Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 5 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions | Rams, Bills & More!

Episode Date: October 4, 2023

Welcome to the ULTIMATE Week 5 NFL Betting Guide! This is your one-stop shop for all things betting in Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season. Dive into the most accurate predictions, best bets, and unbeatable odds, featuring teams like the Rams, Bills, and more! Who can stop Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and the Rams? How can we bet on the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen in Week 5? Those questions answered and more!CHAPTERS:0:00 Intro6:05 What We Got WRONG12:43 Jaguars vs. Bills Best Bets19:23 Bengals vs. Cardinals Best Bets28:01 Chiefs vs. Vikings Best Bets36:06 Eagles vs. Rams Best Bets42:50 Cowboys vs. 49ers Best Bets49:30 More Week 5 NFL Best Bets56:30 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansBecome a 4for4 Bets YouTube Member  👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/@4for4Bets/joinSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 360-degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best views of those pivotal plays. And, if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors.

Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. hello and welcome to move the line presented by fan duel sportsbook i'm ryan noonan joined here as always by my friends connor allen sharp cl, to talk week five, NFL Sides and Totals. Connor, what's going on, buddy? How are we doing today? Never been better. Went to a nice little Circa event last night, met some good people. Got to have a couple good drinks and learn about how to bet in a good way domestically without paying too much juice. So a lot of nice folks over there and they gave me a little hat that I'll be representing today. Yeah, excited to have Circa here in Illinois. You're able to do that without having to climb up to Waukegan either, which is a win for multiple reasons.

You don't have to make that drive. Waukegan is, if you've never been or never heard of it, you never have to go. Good for you. You're not missing anything by not having to make your way to Waukegan, Illinois. Clark, you have Circa there in Colorado as well. And I'd like to take advantage of that. How are we doing today, buddy? Good. Yeah, I like your hat, Connor.

I've been enjoying having Circa in Colorado since last year. And they ported over the same software this year. So now it's the same Las Vegas book, which is super nice. I was supposed to have a hat on today, specifically because I got absolutely bolt- raced by clark um we went offline because you know i took a very strong stance on the bangles last week and clark came back you know pushed back on the show a little bit and then we made a hat bet um i needed to wear fedora if the bangles were loose and clark was going to have a baseball cap uh presumably a backwards baseball

cat maybe even uh he has a baseball cap i didn't have a fedora i felt like i don't even need a fedora it's not a problem here turns out i needed a fedora in like the first quarter uh of the bangles and titans game i was unable to uh to land one between uh that game and and uh today's show but i will pay that debt debt for next week's show. I will be fedored up for that one to make sure I pay my dues. So it's not going to be a good look, but I can't pull it off like Clark does. But he has a fedora on, which means he won last week, which is a good thing. We all had winning weeks there too.

Connor, do you want to jump in? Well, I'm saying though, because if Clark is another winning week and then you're wearing a fedora, that means we got two fedoras on stream like do i have to not wear a hat like i feel like i normally wear a hat i feel like i'd not i can't wear a hat you know like or maybe we should all wear fedoras you know it's like a little little trio as long as we keep all winning yeah all right do you have do you own a fedora connor do you have a fedora i i don't actually i've been looking to expand my hat collection i got a little sailor's hat though maybe i'll rock the sailor's hat okay you could probably pull that off yeah pick that up at one of the many bachelor parties that i went to you know so it's it's very stylish or

bucket hat could roll with the bucket hat too yeah you know i'm old i was early in the bucket hat thing that went away and came i don't know did that come back i don't even know if that came back necessarily but door a different vibe when i was shopping for bucket for fedoras i saw bucket hats i saw full-on like what i told clark was like you know the man in the yellow hat from the curious george like full-on wide brim hats which wasn't what we're trying to do here a lot of ladies hats um you know with floral arrangements on the top also not what we're trying to deliver i want to you know for the integrity of the bets i wanted to have a true fedora so we'll we'll do that uh to go on to amazon or maybe make my way over to the mall and figure something out to be able to pay that because i i mean i would

pay it off anyway but i mean man uh and we'll get to the bangles here in the show but that uh that was a quick quick quick quick l um so yeah anyway three of us here every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. Should be able to find the podcast feed every Wednesday evening. So you can subscribe to both. You don't miss a show. Supporting this free content goes a long way in helping us out. Allows us to continue to bring you the very best content and tools in the industry.

Take a quick second. Share the video. Hit us with a thumbs up. Subscribe. We really, really appreciate that um if you're hanging out with us on youtube jump in the chat let us know what your favorite week five look is currently on the board don't forget there are two episodes every week we also have the prop drop show it's connor myself and john hyslop friday afternoons 3 p.m eastern as well both in podcast

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We are also, you know, prize picks, underdog, vivid picks. If you're in a non-legal state and that's the only way you have access to we have that channel all those channels as well too those are actually free uh so you can get in there as well even without the betting sub uh but yeah i definitely want to take advantage of that you can use promo code youtube because we really want you to hang out with us on youtube use the promo code youtube and you get 25 off we've also moved off of now that we're week five we've already discounted the sub anyway. So a discounted sub plus the 25% off, like we're getting into a very, very, very, very affordable price range for anybody. You know, your, your season long team's

starting to go sideways. Hey, but we bet all year it's zero and zero every week. So you can start fresh. You don't have to worry about that. 444.com slash plans. You can jump in the show notes here for more details. Before we jump into the specifics here of week five, I want to get your guys' thoughts real quick off the top. I didn't prep you for this, but I feel like it's important to kind of touched on a little bit at the top of the shows last couple of weeks. But we are through four weeks and it used to be kind of like a quarter poll at that point, and then we have the extra game. We have a little bit more stats and details where we can really start to make some decisions off of what we've seen this year, moving off of prior a little bit. I think that there's a give and take there. And I think

being able to nail how much you're still on priors and how much you're on what we've seen this year is kind of the secret to handicapping but I want some thoughts on specific teams that you guys maybe are wrong on either way team that is worse than you thought exceeding your expectations maybe for you Clark I know with modeling that maybe a team that's maybe seen the biggest adjustment and what you've done there in the preseason. And I'll start with you. Floor is yours. Anyone that you feel like you were really wildly off in terms of what we were in the preseason? At this point, I don't use any priors. I'm using only 2023 data at this point. I mean, there's some sort of softer things that you just, you know, you know about these players, you know about these teams generally, but they're not factored in my numbers.

Obviously, the biggest downgrade has been the Bengals. I think it goes deeper than Joe Burrow's injury. I think the defense has been vastly underperforming. I think, you know, last year, their short, quick passing game was working, and it was getting the ball out quick, and it was negating any pressure. And theoretically, they should be able to do the same thing, even with Joe Burrow's calf. But the problem is defenses have kind of figured it out. And right now they don't have a counterpunch. They don't have anything deep.

