Move The Line - Week 15 NFL Prop Bets

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

Week 15 NFL Prop Bets from Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Week 15 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro3:42 Connor Prop Bet #1 4:50 Pat Prop Bet #1  7:19 Ryan Prop Bet #1 9:50 Connor Prop Bet #2 11:43 Pat Prop Bet #2 14:12 Ryan Prop Bet #220:18 Connor Prop Bet #3 23:10 Pat Prop Bet #326:12 Ryan Prop Bet #329:28 Connor Prop Bet #433:47 Pat Prop Bet #435:36 Ryan Prop Bet #441:18 Late-dropping props48:54 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello, welcome to Move Align, the Prop Drop Show. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through Player Props Live. Ryan Noonan back to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that is through player props live here with my friends, 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday, giving you our favorite plays and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us live here on YouTube, subscribe first. It was a show smash that like button. It goes a long way to helping us out and then jump in the chat.

Let us know what your favorite week 15 look is. We'll get to as many questions as we can at the end of the show uh joining me here as always did a great job filling in last week again i've not been able to get the show off the ground for the past few weeks uh one because the internet and two because uh i was sick last week but uh connor allen great job filling in how we doing yeah doing well it was my hosting debut felt glorious you know it was great to just take the reins just right from you and, you know, fill in, but I'm happy to have you back. It's a lot of pressure, you know, like there's so many things that need to go, right. There's no,

you know, even just doing a show with two people, it's like, there's no silence, you know, it's just always going. Thankfully Mayo's a real professional and was able to keep us, keep us afloat there. Pat, many, many days, gosh, the hours I can't even imagine accumulated hosting shows over the years, but obviously the man from the Mayo Media Network, Pat Mayo Experience. Pat Mayo, how we doing, bud? This is nice for me.

I can just show up. I can talk when spoken to. Don't need to carry the show. It's my favorite hour of the week. Painful for me. It's my favorite thing of the week to do. Painful for me. That's my favorite thing of the week to do. I love doing the prop show with you two guys. My son also had a basketball game on Friday. Literally my second, probably my first thing to do. I love watching my son hoop. Uh, and

I had to lay on the couch all day and miss, uh, both of those events. And, uh, you guys crushed the prop show without me, uh, without my presence. Uh, my son dropped four threes in the first half. I should just not go to any games. So I'm just going to retire from doing all these things and lay on the couch. I think my wife would absolutely love that. So I'm excited to unpack these with you guys. Kind of light for me. I have a bunch of likes, things that I'm waiting for. Maybe toss it to you guys, get your thoughts that we can kind of unpack things here. Reminder to everyone, two episodes of Move Align each week, both available on YouTube page and in podcast form wherever you consume podcasts.

This is the Prop Drop Show. We have a game preview show with Connor, John Daigle, and myself, live 730 Eastern on Wednesday nights. We'll continue to go all the way through just like here, through the Super Bowl. Fantasy season stopped. Betting does not, so we continue to roll. Also have a new

youtube channel as well four for four bets um original content there every day so subscribe to that one as well continue to roll out new stuff over there i also want to let you know there are massive discounts for four for four subscriptions four for four dot com slash plans already discounted on the site you can use promo code next NEXTLEVEL to get you an additional 25% off. That betting subscription will take you through the end of the football season, through the end of February, which is going to get you a lot of stuff on the NBA side,

college basketball, MMA. If you are involved in any of the Pick'Em sites, PrizePicks, Underdog, Vivid, we have unique channels giving out picks there as well. That'll get you all of our DFS content through the end of the season as well. So again, promo code NEXTLEVEL at four for four.com slash plants. All right. Live lines for week 15, doing our best to make sure you guys can tail these as you watch again, if you're listening

to podcast form, it's great. We love having you there. Jump in on YouTube as much as you can. You're able to get some of these things because we have an active audience that gets in when we do. So Connor, let's get started. First play for week 15. Yeah, my first one is going to be Austin Eckler under 40 and a half rushing yards. We wrote Eckler's under last week cash in a similar spot against the pass funnel Dolphins defense. But there's a few key differences. Now we're getting the Titans who are a lot better to run defense first and run D DVO way. And as bad, if not worse in past defense and almost every team playing against them is skewing massively pass heavy. Um, and rightfully so. And I think the charters probably do the same here. Uh, last

week also, we saw Austin Eckler see 15 carries, which was like the third highest rate of the season. Um, I expect the Titans to be able to control the clock here a good bit, uh, with Derek Henry on the ground against the charters, bottom five run defense. And so while I expect this game could go back and forth, I don't really think that's going to be able to control the clock here a good bit with Derek Henry on the ground against the Chargers bottom five run defense. And so while I expect this game could go back and forth, I don't really think that's going to be on the ground here. So then there's some potential volume concerns and massive efficiency concerns for Ackler here on the ground. So I like his under at 40 and a half. Yeah, that's a good look. It's very logical.

I like it. Makes sense. They're chucking it a ton, too. I mean, like as you highlighted there i mean it's not been great for eckler i think that the titans run d is a little bit more susceptible due to some of the injuries but i still think like even without that i think it's a a fine fine play and you got lots of room to wiggle i mean eckler's been a stud but a lot of that's still been derived from the passing game so yeah good luck there uh pat kick it even number one all right number one for me uh this number has grown throughout the week although i

still don't care i think it's way too low same game tennessee titans uh instead of an under it's an over but it's mike williams over 65 and a half receiving errors what would lead you to believe that the titans can stop mike williams at this point what would lead you to believe they can stop any receiver at this point they are horrend lead you to believe they can stop any receiver at this point? They are horrendous against the pass ever since the injuries started to pile up. And Mike Williams weirdly makes this entire offense go. You wouldn't think about it that way, but just the way that it's not even that he stretches the field all that much that they're actually confident throwing him jump balls down the

sidelines. And as we saw A.J. Brown do the Titans, you just chuck one up and you're going to come down jump balls down the sidelines. And as we saw AJ Brown do the Titans, you just chuck one up and you're going to come down with it because the Titans are. And the way that he's used to right deep down the field, big splash plays. Yeah. I mean, what massive a dot like 15 and a half. Connor, I actually think that correlates pretty well with,

with your Eckler stuff too, to be honest. I mean, I just think they, they pass. I mean, last week too, in a game where they led throughout, they had a 14% positive pass rate over expectation, 12% on first downs. Like they just, they throw the football. It's what they're really good at. Yeah.

