. I think that was, that was as far as your own sheet, the notebook. It sounds like I didn't see this either. That sounds,

we have, we have everything publicly tracked on the site as well. Yeah. But if it's not in the notebook, Adam, it doesn't count. I, I'm not too sure there but that's i don't know no yeah he's tracking last week what was uh you guys like five and oh or four oh something like that you guys were perfect last week so pretty good notebook start for you guys uh i guess so yeah good good for you

there's a character uh connor one, we'll get into the games Who picks first in the draft? Starts today, first pick 2025 NFL draft We are on the clock I'm going to go with the Patriots I mean, they just keep losing guys Any talent they have is just going downhill Lost their

Starting center, I believe, for Probably the rest of the season And I mean, that was Their – I mean, their running game, the only time they were winning was when they're running the ball successfully and playing some good defense. If anything's failing, if they're put behind the sticks, they have to throw the ball. It's just basically a complete disaster.

So I'm going to go with the Patriots. Long shot, Raiders. I mean, what we talked about preseason, if it falling apart. I mean, they still won against the Browns. I just think that those seem like an overperformance in my mind. But I don't know. Devonta gets traded. Crosby a little bit banged up.

I think the floor here is still really low for this Raiders team. Lost that 85-yard. Amari Cooper touched down in the fourth quarter. He got called back for holding. That was terrible. Tough one. What do you think, Adam? I think the Patriotsots comment is right like they've lost now multiple captains on defense i'm not sure what

the status at duggar is that seems like an ongoing scenario and you mentioned losing andrews on the o-line um there it's it's one of the rare times you get the injury tweet and then you get like the subsequent how important this guy is to everything tweet and he's he's one of those players and and what i found curious was they didn't go out of their way they even went out of their way in the press conference to say we're not pursuing replacements i'm not too sure what to make of that but so i think the pats are right that's an interesting comment on the raiders I honestly last week maybe gives me hesitation because I thought last week was the beginning of the slide for Pierce like interim head coaches

promoted the next year typically really struggle and once you see both guys um Crosby and Adams with injuries late and the concerns and the business decision I'm like okay here it goes the fact they won against the Browns maybe gives a little bit of optimism there that they're not completely done and we're not seeing the room lost but i could i still could see the raiders situation going south in a hurry so yeah i think i thought that game had more to do with the browns dysfunction than the raiders that's part of it too right and so then you put Cleveland in this conversation ever, or is the roster too good to sustain it? It's probably too good, but it's the quarterback situation.

So bleak, right? I mean, it's, it's, it's rough. I mean, what would they have been last year without Flacco?

I was thinking about this in context with the Colts. Cause like QB play last year was like guy was 47th with DTR. You had another guy that was like 48th and then you have Watson they could have been really bad if Flacco didn't save them yeah and they get the doors blown off in the playoff game too I mean sometimes you can because the way that Garrett and Z'Darrius Smith kind of the way that they use their edges more so than a lot of other teams they are really just kind of pin their ears back get to the quarterback guys and teams can run on the edge at times against cleveland you do see

them give up for a team that can like sometimes have some pretty good defensive metrics against the run they give up a pretty high rate of explosives at times i think the raiders were able to take advantage of that surprisingly a little bit last week after having like almost historical ineptitude on the ground through the first month of the season it bit last week after having like almost historical ineptitude on the ground through the first month of the season it was last week they showed a little bit of a pulse gets harder again this week and the broncos run defense has been awesome uh so yeah i'm interested to see what happens there maybe o'connor's long shot in the season i think has a little bit more life especially if there are longer sustained misses missing time wise we didn't have max

crosby play today again it feels like the davante adams thing is inevitable uh what's that look like in the locker room all those different things so pats have to be the favorite though i would think the schedule is still pretty tough moving forward uh it's got to be the favorite fan duel has odds uh just real quick patriots panthers jags giants titans then browns are plus 950. I mean, the market is an insane amount of hold in it. I mean, it's like one of those, like, you know. What are the Raiders? 21 to 1. I think that's worth a little bit.

Give me a little there. Not at all. That's a good call. Because realistically, probably, what was last year? Two wins got the first pick? Or was it three? No, it was two. So there's about eight or

nine teams with one or zero so far raiders finishing with four isn't like crazy is it i don't think so i think this year could be a little different too i mean the pats have already won a game so like they could end up with like three or four you know like i think three or four probably i think four probably does it this year to be honest so yeah or at least puts them in the mix you think about that we end up thinking that the ravens are legit title contender and the one ravens or the one raiders win was on the road in baltimore uh it's kind of crazy looking back on what that might be nfl like yeah december so all right let's jump into some of the uh here on the week five slate. We will start with the game in London. First of the London games, get your body ready.

Get up, get that coffee going early, especially the West coasters like Adam here. You got your Jets neutral game against the Vikings here. Interesting line movement is actually referenced in the chat here too by Chris. Curious of this again, neutral field line movement. This was Jets one and a half point favorites in the look ahead window it's hard not to continue to have pro vikings sentiment in the market again another strong performance on the road in the division we are now moving significantly here uh you know basically almost what two and a half three points here

uh on the minnesota side i don't worry thoughtsets-Vikings? So to answer Chris's question, if this was being recorded maybe any other week in any other season, I would say yes. And I would say that like the three spots this week would be Jets, Jags, and Browns. And what this week has turned into my lowest volume betting week of the season internally as our group. It's our lowest output

as well. And we've only released one game too. It's turned out to be a really tough week. So I know exactly what Chris is saying here. The problem that I have with this is two things. The first I've noticed, I'm calling, I don't know what the right word to call it is, but I've noticed a lot of doubles in terms of game plans and opposing matchups so far this season so for example the Brian Flores defense for Minnesota faced the 49ers and then they faced the Houston Texans and you have coordinators directly from the same system and then the real system both times and the Vikings defense looked good the first time second time around they looked awesome we saw the Patriots play the Jets and the 49ers Jets and 49ers defense same scheme same system Pats looked bad the first game looked really bad the second game and for the Jets even

though this isn't exactly that same scenario when I think about the Denver Broncos they lead the league in blitz rate through four weeks, blitz more than any other team. That gave the Jets offense a ton of problems. Some of it was the weather for sure, but the Jets just had no answer for the blitz. And the O-line was struggling. The cadence was off. The offense looked really bad. And now they play a Vikings defense with Brian Flores.

Last year, he led the league in blitz rate. He's number two this year. So I'm putting myself in brian flores position with this defense that's at a historic dvla level through four weeks that's playing exceptional football it's like how do you not take away from that game plan last week that the broncos used and apply it this week which i certainly think they can the jets to navigate that are going to have to play a lot of up-tempo, like we saw the Packers do in the second and third quarter in their comeback, when they looked really good to offset it. I don't know if the Jets are capable of doing that, the way that they're

operating and want to operate. And so I'm really stuck here because on one hand, on a neutral game to move this much, it's a lot. But on the other hand like there's a lot of negatives here for the jets in the matchup to give me some concern and so i i don't really know what to do with this game but i haven't bet the side of the total that's my handicap connor i don't have much to add i was kind of that same angle with the way the broncos played and the pressure rate for sure i mean i couldn't find a pressure to sack rate for Aaron Rodgers higher than what he currently has. It's a small four-game sample, but he's north of 25%.

That is not really where he's been historically. He's been in the teens. Seems like a guy that is just not really willing to fight into tight windows. It's kind of never been his thing, right? He loved to, people even dog him in the past where he would just, he'd love to throw the ball in the stands versus take a shot deep down the field you want to keep that really clean touchdown interception ratio going it just seems like a guy that's very content to tuck and protect himself especially last week and against a ton of pressure so 14 pressures last

week i feel like the vikings have a ton of success getting pressure here again um two and a half feels like a big move but i you know just from a matchup standpoint it feels like kind of the right side what are your thoughts yeah and my angle is on the other side of the ball here this jets defense right now is 27th in rushing success rate third and passing success rate their pass evens is still played awesome but the the key here is like we saw in week one right like the niners ran all over the jets but when they did pass the ball we saw brock purdy 65? Like the Niners ran all over the Jets, but when they did pass the ball, we saw Brock Purdy 65% completion rate,