They're not stretching the field. Everything is tight. Everything is hard. So both sides of the ball, the Bengals have been, you know, by far the biggest downgrade. But as far as, you know, completely non-injury related, I was wrong about Miami's offense. Like, I mean, I knew that this was within the range of outcomes, but I think we talked about how, you know, down the stretch last year, even in Tua's games, there was some, the defense has caught up to some of what Miami was doing on offense.

And they just come out absolutely blazing this year. So that's been really impressive for me. I think another team that I've been sort of surprised by, even despite maybe mediocre results, is the Raiders. I think they've been fairly competitive, surprisingly good on offense and surprisingly good on defense as well. They were kind of a team that I think some of us were just ready to write off and say, hey, it's time to tank. I don't think they're, I don't think they have that mentality and I don't think they have that level of play on the field. If Jimmy Garoppolo is back this week, then um i don't think they're they don't i think they have that mentality and i don't think they have that level of play on the field if jimmy garoppolo is back this week then i mean i think they're they're still competing they're still fighting so those are probably three

of the the biggest movers for me yeah those are good ones connor anything that jumps out to you in terms of teams that we felt like maybe could be wildly different uh good or bad uh yes i think arizona was a one that is vastly outperformed my expectations. I mean, just like we had very low expectations for both offense and defense. Their offense has been pretty good. I think they're like top 10 in some metrics even, which is pretty crazy. Um, but they've, I mean, they've had good game plans. They played a couple of good defenses and been solid, you know, and Josh Dobbs has delivered when needed to the defense still has plenty of questions, but I mean, they're getting getting it done here so I think that's an interesting one two that I think we got one kind of off the wall one that I think we got

right that was really not talked about was the Houston Texans we talked about the underrated possibility of them being like potentially good uh you know like in our divisional preview and like kind of leading up the season and I think in week one we were like you know maybe not you know like that wasn't gonna happen but the last few weeks, I mean, they looked great. Their defense, despite being super banged up, has played really well. Their offensive line, despite starting second stringers in and out for half the season, has still played reasonably well. And CJ Stroud has looked like the real deal.

So I think all of those now, they've played a relatively soft schedule in there as well. But I think that when you think about what we talked about there, like having this team be okay was something that we were, I think I had to market on there significantly. So them. And then I think there's a couple other teams that we, you know, like the Titans are, I think still kind of in between, but you know, they did a really, really good job shutting down the Bengals last week. It was like, I went back and watched that game tight man coverage on third down and just blitzing and getting pressure on Burrow because he was a cupcake. Couldn't move. They had just no answer like Clark said.

So I think that the game planning edge, again, just stays with the variable. Like it's just so like the coaching is just fantastic. That's a good one. Texans are a great one too, because they've been decimated on both sides and very competitive, like starting one offensive lineman that they were intending to start at the beginning of the season

and playing really good football, massive injuries, for the most part, up the middle defensively. You know, getting – look, you made a big trade. You're not just getting C.J. Stroud, but, you know, moving up and making that play with Arizona. Well, Anderson Jr. is third in pass rusher win rate. Like, he's getting it done as well. So, like, they're getting a lot out of those two guys.

I believe that D'Amico Ryans, I saw enough in the preseason. That was kind of our thing too. That's a legit head coach. Guys like playing for him. You can tell they're creative. Bobby Sloak's been awesome with what they've been able to do. And I think CJ Stroud's been better than what we thought as well too. Can a defensive coordinator win coach of the year?

Because what Raheem Morris is doing with the Rams is incredibly impressive. They are like middle of the pack to like bottom middle of the pack in almost everything. But still, I thought, I mean, any chance I got to tell you how bad I thought the Rams defense was going to be, I took it. Because I just think the talent is still not good. And they've been competitive. Now, again, things get a little bit easier when Matthew Stafford's healthy. He's absolutely cooking. Sean McVay is getting stuff done. Now they're going to get Cooper cut back. So that offense is going to continue to fire. But I think what Raheem Morris has been

able to do has been pretty awesome. I'm not sure that I'm like, I'm not out all the way on the Rams, not being very good, but their offense is going to be so good. They're going to be competitive. The bucks are another one. Like they've been healthy ish. Baker's been okay. Ish. But someone's going to win that division. Like that was a bad,

I guess a good win for them in new Orleans last week. So I think that's a, that's one too. And obviously the bangles are, you know, I just doubled down on priors last week and just said, I think the bangles are going to be fine. And obviously the Bengals are – I just doubled down on Pryor's last week and just said I think the Bengals are going to be fine and Ryan Tannehill is trash.

And, yeah, Vrabel shoved that down my throat and will make me wear a fedora for an hour next week. But, yeah, that's an interesting process. I want to get your guys' thoughts to see. And I'd like to hear from Clark to hear, hey, I'm off of Pryor's. I'm just on 2023 tape and what we have this year. So I think that's one other shout out that we didn't mention was the colts the colts have been i you know i bet on their

season win total under and that was a bad bet i may still cash i doubt it but they've looked really really good that whole division has just been like i could see any one of those four teams winning division yeah the steelers were a team that we weren't all on but there was a lot of national love for the Steelers and they've just absolutely been abysmal um and that division having the Steelers kind of not be who some people thought they were going to be the Bengals kind of fell back question marks with some injuries in Cleveland that division is not really what we thought it was going to be so it's uh it's interesting to just kind of check in and see what your guys thoughts are now we can uh jump into the board here in week five.

We'll start with the London game early Sunday morning. We have Jacksonville and Buffalo here. This was like three and a half over the summer. Got out to four and a half last week. And now we're basically Buffalo minus five and a half across the board. Total on FanDuel, 48 and a half. There are some 49s in the market, so shop around. Kind of an unprecedented situation.

We've never had a team play back-to-back games in London. Interesting for the Jags to kind of do this, though this is a Bills home game, so it's interesting here. But awesome performance from the Bills on both sides of the ball last week. Absolutely dominating Miami for parts of that game. Some bad turnovers in Buffalo territory for Miami. I think kind of flipped that one in a different way than maybe what the final score tells you,

but still incredible performance from Josh Allen. He was just outstanding. As many touchdown passes as incompletions finished with a perfect passer rating, whatever you think of that metric, but it was perfect on the 14.4 adjusted net yards per attempt. Just unbelievable. Uh,

defense again, showed up opportunistic uh clark will let you get started with jacksonville and buffalo here yeah the travel situation is interesting because uh you know we haven't seen a team stay london what we have seen in the past is is when teams like from the east coast travel to the west coast and then stay over there in the west coast and stay in a hotel they're just they're spending a lot of time together building team chemistry all that kind of stuff like it's softer stuff doesn't go into my numbers, but it does seem like a good spot for Jacksonville to kind of pick up some momentum. Whereas Buffalo's having to come,

you know, from America after a big game. So I don't, I don't, I don't factor that in, but I know some people that do. So I think that would favor Jacksonville here. I think the number is, is pretty close to right. You know, the bills are a far superior team. They have been all year. But when you have a quarterback like Trevor Lawrence with a big spread as an underdog, you start to get really dangerous because to cover a big spread, you have to be winning by a lot

to prevent that inevitable backdoor touchdown. And so I'm not really willing to go there with the Bills. I think what I prefer here is the over. It's been coming down a little bit. There's some 48s in the market right now. I know a bookmaker has 48, but this is two elite quarterbacks and no questions about the Bills offense. I don't think I have to convince anyone of that. What I will convince people of is that the Jaguars offense is going to get better. They've been failing in high leverage situations, you know, time and again.

And I don't believe that that's random. I don't think that, you know, high leverage performance is just variance. And so it was bound to get better. What I do believe is that certain types of high variance failures tend to get better things like accurate passes that are dropped by receivers, things like, you know, receivers catching passes with their toes on the white things like that tend to actually improve versus like getting stuffed on third and two like that just means you don't have a good offensive line and good play calling you don't trust your quarterback the jaguars have all the things that lead to you know positive results in those high leverage moments they have an elite quarterback they have a good play caller they have a good run game so i do believe that they're going to you know start clicking eventually this is a good play caller. They have a good run game. So I do believe that they're going to, you know, start clicking eventually.

This is a good spot for that with a Bill's defense. It might be a bit tough. It might be a bit tired and missing trade. Avious white. We'll see if I'm in other plays, even if he does, it'll probably be limited snap count wise. So I like either team to score. I like, you know,

whichever team is losing to put points on the board and comeback mode. I think there's lots of ways this over gets home. Interesting. Yeah. I don't hate that at all. Connor, any thoughts? You Jags get cam robinson back i believe this week too it should be hopefully a boost to the offensive line um because they've i think theoretically i want to think that they have a good running game they haven't been running the ball well so far this year i think he might be

six games is he was it wasn't he peds i don't remember off the bat. Honestly, I don't think so. Let me check, but yeah, go ahead, Connor. We can figure it out. Yeah. So I,

my biggest notes here was that basically this Jags defense, I think it was kind of an interesting matchup because they played pretty well against the chiefs. They struggled like a lot against the Texans. They locked up the Falcons and then we're just like, okay. Against the Colts. So I don't know.

I kind of dug into what they do. They play a ton of single high looks. And Josh Allen, dating back to last year, if we look at him against single high looks, completed 70% of his passes, eight and a half yards per attempt. So really, I don't think that there's anything to worry about there specifically

for this matchup for this Jags team here. The Jags also play a ton of heavy boxes, which is like they're one of the highest in the league in heavy boxes, which in my mind means that buffalo is just not going to try and run the ball into that uh like josh allen's probably going to check out of that a lot probably throw the ball so i think we're probably going to see a lot fewer runs here a lot more passes which i think kind of lends to clark's point towards the over like if we get more passing volume definitely helps kind of what's going to happen here and then another side to Buffalo defense can be without Travis white. Um, you know, like we saw them potentially, you know, struggle at certain

times without him, uh, you know, in previous years. So like, I, I think that in this spot here that we could see, it could go either way. Like Jacksonville's defense is just like randomly showed up and I can't find a whole lot statistically why. Uh, and so, you know, that's kind of where I struggle with this game, but I do think that Buffalo, especially after their uh and so you know that's kind of where i struggle with this game but i do think that buffalo especially after their week one you know little speed bump they've just been absolutely rolling and and i do agree with clark that this jacksonville offense is significantly better than what we've seen so far it just like isn't there yet and maybe this isn't like a perfect get right spot but i don't think it's that bad i do think that that's kind of the travel situation the you know playing overseas's kind of the travel situation.

The, you know, playing overseas is kind of baked in here. Cause I feel like this would probably, I don't know if this is more of a neutral situation, which I think it kind of is. I think it's probably at least six. Maybe I'm wrong there, but I think the five and a half is,

is interesting. If you are bullish on the bills, which I am, Clark makes a good point. I do think that, you know, Jacksonville is a tough team to be laying that five and a half number with the possibility of something coming on the back door but uh yeah i mean i think it's going to be interesting to see i mean i do

think that again the jags do get cam robertson's a four game suspension should be back this week you know 30th in run block win rate they're going to have to create some holes again like they're dead last in EPA, you know, on the ground so far this season and the bills have been getting a ton of pressure. They lead the league in pressure rate. They almost do it exclusively with four,

even if Von Miller's like a situational pass rusher who plays 25% of the snaps, it's probably pretty good. So it's big Trevor Lawrence game here. So I think if you are bullish on, you know, the Jags keeping it competitive here, we probably need Lawrence to, you know, exceed maybe what he's done so far. I was kind of disappointed last week.

I thought he'd have a nice game picking apart, maybe some, you know, offensive or some man coverage from the Falcon side, just really kind of struggled to get things going there. So I'm interested in the bills, but again, it's a little bit of a big number, not a play for me, but I definitely lead bills. More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 360-degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best views of those pivotal plays.

And if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. All right, gentlemen, we will keep the train rolling. We will now talk about the Bengals. Bengals are on the road in Arizona. This was Cincinnati minus seven and a half in the look at window that vanished quickly. This is now basically painted minus three across the board, total sitting at 44 and a half in most spots. This sort of line movement is pretty rare considering

that there wasn't a major injury to the opposing quarterback and look we know that joe burrow isn't right uh that's clear but he's no worse in this game than he was heading into the tennessee situation um i think it's just maybe a correction in the market of maybe like we talked about the top moving off of priors you know on both these teams teams. It's just kind of coalescing in the middle where, hey, maybe we underrated Arizona and we definitely overrated Cincinnati at the current iteration. So I'm not saying that this is wrong. I think it makes a lot of sense. Now, look, Carolina's defense or Arizona's defense was really bad against the 49ers.

49ers do that to a lot of teams. I think that the Bengals are going to be hard 49ers 49ers do that to a lot of teams i think that the bangles are going to be hard pressed to do that but uh clearly the market and everyone else is too high on the bangles here connor uh thoughts on this one yeah so when i went back and analyzed the game we talked about at the top a little bit here but basically zach taylor just doesn't really care about what weaknesses are of the other teams he was running a ton on first and second down a lot of draw plays, like, which is the complete wrong decision,

especially after he, and we saw him against the Rams basically just like throw every single first and second down quick, get the ball quick, like really try and emphasize that edge. They didn't do that. They got into a lot of tough third and fourth, third and five situations with a Titan,

just press the shit out of the, you know, the wide receivers and either blitz or got pressure. And then Burrow couldn't move. Now the issue with that in this game is that does Jonathan Gannon follow that blueprint and do that here? Because that has not been their MO so far, the lowest blitz rate in the league. Like they play very much like back off. They don't, they don't do exactly what the Titans just did. And so I worry, well, not worry, but like in my mind, I'm like, is there a chance that now we see the Bengals go out and look reasonably competent again, because Joe Burrow is not going to get pressured and he's going to

pick apart a bad secondary. Like that's kind of where I'm at at this point. Um, and so I don't want to be like the guy backing Joe Burrow every week, especially at this point. But at the same time, I think that the over is an interesting player, like 44 and a half, 45. Like, I just don't, I don't know, like Jonathan Gannett, it's just never who Jonathan Gannett has been. He's always been kind of like play his scheme, do his thing and like, you know, keep contained, like play a lot of too high. Like that's just like what he's done. And I think that that doesn't really mesh well with like how you absolutely murder the Bengals, which is what we saw the Titans do last week.

And so maybe there's other ways to skin the cat, you know, there's other ways to approach it, but I just don't think that what their current game plan or what we've seen so far is would be wise here. So I think towards the over here, I also think Arizona's offense, as we mentioned top of the show,

pretty underrated at this point in the Bengals defense has not been playing well at all. So I think those two factors there is that if we get any push from Arizona, any push from Cincinnati here, I don't think 44 and a half is a very large total. Kudos to you, Clark. You were early on this action.

Yeah, I don't hate that look. Jonathan Gannon doesn't adjust his defense for anybody. So if that's your angle, I think that's fine. Yeah, I mean, like I said, I'm using only this year's data in my numbers. And so, you know, it's not a shock that I would like the Cardinals here. You don't have the Cardinals as a favorite. Yeah, like based on this year's numbers. Now, the whole like, you know, ignore priors thing has limitations, right? And one of those limitations is, have the Bengals been for the first four weeks, who we would expect them to be in week five? And I think that's an open question, right? Burrow came out of practice saying, you know, this is the best I've felt all season. Yeah, he's gonna say that whether or not that's true. But if it is true, you know, you can kind of see, well, maybe those four games of data on the Bengals aren't reflective of what

we should expect in week five. But based on this year's data, I make Cardinals minus three. Now, again, that you have to you have to factor in the fact that the Bengals might look better. That also factors T Higgins being out, which apparently he's day to day now, you know, coming out of that game, I thought his injury was serious enough to, you know, say he's not playing next week. If he plays, if Burrow's healthy, obviously that number's wrong. Um, but the Cardinals offense is not getting the respect that they've earned. I mean, they've played the 49ers and the Cowboys and the commanders. Um, and then I don't know who their fourth team is, but you know, decent defenses all year. And yet they're, they're looking pretty good.

Like they're doing what they want to do. Michael Wilson had some sick routes, you know, last week, Marquise Brown's getting involved. Their run game is working. I don't even know what it is that they're doing. I don't know their offensive coordinators history, but it's working on the field against pretty good defenses. Um, and the only reason they, they, you know, got blown out by San Francisco is because of the fact that San Francisco was because of the

fact that San Francisco never got stopped which is the concern here right is that if the Bengals have a get right spot on their schedule this is the get right spot at least offensively so this this bet could look silly if the Bengals just you know march down the field and score in every drive but even if they do you know I'm low on the Bengals defense and I'm high on the Cardinals offense I mean I have the Cardinals offense as the 15th ranked offense, so they can, you know, at home, they can keep pace. Like I think getting over a field goal was a no brainer for me at the three. It's a little bit tougher, but I still lean Cardinals. I do think this will come off the three and go back down under, under the three, whether or not it stays there is another question,

but I do think we see a two and a half at some point. Interesting. Yeah. Four and a half becomes even more valuable. The Bengals have just been – the Tennessee Titans entered that game, I think, 27th in pressure rate. So it was like, man, they can't even really take advantage of a stiff burrow back there, and they absolutely did. So to Connor's point, do we see a pivot?

Does Jonathan Gagnon do something different than he typically does? I think they'd be wise to do so. I think it'd be maybe foolish to assume rational coaching based off of what we've seen him do historically. So it's just been, it's been bad. I mean, they, they have no run game to speak of. They're 31st in total rushing yards right now. That doesn't help.

It's more than Burrow's injury. I think, like you said, the defense has been a problem as well. They have not been able to speak of. They're 31st in total rushing yards right now. That doesn't help. It's more than Burrow's injury. I think, like you said, the defense has been a problem as well. They have not been able to get off the field. They can't get to the red zone. They are not converting to the red zone. Through four weeks, only six Bengals drives have made it to the red zone. Only Pittsburgh has fewer. Pittsburgh has five.

They're dead last in yards per drive, points per drive. The Bengals. I know Burrow's not well, but this is like – I i just didn't i don't think this can be this bad so i'm optimistic it doesn't mean i'm back in the bangles i think i would love to have the four and a half that clark jumped on and that was a really good number and dobbs has been legit like dobbs is part of what's been happening here he's eighth in adjusted completion percentage 78.3 he's 11th in uh just in net yards per attempt really good he's not taking sacks he has not turned the ball over no picks and he's creating with his legs last couple games he's been putting up some like gaudy

rushing numbers so yeah i mean like he's just taking advantage of this opportunity they're getting it done they're exceeding expectations and totally like just nothing to prove kind of year for for them, which is going to be very interesting to see how the next couple of weeks go out. But, yeah, I mean, to me, still at three, three and a half, it's probably carts. And I have been a pro-Burro, pro-Bengals guy for sure over the last couple of years. So, yeah, this is going to be an interesting to watch. Definitely maybe a resetting.

And, again, it might be in the same spot next week. It like all right if the bangles look competent it's like oh yeah they did it against the cardinals like right we had it's gonna be really hard to to move forward on bangles stuff for another couple of weeks but yeah it should be a game i did not think we'd be talking about uh in week four would be a cincinnati uh arizona game but here we are it's hilarious because you you think like heading into the season that the Cardinals are going to be in a great spot to have like such good draft picks for next year. And you have, you know, the Texans like crushing, and then you have like the Cardinals playing reasonably well. I mean, they're going to win some other games that they shouldn't just

like they did before. So like, I mean, and then where do you go from there? Because we just, Josh Dobbs, your guy, like they're going to have to, they're going to have a very interesting off season. You know, it's just something that comes to my mind where it's like, whereas the bears are actually in a reasonably good position to actually make some moves. Bears are a great spot. It'll be something we can talk about in the future. Oh yeah.

