Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 8 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions | Seahawks, Vikings & More!

Episode Date: October 25, 2023

Welcome to the ULTIMATE Week 8 2023 NFL Betting Guide! Dive deep into the most comprehensive analysis of this week's NFL matchups, including the Seahawks, Vikings, and many more. Get the latest odds, expert predictions, and top betting tips to increase your chances of a win. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, this guide is tailored to provide insights for everyone. Don't miss out on maximizing your bets for NFL Week 8 2023. Subscribe for weekly updates and stay ahead in the game!Timestamps:0:00 Intro4:32 2023 NFL Season Overview8:17 Falcons vs. Titans Best Bets19:54 Vikings vs. Packers NFL Betting Preview30:01 Jaguars vs. Steelers Best Bets38:30 Browns vs. Seahawks NFL Betting Preview49:12 Bengals vs. 49ers NFL Week 8 Betting Preview56:10 More Looks, Leans & OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here, as always, by my friends to talk NFL Week 8 sides and totals. First, we've got to start with the man who typically adorns a chapeau on this show, but very different looking. It is Sharp Clark. What's going on, buddy? You actually look pretty good today, man. This is the result. In case you missed it last week, I was saying the Raiders defense was pretty good, and there was no way Tyson Bajent was going to look good. And Connor said, all right, if they put up 30, then you got to wear a backwards Cubs hat and assist from the pick six on defense and a very strong run game. I am here. I am. Secret Bajent man got the job done and embarrassed me. I don't know. I think it might be a new thing like you

know you can figure out you have 10 unit win weeks you actually throw in the backwards cub hat i think it's a pretty good look for you run it by the wife see what she thinks i don't know if she saw it yet but it's it's pretty good you know like you're still a young man but it's i think it's taking a few years off too uh connor maybe you should try that you're a young man too but you look old as hell how we doing yeah i mean it's because i bet i bet unders on guys like tyson bajan and it's taken like 15 years off of my life you know uh i did not bet an under on him but i i did not anticipate and not the under on his passing prop of like it was like 160 cashing because they were actually too efficient and that they didn't need to throw that's that was not in my uh cards and one of the

reasons i did not take the under because i thought did not think the raiders evens is very good so i kind of laid off of it and well i would have been right so unders forever you know yeah absolutely wild weekends uh last weekend and uh hey good for good for uh the secret bayesian man he's gonna get another shot here they will not be featured on this week's show. We are back to no buys, which is really strange. We have a full slate here in week eight, which is peculiar. They did not make the cut, but maybe you guys have a take specifically on that game we will get to here at the end. I want to remind folks that the three of us are going to be here every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern on the 444Bets YouTube channel. You should be able to find the podcast in your feed every Wednesday evening as well. Subscribe to both places so you don't miss a show.

This is free content. Subscribing goes a long way in helping us support the things that we do here at 444. We help building tools, content that are industry-leading, things that we have a ton of use for on our own and we think that you would have a lot of use for as well. So just a simple thumbs up, like subscribe comments, all those things go a long way in helping us. If we've helped you at all throughout the season, over the years, you know,

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Connor and I, along with John high slop are here on Fridays, 3. PM. Eastern on the four for four bets, YouTube channel, talking props. That's prop drop Fridays,

3. PM. Eastern. Also great time to scoop up the betting subscription to four for four. It gives you access to everything that we do. If you're still grinding your season long leagues, you want to do DFS with TJ and Daigle. Anything that we do, articles, rankings,

projections, all of it. Subscriber Discord, I think, is our favorite part. I love hanging out with our people there, sweating games on Sundays, talking bets all the time. The NBA just started as well. We are grinding that in a big way. Kevin O'Brien, very sharp, has been in the football dynasty space for years, has really gone all in over the last couple of years on the NBA and just was kind of hanging out in our discord, popping out awesome winners last year. And I wanted to take on a little bit more of a role. And we're super excited to have Kevin kind of leading and spearheading our

NBA product as well. If you'd like to bet NBA props too, it's included in everything. I go to four, four.com slash plans. Use the promo code YouTube for 25% off. It's already discounted because we're in week eight or halfway through the season. So pretty significant deal here comparatively. So check it out. Use that promo code YouTube, take 25% off of the betting subscription. All right, guys. This is a, you know, like I said, tricky week. We are definitely into the middle of the season here where we're starting to get a lot of data on these teams. We're starting to have these matchups really matter in terms of head-to-heads, positioning, kind of a team or a situation or, you know, whether it's a statistic

or something you're leaning on a little bit more this season or really anything you want to kind of talk about through the first seven weeks? Yeah, I think this, this season has been interesting in the sense that we have, we've had teams that have been periodically dominant, but have yet to put together certain strings of wins. So like the 49ers prior to two weeks ago looked like unstoppable, you know, like offense was cruising, their defense was cruising. And then they struggle against the Browns and a good defense. And despite them having back and quarterback lose that game. And then they play against another game against the Vikings and then struggle against defense. We don't think it's very good, but again, they're without key players. So how does that impact your numbers?

And then same thing with, I think, the Kansas City Chiefs, that their offenses looked uneven, but their defenses looked really good, although it might not be fully sustainable throughout the whole year. So I think it's interesting because there's a lot of parity, and I also think that there are a lot of truly terrible teams this year. There are a lot of teams where I'm just not excited at all. I mean, we talked to Clark earlier this week week and i said these slate of games suck like there are literally just like a lot of terrible games and i'm glad that we don't do the game by game previews anymore because half

the show is snooze fest so yeah it's i think it's an interesting season so far that's why we stopped doing it because we get to these games and like all right how are you going to you know drum up any interest in uh you know jets giants for instance um you know if you're outside of the tri-state area that's probably not a game that's super exciting for you this weekend uh clark scoring down pretty significantly we see the markets typically adjust though you know if you kind of look at some early season trends unders are hitting in a big way the stuff you know the water time tends to level over the season um i know it's more you're more sides than totals but totals have been something that's worked very well for you as well is there any shift in your process in terms of like how you take in that information knowing that the books are going to adjust maybe a little bit slower

um but you know anything around scoring being down or any adjustments on your end in terms of modeling or predicting games? Yeah. I mean, I've been happy to jump on early week unders in games featuring two offenses that struggle to score because the defensive shifts that we've seen over the last few years have really made it difficult to score a lot of points. Big plays are harder to come by. And so that means down to down consistency is much more valuable. And what that does is it come by. And so that means down-to-down consistency is much more valuable. And what that does is it extends drives. And so offenses that are struggling, it tends to take them more plays to get into the red zone.

And then they have to convert in the red zone, which doesn't always happen. And red zone field goals are overkillers. And so I've been really happy to jump on early week unders. And it seems like even, I mean, even this week, I jumped on an under we're going to talk talk about here shortly and it's still going down. And I think there is sort of a delayed reaction in the marketplace for some of these games,

but I'm not going crazy and betting under in every game. It has to be the right matchup, but it has been profitable this year. And I think it still is this week. Yep. That's a good point. I mean, it's,

it's inefficiency is up. It seems like red zone of inefficiency is, is really up. I'm not sure if there's like something to be said defensively that is being done in inside red zone because we're seeing some like i think fairly marginal defensive units have some pretty nice like red zone defensive units and part of me is like all right there's going to be some regression there and other parts of me are like maybe there's something schematically there that they're doing that we had to figure out so it's hard to get a sense of where that's going to regulate and what's actually signaling what's noise now at this point you know

we're seven we have seven weeks of data and it starts to feel like it's the nfl we're always going to be dealing with small samples so you have to kind of deal with what we have currently so yeah it's definitely an interesting trend so all right appreciate you guys uh sharing off the cuff with me there let's jump jump into our games this week. We're going to start in Tennessee. This one seems like a dud, but I'm pretty intrigued. Atlanta's on the road in Tennessee. FanDuel here has a two and a half still on Atlanta.