230 pass yards, did have some success, but that was just because the Jets had to overcommit to the run because they're like, we can't just keep hemorrhaging, you know, five, six yards a pop here. And that left their pass defense with some problems. And I think that when we look at this Vikings team here,

how they match up against the Jets, you have Justin Jefferson who can go into the slot. You have Jordan Addison who moves in the slot. Like all these guys have like, don't none of them play out wide more than 65% of the time, which is an issue because the Jets are predominantly stronger out wide with sauce with DJ Reed on the outside. So like, I think that the Vikings could have some offensive success here with like a run heavy plan. And then probably some stuff towards the middle of the field. And that gives me issues issues again with backing the jets for all the reasons offensively that you mentioned and then on the other side like defensively yes i still think their pass defense is awesome but

stylistically and how they match up i just have some concerns there as well to put some numbers in perspective here to chris's point what we're talking about like pre-season my numbers made this game jets minus four and a half on the neutral. There's another model we source that is very well respected. They made it Jets minus four. And then we have the common opponent in the 49ers that both teams have played. And it was about the Jets were rated about four points better in those matchups. And so to get now the Vikings two and a half on the other side like

this is this is a big swing but like you mentioned connor it could be justified yeah pretty significant for sure i mean like yeah they're not blitzing as much as they were last year but they are lapping the field in actual pressures they have 19 more than tampa bay who is in second place with 58 total pressures. The Vikings have 77 pressures. They pressured Jordan Love. Again, PFF has whatever you think of PFF grades. PFF has the Packers as the best pass-blocking offensive line in the league. They pressured Jordan Love 21 times last week.

Now, again, that gets a little bit easier when the game flips and becomes really clear what the Packers need to do to move the football. Still, they got home. They got home from from the second level it's not just their guys up front they're going to be a lot of ways that they can take advantage of this jets offensive line can i one more thing i'm going to add the fact the vikings get a buy and the jets don't is weird to me i don't i don't get that it feels like the vikings have more liberty to push a little bit in this game with the buy on deck than the jets who have to come home and play the bills on monday night it's just that's a weird

the jets haven't been given any favors scheduled timing wise but with the fact one team gets it and one doesn't it doesn't feel right that's interesting i believe and i could be wrong i think the teams have the option right they they like want to give you the buy coming out of a travel overseas game but teams over the years like some teams didn't want it so it sounds like i would believe the jets have chosen to not have that situation right and then to get to come out of it and go to buffalo is a pretty tough spot yeah but it sounds like a jets coaching decision right there as we see that would be most Jets decision ever to do that. Yeah.

Let's get Buffalo after that travel. Yeah, for sure. All right, next. We touched on this one a little bit earlier. Baltimore is on the road, and Cincinnati is another one where we've seen some line movement here. We are basically out across the board at two and a half. It's a little juicy,

so moving towards three in some spots total. Fifty and a half it's a little juicy so uh moving towards three in some spots total 50 and a half is adam touched on as well pretty high i think the injury report's going to matter quite a bit here uh specifically on the cincinnati side uh trey henderson is a big one painful stinger is how it was described today uh we don't know his status i'm not even i don't want he matters i'm not even sure it matters't want to, he matters. I'm not even sure it matters in terms of what he does and how he impacts a football game. Cause he's just, again, he's another one of these kind of rush only edges. He's not a great run stopping guy and not this interior defensive line with BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins for Cincinnati is a problem.

They both sat last week. I believe they both did not practice today. I don't know their status. It is really hard to just kind of compete against a Baltimore team that is really efficient running the football, is very comfortable just saying, hey, we're going to drop back 18 times and make you stop the run. And Cincinnati cannot do that. Connor, what are your thoughts? Yeah, it almost makes me think that we're going to see them do like kind of what

they did a little bit against Washington when they had Brian Robinson in. And that was just like, try everything possible to stop the run, like, and just make Lamar beat him through the air. I just, if they can't stop the run, I mean,

the game's over before it starts in a sense. Like, I mean, in terms of defense on the defensive side of the ball, like they, if they can't stop there, Kenry, like I have a really hard time seeing them stay in this game.

But maybe they don't have the personnel. Like I don't truly don't know how that's possible, like how to stop the run given their personnel at this point. But, you know, I believe that Lou Anarumo can figure that out and force Lamar to beat them. I think that's like, in my mind, the only path that this game does not go crazy in terms of points. I mean, admittedly, I'm having a tough time with this one though, because I do think that Cincinnati should have some success on their own end, passing the ball here against the Ravens team that played really well last weekend has played well the last two weeks,

