Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Week 9 NFL Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions | Bengals, Bills & More!

Episode Date: November 1, 2023

Welcome to the ULTIMATE Week 9 NFL Betting Guide! Dive deep into expert analysis, latest odds, and top predictions for upcoming games featuring teams like the Bengals, Bills, and more. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the game, our comprehensive NFL sports betting guide provides insights to help you make informed decisions. Don't miss out on key tips and tricks to maximize your NFL Week 9 betting experience. Subscribe now for weekly updates!Timestamps:0:00 Intro7:14 Dolphins vs. Chiefs Best Bets20:05 Seahawks vs. Ravens NFL Week 9 Bets28:15 Cowboys vs. Eagles Best Bets37:30 Bills vs. Bengals Week 9 Best Bets NFL49:31 More Week 9 NFL Bets & OutroSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by my friends to talk nfl week nine sides and totals joined here as always by connor allen and sharp clark car go to you first what's going on buddy not much coming off of a great week one of the best weeks i've had honestly in a while which is pretty fun uh when 11 and 4 in the prop streets had some very lucky beats. Um, but a lot of right beats, you know, we're like, we won a lot of props by like 30, 40 yards, which always feels good. So, um, yeah, it's good crushing those streets, um, sides and total streets going well for, for me as well, you know, here and there with, I basically bet everything

we talk about in the show and, you know, going well. So, you know, it's, it's been a lot of fun so far. Always feels good when you're up on top, right? show and, you know, going well. So, you know, it's been a lot of fun so far. Always feels good when you're up on top, right? It feels like you're untouchable no matter what you're doing. I saw you roll into a snow parlay last night and then the Mac. Did you see that? I won $2,700 on a $150 Mac six leg all under parlay because someone tweeted out that there was like an unbelievable amount of snow. And like, so I was like walking out of the gym, like I'm not even

paying attention. I don't know a single player on either team. And so I'm just like, all right, well, you know, why not? Like I'll just bet every single Pat, both quarterback unders and every single receiver under listed. So I bet every single receiver under listed and it stopped snowing literally the moment the game started and was the field was totally cleared and it still hit anyways i mean i'm just i'm running unbelievably pure right now yeah that's something right there uh that's good good on you i saw this morning i wanted to get you know to be annoyed at you and like give me a heads up man but uh i'll let you off based on the story there it's like literally five minutes before the game started i didn't get prize pick shit in.

I literally was like, Caesars has bumped it all. And then I just went off and went for like 17 to one parlay or whatever. Love to see it. Good job. Nice hit there. Clark, what's going on, buddy? Week nine, grind continues. How are we doing?

Yeah, I'm on a cooler, whatever the opposite of a heater is right now. So trying to trust the process and remind myself like you know i've got several years of doing this and i'm uh you know a little bit gun shy just because there's there's certain teams you start to question whether or not like do you know am i missing something about this team and so probably a lighter week for me but but one that i'm hoping to kind of just you know if i could just squeeze out a small profit get back on track that'd be that's the goal yeah i mean look transparency this time last year i was down i wasn, I was negative at this point last year. I think Connor, you were too, or close. Like it's not where we're at right now, but it happens. We bounced back.

We had a positive year. You know, you had, I think a couple of these highs and lows last year, you finished up comfortably on the year. It's just how it goes. It stinks when you're in it. You know, that's why we talk about managing your units and your bankroll very carefully so that you aren't overextending yourself when things are going well, because there is an inevitable bounce back. You can have a good read on a game and lose the bet. It happens all the time. I don't feel very often where I'm sitting on Sunday night kind of reviewing what went right and what went wrong i'm like i don't i think i misread this um it happens at least in what i'm doing a prop wise you know sides and totals maybe you can feel a little bit different but like sometimes on the

prop side i'm just like well yeah that like that's gonna happen variance happens you know made it better on a monday night game i love that bet i make that bet if that game's being played again tomorrow well all of us i need a cornerback to get tackles, and the Raiders completed four passes to their wide receivers. That bet's going to lose every single time. But if you tell me ahead of time that the Raiders are only going to complete four passes to their wide receivers, I'm making some very different bets, right? So we don't have the advantage of foresight here.

It just happens. Ride it out. Again, I love your process. I think it's unique in the space and I'm excited to be a part of riding the wave back up and we'll get it started here in week nine. Just a very, very interesting, very interesting week here. Again, reminder to folks,

three of us are going to be here every Wednesday, 4 p.m. Eastern on our 4 for 4 Bets YouTube channel. Should be able to find the podcast every Wednesday evening. Subscribe to both. See them as a show. This is free content from us. us supporting it goes a long way in helping us continue to bring the very best content and tools in the industry uh take a second click subscribe click a like thumbs up all those things comments uh goes a long way in helping us if you're hanging out with us on youtube comment let us know what your favorite look here on the board is sides and

total wise for week nine. We'll be back on Friday as always, as well on the four for four bets, YouTube channel at 3. P.M. Eastern Connor, myself and John high slop from odds jam to talk props. Have a lot of fun,

a lot of success on that show. Again, that's why you subscribe. You don't miss an episode. Great time to scoop up the betting subscription. If you somehow missed our Halloween sale, that's a bummer. Insane deal that I think is just way too cheap, to be honest. But we get, I think,

consulted in that conversation, but not really. We don't have a say. It's basically like, hey, we're going to do this. And hopefully you're here maybe for the first time because you found the deal on Twitter and you're like, hey, these guys have a show as well. We'll check it out. Appreciate you hanging out with us for the first time. But if you haven't, great time to still scoop up the betting sub. The betting sub gets access to everything. So even if you're still playing DFS, you're playing your season long league, you want all the articles, tools, rankings, projections, all that stuff. The betting sub gets all of it. And then you get access to the discord, which is where all of our official plays,

the three of us all push those out through a discord, great community. We're betting NBA extensively now to Kevin O'Brien off to a great start. I think three or four and Oh, last night they're firing bets in there today. Very, very active discord. If you play in any of the pick them sites, prize picks, underdog vivid picks.

We have plays channels discussions there as well. We have plenty of people in the discord that aren't in legal states that are, you using some of the stuff to you know pick off some of the pick'em games as well so use our promo code youtube it's gonna get you 25 off it's already discounted promo code gets you another 25 on top of that so a great deal four four four dot com slash plans all right interesting slated games guys there are uh i somewhere today, depending on like some of the stuff we have, what goes on in Arizona or something like that, like up to like nine backup quarterbacks as we record here on a Wednesday afternoon.