It's minus 122. There are some threes out there as well. So you can shop around depending on what you're looking for. Tannehill went down. High ankle sprain in Tennessee's week six game in London. In that spot, short notice, late night game, Malik Willis came in, basically got sacked on every play for the rest of the game. We sort of already know what Malik Willis is at this point.

We sort of already know what the Titans think of him because they used an early day two pick to stop the slide in the draft on Will Levis. And Will Levis definitely has his detractors out there. Obviously a lot of NFL teams because he's still in the draft. We heard early in the week whispers, shout out to FSM, that this would be a Levis start. It seems to be the news that's come out. And then Vrabel comes out today in a press conference,

is not confirming that. Maybe just trying to hold his cards close to his chest here and say, hey, we're going to have some Malik Willis packages too. I'm not sure whatever that means. I think just, Clark, if you're looking at this from a 50,000-foot view, I don't want to oversimplify the handicap because I'm very much torn on this game. So I actually like that we're including it, even though it doesn't feel like a great game.

This is a back-to-back road game for a Des ridder led offense that's favored on the road against the mike variable coach team at home off a bye um talk to me about this one are you suggesting that desmond ridder led offense is a bad thing here it's not great buddy it's not great look here's the thing i'll say there were two at the goal line fumbles for them last week that changed the narrative around our perception of what that team is if they get home there. They go on the road in the division and beat the Buccaneers. We feel much better about who the Falcons are, but that's not what happens.

Bad players and bad teams make bad mistakes. So I want to kind of couch it a little bit. But, yeah, I mean, it would definitely have a different opinion on opinion on I think what our thoughts are on the Falcons if they get home on those yeah I mean I came away from that game very impressed with the Falcons they went up against the top 10 defense and Desmond Ritter was excellent and uh they didn't have Bijan Robinson so it was all on Ritter Algier wasn't running very well Ritter was efficient he had a high completion percentage he had a great overall game. When the game was tied, they had the ball deep in their own territory.

He hit Kyle Pitts for a first down. It gets overturned. So he comes right back and hits Pitts for a longer pass, sets up the game-winning field goal, and wins the game. One of the fumbles was a bad. It was a sack fumble. He had three fumbles in the red zone. One was a sack fumble.

That was bad. One was a bust snap on an attempted sneak at the goal line. You know, that happens like you can't, you can't do that, but that type of play doesn't reflect poorly on Desmond Ritter as a quarterback. Tua also fumbles a bunch of snaps.

Doesn't mean he's a bad quarterback. And the third one was Ritter actually made a great play and ran to the pylon to get a touchdown and a defender pops the ball out at the last second. And it's ridiculous that that's a turnover. It was was a good play none of that makes me think less of Desmond Ritter I thought it was his best game as a pro and I think he's built a lot moving forward a lot of trust in his teammates and and he's really showing that um so I do think that the Falcons are and winning helps right like they're not a great team but they're four and two because

they play an easy schedule and they found a way to win these games. And those types of teams that tend to outperform, they sort of have a tendency to fulfill their own expectations of themselves because they, they think they're good and they start playing like a confident team. And then their defense has been really, really good, especially the run defense. This Titans offense needs to run the ball and struggles against man because they don't have separators. They don't have super good talent on the outside. DeAndre Hopkins is past his prime. That's it. When they can't run the ball, it's a lot of dropbacks, boring offense, bad offensive

line, no separation. And the Falcons play good run defense and play a lot of man. So I don't think this is a good matchup for the Titans, especially if it's Will Levis. But there's that uncertainty of we don't know who Will Levis is. You know, like maybe he's been pretty good in practice. Maybe he just, you know, Mike Rabel comes up with a good game plan or Tadano, whoever the offensive coordinator is at times, comes up with a good game plan that matches his strengths and they kind of put together enough at home to kind of put Ritter on the ropes.

I don't like the idea of Ritter coming from behind, but I think the Falcons can control this game. Wesleyan alum Tim Kelly is the offensive coordinator coordinator shout out to uh connor's old school uh question in the chat didn't the falcons win last week yes they won but we're talking about perception if you go in the division and win by margin which would have happened if they wouldn't have had the red zone turnovers is the point right um connor what are your thoughts on this matchup yeah it's it's interesting because there's so much not to like about the Titans right now. I mean, if we think about, you know,

there is that uncertainty of like, okay, well, we'll love this could be good. The Titans saw enough from we'll love us in preseason to not make him their backup quarterback. And so even though, I guess in my mind, like, I think that his skillset fits much better as a backup to Ryan Tannehill than someone like Malik Willis's does because just, I mean, we saw it with, uh, you know, with previously with other quarterbacks as well. Like if you have a running quarterback, you traditionally don't want that guy as your backup. You want him as a guy you can kind of game plan for a whole week, even if he's slightly better. So I think in this spot here, Will Levis is probably getting the start. Also, I don't know if you, did you guys see the press

conference, uh, with Vrabel? And like, he was asked questions about the two quarterbacks and he looked distraught. I mean, he looked pissed off, like mad that anyone was even asking him about this. It looked like he had just gotten news that like, you know, someone in his family had passed away or something. It was like crazy, like his reaction to it.

And so I don't know, with all the things that we're seeing right now, I think there's a pretty strong signal here that the Titans are kind of like wrapping it up after this, after this game, because they traded away. Kevin Bayard led the defense and snaps. Tennessee secondary was already bad. 28th and EPA 20 things supposed to pass right aloud, played basically terribly against everyone except for an injured Joe Burrow who couldn't move.

And they had like a perfect game plan for the executed. Well, the only thing I would say is the Titans do get tear Tart back. Who's big for the run defense. The last few weeks without him, their run defense has been pretty bad or at least just, you know, average. And so in this spot, I don't think the Falcons are going to have a ton of success running the ball, but I do think that passing the ball, I mean, doesn't rid her average 10 yards per attempt last week. And there's been playing better. I think in a lot of senses, like, and again, I've read this is relative to my expectations, which is early season. He was in my mind, terrible. So, you know, like, I think in a lot of senses, like, and again, I've read this is relative to my expectations, which is early season. He was in my mind, terrible. So, you know, like, I think that

like in this spot, he's playing a lot better, has a great matchup. Um, and I think that the defense is going to completely stifle Tennessee's offense to the points that Clark mentioned there. So, uh, I like Atlanta here at two and a half. I think there's some threes in the board. I think it's probably given that we didn't see any market like action after the initial bump i think we're probably going to see a close three in most spots but um i like anything under three here yeah i mean i still even though we're at like 35 uh and a half uh as far as the total in most spots which is a very low total even in this day and age currently with the way that scoring is some 36 is out there um depending on what you're looking for so shop around i just points are going to be hard to come by these are okay you said two teams that

want to run the ball that really need to run the ball um the opposing run defenses are very stout it's kind of the strength of each defense so we kind of need desmond ritter led drives or will levis led drives that's tough even tougher because because we don't really know what Levis is. The Falcons, I think secondary is better than Tennessee's secondary. They're also two of the best red zone defenses in the league. And again, kind of my point at the top, is that really a thing compared to who these defenses are? But I think what does make sense is these are two of the league's worst

red zone offenses. So even though it's a pretty low number points are probably hard to come by you know a Tennessee team total might be a good look especially if you were you know with the guys here and on the Falcon side of that you could still like 17 and a half yesterday down to 16 and a half so through a key number but still probably pretty viable in whatever the combination of Levis and Willis here is, is probably not pretty. So yeah, I, my thought here is, is wanting to be on Atlanta thinking that the market's not properly accounting for them based off of some of the stuff that happened last week.

