Move The Line - Week 13 NFL Expert Prop Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: December 2, 2022

Week 13 NFL Prop Bets from Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Week 13 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro1:15 Marcus Mariota Prop2:39 Saquon Barkley Prop6:19 DJ Charp Prop8:35 Hurts Prop11:46 Nick Chubb Prop13:03 George Kittle15:47 Jarvis Landry Prop18:24 Jaylen Waddle Prop22:04 Adam Thielen Prop25:12 Curtis Samuel Prop28:42 Amon-Ra St. Brown Prop30:45 Jimmy Garoppolo Prop31:12 Patrick Mahomes Prop 31:38 Garrett Wilson Prop32:17 A.J. Brown Prop32:31 Tackle Props36:56 K.J. Osborn Prop38:00 Q+A Props57:30 OutroGet 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, the prop drop show. I'm Ryan Noonan, back with my friends to talk about the most profitable way, and we think the best way way to bet on NFL football. And that is through player props live 2 PM. Eastern here every Friday. Get your favorite player prop thoughts in as well. If you're hanging out with us on YouTube. Did Noonan just cut out there in the mid intro?

Okay. I was wondering if that was just me. I was like, am I frozen? Is Connor frozen? What's good. We'll do the show without Noonan. So it's the prop drop four for four. Yeah. Well yeah what's the discount code over at four for four connor

yeah discount code next level gets you 25 off of any package for the listeners in there and yeah that's funny i i would i always wait like a minute to make sure that it's not me and then it's them uh before i like chime in and say anything, we have the inmates running the asylum at this point. So I'll get off on props here. I want to run one by you. Cause this Marcus Mariota passing prop is down at one 70 and a half right now. Like it's gotta be right around here or wildly lower, right?

Like there's no going three 50. No, no, it's a, yeah. I mean, it's basically just like how much do they run it's and i don't really think they're gonna have too much success passing the ball so i feel like he could end up in like that 100 120 range i wouldn't be surprised plus no kyle pits too for whatever that matters i mean i don't know i feel like it somewhat limits his upside if for some reason they decide to pass here so yeah i don't think that like there's any massive upside uh with marcus mariotta but yeah i mean are you you're eyeing that under at 170 or what do you think?

Yeah, I'm going to make that my first one for the week. Marcus Mariota under 170.5. You know what? I got to go back to like unders all the time. I've started to go like this crazy over thing like midway through the season, and I feel like it's really been costing me. I've been doing great with unders all year long. Turns out unders are the way you really want to bet. Who would have thunk? Yeah, right. It's funny because I actually

had the same revelation this past week too, because I'm looking at my year long stats and I'm like, whatever, 57% on unders and 47% on overs. I'm like, what am I doing? I'm just punning away money and I'm losing all these close bets. And I was like, I got to stop. So I think my card right now so far on the whole week is like four unders and two overs, and that still might be too much. So yeah, I like that, that first under there and I'll get us started off with, you know, another one as well before Noonan hops back on here. I took Saquon Barkley under 69 and a half rushing yards combined for just 61 rushing yards on 26 carries each of the past two weeks or the past two weeks combined. I just don't really think he looks the same. I think he's getting a little bit worn down here as the season goes along, you know, matching kind of his rookie

workload at this point and now runs into Washington. He's been playing great run defense, fourth and run D DBOA, six and explosive run rate allowed just 4.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs and giants offensive lines getting a little bit healthier. So I think that he should be a little bit more efficient than we've seen in the past two weeks. But another note too, Barkley only out-carried Gary Brightwell 11-5 against the Cowboys. And maybe some of that was a short week. I think that could be it. But still, we're looking at like, I mean, I think that they probably mix in someone

else a little bit more to keep him fresh and tough matchup. I felt like the number is a little bit too high here for Barkley. Any thoughts on him? I feel like he has a good contrarian play in DFS if that's like entirely wrong. But for profiting, I thought the under was kind of a good look. Yeah, I'm with you on that one. And I kind of go back to Washington every single week as it pertains to the running game and how much I liked Atlanta's running game last week. That's more of an Atlanta based thing that everyone who says that when Atlanta goes up against these fierce rush defenses, they know they're going to be shut down, but they're not. That's all they do. And it's so unique when you take a look at

what the Giants do. It's not incredibly unique. There's a ton of teams that play a ton of RPO, have a running quarterback in this bell cow back. The only issue is like, I think you kind of hit on it. Like as a contrarian play in DFS, I completely get it because it's one juke and he's gone. Although he looks like he's slowing down. Doesn't it? Yeah, I kind of agree. It's like early in the season or like, I guess after the first couple of weeks, I mean, there were some just vintage Saquon Barkley runs and I'm like, Oh, he's back, you know? And then we just haven't really seen that lately. So, uh, yeah, I mean, I think it's, it's a solid look there look there. Before we get to our next one, we got a listener question here from Joey Kanish asking for you, Pat, saying, can you ask Pat how good how it feels going from his weekly show with a true professional like Feinberg having to do the show with you two schmucks? Well, there's a lot less yelling on this show, which is not I mean, that's sort of a hallmark of my shows to begin with.

But I like the different perspectives on everything. You guys, uh, listen, Feinberg's just, he's got a big gut, so he's going with the gut and he tends to be right far more often than he's wrong, which blows my mind somehow. But you guys are like, Hey, I'm running projections. Hey, I like unders. And this is just completely new world for me. Yeah, that's a, that's a good answer here. And, uh, you know, Jody Kanish made recently famous by his tweets going viral. His Iranian tweets? Yeah, I thought that was hilarious. I mean, he's getting a ton of hate, but I mean, he's getting now promoted on OutKick and by Tommy Lahren or whatever, or someone else. It is definitely reached the point where it's, you know, reaching the types of media who might actually think that he was being serious and not just being constantly, you know, nagging and joking about, which is just Joey Kanish.

Because it's all just a bit like he's a very normal guy. I know. I know Kanish. He does bet a lot, does do well with that. But his information game, you know, unbelievably successful with national anthems and info and stuff. But other than that, complete clown on Twitter. And yeah. All right. Well, it looks like Noonan, I don't know if he's going to be in or out. So I guess we'll just keep rolling. Maybe his internet died. What's your next prop here? Well, I want to give a shout out to Joey as well. We're both contributors over at the Hammer HQ. And we do fun shows with Pizzola and Cam over there,

Feinberg and Tim over there as well. Just another resource for some fun betting content. I'm going to go to another under. It is DJ Chark, under 40.5 receiving yards in this Lions game. I don't quite know why it's so high. It was a lot like the Terrace Marshall line. At least the Terrace Marshall line a week ago made sense as it pertained to what he had been doing all year long in terms of the past month with P.J. Walker. And, you know, big numbers, lots of targets.

Like, well, now we have Sam Darnold in the game who he has no connection with against a good pass defense. Of course, we're going to go under. I think he had like one catch for 12 yards or something like that. When I get to D.J. Chark this week, I mean, yeah, this game is going to be a shootout potentially. It's indoors on the fast track, but you just go back like DJ Chark is barely playing. And yeah, he's their deep threat on this team. Whatever.

Maybe he gets the one and that's good enough for the over. But like, what can you really bank on DJ Chark for? Maybe two catches in this game. Like I have this line set at like 19 and a half and it's 40 and a half. So big under for me. Yeah. This line looked really high when I first saw it. We played the under 36 and a half on Thanksgiving last week.

And the subs were, I mean, dripping sweat in the chat after he had like a 16 yard catch and three targets on the first drive. And I'm like, guys like unders are not dead until they're dead. You know, it's okay.

Then you saw what he said, one more target the rest of the game. And that was his one yard touchdown drive. And I'm like, guys, like, unders are not dead until they're dead. You know, it's okay. Then you saw what he said, one more target the rest of the game, and that was his one-yard touchdown catch. Yeah, I mean, he's like, his usage is a little bit better, but he's still kind of just rotating in. Like, Josh Reynolds is active. I think at some point,

Jamison Williams will play a role in the offense as well. And so, yeah, I mean, he's there. I think that 40 and a half is probably a little too high. I'd probably put it close to like 35 or 30, given the nature of this game. I think Jacksonville's defense has proven to be pretty bad at this point,

I think, especially the last few weeks. But yeah, that's a pretty good look on Chark unders there. I will... My projection on Chark this week, the medium projection, two catches for 21 yards. Yeah, I know action has him at like 24 and we have him at, let's see here. Let me shift over to our, I'm guessing it's not over 40 and a half. No, it's certainly not over 40 and a half because I mean, that's, that just seems a little bit crazy

given, uh, you know, what we've seen from him here. Yeah, we have him at 32. So that still seems high, to be honest. Yeah, let's roll. All right, next one for me. I'm going to go with an over here. Jalen Hurts over 218 and a half passing yards. I think this number has come down a little bit from his usual number in the mid to high 230s because he's had the last few games,

he's been under 200 passing yards in each of them. But I think this matchup specifically dictates more passing, like an entirely different game plan. We were on the Miles Sanders overs last week against Green Bay, which was a run funnel defense. They're like dead last in run defense and top 12 in pass defense. Tennessee's the opposite. They're a pass funnel defense, first in run defense,

and they're just like average at pass defense, 20th in explosive pass rate allowed. So I think that we see the Eagles probably attack them via like a short passing attack instead of the running game here. And so I think in this spot, if you're banking on volume for Hurts, we're probably getting well over this 218 yard mark. And even if not, I think he still has a chance to hit it against his Titans defense. I mean, if they go in there and just try and run the ball like, you know, whatever, 30

times, 40 times, I think that they're going to be basically dust against his titans run defense but you never know i mean they've been doing a ton more designed runs with hertz but still think that this this is too low on the passing yards we haven't we haven't projected for 236 i have him projected for where are you at jalen hertz i would actually in this game i just think that aj brown is such a bad matchup for this titans defense you know in the revenge factor never never forget that part. I haven't met 238.8 yards in terms of the over under passing for him in this game, but weighed out on the rushing like 42 yards rushing. So, you know, if that boosts up to 80 yards rushing,

it's probably going to take away from the passing game. But just they're going to throw jump balls to A.J. Brown all game, and he's going to come down with all of them. Yeah, I, I think both him and like Devonta Smith, that they do implement like that shorter passing attack is just like Devonta Smith gets open, you know,

really quickly. And, and AJ Brown's able to take a slant to the house there. So yeah, I think that, yeah, I really liked the over on the spot. I actually talked about this on another show.

I was forced to put together like a longer shot bet. So I did a, a par same game parlay on draft Kings. Jalen hurts. Yeah, I know that's welcome back Noonan, uh, to the same game parlay prop job show with your first, uh, bet here, Jalen hurts over 269 passing yards in miles Sanders under 54 and a half passing yards. It's plus 600. So if they're having success passing the ball and not having success running the ball, I think it's, I mean, it's kind of correlated. And I think that in this spot, like plus 600 for both of those is very reasonable.

Any, any thoughts on that? Or am I a little crazy with that one? I like it. It's just, I like, it's funny because Miles Sanders has actually been quite good this year. Just, I love dating Miles Sanders. It's like my favorite thing to do. Yeah. Miles Sanders unders are actually on my list today.

So I was curious. I want to get your guys' thoughts on that at the, at at the end it's wild to be on the internet all day on the internet with you guys we hit the green light to go we start and then the uh the internet does not want to do its thing so uh sorry about that's my spot to get the show off the ground and up and running in here i am and i mean me and pat rolled with an intro we gave a promo code we gave discount. We had a little bit about Joey Kanish at the beginning. It all was well. Oh, I didn't miss much of it was Kanish. So we're good now. Well, the other part of this as well is we've already ran through two picks a piece, Noonan. So you got to catch up. We need two from you.

Two from me. Okay. We'll get started. All right. Let's see. First one, Nick Chubb, longest rush over 19 and a half yards. This is available on DraftKings at minus 110. MGM has it at minus 105. Posted it in our Discord this morning at 18 and a half. I think now that we're at 19 and a half, it is fine. I think over 93 and a half is a spot I'd love to get Pat's thoughts, too, because this feels like one of those spots where it's just like,

we had it with Tyreek last week. We didn't even know what the line was, and're like over but like the texans are didn't hit but they theoretically alpha play and i think this is another spot where last week why that didn't hit his game script kind of got wonky and it could happen here where maybe chubb gets a little bit um you know maybe doesn't get like full four quarters worth of work because they couldn't they could destroy this team texans have allowed the highest rate of explosive rushes on the season. They are bottom three basically in any meaningful run defense metric. Terrible tackling team.

And Chubb is like first in elusive rating, breakaway yards. He's topped this in nine of 11. Two times he's fallen short. He landed on the number against New England and then really struggled against Buffalo. But those are two top seven rushing defenses. Texans are not that in any way, shape, or form. So love, love, love Chubb going over 20 yards at some point in this game. And then number two, I'm going to take George Kittle over 41 and a half receiving yards.

This is minus 115 on MGM. It's juiced up a little bit on DraftKings. I'd probably wait and maybe let it come back down to like a normal price. Like Caesars is at 43 and a half at minus 145. Let's wait until we get a normal number if you don't have access to the MGMs. But I love the spot for Jimmy G and the Niners passing game. Miami has been a sieve against tight ends this season. They are 29th in football outsiders DVOA metric against the position. And then they've just been targeted a lot there. They've seen the second amount of receptions allowed and the third highest rate of targets.

They have allowed 10 more targets than any other team that's played 11 games. Like the Cardinals have been like the premier spot to go against tight ends, but they've played 12 games. This is their bi-week. This is their bye week. So I love this spot. We've seen really two last couple of weeks. Really good tight ends have crushed. Friar Muth, eight for 75. Hawkinson had 80 yards in his last game as a lion against them.

Cole Komet was right on this number. Even Jordan Aikens last week, five for 61 and a score. So tight ends have been a real problem. So I just think this is a really clear pass funnel and Kittle in really good matchups like he had against Arizona a couple weeks ago. I know Connor played that one, has really kind of crushed.

And then you have Debo limited here too. So love, love Kittle crushing in this spot. So I'll have to get your guys' thoughts here. Yeah, the Kittle one, I like a lot. The Nick Chubb one, I just have had no success playing longest anything. So I kind of just stopped. I think that I need to just start.

I need to find a way to analyze those. And I feel like it'd be really profitable to just take the unders on a lot of those, especially like non-explosive attacks. Like Chubb, obviously, for me, is a stay away on any unders. But just in general, those markets, like longest reception, longest completion, I feel like you would probably just blanket bet unders in a lot of that and probably do pretty well, but I don't know. Maybe that's just me speculating.

I really liked the Kittle one. It was on my short list as well. Yeah, I just, I feel like there's so many reasons why it makes sense and it's coming down to, which the market did not move with me with that one, but that's okay. It doesn't mean it's a bad play. That'd be a good off-season project too, Connor,

to see if we can retroactively run some of the longest stuff and see how that would kind of play out. And if we can, where's Sam? Yeah, I'm not telling you. I'll let you tell Sam.

I don't know if he listens to the show, but Sam, you know, shout out to you for all the tools. And that will be a request in the off season from your, your loyal betting team. I'll let you, I'll fall under your jurisdiction here.

So, all right, we're back up. Internet seems okay. Should be all right. Again, if you're hanging with us, jump in the chat, let us know anything that you're considering for this week. We'd love to get your thoughts on some of that stuff and more. We'll kick it back to Connor for number three. Yeah, I'm going to go with number three as Jarvis Landry under 41 and a half receiving yards. This is still minus one 10 at MGM, a little bit juiced up, I think, at DK. But under this in six of seven games this season,

last time he went over was week one, played only 56% of the snaps each of the past two weeks. Now draws Tampa, a pretty tough Tampa Bay defense. It's a little bit healthier. Landry's still limited in practice with an ankle injury. So I expect his workload to remain similar. I think I'd play this probably 38 and a half. Our projections are only slightly lower,

but I don't know. It just seems like the upside really isn't there. So in the majority of games, he's probably going to go under this number. Yeah. I tailed it. Pat, what do you have? I don't know if you have access to your Landry numbers. Oh, yeah.

I got it. I got access. I really got to scroll down to find. Yeah. Is the thing. Let's see here. Jarvis Landry. It's not been great.

That says Cortland Sutton. Now that's because I don't have the Monday night game in here. So I have to rerun everything. I can do that pretty easily. Let's see. Monday night. Oh, boy. Too bad the Buffalo game.

I know we're just doing props, but I made a huge bet on Buffalo last night, and I feel like just coasting the rest of the week. That's always fun, right? It is. A good Thursday night is a nice good start to the week. I just didn't see what people were seeing in New England. Same. And they moved massively too.

We were pretty confused about that. Landry, I have it three and a half for 44, but I'm kind of with you guys. He doesn't get the ball. This team sucks. Yeah, he's just kind of there i don't know 40 seemed like a big ask for a guy a guy like that yeah i mean outside of what was 114 in week one against the falcons it's been 25 22 7 37 33 20 like it's not great he's not the

you know even close to the you know top of the pecking order of targets in this offense so tough spot too against the slot antonio winfield in the slot it's been really good so uh yeah i'm liking that one quite a bit do you think gibson i haven't seen the latest injury report is antonio gibson gonna play uh i think he plays i think you got a limited in today right yes uh yeah you got a limited but he was like returning kicks or something like that that's what i thought he was he was saying i mean back to that narrative i thought he was just like kind of like warming up a little bit um i that's actually part of my next bet though uh as well i don't know if you're is that if that's one of your bets pat uh involving that that backfield no i mean i i would like his over under rushing i would like the over but i don't it's not posted at this point so can't

really go to that although it's going to be like 66, I would guess, right around that number. But I'm actually going to go back to that San Francisco game that Noonan was talking about. Didn't get it with Tyreek Hill last week. It's the first time. It's funny. We always kind of talk about, you know, could he get scripted out of the game? Will he sit on the bench?

I feel like this is the first time this has happened. Like, this happens three times a year in the NFL that they just yank their players five minutes into the third quarter. And good on them for getting out to too big of a lead. All he needed to do was catch that last ball that came his way, and he would have been to the over in just two quarters. So I'm going to go with his teammate this week, Jalen Waddell, over 66 and a half receiving yards.

He's hit this five, six weeks. Just seems like the number's just too low on the amount of volume that he gets. And I don't think, and I can be way off on this, but I really don't think that San Francisco is going to limit this offense. I agree. I think it's a great spot for both passing offenses. You look at some of like the matchup stuff, the Niners, it's not like quite like Patriots where like overall season metrics will tell you

that the Patriots past defense has been terrific. They haven't played anybody. And really outside of the Chiefs who had their way with them, the Niners really haven't gone against anyone either. I think they'll probably be able to get some pressure, although it looks like they're pushing Taron Armstead to play here, which is interesting, but you know, probably a little bit limited with a pec injury, but I'm with you, I think that they're not necessarily up to where their metrics will tell you. I don't think that they're pushing him to play i think he's pushing himself to play probably true yeah yeah i think connor yeah that's a big deal with that yeah that's a big deal for them

uh obviously it just like goes both ways as we talked about this on the other show but it's like san francisco or like miami the narrative has been like oh they just feasted on four straight terrible defenses which is true but then like, like you said, San Francisco, they've been bad against anyone that they play that's good. Otherwise, they played against just horrible offenses. And so I just am really impressed with what I've seen from McDaniel and the scheming. And he's smart enough to know,

okay, my offensive line is banged up. I'm facing a pretty good San Francisco pass rush. And the secondary is good schematically, but obviously has flaws. How do we beat that? i'm confident in assuming rational coaching that to them like doing something good this is where a place where i feel pretty comfortable going with the assumption of rational coaching knowing that they're right you know even last week where they could have just run the ball over and over again they still skewed pass heavy especially early like they and

they got up big and they were still because i is someone who had Jeff Wilson overs, you're up 21 zip, and they come out like pass, pass, pass. It's like, all right, they're just willing to do what they know is going to win, and I think they'll see pretty clearly here that that will be the pass. I took the Dolphins team total over. We have some people in our circle that like that game over. I think both quarterbacks – I think like two attempts is interesting. It's like 34 and a half,

just a good, a decent price, but the juices out there a little bit. I think that's an interesting one too. Yeah. I mean like, I actually liked that a lot. Cause you think about it like,

you know, banged up Jeff Wilson, like, are they really going to just like run the ball a bunch? I mean, Wilson was just cramps. So I don't think Wilson was bad. I think he just was it was

cramps for him but i think like it's banged up most already comes back a little bit yeah i just think that i mean daniel is smart enough to know they are really stout they have great linebackers strong defensive front throw the football you know get it into waddle in tyreek's hands and let them do what they're going to do they're pretty dynamic like jimmy ward trevarius ward those aren't like guys you need to stay away from right right i think a lot of it is scheme there so yeah i like uh i like all the passing stuff in in this spot for sure so all right next uh pat number three for you i just did that that was three for you thanks host i think it's back we're all over. We're all over the place today.

No internet messes you up. I'm also going to do a receiving yards under here. I'm going to go with Adam Thielen under 48 and a half available draft Kings, bet rivers. It's close on Caesars. MGM price is a little bit different, but since Hawkinson's come along here, Thielen has been the first read on just 10% of Kirk Cousins' dropbacks. Hawkinson doubled that at 20%.

We know Justin Jefferson gets a ton. He's the clear third option here. It took nine catches and 10 targets last week against New England for him to get over this number. Really low A-dot. And I really think this Jets passing defense is awesome. They don't use Sauce Gardner to shadow. DJ Reed has been awesome too.

So it's not like Thielen's going to run some stuff against just DJ Reed or Michael Carter. He'll see Sauce Gardner too. The Jets have been awesome against number one, number two receivers. There have been 101 players, receivers, tight ends, running backs that have seen over 40 targets this season. 101. Thielen's 2.2 yak is 98th out of 101. He's not doing anything after the catch here.

He's going to catch it and fall down. So it's going to be a volume play. And when you kind of look at what his reception number is in the market too, it's four and a half, juice massively to the under. So pretty sharp market. Doesn't think he's going to get a lot of volume in the spot either so 48 and a half we're kind of right there we're a little bit below it too again which is rare for us uh in the projections currently so yeah i think it's a a solid look for thielen to to kind of dud out here a little bit uh connor what are your thoughts see the only reason i was really close to like hugging this the only reason i didn't is because i kind of like the over in

this game and i think that both like offenses push each other a little bit so uh I'm not definitely not playing the over four and a half receptions and I'm not playing the over I just think that if we look at kind of how he's turned out with Hawkinson so far it's been like right around this number most of the time and like you said he went under against Dallas had a massive game against New England with the nine catches that took him to get 60 yards. But otherwise, like 25, 49, and 67 against, you know, just with Hawkinson. So for me, it was just a little bit too close to take the under, but I still think it's probably the right look.

Yeah, 67 against Washington, too. It was like a 34-yard catch, which I think is by far his longest of the season, too. So, Pat, any thoughts on Thielen in this matchup? I haven't projected for like 10 uh feeling this matchup i haven't projected for like 10 yards higher than this i haven't projected right around 58. okay flying solo taking under uh you know trying to trying to look for those under opportunities a little bit more uh they're gonna come in the tackle market um i think more than anything else but uh you know i

thought this was a good one and we are cheering cheering for Thielen over – I think we're close, actually. 700 was our season-long number for him, and he's like 533. So he's pretty close. He's 150 off right now. So in whatever, there's five games left, I think. So we're at six games left. So we should get there, hopefully. Should get there. All right, Connor, back to you.

Finish it up. Yeah, my last one. Or any other, you know, this is the spot where you can unload looks or things you're considering and stuff right yeah i've actually had like i don't know there's a decent amount of props that i liked so far out uh i like curtis samuel here over seven and a half rushing yards this is like maybe the most off-brand play of my life but i love it uh samuel had four carries last week with antonio gibson getting slightly uh you know banged up mid-game ron rivera mentioned that gibson probably will not be 100 this week if he does play they Samuel had four carries last week with Antonio Gibson getting slightly, you know, banged up mid game.

Ron Rivera mentioned that Gibson probably will not be a hundred percent this week. If he does play, they said that they're going to like work him back. And he was limited on Wednesday, downgraded to DNP Thursday. And then I believe did practice today, but I'm not sure to what extent,

regardless, I don't expect him to be a hundred percent in the past six weeks to Curtis. Samuel has four, two, four, one, four, and five carries going over seven and a half rushing yards in every single game.

So given Gibson's injury and like they also said that they don't want to increase Brian Roberts's workload, I think that he probably gets in that like three to four carry range and maybe even a season high, which would be six. I mean, even a three to four carry range, it's getting seven yards is like nothing. And even if he ends up with like one or two, I think he can still get there. But I really think that he ends up with like, you know, three plus carries in this spot. It's definitely a unique little play.

I don't know if you have Samuel rushing projections there, Pat. I have him well below, but I don't think I have him inputted properly, to tell you the truth, because I still have Gibson running a pretty heavy workload at this point. I haven't updated for injuries as of ac john wolford is starting for quarterback for the ramps no more bryce it's too bad the rushing prop has hit wolford could run too can he always gets hurt when he runs yeah he can't until he's in the

as long as he's in the game i there was interesting news though it was like stafford was cleared but he's just not playing they're just like throwing in the towel or i mean yeah that's what the bears should be doing to be honest is naji harris actually playing he says he's playing that seems strange doesn't it it does i mean the ramps thing is weird too because like they don't have anything to tank for it's not like they're tanking for i mean they're just keeping their guys alive i guess at this point but like it's not they have any draft capital they traded it all away are you tank to like benefit from an earlier draft position yeah but they're tanking so they can run it back next year with healthy guys yeah you probably don't want two concussions in a week bust you twoy two concussions in a week for, for Stafford.

Not good. So I didn't know Aaron Donald. Yeah. Not a, not a great scene. Yeah. I mean, I I'm really surprised. I mean,

do you guys think Justin Fields probably plays right? I feel like they should be resting him or at least just like one more week. Cause their buys the week after like would make a ton of sense. I just don't know. I don't, I mean, it seems like he's going to play to me though. Yeah.

I think he's going to, I mean, he's practicing practicing in full i don't see why he wouldn't play at this point but it seems stupid yeah how do we approach that because this lines up as a great spot for fields rushing because of uh man tendencies and blitz tendencies of of the packers i can't do it i mean if they go out there and decide that they're going to run him 15 times designed runs i mean they deserve they do not deserve justin I mean, they do not deserve Justin Fields. They do not deserve to have him on the roster because he's obviously a dynamic athlete, but a couple injuries here and there, you've seen what happened to some of these guys where they rely only on rushing, and it just doesn't work out well in the long run.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what it's posted out, but I understand it's staying away, but it's going to feel like, gosh, it's just a bright red buy. It checks all those boxes that we've been hammering all year. It's funny, like to look at the line now, it's down to three and a half from four and a half. So that big indication that Fields is playing. All right, Pat, how about you? What are you looking at or what do you have for the last one?

I don't know what to do with this Lions and Jags game. It does feel like there's going to be an abundance of points here. So I'm just going to go with the safest option that I feel with at least. I'm on Ross St. Brown over 76 and a half receiving yards. I haven't projected for the second most receiving yards of anyone on this slate. And what is this?

Like seven catches for him. If that. Yeah. His reception number is six and a half, juiced heavily to the over two. I love anything Amon Roth. I think he's just a stud. First read option.

He's where golf goes. And this Jags pass defense is horrendous. So, yeah, it's on my list. Connor, any thoughts on Amon Roth? No, I mean, I got to, I think I'd have to dig in a little bit more, but I really think that it's just like,

it's a smash spot for the lions and the Jags here on both sides. We talked about it. I think that like this game could end up having like 60 plus combined points. The total right now is like 51 and a half. It will also wouldn't surprise me for it to just be like a kind of a dud, but even in that scenario,

I think that he could still easily get there. But if obviously this game goes way over, like, I i mean he'll have like 120 yards and like 10 catches yeah i like it a lot i wish i almost would like to get like seven and a half and i'd probably take the over we get a nice little plus money on the receptions this a dot is low but he's still good after the catch too like and if he's getting about 10 to 12 targets with a you know insanely high catchable target rate because of the low a dot like yeah i i'm with you like i think there's i want something in this game i just don't know what it is uh because i do think it's going to be probably a nice little back and forth spot so

this is probably one of those spots to you know piggyback on connor i know he's a big same game parley guy but if you wanted to make a same game parlay with some stuff in this one, I think that you can, can find some creative ways to do so for sure. All right. Let's see, Pat, any others that you're considering you wanted to run through or not really tell you the truth.

I had my four and I felt good about them. Yeah. I like it. All right. A few of them. I'm interested in like a little bit off the board and then I'll give you my fourth. I kind of talked about,

I think the passing is interesting in the niners and miami game um jimmy g over one and a half touchdowns uh miami has the worst red zone defense in the league by far the worst red zone passing defense uh actually pretty stout against the run uh i just i kind of like this spot for for jimmy g it's like minus 120 for over one and a half touchdowns. Not a typical bet that I make. Although the other one that I continue to make every week and is going fairly well is Patrick Mahomes over two and a half touchdowns. There is not a whole lot of dynamic analysis here other than Patrick Mahomes is really, really fucking good at football. And then in big spots like this, he throws the ball a um and they're going to throw the ball

a lot here um so Patrick Mahomes at plus money over two and a half touchdowns that's just kind of the handicap uh he's good and he will probably do it uh someone just asked in chat about Garrett Wilson receiving yards over I like it quite a bit I tried to play it at 58 and a half it moved a little bit uh I think bounced up to like 63 and a half and is now back down to 60 and a half. He's just, yeah, but it's choose to minus 125 on DraftKings right now. He's getting a lot of looks. I like to spot Minnesota is really susceptible against the pass. Gary Wilson might make the card.

I have Amon Raw on the list. Keenan Allen receptions, I think is interesting. They're probably, they have yards posted. Similar to Amon Raw, like I I probably want to attack reception volume here when he gets posted. I think they're probably waiting for Mike Williams to get officially ruled out. And then what do we do with A.J. Brown? Just revenge game there, right?

Overyards. Yeah, 74.5 I think is a pretty good look there. So my official play though, I don't typically get to make official tackle prop plays, but they were gracious enough to post a couple of things here early this week. I spent an embarrassing amount of time this week building out tackle projections.

So no more like speculative matchup based stuff. We went all in, blindly tailed last night the projections told us to take two unders which were uh did not sit easy with me connor um but you nudged and encouraged me to take them and we got home so um we're gonna trust the process here we're going rashad evans uh plays for the falcons middle linebacker uh over nine and a half tackles plus assists this is uh it's minus 110 on draft kings uh posted it in our subscriber discord at plus 100 so get in there i still like it still have a nice value on it he has 10 or more in six of the past seven terrific matchup against the steelers opposing linebackers against pittsburgh

are averaging 23.1 tackles per game. It's the third highest rate in the league. This is also a home game in Atlanta, and that matters because they are a very generous spot for assists. The Falcons are averaging 27.6 assists per game. It is comfortably above the league average rate of 21.6. Now, tackles and assists and how they're issued, and it's just a little bit more subjective than other stats, right? Like binary receptions is like we all see it.

There's someone up in the booth that determines if it's a solo tackler or an assist. So I think there is something from an outlier standpoint on the extremes when we see teams that lean heavy on a home team getting assists whereas like the road team they just find one guy and give him a solo tackle falcons are kind of one of those spots so um falcons at home tend to go a little bit higher than league average so i think this is a spot to exploit overall atlanta scorekeeper issues 1.24 tackles per opportunity compared to the league average just which just is 1.15. I have Evans at about 10 and a half tackles in the spot. So pretty good price.

Rashad Evans over nine and a half tackles. Connor, are you in? I'm in, I'm in. Yeah. Also, I'm very proud of you for playing that under yesterday. You're like, I don't know. It's an under. It's just like my first run. I'm like, just play for half a unit, you know, just like, just put it out there. And everyone, again again the same thing we talked about with shark he has like four tackles in the first like uh you know 20 minutes and everyone's like freaking out and hits comfortably under they actually took away a tackle you said mid-game which don't know how that works but uh awesome you know great news for the under it worked for us at halftime yeah it was uh was, I had, I think I had his initial playing time projection last night was Jawan Bentley on the Patriots at like 78% of the snaps.

I cranked him up to 90% of the snaps, which they had been the season high that he had played. Cause you know, his playing time had been all over the map. And even at 90% of the snaps, we had him at like 6.8 tackles. So we took under seven and a half and he finished with five. Yeah. Cause I, You know, again, subscribers have access to the tackle projections.

You're going to continue to spend just an insane amount of time every week. Now I committed, like I am like married to the injury report on Sunday mornings or like, you know, just before kick to make sure that those are accurate. But I think it's a soft market. I got really frustrated last week. Cause there's like,

I have all these guys that I really want to go for. Guys I give out on the show here is like, let's watch for like, I'm going to get Jack Sanborn, Bears middle linebacker. We have not got Jack Sanborn posted any week. He's averaging 11 tackles per game since the Roquan Smith trade.

They have not posted him. So now I don't want to be beholden to the books and what they decide to post or not. I want to be able to plug in formula because I have the weighted distribution EV calculator that's tied to the projections too. So we can now just pop in the number and it'll tell us if it is a plus EV bet or not. So now we're not going to be beholden to the books, but give us more and give us props

early. So that's the one other Sanborn is the one that I want if he comes from the bears. So I'm going to have to wait and see what happens with projections. Oh, and a four year, a Lukan linebacker Jaguars. It's typically eight and a half.

You're going to be over on a Lukan in that game, play volume in Detroit and Jacksonville. He's probably going to be at eight and a half. I'm going to take over on eight and a half. I have them closer to 10. Nice. I did just, I did just find KJ Osborne under 21 and a half i'm gonna take over on eight and a half i have them closer to 10 nice uh i i did just i did just find kj osborne under 21 and a half yards i just like that seems really low but

what you guys kind of said about how the jets defense works that he is going he's probably going to be the sacrificial lamb to sauce gardener if i had to guess yeah if they're smart they'll just run them over there yeah because we've i've looked there's not a lot of i think sauce's heaviest um which shadow rates is like 40 this year like and that's not even like he's not even shadowing that's just he lined up against one guy 40 of the time because that team sent that guy over there so oh yeah i think that that's probably a pretty good look someone's gonna go under for sure he's beat he's beat that number once in the past six games and that was that weird overtime game against buffalo does it say 21 and a half 21 i like this yeah i like that i like this

uh why did he play 57 of the snaps last week do we know that's what i'm like did he get hurt or was was he is he being phased out because obviously the phase out i think even adds another layer to this as well i mean he could be with hawkinson there i guess it makes him kind of redundant i like it i'm probably going to jump in on that one too so all right i got some uh questions here in the chats um producer sally gonna get me a yes or no it doesn't look like we have a producer sal prop of the week um we've been sal's been slacking you know we got just living off of all of his wins last year. He wanted to retire on top with

a positive ROI. It's hard to do in this space. He's probably sharp. He just wanted to get out of there. No prop yet, but he can pick a random one. We'll get to some listener questions here. My biggest simulated prop is Ryan Tannehill under 30.5 pass attempts.

It says it hits it around a 90 clip i don't know if i believe that that jives though 30 30 and a half 30 and a half yeah connor you've been taking unders on anything facing the eagles this season yeah i i wonder how because a lot of part of my handicap was with jordan davis out like they're like a massive run funnel now he came back he's like lost like 20 pounds apparently in in a couple weeks since he's been out, which is I think probably not good for a run-stuffing defensive tackle. Yeah, I don't know. But if we envision the game as he's not like a massive difference maker,

which I think he is early on in the season, they're going to run the ball with Derrick Henry as much as possible and probably pretty successfully. Yeah. I mean, they don't need him, him though to come into a full-time role that's why they added um you know two guys off the street here so i'm not sure he comes in and has a massive workload anyway it seems like a guy that has no problem putting the way back on you know a couple trips to chick-fil-a and you know maybe some philly cheesesteaks he's probably doing okay all right uh yeah brian's got one that i like quite a bit here um trevor lawrence over 13 and a half

rushing yards uh looks like qbs versus lions are eight to three of the over um good work there cousins zappy and dac um have been the ones that have gone under yeah lawrence doesn't have a huge like design rate a design run rate um typically but like as a guy that will scramble again detroit's been one of those teams we look at you know heavy man heavy blitz again i just think the play volume here i want to find different ways to get access to some stuff in this game uh what are your thoughts there connor yeah i'm into it i was actually looking at potentially an under on that originally, but then when I started looking at how he's been doing lately and just the matchup here, I think the over is a good look.

I'm not saying he's a mobile quarterback, but he can scramble. We saw that at Clemson plenty of times where if things get a little dirty or he's trying to come back, he'll do anything to claw back in. So yeah, I think in a game that we expect to be a little bit of a high-scoring shootout here, I think this is a good look. It's funny because he either smashes this number or it's nowhere close. Oh yeah, that's probably a good call.

I mean, good points about it if they have it. I doubt they'll offer alts on this, but if you find that, worth a look. Yeah, I like that. Is Drew Brees still alive? I heard that was a fake, right? Yeah, I think so. It was all a fake.

It was like a marketing ploy by them. Odd, odd marketing ploy. Very strange to have like someone leak out that he like got struck by lightning, which is obviously very seriously concerning to many of us who like, I don't know, like Drew Brees is a serious, like he was a big part of our lives as a football lives for a long time. You know, I was a little worried about him. And then now they're just like, Oh, you can play these lightning bets. Did you see like the commercial for it after it was like some kind of weird prank? I don't know. It was very odd.

The points bet marketing is weird anyway, right? They have like the one bet or the one ad that they run the most, at least that I see is the dude just on the shitter, just scrolling. And it doesn't even have any, like he's not even doing anything. It just has some like overlays about like, it basically is like showing you what he sees in the screen. Like he's live betting. It's just the weirdest.

And I know that's probably where people do a lot of, you know, scrolling levitants got the bit that the, you know, people build their lineups on the toilet, but it's like, it's just the weirdest thing. It's like,

that's my bit. He's taking from you. He took it from you. I don't know if he took it from me or he both independently came to it, but I used to run the shitter guy line up on my show like three years ago. See? Yeah. I mean,

shitter better is the marketing that's going on over at points about, which is, which is very interesting. So that's strange. I feel like some of the other sports books have done a pretty good job. I like, well, the the the sports book who shall not be named i think does a good job with their you know you make a million bets per day uh show and then draft kings has been you know putting a bunch of uh just a bunch of celebs in front of

anything and that's been working pretty well mgms are a little weird i don't know i've been seeing those they're a little strange with the lion and everything i don't know reminds me of uh the wolf of wall street ad with uh whatever like the you know the company that they had there with the lion it's yeah it's probably not professional jimmy they do the same thing with draft kings like they're like jamie foxx is calling you know barry sanders and kevin garnett to get their thoughts on uh on his parlay this week it's an interesting one all right uh richie, over five and a half tackles and assists, minus 135. Thoughts if the juice comes down? I think I have Grant over this.

Let me take a look. A little short for us a couple weeks ago. Yeah, you know, even at the juice, I have it as a plus EV bet. I have him at 6.53, gets a nice little bonus. Again, a Falcon at home. So I'd probably wait personally to get a little bit better juice. This is probably a good look.

If you play in any of the pick-em sites, Connor continues to mop up on vivid picks. If you're doing prize picks, this is probably available there. It will be eventually two for Grin at five and a half. It would probably be the way that I would attack it if you're looking to add a leg. I prefer Evans in that game,

but I don't mind Grant's playing time is consistent. He basically plays every snap. I have a pretty decent projection on plays in that game too. So Grant let us down. He owes us one. I think this is a week to go back. Yeah, I like that. It's also on speaking to Vivid.

I was checking today with all of our subscriber deposits and like, you can check on like who's played the most money on it. And out of all the people that have signed up, I have played the most money on Vivid out of like all of the subscribers the entire year, which is pretty embarrassing. It's pretty embarrassing. Honestly, I saw that and was like, this is kind of pathetic on my end that I've played this much. But yeah, I guess not surprising given that I've won and just like recycled that money, but still I was like, Oh yikes. This is, this is kind of a bad look for the company.

Soft lines over there. That's okay. Randy wants to know about no props, but he wants to know about Steelers minus one and a half biggest lock of the year. Pat, any thoughts on Steelers laying a point and a half? I like Atlanta, Atlanta, you know, short week for Pittsburgh. I think that every metric would point to Pittsburgh.

And it's actually one of the reasons why I kind of limited my bet on them on Monday night. It's like, I don't understand why this line is this line. This is very obviously Pittsburgh. And it worked out. It was a winner. I feel like it swings the other way this week. That is my non-data specific take on that game just atlanta's stupid they play stupid games and they can just win this by two yeah connor we didn't unpack this one uh on our wednesday show but you have any thoughts on

steelers falcons i mean pat summed it up every metric point starts at pittsburgh so i am the sheep that is taking pittsburgh uh you know i i still i still like them i think in this spot falcons probably an interesting teaser like you could tease them through the three and through I am the sheep that is taking Pittsburgh. I still like them, I think, in this spot. Falcons probably an interesting teaser. You could tease them through the three and through the seven if you wanted to back the Falcons. I think there's a few viable teaser options out there this week that allow you to do that properly, follow the rules. Jonathan Taylor rushing over.

I like carries when it comes out probably because I think they just lean really run heavy. We've seen teams skew even heavier against the Cowboys to avoid putting Matt Ryan in spots where he is going to end up on his back. So while they can for as long as they can, I think you see them go run heavy. And we've obviously seen Jeff Saturday establish it as much as possible early in games when games are still within neutral settings. So more so than efficiency or big plays, I think I probably like overrun carries for Jonathan Taylor when it comes out. Pat, any thoughts on JT? Not really.

I have no real feel for it. I mean, I like the Colts and the points this week. I feel like that's the only thing that I want, except for maybe Alec pierce under 30 yards because he doesn't do anything anymore yeah even pitman unders are probably interesting again but he's just got such a massive target chair on that squad connor how about your thoughts on that one yeah it looks like 75 and a half rushing yards for taylor i would probably lean over but i think that offense as a whole is just kind of a stay away from me i was looking at considering a mad

brian under for the reasons you mentioned but I hate betting unders in that guy because he just like, you know, it doesn't matter. There's two minutes left. He can drive the entire field with 15 dump offs. You know, as long as there's more than a minute left, he can bust any under nothing is safe. I, from that same game though, it looks like there's some props up for Pollard and Zeke Pollard at 65 and

have Zeke at 52 and a half. I don't really understand the gap that much. I feel like the only reason that Pollard was like, he, you know, was playing more was because Zeke was injured. And then now they only had two more carries. Zeke played better than him last week.

You know, on a short week, now a full week recovery. I feel like it's probably going to be at least split. And I know Pollard's technically more explosive, but I don't know. I feel like the gap should not be like 15 yards. Well,

I think you could kind of look at it the same way of, there's such big favorites in this game that there might just be enough to go around for both of them. True. Yeah. Yeah. And Zeke gets a lot of the short yardage stuff where Pollard's between the twenties a lot of the time.

So his potential for breakaway plays from those parts of the field, like Zeke might out touch Pollard, but the maximum, I mean, out touch Pollard but the the maximum I mean especially if they're near the goal line up on she might see Zeke with six carries from inside the 10 yard line you're not really piling up a lot of yardage from there that'd be my guess that's a good point yeah that's a good point for sure Zeke's looked okay coming back to I don't know maybe the time off is allowed him to come back a little bit more spry i i don't uh i don't disagree or the colts have been decent uh run defense on the season but again i think the

volume is going to make up for any specific matchup concerns in that spot um brian robinson rushing overs from sullivan um yeah i mean i think we need to get a real clear understanding obviously what's going on with anton with Antonio Gibson before we make those plays. But obviously an advantageous matchup against the Giants who have been letting everything kind of go. It's just amazing that that team is still seven and four in the playoffs if the season were to end today. But again, without knowing what we know now, Pat,

any thoughts on Robinson? I know you talked about being interested in Gibson. Well, I mean, I'm not interested in Gibson. I'm interested in robinson i think i have every draft kings lineup this week and even if gibson plays i still like robinson connor any thoughts on this one uh on robinson no i mean i think the over like i think that he should see like 18 carries 17 18 carries so i like attempts over i think rushing over is fine um yeah, I mean, the over on him and Samuel, I think, are both great looks, to be honest. I was just waiting.

I didn't see a Robinson number. Did you say that there was one? I don't think there is yet. But I think carries is probably stronger, though. There's one on prize picks. I think it's 66 and a half. Let's see. Yeah, 63 and a half, which is an over I like.

Yeah, we have 72 and a half. It's 17 and a half carries, basically. So, yeah, I don't think the carry number gets that high so i do think carries is probably an interesting look as well it's just i have robin i have robinson 13 carries for 65 yards and that's assuming gibson's like full go yeah yeah what do you what do we have for same we have well we have gibson for seven carries for 30 yards. I mean, that's about where I – honestly, that's about kind of where I see him if he does play, like in that range. Justin Fields, off the injury report.

Damn. Wow. Okay. I just want to see what the number is. If it's like – if they put it back into the 50s, I mean, I think I have to take the over. Again, we were getting into like the mid 70s doesn't this feel like one hit and he's done you're probably right he had a separated

shoulder seven days ago but now he's off the injury report give me a fucking break he didn't get his uh uber eats delivered last night either i don't know if you saw that he was pretty pissed off piss i'd be pissed too yeah 90 of uber I mean, yeah, that's only really like 20 bucks worth of food. That's true. The fees are outrageous. Yeah. I just stopped using it so much like early pandemic, all about it. And that now it's just like, nah, you know what? I actually will go pick that. Like it's, it's worth my time to pick this up. Wor worst time ever is my wife was in the hospital and late night uber eats delivery go downstairs into the like the you know main lobby and i'm just tracking it like oh your drivers arrived and i see the lights come up and i see the car it matches the car and the car drives

past the hospital it's like they had to like make it look like they got to the spot and then they kept my food oh no and it was like good one of those 9 30 at night and then by when i ordered it so by this time it's like you know 10 50 everything else is closed i can't reorder anything else everything is done for the night and it was just the absolute worst i ended up having to jump through all the hoops to get the refund but it's like you had, you drove all the way to the hospital. You committed so much to keep my freaking Chipotle or whatever I had. That was just the absolute worst. So don't be that guy.

I have found they're usually pretty good for like, maybe it's because I have like super gold tier status at Uber. If I tell them anything is wrong with my meal, they're like instant refund. Yeah. Just an email. It's like, no, I didn't like this. Okay, sir. Have it back. I'm sure the Canadian drivers are nicer too.

You know, just in general. No one's going to do that up there. Trent Shurfield has beat his prop number in five straight games, by the way. They've started using more than just Waddle and Tyreek. I mean, not much much like they're still obviously very narrow target tree but like at least like surefield and then cedric wilson i believe has been getting involved like a little bit yeah well he was more he was more involved

like when they were in their blowout situation yeah i mean what are we getting for Shurfield here? 20 and a half, I think. Revenge game, too. Oh. Just another one of the Niners that randomly plays for the Dolphins now. Let's see. Yeah, I mean. 22 and a half at DraftKings Sportsbook. Juiced a bit to the over.

But, yeah, he's been above 22. And, yeah, five straight. Yeah, almost 70% route participation last week's got like a really healthy or nice especially last week pretty healthy a.2 so like he doesn't have to he can do this literally on a catch i i wouldn't look too much into last week because he started being used a ton after all the starters were pulled sure last game before though 64 59 yeah the. Yeah. The week's pre. Yeah. So like he's been,

he's been in the mix. So not a bad look. They given us a Juwan Johnson numbers. I know he's been used more and more for sure. Yeah. Except for the one week I bet on him. I think he had zeros. That's always fun.

Let's see. We're getting Juwan Johnson. I think we do have Juwan Johnson posted. No, not Juwan Johnson. Yeah. Jennings Jawan Johnson. Jennings. Jawan Jennings?

Jawan Johnson's the guy who plays for the Saints, right? Saints tight ends. Yeah, I'm sorry. I'm thinking Jawan Jennings on San Francisco. That's who I thought you were talking about too, and that's who I... Yeah. I thought we had Jennings posted. We do.

21 and a half right now. 21 and a half? Yeah. Pretty good number. I have him for 28 receiving yards. Yeah, that's not bad. And Debo a little bit banged up. Yeah.

Remember all those suckers that took Debo in like the second round in fantasy drafts? Oh, man. Yeah, they were the rake. That is donated. That gave us people in like the third round although i took cam acres in the fourth round so i'm also an idiot yeah i ended up with a lot of gabe in best ball but like when it was like fifth sixth round he's starting to get fourth round uh has not been paying off but yeah look at jennings i mean 60 57 62 so pretty solid

you know part-time usage but pretty consistent and the target share has been solid when he's been out there 21 target per outrun um yeah i again my leaning pass that being catch one of jimmy's uh two touchdown passes in this game and be very happy so yeah i i did him on uh monday night football he was uh zero catches on two. But in the games surrounding that, 49-40, 24-18, 45, like he gets his three, four targets a game, and he's used pretty far downfield. So I can see him hitting it over if it was low enough. Let's see. Javon wanting to know about Zay Jones, four and a half,

chasing the dragon here after Zay Jones beasted last week. Again, we do like this game. We've talked about the game environment being pretty terrific. Connor, how about you? Any thoughts here on Zay Jones beasted last week. Again, we do like this game. We've talked about the game environment being pretty terrific. Connor, how about you? Any thoughts here on Zay Jones? Does not feel like a Conrad Allen play. No, I can't.

I just can't. Yeah, I don't know. I just have no real take on this, to be honest. Like, it just seems like he's, I know his role is good. His usage has been good and he's been performing pretty well. But for me, it just seems like Zay Jones

is just still kind of an enigma. Maybe I'm just like, you know, too late on this, but I just don't really not really into it. He hit 10 receptions in week three against the Chargers. And the following week, he ended up with three catches for 11 yards. So 11 catches for him coming off. He's beat this number in three straight, by the way, five, eight and 11 in terms of receptions 14 10 five targets he runs pretty safe routes so i think i would like the receptions more than the yardage i just i have a hankering this is a big christian kirk game hi christian kirk here too it was interesting last week though uh zay jones had 14 targets uh i saw this for pat

karain um all 14 came on Trevor Lawrence's first read. So it seemed like they were scheming to get him the ball last week. But Zay Jones right there for the season obviously leads in first read rates. And in the snap against Detroit has been pretty advantageous. So yeah, I think there are numerous ways to go in this spot. I just have to pick a lane. There there are a few it's one of them zay jones um you know plus money makes it interesting too it looks like oh maybe it's plus 112 which makes it a little bit more interesting so um am i missing something here what about dallas goddard from john um tell scotter is

hurt he's back right i thought he was out right yeah so john what about the season or at least on ir right he was placed on ir i didn't think that he was back though can't be according to this he has a positive shoulder update uh he's not eligible to come off injured reserve until december 18th okay so we got two more weeks it looks like so under under on john on the house stay away won't cash uh can't bet it so all right sorry i failed you guys as a host this week i apologize i let everyone down a reminder i'm sure the guys did a great job telling you up front four four dot com plans. Discount currently because we're more than halfway through the season,

but next level will get you an additional 25% off. And then you could find all the great stuff that Pat does on the Mayo Media Network. Pat Mayo Experience podcast. What cool stuff's coming on the feeds currently, Pat?

Well, DraftKings show went out earlier today. Obviously, the spread picks game by game breakdown, the best bets of the week, that's all available both video and audio. At the moment, all of an injury update and top prize picks coming on Saturday afternoon

once I get some more clarity on some of the injuries, and then I'll be live 7.15 p.m. Eastern time, sandwiched in between those late games and the Sunday night game. Recap in the week with me and Cust, and this week, Ben Raza is everyone's favorite. Ben Raza. Ben's great.

You can't hate Ben. There's nothing... Just chills. Just, yeah, good vibes with Ben. Connor, what's going on with you? Props? Yeah, props, props, more props. Also, I believe your guy Tambo is at the beach.

What is it? King of the Beach? King of the Beach, yeah. I had to get Chris Meaney to fill in for Tambo today. He's off two of the next three weeks. Cause he's in San Diego for king of the beach this week. And then two weeks he's in new Orleans for the fantasy football world championship.

So, you know, he might win like 2 million bucks and never want to do the show again. He's been winning money for a couple of years. I think he's still doing the show. So I think he's probably good to go for you. So he's been, he's been printing.

So good luck to Tambo. Take home some cash. You can subscribe to the podcast and you can get a piece of the action. Is that still going on? That's this week? Yeah. So we're going to figure out the best way to allocate it. We're going to,

you know, you have to sub to something, join something, and we might just run like our own free tournament just do it that way interesting yeah so he has to win the money first yeah someone feels inevitable which is wild if he comes first second or third he's giving away 10 of the winnings to the pme viewers so you might want to start tuning in now so you can find out what's going on. He might win 250K this weekend.

Yeah. We'll get a piece of that. Maybe it's 5%. Now I can't remember. It's up to $10,000 that he's just going to give away if he hits it big. Good stuff. Check that out on Pat's channels. Again, good stuff as always.

Of course, I'm going to get a frog in my throat to finish because that wraps up a perfect show for me. Perfect game out here. So for Pat and Connor and Raya, we will see you all next week.