Move The Line - Week 1 Betting Recap & Week 2 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: September 9, 2025

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Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello and welcome. It's the move of line presented by Sharpstack. Ryan Noon, joined here, as always, by Connor Allen. Week one in the books, buddy. We are turning the page to week two, which I always think is such a fascinating exercise in terms of overreaction, underreaction. How we doing?
Starting point is 00:00:25 Good, man. Yeah, are the Colts the best offense in the league, or the Dolphins really that bad, you know, it's, uh, somewhere in the middle, probably. But, you know, it's like, it's like those types of conversations that we get to have, uh, you know, the week two, I would say even week two, three, four, like, I really, I mean, I think the correct way to do, which is like what Hunter does is like, you know, leverage your preseason priors, your numbers then and then blend the new numbers and, like, weight them all properly. I don't think either of us necessarily create our own numbers. So, like, I'm not
Starting point is 00:00:54 going to look at like this year's EPA or success rate or anything that we normally would cite, like mid-season. And we just need a little bit more under our belt because like every match needs to be contextualized, every stat needs to be contextualized. And right now I don't think there's just enough context with one week. This is the hard part, right? And then the one part too, still even to your point, like I agree with you, it's not just the one-week thing, it's not just the two-week things.
Starting point is 00:01:15 You start to get into like retrospective strength of schedule and your perception of things change too, right? So it's like performances in week one are often, you know, through the lens of quarterback player offensive efficiency but then you have to start to think about like well how much is that offense related how much was that the challenges dictated by the opposing defense or the scheme and the match of the difference it so it is always really hard in football in general because we're always going to be dealing with small samples we're always going to be dealing with uneven samples because just strength of schedule can vary massively in in this type of setting when you play a team
Starting point is 00:01:52 you know how strong they were in terms of injuries like these are these are things that make it really really hard early in the seasons you try to think back of seasons past think about coming out a week two last year we're like holy shit of the saints like one of the best teams in the league that's the best offense like what's kubbiak doing they like you know hang 40 on dallas and people thought dallas's defense was really good you know the bangles are stubbing their toe again doing their thing and you just you just never you never know so we're to try to do our best here to parse through some of that today make up from down how do we project moving forward some of our biggest takeaways from
Starting point is 00:02:26 week one how do we uh you know take that information as we look at the week two board uh sides and totals early prop liens in terms of you know the matchups and things we're looking at to unpack some of these injuries too also want to remind you if you haven't yet please check out sharp stack a new suite of betting tools that we have here at four for four including the ev tool market base projections pickum tool arb tool many more the best odd screens uh both games and props that you will find out there if you want to check out sharp stack you do so right now for free seven day trial four four four dot com slash plans you'll see the sharp stack uh it's largest one we have it's all the way to the right uh gets you access to everything that we have
Starting point is 00:03:09 on the site too so if you have a sharp stack subscription you get the picks up so you get all of Connor nice picks all the DFS stuff all the season long stuff again every article tool that we have on the site I've used promo code mtl move the line you get 25% off check it out today again seven day free trial right now I cannot beat that take advantage so move line's going to be here every Tuesday 11 a.m. Eastern 4-4 live on the YouTube channel move the line where we listen to podcast uh if you can join us live we'd appreciate it jump in the chat let us know your favorite look is for week two uh what burn you in week one Again, don't forget about prop drop on Friday, 3 p.m. Eastern, myself, Connor, high slop, it gets wild.
Starting point is 00:03:50 So we appreciate hanging out there. We love doing that one. So let's get started, Connor thoughts on Monday, on a football. I think it was going to be, we talked about was going to be a very interesting Tuesday morning debrief either way. It seemed to be going to be the J.J. McCarthy is just not the dude. Now we're back to like the, you know, Caleb maybe isn't solvable for Ben Johnson. where are you at in your takeaways on what we saw on Monday night? I mean, there's so much to talk about there because that game was loaded with just
Starting point is 00:04:19 different sections of what mattered. So I think starting it off here, like high level stuff, the Bears looked great in their scripted plays. Like, you know, Caleb was going through his reads and checking the ball down a lot, which I think seemed normal. Like at Flores kind of seemed to be like feeling it out a little bit. And then when they were non-scripted, started sending some heat. And Caleb just like couldn't hang at times, like wasn't going to.
Starting point is 00:04:42 getting it done that being said they had a they had a good drive they're up seven three fourth and three and they go for it and they don't get it uh and instead of kicking a field goal that field goal obviously very important uh and then you know they miss a field goal later at the end chiro santo's not kicking the ball out of the end zone or out of balance is just yeah i was yelling him i'm not even like a bearer's saying i was yelling at my tv i was like this is infuriating to watch because you just got to kick it as hard as you can i like he should be able to kick it out of the end zone. I'm pretty sure that he can. I can't imagine there's any kicker that can't kick it out of the end zone.
Starting point is 00:05:18 And you just have to know time and situation. Like it's like sports 101. Like you have to know time and situation. Yeah. He should be cut. Honestly, I'm trading. That's the thing too, right? Is that on the special teams coach?
Starting point is 00:05:28 Is that not like clearly explain? Like here's what we have to do right now. Like we have to maintain the two minute morning. It's, yeah, it's interesting. Ben Johnson said that he very clearly told Cairo Santos to kick the ball. of, you know, whatever. Andy's giving me shit here. Okay, Kurt Warner, Connor, take the points out on.
Starting point is 00:05:46 No, I mean, you're up four. It's fourth and three. Like, your defense was playing really well at the time. I think you definitely take the points there. I would, I don't know. Maybe the numbers don't agree with that, but that's, I would bet it's pretty close at that point in the game, considering it was a four-point game, you know, so. I just, overall takeaway, though, like, I thought J.J. McCarthy looked
Starting point is 00:06:07 legit awful for a long time, settled in, started playing a little bit better. still not super convinced that he's like awesome but i don't know fine take away at the end where did you end up on him yeah i mean i was i was getting annoyed during the game because i i hate this i know we we do it we're guilty of it we're just so quick to want to label binary outcomes on whatever we're watching and it's like it's either good or bad you're either awesome or you suck and like he's his first game it's his first game it's his first game his first game on the road hometown extra pressure like we knew these things coming in we just settled down a little bit he's missing his left tackle like there's just a i just the fact that we
Starting point is 00:06:54 needed to have an answer and it was so quick to be like i'm saying it like we just got a you know the the vikings are taking on water like what are we what are we doing let's get out of any of our preseason priors on the viking just like oh shit can we get to the third quarter and like let's just let's just settle down there's a lot of bad quarterback play in week one really outside of sunday night football which is electric it was a lot of bad football in week one is an extended preseason you know even more and more teams having fewer actual starter reps um you know we again good move overall losing the fourth preseason game but we used to see a lot of you know like gradual reps in maybe week one week two a pretty good amount of reps in week three in the
Starting point is 00:07:36 preseason and then pretty much no starters would play in week four unless you were trying to make a team. And now we've sucked that out. And week one sometimes looks like a preseason game. So I don't know, I'm I'm bullish on JJ McCarthy moving forward. I think he's going to be like serviceable or beyond for this season on a really good Vikings roster with, you know, a coaching staff that I think we think very highly of. So like my priors don't change. I think Minnesota's can be I think Minnesota's a playoff team so I'll stay there I'm not going to be wishy-washy with I think Minnesota is a playoff team so I think JJ's going to be fine when they get everyone back I think they're going to be I think they're going to be
Starting point is 00:08:16 interesting so the Bears thing is interesting too I mean I think we saw some exciting stuff like you said early in the scripted stuff I think you know leaned on a little bit of mobility there's some floaters at times from Caleb that looks you know look a little bit questionable but again I think we believe in Ben Johnson too so I'm not ready to write off the bears who were playing also a little short-handed, especially defensively. Yeah, like that was my biggest takeaway, too, is like when you put it in the context of, okay, we think these Vikings defense is pretty good. They're aggressive.