I mean, can't get much better than, you know, Caleb and Marvin Harrison jr. If, if that, you know, the season ended today. Good run out for Chicago for sure. All right. Next we have Kansas city on the road in Minnesota. So this is Minnesota plus six in the look-ahead window. Reopened at that number and has been steadily dropping.

Now on FanDuel, it's Minnesota plus four. Four and a half is out there as well. So you can shop. You can shop the total too. It looks like FanDuel 52 and a half. There are 51s and a half. There are 53 and a half. So take a look if you have a lean.

Again, kicking around in between key numbers there between 51 and 54, but they're 53 and a half. So take a look if you have a lean again, kicking around in between key numbers there between 51 and 54, but definitely worth a look. Clark, you jumped in early on this one as well. Floor here is yours on Kansas City, Minnesota. Yeah, there are angles on both sides of this game that I think are interesting. The obvious one is Minnesota is the most blitz every team in NFL, and it's Patrick Mahomes. Throughout his entire career, blitzing Mahomes has been death for the defense. He's just eviscerated every blitz he's faced. I think that's probably still true, and I think that Andy Reid and him are smart enough to figure out how to attack this defense.

But his lack of trust in wide receivers i think would give me a little bit of pause and leaning too heavily in that angle because that is one of the ways that he's really burned blitzing teams is by getting his receivers the ball um he doesn't seem to trust his receivers much most of the passes to receivers against the jets were sweeps or easy throws like he's not really he's not really trusting sometimes like when he scrambles around long enough, someone finally gets open and he'll throw it downfield. But it's causing this Chiefs offense some problems. On the other side of the ball,

I think I'm optimistic about the Vikings offense still. I think these fumbles, these mistakes, they're not things that tend to sustain. It's very frustrating when you are sort of a regression-based better and then things that shouldn't happen again happen again. but that doesn't mean you should change the way like numbers are numbers statistics statistics they do normalize these types of things so um i think the vikings offense should be able to kind of you know trade punch for punch for most of this game especially at home um their offensive line appears to be getting healthier. I saw Garrett Bradbury,

I think was limited today. That's an injury to watch. If he's playing, then that Vikings offensive line is back to full strength for the first time. And that's optimistic. I would say, you know, hey, look, I like both offenses, let's play the over, but 53 is a big number. So many ways that can go south. It's just not a... I don't love playing overs in high total games because there's just one long methodical drive and then a failed fourth down conversion and an eighth of the game has disappeared with no points, right?

And it just really crunches that window. So I like the Vikings in this one because when the game is projected to be offensive on both sides, I like taking the points when it's over a field goal because um there's just a lot of ways that end game scenarios favor the underdog in those situations kind of like we talked about with the with the bills and the jags but in this case i actually do like the underdogs yeah colors is going to be interesting i mean i

think a lot of past attempts here because we have two of the top heavy pass rate over expectation teams minnesota has actually been pretty good from a pass protection standpoint. They do get some of the offensive linemen back. That could help a little bit too. Kansas City has actually been really good getting pressure. Their third pressure rate so far this season, just to take under 30% of the dropbacks. So pressure on both sides, because obviously to Clark's points,

the blitz versus Mahomes thing is definitely a huge part of the handicap here. Yeah. I dug into that a little bit more here because specifically it's a lot of like zone blitzes. So last year, uh, yeah. And last year he had like a 64% completion rate, nine yards per attempt, but two touchdowns and three interceptions. So it's like pretty uneven. And if you go back to his other, actually played one game against the Brian Flores defense, I believe it was 2021, something like that. So in that game, it was like almost identical to what, what I looked at, you know, prior, it was 393 passing yards, two touchdowns, but three picks. So it's like when, you know, he's able to get a big play, like he's absolutely ripping them, you know, like when they don't get home basically, but when they do get home,

like it causes a little bit of uncertainty. And I think that that's, that's okay. You know, I think that's fine. It's just like going to be create a pretty wild game, I think. And then on the other side of the ball here, specifically the chief play a top five rated man coverage. Kirk cousins last year had massive man, man versus own splits, but those got fixed after like half through the year this season, we're seeing them absolutely crush against man, 67% completion rate, 9.7 yards per attempt. Now he's getting Gary Bradbury back, which will help against Chris Jones. So yeah, I think that my play on this, I was kind of struggling to play it because I do agree the total is a little high.

Minnesota team total, 23 and a half on the over there. I think it's a pretty good look under the 24. That's probably how I would approach it because I do agree. I think that this game could go well over total but i i feel pretty good on minnesota getting like 24 you know 26 27 range yeah and obviously to go along with the kirk cousins stuff is justin jarvison against man has been like really really good too so again like even the teams now they're like man heavy the cowboys play more man than anyone they're still playing more zone than they're playing anything else so like it is very skewed to uh zone defense in the league the interesting stuff in flores a lot of his miami blitz heavy stuff was with man in the

back um now they're playing a lot of zone which is great that's encouraging because that was our concern in the in the preseason was like how can this secondary hold up to all this zero coverage, man coverage, one-on-one on the outside with this blitz-heavy scheme? But the zone stuff is very interesting. Now, when they do it, they're not getting home, which is still a problem. So they've blitzed on 57% of the defensive snaps, which again, leaves the league very high. They're 30th and blitz success rate and 29th overall and pressure rate at just 17 that is problematic with mahomes because either way even though you're zoned in the back like he's going to still have options to get there um and now they're doing

it with a lot of single high looks too so yeah they're in zone but single high has been really good for my homes too so that stuff makes me a little bit nervous on the minnesota side as well but you know i think that the process there is good Clark and again I think part of it is I think it's part of your handicap is does he have beaters on the outside I don't feel like he trusts them necessarily I don't know that he knows who that guy is right now so it can be a lot of stuff quick and underneath it could be a good Kelsey game where because they're sitting back in zone where you could get some of the stuff that's you know low and underneath maybe the the running backs as well in the receiving game could be a

part of it too but yeah i mean i'm with you guys the total feels high but probably would be my lean but yeah like clark said it's it's one long drive that doesn't convert and all of a sudden you're like you're working uphill for the rest of the game so could be an interesting one to watch for sure i want to see the minnesota offensive line injury report here too, because I think that's really impactful. I do think that Rasheed Rice, sorry, go for it. I was just going to say the single high stuff was more of a problem in the parts of Mahomes' career when he had a receiver he trusted, namely Tyree Cale. But even the secondary receivers he's had over the years have been better at least to the four weeks to date than he's had this year. So a lot of Kelsey,

a lot of running backs. We'll see. I was going to say that I like the emergence of Rishi Rice because I think he's kind of giving him that, like, actually go-to option, especially down the road. Maybe it's not this week, but, like, further down in the season, I think when we have a fully healthy Travis Kelsey running all the routes, we have Rishi Rice, we probably have MBS just running, like,

cardio on the outside most of the time. But you know that's okay you know you need to kind of need you to clear out guy anyway so but having a couple good underneath options there and maybe getting mckinnon more involved could i mean we could see the chief's offense i think go back to what we've seen in previous years maybe not full-on with tyree kill but like i could see them being a little bit more competent than you know i feel like they've been just okay so far, you know, like, like,

like Clark's been saying, like there's, there's not anyone dependable like Skymore and, you know, everyone else has not been playing very well. I don't think. Yeah. Yeah.