especially in the first half, first three quarters defensively past defense wise. But I still think that Cincinnati should be able to pass the ball against them a little bit with burrow at full health with Jamar chase, T Higgins working back, Yoshi Voss, Eric Alls working in like when things are clicking, I don't really think that any matchup is too, too much for them specifically offensively. So, um, it's, it's for me, it's kind of just a stay away because I go back and forth. Am I excited to run about an over total on 50 and a half? No, but, uh, I do think that Cincinnati, if they can find a way to force Baltimore's hand to pass the ball a little

bit more Baltimore, we'll just have to pass and probably still have success. It'll just look a little bit different. It's kind of my notes too. I think that this is, if you like Cincinnati, I think it's probably an over game, even though we're at 50 and a half,

we're on the right side of a key number. Again, it feels like Adam said, we don't get a lot of totals up here, but again, if Cincinnati has a pulse offensively, they've actually done a really good job at protecting Burrow so far this year. And we know the Ravens did a better job last week against Josh Allen,

but they are not the dynamic pass rushing unit that they were last year under Mike McDonald. They have stepped back there a little bit. And I do feel like, too, when Baltimore has to be pushed a little bit, it's just a better version of Baltimore than when they just kind of have to maintain a lead and they just kind of play with their food a little bit. That's when other teams come back into it. So, Adam, what are your thoughts here at two and a half?

Waiting. Let's see if three hits. At three, it's probably a tougher decision to pass on Cincinnati. You just think about the spot, the Ravens off of a win that I would classify as a very like one of one win. That was such a perfect matchup for what the Ravens do offensively against the Bills defense that is so weak in the spine right now with injuries like that was just a tailor-made one of one matchup for the Ravens to go against. And like you're saying, the Bengals

aren't much better equipped to handle it than the Ray or then, then we saw last week with the bills. So Hill Rankin's Hendrickson, like you got to have those guys out there. We don't know what the report's going to look like. You get those guys starting to go down. This number is going to get to the full three.

But I, with saying that the Bengals offense, I think maybe is a touch underrated as we progress. Like you mentioned, it's getting better. We're seeing improvement every week. Higgins back matters. Chase is getting close to 100%. You now have multiple tight ends to work with. Brown is emerging as the more explosive back and he's getting some usage. There's a lot of things to like about the Bengals offense. And to me, the Ravens are a little bit beefed up

and inflated off of that Bills win that probably made them look better than they actually are because of the matchup so in waiting this one out it would be it would be hard for me to ever justify betting the Ravens if it were to get to three and I'd be far more intrigued with the Bengals I hate to be waffling back and forth here. It's a really tough week, but I could only be Bengals and the points if it gets to three. And that's kind of what I'm waiting for. Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, on paper, I mean,

I would have been carrying the Bengals water all off season, anti everything Baltimore to miss, to miss the playoffs, anything like that. And now I watch what we kind of saw last week and I'm just like like, oh, man, I'm worried about them stopping the run here. Maybe Connor's right. Maybe they sell out. They just match up on the outside and try to sell out to stop the run and see if Lamar can beat you.

But again, that's when I think points start to come into play. So injury report matters. I think we should all hold off until we get a little bit more clarity there. There's a very – I'll say one thing. It's a very big difference between like good Baltimore and good matchups versus Baltimore in not clicking a hundred percent similar to the jets. Like you get a great offensive game out of Baltimore where they're going downhill and attacking linebackers, nobody's stopping them.

But like we've seen like point out the Raiders game. That was two games ago. And I mean, that's a very different Baltimore team than what we saw against the bills. them but like we've seen like point out the raiders game that was two games ago and i mean that's a very different baltimore team than what we saw against the bills so there's a lot of variance in ravens games offensively yeah that's a good call for sure um all right next we have just touching on buffalo to transit professionals here just transitioning game to game buffalo on the road in houston um some early action here this was buffalo's one one and a half in the market uh one and a half is minus 102 on fandle if you're shopping there 47 and a half is the total pretty much across the

board again some buffalo love in the market here a little bit this was houston minus one um in the lookaheads and when we reopened and now we're sitting a little short on the buffalo side so again not massive movement but through the zero, you know, to another team being favored is the least notable. Again, the spine of the Buffalo defense took another hit. Taylor Rapp, concussion, their strong safety. He's lost. Von Miller lost to a suspension. Von Miller was dust last year.

He has been really, really impactful this year on a limited snap basis. They lose him for four games in the suspension. That one matters quite a bit too. Injuries on the Texan side that I think matter too in terms of how we would handicap this. Larry Mintunsel dealing with, I think, multiple ankle injuries. He left early against the Jags with an ankle injury. Ankles are big enough to have multiple when you're looking at it.

I think just two. He's walking around the field these days. I think just two ankle injuries. I know I said multiple. It's not three. It's just got two. Maybe three. Maybe three.

Tang Dell as well. We need to know if he's active, what's going on in the running back room here. Adam, thoughts on Buffalo and Houston? I've been asked about this game twice today, and I unfortunately don't have a good answer. What I can say is I've seen two groups with orders on either side betting each team plus one. So when you have a game that's lined where it is and you have disagreement at plus one on either side, it kind of tells you all you need to know

in the market. And we're seeing this kind of stuck in that point. I don't have honestly a whole lot to add. I will say if I'm looking at Houston last week, I thought it was impressive. It was Stroud's best game against a man coverage defense that we've seen in his entire career. Typically, he's a quarterback that thrives when facing zone coverage. You're going to get a lot of that from the Bills,

especially with some of the injuries they have now. I would think that this is a pretty good-looking game from Stroud. I question whether or not the Texans can effectively attack that spine. They have now, I would think that this is a pretty good looking game from Stroud. I question whether or not the Texans can effectively attack that spine of the bills defense. They're a team that's most likely trying to get out wide, which is into the strength of the bills defense that we saw the Jags try to do and got nothing.

But this is a much better Texans defense than what we saw. And so every number that I'm looking at makes this within a point either way. There's not a big edge numbers wise. I don't see anything crazy from the matchup perspective. I just don't have a lot to go off here. I think it's a good line. I think it's a good number. This is one, if you're just football fans, we weren't betting on it or handicapping and

just be like, oh, it's just, can't wait to watch this game on Sunday, Connor, but that's not our lot in life. We were here to handicap football games. What are your thoughts? Yeah, but see, I have a lot of the same issues here, especially with this Houston offense. You think, oh, well, Buffalo, you know, 23rd in rushing success rate, just got absolutely pounded on the ground, lost multiple players.

I mean, Joe Mixon isn't playing. Yeah, like, I mean, Mixon still didn't practice today as we're recording on a Wednesday. He hasn't played in multiple weeks. I mean, they're trying to out can makers, even if they get Damian Pierce back, like these guys are irrelevant. They're really bad. And if the offensive line is beat up at all, like they're not going to be able to execute in that way. So it's going to be a lot of pressure on Stroud and this offense to move

the ball that way. And then Buffalo, on the other hand, it's interesting because Houston's run defense last season was really strong in their past events played really well, pretty well too. They haven't played as well this season and their run events particularly has not played as well. And that's, you know, could be interesting here because I think Buffalo, after they went to Baltimore, tried to pass heavy approach, didn't really work. I think, I mean, we saw for whatever, like 10 of the 12 games that Joe Brady's been OC, they wanted to be a run heavy team and be like, all right, we'll run a lot. And then we can,

we can go past having certain situations, which we saw in the Jaguars game, which we saw them try to do in the Baltimore game. And I think still could have gotten different results had things gone better. But, you know, uh, I think that like this, they could go back to their run heavy approach here if they're finding success. So I go back and forth. I love both these teams. Like I've been trying to be like at or above market on basically these teams and virtually every other matchup uh so for me it's a stay away but there definitely will be some props i like the the zone call out there maybe some stefan dig stuff maybe some tank dell stuff curious about his like you know availability there but some digs reception sound sound pretty tasty right now i think dell will play based on how it came out today it sounds sounds like he's much closer than Mixon,

but I agree. If you don't have Mixon out there, I don't know what the path is. It opens up a path for our guy, Monotone, in some props, I think. Something we've seen him want to go down the line. I think we see that

again here, especially after what we just saw Justice Hill do to this past defense as well, or this Bills defense. Going to be a good football game. All right, last one we'll talk about here is the Monday nighter. We have the Saints on the road against the Chiefs. We are looking across the board, 5.5, total 43.5. I mean, just obviously a tough like chiefs are just a bizarre

team they're a bizarre team at this time last year and none of it mattered in the end um kansas or the saints seem to get away from a little bit of what was working early in the season adam a lot of play action early very very little last week uh against the falcons i'm curious to uh your thoughts on what's going on with this team or this game five and a half on chiefs the eagles spooked them i think and you you lose your center and mccoy and that's significant and ruiz at right guard is down it's an old line that had questions coming into the year but i think fangio really kind of shook them up a bit with that six man front he showed uh car is a completely different quarterback when he's facing consistent pressure than when he's kept clean. So I think that that spooked him. I think about what the

Eagles did. I can't help but think the Chiefs are going to do one better with Spaggs coming into this game. Everything for Kansas City is now on the defense. And so to me, the Chiefs defense at home is going to be the unit that dominates this game. I think the Chiefs win in cover, five and a half at home. I look at the Chiefs offense as a unit that's now going to be the unit that dominates this game. I think the Chiefs win in cover five and a half at home. I look at the Chiefs offense as a unit that's now going to transition away perhaps from what we've seen the first couple weeks, go a lot more two tight end sets, mix in some three tight end sets. Hunt, I thought, looked really good. There's maybe some injury concern that limited him in past weeks prior to coming back to Kansas City.

Looking back last year, I think he's a different running back closer to the hunt that we knew from years prior. Again, I thought he was a really nice pickup and a really nice add. So I think he's going to be featured a little bit more than Steele. If the Chiefs go to heavier personnel, it's really going to free up Mahomes in the pocket, who's been surprisingly antsy. He just hasn't looked comfortable. There's been some tackle mistrust so far this year. Even Tooney on the offensive line in the interior hasn't looked himself either. So getting Mahomes a little bit more comfortable, I think multiple tight ends, you get some

backs involved. I think the Chiefs throw a nice little curveball into this game as they evolve into a new offense they're going to be forced into. And I wonder, Saints-wise, if the Chiefs get a break and Demario Davis misses another game, that middle of the field is going to be wide open for Kansas City. So every number that we had preseason in this game was above eight. Other models we sourced had it above eight as well.

This is a pretty different world for pricing that we're getting into at five and a half that I just don't agree with. So I like the Chiefs here. Yeah. In the look-ahead window as well, Connor, what are your thoughts here? Yeah. Chris Jones versus the Saints interiors. I mean, biggest mismatch of the week i think across

all units like literally what adam said like we saw as soon as they lost mccoy against the eagles like it was like not anytime they were in a play action like jaylen carter was like four yards deep into their backfield like you know like literally it was just car was getting eaten alive on a play-to-play basis and i mean I just worry a lot about the same thing. I think they're going to try and stop the run, force the Saints to pass, and it's going to be – it's just not going to be pretty here. And then if we look at the other side of the ball here with the Chiefs on the offense, like Travis Kelsey was not relied upon as that short

intermediate guy in the first three weeks of the season. I don't know if he has a ton of juice, but I think that he can still operate in that capacity without Rishi Rice. And so it's not quite the same extent, but like chain moving, you know, again, like plays, I think that he can, he can execute. And then they just need Xavier Worthy to take a step forward. They have Juju who's played a little bit better. I think he can kind of, you know, work at some intermediate areas, Justin Watson can stretch the field. It's a lot of guys that they relied upon last year that like it wasn't pretty. It wasn't always great.

But again, they found a way to get the job done. They kind of found some rhythm there. They're obviously devoid of talent, mostly at this point, but they're getting the job done. And I think that in this spot here, like as long as Kelsey can do anything in like the short to intermediate area,

I think the rest could come through here with Worthy being, I guess, another super talented player in terms of just explosiveness and stretching the field, which they didn't have last year. Keep going. I need some confirmation bias here. It's a tough week five. Keep going. Honey Badger might be out. Multiple injuries.

Dealing with a heel injury. Came back last week. Left early again. So Honey Badger's been playing well. That could be impactful over the middle of the field too. So there you go do you guys subscribe to the the night game arrowhead drops conspiracy slash historic stat line are you are you into that you gotta fill me in on this i don't know if i even said well you gotta take mvs out of the sample uh and then like what does that look like because well so it goes back prior to mvs. I think it, um, I want to say the sample started in 2015. So there's, or maybe it was dated to like when my home started more drops at Arrowhead during night games than any other stadium, any other conditions, any other time of

day. And it's above, I want to say it's above 12% and then no other stadium at any time is above six. And the rationale is the night plus the lights plus the red background of the stands and the boards that go around the stadium make it difficult to see the football, especially so for teams coming in that don't play in it often. And we see some, you think back to some of the biggest drops in chiefs games, even in week one, lots of drops. So it's, it's becoming a little bit more talked about, but we'll see it in,