Cause I do think that that could have been a more dominant win. Yes. They have their flaws. Yes. They're beating up on a soft schedule, but they might be okay. And I don't think that the Titans are, and the Titans were with Ryan Tannehill, which is why I had to wear a dumb hat a couple of weeks ago. Right. I've been on the fade Titans bandwagon for sure. Again,

want to factor this into Clark. I don't know if you put this in the model, the Titans are going to be wearing the old Oilers jerseys this week. Yeah. So, I mean, that's some serious stuff. Those are some bad,

bad unis. Like those are nice. They're pretty clean. So yeah, that's some serious stuff those are some bad bad unis like those are nice they're pretty clean so yeah that's probably at least a half point yeah yeah my bad all right yeah rerun that rerun it we'll circle back at the end of the show see if it uh see what it spits out i always yeah i always undervalue the uniform change angle every time yeah you're on miami against the kelly green i know i know that was a problem uh you know the pats went pat patriot and rolled back the reds i think you're on the other side of that that was probably not good so we check in earlier in the week okay you're gonna look ahead see what's coming hashtag trends yeah trend these are trends yeah another trend which i you know only because you mentioned it, uh, variable five and Oh,

when his last few years off the buy. So I will say I had, I had a fight with someone on Twitter about Tannehill last week. And I, I did some digging. I have not lost a bet against the Titans since the middle part of 2021. So like typically when I bet against the Titans and this year in particular betting on and against the Titans, I think I'm five and Oh, oh okay so i've had a pretty good read on them so far we'll see we'll see what happens we got a lot of trends here this is great like mike grable off a buy

against them when you bet the titans yeah like yeah mike tomlin on a home dog no i mean but grable is a home dog here against desmond ritter so i think we're gonna see automatic buyback if this gets anything past three. Three and a half is automatic. If we even see it, it's automatic buyback for people. Yeah, like I said, FanDuel, our sponsor here, still two and a half. Juiced again, minus 122. Caesars is out there still at two and a half at minus 120.

The threes are all tilted to the Tennessee side. Minus 105 still and stuff like that. So yeah, we're in that, you know, that middle. We also haven't gotten confirmation on Tannehill yet. They said his ankle's healing and, you know, there's all that ambiguity. We saw this last week with Deshaun Wilson. As soon as it was confirmed, the line moved. I think we're going to see a flat three.

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You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at Ticketmaster.com slash NFL. All right, next, Minnesota. Coming off a big one there on the road in Green Bay. I shot this one around. FanDuel has the Vikings a one and a half point favorite, minus 102. So we are definitely shading towards the one there. There are pick'ems out there.

There are flat ones out there. There's even a minus one on the Green Bay side still out there at MGM if you're shopping around. So, you know, though pretty sizable recency bias in this line. This is two and a half before the games kicked off at 3 p.m. Central Time in Week 7. So just before the Packers-Broncos game got started. Obviously, Green Bay goes out, lays an egg in Denver.

Looks even worse than the score indicates. Vikings on Monday night upend the 49ers in an Island game. So here we are. This is flipped a little bit. And again, like not huge movement, but we're flipping from, you know,

one team to another being the favorite through the zero and stuff like that. So, you know, not nothing Connor first time these two have met the season. What are your thoughts on Minnesota green Bay? Yeah, it's interesting because the Vikings lead the NFL and blitz raid at 56%. And they've also blitzed even more against certain opponents.

So we're talking about, they blitzed over 70% of the time against the bears. You know, and like when you factor that kind of in there with how that works, because Jordan love right now against the blitz out of 34 qualifying QBs, he's 31st in completion rate, 33rd in adjusted completion rate and 21st in yards per attempt. And then against pressure 30th in completion rate, 34th in adjusted completion rate, and 21st in yards per attempt. And then against pressure, 30th in completion rate,

34th in adjusted completion rate, and 24th in yards per attempt. He just really hasn't played all that well against pressure and the blitz. And I think part of that's just with his processing, with his younger receivers, and now Christian Watson seems questionable heading into this week. So I don't know. I think that it's tough for me not to like Minnesota here. I think that Minnesota's offensive line has also been playing better.

They held up really well against San Francisco. Green Bay is secondary. It looks like they could be missing Eric Stokes and Darnold Savage. Didn't practice still so far this week, which is not a good sign. Savage IR. He's out. Savage IR. There you go.

Stokes IR too. Stokes is on IR too. stokes comes off the ir literally like gets hurt in warm-ups goes yeah goes back on ir it's like crazy yeah it sucks yeah so alexander probably back there jair's probably back that would be good but yeah i mean it's still it's everything seems to be trending towards minnesota so yeah i like them i played some of them on the money line i know clark uh took some action on them as well. I'm curious to hear his thoughts about why he liked them though. Let's do it, Clark.

What do you got? Yeah, I see eye to eye with you. The teams that Green Bay has played so far this season, Blitz at 20%, 22%, 21%, 20%, 23%, 25%. And those last two were Las Vegas and Denver, both of whom he did not have good games against. And those are all low blitz rates. And so now Minnesota blitzes, you know,

58% depends on what site you're using, I guess, to get the exact number. This is a different animal for Love. This is unlike anything he's ever faced, this type of high pressure defense. And he doesn't process quickly. Like he is not going to beat the blitz. Now, Matt LaFleur might be able to beat the blitz

by setting up plays that are specifically designed to offset the looks that the vikings lay out there and if jordan love can execute he's been pretty good on quick throws when he kind of makes up his mind before the snap what he's going to do and then and then takes that option that's been fine but every time he drops back he just he's unable to like make things happen he doesn. He doesn't seem to be hitting plays 10, 15, 20 yards downfield within rhythm. It's either a chucked deep bomb or it's that quick throw. So I don't really think that this is a good spot

for the Packers on offense. They have tons of injuries. Aaron Jones didn't practice today. I think he'll play. It's sort of a veteran rest day on Wednesday, but he's been dealing with a hamstring injury that's keeping his snap count low. Christian Watson looks like he's probably gonna play, but he got banged up last week,

and that's something to look for in terms of re-injury. Luke Musgrave is dealing with an ankle injury, may not play. So they've got more injuries. Again, it seems to be the Packers every single week. On defense, three guys went down last week. It looks like Savage is on the IR, Stokes is on the IR. They might get Alexander back. They'll probably get Wyatt back. So, you know, it's a mixed bag, but this is a Vikings team that is in a different caliber than this Packers team based on play so far this season. They're completely different caliber of teams. And yet this is a pick them in green Bay, which is a little bit sort of shaky for me. Cause I'm like, all right, so what am I missing? Right? This clearly should be Vikings by two and a half, three. I don't understand why it's Pickham. Makes me a little bit wary. One thing that I think some people look into is, you know, Kirk Cousins has not played

well in his career when playing in the elements. And this looks like a rain game in Lambeau. He's not played well in particular in Green Bay. I mean, remember last year, late in the year, he went into Lambeau and the Vikings absolutely laid an egg in that game. So I think there could be some sort of narrative angles against Cousins, but we've seen short-term narrative angles like that mean nothing in long-term. For a long time, it was Kirk Cousins loses every time he plays primetime. That's a joke now, right? I mean, they just knocked off the Niners on primetime. But Kirk Cousins is Cousins. Like he's not an elite level quarterback, but he's really, really good. And he can get the ball out on time. He can find open receivers. He

can execute an offense. He's playing better than he's ever played in his career, in my opinion. And I think that shows the work ethic that he has, that we saw on that quarterback show. Like he's really putting in the work to be the best quarterback he can be. And so I'm much more optimistic about them coming out of the, or coming off of one week without Justin Jefferson looking much better in week two and now heading into week three. So I think the Vikings offense will be able to get enough done. And I really am skeptical about what Jordan Love can do.

So definitely like the Vikings here on the money line. Yeah. You guys make good points. I think part of the buyback or maybe the pause, because I don't disagree with you is a couple of things where we were in the look aheads. It's a drastic, you know, drastic move to move through basically five, six points off of, off of that. And I think that in itself is maybe there's a little bit of reluctancy to make that big of a move. Just having that much of a reliance on what happened last week, right right we're reacting to their inability to go in

and like stomp out denver who's really struggled defensively and all of a sudden you can't get it going offensively against denver it's a it's a big flashing red alert sign right because everyone just that's like you get well against denver then the opposite too we're all right well the vikings just got it done in an island game everyone watched that game so you don't want to overreact so it's like just a natural contrarian movement with the line i think it's kind of maybe gives a little bit of market pause too i want to hear his thoughts too really interesting the the vikings are plus 165 uh to make the playoffs which is again this was has already moved a ton comparatively and makes sense i mean they just won that game against uh you know the niners and then this has already been bet into but when you

kind of look at this schedule very very soft upcoming schedule that would make the you know nfc south teams jealous if they basically play some of the nfc south teams they play green bay atlanta new orleans denver chicago and vegas are the next six games for the vikings they play Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, Denver, Chicago, and Vegas are the next six games for the Vikings. They are either favored or no worse than under three in all those games, I would think. Then a critical run at the end of the season, the last four, basically they play, I think it was Cincy.

Then they get two against Detroit, and then they get the last Green Bay game. So very tough run to finish. But they could really all of a sudden be in a driver's seat heading into December here with a team that we were all looking to fade. We're talking about, should the Jets trade for Kirk Cousins? And all of a sudden, we're talking about a playoff run for the Vikings. Pretty interesting. The price isn't super appealing, comparatively, a playoff run for the Vikings. Pretty interesting. You know, the price isn't super appealing comparatively,

knowing it was maybe three to one, you know, 48 hours ago. But what are your thoughts on that, Clark? I do think that the change in odds is completely justified. That was a season defining win for the Vikings, because if they lose that game, you know, you've got Justin Jefferson on IR, you're what, two and five. You're thinking about the future. Kirk Cousins might not be that future

everything everything is future evaluation mode and winning that game really put them in the point where they can make the playoffs and if you make the playoffs anything can happen and kirk cousins has that drive kevin o'connell wants to win this is a team that is putting themselves in position to get justin jefferson back from ir in a meaningful season and if that's the case i think yeah they'll definitely be feisty uh to make the playoffs in the NFC. Yeah. Connor, any,

any interest biting on that? Yeah, I don't mind it. I'm trying to, I'm looking at some of the other, like, you know, potential teams here.

Cause you're getting like four division winners and three kind of other, other teams that are going to make it. And I think that they are probably one of those teams to be honest, cause you're probably getting Eagles, Cowboys, Niners, Seahawks, and then most likely two from the NFC North. You're probably not getting two from the NFC South unless it continues to be like a dogfight.

I don't know. I mean, maybe you do. I mean, like, you know. Yeah, there's three candidates there. Yeah. Right. So I think, but I mean, the odds are you're getting plus 160 on basically being, you know, one of those four teams, probably something like that. I think that but I mean, the odds are you're getting plus 160 on basically being, you know, one of those four teams is probably something like that. I think that that's pretty interesting. So I do like, I do like that bet. That's a good call.

You also have the potential equity of winning the NFC North. Like, yeah, if they are the team that is capable of making the playoffs from this start, then those two games against Detroit late are going to be huge. And so, yes, you know, they're probably underdogs in both games, but not huge underdogs, especially if Jefferson plays. And so you went to, yeah, that, and that, that two game swing could be, end up being massive. You know, and it's, you know, narrative-y for sure. But let's think about the, like the state of the, of the Vikings.

If they get to a place late in the season, going into those games where those two games matter, that means you did some good work. That means you started to build off of it. You probably got Justin Jefferson back. You're in a different mindset as a team in terms of where you are at the end of the season when those games matter versus what we thought maybe that game looked like or those games would look like, you know, say a week or so ago.

So, yeah, interesting to see. You're probably not getting the best of the number anymore. It doesn't mean it's a bad bet still comparatively. All right, next, Jacksonville. On the road in Pittsburgh, we are on FanDuel minus 2.5 for the Jags, minus 115, total 41.5. This is basically 2.5 across the board. It looks like we are moving towards 3.

There are some 42s out there in the market in terms of the total as well the steelers uh you know they're like the scene and like the subsequent gif from uh breaking bad like they cannot keep getting away with this uh this is a house of cards they just this is again kudos to Mike Tomlin. He deserves credit for this for sure. This is one of the league's worst offenses, regardless of the metric. They are like 31st in points per drive, yards per drive. They've only been in the red zone 10 times this season, fewest in the league by far. You think of like the top tier teams are all like 25,

30 times in the red zone, 10 for the Steelers. Kenny Pickett, dead last among starting quarterbacks in epa plus cpoe composites only zach wilson is ahead of him in success rates um and you must be thinking wow this defense must be historically good no they're not they are 26 and yards per play allowed their bottom of the of most metrics middle of the pack and some like they're not even a great pressure team their secondary is not good um i don't know connor what do we do with the steelers they're four and two uh i mean the market's telling us that they don't really believe they're home dogs here but uh i just don't understand how we got here again yeah it's pretty crazy when you look

at like the results like the browns game was just crazy fluky stuff with how they got that win the ravens game i think what was it like multiple failed red zone trips or like like inside the five drops like that for the raven yeah it was like crazy like just the way that resulted and then the other wins are against like the raiders and the rams and you know like i don't know i to me when you look at the metrics, the underlying metrics, I think this is a great spot to fade them specifically because you're looking at this Pittsburgh defense, 28th and explosive pass rate allowed, allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs. And then specifically under pressure, I think it's really interesting when they've gotten

pressure, their second in the NFL and completion rate, uh, you know, allowed, but then they're allowing way more yards per attempt. So they're allowing like 7.4 yards per attempt, uh, or five yards per attempt under pressure, just a 37.9% completion rate. But when they don't get pressure, that'll, they'll jumps like 82 or 8.2 yards per attempt allowed. So it's like, if they get pressure, they've been really good. And obviously most teams have like pressure and under not pressured splits, but like, this is like very drastic. You know what I mean? Like a 37% completion rate when you get pressure is no joke. And I think maybe that's just a lot of who they played. We've talked about Lamar Jackson, one of the words quarterbacks under pressure. We've talked about, you know, some of the other

quarterbacks in this list that they played are not really good under pressure. So I think that that's going to come back down to earth. I think that's here. And I think getting two and a half is a pretty interesting spot. I would tend to lean towards the over but i don't know how much faith i have in the pittsburgh side uh so i don't know i think etn here eats and i think that the jags offense gets going uh so any thoughts any thoughts on this side from you guys clark this is how it falls apart again is because the one thing that's been problematic for the jags so far this season the offensive line has not played well um etn's done a lot on his own creating yards, and they have not been a good pass-blocking team.

It just can be one of those spots where the game is closer than it should be late, and TJ Watt gets home free, strip sack, and we're talking about a 5-2 Steelers team next week going, how the hell did we get here? It does kind of seem like TJ Watt getting to Lawrence is the key to this game for the Steelers. I think it's a little bit, I don't think that you should be grading the Steelers based on their metrics

this year. I think that can lead you to a misleading understanding of who the team is because they came into the year, you know, very optimistic they were going to build on last year, you know, young quarterback and Kenny Pickett game one, they get absolutely destroyed by the 49ers. And then they play the Browns, two of the best defenses, if not the best defenses in the league. And then they lose Deontay Johnson, who is their only real down to down good route running receiver. Like George Pickens can make plays, but he's, he doesn't really thrive

in that wide receiver one role. So, and, and they've been without Friday, although granted, he's still on IR. So that doesn IR, so you can't really count that. They get Deontay Johnson back last week. They look pretty good on offense against the Rams, better than they've looked all season. And I think with the bye week, with getting Deontay Johnson back, I think we should be using priors on the Steelers

more so than pretty much any other team in the NFL. Because this season, I think it maybe applies to the Bengals too, but this season's numbers I think are going to be misleading. So there is a little bit of that keeping the price under three, I think, in this one. You know, you got Mike Tomlin as a home dog, which is such a narrative-y angle,

but it also just speaks to Tomlin's ability to prepare his team and the Steelers' consistency with the leadership they have on both offense and defense at this point with Deontay Johnson coming back so you know on the other side of the ball like I love the Jags they're five and two they deserve to be five and two I think people love to poke holes in the Jags resume but really like they've got talent where it counts and they make plays and Trevor Lawrence is is a really really good quarterback. So I think this is kind of like probably a stay away from me, but I definitely see the angle for the Steelers, and I understand why there's some resistance there.

Yeah, I think we had some concerns about the Jags coming in this offseason, knowing that, hey, this is a top-ten offense for sure. Defensively, they were not very good last year, and they were running it back. And the thought was like, okay, maybe there's something there. Maybe they gel, maybe they start to figure it out. And they have, they've been really good both against the run and the past, the season. They've had some injuries, but I think they're getting a little healthier.

I think we should see Tyson Campbell back. That helps. That would help a ton for them. So like I want to buy Jags long-term and i feel like this is just one of those spots where like i want to kind of ignore some of that tomlin stuff like all the things that would make me just have any resistance to the jags who i think are a significantly better team laying less than a field goal against the team that i just don't know how they're going to move the ball consistently they haven't done so all season long and i you know i just don't think this is a spot for them to do so.

So, yeah, it's just one of those spots where I want to start to just kind of plant a flag against a team that I want to buy into and another team that I think is just way overperforming in terms of win loss. So, you know, I don't know. Is this like three and a half? If this is no Tomlin narrative, right? If this wasn't like the Steelers and there wasn't like some aura around how they get here, feels like this is a like these are not really close teams in terms of talent i don't know i'm i'm gonna loss with this one it's like it's two and a half and it gives me a little bit of heebie i don't i don't factor in those narrative angles and i make it two and i know you don't but i you know i feel like it's it's not even that it's factored in as much as it sometimes is to your

point gives people pause in the market yeah when it gets to three it's like i'm getting three with tomlin at home uh i'm gonna take that yeah i don't know all right we'll move on connor you got some i was gonna say i don't think that there'd be four and two without mike tomlin just just to be clear even like you know what i mean like obviously a lot of his luck but it's just a good coach. He told the dudes to cut their eyelids off. Did you see him cut your eyes off and keep your eyes open? Like, I don't know. Maybe Kenny Pickett has it, guys. He has it.

Have you weighed it factor in your model yet or no? No. Oh, actually in a way, yes, but no. I saw you wrestling with it and I was curious. You know, I wasn't sure. I can almost never tell when you're fully being serious on Twitter or when you're being joking because you have some like off the wall contrarian takes, but then sometimes you're like, you know, facetious about it.

So I always think it's funny. There is some, there is some truth to that. I think that I think certain players have a, a level of drive that kicks into gear in certain moments that is really hard to quantify. And I do think it's a thing. I do think it's a real thing. Michael Jordan had it. Tom Brady had it. Patrick Mahomes has it. Those are the outlier examples,

but it's a thing that players have. Hashtag the will to win, maybe. We're going to get skewered by the analytics community, but it's like momentum and things like that that are really, really tough to quantify and things that, you know, have not been able to be proven.

I think matter. Okay. But keep that on a down low. I agree. We've talked about this before. Yeah. All right. Next Cleveland's on the road in Seattle.

We are out to three and a half, basically across the board. 38 and a half is the total. Some 38 out there as as well in this one. We, I mean, like the QB situation in Cleveland is absolute mess. Deshaun Watson looked hesitant early in that game last week against the Colts. Then he got hurt again, re-injured his shoulder. I'm not sure whatever happened there.

It was definitely more PJ Walker at the end of the day than we would have thought. And it looks like that's where we got again this week. If you look at the final score, you would have thought that PJ Walker was slinging it out there against the Colts. That was not what happened. It was really just miles Garrett, absolutely going insane. I, it made me like my son watched it. And you know, he's, he's a, he's a hoops head, you know, 15, a little bit and watch a little bit of football.

I made him like YouTube, Miles Garrett basketball. I just look at this dude, 360 windmills, you know, it looks like Zion, but like, you know, not hurt. Like Miles Garrett is a freak athletes to like go from like a four point stance and like box jump over other grown men and block that field goal uh was absolutely nuts and to get the strips out i mean just absolute beast play uh yeah this is gonna be a great match i'm excited for this one connor what are your thoughts on cleveland seattle yeah it looks like this line's moved within the announcement of watson being out there's just two

and a half and when i was prepping for the show i played some It was just two and a half, and when I was prepping for the show, I played some Seattle at two and a half here. I really like how their defense is progressing with everyone healthy here. The addition of Devin Witherspoon, I think this defense, and Small Adams coming back, Tariq Wolin being fully healthy. Yeah, as I was saying, you've got to add in some props to your boy. He's been so good.

He's been really good. Sorry. I so good he's been he's been really good sorry like i don't even know how good he is truly in coverage but he's just so electric like in terms of making hits and like being a tackler and like you know everything else outside of that because obviously i'm not watching him specifically every single play in coverage but he's been great and so like you add that into a defense that's already been playing really strong run defense uh and i mean they haven't really been tested so far, you know, too much, but like they've played well in the two games that went healthy. So I'm interested to see how that progresses.

And I don't think this is necessarily a test either. But now you're getting a Browns team that is going to be without Jerome Ford, without Nick Chubb, probably relying on, you know, Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong in the running game, and then PJ Walker to move the ball against what I consider to be, at this point, a pretty solid secondary. So I just don't really see how the Browns move the ball consistently, to be honest. But on the other side, I think that Seattle, their offensive line concern, DK Metcalf looks like he's going to be healthy.

If they can find any kind of rhythm offensively, I think that they win in cover here. And that's my question. So at under the three, I think that they win in cover here. And that's my question. So at under the three, I was pretty excited about Seattle. Not really a three, three and a half in a lot of spots. I'm not sure if I'm really like jumping at that, to be honest, because I mean this Seattle or this Cleveland defense is legit. And the way they're getting pressure is awesome. Like it's, it's very difficult for me to see this as anything other than

kind of a dogfight in the trenches. Yeah. Clark is going to be a good one. It's obviously an interesting matchup in terms of both these teams playing really good defensively. We've seen Gino struggle against man coverage throughout his career. It's been exasperated a little bit this year. It's been pretty bad against man. And I imagine he has his hands full, gets a little bit more complicated if there's no DK Metcalf in the spots. What are your thoughts here now that we've moved to three and a half yeah i think this is a one of the games that i was talking about where you know i bet under 40 and a half at open uh you know when i was

preparing notes for this show it was 39 and a half and i was you know gung-ho under 39 and a half is fine looks like it's moved to 39 since then uh maybe 38 and a half i don't care bet under i bet it to 37 and a half. This is going to continue to drop down. This is one of those matchups where both defenses should dominate this game. And when that's the case, bet the under if it's anywhere in a reasonable range. In this case, the Seahawks played against the Cardinals last week, and it was 20 to 10 against a team that is has a better offense than it does defense uh Bengals was 17 13 another team with a better offense than defense

Giants was 24 3 and I think that was a pick 6 8 24 and those are the last three games the Seahawks have played since their defense got healthy since their secondary got healthy they've been really really good on defense and the Browns probably have the biggest gap in quality between their defense and offense in the NFL in favor of their defense. So this is a situation where both defenses have the advantage. Both offenses are big question marks. You know, the Seahawks played without two offensive linemen last week. We'll see if they get healthy. They played without Metcalf, obviously. This Browns defense is smothering. And I get it. There were like 77 points scored in the Colts. Am I underselling that? It might have been more.

Yeah, that's right. That's great. Yes, in the Colts-Browns game. But it was such a weird, weird game. And there's always a chance that happens. But I don't really see that here. I think the Browns stick to a fairly conservative game plan with a backup quarterback again in P.J. um, Gino Smith just hasn't been consistent

this year, even against defenses that aren't that great. Um, so this is a game where there's still some uncertainty because the Seahawks offense was really good against Detroit, basically one outlier, really good game. Other than that, they've struggled, you know, can they show up? Can Gino Smith get that chip on his shoulder back and start slinging it downfield against this Browns defense like we saw Minshew do? Yes, it's possible. If DK Metcalf plays, him and Tyler Lockett are capable of beating good man defense, so it's not out of the question. I'm with Connor. I think it's a dog fight. I think it's a defensively dominated game. Honestly, I don't think the Seahawks have the type of offense to pull away from a really, really good defense. So at three and a half, I'm leaning the Brown side,

but this is one of those ones where I'm kind of staying off with the uncertainty of, you know, who these teams are based on the current injury situations that we have. Yeah. So there's a big one on the Seattle side. They lost Uchenna Nuoso for the season to a torn Peck. That's a big blow to them defensively. It looks like they're signing Frank Clark. There'll be a little bit of delay there. So I'm not sure if he's there this week or what will happen. So he's likely to play apparently.

Okay. Well, they could use him. That's for sure. There's Seattle's defense. There is like even more upside. Like we can get to a spot like legitimately where this is a borderline elites or elite defense because this is kind of what i was touching on at the top a lot of their metrics are fantastic i think just you know against the run they've been good against the past when they've had both

recalling in the lineup and witherspoon they've been like the best secondary in the league when you look at them on third downs they are allowing the fifth highest conversion rate on third downs that doesn't check out because other teams that are allowing the fifth highest conversion rate on third downs that doesn't check out because other teams that are allowing high conversion rates are some of the worst they are by far the worst red zone defense in the league as well they've had 10 of 12 red zone trips convert for a touchdown 83 by far the worst in the league so part of me is like all right that's a little noisy there could be some regression there and all of a sudden this me is like all right that's a little noisy there's could be some regression there and all of a sudden this defense is like really really really good and again some of that

was happening before witherspoon was in the lineup you know uh woolens missed some time jamal adams is back like adams allows them to be multiple in a different way where they can allow him to basically he played 90 box snaps right last year that is a linebacker that is not a safety that dude is playing in the slot or he's playing linebacker like you know and he's good at he blitzes like he'll help make up for some of the the roaster stuff as well so if frank clark can come in and contribute like we can see this team be a legit contender because of the defense almost like the browns where like we need some good from the offense to keep them hanging around. The defense is good enough to go out and win games.

So like where you're at in the under, I think it's still bettable. So good luck there for sure. What do you got, Connor? Can I interest you guys in some Seattle Seahawks 40-1 to win the Super Bowl? 40-1. I'm already holding 30-1 from before the season. Okay, well, if you did not get an early, I'm going to add to this because they have coming up.

So they're already, I believe it's what four and four and two. I think that's what they're at right now. They play against the commanders, the Rams, the, you know, Steelers,

the Titans, the Cardinals. Then they have a bunch of other games that are against tough teams. They have like Eagles, Niners, Cowboys. So, so it's like

we're talking about five to six games that i think are there's like clearly the better team um and then there's four games where i think they can be competitive and maybe win a couple of them you know i don't think they're like you can buy my 30 to one ticket off me for for face value i i don't you don't want it at all really oh i'm i'm in i'm in they their offense is gonna be way better i mean like they they're like whole offensive line they're trying on a bunch of bums you know they just got to figure it out um they figured out jsn going a little bit last week too yeah yeah post by rookie bump charbonnet is coming back to a little one two duo i mean i will i will buy your ticket i mean i don't know how much you put on it but

i'll buy at least a chunk of it at face value if you want to sell some off yeah we can talk off we can talk after jake bobo anyway i'm in we didn't even talk about it shut up jake bobo doesn't get playing time if metcalf comes back so yeah he's got the it factor clark yeah he's on the bench he's got it on the bench yeah yeah i don't know i'm i'm i think seattle is very interesting and i think there could be some upside one thing i didn't like about spoon with a spoon he's so fun so exciting first of all his priorities might be a little bit whack because there was a play last week where i the the other team the cardinals they converted they threw they threw a pass

and he like leveled the guy that caught it leveled him oh yeah really nice tackle i jumped up out of my seat but he but he caught it for a first down and where the spoon is like celebrating his tackle and i'm like dude they just got a first down on you like there's nothing that means he gets to go back and hit him again if he has to go to the sideline he doesn't get to hit him anymore i get it i get it like i i i hate when players celebrate plays that aren't good for their team that's that's my little pet peeve on with a spoon from one play other than that he's awesome that's that's fair that's fair you know it's hard to turn the dog off you know and it's just it's barking and wants to get out there you ever watch a movie semi-pro yeah he's like coffee black just running down there you

know like shooting threes just running down there, you know, like shooting threes, just trying to get his dick sucked. That's what the quote is. I respect it. A lot of swag. A lot of swag. Yeah. All right.

I mean, I can go full 60 on Willis-Foon if you want to, but we'll move on. Last game here, we'll talk about the Bengals and Niners. We've had some news here in some uh movements to correspond with that fan duel here san francisco minus three and a half uh that looks pretty consistent across the board total 43 and a half as well we have uh brock purdy in concussion protocol we have sam darnold's very very likely if not confirmed, the starter here. We have the Niners coming off of back-to-back road losses, returning home to take on a Bengals club.

Hopefully getting fresh coming off of a bye here. Interesting line movement here. Interesting news. Connor, I'll give you the floor here for Bengals and Niners. Yeah, this was, I believe we're looking at five and a half, six in some spots, depending on the book. And so Brock Purdy concussion protocol, Adam Schefter tweeted out basically that he's not going to pass that prior to this week. So we're going to see Sam Darnold most likely.

But it's interesting because a lot of the media coverage this year, and we've talked about this, I think the Bengals almost every single week at this point. A lot of the media coverage has been around Burrow, their offensive line leading up to expectations, whether he's mobile, yada, yada, yada. But the most surprising part about this to me has been kind of the Bengals' defense so far this year. 25th in EPA per play, run defense, 31st in explosive run rate allowed, 25th in success rate. Their secondary has been about league average in most metrics. That's been the biggest letdown to me. And I think in this spot here, when you're matching up against a 49ers team, that at its core, Shanahan offense has been able to excel running the ball in almost every situation. Now they've added in a lot more, obviously with Purdy, you know, being able to

pass the ball significantly well, but like, I think if they want to run like, you know, wheel back and just rely on their roots, like they'll be able to have plenty of success running the ball in the spot. And that, uh, you know, as long as we have, you know, CMC playing, which we do a little bit of him or a lot of him, a little bit of Elijah Mitchell, I think we'll go a long way.

So I'm inclined to see where this line goes and maybe take some action on San Francisco at the time. You know, at this point, I do think though, it'll, it'll, a lot of the other side of the ball is going to come down to whether San

Francisco can get pressure on Joe burrow last week. Maybe you credit the Vikings line, but Kirk Cousins throughout the season had been pressured 31% of the time. And then last week, he was only pressured 24% of the time. They got zero sacks, I believe, in the Vikings, which for Joe Burrow, I think is massive. We saw the Titans already kind of come in

and be able to implement an approach there. But Joe Burrow also probably is likely more mobile at this point than he was then. So I don't know. I kind of go back and forth, but I'm pretty confident that the 49ers have success on the ground. And I think that Sam Donald's going to come in and honestly be fine. I know that might be a hot take,

but I bet he'll actually be totally average when relative to most Shanahan quarterbacks. We've seen that historically, right? It doesn't really matter. Maybe not that nothing away from Brock Purdy. Yeah. Nick Mullins and and you know uh bether like we've just seen guys kind of pop in there make some starts you know the team is is as good as it's ever you know been that's the problem here

too is like we're gonna have i don't know about the status of trent williams we do know that we don't have debo samuel here that's a little bit of a problem orlando brown got dinged up on the bengal side before the buy he practiced today he didn't practice monday that was concerning to me he did looks like he did practice if they weren't going to have orlando brown considering how bad their offensive line has been in protecting borough that would have been problematic but it looks like he's good to go clark what are your thoughts here with the darnell moo and now that we're down three and a half yeah i was pretty a split between disappointment and relief when that announcement came in because I was considering betting

on the 49ers, and one of my biggest angles is that I think Brock Purdy is good. He's a good quarterback, and I think I was going to try to capitalize on the sort of negative sentiment around his last two games. I don't have confidence that Sam Darnold can step into the Purdy role and execute this offense the same way. Like, Purdy's been doing a really good job. And, you know, it's not like the Niners have plugged in anybody

and they don't want the system. Like, when Jimmy G has been hurt in the past, the Niners have performed worse on offense. So I do think there's a downgrade here. Sam Darnold has the talent and the pedigree to be good, but we haven't seen it yet on the field. And so this is something that I'm very unlikely to get my money out there in front of Sam Donald.

But on the other side, this is kind of another angle that I like the 49ers is the Bengals offense has yet to show that they can do anything other than dink and dunk down the field. Right. Burrow had a couple of big throws, but really for the most part, like it's been a very constricted,

limited offense. That's been focused on constricted, limited offense that's been focused on Burrow getting the ball out quick, which is an extension of what they were doing last year. And the teams that have caused the 49ers the most problems based on their defensive schemes is teams that can get the ball downfield and challenge the cornerbacks, because they have such a good linebacking core and they have such a good defensive line. So, you know, Stafford 8.6 yards per average depth of target and Cousins 7.4 average depth of target on the year. Those are the guys that have really, of the good quarterbacks, have done some damage against the 49ers.

Whereas Dak Prescott, 6.9 ADOT on the year, really struggled against this 49ers team because he tried to get those short passes going. It just wasn't working. And Burrow is bottom of the whole league in ADOT at 6.1. And so I think the Bengals' offense is going to have to look very different for them to have a chance to beat this 49ers defense. And again, I'm not going to put my money out on anticipation

that we see something we haven't yet seen this year from the Bengals. I think it's more likely the 49ers defense really dominates this matchup, and Sam Donald doesn't end up having to do all that much, which is why I agree with the big move under and the big move towards the three when Brock Brady went down. Yeah, do you think we get to three? Do you think we stabilize at three and a half?

What do you think? I think three and a half is probably where it sits. I think maybe a three, 120. Like you kind of see that sometimes books take bets on minus 120 both sides. So they have a big edge. We could see that here because I think this game has a lot of variance,

and I think books would be happy booking that two-way action. Yeah, that makes sense. I feel like we probably... I think three and a half makes sense, right? Because I think you just see a lot of people buying San Francisco with that hook, I think is enough to kind of give people some pause here. Especially when Brock Purdy has been playing poorly,

like Sam Donald is not that big of a downgrade angle. I can totally see people piling on some pause here. Especially with Brock Purdy has been playing poorly. Like Sam Donald is not that big of a downgrade angle. Like I can totally see people piling on Sam. To be clear, I think that Brock Purdy is awesome and that he has been playing really well for the most part. I think that interception at the very end of the game was on Jennings. Like he hitched at the top of the route and didn't come across cleanly. I think he's anticipating if that's IU or that's Debo, that route's run a little bit different.

And, you know, again, it's a game ending interception. So it looks bad. It's the second of the game. So I think it definitely tells a different story than the truth, but I think there was definitely some, you know, not just him on that one for sure. And if McCaffrey doesn't fumble on the 10 and they don't miss the field goal and, you know, Addison doesn't rip the ball away and score a 60 yard touchdown when the time left like

so many things happened that changed the narrative completely of that game so i'm not too worried about it all right guys what else you got anything else connor that you like here on the board again no buys we have a full full slate here anything else that jumped out to you in terms of size total, team totals, anything you want to talk about real quick? I played a little bit of Titans' worst record at like 30-1. I don't know what that got brought down to. It kind of got pulled, but I think anything above 15-1 is probably fine. I think there's just like unforeseen downside if they lose to Atlanta

here. You know, the charity trade with Kevin Byard, I think if they could trade away, Derek Henry, Ryan Tannehill, I think all of that's very much in play. And like,

there's just like massive, massive downside there. And I think their schedule softens up. But again, like they're at that point, they're one of the worst teams in the league. So you're basically just banking on like, you know,

I don't know, Mike variable being an awesome coach, you know? So I think that's an interesting one and then the texans and panthers i have a lot of faith in the texans i don't know i i kind of like them to potentially score a good amount of points against this panthers team here so that's something i'm watching i don't know you have a take there too yeah i i like it and but it feels wrong. Like should I be laying? Oh, God. Like it's, you know, both teams coming off of a bye,

a play caller change going on in Carolina. Is that a thing? Does that help them? You know, I think Bryce Young has started to help, I think, look a little bit better towards the, you know, pre-bye. Yeah, it feels like the square side for sure. But I do like it. i haven't pulled the trigger but i uh i do feel like it's the square side that i like um hey i'm in the middle of a square sides of total better sometimes like that's i'm okay with that uh clark you're

grinning laughing at us are we on the square side if we like the texans here i don't know about square side but you are betting against the panthers at the very low that they could be perceived at coming off a bye week with a rookie quarterback and a change in play caller it's not not a spot that I'm looking to get involved with the Texans if you listen to Adam Chernoff's daily potty he kind of goes through the market each uh each day and he's he spends like 25 of every podcast talking about how this this change in play caller is gonna like you know spark the Panthers offense. And I think it's overplayed in the way that he's describing it, but it's also not nothing.

It's been a static offense, and I do expect there to be some improvement in creativity and motion and pace. I bet the over before this podcast, the release over at 43.5, I think this is a Texans offense that's also getting better with a rookie quarterback coming off a bye. I think this is a Texans offense that's also getting better with a rookie quarterback coming off a bye. Like I like the trajectory of both these teams

that have a fairly good offensive game. And the bottom line, if you're betting on the Texans is that this Panthers defense sucks since they lost Shaq Thompson, since they lost now Jeremy Chin, since they lost, I mean, Xavier Woods has been in and out.

I think he's questionable. There's some other guys in that defense that have been, and it's been a defense that anyone can just do whatever they want against. So if you're betting on the Texans, it's a bet that they're going to score a bunch of points. And if you're betting on the Panthers, it's a bet that they can keep up. So I like betting the over at a deflated number of 43.5 that I don't think reflects what should be two offenses that kind of have their way in this game. So Texans team total, Connor? Yeah, I think that's what I was like thinking about is I like that angle best because I've been really impressed with what Bobby Sloak's done.

I've been impressed with CJ Stroud, like the accuracy, the timing, not to mention Nico Collins and, uh, you know, yeah, they've just been like way better than I think we possibly could have expected. I think we thought that there was like, it could be interesting, but I don't think that we thought that they'd actually have like good games. And then who knows, Matt,

you might play a role, you know, as well, eventually. So Damien rice, Damien rice, Damien Pierce game coming up. Uh,

should be my opinion in this one. Yeah. I mean, if it's not now, it's never, I mean, their running game has not been good, but this is,

that's another layer. Yeah. Right. Like, right. Like if they can get the running game going on top of already like playing well efficiently passing like i mean they could be really interesting like it could be a fun team and clark mentioned a little bit even besides the guys that are out for the year already like the going into the buy the panthers defense is decimated with injuries so we have to see what it comes out of the buy see if any of these guys are back. But they they are playing like literally fourth and fifth safeties in Miami. Like it was it was pretty bad.

Like Jeremy Chin couldn't get on the field, played limited snaps, got hurt, like which sucks because I'm sure they would have loved to have traded him. He would have been a great pickup for someone. I don't know what's going on there. But, yeah, it's they're they're in a dark, dark place in terms of defensive depth. So yeah, that one could be interesting. Clark, anything on the board for you that you want to touch on real quick?

No, other than that one, I'm still processing a lot of these games. There's a lot of teaser options out there. And I think I kind of have mixed feelings on a bunch of these teasers. One I was looking at that I that I would love to find a partner for would be the Chiefs like they're playing they're down to seven in some spots but they're playing on the road in Denver you know Mahomes I saw a tweet from someone that usually doesn't make stuff up that said that Mahomes has never lost a divisional road game, which is kind of narrative-y and trendy, but it also is just, it speaks to, you know, when,

when divisional teams play against each other, a lot of it comes down to the talent and the preparation because, you know, you're familiar with each other. There's no like, you know, secret trick match-ups you're going to capitalize against that, you know, you're not used to. Usually the better team, you know, can assert themselves and the Chiefs have been the better team every, you know, and they've been the better team can assert themselves and the Chiefs have been the better team. They've been the Broncos every time Mahomes has played them. They're significantly better. And there's scheduled to be some snow here in Denver this weekend.

Should be cleared up by the time the game starts. But even if that's the case, Mahomes is famous. I think I'm a snow game guy. I was in Denver in a snow game. So I have full confidence in what they were able to do last week against the chargers in terms of getting their offense on track and their defense has been playing in a way that,

that they've had to play with a, with a offense that has been underperforming. And now the offense is no longer underperforming. So this is the best team in the NFL. This is a super favorite. This is the team that everybody needs to knock off. And I don't think Denver can do it the way they've been playing. I think there's a couple of partners.

I don't know. Well, is Tay way they've been playing I think there's a couple of partners I don't know well is TayTay going do we know oh I don't know I mean it's if it's cold and snowy I guess she gets a box but I don't think it matters first of all it does have you seen the Kelsey splits with her there without her there yeah when he's left to his own devices left to his own devices not not great but with the fact that he was coming off a knee injury nothing nothing no no no yeah i mean like a lot you know just there's a late afternoon there's a bunch of teams in that teaser zone area for sure you got a great a great chance to fade tyson badge and again if you want against the chargers here. You can get two and a half, it looks like. You can get the Lions down to two and a half or two in certain spots.

I think it's the Raiders. Ravens, two, two and a half. I mean, I think all those are honestly, or not Raiders, sorry. Ravens against the Cardinals. Yeah, like all those are fantastic options in my mind. I think Bill's Chiefs, it's a square teaser, but I think it's a teaser that hits this week. I like it too. Okay, I'm going to just do is it's a square teaser, but I think it's a teaser that hits this week. I like it too.

Okay. I'm going to just do all of them. All five of those. Like the bills, we're going to get to the bills at some point there. You know, that's, we have to start reevaluating and I'd love to be able to dig in. We have more time to get a sense of what you're doing with this defense. Cause like to,

to lose your best player essentially at all three levels. Like, so like ed oliver daquan jones both awesome um oliver was injured last week that was a problem but daquan jones ir matt milano ir dradavious white ir um that changes how you do things defensively it makes you pretty limited with what they could do so So we have to start to look at this Bills team very differently. I think they're an over team if markets don't adjust because I think they're going to have a hard time stopping people. And I think the offense is still able to light people up. I don't think that the Bucks can push in this week. So I really do like the Bills here in a spot where people want to kind of push back off of what happened last week.

But that's another thing too. Let's not get fooled on New England either. New England is not good. Miami is going to roll them this week. I understand why there was buyback on 10.5. You know, I don't know. Just I'm not confused on who I think the Patriots are on either side of the ball. And, again, I think the injury issue is on Buffalo's side.

Clark, you're pulling your face a little bit. You want some 9.5 on New England? You're going to make me bet against my own team? I might bet Moneyline on Patriots. I don't know. I haven't decided yet. What? Oh, no. They did look good last week.

Did you see all the injuries coming out of Miami? A lot of injuries. Tyreek didn't practice today, too. Yeah, a lot of injuries, and this Patriots team continues to be underrated It's annoying I was surprised at what the spread was Against the Bills

And then they showed that the spread was wrong And then they come into this game I get it the look ahead was way higher So they did adjust But this Patriots team they can play Jalen Phillips sack That's a bet for me this week That's happening for sure He's in the lineup Patriots team they can play Jalen Phillips sack uh that's a that's a bet for me this week that's

happening for sure um he's in the lineup it's the past haven't been able to run block very well they were able to kind of make it look okay last week because the bills weren't really able to get much pressure but I think that becomes a problem depending on the injury report but yeah I mean like I said I understand the 10 and a half why people would walk on that I just I just don't see it with new ones so all right guys good stuff as always again reminder uh to while you're here before you leave like button uh subscribe rate review all those things we really really appreciate it four four four dot com slash plans promo code youtube gets you 25 off of the arctic discounted price you want to get everything that we do all the plays

get in the discord all the articles projections all that stuff uh definitely check that out and uh come back on friday connor and i will be here friday 3 p.m eastern with high slot to talk props so uh good stuff as always so for connor and clark i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody you