Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 6 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 6! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 6 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow Mike on Twitter 👉🏼    / randlerant Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft king sportsbook ryan noonan joins here as always by connor allen to talk week six nfl news notes futures games what's going on buddy yeah i'm coming off of my best public week of betting ever uh Absolutely destroyed it. 10 and one. 10 unders, one over. The over one, the only under that I lost that week was on a Daniel Jones under who apparently played awesome without Malik Neighbors. Did not have that in my cards. But it was, I mean, again, 10 and one week. I hope no one gets accustomed to that because my goal this week is just to grind out a little

bit of profit and be happy. But it was great. It felt – I don't feel bad bragging about it because, again, that's once in five years now since I've been publicly keeping track of my records and posting plays. So I feel good about it. Absolutely sick. Leaning into – calling it a bid is not fair because it's definitely, I think,

something you found to be an edge, right? Like it became like – especially bad quarterback unders in particular is the Daniel Jones play, the one that lost. But, you know, leaning into the thought that there's just so many more outs and unders, it's how your brain works. Like our community is so like fired up and confused when Connor posted over that they're like, damn, Connor must love this play because no one is expecting him to have an under when he is like, you know, notifies the group that a play is coming.

And of course the one was Amari Cooper who comfortably went over, should have absolutely cruised to all the ladders of the alts, but it looked like those two had been playing catch for the first time ever, but excited to get here to week six. Our guest this week is an old friend uh not by age but in terms of uh this gentleman used to graze our presence uh at four for four has now moved on and is absolutely crushing it he is the chief content officer over at ftn it is our friend at randall rant on twitter mike randall welcome i am honored to be back with you guys. The legends themselves, we are here.

It's great to be back, boys. Yes, I'm already researching college basketball. I mean, is there a conference with less than 35 teams this year? But either way, let's cut up for NFL. Things are going well. Not as well as Connor, but they're going pretty well over here at FTN. So we're doing okay. How are my UNH Wildcats going to be this year?

We got a shot at all to have a pulse there? You're always around. You always do well, Ryan. The question is, can you get over the hump and get to the final four? That's the key. But I mean, you join a new conference. Why not take a shot at it? You know, but no, you'll be in the mix.

You always are. Oh, man. Yeah. Excited to have Randall back. And again, again, everything he's doing at FTN, just since Randall stepped in to the building, the place has extended, not by accident. So we're excited to see good things happening to Mike and the team over there. Continued success.

Check that out. I want to remind folks that this is two episodes of Move Line each week. This is our more game previews, sides, totals. We're going to get into some other stuff around the league. Friday afternoons, 3 p.m. Eastern is prop drop. So if you want some of the plays, all the official things that we have, John Hyslop, myself, Connor, come in. Some of

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buys continue this week. London continues this week. We have Jacksonville, Chicago there. But I want to take a look back a little bit. Michael, start with you here too. We often have, you know, we spend so much time doing content in the offseason, kind of lock into some preseason takes. Some things go well. Some things don't go so well. So we're going to take a temperature now that we were a couple weeks in here,

get a sense of, you know, is there a preseason take that you had? Then knowing what we now know after five weeks, then maybe you'd like to walk back a little bit. Yeah, I bought into the last to first in the division, which I know Connor always talks about. That's gone well in a couple instances, but one incident hasn't gone well is the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South at plus 1100 on DraftKings.

Guys, I thought Canales would fix Bryce Young. I did get a little excited about Andy Dalton, but they lost Brown, the defensive tackle for the run stopping for the year. So I don't think that one's going to make it to the window. We'll call that one a loss. I think it's wide open and Derek Carr now hurt. Maybe Spencer Rattler starting. I get it. Tampa Bay's been up and down, but that was right church, wrong pew for me. So Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South. A couple of them worked. That one didn't. I have to eat a humble pie there.

You know, maybe they make a run late. I don't know, but it just seems like maybe I was a year too early, fellas, on the Panthers and the NFC South. A year too early, Mike. I don't think it's happening either. Spoiler alert, they're coming up in another part of the NFC. You're too early, Mike. I don't think, I don't think it's happening either. Spoiler alert. They're coming up in another part of the show here for me, but Connor,

we touched base on this a couple of weeks ago. I forget which guest it was, but circling back. Is there something now a couple of weeks further along that you, you were locked in on maybe preseason that you want to walk back? Yeah, we might've, I think we did touch on it in,

you know, a couple of weeks ago with the commanders. I mean, I was pretty anti-Commanders. I thought that they were going to be bad offensively and defensively. They're still not good defensively, but they are awesome offensively, and that was a big mistake. And Jayden Daniels is playing well.