in full swing here, Monday night. More confirmation. I had like car under passing yards, kind of circled, you know, as like a special option, you know,

maybe completions now, who knows? We'll see what it ends up being. Yeah. No, I like it's another one it's a big move and i think an overreaction at five and a half so uh you got a good spot there adam for sure um anything else you guys want to talk about any other games that i know adam highlighted that it's been a tough week and you guys haven't made any other plays there any other game you want to talk about talk before you take off? I would say Chicago. So to be clear, we've bet and released one game all week,

and that was the Chiefs. We were very close on Chicago at 3.5 minus 120 was the price that we were looking at. Panthers defense, really bad to begin with, but now just riddled with injuries. You lose middle linebacker one and two. Bears really putting a focus on running the football. I think this is another matchup for a bear's offense that i see as improving week over week to have that outlet of a ground game against a weaker defensive opponent offensively for the

panthers you don't have adam thielen deontay johnson's gonna play but he's banged up you have some injuries on the o-line this was a game that we were looking at a couple weeks ago when the switch was made to Andy Dalton, and we adjusted for everything in the numbers. We had it close to seven. It was like 6.8-something. So we were just shy of seven. The Raiders' win comes.

The Panthers' prices come crashing down. The Bears just closed three against the Rams, and I have the Panthers a big step down from Andy – I have the Panthers a step down from Matthew Stafford and the Rams, even as bad as the Rams' defense has been. And so a half-point difference here from what we saw last week to where we are now against an equally bad defense, it's not quite enough for me.

So a three-and-a-half minus 120, I'd like the Bears. They'd already lost derrick brown uh they are shack thompson been playing his best football uh josie jules out this week you're potentially without your nose tackle shy tuttle you have at least four of the seven starting defensive front seven out yeah Yeah. So that's. Yeah. And Jordan Fuller in the back half. I familiarize myself with linebackers, with rookie linebackers coming into the league. And there was probably no more stunning pick at the time than the Panthers reaching for Trevin Wallace in the third round,

when there are some other really good linebackers on the board. Trevin Wallace is going to be, I think the every down linebacker. You'll probably see some other guys you've never heard of playing uh significant snaps for the panthers and linebacker trevin wallace allowed a 90.3 completion percentage last year at kentucky um when you're dubbed a read and react prospect that just means that you don't understand the position you're just a really good athlete and that's great uh at kentucky that does not bode well in the national football

league and i think the bears are in for uh again another nice spot for them to get some points this week because can i ask you a question and steal some of your tackle prop expertise all time buddy what's what's going on with atlanta with Anderson out? That guy gets a lot of tackles. Who's coming up there? Because certainly the Bucs are going to run a bit with McMillan. And who else are they out? They lost another one. Palmer.

Yeah. One of my lone winners last week, Adam, was over on Troy Anderson. Probably first quarter, no? Halftime line. Yeah. That one felt good. That's what I felt good about the day, and then the day came crashing down soon after.

So they drafted J.D. Bertrand in the draft. He was the first guy up. Oh, yeah, it's not great. He was the first guy up last week because Nate Landman is on IR. What's been interesting, so Nate Landman going out, what they've done with Caden Ellis, and Caden Ellis was one of those guys last week against the saints and they did it again the week prior as well they used almost ellis is like an edge rusher as an extra body along the

offensive line so really if you were looking at the formation it looked like troy anderson was the only linebacker on the field kind of alone in the middle and that's why he had an absolute field day there um so it's going to be bertrand they re-signed uh rashaun evans who was one of their best linebackers in like 2011 20 or i'm sorry 20 2021 2022 not that far back old rashaun evans but uh you know he's dusty he couldn't get on the field for the cowboys last year i don't know if he'll even be active so it's probably going to be kate nellis and jd bertrand which is uh you know a step down from i mean if you ever looked at the relative athletic score of troy anderson he's like the anthony richardson of defense just the guy took him a little while to click and he couldn't stay healthy but troy anderson is

a freak athlete and we kind of finally saw it click the last couple weeks so when a guy like that goes out that gets so many tackles is it an auto play for the guy coming in or do you have to then assume that there's going to be a scheme shift because they're protecting the weaker link that's now on the field i think they're going to protect the weaker link i don't think they do what they did with k nellis and then k nellis has to play more traditional off ball linebacker stuff and they can't put him at edge uh because i don think J.D. Bertrand can handle it by himself in the middle. So I think it is a scheme change for sure. So then would Ellis over be consideration? Is he even priced? Ellis over is probably, yeah. I don't think it's hung. Well, maybe it's hung now because we finally got the Anderson news. So it depends on what the number is. As you know,

