Move The Line - The Ultimate Week 9 Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: October 30, 2024

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Week 9! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 9 betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line presented by DraftKings Sportsbook I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always week nine I think kind of the faux halfway point of the season here Connor Allen's going on my friend yeah not a whole lot just gonna be us two today chopping it up talking about some of the games futures a couple other things. But yeah, it feels weird this season, as they all do. Like you blink and we're already like halfway through the year. But the team is killing it. We're winning money. I mean, it's just awesome.

There's nothing better than football season and winning. I mean, it's just awesome. It really is the best. The best part of it, you know, Monday, even if you have kind of a not so great week, you know, that Monday hits Monday morning. You start that process right back over again and you get back on the best. The best part of it, you know, Monday, even if you have kind of a not so great week, you know, that Monday hits Monday morning, you start that process right back over again and you get back on the wagon and that helps, but it's a little bit easier to get back on the wagon and you're coming off of some wins. You've been experiencing that basically all season. I've had a little bit more of a rocky road, but for me to have a really nice week eight felt

really good to come back to the desk on Monday morning for the first time. And a couple of weeks after kind of down week, drag my feet week kind of, you know, in the middle and then, you know, hit the ground running for week eight. So we're going to keep it going.

Definitely. And the team is, is crushing it. We've, you know, this is kind of our intention here this year is to diversify a little bit, bring in some, some more looks and,

you know, be more of a value add for subscribers where you can kind of pick and choose plays offering more plays for you uh knowing that you can't possibly well i don't want to exclude some in our chat because the more i spend time in our discord uh with some of our degenerates uh some people are getting in on every bets and definitely probably betting two to three x of their own thing so i don't want to say anyone's not tailing everything, but we just want to give people the ability to kind of mix and match to figure out what they like. And that's why we write what we do and,

you know, not just the play, but a detailed write-up to go along with it. So all those things, I think add value to our subscribers. Hopefully people are enjoying that and making lots of money. So again, remind people two episodes of move line each week.

This is more sides of totals. Connor and I going to two episodes of move line each week. This is more sides of totals. Connor and I going to get into the futures a little bit. I think this is a really good time. We're turning the page here in November. Like I said, halfway point of the season. I think futures start to really take shape here. We can have meaningful conversations and look, they're great for content in like July, right? when we have to make and do shows and have conversations i think in terms of being able to understand where you're getting in good based off of what's going on the league november's kind of for me feels like a good time to start having really meaningful conversations about the market and we'll do that today here as well come back on friday 3 p.m

eastern move the line prop drop show me connor john hyslop here talking props um millionaire parlays alts ladders all that stuff uh if you're somehow not joining us for that show you are definitely missing out again subscribe to 404 bets on the youtube channel move the line wherever you listen to podcasts and come back on friday 3 eastern for that show great time there as always great time to scoop up a betting subscription over at 444 is our holiday sale you don't even need a promo code or anything 444.com slash plans it is discounted on the site the betting subscription is what you want it gets access to everything that we do so any articles tools rankings projections you're playing

dfs anything like that obviously access to the Discord that I was talking about. It's where all of our official plays come out first. Great community. NBA is off to a fantastic start. Intern Jake, absolutely crushing it. Been awesome on the NFL side for us as well. Grinding hard. And I don't know what the record is, but the record is really, really good to start. And I know it's bringing just absolute love and joy to your heart because

he's just banging unders all over the place. It's caught around all over. So yeah, people need to get in the NBA chat and hang out with us too. And again, you get everything football wise to everything else we're betting on to in the discord for four.com slash plans. It's already there for you. Discounted. If you want to use one of our partners, rebet is the way to do it. Use 444.com slash plans. It's already there for you, discounted. If you want

to use one of our partners, Rebet is the way to do it. Use promo code 444BET when you download Rebet. It's a sweepstakes app. Lots of different ways to get down on sweepstake apps these days. Buy $10 of Rebet cash with that promo code 444BET, and that's it. You're going to get an email about 48 hours later telling you how to access the 404 betting sub for the rest of the year for no additional costs. So 10 bucks, great deal. Check that out. If you have any questions, let us know. All right, buddy. Awards. We'll touch on, all of them here. See what we have thoughts on. Just kind of shoot from the hip. MVP is obviously the bell of the ball. Everyone wants to know what happens there it's basically

turned in to a quarterback award I think what AP in 2012 was the last time we saw a non-quarterback seeing Josh Allen is the favorite across the market a pretty good number I think on Josh Allen at plus 325 Lamar is is your defending champ and has won before. So I'd love to get your thoughts on, I mean, playing as well as ever, arguably playing better than last year around like voter fatigue, if that's something that you think is a real thing here. Mahomes there at 6-1. Jared Goff, who I tried to make the case for in the offseason,

at a much larger number. I think you poked a hole in it because we have an outdoors game like week 15 or 16 in Chicago, which I think is probably still a viable. I love to get your thoughts on it. And then kind of where, where like the line of demarcation on where you think like we should stop looking. Um, I know you have a guy down the board a little bit that you've kind of been banging the table for still a great number, still a great look. What are your thoughts on MVP? Yeah, I think you laid it out well here. I think the top of the board is still pretty fragile.

I mean, Lamar was plus 250, plus 225 last week, dropped a win to Cleveland. I mean, their schedule is still tough. Like this Ravens team is not really like, I think they're a really good team. Lamar is playing awesome. But like at the end of the day, like you have to be one of the most winningest teams in the league to win MVP basically, or you have to just be playing absolutely unreal.

And so I think Josh Allen being chalk is not a good bet to be honest. They're running the ball so much. Like it's going to force like serious negative game script and him like winning them games. I think for him to be like a clear favorite at any point. And same with kind of like Patrick Mahomes, like going on the board, like they just don't really have the weapons anymore. They've been going through guys like Deandre Hopkins.

They said it was going to play the Rasheed Rice role, despite him never doing that in his entire life. And he didn't, I mean, it's like, you know, exactly like he never, he didn't do that really.

Not quite as much of yak. I scroll going for it on the board though. Two, two guys stood out to me. I still really like Jalen Hurts at 20-1. We talked about him at 30-1 last week. The schedule is just wildly easy, and it's not just the teams that they're playing are beatable.

It's the defenses that they're playing are not very good. So this team is going to score a ton of points. If you can bet on any one team, I think they'll lead the league in points for the rest of the season. I think the Eagles would be one of the top contenders here. And obviously, that means Jalen Hurts is going to play extremely well. So I think that's an interesting one, still 20 to one FanDuel, uh, Caesars. And then one more like way down the board here. This is like, I don't know, like an off market number that I think is just worth like blindly betting,

even though I don't necessarily agree with it. Dak Prescott is 120 to one to an MVP on FanDuel. I mean, like he's not playing well, the Cowboys aren't playing well, but they have no run game. Like if for some reason they win the division or like turn it around, like, again, this is one of those things where he's 50 to one on drafting.