There's no, there's no guy to support Kelsey along with what he was doing. Like at least last year, like for whatever you want to say about Juju, like there was some really good Juju weeks and he was at least like a safety net in the slot and they had some good weeks together but yeah it's there's they don't even have that right now so yeah interesting to see all right next we have philly on the road in la against the rams this is pretty much held steady rams plus four and a half totals been on the move though

came back out sunday night 46 and a half steamed out to 50 and a half, basically across the board. Clark, you were on this as well. I'll let you talk about the Eagles and the Rams. Yeah, I agree with the move on the total. The Eagles offense has been figuring things out the last few weeks in a way that I've really enjoyed watching. Last year, they kind of had, they have really, really good play calling by Shane Steichen.

And this year early on, I haven't really seen that. There's been some dysfunction. There's been some hesitation, some lack of, you know, calling the right plays at the right time, not really setting things up in a holistic way. Against Washington, I started to see that click. I started to see, you know, the same kinds of routes like that. The touchdown to A.J. Brown where, you know,

he runs like he's running a go route and then kind of cuts in at the last second and the ball is just kind of falling into the middle of the field. And then he has that catch where the room is in front of him. Reminds me of what Tyreek Hill did a lot in Kansas City. And he scores a touchdown, a big, big explosive play. They haven't been doing that. And what that does is it forces defensive backs to account for the deep plays to A.J. Brown and Devont Smith. And so then what they set up is A.J. Brown and Devont Smith. And so then what they set up is, you know, A.J. Brown running full speed and then, you know, running a curl eight yards down the field

and Hurts hits him on the money because he's got time for that short of a route to develop every time. And then the defender comes and tackles A.J. Brown. No big deal. They've got second and two. And when you're the Eagles and you have second and two, your conversion rate for a first down

is extremely, extremely high. And so I think if they can keep doing things like that, those kinds of systems that build on themselves, then I'm very optimistic about this offense. But Matthew Stafford's been playing really well. The Rams offense has been playing lights out. They haven't dropped off without Cooper Cup. I'm skeptical that he plays this week, but he wants to play. That's fairly optimistic. So I do see points on both sides here. The Eagles defense hasn't really been very imposing, especially for kind of gunslinger quarterbacks that are willing to test downfield. We saw Sam Howell do it, and we saw Kirk Cousins

do it, right? So quarterbacks that have the ability to throw downfield are the ones that have caused them the problems. Stafford can do that. So I agree with the move on the over. I do think, again, the points is a little much to give a really good offense at home, but the Eagles have also been playing really well offensively. So they can totally, you know, drain the life out of this game in the second half and prevent a backdoor cover or prevent a comeback if they build a big lead. So I lean the Ramsams you know at the at the current number but i wouldn't want to play it much closer to three yeah i'm with you i agree that this team on the total makes sense i think their way to still get into it if you were interested would be a first half over

that's been something that's worked very well for the eagles uh they did last year now that i think that they're finding their footing a little bit i think that that makes some sense and we've seen an interesting approach, and maybe they need to do it the whole game because the Rams took their foot off the gas last week against the Colts, and it almost cost them. They came out. They played very fast.

They ran a bunch of no huddle, and they jumped out to a big lead, 20 zip. And then in the second half, there was almost none of that. They played conservatively. They tried to hold on to the lead and then almost didn't, right, and took them to overtime, and they had to go out and win it again in overtime. So if you missed the total and you didn't get in early, I think maybe a first half look would be interesting. Connor, any thoughts here on filling in the Rams?

Yeah, the Rams defense, interestingly enough. So they lead the league in light box rate so far, 74% and in too high shell rate, 77%. In those situations so far, Jalen hurts 71% completion rate. Um, but my biggest takeaway here is the running game because the Eagles running game leads the league in yards per carry against light boxes. Uh, and which obviously makes perfect sense. You know, like they have a dominant rush, uh, offensive line. Dray Andre Swift has looked super explosive. He looks dominant. I mean, arguably the best I think he's looked in his career at this point. And so they're adding,

I think it's 2.2 yards before contact like so far against light boxes, which is like insane. So if you're going to get that 70% of the time, I mean, it's not the prop show, but it's something that I got on my list for sure, because I think that they're going to be able to have a great day on, on the,

on the ground. And then, like you said, I think the Rams are probably going to have plenty of success throwing the ball to keep up. I don't think they're going to run the ball very well. Uh, you know, we talked about it last week. I think the Rams are the Eagles run defense continues to be play pretty well. And then their past defense has a couple more questions and the Rams running offense has not been very efficient to date. Uh, you know, they've had a lot of yards, but like took Kyron Williams 25 plus carries

to get like 104 yards. So, you know, I don't really think that that's very representative. So I think we're going to see a lot of passing here, which I think, again, probably lends towards the over as well. The total though is tough. I mean, what did you see for that first half number? I haven't looked.

So you're probably 24 and a half, maybe 26 and a half. I haven't looked. So you're probably 24 and a half, maybe 26 and a half. I haven't looked at it. Yeah, 24 and a half. Yeah. I mean, well, you know. It's interesting to me. Yeah.

Yeah, and if the Rams continue to do what they were doing with no huddle and pushing the pace, and we know that the Eagles typically like to do that too, like to get into the spot where they can kind of dictate the second half. Yeah. I mean, I think the Rams are gonna have a lot of success when you think about where you can attack the Eagles right now, where they're most susceptible is over the middle of the field.

That's it's a new linebacker crew. Those linebackers are injured. It's the backups for new linebacker crew. They've had a ton of injuries at slot corner at safety the rams throw over the middle the second highest rate in the league they're winning there and i think you're gonna see them continue to win there and continue to attack there whether or not cooper cup's in this game now even if it's limited cooper cup that's also you know more exciting for the rams offense which i think we know why there's optimism and reason for upside here. So interesting spot for the Eagles because they're 4-0,

and no one's like, we're not buzzing about the Eagles. It's like, eh, 4-0, it didn't look really good. It's a really good spot to be. Again, they haven't really, you know, had to beat anyone of substance really yet, but good spot to be in where you can, you know, just kind of get off to a, hey, we're just going to win, go, you know, 4-0 to start the season, and then we'll figure out the rest of it. New OC, new defensive coordinator.

So, yeah, it's definitely an interesting spot for them, and I think they're going to be in the mix here again. So, yeah, Clark's numbers continue to hate the Eagles, and this is the Bengals of last year for Clark, who looks right this year for sure, right? I mean, the anti-Bengals takes are looking pretty strong. Yeah. I'm also two and one against the spread fading Philadelphia. So it's, it's not really costing me much or it's making me money right now.

Take it buddy. All right. Next last one. Absolutely. Great game. Dallas on the road in San Francisco. We've had a few little duds last week to primetime spots. Thursday night was a dud. Thursday night was a dud. Monday night was a dud outside of Devin Witherspoon. But that will not be the case here. San Francisco minus three and a half in most spots. Total up to 45.

Obviously a rematch from last year's divisional round matchup. And again, two of the best three teams in the NFC. A lot of strength on the strength here. Both offenses, top three in yards per drive, percent of drives that end in a score. Both offenses, top three in yards per drive, percent of drives that end in a score. Both defenses, top 10 in basically every meaningful metric. Dallas top three in most. Now, they're legit.

We thought they were going to be legit this season. I don't think there's anything to really poke holes in the Dallas defense. They have played Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones, and they lost to Josh Dobbs. So they've really not played anything resembling what this 49ers offense is so far. So, Connor, floor to you for this Sunday night football matchup. Yeah, I like the Niners here. I think at minus three and a half is a good look.

We saw Arizona, I think, expose them on the ground a lot. I think we're going to see that a lot here, especially with the Niners here. I think at minus three and a half is a good look. We saw Arizona, I think expose them on the ground a lot. I think we're going to see that a lot here, especially with the Niners now dominant. They've been on the ground. So I think that's probably my biggest angle here. Other than that, like, I don't know.

I, I think that this couple was even as good, like you said, but I'm just thinking that they might be a little bit overrated and the Cowboys offense, like their numbers, they look good in the numbers. They've had some good games, but I'm just not entirely sold on them either. Like I, it just,

they've had so many games. Yeah. They haven't really had like a normal football game yet. Yeah. And it's almost the reason that I'm like not leveraging a bunch of stats for this game because they've had like a bunch of blowouts, but like they have, I mean, I, it's just one of those things where I lean San Francisco. I feel confident that I know what San Francisco is. I feel confident that they're good. And I think the Dallas is defense is exploitable on the ground. But other than that, I don't have too many other strong takes. Yeah. I mean, Brock Purdy has been awesome, Clark. Um, I don't know what your thoughts are on, on this one, but, uh, it's going to be a good one. Yeah. Yeah. I mean the 49ers, I don't, I'm not like a, I hate brock purdy thing but like it is it is an easy

mode for brock purdy like i this is the same thing that happened to jalen hurts last year it was like it's it's it's hard when you watch all the film because you see how difficult some quarterbacks have it and then how easy other quarterbacks have it and and then the popular media is just being like oh well brock purdy is like so good look at his stats and it's like if you just looked at a little bit of the context but the thing is the context is still there this is still the four nine plays within the context he doesn't have to play in anyone else's context like that's his that's his reality and like if if you're fading brock purdy because you think he's not as good you're fading the 49ers, right? And that's a big mistake. I think the number here is right on.

I think I make it like 3.36. So, you know, I'm not really seeing an edge. The 49ers are a better team. They're playing at home. But the Cowboys are a very good team too. And, you know, like sure their game scripts have been wonky, but like their game scripts have been wonky because they moved the ball at will down the field

against the Jets defense. They moved the ball at will against the Patriots defense. Granted, the Patriots lost some players in that game, but they've done their jobs, right? The problem with both of these teams is I don't think that they're good. The way that their offense runs is going to lend itself to success between the 20s, but struggles in the red zone against a good defense. And both of these teams have very good defenses. So unsurprisingly, what I like in this game is the under because not because I think all the defenses are just going to dominate these games, and it's going to be one of those punt, punt, punt games. That's not what I think. I think it's

going to be one of those games that only has, you know, like, seven or eight offensive drives each and a couple field goals on those drives, you know, really seven or eight offensive drives each. And a couple of field goals on those drives, you know, really brings the pace of the game down. And so that's what I think is going to happen. I think it's going to be, you know, a battle. Whoever's winning at the end will be able to grind out clock and, and really kill, you know, kill time and, and kind of end it. But I just don't see any explosive plays.

I mean, there may be a few, but like, I don't see either team kind of running up the score here. So I like the under, I like both offenses to have some success, but I think red zone performance is going to be difficult and hard to come by in this one. We've seen that the last few matchups with these teams have been kind of lower scoring. You want to draw too much off of it, but there's a lot of overlap from those rosters. Now, the first one is a Jimmy G team that was late in December. And I think that was like, both teams are under 20. Niners won that one. Same thing with the playoff game last year, both teams under 20. Niners took care of business there. So it makes sense. We've seen that. That's

kind of how these have played out. So I don't hate that at all. Like you said, it's really hard to parse through the party stuff. I think he's good. I also think that like, this is Shanahan one-on-one like, like they, Jimmy was always up top and EPA per play. Jimmy was always up top in completion of percentage over expectation.

That's a scheme stats and, you know, kudos to party for, you know, being able to take advantage of it. They've done very different usage of CMC than what we saw last year. And it's like, man, it is scary ceiling when you're actually giving Christian McCaffrey 24, 25 touches a game between, you know, 20 on the ground and four or five in the air. Like that's last year in this matchup, he had 10 carries in three receptions

where they gave Elijah Mitchell 14 carries. First of all, Elijah Mitchell is not even active. And Christian McCaffrey is getting all that work and has just been outstanding with it. So there is continued, I think, a little bit more ceiling on the Niners' offensive side than what we've seen. They seem to be, for the most part, pretty healthy in terms of what we should see here. Pretty big splits in terms of what we've seen with the Niners offensive side. Then what we've seen, they seem to be, for the most part, pretty healthy in terms of what we should see here. Pretty big splits in terms of what we've seen with the Niners receivers

with man and zone coverage. So there could be some like – it feels like an IU game in terms of what he's been able to do versus man. So it could be some big plays there for him. It could be something we're watching for probably on the prop show. So, yeah, it's going to be a great football game. I just hope we don't have a stinker of a primetime game like we've had to suffer through.

Hope it delivers. And again, we get these, you get a winner on the primetime circuit. Like, you know, the networks are hoping that this game kind of lives up to it. So, and again, you never know. Could be very impactful in terms of playoff seating later in the year for a week five game

to be very impactful. This one matters a lot. Yeah, potential home field on the playoffs. Yeah, big time. Yep. All right. Any other notes? Anything else you guys like on the board any other uh situations teams uh matchups you want to talk about connor yeah two that i like that i put in already uh atlanta minus one and a half i think that they have a pretty big advantage in the running game i know that we were just talking about uh the texans and you know like how excited we were about them. But I really think that this spot here, Texans pass even has

played really well. The run defense has not played all that well. Atlanta's running game is stellar when you force Desmond Ritter to be like, make plays. That's not been a good place to be in. Thankfully, I don't think he has to do it here. And then defensively, I think that they're able to slow down the Texans at least a little bit here and kind of control the clock. So I think that one's an interesting one there. And then Pat Saints under 40 and a half. I think it's a great look. Carr looks look terrible, like clearly not healthy.

Mac Jones look terrible. Both their defenses are above average, even though the Pats are banged up. I don't think that matters if Derek Carr can't throw. So like, you know, I think it's kind of like we we're probably gonna see a run heavy approach from both sides here. And I don't think we're going to see much of anything. So I think the under at 40 and a half is a good look there too. Pat's more than banged up. It is a absolute disaster.

And you have to celebrate JC Jackson coming back when JC Jackson has been an absolute dumpster fire for season and a half there with the chargers. But yeah, sucks that Christian Gonzalez looks like he's out for the year. Matthew Judon may be out for the year. I mean, it wasn't just a 38-3 L for the pass. It was like a devastating. The only redeeming quality that you have is your defense.

These are your two pillars. Now they're probably out for the year. So tank for Caleb. Get in the mix there, hopefully, New England, which they will not do. But yeah, it's going to be tough sledding for the Patriots. Yeah. It's crazy. The offense,

I mean, just like all the problems we talked about, like their receivers just like, aren't good enough to get open. Like the scheme just like is better, but just not good enough to get out, like to work and not running game. If you get that can't get going.

I mean, you're just totally tough. We offensive lines have been beat up too. On top of it. They haven't been able, they haven't put together the entirety or really even four designs, designated starters in the preseason of the offensive line in any game so it's just been a pretty much a disaster for new england we thought the first four games would be rough um they got a little bit of a reprieve because of the aaron rogers injury even that

didn't go well and you know one and three uh with again kind of light schedule for a little bit but then no it's the rest of the season is going to be absolutely rough. Clark, how about you? Anything else here in week five do you want to talk about? I agree with that look on the under. The Saints play a lot of man defense, and so the Patriots don't have the receivers to deal with that. Thursday night football,

there was a lot of money coming in on the Bears yesterday or today, bringing the number back down closer to where it opened at five and a half six um i like i like the commanders uh laying the five and a half um i'll even lay the six if i have to but you can still lay five and a half now thanks to that money coming in um the bears offenses had one good game and that was against the broncos defense that has been one terrible and two missing four starters in that game. They've had three terrible offensive games. So am I inclined to think that the Bears figured everything out or that this was, you know, one game where they took advantage of a gas defense with a bunch of injuries and even then didn't win the game?

I'm inclined to believe the latter. And the Washington offense is the prototypical, like, do well against bad defenses kind of offense, right? They want to run the ball. Sam Howell wants to sit in the pocket and pick your part downfield. That doesn't work when the defense can get home on Sam Howell and the defense can stop the run. The Bears can do neither. This is one-way action for me on the Commanders. I expect this to be an ugly game one-sided. Yeah, I think that five and a half is very appealing there too i'm with you they didn't figure anything out necessarily i think it's still an absolute disaster um yeah uh question the chat do you guys have a favorite oh i don't know oh there's some serious money on the bears like it flooded yeah but like who like who in their fucking right mind is like, Oh,

I'm going to confidently lay it on the bears. I mean, Jesus. Yeah. I mean, commanders coming off a late overtime game loss against a division rival on a short week. You know, bears, bears offense figured it out last week. I understand the angles like laying, laying six and a half with Sam Howell.

But that's why I like it. Here's the problem. They get no pressure. That's the bugaboo for Sam Howell is you're able to, like, collapse the pocket and get pressure on him. The Bears can't do that. So, yeah, I mean, I'm with you on the commander side. You guys have a favorite for offensive rookie of the year from Little Bull.

Yeah, I don't know what the market is now. CJ Stroud probably is a good look. He's been off to a really good start. Holding on very strong. I love what we saw from Anthony Richardson last week as a passer. If you rewatch that game, some off-platform stuff, some decisive,

accurate throwing from Anthony Richardson. Wheels up there. That's going to be very exciting. Yeah, I mean, Stroud is no reason to to poopoo anything he's done so far uh Bijan has been awesome and I think we'll continue to get more of a stranglehold on the work there and he'll continue to ascend to at that point Stroud Bijan you're betting at the top of the market which isn't something that I want to do in that market four weeks in but uh Connor any thoughts there and want to expand on the Strouds plus one 75 Bijon plus

four 50 Pucas after that, that's, I think a really bad bet with Cooper coupling back in the Richardson, I think is a good bet. He looked what we saw last week was more of what I thought we'd seen week one, which is like the whole experience, you know,

it'd be like, make some like absolutely mind melting throws and then just make like some terrible throws and like, it was all over the place. And then it was kind of fun. And like, that's what I expected. We'd see week one said we saw like, you know, laser focus perfectly, everything open. And, uh, yeah, it was, you know, lost me a lot of money. So a little bit salty about that, but, uh, it was plus six 50 at MGM plus 600 fan duel.

Yeah. I think, I think he's live. That's, that's not a bad look. Like, yeah, he has a couple of good games. Stroud play some tougher opponents.

I mean that, that narrative easily evens out there really quick. I mean, I think whichever of the Texans or Colts, assuming both quarterbacks stay healthy, whichever, whichever one of those has a better record, I think is the front runner just because of how important QB is.

And both of those guys are playing really well. But if either, either they get hurt or the team doesn't do well, then I think is the front runner just because of how important QB is. And both of those guys are playing really well. But if either, either they get hurt or the team doesn't do well, then I think it's, it's all be shown. Yeah. The Bijon stuff's going to probably that drum beats going to get louder. I think here is he continues to take a little bit more workload away from

Algier and is awesome with it. Continues to have like a highlights, like draw dropping run cut move every week. You're just like, man, he's, he is, he is different.

So, all right guys, good stuff as always. We appreciate everyone hanging out with us again. four, four, four, four,

four.com slash plans is where you want to get the betting sub. Take advantage of the promo code YouTube to get 25% off of the already discounted price. Come hang out with us on Friday, again, 2 p.m. Eastern to get the prop job show with Connor, myself and high slop.

It's really where you want to be. So for Connor Clark, right. We'll see you on Friday. Thanks everybody. Outro Music