Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 6 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions | 49ers, Saints & More!

Episode Date: October 11, 2023

Welcome to the ULTIMATE Week 6 NFL Betting Guide! Elevate your NFL betting game with our expert insights into Week 6 of the 2023 NFL Betting Season!In this comprehensive guide, we’re diving deep into the world of NFL betting, focusing on the 49ers, Saints, and more teams to bring you the BEST bets, the most enticing odds, and our top-tier predictions to help you make informed betting decisions! Our seasoned betting experts share their top predictions to guide your betting choices.0:00 Intro4:26 Saints vs. Texans Week 6 NFL Best Bets12:02 49ers vs. Browns Week 6 NFL Best Bets21:10 Seahawks vs. Bengals Week 6 NFL Best Bets31:47 Lions vs. Buccaneers Week 6 NFL Best Bets38:48 Cowboys vs. Chargers Week 6 NFL Best Bets45:09 More Week 6 NFL Best Bets53:48 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansBecome a 4for4 Bets YouTube Member  👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/@4for4Bets/joinSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by Fandle Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen and Sharp Clark who I blame for uh how I look right now although I I did to myself I suppose uh Clark I'll start with you I you know I want to get your reaction here I went full on so folks who listen to the podcast we appreciate it typically we want to drive you to the YouTube page but we appreciate the podcast people today because i am paying off uh a iteration of my bangles titans bet from week four uh where i have to wear a fedora and my wife went ahead and bought this clark i know this is not a full fedora this feels like something in the fedora family i'm also wearing my blue blocker glasses so i'm trying to go full clark. How am I doing?

I mean, this is more than I could have possibly imagined for the punishment fulfillment. I'm so satisfied. Yeah, much deserved. And to your point, it wasn't just that I lost the side. It was a 27-3 shellacking of my pro bangles take, which had some flop lag last week. Cardinals will do that to you, but they definitely came home and paid off the goods. Connor, you've been laughing nonstop since I popped up here. How are we doing? I mean, I think we've done this show, what, five, six years? And I don't think I've ever seen you wear anything outside of a backwards hat, a regular facing hat, or just nothing. And so glasses and, I mean, that looks more like a bucket hat like sun hat like something like

my mom would wear to the pool like combo it doesn't even look like a fedora so it's i mean it's a great combo i'm probably gonna burst out laughing at some point during the episode but i'll try my best to make it through my head kind of hurts too like i said we've only had it on here for a solid three minutes and it's it's just resting weird and then the glasses too like this is why i'm not a big sunglasses guy for the same reason, it's just resting weird. And then the glasses too, like, this is why I can't, I'm not a big sunglasses guy for the same reason. Like it kind of, you know, I don't know. I'm glad I don't have to, I'm lucky. I'm old, but the vision is holding up. So, but yeah, check out the podcast.

If you're on YouTube, just hang it up, come back, check out the podcast. You don't need this for an hour in your life, but the three of us are going to be here every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. You can find the podcast in your feed on Wednesday evening. Subscribe to both so you don't miss a show. It's free content. Support it.

We appreciate that. It goes a long way in helping us build all the tools, all the things that we want to do over 4 for 4. It helps us quite a bit. If you are listening and hanging out on youtube jump in the chat let us know what your favorite look here for week six is a lot of movement on the board a lot of news to unpack here injuries as we typically see on wednesdays as well um don't forget to come back on friday we'll not be wearing this attire it'll be prop drop as friday afternoons

3 p.m eastern on the youtube page here uh That is myself, Connor, and John Hyslop handing out prop winners for you every week on Friday. So also great time. It is discount season at 444. The betting subscription gets you access to all of our plays. So the three of us push out official plays to the subscribers through our Discord. Betting sub gets you access to the Discord and then literally everything else that The four for four does rankings, tools, projections, articles,

anything that we do. You can use promo code week six to get 25% off of the already discounted price. So now that we're already in week six, we've already discounted it quite a bit. The additional 25% off takes you down quite a bit. So head over to four for four.com slash plans. Use the promo code week six,

get that extra 25% off and then join us for the rest of the season. Fantasy might be going sideways for you. Things are not going the way you want it to. We start fresh zero and zero every week on the bet side. So that's definitely the place to be, 444.com slash plans. All right, guys, lots of movement, lots of news. And we have some of those games here slated for this week. Let's just jump right into it here. We will start with the Saints and Texans. Saints, make sure we have any movement here because the odd screen is on fire right now and popping up everywhere. It looks like we're still the same here.

We have basically the Saints one and a half point favorites across the board. We have a total of 42 and a half. Clark, I'll let you get started with this one. Big bounce back win for the Saints in New England last week after a tough week four loss in the division to Tampa Bay and a collapse in week three against Green Bay. I'm not really sure how much it was New Orleans. It was 34 zip. Partially New England's ineptitude there.

But again, resounding win uh what are your thoughts here on saints texans i'm a little surprised there hasn't been more interest in the saints in the marketplace i know that they're on the road here but laying such a small number after a dominant win against the patriots i mean like winning 34-0 in that fashion doesn't make a statement about how good your offense is but but just in every facet of the game, they dominated. And then meanwhile, Houston lost to an Atlanta team that isn't particularly good. I think the betters are having a hard time pricing the Saints because they've looked pretty decent for the most part outside of that collapse against Green Bay in which Derek

Carr got hurt. And then that game against Tampa Bay in which Derek Carr probably played hurt. But they also haven't really played anybody right i mean they they played the packers the bucks uh the panthers the uh you know who do they oh yeah the patriots who look terrible i don't even know but they haven't had any statement wins say you know this is a team that is contending and so people are kind of like looking for spots maybe to to kind of of fade them and be like, well, they're not that good. They can't be four and two. They can't be five.

They can't be six and two. But the thing is their schedule is so easy and their defense is so good that I think they can be. And in this game, I think the Texans are not in a good spot to succeed. We talked about this last week, or at least I wrote about it, but teams that have bad receivers,

I mean, not bad receivers, but receivers that, that aren't elite when playing against, you know, aggressive man defenses struggle in the passing game, because when you're playing man defense, you're basically saying you need to beat us with your talent. And the saints have said that to every team they've played. And most teams they played don't have receiver talent. The Texans will likely be without tank Dell who didn't practice today with a concussion. Uh, so it's going to be Nico Collins, I guess. I don't see how the Texans have an explosive passing game in this one. I think

it's going to be a struggle for the Texans offense to get going. And on the other side, Derek Carr is getting comfortable. He obviously showed he was healthy last week. He made some plays downfield. I like where this Saints offense is heading with the weapons that they have, getting Alvin Kamara back. This will probably be the best iteration of this offense. And so I like laying a small number here with the saints, even on the road. I'm a little bit surprised that that hasn't gotten up to three. We might see some movement later in the week,

but, but I like the center. Yeah. Connor, I don't know what the people know what to make of either of these clubs in a way. I mean, like,

so the saints defense has been excellent and basically any metric that you're looking at they're basically top three top five success rate epa uh justin net yards per pass attempt yards per drive points per drive all of it um to clark's point they haven't played anyone uh so it's really really hard to get a sense of you know who they are and how good are they now they've typically under dennis allen have kind of been a team that's outperformed expectations defensively every year. And they are going to give CJ Stroud a lot of single high man looks here. He's been really good against those this season when kept clean.

And that would be the only thing that I would say that the Saints defense is below average at least to date has been getting pressure on the quarterback. So that's kind of the, I think the key to the handicap here is are the Texans able to continue to keep Stroud uh upright and can he do it without tank Dell because it seems like at this point we've pretty much seen you know you get concussed uh it's pretty much costing you the next week for the most part it's hard for these guys to kind of get out of things um so what are your thoughts here on on Texans? Yeah, my original take was kind of what Clark was saying, especially with how just aggressive man defense they play. Like, I feel

like that's just kind of a Saints staple at this point and how that meshes against the Texans. I thought it would be kind of disadvantageous. Now I do think the Tank Dell injury is a big one because so far CJ Stroud and the Texans have actually been really good against man coverage. So CJ Stroud completing 61% of his passes, averaging over nine yards per attempt right now against man defense, which is, you know, remarkable. But again, a lot of that relies on having your full allotment of already pretty thin

weapons at this stage. And I think it was very, in hindsight, you know, very obvious that the saints were able to dominate, you know, teams such as the Patriots who have like decrepit talent at a wide receiver. And, you know, like, again, like I can cover Devante Parker. I mean, it's literally what I would have done. Um, and, and so, um, and then, but they struggled against a team like Tampa Bay that has legitimately good, you know, wide receivers. Like there's, there's times like where, you know, I think there's that push and pull. And so where did the Texans fall in that? I think

we've seen some interesting concepts from this offense that makes me think that maybe they can survive kind of some of the state, the same strong defense, but their running game hasn't been good enough. Like their offensive line is still not fully healthy. Like it's just like a lot of different ways here where they're without tank Dell, who's another one of their options. It's kind of just a stay away from me. Um, and not one where I'm willing to be like, okay, well, I want Houston money line here. And to be honest, like I'm still kind of getting my grasp on the saints offense. I think Clark made some great points specifically about them, but I don't feel, I guess, strong enough in my conviction to feel good about them either way, especially in the spot with the Texans defense

that was playing really well. And then let Desmond Ritter have like literally his best day of his career last week. Like, I mean, by far and away his best game in my opinion. So, you know, like for me, that's kind of a tough, easy thing to stay away from considering, you know, a lot of a Michael Thomas and all of them can probably take advantage of that. If not more than what we saw doesn't rid or do. Yeah. It's all fair. I mean, especially, you know, making that last drive down to get another field goal. And that was part of it.

They kicked too many field goals last week. If they can convert and those are, you know, touchdowns or even one more of those touchdowns, it obviously changes the whole dynamic of that game and our impressions of the Texans, I think, and Falcons, I think, maybe are a little bit different. So you can't really settle for field goals on the road. And they allowed the Falcons' room to come back in that game.

So I'm kind of with you guys. I want to see it a little bit. It was encouraging to see that Carr looked a little bit more like himself and not the version that we saw at home against the Bucs. So there's something there in terms of him coming around. Texas feel like an interesting teaser leg, if that's your thing here. At that price, at one and a half, you were able to get through the three and the seven, if that's your thing, if you have any conviction

that they can hang here. But yeah, otherwise, it's kind of a stay away for me as of now. Interesting to see if Clark is is right if this continues to move uh with uh you know the pro saint sentiment as the market you know kind of gets closer to three here uh but hold on for now i'm probably interested in playing alt spreads on the saints so okay uh not interested in teaser like for sure i'm not interested in teaser like in the texans because i think it's a situation where like uh you know we we saw the Texans defense get exposed by Desmond Ritter. We know the Saints can score on them

if the Falcons can. And so if the Texans are unable, like everything's been going well for the Texans. I don't think C.J. Stroud has taken a sack in the last two weeks. And one thing that the Saints have done this year and historically is get a high sack rate per pressure.

They've never been a particularly good team at actually getting pressures, but they're good at turning those pressures into sacks. So I think if CJ Stroud takes a couple sacks here, we can see a very different Texans offense and things kind of snowball a little bit. Yeah, I think the pressure comes on the card because we saw what they were able to do last week.

They kind of bottled up Bijan Robinson. And I don't feel like at this point in his career, Alvin Kamara is a guy that's going to beat you with 18 plus carries. He's going to have to be heavily involved in the passing game. Yeah. It's an interesting game. I'm not making a hat bet on it. I'll tell you that much right now, but you know, I think that they're an interesting teaser leg, but you know, we'll have to wait and see. All right. This next one is very much newsworthy. I think we were very interested to talk about it anyway. And now that we have some news this is uh changing dynamic here we have san francisco on the road in cleveland

uh another spot where the odds board is lighting up we are basically there's some sevens out here now fandle uh still six and a half though juiced towards the seven we are getting that way total 37 and a half on fandle there are some 37s in the market as well. And there are multiple reasons here. It is an interesting total considering that the 49ers have scored themselves at least 30 in every game this season, eight consecutive weeks, dating back to the end of last regular season. They just hung 42, albeit at home, against one of the league's toughest defenses. Again, situation a little different here on the road against the Browns who are coming off of a bye in week five.

Though this is more than anything, I think this is one of the many spots we look at the Midwest and the East Coast this week where we look to have early dicey weather, rain and wind in the forecast in a handful of spots. We know how this can be in Cleveland when we get into October, November, December. That's definitely something to monitor. And the the other thing to monitor which is a little concerning i was even this morning we were like what's going on with deshaun watson it seemed like last week

or two weeks ago uh in that baltimore game he had been medically cleared and like stefanski was like he knows his body more than anyone. And he didn't feel good. Now we're coming off of a buy. We thought we'd be okay, but whatever they had for practice walkthrough yesterday, he wasn't a part of. And now today it seems even more likely that there's something going on there. And then they had made the statement that it's going to be PJ Walker and not DTR. That did not go very well. I don't have a ton of confidence in PJ Walker is that this should be drastically different, although maybe it's, you know, to be fair, PJ Walker's

at least made multiple starts in this league. DTR looks very underwhelming and unprepared to handle that. But again, interested to see what happened with this line movement, Clark, I'm going to start with you because we were talking a little bit before show like the seven to me still feels like people don't know what they want to do. We're moving through some key numbers. That still to me feels like a Watson number. We kind of disagree on how high this could get to, considering it's on the road with the team coming off a bye.

I don't know what to make. The Browns defense is good. We did lots of offseason shows. I was all over Browns defense being good. It did lots of offseason shows. I was all over Browns defense being good. It's not quite Saints easy schedule, but they've taken advantage of a really soft opening schedule of opponents as well. So like I do think that's partially to have to do with their inflated numbers defensively. Because Lamar cooked them in week four before the bye.

And Lamar did not look very good. Oh, he looked okay last week. His teammates dropped a lot of balls. But I don't know. a lot of things there. A lot of moving parts, Niners Browns. What are your thoughts here? Well,

first of all, PJ Walker has not only made starts in this league, he made arguably the best throw of the entire season last year. When he, when he hit DJ more in the end zone for the, you know, I don't know if they missed the extra point or something that mess. I had the money line on the pants in that game i was pissed about something anyway um pj walker can

play he's inconsistent he'll make a lot of mistakes he he can throw it downfield though and i think the issue here is the weather right like the 49ers linebackers and defensive line are so good that you cannot just throw to the flat and expect to get six yards and and you know move the chains that way because they close so fast and so aggressively and so when you have weather like you're going to have in cleveland probably it takes away some of those deep shots which is really the the way you have to attack this 49ers defense you have to stretch them out if you're playing short and you're running a lot, they're going to get closer and closer and tighter and tighter. And so I do, I do have some skepticism about the 49ers offense against this, this Browns defense, but I just think they're going to have enough possessions,

right? I mean, if the Browns are going three and out on almost every time they get the ball, eventually those drives for 49ers are going to start shifting the field, right? Like a balance, they get a short field, they score a touchdown. Now you're playing with a deficit and it's going to be really difficult for the Browns to come back from a deficit here. And so anytime you're laying under, under seven, all it takes is a touchdown for the 49ers to take that lead. And it's going to be really hard for them to let that go. So I'm not, I'm not particularly interested in playing the Browns at a lower number. If it gets high enough, you know, we'll see. We'll see who's playing quarterback. But I'm kind of like,

I don't want to get in front of the 49ers truck. I'm not jumping in front of that with eagerness. This is probably a game I'm going to stay away from because there is a price. There is a price where the median outcome favors the Browns. I don't know what that number is. It might be nine, 10, but there is a number. I just don't know what it is.

Connor, the Browns thought so much of PJ Walker last week that they gave DTR the start against the Ravens. So I'm not super into PJ Walker being a massive difference maker. Highlight throw to DJ Moore aside, but the weather I do think is a massive piece of this. What are your thoughts on all the things that are going on here with San Francisco and in Cleveland? I'm just disappointed that honestly, we didn't get like a banged up Deshaun Watson for sure in this game, because I think like five and a half, five, which is what it was sitting at where I played it when we were doing all of our prep for the show. You know, I had that and I would have pretty strong take it. Niners minus five and a half, Deshaun playing banged up, you know, in this spot here, because beyond this, like I think you mentioned it with Cleveland's defense is that I think they're definitely really

good. They're probably a top five unit, but like to this point, they allowed Lamar to complete 78.9% of his passes, 9.8 yards per time. Now they capitalize on a lot of turnovers from DTR, like short fields. Like that's how they really made the score look as bad as it is. But I think that this Niners team is significantly better than what we saw the written know, that whole Ravens top to bottom basically there in my mind. So, like, I think if we're looking at those two instances of, like, that's the only team, real team that they've played, I don't really think that they're going to be bottling up this Niners offense by any means, but I don't think that the Niners are going to be dropping,

like, 40 on them like they have been all season. So, I think that we're probably looking at, you know, a relatively high scoring outcome for them, you know, relative to most other teams in the league, but not for them. So we're talking about below average outcome for the Niners. And then for the Browns here, I mean, it could be an absolute disaster with PJ Walker. I just don't think that given the weather, like you said, like if they're not able to stretch the field, if they're not able to take advantage of anything here, like we're in a really bad spot, like a really, really bad spot for this Browns team.

So I think if we're like, if we get more negative Deshaun news, like I would take a piece of the six and a half. I don't think it's moving back the other way. And even if it does, and we get Deshaun news that he's playing, I actually still feel fine about it. Like I think getting it under seven, even with Deshaun, I mean, I know that's not the number and I know it won't be the number of Deshaun's playing, but I'm saying that I still would feel good about it because I, that's where I would have the Niners closer to then, uh, you know, the Browns. So I don't it because I, that's where I would have the Niners closer to then, you know, the Brown. So I don't know.

I know that's a little bit of a contrarian take there, but that's just kind of a stand that I'm willing to take this week. Well, there's a great equalizer. Clark, where do we go with PJ Walker as the starter? What's this number? Definitely at least eight and a half.

I don't know that it touches 10. I think, I think if it touches 10, I think you'll see some buyback from, from betters that are interested in just taking the number, you know, low, very low total,

bad weather, really good defense. And in Cleveland there, there's a limit to how high this can get. I think eight and a half probably if, if confirmed PJ Walker. Connor, what's your blocking point on PJ Walker walker is it eight and a half

yeah i mean it's it's tough because of the weather we have to clear the weather first but i asked our group chat fsm and asked them and they they all said like eight and a half don't think it would get to 10 too so same kind of thing because you think about too like the downgrade like i think that's always an important point like the downgrade from watson to pj walker is you know through key numbers of like, you know, seven is like probably like four points is very significant. Like from five and a half to whatever, eight and a half, nine, nine, something like that. That's like a pretty massive move. So, you know, especially if he's banged up. So I think that that's about right. Honestly,

if it touched 10, I mean, that would be, uh, it would definitely get a lot of buybacks. I don't think that it gets there, even though it is PJ Walker, I just don't think it gets there. Might see some teaser protection from books moving to nine to take away the six-point teaser under the three. I don't know. That makes sense to me. I get it. So a couple of things here too.

The other element is that we have market sentiment on the Niners is as high as it's not necessarily as it is going to be, but as high as it can be right now, right. They are to, to do what they did in prime time. You just, you're seeing futures markets move in a way that's very pro 49ers. Like you want to be, I'm trying to be cognizant of that as well, knowing that like, Hey, I don't want to be, you know, a victim of the moment here where we're caught up on everything that's pro niners. It looked really damn good. I do have questions about stability of the Browns on both sides of the ball you know i just think this team without

nick chubb is a totally different uh ball club and i think we just haven't had a lot of weeks of what that really looks like yet so um interesting game interesting market to watch and see how that develops um you know news there more than anywhere this week seems to be pretty prominent because we are dancing around some key numbers and it's going to be hard to really get a feel for it until we get a better feel for the weather. And that's really hard to do on a Wednesday afternoon, but it doesn't look great really across the board in some of those spots in the Midwest. More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action.

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on the road in Cincinnati uh opened Cincy minus two and a half. Those are mostly gone at this point. Let me confirm that that is still the case. Looks like Caesar still has it. Our friends here at FanDuel are at three. It looks like there's a handful depending on where you're at. So shop around. That's an important key number there. Total 45 and a half on FanDuel.

There are 45s in the marketplace as well, depending on what you're doing here. Seattle coming off of a bye in week five. Looked great against the Giants in primetime before the bye. Giants will do that to you. Gino got dinged up a little bit in that one. Pete Carroll says he's fine. We're going to operate under that is the correct assumption here.

Bengals took advantage of a soft opponent, Connor, finally a week late for me, but it was an encouraging sign for them to at least show us a glimpse of the elite passing offense, regardless of the opponents. Encouraging part, I think, was not anything we saw on the stat sheet. If you watch that game, Joe Burrow showed some mobility that we had not seen yet. Navigated the pocket in a very different way, scrambled, bought more time, he even had a 10-yard scramble. Certainly not the guy that we saw in Tennessee the week prior again I don't want to overrate one good game against the Cardinals that is not the place to do it I think we need to be convinced a little bit more that they are fully back but it was good to see this is going to be an interesting game here what are your

thoughts on Seattle and Cincinnati well I'm going to give ourselves a little pat on the back because I think we we talked about the range of outcomes here with this Bengals offense against teams that don't blitz. They don't get pressure and they kind of sit back. And that's exactly what happened. I mean, Joe Burrow dropped back a bunch and was barely pressured on any of his dropbacks. And against pressure, he still wasn't good. He completed like three of his five passes for eight yards against the other in the other 40 dropbacks or whatever it was. He completed like 80% of his passes and was just crushing it.

And so I think that was very specific to the matchup there. So we saw the Titans two weeks ago do the exact opposite. They played, especially on third down, they put a bunch of man, they got a bunch of pressure and Joe Burrow turned into cupcake. He couldn't move. Now last week he could move a little bit more, but I don't, I don't think that he's like fully back. And so I think in this spot here, it's really interesting to see what Seattle does because Seattle, contrary to basically what we saw from the Cardinals seventh and pressure rate, middle of the pack and blitz rate skew pretty massively zone heavy, but they're going to have everyone back, you know, Tariq Roland will be back or is there a Devin Witherspoon's there. Jamal Adams was clear concussion protocol. He'll be back. So like you have all of these factors

here where I think the Seattle defense is, I think they're actually pretty good. They just haven't played benefitably healthy yet. And so now at this point, like you're getting this matchup. If, if they can get pressure on Burrow, I think that Seattle here wins outright and wins by a good margin. Now, if they can't, that's the big question is that that's, I think kind of the equalizer here, because I think that if they can't get pressure, then if Burrow is able to pick them apart, I think we're going to get a good game either way, lead towards Seattle plus three. Um, and I think that if they can't get pressure, then if Burrow is able to pick them apart, I think we're going to get a good game. Either way, I'll lead towards Seattle plus three. And I think that in this spot too, the Cincinnati run defense has been really bad to start the season. Dead last and explosive run rate allowed, 28th in EPA per play, 20th in rushing success rate.

And so I think that Seattle having that kind of edge as well as potentially middling Cincinnati defense in the secondary, I think they'll be able to score, and now they have a chance and a possibility to really, really put some pressure on Burrow. So if those things happen, I think Seattle wins by a lot. If not, I think there's a good chance they cover. But that's my take there. I'm interested to hear your guys' thoughts.

Yeah, I like some of the things that Connor said, Clark. I mean, Seattle, part of it is the Giants game skews some of those metrics too, right? Where like their pressure rate stuff is significantly higher than we expected. And part of it was they just were literally in the backfield all game against the Giants. But when you look, you look at like some individual players and they're like ESPN's pass rush win rate metric. A lot of them are like in the top 15 or 20, which is very surprising. Again, you know, that game against the Giants helped, but the Bengals have been incredibly inefficient running the football. And I don't know, it feels like it's going to be another borough-centric game here. I'm not really quite sure what to say. Hey, Sam, the hat's throwing me off as well, man. I don't know what to do. I can't look at myself. I'm looking at notes and other stuff. I can't look. It's a joke.

But Clark, what are your thoughts here in this matchup? I think it's going to be an interesting game. Yeah, definitely an interesting game. I might disagree on the Seattle defense. I'm not sold, but we've only got four games sample size for them. And they've had injuries in the secondary kind of in and out throughout that time. But in those games, they were really bad on defense against the rams they were really bad on defense against the lions they were pretty bad against andy dalton and the panthers um and then they absolutely you know skull effed the giants i don't know what i can say i guess um 11 sacks

whatever the giants were missing three offensive linemen and daniel jones just was so bad in that game he had no time and and how much of that do you attribute to the seattle defense how much of that do you attribute to a giants team that hasn't really shown up on offense in any game except one half um so i'm not convinced the seattle defense is good um i think they're probably about average the bengals defense hasn't been good at all. Last year, they were run by their defense. And this year, their defense has been playing poorly every week, basically. So even if Joe Burrow is better, which he is, I mean, not only was he moving around

and scrambling, but he was driving his throws in a way that he hadn't been this year. So every aspect of his game looked great against the Cardinals. And that's not just a product of bad defense. Like his physically as a thrower and mover just looked better. So I think that does continue. So that would lead me to be interested in the over here because I think both offenses can be successful, but what's keeping me off the bed is the, is the potential weather impact in Cincinnati. I don't want to be betting into an over and then come kick off its 30 mile an hour winds and rain and it has no shot, right?

So I want to be able to react to the weather situation, but fundamentally matchup wise, I like the over. And I think bettors should be able to get either Seattle plus three or Bengals minus two and a half if they want the spread because it's bouncing back and forth. You may have to pay a little bit of juice, but you can play whichever side of this game you want and forced to play one of those two options. I would lean Bengals minus two and a half because I think Joe Burrow can get the job

done here at home and laying under a field goal is oftentimes a question of who wins the game. Yeah, good points there. Some of the stuff too, we need to see the health injury report i think seattle's getting healthier coming off the bye but um you know we need to see some of that stuff and like who's playing slot corner and some of that stuff like already burns was out but already burns has been cooked all season so him being back i don't know if that makes a ton of sense there's some stuff on seattle's defense that makes me a little nervous you could sell me on

like regression being a part of it but you know they're middle of the pack of basically every metric defensively really struggled on late downs they've allowed opponents to convert a first down on 52.4 percent of their third down snaps like third or second highest in the league it's really bad only the bears are worse on third down on like red zone snaps um teams have had seven of eight red zone trips this season and in the touchdown against the saints i mean against the seahawks so again you can tell me that like that's going to regress it probably will um it's not going to continue at like an 83 clip but at the same time like and you got to be able to get off the field when it matters you got to be able to stop teams when they're in the red zone that's been a problem for them this year

so that's why i think some of the like awesome stats for their defense makes me a little bit nervous to really believe that's who they are other than their run defense i do think their run defense is strong so yeah it's definitely something that i want to see where the weather is and get a better feel for where we are around the two and a half or three but it's going to be an interesting football game and i think going gonna tell us a little bit about these teams moving forward and that partly partially is what we're looking to do here in week six is get a better feel for who these teams are as the sample size grows i think we also need to keep an eye on t higgins because he's probably not going to play but it's not ruled out and you know when

you're they didn't really go to tyler boyd as much in his place they went to what trenton irwin or whatever yeah um so i think higgins makes a big difference too for this game uh to keep an eye on that do we do we want a quick uh quick weather primer right here yeah this is a weather week you know this is like a weather week you got we got uh one two three four five six seven games with potential wins that might matter. So just, all right, I'll make this spiel a little quick here. So based on our research at four for four, we, what broke down when wind matters and when rain matters, when snow matters. So wind starts to matter 15 miles per hour. You see quarterbacks yards per attempt

dropped by about like a quarter, which is not a ton, but then a 20 miles per hour drops by over a full yard, a yard per attempt at 20 mile per hour, sustained winds, not just Gus sustained winds Broncos and chiefs on Thursday. Looks like we're getting like 20 ish mile per hour winds Gus up to 30. So wind could definitely matter there. But again, like these forecasts are not very good. You need to check in on the day of like, that's the issue is that like Clark gave a major caveat there. It was like, but check for the weather because I mean, there's sometimes where even like, you know, hurricanes will be coming in and we're projecting 40 mile per hour winds.

You get there and there's eight mile per hour winds. Your handicap is totally, you know, duffed. So this week, six games, Broncos, Kansas city, uh, Washington, Atlanta. Is that indoors? It looks like it could be indoor. Yeah. Okay. So then there are five games, Chicago, Minnesota, uh, Cincinnati, Seattle, Browns and Niners potentially,

as well as Houston. Again, New Orleans, another home dome game. So yeah, look at that Tampa Bay and Detroit. So those are the games that you might need to pay attention to. Rain doesn't really matter unless it's like a hurricane.

Snow doesn't really matter unless it's like an absolute downpour. So don't really even factor that in. All right. All right. In case it, you know, rain's here, I'm ready to go. Got this new rain chapeau ready to go. This will just filter everything.

What do they call that? What do they call that on Amazon? I don't know, man. What did Ashley buy? Taking it back. Can you return it? I mean, I guess you can probably. Connor.

Price tag staying on this bad boy we're here for the bet we're paying it off you know um my son is up so it's gonna get dicey here in a minute but um yeah we paid off a bet and uh you know clark clark took my uh my lunch money on uh on titans and bangles the other day. So here we are. If you're just joining the show and seeing this, it's tough to look at, guys. All right. We'll keep it moving here. Lions and Tampa Bay. In Florida.

So I don't know, again, if they're going to be a victim of the weather issues here. Again, we are outdoors. Tampa Bay coming off a buy. This is Detroit minus three. Trending towards three and a half in some spots too i'll shout the total here as well if you have a lean sitting around some key numbers uh fanduel 43 and a half there are 44s out there as well um and big injury news to monitor on both sides here first the bucks um mostly healthy coming out of the buy especially on the defensive

side they're getting mostly everyone back mike evans is a problem, though. Mike Evans tweaked his hammy in that Week 4 game against the Saints and has not been a part of practice so far this week. As of Wednesday, was not spotted at practice. That's a problem. He's been really good for the Bucs this year and I think a big part of what they've been doing. Lion side injuries as well. Amon Ra looked close to playing maybe the other day. Looks like he's trending in the right direction. We need to see Brian Lion side injuries as well. Amon Ra look close to playing maybe the other day.

Looks like he's trending in the right direction. We need to see Brian Branch's status as well. I'm assuming Amon Ra goes, we don't know about Brian Branch, but yeah, I don't want to make a ton about what we saw with the Lions just absolutely clubbing the Panthers at home. Yeah, but what are your thoughts here, Conor? Let you get started with the Lions and Bucs. Yeah, I think this one is a tough one to break down here. I personally, we talked about it with their last game against Philly, and we were looking for a spot to fade the Bucs, and it turns out that might have been it.

And so I think in that spot there, that was a good one. But here, I lean towards Detroit a little bit. I think the Bucs' defense is solid, but I think their metrics might tell a unique story. They're eighth in pass EPA allowed, but they allowed 7.8 yards per attempt to Kirk Cousins. They allowed seven after Jalen Hurts. But a lot of their strength in EPA basically has come from their red zone where they've been elite so far. I think it's three points per red zone visit, which is literally they're not allowing any

touchdowns there. So it's, it's pretty crazy overall. So I think that maybe that's a strength. Maybe that's a skill, you know, not stop or allowing teams not to score in the red zone there specifically. But at the same time, it seems like that's probably going to regress a little bit here. But again, for Detroit, I'm in Ross St. Brown. I think it looks like he's going to play a little bit banged up. David Montgomery, probably going to play again. And then, uh, Jameer Gibbs is still out, but, uh, honestly he hasn't really mattered for them all that much to be entirely Frank here. So I think in this spot here, I think I would lean towards Detroit at minus three. Again, just looking for ways to fade the box because I'm just not fully sold on them. Uh, even though they have had some great games and honestly

have looked good at certain times. Uh, I certain times. I think this is another good spot here because I think this Detroit team is, at this point, almost fully legit. Clark, what are your thoughts on this one? This spread has me a little confused. I don't know who's betting the bucks here. I mean, it's Lions minus three. Granted, you have to pay extra for the three.

But my numbers suggest the spread should be higher like my numbers suggest the spread should be higher. You know, the metrics suggest the spread should be higher. Public sentiment just, you know, is super high in the Lions. I don't really know where the Bucks love is coming from. Like they haven't been that good this year. So I'm a little bit confused. And in those spots, I tend to hesitate because you know it's possible like there must be something i'm missing that's kind of what i'm left with um the spread makes no sense we'll see we'll see where it goes as the week goes on and we get more clarity on the injuries but you know maybe maybe the bucks uh blitz is enough to kind of disrupt what the lines want to do on

offense but i kind of feel like you know even that might go the other way because the way the lines offense is set up is to capitalize on opponent weaknesses. So if the Bucs are being overly aggressive, the Lions have the right tools to kind of capitalize on that. We saw that last year. I can't remember if it was the Packers or the Jets game, but the Lions, you know, there was a blitz and the Lions responded with like just the right pass to the tight end on the left. And it was a 50-yard touchdown and it broke the game open. and that's the kind of stuff that ben johnson does week to week so you know it can't can baker mayfield perform at a high level against what is one of the best defenses in the league metrically uh granted they lost mosley at cornerback now for the season uh

he's you know adding to the injury report that already had cj gardner johnson played two snaps though he came poor guy came in after missing the whole season plays two snaps and blows his ecl so they've been all right without him yeah but but he was you know it's like he was gonna step up and you know brian branch has been out so their secondary is already banged up um you know i i don't really see any reason to back tampa bay here other than uh you know home team like maybe weather impacts Detroit more than it impacts Tampa Bay like Jared Goff has performed poorly and in the elements maybe that's just keeping the spread down it's it's a legitimate angle um but this may be one that I just kind of let happen and and find out afterwards and be like wow like I just I missed something there so

I didn't even say anything when I teed it off to you because i thought you were coming in with some pro bucks thoughts um no i can't get there okay yeah connor we typically don't want jerry goff in his baby hands when it's cold out i don't know that we're super worried about that being you know the case in in tampa bay at this time of year but um yeah i mean look i still want to have a tampa bay fade um i'm not really buying some of the like late, late down magic of Baker. Really don't like it here. If Mike Evans isn't a part of it. So like if you like the Lions, I think now is the time. This only probably goes the other way.

Probably becomes more pro-Lion stuff. And if we get more actual bad news on Mike Evans, this floats to four, four and a half pretty quickly, I would think. Because still what the Lions want to do is run the ball. Tampa Bay, really bad in the trenches on both sides. They are dead last in a run-stop win rate. They're dead last in protecting their quarterback and moving the line. It's just, it's not a good team in the trenches.

And I still think that's going to show up to matter at some point this season, even though they're starting to get healthy on the defensive side. So pro lions for me, I like the threes. If you can still find them. You want to hear something crazy. So Baker right now, according to PFF is actually the best quarterback in the league under pressure right now. He's like completing like 65% of his passes is like no interceptions,

a bunch of touchdownss like averaging like a good yards per attempt i i don't know where it's coming from or like those plays specifically that he's been like under pressure on because i think that under pressure is a pretty loose term to be thrown around like was a guy you know in his face was the left or the right you know whatever so but i mean just still like over the sample of i mean it's like a lot of dropbacks it's not like one game at this point it's like you know multiple weeksbacks. It's not like one game at this point. It's like, you know, multiple weeks. So I don't know. I thought that was pretty wild.

We just have a multiple year sample of him being just absolutely atrocious in that same scenario. So it's hard to know what to make of that. So yeah, I want to be in on that. And again, it looks like for the most part, we still have, you know, threes out there. You know, FanDuel, it's minus 120. You're paying for

it a little bit um there are some shorter prices as some other spots have already moved out to three and a half all right uh last we have the monday night of dallas on the road in la against the chargers dallas a two and a half point favorite here still yeah two and a half there are some twos in the market as well uh total hovering around key numbers so shop there to fanduel 50 and a half there are 51s on the board as well again another spot where injuries make a pretty massive impact on the handicap here charges coming off a buy likely getting austin eckler back uh defensively before the buy they were without joey bosa and both starting safeties um I think their status matters quite a bit here.

What we're going to see moving forward with them, Dallas likely out without Leighton Van Der Esch, kind of jammed his neck late in that game. He's probably going on the IR. That hasn't happened yet officially. De facto home game here, Connor, for the Cowboys. I mean, a Monday night travel spot in LA with the Chargers who just don't have a strong home field advantage anyway.

I think that's probably baked into the line here a little bit. But interesting to hear your thoughts. The Chargers is a team that you like quite a bit, I believe, was your AFC Super Bowl team. Hanging into the season, they're a two-and-a-half point home dog here in week six. Yeah, I don't know. Call me crazy, but I kind of like the Chargers money line here at home. I think that in this spot, though, I worry a little bit, though,

about kind of with the whole Kellen Moore thing. And I think that it kind of like the familiarity, in my opinion, generally usually hurts the offense. At least we see that in at least in NFL games and divisional games, like repeats. Like there used to be a trend towards unders of, you know, the second game in a divisional matchup.

You see that like there's, uh, it was like a historically higher hit rate. I think that was like for, I don't know, five, 10 years in a row or something like that. Now, again, the trend, that trend may not matter. Maybe Kellen Moore's innovated enough that it won't matter here, but I think in this spot, um, with the chargers, they're capable, very capable of beating this Dallas defense. Um, and so overall, like scheme wise, we saw Shanahan kind of talk about it in the off season and then execute it last week where they run these plays to set up, even though they're like dead plays to set up other looks. So like they ran the ball

largely very ineffectively actually, to be honest, which is what I thought they were going to do well. But then it set up the passing game to, you know, 10 yards per attempt from Brock Purdy. And so like, I think that if Kellen Moore has that same kind of attitude, I think that it can work. But the issue is that Kellen Moore and Cal Shannon's offenses are almost like entirely different. Like they're like, they, they don't operate the same. They don't like line up the same. They don't leverage a lot of same concepts. So it's kind of, that's kind of my issues in terms of the similarities there. But I do think that this Cowboys defense overall is a little bit overrated. And I mean, the Cowboys defense is

rough, but I still haven't seen enough, or not the Cowboys, the Chargers defense is rough, but I haven't seen enough from the Cowboys offense to really think that they are able to emphasize this edge here. I think that they've been too inconsistent. So I don't know. It's not a super strong take, but maybe I'm just like fading the Cowboys that I've been wanting to. And it's kind of more of a subjective take here, but I'm just like fading the Cowboys that I've been wanting to. And it's kind of more of a, you know, subjective take here, but I'm interested in fading them. Interesting. Clark, what are your thoughts on this one? This should be a good game. I'm excited to watch it. It's kind of a crucial game for my futures positions, although I'm going to be screwed one way or another because my two biggest positions,

I think, are Cowboys division and Chargers when total over are two of my biggest positions. So one of them is not going to look good coming out of this game, but I, you know, on the look, I'm surprised there wasn't more movement on this, right? The look ahead was two and a half, you know, Cowboys minus two and a half. And I get that look aheads are not particularly efficient, but after the clobbering that the Cowboys took on, on Sunday night to open minus two and there's two and a half still on the board,

is a little bit surprising. You know, the Chargers are on bye, so it's not a downgrade for the Chargers. Maybe, you know, Justin Herbert's hand injury is going to impact the game. I'm not sure. I don't think that they're expecting it to. They might get Austin Eckler back.

They should get Austin Eckler back after the bye, and that's a dynamic of their offense that they really need. So I'm a little bit surprised by the two and a half for the Cowboys. But the problem is I was expecting to like the Cowboys. On the look ahead, I had it, you know, Dallas minus four. So I was expecting, okay, if this opens under a field goal, then great. But the problem is my numbers changed. After watching that game against the 49ers, I did downgrade the Cowboys.

And now I'm right on market at two and a half. So I'm a little bit, I don't know if the, maybe the look ahead market was more efficient that they knew they knew the Cowboys were frauds and we're going to get exposed by the Niners. I don't know. Um, but I think this line's about right. Uh, the chargers miss Mike Williams in a game like this, where the Cowboys played man defense. Um, you have to have guys that win Keenan Allen can win, but he's getting up there. He can run some routes, and I'm sure he'll get his, but the Chargers need another downfield threat. I don't know if Quentin Johnson's going to be that. I don't know if Josh

Palmer's going to be that, maybe a tight end, but they need a second option, and if one doesn't emerge, then I think they're going to be struggling all year. It's going to be Herbert trying to make miracle plays week after week, and against a defense like the Cowboys playing very pissed off after that game um you know the edge probably goes to Dallas I'm not interested in betting them though I think another way you can play this game is to tease the Chargers up um I think anytime you're getting points at with a home underdog with a quarterback of Justin Herbert's caliber. It's a good teaser leg because the game scripts that lend themselves to a Cowboys blowout, like Justin Herbert is playing aggressively in comeback mode and typically

quarterbacks like that will score points. So I think there's a good chance that the charges teaser like hits if you can find something to pair it with, hopefully not the Texans after what I talked about. That was the other note I had here is I thought that was an interesting teaser like for for sure so yeah i mean a good time for the buy for them to you know see if they can acclimate quentin johnston in a different way or see what they can get out of him um you know typically don't like to have a buy that early in the season but it seems like for that team considering the injuries that had happened cluster injuries on the defensive side

uh and then it's just an annual tradition, unfortunately for the chargers is to see cluster injuries on both sides of the ball, but hopefully they can build off of that and the buy and see what they can make of it. But yeah, I do think it's an interesting teaser leg as it stands. I think it's a number that would,

I want to stay away from, but total, you could sell me on a little bit depending on the injuries to the chargers defense. But you know, again, I want to see where that kind of settles here a little bit, depending on the injuries to the Chargers defense. But, you know, again, I want to see where that kind of settles here a little bit. Any other notes for week six that you guys like? Anything else on the board that you want to talk about?

Totals, games that we didn't highlight? Connor, I'll start with you. I think Bears-Vikings over is interesting. I know that that sounds gross without Justin Jefferson, but I was digging into Justin Fields' numbers against Fields numbers against the blitz and they're actually pretty good. Um, like he's averaging like, I think it's like seven and a half, eight yards per attempt, something like that against the blitz. And he's actually been good. It's just when they get pressure, he's not very good. So, but I think that that's actually okay because Minnesota blitz

is a shitload and they don't get pressure all the time. They do get some pressure, but they don't get pressure enough of considering how much they blitz. So shitload. They don't get pressure all the time. They do get some pressure, but they don't get pressure enough considering how much they blitz. So I think that's interesting. He's kind of finding stride a little bit, playing more just like who he is. I don't think he's ever going to be the quarterback that they had hoped he's going to be. I don't think he's ever going to be like their franchise guy, but I think he's good enough to be fun and score some points

from time to time against defenses who are really not all that good. I think Minnesota qualifies there. And then the Bears bears defense i get you don't have justin jefferson but i think they'll be totally fine with hockinson addison you know osborne powell i mean they'll be totally fine there so i think we'll probably see a decent amount of scoring here um i don't know we're seeing 44 and a half in the total so i think the over there is an interesting look i know it's gross but i'm kind of into it it's all right hey gross ones win too uh whether we also we can see what happens i think is important there uh clark what do you like anything else on the board in week six for you yeah i haven't played too much yet this week with all the weather concerns it just you know i

don't love like i'll typically play some private stuff just to kind of like play the weather angles and play back as necessary and that kind of stuff but but i only like to release plays when it's you know something i'm confident i'm gonna like at close so it's been a lighter week but i do like the broncos on thursday night which is super ugly that's a pushback from that one in the discord for sure i did i did they're getting 10 and a half um and i get it right right? Like the Broncos haven't looked good, especially defensively. But I've talked about this before.

You know, when you're talking about how a really good offense matches up against a really bad defense, there's a limit to how good the offense can be. And the things that end up limiting the offensive performance are things like drops and, you know, things that could go either way, right? And when you throw in the idea that there might be 20 mile an hour winds um and a little bit of rain in the game i think the idea that the total

comes down and that's that 10 and a half just becomes you know more important than it is now um i also think there's a chance travis kelsey doesn't play like it wasn't like i know he came back in the game and finished the game but this week of practice has been tough even if he plays you know is he going to be 100 is he going to be a hundred percent? Is he going to play a hundred percent of the snaps? Is he going to be able to beat Patrick Sertan? Who's done a pretty good job when he's been able to get onto Kelsey, like in previous matchups, Kelsey hasn't really been a smash play against the Broncos in the past. And this year, unlike in previous years, I don't think the chiefs have really a good second option. So I think the offense is maybe not going to score every drive

the way people would project in this matchup. And Russell Wilson and the offense has been playing better than people give them credit for. Like the, the just defense is really tough, especially for quarterback like Russell Wilson. So I'm not, I'm not ready to throw the towel in on the Broncos. I don't really, I don't really pay attention to stuff like, you know, oh, well, Sean Payton, like got pissed at Russell Wilson at the end of the game, there's dysfunction, they're gonna, like, their professional football team, they'll figure it out. Like, I've been impressed with how little they've been showing publicly in Denver this year, like Russell Wilson's keeping things, you know, tighter. And I'm just optimistic

that this spread is too big, basically. I wouldn't play it at 10. But getting the hook, getting the hook makes sense. Yeah. Uh, I do not have a stomach for those bets, but I appreciate that you do. And, and if they're in the backdoor process for it, for sure.

Uh, the, the last time, sorry, the last time that anyone got that much shit in the discord was noon and people's parlay and it hit. So, uh,

that's a good sign. I mean, that's a great sign. Yeah. Yeah. I got a lot of shit. I got some support too people like i'm not gonna play it but i hope you win yeah people's parlay this week there are some big boys on the board uh just it's hard you'd have to add so many legs to get it down to like you know even minus 120 that it gets uh that's even a little rich for me because you look at like the bills dolphins and and chiefs and you're still like laying minus 205 or something crazy like that

so just uh not a great week for the people's parlay um the patriots um should they be involved in a game with a total that starts with a four i don't i don't know i don't think so especially with josh mcdaniel's on the other side who just refuses to like beat anyone by margin in his entire career offensively like he gets really tight late in games they kick field goals they're conservative um yeah i mean the pats are in rough rough shape you know, I don't want to make, if it was the two and a half, I have to sit here and make a case for new England being an interesting teaser leg, um, because the just Raiders are not able to beat anyone, um, by, you know, double digits, but man, like everything on new England, the only thing that I would say coming in, I was like, Hey, the Patriots

defense is going to be solid. Matthew Judon is out. Christian Gonzalez has been awesome. He's out. Jawan Bentley hurt his knee late in the game against the Saints. He might be out. Basically, anyone that was getting legit reps that matters on the defense is also suddenly out. And it's bad, bad, bad there. But again, the Raiders aren't a team that I feel great about either. So that total still feels a little high for me. But again, you know, 41 and a half, gosh, the key numbers were kind of right there. But again, I just feel like it should probably

be 30 something and it's not. I wish I would have jumped in early on the Rams and Cardinals number. That was 46 Sunday night when it came back out, was floated back up. Good luck that Clark took advantage of. Yeah, I liked that one quite a bit. Those are some of the preferred ones on the board. I'm going to go back to the well on anti-Titans. Titans team total under 17 and a half, I think is interesting to me this week. I've been really impressed.

I need to eat some crow on the Ravens defense. They've been, especially like the past defense with injuries, past defense has been really good um so that was definitely a piece of my anti let's say anti-Ravens handicap and my concerns about the Ravens coming into the season was their their past defense and it's been pretty fantastic so um I think the Titans struggled to to put up a ton of points in that one as well so yeah those are some of the other looks that I like here for week six are the Patriots favored in a game the rest of the season, you think?

Schedule's brutal. So off the top of my head, I mean, they do play the Jets at home. But, I mean, Aaron Rodgers is almost back. He's got that voodoo magic, whatever he's doing, to be the fastest person in history to recover from an Achilles. To be fair though honestly one leg rogers i think would be probably better than zach wilson um but they they do get the bills twice the dolphins and the chargers and the chiefs um i mean that's just like five

auto elves i mean it's just tell me when i can catch my under seven and a half wins to get i think i think now honestly like that's what I'm holding. You're so good. You're so right. I'll write the book. I'll be like, Hey, it's time to borrow against my Patriots seven and a half tickets.

It's time to invest in something else. Yeah. You're, you're fine there. I would love to see them completely bottom out. But I don't, I don't know. I got some,

some Pat's worst record, 20 to one, baby. Just got to get them to beat out the Panthers and the Bears and the Cardinals. But honestly, they're close. I would love it. I would love for you to catch that bet. That would be fantastic.

Just hit the reset button and figure some stuff out. Yeah, that would be great. Just get in the top five in the draft. I would love to see that. It'd be fantastic. So, all right. I take this stupid hat off now. Are we done?

We good? Yep, it's time. Congrats to Clark. Again, he was on the right side of that one. My Bengals love was misplaced for a week, but now I'm tiptoeing back in. I don't want to go full in because I kind of like Seattle this week too.

I appreciate your dedication and ownership of the bet. Yeah, and I want to pay it in. I don't want to go full in because I kind of like Seattle this week too. So I appreciate your dedication and ownership of the bet. Yeah. And I want to pay it off. I couldn't find one. I looked on Amazon because I forgot that I hadn't bought one again. Amazon said delivery today. I couldn't risk, you know,

7 PM delivery. So I turned it over to my wife. This is what we get. But I feel like it pays off the bet and more. So hopefully we'll get me back. Yeah, we'll find another one. All right. Good stuff as always.

Thanks for hanging out with us again. 444.com slash plans. Use the promo code week six. Take advantage of the 25% discounts to get the betting subscription. You get all of our official plays and everything we do at 444. Come back to the 444 bets YouTube channel on Friday at 3 p.m. Eastern. It'll be Connor, myself and high slot for props uh we have those two shows every week podcast forum wherever you listen as

well we appreciate you guys so for clark and connor i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks you