Move The Line - The ULTIMATE Wild Card NFL BETTING GUIDE: Best BETS, Odds & Predictions!

Episode Date: January 10, 2024

Unleash your betting potential with our ULTIMATE Wild Card NFL BETTING GUIDE! Dive into expert insights on the best BETS, latest Odds, and accurate Predictions for an exciting NFL Wild Card week. Featuring a special focus on the Cleveland Browns, this is your go-to source for smart, informed NFL betting picks and strategies. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to the game, get ready to amplify your NFL betting experience. Don't miss out on valuable tips and analysis.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansSign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduelFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  / movethelinenfl  Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  / rynoonan  Follow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  / sharpclarkenfl  Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. Ryan Newton joins here, as always, by my friends to talk size totals in the best matchups all the matchups super wild card weekend connor allen what's going on buddy not much feels good to be back in the studio hanging out um you know talking here not dealing with you know pool jazzercise going on in the background or you know potentially you know the maids coming in dropping off some margaritas but it's good to be back the weather is absolute horseshit though i know what a tough life right you know it's uh so sorry that that happened to you man i know okay i'm recovering uh i mean this weather's helping zero degrees uh it can't get much better than this you know

yeah it's gonna be cold in the Midwest this weekend. Talk about that here on the show. A game happening there. Obviously, here in the spot, as always, Sharp Clark. What's going on, my friend? Not much. Every year, my friends from Texas come visit me in Denver in January. And so it's going to be a cold one this year.

I'm like, bring your coats. We don't have coats. So we'll see what happens. We do our best here. We talk about all the games. Obviously we only have six this week. We'll continue to be here every Wednesday, 4 p.m.

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the best content and tools in the industry here at 444. Take a second to make sure you hit the thumbs up or comment in the video. Let us know what your favorite bet is here for Super Wild Card Weekend. We appreciate that very much. If you want to talk props,

we can do that on Friday afternoon afternoon prop drop show same channel uh same podcast feed that is on friday we're typically 3 p.m eastern we might have to move that around uh slop john high slop is our prop guy that jumps in with connor and i on fridays uh he is on vacation not quite sure if we'll have the same spot but again if you are subscribed you won't miss it. We'll tweet that out so you'll be able to have all that information as soon as we have it there as well. You can still scoop up a betting subscription. Obviously, we're rounding out to the end of the year.

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for the season so all that here is in the show notes as well if you like to bet golf i'm i'm i have no pride i'm a shill for the golf product that we do as well. If you like to bet golf, I'm, I'm, I have no pride. I'm a shill for the golf product that we do as well. You can go over to betsportsgolf.com. You can find out some great ways to get that access for very cheap. We are now picking up on the golf side as well. Jump in my DMS. If you want more information on that great sport to bet on. All right, gentlemen, six games. We've games we got three days we got a little bit on saturday uh we got you know people are mad that you get the saturday peacock only game which i think is interesting this week too uh and then you get the monday night capper uh with the eagles

and uh buccaneers but let's get started here um and uh let's talk browns and texans first game of the week browns a two 2.5 point favorite here. Borrella minus 115 or higher in most spots. Briefly touched 3 on Monday. It was an immediate buyback there and it's held at 2.5 cents total. At 44.5, it's a rematch from Christmas Eve. Browns close there as a

3 point favorite as the game in Amari Cooper went absolutely bananas. Game that Connor had the ladders and the props there and took that one to the moon. Browns won 36-22. Houston scored a couple of garbage touchdowns late to make it closer. But again, no C.J. Stroud in that one for the Texans. So it's almost like just none of it really matters.

Both teams are also missing some key defenders on the defensive side as well. Most of you, they're already returned or should be returning this week. So very much a different game, even though it was recent than what we saw just a couple of weeks ago. Clark, let's get started with Texans and Browns. Yeah. So I think the primary thing that my mind has kind of gone to in this game is that the Browns defense is just a little bit overrated.

And I understand that they're very good, but a very good defense can be overrated. They've put up really good numbers for good reason. They are well coached. They have players at every level that can make plays. And I really like them. But if you look at the way the metrics have fallen, and a lot of people cite things like, well, their home and away splits are significant. They've been much better at home than on the road. It's not really so much about, well, we're playing at home, so we're going to be better. That's not really the important thing. It's the matchups they've had. So some of these matchups at home, they played in week one,

they played Joe Burrow and the Bengals in that bad weather game where Burrow had a calf injury and couldn't move. So he was just throwing the ball from like a stationary spot the whole game. Throw that game out. You know, Tennessee, Ryan Tannehill on a banged up Titans offensive line did nothing against them. When they played Baltimore, Lamar Jackson was okay, pretty decent. When they played the Niners, that was a bad weather game for brock purdy in which cmc d and trent williams all got hurt uh in the game and we've seen that purdy is especially sensitive to one losing those guys and two playing good defenses so them underperforming was somewhat

predictable you know clayton tune one of the worst quarterbacks that ever started a game this year for Arizona, two games against Kenny Pickett. They had a game against Trevor Simeon and the Jets. And when you look at the games that they played against somewhat decent quarterbacks, they've been beatable. Not excellent, but like Stafford, Geno Smith, Russell Wilson even,

all these guys did fairly well against the Browns defense. And I put CJ Stroud at probably the very top of that range of quarterbacks that they faced. I'm not worried about C.J. Stroud's first playoff game as a rookie. He's shown poise time and time again all year, and he has the mental game on display every week. If you watch him, you see it. I'm not worried about some kind of flop in the playoffs just because he's a rookie. So, yeah, I think the Texans offense will have some success here. The problem is Joe Flacco has also had some success.

He's been streaky, but he's throwing the ball downfield and putting it in places where his guys can make plays. And so that's key. They're going to be playing in a dome. So those deep throws are going to work. Amari Cooper looks healthy. But I still think that at home with a better quarterback, I think the Texans are the side, even as small underdogs. And so that's where I'm leaning in this game. Yeah, two and a half is an interesting line. I'm not surprised that we get the buyback at three. Connor, what are your thoughts on this one? It's really tough because Clark touched on

it a little bit, but just the deep ball and the willingness to throw deep here for the Browns is really unique. So we saw in the last game here, Houston 25th and explosive pass rate allowed. And we saw them just to consistently expose them deep. I think that's a massive issue here too. We also saw the Houston Texans running game last week show a little bit more cracks than normal. I think that a lot of that had to do with Indianapolis, just running the ball a little bit more creatively as you know, the Texas run events have been better, are been really good all season until then basically. But I mean, I just keep going back to, we know Flacco, their password of expectation spiked massively ever since he took over. He,

we know he wants to push the ball downfield. And so I, I struggle to think like, okay, they're going to kind of shut this team down. Now I do think that the Texans are going to find some success offensively. There are some unique splits with CJ Stroud. We touched on it last week against the Colts, how he's in much better against cover three, much better against zone, you know, his splits against man, not quite as good. And, you know, I think that's a little bit concerning,

especially when you're shorthanded receiver wise. So like if they had tank Dell, if they had Nico Collins, they had kind of that whole, you know, allotment there would be good. Now we're looking at just probably Nico Collins, Noah Brown, TBD, Robert Woods, TBD. You know, like I think that they can get by with that. I think CJ Stroud is good enough to get by with that. So that's kind of what has been leaning over here, like primarily on the basis that I think Cleveland can attack the ball downfield.

