Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 7 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions | Chiefs, Travis Kelce & More!

Episode Date: October 18, 2023

Welcome to the ULTIMATE Week 7 NFL Betting Guide! Dive deep into expert analyses, top picks, and predictions for the week. We're highlighting the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, spotlighting standout players like Justin Herbert and Travis Kelce, and breaking down the most favorable odds. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just getting started, this guide provides valuable insights for Week 7 NFL matchups. Don't place your bets without diving into our sports betting analysis and finding out which NFL picks we love this week!CHAPTERS:0:00 Intro10:31 Lions vs. Ravens Week 7 NFL Best Bets17:19 Falcons vs. Buccaneers Week 7 NFL Best Bets25:05 Chargers vs. Chiefs Week 7 NFL Best Bets32:45 Dolphins vs. Eagles Week 7 NFL Best Bets40:24 49ers vs. Vikings Week 7 NFL Best Bets47:13 More Week 7 NFL Best Bets54:57 OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to the Moodle Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Unick, joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen, Sharp Clark. Talking week six, week seven. Gosh, it's week seven already. Week seven, NFL size and totals. It's unbelievable. I don't have a ridiculous hat on today, so I feel really energized to talk football today. I'm not distracted at all. Clark, you do not have a ridiculous hat on as well. You can pull it off. I cannot, as we found out last week. Also means if you have that hat on, it means we're coming off of a nice winning week in week six. How are we doing? Yeah, I feel bad because it wasn't a winning week on the bets we gave out.

Thanks to those halftime bets not going so well. But I made money myself, so I got to wear the hat. I respect that. No problem at all there. Connor, joining us from parts unknown. Where are you today, buddy? Yeah, I'm out in California celebrating my dad's birthday this week. So, you know, working during the day, getting to hang out, eat some good food at night.

The weather here, I mean, immaculate. It's like cold and rainy in Chicago, left, and then now I'm feeling good. I get to work outside most of the day. But yeah, the studio setup here is not optimal, but we're rolling with it. Yeah, look and sound good. That's all that matters. We'll live vicariously through you because it is gross here, though.

It's okay. We got a little bit of sun coming out today. Last couple of days have been bad, and the next couple are going to be bad as well. So you're not missing anything here as usual at this time of year in Chicago. So reminder, three of us are going to be here every Wednesday at 4 p.m. Eastern on the 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. You should be able to find the podcast in your feeds on Wednesday evening. Subscribe either way, YouTube or podcast. So you don't miss a show. We really appreciate

supporting the free content by subscribing to either the show or the podcast goes a long way in helping us bring you the best content and tools in the industry. Taking a second to do that. We really appreciate it. Thumbs up here in the video, all those things. If you're on YouTube with us, jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite look on the board is for week seven. We will get to some of those if we have time here at the end of the show. Excited for, I can't believe we're already here. We're already in week seven. We have six weeks down of information.

I feel it starts to get really good about the sample sizes of stuff that we have. Yeah, some stuff I want to talk to you guys about here too. I want to remind you as well, Friday, Move the Line Prop Drop Show. That's every Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern on both the YouTube Bets, 444 Bets youtube channel and

then the podcast feed as well that's connor myself john hyslop talking props uh here we're gonna be more sides in total a great time to scoop up the betting stuff as well we're already discounted because we are this far into the season betting subscription gets you access to all that we do on four for four we got nba starting in a week you want nba bets from us and our team uh you want the betting subscription We're still grinding season long. Any of those things, DFS, articles, tools, rankings, projections, all that stuff, along with access to the Discord, where the three of us push out all of our official plays.

You want to take advantage of that too. If you play on any of the Pick'em sites, PrizePicks, Underdog, VividPicks, we have channels there as well. Take advantage of our promo code here. What do we have right now? We got PropDrop as a promo code, Connor. We got, what's our YouTube promo code? We got so many.

I'm not sure we get them all. Just YouTube, all caps, 25% off. That's probably the one to go to for, you know, produce your sale and the YouTube team has been crushing it all year. Yeah, promo code YouTube, 25% off of the already discounted price uh that's going to take advantage of again at this point you're paying peanuts uh for again another 14 weeks of this

we're being you know we go all the way through the super bowl grinding props uh sides and then you get all the nba stuff as well so check that out promo code youtube44.com slash plans uh teasers week clark i want to talk to you about this i messaged you guys last week a little bit when i was writing my weekly lookaheads article and kind of made note this board looked like it was loaded with potential teaser likes uh and you fired on one today for subscribers can you talk teasers in general um when you're considering a teaser, aside from the standard handicap, which again is a massive part of it and should probably be the primary part of it, what are you looking for? Are you looking for, some people might be familiar with the basic

Wong teaser rules. You're looking at some certain things like that. Is that something that's primary for you? Or when you're looking to kind of find a viable teaser, like what are you looking for? Yeah, I think the easiest way to do it is to look for Wong teasers. That's, you know, one and a half to two and a half point underdogs moving up to seven and a half to eight and a half or the other way around seven and a half to eight and a half point favorites moving down because you're just capturing the most amount of value per point that you're moving. You know, every teaser is not every teaser, but using a six point teaser as a standard, you're always getting six points of value, but not, not all six points that created equal. So that's the easiest way to do it. But what I look at in particular is, you know, how do I view

the game at the current line? Right. So like, if I, if I like a seven and a half point favorite against the spread, then I probably really like that teaser. Like, you know, cause I'm not only am I getting the six points of value through the seven and the three and the six and the spread, then I probably really like that teaser leg, you know, because I'm not only am I getting the six points of value through the seven and three, and the six and four, I'm also if I make it say nine and a half, I'm also getting a couple extra points of bonus value in that bet. So that's, that's the time that I might look to take a teaser. And then the third thing to look at is specific matchups, right teams play differently in different game scripts and match up in different ways. So you can kind of project out, you know, there's a lot of variance that happens within a football game.