we're all market sensitive, but Ellis, far less efficient of a tackler historically, even in his time in new Orleans, then what we've seen out of Troy Anderson in a small sample, Jamie Bertrand is really hard to line. Cause I don't have any, I don't have a lot of baseline stuff for him. So it's hard to like, nobody knows who he is. Yeah. Yeah. It doesn't help either. It's not great. Yeah. We got, uh, we got Ellis eight and a half. Okay. EK and ESPN. Yeah. That seems high, doesn't it?

It's probably a tad high, yeah. Yeah, that's a lot of tackles. I could tell you right now what the Ellis number is. Now, again, I might give it a manual bump. Six. Yeah, I might give it a manual bump because of the perceived role change slightly. Sure, yeah. You get 17 tackles.

They got to go somewhere i guess yeah but not not a lot i mean they could just go do you play more box snaps for um you know jesse bates or something like that which definitely could be something that happens here without a look at look at us wednesday afternoon talking drops i love this we can do a show i have ellis for 7.7.2 for ell Ellis. Even with a manual bump, that's a little high. Let me give you another.

I'll give you a Tampa Bay nugget. I believe Tampa Bay has been kind of a tough spot. Tampa Bay, about two tackles below average to linebackers per game this season and a little bit above. Just their overall tackle rate to linebackers is about 1%les below average to linebackers per game, the season, and a little bit above just their overall tackle rates.

The linebackers about 1% below the average. So not a great linebacker matchup. Extra tackle stuff. It's usually Friday show, but you know, tackles on them. Yeah. I'm sure to jump the gun on that one.

I figured with the game, I'd squeeze it in. No, I love it. Great. I can talk tackles and tackle process and sacks and all that stuff all day long. So actually, it's going to be my lean. The last game, we'll get us out of here.

Let's contrast on the two. I like Denver under three in the spot against the Raiders. Again, we don't know what's going on with Max Crosby. We don't know what's going on with Devontae Adams. But again, the Denver D and Connor touched on some of it. It's been really surprising. They've allowed the fewest red zone trips in the league. They've been amazing on third downs, which again, that can be highly variant.

But leading the league in yards per drive, they only trailed the Chargers in points per drive, run D and pass D in terms of overall EPA or top five in the league. Riley Moss has been a really nice just kind of up and comer. We were expecting outside of Sertan, they're going to be able to pick on everyone. Jaquan McMillan in the slot has been really good.

They are second in total sacks, sixth in quarterback pressures, and third in overall pressures. Gardner Minshew holds onto the football for too long. Again, top sixth, I think he is, in pressure to sack rate. I think it's a nice day for Zach Allen. It's a nice day for Jonathan Cooper.

I don't think they score a ton of points here, so even unders on the Raiders' team total. And I like the Broncos at home laying less than three. Love it. Only other note I had was with what Adam said about the Bears. I saw there was a bunch of three-and-a-halves popping earlier. I mean, I was dreaming when I thought maybe it would get to three. It did not get to three.

It's now back up to four, basically everywhere. So if you like it, probably left to go there. I mean, I think there's, it seems like virtually no shot that it gets down to three at this point, but you know,

that was the note that I had there for them. Cause I thought it was still a pretty sizable mismatch in favor of Chicago. Adam, I took more time than I promised. It's hard not to talk ball with you. Greatly, greatly appreciate it. So don't worry at all I appreciate it tell the folks if they somehow are

not familiar with your stuff where they can find all of your stuff I would say the best place is the Simple Handicap podcast on Apple and Spotify every day 5 a.m. Eastern 2 a.m. Pacific and then I'm also doing a lot over on the RAS Picks YouTube channel as well.

But you can probably just search for me on YouTube and something will come up that will get you where you need to be. So that's the two home spots right now for the year. Grateful for your time. Again, Adam has been in this industry in a multitude of ways for a very long time, understands the market and market dynamics as good as anyone. And we greatly appreciate you joining us today reminder again move the line two episodes a week four for four

bets youtube channel wherever you listen to podcasts come back on friday 3 p.m eastern connor myself john high slot for props we'll see you all then thanks everyone you