There's a lot of uncertainty in those matchups. And that, if you don't know who the quarterback is, some of those are still pending. It makes it pretty hard to handicap that game. So we're going to skip a lot of those. We happen to have four fantastic games a friend of the show uh sam hoppin he does like a like an aggregate power rankings where he pulls from a lot of the reputable sites out there and makes his own power rankings now we have three we look like the top

11 again arbitrary but uh three teams in that top 11 on a buy this week. San Francisco, Detroit, Jacksonville. The other eight teams are basically all head-to-head. So we're going to talk about those four games because they're all great. If we have any thoughts on the end, we'll shoot it to the guys and let them fire off any other thoughts they have in terms of sides and totals for the rest of the board. But we'll get started with our Germany game.

First of two in Germany. We have a less exciting colts patriots matchup uh ahead of us next week in germany but miami and kansas city are in frankfurt this is kansas city minus one and a half i believe across the board here i shut my out screen you guys can tell me if it's different i think that's correct 50 and a half is the total as well obviously a massively intriguing matchup chiefs looking to bounce back disappointing loss in denver in the division Things get wonky, and then obviously Mahomes popped up on the injury report over the weekend with the case of the flu. Obviously, he was not

100% there. This one's going to be great. You get the whole Tyreek revenge narrative here, Clark, as well. I'll let you get started with Dolphins Chiefs. This is a game I've been excited about all year. Honestly, the Chiefs defense has obviously outperformed expectations this season, but they haven't yet faced an offense like the Dolphins with the amountagnuolo's approach has always been pretty effective against kind of elite quarterback-led teams. You know, like he's really good at getting pressure on pocket passers and really disrupting them out of what they want to do their A game. But the Dolphins' offense is so dynamic and so diverse that I don't think that that is really going to work. I think the Dolphins are going to have some success. I think they're going to be able to, you know, capitalize on wherever there's space in the secondary. The Chiefs have some pretty good cornerbacks, but the Dolphins have ways of mitigating that by, you know,

creating open spaces in the zone. And Tua is so fast that the interior pressure that Chris Jones typically brings, I just don't think it's going to get home. So I think this is a spot where the Dolphins can keep up. I think up. I don't think we need to worry about the Chiefs offense. They had a tough game against Denver, but every good team has tough games like that. And I didn't really see anything on the film that was overly concerning. The Broncos had a good defensive game plan and obviously Patrick Mahomes may not have been a hundred percent, but I think he'll be back for this one. This is a game where I think both teams are going to have a hard time pulling away from the other team because both offenses,

when kind of pushed with their backs against the wall, play really well. Like the one thing that's really impressive about the Dolphins is their third down conversion rates, even in difficult third down spots, like Tua has been delivering the ball in tight windows in those situations past the line of scrimmage, which is really the key to an offense that's playing from behind. So even though they got blown out by

Buffalo and Philadelphia, I think this is a spot where this should go down to the wire. And I think there's extra value on the teaser leg with the Dolphins getting it up above seven or eight. I mean, I think the line came down from two and a half to one and a half today. I still like it at plus seven and a half just because this is a game that I don't see either team pulling away, but I don't want to bet on the dolphins on the money line just because that requires Patrick Mahomes to fail to deliver in the clutch in a close game. And that's not a situation I ever want to find myself in with my bet.

So for me, it's, it's lean dolphins, but I'd rather play the teaser than the side in this one. Connor Clark touched on it real quick there. This is basically Miami's third chance to step up in class. We've, and look, this is kind of a increasingly prevalent narrative that they basically beat up on bottom feeders.

They can't, or at least haven't yet been able to hang with the upper echelon teams. Now I think it's an inarguable fact as of now. I sort of think it's a nonsense in terms of how it pertains to who the Dolphins truly are as a team or where they're going to be at the end of the year. It gets harder and harder to defend that if they can't be competitive here. Again, they're getting healthy. I think there's some really encouraging things going on in Miami too.

Like Jalen Phillips looks to be back to who we thought he was going to be earlier in the season, full strength, looking really good. Tough challenge here against Patrick Mahomes, who just doesn't get pressured a lot. Jalen Ramsey came back last week, made an immediate impact. Javon Holland's going to be back here. He cleared concussion protocol after missing last week. And even Teron Armstead is traveling to Germany here too. So kind of good news going on there in Miami.

This one's going to be fun what are your thoughts yeah i think you hit on most of the key points here one interesting thing i think it's a lot of this is going to depend on pressure and clark said it you know i think mentioned it there that maybe the interior pressure won't get home but i think that it's one of the keys in this game because under pressure too we're talking about lowest completion rate 37.4 percent below his regular completion rate when kept clean. It's basically only ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo in terms of splits of like kept clean versus pressure.

We saw that in the Philadelphia game and crumble a little bit. We saw that in the Buffalo game at certain times. And either that's kind of a big deal here. He's also averaging 3.7 fewer yards per attempt when pressured compared to a clean pocket. And so I think that that's kind of interesting when we consider this game as a whole, because the Chiefs defense has, like, I think certainly outplayed their billing. And this is, on the other hand,

the toughest test that they've faced by far. You know, they've played well against Detroit. They played well against Jacksonville, played well against the Chargers. But I think that this Miami offense is on another level than those teams right now. And so when we factor all of that in, like, it's almost like a strength on strength,

but neither of them are proven. And that's not something that I'd particularly like to bet into. I feel like I need to have a strong angle or some kind of case of like, okay, well, they played well against this type of defense here, and we can project that very easily. So I think that they'll probably still have success, but I don't feel super confident in it. And then on the other side here, the Dolphins defense, again,

getting way healthier. They've played against three good offenses so far. They've allowed 34, 48, and 31 points in those games. Kansas City's offense hasn't played particularly well or up to their standards as of late, but I think that's more of a blip than something we'll see consistently. I mean, basically every year we see like one or two games where Mahomes and Chiefs offense just like, doesn't really look that good.

And then it's literally a non-issue right after that. So yeah, I think for me, it's kind of a stay away. Like I'm just kind of excited to watch the game because I don't have a strong lean. I think we took some look at action on Kansas City, but I don't feel awesome about it. So yeah, I really don't know, honestly, in terms of the take. This is probably the game that I have like like, the least skin in the game on among the ones we're talking about here. Yeah, I mean, it is hard.

There was some, you know, interesting look-ahead action there. But, yeah, I want to buy into Miami. I do think Miami is a team that is better than just a team that's going to beat up on, you know, a good, bad team. Not even a good, bad team, but just a team that's going to pick off of really bad teams. I do think that they're better than that. Part of the defense has been oftentimes in these matchups when we talk about the Bills game

and who the Bills were at the time, the Philadelphia game. The Miami defense was clearly the worst unit on the field. That might be the case again, but I do feel like that unit in general is getting significantly better, Clark. So I feel like we're kind of turning in the right direction um i worry a little bit about your teaser take though just because of again like we talked about before i think you like it when it gets a little bit higher in terms of like the you know over under i makes me a little bit nervous in terms

of like the you know just the variability of the game in terms of it being a high scoring contest yeah i i like high totals when it's when you're taking the two and a half or the one and a half up past the seven or the eight. I don't like it as much bringing it down. That makes sense. The upwards Wong, because what a high total indicates is that both offenses are able to score and and when the game flow is such that a team has a big lead, that really favors the offense or it favors the other team's offense because you get more aggressive and all that kind of stuff. So I like either of these teams in comeback mode.

I like either of these teams playing from behind it. It just, it's going to be a difficult game to put the other team away and the chiefs don't run the ball particularly well. So if they're in the second half and you know, they're trying to run the clock out, they're just not at their best when they're doing that I also like I'm not overly concerned about the Chiefs offense you know I say this every week but it's week nine and if they don't figure out their receivers if they don't get

in a position where Mahomes knows who he can trust downfield as we approach the playoffs I do start to get concerned about the Chiefs it's kind of like they've got time to figure it out but last week it wasn't figured out you know and that was week eight you know week nine going against a healthier secondary probably uh against miami if they don't figure it out here i think it is start to time to start worrying about what the chiefs are going to look like uh you know down the stretch they need to figure it out at some point just get rashid rice in the field more connor right like yeah what the hell i mean he hasn't cleared a 60 route rate the entire season this man should be playing every snap we're rolling like bums like literally mbs and sky more scrubs like get him off the field um i also do think want to add that i think that there's a pretty big advantage here

for miami in the running game offensively against the chiefs run defense they just haven't played all that well like 27th and rushing success rate. They've gotten, you know, kind of gashed in the ground the last two weeks, I think 31st and run DPA. So like, I think there's a path here where maybe it's not that the dolphins go run heavy, but they might use kind of the run to like offset, uh, you know, any pressure if they really think that that's an issue. So, um, you know, I think there's multiple ways here that they get there offensively. So that could be something worth watching as well. And the Chiefs getting thin at linebacker.

Obviously, Nick Bolton, as mentioned here in the chat by Adam, he gets his big Nick Bolton fan here. I miss him out for the year. Willie Gay, one of their other linebackers, hurt his tailbone. And it seems like they're debating whether or not Willie Gay goes on IR or not. So that sounds like Willie Gay probably not active in this game either. So they're getting pretty thin in the middle of the field. And we saw on Monday Night Football with the Lions and Raiders,

what happens when you lose all your linebackers? Because the Raiders lost to their linebackers during that game. And the Lions were just like, okay, we'll get six yards in every run. It was ridiculous. So that is definitely something to look out for. Yeah. And they were playing without Diablo already. and then they lost a couple in-game. So yeah, it starts to be an issue. Before we move on real quick, got a little

mid-season update on our Coach of the Year award bet. Do you think that I get Sirianni'd again? So we released Mike McDaniel 22- one to win coach of the year. He's plus two 75 right now in draft Kings, Dan Campbell's plus 200 next closes Robert Sala plus 600 to Miko Ryan's 10 to one. What are, what's like the gauge here? I mean, any, I feel pretty good about it. If he wins like one or two big games, like all that's for is one or two big wins. I think McDaniel probably gets there, especially if they win the division, but I don't know. Any, any thoughts on this market? I know I'm putting you guys on the spot.

This is not part of the show sheet. So, yeah, I mean, I mean, I have it too. So last year, the Sirianni thing was interesting. Cause I took, you know, I went against you in a way. I know. I mean, obviously I like it. Do they need to, they have to win the division. Do they have to be the one seed? I don't know if they have to be the one seed, right?

I don't think so. Right. Cause this Andy Reid is now in Belichick territory. We're like, it doesn't matter. You just, you know, Belichick, no matter what he did for a handful of years was just never winning coach of the year. They could be, you know, 15 and one back in the day. They played 16 games.

Like Andy Reid is, you know, they can, Chiefs can be the one seed that's based on expectations we've talked about it like part of the play is exceeding expectations to a degree and you know Miami being the two seed winning the AFC at three to one you know that would be I think exceeding expectations and again like people kind of like Mike McDaniel did you see him in the uh walking into the press conference in Germany I mean that's fantastic stuff like stuff. Like he's, you know, there is a narrative piece, and that was part of my dayball handicap as well. It was like, hey, he's likable. He's in New York, big media. Like all those things kind of matter.

So, yeah, I mean, I like it. I don't think there's a good hedge currently. D'Amico Ryans you could sell me on if the Jags weren't winning football games because then I'd be interested in maybe the Texans back during that division. You know, Jacksonville continues to kind of pull away, but that's all I got.

Clark, what do you think? Yeah. I mean, they'll need to probably win this game and then beat Buffalo. I think that's, that's the path. And then when,

and when the division, he's a guy that people are going to want to reward. And, and the difference between Andy Reed and him is that when the chiefs win, it's like, well, it's my homes. And when the dolphins win, it's it's like well two is to it because of mcdaniel right so it's and hill and all that kind of stuff so the narrative is there for for him to win

definitely because again like shanahan might have been in the mix would probably have been a threat for the same reasons that clark's talking about right because like the purdy stuff gets tied up into the shanahan stuff and you want to find a way to reward shanahan for that but now they're on a little bit of a slide not really worried about the niners but they're on a little bit of a slide and all of a sudden his odds shift so um you know maybe that's the the name to keep an eye on is you know if the niners just kind of got this out of their system and all of a sudden they roll and get back to who they we thought they were maybe maybe that's a name to watch, but yeah, good point. I love talking to the awards markets.

They're interesting. Yeah, it's a quick little interlude. So back to our regularly scheduled programming. Back with another great football game. Seattle is heading east. They are on the road in Baltimore over on FanDuel. This is 5.5, 42.5 is the total. There are six out there, sixes some shops 43s 43s and a half

on the board in terms of the total so shop around if you have a lean here coming into the season I was very bullish on both of these offenses but it's really been the outstanding play on the defensive side of the ball that I think is kind of spearheaded some of the early season success for these teams Seattle thought they'd be okay but I think there's still some upside to this unit. We haven't really seen it yet. They've been really bad on third down, really bad in the red zone, which I don't think aligns with some of their other metrics.

Again, kind of a small sample in terms of what they've had there. I think poaching Leonard Williams from the Giants before the trade deadline was an excellent move for Seattle, especially with some of the injuries they've had up front. now the knock against them especially when you're kind of looking at their defensive metrics is they've played a fairly soft slate of quarterbacks um thus far and i think that that's probably pretty fair i'd already taken my l here i continue to take my l on my preseason concerns around this ravens defense um and look they have not been healthy and that was part of it.

I just thought they were really thin in the back half and up front. And if they had injuries, it was going to be really tough for them to not get exposed. And they've held up. Massive kudos to Mike McDonald, who has really earned himself a head coaching job this off season if he's interested. Maybe if he could survive some of this Michiganigan coaching stuff too since he was the dc there for a little bit and seemed to have that uh that little dude in his ear telling him what the plays were but hey that's a different show uh i don't want to you know rile up all the uh lions and michigan fans here but uh they lead

the league in points per drive they're second to cleveland in yards per drive epa per play success right they've been really good on the offense has kind of you know started to find a little bit of a gear here kind of let you get started started with Seahawks and Ravens. Yeah. It might become like my, you know, flag plant team. I know we talked about it last week on the show, 40 to one, uh, scooped a little bit of that. I mean, basically no closing line value at this point, we're looking at 30, 35 to one. So it's not, you know, no victory laps yet, but, uh, they're also getting back, uh, one of their offensive linemen, Phil Haynes. I think that's kind of an underrated storyline. Their offensive line has been a little bit banged up.

And their defense, I mean, they've played against a super soft straight of the schedule. Since week four, they got everyone back. They got Tariq Woolen, Devin Witherspoon, Jamal Adams started playing together. First in EPA per dropback, fifth in passing success rate, second in explosive pass rate. Obviously, the big asterisk, they played against Arizona, the Giants, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. So that's the big thing.isk they played against arizona the giant cincinnati and cleveland um so that's the big thing but they've delivered in those spots so you know like that for the most part that's what matters um and so but i think this a lot of the same can be said for baltimore i mean they played what detroit and they played awesome against detroit but like they played no one else otherwise like their schedule is basically

going garbage too so i think some of this argument goes both ways. I want to keep buying on Seattle here. So I took a little bit of plus six. I don't think I'd put the plus five and a half. And I thought it would be closer to like plus four and a half, plus four, to be honest. So I thought that there was a little bit of value here on the Seattle side. I don't really have too many handicaps in terms of like tendencies and like what's going to happen specifically here, because the Seattle team has been changing a little bit and a little bit more, I guess, you know, variant, uh, since their new guys came back and like willing to blitz at certain times and not at others. So, um, I think that I'm, it's just like kind of like a, a lean where I sprinkled a little bit on Seattle here and want to keep buying them. Clark, I don't want

to speak for you. You were trying to sell out of your Seattle ticket last week. So I have a feel of where your lean is here, but I'll give you the floor on Seahawks and Ravens. I think it's possible that both teams are overrated because of their, like you were saying, their schedule. But they've also been playing really well. And that's, you know, only after only eight weeks, it's tough to parse out, you know, what is just a really, really good team

taking advantage of bad matchups or what is a not quite as good team just looking really good team taking advantage of bad matchups or what is a not, not quite as good team, just looking really good against bad teams. You know, since week three, the Seahawks have the number two defense and EPA per play and the Ravens have the number one defense and EPA per play. So this is going to be a really tough fought game. I think part of that is matchups. Part of that is just, you know, like you said, guys got healthy. The secondary got healthy in Seattle. Now they added Leonard Williams to that front. Granted they lost Nwosu, but this is a defensive front that I, that I do think can get pressure. And we've seen a drastic difference in how this Ravens

offense operates based on whether or not Lamar Jackson's under pressure. And that's not just this year. That's throughout his career. He, when he can sit back in the pocket and has time to operate, he's been lethal throughout his career. And, this year with a much more sophisticated passing game and better weapons. But when he gets pressured, he still struggles with it. He struggles to make the right decisions. Sometimes he tries to escape and then he finds himself on the run and kind of throwing it away. He takes a lot of sacks in those situations um i think the the lack of pressure today has really kind of um inflated perception of this ravens offense so you know laying five and a half laying six is is a tough thing for me to do with an offense like this against a good defense um but i haven't bet it because i i don't know that the seahawks defense is that good right and yet i'm still kind of you know analyzing the film analyzing my numbers really trying to come to ground on this on this game. But one thing I want to watch for is, you know, early in the game, are the Seahawks getting pressure? You know, that's kind of the thing

that I think will decide this game. And five and a half is such a weird line. It's asking for betters to take a strong position saying like, you know, please push this up to six or please push this down to four. And so far, there's been a little bit of support for Baltimore, you know, at some of the sharper books, but, but nothing really decisive. And I expect that will be a decisive move. I don't think this closes five and a half. I think that I just don't know what that move is. Honestly, like I'm kind of split on this game. I'm really excited to watch it. But my, my thoughts on the Seahawks and the ravens have been improving every week um and that will probably continue especially for the team that wins this one this is what uh bill simmons if you're familiar with you know the podcast og um you're not a great gambling podcast or great listen you know i'm a

boston guy so i'm a simmons apologist. But they always dub this the Vegas zone, basically. We're like, this is like Vegas throwing their hands at me like, you tell us where this should go. We know it shouldn't be three, three and a half. It's not six. Kind of, you know, let you, you know, move this around for us. It's kind of we're in the Vegas zone. Yeah.

The Seahawks get, or at least the way that I think they're going to be constructed now with Williams and Draymond Jones, they're going to get pressure in an unorthodox way, too. It's going to be through the middle of the line. You know, they don't have great edge rushers. They brought Frank Clark back, losing a little bit over the season. Like, I feel like, you know, and there's, that's, I think, sometimes problematic for quarterbacks, too, because the first thing you see, it's coming right down the middle.

So, if that ends up working for them with this move, I think we'll get a sense of it, like you're saying, Clark, pretty early in this game. If they're able to collapse the middle of the pocket here on Lamar, that could be something to watch for in terms of like a live betting opportunity. Touched on the red zone stuff. And again, it's a small sample size, but Seattle's got to figure it out if they're going to be legit or if we think they're going to be who they are. And the good news for Seattle, no defenses faced fewer red zone trips than they have

this season, just 16 on the season. So that's great. They're keeping teams out of the red zone. But their 30th in conversion rate allowed. 11 of those 16 trips is a not so nice 69% as resulted in a touchdown. So on the opposite side, no offense is taking more drives into the red zone this season than baltimore with 34 and they've converted at the third highest clip in the league almost 68 so that's really what it comes down to seattle has got to keep them out of

the red zone and when they do they got to turn it up hopefully use some of these new bodies on the new secondary that's just kind of healthy for the first time here for a little bit. It starts to kind of regulate these numbers and have them match up. So, you know, if they're getting into the red zone and forcing a lot of field goals, then I think they're going to be in this game. If those are converting into, I think it's a handicap for all football games. If those are converting into touchdowns, it's going to be a long day for Seattle. So, all right, let's keep the train moving here. Dallas on the road in Philly.

Philly minus three on FanDuel. 46 is the total. It's pretty much painted across the board there. Did not get a Dak versus Hertz matchup last year. We had Cooper Rush in for Dak in the week six matchup between these two teams. Then they played on Christmas Eve, and it was Gardner Minshew for Philly. So I'm really looking forward to this one, Clark. We didn't get this one.

You know, kind of a, Hey, Dallas just blew someone out. Philly just barely won. You know, it was a little bit of Dallas love, not showing the market necessarily, but just a sentiment here. I think it's a little bit more pro Dallas than it would have been maybe say a week ago. Yeah, definitely. We haven't, we've been waiting for this matchup for two years, right? The healthy Eagles against the healthy Cowboys. And we finally get it.

The Eagles last year faced a really easy schedule of opposing defenses and really capitalized against it. And this year has kind of been the same, you know, so in terms of EPA per play, uh, on defense, the best defense they faced with the jets at ninth, and they lost that game 20 to 14 with three picks. Uh, every other team has been, uh, 15th, 20th, 23rd, 28th, 22nd, or 12th, which was the Vikings. So they really haven't faced a defense of the quality that Dallas brings to the table. And I have my concerns about, you know,

Hurts' mobility. Like he just looks a step slow out there with his knee injury. I have some concerns about, you know, the way that Dallas plays defense. They want to like leave typically four guys back, play quarters coverage or whatever, and then get pressure with their front seven. Um, and if they can bracket AJ Brown and, and kind of take away those deep shots, if they can push Devonta Smith

towards the sideline, it's going to be really difficult for Jalen Hurts to consistently make plays. And with the way that they play offense, it's, it's, you know, a lot of third down on shorts and a lot of converting those third down and shorts because they win the offensive line battle, whether it's running, you know, brotherly shove, tush, push, whatever, or just short outs, you know, for three, five yards, Dallas got it. They're able to consistently do that. And I worry about them going up against a stepping step up in class and

defense because those marginal third down conversions, if those stop working can really, really come to a halt with the offense. But the problem is I'm not sure that the Cowboys are that good of a team yet. I know that they've looked impressive in some of their games, but even against the Rams last week, they blew them out. But I was watching that game live and started with a sack, a run for four yards and a sack on third down that was taken off the board by a bogus penalty. They get another first another first down another sack they ended up turning that drive into a touchdown which was fine uh rams come back almost score touchdown 10 10 3 and it was pick six stafford on just a you know a miscommunication between him and cup 17 3 and then they get a blocked

punt for a safety 19 3 um and then they returned that safety punt to the 13-yard line and scored a 13-yard touchdown, 26-3. And it was like, whoa, I guess the Cowboys won this game. They're not really doing much. And it was kind of like the Giants game. So this is a Cowboys team that really can put it together, but has also looked really clunky at times. Like against the Cardinals,

granted they had a bunch of offensive linemen missing. Against the Chargers, they didn't look all that impressive. And so as much as I'd love to back the Cowboys here, they have to be a really good team to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia. And that's kind of something that I'm wrestling with. I definitely lean Cowboys plus three because I think once you're getting out at the field goal and capturing all of the tight games plus pushing on a Cowboys lost by three, I think that's the side that I lean.

But I've also been lower on the Eagles consistently throughout the year than the market. And so some things are causing me to pause in terms of, what am I missing? What is it that the market is capturing that I'm not? And I recognize the strength of the market and have to kind of accommodate that. So I'm not decided whether or not I'm playing it,

but definitely lean towards the Cowboys in this one. I like that breakdown. It's good. Connor, what are your thoughts on this one? It's interesting because Dallas Cowboys, like basically their metrics, I have taken and just thrown out the window because like,

I just like, don't think there's any value in basically anything they've done overall because they're neutral game script numbers it's just like littered with you know metrics they're between like you know eighth and like 22nd in like epa run d epa like everything is just like doesn't matter what it is it's like average or below average you know basically everything but should we not count that they're blowing out teams you know i mean because every single right so like they're five and two but they played in just one game win or lose with the final margin of 10 or fewer points. Their two losses came by

32 and 12. Their five wins have come by 40, 20, 35, three, and then 23. So it's like, how much do we weigh all this? I'm personally really struggling with it. Usually there's one or two teams every year where I'm like, yeah, I just don't have a good read on this team. Last few years, it's been like the Titans and the Raiders. I bet against them and always lose. This year, it's kind of the Cowboys because I don't think that their running offense hasn't been all that particularly efficient, no matter the game script. Now they're running into a tough running defense in Philadelphia who hasn't been playing as well as of late, but I think that's a lot of it has to do with not being fully healthy. I think Jalen Carter practiced a full day today should be fully healthy in this spot. But now they like that puts a lot of pressure on Dak. And I just don't know, given what their offense can has been doing right now, like, is that sustainable to rely on Dak to

like, you know, really carry this team. I think CD lamb could have a big day because he's moved it in the middle a lot. And that's kind of, you know, hypothetically the Eagles like weak spot in their defense essentially is like over the middle. And so that kind of interests me there. But then on the other side of the ball, like this Eagles offense, I think should have some success running the ball because we've seen the Cowboys struggle at certain times against the run, but they've also been dominant against the run at other times. So I think the Philadelphia is more like more physical than most of the teams that they've played. And I think that some of the runs that we saw from Arizona against them and kind of like some of the traps that they were running

was kind of interesting and could be something that Philly leverages here with DeAndre Swift, like runs out of the shotgun and things of that sort instead of less traditional runs. So I really don't know. I would lean towards the under in this game just because I don't have a particularly good feel for either team scoring a bunch. It's literally like 46, 46 and a half. But the Cowboys are just a really, really tough team for me right now yeah i'm torn too because so you make a

good point because i do think it falls on dac a lot because i do think like tony pollard thing just isn't happening uh so well like they no matter the game script as you mentioned becomes a lot of pressure on dac to get it done so philly again like i don't want to make too much of a game against the commanders by defense that That is, we should not be, you know, making any judgments off of, but you know, they, they scored 38 last week. They, they fumbled twice at like the five or the one even. So they're really close to hanging like 52 on the road in the division against the team. It seems to like play them really tight and have their number. What's the perception of the Eagles if they don't fumble one of their like brotherly shoves and i think it was a gain

well fumble like that's you know again 52 on the road in the division even against the commanders it's a pretty strong statement in the nfl to do that no matter who the defense is we're really close to philly doing that last week so um i don't know i just feel like they're maybe finding their legs offensively after a little bit of a slow start with new coordinator you know jalen hurts not being great not throwing the ball to aj brown for the first couple of games very much that seems to like have been a pretty important like fulcrum point to this the success of their season like hey let's just chuck the ball to aj brown a ton uh and he's just been an absolute alpha. So I just worry about the

perception of maybe what that would do to this game a little bit. So I don't have a great feel for it. I would probably lean over, to be honest, to go against Connor a little bit, or at least maybe have interest in the Philly team total. But at that point, wouldn't I just back Philly? So that's kind of my concern there too. So I'm at a loss, but that's probably my lean would be Philly in this spot, or at least the Philly being successful offensively. of my my concern there too so um i'm at a loss but that's probably my lean would be philly uh in this spot or at least the philly you know being successful offensively silva you know got out of his uh you know whatever cave and was able to uh you know put together some some stuff for his matchups article there and and compared tony pollard to lamar miller i thought

that was just like the most accurate comparison I've seen ever because Lamar Miller came, was like super efficient and was really good on limited touches and then gets into a full-time role and just doesn't have the juice anymore. Like it just being the, getting that many touches consistently over the course of the season. Like it just, it clearly like he doesn't have the juice that he had before.

And so maybe I'm, there are a lot of other factors you know all of its line isn't that good like you know he's coming off he's coming off of a pretty major injury too yeah yeah right there's a surgery but i mean that just is what it is like he just he's not there right now so maybe he's there next year maybe he can be better but right now he's lamar miller 2.0 chase edonds? I don't know. I don't know. We'll see. You're in on Tony Pollard?

I don't know. I think he's kind of just like a massive jag. All the analytics say he's a jag right now. Yeah, maybe. If it's true, this is a problem. Credit to Dak. He's been playing really good football. He looked good last week.

I just do think there's a a lot of weight on him in this matchup if tony pollard continues to to jag um that's that's problematic for for deck all right i'm excited to talk about this one i uh this has been an interesting matchup we've seen a lot we got it uh you know didn't get the matchup we were supposed to last year unfortunately thankfully demar Hamlin is okay. But Buffalo back in Cincinnati. Cincinnati, this one's moved a little bit. Again, I shut my odd screen just before we started.

I know there's a little bit of Josh Allen didn't practice news, and maybe this has fluctuated a little bit. Not too long ago, this was Cincinnati minus one and a half. 48 and a half was the total. There were twos. Total had moved out to 49 in some spots. Just interested to see if this is fluctuating, probably right around there.

I just don't think we get back to three, though this was two and a half in some spots earlier in the day. Yeah, I'm going to give you the floor, Clark. This is, you know, you've not been very pro Joe Burrow in the time that I've known you. And, you know, I know you're often pro B're often pro Bills as well, my Super Bowl team. But just interested to get your thoughts on this matchup, the Bills and Bengals, after what we saw last week with Joe Burrow.

Yeah, the Bengals are another team that I think my numbers seem to underrate relative to the market. It's difficult, right? Because they look really good against the 49ers like legitimately really good Joe Burrow was making plays look like himself out there and and if if the first half of the season was really just Joe Burrow you know getting used to his mobility getting that strength back getting that confidence back getting that timing back with his receivers then I think it is right to kind of throw out some of that data. But the Bengals defense is materially worse than it's been in years past. And I'm not one to say, well, we got one game of Joe Burrow looking great.

So I guess Joe Burrow is back to being an elite quarterback. I'm much more hesitant. Now, the Bills defense is really banged up, which doesn't help. So Joe Burrow will have some success here. But I thought that the market move was a little bit dramatic. It got all the way up to plus three for the Bills, which I grabbed. I was like, okay, I haven't figured out what I think about this game, but I'm grabbing that plus three because that's ridiculous.

And sure enough, it's been bet back down to two, one and a half, which I think is much more appropriate. Under the three, it's a tight game. My numbers like the Bills, but there is the element that the Bengals have really owned the Bills uh and like in the playoff game they were the clearly right side as five and a half point underdogs from the get-go they just dominated them in every facet of the game um and and I don't think that you know because two teams played each other once and we got a certain result that that result's going to happen every time but I do think that there are some

schematic things that the Bengals really do well, that the Bills just have failed to stop time and again. Even in the game that didn't finish when Damar Hamlin got hurt, the Bengals came out firing in that game, and it was a quarter and a half or whatever it was of domination by the Bengals. So I don't think it's just the one data point in the playoff game. I think it's a consistent thing. What the Bengals

do is they make consistently positive gains where Joe Burrow is putting the ball in a place where receivers can catch it and lean forward or run forward for a couple more yards. And it just consistently picks up yards. And the Bills defense is like, you know, we're going to play this zone. We're going to, you know, try to get pressure on the front four and maybe play a little softer on the receivers. And so if you're able to do that, you can really move the ball against the bills. And so that, that would be kind of my concern about getting involved under the three, but, but in terms of, you know, this should be a great game on Sunday night football. I'm really, really excited to watch it. I would bet either team at plus three. Um, cause I, I just think

it's another one of those tight games. Um, but I haven't really come to ground on whether or not I would bet bills money. I don't have to decide now because I got in at plus three, but, but it's one of those things that I'd be wrestling with in terms of, you know, do I want to take the bills money line plus one and a half, or just let it go and just enjoy the football game. It's, it's kind of borderline for me. And I think, I think staying away at that, at that small number is probably the right call. I think getting the three is pretty important. So I think, you know, good job doing that. Cause I think you're, you're probably right. I think the right move would be taking any of them,

either the teams plus three. Here's my issue though, is we haven't had the bills. Well, we haven't seen them face in the league offense since they lost Matt Milano, since they lost a Kwan Jones, they lost Davis white back in like week five. You look at it, they're actually faced three of the worst offenses in the league in terms of points per drive. Giants, 32nd. Patriots, 31st. Buccaneers, 24th.

Bottom teams. In that time frame, the Bills are 29th defensively in EPA per play. That is a problem. I still think we're getting the market shading the Bills a little bit, especially defensively, to who we thought they were coming into the season and who they were early in the season. That is not the team. Again, you're losing basically your best player at all three levels is a problem.

And they just haven't really had to pay the Piper for that yet. And I think that comes this week. Connor, what are your thoughts? Yeah, I played the over 48 and a half. I think it's 49 and a half. I think you can play team total overs if you have a certain lean on the game. I think both those are fine because I think Clark's point about the Bengals defense not being very good is completely true. And that Josh Allen's just a guy who's able to basically keep his team in the game no matter what.

I think Joe Burrow has been that guy, but he's, you know, again, like the injury question makes me question that. We saw them, you know, lose some pretty bad games at certain points this season already, just because I think his injury was not able to, you know, let him do everything that he wants to do. But you hit the nail on that. I think with the splits with the bills defense, that's my biggest take here is that they're not as good. I mean, the, the Patriots handled them and they were like borderline,

like left for dead offense. And the Jaguars, if you guys remember that game, like the Jags, I believe through a pick in the end zone. And there was multiple times where they just couldn't put it, punch it in. They kicked a bunch of field goals. They still 25 points they like right they could have scored 40 and i don't

think anyone would have batted an eye based on how that game went so i i think that that's pretty interesting and worth noting and then obviously the bengals coming off of an awesome performance against the the uh niners here i think it's all just like trending up and then the bills offense though i thought looked pretty good without Dawson Knox. It kind of went more of like a hurry up 11 personnel fully. We're like putting late Gabe Davis in the slot a little bit more, like getting Dalton Kincaid involved a bunch. Like they're,

I don't know, kind of finding their stride in some ways, I think at least what I saw visually. So it may not have fully translated, but I thought that there were some really, really encouraging points there. So I like the over in this spot. Again, I think I'm more confident in Cincinnati's offense having success here.

So if I had to make a bet right now, it'd probably be Cincinnati team total. But I think that the over or the Bengals are probably fine here as well. Yeah, game over is probably with good luck. And the number you got was fantastic. Because I do agree. Like, we're, you know, kind of besmirching the Bills defense. But I don't have really any questions still about, like, 17 and blue is on the field for half the game. Like, I still have a lot of faith in what the Bills can do. So, it can be a spot to kind of feed the defenses. So, I don't want, like, and I, look, I'm the opposite side of Clark on some of this this stuff in terms of joe burrow um i am like a burrow apologist a little bit like i am very much i drink the joey b kool-aid for sure i am 100 ready to be like i don't care i think we're going to

timestamp pre and post by bangles for the rest of the season um in terms of like looking at their metrics and all that stuff because i'm going to do what he did, look, it's one of the best defenses in the league, 28 to 32 for 283 yards, three scores, like, you know, 18% completion percentage over expected. They've shifted in a big,

big way and shout out to friend of the show. Ben Solak highlighted this in his article. They were really predictable. They basically were 98, 99% shotgun early in the season because they just couldn't, they wanted to get into things quicker. And that allowed Burrow to do that. They basically were really predictable.

It was dink and dunk. It was let's get the ball out quickly to, just this low ADOT stuff to chase and really couldn't get anything with Tee Higgins. Last week against the Niners, even the first play of the game, under center, play action, absolute dart from Burrow, 77% shotgun rate. So a big shift. And again, like, yeah, sometimes you can run successfully out of the shotgun. They just hadn't been able to because there was really no threat of play action.

They were able to run a little bit more even against san francisco last week burrow extending plays he scrambled six times for 43 yards this is not what we saw early in the season so i'm okay this is not again we just football we deal with small samples i don't want to overreact in a lot of instances to a one game sample kind of okay being like hey this is who we've kind of seen them be for a number of years, and they showed it last week, and it's not who we saw for the whole entire early part of the season. And we had an injury, and we had a data point as to why, and now we saw it a little bit.

So I feel like I think the Bengals are maybe going to be a little bit more, at least offensively, who we thought they were coming into the season. So I'm in on Burrow. I think the over in the game is the right side. And I would take the Bengals under three in this one. I think it's going to be hopefully a great primetime game and kind of put a cap on these great matchups this week. So it's kind of where I'm at here.

They're back in the AFC. I know that Clark's going to absolutely hate this take, but I think that the best bet in the MVP market right now is Joe burrow to win MVP at 20 to one. I just, the, the, the guys at the top are very fragile. So he's not going to do enough to make up for how bad he was in the first half of the year. He's still got nine weeks, eight weeks and 10 games.

I don't know. Something like that. It's enough to get there. If I think the memory is short enough that if he plays very well, the next eight weeks that, you know, it's possible. I mean, i think the whole two mvp thing is tough man i think he's played awesome but that's like i have a really hard time getting there and i love the dolphins and i love toa and i really struggle to get there in terms

of him being the mvp i'd rather have two of them burrow like like on your team or just as MVP? No, just as an MVP ticket. At current market prices? I don't know exactly what market prices are, but I'm still like- It's like Tua is plus 270, I think, maybe, and then Mahomes is plus 300. So, oh, it's okay. Plus 400 Tua, plus 450 Hertz, plus 450 Mahomes, plus 550 Lamar, plus 1400 McCaffrey, plus 1600 Josh Allen, plus 20 and 20 to one Joe Burrow. That's what I'm saying is like, I just feel good about any of those guys.

Give me your take for it. The rule is, no, the rule on MVP markets is as soon as you read a running back, you can just disregard everyone after that. That's fair. Okay, but seriously, any of those guys like you're like oh well that makes sense like lamar josh allen was after running back i mean josh allen and joe burrow are the enticing names in that right what was that let's get back on alan was what 16 16 to 1 yeah 16 oh

yeah i take alan 16 and 1 over everyone else there yeah current prices okay they've got a tough schedule but if they win if they win a division you know this game is a big one to start with they beat the bangles and then go on to win the division beat the dolphins again um i think josh allen's right back in the conversation yeah i do think that there's enough meat in these four games in particular that are going to shift some of these markets right these are the top of the mvp tickets these are coach of the years these are like you know first place in the conference, division winners. These are very much impactful games for this weekend

and basically all the markets. So yeah, that'll be interesting to see where those kind of pop out back on Monday. Yeah, Trevor Lawrence at 20. Yeah, I'll take that over. They would have to play, I don't know. They're winning games, but I don't think he's playing up to his capabilities. That's what I would say.

If Burrow wins MVP, you can clip all these little clips of me saying, I'll take them over to Burrow. Burrow MVP, Seahawks, Super Bowl. It's all going down here, baby. Yeah. All right. Anything else on the board? Like you said, just a, well, I want to talk about something, actually,

and then I'll get your guys' thoughts. I talked to Connor about this briefly the other day, and we still don't have word on what's going on in the Rams quarterback room. Oh, we do though. Oh, do we? Did I break down the show? Well, I mean, Josh Norris said I was listening to the underdog stats film, you know, breakdown.

He said that he was like a little clip is like a 20 second clip here that I was listening to he said that that someone told him that stafford is not going to play for this week and into the buy uh or obviously in the buy and then they were going to re-evaluate things after the buy i'd be stunned if stafford played i mean just personally i mean i like look it's not a fracture like it's your thumb on your throwing hands like look at like they had talked about that when it first happened to fields like oh you might be okay here we are again we have our third you know tyson bajan starts um you know your thumb gripping the football like what are we what are we doing here like what are the rounds i mean i i got an alert that was like they're not putting him on ir it's like if they're considering

ir he's probably not playing this week so we have the Packers do not instill any confidence in us whatsoever, but the Rams with Brett Rippon are going into Green Bay at three. I feel like that should be three and a half everywhere. I feel like it should be high. I just think the Packers are going to be there. When Stafford's confirmed out, I think like that should be three and a half everywhere. I feel like it should be high. I mean, I just think like, I know the, I think it'll get there when Stafford's confirmed out. I think it'll get there. So that's on the board.

That's very interesting to me. I haven't bet yet. I wanted to talk about on the show with you guys today. It is like, it's a three. Did you? Okay. It's three, like minus one 15, minus one 20. I just think that that's a,

I think it's a mistake. Cause I don't think it's Matthew Stafford. Right. Like, I feel like part of it is like really underrating how awesome matthew stafford is and has been this season in terms of what he's been able to do like some of that all 22 stuff post game is like football porn he's been outstanding yeah um and like i know that like puka's been good and cooper cup is is good and they can elevate, but like not that much offensive line is bad. And again,

my defense is starting to show who we thought I thought they were very much coming into the season. So again, I know that we're laying points with Jordan love, but again, like three at home, I think they should be able to run the football Packers. And minus three is a play that I will make now after,

after the show with a little bit of passive stamp of approval from you guys. What else do you like here, Clark? Anything else on the board for you? It's a tough week. I mentioned a teaser like with the Dolphins. I paired it with the Saints. They're currently laying seven and a half at home against Chicago. I actually like the spread at seven and a half.

I mean, I don't love betting seven and a half as a number just because, you know, if it drops down to seven, that's just way more valuable. So it might be worth waiting. But I think this is a kind of, the Saints team is kind of getting together, right? People don't recognize how banged up the Saints have been in terms of not just injuries, but suspensions.

You know, Derek Carr's shoulder injury, not only did it knock him out of some playing time, but when he was playing, he didn't look right. And I felt like last week, the offensive line was healthy. Derek Carr was slinging it downfield. Like this is the offense that we anticipated seeing from the Saints. They got Alvin Kamara back. They're using Taysom Hill effectively. Rashid Shahid and Michael Thomas and Chris Olave is actually one of the most underrated like trios of receivers in the league. And then their defense is stout. They can,

they can defend the run with their front guys and then play really good man defense on the backend. So you have to be really good to beat them. You have to be really good at man coverage. I don't think that Tyson Bajent throwing to these bears receivers is, is the key to unlocking, you know, this, this Saints defense.

So I think this is a situation where, where at home, you know, the Saints kind of get it back on track. They moved to five and four and kind of like set their eyes on the division win with how easy the rest of their schedule is. So spread or tease, I don't mind either one with the Saints, but the way I played it was to tease them down with the, with the Dolphins. Connor, what are you good at your eye on? Yeah, no, that actually also just moved. It looks like we're getting eight and a half at circa nine at pinnacle at this point on the Saints.

On Saints? Yeah, it just moved like mid-show because I was seeing seven and a half too. But I mean, I think you're on the right side there. It's just like when you think in like handicap, how these teams match up, it just like seems like it's going to be a complete disaster. I got some props circled in that game for sure. You know, I love my unders. So, you know, I got plenty of those circled on the Bears side.

A couple that I played otherwise, I think I like the Browns. We're looking at minus seven and a half here against the Cardinals. Their defense is, you know, dominant getting, you know, basically a backup quarterback here against the Cardinals. Um, I, their defense is, you know, dominant getting, uh, you know, basically a backup quarterback here for, for the Cardinals. Um, you know, I, beyond that getting Deshaun Watson back, which I think is, I don't know, maybe a net neutral right now, but in the longterm, probably in that positive, uh, hopefully. And so, I don't know, I think it's just a little bit of value there before the 10. And then I think, uh, the, uh,

chargers and jets game. I feel like this is like, I know like trap lines don't exist and everything. Like, I know that's like not even a real thing, but, uh, I don't know.

I kind of feel like this game should be more than three. I don't know. Is that, is that like a crazy thing to say? Like this is, this is going to a hundred percent. You're going to see those stupid fucking tweets. Like,

you know, 98% of the bets are tweets like you know 98 of the bets are on you know whatever the jets and 80 of the monies are 90 of the monies bets are on the chargers and 90 of the monies on the jets something like that um i don't know maybe i'm a square for liking the chargers clark you got any takes on that game because i'm i bet it but i mean i think it could get to three and a half um the theets offensive line is a problem. I mean, they're really, really banged up. And Zach Wilson under pressure is just not a thing that you want to have a bunch of money on. So a lot of it depends on kind of how they're addressing their offensive line. I saw Dwayne Brown maybe might get activated this week, at least his practice window opened uh they went through three centers last week and fumbled snaps and it was a complete mess in the rain so so i think anyone who watched that game and how badly the jet's offensive line played is going to have hesitation backing the jets i think that's going to push this up to three and a half at which point i could see some buyback

just on the principle that the chargers offense isn't good enough to be laying three and a half against the jets defense on the road. So, yeah, I think it's going to be one of those games that kind of, if you want three and a half on the Jets, I think you'll get it. And if you want three on the Chargers, I think you should take it now because I think both of those numbers will appear at some point. Yeah, good stuff. All right. Yeah, all I had was the Packers one.

It's like, it just doesn't feel well. It doesn't feel right. So Chargers square play by the number. Yeah, I like it just doesn't doesn't feel well uh it doesn't feel right so Chargers square play by the number yeah I mean I don't know Connors I think Connors right um and I mean the Jets defense is really good I that's gonna be something I lean pretty heavy to in the prop market uh going forward because they didn't play uh Sauce and DJ Reed didn't play for a couple weeks and so like their numbers are I think that's actually one of the best things to capitalize on just overall it's like when guys don't play and like it skews a lot of perception and like people haven't really factored that in maybe not as much in the size

and totals market but definitely in the prop market so well you see it you see it earlier in the week i think before the market matures and i think that's why we got under money in this chargers jets game it was 41 and a half i think now it's down to 40 i think that was both wait this just defense is really good and wow thisets offensive line is really banged up, I think those two things combine into wanting to play the under because this has, you know, Chargers 20 to three written all over it, you know, if the Chargers defense shows up. And I think that's just going to be an easy win for the under if that happens. So. All right. Good stuff.

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