The tandem running back room between Brian Robinson and Austin Eckler, maybe even a little Jeremy McNichols is playing pretty well as well. Terry McLaurin's proven to be that deep threat. And plus a little bit more. So like in Zacher, it's again, just catching the ball, falling down,

like doing what he does best. So I think that's like this combination of the guys that they have. It's working really well. I'm very interested to see them play against like some tough defenses because they, again, they have been playing. It's a lot of bad defenses,

but like they played pretty well against the Browns they played they get the ravens this week who i mean we'll talk about that in a little bit but i don't know if they don't really play that many good defenses so like i don't think that that analysis even matters so like that's kind of the the pushback is like i just don't think that that's going to happen this year i think they might just keep playing awesome yeah they've been awesome schedules not i mean kind of middle of the pack in terms of strength of schedule but he said not a ton of like daunting defenses uh that are kind of coming down so just maybe continue to be an over team with maybe a little bit more ceiling than we thought uh for me is when you touched

on the first time we talked about this that i think makes a ton of sense i mean we were both kind of lockstep and thinking that there might be a little bit more upside to this Denver offense than we were thinking. But the problem was going to be the defense. Turns out that is completely wrong. A double airball. Basically, the defense has been fantastic. The offense is frighteningly limited at times and does not seem to be changing for the good at any point. So, yeah, and the defense, I feel like some of it's pretty stable.

Like defense week to week, season to season is obviously a little bit more variable than offensive performance, but Timers kind of rolling on all cylinders defensively. So does not have the upside offensively that we thought. Bengals to win the division, kind of another competitor for me. I'm not ready to take a full L on that yet, partially because the offense is cooking like peak burrow Super Bowl run offense. Just the defense is like Carolina Panthers bad. So that's kind of a problem. And one in four makes things a little bit harder. How about the other side? I'll get us started too as a preseason take

that you are going to take our flowers here a little bit. We just took a lump, something that you had in the preseason that's trending pretty well so far. Obviously, a lot to play itself out. I didn't cash my 15-1 Jags to start the season 0-5, which is frustrating. Just kind of a – excuse my language – kick in the dick. That's kind of what week five was for me for the entirety of the week. For the most part, that was kind of the icing on the cake. Felt like directionally correct. I still think the Jags are going to be a bad football team so even though that bet didn't

cash i still feel pretty good about the jags being an underperformer in what people thought was maybe a wide open division connor what's something that you kind of nailed in the preseason so far yeah i also didn't cash my doug peterson first coach to be fired because and i think if they would have lost i think peterson's probably gone yeah he doesn't go on the plane so that that kind of stinks. And that was like, again, 15 to one, 12 to one, I think somewhere in that range. A preseason take that I've had that's going well so far.

I mean, the Raiders are dumpster fire. Just lost Christian Wilkins today. Devante Adams has a, you know, ghost hamstring injury randomly last few weeks. And it's just basically, it's inevitable that he's going to be traded at this point. Max Crosby's dinged up. They benched their starting quarterback and they're moving on to AOC. So like, I mean, it's everything that we talked about in the preseason that could have happened

is happening right now. So, I mean, they just lost by 20 to Denver. Like, I mean, I think Denver's fine, but you shouldn't be losing by 20 to Denver. So I don't know if this, I mean, we, we talked about with Chernoff last week, like we played a little bit of a Raiders worst record at like, I think it was like 22 or 23 to one. I don't know. I don't like that market again, but I mean, it might be worth hitting again at anything like up to like six to one, seven to one, because the wheels here look like they're falling off.

Yeah, no, it's a good call for sure. I thought that they would have a little bit more fight because of the defense, because the defensive line would be a little feisty. They lost Malcolm Koontz early that hurt that. And now you lose, you know, dinged up Crosby, dinged up Christian Wilkins. That the only strength that I thought you had not a strength turns out to, uh, Mike, what did you nail so far? Well, not to go against Connor, but I liked Washington. I got them at plus 800 to win the NFC East. I also got them at plus 260 to make the playoffs on DraftKings. Rationale was, we've seen this before. If you go back in time,

you had Washington at plus 2200 in 2020 to win the division. They won it at seven and nine. You've seen it even earlier than that. You go back to 2012 with Robert Griffin's first year, commanders plus 1000 at 10 and six. And I thought that Jaden Daniels is going to be someone that they're going to have to figure out. And you guys know, I have a love for Brian Robinson. So basically all I needed was Dan Quinn to be able to make this defense decent and they've been okay. The numbers per DVO at FTN are not good, but I thought they could be competitive. The Eagles defense struggled last year. Vic Fangio's second year is always better than the first,

so there's some time there. You know you're not going to have a repeat because the NFC has a repeat champion in basically 20 years, and the Giants forget it. So I took a flyer on them. I thought Daniels could be special. They do have McLaurin. I kind of thought they'd get another wide receiver,

so I got lucky, and of course Parsons, Lawrence out. That helps as well. It's still still early but i like the plus 260 and when the division we still have a long shot so commanders dan quinn being decent and no one figuring out jayden daniels yet this week i'm not so sure but so far so good guys yeah we'll see about this week too i mean it's it's hard not to be encouraged uh with everything that he has going on it's really fun to watch for sure um back to you mike how about a future that's currently on the board before we jump into the week six games take it anywhere you want the win totals we have new super bowls futures anywhere you want to go yeah this again going to be against you guys a