And I think you still have some success keeping up and the splits won't be as dramatic as they've been all season. But, yeah, I think probably my favorite spot here would be the over because I think the spread is about right. I think two and a half, three is about right here because the Browns just, in my opinion, have a pretty significant advantage there. Yeah, I also partially think, too, because both teams, I think, will struggle to run the ball

a little bit these are two of the top uh run defenses and they you've been able to gash and take advantage against the browns defense at times make some splash plays we've seen that there's been some some stuff that clark kind of laid out there in terms of the opponent that i think is uh is interesting in that too so yeah the one thing that that was concerning a little bit to me in watching that game on Saturday night with the Texans was that like Stroud was cooking a little bit and they still seem to beFF, you attach him to analytics friendly and you attach him to analytics friendly means past the football and early downs. We didn't necessarily see that. We haven't really seen that as much. So I wonder what that was.

I wonder if that was game plan specific. Teams tend to run and skew pretty run heavily on the Colts on the season, which is interesting. So maybe it was something in the game plan that they saw that teams have seen on the Colts on the season, which is interesting. So maybe it was something in the game plan that they saw that, that teams have seen on the season. You know, but I also think like at this point, we've seen enough from Stroud, let him cook a little bit, even though they're limited in terms of, you know, no tangs L.

We don't have maybe the top five, 10 percentile ceiling outcome from a passing standpoint that they would have had if they were healthy. But I think letting the rookie kind of do his thing, putting the ball in his hands, I think is is their best the best path to success here obviously i feel the same way with uh with what's going on on the brown side but yeah i i think that the texans are an interesting teaser leg at two and a half um and i would kind of lean over there as well uh if you happen to get a three i think that would have been lovely but yeah probably texans are

nothing for me at this point kind of do my look Nuna what's the average plays in a game like do you know like how much like a normal play volume is in a game so the the Browns lead the league uh they have all season they've actually maintained and even continue to pull that up a little bit with Flacco which I think is very interesting so you know you're typically sitting around like low 60s, I'd say 62, 63. The Browns all season long have been like the low 70s in place per game. The Texans are like middle of the pack around like right around 62, 63. Yeah.

So the last time these teams met, I think I counted over 140 total plays between the two teams combined, which seemed abnormally high, you know, relative. And I thought that was an interesting point as well. And I was wondering if that will transfer over here, especially with Stroud. I mean, that was with Davis Mills, Case Keenum. So yeah, that's a good point. Yeah. So, I mean, obviously we know just more passing leads to that too, right?

You know, the passing volume clock stops on incompletions. Those things can lead to more snaps versus just a handoff that stays in balance, continues to move the clock too. So passing volume obviously helps play volume so yeah i'd say i think the average nfl game is right around like 128 per game combined so something that gets into the 140s is on the higher side for sure all right uh next we have uh the cold one we're talking about real quick you have the dolphins on the road in kansas city against the chiefs. We've had a bit of movement here. We're up from three and a half and open out to Kansas City minus four.

DraftKings is out to Kansas City minus four and a half and minus 108. So noteworthy if you have a little bit of a lean there. Total has bounced around a little bit as well. FanDuel at 44 and a half. Most other shops looking like 44 flats. So again, that's a key number, 44. So not an insignificant half point. Again, if you have a lean,

this is a rematch from early November back in Germany. Fairly uninspiring performance there. 21-14 win for the Chiefs. We were hoping for some offensive fireworks. We're like, oh man, like, you know, DFS guys, or this is on, it should be on the main slate. At this point, maybe we're still daydreaming about the chiefs offense being something that it's not both quarterbacks failed the top 200 yards passing chief defense basically dared the miami dolphins

to run the football they really didn't take them up on it when they did they had some success miami abysmal on third downs uh three for 12 on third downs in that game. They averaged just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Mahomes was not much better. They needed a defensive touchdown. Trent McDuffie had a strip. Tyreek, Mike Edwards scooped that up and took it back for a score. Not a great game. I don't know what to expect.

And again, we've talked about weather. We have weather issues, obviously, this time of year and what matters and what doesn't. Connor, I don't really remember where like freezing cold. And I go like cold is cold. And like, you know,

you're playing playoff football. Oftentimes you're going to have to play some games in the cold. This looks to be really problematic. Especially when you have a scenario where like, you know, like these guys aren't all from Florida, but at this point they spend a lot of time in Florida. I have a friend who I grew up with in New Hampshire. He lives down in Atlanta. Now he is thin blood. He does that. You get him in the cold now,

40 degrees. He's bundled up with a coat. Like those things I think do matter how it relates to handicapping the football game though. Um, love to get your thoughts here. It's going to be cold. Yeah. I mean, we're looking at temperatures as low as like, you know, it's going to be zero degrees with the wind chill, potentially negatives, like, you know, negative 10 at one point. And how that really impacts the game is tough because there's not expected to be like a ton of wind and there's not expected to be like a ton of precipitation or anything.

So those are the things that normally would impact the game. So I don't know. I kind of struggle and think that maybe there won't be a massive impact. I think the bigger impact is just going to be the dolphins injuries, which right now their defense is just, I mean, every week it's someone new coming in, coming out. And so like, it's really tough for me to put a ton of stock into betting a game like this, because I just don't know what iteration of the dolphins defense we're getting the dolphins offense to like with waddle, maybe playing, maybe not playing. I think he's turning towards playing at this point. Um, you know, a Chan and a bigger role, like it's going to rely

a lot on McDaniel to kind of like, you know, cook up some stuff here for this Dolphins offense, I think. So for me, it kind of just is like a stay away. Uh, and which is crazy to say in a game that preseason we would have been like, Oh, this game is like, you know, 50 point total going to be awesome and everything. And since then we've just kind of seen the Dolphins defense start to get better, but now have a ton of injuries. And then the Kansas City Chiefs offense never really truly find its rhythm offensively. And then defensively started really strong, had a couple of blips and now are, you know, fine, but also in the playoffs too, we've seen the Kansas City Chiefs defense in years past play terrible, like all year, be one of the worst and, you know, run defense,

be one of the worst and pass defense from time to time, and then come in and play the top five level. So it's one of those things where maybe the under, I guess, is the right call, but I don't think it would necessarily be specifically weather related. So for me, it's just a big stay away because there's like question marks, I think on both sides of the ball for me. You know, it's, it's, it's a really, really tough one. I think the handicap. One thing that's really interesting here, Clark, is we know at this point we're not waiting for something that the Chiefs haven't showed us all season. They're just not that team offensively.

It doesn't mean that they can't be good. It doesn't mean that they can't win. They just aren't that team. Mahomes is historically just one of the toughest quarterbacks to sack. You can get pressure on him, and this offensive line has allowed pressure at a higher rate than normal. He just doesn't go down. The problem for Miami is they have been absolutely decimated at edge rusher. I mean, we lost Jalen Phillips early in the season, their best pass rusher. Bradley Chubb has been playing terrific football. He goes down in that game late against

Baltimore. Andrew Van Ginkle, who has been the replacement and kind of a swing guy and has had some great games this season, he is now on IR as well. So the fact that they are going to really struggle in this game to get pressure, they're going to have to generate pressure, obviously second level pressure. It's not going to come necessarily from just one-on-one edge rushers. He was really hard to pressure up the middle. That's kind of the strength of their offensive line. Even with all the weaknesses of the Chiefs offensively, having him a homes in a spot where he's really hard to take down

anyway, and you're probably going to get less pressure. That's kind of tough for me, especially with some of the other injuries. What are your thoughts here? Yeah, I think you nailed the primary angle in this game that whenever you have a team with a cluster injury, you have to ask yourself what the other team does against that unit, you know, right. So if you're going against a team that plays really good man defense in the secondary and the offense has a cluster injury at receiver, like you're not going to be able to throw the ball downfield, like just no one will be open. Um, and I think that's applying here is Miami's pass rush is absolutely decimated. Every edge rusher on the roster basically is done. Um, and you're going

against Patrick Mahomes. The only way to stop Patrick Mahomes is, well, other than his receivers dropping the ball, is to get pressure, natural pressure on him without blitzing. Like that has always been the key to stopping. That's what the Raiders did in that game that they frustrated the crap out of Patrick Mahomes because they were getting pressure with their front four. I don't think the Dolphins have the horses to do that here. I think the Chiefs offensive line wins that battle. And I think it's going to be really, really tough for the Dolphins to succeed. I'm not as concerned about the Chiefs offense as I think most people are.

Like I look at a lot of the, you know, I watch every snap for every game and I'm grading them and they're still tied for second as the second best offense in the NFL, in my opinion. So Patrick Mahomes makes a big difference to that. Like he turns negative plays into positive plays. And so I think that's going to be the key here. And we've seen him time and time again, turn it on the playoffs. And I don't think there's reason to expect something drastically different just because his receivers aren't as good. They'll

figure it out. They figured it out last, last year. The question is, can Miami's offense keep up? And I think, I think that I think that's the big question. If Jalen Waddell plays, that matters. If he's out and it's just Tyree Kill and LeJarrius Sneed plays and is active, I think it's gonna be really tough sliding for the Dolphins. They now have a negative 92 point differential against playoff teams this year.

Tua Tagovailoa has been susceptible to splits based on the quality of defense's face. That's part of the reason why he struggled the first time he played the chiefs. He's just not good enough to overcome a defense that can stop his fastball, his fastball being dropping back and getting the ball out quick to Tyreek Hill or whoever it is that's open over the middle.

And we've seen defenses like the bills last, last week close that off. And he just, it's like he starts panicking and throws wildly inaccurate passes. And so if the chiefs can can make tua make mistakes which i think they can then i think this could be potentially one-way action on the chiefs um so i know the the spread is kind of inflating but i think that's justified based on all these and then finally there's some some intangibles kind of

stacking up like in addition to those injuries they're having to come into you know super cold weather like when when you're hurt and you're trying to nurse people back from health, playing in cold is not helpful. It is, it is harmful. And then they played late Sunday night. They had to play on a short week off a night game on Saturday against the chiefs team that rested most of their best players last week because they had everything locked up. So everything kind of favors the chiefs here. So I understand why kind of favors the chiefs here. So I understand why everyone is on the chiefs, but I think it's for good reason.

And I think that's why we're seeing the spread tick up. I don't think it has much more room to run. Like I don't think it gets up to six. I think there'd be way too much interest in Miami at that price. But I do, but I do agree with the movement up and I bet it at three and a half. And I think I probably would still bet it at four and a half, although a smaller bet.

Cause I just, I think you need exposure to the chiefs there in some way. Yeah. The interesting thing is like, we're talking about clusters on the defensive side and especially at edge rusher secondaries beat up, you know, Deshaun Elliott at safety.

Javon Holland came back last week, limited snaps. He's not in great shape. We know Xavier Howard is out. That means a whole lot of Eli Apple. It's just, it's, it's messed up on both sides too,

right? You have both running backs dinged up. You know, you have a couple of offensive linemen, you know, I can Berg and Armstrong who just have not been, or instead of just not been healthy all season. That's kind of the thing.

And that's like what happened in the first game. It's not even that they like dared them to run. That's just kind of how the chiefs have been playing defense all season long. They are top three in past D EPA allowed up there with the Ravens and the Browns. They're 27th in rush D DVOA. They're kind of, we'll let you do that a little bit, knowing that just kind of the inefficient way to move the football. And unfortunately with the injuries of the offensive line and at running back, the Dolphins aren't really equipped to like, just kind of lean into it and say, Hey, you know what, this is what we're going to do today. Cause this is what you're going

to give us and we can do it i just think they're going to have to lean on to it to move the football to keep up here and that's chiefs or nothing for me for sure for obviously four to four and a half leave yourself out with the push with you know four sometimes being uh you know mattering a little bit but yeah i kind of agree with clark i mean you got a three and a half i think you're probably feeling pretty good we convince you at all connor to get on the chiefs. Yeah, I think so. I mean, like we're looking at minus four on FanDuel. It's just like one of those things where, well, one, I love the dolphins. I just always have. I want to back them. Like, you know, if everyone is healthy, obviously

I would love this number here for the dolphins, but then I think the spread would probably be three. You know, I think if everyone was healthy, maybe even a two and a half year. And so, yeah, I just can't back it because like the, in my mind, the only way that Miami pulls us off or covers is like Vic Fangio reaching

deep in his bag and somehow just basically dropping like eight guys into coverage, like every play and somehow like confusing my homes, which again, very low chance of that happening. And then same with on the other side, like somehow McDaniel pulling together a game plan with a beat up offensive line that he can execute against the chief. So like, it just seems like the possibilities of how they get there are really slim. So yeah, minus four, I think it's probably, probably look on the chiefs. My biggest concern as a chiefs better is better is that they struggle in the red zone.

They've had that happen to them a few times this year where they move the ball down the field and then they can't punch it in. You're taking three points each time against Miami. I don't think you're going to cover four. So that's my biggest concern. Yeah, the Chiefs have been kind of middle of the pack, which is not where Mahomes typically is. Their 17th in red zone scoring percentage on the season

is not a uh typical patrick mahomes metric there so um yeah that does definitely matter for sure all right next is uh the first of the uh sunday games we have the steelers on the road against the bills there were eight and eight and a half available here at open quickly we've moved out to buffalo minus 10 touch nine and a half. We've got a little bit of a buyback. Tens have been held holding steady here the past couple of days. Total is plummeted though. Since we're looking at a pretty bleak weather report for Sunday afternoon,

Western New York, windy and snowy throughout. Total is down from 41 and a half at open 36, 36 and a half's are out there now. An absolutely wild ride for this bills team this season even on sunday night we got like the full josh allen car wash experience red zone turnovers highlight plays picks fumbles the whole thing all in one uh but they won the division stole that from a little bit of us we you know we had connor and i had some miami to win the division i just wanted the bills in the playoffs even though we had that locked into the game but uh good for them and now

they are hosting a beat-up steelers team that they deserve their kudos as well they're just not very good but again like tomlin does it again it's just hard to be really bullish on a team that is going to go out without their best player you know tj walk got injured uh they lost consecutive home games in december to the patriots and the cardinals uh they are intentionally willfully starting mason rudolph a quarterback in a road playoff game again like their other options aren't great either so it's like you know it is what it is uh but you know bills here by a big number clark what are your thoughts on uh on our billsills still being alive? I get why they're starting Mason Rudolph. You win three games heading in and you make the playoffs that you weren't going to make. You

got to give him that start, but he's not the best quarterback on the roster. He's not. They played in those three games two of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL and the Ravens team benching all their starters. They're a team that has to run the ball to succeed. So of course they looked good in those three games, but they would have won those games with Kenny Pickett too, because they would have run the ball just as well with Kenny Pickett, handing it off instead of Mason Rudolph.

And I know there were some deep shots too, that Rudolph had, but those were set up by consistently getting the run game working and getting that single courage for Kenny Pickett for George Pickens. Anyway, here, they're gonna have to do it again, they're gonna have to run the ball, they're gonna have to win in the trenches, they're gonna have to move the ball on the ground, shorten the game, reduce the number of possessions, the weather's not gonna really let them have it down for a passing attack anyway. And I think this is just a trench warfare battle. And so I think that that sort of favors the Steelers. But, you know,

I'm not making the bet because, you know, one, I want to fade the Steelers, but I'm not making the bet because one, I want to fade the Steelers. I want to fade Mason Rudolph. I think they're completely, they have no business being in the playoffs. They're just not a good team. They're overrated because of the virtue of the fact they faced those really bad run defenses that made them look good. And two, I think about what happened in the Bills-Cowboys game a few weeks ago. That game was entirely trench warfare, and the Bills absolutely dominated that game from start to finish against a very, very good Cowboys offensive line and a very good Cowboys defensive line. Now, the Steelers defensive line is playing without TJ Watt. The offensive line's been playing well, but I think

the Bills defense is a little bit underrated, and I think without any threat to pass, I think they can really load up that box and stop the run, and if they do that, I don't see what Pittsburgh's, you know, option B is. So this is a game where a shutout is on the table for the Bills defense. It won't take too much for the Bills to win, but covering 10 is just too much for me to get involved. So this is a pass for me. I think the spread's right. The total's crashed, which is right. So I'm just sort of saying, well done, market. You figured it out. And then enjoying the game and hoping the bills advance for my bills to bowl ticket.

Sounds like you got a little room for a Steelers team total under with that shutout statement. But yeah, I don't disagree with a lot of it. There's not a lot of upside here. Old Thunder Steelers, three and a half points or something. Yeah. Yeah. I like it. Yeah. yeah connor where you at here yeah i think just uh you know further quantify the weather here specifically like what we're looking at right now is wind speeds consistently in the 20 to 25 miles per hour range between which we know matters um you know we've

anything after 15 miles per hour it starts to matter 20 plus miles per hour range, which we, which we know matters. Um, you know, we've anything after 15 miles per hour, it starts to matter 20 plus miles per hour, definitely matters on deep throws. And then, uh, you know, Gus up to 40 to 50 miles per hour, which absolutely impacts deep throws. I mean, you're talking about, he throws the ball into a gust and I mean, the ball is just going to die. Uh, and so like deep throwing long field goals, both very much, you know, in danger of this game. And so beyond that, you're looking at potential snow flurries. You're looking at weather in the 20 degrees. So it's going to be cold, super windy, a little bit of snow. And you're basically telling teams that have already basically committed to running the ball a bunch,

hey, you should probably run the ball because throwing is not going to be doing very much here. So I think you're pushing two teams that already want to run the ball here to do more. So more of that. Um, I kind of lean towards the under here because I mean, this bill's defense has got a lot healthier in the last couple of weeks. Um, you know, they got Daquan Jones back as well. Like it's their defensive line could be a little bit better. Their run defense plays well here. I mean, I think like you said, like all thunders very much in play. Um, I think that the bills will have a decent amount of success running the ball as well. Uh, you know, I played James cook over 14 and a half carries prior to much in play. I think that the bills will have a decent amount of success running the ball as well. You know, I played James cook over 14 and a half carries prior to come onto this.

I thought that was just at least one, maybe two carries too low, given what we're going to see here from this bills team. If I had to pick a side, honestly, I'd pick Steelers plus 10 because I, again, I just think that this is going to be a very not close game,

but just kind of like a, you know, run grinded out type of game here where maybe the Steelers get a field goal or two, and maybe the bills don't you know blow the doors off here but I think the under still even a 36 is just a little bit high considering what I think we're gonna see here uh on fanatics they let you do this if you can get down anything on fanatics you can get a Steelers team total lowest number they have available is under four and a half at plus 550. That's great.

DraftKings has team bands and it's zero to 10 is plus 100. That's that's stupid. What? Yeah, it's stupid. It's like why? DraftKings has been on some shit lately, man. I mean, like the Super Bowl anytime touchdown odds. Those were absolutely outrageous too.

To win with a shutout 10-1 for the Bills, that's just, that's not great. All right. Predatory behavior today too, DraftKings. Again, shout out FanDuel. Like, you can't I guess you can because you did. Like, if you try to push the bat through, you got to take something on the bat. Like, I don't care

if you can take 15 cents. It's predatory behavior for you to to take something on the bet. Like, I don't care if you can take 15 cents, it's predatory behavior for you to not take the bet, gut me out to get nothing, take the bet off the board and move the line. You're using my information for free to then move the line. That is predatory behavior and it's shit. Stop doing it. I mean, you're not going to because no one's holding you accountable for doing it. So you're going to keep doing it. I mean, you're not going to, because no one's holding you accountable for doing it. So you're going to keep doing it, but it's, it's absolutely garbage and feels like it should be against whatever the

rules are. That feels against the rules. That is, that is not cool. Also, they took away. I'd noticed this just now, since I came back from Mexico,

they took away the max wager thing. At least mine, mine is, is you're that way too. So they brought it, they put it on there where you could start typing in the number like FanDuel does. And it would give you a max wager and tell you how much, mine is, is you're that way too. So they brought it, they put it on there where you could start typing the number like fan dual does. And it would give you a max wager and tell you how much you could bet,

which I was like, Oh, this is great. This is what I've been waiting for forever. And they got rid of it. It's like, Oh God, it's horrible.

It's terrible. Only redeeming thing you've done. You took it away. So, so like, you know, we'll have a couple of things around these two teams here briefly uh the Steelers real quick like we'll have the offseason to talk about it but like

you're kind of in purgatory from like the quarterback position how can you go back to pick it at this point you really can't now you're in the playoffs like it's really hard you're not in this position to you know sink draft resources in the position you're going to have to do something in the free agent market or roll out a season with mason rudolph or try to sell your fan base on a pick it just wasn't healthy i don't know what that looks like that's not fun um the bills like we want to be biased in the bills we have you know super bowl bets in the bills and maybe there's plenty of better like all-around football but like joe brady at the offensive coordinator position you know we made the change with ken dorsey he's getting a lot of credit for some of the change and they've been like just a little bit worse and everything across the board

a lot of key statistics since he's taken over now they're playing a little more balanced football they're getting a little bit more healthy uh on the defensive side of the ball but like yards per play points per drive success rates ep EPA per drive. They're all down massively. I mean, EPA per drive is like half of what it was under Ken Dorsey. Then again, like it's just for this team, it basically is can they play defense better than they were early in the year? And can Josh Allen not turn the football over in bunches for them moving forward? But just interesting to see kind of how they evolve into being an actual Super Bowl contender more so than having to get past the Steelers.

So again, something you really can't find out ahead of time until it's happening. And hopefully, hey, teams get hot in the playoffs, and this team obviously is, I think we think, as equipped as any to go ahead and win this whole thing. So interesting to watch. All right, next, the Packers are on the road in Dallas against the Cowboys.

This opened at 7. We're now out to Dallas minus seven and a half. Although on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars, we are like minus 105. Total's been bet up from 49 at open. We're basically 50 and a half now across the board. We all like the Packers to make the playoffs in the preseason, so yay us.

But this is a big ask for a young team on the road against a team that's played really good football, especially at home this season. But, hey, the young team gets to cut their teeth a little bit and gets a taste of it here. Clark, I'll let you get started with your Super Bowl pick in the NFC at the preseason, Packers and Cowboys. Not giving up. Packers winning outright. Jordan Love is going to deliver the road victory in Dallas this weekend.

He has been phenomenal. And I think, like, you have to understand the road victory in Dallas this weekend. He has been phenomenal. And I think like you have to understand the process. Like if you're the Packers, this has been a process. You put Jordan Love in there. You've got no real weapons to speak of. You got a bunch of young guys. It's going to take a while. And if you look at the first, you know, eight weeks of the season dealing with a bunch of offensive injuries, like they were inconsistent. They were not good. But Love was making some deep plays. And so the thought was, okay,

well, let's see what happens. He's got a low success rate, high EPA. Let's see what happens when some of those don't connect. Well, since week nine, he is top three in the NFL,

all the NFL and success rate, EPA per play and PFF grade. He has been a legitimately top quarterback for a span of, you know, eight, nine, 10 weeks. And he's doing it with weapons that are just not that great. And his pocket presence, his like, the way that he is able to understand where the defender is without looking at the defender, the way he's able to shift his arm angle to make a throw, even in the face of pressure, like has enabled him to make these throws. And I think the offensive line is playing really well. I think the run game is playing really well. The Cowboys defense is frankly overrated. They've done most of the damage

against bad teams, kind of like the Browns. And if you look at all of the teams they've played that have a pulse on offense, they've all scored. I think, I don't know what about they've all scored. They've scored an average of at least 26 points against them. And so I think the Packers are going to score here. They're going to move the ball. They're also going to shorten the game. Like the Packers take forever when they run their offense. And so they march down the field. Like remember the Chiefs game,

the Chiefs literally got two offensive possessions in the first half because the Packers just chewed up the clock the entire time. And so when the Chiefs had to settle for field goals, it was 14-6 at halftime. So offense to win, and I think they have to be perfect on offense to cover the massive spread. And I think the Packers' defense, while huge questions abound for Joe Barry, they have played a little better since Jair Alexander came back and some other guys came back from injury. I think they got their swagger back, even though it was against two kind of mediocre offenses. So I think if they can just make a few plays here,

disrupt things just a little bit for this Cowboys offense at home, which I know is a big, it's a big ask that the Cowboys have been great. Then I think this is a game that gets real tight late. And I think, you know, from what we've seen from the Cowboys, we've,

we've seen them struggle to struggle in the playoffs. Like it's a mental game at this point. And I think the Packers are playing with nothing to lose. They're further than they thought they would be this year and they believe in their guy. And I think that's going to go a long way. So this is my favorite bet of the week. I like the Packers against the spread. And I really hope they can win outright because that'd be fun to you. Love it. I love the conviction. Yeah. I mean, I think this game is going to be entertaining to watch. I do. I love the conviction. Yeah. I mean, I think this game is going to be entertaining to watch. I do think, you know, if we can get a good injury report

with some of the offensive weapons for the Packers, I think that makes it definitely a little bit more competitive here. Connor, what are your thoughts on Packers Cowboys? Yeah, I think I agree with a lot of what Clark said here, especially offensively for the Packers here. I mean, Dallas dead last and rushing success right aloud. We've seen them get dominated in the trenches you know defensively they're like plenty of times especially here against the green bay team that i think will try and run the ball and have plenty of success doing so here aaron jones looks healthy and good like i mean when he's healthy he's one of the best running backs in the league it's just that he's it almost helps having aj dylan out too right like i just feel like there's a different like you know you know

you don't feel forced you're gonna give him yeah just is there anyone better than aaron jones at turning four yards into eight yards like it just you're like oh he's gonna get tackle oh oh wow he got eight yards like he just does it every time yeah you know rope it up down the line literally just like you know toe tapping yeah it's it's crazy i don't know how he does it but he's i think a big factor for them and getting that going here against the Packers is going to be key. And also, too, so one thing that was worrying me on my initial look was, you know, Jordan Love under pressure. Dallas can get great pressure. But what I've noticed is that, and what the numbers kind of fleshed out, is that Jordan Love under pressure just takes big swings.

So his average at the target under pressure is 11.8. His average at the target when not pressured is like 7.9 average at the target when not pressured is like 7.9. His yards per attempt under pressure is like seven and a half. It's actually higher under pressure than when not under pressure because he's taking so many more deep shots and deep downfield. And so I think that's pretty interesting here against the Dallas defense that is going to get pressure on him, but also probably leave themselves exposed to bigger plays.

So I kind of like the over because I think that if Green Bay has success here, I have a lot more confidence in this Dallas offense to have success against green Bay. I mean, green Bay, if you look at who they've played against the best passing team that they played is like Detroit. I mean, that's like it, they have literally played, I mean, Kansas city, maybe it was like, you know, like earlier. I don't know. I mean, like, I don't even really consider that to be in the same caliber though, is what we're looking at with his Dallas passing offense when they're clicking. So I, you know, one of the things that I thought about and had like kind of flashbacks of was week one Packers Vikings two years ago, where Justin Jefferson was

lined up against a linebacker for half the game and went for like 200 something yards. I think that is very, very much in the range of outcomes here for CD lamb against this green Bay defense. Cause Joe Barry doesn't give a shit about that. And that and i you know they've done a great job moving cd lamb around getting him to advantageous spots i think that's a very uh potential range of outcomes there and the green bay run defense has been you know fine for most of the year um so i don't think that dallas specifically tries to you know attack them on the ground here so i like both teams have a lot of success offensively i think the one concern is like what clark brought up maybe uh you know they chew up maybe the packers chew up too much clock with their running game but i do think that

the whole pressure aspect and jordan love kind of being able to just make plays downfield i think helps the over either way either he's throwing picks or you know trying to force the ball on field with big completions i think it's good either way so i give me the over here at 50 and a half yeah big number but uh you know if you're gonna have some big plays you know if clark's right i mean obviously that puts actually probably does help the dallas offense because i think they're better when they're forced to push to be you know pass heavy too i think they're more efficient than you unlock cd lamb who can absolutely go berserk here too so yeah i think it's going to be interesting i think seven and a half is probably i mean i think it's too much i

mean i think the half really matters and i think that's going to be interesting. I think seven and a half is probably, I mean, I think it's too much. I mean, I think the half really matters. And I think that's why we see kind of some of the movement and where the line is currently. So a money line, I can't get there, but I love Clark's conviction. What do you got? Two other things anti-Dallas here. One is I was doing, I don't know if you guys saw my tweet, but I did some research on quarterback splits when playing good defenses against bad defenses in EPA per play. And the results Dak wasn't very good. He was he was he had big splits, right? So he performs worse against good defenses. That doesn't apply here, obviously, the Packers bet. But what I noticed when I was

doing that was that Dak's number of snaps against bad defenses was way higher than any of the other quarterbacks I looked at, like, he is he is, I think it was like 390 snaps of his dropbacks came against bottom 12 defenses this year. So a lot of his numbers are very inflated by playing against bad defenses. The second thing is the Cowboys have crushed a lot of opponents this year. That's true. And so I think that's why people are like, well, the Cowboys laying seven and a half at home. I'm not afraid. But if you look at all the offenses that they crushed, the Giants, the Jets, the Patriots, the Giants, the Panthers, the Commanders, the Commanders, the Rams when Matthew Stafford was out at halftime. So they were playing with a backup quarterback the rest of the way. And then that one game against the Eagles when they played them at home.

Those were all the teams that they've beaten by more than a touchdown this year. And so when you're talking about those offenses, those are not the types of offenses that can go blow for blow with the Cowboys. And the Packers are. So I would be interested to see if the Cowboys can really put the – like think about the Seahawks game. Their offense played fantastic, but the Seahawks still stayed in that game and almost won it. I think that's kind of what we should be expecting from the Packers in this one.

Yeah, those are good points. I'm trying to pull up here because I remember early in the season looking and being really surprised at the, you know, not just the pressure to sack rate and the time to throw rate, but the time to pressure rate was something that the Packers were doing a great job early in the season is keeping their young quarterback upright. You know, it's actually, it's still relatively high. It's, you know, one of the better ones in the league in terms of of time the pressure it's not you know like mahomes per se but part of that is mom's ability to avoid pressure there but yeah still above

definitely above league average and you know something that is going to matter here comparatively in what uh you know again part of i would think for a pro cowboy's handicap is going to be the pressure situation um and if that's going to be something they struggle to get home with that's going to give um that's going to give love some time and they are obviously playing with a great deal of confidence and uh yeah seven and a half feels like too many and i can get behind uh connor's play here on the the over maybe partially we just should have maybe some love on the packers team total but uh yeah it's going to be an interesting one all right this one's going to be great.

This is the one we wanted to for sure. Narratives are very strong here. Rams on the road in Detroit against the Lions. Lions three-point favorites. There are threes juiced out, though, basically. Minus 115, minus 120. There were three and a halfs that opened. Those have long evaporated total.

Opened at 52 as well. It's held steady here at 51 and a half kind of expecting offensive fireworks on both sides you know the defense is at times played okay uh but can definitely be had especially with strong passing offenses now again like the lions had an outside shot at the number two seed last week if things broke their way they did not and on top of that unfortunately they added to their injury report um Sam Laporta came into the game questionable with a knee injury. He got dinged up. So did Kalief Raymond. We don't know if they are going to play in this game. That obviously impacts things a little bit that the Lions like this is like the nightmare matchup for the Lions to draw to be honest out of anyone that they could have drawn I think facing Stafford and what he can do offensively is just like a total total nightmare here so digging into

this Detroit defense which has been you know really shoddy at times did get CJ Gardner Johnson back last week still gave up nearly 400 passing yards to Nick Mullins. They've allowed 300 passing yards in six games this season. And that's tied for the second most in the NFL. They're among the league leaders in most passing yards allowed. The quarterbacks that they have not allowed 300 passing yards to, we're looking at Jordan Love twice, who had great games, just didn't need to throw that much in those games. Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ritter, Justin Fields twice, Bryce Young, Derek Carr. I mean, all largely terrible

quarterbacks outside of Jordan Love. And we're looking at guys who I just, every time that there needs to be volume, they're getting it. And so now we're putting the ball in Stafford's hands, who can sling it. Puka Nakua has been, you know, sensation. Cooper Cup looks to be revitalized after I was worried that father time kind of bit him there, uh, you know, mid season. You know, I think that the Rams running game may not be super successful here. Um, which I'm interested to see if they kind of get away from that. Like Kieran Williams kind of been, you know, their, their rock here, but a lot of that has been against, you know, bad defense has been against bad run defenses, whereas the lions run defense is pretty solid so like i think that in this spot here we see stafford sling the ball um which makes me almost lean rams plus three here because this rams rams defense has played better

their metrics are like you know about average throughout the season um and they played well relatively well against like seahawks browns even with flacco um but some of the other games were bad commander saints, giants Cardinals in that stretch as well. So it's like really, I think go can go back and forth on the Rams defense, but the Rams offense, I think we'll have plenty of success here against Detroit. So it has me leading Rams plus three. I'm not jumping at it because I know there's a three and a half, but I still think, you know, if I had to pick a side here, it's, it's the Rams for me. Yeah. I got in early on the three and a half Clark I know you did

two on the Ram side I think though you might have uh some bullish maybe money line thoughts here too on some pro Ram stuff where you at yeah I took three and a half and the money line for the Rams because I think I do think this should be a close game the the coaching and quarterback advantage for the Rams I think pushes me on time because, you know, in a late game, tight late game scenario, I want Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford over Dan Campbell and Joe Groff. That's what it comes down to. And I know that's an overly simplistic way to look at it, but even on the road, even in Detroit, you know, Matthew, Matthew Stafford has the experience in the playoffs and McVay, like there's a lot of, there's a lot of stuff here that, you know,

I go by the metrics and my metrics say this should be two and a half. So I'm seeing value independent of any of this stuff that I'm about to talk about. But on top of that, you listen to Sean McVay in the offseason, and there was some talk about him retiring last year. And if you listen to the Play Callers podcast, you hear his passion for the game. And I think there was a moment this offseason where he decided, no, I'm going to come back, and I'm going to give it a go. And I think, you know, as much as he struggled last year mentally with the losing, like I think that was something he really struggled with.

The winning against expectation, I think, has revitalized him as a person and as a coach. And so I think you got that. You've got, you know, his desire to prove that he was right for trading Stafford for Goff, his familiarity with Goff. You know that he's going to be talking to Raheem Morris about how to set up the – I don't know that – McVay probably would make a good defensive coach. We don't think of him as that. But I think more than anything, he knows Goff's tendencies. He's going to be in the film room with the defensive guys talking about, oh oh yeah like this happened when he was in LA like this this and this and I think

this is like you know the Super Bowl for the Rams right that they're already beyond where they thought they would be and I think if they can win this is like you know so big for them whereas the Lions it feels like they finally they finally did it they finally won the division like the celebration the tears the you know the emotional climax of getting back in the playoffs like sustaining that week after week might be a bit tough especially when they're big favorites against you know what i think is an equally good team so um i i really like the rams narratively here as well as metrically it's a very popular pick i feel like a lot of people like the rams here so worries me a little bit but um you know the the line has also moved down so i think it signals that the the rams you know popular pick. I feel like a lot of people like the Rams here, so it worries me a little bit.

The line has also moved down, so I think it signals that the Rams are getting some actual sharp money. I'm comfortable with this. I think Stafford wins this one outright. I think the Lions are a good team, but they've got too much reliance on scheme. Jared Goff is one of those quarterbacks that when things don't go right from the, from the jump, uh, it's hard to get him back on track. Like, you know, and I think the Rams defense has been playing really well lately. So, so if they can scheme up ways to frustrate Goff, I think, especially without Sam Laporta, um, I think this could get, uh, you know, Rams and then they bleed the clock out with a good run game. Yeah. I think Laporta does matter. You. You've been able to get to the Rams, especially if you have

an above average playmaking tight end through the passing game. I think not having him here would be impactful if that does happen. I think we maybe see some reaction to that news whenever it breaks here. Connor, any thoughts here? Narratives or matchups specifically?

We have golf in the playoffs, though inside, so his baby hands aren't impacted per se. But again, you do have a coach that obviously is very familiar with his strengths and his weaknesses yeah no i think i think rams plus three is uh is the side here i mean it's like you know it's hearing clark talk about it even more just made me you know even more interested in in backing the rams here yeah it's just like one of those things where this is going to be the Lions totally blowing it after an awesome season. Uh, I mean, it's just, you can, you know, too, like that's such a good point that Clark brought up. Like McVay, a hundred percent knows

golf limitations, like to a T because he, no one is more pissed off about it than in LA than golf, you know, air mailing certain passes or missing guys that should have been there. And I mean, hence the trade for Stafford. They literally knew that golf didn't have the arm talent to do what Stafford did like can do and did, and, you know, won the Superbowl. So, um, yeah, I'm interested here, uh, in the Rams plus three and probably a little sprinkle on the money line. The total is tough because I mean, it's just high. And I don't think that there's like outside of Stafford, I think the advantage there, I don't think there's like a direct advantage for the lines here against the Rams outside of them just being like average everywhere.

So yeah, I think that's a little bit tough for me. You're muted Clark. I think it's a little high. You've got a, you know, indoor game with two really good offenses. So I understand why people want to go to the over,

but the defenses are both a little bit underrated. The Rams have improved over the course of the season. Like I talked about with the Packers offense, a bunch of young guys getting better matters. I mean, the lions are getting healthy and I think, you know, those quarterbacks you named Connor,

like I thought they were pretty good. Like, you know, the NFL is changing guys like Baker Mayfield, pretty good. Jordan love pretty good. So, so I think the lions defense is a little bit underrated too. They started off overrated and then people overcorrected in my opinion. So

I think one, the defenses are both, and they're both pretty good against the run and both teams want to run the ball. And then I think the other side of that is to get above 51 and a half in today's NFL, like you've got to turn red zone opportunities into touchdowns. You got to get explosive plays and you can get under that number without even bad offense like it's just the clock was running because they were running the ball well they reached third down a bunch like this you know they go for it on fourth down and five at the 10 yard line because you know they want to touch down and they fail like there's so many ways to miss this massive of a total uh that i think it's just you know it's under a pass i just hope that one day you know if for some reason you're working for an nfl team that you

do not have desmond ritter on your team or anything because he'll be your starter the whole year so it's you know you you gotta i think you got a bad quarterback fetish you know it's like one of those things that you could just like you know you love love to back the dogs. But your stat was 300 yard passing. Ritter slung the ball all year. Like his problem was not getting yards. His problem was turnovers. So, you know, if you erase all the turnovers, Ritter was a good quarterback.

I will reanalyze the games in terms of EPA, whatever metric you want. He sucks. He's like a bottom five starting quarterback of the year. Yeah, because of his turnovers, but he throws the ball. He gets yards. I hit my only season long prop of

the whole year. Season long player prop of the year is Desmond Ritter's over passing yards. It was like it was like, you know, peasant level quarterback production 2500 i mean part of that's arthur smith's fault though so yeah he got it even before he got benched yeah i agree it's a little high do you think there's a scenario where like you said like

like we always think of the rams especially this iteration of the rams like this way this team has been built with the weapons that they have they like to throw the football but like talked about earlier this season they have some pretty massive like run splits when they're ahead like they are very run heavy uh with a lead even a three-point lead they typically run uh one of the league's highest rate i believe top five and uh you know and rush rate over expected uh when they are leading so these are two great red zone offenses at least they have been the season they are uh you know detroit two great red zone offenses. At least they have been the season there. You know, Detroit's third and the Rams are fourth. They're both top 10 and third down conversion rate.

Those are all really good buys from a scoring standpoint. We're still, we're a little high at this point, still at 51 and a half on the wrong side of a key number, in my opinion, if you were looking to take that. So it's definitely would lean under, but again,

I feel better about the Rams personally. If it's 24, 20, if it's definitely would lean under but again i feel better about the rams personally if it if it's 24 20 if it's 24 20 and one team gets the ball on their own 25 with six minutes left the game the game's ending 24 20 on that drive like that's that's how good the runoff is yeah yeah they're sure it's all going to try for sure just interesting teams haven't really run with volume against the lions this season part of it is because you don't have to, you can pass against them. Also because the game script doesn't really allow it to, as they've seen, I think, the least amount of volume in rush attempts against.

Now they've been really efficient. Again, I think they've led the league in yards per carry allowed. And from an EPA standpoint, they're like a top five defense on the ground. They've faced very, very little volume because of the way games have gone. So interesting to see what happens there if kyron williams is to bang his head into a wall over and over again definitely the path of least resistance against the lions is through the air all right the monday night cap uh philadelphia on the road in tampa bay it's a rematch we had very early in the season feels like a lifetime ago in terms of uh football but uh i thought this

would open and hold that philly is a small favorite less than three here on the road it's where we opened but it did not hold we're now out to philly minus three um two and a half could move back we already see draft kings at three minus 102 uh total has been bet down as well it's hovering around some key numbers 44 43 and a half which i think matters if you have a lean there as well Both of these teams have absolutely backed into the playoffs Look, I mean You get very jekyll and high performances From Tampa Bay

We've seen some great stuff from Baker We've seen some stuff that's very head-scratching Philly has been a disaster Injury report is not pretty Again, only Wednesday This is a Monday night game So they've got a little bit more time here uh clark alleged to get started with philly and tampa bay this is kind of a ugly

stepchild of the week in football like nobody really wants to watch this game it's gonna we have to wait till monday night um you know tampa bay doesn't really they're just not they're not a good team like they've had some good games bakerfield, it's really nice to see Baker Mayfield revitalize his career and establish himself as, you know, a legitimate starter in the NFL. So that's a good story. But their defense hasn't been great, which has historically been much better. Granted, they've dealt with a bunch of injuries and they seem healthy, but even then I just think they're a step slower than they have been in the past. this isn't getting home as much um they're just not able to frustrate offenses the way they have in the past so it's going to be on

Baker Mayfield um you know fortunately the Eagles defense also hasn't been very good so we could see some some success for the Bucks passing game if the weather if the weather is fine um but I am looking for ways to get involved with the Eagles I can't do it here like I've just been staring at this game being like, yeah, I just can't like three on the road. Not with all the injuries, but I think they're a little bit underrated. I think their kind of arc of the season has been,

you know, they were clearly frauds early on. And then they kind of showed that they were frauds later in the season against a run of really tough opponents. But then they continue to slide back into against bad opponents. And so they didn't have that, like what I was expecting was kind of a rollercoaster where, okay, they look really, really bad

against these good teams and then you buy them on the dip, but they just never dip. They never came back from the dip. They just stayed down there. And so it's a very ugly situation for them. I think they're, you know, I don't know about locker room stuff,

but it seems like things aren't clicking, like the offense isn't working. You know, Jalen Hurts is having a hard time finding guys downfield the way he has in the past. And so he finds himself oftentimes just kind of like rolling out to the right as the pressure gets to him. And then eventually he just either steps out of bounds or throws it downfield for nobody. That's just not a sustainable offense.

They need to get the run game going consistently. And I think the Bucs are good enough to kind of disrupt them a little bit, but I think it's still Eagles or pass for me. It's just not a number that I love to get involved in on the road. Cutter, we talked about this game in advance a lot. It's just like, hey, you're talking about the NFC South. Someone's fighting to take an L to whoever doesn't win the NFC East uh here we are like I did not think we'd be here without you know tell me we get two and a half or three and wouldn't have massive conviction

on whoever that NFC East team is but it's kind of where we're at because like Clark said I I you and I I think we're on the same page early with Philly the offense was was good. And I think we thought it was better than it was even performing. And there were some buying opportunities we took advantage of. But now it does feel like it's sunk to the levels of where the defense was, where defense is just absolutely, we knew 70 sacks was unsustainable, right? Like they didn't even lead the league in pressure rate last year and set an all-time sack record, like through the roof. It was going to come back to earth,

but it's come back to earth maybe a little too far. Now you've got injuries on top of it. Not a great feeling here. What are your thoughts on Eagles on their way to Tampa Bay? Yeah, the injuries are killer because we look at the last game here. A.J. Brown had like 130 yards or something like that too, and his status is majorly in question. They came out today and said,

oh, well, it's not a season-ending injury, but it could easily be a one-week injury, two-week injury. I mean, there's definitely a lot of gray area there depending on how long they expect the season to be. And if he plays, they said he could be limited. So then that puts a lot of pressure on Devonta Smith, who's also injured, Dallas Goddard maybe. So it's not like everything is flowing,

and I think they kind of need all that right now based on what we've seen. But I guess the counter argument to that is that Deandre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell absolutely crushed them last time on the ground as well. And so that, you know, I think plays in their favor. I mean, with Philly for the last few years, if they can run the ball, everything else has worked significantly better for a team like that. So I think that's interesting too. And on top of this, like Clark touched on it. I mean, this Bucks team is just unbelievably overrated, You know, like all of their games against have come against, uh, you know, non-playoff team, except for one, they beat the Packers.

Unfortunately, uh, you know, your Packers, but otherwise they lost the Eagles by two scores, also the lines by two scores, lost the bills in game. There was two scores until two minutes left. They scored like a garbage time touchdown with like two minutes. They played the Texans well in the shootout and then lost the Niners by two scores. So it's like any good team that they've played, they've just gotten absolutely annihilated. And so, but the question is like, are the Eagles right there yet? Like, is this current iteration of the Eagles like a really good team? And I don't have a definitive answer to that. So two and a half, yeah, I was interested in the Eagles. Three, maybe not. If we get more clarity on the injury situation situation if we have like some semblance of the eagles offense i think i'll probably take

some eagles action here davante smith got rolled up on all blocking that wasn't great like so like you're talking about him having to shoulder a heavier load like he i don't know i don't know about his status or how close he's to playing but he's not 100 and he's been dinged up from earlier in the season as well the team that like part of my handicap on like fading in the season was they get their inability to stay healthy of all the teams we've talked about today. The box probably have the cleanest injury report walking into wild card weekend. They are like everyone that matters pretty much on both sides.

The ball is active and ready to go. Now, again, that doesn't necessarily mean they're a good football team. I didn't think they were a good football team while they were healthy early in the season, but at least that's going for them here. It's like if they can convert in the seams,

you can get Blankenship and Kevin Byard in coverage. It has not been pretty. You've been able to attack them with tight ends all season long. You can run against them. Yeah, it's very very very interesting to see how this game can go uh two and a half would be a little bit more interesting on philly but yeah for me it's a stay away of all the games i just don't have a feel any feel without the injury report on philly side i could also comment from go for it so we're gonna

say it's uh yeah we had we had a John Ross said, the more I listen to this, the happier I am that I bet props. I think you should bet both, uh, because I think there's more specific angles that are better for both. Because if you know, like Stafford's going to have success passing the ball, maybe it's good to bet the problem.

Maybe it'd be better to bet the Rams. Yeah. I don't know. But, uh, yeah, there certainly is a lot of, I think there's a lot of uncertainty this weekend with at least this game

and, the chiefs dolphins game. I think there's those two games are particularly like a lot of uncertainty with injuries and everything so yeah i was gonna say you have to tell yourself a story right so you need some sort of handicapping element from a game standpoint to be able to i don't know i think i do that's how i do it but yeah be thorough i i think i could see myself ending up on an e was alt spread here um for a couple reasons one is like you know the kumbaya moment like if if it turns out that they just kind of stumbled through like we know we know they weren't trying the giants game the cardinals game was a bit weird they kind of had limited possessions the defense

got tired on the field like if we see them all coalesce and come together devon smith's healthy they look like the Eagles have passed. We could see like, oh yeah, of course, of course the Eagles are good. And then on the other side of the ball, like Baker Mayfield has been hurt the last two weeks in game and trotted

back out there. Cause he's tough, but you know, one bad hit and you're now going against Kyle Trask. Like, you know, there's a couple of different avenues here for, for all spread to hit.

So that might be something where I just risk a little to win a lot on just an angle that. Yeah, I get that. We lost you at the end, but we know what you're saying. Eagles, there's a range of outcomes that, that could be a little bit higher. So, all right. Good stuff. As always, we appreciate you guys hanging out with us. If you were in the chat before you leave, make sure you subscribe. Make sure you hit us with a thumbs up.

We appreciate the comments. Find the podcast here on your podcast feeds later in the evening. And, John, come back on Friday. We're going to talk props. Here's a little bit more of that. If you have not, check that out. Again, Friday afternoons, Connor, myself, and Hyslop. So good stuff as always.

Appreciate you guys for connor and clark i'm ryan we'll see y'all next time thanks everybody you