Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 7 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: October 16, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 7! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 7 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. Ryan Noonan joins here as always by Connor Allen. Week seven of the NFL season. I can't believe we're at the middle of October. We're almost here. I carved pumpkins with my family last night, Connor. It's like 50 degrees here in Chicago. On the high side, we are in this stuff. Excited to get to it today. How you doing, buddy? I'm great. Came off a week where I think I lost three or four props due to injuries, which stunk, but overall it was about even, so I can't complain too much, but excited to dive in today. We got a great guest, so I'll let you do the intro here, though. I think you probably had something planned out. Yeah, I mean, look, big stuff happening.

You've got to bring in big guns. This is definitely one of the, if you are not familiar with what this gentleman is doing on Twitter, it is definitely an account you need to be following, at GRPWins on Twitter. It's our friend, George Riley. However you want to go. Which GRPWins? It's like it's taking on a life of its own buddy uh welcome to the show uh ryan you're a smart guy you didn't try to pronounce my last name very good my last day it's pronounced just like it's spelled panagakis but uh grp wins is good and we got three chicago guys this is this is fun yeah they want to butcher it you know you deserve better than that for me.

So, and GRP wins its own thing at this point. If I butcher a pentagogist, it's not doing you any services. So, I want to remind folks, two episodes of Move Align each week. This is our game preview. A little bit more sides and totals. We're going to do some big picture, overarching NFL thoughts. We're going to look behind the curtain here at our guy GRP today, get a sense of what's going on with his process. If you want to get the prop show on Friday, come back here.

Again, YouTube, 444Bets in the YouTube channel, Move the Line, wherever you listen to podcasts. Myself, Connor, John Hyslop, getting a little bit more into the player prop side there as well. Be a pal, subscribe, rate and review, all those things, wherever you're consuming the show. Free stuff, again, supports us and goes a long way in helping us out.

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All right, let's get into it. I'm really excited, George. I mean, I know you've been around for a while. Obviously, you have an extensive history of betting, but I want to get a sense of how we got here. The videos are fantastic. They've taken off. I'm sure you've sensed that as well. More guest appearances, more spots, more people intrigued by the videos and stuff that you're putting out. How did we get here? What's your background in betting and how did this kind of, you know, the origin story of how you kind of landed in deciding,

hey, I want to kind of put myself out there a little bit more? Well, you know, we'll go way back for two minutes. For whatever reason... We got time. Yeah, exactly. You know, why gambling was my vice when I was 20? You know, who knows? You know, I never had the drinking problem, the drug problem,

all the others. Everyone's got a little niche and a little vice. And for whatever reason, mine was gambling. And thankfully, I was smart at it. The bad thing is I put a lot of time. And when I was in my early 20s, instead of opening a book and getting to be in school, I would go to the local libraries. And this is before computers. I would look up old data. I was, I started with NBA and NFL. I would literally look up old Chicago sometimes on a little microfilm. You couldn't put the hour, the hours I spent just putting down the data of the point spread

on like a Monday. And then the following Monday, the score, I would literally spent a month or two just to write down the years of data in both sports. And then I would analyze it. I always specialized back then the NBA and the NFL for whatever reason. I was never into the college football. And those were the two sports. And I was good at it.

But, you know, you're young. You have no money. So big deal. You're a good bettor. You're betting $100 a game. So, you know, how much are you making? You know, big deal so probably after about five years I kind of stopped for from the age of 25 to 50 I can probably count on my two hands how many games I bet which means yeah I just wasn't into

it mentally I wasn't into it at all I went into the brokerage industry and then um and I played a lot of poker I was out in California, you know, different, you guys will realize when you get older, different stages of your life, you're in different places. And that's, that's how it works. You know, every five years you're like a new person. And then I did a lot of poker 10 years ago and I've still done some poker. And then in 2018, May of 2018, the world changed when the Supreme court came with the ruling and they,

New Jersey was the key catalyst. They challenged the ruling of where, you know, only a couple states could have a monopoly on it like Nevada and a couple others had some real weird lottery stuff. Yep, passed. But the world changed in May of 2018. New Jersey, Governor Christie challenged it with the Supreme Court, and they won the ruling. And I knew it.

I said, this is going to explode. This sports dam is going to be big. So I kind of went in some old boxes and looked up some old data, and I updated all my data. And then I started, you know, I used Twitter to tweet my picks to be an honest guy. Hey, I can beat him. And I was tweeting my picks. You know, I had a couple hundred followers. Nobody cared about me.

Nobody knew who I was. And then I had a good year and then a bad year and then three four years ago I was literally documenting other handicappers promoting people and that was okay but it's funny when you document people you'll see 90% lose it's just it's tough to beat the number I mean it's really really tough. And then literally last year, almost by accident, instead of just tweeting my words, one of my nails started bleeding. I just started writing things, and my nails started bleeding, and I take a video of it, and then I put the video,

you know the world we're in now, and I post the video of my bleeding finger on my notebook, and that's kind of how it all started. And that was just a weird thing. And I'd make videos downstairs, and I'd make a video. And I could never figure out where to be in my room to make a video. And people were like, you know, what are you, in a Motel 6? You know, what are you on?

I was looking at the background. What's this guy doing? And it was completely by accident. You know, there's a lot of weirdos out there that are stalking everything someone's doing and it kind of took off last year and um you know i'm i'm into it i i think i'm a smart better and people love the notebook people love the people love uh when you're original and you have integrity and if i lose i lose and uh so that's where we're at right now you know it's just that's the industry we're in That's the industry we're all in right now I think there's really something to that Connor

I'll let you take it from here Is that Anytime it's one of those like the higher up You get in the totem pole the more your ass is exposed And that's been I think something that The GRP has experienced here in the last little bit But I also think like There is something completely

Endearing and genuine about this is just the honest, this is what I'm betting. I got slips, right? The notebook's taken on a life of its own. This is kind of how, when we started out this venture doing the betting thing at four before the integrity piece is paramount to us. We still outsource third-party tracking and post that's free. It's on every article. It's lives in our discord. Again, it's someone that doesn't work for the company. We outsource it because we knew we were entering a space where, you know, goalpost moves a lot in terms of integrity of, of betting. And I think it's something that we're reluctant to. And I

think it's something that GRP is really lean into into and i think probably why he's had a little bit of traction here for sure yeah i'm interested to hear was the so was the origin of the notebook uh from your days of writing down all the scores in the nba like when you were younger like is that how you like like that's how you got started like do you have any of those old notebooks still left from when you were like 25 or anything i don't know you know what right i had a couple of years of data, early twenties. And then of course, once you're 25, you get frustrated. Cause you know, cause you didn't, it didn't work out the way you thought it was going to work out.

And probably, you know, when I was in my mid late twenties, I, I literally probably threw everything out. But the reality is it's almost worthless now because things change now, you know, the game changes, you know, back then, you know, you guys may have not even been born back then. You know, who knows? But, you know, the home dogs, it was, you know, the home dogs were maybe 58%. Now they're 54. You know, things, now people are more sophisticated.