little bit but maybe i'm just sticking to my priors here i like the Jags to make the playoffs at plus three 50. I think they've played better than we've really seen. They should have beat Miami. If Travis ETN doesn't fumble on that first game on the two, they go up 24 seven. They win that game. Things seem a lot better than they were stumbled against the Browns. Couldn't get in the red zone, but you're going to London now for two consecutive games. They can easily win both of those games. Evan Ingram's coming back. Brian Thomas has started to explode and really stretch the field. Trevor Lawrence has been abysmal, but their run defense has been okay per DVOA, and they were slaughtered injury-wise in the secondary against the Bills. Lost a player in the first quarter as well, so I think it's a buy low situation. Are they going

to win the division? No. Could they sneak in the playoffs and make a run in an NFL where everyone's hoping to be nine and eight? Maybe. So that's one that I've invested in plus 350 jazz to make the playoffs. I know it sounds a little nuts, but all these injuries have occurred and the Jags are suddenly getting healthier. I think Peterson's a decent coach. He may have lost the locker room and he may not be long for the team, but I like that in that division. I think the Colts stink. I don't buy the Titans. Yes, the Texans are good, but they've escaped a little bit. They didn't look great against the bears at home on that Sunday night game. So I'm taking the Jags at plus three 50, call me crazy, but that's my future bet that I'm into right now.

Well, I mean, to be fair, no one really wants to back half of that that playoff spots right so it's just a it is you know kind of wide open and i think their best case scenario is just a a very good commanders very good arizona cardinals where they're just becoming over team because i'm not buying i don't think part of my handicap coming in mike was that i didn't think they had the dogs to execute ryan nsen's system. He doesn't he hasn't shown to be a coach that alters what he does. This is kind of what he wants to do. And they've suffered cluster injuries in the back half that make it harder for them to execute. So they are really bad against the past. And it's been I don't think it's anything that's going to be slowing down anytime soon.

Yeah, I think there's an offensive upside for sure. So maybe they become an over team to watch here. Connor, what do you think here? What's a future on the board that you like to get in? Yeah, I focused on one market and I was looking at the MVP market here. I think there's three really interesting ones that, I mean, we're only five weeks in, like, I feel like there's a lot of like overreaction here. Jordan Love is 45 to one. Jalen Hurts is 30 to one and Gino's 90 to one. Like I know Gino Smith and the Seahawks has lost to the giants, but like, again,

we're five weeks in they're passing the ball at the highest rate over expectation. And Gino largely is playing awesome. Like their defense is beat up right now. If for some reason they go on a long stretch of winning, maybe they win this Thursday, they win Thursday. Like,

you know, they beat the Niners. Like they win the division. Gino squarely and play at 90 to one Jordan love 45 to one. Again, he was injured. Like, you know, they beat the Niners. Like, they win the division. Geno Squarely in play at 90-1. Jordan Love, 45-1. Again, he was injured. Like, you know, no one's going to remember that he was injured and didn't really play all that well in his first game or two back if he rolls off, like, seven or eight wins at the end of the season

and they win the division. And then same with Jalen Hurts. Like, the Eagles are, what, 2-2, I think, at this point? Like, again, if they win the division, like, he's 30-1. He was, like, a 12-1, 13-1, like, at this point, like again, if they win the division, like he's 30 to one, he was like a 12 to one, 13 to one, like close this, this season. So I thought that all of those were like, we're buying low on, you know, two quarterbacks that were like squarely in the mix as like fringe contenders heading into the season. And then Gino, who like, I think we should just adjust our priors where like the Seahawks office is passing an unreal amount. And if for some reason

they win a lot of games, uh, I mean, again is too short so i just played a couple little sprinkle on each again not even like i mean we're talking like 0.1 to 0.05 units if you're tracking it like that um but you know i think it's some some mispriced odds there i like all those those are good callouts it's such a weird market we've touched on you know mvp coach of the year some of the stuff and it's just like let's talk about it in november right becomes such a reactionary week to week right offensive player of the Year, some of the stuff. Let's talk about it in November. Become such a reactionary week-to-week offensive player of the year. All those become just prisoner of the moment in the way that things kind of shake themselves out. I have a significantly less fun play, but one that I really like is

Panthers under 4.5 wins. It's plus 100 on the under. I struggle to find where those wins are coming from um they talked about earlier i mean the worst point differential in the league is nearly twice as high as anyone else defense kind of borderline non-competitive at this point with derrick brown and shack thompson out their best two defenders their other best defender last year uh brian burns already gone given up 33 points per game this season, they have not played elite offenses that would make you be like,

oh yeah, I know they've just run into a bunch of buzz saws. No, it's been bad. Collectively as a team, they have generated 21 quarterback pressures. There are 14 individual players that have 21 or more individual quarterback pressures. They have a pulse with Andy Dalton, the quarterback. Again, maybe that becomes a spot where they become an overteam we need to look at. But look at the schedule based off of current opponent win percentage, which is obviously a flawed way to look at it.

But as you go through it, it's what we have to deal with right now. Third hardest schedule still to come in the league. Saints, Giants, Broncos, Cardinals are their best chances to get wins. They're going to be underdogs by, I think, three or more in all those games. So, yeah, I think that this is just a bad football team. And even with Andy Dell in the quarterback under 10, I mean, sorry, under 4.5 at plus 100, I think is a pretty good look on the poor Panthers.

I'm sorry. It's bad yeah the uh the injuries to the defensive line i mean you mentioned like unreal like it's like this panthers d line is like i don't even know who are they trotting out at this point like i mean clowny is probably out this week too it's like the only guy that's doing anything up front for them uh ashaun robertson more of a run stop guy they don't really have a pass rush at all it's kind of uh when i was trying to lay out that, it's really hard to be competitive defensively

when you have injuries. I mean, they spend money on Jordan Fuller in free agency. He's on the IR. Another guy is just injured. They just keep losing everybody. Josie Jewell, probably not practicing, maybe not playing again this week. It's just a bad situation for them. Not a good one.

Plus 100, under 4.5. Across the a, not a good one. Yeah. So plus 100 under four and a half across the board. Every book has that. So go get it. All right, guys, let's jump into some week six games. I counted 10 home dogs on the board this week, which is pretty interesting considering the nature of how dogs have been doing in general this year, especially like when you get up to you know, six point dogs, Those things have been barking pretty loud, so I'm interested to see what your guys' thoughts are here. We'll start with

the one we've kind of been dancing around. Some commanders talk early. Commanders are on the road in Baltimore. I believe we are six and a half across the board. Total 51 and a half. This has jumped a little bit through the look at markets. This was 49, 49 and a half. We've jumped through a was uh like 49 49 and a half we've jumped

through a key number now 51 and a half which is interesting it's a spot for both offenses to cook connor i think the browns made the commanders look at least defensively competent last week i think that says more about the browns than it does the commanders here um yeah what are your thoughts here in this one yeah this game is interesting. We've been talking about it a little bit in our slack here with how we want to handle it. Um, but this, so this Raven secondary, like hasn't really played all that well, 25th and drop back EPA, but they're playing like elite run defense first and rushing success rate like first and like they're allowing like two yards of carry or something like that

to running backs right now. It's like crazy, crazy low number. Uh, and so this is going to be a lot of pressure on Jaden Daniels in this passing game that I think It's like crazy, crazy low number. And so this is going to be a lot of pressure on Jaden Daniels in this passing game. I think really just like move, move it here. But I think that they can with how they've played and like they're, you know, upside here. Like if Jaden Daniels can push this passing game, like this is the way that they win is like they get out in front and make the Ravens pass the ball a little bit more than they'd like to. That's the path of the commanders keeping this game close and winning. Now the downside and the reverse here. And what I worry

about is commanders rank 27th, the Russian success rate 24th and drop back success rate. Like their defense hasn't had a whole lot of success stopping me people outside of Deshaun Watson. Um, and especially with Derek Henry, especially with how the Ravens can go big and just like dominate, uh, in the running game. Like I have a really hard time seeing the commander stop that. And so like in most scenarios, I mean, the, the Ravens and Derek Henry probably rushing for 150, 200 yards in total here and probably winning this game pretty easy. But I do worry because like, I've been, I've been against the commanders here, you know, opposite of Mike, I've been fading the commanders here and it's just been, you know, not been profitable so far. So I'm a little bit

concerned about doing that against with the secondary that like, I don't, I don't think the Raven secondary is good. Like I don't want to be having my, my eggs in those baskets there. So yeah, Mike, we're on this one. It's going to be, I think an interesting one. Uh, probably, I think we all agree that probably the toughest task so far for the commanders. We have a slight edge 3% on the Ravens minus six and a half. And that makes me nervous for all the reasons you just said about six point favorites. So you want to tease it down. That's fine. I do like the Ravens to win the game.

We have no advantage on the FTM model on the edge for the total. But I do think that this game, the Ravens are going to do what I thought the Browns were doing. A lot of sharps on the Browns last week for the reasons that Connor just said, that Washington is now going to face a defense that's going to bring more pressure than they face with Arizona. Some of the other teams, I think the Ravens are going to do that here. I'm tethering this to some props as well. One of our biggest edges we have in the FTM model is Jaden Daniels under his rushing total, which is about 51 and a half. We project him with a 13%

edge at about 37.7 yards. That makes sense to me, guys, because the Ravens certainly know how to practice against a rushing quarterback, and they're going to come up with some things and force Daniels to throw. He's been magical. He's been tremendous. And I like this Washington team. I just don't like this spot. And maybe I was a week early with the Browns last week.

