Move The Line - Week 16 NFL Prop Bets

Episode Date: December 23, 2022

Week 16 NFL Prop Bets from Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Week 16 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps:0:00 Intro7:30 Connor Prop Bet #1 15:23 Pat Prop Bet #1  17:51 Ryan Prop Bet #1 21:12 Connor Prop Bet #2 26:32 Pat Prop Bet #229:23 Ryan Prop Bet #231:28 Connor Prop Bet #3 32:55 Pat Prop Bet #335:56 Ryan Prop Bet #339:35 Connor Prop Bet #441:55 Pat Prop Bet #445:00 Ryan Prop Bet #449:05 Bonus Prop Bet53:07 Q+A Props1:03:04 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line, Prop Drop Show. I'm Ryan Noonan, back with my friends to talk about the best way, the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is through player props. Live here, 2 p.m. Eastern every Friday. We're keeping this train rolling all the way through the Super Bowl as well, giving you our favorite player props and taking your questions. So if you're hanging out with us now on YouTube, subscribe so you don't miss a show. Smash the like button for us. Goes a long way in helping us out and jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop look for Week 16 is. If you want thoughts on a play, feel free to ask.

We'll try to get to as many as possible at the end of the show. Joining me here, as always, Freezing, along with me here in Chicago, where we woke up to a real feel of negative 33 degrees, which I looked, Pat, that's a like negative like three for you guys. No, that can't be true. Negative three is like 26 degrees. Negative three is 26 degrees for us? No, well, the app that I was using,

the weather app that I was using was incorrect. So I tried to do the research because I knew you were going to be like negative 33. What the hell does that mean? But it means as cold as balls and you don't want to go anywhere near the windows or outside. Let's see. Celsius to Fahrenheit conversion. What'd you say it was? Negative what? 33. Oh my God. Negative 33 is negative 36 Celsius. Oh, well, holy crap. I was way off, but it's cold. It's's cold negative like 10 is the real temperature and then the wind is is brutal so connor you surviving i mean first of all you're

going to mexico in a couple weeks i am very passionate two days yeah i'm i'm happy for you as a friend to go and experience that and that time of year i know you do this every year but i'm very passively uh angry about it yeah i'll be uh i'll be doing some shows from the beach you know maybe get luis in the background to throw in a prop or two and uh yeah just one two more days of this hell and then i'll be escaping thankfully it is i just did the conversion where i am it's 56 degrees here welcome to canada that's yeah that's that's that's kind of what we had last week which is this like that's part of why it's so hard too is we've actually had decent weather it was just this

massive drop in the course of 12 hours yesterday with snow and apropos because it is a very much a weather slate and I'm sure that'll come into some handicaps here a little bit but uh yeah but here's the one thing I'll say about that to kick it off and i saw actually your colleague tj hernandez tweet out about this and he's absolutely right is that the weather is baked into all these numbers already so if you try to factor it in again then you're doubling down on something that's already factored in yeah that's a good point double counting can be can be a problem for sure and then we know too like connor's i know you've got some research and we've done some stuff at four for four over the years around you know cold weather not really

mattering snow not mattering more so wind sustained winds and gusty winds yeah the only thing that the research that we added here because like as we've talked about multiple times in the show wind only matters over 15 miles per hour but like really matters over 20 miles per hour we don't really have that that too much of that in this slate besides one or two games. And, but what does we have noticed Chris Allen pulled for us password over expectation in games that are like single digits and Ted teams tend to call more runs in those games than passes like compared to their expectation. So that is slightly notable and may not be baked into the numbers, but to Pat's point, like they're certainly from an efficiency standpoint, baked into a lot of these numbers especially from a passing perspective like these numbers are low

uh for the most part and in some spots it may not be warranted well to look at it too just to kind of clarify the like the real weather game that i'm concerned about is the cleveland saints game and maybe the baltimore atlanta game okay and i feel like chicago has like 20 something mile per hour winds do you think that matters at all that was something that i had on my list but i wasn't sure how much it was going to matter the front radar i saw was like an average around 10 miles per hour with gusts up a little bit higher but oh that's not bad i love the over in that game by the way yeah i'm into it too for sure that's i think we talked about that on our other show because i think on the ground they can get it done 40 and a half are you kidding me

take my money and it's juice to the under well we can take your money you got more of it to give away because pat had a massive draft kings score last week so congrats to you sir uh obviously joining us as always the man from the mayo media network uh pat mayo himself um so congrats buddy nice little uh nice little holiday spent i'm sure for the kids if they even know about it when they when they tell you dallas's defense is good don't listen to them that's all i'll say via conjury lauren uh also we want to remind you we have a new youtube channel as well for for bets uh unique content over there so subscribe and check that out too and there's two episodes of move a line each week both available here on youtube and then in podcast form as well this is our prop drop show wednesday night 7 30 eastern uh we have a game preview show where connor john

daigle and myself get more into size of totals. Connor was referencing how we were talking about that Chicago game there too. So I definitely want to go back and check that out. Also, I want to let you know, regular season winding down. Still like six, seven weeks of football left to go, but now is the time to scoop up a betting subscription at 4 for 4. Betting sub gets you access to everything on the site, every sport, article, tool from now through the end of February.

That'll cover all your football needs there. Subscriber-only Discord is really the place to be. Gets you access to all of our bets as soon as we make them. We have a very active crowd in there too. They help us steam some lines. So definitely the place to be if you're just kind of waiting for the articles to come on on the site, you're probably missing the best of the number there. Covering NBA, college hoops, MMA. I don't know if we cover we still covering soccer connor now that the world cup is

over uh it's in the works maybe get some some epl going uh some some champions league stuff i think the people seem to like it so i'm interested to see if that kind of stuff you know rolls over and anything else so we'll see we'll see i know the owner of our company likes betting uh corner kick props and stuff like that he told me so you, maybe there's different iterations of the way to bet soccer versus just, you know, banging unders, which I imagine is probably pretty profitable. But if you point on any pick'em sites as well, prize picks, underdog, vivid, things of that nature. If you don't have legalized betting in your state, we do have specific channels.

We post plays in there as well. John Daigle, TJ Hernandez providing a ton of DFS content. All of that's covered in the betting subscription over at 444. Already discounted on the site. If you use promo code NEXTLEVEL, you'll get an additional 25% off. So, I guess. And to throw down on that, PrizePix has an offer today only, the Friday. Their new six play.

If you go six for six and you put your entry in on a Friday, it's 33 to one. Yep. I did it. It was, it's awesome. It feels good. It feels like, you know, it's, I'm not actually getting ripped off on the odds for once. So it's, it felt good to put in that entry. Six Lager. Okay. I'm going to have to get in there. So yeah, that's Friday only. So definitely check that out. I'll probably try to do my best to put out a six six legger for you today too again those are free channels um that you can get access to by being part of the discord so all right connor let you get started with your first official week 16 look awesome i'm gonna get started with probably my favorite over of the week here and that's gonna be dalvin cook over 76 and a half rushing yards. And I like this for multiple reasons here.

I think that the Vikings are in a much better off spot running the ball against this giants team who plays a ton of man and they blitz a ton. Number one in the league in both categories. And that's something that Kirk cousins has struggled against generally against man coverage, 50% completion rate against the blitz, 50% completion rate. And not only that, the giants are sixth in pressure rate. So i know we got burned on this a little bit uh with you know against the patriots but patriots don't really blitz as much and i think in this spot here the giants are just true

to what they are in terms of blitzing and playing man so how do they get around that giants 31st from 1d dboa 30th and 1 epa 31st explosive run rate a lot i think the dalvin cook sees 20 plus carries and they've been just getting wrecked on the ground here. They've allowed a ton of players to go over a hundred yards. They've allowed multiple players to go over the 76 yard number. And that's like the scrubs like Kenyon Drake, you know, rush for 119 yards. Even Damian Pierce back in his, you know, heyday, 94 yards.

Brian Robinson had around 90 plus yards in two matchups. Like if you look at who they played, they were just getting wrecked. So I normally played double cook over 76. I played over 80, 90, a hundred, 110, 125 at alternate odds.

Because if this pans out, I expect it to Dalvin cook should have just like a massive, massive day here on the ground. When you bet the lead player over like this aggressively, it definitely catches my attention. It's hard to argue that it's not a great matchup. I like the laddering of it as well. Pat, what do you have for Dalvin Cook this week? I have Dalvin Cook at one of my stronger plays on the board. I have his median at 82 and a half. So, and that's only on 16 carries.

So any sort of competitive type of game, or if it's close enough with the Vikings with the lead, where they just run on first and second down every single time and don't mix in Madison those ladders are most definitely in play plus he has that big big play potential that we saw against the Colts I know that was against the softer shell defense with them being up by a gazillion points but he can break off we've seen him break off even enough big runs this year that he can like he's one of the there's actually a few guys on the slate this week that could challenge like 200 yards rushing and he's one of them yeah and then that's just they refuse to not play in close games right that's kind of their mo even over the last two years like so i don't think we're gonna get in a scenario where they blow anyone out and on

the other side too the giants continue to just find ways to stay in games too. I don't know really how. It's just a lot of smoke and mirrors, I feel like, but it's happening. We're in week 16 and here we are. I'm never really sure how they ever score, but they tend to win a bunch of all games. So, Penn, I'm going to kick you off guard here. This is an interesting topic. I want to know what your thoughts are. I don't know if you get into any of the awards markets, but we had a good discussion the other night on our Wednesday show around coach of the year. Connor's got a big

preseason ticket on Nick Sirianni, the massive favorite right now. Although I think it's closed a little bit compared to where it was. I think he is definitely the odds on favorites. We talked about how, do you think some other players that are in this market that should be in the mix uh probably off market so so there are two honestly like dan campbell has all the buds he's second in the market i don't believe that he deserves to win but you know who cares what i think he's three to one currently sirianni still minus 200 but the two that i would look at like if the jags went out and make the playoffs, Doug Peterson, super live and he's 10 to one, but I still think it's day ball. I think day ball actually is the coach of the year. He's doing all of this nice work with the giants

with the biggest bunch of scrubs I've ever seen. Totally agree. I got down on it this week. I got like 28. I got a little 25 as well. Yeah. I yeah i i just i do think it's one of those these i think the award markets in general are really tough because they are so narrative driven uh my argument to connor while i do again think that he's sirianni's in good position to take this home they were they did close as the nfc east favorites um i don't think that they anyone thought they were going to be 16-1 or anything like that, so he definitely is exceeding expectations. This Giants team is terrible.

The defense is bad. There's no talent on offense. The media drools all over Dayball when you watch games. Collinsworth, they probably had to mop the floor when he was done. Anytime he had a chance to give anyone credit on the giants, it was just, Oh my God, did you see day by that call?

Like he, they love day ball. And I just feel like there's enough steam where, and they're in the playoffs. They lose this week. They still have a 71% chance of making the playoffs. The giants are like locked in almost to the 60. Whereas like Campbell,

to your point, and that was my pushback to Connor was Kimball Kimball. Like they have to win out to the sixth seed. Whereas like Campbell, to your point, and that was my pushback to Connor was Campbell, Campbell, like they have to win out to make the playoffs. You should not be that far apart from some of these other guys. And I think Peterson's a good call out too. So what do you think about your man? Well,

what do you think about Shanahan? I mean, on his third quarterback, the team is obviously awesome, but like, I mean, Brock Purdy is going out there and playing well. Like I feel like there's some,

and they're one of the best teams in the league. So I feel like that is a little bit of an interesting narrative that could catch on with some of the media guys. I mean, Brock Purdy is going out there and playing well. Like, I feel like there's some, and they're one of the best teams in the league. So I feel like that is a little bit of an interesting narrative that could catch on with some of the media guys. I mean, any thoughts about him? Like, I feel like that I'm looking ways to cover my ass here because you know, I'm in deep on Sirianni. Obviously I think he's still the best year. And if the Eagles win this week against Dallas, which I think they're live to do, I mean, it's a lock it's over. Like it doesn't matter. It's over. He wins with Minshew. It's over. Yeah, he beats Dallas with Minshew. You're good.

The only way that I think he loses is if they go 0-3 without Hurts. And Hurts probably comes back next week anyway, so it's not that big of a deal. But, I mean, Shanahan would be number two on my ballot. I just feel like people expect him to be good, and that works against you in this market. That's why historically, again, I know people don't love Belichick.

He's got like two coach of the years ever. I just can't ever, you really can't convince me that there have been seasons where he didn't get a lot. They had a team, they almost went to the Super Bowl, where Shea Caldwell was their best wide receiver back in like 05, 06. It was not pretty back there. So there are times where it's definitely narrative driven, exceeding expectations. So I'm with you, Connor. I'm cheering for your

ticket. It's a nice one. I just think that right now the rest of the market is off to kind of Pat's point. I do think that Shanahan is viable. I think the Peterson play is a good call. And I think should be significantly closer to Campbell versus kind of where the market currently is that's why for sure and one one last thing here before we hop off there was a uh executive poll here uh that young and fearless brought up here in the chat that uh it was nick sirianni led the way with like eight votes among executives and then it was shanahan with like six and then dayball with like four so i think if you're gonna bet anyone right now it is probably maybe a sprinkle on dayball and shanahan hope that the eagles fall out um and even if they lose this week maybe you know you'll probably get an even better number on sirian if you want to kind of like circle back and double back later

so i think that's probably how i'd approach the market right now i would also i mean the people who vote on these awards are the football pro football right right so what the executives think and what the writers think are two different things very true i agree again you have the new york market narrative and you know expectations of the giants were pretty low coming into the season and this team is again not sure how it's happening but it continues to happen so all right pat first play for you well that i mean just to finish that off that's also the thing about dan campbell as well like if we just reverse ourselves to august this is where people expected the lions to be it's just the path that they took to get here built in these unrealistic expectations of, oh, they're terrible. Oh,

and now they're really good. No, this is exactly where the market had them being at like six and seven, seven and seven. Yeah, no, that's a great point. It's not too far off. So yeah, it's a good call. I am going with an under to start off with, with those aforementioned Lions. I got burned on this one week, and then I hit it last week because it played out exactly how I thought it was going to play out, which so rarely happens. But I'm going to go back to the well this week because I actually think the Panthers' defense is structured

a lot like the Jets' defense. It's sort of like the C-minus version of the Jets' defense. But the one thing that they do similarly is they put sauce Gardner on someone on the outside. Then that guy just doesn't get thrown at the entire game. It's not that different from Carolina when they just put JC horn on someone and they just don't throw that direction the entire game. And I believe for the second consecutive week,

that DJ Chark is going to be the guy that gets sacrificed to the elite corner. Just don't throw near him, beat them over the middle. That's how you beat the Panthers in the passing game. So DJ Chirk under 33 and a half receiving yards. I'm worried he gets us all in one play. It makes me look foolish like he did last time or two times ago when I brought this up,

but just he's either like 80 yards or two yards. And it feels like more of a two yard game than an 80 yard game. Yeah. This is a play you've been on Connor at times in the last couple of weeks. Yeah. We also took, we took Josh Reynolds. I was listening to going back through our show notes.

I took Josh Reynolds under last week for basically the same reason, because his number was like only five yards less. And I was looking at it. I was like, both him and shark were just complaining outside and just get eaten up by the jets. And that exactly happened. They both just got eaten up.

Reynolds didn't even see a target. Looks likeke over under two and a half receptions um i mean any thoughts there i feel like if you're worried about the one play with charke you know like i mean does he even see three four targets um he he may because they have used him in motion in the red zone a lot that's so they they bring him on the inside and throw him quick little passes i can see that and they go for it on fourth down so much that everyone is just selling out to stop amon raw that he could just be standing there by himself so i'm just trying to fade the deep pass yeah no for sure that makes makes a ton of sense there i wonder when they're gonna get jameson williams more involved too because he like saw a slight trajectory and then just nothing last week. It was just next year.

Yeah, pretty much at this point, they just don't seem too interested in getting him going. I think maybe to like fits more of out indoor in Detroit thing than them doing stuff where they're not, I think they're really trying to protect and hide golf as much as they can. And that's a non-weather situation this week. It's going to be really cold there,

but I think again, nothing that should impact any of the handicaps um i'm going to start with an under as well it's moved a little bit versus where um it was when we first played yesterday taylor heineke under it looks like draft king still has under 190 and a half passing yards on heineke uh looks like that's the best out there. Yeah. Pretty good price on Rivers too. Moved a little bit. Played it at 198 yesterday.

But he's been really bad. And I think they're going to have a really difficult time moving the football here. They're leaning really run heavy over the last couple of weeks with Heineke. They actually haven't had a positive pass rate over expectation since week five. That was with Carson Wentz. And that's part of it too. There's definitely some grumblings locally within the media there to go back because they technically are currently the seventh seed. The Heineke experience hasn't been great as of late to really kind of not close either one of those Giants games was pretty rough. Again, this Niners defense is tremendous, actually both stopping the run and the pass. If you kind of look at some weighted stuff over the last half of the season,

they are by far the best defense in the league and best against the pass. And I do think that there is an angle here where we do see Carson Wentz maybe at a bad, after a bad second half, a bad first half for Heineken. And obviously this number is not accounting for that. So I think that that's more than a less than 0% chance of happening if he gets off to a really rough start. So I'm fine with it, even though it's still moved. It's down to where we are.

I'm fine with 190 and a half on DraftKings, on Heineken going under 190. Connor, I think you jumped in with me here. I did, yes. I think it's a great look. I think that added risk of in-game benching helps. I think the matchup helps. 90 connor i think you jumped in with me here i did yes uh i think it's a great look you know i think that added risk of in-game benching helps i think the matchup helps kind of what we're going to see probably see the niners during the clock here probably won't see heineken be efficient even

if he does play the whole game so there's a ton of outs here it's i'm was very excited when you played that you tagged me in it i was not by my computer at the time so tailed it i'm on board with that as well but uh we did just get like a little push notification here that Cowboys rookie defensive end, Sam Williams will not play following a vehicle collision Friday and play no dealing with concussion next year. And so brutal tough there. I don't know if that's what Pat was reacting to,

but that's why I just saw a pop on my screen at the same time. So Pat, where are you at on Heineken this week? I have no real feel for him. I think that the commanders are going at on Heineken this week? I have no real feel for him. I think that the commanders are going to be weirdly live in this game. And I think a lot of it's going to be Curtis Samuel thinking dunks over the middle and then just shots down the field. I just don't think that's what the Niners are going to expect. So I think that's probably the best case for

Washington here. Now, if they do stay to script, I think that you come into the game against the Niners knowing you can't run on them. So I think their game plan is going to be completely changed. So it might just be a whole lot of up chucking from Heineke. So I haven't projected like 240 yards here. So this is a stay away for me. Yeah. The only thing, even when we saw them play like Atlanta, um, not so long ago, like very much a spot that leads you to like, are you can pass on Atlanta. They are, you can run on them too. Yeah, no, they're terrible, but they didn't like, they were drastically run heavy.

So like even the most inviting spot for you to throw a little bit, they still skewed massively run heavy. So I could see that, but I think they have difficulty doing really anything against the Niners. So, and I would love to see, never said this in my life. I'd love to see Carson Wentz play some football in the second half of this game. So, all right, Connor, back to you. Number two.

Yeah, I'm going to keep the under train rolling here. I'm going to go with James Connor under. It looks like you're able to get a 72 and a half rushing yards at, looks like rivers right now. There's still some seventies out there at DraftKings and BetMGM. But I mean, basically this spot I know his usage has been awesome, but seven and a half point underdogs, Trace McSorley is going to get the start. I think Trace McSorley is horrible. I don't think that they move the ball very well. So, you know, as big underdogs with McSorley, probably not leading consistent drives.

Basically it's a Bucs defense. I mean, they're, I wouldn't say good, but they're above average here. And so I feel like in this spot, this number is just too high. Just in general, there's like a lot of outs, whether it's game script, whether it's, you know, inefficiency. So I just think there's multiple outs here on the number for a guy like James Conner that even though he's seeing a ton of work, like it's not, you know, I just not sure it's enough here. Like you would need, I mean, for me to feel good about like this,

or for me to be scared about going under, like he needs like 18, 19, 20 carries, which he can get, but I still feel like we might go under at that point i had this one on my short list as well and i had it 69 and a half is the under so at draft kings but i i like that call i see it the same way yeah again the volume concerns are are frightening he's he's playing almost every down for that team um and i feel like they want to try to hide McSorley early, especially. So if he has any success, he can,

you know, if he has a decent first half, it's going to be a tough sweat, but I think the process for it is, is really sound. So I think we're going to see a lot of like run, run past punt, you know,

like it's going to be for sure. And so, you know, just like early on in the game, it's just a brutal, like, like McSorley just sucks. Like he's literally was drafted in 2019, six round pick.

First career start is coming in mop up duty, played for the Ravens a little bit. And like, I don't know, they tried to use them kind of like as Tyler Huntley sometimes, or just like some, you know, Taysom Hill kind of package quarterback at times. But I just think he's a horrible quarterback. So, uh, you know, it does. I just don't see that moving the ball much at all. I want to tie on a look to that because it's not a play for me yet. So I want to see more information.

Hollywood Brown popped up on the injury report yesterday with a groin injury. Taken off today, by the way. Oh, was he? Okay. All right. I was going to want to see the injury report today. Okay. Because he's up at 46 and a half, which is probably too many receiving yards anyway,

in the spot with the volume you saw last week with both Cole McCoy and McSorley in that game. But again, if there's any concerns, obviously when you see midweek injuries, it's not great practice in full on Wednesday limited on Thursday because of that. But like Pat said, practice today, but still maybe a viable play in this matchup. Why don't we just take trace McSorley unders? Were they at one 90? Yeah. I mean mean i think that's a good play too i guess my only reason was that um like i liked tampa bay to have a lot of success so i just feel like they could throw the ball like

50 times like you know i was worried about the get the back store under but we've talked about this before it usually doesn't matter and he's so bad that doesn't like generally doesn't matter um but like i would almost rather just play like maybe a marquise Brown under but maybe the McSorley unders I think you would just bomb unders across the board honestly with if if it is like the run run pass punt that we're I'm expecting then it just won't matter like everything will every under will hit is Taysom Hill starting uh that's that's worth talking about I know Noonan we played the over on his rushing yards earlier I don't know if that was one of your plays. Sorry to bomb that there, but it's moved up like 43.

I think he could play like three quarters of the game. I mean, he's going to be involved. I mean, he's been involved a lot anyways. At 25 carries the last four weeks. And some tough matchups in there, San Francisco, Tampa Bay. And now you have this like one of the places we've all kind of agreed on that the weather does matter of what's going to happen in Cleveland this week with 30 of the mile per hour sustained with gusts up to 50.

No Chris Alave. Like, they just have to get kind of wonky with what they're going to do offensively. They were fine doing that last week with David Johnson, of all people. So I imagine if they can see an uptick in, Connor and I were talking, if we get nine to ten tasem hill touches you know we played the over on 35 and a half i still think you can like correlate the same game parlay there uh even though it's kind of steamed up a little bit with like nick chubb

running a bunch and tasem running a bunch i just even if he doesn't start i can't imagine he's not heavily involved in the game plan yeah no it's uh and now we got the report i think that pat saw as well from nick honderhill like literally the best saints b reporter saying that he's going to be featured heavily nick's a guy that when he reports things like that he generally knows something else um and like you know there's probably more going on there behind just nick guessing that taste mill is gonna be more involved um so i i think this is the smartest move they could do, by the way. We I suggested this on my spread show on Tuesday. It's like if the weather is going to be this bad, Dalton sucks.

At least if you use Taysom Hill, you can shorten the game, create a better run approach against a crappy run defense. Just try to grind out a game 10-3 or something. Yeah, there there is another look to that I thought was fun would be andy dalton under half a passing touchdown at plus 130 uh because they get in the red zone they're probably gonna put tasem in like for sure so it would have to be like a long touchdown with giving the wind no alave no landry like where is that gonna come from i mean i don't know plus 130 i thought it would be kind of fun i don't love touchdown props in general but worth a look yeah good sound reasoning behind that one.

All right, so we touched on that. Pat, back to you for your second play. Well, I'm going to cross off James Conner, not play that one, and I will go to that same Arizona game and go with an over Tom Brady, over 269.5 passing yards. He is the highest projected passing yard leader of the week for me at 314 now the bucks always do something stupid like try to run the ball 800 times for no success but they gotta they they have to win this game this game is their cushion and it's a very winnable game for them

they just need to go back to the dink and dunk weirdly russell gage coming back last week kind of i don't want to say unlocked their offense but it looked a lot more competent than it has recently. And this is a team that just gave up a whole bunch of passing yards to Britt Rippin. So I think Tom Brady and the short passing game are going to be a very good look on Sunday. And is Arizona the most popular dog of the week? Does that seem that way to you guys? I mean, seven and a half, I get why people would maybe be on it. I think actually Tampa's, I've heard a lot as a pretty popular teaser.

Like, cause you can tease through the seven through the three, but man, I can't, I can't imagine laying actual earned money with on trace McSorley here. Yeah. It'd be a tough scene, right?

Yeah. Like you just regret it right away. I mean, that was, that was my handicap for last night's game. And we were talking about it on our show on Wednesday. It was like, the jets is a decent spot,

but like, do I want that game to start? And for me to have actual money on Zach Wilson, give me the better quarterback. So I have the Jags, I took the Jags as a teaser. Like, so that's kind of how I did that one,

but this is the same premise. Like I, I didn't want to like oversimplify a game handicap to just the quarterback, but man, sometimes I think it's, it's enough. Well, Like I, I don't want to like oversimplify a game handicap to just the quarterback, but man, sometimes I think it's, it's enough. Well, it's funny because there's one prop I really wanted this week and I can't find it.

Maybe you guys can. I've searched everywhere. I can't find any Marquise Goodwin props. I don't think he's out yet. Let me see. Everyone else from that game is out. He's not. Yeah.

Maybe they just wanted to make sure that he was going to be active because he uh he had injury questions yeah but he's going to be why can't they post the line because either he plays or he doesn't yeah i see nothing on him yeah he's genuinely questionable if he plays he's going to go off in this game no offense posted and he was genuinely questionable as well so yeah it's a good point we'll probably see him he probably opens up i mean if he doesn't play i really need to blow up my lineups on draft kings yeah he's i guess obviously track fast we know that so good spot with obviously with tyler lockett out of the lineup i think dk is in a nice spot too you know as far as draft kings goes dk will be very very popular so um different than

game theory that you need to incorporate in the dfs streets for sure and pat knows he prints money there we go so all right uh next one for me i'm gonna go with a tackle we got uh caden ellis saints linebacker uh over seven and.5 tackles and assists. This is out still on DraftKings at minus 125, which I think is still very much playable. Ellis has played really well when he got a chance this season in three games with Pete Warner out. Warner came back last week.

They both played like 60% of the snaps. Warner's back out, so we're going to have Ellis back in an every down roll. The three games that he had in every down roll 12 13 and 8 and none of those spots were as favorable as this one for a multitude of reasons we obviously know the weather concerns here um there is not going to be a lot of forward pass there is going to be a lot of rushing attempts both defenses are terrible against the run anyway so we're probably going to see a lot of rushing attempts anyway um i like way brought down the play volume concerns here, just in case like we do have three plays and a punt. So I'm pretty conservative and I still have a nice over on Ellis here too.

So on the season, linebackers are averaging 23 and a half tackles and assists per game against the Browns tied for the most in the league. And then a very advantageous scorekeeper in Cleveland as it pertains to the road team, they are granting 25.3 assists per game, which is about four, four and a half more than league average. So we get these linebackers piling up. They're pretty generous in just being like, oh, we'll give the linebacker, you know, an assist on that one. And Ellis, again, just a great spot.

It should probably have been eight and a half juice to the over. So we got seven and a half, um, and minus one 25 still available. Still think it's a play. I just bet it. Love it. Yeah.

I'm riding. I mean, I can't officially, you know, tailor you on that because I don't know a damn thing about tackle props, but, I am a hundred percent in. It's a good one.

It's a good look. Feel good about it. Even if, again, even if we have 45 plays in that game, um, Ellis is going to be on the field for every one of them. All right,

Connor, back to you for number three, reminder to, if you're hanging out with us, it looks like a bunch of you are jumping the chat. Let us know if you have any questions for week 16, and we will try to get to some at the end of the show. Yeah,

I'm going to go with an over here. I like Gus Edwards over 35 and a half rushing yards. We took it last week. I'm going back to it again. You know, racked up. He had 55 rushing yards under seven carries despite being in a negative game script. And the big key here was Justice Hill

saw a much larger snap share because they were playing for mine. I mean, Tyler Hundley and the Ravens had to throw the ball 30 times, which I think was obviously suboptimal there, but they ended up losing the game 13 to three. Now near touchdown favorites at home. It's a Falcons team, 26 and run DVO and EPA wins 15 miles an hour, cold temperatures. I think that they try and skew run heavy here. So I like this over for Gus because I see him getting around 10 carries 35 and a half rushing yards against with 10 carries against, you know, a bad run defense for me as a no brainer. I think you can bet both him and Dobbins over because I think the, you know, Ravens have a ton of success on the ground, but, uh, I did not want to have too much in one situation there. He was out carried by Dobbins a good bit more last week, but I still think that,

you know, when all things are even considered, like they want both guys to be heavily involved. Uh, and so we've seen that over the past, like, I guess, I don't know, two years at this point. Um, and I think last week was a little bit of a fluke with Dobbins getting 13 carries to his seven. So I see both seeing maybe 10 to 12 from Gus and 15 to 17 from Dobbins. Look at Pat. Do you have any leans on the Ravens backfield? I mean, obviously, I prefer Dobbins,

but his number is higher. I have Gus projected eight carries for 45 yards, so I'm on board. So mine, I'm going back to that carolina game love that game for whatever reason dj moore over 53 and a half receiving yards the lions like the panthers and like the jets are beat up over the middle of the field and what we've been seeing with sam darnold under center for the panthers in those three weeks is DJ Moore playing an increased slot percentage, moving from the outside to the inside to create these easy

passes. And we know his target share with PJ Walker and Sam Darnold has just spiked so far this season. He's basically like their only good player at this point. So get him the ball as often as possible. And he even just sneaks down field a lot of the time too, and just standing there wide open. And I think the Lions defense has improved, but I don't think it's good by any means. So this just seems like a really

low barrier for someone who's probably going to garner 35 to 45% of his team's market share as an underdog at home. It seems like a fantastic spot. I like it quite a bit. Actually, it's on my list. Actually, the way I was going to go was his reception number just before we got on here i think opened at four and a half at plus money um which i i like quite a bit too because i think it uh you know even if he doesn't yeah on draft kings plus 130 over four and a half receptions so i like both those plays um as you mentioned for all the reasons you said just slot receivers against the lions there cars is not typically a play that you make but any dj more thoughts did talk about sam darnold a little bit like he's been not good and not like from a

fantasy perspective but like he hasn't turned the ball over his completion percentage over expectation is like positive seven percent in his three starts. Like he's been accurate, taking care of the ball, not fumbling, not turning it over. And DJ Moore has been his guy. Yeah. I mean, I think it's, I definitely think it's a solid look. Um, you know, I don't have any reason to dispute it. It's just not something I've normally played. Uh, you know, and I hate tying myself to these garbage quarterbacks. I know he's been playing better, but you know, this is Matt Palak's pissed. You a big Sam Darnold guy?

I didn't know this about you. No, actually, he is the subject of my favorite Reddit thread, but that's about it. I missed that one. Give me the elevator version. No, it is r slash the underscore Darnold. And you can just go on it and you can see. See for yourself.

This looks fun. He's not the Darnold. He's the Darnold. And you can just go on it and you can see. See for yourself. This looks fun. We got a... He's not the Darnold. He's the Darnold. Big difference. They had to stop the steal last week. If you only counted Carolina's points, he won in a landslide. Oh, no. I'm definitely going to have to check this out. It's going to be fun. Oh, that's great. That's awesome.

And then we also got someone, one of our listeners, DJ Moore, head-to-head minus 20 and a half receiving yards versus DJ Chark, who you like under, Pat. Woo! I love that. Yeah, that's a great bet. Where's that at? Looks like, well, they have some of those at DraftKings,

so I would assume it's there. I don't really see those other places, but appreciate the input there. That's a great look, I think. All right. third one for me uh this one is moved let me make sure i get the best number that is out there it is moved against where i played it um davante adams is criminally mispriced um over five and a half receptions for davante adams it's available on rivers it's available on points bets um it has moved to a juiced four and a half on caesar's draft kings

and mgm which is just wild to me i think it's an overreaction we're um we're getting a discount obviously two bad performances two not great performances um in tough matchups last week against new england they went out of their way um they double teamed him uh was reading pat crane's work this morning um like double the rates that he had seen in any other game this season just kind of bracket coverage a ton he still saw nine targets in there but again just caught four of them for a 44 catch rate significantly lower than his season mark of 61%. The week before, really good starts against the Rams and Jalen Ramsey. That is actually the only time this season that Jalen Ramsey

has truly shadowed an opposing wide receiver. So he, I think he had four, like 71 yards and almost all of it in the first half. But again, just his season mark, 61% catch rate, eight targets per game, even in the bad games, he'd been averaging 13.4 before. I'm not really worried. We saw a part-time work for both Darren Waller

and Hunter Renfro. I think Waller sees an increase here, but like these are not, he's playing the Steelers. They have struggled to stop all receivers this season. We don't have really any weather concerns. It's going to be cold at night in Pittsburgh on Saturday, but not any real wind issues here. Five and a half receptions for Devontae Adams at plus money is, I think, a fantastic look. I think it's just an overreaction to two bad matchups. We just need him to basically do his season average in terms of catch rates and targets,

and he gets there. I think this is a better than average matchup. So, Pat, what are your thoughts on Adams? I mean, that sounds – Devontae to get six catches in a game at plus money, just blindly bet it, and I think you're up a lot of money. Yeah. That was kind of where I was stunned. And now I'm surprised I bet it at plus 100. Saw it move to like plus 115, and I was like, what in the world are we doing?

It's moved so much. It's taken enough that DraftKings moved it off to five and a half. And now it's a juice four and a half. Connor, any thoughts? Yeah, that's crazy. I mean, this is the lowest receiving and reception line that I think we've seen for Devonta Adams in what, like five years? Like, I mean, since he was like, I mean, didn't break out the Packers.

Like, I don't know. I mean, this is like literally the lowest line that I've ever seen for him. So, um, I wasn't initially interested. Uh, but I mean, at this point,

like, I think this is a good look five and a half plus one 25 at fan duel on the over. I mean, is there any way that we see even like a four and a half at like one 50 or like, you know, like if it keeps moving down there,

like I'll lay the juice. I don't, I hate laying juice on overs. I think this is a good, could be an awesome look. Yeah, I agree. Yeah. Also weather concerns. not does not do not matter in this game like the wind's gonna be like 12 miles per hour it doesn't mean shit it'll be cold not that cold you know they'll

be fine and it's minus 165 as the juice on the over four and a half at draft kings yeah that's a lot but i mean it's five catches. Like it would, I wouldn't so much rather just pay, you know, I get the five and a half, uh, and, and get plus money on that,

um, at a different book. So yeah. Well, and then again, maybe it takes a little bit of action here. I would jump into it. If you see,

you know, if you're listening later and you see that move back, I just think it's a, I think it's a bad number and overreaction to two tough matchups. So, all right, Connor, bring us home with, uh, your last play or any other ones that you're overreaction to two tough matchups. So, all right, Connor, bring us home with your last play

or any other ones that you're considering you want to talk about. Yeah, one that I think both of us like here, as I took Tyler Algier under 57 and a half rushing yards. We took a 56, looks like Fandles floating at 57 and a half. Generally, him and Cordero Patterson have split work. Last week, he obviously crushed. So we're seeing the highest line of the season for Tyler Algier. Um, now matching against the Ravens, uh, six run DVO, a third and explosive rush rate allowed.

Uh, I just think this is a pretty good opportunity here to kind of like, you know, Zig, one other zag, you know, in this spot here where Algier expect to be pretty popular and I get it like, he's going to see a lot of work, but, uh, I also think that the Ravens are able to slow down in Desmond Ritter, who also looked horrible last week. So, you know, like this is another, another one of those spots where it could be a run, run past punt, you know, where they're not able to do a whole lot. And, um, maybe Algiers sees 10 carries, maybe he sees 12 carries, um, with him and Patterson, you know, kind of splitting work there, but for him to get to 60 yards, he has to be efficient.

I think this is kind of like a, uh, you know, a lowered expectation on the matchup perspective. And you could see less work than normal with the Ravens, as I already talked about probably. I mean, I think they're going to, you know, eviscerate the clock, like literally run the ball like 30 times here and just melt the clock. So in this spot, you know, I think the under is a solid look here. Yeah. I jumped in there with you too. I thought we saw just unsustainable efficiency last week.

And yeah, I think we do see some run, run, run punt stuff here in Baltimore. In Baltimore, the best, since they made the Roquan Smith trade, the best run defense, actually by a significant margin on the ground. So EPA, DVOA, basically any meaningful metric. This is the best current iteration rushing defense in the league. So Pat, any thoughts on the Falcons running backs? Yeah, they're not good. It's true.

They were, I mean, they performed adequately a week ago. I would just expect with the way that the Falcons were running their offense earlier this year, that the rushing game would be more effective with the threat of Mariota taking off all the time. It seems like they're not really unleashing everything Ritter could potentially be able to do on the ground. At least they didn't last week. I mean, it's a change this week, but I don't feel like this is the defense you want to try that out against. Yeah, no, I agree.

How about you, Pat? What's the last empty clip here? What's on the list? Well, I almost went with fields over 74 and a half rushing yards because that has like a 90 win rate this year but i don't know it's a very high number i'm gonna feel stupid i'll just play he's my favorite quarterback on draft king so i'll just limit it today we were talking about that one on our uh other show this week too about how like the narrative around them wanting to push i guess in the press conferences, both Ibra Floos and Fields has talked about

how close he is to the rushing record. I think it's ridiculous for them to do that, but I also understand like good for that kid, like celebrate, he's been awesome. So apparently they want to go for that. At least they're like, it's the elephant in the room and they're talking about it. So it's definitely over or nothing

if you're looking at the Fields market. Or, I mean, it's over or nothing anyway, because're looking at the field market or the, I mean, it's over or nothing anyway, because either he hits an over, he like gets hurt. It's true. He's a, he's awesome to watch.

I am going to continue with my like low threshold slot receiver type things. This one scares me a little bit, but all of my numbers point to it. Matchup numbers, simulation numbers, Curtis Samuel over 29 and a half receiving yards against the niners again two great corners on the outside for the niners a bit weaker towards the interior have to

get the ball out quickly who's standing there wide open seven yards down the field it's curtis samuel yeah i thought we might see this here and mentioned uh maybe a little bit of pro commanders thoughts here and and that's uh samuel could be involved yeah low a dot stuff that's pretty low thresholds for him to get over connor any uh please do not tell the government about my pro commie thoughts this week uh any uh samuel thoughts off the top of your head connor no they posted a rushing yard prop for him again at like 13 or something like that which i thought was a stay away would you have seven and a half a couple of weeks ago? Yeah. I was just melting. He got there at the very end. Oh yeah. Very,

very ends. Yeah. He, the, I was, well, we were watching together and he had like a nine yard run and they called it back for holding.

And I was just going nuts. Cause I thought he got it. And then he came back. So I was like, Oh, it's going to lose. And then they went to overtime and he hit on like literally in overtime. So I got super lucky there.

Ran pure. But yeah, I think the Samuel look here, the receiving is, is good. It was strange. I strange i was like usage just like died mid-season basically uh and now like at least in the passing game and now hopefully they kind of revitalize it here because it is a pretty solid matchup he was a once guy as opposed to a high yeah because all the all of the easy receptions that he was getting earlier on in the season, and that's really before, I mean, Dotson was more of a factor in the red zone, but he wasn't commanding as much of an overall share of the passing

attempts as we saw, but Wentz would dump it off to Samuel where Heineke just runs those. Yeah, that's a good call point. Yeah. Not like that. Any other stuff that you're waiting on, Pat, that you want to? It's really just Marquis Goodwin. Like I took a look at Isaiah Hodgins over 36 and a half receiving yards in that game.

Pacheco over 69 and a half. I think they're just going to run all over Seattle. Latavius, his over. But those were two wishy-washy for me. They were like 56th percentile plays. And it was something I have rated at like 65% or better. I'm not betting it yep get it all right um i have a tackle to finish and i'll give you some other tackles

that i'm going to be um looking for here um denzel perryman's not out yet linebacker for the raiders um this game and i think he's going to be hung at seven and a half would be my guess and if the juice is reasonable i would take the over the games the games in Pittsburgh, which is the best place in the league for assists. Steeler home games, averaging 52 assists per game, which leads the league comfortably. And they're equally split. They're like,

they're not like new England, for example, which we'll get to in a moment gives a lot of assists to the Patriots. And it is very, very stingy to the visiting team. The Steelers are, yes, not surprising at all. Although I made the case the other day, we were talking about this, you would think maybe from like a negotiation standpoint, they would do it the other way.

So they could be like, well, you only had 60 tackles because they actually want to like help contract negotiations, but instead they stuffed their own guys' pockets there. My backers averaging 23.3 tackles and assists per game against the Steelers, which is tied for the second most in the league. And they've actually still, regardless of who's been a quarterback, been run first, even against terrible defenses. So I think Perryman is a really good look if he's at 7.5. I have an under that I'm waiting for if they post Michael Walker, who's a linebacker for the Falcons. He even last week was at eight and a half and he basically lost his job.

He's playing like 35, 40% of the snaps. So even if they post him at like six and a half, cause he's been like regularly seven and a half, eight and a half every week. Troy Anderson, second round pick from Wyoming is basically replaced him as the number two there. So I'm hoping they just kind of continue to post Walker blindly like they have been. Under will be a nice little look there. And then my other one that I'm going to play that just came out just before we started is Jawan Bentley, New England linebacker. This is out there at seven and a half.

It was plus money. It's still minus 105, I think, on DraftKings. He is the only New England linebacker that is even really close to an every down roll, like 85, 90% snap share. And as I mentioned, only Atlanta gives out more assist to the home team than the Patriots do. But we've actually had Bentley back-to-back weeks on the road get 10 tackles. So nine or more in three of the past four home games. It's a great matchup against Cincinnati due to their play volume,

due to their pace of play. They've actually, even though they are massively pass heavy, they still face the sixth highest rate of linebacker tackles on the season. So not all that stuff is like deep down the field. They still will run because they just end up having a lot of plays. And I think they have success in this game against New England's defense, who I don't think is nearly as good as any advanced metric will tell you. So Juwan Bentley over seven and a half is a great look still out there.

And yeah, not, not the best of the number, but still good. It's at a minus one to five plus one 10 at bet. Three, six, five. Love it. You need, you need three, six, five noon. And I know you can ladder your tackle props. Cade Nellis ladders. I mean, I'm all in on this, but Caden Ellis guy,

by the way. Yeah. And we need three, six, five. Uh, I need a, a New Jersey or a Canadian proxy for the,

uh, for the ladders. Cause especially these, we, we had last week, uh, Ray Sean Jenkins was four and a half. He had nine at the half.

He finished with 18 tackles. Um, we have some subscribers in discord. What's the, what's the most you think Ellis can guide the highest you can play him? What do you think the chance of him getting over 10 tack 10 or more tackles are? He's got three games a season in the role.

He's had 13, 12 and eight. So plus two 40 is pretty good for 10. Yeah. The only concern would be play volume in that game. But again, even if they run 45 plays, which is insanely low, 40 is pretty good for 10 yeah the only concern would be play volume in that game but again even if they run 45 plays which is insanely low they're wrong they're going to be like massively run heavy right um and again the advantageous scorekeeper stuff so there's there's a lot of like outs

baked into even a low projected play volume for ellis yeah i need 365 like that love it i i have one that i want to uh talk with you guys i was briefly discussing when doing it before so derrick henry right now you mentioned that there are multiple guys who could threaten for 200 rushing yards in this spot um i know this is like the most freezing take in the industry right now i'm a little worried about titans the titans offensive line i mean they're trotting out bums like do we do you guys even know any of these guys like i mean they're on backups for all of them which may not even matter but like i think starting uh willis mitigates that a bit i agree with that okay that'd be my take

like they were like they made the bears look pass heavy in the Willis starts this year. Like negative 40% pass rate over expectation. Like just insane. Like 11 attempts in one game that he played the entire game. Like it just is a wild, wild scene. Again, rushing quarterbacks too obviously help bolster because you have to account for them a little bit. So I'm with Pat. They won't even release Derrick Henry rushing attempt props.

No. What would you set that at? If they said it was 25.5, would you take the over or the under? Over, probably. I was thinking like 26.5, so I'm like 27.5, honestly. That's so high. I think he gets to 30. Yeah.

I was sweating out a Derrick Henryry rushing attempt under last week and it got there uh by the hook but my i mean it was the least fun sweat i'm certainly not taking the under at 109 and a half rushing yards but what about malik willis 125 and a half passing yards i mean that uh feels high feels high i mean but the texans they do suck so that's the issue but like how is this gonna work it'd have to be like a screen. He had the, what screen to Chig. That was like a 60 yard touchdown and he still didn't even get there. Like, you know,

or whatever it was. Well, I mean, they will three times in this game, play action area. That that's, they did have the Kansas city on the very first drive. It was like,

Oh, here we go. And Willis's arm is giant for sure. And they didn't have, I mean, we, Pat knows go. And Willis' arm is giant. For sure. And they didn't have, I mean, Pat knows Trelenberg sucks. They didn't have Trelenberg in any of the earlier Willis games. It was just Bobby Trees. So maybe that helps at least take the lid off, if nothing else.

But yeah, I mean, Connor, your take of the offensive line is terrible, is spot on. But I don't know that it matters, and I kind of agree with Pat. I think the willis thing kind of helps alleviate that that trail and burke's take is not looking good for me there's no one else there though you know so we'll see i mean if he's going to be tied to malik willis for the next year or two uh you might be correct uh just took the wrong route to get there what about like a malik willis completions under like a past attempt under i mean what's gonna be like 12 completions 10 completions like i mean it's gonna be unbelievably low they probably won't even set one to be honest i mean i all i did was

just i i was gonna bet tennessee at minus five and then they were minus three so i was like perfect i mean malik willis already beat the texans by seven earlier this year in houston i, I don't get why, because Houston played, what, two competitive games the past two weeks? That's great for them and everything. The Titans are just going to run 90 times and beat them. Yeah, I mean, that is by far the worst rush defense in the league. They have, you don't hear a lot of, we bet a lot of tackle safeties or safety tackles for the Texans. We don't touch their linebackers because the safeties get so many opportunities because the linebackers are terrible.

So that's why we jam Jalen Petrie and Jonathan Owens, because they get a lot of chances every week. No one stops anyone in front of them. So we'll probably look at Petrie again, because he'll have a lot of opportunities this week. But yeah, it's, I don't know what the too high number is. I wish the books would have like tested it because the one Oh five or one Oh six is still probably too low. Um, they gotta be hoping for an injury to, to get even on that one. Cause I think the public's

going to hammer to Eric Henry over the next couple of, uh, 48 hours, 24 hours or whatever. So, all right. Working in an hour, we'll look to, to uh get some thoughts from some folks here in the chat let's see thanks for starring these i don't know if that's uh you sal or connor but appreciate that brian wants to talk about remandre stevenson um over four i'm guessing maybe that's receptions uh plus 130 on draft kings uh any thoughts on that it sounds about right lean over probably but i mean i i don't know this game is tough because i think that with how cold it is like that could you know these teams particularly with like zach taylor just being such a boomer and then uh you know uh bill belichick or matt patricia whoever's running

the show in new england just being like, it's cold. We're running the ball, even though the bangles have a good run defense, Patriots have been relatively good against other opposing running backs. Like we could just see like a, like a 10, seven game. But if the bangles pass,

I mean, it is, they're going to, you know, obliterate the past secondary, I think. So I don't know. I go back and forth on that game.

I think that as it relates to Ramondre, like if we see the Patriots throw or when we see them throw, I think that Ramondre will probably see a lot of work. But like you said, four is probably about right. Yeah, I mean, plus money helps too with this price. But yeah, I mean, interesting to see if the minimal workload, not minimal, but he got a lot of touches last week. So they obviously felt okay about him being in there.

But definitely a lower snap rate than we've seen as of late um so i like the plus money it'd probably be a lean over but not a official play for me um let's see next our guy uh cool hxxs he's in our discord wants to know how to approach the tasem hill play um bet anytime touchdown, rushing the receiver with total yards. Do we still like it now that it's moved? Again, we pushed out 35 and a half. Let me see where it looks like it's... I have a... Go for it.

I was going to say, I have a fun one that I tried to play on DraftKings that I got limited to $1.20, so I can't give this out officially. But for anyone who is not limited at DraftKings, him to score a touchdown and have 55 rushing yards is like plus 800 or something like that so you know you could certainly do worse uh if they use him at all anymore like i think he could easily just annihilate

that so you know if you want to put more than you get more than a dollar i think it's worth it uh just for fun i saw that also on points bet because when we pushed the PointsBet play, or the DraftKings play at 35.5, a subscriber notified us that PointsBet had it at 25.5. So I went ahead and ensured that my PointsBet account is not going to be usable moving forward. Again, I will give them some golf business. So that usually, I think, helps soften account limits at times. You bet outright golf winners at places they tend to not limit you so much uh on some other stuff that i've found um yeah i'd take some what still 37 and a half out there i just i don't know i don't know what like

what what's your blocking point connor like where you would kind of stop and hesitate um i i don't know i would kind of want to see a couple more reports we'll probably get like some you know some other like national reporters kind of tra to see a couple more reports. We'll probably get like some, you know, some other like national reporters kind of trailing on like, Oh yeah, we're actually going to see half the game of taste. But I think that's probably we're going to see regardless. So I don't know,

like 42 is where it's at a fan duel. Now I think it's still a good look. Yeah. It's 40 and a half at some places now. Yeah. I think it's still solid to be honest. I thought that's about right. Like you're looking at, we're probably looking at like he had seven carries last week.

We're probably like 10 to 12 in this spot. So, I mean, 40 yards is nothing on 10 carries against Cleveland. Yeah. I'm still good with it. Uh, IG.

Thanks for the love. Love this damn prop show. My favorite on YouTube. Thank you. We appreciate that. Uh, tell your friends props are fun. You can do it in your communal sense.

You're not competing. It's nothing better than winning bets together. Thanks for sharing. Let's see what else we got here. Lucas, what do you guys think about Darius Slayton? Hung at 51.5 receiving yards. Over 20.5

longest reception. Pat had it three weeks ago. We hung him last week at 45 and a half he did not get there he must have tripped over himself um any thoughts on going back again he's in the dome uh against minnesota bad pass defense uh pat any thoughts on uh going back to well you mentioned hodgins so you might be on that passing game a little bit i am actually especially if this is catch-up mode slayton's a guy I would play ladders on this week on the Giants. Either he gets there or he doesn't like.

And when he gets there, it's usually not by a yard. It's by 40 yards. So I would try to look at like some sort of alt spread to cover your ass a little bit. Like if you want to get straight up, I like the over. I have that rated as a good play. But if you want to play, let me try to find it here. That is where is that stupid game? Giants.

The ladder's on him right now to look it up. So much easier to do on my phone. Who would have thought? Receiving yards. Receiving yards. Milestones. There we are. Where are we at?

Darius Slayton? Nah, over 75 yards is only plus 230. So they think it's going to happen. Yeah. Because I remember you mentioning it last week too. So now he's done, I think, like 59 and a half or 59 in six of the past eight weeks. Tough spot. The only time he missed it against the Eagles, he missed it last week against the Commanders.

But most of them were not even right right around 60 they were like mid 80s and 70 so to pat's point he had like when he goes over he is over comfortably often yeah like a so i mean that was two good defenses the past two weeks and he had done it previously against washington the ot game at 90 63 86 95 66 like he's usually well over it if he's over it and like when you see his long like outside of last week his long reception was seven yards previous to that 37 55 44 24 54 like it might just take one a couple others real quick um craig's mentioning that tasem 43 and a half on fanduel yeah it's all kind of in that same pocket uh don't mind anyone doing that john wants to know our thoughts on tyler boyd three and a half

receptions um plus money is nice but my like he's the fourth receiving option in that offense when hayden hurst is hayden hurst ruled out he's out okay well so that helps him a little bit but like again it's not it's like a three four percent jump it's still not a play for me i agree not a play yep um kevin wants to know about kamara rushing attempts over i mean they seem to not just want to bang that guy they right they like the david johnson stuff last week was alarming is it that he's not good anymore it might i don't know he's small dude you know like i know that they all have like odometer on carries, but maybe he's just smaller than others because of his size. Maybe he's just...

I thought last week he was a perfect opportunity to crush, and then they're rolling out Dusty David Johnson seven or eight times. He should have had 120 rushing yards. I thought he had 80, just because they're rolling out David Johnson for seven or eight carries. We know know sucks. Uh, Matt asking about James Connor. We touched on it earlier.

Uh, Connor is on the play. Pat likes it as well. Um, I have volume concerns, but I think that their handicap is, is really good. Um, and I think that's a little bit better than even the number that Connor pushed it out at. So, um, guys definitely lean Connor under, uh, it's not an overplay for me. I just, I worry that they won't be able to do anything with the forward pass. Therefore, Connor could get a just absolute shit ton of touches here.

Last one, Domo. Shout out Domo, a subscriber for us. Thoughts on Watson's passing yards. Leaning under, wondering if the better look elsewhere. He's looking for one of those fan or prize picks six legger. Obviously, we know that there are weather concerns to Pat's points. Don't double count. It's baked into the number.

Cause the number is like what? One 50, one 47, one 47. Do you have any thoughts, Connor? I mean, I love QB unders and I can't do this.

This is just too low. I mean like, because they have, they have enough talent, like, you know, Amari Cooper, DPJ or Joku,

they could certainly throw like a two yard pass and like break a tackle or two and run for 40, 50 yards. That's the thing. Wind just slows down big passes. If there's no wind in this game, his number is probably like 215, 210. I think in this spot, it's already accounted for. So yeah, don't double count. Just kind of maybe avoid it.

I got one for you on PrizePix. Andy Dalton, under 135 passing yards i like it oh yeah no problem with the unders there considering he might not be playing that doesn't seem bad yeah and he'll take a snap he'll play enough that you get to count it because yeah he's not going to be benched but he could be uh you know they could do what texans have been doing of late mixing in guys on uh different series and doing like that. Katie, you get the last one. Gabe Davis, under 36.5. I like Gabe.

Yeah, I mean, I get the weather concerns there, but the big playability is a little scary. Connor, any thoughts on Gabe? I mean, you just can't do it because the Bears are horrible. And so, you know, like one play. It's just one play. I would take receptions under. I think that's a fine look,

because I don't think there's going to be a ton of pass flying, but that's something we actually didn't touch on. I think that the Bills here could absolutely annihilate the Bears through the air if they want to, but it just depends on whether they want to or if it's too cold, because it's supposed to be negative 11 degrees, a kickoff, a real feel. So remember the MAAC game last year Buffalo, when it was massively winning in

the Patriots attempted three passes, the bill still threw the ball around in that game. So like the bills have proven that even in really bad scenarios that they're comfortable leaning on uncle Rico's arm, you know, they want to like, put, you get pushed through that winds. That's why they drafted him, right? Like he can play in the bad weather of Buffalo. They threw a bunch last week. I'm not really scared about overreacting to the Buffalo passing game because they've shown in the past that they're willing to continue to chuck it.

Good stuff as always. Pat, where can everyone find your stuff? You say me or Connor? We know where Connor can find. We can find Connor's stuff. I want to know your stuff. Or if I was interrupting you because you had someone else you wanted to share go yeah well you brought up uncle rico he's just having a really nice run on white lotus right now i'm trying to encourage connor to watch he has not watched white lotus he told me i did actually watch i watched the

second season with maggie so i finished season two last night it was solid it was better actually i had more appreciation for it i thought i i thought season one sucked i thought season two was pretty good pat real quick is there any been anything worse than uh mariah's draft um on the challenge it's tough luck tough look tough look change the whole dynamic of that you gotta have some size yeah i know jordan is got that dog in him but like rough rough scene so uh i finally caught up so i wanted to get your reaction to that i've been i was behind a few episodes okay i don't know if we've talked about this but if i gave you right now everyone left on the cast who do you think the youngest person is and how old are they narese could be young um 20 what's the age 26 chauncey is 23 years old wow okay i could see

that i thought he was like 40 yeah because she's older yeah she's like 35 i think oh wow good for chauncey yeah i mean or maybe not he's she's you know She's running up on her prime here. So, yeah. Shots fired. Yeah. Sorry. Mayo Media Network, by the way. Love it. Did you give out all the money from Tambo?

Yeah, we gave out the last thousand bucks today on the Pat Mayo Experience. We did our full DraftKings breakdown for the main slate and the Christmas slate, Tambo and I. So, that's like an hour and a half long going through the different stacks that you can build up christmas day cuss corner 40 a very crusty christmas drops and then monday already recorded ready to go by the time you wake up feinberg mayo golf season preview we're back love it can't wait good stuff as always connor uh props coming from you what else is uh on your docket for the next couple of days before you leave this cold weather and head to Mexico? Yeah, props.

I need to Christmas shop. I have not. I have slacked. We're two days out, and I still am missing presents. Pretty embarrassing, but very on brand. So I'll get that shit done. Get it done well, but just a day out. All right. Tough scene, Connor. You can marry can marry now you gotta tighten that ship up a little bit

yeah i messed up yeah well you're right you got some time at least it's nice day to be outside gallivanting along the city's uh streets of chicago and no one will be there too no no one is last minute shopping no no no no no good yeah and this chicago is generally quiet so it'll be fine yeah you're making me really excited this is gonna be a great next few hours boys so good stuff as always don't forget to check out everything on the mayo media network and again subscribe here to the 444 youtube page again lots of other great content here we'd love for you to share that with your friends so for pat and connor and ryan we'll see you all next week have a good holiday, everyone.