Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 8 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: October 23, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 8! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 8 betting guide, and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move a line presented by DraftKings Sportsbook I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by Connor Allen to unpack some thoughts around the NFL for week eight what's going on Connor yeah coming off another solid week um also NBAba product two and oh uh shout out jake crushing it there it's it's uh it's good feels like things are aligning here i think all of us won on the four four side i think each of us individually all had winning weeks for the first time all season which feels good you know winning feels awesome hard to do hard to do what we're doing here uh really excited to get into week eight joined byined by a familiar face, a familiar voice. It is our friend who's in the spot with us all year, last year,

and a big part of what we've done over the last couple years at 444 on the betting side. It is our friend, Sharp Clark. What's going on, bud? Welcome back. Good to have you. Thank you. Good to be back. This is officially my first media appearance of the season, so I so kind of crawling out of my cave of just working privately um so yeah good to be here and i look forward to it there was one video there was a video you made a uh a notebook uh homage actually shout out to uh week seven's guest uh grp wins you had your own iteration uh it's the first time i got a beautiful look at that big old beautiful Shout out to week seven's guest, GRP wins. You had your own iteration.

It's the first time I got a beautiful look at that big old, beautiful beer that you have going on. So I guess second media appearance after, are you still tracking in the notebook? How's that going for you? No, no, no. Just track the features in the notebook, everything else. And then Excel, you know, and when, when you bet with a lot of volume, like,

and you're getting a bunch of different small bets at different books, like it really expands. And so I think I'm on row 890 of the season so far so it's a lot of a lot of little bets i think that would be a second notebook uh unless you were you couldn't be double spacing you'd have to be using maybe the backs of sheets so i think excel google sheets probably the right idea probably do you still write stuff, a lot of stuff by hand Clark at all? Cause I know you were a lawyer. I'm like, I cannot legitimately remember the last time I've written something on paper,

like longer than like a signature. Yeah. I mean, I do most of my work on, on, on paper. Oh my God. And like,

you know, and then I'll bet for tracking bets. It's always electronically, but for like, just, you know, working through issues like overperformance, underperformance, what, underperformance, what happened, that stuff always happens on paper. Wow.

I'm impressed. I'm not going to lie. That's awesome. I'm new to the no paper thing. Actually, I've been. I think this is my first year where nothing is on paper. I used to do the same thing. Would track a little bit of notes.

Now everything digital, electronic. Yeah. So I understand it. Sometimes when you're like, it's the process of writing it down. It's like a secondary step in actually like knowing it, right? Like versus like seeing it,

capturing the data, then like writing it down almost like solidifies that as like something that you now know to a different level. I don't know if that makes sense to the listeners, but like there's just that extra little added thing that comes with like okay i'm taking

this information i'm transferring it here it's captured somewhere else and now i feel like that's actually something that i know it can call back to yeah i also like revisiting it so like if i write down my thoughts before game and i say hey here's what i think is going to happen here's why i watch the game and then grade it and i go back to and I say, do I need to change my priors? You know, like that's the Bayesian moment, right? Of like what needs to change, what needs to stay the same after the new evidence that we presented with.

And I find that easier to do with writing because you can cross stuff out and like, you know, move stuff around. Whereas with digital, it's like a little bit more structured in how you can do that. So yeah, that makes sense. I'll remind folks before we get into things here,

two episodes of MoveLine each week. This is again, more sides of totals, more overall NFL discussions. If you want bets, player props, Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern, myself, Connor, John Hyslop, taking your questions, building milli parlays, just a lot of full-on degenerate stuff that we love to have on that show. You can find it on YouTube, on 444Bets YouTube channel, or Move the Line wherever you listen to podcasts.

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of the NBA season is going to get you 50% off of the rest of the year package as well. So four for four.com slash plans, use the promo code tip off to get 50% off. And again, that takes you through February. So you get most of the NBA season with us and then the rest of the NFL stuff as well. Clark touched on it a little bit. I want to get a sense of what's different for you. Obviously last couple of years with us, the kind of struggle at times in terms of having to like, you want to get the best of the number. You want to have time to be able to do what you do in terms of game process, film evaluation, all those different things, but also having a very unique thing in terms of being somewhat dependent on trying to provide a service to subscribers, right? Making sure that there's access to them to get things down.

How have things changed for you just from a high level or anything you want to share about your process this year? And how it's changed from the last couple of years. I think you muted amateur hour back. Yeah. Amateur hour back in the studio. Okay. I've really enjoyed kind of working more privately

because the amount of time it takes to really put in the work to like do a write-up for each individual game, like it adds up along with all the process that I'm already doing of evaluating the film and getting those numbers made. And so I think I've had more time to really focus on the games, which is really nice.

As far as betting goes, like, you know, I think people have a misconception about market influence that like, you know, obviously, I'm not someone who the moment I say that, like the entire market is steaming multiple points, like I don't have that level of market influence. And I've never claimed to have that. But the idea of being able to pick off all the best prices quietly with a group without, you know, announcing that to others means that other people who are sharp and do have that The idea of being able to pick off all the best prices quietly with a group without announcing that to others means that other people who are sharp and do have that level of market influence that might see my bet and be like, I should probably bet this earlier than later

because it might move if other sharp people are on it. So I think keeping quiet really keeps the market at a number I like longer. And so I'm not moving markets. I'm trying to bet quietly, which is a very different type of way to do it. And I'm really enjoying it. And it's, you know, it's still a real challenge. You know, it's a very, very intense market to try to beat. And so it's been an up and down season. But, you know, I'm feeling really good about the process and kind of how it's going. When you say bet quietly, can you speak to that a little bit in terms of is that like spreading out, you know over multiple places is that just like you know when

you enter the market or they kind of speak to what that means to you yeah so like obviously the books taking the biggest bets on nfl sides if you bet the limit at those books they're going to move the line now whether or not they keep the line move depends on how much they respect your your action as a bettor, right? Like some random account that loses, that's the limit. They're going to auto move. And then the trader is going to look at it and be like, yeah, we don't care about this guy's opinion, move it back. But sometimes when you max bet, they're going to be like, oh yeah, this guy's sharp. Let's keep it or whatever. So there's a process there that you want to avoid

if you're trying to get as much down with different books as possible, where you don't want to trigger any of those auto movers. You don't want to trigger any traders to be looking at the bet. That's like a sharp bet. So it's a little bit more of a slow process. You know, you don't want to bet limits. You don't want to like call attention to yourself. And I think that's kind of a different way of doing it. Yeah, for sure.

Love that. I think that's really interesting. Yeah. And then the write-up thing is a real thing. Like sometimes it'll be like, you know, I'm running projections for tackles and it's like, it's telling me that it's a plus EV bet. It's like, I just want to put in the chat, like, hey, let's bet this. But then it's like, you know, cultivating two to three paragraphs on why it's a good place and that needs to live in an article on the site. Something that, you know, some people enjoy the process. Some people don't even read those. It's like, man, I could probably have more volume, especially on Sunday morning, if I didn't have to churn out a solid couple of paragraphs. And again, unique experience to us on the content side,

but I think it is part of it too. Sometimes it's like, this is an EV bet. This is a bad number. My number is way different. My favorite thing is the subs who will ask me a question about something that's very clearly answered in the write-up.up like like well what about this guy who's going to play this week i'm like every time well yeah like i addressed that that's like the focal point of the argument you know like what are you like do you read it and then they're like no i didn't read it

at all i just like i'm looking at the bat i'm like yeah well it's like people enjoy it you're like i bet prosper living like i know i know who might not play. Yeah, right. Exactly. Yeah. Did you consider this? Like, oh, yeah, actually, I consider that. Yeah, that's actually part of it. But it's actually written down there, too, which is even worse.

So in terms of team level stuff, you know, I'm going to take the Browns off the table because there's been, I think, a lot there that's changed in terms of where we were at priors wise. And injuries and obviously some different stuff. We can get into some Brown stuff specifically in a little bit but uh have there been teams like i guess what teams have you made the biggest adjustments in terms of your numbers from where we were at seven weeks ago based off of performance yeah that's a great question and it's a good time to do it because i think at this point it's real right there's no there's no fakes uh the vikings I think, my biggest upgrade from preseason. Their defense has been outstanding, obviously. But I really like how Kevin O'Connell is playing to Sam Darnold's strengths

and avoiding his weaknesses as much as possible, kind of like he did with Kirk Cousins, really. I think Kevin O'Connell is a fantastic coach, and that's really shining through there. I think the bears the bears have kind of had an interesting journey because they i downgraded them at first and now they're kind of recovering so they've had a bit of a an up and down journey and then on on the downside um i mean obviously the saints but that's not really like you know it's injury related um

i would say probably the cowboys are the biggest downgrade um and we can talk about them some more but yeah but their offense like i mean their offense has always been a little bit match up specific and they face some tough defenses to be fair but like complete no-show on offense against the lions um and it's not like the lions have such an elite defense that you know you can predict that that's going to struggle there. Like they the Cowboys offense has struggled basically every game and their defense has been sick. Even when they had Micah Parsons and Lawrence playing, they were getting chewed apart by teams that are not, you know, go out of the water offenses.

So I think on both sides of the ball, the Cowboys are significantly downgraded from where I had them and I was low on them just to start the year and downgraded them further as the seasons come up. Yeah, it's a team that I know I was down on I think Connor was as well it just it doesn't seem like there's a lot of buying signs moving forward on Dallas what do you got Connor well yeah I think there was just like a couple of issues that like really I guess like showed a floor that was like possible one of it was like the depth of the receiving core I mean it's just cd lamb and basically no one the other one was like the depth of the receiving core. I mean, it's just CD lamb and basically no one. The other one was like the lack of a running game, which I think can matter in some aspects, but even that you're like, okay,

well, Dak and CD can probably carry most of this team. The issue that we came into the year with was the Dallas defense was like fourth in EPA, but like 22nd in success rate because of all their interceptions and pick sixes and stuff like that. So like on a per play basis, they weren't really that good. They were just creating havoc and, you know, causing turnovers, which obviously matters, but I didn't, I don't think we thought it was very sticky year over year. Uh, and it's turns out it's not right now.

So I think that we're probably seeing, I mean, kind of what we thought planning out, but it's multiple things happening at the same time that make it seem like it's, it's worse or it is worse, you know, than what we thought it was going to be at least in the year. So, um, they definitely bounced back, I think even further than I thought that they would at least at this point yeah and i i omitted real quick i just want to say the commander is obviously massive upgrade they were lower on my on my list because i have the jayden daniels injury but um yeah significant upgrade with jayden daniels healthy yeah no that makes sense too yeah i mean like we know that things like third down performance red zone performance aren't super sticky those things will somewhat start to um No, that makes sense too. Yeah, I mean, we know that things like third down performance,

red zone performance aren't super sticky. Those things will somewhat start to regress positively each way as the season progresses. But right now, the Cowboys defense is the second worst red zone defense in the league. They are offensively the second worst red zone offensively. Just a really tough place to be. Not allowing anyone to kick field goals against you.

Everyone gets to the red zone scores. And then when you get there, you don't do it really hard to win football games doing that continuously. So it puts a lot of pressure on Dak who is, I think we all agree in above average quarterback, but just when you have limited weapons, no running game, suspect offensive line, cluster injuries along the defensive side of the ball. And again, I think Connor does a great call out there too.

Like Dan Quinn, a lot of man, a lot of aggressive play. And I just have Mike Zimmer sitting back in zone. And that's just teams are smart teams are picking them apart. And I think even San Francisco is, you know, kind of struggling a little bit right now. Brock Purdy in zone been very different than Brock Purdy against man in his career. It's just not something that Dallas doesn't seem

or Zimmer doesn't seem like someone that's going to adapt to what he typically likes to do. You see a lot of Zone looks this week for Brock Purdy to get right. So yeah, I mean, look, Dallas is a team that felt pretty down on coming into the year and schedule's still not great to finish. So I don't see, three and three now feels like,

okay, they got that when they stole one from the steelers uh on that sunday night and then you got absolutely boat raced by the lions so uh still down on the cowboys moving forward yeah yeah even against the steelers everything was so tough like yeah practice made incredible plays and like if you if you miss one of those they lose you know it's they can't they can't survive this way they can't make the playoffs this way they gotta improve let's transition to the steelers while we're on it a little bit so i think this is an interesting one they are five and two uh they they've lost twice uh by a total of six points i'm talking about the three points there uh you know in the cowboys game they've otherwise for

the most part boat race the other teams that they played. Just made a quarterback change. I'm not sure where you're at on that. But survived some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, especially outside opposite of TJ Watt, losing Alex Highsmith early, I thought was a bad thing. Nick Helbig comes back in and he goes out. Highsmith is back. But I don't know.

We didn't think much of the Steelers' defense coming into the seasons out there maybe league average with a obviously a clear difference maker and an offense that i think has a ton of questions i don't know that i feel any different but they're five and two sharp uh i mean what are we doing yeah i i still don't buy them i like mike thompson does this every year where like i you know they shouldn't have won that game. They shouldn't have won that game. They shouldn't have won that game. And they won that game. It's things like blocking kicks.

They're just really well coached. But even beyond that, it's things that you can't possibly attribute to coaching. In that Sunday night game, you have the Jets in a pretty good position second half. Aaron Rodgers hits Garrett Wilson down the sideline beautiful beautiful pass in stride bounces off Garrett Wilson's hands into a defender's hands and then he takes it the other way to the one yard line for an easy touchdown and like completely changes that game and then when Steelers have the ball Russell Wilson throws you know under throws Pickens and hits the defender in the back of the helmet it somehow like bounces up off the top of the helmet into Pickens's area where he makes a juggling catch. And, you know, these types

of plays, like, I don't care how well coached you are, like, that's just not sustainable. And so, you know, the Steelers have played Atlanta in Kirk Cousins' first game, Denver in Bo Nix's second game, the Chargers with all kinds of injuries, Herbert didn't even finish that game. The Colts, the Cowboys, who we've talked about, the Raiders and the Jets. Not really a murderer's row. After the bye, they go Washington, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cincinnati. So I think they're going to have to actually get better in order to win, you know, close to half of those games. And I don't And I don't really see how they get that much better because neither Russell Wilson nor Justin Fields is particularly inspiring to me as a quarterback.

I think we got sort of a top 10% outcome out of Russell Wilson in his first game. And that's going to quell the doubters for a little bit, but we're going to have a game soon where he just misses open guys, takes too many sacks. And then Justin Fields is going to be like, why are we not starting Justin Fields?

I don't think that controversy is over. So I'm not particularly high on the Steelers. That said, they've got five wins, and the AFC is sort of vulnerable this year, so they could sneak into the playoffs as like a 6 or 7 seed maybe and just make for an ugly wild card game. Plus 210 right now to miss the playoffs. Caesars with the best price uh and as you said

like they got the giants this week six and a half point favorites at home uh then there's the two browns games otherwise pretty daunting stretch to finish uh with obviously lots of questions that remain there so i'll kind of with you there i don't know if it's something i'm rushing to bet but uh yeah i just it's gonna be one of those games that early saturday game you're like oh man like steelers are in the playoffs like yeah i don't know what is it the shakies pizza game it's just the one that's just like why are we why are we here it's the old like we had that for like the bangles texans for years all right it was the andy dalton matt shawb uh playoff game on saturday afternoon someone's got to win the game I guess. At least they're playing each other.

Connor, anything to talk about Steelers-wise for you? I think Clark hit it mostly on the head there. I think one thing I want to add is that this offense or this team hasn't really had to play too far from behind yet and playing massive negative game script. I think that

that is very, very, very problematic for this team. In a game where they're down two scores and they have to drop back and try and catch up or even like 10 points. It's just, they're not built like that. Like the offensive line, I don't think it's sustained that their past catchers. I mean, again, it's George Pickens and like Pat Fryer moves, I guess. I mean like Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson has been inactive. Like, I mean, he might even catch a ball here. Like it's, it's for me, it's tough. And it's not

even the, like the defenses they face in that stretch are not really all playing all that well this year, to be honest, but it's the offenses that like can put them in those scenarios where it's going to get really messy, really fast. I think in some, some of those games. So that's what I'm most interested, interested to to see because I just have very little faith that they'll be able to, like, I don't know, play in those types of game scripts. Yeah. We can stay in the division here too. Cleveland, been rough.

Again, like a team that was just – you couldn't handicap them to do content in the offseason. You had to basically couch every sort of Cleveland discussion around, like, all right, it's the quarterback. Like the rest of the roster is great some opportunities here within the division um you know depending on where you were on cincinnati or baltimore i think we all collectively were in the same spot on steelers coming in so there was a path to a team that like could take a step forward here uh it's been rough Now we have obviously a change of quarterback, Deshaun Watson no longer for this season. This week, we're going to Jameis Winston. And some news coming out today, Clark, that the play calling duties are changing. Head coach Kevin Stefanski kicking the play calling

duties over to offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. We have a sample of Dorsey as a play caller in this league in Buffalo over the last handful of years. They were more pass heavy for sure, based off of what we've seen in relation to Joe Brady in Buffalo. But what are your thoughts on this new iteration, I guess, changing of the guard in Cleveland? Do they have a pulse here with Dorsey and Winston? Yeah, I don't really see it. I mean, they traded away Murray Cooper, so their best receiver is probably Njoku at this point. You know, they don't have much else on the outside. Jameis Winston is the kind of guy who will give his receivers a chance. He'll also give the defenders a chance.

And so without people getting open consistently, like, yeah, he had that really good season in Tampa Bay, but it was like, you know, he had good receivers to throw to. So I'm a little bit skeptical of how that's going to work especially with just how dysfunctional this offense has been all year I'm not sure that Jameis Winston is the salve that just fixes everything um but it should be an improvement I think I think there's just an like you see this with teams all the time right when they're when their starting quarterback has been struggling replaced, whether it's by injury or just being benched for performance,

we see a little boost. We see the energy levels rise. We see the effort, even if it just lasts a game or two, like there's a little bit of a shift where the locker room can sort of talk themselves into like, hey, things are different now.

And there's a chance for that. But I think the shift has sailed. I think this team is too far gone and I don't think they have the talent to turn it around. It's just chance for that, but I think the ship has sailed. I think this team is too far gone, and I don't think they have the talent to turn it around. It's just a question of do you get good Jameis or bad Jameis on any given day? I think there's going to be some 30-point losses and then some, wow, how do they win that game kind of moments from here on out. It's just going to be super tough to predict when those are going to be.

It's hard to think of it because Baltimore is a buzzsaw right now, Connor, but they've already given one of those out this season they were lost at home to the raiders they've historically had those like just what the heck just happened here games uh historically at times uh i don't know if this is a week but we could see some yolo balls the ravens giving up a lot of explosives this season what are your thoughts on uh this change in cleveland this matchup is really interesting i'm not gonna lie i started uh writing this up and i don't know if it's like, I think Clark brought up a good point. Like, I don't know if James really affects the win loss column, but the amount of fun that we're going to

have watching is going to be through the roof. The office is going to be able to score sometimes, but he just might throw two or three interceptions or pick sixes on the way to doing it. But that's way, way better than what we've seen, which is the Sean Watson, just spraying the ball, being late on everything, not going through his reads, running too much when he shouldn't. It's been a complete disaster. You brought up Ken Dorsey being a little bit more pass heavy. 2022 is OC, 6% pass rate over expectation.

In 2023, weeks one through 10, when he was OC, 5% pass rate over expectation. Now this week, obviously, James winston and they get to play against the ravens team that's a lot a lot and i think marlon humphrey's banged up it looks like i think i don't know if he'll play to be honest today recording on a wednesday so yeah i i'm i'm interested i mean again i think it's a nine right now for this game like i don't know if i really want to play that but um i'm interested in props for sure i'm gonna have i i messaged our chat today i'm gonna be betting all it's on james winston no matter what the number is i mean he could easily throw for like 350 to 400 here and you'll still be getting good odds on that so i'm excited

we don't know who's in the receiving end of that uh per se at the moment we have no idea cedric tilden uh i think jerry judy sucks too that's the issue is like i'm down on judy i think uh elijah moore has been just like a career disappointment as well. There's probably a misfit of like career disappointment toys in Cleveland that they got to throw to. I think there was one other backup beyond Cedric Tillman who I thought was okay, but I'll do a deep dive.

We'll see. We'll see what's going on. Yeah. It's not going to be pretty, but it might be fun. So we'll see. All right. What do you got Clark? Anything else? No, I just, I wanted to like, as exciting as it is,

I can't bring myself to bet the Browns because the Ravens are just an absolute wagon right now. They're my highest rated team in the last four years, outside of a stretch in 2022 for the Bills. They're like really, really just playing well and and you you can point to their defense and say well they're giving up explosive plays but also look at the schedule they face like they've they've faced an absolute gauntlet of offenses um so i'm not and they were really good last year defense granted they have been coaching they have some different pieces sure but I'm not worried about their defense yet.

I think it's just a sort of schedule dysfunction that has created some of those numbers. I'll tell you what, I was feeling pretty good about some preseason predictions. Baltimore goes into Dallas in week three, both 0-2. I had both teams missing the playoffs, and man, the Ravens look like a buzzsaw right now uh so do not feel so good about the Ravens missing the playoffs uh now that they are like legit Super Bowl contenders uh still think that there's something to be said that this defense is you know overperforming a little bit um but we'll see I mean right now that's just the wrong that's just a bad take so uh that's still gonna play itself out we'll see how that goes but uh yeah i mean lamar's playing fantastic it just continues to get better i think

as a passer every year dynamic run game with with derrick henry and they're surviving and making a i think a poor offensive line look okay um yeah yeah when you have when you're a defender and you have to commit to two different people that are lamar Jackson, Derek Henry, it's just, it's just too difficult. Like they're playing the game on easy mode right now. You see so many offenses struggling in the NFL because everything is a grind. Everything is, you know, trying to like, look at the chiefs. It's like my homes has to play his best football to kind of keep that offense going and Ravens. It looks like, okay,

now this guy's got 20 yards of open field to run with. Like it's just on every play it's wild. And I think it's just, you know, great scheming, great looks like, okay, now this guy's got 20 yards of open field to run with. It's just on every play. It's wild. And I think it's just great scheming, great players, great coaching, just all the way down the line. Yeah, hard to argue with that. We have some massive favorites this week. We haven't really seen this that often this season, but we have four teams right now that are like, I don't know, almost double digits. Now, I guess this new news here with Carolina, with Bryce Young having to start this week

with the car accident, thumb injury to Andy Dalton, that's climbed out to 10. We have a big number in Cleveland and Baltimore, as we just said. Just kind of a weird one too. Just what do we think this week? Do you have a favorite that you like at a big number or just, what do we think this week? And are you, do you have a favorite that you like at a big number? Are there any live dogs here,

Clark, like, uh, in the double digits? Cause it's just, it's been hard. I know small sample. Uh,

I think you'd probably think it's noise, but we had that early stab the season where it was like underdogs and touchdown or more like nine and two straight up for a little bit or something crazy like that. Uh, what are your thoughts on some of the bigger ones this week? Yeah. I mean, honestly, I think a lot of it is justified, right?

I mean, the Lions, the Lions are the kind of team where like, they will lean on you on offense. And if you don't stop them, they will just score touchdowns. They have so many ways to move the ball down the field. You know, they went up against what had been the best defense in the NFL last week and the Vikings and just said, look, we're going to design plays. We're going to ignore all the crazy stuff you're doing on the back end and just say, look, this guy should be open. Throw it to him. And every time the guy was open, he threw it to him.

And so I think against Tennessee, like that should continue. I mean, you can never really predict something like every team has let down spots and that's kind of what it's part of the price right but that's not what i'm looking for to fade um kind of the same thing with like we just talked about the ravens i'm not getting in the way of that truck right now um the bronco now boat next laying 10 is i was gonna ask like what's your broncos take i mean that seems like a wild number against anyone. It is a wild number, but here's the thing. I saw that on the schedule, and I was like, oh, man, Broncos, extra rest,

defense playing well. This is going to be a good spot for Denver at home. I've been enjoying watching Knicks progress. I think this is sort of an underrated thing that people are talking about. It's like, there's like, Bo Knicks sucks. And I think there's some evidence to justify that opinion. But I also think there's some evidence that like, Sean Payton gave him too complex of an offense from day one and just sort of run it. And like, you know, there's these, I don't know if you saw a clip of him like, getting multiple delayed game penalties, because he's reading out the play of the team,

and it's like a 22nd play call, you call. It's just too much to give a rookie. And so I think we're seeing him settle down some. And yeah, he's missing some throws. But those guys were open. And if you give him an offense where these guys are getting open, he's going to start hitting them. We've seen him be accurate in the past. So I think the Broncos are kind of arrow up.

It's just this spread is out of control. And the Pan know scoring seven points against the commander's events um is pretty embarrassing and now now andy don't stop playing it's bryce young who you know sucks so again not one that i want to get in the way up there um i think i think the underdog that i like most this week is probably the raiders at home against the chiefs there's you know this is sort of a bad blood kind of game, and the Chiefs don't have the offensive weapons to just pour it on a team. You know, maybe the Chiefs defense does their job, and the Raiders score seven points, in which case, you know, bye-bye spread.

But, like, I think the Raiders can kind of – I think it was the same spread they had when they faced the Ravens, and I think it's kind of the same. Gernot Minshew is just that plucky underdog that just plays well in games where he's counted out. So it's a game the same. Gernot Minshew is just that plucky underdog that just plays well in games where he's counted out. So it's, it's a game where I probably lean towards waiters.

Yeah. That one makes the most sense probably to be in a divisional game on the road. You know, the chiefs maybe want to get back after that Christmas Christmas game too. So maybe they are not sleeping on this quite as much. What are your thoughts on the chiefs? I mean,

obviously your squad, you had the rollover parlay, basically that you probably wisely cashed out the right time, maybe a week early, but easy to say in hindsight after what they did to the Niners. But a little infusion there with DeAndre Hopkins coming into town gives them a little bit of light bulb. I mean, obviously exciting to see what they were doing

coming into the season. Hollywood Brown comes in. You bring in a dynamic player like Xavier Worthy. Yeah, maybe you get Travis Kelsey in like, you know, the tail end, put him in bubble wrap, get him in the playoffs. But now those guys kind of fall to the side with injuries. You have to revive and dust off Juju Smith-Schuster, and he gets a hamstring injury, which, of course, he could not stay healthy.

But now, again, Hopkins in town. How are you feeling about the Chiefs as we move forward? Yeah, I mean, I think they're fine. I think their goal is to win the Super Bowl. And they're doing whatever it takes to win. And you can say they've gotten lucky a few times, and they have. But they're also putting themselves in a position to win every game. And that's all you can really do as a team. I don't think they're going to go undefeated. That was predicated on a lot of things that are no longer true, including the fact that they're not my highest rated team in the league. The Ravens are.

But their defense has been playing well. You know, they carried that over from last year without LeGarrius Sneed, which has been impressive. And I think they're trying to find what works and gear up for a playoff run. Like, I think their perspective on the season is just different. Like they don't care about the regular season. And I think they're, you know, they're going to be fine. They're going to, they're probably going to host another AFC championship game.

Like even with how well the Ravens are playing, I think the chiefs probably end up with a record that's good enough to get there. And I think it's going to be a fun playoffs. And I, you know, they continue to be a bet on our packs in terms of Super Bowl or playoffs. Because when you have Pat from Holmes and Andy Reid, it doesn't really matter what else you have, especially with this quality of defense. So I'm not worried about them at all. You know, I think they're on the path that they need to be on. But they're just not a team that's going to like do what the Ravens are doing in the regular season and win by however many points they're winning by.

Sounds like we have Clark's AFC championship game matchup there, Connor. I want to revive our discussion. I don't know if you remember where your call-outs were in the preseason. Do you want to, no, it's shaking me off. As we stand now, it's a call back. What are you looking for in terms of conference championship games? Give me your AFC championship game matchup and your NFC championship game matchup. Yeah, so I don't remember.

You asked me if I remember. I don't remember who I picked. But so AFC, I have – it's kind of chalky. I have Chiefs, Bills. AFC is a little tough though. I have Chiefs. And after the Chiefs, it's like, I don't know. I guess we could go Ravens, obviously.

I think that's fair at this point. That's probably the chalk outside of the Chiefs. And then NFC, Lions. And then you could tell me any of the NFC North teams. Well, at least the Packers and the Vikings, I'd probably believe you. But I'm going to go with the Eagles. And I know that's a little bit of a contrarian take. Super Bowl pick.

Eagles were your Super Bowl winner, actually. Were they? Okay. Forget what you had. I know you had Eagles. I had Eagles futures. I know. I just don't remember what I said on the show.

So a couple of things on the Eagles. I think that their offense, obviously with Lane Johnson healthy, A.J. Brown healthy, I think that they're going to be a good offense down the stretch. And defensively, they made some changes in the secondary that I think will be impactful. Cooper DeJean's playing a little bit better in the slot. And that matters. They were just so bad defensively.

They had a bunch of new guys and were just trash again the first five games, six games. Now we have a one-game sample, two-game sample of them moving, and it was against the Giants. So how much does that really matter I think we'll learn more but I mean it's really tough to be there was very little margin to become be much worse than they were uh like early in the season so um I'm excited about this team I just to Clark's point that he's brought up I think two years in a row I don't think Jalen Hurts is that good but I think in the system he can be good so yeah that's fair uh clark where you at i

think you know and you can tell me if i'm wrong it sounds like chiefs ravens uh what else you got yeah yeah chiefs ravens probably chalky but i think that's where we're headed uh the bills the bills are kind of the wild card there that i think and and even the texans you know like i think there's a lot of problems with the way houston's been playing but they've been winning games uh you know you've got cj stroud who has the ability to be a top level playing, but they've been winning games. You know, you've got CJ Stroud, who has the ability to be a top level quarterback, but they need to work out some Kings and they need Nico Collins back. Their defense is playing really well.

I feel like the Texans are kind of mirroring the Chiefs a little bit in that their offense is not what you would want it to be, but their defense is covering up for a lot of those holes. And the thing about teams like that is when the quarterback starts clicking at the right time, like they can make a super run. So Texans are kind of the wild card there, I think. And then in the NFC, you know, Chalk is Lions for sure. They proved it this week.

I bet on the Vikings. They proved it in my face. And I think I can see them facing probably one of the Vikings, Eagles, or 49ers would be my three top. The 49ers, I think, have some question marks right now, and especially if IU never comes back. But I think that they're pretty has improved as a player each year. And I think we kind of view him as static, and he's not static. He's actually leveling up his game. So I think he can cover over, and they get CMC back, which would really help. Having CMC and Mason

back there, I think takes some of the pressure off the pass game. And then I think they can get it together. I think they can get it together and win the division and that puts them in line to kind of make a run. And then the last team I mentioned is the Vikings because I just think that they're so well coached. Their defense is really good. It's caused problems for a lot of quarterbacks, and I think they can use that to try to establish leads. And if they have a lead, then I'm going to have all faith in Sand Arnold to kind of close out the game.

Yeah. No, I like that too. And I echo the sentiment on Purdy. I think the Purdy discourse is pretty wild. It wasn't great against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are pretty damn good. Spags, obviously, I think is kind of coaching out of his mind here in the last couple of years.

They've drafted really well. They've drafted depth in the back end, and you're seeing that kind of come to fruition. But I don't want to bury the Niners yet either. I think they just don't match up well against the Chiefs, who seem to have their number for sure. So I'm going to stay with my preseason picks, because I remember what I had in the preseason.

Convenient, I think, for Connor to forget what he had. I'll look it up. Real convenient. But I don't feel great about some of it. I had the Texans and the Chiefs. I do have concerns, too, about the Texans continue to rely on third down for C.J. Stroud to be a hero. It's harder to do without Nico Collins in the mix. Obviously he's coming back at some point, but again, the defense is great.

I really like everything that D'Amico Ryans is doing there. Bills would be the team. Maybe if I were to mix that up, I think the Bills very much in the mix. I kind of want to hold on to my somehow anti-Ravens take that this is not that team necessarily all the way. Because I think the bills are obviously with josh allen anything can happen on the other side i was lions in packers the packers i'm a little uneasy about the defense there uh but i also believe in the coaching i think that

unit can on the defensive side can get better as the season goes on and uh jordan love i think has all the talent in the world to kind of elevate that team so lions feel like a buzzsaw on that side and uh can they survive the loss of Hutchinson? I mean, they blitzed their face off against Minnesota. They blitzed like 55% of the snaps against Sam Donalds is by far the highest in the Aaron Glenn era here. Is this their answer? Are they just going to become a version of the Vikings or what Denver's doing this year? And just kind of, you know, peel back and just blitz every single down. I'll be interested to see how they adapt

because obviously it's been kind of a one-man wrecking crew and he's no longer there. So it's going to be interesting. It's going to be some good football. Some good football teams on the stretch. The secondary is playing really well for the Lions. You've got to give them props. I realize I never made a choice.

49ers would have been it. So I'm actually calling for a rematch on both sides. Chiefs-Ravens, Lions- 49ers, the most boring prediction ever. They're all still really good, man. Like they're all still really good. Like, you know, they're running it back for a reason. I like the Texans call out too with them being a dark horse because they had Nico Collins back too.

And I think he matters a lot for Stroud. So yeah, that defense is really good. And then they've had some cluster injuries in the back half and they're surviving them too so when that team gets healthy uh if they get another injury those guys got some game reps early like there's a lot to like about what's going on with houston bookend edge rushers that are a problem uh they just got darwin co-autry back in the middle also they're gonna be able to really bring pressure from the interior and the edges now you know there's you know bullish on the texans again

it's just like run run pass crap that's just like can we get cj stroud like a you know second and six like you know it's just it's been problematic so uh but man he's he's damn good too your eagles are catching some steam uh this week so yeah let's touch on that game. I mean, that's a good game. Some injuries in the back half of the Cincy defense that I think matter a little bit here, but you're moving a little bit, two and a halfs closing up to three. No, I'm sorry, moving the other way here a little bit.

48s in change is the total or so. This is going to be a test for what Connor you're talking about here with this revamped secondary here, obviously Cincinnati, I mean, Joe Burrow, uh,

Clark noted Burrow hater, uh, according to our four for four discord, uh, he's cooking though, playing some good football. Uh, you're going to see some different looks here.

Connor, give me the floor here first to talk about, uh, Eagles and Bengals. Yeah, I think I laid it out. Um, initially they're like kind of with what I like from this Eagles offense. The. Yeah, I think I laid it out initially there,

like kind of with what I like from this Eagles offense. The reality is, I mean, this Bengals defense just hasn't played well at all. And when you look at this Eagles team, I think when they function best, they're able to run the ball and the passing game, you know, works as a function of the running game. And I think they're gonna be able to implement that very easily here against this Bengals front that, frankly, hasn't played all that well this year. So if the Eagles can run the ball,

get Saquon going, uh, it makes Jalen hurts life way, way easier. And it's, I mean, it's not like the Bengals secondary has played well either. So if they need to go pass heavy,

they can, I think they're going to go run heavy or a little bit run heavy and pass the ball as well. And then defensively, um, I mean, I'm anticipating a better performance. I would,

I, they're still probably not very good in totality, and they're playing against the Bengals who have consistently, I feel like, improved on a week-to-week basis and kind of gotten their feet under them a little bit from the beginning of the season. So I kind of like the Eagles in this spot, again, because I want to be on the Eagles,

but it's not like I'm running to the window here to bet them. Clark, where are you at on this one? It's going to be a good one, I think. Yeah, I got in on the Eagles early at three, two and a half. Nice. I mean, it might bounce back up there. I don't know. This is kind of a game where I think there will be some real fights.

But I think the Eagles are still a good team fundamentally. You can talk about the dysfunction. You can talk about, you know, hate uh the head coach sirianni i just don't like just don't like his attitude um you can talk about the the sort of play calling issues and jalen hurts like struggles with the blitz and doesn't really have a lot of adaptability in the pocket um all those things are issues but like they've been issues for several years and all the eagles do is move the ball down the field and generally score touchdowns.

Their defense is playing better this year than it did last year by a pretty good margin. And Saquon Barkley makes a huge difference. Like having a running back of his quality behind an offensive line, even without Maialata, you know, they handle the Giants defensive line fairly well. And the Giants defensive line has been playing well. Granted, they didn't have Thibodeau, but still, I'm not overly concerned

about this offense or defense. And I think the Bengals are a team that I don't really have a good explanation for why they're struggling the last few weeks. Joe Burrow is, you know, he has good games and bad games. The defense, I think, you know, getting some guys back on the defensive line is important,

but the gap they have to close from how bad they were, I think is just too big for those guys to close. And so I think this is a game where the Eagles have an advantage in the trenches. I think that's going to carry them. Whereas the Bengals have an advantage at quarterback. I think that advantage isn't going to be realized because of losing in the trenches, basically. I think it could be another like heavy saquon game here uh very much for uh the way that these teams match up uh what's interesting

the cincinnati like the questions their offensive line have done a great job keeping burrow clean this season and so i think that that's going to be kind of impactful here cincinnati doesn't do a great job it's a one-man pressure wrecking crew. It's basically Trey Hendrickson and no one else is even kind of getting home. The problem is that Cincinnati in the back half is, I think, in trouble here with injuries to Geno Stone and Vaughn Bell at safety. So since he's done a great job of limiting big plays, that can also be opponent-driven. At the same time like philly

puts a lot of pressure on you to be able to you know slow down uh aj brown so we need to i want to feel better about this side here in the eagle side specifically if i get injury news if you know some of these injuries are happening on the cincy side then i definitely think the eagles are the side uh another interesting one buffalo's on the road in Seattle. Uh, this is three basically across the board and Buffalo side, uh, 46 and a half, 47 is the total here. This is interesting. You know, we've had some like struggles, Josh Allen struggles historically, uh, against the Ravens.

We heard that a couple weeks ago when the Ravens gave them fits. Well, some of that is, you know, bad coaches now in Seattle. Uh, do they have the dogs to execute it? I think a healthy version of Seattle's defense can. They just haven't been healthy for very much of the season. Now they make a trade, a linebacker. So that actually, I think, complicates things this week because you probably have to put in rookies and backups

before you kind of bring in some of the new guys. So, Clark, what do you think here? Buffalo on the road against Seattle. Yeah, tough to decipher with all the injuries injuries DK Metcalf may play this week. He's been huge for that passing game. I think Tyler Lockett and JSN are both very good role players, but DK Metcalf has been the alpha and it's been clear. So I think without him in the lineup, that really changes this offense. Ginoith is you know making plays but a lot of them are just deacon makeup and then on defense like you said how do you how do you make sense of this defense that went through a stretch where they had you know four starting defensive linemen out

and then they all got back and then they they went through you know three plus defensive backs out so like we haven't seen this defense really come together and be full strength you know we know mike mcdonald can scheme up a good defense, but have their failures been they just don't have the talent or are they just not healthy? And I don't know what the answer to that question is because we haven't got any evidence of it. So this is kind of one where I'm trying to make my way

through the injury report. Seattle caught some money today, which might indicate some optimism for some of those players. And I think if fully healthy, I think making them a full three-point home dog is pretty generous. But I have my doubts as to whether or not they're going to be fully healthy. So it's hands off, read the injury reports, pay attention to the news, and react. Yeah, Rayshon Jenkins is out. Connor, Rick Wolin's been really good this season when he's played.

Clark kind of highlighted it. We just never had the front and the back end of the defense healthy at the same time outside of basically like week one, week two. And they were awesome. So what are your thoughts here on Bill Seahawks? Yeah, these are not the type of things that I bet something that's minus 110 on, right? Like this is just like, I'm not doing that

because I think you guys laid out well. Like they played pretty well the first few games then played like, we're literally like the worst defense in the league for like three games or two games. And then played really well against the Falcons last week. And, you know, I thought again,

not even full health has played way better. So now I think they'll be able to run the ball against the bills. So I think Kenneth Walker could have a, you know, a bigger game there and help alleviate some of the concerns of DK Metcalf. But like Clark said, like without DK Metcalf, I just don't think the Tyler Lockett or Jason are good enough to consistently move the ball with, um, Seattle has been like one of the leaders and pass it over expectation with Ryan grub this season, uh, pretty consistently. So

like, I don't think that that's enough. So for me, it's enough to stay off of the Seahawks. Um, but I think I am long-term bullish on them as long as they can just get some guys healthy. Like I want to be excited about them. They've shown flashes of being fun offensively and playing good defense, but it's just never been at the same time. I think this team was going to be who I thought they were going to be

if they stayed healthy. It just didn't happen. And now it's getting rough on the offensive side too, which is just tough. Yeah, and you got to give the B bills some credit for what they're doing you know like last week against the titans they were down i think it was 10-0 uh they started off really slow and they just kind of they didn't abandon their game they just kept doing what they do they moved the ball down the field they had some chunk plays score touchdowns and then all of a sudden they completely

blow out the things um and i i think that's kind of a testament to a good team is how they handle those kinds of situations like we saw the Ravens also got down against the Bucks to start that game and we saw them just come back and just no sweat by the end right like those those are the kind of wins that really convinced me that the team is next level good so um I think there's there's a good chance that the Bills are a little bit out of the Seahawks class but but they're also three-point road favorites, which is a big number on the road. I love, too, that towards the end of the game with the Bills, instead of just trying to sit on their 10-point lead or 7-point lead, they were aggressively passing to try and make sure that they did not lose that game,

which to me I thought was cool because a lot of these teams play to not lose. They were playing to win, and I like that. And especially the addition of Mari Cooper. I think like this guy didn't even know like any of the routes. Like, I mean, there was the clip of Keon Coleman telling him where to run mid play when he got the touchdown. I think he's a huge addition for them. They need a guy who can separate and get open.

Shakir can kind of do that sometimes. Keon Coleman can't separate for his life. I mean, you know that it's like, and Dalton Kin kinkade i think is fine in the middle like space but again you can't you can't really run an offense through a tight end uh most of the time so like i think they're all they have a lot of good ancillary pieces and amari cooper can kind of be that like maybe not true alpha but like a good you know what number one piece i think this offense yeah i mean i'm squarely on amari cooper still really good at football like i think a lot of what we saw earlier this season was, is definitely quarterback based.

Same thing tail in the last year. I think he's still, this might not be like prime young Amari Cooper, but like he's still good. There's still a lot of tread left on the tire and, you know, giving him to Josh Allen, I think is going to be pretty exciting down the stretch. I wanted to talk about bears and commanders um still on the board here bears two and a half point road favorite that tells me the markets feel pretty confident

that this is not going to be jayden daniels i feel like in in a different life these would never be on the board early in the week um and they just are all the time now clark what are your thoughts on i guess this matchup and that overall that like that takeaway like these just are all the time now, Clark. What are your thoughts on, I guess, this matchup and that overall, like that takeaway? Like these, just be off the board in terms of like a market-moving quarterback playing or not playing. Yeah, I mean, I'm not – I don't have any experience on the bookmaking side, but my suspicion is that they'll keep this open for lower limits in the hopes that anyone who has any kind of real news will bet it, right? And so they're fishing for information.

And two and a half is a line that says, hey, if you find confirmation that Jayden Daniels is out, you know, bet this two and a half up to a three. And if you find, you know, confirmation that he's going to play, like bet the commanders to be at least pick them, probably favorites in this game. And I think that's kind of what's happening.

So you're not going to get a huge bet down, but if you have that information, go for it. I'm hands off this game. I think even if they make the announcement, I don't know that I can bet. I have so many conflicting angles on this game. I've been really terrible at predicting Bears games. I made some money betting them early because I was like, wow, Caleb Williams isn't ready. And then he just kind of ascended very quickly.

And my model was not keeping up with the pace that he was ascending. And now he just kind of like ascended very quickly. And my model was not keeping up with the pace that he was ascending. And now he's got a bye week. I think you can say that his success has come against really bad defenses. And I think that there's some validity to discounting the numbers in that circumstance. But I also think that a rookie quarterback who clearly has the talent to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league, who has a series of games like that also just gets comfortable. And like watching him run the no huddle, watching him recognize that the defense is so tired that all he has to do is get his player to the line and run a running play. Like just hand the ball up the middle.

And DeAndre Swift is going to have six yards of cushion because the defense is so gassed. Just doing that again and again against the Panthers and the Jaguars, his understanding of the game was on display, and his translating that understanding into decision-making at a very quick pace was very impressive to watch. And so I think we are seeing the progression of an excellent quarterback, and that's not something I want to bet against. But the commanders and Jaden Daniels, if he's healthy, are completely the real deal. Should not be faded as some kind of like, well, he's going to regress. Like, no, don't expect that regression to come

because everything is so easy for them. So this is just a game I'm excited to watch as a fan. Hopefully, you know, Jayden Daniels plays and it's all fun. If not, the Bears should be able to take care of business. Yeah. I don't think Clark's really understanding it, Connor. I mean, I do think that they wouldn't say like it's the end-all be-all in terms of how he was going to be in terms of projecting him as a pro,

but this is such a pivotal confidence-building stretch for Caleb after the slow start, and we saw it coming, right? It was just like, look, there's a six-game stretch of defenses that are coming up here, and it becomes concerning if he can't get it going at some point here. But it happened right away. He did it right away against the bad teams. And yes, you can't argue that it hasn't been against bad defenses,

and it continues. The Commanders are not a good defense, despite the fact that they've been competitive because their offense continues to push them forward. They've been better, and I think you get Dan Quinn, fresh looks. forward. They've been better. I think you get Dan Quinn, fresh looks. I think they've been better than we expect. It's still secondary. He has some questions.

They still got the Cardinals coming up. They got some other soft ones still to come on the Bears side. Should we jump it to two and a half if it looks like Jane Daniels is not in this game? Yeah, I kind of – I mean, if Jane Daniels doesn't play,'t play i'll probably i mean i'm not even a sides and totals guy i'll probably take a little bit of bears uh two and a half and try and i'll just pick off something stale you know and find it uh i i mean i i think i agree with everything you guys are saying like caleb just is he's getting better each week and like that's just like obvious even from like a not even like a opponent standpoint it's just like very clear he's

going through reads faster he's making better decisions like he's more accurate with things that are open. He was missing open throws all the time. The first like two or three weeks, like there was like, and those are things that like were obviously fixable. And then beyond that, he was making quicker decisions and better decisions. So like the,

all those things he's becoming more comfortable with. And again, another good matchup here. I expect the office to have a ton of success on the ground or through the air. Obviously this commander's offense, I think is very, very good.

I, this is what I tweeted out. I was getting getting, I'm getting blasted for as we're recording. So I said, the commanders have not faced a single defense in the top elite top half of the league in EPA per play so far. And it's the Bucks 22nd, Giants 21st, Bengals 24th, Cardinals 29th, Browns 17th, Ravens 27 27th Panthers 31st. Um, some of those evens just have good like sections about them. And like, like the Ravens are a really good run defense. The Browns,

I think are probably better than 17th, uh, healthy, but they haven't really been playing like it. Um, all the rest are really bad defenses, but that doesn't mean that like, like Jane Daniels is still awesome.

He's still playing really well. The office is playing well. It just has come against terrible opponents, just like the Bears have. So I tweeted that out. I knew I was fishing a little bit. I was going to catch some hate, but you know,

just the stats, right? Like, you know, nothing hurts there. What if you take out the Washington game though, for those defenses? Well,

that's the question is you take out the Washington game. I mean, I can do that, but do you think any of those defenses are good? Like without the Washington game? So I have the Ravens ranked 12th, Browns 13th and Giants 14th on defense. So there's no like, you know, defenses that are blowing on out of the water, but like there's some decent defense, especially when the Giants had Thibodeau healthy.

Um, you know, when Drew Phillips is on the field, Connor, your boy, Drew Phillips, love Drew Phillips. That's like my MVPA. I might buy a Drew Phillips is on the field corner. Your boy, Drew Phillips, Drew Phillips. That's like my MBPA. I'm gonna buy a Drew Phillips Jersey. If he keeps like getting these slot wide receiver unders, I mean, this is like, but just printing money on fading guys facing Drew Phillips.

Yeah. I think we thought the giants defense would be bad, but I think they've been pretty good. The bucks have dealt with a bunch of injuries that they didn't have when they faced, you know, Washington. Um,

some of these, some of these, you know, the Browns, what can you really make of their defense with how poorly their offense is playing on the field all the time? Ravens, again, we've gone through their schedule. It's ridiculous.

And then Panthers, obviously they're terrible, but Jaden D'Ano's team played that game much. I think a case can be made that they faced a relatively easy schedule, but it's not so much that it's discounting the quality of offense they're putting on the field, in my opinion.

Yeah, that's fair. Where do you have the Bears defense, just out of curiosity? Oh, number two. Okay. So I think that was kind of more of my point was like, these are all, I would say, average for the most part to good defenses, like average to bad defenses for the most part. And then I think the Bears defense is good.

I think that was kind of like my overarching. Yeah, right. They've never really seen a top five defense for the most part in a lot of, when fully healthy, they're not even fully healthy either, I guess right now. It's like Kyler Gordon didn't practice again and Andrew Kwan, Briscoe. Yeah, and those guys matter, right? I mean, we saw them, they struggled a little bit in the secondary and then their last game for the bye.

Yeah. The last game I wanted to touch on here, and then you guys can touch on anything else you wanted to, is we have the return of Tua here. Looks like, as of now, hosting the Cardinals here, Miami, three-and-a-half point favorites, 46, 46-and-a-half is the total. Clark, what are your thoughts on the Tua situation, what's making the Dolphins moving forward?

Back half of the schedule for Miami is just a gauntlet for them if they're going to have a shot. So they have a little bit of a path here with some winnable games, but it still looks like a path forward to the playoffs is going to be tough for Miami. But what about this week? Yeah, I mean, first of all, the betting markets indicate that Tua's depth of play is laying three and a half.

If you, Scott, I mean. It's not Tyler Huntley. Yeah. Tyler Huntley's injured, right? So, like, it's not even, I don't even know who it is if Tua doesn't play at this point. So, yeah. So, Tua's playing. The question is, right, one, is he 100% first game back?

We see quarterbacks come off injuries this is something that i think people talk about fairly frequently and typically don't perform at the highest level in the first game back we saw it with two of um a couple years ago he came back first game off of his concussion absence i think it was against pittsburgh and through like really bad interceptions or dropped interceptions and they barely won the game. They were favored to win big. So, so there's, there's some of that, but I also, I have some broader concerns about, about Tua and his offense. Like they, they kind of fell down the stretch of last year and didn't play well, you know, in their, in their last few games, granted they were dealing with some injuries, but they just weren't clicking on offense. And

you know, when you have an offense that is uh reliant on scheme basically like their offensive line is not good they rely on to a processing information so quickly and that offense moving everyone around to create open space and him just pulling the trigger and firing he does that better than anyone in the league but when you're relying on that and defenses have enough tape they can start to kind of close those routes down and that's what i worry about they came out this year and they didn't really play well in offense against the Jags. They had two big plays. That was it.

We now know the Jags defense is not good. In game two against the Bills, they were terrible even before Tua got hurt. So we've got two games, you know, coming into the year with some skepticism, coming out of the gate poorly. I'm not convinced that the offense is going to just bounce right back to what we used to. I think there's some permanent problems here. And the level of play that they had without Tua was so bad that you'd have to make Tua such a massive upgrade over these backup quarterbacks to justify rating them as one of the league's

top offenses. And I don't think we're there yet. So I have some concerns about the offense both this week and moving forward. But the market doesn't seem to be that concerned because, you know, laying three and a half, three against a pretty decent Cardinals team is, you know, a vote of confidence by the market. Connor, you have the Tua Tramp stamp on your lower back. You've been an original Tuanon member from the jump. What are your thoughts on Clark's take and the Tua return? Yeah, we, we is Tua non.

We willed Tua back from the grave for the fourth time, you know, resurrected him. I, I mean, I truly don't even know all these guys still playing at this point. I, I guess we talked about it last time. Like it wouldn't surprise me if he does play, but like he shouldn't play. You know, I think that's, you know, my take. I mean, he's just a competitor. He loves football. It's his life. So, you know i think that's you know my take i mean he's just a competitor loves football this is his life so you know i get it um from that standpoint obviously we're worried about his health just because the guy just can't stay healthy um but i mean it was

very clear like the timing and accuracy that he has in like the shorts intermediate areas is so so so important to this offense that no one else can even come close that they have on their roster or like that is available right now like Like they would, there are quarterbacks obviously in the league who can do what he does and probably better, but they don't have access to those guys. And they're like Clark said, their offensive line sucks. They don't really have reliable running game. And I don't know, Mike McDaniel slash the quarterbacks weren't able to get the ball to Tyreek into a, or Tyreek and a waddle enough, like in space. And so I would probably not have this at three and a half I thought that was a little bit steep I think three is about right but um I don't know it's for me it's like I I think the two is probably

gonna be back and probably be fine and it wouldn't surprise me to see this offense like playing uh you know league average or above for basically the rest of the season at this point. Yeah. Just not a big believe in the Cardinals, but I also definitely want to see it first on Miami. It looks like, you know, there's some three and a half that are, you know, could be moving back to three. So it depends on what that action looks like here soon too. Any other games you want to highlight Clark before we let you go? No, I don't think so.

Lots of injury news to work through this week. Yeah. So many of these games and stuff. As you remember, the beauty of doing this on a Wednesday is we have limited information for sure, but context definitely matters. But we appreciate you joining us. As always, wish you continued success.

I want to thank you for your role in driving success that we had together at 4-4. We miss you. I know you're still chiming in. You're in the discord and you pop and show your face occasionally, but we, again, what you've done in your referral with Hunter, who's coming off of a great week. What is he? Five and one last week. Yeah. Great, great week for a hundred. Great dude.

And he's putting out some, some good stuff too. So I'm excited for a hundred to keep rolling, but continued success. Wish you the best of luck, buddy. Yeah. Thanks guys. All right. Come back before you take off. Make sure you subscribe. So you can come back and watch Connor, John High, slopping myself, talk props on Friday. Subscribe, take advantage.

Four, four bets. Go to four, four.com slash plans. You promo code tip off. Join us. You're going to want to get, see what those ladder prices look like when Connor starts banging those Jamis Winston overs this week. week so uh for clark and connor i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time