Starting point is 00:08:47 They're fun. Like, it's not like a cakewalk for Caleb, right? So, like, I think that there's definitely should be some forgiveness in terms of, like, okay, he wasn't all that good. He missed some throws. The DJ Moore one was really bad. He was late and overthrew him. But on the other hand, like, JJ McCarthy was, I mean,
Starting point is 00:09:04 mean throwing against i mean nation right did you know who that was like i mean that was like i mean like these guys are like fourth and fifth strings corners when you got on like uh you're missing kiler and uh jalen johnson you know like yeah and they still played pretty well i think for the most part which i think is more of testament to dennis allen right like that's that was another takeaway for me it was like all right dennis allen's probably a pretty good defensive coordinator yeah i actually wanted them to be more aggressive early uh versus McCarthy too like give him send him some some uh you know blitzes and different things taking on um he just seemed to be a little bit conservative so yeah i think you make a great point the
Starting point is 00:09:44 flores scheme is just you know again they've had x amount of months to plan for it so it's not like they were surprised that they were playing minnesota in week one but it is unique right they don't it's not like other other uh any other scheme that they're going to face all year right it's it's zone heavy and they blitz from all over the place and sometimes it's easier against the blitz where if it's manned behind it where you know you're going to find one-on-one matches so you get early pre-snap diagnosed
Starting point is 00:10:12 where the one-on-one is or get in that first second, second and a half, you know where you can take a shot. Sometimes zone, you need to be, you know, your receiver needs a little bit more time to sit, you know, find those spots. You have to read, is he sitting in the zone? Is he going to continue his route?
Starting point is 00:10:26 So that time, that's kind of another reason why the floresting is a little bit harder to do if you aren't necessarily super good pre-snap, or even in that second and a half that you get post-snap. So, yeah, it's a tricky matchup. So I want to have some grace for Caleb to, again, partially just buying in Ben Johnson being able to figure this out with such a amount of talent that they have on the offensive side.
Starting point is 00:10:48 Yep. And, I mean, I think that that loss is very much on, I mean, Ben Johnson for not taking the points, Cairo Santos for just being trash and Caleb for not playing well enough, honestly. So it's like a combo of those three, in my opinion. at this point, but I think that they're, again, they're going to be, like, I would expect a lot of these games from the Bears where they're close,
Starting point is 00:11:09 they're in the game, it could go either way. Like, that's, at least in my opinion, I envision them as a team that's going to keep, just probably a lot of games close like this and be competitive. Yeah, I agree. It's, continue to be so lions week two i don't know if that's a good segue there but uh yeah is an interesting one it is so right this so lions week two we're looking at uh where are we at now
Starting point is 00:11:43 there's actually some some so does it bookmakers a little bit off market um i don't know if it's just the odd screen is a little bit weird at four and a half um here's five and a half's even six is in some spots on this game we see where we're at right now uh so the bears are on the road in detroit's yeah so five and a half some say we're moving too we're moving too we're moving in Detroit side sixes. So yeah, never mind, that's the bookmaker one moved. So, yeah, what do you think about that movement here? We were at four and a half.
Starting point is 00:12:11 We moved out to a full six, basically, on the Lions. We talked with Mayo that like pre-show on Monday, it was like, what, four and a half he said? I thought it could have moved even more in favor of the Bears if they, like, had continued their kind of resounding win over the Vikings. The Lions coming off. One of the worst performances I can remember in the last couple of years, honestly, offensively and defensively.
Starting point is 00:12:31 now we're up to lions minus six i i want to continue fading the lions like i was was so unimpressed um someone tweeted out a chart of like teams motion rates versus uh play action rates it was like the lions fall in the category they did a lot of play action which is good but they were like one of the lower end motion rate teams uh as well so that's not a good sign um again when you're just leaving your guys on islands when jared golf does not have stuff like kind of fed to him when you run the ball they had the lowest pass rate in the league last week despite losing i think they're trailed the entire game you know i think they were losing except for when they were tied at the beginning but then they were losing the entire game so
Starting point is 00:13:10 i don't know man i was i was really surprised i was disappointed and maybe i'm just confirming my priors against like packers defense that's probably pretty good but uh it was not pretty no it was not pretty um a lot of garbage time that has kind of had in the stats that make it look a little bit better with like you know golf's completion percentage over expectation a lot of dunked down so it's like 10 receptions for jimir gibbs uh which is which is interesting i was looking at some of the motion stuff this morning i'm trying to find where i had it um but i did see that they were down there saw the patriots were down there as well which is discouraging um pre snap motion it's not come on josh let's go let's uh it's moving around a little bit a little play action
Starting point is 00:13:52 a little pre snap motion yeah fascinating you know fascinating game because again One of these teams is starting 0 and 2, and both those losses are coming in the division. It's going to be really hard to make up considering, I think, what we thought of the Packers coming into the season. They have a chance to start 2-0, again, with a leg up in the division there too. So, you know, obviously the Vikings getting one and getting a division win as well. So it becomes a, again, not a must-win, but a pretty seismic game in terms of the impact in that division and the thought process of a playoff team.
Starting point is 00:14:26 So I'm kind of with you. The six points seems a little bit like an overreaction. And I don't want to make more of it than it is. I mean, it's your first year as a head coach. Every game is going to be super important in the Bears into Ben Johnson. Because it's got to be a Super Bowl, right? Like he's got to be absolutely ready to go for what's coming. And again, he's not going up against, he's going up against Dan Campbell.
Starting point is 00:14:52 He's not going up against Aaron Glenn's defense necessarily. but like he knows where the tendencies are where the situations to exploit are and one of the key injury notes heading into the week i think is terrian arnold uh who's dinged up perimeter corner for the lions who matters for them definitely their best corner and they still are a little weak at at corner especially in the perimeter and if if arnold is out again there's a lack of pass rush still in detroit the fact that they didn't go out and get brings adarius smith back in allowed the eagles to take advantage of that, let him sit out there. It's actually one of the major loopholes.
Starting point is 00:15:30 I heard Sam Motton talking about this. So, like, teams that if you sign these free agents that were released prior to week one, their salary, their full salary is guaranteed. If you sign them after week one starts, Thursday night game, after it starts, you're not on the hook for the entire their salary. So the teams that play Thursday night have a huge edge. You get like a three-day edge against these other teams who haven't started their week one yet to sign the guy and not take on that full salary. And the Eagles who aren't going to miss a loophole in terms of roster building go out and add to Darius Smith,
Starting point is 00:16:08 who was really good last year, who would have fit really well for the Lions to come real back, you know, back and work opposite of Hutch there. So, yeah, bears, it's not something I'm jumping, but I mean, this continues to steam out pro lions. I don't know six six and a half I mean six and a half I'd be surprised we got there at this point we're seeing some five and a half fan duel circa I would guess it probably sits in the dead zone to be honest but it's early you never know it's early yeah yeah it's definitely one to watch in one of the I think highlights of the week I want to give you this list I want you to tell me what jumps out at you and any you know take it anywhere you want it we can take you know we dive into each of these but these are based on it completely Completion percentage over expectation. These are week one, the bottom of the week one, QB performances. Bottom tie for both Caleb Williams and Bryce Young, 13.2% completion percentage over expectation. Not great. Russ, not too far behind, negative 12.7.
Starting point is 00:17:11 Cam Ward, tough matchup on the road for rookie debut, minus 10.5. Patrick Mahomes, minus 7.9% completion percentage. Over expectation. Tough scene for the Tuanon crowd, minus 7.4% for Tua against a vaunted Colts defense. And then Trevor Lawrence, negative 5.9% against the Panthers defense there. What jumps out? What's noise? What signal?
Starting point is 00:17:42 What scares you? What are you kind of thrown to the wayside for week one? Yeah, I mean, the Caleb stuff's not good. Bryce Young stuff especially is really, I mean, that's really bad, especially after we saw him, take a step forward last year at the end of the year. I'm a little bit worried about this Panthers offense in a game that I thought could have been pretty high scoring back and forth. Russell Wilson, I mean, I think it's just, it's over.
Starting point is 00:18:02 Like, we talked about a preseason. There already didn't, he already didn't, wasn't committal on like week two status. They are going to start him in week two. But that's like, if they're already wavering, I mean, it's, they're going to lose the next three games. I think it's, what do they have, Kansas City. And, or they have Dallas, Kansas City and the Chargers, the next three weeks and then New Orleans.
Starting point is 00:18:23 So they're going to lose all those games. And so we're going to see, I would guess that we see Jackson Dart week five or sooner against week five against the Saints. Talked about it, I don't even know, 20 times on the show. I think that's like a great, great first game for Jackson Dart, who could be fun. Russell Wilson was legitimately awful. So I think that was, again, that's flesh out in the numbers. Cam Ward, I'm ready to give a pass to.
Starting point is 00:18:48 I don't think that that's like, I just don't think we should be like. like all in on like oh cam ward sucks then the coaching staffs a little bit you know the scheme isn't great but there's not a bunch of great players but now you get the rams i mean the rams rams got some some wagons up front too so like it might be tough for the titans as well like i don't think this is like a a cupcake matchup to fall into i don't know so jcc latham maybe you know not we have to get his injury status but i think he left early in that week on game too i actually watched rewatch the cam ward stuff yeah what did um i actually didn't think he was that bad i think he made some plays he actually showed again he's not like necessarily
Starting point is 00:19:25 uh he's not immobile but like he showed i think a better pocket presence than i was expecting it's a really good defense he was up against right in a tough spot denver september that trend is is like 20 years deep regardless of how good denver is that's a really tough road spot to start your season i don't think i think his guys let him down like i think there was some some calvin ridley drops um i think there's reasons to be optimistic there that could be some good ball in there coming soon. I kind of agree. Yeah, I think, again, but is it this week against the Rams?
Starting point is 00:19:59 I don't think it's this week, yeah. I don't think it's this week either. Like, I don't know. Who else do they, what's the rest of their schedule look like? Like, there's got to be, there's going to be a great by-low period on Cam Ward and the Titans. Okay, they get the Colts the week after. Then the Texans, that's another tough one. Then they have like Cardinals, Raiders, Patz.
Starting point is 00:20:16 So it like opens up a little bit. Like, yeah. I mean, most of those are decent defenses. not they're not going to be like again not facing the broncos right they especially up front the ability to get pressure like if he has a little bit more time that's going to help him a little bit see i'm with you i'm giving him i'm giving him a pass and again open to being optimistic on cam war in the future did you see the domestic violence charges came out against uh tyreek this morning too like i think there's potential he could be commissioners
Starting point is 00:20:45 exempt he was already crashing out on the sideline like midgame um like I think the dolphins just might like might be done like it's just over I think for two uh and the dolphins which sounds doom dayish but it's kind of what we saw last year a little bit and now if we're getting you know Tyreek not full health not playing all that well and crashing out maybe gone what waddle got banged up the offensive line still sucks the defense really sucks it's a tough blend it's it's tough I mean I don't want to say I'll cover my my ass I'll say allegedly I believe he kicked a pregnant his pregnant girlfriend in the stomach in college right like so um i don't even think
Starting point is 00:21:27 that's allegedly i'm pretty sure that was uh no yeah i think he pushed her downstairs um okay well at least you're yeah both suck so i mean awful that's why he went in the third round right that was like he was like a third round or he played it some like random juco i think his senior year because he got kicked out of school and like was playing there and then got drafted the third ground by the chiefs yeah correct so this is actually where I wanted to take this because the the commissioner example is all these things with how the league sometimes moves a little slow on some of these things like especially when it becomes legal proceedings and this is I think in discovery in the divorce settlement or whatever's going on so um there's a little bit more time
Starting point is 00:22:10 for that to shake out at least a little bit slow but you know who loves rostering guys that just got arrested or the kansas city chiefs absolutely right this is this is sylva's bit right like you know the chiefs will take on all those guys and like who's down bad at receiver right now kansas city they totally use you know i think we're going to get some some discussion on on that regardless so you know punching your soon to be ex-wife one way ticket out of miami apparently um someone on the right carpet for that someone one tweeted about the chiefs having interest in them, too, in Tyreek too. I mean, I think that makes a ton of sense, especially if the dolphins might be, you know,
Starting point is 00:22:52 just closing up shop here pretty soon. Yeah, I think that could make a lot of sense. I think the question it would be like that I'm sure the chiefs would want to know, like, is he going to get suspended this year or like, what does that look like? But I mean, hey, a full strength lineup with like Rishi Rice and Xavier Worthy and Tyreek and Hollywood and whatever we got left to Kelsey. it's kind of crazy could be interesting
Starting point is 00:23:17 yeah I mean look can he cover the Rishi Rice suspension right just let's get him in for six games get him suspended for six games yep you know more of these back by the time you get to November early December
Starting point is 00:23:30 everyone's back and you figure out what you got left for the the playoffs so yeah yeah it sucks not a great not a great we're like joking about it but I mean it's pretty fucking terrible and yeah real quick too on Lauren
Starting point is 00:23:44 Ian Hartons tweeted this out. Two noticeable Jaguars' offense changes with Liam Cohen. Pre-snap motion, 24-4 Jags were third most static. 63% motion rate in week one of this year, which is like eighth best. So it was like one of the biggest increases in the NFL. And then they jumped in terms of screens from like 6.5% to 11% as well. So I don't know, some good things going there. Trevor Lawrence, I think, just has to play better.
Starting point is 00:24:11 Like Caleb Williams has to play better. Liam Cohen and his presser broke down like all of the reasons Brian Thomas didn't get the ball. I don't know if you saw that presser, but it was like Trevor missed a throw here. Trevor threw it too short here. We missed him on a crosser here. And it was it was bad. Liam Cohen like, you know, inadvertently was basically just tossing Trevor right under the bus. Dang.
Starting point is 00:24:33 Yeah, 77.4%. They were behind only the Rams and the Niners in pre-snap motion for week one, which is, you know, definitely just to see. Yeah, the bottom team's Tennessee, comfortably the worst, 21.4%. We don't have the Monday night stuff yet. And New England right behind at 28.3. So not great. McDaniel's washed. Yeah, it's just the easy buttons, right?
Starting point is 00:25:03 Like we have so much data now knowing that like it just helps. Pre-snap motion, you know, again, both from a, it allows your quarter, back to predetermine what the defense is doing a little bit it you know just creates a little bit more chaos pre-snap for the defense just do it it's like just do it i don't know what we're doing doing it's up 50 percent it's it's pretty wild at this point so uh yeah not not great so again look we touched on a little bit yesterday with mayo like it's week one i want to over react to it but like that's a low-hanging fruit panthers coming to town home game like you got take advantage of that for Trevor Lawrence, who just continue to find ways to make excuses
Starting point is 00:25:45 for. He's just, yeah, he plays injured. He's been hurt a bunch, but you got to start to piece it together with a coordinator that seems to kind of have the magic touch with a lot of different quarterbacks. Pretty solid weapons, you know, improved offensive line. So that's another fascinating one with the Jags going to Cincinnati in week two. Cincinnati's three and a half point favorites at home. They obviously didn't get off to the start that we would have expected. offensively there, their defense held on. They should have lost that football game. If the Browns could get any summits of a kicking game going,
Starting point is 00:26:19 they put some really good defense in the second half. They've seen to have, I would say have Burroughs number, but those games have been closer in this Borough, Bengals era, regardless of what's going on with the Browns offensively. So what do you make of that three and a half in Cincinnati with Jacksonville? Yeah, total was interesting to me because on paper, you think about it coming into the year like, oh, this game should be just like hot, you know?
Starting point is 00:26:41 know, like Jags are cooking, Bengals' events isn't that good. Bengals' offense can obviously just, like, exploit anyone. The Jags' events shouldn't be that good. 49 and a half, you know, again, I think if both teams had played better, we're looking at like a total in 52, 53, something like that. That could make a lot of sense. Now we're 49 and a half. But that be said, like, I don't have that much confidence that this game is going to
Starting point is 00:27:02 shoot out anymore. Like, I know it's going to be talked about a ton is like, oh, the shootout, like, this is going to be the best game of the week. I mean, would it be that surprising if they just like face plan, it's like 23. 20 or something like it's like not that exciting in a game um i don't know like jaggs didn't play that well bangles didn't play that well i know both their defenses aren't that good but still it's the offense is just didn't play that well they got bed down a little bit because we had a 51 in look-aheads and mostly 50 and a half so we've already taken a little bit of under money yeah i mean
Starting point is 00:27:32 this is tricky where it's like how much do we hang on to preseason priors and i think we should probably hang on more to preseason priors in one game for sure but um Yeah, it definitely feels like a spot where there should be some back and forth, right? Our concerns I think about these teams coming into the season were probably more defensively than, you know, than anything on the offensive side. So it will be interesting to see where that money moves here on a Tuesday, see if we continue to trend down or if we get to a spot where there's some buyback on the over because now we're starting to work into some, you know, second tier of key numbers in terms of where that one is. Bet like over 59 and a half instead of 49 and a half. I'm just like, this game could get real hot. Agreed.
Starting point is 00:28:14 Like, it could be crazy if things are clicking, but it could also just not be. So, which is, I know it's like, you know, middling my take there, but I think that the upside is insane. Yeah, but you were going to have probably get 450 or 5 to 1 on something that's, you know, 10 points. When you get, you're talking about getting to 60, right? You're probably going to get a pretty decent price on something like that, right? You're not talking about betting it in a, you know, minus 110.
Starting point is 00:28:40 you're talking about taking some upside yeah right so totally different yeah yeah chasing up a little bit um i want to highlight some key injuries brock purdy's an interesting one um sounds like he's like like legit game time decision dealing with a shoulder left shoulder so non-throwing shoulder and a toe injury sounds like he's not going to practice at all this week they are on the road against the saints um we moved it all there i believe it was seven uh it looks like we're down to four and a half okay so that's that's legit um mac jones on deck um obviously a boatload of other injury issues in san francisco so it's not just brock purdy it's obviously george kiddle out uh we don't know about joan jennings his status isn't great the shoulder seems to be
Starting point is 00:29:25 a real cost for concern cmc's not someone we have to worry about he seemed to be fine tren williams is fine but uh what do you think here i mean four and a half saints team's not very good i mean they can start Mac Jones and I think they win by a touchdown I guess it's like they're a wave they can go out there Purdy can be playing on one leg just hand the ball off to CMC a bunch
Starting point is 00:29:45 I mean this defense looked pretty nasty at times last week and again this Saints offense is yeah not good like Radler threw the ball a bunch last week I think kind of found I mean some rhythm I guess per se but they couldn't capitalize a lot
Starting point is 00:29:59 Camara looked good as always but again it's just like it's nothing exciting it's nothing interesting I think the Niners could really just, like, put a real number on this team here against Saints. Even with Mack Jones, I think it could be okay. So I don't know. I'm interested to see where this goes. Maybe some more negative Purdy meters might move it even more.
Starting point is 00:30:18 Like a four, I think is pretty interesting here. Honestly, three and a half would be pretty solid on the Niners, even if, again, even with Purdy's injury status on the air, also like a prop look there, like past attempts under. I think would be really interesting for the Niners. Because, again, if they do throw, I think it'll be efficient. If not, like they're just going to, I think they could just jam the ball. 30 times for CMC. Yeah. I mean, look,
Starting point is 00:30:40 CMC got so many touches last week. And, like, Brian Robinson has still got like, what, 10 touches as well. So, like, yeah, yeah, I think it's a good call
Starting point is 00:30:47 the, the, uh, Mac Jones under Propaq could be, could be a thing. I'm with you. Like, I think four and a half, three and a half would be, three and a half would be kind of a smash,
Starting point is 00:30:57 I think. Yeah. No, I agree. And we, we mentioned, too, like, I mean, the Seahawks defense is good.
Starting point is 00:31:03 So, like, yes, the Niners' offense didn't look amazing. But they were playing, you know juan jennings got hurt george kiddle got hurt rickie pierce all was basically the only body able body left catching balls for sure and then it was just c mc so like and it gets a really good seahawks defense so i don't like i don't think we can overreact too much to that at all if anything i think it's almost encouraging that they still ended up winning and like looked
Starting point is 00:31:24 okay yeah i agree i mean i have to watch that one again it seems to be the market is you know uh you made a move there this is interesting to me you're like we started doing this eight years ago this game's off the board right yeah it's not even posted it's just off it's a huge you know they're not even going to risk taking uh you know a possible middle opportunity if this you know we get purty news this is again pre-flop seven why will we not get back to seven i mean i know that kiddle matters but six and a half i don't know i just it's interesting to me that these get posted regularly with with quarterback injury news and that was it was really never the case in in years past it's great download bleach
Starting point is 00:32:10 your nation fantasy app get the injury news before everyone else if he's in or out and then just i don't know hit the slowest moving line wherever that is for you uh that you available so there's a bunch of them and then you can get a couple points of clv you can buy back the other way you can do whatever i mean some books will let you just cash out so you make like whatever a couple bucks just like for free if you really want so um yeah i mean it's an easy way to make money I saw some people actually talking about this on Twitter the other day about how I don't know some people were like poo pooing like injury betting and I just thought it was like the dumbest argument ever I was like yeah it was like you should beat books the real way I was like what do you mean like this is like what do you mean the real way like you know like betting sides and totals at clothes or like making sure that the bookmaker has all the information like no take him for what they're worth like fuck them like what are we what are we doing here like get in getting good and then get out. like that I just like I thought that that was baffling and there was a couple of people supporting this person um and I was like this is I need to get off here before I start you know making the
Starting point is 00:33:14 you know like starting chirping to these people because there's some some real dumb comments on that to be honest that's insane to me like I don't I just don't understand the bravado behind that like does do they give you like one and a half X on like your money because you like you give like it's Obama you know like meme of him giving himself a medal it's like That's exactly what you get. You get nothing for waiting. I mean, maybe in your little, you know, circle jerk like sports betting community, you can talk about how you're just that much better because you don't bet those things and you still win.
Starting point is 00:33:47 Congratulations. Pat yourself on the back. You know, that's, yeah, good job. I'm trying to fill my accounts, guys. I got, right? I mean, I'm trying to withdraw, never deposit, withdraw again. I you know there's there's no like false valor in trying to yeah in this economy too man every dollar matters you know man the tariffs inflation is a real thing you know that's crazy
Starting point is 00:34:16 um falcons wide receiver injuries i think we have to monitor i don't know i feel like they probably both go in a little drake london shoulder issue it seemed like darnel moody was pretty close to going last week. So I want to see what's going on with those guys. Same thing in the Bears' corners. It seemed like they were close to go. I don't know how close T.J. Edwards was to actually playing, but the
Starting point is 00:34:39 Bears' corners both seem to actually be game time decisions. I want to see what's going on there. I mentioned Terry and Arnold. We have some corner issues in Indy. Indy's hosting Denver. The next one I want to talk about here. Shavarius Ward, Concussion Protocol,
Starting point is 00:34:55 came in Monday. After the fact, it said he had concussion symptoms. They put him in the protocol. That seems like he's not playing, right? That's not even like a Sunday. We pulled you out of the game. Let's see how it is. We're starting the protocol a day late with delayed symptoms.
Starting point is 00:35:12 Not great. Jalen Jones also dinged up in that game. Denver goes to Indy two, two and a half. Hey, look, does India have the best defense in the league or does Denver? I don't know. today we feel like you know i thought it was denver but what they did to two in company um what are your thoughts on uh denver and indy they want to talk about an early prop look i mean some daniel jones unders if there's any like uh boost to his prop after just like shredding last week um i
Starting point is 00:35:41 mean anything near 200 is an auto under for me um i mean i even like 175 might be an under like i'm not not even a lie i looked at the cam ward one last week i thought about it and i was like well he could be a baller you never know maybe he figures it out I had like a 50-yard or 30-yard screened of Tony Pollard in the first play, and then finished with like 115 yards, something like that. So I don't know about this game. I don't really know what to do with it. Broncos' offense looked awful.
Starting point is 00:36:08 But I think in this context, I want to, I think that they're a good team. I think they're a better team than the Colts. So probably buying a little bit of a dip there under three. I think it's kind of interesting. Where are you at on this one? Yeah, I like that for quite a bit. I think it's a, you know, it's a reaction line to, but just a bad Miami team. right so we're getting we're inflating the colts based off of of that um yeah look okay
Starting point is 00:36:31 denver denver's defense or denver's offense did not look good but i don't think that they're not good right i trust sean peyton to get it together and i think this is a nice kind of like by the dip spot on on denver not looking sharp and then you know indy just a little bit inflated off of of week one so that to me should be at least three so i'll take anything under three on the the Denver side, the two and a half feels pretty nice. And again, I'm surprised to see we've got some twos out there. So that means there's been, I think, pro-cult sentiment. And I don't say sure, you know, Chavarious Ward matters, but like, I think he matters a little bit. And when they're pretty, they're pretty thin to begin with. They had a rookie they were hoping to start.
Starting point is 00:37:13 He got injured in preseason. He's out for the year. So now they're already pretty thin. They had to pull, you know, Xavier Howard off the scrap heap to put him in the starting lineup. And now they're missing the other two starters. So, could be a pretty nice spot for i don't know about volume for bo necks but efficiency for bo necks i don't know sutton continues to just kind of be not great but really good every game um which is pretty interesting so it could be a nice spot for him too so it in a nice touchdown that that catch was pretty sick but i think he's good i just who do you think is better the ceiling is cortland sutton or michael pitman i think corin sonn i think
Starting point is 00:37:53 own son's better but they i don't know they just remind me of like each other they just like yeah big body outside receivers who can sometimes get open come down with contested catches and that's it like they just they had nothing else in their bag they're not going to like you know go crazy deep down field they're not going to you know get open in super short at intermediate spaces but yeah they're just big and they can catch the ball then they're out there that's yeah good as you know good target earners probably like good wide receiver two on like a strong offense you know right like actual wide receiver one alpha's no no and I both you know I'm a pitman guy but a pinman guy from the jump I like them both but
Starting point is 00:38:36 uh yeah um let's transition to the Super Bowl rematch uh we have you know Xavier worthy injury it sounds like the update is better than we thought I don't think we see him for for this week um touched on struggles for Pat Mahomes in week one on Eagles on the road in Kansas City, about a point or so. Is there a reason why this game is at 325 and not the night can? No, they like to have those, I have those good games in that late window, too, but yeah. Yeah, that's true. I mean, it's always got Broncos, Colts, Panthers, Cardinals, and then that game.
Starting point is 00:39:17 So no one's going to be watching other games. But I don't know, I have no idea to do this game. I mean, I don't like either team, to be honest, at this point. Okay. What are your, what are your Eagles concerns? I think that their defense looked okay against Dak, but CD Lamb dropped 100 yards of passes, basically. And so, that line looks way better.
Starting point is 00:39:44 Otherwise, there's way more a Dory Jackson than I think anyone in Philadelphia wanted. Yeah. like I think I don't know I think the eagles are good not great as not as great as they were last year like defensively and so it could expose them in certain scenarios is this the right one the chiefs are just like there's no way worthy plays at this point like he's he's basically he's opting to rehab his shoulder and build the muscles around his like shoulders that way like hopefully stays back in place instead of getting surgery right now but if it doesn't work that well and he's like not strong enough he's going to have to get surgery in a couple weeks so I think I mean, he could be good to go in three weeks. He could also miss, like, the whole season, basically, at this point. Tough. Yeah, or maybe not the whole season, but, like, to the playoffs, probably.
Starting point is 00:40:30 It would be, like, the turnaround. And, I mean, that matters. Like, they turned to Hollywood Brown who, like, kind of figured it out in the second half. Wasn't pretty early. It was so bad. Like, they were just, like, not communicating right. Bad throws, bad, like, he was dropping the ball. They figured out eventually.
Starting point is 00:40:47 But, like, is that who you want to run your shorts intermediate game through, Hollywood with Brown. I don't know. I don't know if that's really optimal. So, yeah, I don't know. Maybe Eagles are the side here. Maybe I just talk to myself in Eagles, but I don't really love the Chiefs right now either, to be honest. So hurts look good. I don't know. I thought Hertz looked good. I mean, obviously they didn't get A.J. Brown involved, but I think he looked healthier than he did. I think he felt like he was more spry. And I feel like against Chief's team, well, both these teams play a lot of man. So I think there's some quarterback rushing prop angles here in particular Hertz, you know, more from a volume standpoint than
Starting point is 00:41:25 you, Mo Holmes can have some splash stuff with turning their back and stuff. But I've heard I forgot to talk about this too, by the way, real quick. So we over the off season, I don't even remember this, but Jalen Hertz did not attend AJ Brown's like a engagement party. Like there was like a picture of everyone and like Jalen Hertz did not go. And there's been like some rumors of like they kind of beef and like stuff happened. But then yeah, you like didn't go to like it was either an engagement party or his wedding. something like there's like a big event um and everyone else has seen there there's like a picture
Starting point is 00:41:55 like all of all the other crew was there except for jalen hurts so i don't know maybe he just doesn't like him it's possible so that's possible uh some some tea connor some good i miss that i was a deep pull right there i just like i was like i was like sitting at a bar watching the game i know shocker and i was like thinking about like you know what i i remember the something happened in the office since i like did some digging and remembered like oh yeah yeah like this is a big deal but then everyone kind of just like forgot about it interesting yeah i haven't heard that nationally either which is seems like something we would hear on uh you know skip balas yelling about for sure
Starting point is 00:42:32 tweet it out after the show honestly you know start some drama i could do like one of the the dove climbing tweets you know like yeah uh maybe make one of those graphics those new graphics by hilarious where it'll be like um it's just like it's like one word in all caps that like doesn't make any sense really or it's just like funny in the context friendship on the mend or is it you got to have a screenshot of the wedding picture or whatever you're talking about literally where is jalen hurts wow all caps you know it's like an emoji um i don't know i don't think i'm going to stoop that low but i'm definitely going to tweet something on it's kind of funny yeah please make it a thread so you piss other people off at the
Starting point is 00:43:11 same time i know some people get mad for sure um i like philly okay yeah i mean i just I know it's a road game. I know that they're not the same team that they were last year in the Super Bowl. That game was not close. I still, I just worry about the, something I'm worried about Mahomes long term, but I feel like, I feel like we've crowned him and like we can't move off of it, but it's like, man, I want Mahomes late game, one drive, 90 seconds left, give me Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:43:49 give me a full game or a full season like I kind of want Josh Allen kind of want Lamar Jackson I don't know I mean I know that's blasphemous like to say about Mahomes but like part of it is the weapons right it's not it's not peak Kelsey it's not peak Tyreek right so now we are in a different season of Mahomes I don't think Mahomes necessarily is regressed but I think that it's harder to get it done when you know I wanted to see more from Pacheco. I saw way too much Kareem Hunt. I thought that was frustrating.
Starting point is 00:44:23 I think he just kind of caps the ceiling of their rushing game. So just a lot of pressure on Mahomes to be kind of perfect to elevate Taekwon Thornton and Jujsma Schuster. Like that's not great. Yeah. No, I thought, okay, I thought Pacheco looked okay. He just didn't get much work. Like, it was just a lot of cream on.
Starting point is 00:44:40 Like, I thought his burst looked way better than like end of the year last year, where he was just looking at, you know, slug out there. But, yeah, I mean, there are a lot of concerns offensively. I mean, Herbert kind of lit up to the Chief's defense at times. You know, like, it's like, what do we, do we think that that's like in a stick? I think a lot of the stuff that the Chargers had success with, like, some of like, you know, crossers and like drag routes and getting like QJ in space and then like some miscommunications there.
Starting point is 00:45:06 Chiefs Rundee, I think is still probably pretty good. And so, but again, it's like against Eagles and Saquan. So, like, I don't even know how much a matchup really matters that much. Like, they're still going to be probably pretty efficient, no matter what. Yeah. And again, like I thought that Jaylen Hertz, like health-wise, I thought he looked significantly better. And if he becomes a more efficient and effective runner, they dial up more design stuff for him. Again, against the Chief Team that annually plays among the highest rate of man coverage in the league.
Starting point is 00:45:36 There's going to be some opportunities for Hertz on the ground here, even if they're not clicking in the passing game. So it feels like a nice bounce back spot for that passing game too. But overall, I mean, I think Hertz had one of the highest pass rate over expectations. I mean, completion percentage over expectations. for the week. So he was efficient with the stuff that you get done. So, yeah, that's going to be an interesting one. Concerns about Brock Bowers, his health, his usage.
Starting point is 00:46:02 I mean, still really, really, really good. Gino was awesome. I think they led the league in most 20-yard completions for the week. Maybe they were behind Baltimore, but it was close, but they were really good. Any concerns about Brock Bowers of this one? anything football against the chargers well there's some weird like snap stuff early too like some of the preseason usage carried over right to like them playing uh you know just like 11 and like him not really being included in some of that stuff and um which is definitely concerning but
Starting point is 00:46:33 when you're throwing that much he was getting wide open i mean i don't know he's an absolute he's he's so good like it was just like every time you know red zone would cut back to it it would be like you know 30 yard catch you know whatever and i'm like okay you know it's just like bowers is just the man So I don't have too much honestly to add rather than like, yeah, it's a little banged up. It seems like, yeah, the snap count stuff was a little weird, but he's still really, really, really good. So I imagine he's just going to continue to be used, like maybe not an elite tight end level for some reason. But I mean, the upside is there every game because he's just really good. Yeah, I think he's, he is special.
Starting point is 00:47:09 We got two Monday night football games this week, which I don't know, how do you feel about that? Like the stagger, although it's actually staggered by a solid three. hours so it kind of like yeah i'd like it if it wasn't my wife's birthday um otherwise i'm i'm down yeah you got to maria's we're going out for dinner for sure um i got a you know i told her we get home don't talk to me like i'm behind i get two two games to watch but uh dinner i'm all yours but uh yeah yeah we're gonna do we're gonna do something so but you know this is actually different i feel like in years past it was like an hour staggered this is the full three we got three hours yeah actually i don't like that i kind of like to have two games on at the same time
Starting point is 00:47:51 like an hour and a half like half time they have one game and you get the other game i don't that seems more fun i yeah i kind of i kind of agree i mean because the way you set it out to yeah it's late it's a late start who's watching this i mean people on the east coast might just be asleep before the game even starts it's a 10 o'clock start in the east coast like that's east coast jays you get the get the tweet ready jj like that's you know it's lined up easy for you Someone needs to have a talk with these NFL schedule makers and decision makers. I mean, this is just, that's, that's ridiculous.
Starting point is 00:48:23 Yeah. We also have. We also have. We also have a dreaded 9.3 split or on Sunday. Again. Like, why do? Never do 9.3. Like, that's so dumb.
Starting point is 00:48:37 And then when you make one of them, you know, Philly, Kansas City, like, that's, it's so frustrating. Again, I got the two TVs in the quad box. It's an eight I can do. I got to start to bring in the laptop for a game. Like that's, come on. And then I got to go quad box with three games. I got to put in the red zone.
Starting point is 00:48:59 And I got two games at the same time. It's so stupid. Figures out. There's no reason to ever do nine three. Yeah. And again, we're going to get a couple weeks here pre-buy. We're going to get, you know, 10-4 or whatever we're going to get, which sucks as well. So over it is.
Starting point is 00:49:17 On the last injury note that I want to make note of here, both Rams guards, Steve Avila, Kevin Dotson, spraying their ankles. Okay. No, that's not great. I don't know if they're going to miss time, but, you know,
Starting point is 00:49:30 on the road in Tennessee, we were talking about that earlier in the context of Cap Cam Ward. But I don't know. Jeffrey Simmons is still a game record in the middle. You get a team playing with a dinged up center and maybe with a backup guard or two. that's a little tricky to monitor. I would monitor that one before you jump on any program stuff.
Starting point is 00:49:50 Yeah, that's not ideal. Maybe the under in that game is kind of interesting. Yeah, I mean, I remember looking at early in the season. And again, to, you know, kudos to what Tennessee did in week one. They definitely got more pressure than I was expecting that they would get on Bo Nix. But the worst quarterback in league under pressure last year, you know, from a PFF grade, adjust the completion percentage was Matthew Stafford. so um if you're just to see what what happens there i mean puka is such a time we got the full puka
Starting point is 00:50:20 car wash uh on week one two just absolute machine fed left the game comes back in catches another ball leaves the game comes back it's like this is puka like he's just you know absolutely awesome questionable three times a game he got a he got a cut above his head and like it was like he was like bleeding out of his eyes so like the blood was like like dripping on the patch yeah yeah and then he got the yeah get the patch and so then like he kept getting he kept getting wrecked in the head too i was like dude this is like rough and it was like he he would come up and he kind of was like squinting and stuff i'm like is anyone home in there like is he is he okay i mean he toughed it out again just like puka yeah i was way underweight in puka
Starting point is 00:51:04 and like best ball drafts or any season long or i didn't want any puka not because he's not awesome but because it's just terrified of him missing you know a game or two because he just hates to run out of bounds and some for some reason he just always takes these massive shots so good you can just stay on the fields but uh yeah the other i guess um Andrew Thomas for the Giants I would want before making the move I do think the Giants plus six is a little interesting really I mean look I mean I feel like we're overrating Dallas a little bit I think they were solid um i also think it's not to the degree in which minnesota is tricky to plan for but dan quinn also plays kind of a unique style of defense and like russ looked terrible i'm not going to
Starting point is 00:51:54 make any excuses there but i do think erjrew thomas really matters part of it was they got so much pressure and dallas i think is going to continue to struggle to get pressure so if they can't get pressure any you know any rate close to what was able to and And Russ isn't as bad. I think the Dallas cornerback situation, they're both like gamblers on the outside. Doran Blan and Diggs love to take shots. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:52:24 I think six is a lot for a team that has a pretty good defense. And I think it would be problematic and what they could do against DAC too. So again, I would want Andrew Thomas to be active. But I think six is a pretty good look for the Giants. your bags being packed on Russell Wilson won't be that bad That's a tough sell
Starting point is 00:52:43 I mean I think there are definitely some defensive mismatches Like the Giants should probably Have some get some pressure on DAC Like yeah maybe the Giants Or maybe the Dallas defense is not good enough Or anywhere near what the commanders brought I don't know I have very I just have very little faith
Starting point is 00:53:00 I think the Dallas offense might just drop a heavy hefty number on the Giants here on the back end um so get the ball out quick like pickins basically took the night off half the half the day i think that i mean which i don't know he was i think he was against quinion mitchell most of the time wasn't he was like you know he should have caught that deep one actually to be honest but he got it was a p i so i think his box score looks a lot different uh you know if he catches that uh without a p i and it's probably a touchdown too if he doesn't get held so i don't know i think it's kind of i want to keep buying the cowboys passing offense i think this could be another good opportunity
Starting point is 00:53:36 to do it so i don't know if i'm ready to play the six but i i i would lean cowboys personally just i i don't want to keep fading the giants with russ i mean he's he's terrible just let jackson dark cook we get in there and hold a new world on the giants a new world of optimism i mean the sides of totals you want to highlight before we could touch on any thursday night football stuff before you wrap um let's see here i think bucks texins under 42 and a half is interesting. Nick Cayley in his first go-around for the Texans, offensive coordinator, did not look good.
Starting point is 00:54:10 Nico Collins' usage was, I mean, a complete and utter disaster. None of you saw the little like next-gen stats, like squiggly chart or whatever, total shit show. O-line didn't look good. Running game didn't look good. Cedia Stroud didn't look good. All just, you know, big red flags. And then the buck side, one of their lowest success rates offensively,
Starting point is 00:54:30 like, yes, they won, but they didn't look good at all offensively. And so, yeah, it was like just two Emeka, Bucca plays that saved their game, basically. Dimes. Yeah. Baker. Totally. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:42 Which is, I mean, that can get it done. But, again, the Texans defense is really good. Really good. Yep. Right. So I think under 14-after is pretty interesting. And then I'm going to be with you on this one. I think Pat's money line is a good luck here against the dolphins.
Starting point is 00:54:57 Let's go. Barry these dolphins. Like, it's, they got, they're, they're, should. shitty secondary is beat up already like what are we doing here so i don't overreact but i think it's an important spot for new england to get it done it's a tough spot warm weather and uh september is a little tricky down in miami but yeah i like the like the pets as well so uh yeah there's also an injury offensive line injuries to houston as well to your point back on the bucks you know interior offensive line with and you know an injury riddled question shuffling rolls along that
Starting point is 00:55:30 offensive line to begin with so i'll definitely want to get a sense of what that is but yeah i think the under is probably a pretty good look so um yeah thursday football commanders packers basically three and a half right is kind of i think where we're still at uh which i think is is interesting um again based off of i think you know preseason priors total there's 47 and a half 48s there's some 40 and a half's um yeah depending you shop around a little bit too um share sharp stack or any uh i think pop in here what do we got yeah i may as well yeah just popped with the e v tool so again taking the the sharp markets against weak markets here we got tucker craft receptions under three and a half minus 165 at hard rock um you know as i mean two and a half
Starting point is 00:56:18 pretty widely here um for the most part in the market i don't mind that one at all i just i'm not sure how much volume they're going to get i still got to do a deeper dive into this game usually to now is when I start doing like you know some deep dive player prop analysis here Josh Jacobs under receptions is another one popping a lot of stuff on hard rock I mean it's not not that surprising um jane Daniels rushing yards 40 naps rushing yards I mean this is this number by MGM is a good like five yards higher than the rest of the market so like I don't think that's a bad look again you can probably bet it it'll probably move back to the market and then you can bet it somewhere else
Starting point is 00:56:52 in the over if you want to buy back and get a middle maybe um actually receiving here it's under is popping here I kind of like the over on his receptions to be honest at two and a half um we're seeing that here on the prop screen uh that was something that stood out to me two and a half like minus 120 is here minus 125 i'm seeing so he had three receptions last week like he's very clearly the receiving back i think he started he played most of the first quarter bill looked really good but like i mean i don't think they're going to use him a ton in the receiving game and they were going to still see like a bunch of eckler and if if the packers can push the commanders like eckler could have like a six catch
Starting point is 00:57:28 seven catch game like we saw in the playoffs for him so um either that was pretty interesting like like that could be like an interesting like ceiling look for a guy like him yeah i mean didn't been working for us did give us have 10 catches against the packers last week too yeah 10 catches you just check down city garbage time so yeah i mean we're lucky to get there the three for 31 last week on uh on ecler a little bit considering the game script but i think to the point if you know this could be a very different game script um i like the packers i mean Okay. I get questions about commander's defense to begin with.
Starting point is 00:58:02 And like the injury report for the Packers right now is not great. But like, you know, some teams just put a bunch of guys on there. But I think everyone's probably going to play. I think Zach Tom's is the one that would concern me the most. But like, I don't know. I feel like this is a spot where if the Packers are who I think that they are, and like we saw instantaneously the Mike effect is real, right? It's not just necessarily great players, especially in this scenario along the defensive line.
Starting point is 00:58:32 It's not just what they do. It's how they create opportunities for everyone else. And we saw, you know, Devante win in the inside. And we saw Lucas Van Ness and Roshan, Gary. All these other guys were able to work a little bit more freely because of what Micah creates. I think he's going to be a massive impact. So, yeah, I like the spot. I think if the Packers are who we think they are, they should be able to take advantage by, you know,
Starting point is 00:58:54 again a number that's under four at home against the commander so uh i'm on the packers here for sure yeah i like it as well uh that's that's probably a good look i don't no other real like proplex for me in this one i don't think um other than like debo looked like kind of the guy honestly early which is not that surprising matthew golden down at 34 yards is pretty interesting like he didn't run a ton of routes though after like some encouraging preseason in usage and then, you know, rushing yard wise, Bill drops at 41 and a half. Jacobs at 78 and a half. I mean, just like an absolute workhorse had like 19 of 22 carries, basically, or
Starting point is 00:59:32 something like that for a kick. What does any time touchdown? I feel like Josh Jacob just scores every week. Let's see here. Josh Jacobs. Did I miss him already? These are all Washington players. Okay.
Starting point is 00:59:47 Yeah, minus 200. You're going to bet that? it's crazy no but i'm like it's going to start with a minus but i was curious what it is yeah that's funny um wild yeah interesting okay well i mean that's yeah either way a lot of fun stuff in the eve tool to check out i ripped a bunch of random bets get a romo doones day over three and a half catches last uh yesterday yes sir i like minus 110 on on profit um that was great obviously that panned out like it just like it's been fun adding this to our arsenal because i've just like add a bunch of extra stuff to our official plays of the release with the
Starting point is 01:00:23 picks package um and it's going well so far i think i'm up like i don't know two grand or something like that so far um through week one i don't know i got to check my picket little thing there but overall solid week one yeah no i like it's like you said it's a nice little supplement to what we were doing originally and um absolutely loving it just keep it open on one screen and check it refresh it make sure we're good um make sure i'm not missing anything and uh yeah it's It's great. Again, if you were seeing this for the first time, check it out. Go to 444.com slash plans, seven-day free trial for Sharpstack. You can use promo code MTF. If you decide you want to buy it, again, that's going to get you 25% off, which is a fantastic deal. And again,
Starting point is 01:01:04 it gets you access to literally everything we have on the site. So rankings, tools, articles, projections, picks, all of it. So a great resource. Again, what I love too is the middles on the odds screens. Go through the odds screens and finding, you know, best odds. you're going to find some i mean you use the art tool and lock in the profit but the middle opportunities on the odd screen as well when you're looking at the prop stuff is like hmm interesting you'd find some spots where especially when like there are lower numbers like where in terms of distribution you could really be opening up some opportunities in the in the middle section so yeah lots of different ways to use it
Starting point is 01:01:41 and yeah the odds screens are clean love it check it out sharp stack 4.4.com slash plan let us know if you have any questions happy to answer anything for you and And again, we're putting the results on there, too, right? So we're telling on ourselves, how well is it doing? It's right there in the tab for you to be able to look at and check out. So check it up. All right, buddy, anything else? Honestly, not really.
Starting point is 01:02:02 I think we went through some of the other, like, potential prop looks already with like just in the games, added them in there. Went through Sharpsec. I think that was about it. Love it. So move the line. We listen to the podcast, 4-4-4 live on the YouTube channel. Make sure you subscribe.
Starting point is 01:02:17 So you don't miss a show. Again, we're going to be here doing this every Wednesday. at 11 a.m. Eastern, prop drop is going to be on Friday at 3 p.m. Eastern again with high slop, giving out a couple prop looks from each of us, a million dollar parlays. I forgot to share some my uncorrelated stuff from last week. Definitely mixed in some defensive props. It was a good spot for Alec Pierce last week. You know, we had Terry McLaren last week.
Starting point is 01:02:40 I had my notes. Those are really nice uncorrelated spots. We're going to make sure we highlight those next week. So smash the subscribe and like before you take off. Appreciate it for Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks for me.

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