But like Monday Night Football, there was the old Monday Night Football system where, you know, the Monday Night Football, the home dog, you know, off a loss against a win. There was 20 years there. You could have hit 60%, 65% just on that. Now the home dogs don't get as many points. So just every five years is the sports game. Just like a poker room, if let's say you're a regular in a poker room,

every six months the poker room will change. It will change with people. And maybe people start check raising when they draw. Every six months the poker room changes. So things change. So what worked 30 years ago now is worth, you know, is close to irrelevant. And, you know, maybe the notebook is,

because instead of, I just like to write things down. So that, you know, that the notebook was kind of by accident, but now it's taken off a life of its own. Yeah, so spreadsheets, not your thing, not an option. No. No, because I have a computer. I know how to use the computer. But no, the whole spreadsheets and you can just push a button

and delete whatever you want. I got a notebook. I can never delete a losing write-down. I can never take it over there. That's a good point. It's scary, but true. Lives forever. So there's different iterations of you know notebooks portfolios uh things get shifted from one to the other uh at times and i know you always have them right you always share them but like

what there's a determination to making something like like where's the sam darnold's uh comeback player of the Year live now? There's been some pushback on, is that a viable ticket? Is he actually up for that? Where is he in the portfolios at this point? Because I know that those things can shift. Well, okay, there's two issues here. Number one is the question, which is very good.

Can Sam Darnold win the award? You know, we can, a lot of people say no. We, you know, to even argue about it is kind of silly. I made the bet. I admitted that, you know, I bet it here at Rivers Canby. I have a bet slip. You know, there's no secret about it. Now, there are some people that say it was a dumb bet,

that mathematically I can't win. That's debatable. I don't know what that answer is, but I've made the bet. So is there a chance that Rivers Canby in two months is going to say you had no chance to win? I'm going to give you your money back. I hope that happens. You know, there's some people that say no, some people that say yes. You know, it's a gray area.

Now, regarding where it is, I've written it down. Of course, it's in my notebook. Now, when you see my big portfolios every week i now have two which is a summary i have two of them now i have a summary of hard to win positions for example here here here's i have the sam darnold now on the bottom because i just don't want to think about it or argue about it every week with people someone thinks i can't win okay maybe you're right but so now then i have my other portfolio of things that adjust every week compared to who wins or loses.

So I kind of have two different little summaries of portfolios. That's just how I'm doing things. You know, look, I have a dummy bet. Buffalo, most losses for the year. Look, I bet $300. I have 175 to 1. Oh, sure. Once a week, someone

sends me a tweet and tells me how dumb I am, but hey, they've never made a dumb bet before. Give me a break. Yeah. We all make them all the time. I think last episode, usually at the top of the episode, we go through

the last couple weeks has been a good bet that we've made and a bad bet that we've made heading into the season that we've made uh heading into the season so um definitely fair to have some transparency there uh i i am in the camp that doesn't think donald can win at this point but uh i don't think it's uh a zero percent chance i think it's just like the voters have to go against what happened but i mean that wouldn't be the first time i think that there happened with that a little bit last year with the the whole joe incident and DeMar Hamlin. I thought you had the market cornered. All of a sudden, out of nowhere, Joe Flacco comes out. I mean, take us through that whole ride, because I think you were set to win a pretty handsome amount there, I think, without Joe

Flacco, right? Yes. Basically,, like almost Labor Day last year. I pounded Sam Darnold, 2,700. I'm sorry, Baker Mayfield, 2,700 at 75 to 1. I would have won over 200,000 if Baker Mayfield was Comeback Player of the Year. That was the start of the year. After week one, Tua had a great game. I put 3,000 on Tua at plus $800. He had a real good game.

And then he had a couple good months, and he was going down. So I was also positive there. Middle of the year, I did a perfect hedge on DeMar Hamlin. He was like minus $120. You know, he started out like minus $500. He was down to minus $120. I timed everything perfectly, like middle, late October. I put 3,000 on DeMar Hamlin.

I had these three perfect positions. I mean, I couldn't – I was in the catbird seat. Everything was perfect. I had it covered. And here we are, you know, whatever it was, Thanksgiving. What's his – Joe Flacco's eating Thanksgiving dinner and he gets a call by Coach Cleveland and what did they win? Like four of the last six games?

Something like that. And somehow, you know, if just DeMar Hamlin would have won Comeback Player of the Year, I would have won $3,000 on him instead of a lot. So I would have won a little bit of money. I mean, the whole thing was outrageous. So I lost all three of my bets,

all three of them, because Joe Flacco won the Comeback Player of the Year, and I made the video that also made me a little bit famous. I was furious because I was so close to making $200,000. If I did, I'd be so famous right now. You guys couldn't interview me right now. I'd be so famous.

It's true. We had to spend money to get you on. Exactly right. You have to pay me $5,000. Would you be moving to Florida, or would you be would you be moving to florida or would you just stick around what do you think i'm a i'm a southern i i'm i lived in southern california last so i would choose southern california but uh what can you do that's the way it goes no that's that's a tough one there's a few other things that like i think in the early stages maybe there's some adapting to markets or maybe changing some of these narratives,

a couple, you know, teams, not prices. It's been a big thing for you. I know there's discussions around like line shopping, and I know you've pushed back on that a little bit, your thoughts on CLV. Can you talk to me a little bit about those kind of, you know, early GRP stances in terms of, you know, how to bet teams, not prices? Right. Well, first of all, I am a firm believer you can go through any NFL weekend. Let's say there's 15 games.

13 of the 15, it literally doesn't matter what number you got, meaning if the number moved from 3 to 3.5 to 4, you were either on the right side of the game or you weren't. I mean, that's a fact. It is also a fact that one or two games or you weren't. I mean, that's a fact. It is also a fact that one or two games,

the number you get will determine a win or a loss. So, yes, I believe 100% there's nothing more important than being on the right side. The number is number two. I mean, that is a fact. It is also a fact the number you get will determine one or two of your bets every weekend. That's also a fact. And then people have this theory that that i don't care about i'm every bet at place i always check three

or four books for the best number i mean that's just common sense i do it all the time but the most important thing is what side are you at and people people forget that all the time and and that's also a fact that my point is right. I always try to get the best number. Closing line value. Again, if you take 1,000 bets and you go back in time, the ones that you were on the right side of the line move, yes, I believe that those have a higher percentage of winning because for whatever reason, the line moved a half a point a point your way.

So I'm not going to argue that point. Here's what I argue is when someone lays seven on a game and let's say the game closes at nine, okay? Right, they lay seven, it closes at nine, and the team wins by three and they win their bet. I mean, they lose their bet. But now they say, oh,

but I made a smart bet because the line closed at nine when I got seven. I think they're dead wrong. But they will argue with you that they made a smart bet. You see, that's my closing line argument. And people have this, they go nuts with this all day long. And I'm old school. There's people that whoever's got the winning ticket is the sharp.

And I, and I believe that. I think that most of what you said is very reasonable. I, cause I think a lot of what your quotes get taken out of. Um, I would argue that over that thousand bets that the person getting closing line value, even if they don't win, that it doesn't necessarily have to be as result oriented. Like, you know, obviously in the long run, you want that, like you agreed. So I think we can agree there on that end. Um, but I, one of my favorite videos that you just put out was the, the Dallas Cowboys, uh, Detroit lions one where, uh, you went on like a five to six minute rant about how if I think it was quote, if you don't have, if you bet the Cowboys this week, you don't

have it, you have no mojo. Um, where did that even come from? Like, are you just like, are you dancing on the graves of people who did better? Or did someone piss you off? Like, where did this come from? Well, you know what? That was, the game was over. It just came off the top of my head.

And I actually, and that's one of the few games, like I bet like three games all year. And that was, that's the second time this year I bet in Detroit. I was 100% correct. And again, I had my three things on my side. Detroit had an extra week's arrest. Last year, they got that bad flag. Remember with the offensive lineman? Scored a touchdown.

And they said that he didn't register. So Detroit was really pissed. Dallas has like three major injuries on defense. And, of course, it's easy to say, but I'm like, this game is easy. And, you know, half the times the games that you bet and you win, you're 100% correct. So, of course, you know, I wake up from my nap like, this game was so easy. So then I went on my rant and I had to insult everyone that's wrong.

And people love people. Again, the video just went viral. And people actually, people absolutely loved it. And it was a great video all-timer yeah my wife probably you know my family long day uh you know we get the early football games you know by the time you get to sunday night it's you know you've been plugged into football for a very long time thankfully i was able to look my wife square in the face and tell her I bet on the Lions. That made for a nice end cap.

I wanted to touch on that too. You mentioned in the middle of it, George, and I'm curious about taking data from old NBA games and writing stuff down. You've talked in the past, I think I've heard critiques about new age data discussions and handicapping games. You took a mid-game nap during or before that game. First of all, I'm jealous.

That's living the life. What's your process in terms of handicapping? If you're not a big data guy, are you going back and re-watching games? How are you forming really strong opinions to put dimes, times plus on games when we're napping in the middle of Sunday football? That's a good question.

The great thing nowadays, you can wake – sure, I'm up half the time, and if I don't take a nap at 10 in the morning, I might take it like I did on Sunday. I took a nap in the afternoon. But now you can wake up Monday, Tuesday. You look at your smartphone. You can just type in any game that took place over the weekend, and there's a 10-minute highlight.

It's all over. It's very easy to find. You go anywhere on YouTube. You type in Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, and there's a 10- to 12-minute video of every single game. And you can watch these videos, and it just gives you a little more information of what data you may have. And then you just,

you know, on Monday I'm watching, I'm watching Mike Greenberg and ESPN at 7am. I'm listening to stuff and watching stuff and you know, you're not going to watch every single game, every single one, but you can just get a feel of what's going on from a 10 minute video, which are good highlights of the game.

And you really get a feel for what's going on. Film grinder, Connor. I had no idea. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I know he wasn't deep in the spreadsheets,

but that makes sense. We also have a question here for monotone betting for future GRP releases. Is there a possible paid service on the horizon? It looks like a monotone is someone who I, I don't think he had the lions in his pocket. I don't think he bet the Cowboys either, but I think he would have loved to have, you know,

a sweat free winter. Uh, I would say, I don't know right now because there's two different things. There's props and there's, and there's picking games, you know, and number one,

I'll admit picking games is not easy. And in reality, I'm probably more of a 30 game a year guy than a 50 game. So, you know, 30 games, if you have a good year, you go, you go 18 and 12, you're up 4.8 units. You know, I would only have to be dealing with big bettors. And one, one thing I've learned, if the future is that it's hard to predict the future, I really don't know.

Five years from now, who knows, right? We're always evolving. In five years, we'll be different people. Earlier, you had a video fresh to death. You had the hat matching the sweatshirt, and then five hours later, you're a different guy with the polo on, so you never know.

Because I wanted to look good for this segment, I took a shower, I shaved, here I am, exactly. Look at this. wanted to look good for this segment. I took a shower, I shaved, here I am. Exactly. Look at this. Love it. Just for you guys. I appreciate it. You touched on there too, you know, sides and totals, sides in particular.

Very, very difficult. You've taken it up recently and I'm not sure if it was something this gentleman did, but you decided you wanted to track Adam Chernoff and his VEASAN spots. I'm not sure if these are like just VEASAN spots or, you know, Raz releases or what the specifics are. Was there something in from Adam's like handicapping that rubbed you the wrong way? Was there some sort of like you felt that it was like maybe disingenuous?

Like I'm, I'm just curious why Adam was on the receiving end of, again, unprecedented to get his own notebook and to be tracked. Again, no one's done that before. Bingo. You know what? I've never spoken to Adam. We've never spoken. We've probably never said anything negative to each other.

Right. He's on V. These are comments he makes on V. And he has a double segment every Friday afternoon. Follow the money. Mitch Moss, Pauly Howard. And I'll admit, I like Mitch and Pauly. I met him at that bash four, two months ago.

I asked each one of them, hey, Clint, do you want to have breakfast? I'll buy you breakfast. They both said no. So that's okay. You know what? Make sure. Maybe I like, you know what? I have no problem with V-Cent.

It's a good show. And, you know, the bottom line is, and here Adam is, now he's been on Colin Coward's. He was on six months ago. And I guess he's a spokesman with Raz. I know almost nothing about Raz. But I do hear some good things about him. So I'm like, you know what? This guy's on this show every Friday.

And I never hear him say, oh, you're this for the year. I never hear him talk about his record. I'm just like, so what's going on? So you can literally just go online. You can do, um, follow the money from, you know, the first Friday of the year. You can literally, it would only take you two hours to look up every segment, every comment he made

for this year. So all I did was look up every single segment. I documented everything he said. And so far for the year, So all I did was look up every single segment. I documented everything he said. And so far for the year, he's been a net loser. So I'm just going to keep documenting him every single Friday after he makes his comment, his segment, I tweet out everything he says.

So it's written in a notebook and we're going to see how he ends up. It's as simple as that. No. What's he afraid of? You can't be afraid of the reality. I think it's a choice, right? Like I think he's,

it's happening whether he wants to or not yeah and i can do this for you it's probably brought more publicity you know even that it's probably bought more publicity to the show so there's a pro and a con to what i'm doing there's probably some people at vsan that don't like it some people do but that's how you know a lot of things in life that's how they are yeah yeah i would i would say that i think obviously we believe in transparency i i have a hard time with the leans with tracking leans because grp doing content is hard so a lot of times they're going to ask you a question about 10 games or six games and people don't want like some wishy-washy bullshit answer like oh well maybe this oh well maybe that they

want hey if i had to play what am i playing and so he might not even be betting that because i know raz doesn't raz is positive in nfl i believe on sides and totals which is incredibly difficult like very very very hard um so i want to give credit to them i think adam does a good job i could i understand your standpoint of tracking him but i all i want to give credit to them. I think Adam does a good job. I understand your standpoint of tracking him, but all I want to say is that doing content is incredibly difficult. So that's my counter to your argument there, but I do respect that you're fighting the good fight for transparency. Right.

And it's funny. There's three weird terms, lean, couch change, and pizza money. So these people use these terms. Like, is that a pick? What have you decided? But I decided before Friday, because once in a while he used the term lean, other terms, and I just made a policy that I'm just going to count him as a pick, win or lose.

And, yes, he sounded very weak last Friday. Three times the first time ever he used the term lean three times. And, you know, I could just tell tell in the week before he was sick. You could just tell I've affected him mentally with stress. I just know I'm affecting him. That's life, man. You got to pick a winner.

I think lean's on a Friday. I'm with you there. That's tougher. We do this show on Wednesdays and have for years. You know, we don't even really have like the full injury report for everyone. So sometimes we'll do leans on a Wednesday because there could be some impactful injuries that would impact the spread or even our handicap in the game. So, you know, I am guilty for sure on a Wednesday of having leans more so than a bunch of really

hard stances. Now, again, like you want to have a hard stance sometimes on a Monday or a Sunday night when the lines pop back open. That's a different beast. So I'm with you. Friday leans, you know, we're friends with Adam. Maybe I'll advise to ditch the Friday leans, keep it moving, give some game analysis. That's a little bit harder.

Right. Well, no, he's good at, you know, he's got that three-minute spiel, and, you know, but there's a hundred, you know, give him credit, but I'm a bottom-line guy. Your spiel means nothing if you can't pick a winner at the end and we all know that but in this industry everyone does the spiel because they know it's so hard to beat the number and you know there's a hundred people that do it yeah a big spiel guy here yes any future notebook targets uh after adam from, from monotone. Big picture. No,

you know, of course a couple of people say, you know, document Kelly in Vegas, document Kelly. Well, you know what? I liked the Kelly in Vegas.

We all know she can't be the number. She'll probably admit it. I think she's cute. I give her, we all give Kelly the credit. I'm not going to, you know, I don't know how I wouldn't even know where she makes her. So I'm not going to do that. And who, who knows who the next going to, you know, I don't know how, I wouldn't even know where she makes her, so I'm not going to do that.

And who knows who the next person is going to be? I don't know. Yeah, we're trying to stay off the radar, Connor. But great question from Darren here. Speaking of leans, rollerball pen, fountain pen, or ballpoint pen, obviously a lot of ink on those pages. Do you have a go-to pen? And why aren't you getting some sort of sponsor deal with uh you know a three-ring binder uh pen company here at some point george needs to be

something you need to look at well here's i have this i don't know what you could this is like the new thing everyone this it's like this pilot g2 thing this is a very popular thing now you get about a dozen of them for 15 bucks and they laugh you know maybe you can write with for five or ten hours but it's very inky it's very you know it's not like it's not like the old big ballpoint pen so this is what i use and um you know this is just kind of blown up and you know who knows maybe um if maybe i'll get a notebook deal in the future who knows i see you guys got draft kings hey i probably make bets with draft kings more than any other book and i've got like eight grand with them right and they have a give them credit they got a lot of long good long-term props and um you know i can't complain you can go

to wrigley field make a cash bet whenever you want they oh that sports book at wrigley field of draft that's unbelievable that's it's awesome cars they're all the time. Yeah, I think I've been there. It's beautiful. I don't know, maybe 10, 15 times already this season, if not more. Big fan. They got a lot of – it's a cool sports book. Plus, yeah, I love the Jackson's props. Wish I could bet more on them. They started putting fantasy points, which have done pretty well.

I think I've hit 50%, 60% of those. The last couple weeks, been dropping them in our discord. So another shameless plug there, but yeah, definitely the best offerings and their new pick six product is wild. If you guys play a lot of props, you know, this is not even a designed ad read, but legitimately like I, I was talking with another guy and he won five grand on a $15 entry just by getting six out of six picks right last weekend, which is six out of six binary props is a ridiculous payout to get five grand right,

just because everyone else went under and no one knows what they're doing. So it's definitely worth trying out if you don't have it already. Yeah, unique payouts there for sure. Well, you saw who's got the girl who just got the DraftKings sponsorship, Walking Bats. Now she's DraftKings sponsorship, WalkingBets, now she's DraftKings. Oh, Taylor, yeah. Yeah, yeah.

What up? You know what? There you go. Imagine me documenting her pics. We won't even go there. George, I tell you what, buddy. If you start walking and writing in the notebook at the same time, those videos are going to take off, my man.

Those videos will do some serious numbers. A little harder in the Chicago winter as we get a little cooler out there. But, man, those videos would pop off. That's funny. What a world we're living. Noon and Nod, do you want to touch on a couple games? I know we have some more questions for GRP. We can probably hit on those at the end if you want to.

We can touch on maybe a game or two here and then roll through. Or what did you think? Yeah, I know we've got one position this week,orge we have a super bowl rematch we have the chiefs on the road uh against the niners here looks like we are basically uh pretty much across the board niners minus one and a half total 46 and a half 47 uh which matters quite a bit sitting around a key number that's one of your uh main, one of the newest additions to the notebook this week. What are your thoughts here on Chiefs Niners? Yeah, you know, real simple. I bet a thousand on San Francisco a couple days ago, and number one, I think it's a rematch. You know,

we all know, hey, both teams are great. The coaching at Kansas City is phenomenal. You know, I love Patrick Mahomes, but in reality, I don't think there's nothing special about his game this year. I mean, whatever number of interceptions he's already thrown, I think he should throw two or three more. I mean, he's gotten lucky a couple times. So bottom line, I have

$1,000 right now. I already bet on San Francisco. I bet on Monday. I got in the number one. Number one rematch, I think they're going to win. San Francisco's at home. And talent-wise, I could make the argument San Francisco's a little better, but Kansas City has great coaching.

So, hey, I bet the game. And just like I bet Detroit last week. And, you know, we'll see what happens. I've won a lot of games before. Is this the Detroit game of the week? Can I not make love to my wife if I bet Andy Reid off a bye? That's another thing they have

on the side. We're not going to go that far with it, but I bet San Francisco. That's all I could say. Connor, we're getting this one. It's going to be a good one. I think obviously there is that funny narrative that we talk about every time it comes up. There's just some pretty strong history of Andy Reid teams off of a buy. Uh, but again, that could be selection bias. What are your thoughts here in a pretty good matchup?

Yeah, I guess I would just say I'm very skeptical that the chiefs with like Juju Smith Schuster and cream hunt as their, you know, secondary receiver and starting running back. These guys were literal, like, I mean, corpses like left for dead basically, uh, pretty recently. I'm kind of skeptical that they're going to continue to play as well here, especially in tougher matchups. That being said, the Niners defense has been relatively average in most metrics. Um, maybe that's health. Maybe that's a variety of things. Um, they always seem to come together and end up being like a top fringe, top five defense right now. They're not necessarily playing like it uh in a couple of ways so um for me the game's just like a stay away just because i'm it's i think it'll be a fun game to watch without a position on it so that's that's not

something you can say about most games that uh in today's nfl but in on this one i think i'm happy to just honestly sit back and watch without any at least size or totals on it uh i may have some props well connor to develop your point the game I'm just going to, because I have not really watched the Vikings play all year, so I'm literally going to just watch because the Bears have the week off, so it'll be on local TV. So I can't wait just to watch Detroit and Minnesota. I'm just going to enjoy the game.

I want to figure out what these Vikings are doing because everyone's bragging about the defensive coordinator. I mean, you've got to give the Vikings credit. They're playing great. And I just can't wait to watch and enjoy the game and, you know, with nothing on it. And I'm looking forward to it a lot. Yeah, it's another good one.

We obviously have Vikings here coming off a bye, hosting the Lions. We're looking at here market-wise, two and a half on Minnesota, total 49 and a half, pretty much uh across the market again divisional foes they did this dance twice last year flores was there last year blitzed his face off and golf kind of carved him up uh in both of those games specifically when the blitz was brought um minnesota's doing stuff a little different this year they're running a lot of six-man fronts which i think is going to be an interesting way that they can defend this lions uh rushing offense which i think is something that just continues to be really hard to stop connor what are your thoughts on lions vikings

yeah it's like you go back to last year and you look at them and they were pretty middle of the road in like most metrics and they played well at times but we're i mean definitely beatable especially in the passing game this year they're like top three in virtually every metric they're playing. Awesome. And this came against good offenses. Like they're not playing some, some, you know, crap teams, like they were playing good teams and playing well. Um, so I worry about this lion's team a little bit here because we saw a lions go into the box early in the season in a pass heavy game script, Jared golf really struggled at times. Um, and, you know, through, you know, a game losing interception essentially down the stretch. Uh, and if they're not able to run the ball, that's what this is going to have to, And, you know, through, you know, a game losing interception essentially down the stretch. And if they're not able to run the ball, that's what this is going to have to, you know, end up

being. And then the other side of the ball here, I think Aiden Hutchinson, the loss of him is pretty impactful for this Lions team that when they got pressure, they were a pretty good defense. When they didn't get pressure, they were really bad, like really, really bad. I think it was like over an 80% completion rate allowed in this spot. So I just struggle with it. I think kind of like George, it's like, we're waiting. I'm excited to see it. I am interested. I would say mostly in the Vikings here,

we're seeing a little bit of line movement in this spot. It was up to two and a half earlier today, down to one and a half at a couple of spots. So I think that at one and a half, I think I was fine on the Vikings, but I'm probably not going to play anything here. Like too heavy. It gets, if you're a fan of the teaser, I think we're, you know, getting the lions out plus past the three past the seven makes a ton of sense. Again, a little higher total than you would like for, you know, a typical long teaser, but this lions team losing

by margin would surprise me a little bit too, though. I think you make a good point. The in Hutchinson stuff is, is impactful. They like to press play a little bit too, though I think you make a good point. The Ian Hutchinson stuff is impactful. They like to press, play a lot of press man. It just doesn't work against Justin Jefferson. If you go back and look at Justin Jefferson's career game logs against this iteration of Lions coaching staffs, this man-heavy press man, he's lit them up. He's got a bunch of like 150 180 plus he's got a 200 plus

yard game like he's cooked them a handful of times so that's the one thing that would make me nervous if i'm back in the lions gonna be an interesting matchup yeah i think i saw a note from richie bar that they played like a way higher rate of zone last time like it was like 19 percent uh man only where they're sitting around 40% normally, which can make a difference, but it didn't matter because Justin Jefferson is like amazing against both. So like, I don't even know if they're like, but obviously press man is a whole nother story.

That's can leave you exposed. So yeah. And here's the, here's how about this discussion for next year? You know, next year you're going to have JJ McCarthy. He's going to be office injury. And this Sam Darnold,

I've never been a big Sam Darnold fan, but he's playing well. You know, they're going to have the problem where they're going to have two, two quarterbacks. They's going to be off his injury. And this Sam Darnold, I've never been a big Sam Darnold fan, but he's playing well. They're going to have the problem where they're going to have two quarterbacks. They're going to have a good problem, two quarterbacks. And who knows what they're going to do because I'm not a big J.J. fan. And there's a lot of people that agree with me, and some people like him. We'll see. We'll see what happens.

It gets harder when you have a hindsight analysis that's pretty easy. If you move on from him, from Darnold, give it to JJ, that pressure on JJ gets a little bit heavier, a little bit earlier, because you moved on from Sam. So it is going to be something that's interesting. What is Darnold's contract? I don't know off the top of my head. You know what?

I honestly don't know. Did they just give him a one-year show me deal? That's a great question. I don't know. They did. He has a one-year show me deal? That's a great question. I don't know. They did. He has a one-year deal. If he's lucky, he just got a one-year deal, then he can go anywhere he wants next year.

I was dead wrong on Darnold, but I was dead right on Anthony Richardson. And I said these guys both stink, and Anthony Richardson stinks, but Darnold is playing well, so I'm one for one. I'm still holding out hope on Anthony Richardson, George. I hope I'm wrong, but, I mean, I hope you're wrong. Don't hold your breath because I'm telling you. No, he can't make a routine play. I mean, you can see it right away.

He doesn't have it. It's not going so well. It's not going well. He's Josh Allen. Remember Josh Allen's rookie year. But this guy's twice as worse. He doesn't have it. I'm just telling you.

Yeah, that's my hope is that it's Josh Allen. We get a little bit more, some reps. Allen's rookie year, but this guy's twice as worse. He doesn't have it. I'm just telling you. Yeah. That's my hope is that it's Josh Allen. We get a little bit more, some reps, got a good offensive play caller with Shane Steichen. We can unlock some stuff, but it's been a tough sledding so far. Right. I mean, that one interception against the Bears, it was absolutely horrendous. But anyway, what are you going to do?

The people really want to know about reptile conventions, George. Conventions in general. I mean, I know you're close proximity to the Stevenson Convention Center. Lots of weird stuff going in and out of there on a weekly basis. Furry conventions. Apparently reptile conventions. I went to a dinosaur convention there this summer. Do you frequent conventions? Is it specifically reptiles

that caught your attention here? I know the pancake fiasco caused a pause in the plans there, but people need to know more about this. Right. It was a freak thing. A week ago, for whatever reason,

I'm a snake guy. You know that from my videos in the summer. So I just googled reptile convention near Chicago. So you know that from my videos in the summer so i just googled reptile convention near chicago so the reality is every city in the country there's one or two you know randomly around the area so there just happened to be one last saturday last weekend in tinley park which is a suburb southwest of the city so yeah and me being a foodie and me being a snake guy i haven't been to a reptile convention in over 20 years so i'm like you know what it's a saturday do something different i'm going to go to the reptile convention so of course i have to plan my breakfast and i

have to plan my meals but i'm not a southwest side guy so right away i have to look for a cracker barrel and yes there was a cracker barrel in tinley park and i used to love their pecan pancakes so i'm like okay i'm gonna have breakfast there i'm gonna go to the reptile convention this is gonna be great so then i said you know what i at the front just the night before i said i'm gonna call up the cracker broke just make sure they still got pink pecan pancakes so i called them up and the girl said no we got rid of pecan pancakes years ago so you know i haven't had them in for years so then i decided not to go to the reptile convention because my breakfast got ruined.

And that was the end of my plan on Saturday. That was it. I believe you could still go to Walker Brothers and get some pecan pancakes. I don't know if that's on your list. You know what? There's one in Glenview. I'm glad you told me that. I'm going to have to look into that now.

In a past life, I was a Walker Brothers manager out here in the uh schaumburg area oh wow very very very long time ago uh solid 20 plus years ago uh my early restaurant days pre pre-pastable pre uh getting to sit here and talk uh sports betting with you guys but uh yeah pretty sure pink uh pecan pancakes are on the menu there is Is Walker Brothers still in Schaumburg? Yeah, it's Richard Walker. The Walker Brothers are still infighting. Richard spawned off, did some of his own things. There's a couple of Richard Walkers, which are part

of the Walker Brothers. But yeah, it's still over there in Schaumburg. They're somehow affiliated with the original Pancake House also. They have certain similar items. I don't know how that works. Yeah, so it's the same family. They argued over dad's money after he died

and then they kept the walk-in bar's name. Yeah, right. Right. Big old apple pancakes over there too. But people want to know, what's your favorite spot in the local Chicagoland area? Because we see it in a lot of different spots.

Jewish bakeries, you like a good breakfast, good sit down. What's your favorite go-to spot? Well, the place I go to, it's been there before. There's a place called Omega, which a lot of people in the Northwest, everyone's heard of. It's been there for over 40 years.

Five miles, kind of like northeast of O'Hare, and they're open 24 hours. In this day and age, there's probably maybe a half dozen placesHare, and they're open 24 hours. And in this day and age, there's probably, you know, maybe a half dozen places in the entire area that are open 24 hours. So sometimes if I wake up early, I'll go there, and I do like to go there at night for a meal. And then, yes, I love a good, you know, a good bagel.

I'm a big fan of that. And I'm kind of a fast food guy. I'm not like a gourmet steakhouse kind of guy. I think steakhouses are a little overrated. Everything's out of card. It's a joke. And I am Greek, so I enjoy a good Greek restaurant and stuff like that. People love the food.

Yeah. Oh, the ham off the bone. People go nuts when I use the ham off the bone. It just drives people crazy. Yeah. We have someone tuning in from Schaumburg now. Used to live in. It just drives people crazy. Yeah. We have someone tuning in from Schaumburg now. Used to live in Evanston. Love Walker Bros. Shout out Leonard.

Leonard knows there's an Omega Irving and Wise as well. She's probably familiar with the Walker Brothers and the Omegas. They're all over the place. Very Chicago suburb podcast. I think that's a different omega restaurant whatever but i heard there's another omega somewhere in the west suburbs i don't know

if it's still there or not yeah yeah uh people also really want to know about the secret formulas uh again i think the last time the secret formula was referenced was the jets london game that didn't go so well george i'm not sure if there was a different formula for that one um i obviously it's called a secret formula so you can't give us any of the information but uh is that something that you apply to your handicapping process every week uh correct i have a formula if i called it a system people would laugh at it because you know it was you know blackjack you knowada, yada. But it is my formula. My formula picks are 10 and 10 on the year.

You know, nothing to brag about. So there I am, 10 and 10, which is correct. I have a formula, which, of course, I'm not going to go into details. But it's similar to the old Monday night thing and, you know, team at home after a loss, piece of wind Monday night. Believe it or not, those things work. So, yes, I have a formula. We'll kind of leave it at that.

And it's 10 and 10. So I have nothing to brag about there. What can I say? GRP trends, Connor, coming in some of the old school stuff. Yeah. I feel like I remember you saying that you don't really bet them, right? You're just tracking them right now? Right.

It even says right there. The majority of them, I'm writing everything down in the formula, and I'm just kind of tracking them. But luckily, I bet Detroit twice, and they covered. I bet Detroit in week three. They were at Arizona. I bet $1,000 on them. And then I bet $1,000.

Excuse me. I bet $1,500 on Detroit in week three. And then I bet $1,000 on them. And then I bet 1,000 – excuse me, I bet 1,500 on Detroit in week three. And then I bet 1,000 last week. So I'm 2-0 on the games I bet. Love it. The Giants lost their star left tackle today. You went to the window and hammered the Giants to win the division. Did you do that at the same time beforehand?

Did you know? Or does it matter to you? You have a good feeling on the Giants as a nice little addition to the notebook here, the portfolio this week. Correct. Just a few hours ago, I put 200 on the Giants at 50-1 to win the division. I did not know the left tackle was out for the year, but I think I heard yesterday that he may have been hurt.

Is he out for the year? Did they say that? Out for the year. Yeah, let's break. Yeah. Unfortunately, as we all know, that's not good, but you'd be surprised in the NFL. The backups, you know, because there's only 32 teams, they're better than you realize. You know, we can all

talk about left tackle all we want. It's a little overrated, but I mean, no, it's important, but people kind of, it's not like it was 40 years ago when quarterbacks would drop back seven steps. It's a little different now, but I mean, no, it's important, but people kind of, it's not like it was 40 years ago when quarterbacks would drop back seven stops. It's a little different now. But you know what? The Giants were kind of my sleeper team before the year started.

What are they now, two and three? I think two and three. But the point is they're not playing that bad. I don't think Daniel Jones is as bad as people. You know, he won a road playoff game a year and a half ago. Hey, I'm getting 50-1. You know, crazier things have happened. You know, what can I? And they're in a weird

division. I mean, this Philly, they got no mojo whatsoever. They got no coach. Jalen Hurts is literally the last dozen games, he's done nothing. I mean, he's a broken man. So I'm telling you, anyone can win this division. That's the last thing on my sheet in the transition. Professional GRP transition there, Connor.

Jalen Hurts. I know you guys had a discussion the other day. Connor took a Jalen Hurts stand or position. Your floor, Connor. What do you got? So, to be fair, we talked about it on the show last week. I like Jordan Love MVP at 45-1. That's down to 20-1.

I also play Jalen Hurts at 30-1, which is still, I think 30 to one this week. Um, and my argument is not that these good, I don't agree. I don't disagree that he's like, awesome. He was two games away from winning MVP two years ago. This award mostly goes to teams that are,

you have to win like 12 plus games, essentially to even be in qualifying for MVP. And the Eagles are going to come close to winning 12 games, which you might think is crazy. I do not think it's crazy. Given the rest of their schedule, the rest of their schedule is incredibly easy. So if you're winning a lot of games,

you're going to be in contention at 30 to one. I don't think it's bad. If he plays better, got Lane Johnson back, AJ Brown's back. It's about the Smiths playing better. The defense honestly was what surprised me most about how bad it was. And then, obviously, Saquon Barkley's taking away some touchdowns,

running a little bit more. But again, a couple little hot stretch here is all it takes. This market is incredibly fluid. Do you have any MVP takes or anything in the pocket right now? I don't remember off the top of my head. Do you have any MVP notebook takes here? Oh, big time.

First of all, Connor, I heard you on BetQL yesterday morning. That was nice. You had a nice segment. Unfortunately, you did say Jalen Hurts. I totally disagree, but that's okay. I've been right and wrong before. Yes. MVP, I have two big time positions. I have

Jane Daniels. I put him on three weeks ago at 150-1. I walked over to the casino here, Rivers in Rosemont. No displeasance. Put $700 in cash on Jane Daniels at 150-1. So I win $105,000 if Jane Daniels wins. And then a week later, I bet $1,000 on Josh Allen at plus 450 to win the MVP. And he's right around, depending where you look,

he's around plus 450 right now. So I'm one position, I'm big time plus equity, one position I'm neutral. Josh Allen, my God, he's just, I'm a big Josh Allen fan. The guy's playing great. He's controlling the whole game. I mean, if you go to,

depending what sports book you go to, the favorite is still Mahomes, but that's because of his name. He's like plus whatever, 300. I to, the favorite is still Mahomes, but that's because of his name. He's like plus whatever, 300. I mean, I would, I don't, Mahomes is, he's just playing maybe above average. Nothing special.

This Josh Allen, he's playing so good this year. I mean, he's carrying this whole team. He doesn't throw picks anymore. I mean, this Josh, and I could get lucky with this Jane Daniels, but probably not. But this Josh Allen, he's just controlling. He's phenomenal. He's a great kid. Allen, he's just controlling. He's phenomenal. He's a great kid. Well, he also just got Amari Cooper, so that's going to help a little bit too.

Yeah. Maybe he's an average player. He's a little over. He's been traded three times. But the bottom line is, for Buffalo, they needed him. He'll be a good additional Buffalo. There's no doubt about it. Correct.

Yeah. I mean, when you compare him to who they cut, which is Marquezwell, the Scanling and who they're trotting out there right now, I mean, Keon Coleman can't separate from your mom, probably GRP. So it's, you know, it's pretty tough sledding out there at wide receiver.

No, for Buffalo, they needed him. And I think it's a good trade. And we'll see, you know, and I think Detroit should trade for defensive end, but you know,

that's, that's another subject, but you got to go for it when you can. Chris Papadopoulos in the chat, reminding you that you have one more. You had Derek Henry, long shot MVP. Well, Chris is a hundred percent correct. I think I bet a hundred dollars on him at like 150 to one, just a week ago, man, this Chris is keeping track of what I'm doing.

You're getting a notebook on you. He's dragging you. No, it's in the notebook. He's right. He's 100% correct. Right here. There it is. Derek Henry. Monday, October 7th. Two days ago. About $100 to $150 week. Doesn't lie. No, it doesn't lie. Zach, you're right. Sometimes I wish I could delete things I wrote down. Like

Minnesota, under seven wins for 2,000. Can I get my money back? Can I get back $100 on that? Yeah. Not a terrible position pre-flop with what we thought was going to happen in that division, but yeah, dead on arrival by the time October rolled around, which is probably not what you were thinking.

Unbelievable. Tough game. I got a hot take here for this week to float by you guys real quick. One that I think Noonan, you'll like. GRP, I don't know if you'll like this, but I think that the Patriots win outright against Jacksonville in London. Hear me out. So Jags secondary has been absolute, you know,

absolute trash. Drake may force the push the ball downfield. He, he showed more in that one game than Jacoby percentage showed all season. Like he looked not necessarily good in a play to play basis, but he had some highlights and that's all you might need against this Jags defense here. And then, um, I don't know, I'm, I'm a little bit skeptical of this jags offense a little bit as well too so um i i mean six point dogs like i don't know five and a half point dogs i think it's kind of they're a little frisky noon i know that's music to your ears is a big patriots guy i'm we haven't talked about drake may since then i probably should have shot you a text because he threw a couple of a nice dimes there i mean they're they were down by like, you know, 20 points. Yeah.

And obviously, I mean, I'm bitter that my Jags, to start 0-5 ticket, didn't get home. That was one of my favorite preseason looks, and the Colts took that away from me, which is also pretty frustrating. But we don't have a lot of precedent. Last year was the first year that the Jags did this thing where they stayed in London for the second game of the back-to-back London games, and they absolutely boat raced the Bills in that spot.

Again, I don't want to make a handicapping call off of one situational thing, but the Jags having to have that extra week in London when the Patriots, I don't know, Thursday night, Friday morning, I think they're traveling. It's obviously not as long of a flight from you know uh boston uh out to london but still five and a half is probably the right side uh taking the points there uh where you had on that uh grp uh you know what i mean i i i'm totally neutral i agree with everything you guys said i mean in, in the end, it's just a football game. The spread's five and a half or six. New England, they still have a decent defense. They have, you know,

no wide receivers, no offensive line. But yes, this quarterback, this Drake May, this guy's a player. He threw three touchdown passes. And just by accident, I happened to watch New England play in a preseason game back in August. And you can just tell by watching.

This Drake, this guy's a player. There's no denying it. So now you have the first three guys picked, quarterbacks picked in the draft. I mean, these guys can play. There's no question about it. And Jacksonville might quit for their coach. And I hope you're dead wrong because I have New England under 5.5 wins. And I got one of my weird top two bets. I have Jacksonville and Houston.

I need them to come in both top two and I win some money. So I hope you're wrong, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if New England wins and Jacksonville loses. You know, look at the spread. I'll tell you half the story right there. Big position on the board for GRP this week. Seems like that Eagles-Giants game, right, based off of the equity of your future.

That Giants ticket gets a little bit more interesting if they go ahead and take care of business against the Eagles here this week, getting three. Any thoughts? When you have a position like that, will you leverage the game straight up to try to double down, or will you reevaluate and see where your position is after the game plays out? On that note, first of all, every position is technically independent. So, for example, yes, I just bet today in the Giants. I got

50 to 1. And again, I always check the number before I make a bet. But if you look at my list, you know, two months ago before the year started, I bet in Philadelphia also to win the division. So, in reality, I have two competing positions. Whatever happens, happens. Individually, I like 50-1 on the Giants, and I have Philly here to win the division. What number did I get? Let me look right here.

Eagles to win the divisions. Here we go. I bet $1,000. I had to lay the divisions. Here we go. I bet $1,000. I had to lay $130. So right now, I wish they don't have the bet because the Eagles don't look that good and Washington does. But when you place bets two months ago, you just can't delete

bets. I live in the real world. I write bets down. This is the way it goes. So I have a competing position on the game. But there's a lot of games I have competing positions. That's just how it goes. Yeah.

That's all I got, Conrad. Anything else? It was your favorite bet on the board was the Pats. I love it. Week seven. Pats is your favorite play on the board. I think there was a small, like an overreaction to the Jets, Devonta Adams news.

I think long-term he's obviously very impactful for them, but this total moved like two and a half points, two points in some spots, just off of a news of a guy getting traded. Like, I mean, he'll be active. He's going to play, but like, is he really going to be like a 100% snap guy right off the bat?

Like he's probably going to be, in my opinion, probably like a 60, 70% snap guy, short yardage, red zone, like maybe a chain mover, but I don't know if the total should have moved that much to be honest. Um, so I thought that was a little bit of a reaction in a game that I think should be outrageously bad. Uh, if DJ Reed plays, I'm going to be on every Russell Wilson under possible. Um, you know, it's, I mean, it might not even matter because I'm, you know, they, they run like a lot of heavier sets.

And so Pickens will probably get sauce most of the time anyways. But like, I mean, as soon as they pulled DJ or DJ Reed missed the game, like Keon Coleman saw two receptions right off the rip. And the guy played, was playing like seven or eight yards off of Keon Coleman, which should tell you everything you need to know about how bad they're, you know, third string or whatever outside corner is. that was not good well tell you what you get you know you guys talk about the jets and look look what i did yesterday i placed the bet with draft kings uh after after they acquired the word so i bet i tweeted out yesterday new york jets over eight and a half wins about a

thousand with draft kings i'm plus 130 So they can just win nine games, you know, not win the division, not go to the playoffs. And I still win my bet. I like my bet. They're two and four. If you look at their schedule,

it's not that tough of a schedule. So I needed them to go. What does sub I need them to win to go like seven and four, the rest of the year. And, you know, yes, Aaron Rogers is not what he used to be. We all know that as Bears fans. But obviously, I bet, I think if they go seven and four,

and I get plus 130, and I got this from DraftKings yesterday. So we'll see what happens. I like that angle, to be honest. I mean, their schedule is soft. I think having the outs where you just go over instead of having to need them to win the division or make the playoffs is probably a smart way to do it. Yeah, I don't think, again,

I don't think they're as bad as they've looked. They've got a bunch of primetime games too. So when you kind of shit the bed in an island, that I think is magnified a little bit. People overreact to that a little bit. And even the London game, it's an island game. So yeah, I mean, I don't hate that at all. We touched on that in the preseason, Connor.

If the Jets show a pulse early, it could be a little sneaky late. So not a bad look. Yeah, I mean, we got Steelers, Pats, Cardinals, Colts, Jags, Dolphins twice, Rams, and Seahawks all still left on the schedule. Yeah, they can easily go 7-4. Easy. I mean, that's not, you know. I love the optimism.

Yeah. I mean, if it was Aaron Rodgers five years ago, I mean, they'd go 9-2. You know, we all know. I mean, let's be honest. From 2010 to 2020, I mean, Aaron Rodgers, he was so good. It was, you know, Brady was one. Rodgers was two.

That man was, you know, as Stephen A would say, that was a bad man. He could play. We all know that. Yeah, I think he was. I think the Chargers, less than three, is worth a look. I've been out on the Cardinals for a while. It's the nightcap on Monday night. We got another doubleheader on Monday night.

Arizona might be without Marvin Harrison Jr., who really hasn't shown a pulse anyway. Defense is pretty terrible, also beat up. I think it's just a really well-coached Chargers team who's going to be able to kind of dictate whatever they want to do there. So Chargers laying less than three would be one of my favorite looks of the week. Normally I would agree with you, but normally I would take the Cardinals, but you have to factor in this Harbaugh.

He is such a good coach. I mean, the guy, you know what, no matter where he goes, he wins. He makes a tough team. He knows what he's doing. And I, and I hate to bet against the guy. So, you know, I would go your way. Yeah. I was thinking about our preseason like episode noon and like the analysis could have just been, i don't know how they're going to do it but they're going to find a way to get it done and win games and like that probably would have been appropriate for what we've seen so far um because their defense is

playing significantly better despite not really having many on-field significant improvements um and and they've moved the ball i mean not great but like herbert's been kind of injured beat up their missed to their tackles. Like, I don't know. I'm, I'm impressed. Like they're going to be,

they're going to be a frisky team in basically all game scenarios, in my opinion, going forward. I at least have an identity. They have an identity. They can run the football. Like that offensive line is strong and can dictate pace and tempo. And I think they're able to do that against pretty bad Cardinals front seven.

It might be without kids here, white, their, you know, main linebacker here. So that's just kind of where I don't see the Cardinals front seven. It might be without Kezier White, their main linebacker here. So that's just kind of where I don't see the Cardinals having an answer for it there too. And Herbert has to be a secondary piece. That kind of works for them.

So, yeah, I like the Chargers. This Herbert, he's going to be like a Jared Goff. He's just going to make 20 passes a game, just get to complete 15 of them. And, you know, I mean, Jared Goff, like his situation, he's in a nice spot. He never makes a special play. You know, there's no YouTube plays, as they say. But Herbert's going to do the same thing. He's just going to have to complete 15 out of 20 passes,

and that's the game. That's it. Could be enough against the Cardinals, I think. Right. I'm going to chase the dragon a little bit on your Monday night watch, because that's the one to go and get. Alright, GRP, that wraps us up, buddy. I appreciate your time very much. Tell

everyone where they can continue to find you and all your stuff, and watch along. Guys, it was a lot of fun. Let's do it when the playoffs start in two and a half months. If you guys are ever at Rivers Casino, let me know. We'll two and a half months. And, um, you know, or if you ever, if you guys were ever at rivers casino, let me know.

We'll meet for a beer. And, uh, yeah, all you guys listen, uh, GRP wins. I'm just on Twitter.

Uh, G R P wins. W I N S on Twitter. Get those videos. Cannot, uh, cannot miss those in integrity, man of integrity,

sheets of integrity, no books of integrity. Uh, it doesn't get better than that Reminder, subscribe before you take off 4 for 4 bets on the YouTube channel Move the line wherever you listen to podcasts We'll be back on Friday 3pm Eastern with High Slop to talk props

For week 7 for Connor and GRP I'm Ryan, we'll see you all next time Thanks everybody