I like the Ravens. The edge is slight here. I do like tethering it to the props, Daniels under, things like that. So I'm going to go with the ravens not a huge edge of the model but i do think they get the job done here against washington yeah i think props are definitely an interesting way to think about how there's some easy ways to correlate things that if they you know if you're right you're going to kind of you know three four x you know the way that you kind of handicap this game the longest explosives i

think make a ton of sense. I've seen a massive amount of explosive passes against this Ravens secondary this season. And then you have this combination of Derek Henry averaging the second highest yards before contact in the league and the commanders giving up the second highest yards before contact in the league, Henry downhill, tough spot for the commanders. Again, even if they sell out, we've seen kind of last week,

even where the Bengals kind of sold out a little bit more to try to stop the run, limited him until he got one. It only takes one to hit one of those longest bets. He hit it late, but we saw Lamar being a little bit more dynamic in the passing game too. And, you know, I think they have that in a little bit more, a few more outs in the passing game this year than years past.

Yeah. And rushing DVOOA we have Minnesota first Kansas City second and Baltimore third in terms of rush defense DVOA and Aaron Schatz said this morning that historically the Ravens are like the fifth best three and two team in DVOA history so maybe a little bit of a buy low spot on the Ravens here yeah all right next we have an interesting one the Cardinals are on the Ravens here. Yeah. All right. Next we have an interesting one. The Cardinals are on the road in green Bay. This is held five, five and a half to the look heads, which I think tells us a little bit about how the market feels about what the Cardinals did last week on the road in San Francisco. Total has dipped down a little bit though. So it's 49 and a half and is down now to 47 and a half, 48 in some spots. This is back-to-back road games for the Cardinals here.

Mike, what are your thoughts on Cardinals Packers? We have 11.3% edge, which are hitting at 68% this year when it's 10% or higher in the model on the over 47 and a half at bet 365. Personally, we have no edge on the side. I'm a big Packers and lay the points in this matchup. I've believed in the Packers since the beginning of the year. I saw them and the Lions go in the NFC Championship game. Connor talked about it. You mentioned it, Ryan. I think this is the spot where the Packers start to click. Romeo Dubbs should be back.

Wicks, Jaden Reed, Tucker Kraft has become a top three tight end. What world are we living in? Josh Jacobs is still healthy. Defense played well. And that game last week, it's on the road against the Rams. Never easy against Sean McVay. But if Jordan Love doesn't throw that ball into the hands of the Rams secondary on the five-yard line, they win that game pretty comfortably.

So they're playing well. Cardinals with a big comeback win. That's fantastic. Second game on the road. I am going with the Packers laying the points here at FTN. Our edge is on the over 47.5. And to Connor's point, which was great before, Jordan Love, MVP. He hangs 40 points and four touchdowns this week.

You'll see how those odds plummet. I think that could happen here. I'm taking the Packers and laying the points. That's hot. I like it. I wrote this in the look-aheads, Connor. I saw it at five. Kind of felt like a spot where the market's kind of putting their hands up

and not really sure what to do. I felt like anything below six was a play for the Packers. I still kind of feel that way. I mean, I just feel like the Niners kind of play with their food a little bit. Again, I was chasing that pretty prop. I watched a lot of that game intensely in the second half. I don't feel like the Cardinals went out and, like, took that game. It was the Niners drove down, dominated, literally ran, like,

eight out of nine plays. Very frustrating when you need a quarterback to throw the football but the last play resulted in a fumble inside the 10 from Jordan Mason they took it and scored and you had a kind of a fluke interception the end of the game wasn't really the Cardinals doing a ton it was more so the Niners just kind of not putting their foot on their necks uh what do you think here under six yeah I mean the Cardinals just haven't really been all that impressive in in my opinion, especially defensively. Dead last and drop back success rate, 28th against the run.

I mean, this total touched 50. Now we're down to 47 and a half. Like, I'm interested in the over here just because of not only the Cardinals defense been bad, their offense has been like wildly inconsistent. They had an amazing game against the Rams, but just 13 and 14 points against the Lions and Commanders, who you would anticipate was like great matchup for Kyler against the second second but just 13 and 14 points against the lines of commanders who you would anticipate was like great matchup for Kyler against the second secondaries that haven't really been all that impressive.

And he just hasn't been able to pull through. And like you mentioned, like, yeah, they scored 24 points against the, against the Niners, but like, it was kind of like fluky.

It wasn't really, it didn't really make sense. So, I mean, I, I think I have a tough time at this point, like not backing the Packers here in the over, but that my only issue would be like the Packers defense has been that good

30th and drop back success rate 23rd rushing success rate. So like, but again, it's been like multiple of these matches with Kyler. You're like, Oh, well he should have success or like, Oh,

they should have a ton of success offensively. And this really hasn't come to fruition yet. So I would definitely lean Packers in the over as well. But I'm interested to see how it goes. Maybe, I mean, maybe this total keeps moving down here. Yeah.

Or Packers team total could be an angle to, you know, if the Cardinals show a pulse or whatnot. So yeah, that's again, five across the board, a fan duel, a five and a half minus one of six, but everyone else, you know, minus one, 10 to five. It feels like a, it feels like a good side. Next lines are on the road in Dallas against the Cowboys. Lions coming off of a buy kind of a shorter week, I guess, a Sunday night game. Feels like a good side. Next, Lions are on the road in Dallas against the Cowboys.

Lions coming off of a bye. Kind of a shorter week, I guess, the Sunday night game. We go that, you know, basically a Monday morning game, the way that things kind of rolled out with the Cowboys in Pittsburgh last week. Feels a little bit in the sense that, like, again, the total's clipped out to 52, 52 and a half. Feels like a lot of points. This feels similar to last week with that bangles ravens game where to oversimplify the handicap i just don't see a scenario where dallas can stop

this detroit running game um could be oversimplifying connor what do you think about lions cowboys yeah it's like no i i totally agree because it's like another massively run-heavy approach from lions we saw them in week three just put up a stinker against the Bucs. Like, I mean, Jared Goff threw like a back-breaking pick. Like his total stats looked good, but his actual performance was not good. And then from there, they're like, all right, we got to get back to our roots. They ran the ball 39 times for 200 yards against the Cardinals. And then 26 runs to 18 passes against Seattle.

They just scored 40 points on like 50 plays. So like they would have ran it even more to be honest. I think if, if they were, if they had the opportunity now they draw Dallas bottom five, but rushing success rate dead last and run the EPA. Uh, I mean, meanwhile, their past is past events is pretty good. Um, in terms of success rate and they've been getting some pressure. So like, I think that's like, I think they want to avoid that. I would see. I foresee David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs both having a lot of success here on the ground because it matches just like all the boxes are being checked here.

We know that Ben Johnson will skew his game plan run heavy, and I think the Lions know that they don't want to have Jared Goff carrying the game here in a spot where you could see a ton of pressure and make more mistakes. So I definitely foresee that. I guess it's just a matter of like, how much can the Dallas side, like, you know, I guess put up and push them because again, I don't think the line secondary is all that good. And Dallas is offense, you know, hasn't hit their ceiling, but they've passed a ton. They've dropped back to like a ton of times. And like, that's the key to success here

as well. So I could see this game going a variety of different ways, but I pretty confident the lines are going to try and run the ball early and often. Yeah. I probably have some success doing so Mike. I mean, I think those Dallas pressure rates are going to start to come down where you're dealing without probably again,

without Micah Parsons, the Marcus Lawrence outs, you know, they want to throw in Marshawn Nealon, their rookie to get things going. Kid lasts a play and then ends up on IR. So kind of cluster injuries at defensive end there for the Cowboys. Literally rolling out dudes that I've never heard of at defensive end,

which is kind of a tough scene. What do you think about Lions-Cowboys? This game is as uncomfortable as me after spicy wings at Buffalo Wild Wings in the restroom the next day, okay? The only game I had a good week last week, but the one that didn't make sense to me was the Cowboys and the Steelers. I thought for sure Tomlin after a loss, prime time at home, no Parsons, no Lawrence, all of that. And then all of a sudden, if it wasn't for the three turnovers, Cowboys would have won that game fairly easily, I think. So our model here, which I will trust at

FTN, nine percentage to the Cowboys plus three on the side. I will agree with you guys, it does not feel good. But you know Dak with a backdoor cover, as he did against Baltimore, all those things, weird things happen. Their running game needs to be better. But I just saw Seattle with Ken Walker flipping over this Lions rushing attack. And then they couldn't even move the ball

against the Giants. Now the offensive coordinator said they didn't run it enough, but they got stopped a lot when they tried to run. So maybe the Cowboys are tough at home. Lions coming off a bye, a little sleepy. I agree. It doesn't feel great. We have no edge on the total, but we do have a 9% edge on plus three here, minus 105 at

bed, 365 on the Cowboys. But I agree. It doesn't feel great to me. Yeah. You could sell me on like over if you're a leaning Cowboys, but I get it. Three on the road team. It's, you know,

three and two and, you know, rolls out of bed and goes 12 and five every year in the regular season. I understand why it probably you're going to catch a little bit of that too, for sure. And the model, but yeah, it's kind of been down on Dallas all season.

Not sure. I want to lay the three, but some sort of iteration of, you know, lie. I just think the lions score. Cause I don't think it's going to be pressured. So team total on the lions, even though it's probably going to be, you know, climbing up

there quite a bit. Last, the Monday nighter. Bills are on the road in New York against the Jets. Feels like a primetime game every season. We have the Bills, a short two, two and a half point favorite here on the road against the Jets. Total pretty low, 41, 40 and a half, even here on the road against the jets uh total pretty low 41 40 and a half even in some spots which is interesting 41 on the lower end is kind of a

key number in terms of totals here mike um what do we do i mean we have josh allen coming off of like wyoming josh allen against the texans nine for 30 uh nothing but like just massive chucks down the field to mac hollins like the prairie yards to mac hollins in that game was insane connor had an under that was like sweaty i don't know if you're watching that game but mac hollins is getting fed down deep down the field over and over five five targets and two receptions in the first like quarter yeah and then did not have another single catch the rest of the game. I mean, that was, I mean, just,

it was representative of my week. That was awesome. It was just great. Keon Coleman, I think had one catch for 49 yards. No one had more than two receptions for the team. Again, nine of 30 for,

for Josh and just obviously a bizarre end of that game. And you got the jets who were absolutely blitzed. That game felt over after the first quarter. Yes, they fought back and made it a little bit more interesting. Do they get a little bit of a post-firing bump here, Mike, with obviously everything that's been going on in New York here in the last 24 hours or so?

Yeah, that's narrative street, but I'll battle that with our four percentage here on the Jets plus two and a half as a home underdog. I'll also battle Josh Allen's never lost three games in a row, I think, or something like that in the NFL. I'll battle that with third straight road game here for the bills. And these were physical games at Baltimore, at Houston, now at the jets, they lost last year to Zach Wilson. We saw that. And guys, I thought the bills were in a very

sell high spot after the first three games, they play Arizona, enough said. Miami, who was a disaster at that point. And then they torched the Jaguars, who had secondary issues, and the game got away from them. I think you're seeing a regression with Josh Allen. I think this is what the coaches know, which is why they're trying to emphasize the run this year. And when James Cook turned into Walter Payton against the Dolphins, everyone thought it was fine. I think the Jets will be able, hopefully, to stop the run and be a little better. They're a home team. They always get a bump with the changeover. They need this game. I will take the home underdog here in the Jets against the Bills, third straight row game. I think we were overvaluing the Bills. I get it. It's not a sleepy spot because they've lost these

games. They need this win badly, but I'm going to take the Jets here. I got about a four percentage here at FTN on the plus two and a half. It gets the plus two plus three. I'll grab it for sure. Yeah. Uh, that's interesting. If you do think that you have a lean that way, they are an interesting Wong spot here, Connor, you can tease them through the three through the seven, if you like at home on a Monday night, what are your thoughts on Bill's jets? Yeah, I guess that that would make a lot of sense. I just, I have a really tough time seeing how either team is like a ton of offices success here and that's reflected in the total i mean they've both been really really disappointing the bills i expect to employ like a run-heavy approach we have james cook popping up in the injury report today is recording didn't practice today um i don't know maybe we see more

ray davis this jets run defense has not been good but their past defense has been awesome and we've looked at this bill's offense here. They have just no ability to separate. Like their receivers have just like no ability to get open, especially on the outside. Like I don't think Keon Coleman's catching a ball this week. I mean, against like the outside receivers. So, you know, again, you can already write that up

that I'm going to be betting is under at basically any number this week. And, but like in reality, like they have to attack the middle of the field here. And Josh Allen has had success against the jets in the past, but that's because he is like, he's like hit, you know, uh, vertical routes to Shakir over the middle. He's hit guys. And then like, you know, again, in the middle of the field and get open donkey, Kate isn't cutting it right now. Shakir is banged up. Curtis Samuel is already injured again and didn't play well last week. So like they just don't have anyone who can get open. So they're going to be relying on the run the entire time.

That's not something that I want to bank on. And the other side, the Jets, I still think they're going to figure out offensively, but their running game has been, I mean, pathetic. Like literally Brees Hall has played horrible. Braylon Allen played a little bit better, but like the offensive line isn't drawing a ton of holes here. And I don't know if they match up as well as the Ravens did against Buffalo, who basically just trampled them on the ground here.

So for me, I guess, yeah, it's like if I had to pick a side, it's probably the Jets because I'm just getting points here at home. But I don't really feel good about it either way just because I don't really see a ton of edges here on either side. Opposing offenses are skewing massively run heavy against both of these teams. Both of these teams are facing a negative six and a half percent pass rate over expectation. So it's just kind of where you get a 40 and a half, 41 total. Just a lot of rushing attempts.

Interesting to note note possible revenge game ty johnson was playing ahead of ray davis last week so maybe ty johnson is the next man up if it ends up being james cook which could be interesting and i don't know i've always been kind of like why doesn't ty johnson get a shot in this league i think like his raz score i think was pretty high like he's like a fairly good athlete who every time he gets a taste of the ball he ends up being pretty good so could be a fairly good athlete who, every time he gets a taste of the ball, he ends up being pretty good. So it could be a spot for Ty Johnson over his corner.

I don't know if I can possibly find a way. You probably want to take Ray Davis under 19.5, but I'm probably going to take some Ty Johnson looks. But yeah, I think rushing is kind of the way to go for both these clubs. So I don't really believe in any of them. Probably a stay away for me. If it crawls out maybe to 41. a half maybe a little bit of like monday night juice people start to believe in this offense bouncing back on either side uh maybe

an under is a nice little look so uh mike anything else on the board that jumps out to you before we uh before we wrap anything else you want to highlight anywhere else on the board yeah i'll give you one side and then i'll throw one prop in to get you guys going for the weekend the the first one here is tennessee we have our biggest edge on the board for a side is tennessee getting i think it's was it one i think right now uh it's actually yeah a bunch of spots are different so caesars is a pick them but like fanduel is minus one and a half still so yeah it's yeah it's almost almost a 10 edge you have tennessee off a buy. They still have a trio of dangerous receivers running back, did some nice things against Miami. And I'm just not buying the calls. I didn't buy Anthony Richardson. I understand that everyone overreacts when someone's an athlete, the fact that he didn't

have that many starts, no one cared. Usain Bolt ends up getting drafted. Someone's going to pick him first in fantasy because they run. The problem is the offense is not functioning with him there. So really Joe Flacco should start, but no, he has to start Richardson. Now it's a Titans defensive front. That's pretty good against the run. So they're going to have to do some things with the arm. I don't know if Jonathan Taylor's going to play, but I'll take the Titans here to bounce back off that, that a bi-week. And I think they're going to play well. And as an underdog, I love it as a money line play. And the one prop I'll throw to you guys, let's not forget about Juwan Jennings. Juwan Jennings,

who was the incredible performance he had a couple of weeks ago. Now Iook is back. Debo's there. Everyone thinks that he's not going to catch a pass. He still had four targets last week, over 28 and a half receiving yards. Seattle, 26 against wide receiver threes. We project him for 49.3 receiving yards here. So's go back to juwan jennings we haven't forgot about you juwan as a prop if you're looking at one here going into the week six i will be the last man uh on anthony richard island um i will i may i will go down with the ship uh i still think we haven't had enough of it has not been pretty this year so i am not going to pretend that it's been good still and part of of the – this is what the Anthony Richson people will tell you.

The sample is still so small, and I'm just a believer in Shane Steichen. So it has not been pretty, but especially when they start to show a pulse with Joe Flacco instead of Anthony Richson, not great. Connor, what's catching your eye on the board here? Yeah, a couple different spots. I thought were interesting. Broncos plus three.

I thought it was kind of notable at home against the Chargers team. Like the Broncos even playing awesome. The Chargers defense has played pretty well. But again, it's like a low scoring game. You're catching three at home. I think this is like more of a coin flip opportunity and what's going to be probably a pretty ugly game. And then Saints plus three and a half at home as well. Like I know they've been playing

terrible, but like, and I just, I don't think that this should be a three and a half point spread here at home by the Bucs here. Again, the Bucs like probably have, have the right to, you know, their ability to kind of like push the ball here against, against the Saints defense. But on the other side, I think that the Saints offense should have plenty of success. I'm not sure the Bucs have enough firepower up front to really do what we've seen the Eagles and what we've seen the Chiefs do to the Saints offense. Like, you know, I mean, we saw, yeah, like we've seen that the Saints offensive line can matter, obviously in a bad way, but also like they can get around it if they're not

facing the right matchup here. So I think that's another one. And then I'll go against Mike a little bit. I think the Bears win and win big against the Jags this week. I'm a, I'm big on not as I think the Jacksonville has success, some success offensively. I'm not big on this Jags secondary.

I think Caleb Williams is another good game and just keeps parlaying his terrible. We don't talk about bad opponents. Caleb Williams played against like the worst defenses, secondaries in the league so far and gets another, I think pretty bad one here uh in a sense so gets that and then like three more coming up so i want to build a rookie's confidence i think this is another good way to do that so i'll take the bears here anything up to three

uh commanders cardinals pats on deck for uh the bears after this so again consistently soft landing spots for Caleb to kind of find his juju. It feels like, I mean, Caleb's almost like a very interesting as a dog offensive rookie of the year candidate. There's so much Jane Daniels buzz that I think you're going to start to see.

What is he right now? At least 3-1. Oh, Jane Daniels is minus 250. Wow. He's 3-1 one um i mean it makes sense jayden daniels played awesome so um but yeah it's early it's early it is early i mean yeah caleb is trash in the in the in the chat uh it's a very interesting take after a handful of come on man yeah no easy but um i'm with connor on the on the uh on the broncos side i think a handful of games. Come on, man. Yeah. Easy, buddy. I'm with Connor on the Broncos side.

I think Broncos, I don't know. I don't really understand that one at all, especially even like, yeah, through the full three just doesn't make any sense to me at all. I feel like that should be probably a pick-em at best. I think even the market doesn't really buy into the Broncos yet. I think that that's something that's probably incorrect. And give me the Falcons team total over 26 and a half on the road against the JV Carolina Panthers defense. I'm just buying the Falcons, maybe catching a little bit of momentum here.

Soft spot here in the division to kind of get things cooking and hang some points. So probably lay the six to would make some sense, but I just give me a bullish spot on the, on the pan on the Falcons hanging points on the Panthers. So, all right guys, Mike, great to catch up, buddy. Tell everyone where they could find you, all your stuff and everything that's going on at FTN. FTN fantasy. Our models are rolling DVO way.

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