Move The Line - Week 14 NFL Prop Bets | EXPERT Props, Predictions & Picks

Episode Date: December 9, 2022

Week 14 NFL Prop Bets from Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. They share their top Week 14 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro1:09 Kendall Hinton Prop3:12 Mark Andrews Prop5:02 Darius Slayton Prop6:14 Devin Singletary Prop7:49 Patrick Mahomes Prop8:12 Tom Brady Prop11:32 Daniel Jones Prop12:32 Austin Ekeler Prop14:29 Mike White Prop16:37 Davis Mills Prop 17:24 Jeff Wilson Prop28:36 Nick Bolton Tackle Prop41:30 OutroGet 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show. Our normal host Ryan Noonan is out this week with a brutal sickness that I'll spare the listeners the details of. So I'll be filling in. But joining me today, as always, is Pat Mayo. Pat, it looks like last week's tech fiasco with Noonan dropping out on us mid-show was just a test for this week. See if we can hold on the fort. What do you think? We'll be fine, right? I think so. I think it was the test run. And now we're far more equipped rather than us staring blankly at a screen waiting for him to talk. Yeah, no, a lot better this time around. We have an intro. We know what's going on. We don't expect Ryan to come back and save us at any point. Unfortunately means no tackle props. I am not quite at his level. I'm not grinding tackle property, but I think we'll be able to,

you know, do enough, have enough plays to make you guys some money this week. But before we dive in, just want to remind you guys, please smash the like and subscribe button. Takes two seconds, helps us out a bunch. And yeah, I mean, makes a big difference for us. So let's get week 14 kicked off. Pat, what is your favorite? What is your first player prop of the week? Well, like my DJ Shark prop that got extinguished in one catch last week. That's always fun to have. Who saw that coming? Not me, apparently. I'm going back to an under on what I think is a pretty lofty total from a guy who he can most definitely get there based on the situation. I'm not going to pretend like he cannot

because he did it in two straight games against Tennessee and Vegas just less than a month ago. But since, even with the injuries at hand, he hasn't really been anywhere near it. So I'm going to take Kendall Hinton under 38 and a half receiving yards. Essentially what happened when Cortland Sutton went down last week, and we don't expect him to play this week against the Chiefs, although primary passing situation could be good for the target volume, whatever.

Dulcich ended up being the receiver too, not Kendall Hinton. He was sort of phased out once they knew they didn't have Cortland Sutton. Hinton did most of his damage while Jerry Judy was out. Obviously, Jerry Judy has returned. So Hinton is no longer playing that role. It's very much akin to what we saw with Josh Palmer earlier in the season. When he's filling in for Mike Williams, it's a great scenario. When he's filling in for Keenan Allen, that's not really what he does well. So what we're seeing is Hinton doesn't really fill in for Cortland Sutton all that well. He fills in for Jerry Judy at like a 50% rate of what Jerry Judy was up to. So I just look back last week, you know, one target,

11 yards, that sucks. He had nine targets a week before that, but only 35 yards. He's not who they're taking shots with down the field. So hopefully again, this doesn't get extinguished in just one play, but it feels like it's going to have to be an awful lot of volume for Hinton in a situation where I don't even know how much he's going to be on the field. Yeah. It's crazy because we don't look at each other's plays before the show. And that was my second play. And so just to add on to that, I mean, I totally agree. And it's almost like if you look at PFF, you can see that he only played 11 of 40 total snaps in the slot last week with Sutton out and Judy in and Dulcich man in the slot. So you're putting six foot 195 pound Kendall Hinton on the outside. Like he's not going to win. So he's not going to get targets. He's not going to win. Saw just one target last week. So like you said, yeah, probably not going to play much.

Doubt he sees many targets. So yeah, I absolutely love that under. And I mean, Broncos offense is just so anemic. Like taking an under on a guy like that at this price, I think is a fantastic look. There we go. One for one already. That's easy stuff. Absolutely love it. My first one is going to be an overplay. I took Mark Andrews over 55 and a half receiving yards. And a lot of this has to do with Tyler Huntley starting a quarterback instead of Lamar Jackson in the games that Tyler Huntley played last year. Mark Andrews had 73, 115, 136, 89, and 85 receiving yards. Then last week he went four for 53 with Huntley playing on 86% of the snaps.

So I think at this spot here, you know, Andrew's prop is being priced as like Huntley is like even or a downgrade. And I think he's a slight upgrade. We also saw in preseason to Tyler Huntley targeted Isaiah, likely a bunch out of the tight end position, kind of just in those short intermediate routes there and just seeing a ton of targets. So I like the over here. I think ladders are in play too. The matchup isn't anything spectacular, but it's also not, you know, really imposing either. So I think that that over is a decent look. Any thoughts on Andrews? Yeah, I like the Andrews over and I like the Friar myth over. The problem is I'm looking at DraftKings Sportsbook right now and there are no Pittsburgh receiving yardage totals released at this moment, but that's one

that I will like going forward. Yeah, no, for sure. That's a great look as well. I was doing another show and I have to do a same game parlay and I did Andrews over 85 and a half receiving yards and Fryer-Muth over 29 and a half. It was like plus 400 on DraftKings. So, you know, I think that that's an interesting way of playing it because I agree. Fryer-Muth is also a fantastic look here.

What is your second play today i'm just going to go back to the well this has hit six straight weeks it never goes up and yes this matchup is not good for darius slayton but 46 and a half receiving yards like they legit take six deep shots to him a game and he comes down with like two of them a game so that's good enough right there he's averaging somewhere just north of 70 receiving yards a game. We're getting 30 over that. I know that the projections might not like it. You might look at this matchup and say,

eh, it's not very good, but they're almost a touchdown underdogs to the Eagles right now. So you have to expect a little bit of an uptick in passing in this situation. So I really like the over again on Darius Slayton. Like this might just take one. That's it. Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, we have 3.3 receptions for 58 receiving yards projected.

So we lean over as well. It's just one of those things that volume you can get there. And like, especially with Saquon now banged up, potentially not even playing. I don't know how they're going to move the ball elsewhere. So I think it's going to have to be probably through Slayton coming out with a big player too. So yeah, I think that's a good look there.

It's funny because my projections have him 10 yards below this 3.1 catches for 36 yards. And I just think that's wrong. Wow. Going against the grain there. I love it. That's awesome. Well, OK, so you took my second one, but I'll have another one here. We'll go with Devin Singletary under 54 and a half rushing and receiving yards. I did the combo here. He totaled 48 combined against the Jets last time around, but that was the lead back. Last week, James Cook out-touched Devin Singletary and Hiem Hines saw a season high in playing time as well. And accordingly, Singletary played a season low in snaps,

ran around on just 32.4% of dropbacks, seeing only two targets, catching zero of them, a season low as well. So I think if we play the under in the combo, if Hines is playing a little bit bigger of a role, I know he was on the field with them a little bit of times. And then James Cook is playing a little bit bigger of a role

in a game against the Jets where they didn't play well last time. And I think that there's a chance they don't play well again. I know that there's a big disagreement there versus the spread, but still, I like the under there. Any thoughts on Singletary or this backfield in general?

I don't know what to make of this backfield. Like, I've heard a lot of, oh, this is James Cook's backfield now. I don't know if I necessarily agree with that. That could have been a one-off in a game. It could be true. And like you said, Hines is playing more now, but if there was a switch back to Singletary for this contest against the Jets, wouldn't be super stunned. So that is a pure stay away for me. Like I have no real lean over or under. Yeah, no, I get it. And

I have been burned multiple times by reading into these situations thinking, oh, it's this guy's time. You know, it's time for him to step up. They showed us last week. I mean, the Rams flip flop every week and you know, maybe the bills will too, but I feel like in this situation, there's enough, there's enough outs in the under uh but i definitely understand the stay away there uh all right let's play number three for you play number three for me i'm gonna go back to that denver and kansas city game and i'm gonna say that the pass rush and the coverage for the broncos is gonna be pretty decent here as their defenses continue to step up all season long. So I am going to take an over of Patrick Mahomes,

16 and a half rushing yards in this game. I feel like he's going to have to pick up a few first downs this way. And no one really ever expects him to run. So once he gets some open space, he just kind of jogs for 20 yards. So I think if he can get to like three to four carries, which should be in his well within his bell curve of the highest point this week, I think this is an easy over. Yeah. The, uh, we have him for like 24 rushing yards. And I think the reason it's so low is because he tends to run more in tougher matchups as do most quarterbacks because, you know, a little

bit more, I don't know, I guess intensity, you know, he's really trying to, trying to put his body in the line a little bit more, but like you know, I guess intensity, you know, he's really trying to, trying to put his body in the line a little bit more, but like you said, like if the coverage is good, he's not afraid to just scramble for 10 yards with no one touching him. And so I think in this situation, especially that's a fantastic look here because Denver's past defense, well, they are awesome. I'm actually a little worried about them. Have you seen them kind of like, not giving up, but just like, I don't know, playing not as well. I feel like they're, they just haven't been the same lockdown unit they were in the first few weeks. Have you noticed that at all? Yeah. But I mean, a lot of it probably has to do with the competition that they've been going up

against as well. Right. True. Yep. Yeah. That's a great point for sure. Awesome. All right. Well, my third one is going to be Tom Brady over 37 and a half pass attempts. The Bucs continue to fight for their playoff lives, and I think this will be no difference on the road against San Francisco. I assume this line is just derived from the game being a pretty low total. It's only 37, but that doesn't matter much for Brady who's been playing a ton of low-scoring games as is.

38 or more attempts in 9 of 12 games so far this season, and the only time he has fewer than 40 pass attempts was in dominant wins over Dallas, New Orleans, and then a run centric win over Seattle. And then San Francisco's run defense is one of the second best in the league and the Bucks right now, three and a half point underdog. So I don't expect them to win in a dominant fashion. I don't expect them to try and lean on the run here. And now we're getting signs where Leonard Fournette was limited participant practice yesterday, fully out this week.

So like, are they really going to just go super run heavy with Rashad White? Maybe, but I really struggled to see that. I think they could go with a quicker passing game here. And if they're down at all, I mean, it's going to fly over this total here. Any thoughts on Brady here or this game? Well, I don't think you can run on San Francisco is the big thing. It's can they sustain enough drives for him to get to that passing attempts number?

I think, I mean, there are two, my next two, I mean, I actually gave five this week. Cause you know, Ryan's not here.

We have to add to it. There are two more passing attempt props that I like more, but this was when I went through the passing attempts, this one, what do I, I think I have it rated out as probably the highest of anyone, except for maybe one more let's see here attempts this week yeah brady number one 38.4 is what i haven't projected

for but this goes i mean i really like san francisco in this game so if that slant gets more in my favor if i'm correct about that i like the minus three and a half which means that they should be leading by like almost at least a touchdown this entire time. Take running out of the equation. That could be 50 very quickly. Oh yeah, no, I totally agree. And it almost like when I saw it, it was puzzling because he's just been flying over this number consistently. And in this spot, like you said, the matchup, like they might come out pass heavy.

And if they don't come up as heavy, there's still a chance that they get pass heavy, even just through game script or essentially not being able to run the ball. So I think there's a lot of ways to win this one for sure. But yeah, I have like five or six total props this week as well. So we can just keep rolling on that. What do we on pick number four, four? Yeah. Yeah. So it's a, this, I mean, I don't know if this is my favorite passing attempts one. I don't know. It's my favorite prop of the week, but Daniel Jones over 28 and a half passing attempts. He's been over this number of five or six weeks anyway well they've started to kind of shift their season start losing a little bit more being again almost as a touchdown underdog in this

game if philly can just jump out to a lead this is this might fly by in the first half wow yeah i i didn't think about that too especially now with saquon barkley banged up a little bit uh i mean said his neck was sore. He was just officially listed as of two minutes ago, a questionable for the game. I mean, yeah, he's probably fine. He'll probably play. But I doubt that we're going to see like 25 rush attempts too. Plus the Eagles got back Jordan Davis.

He only played six snaps last week. But as he continues to go back into his role, like this Eagles run defense was good when he was healthy. He got hurt and they became like one of the worst run defenses in the league for a little bit. And so now with him back, like, I mean, they're going to be half to pass a little bit. So yeah, I like that one for sure as well. My fourth one, Austin Eckler under 48 and a half rushing yards. I would play this to 43.

He's gone under this in nine of 12 games this season. Now matches up against the Dolphins defense, ninth and run D DVO way. So, you know, fringe top 10 there. And he's only gone over this total against Houston. Who's 28th and run D DVO way Cleveland 31st in Kansas city was 18th. So the Dolphins have a solid run D, but I think that there are a lot more exploitable through the air, which I expect the chargers to focus on with Mike Williams likely coming back as well. Not to mention Austin Eckler only out carry Joshua Kelly last week, 10 to seven, and has seen 10 or fewer carries in four of the last six weeks. So I think kind of there's like volume concerns. There's some efficiency concerns, and there's also some game plan concerns, whether they might

just go past heavy here as the most optimal approach. So any thoughts on Eckler this backfield here? I think that makes a lot of sense and yeah you have to think of it one of two ways what's one of the reasons why Miami's run defense has been a lot better I mean when they've been up in games they've been up by a lot in games and therefore you just do not run against them that's very possible this Sunday night against the Chargers based on like their profile especially in the first half of what they've been doing and how good Miami has been either in the first half or as we get later in the game, which is really weird.

But I think it's the split that you're talking about, be it Spiller, be it Kelly. I mean, it was Sonny Michel for certain points. They do seem somewhat dedicated to giving others a chance on the ground while even having Eckler on the field at the same time. It's very clear they just want to use him as a receiver. Right, because he's uber talented as a receiver. It's not like he's a bad runner.

It's just like, do they really want to bang Austin Eckler between the tackles? Like, you know, 15 times, 20 times a game, probably not. So,

you know, it makes sense to have one of those other guys in there to be able to help, you know, kind of mitigate some of the workload. And he said it before the season. And now at this point in the season, I mean,

we're 13 weeks in week 14 coming up. Like they can't be handing the ball off to him like 15, 20 times. Otherwise he's not going to last. And he's obviously a very important part of their team. So what else you got for, for today? I have Mike white over 37 and a half passing attempts. The jets this season, when Zach Wilson isn't starting and they trail in games,

I think they're averaging somewhere around 52 pass attempts a game. When they had Flacco in, it was 60 attempts in one of these games. We saw it with Mike White last week. They were trailing to the Vikings. What happened? 50-plus pass attempts. The game where they beat the Bears and led the entire way, he only got to 28. Now, the number is 37.5.

Obviously, that'd be way under if you think that the bills are going to take the lead if you trust the spread in this game he's going to throw 50 plus times oh yeah and it's not like it's uh it's not like it's a seven point spread or a three point spread it's a 10 point spread and the bills are 10 point favorites it's very very likely that they're up and that mike white has to throw it's kind of interesting though because we go back to last year we look at this game between Mike White and the bills where he did end up having to throw a ton, I believe it was 44 times, but this was like the death to Mike White game. He threw four picks, you know, like people, there was the same kind of rumblings about

Mike White being the guy. And then, you know, through four picks, obviously they were playing from behind, wasn't able to get it done. And, you know, then he ended up never playing again the rest of the season, but I think he's playing a little bit better than last time. Obviously there's way more weapons, you know, Garrett Wilson, uh, Tyler Conklin, you know, plenty more weapons this year and Elijah Moore is alive and well, you know, so I think that in this spot here, like you said, the over on the temps is interesting. You're not touching yards. Are you, I feel like efficiency could be a little bit of concern. It could be. And part of the reason with the attempts is that he's just not really airing the ball out at all like all of his throws are like five yards down the field just

leads itself to first downs passing attempts and even in that game when he threw the four picks last season 44 pass attempts yeah no that's yeah that's great that works perfectly for the bet there uh for sure and yeah i feel like he could be slightly efficient but one of the best things about mike white is literally he just takes what the defense gives him. And so last year it was nothing. And, but this year the Buffalo defense has been a little bit more forgiving. So still a chance that he's able to be efficient as well. My next one here is something that I just played Davis mills under 190 and a half passing

yards. Uh, he's gone under this number half the time already. Now we'll be without Brandon cooks without Nico Collins. Most likely it gets a Cowboys past defense first and past the DVO way. Uh, I also expect the Texans to probably go run heavy regardless because that's the Cowboys biggest weakness. And it's what the Texans like to do, uh, when game script is optimal. So, you know, until they get fall behind, which is inevitable, uh, you know, I think we'll probably see a run heavy approach. And then from there, I don't expect them to be efficient at all.

I mean, Davis Mills has shown that he's essentially a, some of his parts quarterback and with no parts that it's tough to see the moving anywhere. So any thoughts on Mills? Are you scared about the volume potentially get him just over this number? Nope. Not scared whatsoever. This was one I had shortlisted myself.

So I really do like this one. I'll even throw, I'll throw a six that yeah, I'll run this one by. Let's go. All right. Jeff Wilson over 40 and a half rushing yards against the Chargers. It seems like I mean, Mostert has the higher number at this point. I don't think they've actually swung back to Mostert over Wilson. It might be a coin flip week to week on who gets more work, but Wilson's just been better yeah and why do you think that he didn't see much work was it like injury you think or what do you think the reason was he had cramped up a little bit and maybe they just thought that the power running

of raheem monster to getting to the edge and breaking was better suited to you know sort of the shiftiness that jeff wilson actually puts in or maybe it was a pass blocking thing where they knew that they were just getting pressured left and right. And I mean, I listen, I'm no, no draft game film beat Nick here, but I think the Raheem Mosser is PPPFF grade of run block or pass blocking much better than Jeff Wilson. So maybe having him on the field is just better for what was happening against San Francisco. Fun thing about the chargers. They don't have a run defense and they can't rush the passer so expect more jeff wilson yeah i was looking at this too for the same reasons because i feel like ideally they probably want these guys to be you know somewhere around 50 50 or in like a game dependent uh you know flow so if this matchup is better for jeff wilson you'll

see like a 60 40 jeff wilson and vice versa which is kind of what we saw last week with reem mostert seeing a little bit more time. So yeah, I think in this spot here where they probably will want to run the ball against the Chargers run defense, I think it's a fantastic spot. I think you could actually consider both of their overs. I think that like both of them could easily end up

with like 50, 60 rushing yards. But yeah, Jeff Wilson is probably a great look there. I was actually thinking the same thing about Pollard and Zeke. Yeah, yeah, that's actually, I want to go to that game as well thing about Pollard and Zeke. Yeah. Yeah. That's actually, I want to go to that game as well. So Pollard right now we're looking at numbers. It's 70 rushing yards, I believe if that's 60, it's in the sixties that I know 69 and a half. Okay. 69 and a half. Very nice. And then Zeke was right around there too. Now this week,

finally they, they, the difference that we talked about last week, it finally caught up. It looks like. Yeah. 67 and a half for Zeke. So you think over for both or, I mean, there's sometimes they offer combo props on DK where it can be like total rushing yards or combined rushing yards between two players.

I mean, that could be a worth a look because I mean, one, or if not both of them could easily have a hundred yards in this spot. I think they both might get 20 carries in this game. So I was actually waiting for a Dak Prescott attempt under because along those same reasons, because do they have to throw the ball?

Like maybe the entire fourth quarter, like is even going to play the fourth quarter? I mean, what if we get it? Do you think we'd even see like a 30, maybe like 28 and a half, 29 and a half? Probably still an under look, right? I would think so, unless they try to do all their damage through the air in the first half. Like it's very reminiscent of that dolphins game a few weeks ago. Yeah. That's, that's the issue is that sometimes they can bust, uh, you know, bust you like that. If they decide like game plan specific, they want to come out,

throw the ball 25 times at the first half. And then all it takes is, you know, five, six pass attempts, uh, there as well. Anything else that you were looking at here? I know we've been flying through these props here without Ryan, but I think the people are enjoying, you know, some hard hitting info here. I wish there was more Seattle Carolina props out there. Cause I think that game is an over that I, you know, I like DJ more over. I like Dante Foreman over in that game. Obviously we don't know. Do we get any news on DJ Dallas yet? Has that come out? I have not seen any on that.

Yeah, that's unfortunate. Because I think that Travis Homer is going to end up starting in that game, which I would like overs on him as well, especially through the receiving game. Yeah, that would be a great look as well. I mean, I feel like Seattle is just such an efficient offense here. And like Carolina's defense has been below average. I kind of lean towards Seattle in that game, but I could see you think Carolina pushes back. I mean, Seattle's defense has not been playing well lately.

So you're interested in Foreman because Foreman is like the most game script dependent back in the league right now. If they're a neutral game script or winning, he can crush if they if they're losing. He's just kind of screwed. So you expecting like high scoring kind of neutral game script here? I am. And I think that Foreman can get to like 15 plus carries, which means I think he'll hit his over yardage prop. And this is about the worst defense in the league.

So I mean, they're not the Texans, but it's pretty close. And Sam Darnold only has eyes for DJ Moore. So DJ Moore overs. I love obviously, but I think they can score enough points to keep this close. Like I think there's a very competitive game. I like Carolina against the spread here,

but I think it could be like 30, 27, something crazy like that. Yeah, no, I love that. Another game that I'm looking at the over potentially is like the Vikings Lions game. I know it's talking about a lot, but I mean, two defenses that are not very good against two

offenses. The lions are coming roaring back, you know, restoring the roar. The Vikings have been playing well consistently now, even against better defenses. Uh, I mean the props here are kind of, they're in accordance with that though. Justin Jefferson, even after putting up a goose egg, well, not a full goose egg, but not playing well last time against the, the, uh, lions, his props 93 and a half receiving yards or 92 and a half on draft kings like i mean i want to take the over but like last time kind of scares me because i feel like this could be just a nuclear game for both offenses it's fine because everyone is just talking about how this could be a crazy offense explosion wouldn't be

super stunned if this was like 19 to 13 19 to 17 17, something like that, just because that's what happens in the NFL. I, this game is such a stay away for me. I don't know what's going to happen. I like that. That's a pretty contrarian take. It seems like then compared to the rest of the industry, because I feel like on paper, it makes sense to go over, but to your point, like this is the second divisional matchup. You see wonky stuff here. What if, you know, the Vikings want to go run heavy and the lions decide to do that as well they don't finish in the red zone and like you said it ends up you know a lot lower than that i mean there could be some value in the unders then but uh i'm not sure that

i want to play those games you know i feel like you can get caught real quick well it's funny and i mean if you want to bet overs on almost everyone in this game you you're going to get plus money solely because everything is so juiced to the unders because everything was set so high in this game. Like just to look at receiving yards for this game, for example, see Adam Thielen. So no, okay.

Maybe I was wrong about that. It's all even now. They seem to have readjusted themselves, but there was a point where like Amon Ra was 79 and a half. Now he's up to 83, but it was like plus money. When you look at receptions in particular, I think that's where the most juice is coming in. Yeah. So Adam Thielen plus 125 for his over of four and a half, even money on Amon Raw, seven and a half plus 115 for DeAndre Swift, three and a half Delvin Cook plus 100 for two and a half KJ Osborne plus

one 55 for two and a half. Like unless it's Justin Jefferson or TJ Hawkinson, those are like the only two quote unquote, sure things from this game that people really believe in that there's good money to be made. If you can figure out who the other options are going to be in this game, if it does go smash because everyone's getting juiced to the over here. It's weird. Yeah, no, that's a great point. You know, I think that if you can figure out the unders, that's great. But otherwise, like you said, if you think this game is going over, you could definitely

make some really nice same game parlays because I mean, these numbers are well adjusted over to their normal price prices. I mean, we just literally saw Adam Thielen put up like 30 yards last week. Now his prop is right back to 50, right back towards median. I know that one of our listeners here, Javon, talked about this in our Discord. Likes TJ Hawkinson over four and a half receptions at minus 120. I mean, I think that that over in another game is pretty interesting here. For the return game here against the Vikings, TJ Hawkins at 48 and a half receiving yards,

four and a half receptions, minus 120 and over. I was looking at this. I just wasn't ready to go all in on that, but it looks like I'm up to minus 130 here on DraftKings. Are you interested in Hawkinson at all? Not really. I spoke about this on my show with Tambo today, the DraftKings pick show,

just in terms of like points per dollar of what he's actually going to produce. I think that it's more likely over than under most definitely. However, like his price point on DraftKings is 5,000 this week. Like just go look at what he's done since he's become a Viking. Like there hasn't been, I think we all have that like 42 point huge game that he had earlier in the year against Seattle in our heads. He's just been, maybe it's a product of this offense.

They don't really air it out all that much. And they're not Kirk is not leading him into space where he can make a guy miss and take off down the field. Like it's a lot of these seven for fifty five type games. So I'm more enamored with the overrun receptions than yardage. But I don't know, maybe everyone's talking about, oh, it's the revenge game. He's going to light up Detroit. Maybe Detroit knows how to stop him. Yeah, no, it's very possible.

And yeah, like to your point, they're kind of just like letting him sit in between zones and like, you know, putting him in the flat or like maybe a screen here and there, but really just like not a ton into space. So that is, yeah, that's a great look for sure. We got another one here. Quez Watkins over 26 and a half over this number in four straight.

To me, that's just too boom or bust. Any thoughts for you in this spot? Is he playing for sure with his shoulder? That's a good question. We can check that real quick here. Quiz is, was limited on Thursday. I haven't seen his Friday report yet.

I just know that he was banged up last week. He ended up leaving the game, but it looks like he's trending towards playing. I have no interest one way or another, honestly, with Quez Watkins. It's a lot like that Slayton prop, but I know Slayton's getting his shots every week. Right. I mean, Slayton's like, I would say the focal point, like literally the only point of that offense at this point.

And so whereas Quez Watkins is like, I don't know, third-ish kind of at this point, you know, behind A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. I also have questions whether or not we see the pendulum swing back in that Eagles game to them running the ball more, uh, versus last week, we were able to predictably say they're going to pass the ball more against Titans who are really strong run defense. The giants are one of the worst teams on early downs at defending anything, the pass or the run. And the Eagles are one of the best teams on early

downs at running the ball uh so I think that's something to look forward to I was considering Miles Sanders overs for that reason but uh like you said I know they give the ball to other people and it's not like it's the best matchup in the world so it's not something that I'm going to go chasing there uh for Sanders it's a really good matchup you can run all over the Giants if you want to as I told you last week I'm just I'm out on any Miles Sanders props ever because we could get the game we saw. They scored a bunch of points. The offense was rolling.

He did absolutely nothing last week. And maybe this is the week he goes for 120. Maybe it's the week he goes for 20. It's just all within his pretty normal range of outcomes for him, even if he gets the bigger workload or smaller workload. I am seeing that Quez Watkins was practicing again today, albeit on a limited basis. So he should be in basically since Dallas Goddard went out, he has been good. And like, I would be more on the side of over than under for sure, but just not where I

want to attack. Yeah, no, totally understand. It's something that I considered, but, you know, quickly went over there. Matt Tate, like the unders last week, also cash on the tackle props. Noonan's getting a shout out and he's not even on the show. I absolutely love that. But since you guys are here, since you guys want tackle props, uh, you know, I can give you one of Noonan's from the discord. I don't think he'll mind because it's moved a little bit, but I think he'll still play it. So he's going back to the

well here with Nick Bolton, uh, over eight and a half, uh, tackles and assists. This was over a DK. I believe it's nine and a half now, but I think you're getting plus money. So I think he still leans over. We have around 10 projected. It's coming off a 16 tackle performance last week as 16, 11 and 14 tackles in the past three, uh, stopped that number in 10 or 12 games a season. And the Broncos actually play with a fairly decent pace, play quicker, quicker when trailing, which seems obvious in the situation against Kansas city. Second in pace when trailing by six or more. Also the Denver scorekeeper is generous. They have the highest tackle rate, uh, of, of tackles issued per opportunity in the league. I think Nina might just be making some of this up, but you know, I know, I think, I think this

is actually real. Um, so he is, I think we have, he is Bolton project for 9.7. I think it's still lean over at eight, nine and a half at plus money, but we got an eight and a half in our discord. So shout out to new, new, new sick right now for still coming through with, with the tackle prop here today. I don't even see it on the board anymore. Is it off? Wow. At draft Kings. Yeah, man. Oh, that's tough. Okay. Well, if he drops any more tackle props during the show i can you know fill in there but i doubt he's gonna be doing anything i think he's got you know head over a toilet so brutal um he did ask another question what do you think of justin herbert past leader

this weekend versus the dolphins hmm that's interesting where where i i never even look at these i don't either anymore because the after our conversation and then seeing how bad this market is oh he's the chalk he's plus 700 though i mean it's it's not that bad but i mean it's he's literally the highest the highest one on drafting he's really at herbert plus 700. would you say he has an over under 14 chance of leading the slate in your estimation i mean probably higher just given i don't really see many other games if we don't think the lions game shoots out well i mean but projections would say that it is going to shoot out right yeah that's just me being an idiot yeah i mean i would say like 15 like i think that's right 15 to 20 i don't know what do you think no it's nowhere you don't think

oh i mean i'm like what do you what do you think uh i mean like what would you put it at like five percent yeah probably somewhere like if you get 20 to 1 even 15 to 1 on them i think that's just far more viable like i'm looking like i have him as the highest passing total of the week by my projections by about 10 yards over brady uh burrow lawrence mahomes we haven't talkedousins or Goff in that game. Geno is well within the mix here. And then you always have your stupid outlier of, if Mike White throws it 59 times,

he could throw for 400 yards and a loss, and they might only have 17 points. So there's a lot going on here. Like, that's just, those odds aren't good enough for me. And what about Tua on the other side? Yeah, that's the issue. Tua is also plus 750 there. Yeah, I understand what you're saying,

but I feel like your and Nunez's minds are just warped by actual rational markets like in golf. Those aren't rational either, but at least you're getting bigger odds on these things. Yeah, like this is the completely most irrational market ever. And like, I mean, it's just not priced well at all. Like, I mean, the hold on it is insane. I tweeted something out like last week, it was like the first 10 players in the most rushing yards market added up to over a hundred percent. And there was, I think 75 players listed. So, I mean, the hold on the

market is just absolutely astronomical. I mean, if you want to bet the market, you're probably just betting it for fun. So sure, Herbert, But I think Pat made a bunch of great points here on other guys as well. So the top eight guys in the market right now in terms of passing yards for the entire week that's remaining add up to 92%. Oh, boy. OK, well, yeah. And then what do we like? Your best bet on the board i think is brady at

15 to 1 like that's the only one from my projections that actually aligns with some form of value him or dac at 22 to 1 and you just say this is a dac showcase he's going to go and light up houston they don't care about running they're just going to make them look silly give dac a confidence boost and that's a purely narrative driven type thing. But at least like, does Dak have a 4% chance of leading this slate? Yeah, I think that he does. Does Tom Brady have, what would his implied odds be here? Does he have a 6% chance of leading this slate? Yeah, I think that he does. He's second in my projections. So those two would be the ones that I would be looking at rather than Herbert at seven

to one. Yep. That's, that's a good point there. Um, yeah, no, I think that that's a great look on the market just in general here. And a word of advice, like if you are going to bet it, probably look down the board a little bit like Pat mentioned, look at the Brady 15 to one Prescott 22 to one. Uh, I probably can't get any lower than that. Like no way we're touching Tannehill at 25 to one or hurts at 30 to one. I mean, would be interesting in a better like a spot where I think you'll pass

more, but I think the Eagles roll here. So I don't really anticipate them just going crazy pass every year. Yeah. Who else would be up on this list? Mike, Trevor Lawrence rates out pretty well for me. He's 19 to to 1 i have him fourth in passing yards um yeah mike white i have projected for 252 but that's right by kyler murray kyler murray 253 what are his odds kyler murray is boy i don't even see we don't we don't have it's just for sunday yep oh there you go that'll do i mean we have mike white projected for a lot more because our uh our projections use like adjusted fantasy points allowed as part of like the i don't know total projection so we haven't projected like 280 passing yards on 36 attempts which seems really rich given that buffalo's evens is definitely better than that but yeah

we've been projected for the second most of the slate uh so uh i don't know if i'm on board with that but you know i think that's it's an interesting interesting way to look at it for sure um all right let's see what else we got here now i want to see this most rushing year oh my god the most rushing yards markets like almost worse is it abomination let's see we got 12 12 11 10 10 9 10, 9, 9. So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 80% in the top seven guys, six guys, seven guys. 80% in the top seven guys. Yeah. And like once you get down like to the top 10 guys, we're almost at like 150%.

And there's still way more on that list. Yeah, it's tough. We used to do, we had a guy for us named Dalton Cates who crushed a bunch of these. I hit some insane ones last year. Rashad Penny, 80 to 1 to have most rushing yards of the week. Elijah Mitchell was 37 to 1 the week after. He had 100 rushing yards. So there was value at this point.

At one point in this market, it just like uh they got hit so hard that they decided to just suck all the juice out of it and make sure that even if you do win uh you are not really winning that much and you're probably going to lose money long term in this market actually almost certainly going to lose money long term by my numbers mile sanders at 14 to 1 donta Foreman at 30 to one. And where is that other idiot? Travis? I mean, Travis Homer is only 40 to one. That's not high enough.

I thought he'd be like 80 or 100 to one. But I do think that he ends up starting for Seattle, that if you could catch a number on him, it would be fine. They're just not pricing anyone that like to allow for that to happen. Yeah, no, that's, that makes sense. You're all just throw up the odds on the, on the screen here real quick. Like Jeff Wilson's 30 to one.

Maybe. Yeah. Yeah. It's a, I mean, it's a pretty tough market. Yeah. Jeff Wilson,

30 to one Deonta Foreman, 30 to one. You talked about him earlier. Rashad way. It looks like, I mean, Leonard for that may not play, but I mean,

this matchup is so bad. He has no shot. And you don't know if Fournette is playing or not. If they announced that Fournette may not play, but I mean, this matchup is so bad. He has no shot. And you don't know if Fournette is playing or not. If they announce that Fournette is out, White's going to go to like 15 to 1. Right. Oh, man. Yeah, this market sucks. Wow, this is brutal.

Okay, well, we can move on. I feel bad. We took up too much time with that market just saying how bad it is. But I think there are, like, again, if you want to have fun, want to sweat on something longer than like an even one, I just want 15 prop. Maybe you can spend your money better, but I think it's, it's a little bit of fun there.

Here's a fun one. Most points this week. Okay. Let's see what we got. Team points. The Seahawks are 15 to one. I like that, but the Panthers 45 to one.

I just think if you're playing, you have a chance to be the highest scoring team. Because they score enough to keep you scoring. They're not like Houston where it's like, all right, whatever. Right. Yeah. They just roll over and then you can just kind of walk, walk the game to the end there when you have like 30 points. Yeah.

The Panthers. I mean, if they win, that's I feel like that's where I found value in some of these is finding like teams to upset the other ones in like a higher scoring game. So like the Seahawks price 15 to one Panthers, 45 to one, but the Seahawks are whatever, only three point favorites. So you're telling me there's a 30,

whatever, plus, you know, 30 to one difference on three points, basically it in a game that you expect to be high scoring, but that probably doesn't make sense. So, you know,

I think that that's probably a good look there for sure. On the Panthers. Anyone else on the, on the board there that stands out to you is like most score high scoring team. Not really tell you the truth. Looking at it right now, like highest scoring game.

That one is 10 to one. Panthers. Okay. I mean, and then the other ones plus not like snowing and minus 50 degrees in seattle i can't imagine that's the case yeah plus 360 on vikings lions plus three on and on dolphins chargers so the chalk here is very very heavily weighted on that so i would also contend like yeah you have it's really high on the chalk. So Panther Seahawks, I think, is a good look at 10 to one.

Bill's Jets is 11 to one. I don't hate that one either. But the one that kind of sticks out to me is Houston and the Cowboys. And like the logic behind this one would be Dallas does all of its scoring. And then Houston just scores like 21 stupid points when it doesn't matter. And it's like 42 to 21. Yeah. And there's also the thing too,

is that when Houston or when Dallas puts their backups in, they can still probably score. I mean, we saw it last week, you know, with what was his name? Malik, I believe ran for another like 30 yard touchdown at the end of the game too. Like there, you can all get in on the action here with how potent this, this Dallas offenses and how poor the Texans defenses. So yeah, that's, that's another interesting look as well at plus eight 50. They don't have a most receiving yards market. It looks like, huh?

Just rushing passing lame. Well, that's all right. Probably shouldn't be putting too much money on it. Anyways, we got a couple more questions here. Jack stole over nine and a half receiving yards. Meh.

Any thoughts? Yeah, not really. Yep. Javon. I love telling tackle yards. Meh. Any thoughts? Yeah, not really. Yeah. Javon. I love telling tackle props. Good. We do too.

Any, I can't stop my weekly urge to play Dulcich over. That's like 40 and a half. We both like the hidden under Noonan likes the Dulcich over. He told me that I didn't play it officially, but did does like that. I feel like that kind of coincides. I just would rather take the under on hidden than no run Dulcichet's because he's been i mean they said talk about using as a

wide receiver and i think it lines up for more usage but i also thought that three weeks ago and then he's done nothing since until last week i would say over but i'm not betting it either way yeah right and he says the same thing next comment then again broncos offense lol yeah that that's the scary part about the entire thing. Like I have Dulcich at 45 yards. Like Fryermuth is the one I'm like I want to see because I haven't projected at 51, like five for 51. I think over receptions over yardage because I'm guessing he comes in like 45 and a half.

Maybe four receptions. Yeah, no, that's that's that's probably a good look there um iuk under three and a half receptions plus 100 i actually know some short people who are interested in the over there because there was like some thing after you know the game last week or i guess during the week saying that brock purdy you know was talking about you saying like you know i need to get you the ball more like i'm gonna you know i'm gonna feed you whatever so if you want to go by the narrative I think that's okay I do have some concerns about the matchup and you know who does Brock Purdy throw to is Brock Purdy any good who does Kyle Shanahan scheme open like those are all questions I have no

idea about so maybe the under is the right lean here but I know some people were interested in the over any any thoughts on Iuke or just like i guess that passing game in general i don't really know much at all about brock birdie i listen i'm just staying away the overs in receiving makes sense to me because short throws that makes sense so the receptions would pile up and it's still very difficult to run on tampa bay yep no 100 there i think that those are all the questions we have here. So awesome. Pat, anything else you're looking at before we hop off here? I'm looking at you people, good people out there. We're giving away $2,000 on Mayo Media Network right now.

So head on over to Mayo Media Network on YouTube and check out the week 14 DraftKings show with myself and Tambo. And you can find out how to get into that draw. You can do it too, Connor. You can get, you know, maybe you'll win two grand. Awesome. Well, I'm going to head over and do that now because I do like money. So if you hate money, don't do that. But, you know, I assume you're here for a reason.

So Pat, appreciate you hopping on. I feel like this went really well with just us two. So awesome job. Hopefully we'll get Noonan back next week. And yeah, so for Pat, I'm Connor. Wraps up week 14. See you guys next week.