And so you kind of have to play out the different scenarios of what happens, say in the first half of the game and how that would lead to different ranges of outcomes of scores in the second half. And so some matchups will lead to a higher concentration of scores within that teaser range. And that's kind of the third thing I look at when I'm making teasers. Yeah, the math guys will tell you to be very specific of what you're doing here. You know, in terms of like, and I know teasing through zero, right? Because you're teasing through zero to your point, you're losing outcomes and, you know,

outs basically because games aren't ending, you know, at a half zero minus a half. Are there instances in which you will do that if that happens to make sense to your other point, if you have, say the handicap, so you like a team, you know, that minus two and a half, all of a sudden, now you're getting them plus three and a half. Again, that's bad math. But are there scenarios where, hey, they're not all created equal? are you open to that if that makes sense to your handicap yeah i'm open to it um i mean the other thing you have to check is prices on alternate spreads and money lines and make sure that you're actually getting the best value and attacking that play but i'm not against anything outright and i actually find it fun to kind of go against the the rules like it's just kind of i know you do in my nature um there was

one time i've teased through zero one time in the last three years and it, and the leg did hit. So, you know, I, one game sample size, whatever,

but it's very, very, very rare. Connor, what are your thoughts on teasers? I know it's not a big part of your portfolio typically, you know, but any thoughts to expand on anything that,

that Clark had there? I think he summed up most of it. Well, I will play some Wongs here and there, especially if I have a really strong take on, you know, a certain side. But any thoughts to expand on anything that Clark had there? I think he summed up most of it well. I will play some wonks here and there, especially if I have a really strong take on a certain side. Unfortunately, one of those strong takes was the Niners last week, so that didn't go as well as it should have. I also found in my drafting slip, I don't know what was going on.

I think it was because I was traveling, so I was trying to get as much action out on the domestic things as possible before I go to a state where I can't't bet i found a three-leg sweetheart teaser somehow and i don't remember placing that but it won so uh and i did end up getting teased through the zero like again you know definitely zero out of ten recommend doing a sweetheart teaser because i don't think the math ever maths there but uh i did it and i won so that was kind of a fun little surprise to wake up to uh but i i don't don't recall doing it but it's like niners bills and someone else where you get like all the

way through the you know i mean it was like 13 points so all right click do you do you take into consideration like the game state as well so like when i think about we'll think about a couple teams this week where we have say the uh the Falcons and the Bucs game. Total is 38 and change or whatever. Versus, say, the Dolphins and the Eagles. We've seen the Dolphins and the Eagles. Total is 52. We've seen both clubs win by margin, where that makes you a little bit nervous. Are you, are you still open to it when there's teams

that can win by margin or do you prefer to find options when the game totals a little bit lower? I definitely factored in, but I don't, I don't use game totals because it depends on how that team is made up in terms of what they do in offense and defense. Um, I actually tend to think in general, higher totals are better for teasers. I, I think you hear a lot of people say the opposite and i don't think that's backed up by the math i i i've yet to see someone prove it using the math it doesn't mean that it's not out there um but in my experience like when you're dealing with teaser legs especially ones where you're moving up from under three to over seven

you want to be in games that feature good offenses because those are the types of games where if there's a bunch of scores on one side, you have more faith in the under in the team that's losing to get within that number late. Whereas like we talked bucks Falcons, this, you know,

that's totals 38. If one team goes up big, like, do you really want to be relying on Desmond Ritter or Baker Mayfield to get that team within the, you know, within the eight and a half? Like I don't,

that's a teaser spot that I'm actually avoiding because i don't trust uh desmond ritter in this case because they're the two and a half point underdog um i don't trust him in that type of game flow to be the quarterback that delivers that comeback interesting yeah that's a good good point an interesting topic i've seen a lot kind of thought we were going to get there this week and again some some have moved a little bit and aren't necessarily in teaser, ideal teaser range. But I thought we would see a lot of discussions in the here, best games on the board for Week 7. We will start with the Lions and the Ravens. They're in Baltimore. Baltimore pretty much, let me make sure here,

we're still at three for the most part across the board. And our total in Fandle, 42.5. Mostly 42s everywhere else. So you can shop that around a little bit. Three straight on the road for Baltimore. Good for them to be home for the first time since week three. Took care of the Titans last week, despite settling for field goal after field goal. Typically not a recipe for success and likely won't be enough to get it done here against Detroit.

This is back-to-back on the road for the Lions. Took care of business last week against Tampa Bay. I think it's safe to say we all expected pretty good things from these clubs coming into the season. I think we all thought the expectations at least would be that the offenses would carry them. Both offenses have been fine. They're among the top half of the league. Lions a little bit more consistent.

Defenses have really dictated the early season success for both of these clubs, Connor. I'll let you get started here with Lions-Ravens. This is an interesting spot here and one that I'm interested in fading The Ravens especially, their defense here We've seen them so far, especially in the passing game They've played against Tennessee, Houston, Pittsburgh Dorian Thompson, Robinson

You know, like Cleveland team And injured Joe Burrow and then Gardner Minshew They've allowed only over 5.5 yards per attempt To just Kenny Pickett And now they're getting a Lions offense that I think is significantly better Than basically every iteration of every team That they've played so far. And so I think in this spot, it's could be a good spot, you know, I think for the Lions passing game potentially. Now, I think that the Ravens defense is probably good. Again, it's one of those things where I

don't want to say that they're bad, but they're definitely, I would say almost certainly not as good as the numbers suggest here. And then on the other side of the ball, I have some concerns, you know, about this Ravens passing game. Lamar, you know, one of the most pressure dependent quarterbacks in the league right now. And the Lions this season are doing a really good job of getting pressure without blitzing. 36.9% of the time getting pressure without blitzing, which is eighth in the league. And they're not blitzing as much as they were last year because they don't have to. So I think that could be a factor in this one specifically. I think we're looking at Lions against the spread here is probably my favorite look. But, you know, there's some other good matchups for the Ravens offense,

but I'm just not really sure how they're consistently moving the ball here. Because, I mean, Lamar's been a roller coaster. They somehow blew a lead. I mean, they should have won that game by, I don't know, 30. I mean, like I thought it was like crazy that they blew that game. So, yeah, that's probably my take here. Yeah. I can't keep settling for field goals.

Typically, you know, have a lot of success. It worked last week, but Clark, what are your thoughts on this matchup? It's an interesting one. It is. I love, I love a matchup like this. I feel like there's, there's strong opinions on both sides and a lot of market support on both sides, which I love playing these games. You can make a case that either defense is completely overrated in their metrics, right? The Ravens angle is they've played a bunch

of backup quarterbacks. So, you know, how can you really, how good can this Ravens defense really be based on their numbers against, I think three backup quarterbacks now, CJ Stroud in his first ever game. And, you know, even last week, Tannehill went out halfway through the game and was replaced by Malik Willis. There's no good. Um, whereas the lions defense has played a bunch of bad teams, right? They're not backup quarterbacks, but they're, you know, the bucks, the Falcons, the, the Seahawks actually played well against them.

That was the one team that really played well against them on offense. Um, and so, you know, the Panthers are, has their resume really been impressive. But what I love about the Lions defense is that with, because they haven't been playing backup quarterbacks, you can compare the offensive performances by the teams that played against them based on their season averages. And in every case, except for Seattle, every offense has played significantly below their season average when playing the Lions. And a lot of people will say like, well, you know, Baker Mayfield missed some throws and, you know, there were a bunch of drops in the Chiefs game and Patrick Mahomes, but like the Lions forced those things to happen. They're making it difficult for opponents

to make throws. And so I don't think you can just chalk that up to variance. I think this Lions defense is playing really, really well. And in this matchup in particular, they struggled in the past with sort of running quarterbacks because they've played a very heavy man blitz heavy approach on defense. And that leads to a lot of, you know, running quarterbacks getting outside contain and making huge plays on the run. But their defensive scheme is so entirely different this year. They've been playing a massive amount of zone and not blitzing like, like Connor said. So I think it's going to be a very different experience for Lamar Jackson against a very tough defense. There's always concerns when Joe Goff is playing in potential elements, but my numbers, my simulations make this about Ravens minus one and a half

as a median outcome. Once the money pushed it up to plus three, for me, it's a play on the Lions at plus three. Simulations. That doesn't sound pretty. That's not very vibey. Oh, yeah. I like vibes. Turns out I use more than vibes. Okay. Well, all right. Simulations. We'll roll with it, I guess. Yeah. I mean, so we, you know, we're again, this is where we were last week on a Wednesday afternoon trying to forecast

weather ahead of time and it gets a little dicey. It looks like we should have a little bit of weather issue again on the east coast there could be some rain there could be some wind that was not really a concern for jerry goff last week in tampa bay um there was a little bit of wind but not much now we get into a spot where maybe there's a little bit of wet ball and uh some wind here for jerry goff that could be part of it because i think it really does come down to who's able to throw the ball really well here. When you kind of look at these, both these clubs want to run the ball, their second and third and rush rate on the season is very much part of their

identity. And I think really comes down to, is it golf in the pocket or is it something that we can get Lamar to? And they, you know, they're at least healthy, like they've been really struggling with keeping all these receivers. We talked about this,

like all of a sudden all this depth in the passing game and the receivers Lamar's never played with the depth and the all this depth in the passing game and the receivers. Lamar's never played with the depth in the receiving core like he has this season. We just haven't had him healthy. They finally kind of are. Maybe they can find a groove here with some injuries too. Obviously, David Montgomery looks like he's going to be out. Jameer Gibbs, probably the main beneficiary from that.

Last time in the spot, we thought he'd be incorporated heavily in the passing game, and they just ran him off guard all game so interesting to see what happens there a couple of safeties on both sides which i think are impactful looks like marcus williams probably out for the ravens we're still waiting on brian branches practice report and see how that trends on the lion side um interesting game i want to have a little bit more idea of the health of both clubs and then see where the weather is for real. But I think it's an important game for both of these clubs. And it could be a little bit of coming back from London hangover too. I don't know if that's a real thing. Didn't seem to be a thing for the Jags last week. They looked pretty good, but

I want a little bit more information. But I think it's going to be one of the most important games of the weekend in terms of where we see the teams moving forward. This could be a big win for the Lions to propel them uh make us feel like maybe they're a little bit more legit than they really are so gonna be a good one all right next atlanta is on the road in tampa bay big divisional game bucks to an app point home favorites here total on fan duel 30 and a half 38s in the market as well um shop around depending on what you want to do this division is is absolutely terrible i we tried i think maybe there's a little bit of optimism i think it's just a quarterback play i just am not a believer in any of them i cannot wait to bet

against whichever one of these clubs is hosting a home game in the divisional or wildcard round i just don't think they're very good um this is week six. I'm sorry, week seven. This has pretty significant playoff ramifications with the winner here. According to PFF's playoff predictor, these clubs have the most at stake in terms of their playoff chances. It swings drastically either way with a winner or loss in terms of what's going to happen with these clubs. Again, the Saints are in the mix. The Panthers have removed themselves from the conversation, but again,

all three of these teams are, are very much viable for winning this division. Clark allegedly get started here. I've already talked about not having a ton of faith in Desmond Ritter in terms of a teaser leg, although I do think the Falcons are an interesting teaser, like here at this point, what are your thoughts on Falcons bucks?

Yeah. Yeah. From a, from a game flow perspective, I'm skeptical, but you know, I do think that the line is a little bit high. I make it closer to pick them. I'm at round 1.1 for Tampa Bay.

But that's not enough for me to play it, especially with uncertainty at key positions, namely quarterback for Atlanta. He's playing on the road. We've seen already, even though it's a young career, he does have some pretty significant home road splits. I think getting Ritter uncomfortable is how you disrupt this offense and also stopping the run, both of which the Bucs will do

because they have a pretty decent run defense and they love to blitz. It's just not a situation that I want to get involved in on the Falcons, even though, gun to my head, I have to pick a side. I'd probably tease the Falcons up, like you said. What I do like in this game is the under, um, although it's come down a bit, I, I, you know, 38 and a half is, is sort of borderline play. Um, I still think there's value there though, because these, these teams are so dominated by their defense and, and, and they both want to run the ball. They both probably will have some failures running the ball because both defenses are good.

And that's going to lead to a lot of third and longs for quarterbacks who are inconsistent on third and longs. So what we're going to see is like a three and out here, a first down or two first downs gained on this drive, and then a punt. It's going to be a field position battle. This isn't the type of game where I see a lot of explosive plays on either side of the ball.

And I think the way that, you know, defenses have been playing in 2023 has led to a lot of unders because of this style of play. And I think that's no exception here. I think even though the total looks like it's super low, I don't think it's low enough. I would play all the way down to 38. Once you get under 38, I think it's a little too dicey. Connor, where are you at in this matchup? Yeah, if you remember back to last week's show, we talked about how Baker Mayfield under pressure was one of the best quarterbacks in the league so far this season. And then this last week that did not prove to be true.

Completed his five, 12 passes, 4.4 yards per attempt when pressured last week. So I think regressing a little bit to his career mean, because, you know, over the course of his career, he has not been very good under pressure. So that made a lot of sense but in this spot here it's interesting and one of the things that i saw was that both teams like rush defense metrics i think are a little bit overrated so right now atlanta first and run the epa but just 11th in success rate uh tampa bay top three and run the epa but just 18th in success rate so it's one of those things where they're not allowing touchdowns they're're not allowing big plays necessarily, which, you know, obviously influence EPA, but on a play to

play basis, they're like about league average. So how does that work though, with this Falcons team that honestly has not really been able to establish the run as well as we have anticipated and like have struggled to establish that identity and have had to rely on Desmond Ritter, I think a lot more than they would have liked at least the last few weeks. So for me, it's a no play in this game because, again, I want to continue fading Baker Mayfield basically as much as possible. I'm just not sure if this is another spot to do so because if I had any faith that Atlanta could kind of find their rhythm offensively, I think I'd feel a little more comfortable with that.

But I just can't quite get there yet, especially a plus 2.5. If for some reason it gets to 3, I think that would probably be worth a play, but I don't really think it's gonna get there yeah i mean washington did not play good football last week and came out of there with a win uh which is problematic if you're i think bullish on the falcons at all and yeah i think they are having to lean a little bit more on desmond murder than they want to um i do think that the tampa bay run defense is fraudulent there's some underlying metrics in terms of power rate or stuff rate that are not good.

There's some other things that make them look a little bit better than they are. So it'll be interesting to see if Atlanta can move the ball on the ground against them. On the other side, yeah, Baker, we think it's fraudulent. What I do know for sure is that regardless of whatever you think of Atlanta's rush defense, they just can't.

The Bucs just can't run the football. They just can't do it. They've struggled all year. Last year, they've done it again this year. They have no luck at all. And that becomes really problematic when you have a spot here where I think A.J. Terrell is a pretty nice corner. He's had some success probably more than others in the league at this point in terms of shadowing.

So I think he probably gets a lot of Mike Evans. Now, that doesn't mean that Mike Evans can't win those individual matchups. He's Mike Evans. He's a great one-on-one contested catch guy. I think it just puts a lot of pressure on Baker if there are times when his top option is maybe eliminated, they can't run the football, and he's got to figure out what to do with the rest of it.

I don't feel really good about that outcome. So I like Atlanta as a viable teaser like here. I don't feel confident about them at two and a half. I don't feel confident about them on the money line or anything like that. But for me, it would probably be Falcons teaser or nothing. We'll have to wait and see if there's a, you know, I don't think there's really any injury news or anything here that would make me move off of this.

So probably we'll include Atlanta into a teaser legacy. If the guys can talk me into another part of that here. So that would be my lean. I just want to kind of find ways to continue to say that. I think the first two weeks of Baker were really fraudulent and I want to find ways to kind of go against it when I feel like that's maybe still being baked into his season-long numbers. Just insane third down rate, insane red zone efficiency.

Those things just haven't been a staple of his career. Well, same thing with the Bucs defense. Now, that might be a thing too. They've been really good defensively inside the red zone, limiting. I think their tops and lead lowest scoring rate for opposing offenses. That has not necessarily been – Desmond Ritter's not necessarily a world beater there. So maybe that's not the week that that gets busted. But I think that probably comes back into the, you know, more league average than we

see over the course of the season. More memories are made when you're there for live NFL action. And when you need tickets, Ticketmaster's got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL, Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives you 360-degree previews of your section to make sure you have the best views of those pivotal plays. And if your plans change, Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets. Plus, mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors.

Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. Next, another division game. This one's interesting. The Chargers in Kansas City. Chiefs, five and a half point favorites here. Total on FanDuel, 47 and a-a-half through our 48s. There are 48-and-a-halves in the market as well, so shop around if you have a total lean.

It's a tough scheduling spot for the Chargers. They are traveling in the division, short rest after playing Monday night against Dallas. The Chiefs have been able to sit on their hands at home coming off of a mini-buy, hosting the Broncos last week. I kind of hate that they can't do this better. AI was supposed to be involved to help with the schedule. It just seems like an unfair little schedule break here for the Chargers.

Clark, but I know you kind of like them in this spot, or at least enough to take some extra points here on the teaser. What does my cat think? I don't know. I, you know, before the season started, I looked at, I looked at the spot and I was expecting to be a hammer at the chargers kind of spot. I think the look ahead was right around plus five and a half what it is now. But after, after six weeks of play, you know, grading every game and running the simulations,

like I can't get there on the chargers at this number. They just haven't been as good as I expected. every game and running the simulations, like I can't get there on the chargers at this number. They just haven't been as good as I expected. And so even though the chiefs haven't necessarily been as good on offense, the way that they've been playing defense has been materially better. And Justin Herbert misses Mike Williams and Corey Lindsley again, you know, just like last year, he was noticeably better when his weapons were down. And the same thing is happening this year. He's, he's not proven to be the kind of quarterback who's immune to, you know, losing players on offense. Like he, he kind of does need a little bit of a supporting cast, even though he's so good at escaping pressure and has those intangible,

you know, qualities that tend to make quarterbacks, uh, situation proof. He just hasn't proved it on the field yet. Um, so I've been a little disappointed in Justin Herbert, but I still have, we still have, you know, four years of data of who he is and I'm not overreacting to, you know, one primetime game against a really, really tough defense. And also like the way the game ended is seared in people's minds and it looked bad for him. But really it was just Micah Parsons making a great play on that second down play. And that was kind of what ended it. So I'm not, I'm not kind of swinging too far in the other direction, but I'm not making a play on the charges here,

even though I would want to, because you know, the way these two teams play and, and typically like short-term history of two teams playing against each other, it doesn't really mean much because it's like, well, you know,

who are the players, who are the coaches, like things change. But in this case, it really has been two very similar teams for several years. Now this is the Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes rivalry. Andy Reid and Brandon Staley have been coaching these teams for three years now. And every time these teams play, it is tough fought.

And whoever is losing scores. The team that's winning has a hard time putting the other team away. And a lot of that has to do with how these teams are built. And even with the Chiefs defense being a little bit better this year, I still think the Chargers can score when their back's against the wall and they're forced to be aggressive. If you look at the serious conversion rates in Monday night's game based on whether or not the Chargers passed on first down, it was significantly better when they passed on first down. And teams that are trailing in the second half tend to pass more on first down. So I think

that this is an example of the very rare non-Wong teaser that I like. One of the advantages to teasing, you know, five and a half to 11 and a half is that some books will tailor the price of the teaser based on the specific numbers you're getting. And so there are some books that will give you a better price on a teaser if you use a leg like this.

And so that's kind of what I'm looking to do here. I don't think the Chiefs have a win by 12 plus in them here. Very, very, very few outcomes involve that range. So for me, there's value in getting all those numbers up to 11 and a half on the chargers. And the math guys are going to skewer me and I don't mind. It sounds vibey to me. Yeah, it is not vibey. It is very, very mathematical. I could tell you how many lines of code my program has, but it is not vibes. I think you're on mute, Noonan. Look at that.

Always do for once or twice a year. We haven't seen the Chiefs really take advantage offensively. We haven't seen this next level of offense. You know, they play a historically bad Broncos defense at home and struggle to, you know, put up 20 points in that matchup. Again, that's recency bias. I don't want to overrate it, but you know, where are we at with the Chiefs? You know, is this a team that we do think can run away and hide? And that's kind of why I think it makes sense. Clark, you know,

TZ through the seven and through the 10 to be able to get a little extra points and cushion here on a chiefs team that just doesn't seem to be able to, to beat anyone very handily so far this season. What are your thoughts, Connor? It's interesting because the chargers right now are dead last and explosive pass rate allowed 30th and pass CPA per play 25th success rate.

And when you think about that in the context of like, Oh, okay, well now Patrick Mahomes draws that matchup but the issue is like the Chiefs offense this year 17th and explosive pass rate they're good in EPA per play and obviously they're moving the ball consistently with you know Travis Kelsey over the middle but they're they don't have that quite a like splash effect they've had in years past and I think that might come more into effect with you know Rasheed Rice kind of playing a bigger role but I mean Sky Moore has been like an absolute nobody.

MVS is basically just running cardio out there each week. Like, they don't really have any of those guys that can push and stretch the field as much as I think to, like, maximize, you know, kind of like Patrick Rome's skill set, to be honest, at this point. So, and take advantage of what the Chargers are not doing well, which is stopping explosive plays. Now, I don't think they're doing a whole lot well stopping the pass in general, but I think that is one significant way where maybe this game would get out of hand is if the Chiefs were able to hit a couple of big plays.

I'm just not really sure that they're there yet in terms of their offensive progression throughout the season. And then the Chiefs' pass defense has been pretty good overall, like top five in a lot of different metrics. Their run defense has been about average, if not below average, in a lot of different metrics. So maybe we see the Chargers rely a little bit more on Austin Eckler. Maybe we see them rely more on the run,

which I think should be pretty successful in this spot here. So I'm interested to see how this game pans out. I would probably lean towards Chargers plus 5.5, but it's not like a strong play of mine or anything. The one thing the Chargers defense has been really good at has been getting pressure on the quarterback. That's something the Chiefs just don't allow you to do, and then Mahomes himself is so good at has been getting pressure on the quarterback that's something the chiefs just don't allow you to do and then mahomes himself is so good at avoiding pressure as well so that kind

of mitigates one of their their bigger advantages so yeah i would like to see another level for the for the chiefs um before having a ton of confidence in them here i kind of agree with clark i mean i like what he did with the teaser like to be honest um because i just don't think we've seen that next level where the chiefs can run away and hide from someone again if you're not gonna be able to do it from for denver i don't have a great feeling that you're gonna be able to do it for the chiefs or for the chargers who i think will continue to find their footing a little bit in terms of like again the young group didn't come off the buy and look great you know getting quentin johnston in the mix and stuff like that but i think over time that'll help a little bit here and expect them to kind of

you know find their footing here moving forward so uh interesting game and impactful for sure uh the chargers have a shot here in the office are getting closer and take advantage of this one our next miami is in philadelphia eagles i just said a defense uh played much better on monday night with with some guys coming back during Dorian James and Joey Bosa. So the Chargers defensive metrics are a little bit skewed. I think the under being played in this game coming down a bit makes sense to me with the way the Chiefs offense has been playing and the way the Chargers defense is starting to play better.

Yeah, I agree. Total actually does feel a little high. This next total should be higher, I feel like. Miami and Philly,agles two point favorites here total on fanduel 51 and a half we've gone to 52 in some spots as well i just don't think we see many punts clark uh dolphins have put up video game numbers in all but one game this season that was the bills game uh they turned it over in the red zone multiple times in that game so like even that they were able to move the ball with no problems.

And this Miami defense, I think in this game is the worst unit of anything in this game. I think Philadelphia is able to move the ball absolutely up and down the field on them. Should be an entertaining one, hopefully. We've had some of these higher profile games that we want to be entertaining have been somewhat duds this season.

But hoping this one lives up to the billing here. Clark, let's get started with Dolphins and Eagles. Yeah, sure. This is my highest projected offensive rating combined that I've ever projected in a game. The difference between the offenses and defenses on this field is going to be wild. Weather is going to impact the score a little bit, potentially. If they were playing within a dome i i don't think that this total stays at 52 i think it shoots up um the dolphins

offense i can't believe i'm this guy after all of our conversations in preseason but the dolphins offense is not getting the respect it deserves like how is that how is that possible people are like yeah like they're really good offense, but how long can they sustain it? This is just unsustainable. They did it against the Broncos. What does that really mean? They weren't that good against the Bills and against the one defense they faced.

But what they're doing is so repeatable and consistent. And it's incredible to watch. It's incredible how easy it is for them. And it's frustrating for fans of every, every other team to watch. Cause it's like, why can't we do something like that? Right. The answer is speed mostly,

but also Mike McDaniels play calling he's, he's setting things up to where every time to a drops back, the decision is made so quickly that the pressure from the defensive line is almost irrelevant. And, and that's kind of been the thing for the Eagles defense is like they play well when they can get interior pressure on a quarterback that panics like Baker Mayfield. But when quarterbacks have been able to get the ball out

outside the numbers or downfield, they've really struggled. Their secondary has not played well this year and receivers have just done whatever they want downfield. I really don't understand how the Eagles are going to stop the Dolphins passing attack. And then their run game is so lateral. It's so side to side that they're avoiding the middle part of that defensive line.

It's so strong for Philadelphia. So I think the Dolphins can be able to run as well. On the other side, I don't see how the Dolphins, based on the way they've played to date, are going to stop the Eagles run game. And when you don't stop the Eagles run game, it makes the pass game easier. So I think there's gonna be a ton of points here. But I think, you know, again, running my Sims, I make it Miami by about half a point on median. So right now, you can get Miami as an underdog on the money line for plus money,

and I see value there. It's not a ton of value, because the Eagles are a very good team. And the Dolphins defense hasn't been playing well. But the difference between these two teams is basically that I think the Eagles rely more on third down conversions and rely more on, you know, players making really good plays in difficult situations. Whereas I think the Dolphins offense is much more, it's like, wow, that was so convincing. There was no way that play was going to fail. It was just a wide open pass to Tyree Kill, 15 yards downfield and two is accurate. So to me, there's less room for error on the Dolphins side of the ball when they have the ball.

So I think the Dolphins have an edge here. And I think provided there's no weather concerns, I'm also comfortable playing the over. Yeah, I have to see the weather. The injury report of the Eagles side, I think is impactful too. Lane Johnson, I want to make sure that he's good. It sounds like the reports are okay.

Ankle injury, but not a high ankle and possible to play here. We've historically on off splits with lane johnson in and out of the lineup has been a pretty massive impact to the eagles and then defensively uh we need a couple of guys too derry slay uh needs to be in this one he's been dinged up they brought over bradley robey to play in the slot so that they can keep james bradbury on the the outside because Bradbury is good on the outside and not good in the slot. And that's what they did for a little bit. Roby's dinged up a little bit. Reblanketship got dinged up last game.

Jalen Carter, to your point, like if they're going to get pressure, you know, over center and up the middle to make things a little bit messy for Tua, they need Jalen Carter in this game too. So the injury report on the Eagles side is something that I'd want to see here as well in terms of like picking a side. Otherwise I still think points are going to be coming in bunches here. Connor, what are your thoughts on this one? The Eagles have played against the Patriots, Commanders, Bucks, Jets,

and then allowed 364 yards and four touchdowns to Kirk Cousins in the Vikings offense and are 31st in explosive pass rate allowed on the season. I mean, given the injuries, given what we've seen, like they haven't even played any tough teams. And then they played, I guess, their best defensive performances against the Rams. I mean, like the Rams have looked great, but like it's not like they're infallible. You know, like their offensive line is not all that good. Like Philly is able to take advantage of that.

And like, you know, there's so many more holes there. Whereas this Dolphins team, they're just so multiple. They're able to, you know, stretch the run to the outside. Like you said, like they, the way that they're running the ball too, is so different with, you know, getting their, these guys a full head, head of steam before they get their hand, able to hand the ball off. Whereas like they're leveraging that and outside zone and basically aligning them, like shoot through the gaps instead of like having to explode on their own explosiveness. It's just, I think, so significantly different here. I like

Miami team total over 24 and a half. I do think that Philly probably had success offensively as well for a lot of the reasons you mentioned. The Dolphins defense has not really played all that well. But I will say though that a lot of their biggest weakness is underneath. And we saw Bryce Young have a, I would say, pretty solid game for the most part, you know, underneath. And made a couple of mistakes there. But, you know, had a pretty solid game underneath. And like, you know, I'm not sure that that's something that Jalen Hurts

does particularly well, I would say, for the most part. You know, digging and dunking underneath. But I do think, though, that in this spot, this Dolphins defense overall is not good enough. So I prefer the team total look. I would lean towards the Dolphins if I had to pick a side. Because, again, I'm just like most confident spot this Dolphins defense overall is not good enough so I prefer the team total look I would lean towards the Dolphins if I had to pick a side because I again I'm just like most confident that this Dolphins offense is able to score and expose this Eagles defense that even coming into this year I wanted to say it was overrated we said in the beginning

of the year I'm like this defense is good but they're not you know number one number two overall in basically every metric like they were last year and And I think that that's going to be shown here. Yeah. I mean, the pressure metrics were massively unsustainable. We knew that they were going to be coming back down to earth a little bit and we've seen it. Yeah. I just, I feel like, again,

this is a spot where we get a little bit closer. We get a sense of this weather is maybe being overrated a little bit, man. I'm with you. Like I looked at both of these team totals and I'm like, ooh, getting the Eagles over, you know, on the right side of a key number at 26 and a half, that's appealing to me. The Dolphins side, I'm with you guys.

Like very, you know, getting them anytime under at this point, 27 feels like a play that we should be really considering because we just haven't seen them challenged. And that's the thing too. Like the Dolphins have been running away with these things. We haven't really seen them being a spot where like these teams are having to push each other. We've kind of seen it a little bit with the Eagles too.

When someone's like pushing tempo on them as well and making them kind of keep up, I think there's some ceiling to both of these offenses that we haven't really seen yet. So going to be a really interesting one. And yeah, I'm just hopeful for an entertaining primetime game with hopefully a crap ton of points. And then teaser-like, that's your thing too, right?

Where, you know, Dolphins are plus two and a half. You get them, if you like the Dolphins on your side, all of a sudden eight and a half, you feel pretty good about that. All right, next, San Francisco on Monday night is in Minnesota. FanDuel is at San Francisco minus seven. There are six and a half in the market as well. Looks like the total basically 44 and a half across the board. Again, injury report-wise for the Niners is something that we want to see.

I don't know if it matters in terms of your thoughts on this, Clark, but, you know, CMC, Trent Williams, Dre Greenlaw, Debo Samuel, all either dinged up last game or in the case of Greenlaw, didn't play at all. But this Vikings team, first time we saw them last week without Justin Jefferson was not overly impressive. They were so reliant on explosive plays through the passing game with Justin Jefferson. And just going to be hard to kind of drum those up quite as consistently here without

a move forward. What are your thoughts on niners and vikings i think not overly impressive is the most generous description of the vikings offense you come up with they prior to that game with just jefferson they averaged 0.023 epa per play and 45.9 success rate on passes that came against the eagles the chiefs who we talked about is good, the Bucks, pretty good, Chargers and Panthers defenses. They then go against the Bears, one of, if not the worst defense in the NFL. Granted, they got some cornerbacks back for that game, but they're still not a good defense. And they averaged negative 0.176 EPA per play and a 41.2% success rate on passes. Their offense was atrocious compared to what they've been with Justin Jefferson. And you can't overreact to one game, right? Because it's like, well, you know, it could have just

been a bad game. They're still figuring things out. They got to get those roles sorted out. But it's also important not to underreact to the fact that their best player and one of the best players in the NFL, one of the most impactful non-quarterbacks in the NFL was missing. And they were significantly and notably worse throughout the game. When you do that, your wide receiver two has to play the wide receiver one role. Your wide receiver three has to step up into the wide receiver two role. You rely more on your tight end and this,

everybody is playing a position that they're not used to. They're playing more difficult competition. And we've seen this time and time again, when a dominant wide receiver misses. So significant downgrade to the Vikings after that Bears game or before the Bears game, frankly. And then on the other side, significant downgrade to the 49ers because like you said, CMC, Debo Samuel, Trent Williams, Dre Greenlaw, all very material pieces to this team. But ultimately, I have more faith that the 49ers are able to withstand some of these

injuries than I am the Vikings, uh, in part because they have other weapons. They have a coach who can scheme things up based on the personnel who's available. And they have until Monday night to get that game plan prepared. Um, I think that Brock Purdy had a tough game for sure, but a lot of it was long second downs, long third downs due to penalties. There was some miscommunications after Debo Samuel went out and they were playing Ray Ray McLeod in his position and he was out of position and they were trying to figure out, you know, you're standing in the wrong place, get over there. And then the crowd's getting crazy and,

you know, the wind and the weather and Brock Purdy's tiny hands were unable to grip the football. He, you know, he drops it one time, like all of this craziness happened in that game. And they still against the best defense in the NFL drove down the field late in the game to set up the winning field goal. And they missed the field goal that has nothing to do with predicting how good this offense is going to be against the Vikings. So I think that the 49ers bounce back here. And I think in particular, their defense, if they only missed Dre Greenlaw, hopefully if he's back, will absolutely crush this Vikings offense that has nobody to turn to now that Jefferson's out. I think it's going to be a real struggle. And I think what that's going to do is lead to a lot of possessions by the 49ers. And so even if they don't quite get things, you know, 100% without these guys, I think they'll have enough opportunities to get

enough drives going and eventually kind of lean on the Vikings until they, they kind of run away with it. So I, I don't mind laying the points here with the Niners, even six and a half expensive or seven cheap, you know, either way it's, it's a good bet in my opinion.

Yeah. I'm with you there, Connor. What are your thoughts on, on this Monday night matchup? Pretty wild. The Vikings last week ratcheted up their blitz rate to 70% against the Bears last week, knowing that Justin Fields struggles under pressure

and just basically hoping to get home as much as possible. And obviously didn't finish the game, but it's not like he looked very good prior to that anyway. So now it's interesting. What do they do in this spot, right? Because you have probably Debo missing, who is their primary zone beater, you know, according to the splits. Ayuk is more of their man beater. Does that mean that Kittle gets more involved with this kind of sitting

into some of the zones? Does that mean, but if Trent Williams misses, does that mean that he has to stay in the block more and kind of like do some more max protects? So I think that there's some, an interesting dynamic with how these injuries shake out and how it could impact the 49ers offense.

Now, that being said, I have a lot of faith and we have a pretty big sample of Kyle Shanahan, just figuring it out and kind of like, able to scheme against if the Vikings do decide to blitz basically every single play or every other play, how that goes here because I could see the Vikings very easily looking at what happened last week with just getting pressure on Purdy and no one really going to be able to get open at times,

and I think trying to smother them a little bit, especially without CMC. So for me, it's probably playing the Vikings team total. We're looking at that over 17 and a half. I think that we're probably going to see maybe, you know, definitely not a ceiling performance here from the 49ers offense. And I think that probably slows down the game state a little bit. And then like you guys have mentioned here, I still have pretty good confidence that the 49ers defense slows down the Vikings offense. So I think that we're probably looking at, you know, 49ers win. I think the down the Vikings offense. So I think that we're probably looking at a 49ers win. I think the spread's about right, but I think that the team total is still a little bit too high

over the 17 and a half, 18 and a half in some spots too. I like the six and a half too, if you can find them. I do think it is viable. And again, another interesting teaser leg, not a great teaser leg in the sense that you're not teasing through the seven, unfortunately. But see if we get any action on that. I think that that's in play to feel really good about San Francisco

bouncing back and getting a win here. And that's kind of all we're trying to do with a teaser leg on that one. Anything else on the board for you guys here? Real quick, I just want to say that, like, the injuries, I tend to try to assume the worst for the side that I'm betting. You know, like, would I still make this bet if these guys don't go? For me, that's close. I heard that CMC's issue was a pain tolerance issue.

Whether or not these reports are accurate coming out, they've been kind of- Shoot them up, baby. Fire them up. You're telling me if it's a pain tolerance issue, Christian McCaffrey's not going, right? Maybe it's more than that. Maybe this report was bad and then with the other guys all of them not serious injuries you know so and it's a monday night game like they have time to prepare there is a chance that these guys go and if that's the case then i think we'll see this number go up that's that's my definitely yeah yeah that's a good point yeah um clark back to you anything on the board here for week seven

that we didn't touch on that is uh of interest to you your circle any situations you're monitoring whether it's injury report or weather related anything like that yeah i gave out half a teaser leg so the other the other leg that i paired it with was the the seahawks at home against arizona although is kyle and murray playing like i don't know? I don't know what's going on with that. But no, my numbers are- I don't think so. I think- Yeah, I don't think Murray's playing. I mean, it's surprising to see that report.

But my numbers make- I like Seattle against the spread. This is a good example of a situation where I like the favorite at seven and a half, but I'd rather tease it down to one and a half than play the spread just because of the value you can get with a one leg like that. That's the spot I'm looking at. And then the other one I bet today was the over in the Patriots' bills, over 40 and a half or over 41 playable, either of those numbers.

There's potential weather in that game that you should probably keep an eye on. Some people prefer to wait until they have confirmation on the weather. I tend to think that sometimes you'll miss a good number of waiting. In this case, both defenses are completely banged up and haven't really been exposed by good offenses yet. And I think the Bills are going to really crush the Patriots defense in a way that their previous opponents haven't been able to, the Raiders and the Saints. And then on the other side of the ball, I think the Patriots offense is getting a little bit underrated just because they've played so many good defenses and not looked good doing it. And when the narrative is so dominant in one direction, there's usually a little bit of value going the other way.

So I think the Patriots can put up a few points against the Bills defense missing Milano and Trey White and Daquan Jones. And now there's other guys on the injury report, both in the secondary and on the defensive line. So whether or not the Bills cover the spread, I'm not sure. But I think the Patriots can put up enough points to kind of get this game over the low number of 40 and on the defensive line. So whether or not the Bills cover the spread, I'm not sure, but I think the Patriots can put up enough points to kind of get this game over the low number of 40.5-41. I mean, the sentiment is correct. I mean, that offense is absolutely abysmal to watch right now. It is painful in New England.