I mean, I would love a pass attempt over as well for this game, you know, with Justin Herbert. His over under on his yards right now is over 300 already. So I did not touch that, but I think that that's honestly probably fine look on the over, but I think if you're going to play it, the Mike Williams over makes a ton of sense. And it's interesting because I don't think Keenan's necessarily like cooked, but he's

definitely not the same player that he was before. And so Mike Williams impact was like, I think much more significant, like his return than Keenan's because I don't know, we've at least when I've watched him, it seems like he's getting bottled up a little bit more than he used to, uh, you know, in man coverage there. Yeah. him it seems like he's getting bottled up a little bit more than he used to uh you know in man coverage there yeah espn started doing that uh separation score stuff this year with their analytics um really none of the chargers receivers are uh profiling well there and their ability to create separation so again we don't have like a ton of historical data on keenan but i do think

that the numbers kind of match the eye test where you think early in his career was something he really thrived at to be able to you know create that separation so um yeah he's uh he slowly does a good job setting up his routes uh but again he's just he's not uh he's relying on the accuracy of Herbert which just means kind of carrying those uh first for me I'm gonna go with um Josh Allen over 47 and a half actually looks like it's you can can get a 46.5 on DraftKings now. FanDuel out to 48.5. It's kind of all over the board, but 46.5 on DraftKings is fine. We're in this spot now where, I mean, not that every game doesn't matter.

In the NFL, small sample size, they all matter. We know that quarterbacks run more in bigger games late in the season than the playoffs. In a lot of ways, this is a playoff game. The Bills need to hold on. They have the top seed in the A and the playoffs in a lot of ways this is a playoff game right the bills need to hold on and uh they have the top scene the afc this is a big game for the division this is actually lower than allen's season mark of 48.3 and then the opponent here miami really checks all the boxes that we've been looking for when we were attacking rushing quarterback uh yardage all season long top 10 in man coverage, top 10 in blitz rates.

And we've seen them get gashed on the ground this season. Justin Fields' game where he torched them. Miami has allowed the second most quarterback rushing yards this season and have faced the fourth most attempts, which just kind of proves that their scheme invites tuck and run scenarios. And then we have the weather scenario too, where whatever you think that that's going to matter or not like we're going to have lake effect snow we're going to have some wind gusts uh and again it's this is not really driven because of the weather i think

it does support that where you maybe see a little bit lower of a pass rate uh from the bills here and again just a great matchup for josh allen to tuck and run here so allen over 46 and a half available uh across the board and on DraftKings right now, minus 150. Yeah, I think that's a, it's an interesting one and something that would normally definitely be on with you. One thing that I've noticed is since the UCL injury, they haven't been using him on as many designed runs.

So that kind of like, I don't know, just limits like the natural way to get there, I guess. But, you know, as you mentioned, given the matchup with the man coverage and everything and the atmosphere and like how important it is for him just to have all of his weapons available essentially with his legs and arm uh he should still probably get there but that's the only thing kind of holding me back from uh you know pounding the over along with you yeah that's a fair point i mean 10 attempts 47 yards so right on this number last week against a tough jets defense who plays a ton of zone so it's like the opposite of the the scheme thing that we like to attack here so uh penn and he

leans on uh on josh allen i kind of veer on the side with connor here like i like it but i don't think it's one that i'm going to play i don't like it that much yeah that makes sense that's a saturday one for you another side of him next but connor kick it back to you for number two reminder if you're hanging in the chat jump in let us know what you're looking at for week 15 yeah something this is a little bit off brand for me but i like gus edwards over 37 and a half rushing yards i think there's multiple ways for us to win this so first off tyler huntley is cleared i think they're going to be implementing another massively run heavy approach uh gus edwards had 13 carries last week to jk dobb Dobbins, 15. But I thought it was pretty important.

He and J.K. Dobbins, I think regardless, are going to split touches in some kind of 1A, 1B situation here. They get the Browns, allowing 5.2 yards per carry, 30th in run defense. But I think that there was something noticeable with Dobbins, obviously gate in limping on that long run there. I don't know how much that matters at all. It might not matter at all, but if it does, it's a short week here. So like, you know, the potential where I think Gus Edwards could take over as like the, the one a in this situation.

So really in this number, like you're, you probably need 10 carries to feel fantastic about it. And even eight carries, you can probably still get there. So I think in this spot, like, I think like both of these guys could probably end up in that like 10 to 12 range if not more if the game script goes like perfect so i like the over here at 37 and a half i'd probably play it up to like 40 great matchup that cleveland rush d is uh terrible uh yeah and i mean that the dobbins limping thing was uh was tough i mean he should have been that should have been a score for sure had any leans on that not especially to tell you the truth i'm kind of locked into the ones that i like i'm although this this case that connor has made about eckler has been by far the best one i think so far i do like this though um i have another prop from this game so

that's kind of swaying me here okay are you concerned about uh like the running back distribution or you just uh no i mean listen maybe overexposed to one going to be a, I think it's going to be an offensively challenged game. Yeah. So you don't want to overexpose yourself to yeah. Shitty football game. Yeah. I don't need to take two overs from a game where I think there's going to be no points and I bet the Ravens too. So what's number two. Number two for me is my favorite of the week. Please don't get hurt.

I've been just, I had the Daniel Jones over pass attempts last week. He got pulled out of the game with 10 minutes to go when he needed one more passing attempt. It was like, Oh my God. Like there's nothing worse. Like, listen,

sometimes guys get hurt. You're under hits. That's great. You win that way. Sometimes you're under doesn't hear you're over. Doesn't it? Cause the guy gets hurt, but when a guy gets pulled from the game,

because everything happened, like you thought it was going to happen. it is just infuriating to look at so hopefully this one works out i like this one up to by my projections up to 89 and a half it's currently 70 and a half justin fields over rushing yards against the eagles connor any thoughts there wow yeah no i i kind of like it because i don't really think they're gonna have any success throwing the ball like at all i mean who's he gonna throw to you like chase claypool admittedly doesn't know the playbook darnell mooney's out so what like it's cool to me is saint brown against like the best second one of the best secondaries in the league i mean that's

he has to run if they're gonna have any kind of shot which you know to be fair i don't really think they do but that's okay like you know he's they're still gonna run regardless so yeah i think that this is a great look as long as he's healthy coming out of the buy. I mean, he should easily hit a hundred plus yards here. We saw fewer design rushes coming off of the injury last week, big splash plays though, still. Right. So that kind of supports where it doesn't take a ton of carries here for him to get it. So I I'm with you. Like I, I, man, mean there's i'm so torn on that game like there's nothing statistically that makes you think that even minus nine is enough points for the eagles right they should absolutely i think i think this correlates a lot with the plus nine that the eagles are just

going to score at will like the the chicago defense isn't going to stop anyone but i don't think that they're going to be able to stop Fields 90 percent of let's say 50 of the time they stop them 50 of the time the Bears could cover this game because it might just be Justin Fields three rushing touchdowns from 30 yards out one of those things where they back door cover at the Connors Point like literally it's it's Cole commit and then just a bunch of a bunch of Bros who you would not have any faith in uh in either. So, yeah, it'd be interesting to see if it's sticky, if it was a matchup thing, or if they had concerns last week with keeping him healthy.

But, yeah, I mean, I get it. It's definitely over nothing for me on fields rushing from here on out at this point because of the big playability. So I don't hate that one whatsoever. All right. Next for me, we have an official tackle play. I got this at plus money. I still like it.

It's available on MGM still at minus 110. This is Roquan Smith over seven and a half tackles and assists. I had six official plays last week. Excuse me. Roquan was the only miss. Steelers ran just 51 plays in that game against the Ravens. Trubisky kept throwing interceptions, and that really killed the play. But I'm going back to the well.

Great spot against the Browns here. So for my projections, I backed out all of Smith's Chicago data. So his tackles and snap projection is based solely off of what he's done so far in Baltimore. So I just wanted to make sure that I'm not getting anything noisy from previous team and scheme. Now, how could a four game sample be noisy? Huh? No, still could be noisy, but still, you know, it's, it's, it's a little bit better.

So it's not like elite elite tackle rate, but the guy's still really good. Um, Brown's fourth in the league in place per game, which is great. Like 67.2. They ran 70 last week against the Bengals, even though they're running a ton. guy's still really good. Browns fourth in the league in plays per game, which is great, like 67.2. They ran 70 last week against the Bengals, even though they're running a ton, negative 9% pass rate over expectations. So they're running a ton, but still running a ton of plays. I have Cleveland conservatively projected this week, and we still have Smith at closer to like eight and a half. And linebackers against the Browns is a massive edge. They're averaging a league high 23 and a half tackles per game is tied for the most in the league with the Niners and the Browns scorekeeper. Very, very, very generous, particularly to road teams when it

comes to granting assists. Talked about this a few times. Assists are subjective. We've seen massive splits between home and road, between different clubs, depending on the venue. And the Browns scorekeeper is generous. They are granting basically four more assists than league average. So lots of things in play here. Again, at minus 110, we got a plus money a couple days ago. So really like Roquan here to bounce back in cash for us.

Over seven and a half tackles. I can get behind that. I do like too, that we, you talked with Sam about getting the player props or the tackle props into our player prop tool. That's pretty cool. Just automatically Sims, you know, kind of the outcomes there based on what you've put up. So yeah, I like that. I mean, I don't really know much about the tackle props in general, but I'm, I told you, I was like, you said, Oh, unders are popping this week. I'm tempted to just blindly tell all of them uh you know i don't know anything uh you know in quite as in-depth as you do but i think it's a good look can i can i run something by you guys for sure i i want to make sure this isn't i don't think it is an explicitly canadian thing but you

guys had dances in high school right yeah so cuss cussed is arguing that there was no one on either well drunk out of their mind or on substances at high school dances what high school did he go to of course like that's like half the people at least i'd say at least half right yeah yeah like anyone who i mean party was partying you know like yeah i think we used to have them a lot like in comparison to now that i have a son that's you know getting to be that age like they don't have them that often i We used to have them a lot. In comparison to now that I have a son that's getting to be that age, they don't have them that often. We used to have them a lot. We had them a lot in junior high. Maybe because no one wants to chaperone a bunch of kids on Molly or maybe pounding shots in the corner, they've maybe slowed down at least here locally for where we're at.

But yeah, absolutely. I mean, I still have a bad habit of – so anytime I open a water bottle that's already been open i smell it because i used to keep my water bottles full of alcohol in my soccer bag and full of vodka yeah exactly and so sometimes i've accidentally taken swigs of that and so now it's just like a habit i smell my water every single time i drink it so this is cuss rationale he said he didn't see people doing jagger bombs or shotgunning beers at the dances and he didn't see anyone shooting up there either so that's why he thinks that no one was on drugs or alcohol that's fair i and to support his claim i never saw anyone shooting up either at any high school dance um or before or after any high school dances. But again, that just might've been my social social circle.

I don't want to speak for cost here, but yeah, he he's an interesting cat. That's for sure. He probably had a pretty rough high school. If that was his takeaway, he went to like the worst high school around like for drugs. Oh man. Just the mental picture ofuss at a high school dance is uh

really sticking to my brain too i can't even really imagine what that looks like yeah yeah if he didn't see it it never actually happened he was told that he has the awareness of someone in a coma which probably giving him too much credit to tell you the truth well you know again i thought maybe you know connor and i could have very differing uh you know vantage points here our uh high school years were roughly 20 years apart from each other so you know but yeah i mean high school dances are still happening people were definitely uh drinking and getting high back in the uh back in the mid 90s so glad to see it's continued midnight how old are you i thought you were my age 41 yeah i admit you weren't in high school in the mid 90s then yeah you were super smart

i graduated in 98 so yeah 95 was my freshman year wow that was your freshman year of high school that's wild interesting how old are you connor oh that's when i was i was born in 95 so i'm 27. that's hilarious yeah neither of us knew too when we met each other i thought noon was my age and i think he thought i was his age so it's hilarious yeah we have met people that definitely think connor's older so and you're in between right right pat i think you're like mid mid 30s, mid 30s. You nailed it. I can I can pleasantly claim mid 30s for another six months. Producer Sal sharing a an image of of Cust dancing for us in the private chat, which is

fantastic. So all right, MJ, thank you. Our old king um I appreciate that all right Connor back to you number three uh where we at here all right let's go with Rashad White I'm gonna take under it looks like someone's steaming the over right now it's up to 43 and a half um I don't really get it so Leonard Fournette was added to the injury report with a foot injury late last week um and so he only saw four carries most people didn't even expect him to play Rashad White. I guess I think predictably kind of dominated work at this point now is taken completely off the injury report. And I probably see it like 50, 50, maybe Rashad White gets a 60, 40, but I certainly don't see like a 13 to four carry, you know, out carrying him on last week. He had 56 rushing yards

against a good defense, but 28 of that came with the Bucs down 35-0, where obviously motivation is a little bit suspect. Now he matches up against the Bengals. With DJ Reader, we've talked about it pretty much every week. Bengals are one of the best run defenses in the league, notably just stopped Nick Chubb to 34 yards on 14 carries last week. I know they're a little bit more banged up on the defensive line this week, but still I think the DJ Re reader makes a massive difference here.

And like, I think Fournette and Rashad White split. I don't know. Am I off there? What do you guys have the split as? Like, or what do you guys think it will be? Because I feel like it's going to be 50-50. Yeah, I can see it being around 50-50. I haven't projected directly at 45 rushing yards on the dot.

So it's a big stay away from me either way. Yeah, I mean, it was interesting. It's one week one week right and then obviously he was dealing with an injury but we saw almost like clear roles last week where white was especially when the game was kind of undecided and not the late garbage time but uh yeah white handled more what nine to four carries um outside of uh when the game was in garbage time. And then you saw more routes run for Leonard Fournette. So route participation was higher, more targets. So, yeah, I mean, again, it could be one-week sample.

It could have been just noise. But I think the matchup is really good too, right? So I think that bakes in a few more routes where you could be maybe wrong on the split and still get there because of how the usage will be. But I mean, obviously, White has a little bit more explosiveness than what we've seen from Leonard Fournette of late. But kind of with Pat, I think your process is sound, but it won't be anything that I'm jumping on with you. Yeah, because I mean, I think realistically, even in a good split, you're probably penciling in Rashad White for, I don't know, around 10 carries, you know, something like that. And then 10 to 12, I mean, max, I don't really see them running the ball too much here, but maybe they do. But if they don't run the ball too much, it seems like they always try to. And then Brady just says, this isn't working. And then they just throw the ball 50 times. And so that's kind of what it's going to come down here to here as well. And right now, three and a half point underdogs right now against Cincinnati. I think Cincinnati has at least some success offensively. And so, yeah, we'll see.

I think the under still a good play, but I understand your guys point of view there for sure. Okay. Number three to you. Number three to me. I'm going to Carolina and Pittsburgh and a guy who let me down last week, although he would have hit this number on the over in a much easier matchup, mind you, although Pittsburgh's rush defense, not great, although it seems like it should be. Donta Foreman over 66.5 rushing yards.

I think you can take advantage of Pittsburgh on the ground like we saw Baltimore last week. And Chuba Hubbard got it going last week against a really bad defense, but Chuba Hubbard is not good. And if this is really going to be a 3.7.1 score game we're going to see donta foreman continue to get above 15 carries in all of these games and he didn't break a big one against a bad defense last week but he can do it uh he can grind his way to this number or he can get half of it in one shot so i actually really like donta

foreman here yeah connor any concerns with i mean truman hubbard not good can't disagree with that they got raheem blackshear involved last week too but again there were so many rushing attempts in that game they had the ball a ton and they ran a ton because seattle couldn't do anything to stop them um i do agree with pat obviously foreman has the ability to you know have more explosive plays and that helps the case here quite a bit what are your thoughts on this backfield in the form of play? Yeah, I think they ran the ball. It was like 40 times almost combined among all those guys.

Yeah. Which is outrageous. But I mean, Foreman's going to see the bulk of the carries no matter what. We probably won't get that outcome again, but you know, you really don't need that much to get over, you know, 70 rushing yards here. And it looks like there's some other spots as well. You know, a little bit lower on Foreman too. So you can probably find, you know, even better yards here. And it looks like there's some other spots as well. Uh, you know, a little bit lower on Foreman, uh, too. So you can probably find, uh, you know, even better number in that spot. So yeah, I think the over here is probably the right look.

Um, especially just in a game where I have no faith in the Steelers, like pulling away. I mean, the Foreman's biggest concern is like, you know, they fall behind, they don't use them as much. He doesn't get as much run. And I think it's partially a volume play, but, uh, it looks like Kenny Pickett is not going to play. He's doubtful right now so with mitch trubisky against panthers defense that's been playing significantly better as of late uh you know i think this is a good look here i think maybe an attempt number could be a great look too i don't know we haven't gotten those yet but something to watch out for too yeah that was the that was the one i was looking for i was hoping it would be like 14 and a half and i would smash the over i just don't see it yeah pretty big discrepancies the draft kings is maybe taking

pat's money and they've pushed this out to 70 and a half um if you have access to bet rivers um unibet sugar house uh that market um which is getting hit as i'm talking um uh you can get a 62 and a half on Foreman out there. So definitely a pretty big middle, pretty big discrepancy off of the 70 and a half over on DraftKings. So then again, like you said, it could be a Trubisky game, which looks like it's going to be a Trubisky game. Definitely don't have the concerns of game script getting out of here,

out of hand here for Foreman and being, you know, in a spot where he's on the pine because they're trying to play catch up. They are running a ton too since Steve Wilkes took over. So I like the Foreman look. All right, I got a bunch that I like and toss two out to you guys. I have not played. One that's available right now is not sexy. And Connor will definitely not like it.

Darius Slayton, over 45.5 receiving yards. He's got 58 or more in six of the past seven. The only time he fell short was last week against Philly, who shuts everyone down, and he had 42, and he didn't even play late because, again, as you guys both have mentioned, you both fell short because they benched starters in that game and unfortunately because they have no one left active they have to really protect darius slayton even richie james went down uh in that game and got a concussion so he's probably not playing it's really like isaiah hodges and darius slayton against a pass funnel

commander's defense they played a couple weeks ago slayton against a pass funnel commander's defense. They played a couple weeks ago. Slayton got eight targets, caught six of them for 90 yards. I just kind of like the spot for him, and he's just continuously hung in the mid-40s despite having topped this in six of seven. He's hung in the mid-40s? Good Lord, how does he play football?

Yeah, it's impressive. Very, very popular with the ladies post game i don't know if he would be at that point it's true maybe pre-game too uh but yeah he's he is hung uh mid 40s it's uh it's i think it's canadian right it's the metric system it's a little bit different than inches so 40 centimeters i 40 centimeters yeah you're looking like dirk digler here you're looking like 13 14 inches ish i mean still gets a job done i would think i would hope so if it doesn't you got real problems probably probably gets yeah more so so uh connor hung at 45 and a half uh no you don't like chasing uh overs on bad receivers but i think he made the case. The slate is decent.

Pretty good. Pretty good. Splits the season yards per outrun, especially against man has been pretty, pretty fantastic. I like it. I mean, I don't,

it's not something I'm running to bet, but I think that it's a solid look on the over. I can't, I can't tell you why it's not a good look. So, you know, there you go. I feel like that's,

that's probably a solid reason to like the over there. There's like nothing besides Daniel Jones being bad, but that doesn't matter. I mean, he's gone over in six or seven. So I know Pat was, was interested in last week, even just because for the same reason, because Slayton just seems to come up with one or two of those passes at every game, like long passes that it doesn't even matter. Uh, and he's seeing the volume. So yeah, it's a, it's a good look there for sure. I don't know too much about that game. I get a little scared of it just being horrible, but Slayton should still get there 45 is nothing for literally the only pass catcher with a pulse outside of like i guess isaiah hodgins uh pat you were there last week any interest going uh back to

darius slain or girth king i i like it yeah big girth bigger he'd be better on a CFL field. It's a bit wider. I don't call him Big Play Slayton for nothing. So he's definitely earning the moniker. All right. Well, good. I'll get to some others that I like in the next spot when I will share some more. So that'll probably not an official play yet for our subscribers at 444, but I'll probably, now that I have the stamp of approval of the gentleman here, we'll probably hit the slate and stuff.

So, all right, Connor the slate and stuff. So, all right, Connor, bring it home to you. Anything you like or a fourth official play, whatever you want to do. Yeah, I don't have a fourth official play,

but one that I'm waiting for that. I will almost certainly play. That's available on some of the pick them sites right now. Jared golf under it's in the two thirties in most spots. I think there's a fantastic look on the under here. I expect the, the jets to slow down Detroit a bunch. We kind of look at who they've played lately. Four of the last five games have come against bottom seven secondaries.

They played at home in the majority of those games. They played indoors for the majority of those games. Now they're going outside. It's going to be cold. They're playing against a significantly better defense in the Jets. And we've seen Jared Goff splits on and off and, uh, and home and road, which had been really rough and outside in the cold has played four games, 35 degrees or colder. And it seemed to matter for him. The, you know, uh, we talked about Darius Slayton being the

girth King, Jared golf, small hands, you know what that means? I mean, probably not packing too much down there as well. So, you know, I think that in this spot, like there's no way, like, I just don't have i have very very little faith in them having success i'll be taking all thunders on golf i think like under 200 passing yards will be an interesting look as well because um i i just really really struggled to see him having success after what we've seen from him in the cold it's been just brutal there's only one way i think he can get to the number i'm with you this is one of my favorite ones too now tim is telling me that how

did how would you even get booze if you were in high school he said my dad wouldn't have bought it for me gotta get creative older brothers or you know friends brothers i had a fake idea when i was 16. i was the guy that works too there you go like you want you want to talk about like people say that like draftkings has too much rake the pat mayo high school booze came with a lot of rake you barely look 21 now how in the world would a fake id work i mean you have to hello i think i don't want to get into the legality of it but it was a real id with my picture on it okay so and the drinking age in canada is you know 21. yeah so it's different anyway so oh yeah interesting when did they move from 18 to 19. uh well some provinces still some provinces are 18. quebec is 18 i believe alberta is 18. okay yeah i went to montreal uh at 18 for new year's uh one year and had a grand old time

uh yeah super sexy gold i believe was uh the uh establishment that we perused out it's great time so we're we're distracted our girth king um i don't know oh yeah small baby hands goff baby hands goff i'm sorry yeah the carny hands goff here the best way for him to get to this number is attack the jets defense where they are the softest unfortunately they might have the best player in the league for that. That'd be my only concern. And I'm not too concerned about it. But Amon Ra over the middle of the field

against the Jets is going to eat in this game. If he can throw it, if he can grip the ball. Yeah, I have Amon Ra on my list of wants because the perimeter corners for the Jets are fantastic. Really bad spot. I think you could just very easily throw Shark and Reynolds or whoever else is out there to run into those guys.

And it's Michael Carter in the slot. And that's where teams have really been able to beat the Jets. So yeah, I think Amon Ra is probably the only downside. And it actually fits what Goff is going to be able to do here because of the tiny hands, getting it out quick. But the Amon Ra ADOT is so low. I think he'd still be pretty safe there connor i would almost go with like receptions there rather than yards for for a guy like him

because like like i get that that's probably the right place to attack but like just let's we got to go back and watch that that rams bears game because like he couldn't do anything like it didn't matter about any of the matchups anything anything. And that was a fairly overrated Bears. He even said it played no one in 2018 when they hosted Derrick Goff. And it was like 15 degrees hands in his pockets. You know, like he could not do anything. It was like, throw the ball as quick as possible. Put your hands back in your pockets, sit on the bench, bundle up and basically go home.

That was like his MO. It's looked like he had never been in below 30-degree weather before. Maybe he's grown up a little bit, but I doubt it. Yeah, I mean, we've seen some great performances of late, but again, they've been very susceptible defenses in the cozy confines of Ford Field, and now stepping out into the cold weather in New York in December is not going to be a soft landing spot for Tiny Hands Goff.

Pat, you want to let us know what other spots you got here, number four or whatever you want to finish up with? So the problem is I haven't seen any of these reception or yardage props on the Detroit receivers. I know DJ Chark burned me one week by hitting his over. He's been good recently, but this field, this screams under for whatever his yardage is in this game. But the two that I'm looking at is the

official plays i have charke uh i have rex burkhead potentially over receiving yards chris moore over receiving yards i don't see numbers for them yet so that would be a determining factor of whether i went over or under on those but demarcus robinson saturday night over 36 and a half receiving yards that's one that i wanted to play against the gus edwards one he's just he is their funnel right now whether it was lamar whether it was huntley he is the one who's been seeing the targets he was on the injury report he's off the injury report he's fine for saturday evening but i think the one that i'm going to go with is an over from the saints falcons game chris olave is down to 59 and a half receiving yards. That's too low for the only good receiver in this entire game.

It is too low. I've not seen the Olave. He is on my list. He probably gets shadowed and I do not care. By who? AJ Tyrell? No. Correct.

Who hasn't been good? Been terrible. Actually, I think he's given up the most, I guess, guys he's been covering. I think he's given up seven touchdowns. A lot of big plays this season. So like people will think, you know, AJ Terrell had a really high draft pick first round pick had a nice year

last year. Do not be scared about AJ Terrell. Chris Olave is a baller and seeing a absolute crap ton of volume. So yeah, I like that look under 60 yards going over that on a lobby. So, and I'm with you on the shark thing too, as we just talked about,

I think they, it just is a natural bounce back here for that to regress and in a tough matchup. So, all right. A few that I like, I want to bet on Josh Jacobs, rushing attempts over when that comes out.

He is getting absolutely fed as the ladies got 21 or more in five straights, 24 more in four straight the raiders in a matchup against uh i wouldn't say that the rams are a stout run defense especially without aaron donald but like they're definitely not a good pass defense um better against the run and the raiders had a negative 20 pass rate over expectation last week against the rams like they just hand the ball off to Josh Jacobs over and over again. Patriots, I think, are better against the run. I think that they're, you know, we all kind

of agree that they're been kind of bolstered by a really soft schedule. So I think that they'll be able to do whatever they really kind of want here. They'll do a lot to try to shut down Devontae Adams. I think Josh Jacobs is in for a pretty massive workload. Dalton Schultz, I want to take, depending on where he's at, again, we want to see the numbers, not posted currently. He was running like part-time routes for a couple weeks in a row. And then the last two weeks, over 85% route participation. This is a really nice spot for them to bounce back offensively.

Jacksonville has been terrible against tight ends, 32nd in DVOA against the position. And now that Schultz is running close to 90% of the routes, this is a really nice spot for him. We're like, I think we'll probably get a still a pretty nice viable number because of last couple of weeks being pretty low or two or three weeks before being low from a route participation standpoint. So, and then as they have a checko, Texas defense is absolutely terrible. We got 66 or more on the ground for Pacheco and five straight contests, even though they will still lean pass heavy in the spots, because they are the chiefs.

Pacheco can get there on, you know, 14, 15 carries against this pretty terrible Texans defense. So those are a couple of ones that I really want to look at. The others you guys mentioned, Olave Herbert Herbert attempts, and Amon Ra receptions. A couple of tackles that I want to highlight as well. Again, not out currently, but again, 16 games late, I think we will get all of these. Well, we're not going to get a Jack Sanborn prop, unfortunately. Damn you books. Jack Sanborn, for those of you that have gone outside during the week or have a social life, don't know who Jack Sanborn is. Pat, smart. He's got friends. Jack

Sanborn has basically been the fill-in for Roquan Smith in Chicago since Roquan's moved on. Sanborn is a tackling machine. 12 tackles per game over the past four. That's about what I have him projected at in a really nice spot against the Eagles, who should be able to run a ton of plays and run a lot, especially late in that game. And Sanborn is really efficient as a tackler. He's got a couple games of like 15. He's been a beast. We'd love to have a Sanborn number.

Even if it's like 10, I'll probably take an over on sandboard julian love who plays safety for the giants he's got seven or more and six straight um they keep posting him at six and a half he'll even if he's at seven and a half i'll take him here it's a really really good spot against uh washington who um gets gives up a lot of tackles to linebackers and safeties we have three straight games with 10 or more for Julian Love. I'm not able to ladder tackle props. If you have bet 365, like some of our subs do, Manny has been able to make lots.

Yeah, you have bet 365? I mean, I live in Canada, so yeah. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, I've heard you talk about that on golf. You can ladder these props. Julian Love has been a fantastic way to do that. You could also do that with Jalen Petrie here. Petrie is a safety for the Texans.

Huge home scorekeeper edge for the Texans. Safeties against the Chiefs have been great. Petrie averaging 14 per game over the past two weeks. He'll probably be hung at six and a half or seven and a half. I have him closer to nine in my projections. So I think there's a massive edge he's playing every down. And then Josie Jewell, linebacker for the Broncos here. Massive scorekeeper advantage in Denver.

Actually the best in the game. They give up our basically tackles per opportunity. That number is the highest in Denver. Jewell has 10 or more in four of the past five, including last week for us. basically tackles per opportunity. That number is the highest in Denver. Jewell has 10 or more in four of the past five, including last week for us. He'll probably be a nine and a half or 10 and a half, depending on what that juice is.

I'll look for Josie Jewell as a pretty good play. So again, you want to be in the subscriber discord to get the official plays there, but those are some of the ones that I feel like my projections are going to be higher than when these guys have been booked the last couple of weeks. What was the Petrie number you'd play them up till um i play seven and a half as long as it's not like minus 130 minus 140 so like those we'd be killing it so again this is a

four four dot com slash plants uh use promo code next level get in the subscriber discord get those official plays uh you can dm me access to the tackle projections if you want because a lot of times we'll have like juice plays that don't make a ton of sense to necessarily play as an official play but again if you're playing vivid prize picks um there's some ways to attack that market since you're not having to play the actual juice that you would on a one-for-one prop so four for four dot Slash 43 hung Very unique code But maybe worth Taking a look at

He's hung Maybe the quickest show Sal wanted us to be in and out under an hour I have a couple more I want to ask you guys About We're good We got a little bit more time here okay so some some props are just are just dropping so get some little instant

reactions here uh samajay pirine over under 11 and a half rushing yards yes now you know what no not against tampa right yeah that's why i was like he'll probably get four to five carries he's using a little bit more than he was last time like before mixon's injury um and then both zeke and pollard's number 55 and a half for zeke 52 and a half for pollard jacksonville's worth like a horrible pass defense but i mean they're not that good at defending the run either so i mean that number on both these guys just seems low uh i don't know any any thoughts i like the over on both of those yeah I just like Zeke to score a touchdown. What's that? Minus 110? Probably.

Let's see if we can find it. Zeke may have had 38 carries from the three-yard line last week. He got in once. He got in when it counted. Zeke on DraftKings minus 120 any time touchdown. Give me a boost draft kings figure it out

and then one more desmond ritter what's your your desmond ritter take pat i legit don't know russian maybe 20 yeah 24 and a half i mean i don't know i think they're gonna use him kind of like almost identically to marcus mariota but uh i feel like that's kind of hot take because he didn't like he wasn't used a ton as the design runner but he can run very well and he's super athletic so he took sacks at an insane rate in college uh and was absolutely abysmal under pressure um like really really really really bad if you happen to have access to like team I mentioned this in the chat this morning um and I know it's a prize picks play if you happen to have a book that gives team stats um on prize picks saints two and a half uh sacks i think is a great look they are third and adjusted sack rate uh on the season and again

like again they're not going to drop back a ton but i think that there's a lot of room for uh ritter to take some sacks here in the spot so i don't know i don't know what i think they're going to run basically the Marriott offense. Okay. So just some breaking news here. Chase Claypool has been ruled out for this week. I mean, he has to go study.

I mean, Justin Fields, passing number 166 at rivers, 164. It's so low, but like, who is he going to pass you? Like,

how is he going to get 170 passing yards against one of the best secondaries in the league i just i just don't understand how like i mean is that too low for you guys i know that this is like definitely not your guys brand plays but i feel like this is a good opportunity it's so low i mean but yeah i don't know who he's throwing to cole commit 37 and a half uh which is actually taking some action right now is probably like commits out there running routes like elite level, because he literally has to. I don't know how he does not see a ton of work here, though. I don't know that I want to take any passing game overs with the Bears offense or against the Eagles defense.

But yeah, it's rough. I think it supports bats play even more, to be honest, on the field rushing stuff to be perfectly. I'm ripping the under. I got to do it. I mean, it's just, you know, I just have to. I feel like it's one of those things where he's going to end up with like 130 passing yards, go well under and have like one big play. I don't know.

Is Nikhil Harry even playing? Like who's even starting for this team at this point? Equinemius A. Brown. The heir to the chip fortune, Mr. Pringle. Oh, Byron. Is he is he's back and alive that's good good to hear yeah not dead that's that's a positive like do we think goddard's gonna be back oh i thought so but i'm not sure yeah what about quez walk-ins unders because walk-ins didn't do shit until goddard went down

yeah yeah but he's such a the a dot's been pretty good hasn't it been for quez yeah but it's two and a half receptions this is over under that's a great i think a great look i think it's juice pretty badly but you know whatevs can drink the juice yeah i mean what we got it's not even no one's moving and no one wants it equinamia saint brown is out there uh 18 and a half uh receiving yards i mean he's gonna have to get targeted right like again i'm trying to just do the math where you can't you can't right if it's going to be colt combat and saint brown and pringle like someone's doing something here uh if we're getting 160 or 150 passing yards from from Justin Fields which we're probably not but uh yeah there's I I can't I could not take I would

not want to watch that and be cheering for overs for any any Bears receivers here but uh theoretically someone has to catch a forward pass and uh the books don't know what to do with that right now uh quez walkins two and a half minus 155 on rivers minus 156 on caesar's like minus 180 on dk but like i mean it's like is he even gonna see three targets like i i think in the majority of outcomes he's probably not even seeing three targets especially i guess this is probably a wait and see if goddard's back i think i would actually probably consider playing it even at minus 155 uh if not then you know obviously you don't want to put yourself in that kind of hole hey more time in the playbook for young chase claypool and then what about uh kamara receiving prop reception prop four and a half plus money on the over no mark ingram should play basically

like every snap i am not touching anything elvin kamara ever again it's very yeah i looked at it now it's getting action too uh because i looked at you know i had rushing receiving as something i wanted to look at when it came out it just it opened i thought a little too high even though no ingram the coach speak is good where you're getting like we want to get him more involved uh it's a good matchup theoretically but i'm with pat like the kamara stuff is like the aaron jones stuff where you feel like yeah there could be absolute smash weeks i don't know how aaron jones didn't destroy in detroit that week at the time like um there's just feels like there's so much volatility where you're probably better off laddering if you like kamara you have any conviction

you probably just think he explodes for a massive, a massive game versus just as binary. Yes, no problem. Yeah, for sure. Just some other, another look here on Watkins prior to week 10, which is when he Dallas got her, got injured. He saw more than three targets in one game. Was it cause walk-in somewhere in three targets in one game.

So yeah, pretty solid sample there. If I'm not doing Jack shit without with Dallas Goddard in the lineup. But do we think that Goddard plays a full compliment of snaps then? That's a good question. Or do you, I don't know what any Eagles do. I mean,

Eagles have been very, very comfortable benching their guys, which makes some of these, you know, an AJ Brown, that's just too low for this matchup against the bears. But it's like, if he doesn't get there in the first half, like, i mean eagles have been very very comfortable benching their guys uh which makes some of these you know an aj brown that's just too low for this matchup against the bears but it's like if he doesn't get there in the first half like i don't know that he's running any rounds in the fourth quarter you know it's a tough that's a tough spot yeah more stuff coming out so good matchup for mclaurin but mclaurin's that guy too we We've talked about so many times where like McLaurin's the guy that you ladder. The Giants have even more injuries, believe it or not, in the secondary this week.

They're rolling out some real scrubs in the back half, you know, on the perimeter. So McLaurin could and should feast here. But 60 and a half is just never a spot for McLaurin because you feel like, oh, he could move the air ball. Or he's a guy that has 90 and a half is just never a spot for McLaurin. Cause you feel like, Oh, you could keep moving the air ball or he's a guy that has 90 to half. And you're like, why the hell didn't I take the McLaurin prop? Probably a DFS play or a ladder option. So that's, yeah,

that's a, I think I've emptied the clip on my list here, guys. It's tough as always. Pat work and everyone find all of your great content at the PME over on Mayo media network and the Pat Mayo experience. So Mayo media network on YouTube, mayo experience audio podcast uh my good friend tambo is at the draft kings fantasy football world championships at the moment as he tries to win 2.5 million dollars 3.4 tax-free

canadian dollars by the way if he wins which is always very nice that's why you want to be you want to be canadian if you're going to be a DFS player. But he came sixth at King of the Beach last week, so he gave me $2,000 to give away to the peoples who watched the show. So you can find out how to get into those draws. There's $1,000 remaining of the $2,000. I don't know what happened to the other 1,000,

but we're giving away that last $1 on next friday's pat mayo experience so even if you don't like me or don't care about me but want a thousand bucks just watch like the first 30 seconds of the show and you can find out how to get your ballots into that draw to see if you can be a winner too want to be a winner watch the pat mayo experience love it love it you'll, uh, you'll enjoy hanging out along the way. Uh, good times as always. And no one does. Yeah.

No one does. No one likes that. It's not the three hour show, right? No, not that one. Not the, the,

yeah. Not a great way. Like, would you think if you were ever to get into my show, what's the easiest show to get into? Um, it can't be the me, Custin Jeff show.

That's impossible yeah it's probably a little bit too like inside baseball if you haven't been like hanging out you know with you guys for a bit um although i don't know like it's yeah because the cuss stuff is so like you can't actually think that that's a real person you have to think that that would be like a a scripted show so um you know because, because there's more, I think probably professionalism with some actual betters, like Pizzola is a guy that like is not a, you know, it's more of a straight shooter.

I'm sure on your show is probably a little bit more loose, but that'd probably be the softest landing spot for the Pat Mayo show. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, the best bet show on Thursday that just came out, although it does have Cam on it, right?

Yeah, that's true. Cam's talking about putting ice in red wine yesterday. Good lord. What the hell? In red wine? Yeah, in red wine. I could see like a cube in white wine if you had to. Sure. But red wine, oh my god. Yeah, you just get, you know, you want to drink it,

you just get the white from the store. It's not chilled yet. Do you even need your red wine chilled? I don't. No. I mean, your white wine? No, my red wine. Definitely not red wine chilled.

Yeah, like why are people putting ice cubes in it? That's strange. I mean, like maybe like sangria, but that's like different, you know? Yeah. Sangria is like cold, but that's it. Yeah, still no. So anyway, the last like four minutes of this show is very much what myria is like cold but that's it yeah still no so anyway the last like four minutes of this show is very much what my show is like but with way way more minus ev bets yeah yeah if you're

a golf fan i don't know how you haven't found you know pat and jeff um at this point that's uh enjoyable my favorite part is just waiting for pat to yell at Jeff for something, whether being on his phone, you know, Pat asked him a question, Jeff's not paying attention because he's trying to place a bet somewhere. Pat gets mad. Jeff kind of shrieks and gets sad. That's my favorite part. So, Connor, what's coming up with you? I'm just trying to grind some of these props that are coming out here. I don't know we might go out to dinner tonight i feel like that that'll be fun right you know is that that's a little are we still 50 50 on that yeah we're going into the mayo media network christmas party tonight

oh that'd be a good time yeah just fire up the betsports uh pj and uh hop on right yeah just talk to reed you'll be good. Yeah, we know a guy. Yeah, Connor, we're going to have some marks tonight. Probably talk props about dinner. Good times as always. Again, 444.com slash plans. Promo code NEXTLEVEL. We'll get you an additional 25% off of the already discounted

subscription price. Again, it gets you access to literally every tool on the site. All of our sports, our crown jewel, which I really do think is the Discord, which allows you to you access to literally every tool on the site, all of our sports, our crown jewel, which I really do think is the Discord, which allows you to get access to us, chat with us, get all of the picks as soon as we push them live. So check that out. And again, good stuff as always from Pat and Connor.

And I am Ryan. We'll see you next week. Thanks, everybody. Yeah! Thank you.