He should probably be like 70 to one, 60 to one, something like that. 120 to one for a guy like Dak Prescott is just like, to me, it seems wild. So again, it's not a bet that I'm making like massively probably throw a couple bucks on it just for you know again like to have it because we talked about it and I think that like again like we look at our

odd screen at four before the futures thing and I saw that I'm like I mean he just shouldn't be 120 to one like ever like at any point in basically any season i don't think i think that's fair i think he's probably you know you're talking about does he have uh less than one percent chance of of winning probably right because this is such a team-driven award too but i also understand your point i mean if they do have these things right you have to kind of think that's why these conversations are interesting right this we have eight weeks to go nine weeks to go whatever the regular season like these things are so reactionary to what happened the week prior right so you even saw you know 100 points gained on lamar from last week as the favorite dropping down a spot so if there's a path to the cowboys doing anything it's going to

be on the arm and shoulder of Dak Prescott, a thousand percent. That is a suspect defense. There's no running game. Like all the things that we talk about when we handicap the Cowboys, all those things line up. It is going to have to be Dak. So again, I've made dumber bets at 120. I bet golf outrights. So like I've, I've definitely done worse things than, than this at 120. So I get it. It didn't jump off the page to me, but I see the FanDuel is kind of an off-market number relative, especially to DraftKings. So I like it.

Yeah, it's a little unique. I'm curious, where are you at? Any long shots or are you just poking the top of the board here? Yeah, I haven't. I'm trying to think of the narratives or what would need to happen. So, yeah, Mahomes isn't in the world on fire by any means. And again, he is fairly or unfairly graded on a curve against historic Patrick

Mahomes stuff. Right. Like he's just been unbelievable. What happens if they go like, you know, they lose one game, they go 50, 60,

one, right. All of a sudden it's like, oh, it's Mahomes. He hasn't turned it over. They're playing awesome. Is there fatigue on it being Mahomes and he's already won and they win all the time and people are going to look for a new way? That's part of why I do think that the Josh Allen number is one to watch.

I think you're probably right jumping in with two plus months to go at three to one. Probably not a good use of your funds right now. But again, even if he is, I think people love Josh Allen. I think he's like liked in the media and these things matter, right? We like, we go back to our Sirianni day ball stuff. Like media stuff matters. Perception matters in these award markets there. You know what it takes to actually win.

These things is less of on the field at times. Josh not winning before. They're four games up basically in the division. If they're like, I don't know, one or two seed, he's been really damn good, not turning the ball over. I think he threw his first pick in like nine weeks last week, just playing really good football. So even though he's not putting up guardian

armors as well i think he is someone to to really watch um i don't know if i buy a rookie quarterback uh it's 16 to 1 being the best number on jane daniels is uh as an mvp candidate but um it's i think the hertz call is really really strong to be honest um relative to the rest of the stuff on the board because they have a path i think legitimately to win the division they do have a path to being one of the better teams in the NFC and these things matter like where your team is in the packing order of things matters for basically all these awards so Hertz is kind of at 20 does stand out a little bit to me but you know I just kind of want to monitor the Josh Allen number and see if we can get something a little bit better because I think right if they push the Chiefs for number one seed he plays really good football I think people

aren't going to want to give it to Lamar just because he's he won last year even if he's playing better right so yeah that's fair I think that's that's completely fair and yeah I agree on the Hurts number I think that's just like I mean the only teams above him are the only yeah like players above him are on like the Lions and then Jaden Daniels on the one Washington who's in division, the lions have to play like basically, I mean, the entire NFC North, which is some of the best teams in the league for the rest of the season. And then Jalen Hurts gets to play the commanders and Cowboys and giants.

And, you know, like, I mean, there's like the schedule is just great for him, whereas it's not as good as for everyone else. So, I mean, maybe, I don't know, if Jaden now duels Jalen Hurts, then obviously, I mean, Jaden's going to be squarely in contention. But yeah, I'm not quite there yet. But I've also kind of been down on Jaden the entire process. So it wouldn't be surprising to be wrong here again. I love to keep up for Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow.

These are egregious prices on these guys currently. Like it makes no sense that Joe Burrow is kind of in this mix at 22, 25 to one. They're two and six. They have to win out and he has to be like, I don't know, like 50 touchdown season, Tom Brady type of numbers for him to do it. Brock Purdy can't do it last year in that setup. When like there was like a really good momentum they were dominant no shot he should not be anywhere near 22 20 to 1 to win this mvp um at

all so a pretty big drop off cj stroud you know makes sense i think the media would want to get behind stroud but uh again they just they keep leaving you wanting a little bit more right like in terms of what they're doing offensively. So how about offensive player of the year? It's been – gosh, I have no idea. So Mahomes was in 18 the last time that this has been a double-dip MVP and offensive player of the year. They started to differentiate and kind of at that next point go elsewhere.

We did have one version of a quarterback winning offensive player of the year and not winning the MVP, which is really rare. Drew Brees, an 08, one offensive player of the year, Peyton Manning, one MVP. So there is a path to it. We have seen this then go mostly to running backs and wide receivers the last handful of years.rick henry your prohibitive favorite in the market currently um 120 140 out there in the market saquon right behind him little shore basically plus 350 uh justin jefferson jamar chase cd lamb right behind that and then you get into some of the quarterbacks that i think are interesting lamar at 20 uh josh allen at 30 um what are your thoughts on offensive player of the quarterbacks that I think are interesting. Lamar at 20, Josh Allen at 30. What are your thoughts on offensive player of the year? Yeah, I think Lamar is kind of interesting too. Like

if say he doesn't win MVP, but it's like crushing, I think that fits exactly what happened with Drew Brees. If I remember correctly, Drew Brees threw for like 5,000 something yards. Like it's something crazy, but the team like wasn't that good um but he was like awesome and so they're like well we can't give this guy mvp because the team sucks but he played really well so um you know like we got to give him something so i mean lamar's team is going to be good like he's going to be squirrelly mixed for mvp but say josh allen or someone else you know jalen hurts crossing our fingers comes out of nowhere and wins mvp like he's probably going to be if he balls out he could be very much in the mix i don't think 20 to one's a necessarily bad price on Lamar. One that I thought

like way down the board, sticking with my Eagles. I mean, people are gonna think I'm an Eagles fan after this. One that I thought was really interesting because the guy's been injured. AJ Brown is averaging 102 receiving yards per game. He's a hundred to one. Um, again, if this goes along with our Eagles thoughts, he's playing, it's literally some of the worst secondaries in the league for the next like 10 games, basically playing against literally some of the worst secondaries in the league for the next 10 games, basically, or the rest of the season. Literally all bottom 10 secondaries. There is no reason to believe that he's not going to just put up

75 to 150 yards a game basically for the entire rest of the season. Again, this is only 101 on drafting, 71 on a fan duel is fine. Drafting is only about $3.45 on it. I wouldn't bet that much more. You know, again, probably like 15, 20 bucks, just throw at it. But like, you know, I think that this is actually a reasonable spot to buy in because he's crushing like the offense we know is going to play better. So 100 to one, I don't think is egregious.

Obviously, he's a long shot. If the season continues how it's going, Derek Henry is probably just going to win because he's scoring like 20 touchdowns, but he can get injured. Ravens can fall behind when they fall behind. Derek Henry like doesn't play basically. So, I mean, things can happen.

Yeah. I mean, not getting into the market is an option, right? Cause I think you make a good point. Like Henry makes a ton of sense. There's no way, shape or form that anyone should be betting Derek Henry currently at prices

to an offensive player of the Year. There are plenty of outs for that to come crashing down at such an egregious, basically coin flip at this point. It's like Henry versus the market in prices. Lamar, and part of why I tried to lay that out and I looked into it, was the Lamar piece. Lamar 20, I think, is very, very interesting. To your point, he just continues to cook and they're competitive he's really good but one of these other mvp candidates that we talked about really kind of emerges and it's kind of a coin flip there i think you'll see voters go against

lamar and be like yeah you know what we're gonna give him offensive player of the year i'm gonna give my vote for that instead so i feel like i'm still honoring lamar in his season but we're going to go somewhere else with the mvp uh there's precedent for it too so again not like super recent but like there are no hard fast rules that can dictate this can't go to a quarterback uh it obviously can't so um we've seen the mvp win this as well so that is also a possibility so lamar 20 makes sense. I like the call out of Adrian Brown, to be honest. The other one that I was going to ask you too is like, what's the amount of games that you can miss? I think this is a valid conversation for MVP and Jordan Love too. Like how many games can you miss to still be kind of in the mix? Obviously missing games,

you then have to elevate your play because Nicoins was awesome before he went down um he's also at 101 so that's also another one that's you know that's been appealing he comes back hits the ground running starts doing what he was doing beforehand you know he'd have to play above aj brown level because he missed those games but what do you think is like you can you miss four games and still win one of these awards i think you can miss four games and this point one of these awards. I think you can miss four games. And this point in the season, you can't miss four games at the end of the season. Like you can't, you have a hundred percent healthy for the last like five,

six games, basically like a hundred percent. So like, that's kind of why at this point, like we're like buying the dip on injured players, things like that. Like someone else gets injured at the top of the board, the landscape entirely shifts.

Like Derek Henry gets injured tomorrow. Like, I mean, again, knock on wood, but you know, it's, I mean like the landscape shift shifts. Like Derek Henry gets injured tomorrow. Like, I mean, again, knock on wood, but you know, it's, uh, I mean like the landscape shift shifts entirely. So it's one of those things that a lot of it's going to be luck and flukiness at the end of the season.

I think you could probably miss, you could even miss another game or two in the middle of the season. If he comes back and puts up like five, 200 yard games or 14 yard games, which is actually in the range of outcomes without Stefan digs. Like, I don't think it's that crazy. Um, I think he could win. I mean, like, I think that's definitely possible. Defensive play of the year. Uh,

we've emerging favorite here as well. Um, TJ watt is prohibitive favorite plus 100, basically across the board, plus one Oh five on Caesars, a little drop off to will Anderson jr. Uh, numbers as good as six,

Chris Jones in the mix, 14, kind of a rogue number relative to the rest of the stuff on the board for Chris Jones. 14 on FanDuel. Dexter Lawrence absolutely cooking this season. I put a sack prop, Connor, at four and a quarter. I mean, an absolute smash at four and a quarter. He's got nine. I mean, that was free money. Did I get paid out on this yet?

He was our cover boy for, yeah, did i get paid out on this yet he was our cover boy for uh for yeah you should get paid on that uh cover boy on our on our uh preseason prop bets four and a quarter just egregious bo said 15 xavier mckinney who's just making interceptions every week which is kind of wild at 22 at no point has a player one defensive player of the year on a team that does not go to the playoffs so this is a start crossing dudes off you start to cross off Dexter Lawrence here start to have conversations about some other guys that I think is interesting now Now, again, we've not been, I think we're still probably, it's getting harder,

Connor six and two. We've not been there on the Steelers. They're now like minus 400 to make the playoffs. Uh, schedules gets way harder, but, um, what can't win this war without them making the playoffs again,

you can get three to one for them to not make the playoffs, which is obviously, you know, an alternative to this too, but, too but thoughts on defensive player of the year yeah i i think i'm gonna let you drive most of the the defensive awards here because you just like know significantly more than i do about these markets um like i want to take you know longer shots because i do think that we we had this we talked about this all off season like the sealers are going to play great in the first half of the season and we can't be prisoners of the moment of what we saw and they're playing awesome. Their defense looks great. Their offense, Russ looks very good. To be honest, he looks fantastic for what it is. Um, that's not going to, I don't think that's going

to remain the same here. Um, we again talked about it last week, even with Clark, like when the Steelers fall behind, what's going to happen? I have very, very low expectations in those scenarios. So and that should happen a reasonable amount, especially with the Browns starting Jameis here. Second half of the season like this is, you know, they get the Browns twice. What is it? Chiefs, Bengals, I believe Ravens twice. Like they have, you know, a lot of really good teams. So I'm selling the TJ watt at even money here,

but I don't know where else to go with it. That makes sense. Yeah. Also selling the TJ watt. I mean, he is awesome. He is awesome, but this is just a not tenable number at all. What was really, really interesting to me. And I look at next on the board is Will Anderson Jr. at six to one. The actual lead league leader in pressures, which again, a better indicator than sacks, right? Sacks are just, you know, a end result and they matter.

There's something to be said for converting the pressures into sacks. By margin, your league leader in pressures is will anderson's teammate uh daniel hunter who is a sack and a half behind will anderson jr he is 40 to 1 to win defensive player of the year why anderson jr is 6 to 1 and daniel hunter is 40 makes absolutely no sense um the team leads the league of pressures and it's mostly driven by these two. They've both been awesome. And Anderson, I think, is part of it. It's the pedigree, right?

We're reigning defensive rookie of the year. But it doesn't make any sense to me at all that there's a massive 34-point gap, basically, in the market for these two players where it's a playoff team. I think we both believe the Texans are a playoff team. There's a clear path that, of a sudden you start to see a higher conversion of sacks for Daniil Hunter, who has been one of the most consistent sack producers in the league for the last five years. So it's not like he's playing out of nowhere good. He's just been awesome for a long time in Minnesota, and now he's doing it in Houston. So that jumps out to me as a longer down the board shot at 40

that just feels mispriced. This has also been something that's kind of gone to edge rushers or at least defensive linemen over the last handful of years too. So that would be somewhere I'd want to go. Someone like McKinney or Patrick Sertain, like, man, you got to like break records. You got to have like an insane amount of team level success and actual individual success.

Basically, for Sutan to be a play, you almost need the Broncos to win the division. He's only got two picks. I know he's really good, but he's got no shot. McKinney's part of probably a playoff team. He's got a bunch of picks. The rest of it's just kind of, okay, he's a good player, but is he defensive player of the year?

Good? No. So give me Hunter as a nice little like watch there at 40, as you get further down the board, because you still have to cross guys out because playoffs matter here. Historically, it's been the max Crosby argument the last couple of years. Like he's 20 in some spots,

like you just can't, you can't go there because they're not making the playoffs. So Fred Warner has been awesome. But you know, I'm worried about what's going on in the team there. That'd probably be the other one down the board, Fred 35 on draft Kings, but a Hunter's probably my favorite down the board. Look cool. Yeah what's going on on the team there. That would probably be the other one down the board, Fred 35 on DraftKings. But Hunter's probably my favorite down the board look.

Cool. Yeah, I like that logic there. You know, just a quick shout-out and rest in peace to Aiden Hutchinson, who I know we bet on preseason that I think would have won pretty handily here, to be honest, on his trajectory. Seven and a half sacks in five games. Lions are crushing for the most part. Checked all the boxes.

Yeah. I mean, Russell rest in peace over like 11 and a quarter sacks. Just was going to, he probably would have that now or close to it the way he was cruising. Yeah. It's tough. Offensive rookie of the year.

I mean, are we outside of a two man race or is this even a two man race? Obviously the head to head win last week was pretty impactful. Jane Daniels minus minus 400 on DraftKings. Caleb out to 10-1 on FanDuel is best in market there, which is interesting. Can you make a case for someone else? I mean, obviously, we're not laying 400 on Jane Daniels, but is there a non-Jaden case to be made?

Yeah, so, I mean, Jane Daniels is one of like – on jayden daniels but you know is there a non-jayden case to be made yeah so i mean jayden daniels is one of like i mean dude just don't bet in my minus 400 please like for the love of god i mean this guy is a walking injury like this is he's already gotten banged up once and he toughed it out like he takes hard hits he's built like a twig really good quarterback but just i mean don't lay any futures with this guy um bet on him week to week if you want to bet something on him. I'll go way down the board again just because this has been my MO. Brock Bauer is at 65-1 on DraftKings. Leads all tight ends in receiving yards as a rookie.

I mean, like... That's a bad number, too, compared to him. Yeah, like, I mean, he's 28-1 at FanDuel, 25-1 at Caesars. Like, I think he should be higher than that. Like, I don't know. Brian Thomas jr. Is out for a couple of weeks. He should be like below him. I mean, Bo Nix is playing fine, but they played against a bunch of cupcakes.

So like, I'm not betting on him either. Um, I don't know. I think Brock Bowers should be like, again, if he keeps this up, which it seems like he is, he's the only guy out there capable of doing anything for the Raiders. Like, I don't know. I mean, Brock Bowers is going to break the tight end rookie receiving record. Um, and he's probably going to lead all tight ends and receiving. So I don't know, 65 to one to me seems crazy. If Caleb doesn't keep playing well, like, I mean, he played really well against a bunch of bad defenses. Didn't play all that well against

the commanders who, uh, I think are playing better defense, but, um, may are still maybe aren't a good defense and now it gets, you know, the Cardinals, which I think will be another good test because they're not a very good defense. So he doesn't play well here. Like, I mean, this is another warning sign. So, yeah, I think Bauer 65 to one is interesting. Yeah, it's it jumps off the screen in terms of relative to where it's available elsewhere. And then just some of the guys around them, as you kind of highlighted too, Brian Thomas. The other one is down the board. And again, I think having, you know, quarterback make majority or all the starts, you have such a leg up,

which is why if something happened to Gene Daniels, where Bonix gets real interesting just because they're competitive. Right now they're five and three. He's been okay. You know, he gets real short, real quick. Malik Nabors has been awesome. In any other scenario, you know he gets real short real quick malik neighbors has been awesome um in any other scenario you know where you don't have a bunch of quarterbacks making every start um you know he becomes real appealing at 28 to 1 on fan duel um and again this is not one of i think this is

one of those awards where team success matters less than others like if you're just balling out um you can win this award so it doesn't really matter what happens to the giants doesn't really matter what happens to the raiders i think brock bowers and malik neighbors uh have standalone value regardless of their team so yeah just just kind of a monitor you just kind of wait and see if unfortunately i don't want to like james jane daniels i don't want to actually get hurt miss games he's kind of already been hurt almost missed a game uh it's very very possible and this is a He's kind of already been hurt, almost missed a game. It's very, very possible, and this is a market to kind of watch if something happens there.

Otherwise, for sure. Watching 101 on Drake May. If he can get healthy. Clear concussion protocol. I'm just joking. It's too far. It's gone too far. Defensive rookie of the year.

Jared Verse is your prohibited favorite here uh minus number which is also interesting um plus 100 on draft kings is the best price um and then down the board really kind of a weak year for defensive rookie of the year which is why i think you see the board oh kind of what we thought even coming in right which is a draft where defense was ignored for the first what 14 15 14, 15 picks of the draft until the coach grabbed Layatu Latu, and he's second on the board at 6-1. Do you have any thoughts on defensive rookie there?

Like, are any of these guys any good? Like, I mean, this is like... Yeah, but I mean, like, massively impactful? Like, I don't know. That's kind of crappy. It's a crappy class. How did Cooper DeGene play last week? Good. Because I know that I've been betting unders against, you know,

the guys that he's been playing against, you know, a little bit and it's been working pretty well. I just, you know, I love the Eagles so much. I know how many, I've talked about an Eagles player in every single market.

Um, he's playing, but you're playing pretty well. I mean, 25 to one, I don't mind that. Um, but again,

I don't, I mean, you need like stats like just like being like oh yeah like no one threw my way is not really it's not a viable case for the media members to vote on you that's the thing right you do you know especially if you're um you're not getting sacks um these defensive markets love sacks so much. You do need like picks. You need like, or you need a splash play in December, right? Like you need a game saving pick six or like something that happens. And all of a sudden it's like, yeah, you know what?

He's been playing really well anyway. And all of a sudden he's like, he's kind of lingering. And all of a sudden you wake up and he was 25 and now he's like eight. Like, oh, what happened? Well, you know, great, great game on an island game or, you know, in a late Sunday window. I think that's how fragile this particular market is. Versus been good.

Better than I thought, playing more than I thought, getting a ton of pressures, not converting a high level of sacks, but getting a ton of pressures. It's a pretty poor defense. Does he win this award if there's another guy that's pretty close and the rams don't make the playoffs i don't know uh definitely doesn't feel like he should be priced there no one's really making the case to be really close to him um i have a deep

down the board deep dive and it's the same premise as your cooper dejean thought is you're gonna need something more than just playing. Well, I'm going to have to make some picks, you know, some interceptions, make some good plays, but I banged the drum all draft season for my guy out of Michigan.

Second round pick Mikey Sanristle cornerback, who is maybe five, seven generously small little guy, but an absolute dog Connor, like willing run stopper stopper has been awesome. And I wanted to comment on your tweet. Cause I saw you at a tweet today talking about the change in the commander's defense and they've been playing better and they've made a big change. They took Sanders still from being a, depending on how often your team runs 11, 65, 75% snap guy. And they're putting him on the outside and he's holding up DJ more last week, Roma doomsday last week, even though he's undersized, he's really good. Like I said,

without a doubt, if this kid was six, one, he was a top 10 pick last year. He's not 6'1". That size in the perimeter is hard, but he's really, really, really good. FanDuel has 150 number on Mikey Sanderson. So if this is a playoff team, this defense starts to play better and really starts to prove what we're kind of seeing recently. It does coincide with a shift of him moving outside and playing every snap instead of being a part-timer. He puts together one of those splash plays, whatever starts to make a couple of interceptions, you know,

some like tackles in the backfield, some, something that gets attention other than just like, Oh, this guy's playing really well. Then he's way off price at one 50. So again, longer shot for sure. But I think the one 50 on FanDuel is something that's probably worth a sprinkle on maybe some beer and pizza money i just bet it i was looking at the prices while you're talking

and i'm like how far do i gotta scroll for this guy i'm like scrolling scrolling then i see oh 41 and drafts 151 a fanduel and newton likes this guy i'm like all right i gotta let you throw a little bit a couple bucks on it um yeah i mean i don't think it's an accident like i you know it's it's hard to say like you know we have priors on what these teams are defensively and we saw it early in the season and the commanders early defensively were who we thought they were um but i think there is something to be said for we've seen these dan quinn defenses have these pops right they play kind of an aggressive style he likes to play man more he likes to blitz from the second level more um i see why i like sanderson like he's a guy that you can blitz from the corner he did it a ton in michigan you know you get those like strip sack plays like these are the type of plays that like

can turn a narrative award situation like this into uh you know him being all of a sudden you wake up and he's 60 oh what happened uh you know it's all of a sudden we have some some lclv that we feel pretty good about this we get to december so again because this award of all of them feels like the thinnest uh shots on the board probably make the most sense so that's definitely by far my favorite yeah and i like that uh too just like the commanders since week four fourth in epa per play first in per drop back epa fifth and dropback success rate which is like they were like literally i mean the worst for like all last year and the first three weeks they were not good again uh they got kind of still smoked by the ravens a little bit but um a lot of that's

been on the ground like their secondary has been playing pretty well um again again albeit against like kind of shitty opponents like it's, Panthers, a couple other teams. But still, again, they were bad all of last year against bad opponents. No matter who it was, they were just getting rinsed. Justin Fields threw for like 400 against them. I mean, that says whatever you need to know. That was like career highs from Justin Fields against them.

That says enough. Yeah, that's a good point. So still wait and see on the Commanders. But yeah, it's definitely something to watch here. Comeback Player of the Year. I mean, this is always one that I hate so very much because it felt like such a no one knew what coming back from was. They tried to put some parameters around it.

How that's executed from the voter standpoint seems to be something we don't know yet kurt cousins your favorite um that plus 175 plus 150 on fan duel this is not everywhere i don't think so you have to watch your markets uh jk dobbins burrow demar hamlin actually playing and playing good football um i don't know what he's coming back from now like is he coming can you come back from something two years ago because i don't know he's I don't know what happened last year for him to come back for other than just not being good and not playing. Uh, but he's, you know, right there in the mix as well. What are your thoughts? Any thoughts on comeback play of the year? Yeah, I think Nick Chubb at like seven, nine to one on MGM plus seven 50 and fan duel is kind of interesting. He's played

really, he played really well against the Ravens last week. He's basically seized back the entire role um he's i think like 17 touches or something like that in his second week back i mean guy's gonna just be he's an absolute beast so like if you're betting on anyone in this market like this team just seems better to with james like all around like he's gonna if nick chubbs rolls off you know maybe seven eight touchdowns the end of the season is playing well like he'll he'll be right next to kirk cousins um so it'll be like more like a 50 50 proposition there i mean i have a tough time saying that kirk won't win if he stays healthy to be honest because he's he's slinging it he's playing pretty well um but but nick chubb again like i mean nick chubb was only played half the season he like whatever like broke his leg like

in half you know it's just like brutal scene last year. So, I mean, I don't know. Possible. People love Nick Chubb too. It's not been a guy that's like always going to be up for awards because the nature of the running back position. So it's like one of those things that people would love to, to get him in the mix on. So yeah, if you're looking a little bit further down the board,

I think he's probably viable. I also agree with your Kirk takes, you know, at plus one 75 plus one 50 is probably a properly priced favorite. Nothing you should be grabbing still this far out for all the reasons we've talked about with the other awards. Christian Gonzalez is playing really good football. He's not going to win this award. He's 100 to one.

Unfortunately, the Pats might win, I don't know, four games. And again, he's going to have to like get eight picks or something crazy to do that. But, you know, he's been playing good football. So the rest of it's not super exciting for me. We'll wrap with Coach of the Year. Then we'll get into some Week 9 thoughts here. Dan Quinn on DraftKings is your favorite at plus 220.

O'Connell there at 5-1. Sean Payton, 550. Jim Harbaugh, 6 to one are your favorites. You Andy Reed, Dan Campbell, right behind there too. Any thoughts on coach of the year? Where's our sprinkle down the board?

Yeah, this one's a tough one. I mean, I'm just, I don't think I've really been that good at this market to be honest. So you might just have a better, better hold on this than me. It's the,

the Sirianni thing still in my head from like three years ago. Yeah you shook a little bit and rightfully so it was a great bet it felt like a great bet and then it was yeah it was three months it was or you made it during the summer so you had a great bet in your pocket for like four or five months until you didn't yeah i mean dan quinn being plus 220s makes a ton of sense like if the commanders make the playoffs he's probably winning the award to be honest because they were not projected to be very good um same with kevin o'connell like i mean if the vikings continue to dominate it makes sense that one of those two guys are probably in a good spot sean payton and the broncos plus there's like a lot of really good coaches these top four with harbaugh and payton too like these are all like

legit really good stories with teams that like correct are being turned around and like coach very well like i have a tough time getting going to fight on the board but i think you said you had one right or no no i just this is uh definitely one i think is a late ad uh because yeah and maybe that's also my mentality based off of what happened there with dayball and sirianni was like there was no doubt that sirianni was the right call we're're heading into December, right? And then it just, it switched so quickly, a narrative, New York narrative. They weren't expected to do well. And that's kind of your point. I think with these top four, that's kind of something that is required for coach of the year. This is why like Andy Reid never wins this award. Bill Belichick's barely ever won this award. You know, you're

basically coaching it's about like exceeding expectations almost as much as anything else that's kind of the the hole in the matl floor here is that he's coaching his face off like by any means that you would probably try to determine that he's at 12 to 1 but the packers everyone thought they were going to be pretty good coming into the season. So like, it's really hard for him to make a jump ahead of some of these other teams that are way outperforming where our preseason expectations were. So that gets really, really tricky.

Same thing as Sean McVay. Like, all right, they kind of have to win the division almost. I don't know. The, the one that would be interesting is, is Mike McDonald.

If the Seahawks kind of get back to what they look like they were early and mike mcdonald was a you know sitting at the top of this board not very long ago and they started to scuffle a little bit big one in the division this week which we'll get to shortly but mcdonald at 35 be kind of a number that i would monitor because i think he checks the boxes that we require um even though the seahawks are kind of like you know know, fringe playoff team coming into the season expectation-wise, you know, if they actually win this division, start to play some really good football, I think he'd be a driving force for that. For sure.

But that's it. Yeah. All right, buddy. I think it's a good conversation. I think it's fun to start to have these as we kind of get closer to the tail of the season. So we'll check back periodically. But let's jump into a couple of the exciting games here on the Week 9 slate.

Robbed a little bit of what I think is going to be an exciting game. Maybe it still is. Lions are on the road in Green Bay. Obviously, it looks like probably no Jordan Love. Did not practice today. Riding the bike on the side with a groin injury. We have Malik Willis, which exceeded expectations, definitely, both last week

and the two times he had to start early in the season. We have seen the market react, though, pretty drastically. Lions are three-and-a-half point road favorites in some spots. There is a juicy minus 118.3 out there as well. Forty-eight, 40-and-a-half is the total. What are your thoughts here on Lions and Packers? Yeah, they opened at four and a half even too, because they were like just not expecting to play.

Didn't Jordan Love didn't practice today on Wednesday. Without him, I have a really tough time backing the Packers here with Jordan Love. I'm kind of interested. I think this line secondary is a little bit suspect. Without getting pressure, we've seen them be a little bit leaky. But the Lions offense is just, I mean, awesome. Like they're just an absolute, uh, horse at this point. Uh, so it's really tough to fade them, especially against the Packers defense that frankly hasn't played all that well this season. So, um, yeah, I mean, I think if we get Malik Willis here and we can find a still, there's a minus three about rivers. I mean, I'll probably be laying it with the lions. I know the

Malik that's burned me in the past, but I still think stinks so i mean i'm just i'm not ready to say that one or two good games that i'm ready to say that malik willis is back or exists not he was never there so there's no back he exists but yeah i mean again he gets coaching i think like this guy took a ton of sacks in college took a ton of sacks last year with tennessee and saw this on next gen stats he's getting the ball out so quickly 36 percent of willis's attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage it is just like get it to you know jane reed and go like just like just dump off to the running backs like just let someone else create um He took some shots down the field, had some success, but they're so, just get the ball out, get the playmakers.

Good offensive line. To your point, the Lions pass rush obviously lost quite a bit with Hutch, but they've kind of pivoted. They are, since Hutch went down week seven, they're blitzing at the league's highest rate, 46% of the dropbacks. The Lions are blitzing. So that is their way 46 of the dropbacks uh the lions are blitzing so that that is their way to kind of work around this other guys have gone down too i mean they lost uh you know marcus davenport early in the season josh pascal comes in the week after hutch

plays really good like oh this kid's exciting they've liked him quite a bit and they draft him in kentucky and that hutch draft he goes down he's hurt so like they got absolutely nobody's uh on the edge here so they're having to find any ways to generate pressure that they can so interesting to see if you know how does willis respond uh with the blitz i think it just ends up being more short passes in yak for some of his receivers but um it's really hard to step in front of the the aloha Blue train right now. I think maybe Lions team total would probably be my favorite way. I just can't see a scenario where they're not hanging 28 to 30

in the spot against the Packers. So, yeah, it was going to be an awesome game. I think it's probably still entertaining, but it sucks. This is my NFC Championship game, and hopefully we get love back. When this is in Detroit, we get a rem and hopefully we get love back and uh when this is in detroit we get a rematch because those games were interesting last year i mean green bay went into detroit and boat raced them uh no one was expecting that so uh next sunday afternoon game uh chicago on the road in arizona uh we are looking at uh arizona is a short

one point favorite basically across the market. Total is the same everywhere else, 44.5 as well. You kind of touched on it there. I don't really know what to make of the Bears' performance against Washington. Coming out of the bye, definitely had higher expectations for what we saw. Is there something to be said for Washington's defense playing better? What they're doing is generating a ton of pressure. Washington, I mean, they got to Caleb like 52% of the time.

They got pressure on the drop axis. Insane. That's kind of been going on all year for the Bears, but that was even higher than normal. Yeah, thoughts on Bears and Cardinals. Yeah, that's definitely, I mean, it's been the Bears bug woo all season. Like it's like, you know,

Houston just absolutely demolished them, you know, bringing five basically every single time. If I i remember correctly the cardinals don't blitz very often like and they don't get pressure very often right they do not they're 30 of the pressure rate um only the panthers and falcons are worse they just lost dennis gardek for the season uh that should not be a name that we reference or a name that should matter. But for them, it does. He leads the team with three sacks. Like they have nothing pressure wise. So to your point, like there's so many reasons why Caleb should,

I don't want to say cook, but he should be way better in the spot if he's not. I mean, he played like awesome against in other games where they didn't get pressure. And like, if you give him a little bit of time and like, you know, there's those clips of him like going through multiple reads against Carolina and just like dissecting them. He looked awesome. I kind of think we're going to see something similar here.

I like Chicago in this spot on the other side to Arizona's offense has had a lot of real issues against like any good defense, like, and not even good. Like they've actually only played well in like two games. It was against the Rams and the dolphins. Every other game they've kind of been, I mean, they're actually only played well in like two games. It was against the Rams and the dolphins. Every other game they've kind of been, I mean,

they're, they're played well against the Niners kind of, I mean, there was like a special teams or like random, like, you know, it was like some random stuff that happened there. Like they just haven't played all that well this season.

And the bears defense is good. Like they, they let up a lot of yards to, to Jaden Daniels. Again, this is the number one offense in the league heading into the game, basically in terms of EPA. And they didn't let up a single red zone touchdown,

if I remember correctly, or maybe it was one red zone touchdown to Brian Robinson, I believe. And then they obviously had the hail Mary, but it's like they were Ben, but don't break, which is fine. I mean,

that keeps you in games. And so like, I think the bears win here and I think that they win by more than three points, which I know I'm wearing a bear shirt. I'm again, I just, we have fanatics gift cards. So cards so i you know just like bought some random bear swag and random stuff like that so yeah we've got a bear's watch party for the company this weekend so yeah it feels good to maybe back them and feel like uh actually do have a live actual shot and we don't have to just have the ticket because we're watching them in the

bar together but i i think the cardinals are i think their defense is clearly the worst unit here um and it's a bad defense like there's some players in the back i'm a matt i love buda baker so much but like the rest of this defense isn't good they're lasting yards per drive uh they're lasting time possession per drive like they just don't get off the field they'll keep you on for third downs you know again when you're basically, when you're worse than Carolina in some stuff defensively, that's tough. Only Carolina is worse in points per drive percentage of drives that result in a score.

But they're second in those, those metrics. So you can't generate pressure in this league. Man, you got to have some heroes on the outside and they do not have that either. So it just, you know,

this gets kind of, kind of bad. I know like they're four and four definitely surprised some people since people talk up some carnal stuff in like the futures market and i just it's so thin to me i just do not see it i still think to your point offense is not something that i have a ton of trust in good to see them get marv cooking a little bit uh james connor's playing really good so like this is not a team though bear the bears we were just gonna have to like get this outscore them uh with this bears defense which i still think is solid this had some injuries i think it'd have to get everyone back here if they

get kyler gordon back and jacquan brisker back i think that's a little bit uh tougher sledding for arizona here so i like the bears quite a bit um another late afternoon sunday game the rams are in seattle uh rams-point road favorite here. 48, 40 and a half is the total. Both teams got healthy a little bit. Rams felt like a new look team, basically. Getting Cooper Cupp and Pukunukua back. DK Medcalf back as well for Seattle.

Connor, thoughts on Rams-Seahawks? Yeah, it feels like a great buy-low spot on the Seahawks for me. Both teams are seemingly trending in the other opposite directions after last week with the Rams getting those guys back. Puka Nakua playing well, coming off the opposite win off against the Vikings, whereas, you know, the Seahawks were just boat raced by Buffalo. I mean, again, like this Rams defense is horrible. Like the Seahawks offense should have plenty of success here.

And then this Rams offense, I think they're good. You know, Puka Nakua is getting healthier. Cooper Cup to me didn't look fully healthy. He was like, you know, I don't know, 70%, something like that. And I think that they're going to have some success offensively, but I, you know, getting day, you're getting them as, as underdogs here. I think genuinely believe Seattle is the better team here in total. So I like the, I like Seahawks money line here. I think it's kind of an interesting look. I like Seahawks too. Seahawks, you know,

is a viable teaser leg for you to, you know, at minus one and a half, two, uh, through the three and through the seven is also really nice. Um, I mean,

they should be able to run the football on LA. It just, can they, can they even kind of commit to running the football? I know that was frustrating last week. They say, and then they're like, nah, we're not going frustrating last week. They say, and then they're like, nah,

we're not going to do that. Or they fall behind and they're like, Nope, nevermind. Um, or they have like a couple of runs that just like, don't go anywhere. Like the guy misses a block.

And then Kenneth Walker, there was multiple times where Kenneth Walker had to just beat a corner and he's like offer 40, 50 yards. And he only ran the ball like a couple of times. And he gets tackled on the last tackle. I'm like, dude, this is like legitimate game changing plays. One one play and they don't commit to it.

They just like leave it alone because they don't have DK Metcalf. So hopefully he's back this week. Seem like a week to do it too, whereas it seems like you can win there sometimes against Buffalo. No DK. It's like, all right, we'll just shift philosophy a little bit. You know, let's get Kenneth Walker going in the passing game. Let's, let's feed him on the ground. And they just, yeah, Ryan Grubb cannot cannot help himself he just wants to drop gino back a ton which is that's my only scare here the rams have been generating pressure we talked about with the jared first off they haven't been getting home a ton but like seattle's been partially because they you know they drop back so often they've been giving up a lot of pressures on the season but

uh you know skewed gino's been doing a decent job at avoiding those. But yeah, I think that Seattle's the better team, and I like them getting points at home. It feels like an overreaction to just Buffalo's awesome. And yeah, they get their ass kicked, but Buffalo's maybe a legit Super Bowl contender, right? So I'm just not buying the Rams defense being that good. So Indy on the road, Sunday night football against the Vikings. Vikings are five point favorites.

46 and a half is the total. Oh, Connor, Anthony Richardson, man. It's tough. Yeah. Rest in peace.

He's your guy. I know. Um, I mean, I'll let you have the floor here. I'm sure you, we have a lot of similar things to say. Yeah.

I mean, I have a few thoughts have a lot of similar things to say. Yeah. I mean, I have a few thoughts. I have a lot of thoughts. I think it's a bad – I think it's overall bad. I think it's a really bad decision. Now, here's what I'll say. And, Coach, I have a lot of expanded thoughts on that. The variable here is him tapping himself out.

And that seems to be what – whether they're telling us that's the case or not you know i don't want to say like a loss of the locker room but like the offensive line was pretty outspoken about that like his center like the guy who you like touch his taint uh 60 times a game uh when like you should have a pretty strong bond with that guy and that guy is willing to like openly come out and question you after the game be like you can't do that dude now i'm watching the play i thought he hurt his hip and he kind of got hit in the head at the same time so i thought maybe there was something there and maybe i'm thinking too it's just kind of a young kid maybe he was just saying that after the game i haven't heard this but my thought was like he didn't want to

make an excuse for the hip um which has been an issue. And like, didn't want to say like, Hey, I have a hip, my hip injury is still bothering me. I'm just going to say, Oh, I needed a breather. But saying I needed a breather was unmistakably worse because your team definitely did not respect that. So I think that was part of it, even though we haven't heard that from the organization, but just to take this kid who you knew as a project who had such limited reps barely any starts as a rookie and then to like pull the rug from him here seems really short-sighted for a team an organization that's been i think pretty forward-thinking in some stuff in terms of player development in terms of the way that they approach the draft um undoubtedly they probably have a better shot to win football games right now with joe flacco and that's just the reality and that's kind of how the nfl works but uh yeah i mean i don't know

which team needs it i don't know they're getting rid of them because they got them on a rookie contract for a few more years but it's tough to go back from or to them after you uh pulled them here yeah i was pretty disappointed uh i mean i i saw some people defending like him saying that like he was tired because the play was like pretty intense and stuff like that and like yeah it was obviously a really intense play but you can't hear the quarterback you can't take yourself out ever like you're just you got to be in there every single play no matter what if you're injured call or if you're like banged up or tired call time out or i don't know hand the ball off like they did anyways you know what i mean like call like check it at the line just hand it off i don't

know i mean like do something else uh and so i think there are a lot of ways you could have played that and if you were tired and you and you thought about that just lie about it i mean just lie say like i was banged up like my some of my knees on my hip i mean just that's way better i mean i'm not gonna lie it's it's like not everyone is ready for the truth. And as you know, in the leadership example right there, that's like, it's not a good, not a good lead. You're not leading by example there. That's a bad decision. Um, especially if you've lost the locker room. But so I, the more I thought about this decision though, I thought that Shane Steichen, like maybe he's on the hot seat or something like that because for the long run, like he has to be your guy basically right like Joe Flacco maybe you make like a wild card appearance

if you get really hot and the defense plays better I mean they're like 500 but like you're not winning the Super Bowl like you're basically just saving your job um and so like I think that's kind of where his where his decision making came like, hey, I want to win games now. I am not ready for this roller coaster. And so that's probably how I would guess that they made the decision because Anthony Richardson is significantly more upside, only playing 10 games. It's just crazy to me that they made this decision here.

So I don't know. I just don't understand it because if you were not committed to at least three seasons of this, you shouldn't have taken him. End of story. Yeah. Everything you said is correct. Like any, even anytime you're, you're gassed, it's just one of those times to be like, lay on the field a little bit longer.

Yeah. Right. Grab your hammy. Yeah. Like just to have the, have the medical crew come out, walk off the field with them and stay right there. Keep you holding on. Tell him you're ready to go right back in.

You cannot tell him you're gassed. Again, I rewatched the game. I watched the game a lot. I had a Nick Cross tackle. I had Richardson over rushing yards. I was pretty locked into the game. I rewatched it on Monday. Again, I'm not a tape bro.

I'm not a scout. He didn't play that bad and it's really hard to say that when he threw like completely like two of 18 passes um if you want to tell me that he's a running back and he's not an nfl quarterback i cannot believe for a second that you actually watched him play football in the context outside of the red zone or of highlights that you saw or whatever there were were some really good plays, some really good processing, some really good throws that were dropped. This is a team that got 24 pressures on the day. Like they lived in the backfields.

Daniil Hunter and Willie Anderson Jr. were at his feet all day long. This was a really tough, tough spot. And yeah, he made some bad throws. And yes, he's a less than average or accurate quarterback. It is impossible to argue against that. But there's some good in there that you should probably be nurturing. And I am really hard to, it's a tough sell to tell me he's going to get better watching Flacco. Yeah.

I want to add two in there. Michael Pittman Jr. is playing like absolute ass. I mean, he is like, we bet his under last week, actually the last two weeks, he barely got there two weeks ago. Didn't come close this week. I mean, Benjamin Solak had a thread on it, was like, get out of your break, 11.

You know, like, do this, 11, do this, 11. It was just like reels and highlights of Michael Pittman. Just like, I mean, he's just like running, like he's got a pole up his ass. Like literally like he's like, can't move because he's like a broken back. You know, like he was supposed to go on ir three weeks ago and he's just been toughing it out i mean presumably just shooting himself up you know the training staffs are

shooting him up with whatever they can and he just can't move he can't separate and i think he needs all the juice he can because he was i thought a good receiver but not a great one to begin with uh and if you're that banged up with an inaccurate quarterback, like this is not going to work. So I, he did no favors for Anthony Richardson was my point there. So I don't know. I'm in this match specifically. I actually want to fade Flacco circling back here. I want,

I like the Vikings here in this spot. Vikings minus five. I think Flacco is an upgrade on the field right now, but I mean, we've seen Flacco lose plenty of games too like he got boat raced in uh in the playoffs by the browns uh i mean a lot of us do the defense too if they fall behind like yes he can come back but he makes plenty of mistakes he's not like he just says people love him because a lot of good stats like james like he's like stack stats in you know maybe

he'll throw a pick like at the two yard line or pick six and then he gets another drive drive. We throw another 70, 80 yards. Like, and we are all like sitting there clapping our hands. Cause we have all the prop overs and everything. Cause we know that's how it goes. But like real football, like it doesn't always translate to win. So, um, I'm on the Vikings here. The Vikings offense played awesome Colts defense, Malik Wilson, week two, just feels week four Titans in week six dolphins without two in week seven. Uh. And that's the only reason that their metrics even look okay. Otherwise, I think they're a pretty bad defense. I think they're much improved defensively. They got DeForest Buckner back last week.

I think that matters a ton. They lived, again, in the backfield against C.J. Stroud. They didn't convert a ton of sacks, but they were pretty good. I think Buckner is a difference maker. Vikings are going to miss Christian Derrissaw pretty badly. I think that shows up here a little bit. I am kind of with you though, too, in the sense that I'm nervous about how the blitz and how Flacco handles an

aggressive blitz. Cause you sometimes see Flores turn it up. Sometimes it's like, oh, they'll blitz 30%. And then sometimes like we're able to blitz 60% of our drawbacks and just see if you can make really quick, smart decisions and see if we can make some, you know, tackles, clean it up sometimes it's like oh they'll blitz 30 and then sometimes like we're gonna blitz 60 of our drawbacks and just see if you can make really quick smart decisions and see if we can make some uh you know tackles clean it up behind um so i don't have a great feel for the game um but i think there's going to be some a ton of prop opportunities here um both offenses some defensive props for sure play volume could be pretty decent in the spot too so uh yeah there's

some definitely some opportunities here without a doubt but the colts defense is one i think we need to watch they're healthy um and they're as healthy as they're going to be because they've had some season-long injuries but i think they're going to be a team to watch and this is actually part of the discouraging part for me with the whole anthony richardson thing is you're going to have flacko come in defense starts to show a pulse. They maybe start to win more football games and they're going to be like, see, that was the right call. We nailed it.

And now that sucks. So yeah. All right, buddy. Tough, tough scene. Look at us. It'd be a short show.

We nail an hour. Anyway, we can't help ourselves. Yeah. We talk about futures like 40 minutes. So to be fair, I think the actual week nine stuff we only went for 20 minutes yeah that's fine i think it's good stuff hopefully you thought it was good

as well subscribe uh wherever you're listening wherever you're watching four for four bets on the youtube channel move the line wherever you listen to podcasts we back on friday 3 p.m eastern connor myself john high slot for props i feel it in my bones. Millionaire bets coming on this week. We're going to get there. So if you want to be a millionaire on Sunday night slash Monday morning, you're going to want to watch that podcast and that show because we're going to get there. Feel it.

So good stuff as always, Connor. Appreciate it. Everyone, make sure you come back on Friday for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everybody.