Nothing going very well there at all. Another great teaser like two, I think. They're 8.5 out there still in the Bills. You want to bring that through the seven and three. I think that makes a ton of sense. You can sell me on the Bills team total, but having New England have to carry their water at all makes me a little bit nervous.

Connor, anything that you're looking at here for week seven? Yeah, the Colts team total being at like 19 and a half against the Browns is really surprising to me. I mean, that seems really, really high considering they're starting Gardner Minshew. He looked – I thought he looked terrible for a lot of the game, and so he made a lot of mistakes. And we know it's like Cleveland.

It looks like Deshaun's not going to play again, so they're just going to run the piss out of the ball. So it's like – I mean, it's going to be a low-scoring game, and I think that Cleveland probably wins here, but I just am surprised that we're getting this even over 17.5. I think we're looking at much more of a low a low scoring game. And like, I don't, I think that Cleveland probably wins here, but I, I just am surprised that we're getting this even over 17 and a half. Like, I think we're looking at,

you know, much more of a low scoring game here. And if anyone's scoring, I think it's going to be the Browns via the ground and maybe some long plays in the passing game because it's called secondary is not very good. Yeah. That one caught my eye too. It was on the list of,

you know, team totals that I thought were, were pretty interesting. Cause I don't, the Gardner Minshew experience has not been uh very smooth so far uh this season the other one i really like the cardinals team total that kind of goes in line with with uh clark's points there getting the cardinals under 17 and a half i think is pretty interesting like seattle's run defense has been awesome um and you're gonna basically make j Josh Dobbs play one-handed. I feel like that's not a place that any offense wants to be.

So that's – especially with James Conrad out, it's kind of a three-headed monster of – and monster, and I use that term very lightly. It's not a great running situation there in Arizona. So having the Cardinals have to get over 17-and-a-half, I think, is going to be a stretch for them this week. What do we make of the Raiders-Bears game, Connor? This is going to be an interesting one. Same thing, like, I mean, I don't have a lot of confidence

in the Raiders' defense, but the Bears' team total is 17 and a half as well. I feel like taking Division II rookies under is probably a good play historically. Any thoughts on Raiders-Bears? Tyson Badgent, you know, elite prospect. Dominated in Division II. Great karaoke skills. Not sure if you guys saw that video.

Got a lot of intangibles. You know, beat out P.J. Walker in the preseason. You know, elevated his stuff. I mean, that being said, I, I think these Raiders defense sucks. Like, I mean, they played some terrible teams and they're still allowing, like they were still allowing like decent completion percentage over 60% completion rate rate. Like I think it was close to seven yards per attempt against like these

garbage quarterbacks. And now Tyson Badgett is definitely a garbage quarterback, but I don't know. I can't, I just can't get there. I mean, the Bears defense played reasonably well last week. It's the Vikings. I don't, again, just can't get there. I mean, the Bears defense played reasonably well last week against the Vikings. Again, Devontae Adams is not practicing today. Like, I think that we're going to see the Raiders start probably Brian Hoyer in this spot, I think. I don't think they're going to start O'Connell again.

So, for me, it's like, I mean, for fun, I might throw some money on the Bears money line because I like to watch the world burn. But, you know, it's just like I don't have a true take on it. The Bears are smart. They just, you know, just like I don't have a true take on it. The Bears are smart. Just fold up shot, man. You have a chance to really change your franchise in a big, big way. Don't

I can fix the Bears right now. I can literally fix the Bears franchise. Anyone listening, you got Connects to the Bears, you hire me. I'll do it for fucking free. I will literally fix your franchise in a year, and I promise you you will have a winning record in 2025. It's that easy.

Trade away Justin Fields. Hire an offensive court, a good offensive coach, and then draft Caleb Williams, draft Marvin Harrison Jr., and log out, and you're fine. That's it. Yeah. Yeah. What a mess.

That one's going to be, I don't know interesting to watch um we have six bye weeks or six teams on by so like we're gonna have to watch that game um but hey this is what it is it's football and uh be nothing learned but uh interesting nonetheless Max Crosby I imagine eats in that game um it makes it very hard mean, the rest of his defense is pretty trash, but I imagine he probably has a good defense. Keep up the Raiders' defensive slander, man. I bet on the Raiders. They've been really good to me. They've played Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, whoever, Justin Herbert.

Jordan Love, okay. Mac Jones, okay. And then Kenny Pickett. I don't think that's actually that bad. Four trash guys. Four like the worst quarterbacks in the league. That's not a great list, Kevin. But tell me who's played good quarterbacks.

Nobody's playing good quarterback right now, right? So half quarterbacks in the league are trash. Yeah. So I actually think the Raiders defense is underrated. I think they've been playing pretty well so i mean i i don't mind that everyone thinks they suck because there's been value on them the last two weeks so you know keep it up are you laying the three i know i i don't even know he's playing quarterback i'm just just i i just have a yeah i think the raiders have been

like underrated throughout the season and every week people are like oh this defense is trash and it's like are you watching they're they're not bad they're oh man i mean if the defense is even a bunch of bronies it is crosby's playing so well you just don't see like defensive ends like that play every single snap crosby's dominate he's a monster dude he's so good. So it sucks for him. He's not really a viable defensive player of the year candidate because his defense isn't great and his team's not very great. But, yeah, we'll see. Long way to go. When Jimmy G comes back, they find their groove. We finally get some good Josh Jacobs games.

He's getting the work and all those things. We'll see. Tyson Badgen drops 30 and Clark's got to wear a Cubs hat. How about that? Yeah. I like it. I like it. I like it. Oh man.

All right guys. Uh, anything else for the people? Nothing else for the people. All right. Uh, we're running on props every week. So join the discard.

Yeah. Props have been good. Props have, uh, props have been good. We're going to keep it going this week. So, uh, come back on Friday for the prop show,

prop drop at 3 p.m. Eastern here on the 444Bets YouTube channel, podcast feed as well, 444.com slash plans, promo code YouTube. Gets you 25% off of the already discounted subscription. Again, access to everything that we do, all the bets, all the tools, all the articles. You want NBA picks. We have a very, very thirsty group that is dying to bet NBA ladders and help you build your bankroll basically between Sundays on the NBA side.

Kevin O'Brien is going to be doing good stuff for us there. More information on that to come here in the coming days. NBA starts on Tuesday. We're excited about it. So good stuff as always from Clark and Connor. We will see you on Friday. Thanks, everybody.