Move The Line - The Ultimate Wild Card Betting Guide: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: January 8, 2025

Kick off the week with our expert betting breakdown for NFL Wild Card! Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Wild Card betting guide and get ready to win big! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

hello and welcome to move the line not prop drop shot i wish it was the prop drop so used to presented by draft kings sports book i'm ryan hoon joined here as always back stateside after a little hiatus off conor allen what's going on buddy yeah feels good to be back i'm alive uh not as sick anymore but you are sick now with something else i i don't think the same thing thankfully i wouldn't wish that upon anyone but i think you're you're doing better too right i'm doing a little bit better you can tell at the top maybe you don't have my fastball open up uh you know prop drop uh notes so i have my prop drop open at the top just by you know like ron burgundy just read what ones on the sheet. So, yeah, I wish I had what you had because that means that I would have gone to, like, Mexico

and had, you know, drank the water. And, you know, I guess it's a side effect of obviously being there. You know not to do so, but at least you're also there. I mean, you came back here to Chicago and it's like 10 degrees and windy and brutal. It's cold. Yeah, it's cold. It's real cold. So good to have you back. It's cold. Yeah, it's cold. It's real cold. So good to have you back.

And excited. We're turning the page. It is playoff season. We're excited to talk briefly about our thoughts on all these matchups this week. Probably dabble in a little bit of future discussion. We've been dancing around. Do we give some time at the top to futures and awards? Because the pricing in the award market would tell you right now that they're mostly dead. Again, in terms of awards, voting starts to roll in now.

But you can still bet on these markets and they can still move a little bit. So while the football that supposedly goes into deciding these outcomes is over, the markets are still livened up there for you to bet on too. So also want to remind folks as well, obviously, as I tried to tell you, two episodes of Moodline each week. Friday's the Prop Drop Show. We'll be back as always, 3 p.m. Eastern, to get into all of our super wild card weekend props.

If you take 30 seconds to review the show or subscribe our thumbs up, all those things go a long way in helping us keep these shows free. If you're watching now on the four, four bets, YouTube channel, you can do that there as well. Like if I move the line, wherever you listen to podcasts,

you can also go to four, four.com slash plans, scoop up a betting sub fantasy is over. Hopefully you won lots of titles, but we still bet. Right. And it's a communal process we like doing that together we have a great discord community that i think if you've never been a part

of that you would really enjoy um you know fantasy is a lot of head to head you reverse your boys you know you got secret you know like four for four you don't want to really let people know that you have that in your you know back pocket betting is all communal like to win together sweat together uh really really cheap right now less than 20 bucks to sweat the playoffs with us as well get in get a sample of what that's like check that out four for four dot com slash plants uh we're talking about some of the lines available through our partner over at profit x uh if you're not familiar with it, it's a sports exchange that is just, I don't know. We had a guest on from ProfitX. We're going to have him on again soon talking about their space in the market. I mean, user versus user, peer versus peer, instead of you

against the house, keeps the VIG down basically 15%, 20% versus standard lines. We're going to talk about some of those lines today. A great way to get down, especially if liquidity is an issue for you, available in, you know, over 40 states, head to ProfitX.com and you can download that app. Use that promo code Betsperts and you will get a $300 profit cash over your next 30 days to use to kind of check that out. So highly, highly recommend that. Do you want to touch on anything in the awards market? I mean, we're touching on, I mean, it feels like MVP in general market sentiment is very different than what like talking head narratives are at this point, or even anything you're reading feels significantly more like a 50, 50 toss up compared to maybe the

last time we spoke though. Again, the betting market is telling you that is Josh Allen hammer time. But it seems to be like a growing community of, hey, look, Lamar Jackson's been awesome. Lamar Jackson's been better than previous MVP iterations of Lamar Jackson. What are your thoughts on MVP? Yeah, Josh Allen minus 450 right now. Lamar Jackson plus 320. I mean, it's kind of tough to argue with that i think like you mentioned you could probably speculatively play lamar at plus 320

if you felt like there was enough momentum there there's usually a couple of people to try and collect information on like who's voting for who and things like that and it is closer than you know i think the odds suggest i'm just not sure if like that, that's not, it just probably won't win. So like that's, again, it's not even like you're going to get CLV on it. You're just going to be like, oh, well, it was actually a 60, 40, you know, when instead of us 80% or 90% implied that Josh Allen is here. So, uh, you don't get partial credit either wins or he doesn't. So unfortunately I think that right now, Josh Allen's probably the look to win,

but I'm not laying minus 450 because you never know. There's some weird first place, second place voting stuff that I don't really fully understand. Yeah. Yeah, the way it's tabulated, that can mess some stuff up. I agree with you. Yeah, it might be minus 160 plus 140, whatever. It doesn't really matter, it's a it's a

binary outcome i don't think josh did anything to lose the stranglehold that he seemed to have had early in december even though you know lamar played really good football down the stretch lamar played really good football all season long and i don't think you can use the lamar statistical relevance of what he did in other seasons to make your argument for this season per se but i know if it comes down to a team award positionally right yeah they lost head to head i guess the bills did but you know fewer losses for the bills overall um yeah i mean i think it's a close race but i think it should i like to see josh win personally so i don't know also yeah no i i i don't disagree also just like a public service

announcement you know if if anyone is trying to use like epa as a crutch as their argument like i promise you they they don't care about that the voters don't care about that the only one who even knows what epa is is probably mean to kimes i mean that's like probably the only you know like some of the other voters i'm sure know what it is but don't just don't care about that stuff so like yeah just it just yeah it doesn't matter it'd be like using you know pass rush win rate to determine defensive player of the year or something like that it's just no one's great segue i mean yeah what do you think about so it's fascinating to me we uh we're touching on this earlier before we you know hit live um you know it's an outlier for a cornerback to win this award.

Last time was Stefan Gilmore. A couple of years ago, Pat's were the number one seed. They were the best defense in the league by far. He had, I think he led the league in interceptions, lots of big place. It was just routinely shadowing doing some of the things that certain is.

So this is not a knock on him as a player. I think he's terrific. It's just surprising and again it makes sense in a season where we don't have a massive sack total from an edge rusher on a playoff team uh that you would have something like this happen we've kind of been pretty consistent that we thought tj watt was bad shock again not because tjatt's not awesome but because he's just statistically not putting up mind-bending numbers and you know we thought there was a chance they were gonna limp into the playoffs and as what happened um but now we've moved out suddenly it was like a flip and it was like all of a sudden Sertain's minus 250 out of nowhere now let's

climb to minus 500 where he is feels like I mean he's a bigger favorite than Josh Allen is to be MVP. No one really emerged, but I don't know. It still feels like now it's new bad chalk. I just don't understand how we got here. You didn't have a moment. He didn't have, you know,

game changing pick six, his teammate did who had multiple scores this year who was uh you know a great great story also one of the league leaders in sacks he's 100 to 1 uh but sirtan is minus 500 so um you definitely any play is betting strongly against the market but i don't really even know how we got here typically you know right, like he's just been really good. And corners are tough because like most people aren't looking like, oh, he's only allowed this many yards in coverage or like, you know, things like that because it kind of goes unnoticed,

like you mentioned, without like big interceptions or big moments. And so, yeah, this one's a tough one for me. I'm not enough of a ball knower and award knower to know like, oh, like, well, actually a lot of people are going to vote for someone else or this guy like, or whatever to really present value because I don't really like most other guys either.

And I think this is like, you know, I don't think there's a ton of guys with a great case that are around there. I mean, Nick Benito is fine, but he's a hundred to one probably for a reason. Like,

I don't know. It's, it's, it's just tough to think that like, oh yeah they're gonna not only not vote for chattan but they're gonna vote for benito as well um i agree would they avoid putting two broncos in the ballot too like that could just completely make him dead we got into some of that in years past where it's you know they're i mean we had

that last year even at the mvp discussion right where it's like brock purdy and cmc were cannibalizing each other and it's like well are they i mean i don't know it's it's like brock purdy and cmc were cannibalizing each other and it's like well are they i mean i don't know it's it's hard i think if you're going to splash this market at all it is benito at 100 it doesn't it seems too long but again another one of these scenarios where it's like all right he's 100 he probably should be 10. but he's not going to win it doesn't really matter right but like going back through it you know if watt couldn't kind of run away as the clear favorite you know 701 doesn't make a lot of sense hendrickson made a push and if you would have had a backdoor bangles playoff berth then maybe you would have a chance because again you know leading the league in sacks getting someone an island game

to try to put them into the playoffs, you know, stack in three. Again, like just an awesome, awesome season. It just is somewhat unprecedented in the last 15, 20 years for someone to win this award on a team that's not in the playoffs. So that makes it really, really hard for him. If that's the case, it makes no sense that even Miles Garrett being 75 and Hendrickson is seven, right? Cause they're both kind of in the same boat.

Kirby Joseph makes no sense to me at 30, but again, at least he has a high number of interceptions. You know, not because he's not a good player, but like, it can be alignment based. It's just, you know, they're so random in terms of interception. So, you know, Van Ginkle has been awesome. Should he be way different than his teammate at 30 when Jonathan Grenard is 150?

No, but also none of this makes any sense or makes a difference if they're not winning. So it's just, I don't know. I think splashing a little bit on Benito at 100 makes a little sense to me, but again, it could be way off here. Certain numbers, probably the one that's moving and is as strong as anything in the market right now.

I mean, hey, if you want to just donate $5 to DraftKings, to DKNG, just so that you can be like, you know what? He got more than 100 votes. I feel good about myself. Like I beat the market. I got that CLV kind of, you know, like it was a plus EV play on paper.

So you pay yourself on the back. Thank you. And know that, you know, maybe if you invest in DKNG, your stock will go up, you know, that's, that's all you care about. Well, I have DKNG stock. It's not going up. First of all, they also won't take $5, a $5 bet. So yeah, I don't think they will either. Let's see. That's tough, dude.

DKNG. I mean, they're them and then Flutter. Did you see the That's tough, dude. DK and G I mean, they're them. And then flutter. Did you see the flutter story by the way, the fan don't want, no, it was pretty funny.

So something came out yesterday, their press release. And so flutter, the parent company of fan dual was like, they said, this was the most customer friendly, a quarter in 20 years. And like the headline that was from someone who wrote the article was like,

FanDuel got slammed, like customers, you know, like crush them, like most, you know, and then like quoted the press release, but they put the numbers in the press release.

So I'm like, really, how much did they lose? You know, I'm like, that's crazy. Flutter is a company adjusted their, their revenue,

like projections from 606 billion to 570 billion. They like dropped 30 billion or whatever it was. And then their EBITDA, which is, you know, essentially just how much they're taking home at the end of the day was went from like 300 million to like 220 million. Like that was like their, I mean, what are they going to do? I mean, i mean what are they going to do i mean this is how are they going to survive on 220 million you know what i mean like which i understand shareholders probably pissed stock i'm sure went down but though just the way it was framed in the context of what was written about it i was like like these people are crying fucking wolf and they're making 220 million dollars like what are we doing here it's all about being relative to the projections for your shareholders so that's a big l yeah

that's the real so good uh coach of the year kevin o'connell again kind of in the ballpark of everyone minus 450 uh dan campbell next to three to one Then your big drop-off using FanDuel's or DraftKings' odds here. Sean Payton, Dan Quinn, Harbaugh. Is there a hole to be punched in this considering how things ended on Sunday night with a strong Dan Campbell win? Locking it up or is it still Kevin O'Connell in your eyes? I mean, yeah, if I'm voting for this, I'm voting for Dan Campbell. I don't understand even like what we're doing here he beat him twice and they're like 16 and one i mean it's kevin

o'connell made more with less i guess that's the only argument right like but like i mean i don't know it's been the award right yeah i guess that's the truth right is like you're just doing more with less, you know, it's not even about being the best or anything. I don't know. I mean, Dan Campbell, I think generally and Ben Johnson have done a lot with, I mean, they have a lot sometimes, but like their defense has been beat up their, you know, offense. Like Jared golf was never a household name until, you know, last couple of years, basically like he played pretty poorly from time to time.

I don't know. Like Jameson Williams is basically doing something illegal like once a week at this point. I mean, like. Allegedly. Allegedly, yeah. No, it hasn't been called yet. I don't know.

It's like this Lions team is kind of scrappy too. Like, and the Vikings have plenty of players. I don't know. I just like, I get it. Kevin O'Connell's had a great season, but I feel like Dan Campbell beating him twice, like especially like triumphantly beating him with like a beat up defense should have been,

I thought at least even or like made it 50, 50. And now we're looking at minus four 50 Kevin O'Connell plus 300 Dan Campbell. So I don't know. I just, this award just always pisses me off. Just,

I can never get a, get a good read on it. So don't, don't bet whatever I'm saying on it. That's, that's, are you betting? Are you betting Dan Campbell?

No, no. Okay. I should though. Probably. You probably you probably should i was gonna win then kevin connell's gonna i'm betting it whatever fucking i don't care i'm betting 14 bastards all right yes dude that is amazing like good you can get a margarita and maria's for that uh if dan campbell wins if he wins i don't i don't hate it i i think you're right but again it could be another one of those scenarios where it's just you know it becomes very clear to us based off of what the voters do here again if it's just i don't know this is them telling on themselves i guess even more so would be drilling home the point that it is a exceeding expectations award versus

coaching the award because also i think you know the media is weird with dan campbell at some point here in the next five years it'll drastically turn on dan campbell uh because it's just the nature of like we build people up and we break you down so we can get a comeback story and you come back right now it's a everyone loves Dan Campbell. How can you not want to play for a guy like that? And he goes to war for his guys. All like the bravado that you had in the day one press conference that people were like, what the hell is this? Now everyone loves it.

Just like, oh my gosh, I love that so much. And at some point it will turn, I'm guessing. But I don't know. Maybe there's something to be said for people loving him so much that he can overcome the high expectations that the Lions had this season. But again, I think this will be really indicative of how we need to approach this award moving forward based off of these results.

Because I think it is a really strong indicator of exceeding expectations versus just kind of consistently being awesome. Yeah, no, totally agree. Hunter brings up a good point. Just takes the fourth downs going wrong in the NFC Championship Super Bowl for everyone to turn. I also think that losing Ben Johnson is going to be really interesting. Probably Aaron Penn.

I mean, possibly. Right. Like, I mean, you're losing both your coordinators. Like, I don't think Dan Campbell himself is a particularly good, like, X's and O's coach by any means. He's a good motivator. So, like, I mean, I think it puts a lot of pressure on the coordinators to be better of whoever they are.

And, you know, they obviously have plenty of good players. But, yeah, I would, I don't know. I'm interested to see what that win total looks like next year. I'm interested to see how we can fade them with the Vikings, with the Packers, and hopefully the Bears. I mean, God forbid, being a little bit better next year. So just something to keep in mind, I think, in the future. Yeah. Comeback player better next year. So just something to keep in mind, I think, in the future. Yeah.

Comeback player of the year. You know, we had GRP wins on to talk about his, you know, Sam Darnold ticket at the time, which was like, hey, people are punching holes in your Sam Darnold ticket because by the letter of the law now, he seems to not be eligible. But, you know, they've said it's just kind of a guideline. Again, this is the worst award anyway. So like the fact that this is like this so much discrepancy in how this award

and what qualifies for this award, it makes all the sense in the award. I'm not sure how Joe Burrow qualifies for this award. He played like 10, 11 games last season. It was really good. Didn't finish the season. It's been awesome. So finding a way to award Joe Burrow for an awesome season. I was really good. Didn't finish the season. It's been awesome. So finding a way to reward Joe Burrow for an awesome season, I guess is making the favorite for comeback player of the year. Sam Darnold as well. I mean, he didn't play last season. And then you get to

some other scenarios like J.K. Dobbins coming back from an injury. Tomorrow, Hamlin coming back from the dead. I don't know i still think that the hamlin thing is really interesting like he played started all year for the for the bills last year the argument was we can't possibly give this guy the award he played three snaps defensive snaps all season outside of special teams this year he played like 90 of the snaps on a team that's two seed has maybe the league mvp i don't know is hamlin at 80 crazy or what do you do with the comeback player of the year it's i mean it just shows like dying isn't enough then what is enough you know like what does it take i mean

like alex smith had that whole thing but you know he almost died he never actually died you know that was like that's the thing so maybe you just have to almost die. He never actually died. You know, that was like, that's the thing. So maybe you just have to almost die. Like if you actually die, you're just like immediately disqualified. It's a good point. Because I guess for 30 seconds, you weren't even like alive. So you weren't a real person.

Right. So it just must erase it from the vote. The biggest comeback that there is. Theoretically. Literally. Jesus Christ wouldn't qualify for a comeback player of the year. I mean, he died.

I, I, I just can't believe it. I i totally agree i mean i bet it a while ago i don't remember when one time during the show i was like yeah that makes sense the odds has never moved so i'm done donating to the damar uh death award uh you know come back here but i think there's a statue of limitations from coming back because i I mean, that's your only argument is that he – because he didn't do it within that calendar year. He's outside the statute of limitations from coming back.

That's it. That's the anti-Hamlin. I feel like he should even be more qualified now because he died, came back, didn't play, and then now is playing because he's better. He qualifies like Darnold was trash and now is playing, and he's playing well you know, because he's like better. So like he qualifies like Darnold, like was trash and now he's playing and he's playing well. And I don't know, like, I feel like under that guys, which he could be qualified, but I don't know.

It's none of, again, this is another award that makes no sense to me. Um, but I don't know. I mean, I'm not sure that there was like a massive amount of Darnold's team, like a week, maybe a couple of days ago, like they were even money. Like Burrow was plus one 15 at one time, one point, like in the last week. And I was in Mexico,

so I, I couldn't bet it. Um, but you know, I thought that was a good look. I mean, I think Burrow, Burrow has to win something.

He played at such a high level. Like it was awesome. Obviously can't win MVP, but, um, and who's going to win. Oh, like OPY, uh, Saquon. Saquon. Yeah. So, I mean,

this is, I probably just burrows award, unfortunately. Yeah. I mean, I, we don't even have offensive player of the year right now, but Saquon was such a runaway favorite. Again, this is the thought of like, this would be in a great case for like Lamar. Like if you, like you want to make a case for giving lamar something outside of the mvp because of his statistical season offensive play of the year would be make a ton of sense but seems that has been sealed delivered already to saquon and again 2 000 yard season seems awesome um hard not to you know argue just we're just poking holes on these the chalk here the chalk feels as bad as ever in some of these markets right now so i mean i wonder i i don't know maybe maybe

you're right and maybe we should just be taking like a bunch of stabs across the board like long shots and just like i mean flacco was like crazy odds heading into it like there was a bunch of ones that were like wild odds and then you know some people just like didn't even vote for demar hamlin i i don't know there's maybe people just hate demar hamlin i don't know maybe that were like wild odds and then you know some people just like didn't even vote for demar hamlin i i don't know there's maybe people just hate demar hamlin i don't know maybe that's like like there could be some others other things at play here uh potentially but i don't know we'll see yeah well it's not even actually demar hamlin we know that oh yeah it's i forgot that's why he's like a clone or what did they say he's's like, yeah. Is he a crisis actor? Is a crisis actor.

He was clones. And, uh, that day that he was in the, uh, the box and waves, that was just a hologram, I believe.

Yeah. I forgot about all that. That's, that was, was that before Elon bought Twitter or was that the same time? Cause if he, a great question, if it was at the same time,

I mean, we'd, that shit would be popping off on our feeds right now the for you feed would be going nuts well i hear demar hamlin was actually the guy that drove the cyber truck uh in front of the trump hotel in vegas it wasn't actually uh you're telling you this makes it makes sense why no one's voting for him that makes sense stay awake people okay all right uh let's jump into the super wild card rounds here uh lots of coaching stuff we'll get into in the offseason um coaching carousel continuing to to

evolve and i think it will obviously as we uh go through the playoffs here typical trend of coaches getting plucked off of playoff teams too so lots of things to discuss we'll get to that later in the season again why you have to subscribe because we we don't take a break i would take like a break the week after the super bowl or something like that but then we you know hit the ground running start talking draft start talking offseason stuff right away all right first game saturday as always if you've seen this poor texans like all the times in the playoffs they get the uh bill simmons called the shakies game it is like the worst uh, what Bill Simmons would call the shakies game. It is like the worst, uh, typical game of the week, which I don't even think that's necessarily the case here,

but the Texans here, uh, in the front spot on Saturday afternoon, uh, you know, some different prices out there. We're kind of hovering between two and a half and three. Do you want to bring up the, uh, profit X lines? We can kind of get to see what our prices are are out there right now total dipped to uh opened around 44 and a half which is i hate that i missed it because i think 44 and a half under it's a really really strong look in this game 42 and a half uh pretty much out there readily available now probably still lean under a little bit on that uh you have to

pay a little bit of freight for uh juicy 44 and a half now uh you can see yeah oh i mean that's not even that bad to be honest under 146 um right sitting around a key number just you know limping in here in the texan side and obviously a dynamic with their offense losing step digs losing tank tell uh you. It's been kind of a step back year for CJ Stroud, but part of that is some of the injuries. The offensive line has really struggled as well. If you look at composite CPOE and EPA per play, it's been towards the bottom all season long.

I think they're 31st in offensive success rate. Limp it in. Chargers feel like a very chalky road favorite here as well, with their own questions offensively, at least in terms of ceiling. That's why I thought the under on the game, especially at 44.5, made a ton of sense. But do you have a lean here early on Chargers-Texas? Yeah, I was kind of surprised to see this as Chargers three-point road favorites.

I kind of thought it would just be about like a pick, which is crazy. I don't know if I really want to be caught holding a houston you know plus three here but i think that that's probably yeah i think that's probably uh you know the move here like we're looking at texans i think should be able to actually run the ball in the chargers the chargers played really good run defense early in the season that kind of broke down like later on we know the texans want to run the ball and if they can i think that opens up a lot for them uh i also don't really know how the Chargers are going to contain Nico Collins specifically so you know like and to be honest besides all this like just anecdotally I would

not be surprised to see CJ Stroud just like step up in a big moment here after playing like you mentioned pretty poorly I would say most of the season or just like average you know kind of took a step back so I don't know I think a couple of those factors together i mean you're getting three points at home with a quarterback we know is more than capable like yes he doesn't have all his weapons yes solvency line is not great but i think there are some paths here where they just i mean they went outright you know i think it's very very very possible so as much as i've been a charger stan all year i think that houston uh is the right side here yeah i would say if you like Houston, you wouldn't even mess with these points. I think you just take the money line.

It's probably the best way to get that. I would lean. Plus 142, yeah. And they're also a nice spot, too, just to tease up. Because, again, sitting at two and a half through the three, through the seven, and a spot where we're expecting you know pretty low point total you know expect the chargers to go run away with anything here regardless i think it's probably a one score game so uh i would lean chargers especially you know under three but it's not a

play that i'm dying to make i'm with you i think there's some opportunities here for them to strike i still think that there's you know the char the Chargers defense has been, you know, probably outperforming what the actual unit is all season long. And I think they will be able to run the ball here too, which is interesting. So yeah, I mean, probably the best way to go about it would be Texans money line, tease the game, or if you like the Chargers, I make sure you find a two and a half cause they are out there. So yeah, I think it's going to be an interesting game. I mean, you can get pressure on this chargers team, but you know, that's obviously something that the Texans do really well.

You can get obviously a ton of pressure on the Texans as well, but typically that's coming from the inside. So you're probably going to have to see some stunts and some different stuff that some unique looks that brings that pressure in, you know, down the throat really for Stroud. Cause the, you know,

basically center guard has been really problematic all season between injuries and just poor performance all season long. That's again, why I like the under, I think there can be, you know, lots of you know, three and outs, some sacks that flip the field and stuff like that. So I'm kind of with you though. It feels like an overcorrection, especially since it seems like I haven't heard anyone talk about the taxes

this week. No one seems to be on the Texas people are talking about the chargers upsetting the chiefs next week right like we're just we're just getting ahead of ourselves a little bit so all right uh next we have the steelers in uh baltimore against the ravens this one's got cooked out through the teaser zone because we were right there around seven and a half eight at open um 10 met some resistance we got to the tens basically i've been bought back nine and a half for the most part across the board totals kind of hovering in the same spot there as the first game around 43 and a half in the marketplace uh there are some i don't know you

can tell me if you think it's true i don't you know want to to take your handicap away there's some really lazy handicapping on this one it feels like if you want to start to talk to me about this matchup and what happened when these two teams played in 2016 or how these two teams are always play close like you lose me right away like i i am completely out on anything you have to say after that because if you want to tell me that the laundry from this side the laundry from that side match up this way and this is historically going to be a 1917 game because they always are that's really stupid to me um we just saw this game and it was a 17 point game yes that was

without george pickens um but this steelers team has kind of turned into maybe who we thought they were. I'm not super excited to lay this number, Connor, but I'm hearing a lot of handicapping just being like, you've got to take the points. These are always close games. If you date back to 2015, this day is so stupid. What do you think? Yeah, it's a pretty tough one for me

because if Zay Flowers was in, I'd feel pretty good, I think, Yeah, it's, it's a pretty tough one for me because, uh, if they flowers was in, I'd be pretty, feel pretty good. I think about laying it with Baltimore. Um, just because he's like, I would say they're one primary functional receiver that can consistently win. Uh, Rashad Bateman is fine. He's like an outside receiver, Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely like Mark Andrews, like kind of oscillates between being great and like a geriatric, like you never really know which one you're going to get. And then Isaiah likely is, is randomly turned up. So it's, for me, it's, it's just like not consistent. And I mean, we see this all the time.

Lamar gets there, gets in the playoffs. If he falls behind, I would not say flowers. I mean, they're just toast. Like if, if they like, if Pittsburgh returns two punts, like they're going to lose outright. Like the Baltimore is losing outright, you know, some, just something ridiculous like that happened. And that's just kind of the risk that we've seen with Baltimore. But if they play in a normal game script, I mean, Baltimore probably wins by 10 plus. And I think that's the more, most likely outcome again, like the other outcome was like kind of fluky and I don't really see Pittsburgh's offense doing enough to like put Baltimore in that you know playing from behind kind of space there that we talked about is like basically a systemic risk to Lamar at all times essentially uh so I think in this

spot here I I kind of like Baltimore their defense has been playing way better they talked about in the broadcast a bunch which I thought was pretty cool I don't know last time to time before about how they moved uh some of their secondary around and like, you know, started switching things up and it like made a dramatic change for them like week 11 on, I think. So I don't know. I like this defense, George Pickens, you know, kind of had an off game last week and the running game is not working as well. This Ravens run defense with Michael Pierce is a great run defensive unit. So like they match up well in that aspect. Um, and I think their office will still have success on other side. Like I just,

you know, I don't think they're going to probably drop like 40 on them or anything, but like, could they score 27 to 30? Yeah, no problem. I think a lot of that happens probably through Derek Henry through Lamar on the ground.

Yeah. Those are all good points. Uh, yeah. Since week 11, they made those changes first in EPA, uh, against the past. This is a team that we

were just trying to find ways to get like longest reception you know um you know passing yards over receivers over it was really really bad cutting eddie jackson uh you know benching marcus williams they moved you know marla humphrey in the slot, Kyle Hamilton back. It's been, you know, Darius Washington's been awesome. So yeah, they've been really, really strong unit. So yeah, part of it is like, I'm not super excited to lay the nine and a half. Baltimore, it's probably the side. I think if you like Pittsburgh,

I think you should just have the stones and like Connor's point, just go money line. Like I think there could be live to win if this game gets just wonky. Taking the points because because what is it? Plus 430. Yeah. Taking the points here because these games historically are always close is

that's not it for me. So yeah, I don't know. There's, there's a, there's more ways to go about it. So yeah, definitely interesting to see and not trending well for say say flowers and that definitely impacts the the ceiling to your point of what we can expect for this ravens offense all right first few months oh good no i was gonna say yeah dnp first two days they plan saturday first game on saturday

or second game on saturday but still so like realistically has to practice tomorrow limited essentially at all to have a chance like he has to be limited tomorrow if not then just basically out so yeah it looked like just the like a bruise like i can't say that as i sit here uh you know uh and not i'm not on the fields and but i'm just saying like it didn't look like it was a sprain it looked like he took a helmet to the inside of his knee which i'm sure hurts like hell um you know it makes it very very sore but in terms of like structural stuff it feels like just we can work through that pain the bruising goes down it starts to get a little bit more mobility back he probably is okay if they start to move forward so it didn't seem like it was going to be anything like ligament wise just fell awkward guy came on top of him,

and I think he took a helmet right there. All right, the first Sunday game, Broncos-Bills. This is still hovering in the teaser zone. Eight and a half's out there. There are some nines. Total sitting around key numbers as well, 46 and a half, 47. If you shop that around here, you could see some of the stuff that we have on ProfitX.

Some pretty good prices there. don't hate that at all uh interesting game obviously you know just blanket statements betting on rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs on the road probably a pretty good fade lifetime i don't have that data in front of me but it's probably the right way to go about things um broncos are feisty i do think that there are some things they do defensively that can cause trouble for the bills but also really bode well for the way that the bills like to play offense too with you know a lot of blitzing doesn't really work against josh allen takes sacks at a very low rate creates man to man uh behind them a lot that's not really great historically against Josh Allen either. You get Amari Cooper back here as well.

Came back to practice today. So thoughts on Broncos bills. Yeah. Mari's huge for them as someone who I think can help separate in short to intermediate spaces like him and Khalil Shakir, probably pretty big focal point. I would guess maybe a little more Curtis Samuel too. I mean,

I don't know. They use them a bunch of last week, obviously in like our game, it didn't really matter, but it did matter. The game mattered, Connor. I mean, I don't know. They used him a bunch last week, obviously, in like a game that didn't really matter. It did matter. That game mattered, Connor. It ruined my day. It ruins part of my week.

It looked like they wanted to lose. Like legit. They did. They out-tanked the Patriots. They did because they wanted the team in their division to have a worst draft pick. And like, I mean, it's genius. It's incredible.

It was so good. I mean, they benched, what was his name? They put in mike white and like he just couldn't move the ball at the end of the game like it was uh you know i think mvp mitch was moving it a little too well and they're like shit we gotta lose this like this is a little too close uh and so yeah they they pulled the trigger and joe milton i mean joe milton looked great to be honest he looked awesome uh I actually had a buddy last year, you know, before March or something like that. We were talking about what the Patriots needed to do, and he's like,

you need to get better. You wanted to take Marvin. He's like, let's just take Joe Milton, like the sixth or seventh round. Let's leave it alone. We don't need Drake May. Let's just go get Marvin Harrison. Let's go get something else, and let's just let Joe Milton go. I'm like, okay. So I text just let Joe Milton go. I'm like, okay. Well, so I texted him before the game started.

I'm like, this is on you if this blows up. And sure enough, it did. Joe Milton looked good. He cooked. Oh my gosh. Well, I mean, yeah, that's tough. He looked awesome. I mean, I don't think they're going to trade him, but we'll see.

He looked like what we all thought Anthony Richardson was going to be ideally. So, but I mean, it's against a bunch of backups and, you know, like it was, it's not a really game we should put a ton of stock into, but for sure. Um, anyways, this one, no, I know we kind of, we kind of got derailed there. Uh, Denver Buffalo, Denver is a really tough team for me because they just keep winning games and playing well. And I don't really think they're very good, but they just like keep playing well, I guess it's like none of their receivers have consistent usage outside of Cortland Sutton. Uh, all of their running backs, basically it's been a lot of Julio McLaughlin lately, but like, I mean, they were talking about like a two to three week sample, like Sean Payton can wake up tomorrow and this

guy could be benched again. You know, like we have just no idea. Um, and defensively they've played mostly pretty well. Obviously the, the, uh, Riley Moss getting injured a little bit a while ago and I'm coming back and then still getting roasted. I think someone caught a couple of deep balls against him,

uh, recently as well. Like, but I think in this instance, like I have a tough time seeing Keon Coleman be much a factor here as a guy who doesn't separate particularly well. So I think they're gonna have to feed, like feed the guys over the middle from the bills. Like it's just a tough game for

me because I think at seven, I was pretty interested seven and a half. I was pretty interested in Buffalo eight and a half, nine. We're getting up there. I just have a tough time with it. Cause like we see, we're going to see Bo Nix run a lot. I think he's going to move a good bit. And like, he's, he just played better. Like it's just like from the beginning of the season to now they've gotten so much better in basically everything that it's been it's just like a tough fade for me because i i don't know maybe it's just a piece of me is still like loves the broncos a little bit but i just like i have a tough time getting there and then when they of course when they lose by 30 it's going to be the most obvious you know bills should have bet the

bills of all time right yeah that's it's It's just you feel good holding that ticket when at first Josh Allen, 20-yard scramble, rushing touchdown. You're like, oh, man, just chasing all game. That's going to be a tough one. The Bills defense is disappointed all year, I think. They also have had some injuries. They've had injuries really on all three levels, dealing with a lot of secondary injuries over the last month in in particular really kind of just split the season in half back half of the season they have been

basically a bottom three pass defense epa i think they're dead last and passing success rate since like week 10 it's just not not good enough so um how the bills or how the broncos go about attacking it i think it's going to be interesting to see. We had a really hard time playing whack-a-mole. This receiver had back-to-back games of 18-yard ADOT, and then next week it's negative three. They just threw him a bunch of screens. It's this running back, and no, it's not. So how they go about it, we never really know.

They seem to land the plane a lot. But again, Josh Allen at home, I guess the team that really makes their bread and butter with getting home and pass rush uh and really solidifying what they could do with man coverage has just been a recipe for success for josh allen the entirety of the last couple of seasons so um bills are nothing for me i really don't have any any appetite for the broncos and again eight and a half t's down to two and a half. I think it's a fantastic teaser,

like for, for the weekend. So I'll like that one quite a bit. Yeah. Like we, when you look at the Broncos metrics and like, these are always the teams that I'm like, I don't really know what to do with this.

Cause we've seen them play fine. Sometimes Broncos are like between 16th and 18th and like EPA success rate. And like for dropback rushing offense, like just in basically every category they're just like average and but they win a lot of games and like they've won when it mattered and so that's not particularly a team that i like to bet on because it's usually not sticky like super sticky week to week yeah all right uh next one packers eagles and injury news coming here that seems for the most part

pretty good for both teams outside of obviously the christian watson uh season ending acl injury about four and a half across the board varying uh juice depending on where you're shopping obviously profit x fantastic numbers they are 44 45 and a half basically now across the board on the total for this game. Obviously, a rematch from week one. Shoot on Mexico, 34-29. Obviously, hard to really extrapolate anything that far back in terms of what we can expect with these teams. But it looks like Jalen Hurts practiced today. That was the encouraging news.

I think you're going to see pretty massive movement with this game. If he wasn't practicing today, that's a problem. So it looks encouraging here. It looks like Quay Walker coming back, Evan Williams coming back for the Packers. So their defense is getting healthy, which is the right time for them to handle that here. What are your thoughts on Packers-Eagles?

Yeah, I kind of like Philly here. Especially, I was kind of waiting for Hurts to be cleared and then give Philly a little pop here. Four and a half, I I think is more than fine. Overall, I think that their defense matches up pretty well against the Green Bay team without Christian Watson. I think the one player that can really give them problems. Obviously, I still think Jaden Reed a little bit can give them problems

just over the middle. But Dobbs, Wicks, that's a fantasy football hero, Wicks, that everyone thinks is super good and is just so so average to below average um like i just think those guys are fine and the eagle secondary is mostly handled i mean plenty of good receivers throughout throughout the season especially once they made their own changes as well so i think that they're going to um maybe not slow down entirely but uh you know i mean keep keep jordan love and company in check jordan love was also doing this one weird thing on the sideline. Like maybe he had his funny bone or something like that, but like he kept trying to throw it. He just kept like shaking his arm.

Like he was like, it was very weird. And I was like, all right, well maybe it was just this funny bone, but he did it for like, he kept trying to come back in and kept doing the same thing. I was like, I don't know. It was just strange. It's something to look out for. And he did, he played pretty poorly when he was in anyways, to be honest, it's bad bears defense. So not necessarily the momentum that you want going into a playoff game against an Eagles team.

That's played pretty well. And then offensively, I think for the Eagles, they have success against the green Bay defense that this, this is such an interesting defense. They're 28th and drop back success rate, but fourth in EPA because of turnovers. So on a per play basis, 28th overall, they're fourth, uh, on an EPA when you include turnovers

and everything. So, uh, yeah, again, another team that I think that that's not as much signal, um, especially if they're not, Philly's not going to turn the ball over, uh, as much. So I'm interested in Philly, but I know you're a packers guy or have been in the past um let's hear let's hear it yeah it's hard like you said they're not playing the way you would want them to be playing coming in right now um you know jordan love feels like just jekyll and hyde sometimes you feel like man this is a top five quarterback in the league when he's cooking like they have all these weapons to get it done.

Offensive line is strong. Josh Jacobs has been awesome. And sometimes they just don't look like they belong. And they've had a hard time beating upper echelon of the NFC, right? Their own teams in the division, you know, Vikings, Lions, lost here obviously the one time they played Philadelphia. So, yeah, they obviously didn't matter because, you know vikings lions lost here obviously the one time they played philadelphia so um yeah they obviously didn't didn't matter because you know what happened with washington but like i don't know just step on the bear's throat ensure that you're doing all you can to

avoid having to play philly in this game you just couldn't figure it out like you just it's not super encouraging so i think one of my favorite leans here is not typically a bet that i make but thinking about it as you were talking um i don't know what the number is both these teams love to run the football uh they're gonna have some success doing it but green bay um we know like even if you pull out the the weeks with you know your boy willis like when they went so run heavy they just super run heavy even in the love games. So we know, you know, we have a situation here where Hurts is kind of coming back,

finding his footing. Could you have a slow start to this game, under in the first quarter, under in the first half, if we happen to be on the right side of key numbers, you know, probably around like, I don't know, the way they juice it up a little bit, you'd probably be able to get maybe an under 23 and a half under 24 and a half In the first half that would probably be pretty appealing Yeah I'm looking at

23 and a half fan duel minus 25 22 and a half DK 365 etc etc I think the 23 and a half matters I think The 22 is the wrong side of yeah Um I don't know I could just see just pretty run Heavy game all of a sudden it's like

Damn this game is already in the second quarter You know a lot of running Cut the clock moving all of a sudden We find our footing got a quarterback who hasn't Played on one side for You know a couple of weeks now for sure As he's trying to figure it out so Under 132 or I'm sorry

Yeah minus 132 under 23 and a half here Okay yeah and you can um obviously buy more like liquidity at like the minus 134 minus 136 you can probably get like a grand down it's it's showing uh if you really want on 23 and a half on the under so kind of interesting yeah that's just my main how i think the game's gonna play out even more so when i was listening to you talk that just kind of jumped into my head also on the perimeter so weird this packers team another split they're like really good against perimeter wide receivers even without jair alexander they've been one of the best from like a success rate epa completion percentage over expectation in the middle of the field you can pick on them um so

here's the problem jalen hurts hates throwing over the middle of the field. So I don't know what that means. I don't know if that's Dallas Goddard. I want to dig in a little bit more. But yeah, we'll see. I think, yeah, under first half is a look that I like here. You know, maybe Philly second half, something like that. They find their footing a little bit. Because you could have a situation here where if you get bad Jordan Love,

and then all of a sudden, like, Philly just is able to run the ball all over the place. I agree. Bay has a real hard time if that's the game plan. Like the Packers need to jump out early, try to make Philadelphia play a little bit more of a pass happy game than they want to. Yeah. The Eagles have that same problem. We talked about with Baltimore.

If they fall behind here, like playing catch up is not in their best interest, especially against like a, I don't know, opportunistic defense. Yeah. All right. that same problem we talked about with Baltimore. If they fall behind here, like playing catch up is not in their best interest, especially against like a, I don't know, opportunistic defense. Yeah. All right. Next,

uh, last game on Sunday, another week, one rematch commanders are on the road in Tampa Bay. Uh, this is three, three and a half. We're popping out there as well.

A little bit, uh, 50 and a half 50 is the total, so you can chop that around. You can see on the screen some of the numbers that we have here on – you will in a moment when Connor catches up. There you go. It's lagging. There we go.

Some of the stuff that we have here on Tampa and Washington. Yes, you can see three and a half starting to get some Tampa Bay action, so that's moving out there in the marketplace as well. This one's tricky for me. I mean, there's some injuries on the Tampaa bay side secondary wise that have been just continuing to mount up looks like antoine winfield jr might be back for this one need to see what else is going on they've just had cluster injuries at corner and safety which is a problem but there's another spot too where like the holes we've punched in the commanders all season long have been

strength of schedule related and i think they were fair and i think they showed up a little bit and it's hard to say because they kind of showed up at the same time as jane daniel's injury uh so was that like just tougher competition or was that um you know the rookie quarterback kind of hitting the wall and people figuring them out a little bit we're on the other side tampa bay tampa base played like one of the hardest scheduled in the league so they're a little bit more battle tested for sure obviously in the spot the last couple years winning this division um i don't know i lean tampa bay at three three and a half i'm not super interested but uh what are your thoughts on commander's bucks i kind of like the over i think the over is fun here, 49.5, 50. I think both those are solid.

I think, like, when you think about this Bucks team, they're going to try and get pressure. They're going to try and make Jaden Daniels' life difficult. That's not always super easy, I think, you know, especially now that he's fully healthy from his rib injury that had midseason. Like, he's been running way more. He obviously has the ability to do that. He ran for whatever, 88 yards against him in week one when they played um and like i mean they ended up

losing that game obviously 37 to 20 but again it was high scoring so it was you know 57 total points uh and that was kind of before we really saw um i think this commander's offense come to life like we kind of saw them progress over the next couple of weeks, like having more than just, you know, kind of the cliff Kingsbury horizontal raid system that, you know, we saw against Tampa Bay. And that's, I think the primary worry is that if that comes back, which it occasionally has reared its head throughout the season, then I mean, the commanders are going to lose by a lot, but I think that they've kind of progressed from that. I think they're a little bit better. We saw that, I mean, the second matchup for them against the, uh, the Eagles, you know, went really well for them.

Whereas the first one was, you know, again, not as appealing. Like I think they're kind of just figuring things out. So, uh, I'm, I'm confident that there'll be points either way. I think that the bucks can score plenty on this commander's team, uh, regardless. So, I mean, but the, with the addition of Bucky Irving is incredible. Like they go from one of the worst running teams in the league to the best running teams in the league because they have a running back who's just an absolute dog. I mean, this guy's great. He's so good.

You bet on his longest rush, like basically every week. And it just keeps hitting. It's not quite as, it's not the Jameer Gibbs free ATM longest rush one, but pretty close. Been pretty close. And they're hanging his line routinely, you know, two, three yards shy of where they're hanging the Gibbs line. Now, again,

he's going over it with like, you know, no issue. So it doesn't really matter. So we can continue to push the Bucky line higher too, but I think it helps them for sure. I think that, you know,

they become a little bit less one dimensional. Baker's been playing so well too. Like I think points is probably a good side. Like you said, in the right side of, you know, 51, probably, probably a good side like you said in the right side of you know 51 probably probably a good luck if if the commanders show up otherwise i think there is a chance where tampa bay and again like i give them credit for the you know playing harder schedule they lost most of those games to be fair i mean they did go into detroit and win right at the time felt like wow what a weird weird game and then they go back home and the broncos beat them and i was like what the heck

but the broncos ended up being a team that we didn't expect and then they they beat philly uh which is really kind of surprising they played the ravens pretty tight though they lost a lot of points in that game uh kept the niners at the time who were you know not completely decimated that was i think the first cmc game that was 23 20 game was nice and nice and close um absolutely curb stomped the chargers in la then go the next weekend like lay an egg in dallas so like we've seen some jekyll and hyde stuff from from tampa bay too i just think they're more battle tested expert baker in these moments it's experienced so tampa three is the line i like

but i think you're overplayed probably the best way and i think there are props i mean we played the uh jane daniels rushing prop uh yesterday i mean i absolutely i absolutely love that um ladders like i just don't i mean i just don't i'm gonna jinx a bet i just don't think he plays a full game and goes under. That's kind of it. Like, I feel like that unless he gets hurt, we're, you know,

he's, he's got to run for a North of 45, 46 yards in that game. Yeah. I mean, we're, we're getting closer to 50 at this point. I still think it's good.

I think when we talked about initially, I think 49, 50 was still a buy point for us. So yeah, I like the over there for sure. I mean, there's some concern about his leg soreness, but I, I mean, I'm some concern about his leg soreness,

but I mean, I'm not concerned about that at all, really, to be honest. They just pulled him because he was getting whacked and they were getting home to him and they knew that he was going to need to run a ton to keep them in that game. That didn't really matter. So I think Dan Quinn was like, whatever, we don't need to do this anymore.

He's a 23, 24-year-old kid. He's leg soreness. It's not my age with leg soreness. You need to be really worried if I got leg soreness for me to get up and down the stairs. You don't have to worry about this guy running around. He'll be fine. So put some icy hot on it. You'll be good to go, buddy.

Yeah. Also, last note on them. Jalen McMillan has played significantly better. He's finally coming into his own. Early in the season, I bet took an alt on him when there was like some people that were like randomly out and i mean my god this guy couldn't like he had like two catches like he looked like i was like this guy's not gonna he's gonna be in the cfl by the next season like this is like like it was one of the craziest things i've ever seen in my life couldn't get on the same page it was nuts uh but turn it around

he's playing really well so that's good to see yeah running him out of the slot it's a really nice matchup for uh you know some different props maybe because that is probably the softest way to attack this washington secondary and then they move mikey sanders still on the outside with marshall and latimore and get the latimore evans combo um love it yeah but in the slot is a nice spot for uh for for McMillan this week. All right, Monday night, last game on the board, Vikings-Rams. This one really surprises me. 47.5, 48 is the total here.

Vikings, short favorites here on the road. This is a spot where the Vikings did lose early in the season. If you remember, there was that Sam Darnold face mask, no call late in that attempted fourth quarter comeback drive there. But I don't know if there's like a lot of reason to see bias baked into this line, Connor, what are your thoughts on Vikings ramps? Yeah, I kind of agree. I mean, to me, it feels like the Vikings have been just like an awesome team all season.

And then they have one game where they just like, I mean, completely shit the bed national TV. And now we're just like, even against the Rams team that I don't know. I mean, they, they have played well from time to time. They're not a team that you, you know, the, the cliches are not a team you want to see in the playoffs. And I think that there's stuff, there's probably some truth to that to be honest,

considering Stafford Puka cup can just like overcome basically any team randomly on any given day. But like from a full team perspective and like the full body of work, I would have thought this would be closer to three, you know, just like for the Vikings. So I don't know. I thought that was pretty interesting. Like, you know, my my lean here would be Minnesota. I guess, you know, the issue would be is that it wasn't just like how the Vikings like face planted. It was that Detroit played super aggressively and got home to Darnold and was like basically making him see ghosts again for the first time since, you know, that new England game. And now you get another opportunity here where the Rams can get pressure from time to time. And I would assume we're going to try and make his life difficult similarly. So I don't know.

I mean, like, I think Minnesota, I think the best course of action is to ignore last week and bet Minnesota. But I'm curious where your head's at. I think Minnesota's the best bet on the board this week. I don't really understand it with the Rams. I think the defense is suspect. I think people just remember the 44-42 win against the Bills that happened in early December,

and they just forgot everything else around and after from the Rams. Sometimes this offense stalls out, and it's like pretty meh. They went 19-9 in the Meadowlands against the Jets, 13 points next week against the Cardinals, so not strong defenses. Then the next week they lose at home. I mean, that didn't matter with the Seahawks game. But the Niners game was in weather and conditions, sure.

Barely beat the Saints the week before the Bills game. Got absolutely crushed by Philadelphia the week before. Barely beat New England in New England. The Pats had a chance to win that game. Miami went into LA and won. I don't know. It's just sometimes times where this team on paper yeah stafford's a veteran you have the stafford mcveigh if you're really good about that but it's a really balanced really good viking scene that can beat you in a number of ways and detroit's i think an awesome football team that's a tough

environment to go into and And they just big plays. And all of a sudden forces you to play with one hand tie behind your back. I don't think the Rams are going to do that here. Minnesota is really hard to run the football on and really no one's really done it except Jameer Gibbs. So like, I think we're going to have a number of times in the next five years where Gibbs is an outlier in the situations.

I don't necessarily think Kyron Williams who like for a guy who puts up some serious numbers has like no explosive runs. He like his like explosive rush rate is like less than 2%. I think on the season, they just grind you down and it's a hard team to run the football against. So, and it's kind of one sided. It's not even like it was Puka and Cooper Cup.

Like, I don't know what's going on with Cooper Cup. It feels like it's just Puka right now. So, I don't know. I just think the Vikings are significantly better. I feel like this would be three, three and a half if that game was even somewhat close. Even if the Vikings lose and it was close, it's probably at least three.

I don't know. Less than three in Minnesota feels like the play for me if you just kind of block out the noise. So I like it quite a bit. I already – I bet it at two and a half, and I feel okay. I thought it was going to go to three, but I've lost the best of the number. Still on the right side of key numbers and stuff, but, yeah, I think Minnesota's the right side.

I like it. I mean, with Kyron, like you're telling me that undersized fifth-round draft pick is not all that good. I mean, you know, I mean, he's great in terms of fantasy. He compiles a lot of stats. His usage is wild. Is he that good of a player? No, he's not cutting it back and like, you know,

turn it on the jets for like 40 yards, like Jameer Gibbs is. And just like almost never. Yeah. Do you remember when we were sitting at that bar over the summer and I was in the middle of fantasy draft and we're debating between picking like i don't remember who it was it was like jameer gibbs or like drake london or something like that and silva's like jameer gibbs is like jamal charles and i was like no he's not and he's like no like he is like i promise and i was like all right we

didn't even pick we actually didn't pick jameer gibbs I didn't pick someone else, but just like that stuck with me. Cause I was like, ever since then, I've kind of viewed him like, Oh, this is just Jamal Charles. And he's just been Jamal Charles. Cause he's like,

yeah. And now they're giving him like way more work and like, well, yeah, it's electric. It's, it's awesome. It's awesome.

Yeah. It's, that was the case against him in fantasy. So you're, you know, to your point, you're still getting, you're,

you're trying to pay first round freight for a guy getting maybe 12 to 14 touches with david montgomery healthy well we've seen this like jailbreak version with you know very little craig reynolds and a ton of like passing game work and spike and carries has been been pretty pretty awesome to watch he's been he's been really good so yeah i'm looking they lost blake quorum who actually had a little bit of juice who they were mixing in a little bit so like i don't know it seems to be like kairi can handle 25 plus carries but he's not gonna get more explosive uh unless he's getting beat down right so i don't know i i like minnesota quite a bit um yes the rams can get Yes, that was the problem last week.

It was a heavy, heavy, heavy blitz situation. They blitzed on 67% of the drawbacks Detroit did last week. Just the highest rate that any team blitzed in any game all season long. And it doesn't seem to be something the Rams want to do that much. But maybe they try to replicate that game plan. I think maybe Minnesota is more prepared for it this week. So, yeah, Minnesota, less than three, I think, is the play. Love it.

All right. Good stuff, as always. Appreciate it, our friends over at ProfitX. Again, check that out. If you have any questions, hit us up directly. Again, peer versus peer. You can see here, better prices, less juice. Losers pay winners.

Great place to play and available in over 40 states. So don't be shy. Reach out if you have any questions and get set up over there. Very, very, very easy to play. We will be back on Friday, Prop Drop Show. Myself, Connor, and Hyslop. The board's out. The board's pretty hefty.

So sometimes we're waiting for stuff on a Friday, hoping that we can keep some stuff live that we can give out fresh on Friday at this point because especially Fandle, jump the gun. Monday afternoon, full board for Fandle. So I just want to say thank you. I'd rather have that than not. So it's pretty cool to see. I love it.

I mean, I'm probably just going to go back and release a prop after this right after this to be honest i got one that i've written down and then there's a couple more that i have waiting and you know this is just like initial glance stuff too like i gotta like do even more research and dive deeper and sure we'll find a couple more so it's gonna be a good weekend some good games and obviously our friday show will be a lot of fun as always too yeah come back for that there's uh four four bets on the youtube channel move the line where we listen to podcasts again friday 3 p.m eastern for prop drop show we'll be back for that for connor i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody