Move The Line - Week 17 NFL Prop Bets

Episode Date: December 30, 2022

Week 17 NFL Prop Bets from Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Week 17 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro6:23 Connor Prop Bet #1 10:51 Pat Prop Bet #1  12:10 Ryan Prop Bet #1 15:11 Connor Prop Bet #2 17:11 Pat Prop Bet #2 19:20 Ryan Prop Bet #223:01 Connor Prop Bet #3 27:31 Pat Prop Bet #332:28 Ryan Prop Bet #336:01 Connor Prop Bet #438:44 Pat Prop Bet #449:04 Ryan Prop Bet #450:35 Tackle Props54:16 Q+A Props1:01:04 Outro Get 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello and welcome to Move the Line Prop Drop Show. I'm Ryan Noonan, back with my friends here to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football. And that is Player props live here 2 p.m eastern every friday keeping the train rolling through the super bowl giving you our favorite player prop looks and taking your questions so if you're hanging out with us now on youtube subscribe before we get started so you know mr show lots of other great content here on the four for four youtube page smash that like button. It goes a long way in helping us out.

And jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite prop look for Week 17 is. Any thoughts on a play you want to get our takes on. I'll try to get to as many as we possibly can here at the end of the show. Joining me here, as always, from Mexico, Connor Allen. How are we doing? Good. Had not started drinking today. A little bit of a slow start this morning. No tequila yet?

No, I mean, it's almost time. I mean, after the show, I should have been fired up a little bit before the show, but I wasn't up for it this morning. I had to dig through these props. There's not a ton out right now, so I really tried hard to find some stuff that I really like. Yeah, we're talking here before we kicked off and went live technically um as far as like our four four subscribers go uh connor and i have pushed out zero plays um we had a few last night went very well uh zero current plays for the weekend right now a few looks we'll talk through with uh the man behind the mayo media network and

the pat mayo experience it It is Pat Mayo. We're also just kind of bemoaning the lack of stuff that we typically like. How are we doing today, Pat? Doing well. I have two that I've played so far. One of them just dropped off the board, but like we were talking about, it's likely to re-pop up here in a minute

because nothing actually affected him from the game outside of the opposing starting quarterback with Mr. Blau, David Blau. He's back. Didn't realize he was stolen football. Did not know that David Blau was the four string quarterback in Arizona either, but here we are.

They've had a rough go of it there in the desert and it's not going to be any easier, but yeah, I imagine those things come back right around where they are. I have another look in that game. I'd love to get your guys' thoughts on too, when we get there. So again,

I want to remind folks still two episodes of move line each week both available here on youtube and in podcast form wherever you consume podcasts this is the prop drop show connor and i are joined by john dagel on wednesday evenings 7 30 uh eastern typically um even a little bit earlier uh at times um mostly because of my schedule but i'll be that's a little bit more game previews, sides, totals, things of that nature. Again, get all of that where you can find the podcast or here on YouTube. Also another unique YouTube channel, 444Bets. Original content there every day, looks on the NBA side, more college hoops, especially as the NFL starts to tune down a

little bit. So subscribe to both those channels. Lots of great content there. And again, even though we are winding down in the regular season, that's more relevant for fantasy. Who cares? We still have six, seven weeks of actual football to bet on here. It's a great time to get a betting subscription at 4 for 4. Gets you access to literally everything on the site if you are still grinding all those other things.

And then all the other sports. Every article, every tool. We're're covering NBA college hoops MMA continue to have more stuff we'll be you know kind of including some of our golf stuff from betzbert's golf a little bit over there too particularly in the discords it's really where you want to get in there that's where Connor and I push all of our picks through wait Connor golf picks? Connor does not have golf picks. No, no, but I will have golf picks and we'll be, I'm excited. Golf starts next week and finally get in there. Connor will bet golf, but you know, the only time Connor touted a golf pick was when he tried to convince me to bet on nasty Nate Lashley to repeats at, in Detroit a couple years ago, I think it was.

So yeah, we don't take Connor's golf picks. Did not go well, Connor. No, no, no, no. So no golf picks there. But again, Discord is where you want to be. Can't make it any cheaper. It is $34 from now until the end of February to get the betting subscription.

Typically, you know, closer to 300 for the full season. Obviously, we're not giving you a full season worth of stuff at this point. It ends in February. But again, you're going to get a lot of value. Hopefully, you just win that back this week. I think we can more than recoup that $34 in this week. So 444.com slash plans for the betting subscription. Still doing DFS stuff as well.

TJ Hernandez, John Daigle still pumping out all that stuff all the way through the super bowl as well so if you're playing single game stuff in the playoffs or that short slate stuff we'll have all that covered for you as well all right kind of let you get started i know no official plays but again we're definitely going to be giving you live lines because we haven't bet any of these uh looks like pat has a few but uh i want to talk through a few with the guys. We'll get some tackles at the end. Again, just before we went live, like five minutes ago, they posted three tackle props from the Browns. That tells you a little bit about how the tackle market goes at times.

There's really no rhyme or reason. They didn't even give you the other side of the game. It's peculiar, but we'll get there when we get there. But, Connor, first play, Week 17. Yeah, they're scared. That's why. They're looking at your record after you started doing projections. And we had the Caden Ellis.

They're shaking in their boots. So good about Caden Ellis. And for some reason, he had played 95% of the snaps all season in that role, 70% of the snaps last week, and he hooked up. We lost by a half on the Caden Ellis play here last week. He's a scrub anyways. Never heard of him. I feel I was watching that because I had bet on that too.

You convinced me on it. I was like, oh no, he's going to get to eighth here. It looked like he had made a tackle they didn't give him credit for on the final drive. You're in it. This is what happens. Once you get in these streets, Pat, it becomes a different viewing experience. You're like, update,

refreshing the screen. He was in on that play. There's an assist there. I'm watching the game. I'm pretty sure that's 55. I think, I think this is working for us. I think this happened. It's like, no,

it didn't happen. No, it did not happen. So yeah, we were, we were trending. Well, should've got there,

but I don't know why they decided to give him part-time work, but hey, here we are. It's week 17. We've got to worry about this on the defensive side too, with these guys, maybe playing a little bit less or, you know,

trying to be careful with that as well as we get in here in the next couple of weeks. But Connor, start us off. Yeah, and I do want to mention that we're doing something a little different this week. Normally, I'll release kind of simultaneously a couple props in the Discord at the same time as we're doing this. I have not released anything yet. So these are live.

These will be posted in the Discord after the show. But I wanted to give all the live listeners here a chance at it first. So my first one, I'm going to go Devin Singletary under 47 and a half rushing yards. I know he's been crushing as of late, but now he matched up against the Bengals. Since DJ Reed returned full-time in Week 12, Bengals' fourth-in-run defense EPA, fourth-in-expulsive run rate allowed. They've really only had one blip in those games when they played the Chiefs, but they held Ramondre to 38 yards on 13 carries, Rashad White to 38 yards on 11 carries, Fournette to 44 on 10,

Nick Chubb to 34 yards on 14 carries, and Derrick Henry to 38 yards on 17 carries. I also think there's, like, risk of, you know, James Cook continuing to split work, and they're going to not be as efficient. And then I think there's also a chance where the Bengals come out here and, you know, make the Bills not be in constant positive game script here. So I think that in this spot, you know, you're probably going to see less volume than normal. There's a chance where James Cook still gets his and probably not that efficient. So I thought 47 and a half was just a little bit too high.

I think it should be closer to like 40. Yeah, I can get behind that. Pat, any initial thoughts? Would you have Singletary out? Nah, I have Singletary. I have to go run my numbers. But I mean, logically, I think that makes a ton of sense. It's sort of like those Eagles passing props that we were smashing the first 10 weeks of the year.

Yeah, I get a DJ reader. A questionable, I think. So I'm not quite sure what to make of that. We also have an extra day of practice reports for them. And I think that's probably a big piece of the handicap. But we'll have to watch and wait and see because i haven't heard that he is not playing i'm surprised to see that he was questionable but um i kind of that kind of ties into one that i have and i would love to know that dj reader is in or out before i make it too because i think it definitely uh

impacts the the way that the bills kind of approach this game so where where where the hell is this guy at? Not even, oh, there he is. Devin Singletary, 42 rushing yards. That's what I'm seeing.

That's me. I don't see any Brian Robinson rushing props right now, but I know the prize picks was hanging a 65 and a half on them. That if that's the real number, I love that over with into, I mean, whether Antonio Gibson was going to be in or out, he is officially out as of now.

I still would have loved that over because he had 15 carries against the 49ers in the first half last week and they were not sniffing a lead in that game. No, that was, that's a great look on the list. I'm sure Connor as well. Cause we are definitely, you know, Connor has got these like, you know, pie in the sky dreams of Brian Robinson cashing our Offensive Rookie of the Year tickets here with, you know, six tutties in 200 yards per game here to end the season. It's happening.

I mean, it's like literally – I can already see it in the headlights now. Brian Robinson, 200 yards and six touchdowns in the next two games. All the media is, like, buzzing, you know, just like, man, this guy got shot in preseason, came back and he's just a beast on the road. Washington makes the playoffs maybe. On the back of Brian Robinson, I mean, it's a lock. It's going to happen. You know, I mean, I've never seen a better lock at this point in the career. He only needs 200 yards. Daniel's telling us 65 and a half, still up on prize picks right now, if you are playing over there because they have such arbitrary rules around what qualifies for it you just made the

case for brian robinson comeback player of the year as well can you come back in your rookie season um i think maybe you can't i don't know that's why comeback player of the year is the most ridiculous award because some guys just come back from sucking right like you just come back from being terrible for multiple years and i don't know it's a it's a really weird award uh pat is that uh b-rob look your first official play or did you have another one i mean if that number is available because obviously you have to parlay it with something at prize picks if you want if that's available in the sports book that would be a most definite over. Even when I had Antonio Gibson in, I had him projected at 82 rushing in this game. So without Antonio Gibson, I assume they're not going to be like,

you know who we need to use more of? Jonathan Williams. Hopefully that doesn't come to that. So, you know, 20 plus carries against Cleveland Brown. Sounds pretty good for me. I know my official play is going to be over six and a half more times that Connor's internet cuts out out is it brutal right now what do we got we're running on the resort wi-fi right now so it's a little you know it's it's been

better but it's you know all right let me see what we got no i i'm actually going to take drake london over 58 and a half receiving yards based on what we've seen from him with ritter under center against a pretty soft defense, one that can attack you, but still pretty soft on the back end. And he's getting like over 40% of his team's targets. I mean, he's crushed this number of the past two weeks with Ritter. I don't think the matchup is all that difficult to begin with. So just volume wise,

it feels like Drake London needs to get over this number as long as he plays the entire game. Yeah. In the soft spot i mean this this arizona defense is pretty terrible on uh you know against the pass against the run and when you're seeing like even a low volume seeing like 40 42 of the target share uh pretty easy for you to get there so yeah i like the i like the drake london look as well i think it opened at 52 and a half and got jammed up immediately came off the board and then came back up at 58 and a half which i

still think is is a viable play too um pat do you have a what would you play brian robertson up to um say you know the sports books open up open them up at a different number than 65 and a half do you have like an up to number yeah i have an up to 72 and a half as a very strong over 65 percent winner play yeah i would put him in that spot too i still think it's a good look it's a good matchup all right uh i'm gonna stay in the same game with connor to start because i find the josh allen passing yard number to be pretty interesting and it's actually interesting for a couple of reasons i think it just is he's been underperforming as of late in comparison to early in the season where they had a massive pass rate over expectation um they've definitely been skewing more balanced you can make the case

that it's been matchup related that it's been elbow related i think you can make the case the last couple weeks that it's been weather related even right like they didn't really need to push in chicago the wind was an issue it was really cold We're going to have a game where to Connor's point, I think the bangles push them to a different degree than they've been pushed as of late. And I think you're just going to see more attempts here. Um, and I want to get this correct because it's all over the place. Let me find passing yards, pretty large discrepancy from book to book, depending on what you're looking at here. Let me see. Where am I at?

Yeah, Josh Allen is out there. It's moving a little bit. So it looks like the lowest now is up to 247.5. That's on DraftKings. There are 255.5s out there, 253s. Actually, Bett Rivers still has a 242.5 on Josh Allen. I like the over on his passing yards here i think he is going to be forced to drop back like i said a little bit more obviously

feel better knowing that dj reader is in for cincinnati knowing that they probably are going to have a little bit more difficulty on the ground i think this is just kind of a get right spot for stefan diggs who struggled a little bit uh just again the nature of this game in prime time i think both these quarterbacks are going to be you know we're going to have four quarters there's no like concern about these teams and their motivation here both teams really need to to get seating number one seat up for for grabs for both teams so over 242 and a half live now on allen on rivers i think is a play for me yeah i admit 255 and a half so So that number, when you said the different sites

actually makes a ton of sense. That's exactly on the number for my projection. Connor, any initial thoughts on Allen? It kind of pairs well with your singletary play. Yeah, no, I think that we'll, I think it'll get there probably. It'll probably be like high 240s, maybe low 250s because I mean, especially if this game goes back and forth,

I mean, ladders are in play for sure. I think this game, we talked about it in our last show, but it was just a really wide range of outcomes where I think we were kind of unsure how these teams settle in and how they figure each other out, but we could see five touchdowns fourth quarter, and I don't think anyone would be surprised because both of these teams are just so explosive

offensively. They just had their little blips here and there, especially. I do think this number is a little bit too low like you know normally if you were to project this number out and not like hadn't watched the past few weeks i guess you know i would have probably guessed they would be close to like 265 270 to be honest yeah i agree so in 240s uh not even playable at draft kings uh yeah draft kings caesars caesars is juiced on 247.5, so it looks like they're taking some action on the over, even at the highest number on the board. So, yeah, that'll be a play for me.

Back to you, Connor, number two. Yeah, my second one is a fun one, one that one of our guys in the chat here, Brian Sullivan, brought up. Jamal Williams over 48.5 rushing yards. I know he struggled as of late, so if you know, if you're looking at the last few games, I think they deserve a little bit of context. Blowout loss to the Panthers. And really underwhelming, kind of like middling matchups against the Vikings,

who were 16th to run DBOA. Jets were eighth. Jags were 12th. But now he gets the Bears, 29th to run DBOA on the season, 31st in explosive run rate allowed after Quinn and Roquan were traded. On top of this, Lions six-point favorites still have playoff hopes. And beyond that even, you know, there was – we did some research on, like, you know, incentives.

I mean, I don't think it's necessarily in play this week, but he's 150 away, 150 yards away from an incentive. The team loves Jamal. The coaching staff loves Jamal. So I don't necessarily think that that's a massive factor here, but, like, you know, if they're up by 14 points, I can very well see it being a factor if they're just continuing to feed him the ball in a fantastic matchup here. So for me, 50 yards on a guy that has continued out carry DeAndre Swift

the past few weeks and could see, you know, 15 plus 15 ish carries, I think in that range, like, you know, has a good amount of upside and should easily get over this number. Yeah. We're back in the dome. So we can expect a little bit more of what we've seen early in the season. Obviously, a great matchup. The Bears are giving it up all over the place. The defense has been by far the worst in the league since the trades, basically Roquan Smith, Robert Quinn. Any thoughts there, Pat, on the Lions' backfield? Yeah, I like Jamal Williams here.

I would more or less want to play his anytime touchdown number rather than any sort of yardage props and at 365 right now it's minus 120 for an anytime touchdown for jamal williams so i like that a lot he's in position to lead the league in in uh touchdowns for the season which is a wild thing i know that's his mo but like i something like this you feel like it's just going to tail off as the season goes along he benefited from from, you know, Henry sitting and, you know, Chubb has kind of stalled a little bit, but yeah,

they love him around the goal line. Well, he's no different than what Zeke is to be perfectly honest. That's fair. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm going to go to Seahawks jets for mine. I've previously discussed how,

you know, Ken Walker could see 85 carries in this game and everyone on the seahawks passing game except for like noah fant who is actually kind of banged up but not seriously banged up mark tower lock has a broken finger he might play pretty sure that marquis goodwin broke his wrist last week diving for a pass and they tried to bring him back in later in the game they threw it to him and he couldn't close his hand on the ball dk got banged up in that game he's probably gonna get a ton of sauce Gardner here. So why don't we just put this all together and just say,

Gino Smith under 236 and a half passing yards. That's a big number. That is a big number. That is where are we looking there? Yeah. It's two 36. There's actually some, there's a two 41 and a half out there at MGM.

But what am I missing here? Yeah. That seems, that seems too high. You make a great case. Unless DK goes for 180. I don't know where these yards come from. So it's a horrible matchup,

right? The jets, especially in the perimeter, which is really kind of the strength of this matchup for the Seahawks or where their offense plays. Well, that's just a really bad matchup for, for the spot color.

Any thoughts there? I kind of like that. Look, no, I was actually thinking about how to fade this as well, because I think like three weeks in a row, I've been successfully fading kind of like perimeter receivers against the jets because it's, I mean, it's just like an awesome spot here. My only concern with fading Metcalf is that he's just, I mean, DK Metcalf, but I do think that's a whole like fading Gino, like you're right. They're probably not going to be able to feed enough to DK, even if he has his one, you know, one or two free plays plus through the slot, like another,

whatever, 180 yards through the slot. Uh, I don't imagine that being the case. So yeah, I think that's a, that under is a good look there for sure. Um, and we could see the jets like run the ball like 35 times here in this spot against the Seattle defense. That's been awful. And Mike Whitesback, who I think will help them move the ball a little bit more successfully than, you know, Zach Wilson was. Yeah. Like I would play if I could find the numbers, I would play over Garrett Wilson. I'd play under Gino and I would play over Noah Fant receiving yards, which I can't assume are a lot. Play those on a like those are a bad correlated same game parlay just waiting to spike those

odds through the roof. I'm going to add another leg to it and love to see what your thoughts are in the same game. I'm going to add another leg to it and love to see what your thoughts are in the same game um tight ends have feasted against the Seahawks all season long and Tyler Conklin is 26 and a half receiving yards um had some good games earlier the season when Mike White was in there and we've seen pretty solid route participation uh even with Zach Wilson for Conklin. You know, anytime you're getting upwards of 65, 70% for a tight end, that's a pretty good spot. And that's basically where he's been.

Let me see. I think he was at 77 last week. Yeah, the Seahawks are 29th on the season in DVOA against the tight end position. I think they were giving up the most fantasy points per game of the season, like a ton of yards. There's some teams like the cardinals for instance that are giving up significantly more receptions um and targets but the yardage against seattle to tight ends has been uh astronomical from like a you know per reception basis so yeah i like the congo play let me see where he's at uh

yeah 73 25 and a half i'm seeing okay yeah i've seen i saw a move i almost went at 26 and a half i saw it jump to 25 jump right back up to 26 yeah i think we're we're right in there yeah 73 participation last week you know targets did right around the same at 17 which is kind of where he's on the season you know not super exciting but pretty low threshold in the spot and the matchup i think is is pretty great so um you can tell me you have to you have to watch out for the secret of the uzma and he might come get you for sure and we saw that a couple weeks ago uh 51 percent route participation for conklin but then i i like what we saw i think that was a wilson game though yeah they the last couple have been wilson games so yeah i think that i think the threshold is low

and we've seen some, like, you know, 50, some tough matchups, too, where he's exceeded this, like 34 yards and some tougher spots with White as the quarterback. So I think they have some success there. You can sell me on Garrett Wilson. You can sell me even on Elijah Moore, who's still kind of running reps and has obviously showed – I know, it's ugly. But with Wilson or with White, it's been significantly better.

Obviously, he and Zach Wilson do not see eye to eye, but Zach Wilson will be in street clothes for this one and probably not throwing to Elijah Moore anytime again in his career. Yeah, we have a comment here. Garrett Wilson up at 65 and a half at an offshore. So I think that that's, I don't know. I was seeing some some 58 and a half some prize picks early in the week and those were looked really nice uh i think that are like low 60s makes a ton of sense like i saw someone say that the last few weeks zach wilson has been an audition for mike white and i just don't think that could have been an even better like more well said because it's just so true like the stark difference of like how well mike white is just able to do the simple things versus zach wilson is just. Yeah. And just the efficiency of the offense is just in such a

different place. So it's a little rich, but I, you know, I don't mind it. That's why I just think Conklin can do it here literally on a reception or two because of what we've seen happen to the, the Seahawks all season long. So the, um, that number's up at 65 and a half is up at about 365 right now too i need 365 i asked santa for christmas for 365 it didn't happen all right uh do they have any plans to come to illinois have you looked at that or no i don't think they do why not yeah no i don't they're just in jersey i think in the states it's so weird yeah strange no they're in vegas too i think or in nevada uh we're halfway through shared two each if you're hanging out with us live in the chats uh let us know any looks that you have for week 17 we'll get to those at the end of the show

back to connor for prop number three yeah i got two more unders to wrap us up on the show here. But my first one, Nick Foles, I'm going to go under 209 and a half passing yards. I mean, he just looked so unbelievably bad last week. And now, you know, draws a Giants team that's susceptible to the run. I know we got in trouble fading the Giants last week. You know, Kirk Cousins ended up busting our under on the final drive if the Giants just had – if the Vikings had just stopped the Giants, like, you know, on the last drive and they scored eight points in the final drive if the Vikings had just stopped the Giants on the last drive and they scored eight points in the final three minutes.

Her cousin's under would have cashed. But now we're getting a spot here where I think there's multiple layers to this because we saw Nick Foles come in against the Blitz. He went three for six for 24 yards, threw an interception, and had two sacks. Now draws the Giants, who blitzed the highest rate in the league, play a ton of man coverage against a team in the Colts that just generally the receivers aren't very good at separating. So I think there's a bunch of players there where, you know,

Alec Pierce has struggled to separate. I mean, Michael Pittman can separate. And then Paris Campbell has been all over the place. So looking at a team that they'll probably want to run. And then if they need to throw, they're probably not going to have too much success here. I also think the coaching mismatches is massive here. So like you can kind of get around some of that stuff if you have a great

coach who can scheme around, you know, blitz-heavy teams. I think we saw a little bit Kevin O'Connell do as well. But, I mean, this is Parks Frazier versus Week Martindale we're talking about. Like, Parks Frazier is a nobody. Like, he's not going to be scheming around, you know, blitz-heavy, man-heavy schemes here. He's just going to throw, you know, foals out there and make them look horrible. So, you know, I really think this is a good spot here, 209 yards.

Seemed like a lot, even against the defense that on paper, their metrics are not good. I just think this spot here, generally, it'll be tough for them to move the ball through the air. Yeah. Padney leans there.

Not really. It's a low threshold, but man, they, they, it was rough last week with foals. They, I kind of agree with you on the separation piece. Like it's not necessarily the strength of the Colts receiving core there.

And even like Zach Moss, not really featured at all in the passing game. Doesn't have like break away after the catch stuff anyway, if they happen to get him in where someone like Dion Jackson was in there, we've seen him be able to have a little bit of juice after the catch where you can get some garbage receiving yards there from the backfields uh i had deon jackson over 10 and a half receiving yards on oh no he had nine right on three receptions and one of them was for negative nine yards i laugh because it's painful because we've been there uh oh boy i i think of the – was it ETN, Connor?

The ETN game in Washington where he had like that one carry that – Yeah. It was rough. He got – it was a prop. It was 18 and a half receiving yards. He had like 22 and then caught a pass, fumbled out of bounds six yards, and it was a six-yard loss. He ended up with 18 and did not hit the over on his 18 and a half receiving

yard prop. And it was like the first or second quarter. So think like oh no big deal he's got the rest of the game didn't catch another ball uh yeah we've do you find it odd that he's just a non-facker in the passing game very strange i do for sure yeah i don't know i mean their passing game is pretty good so you can't really fault them sure but why not add the elements like you don't even have to really account for it like they don't even they don't even mess with them he's but like if you go look up his routes run i bet you they're really high like he's always running routes out of the backfield they just never pass it's it is surprising because it was such a huge piece of his makeup coming out and obviously it's not like a

lord's thing these they did it together right i mean it's just it's wild um yeah on the season uh and he's basically been there he's 51 um routes run in the season even the last few weeks he's been right around like high 60s um you know mid 60s high 50s but his target per route run of the season is 13 which is like bad tight end type of route participation. So yeah, it's, it's very, very strange. And they're like bringing Michael Hastie in and throwing to him,

which is the strangest thing too. So, well, I think a lot of the routes and plays that would have been designed for ETN earlier on in the year, actually go to Jamal Agnew. Yeah, that's true.

They use him for a lot of the gadget stuff. Yeah. It's weird. The, the Jamal Agnew and Jamichael Hasty wheel routes, you know, like 30-yard wheel routes that they're catching are just like unreal. It's like, why can't they be into you? Kind of jam it to them whenever you can. All right, Pat, what's the third look?

Okay, this one's not fun. In that indie game, I think the only thing I would probably play from the indie side of the ball is I like Zach Moss over 59 and a half rushing yards based on the way they used him last week even while they were trailing they still ran him which it's easier to do i suppose against the new york giants but i'm going to go to these los angeles chargers almost at san diego justin herbert 284 passing yards under since this defense has actually been good. I mean, I just don't think that there's a big need for Herbert to go back and swing it 55 times at the moment. You could almost correlate this with over Josh Kelly rushing yards.

I think Eckler is a bit banged up. We've seen Josh Kelly get his like four to eight carries a game. He's usually right over 30 yards. There's no number on him out there yet. That would actually be my preference, I think, because I bet you that comes in around like 20 and a half. But those two together, I just, I don't think that there's going to be a need.

I mean, they have nothing to play for. Well, what's the point of this? No, I like that. I mean, they've been so pass heavy, but again, like the other thing the Rams do, they've been playing slow and their games have had significantly fewer snaps than average too.

So you just could get, you could get there on the volume play too, where they just have fewer snaps than average too. So you just could get, you could get there on the volume play too, where they just have fewer plays than normal. And then just some sort of balanced attack. And then you, you know, unless he's breaking multiple big plays, which isn't Keenan Allen's MO.

And if you don't have Austin Eklund in there to break some big ones too, kind of like it. Connor, any thoughts on, on that play? No, it seemed, it did seem high given the matchup and everything. I was looking at the other side of the ball potentially with like a Baker under because, like you said, the Chargers defense has been playing so good.

I just couldn't get myself to pull the trigger because of how good he played last week. Maybe it's recency bias, but, I mean, that Broncos team basically gave up, has basically given up at this point. So I think it's solid. I mean, he's up to 200 passing yards. And like you said here like i really expect the chargers to you know kind of be able to lock them down here probably they probably run the ball a ton with cam acres cam acres properties like in the 70s by the way i mean that's just to me that's wild from where we started in the beginning of the season to now we're getting cam makers 75 rushing yards or

whatever i don't just i don't even think it's that bad of a line it's just that it's there and it's surprising for what it's worth i have baker mayfield projected at 176 passing yards yeah i mean do you think this chargers defense i guess i don't know escalation or however you want to say it uh you know it's like like better like significant do you think it's real or because they've they've for the last three weeks they played like lights up yeah i mean essentially like i i forgot who brought it up but since they got rid of crooked tillery in week seven like they've been top three in like epa against per play like they've been fantastic and they're getting bosa back um if not this week soon i i i saw he was designated to return he's practicing are we sure i know he's playing here but i think he's coming back soon but i think just the

prospects of them moving forward i think is is probably super encouraging to our friend Jeff, who I'm sure is drinking the Kool-Aid pretty. Well, he was very happy until he learned that one Mr. Tim Anderkust has changed his allegiance to the Chargers now that he's given up on the Jets. So this really works two ways. One, now that he's given up on the jets they now have a chance to make the playoffs which would be great for him but if the jets do not make the playoffs he's going to start cheering for the chargers which jeff that's tough that's not fair to jeff it's a bad beat that's why i'm in on like ravens futures yeah how did uh wait why did you give up the jets like there's there's still like in the thick things right like i mean a little bit

i mean mike white's actually decent If he doesn't cheer for them, they have a very good chance of winning. It's, it's, that makes sense how it works. So yeah, like even just to hold on, just hold on one second. Like even to go back a little bit, I know they were giving up a bunch of points, but they've played the Chargers schedule is pretty good.

Like three points against the Colts, 14 against the Titans. It softened up 17 against the allowed against the dolphins. But like they gave up 27 in that stupid game against the Raiders. They gave up 24 to the Cardinals in Kyler Murray's last game. You know, 30 to the chiefs, 22 to the 49ers. Like they've been like pretty good over that stretch. There's some like pretty good offenses they played over that time.

No, they have, they have, they have playmakers for sure. Like I said, I don't know Bo's status now, but man, moving forward, I don't know if they're going to have Derwin James for this one. I think he's still in concussion protocol. He is, but I would doubt that they would rush him back for this spot. Makes you have a pretty decent safety depth behind him, so they probably can give him a week. Yeah, that a tough he blew up ashton dalton that was a great and how does it look for like do you do you know what the tiebreakers are obviously if the chargers

win out and the ravens lose out they would leapfrog the ravens for the five seed but i mean conference records about the same they didn't play did they no they played last year um they didn't i don't think they i i don't know i guess the chargers would get the tie break so i guess they get the five seed that is something to play for that's it sounds pretty valuable right now in the afc All right. Last, or no, number three for me. I'd love to get your thoughts on this one. It's moving a little bit, so it looks like I am in the right spot here.

Latavius Murray under 44 and a half rushing yards. There are 45 and a halves out there that are juiced a little bit, but last week's a little hard to look at the box score because it was so skewed based off of how that game went, just bananas. But we've seen a little bit more and more of Marlon Mack. We saw a decent amount of Chase Edmonds last week even. They're definitely getting involved on passing down,

so it's definitely hurting Latavius Murray's upside if you're playing DFS or anything like that. But he's losing base down work to these guys as well, or at least to Marlon Mack a little bit. So tough spot against the Chiefs, probably negative game scripts. We know that you just can't get hurt from explosive plays from Latavius Murray. So typically when he's getting here, it is on volume, and the volume is just kind of fading away.

Even last week, you know, eight carries for 34 yards. The last time they played the Chiefs, eight for 32. Even in games when, like, the game script is close, he's right around this number. Tough matchup against Baltimore, 17 carries, and he barely topped us at 47 yards. He crushed Arizona. There was no one else active.

Arizona's sweet Latavius won me all that money and now he he's he's on vacation the rest of the year we look at the last eight weeks arizona's 30 31st in uh rush d dvoa they've been terrible against the run buda baker's out like they they're struggling so that's a great matchup so you know you were on the right side there i just think the lat murray stuff has been volume only and the volume is kind of sliding away and then here you know basically two touchdown dogs uh on the road in kansas city just doesn't set up for a great spot for for lat murray so under 44 and a half i think is a pretty good look i agree i haven't projected right around that number but i think your context and given that Chase Edmonds has come back in a negative game script as well, that just bumps him off the field a lot more. Like even when they were losing in games, but it was just him and Marlon Mack, he just ended up out there, you know, 30% more of the time.

Thus that translated into two more carries and you bust one against, you know, if he's not out there to accept a third and 19 draw which could go for 12 yards because the other team doesn't care like those are valuable when it comes down to these thousand percent i mean that's a great call up that because that happens so it's like we don't have a third 19 play in the playbook we just got to get to you know hopefully a better position to punt and that happens all the time like at the end of the day in props, it's not like base down rushing yards. It's, it's cumulative rushing yards and those things happen. So Connor,

any thoughts on a lot, Marie? I was trying to figure out, I thought I saw he was injured, like limited in practice early in the week too. I don't know if those are just rest days or whatnot, but I thought he was a little banked up as well. Okay.

Yeah. So probably not a factor, but still, you know, any rest he needs is probably less snaps he's playing. So, yeah, also Chase Edmonds, big factor, you know, massive L for me this year in betting on Chase Edmonds. But, you know, it's all right. He's come back to win us more money by now fading Latavius Murray and hopefully playing more.

We'll let you down easy on that one. Yeah, sad, sad day. My guy responded to me on Twitter, so I was, like, ready to be his number one fan, and hopefully playing more. We'll let you down easy on that one. Yeah, sad. Sad day. My guy responded to me on Twitter, so I was, like, ready to be his number one fan, and then he just sucks. I mean, like, what are we – I'm, like, the best – one of the best offenses in the league this year. Horrible. Horrible.

That's not great. All right, back to the top corner. Last one. Any other looks that you like? Again, you can kind of, you know, spray us with whatever you got here. For sure. My last one is going to be alvin camara under 62 and a half rushing yards he's seen a ton of work as of late so it's a little bit scary if he gets like 20 carries like he has been but both of those were in massive positive game scripts and great matchups against the falcons and the browns i mean two of like literally the bottom three run defense of the league now draws the eagles who

have been playing awesome run defense of late they haven't allowed a single running back to clear 60 yards in the past five or six games. They allowed less than 40 to Derrick Henry and Saquon, David Montgomery, and both Zeke and Pollard did less than 60 yards as well. I think if Hurts plays, they blow out the Saints. I think even if Hurts does not play, I think that they have a ton of success here. Six and a half point favorites. I was interested in the Dalton under because I think that he's also been horrible, but I'm just more confident that they aren't able to give the volume to Kamara

because of game script, and the matchup is a little bit tougher with Jordan Davis kind of playing a role, and they've just been playing generally better run defense as he's returned. So that's kind of my spin on it, though. But I could be talking to Dalton under, especially with still no weapons besides maybe Olave, who looks like he's probably playing but still i think this spot here you could probably like blanket bets saints unders but just kamara just hasn't been very good this year like it's just been kind of like volume it's taken to get there i told you in our ffpc draft we went

hero rb with the running back that's nobody's hero alvin kamara and this is why we have not had a good season uh in the main event streets. So, yeah, even last week, again, a ton of rushing volume in that game against Cleveland. 20 carries for Kamara. He barely got here. It was a great matchup against a terrible Browns defense. But, again, like Taysom Hill's involved with nine carries.

David Johnson had seven. They gave two to their fullback, David Prentice. Like, they are okay not giving the ball to Alvin Kamara. David Johnson had seven. They gave two to their fullback, David Prentice. They are okay not giving the ball to Alvin Kamara. So 20 carries last week, great volume, but he just hasn't been that dude. So I like it. This is on my list as well. It's a little light, but I think it's probably the right side.

Pat, any thoughts on Kamara? No, not really. I've been pretty anti-Kamara all season long, but the Dalton-unders look especially good. Yeah, not good. That's so bad. How bad is Jameis? I'm a little worried about the Eagles, like the secondary injuries, though.

Any thoughts on that? I mean, that was the only reason I didn't play. It was because they're not like at full strength, and they just got absolutely wrecked by Dallas, who's significantly better offensively. Yeah, I mean, the corners are okay. They have some safety depth issues that is being tested here. But, yeah, I don't hate it. I just think it's been probably a pretty advantageous spot all season long

to just kind of short anything passing game against the – probably anything passing game with Andy Dalton, anything passing against the Eagles has probably been a pretty nice setup. So, yeah, it's been, it's been not great. All right, but what do you got? What's a consideration?

All right. I got it. I got it. I got a few here. So I need you guys to, to land on the one for me. I was looking at both Carolina tight ends. Now that they're playing a lot of 12 personnel,

Tommy trembles at nine and a half receiving yards. He's seeing two to three targets of games. And Sam Darnold took over and that's one catch. he's beat this number no sorry that's ian thomas he has beat that number each of the past two weeks uh into totally different game scripts one where they're absolutely blowing out not needing to pass against the lions he had 18 yards on two catches last week and the week before when they were trying to play a little bit of catch up in a closer game against the steelers, two for 20 on three targets. So essentially, he's just averaging nine yards a target.

So nine and a half, pretty good number. Then you have Ian Thomas, who has beat seven and a half receiving yards in four straight games. And he's averaging two and a half, three targets over that span. Just since Sam Darnold has come in, these guys have been, listen, they're not a major factor. They're playing like 55, 60% of the offensive snaps a piece. So they're both out there more than half the time. If you do think this ends up in a passing situation, I like the over on both of these. I think they're just really low threshold numbers to try to get to. So I like both of those. I don't really have one preference over another, to be perfectly honest with you.

I just probably play both of them in the same game parlay and see how it works. If one hits, hopefully they both hit. But the other one, Donta Foreman from that same game, 61 and a half rushing yards against the Bucs. That seems like a really big number. Do we have Vita Veya info? Okay.

Not as of yet, but this is a split anyway. And if you think, and this is a big ask for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but if they can just get out to a lead in this game, we are not going to see Donta Foreman. Yeah. Yeah, we've seen his and Topps' 48% snap share in over a month. So you really need – he's definitely sharing. They're both kind of getting there.

But again, like you said, they've been winning games and they've been in, you know, even like tightly contested games. The problem is, is we've seen no ceiling offensively from the Bucs all season long. Like it's wild. Like we're waiting for it to happen. We're just not happening. This is a big spot for them.

JC Horn's out. I think that helps the Bucs. Maybe they get the passing game going a little bit but uh you know it's easy to tell yourself a story where foreman is definitely not getting the volume that we've seen in like what we saw last week against detroit where they got up to you know crazy lead and they could really kind of just drive it home over and over again so yeah i don't hate that look at all it's pretty high the other thing too uh vita vea is practiced on a limited basis all three days this week so that would lean lean him towards, at least as of now, the more optimistic side of playing.

And even when he missed against the Bengals a few weeks ago, like Pirine was the Bengals leading rusher by 20 yards. Yeah, the Hubbard stuff, too, is enough there where you just have other outs for it to go wrong, even if the game goes in their favor. Even if it stays neutral scripts, very well could, you know, struggle and get chopped at, you know, 12, 13 carries. And this, and this goes, this goes back to the just kind of discussion

we had about Latavius Murray as well. Now that they're using, use Blackshear a little bit more as well, that there is no chance that Foreman is going to get any of the softest, easiest carries in third and long against these coverages he's just simply not going to be on the field yeah i like it you're selling me on

it for sure uh where are we at on that um so there's a panthers same game parlay for you yeah i feel like that would be a great same game probably because like you said like the bucks have to be winning by a lot so you can can take a Bucs minus six and a half and then parlay that with some Deontay Foreman unders. I mean, that's just such a great bet. Because if they're winning – I mean, I just was surprised how much they mauled Detroit in the trenches last week. They just dominated.

And I don't think we've seen that much of just – I mean, Detroit just hasn't been screwed like that in that in a while that was just amazing it was wild that's really been i think at the heart of of their turning their season around and they just got absolutely destroyed uh it's turning out to be a pretty decent offensive line there for carolina but uh yeah it might not matter yeah pretty much across the board foreman although again fanduel off market 56 and a half so it tells you a little bit too like you know getting the 61 and a half on draft kings under on foreman's probably a pretty good look you might be moving it's it's i'm looking at it right now because i'm trying

to play the same game parlay it's 61 and a half at bet 365 as well mgm caesars caesars actually juiced significantly to the under so they're going to be moving off the 61 and a half here shortly so but if you just play the thomas tremble same game parlay it's plus 260 just those two and if you factor in foreman's under it's plus 650 just those three it's pretty good any and i know this is i think he's been a guy that's on your do-not-touch list typically, Pat, but DJ Moore is a pretty good spot without Carlton Davis in the lineup. Carlton Davis is a corner that typically will shadow your best guy. Carlton Davis is, I think, doubtful for this game. Again, DJ Moore is kind of similar to like a Drake London where it's all –

it's just not a lot of passing volume, but he has such a massive share of the volume. Could be a decent spot for DJ Moore. Someone needs to add, you know, they're dying for a fourth leg here and they want to get as much of the Carolina passing game in one bet as they possibly can. I think DJ Moore is in a decent spot here, especially if you think the Bucs can maybe turn it on here as well.

I think it's a nice spot for him to have softer matchup. I just worry about the Bucs being able to turn it on, to be perfectly honest with you. That's more or less the issue with all of this. We have a comment here to throw in a Brady interception from Scampers in your same game parlay. Two interceptions in each of the last three games and then another pick against the Saints there.

So four straight games for the interception. Not sure they get it done in – or Carolina gets a pick here without J.C. Horn, but I certainly don't hate it considering how they're playing right now. Looking at it too, like Godwin's in that game at 68.5. The over on him is a pretty nice look. I mean, I really like that. It's one of my strongest leans of the week in terms of the projections is godwin over his number so godwin over 60 let's try to fill this out here we'll do

the same game parlay why not right uh so we have foreman under what we say brady pick yeah this scamper suggestion love it uh and we can throw bucks money line onto there just for just for fun quarterback props interceptions tom brady okay so we have a this is where i end up losing all my money isn't this god godwin over 68 and a half tommy tremble over nine and a half ian thomas over seven and a half don't deform in under 61 and a half bucks wins win Tom Brady over.5 interceptions, 40-1. Let's go. I mean, I'm on a fire on this, too. We're riding as a squad here at the same game parlay on the show.

How you been on worse outright golf winners at 40-1 in that same game parlay? Why not, right? About to be a hole. Cannot wait to give back all the... Do they release odds for that yet? I think Caesars is out with some TOC odds. Golf is back next week, Connor. And also join the one and done if you haven't.

FantasyGolfChampionships.com. 125 bucks for the year to play. It's four bucks a week. You win 50 grand. One and done's best. That's great uh great way to get into the golf connor actually last year joined our one and done that we ran internally at betsports late um and i caught up i had a couple hours i was but i was just taking your outright so i mean it didn't count i was just like but it works but you got in i caught up yeah you you had like why why don't you play in this one then i will maybe i will let's do max it five

entries how close to be it so if people if the actual people out there are serious about getting in you can have up to five entries if you go get your spot right now again fantasygolfchampionships.com and you screenshot me your entry on twitter at the pme i have a few free entries to give away so just i'll put you in a draw for a free one to go on top of the one you already paid for golf is again if you're taking those football football's best it's great golf betting is amazing there's so many ways to do it again we're gonna sell you on props here but like there's just so many ways to bet on golf um and it's a it's a great sport and it has similar cadence where you

have like a couple days to build up into the tournament starting where you have all like the you know pre-tournament stuff and then you can bet in tournament matchups finishing positions winners you know it's good so yeah here's how works. Like let's say you have a hundred dollars to invest. That means you bet a hundred dollars on a prop or a side or a total on a Sunday, on a football game or a Thursday night, it's three hours of entertainment. You can take that a hundred dollars and split it up between three golfers

for a much larger payout. And it lasts from Thursday through Sunday. So your entertainment value on those dollars spent through the roof. As soon as your guy makes the cut, sometimes your fun can end very... Sure, but you get three, like you don't have to bet $100 on one guy. Yeah, you get three shots. Yeah, at least. Like if you had $100 this week for the Tournament of Champions, I'm looking at the odds now.

It's like, oh shit, I can bet Tony Fina. I can put $30 on Tony Fina. What the hell is $30 paying? Like $600 if he ends up winning. You can go him. tony fina like we could put 30 bucks on tony fina what the hell is 30 bucks paying like 600 bucks if he ends up winning you can go him you can bet colin morikawa at 20 to 1 with another 30 bucks then you can throw 40 on scotty scheffler at 12 to 1 like i mean there is no cut this week so you do get your four days and you need to watch golf in hawaii it could be worse so all right uh let me see what i'm at the end here.

Give you a traditional prop. We talked about it a little bit. I think you guys are on it too. Let me see where we're at price-wise. Unfortunately, I typically, I like to bet a lot of like the attempts, completions, receptions type of stuff. And we are very limited out here in the market right now. We have a new one. Looks like Leonard Fournette's rushing attempts is out here. But I really like Kenneth Walker rushing attempts here.

16 and a half, basically minus 105 across the board. Before we started, it was juiced 15 and a half. Looks like it's moved a little bit. They gave him 26 carries on a bum ankle last week in negative game script. We just talked about, you know, Pat made a great case for the Geno Smith passing yards under. It's just a really bad spot to throw into this Jets defense. You know, the Seahawks are still alive.

If, you know, for playoff hopes, like they need Walker to get going here and to really kind of, you know, neutralize this Jets pass defense. I think they're going to need to lean on him. 16 and a half, again, is 10 fewer than they gave him last week against the Chiefs here. So 16 and a half minus 105 for Ken Walker, I think is a good look, waiting for some more of those to come out here. Again, very limited tackles and assists out there currently, but I'm going to give you some looks. Typically when I do this part, we don't necessarily get like projection edges. I'm giving you some stuff at the top of the board where i think the guy is going to exceed expectations again four four four dot com slash

plans it is thirty four dollars i promise you we can make thirty four dollars back this weekend on tackles alone um not just off of what connor's doing again that feels like super touty and i should have like gold chains and like chest hair popping out but I we can get you your money back 34 bucks um old school you know you're gonna be old so remember the old 800 number uh stuff that we used to get back in the day for for betting touts but uh all right tackles and assist Rashad Evans they're actually going to give you two Falcons here at the top Rashad Evans uh linebacker for the Falcons, probably going to be at like nine and a half, 10 plus in eight of nine. Before last week's kind of quiet game against Baltimore, they only had Baltimore only ran 51 plays. That happens sometimes against Baltimore. The home scorekeeper

in Atlanta is the best in the business. They are giving out the highest rate of assists per game um in this tackles and assists we don't care if they get the solo tackle again it's subjective and there are scorekeeper edges to be exploited and the falcons are one of the places that we want to do that they are giving out uh 30.6 assists per game which is basically 10 more than league average. Overall, they're giving up the third highest rate of assists. So great spot. Richie Grant is another Falcon that we're going to do this with. He's probably going to be at five and a half.

He has six or more in eight straight. For some reason, they just continue to open Richie Grant at five and a half. Again, we're going to take advantage of the same scorekeeper stuff. I don't think the matchup here against uh david blau really impacts this a ton uh because you're still seeing even when they had trace mcsorley they were still getting off a ton of plays stay still playing fairly fast and really had kind of like the same pass rush splits that they had even with kyler in the lineup so i don't think the blowout issues here are affecting us at all. Luke Masterson is a linebacker for the Raiders who might not get hung here because they haven't typically been – this is kind of the problem with tackles as well. They have great spots and they don't really post everyone.

The Raiders have had a dude retire instead of taking every down snaps for them, a linebacker. They've had four guys get lost for the season. And now Masterson is the last man standing and has a pretty elite tackle rate. So if he's even hung at like eight and a half, nine and a half, this guy is, I haven't projected for almost 11 in this spot against the Niners who should run a ton in the second half. And linebackers against the Niners have fared fairly well.

Also good scorekeeper data at home for Las Vegas. Jalen Petrie, safety for Houston, probably going to be at seven and a half. He has been a monster of late, nine or more in four straights, plays every down. A safety for the Texans who have terrible tackling linebackers. So the safety has got a lot of opportunities, which is why he's been getting a lot of tackles. I've projected for almost nine. Again, I feel pretty confident he'll be posted at seven and a half. Again, very favorable scorekeeper data in Houston as well. The Patriots, we talked about Juwan Bentley last week.

We gave him out here at seven and a half. At plus money, I think you're going to see seven and a half on him again. He's got 10 or more in three straights and the Patriots have the biggest discrepancy between home and road assists granted. They do not give out assist to the visitors 12.7 per game, which is significantly lighter than the 26 and a half that they give the home team. So Patriots guys are in really good spots. Bentley played a hundred percent of the snaps last week. So he's been like 85,

90 early in the season. He was like 65. He's just kind of trending up. So I think his, it's why his number is kind of lagging behind. So those are some of my favorite looks just without anything being posted again, getting the discord four for four.com slash plans,

get the subscription 34 bucks. You can get all the official plays went two and oh last night uh with uh michael parsons under four and a half he had one uh and then monty rice had like 12 or 13 i think on over eight and a half so i'm gonna continue to crush it all right uh but what else anything else let's get to some listener questions here before we wrap up. We've got five minutes or so. Make sure I didn't miss anything at the top.

Thank you guys for hanging out with us. We appreciate it. This is one of my favorite things to do every week. We love your questions. Gus Bus from Brian, over 39 and a half. Connor, this has been a weekly bang for you. This has been pretty profitable. Yeah. I mean, literally against the Steelers last time, 13 for 66.

I guess my only concern would be that the last two matchups against Cleveland and Atlanta, I mean, those are just awesome spots, like literally like top three spots. And the Steelers, I wouldn't say they're necessarily like a bad spot. They're just like they don't pop there. And we know that it's going to be Dobbins is like the one a, and then Gus is the one B and like, you just need the volume. Like in this spot, you need 10 plus carries. And like, I don't think that's always guaranteed.

We saw seven against Cleveland. They fell behind a little bit. So I think that's kind of my only worry with this one. Like I definitely will go back to it in other spots because it's probably too low every single week. It should probably be like 45 here, but yeah, in better matchups, I like it. I have him at 29% of the team's rushing share this week,

and that factors out into projections as, let's see here, eight carries for 43 yards. Still have to get it done. Yep. Yeah, he's been what 34 27 32 the last couple weeks so yeah even if you're you know pat's kind of right in the middle of that and uh it's been enough for us to get it done so yeah i don't think it's a bad matchup no problem going uh back to that uh let's see here we got got Fire Sports on Tyreek Hill over yards whenever the line comes out.

Yeah, the Patriots secondary is decimated. I haven't seen any official stuff before we jumped on here, but basically the majority of their starters have not been practicing all week. So they are definitely going to be running out some secondary guys in the secondary. I have no problem with the tyreek number probably gonna still be in like the mid 80s even though teddy's here so no problem with that uh pad you haven't have access to your tyreek number oh yeah 96 yards but i mean teddy it's been not great how did tyreek do how did ty Tyreek do in that Bengals game earlier this year?

I just remember him coming... Teddy came into the game and just bombed it to Tyreek on the first play. And that was basically everything he did. Yeah, he was in that game. I don't know what the split was between Tua and Teddy Bridgewater, but he was 10 for 160 in that Thursday night game that they lost. Teddy played the next week. Did he play the next week against the Jets?

He did, right? Teddy played the next week against the Jets. No, Scott was out. Yeah, you're right. You're right. Oh, yeah. He got knocked out early in the game with the first play. Oh, yeah, that's right.

So, yeah, I mean, I have no baseline for Teddy Bridgewater right now. Yeah, I think to a higher sports point, I think that if we catch a lower prop than normal, I'm totally fine hitting the over here. But if we get, like, the normal prop, then I'm fine. But Teddy did enjoy the next game against Minnesota. Did he? Yeah, but he didn't start that game.

He came in injured because Skylar Thompson got hurt in that game. Yeah, and then Tyreek went for 12 for 177 on 15 targets. Okay, so maybe the over is most definitely the play here because we have Teddy Bridgewater, 14 for 23 against the Bengals in catch-up mode. No receiver had over 55 yards except for Tyreek, who was 10 of 160 on 14 targets. So Tyreek's the only guy that Teddy Bridgewater throws to. Yeah, that's a monster game against, I mean,

great matchup against Minnesota, but yeah, he definitely, he crushed in that one. Walla had a nice little day too, 10 targets, 6 for 129. But yeah, Tyreek seems to have had some pretty good games with Teddy. So Waddle had a nice little day too. 10 targets, six for 129. But yeah, Tyreek seems to have had some pretty good games with Teddy. So smart. Seems like a good idea. Throw the ball to Tyreek every time you drop back.

Maybe over receptions once that comes out. And probably we are going to get a discount, I think, on both receptions and yards because of the quarterback. It's probably six and a half. I would say even over seven and a half. I mean, that's not ideal obviously, but I think, yeah,

that's there. I bet it's six and a half. All right. Let's see. We'll see. We got here. Same game. Lucas wants to know.

It's not open currently, but thoughts on Jacoby Myers over receiving yards probably does open the low fifties. Sometimes even like the high forties. I don't know, man. Like it's been so bad. thoughts on Jacoby Myers over receiving yards probably does open the low 50s sometimes even like the high 40s I don't know man like it's been so bad offensively in New England uh the passing game I mean like Jacoby needed a pretty freak tip ball helmet type of catch last week to get there um I mean he obviously is the primary passing weapon there, but that's not really saying too, too much. Kind of a stay away for me. Again, the matchup is pretty great.

I mean, Miami has been giving it up against passing offenses all season, but, you know, just that game starts. I'm going to be feeling pretty thin about how that current offense is playing. And I don't want any overs there. Connor, what are your thoughts? No, I totally agree. I think that's spot on here. And then we have a little bit of news here. Lamar Jackson

officially ruled out mid-show. I guess that was kind of expected, at least in my opinion. One last look before you guys hop off. Pat mentioned it last week. Curtis Samuel overs with Carson Wentz back. Went 5-52 last week. Pretty solid spot here as well. I think this could be another great week to

bet some overs on him. An automatic 5 receptions for 50 yards so what what was the number being spit out uh there's no there's no number yet i don't see one but it was just on my list of things to bet uh an over on for sure yeah let me see it looks like nothing um no it looks like no he's not posted but they – Dotson's posted and McLaurin's posted. Dotson at 44 and a half. What's McLaurin? Because I'm interested in McLaurin. 50 – so FanDuel is 56 and a half.

Points bet 55 and a half. Yeah, and 44 and a half for Dotson. Yeah, DraftKings, MGM, Caesars have not entered. You rarely see FanDuel or points bets be first in the market for anything. So they are here and ready to get your commanders money. Yeah. I got Curtis Samuel four catches, 48 yards.

It's going to be well below that. Yeah. I like that too. It's a good look. All right, gents. It's good. Anything else for the people before we wrap it up?

Pat, where can everyone find your stuff? Mayo Media Network and the one and done. So let's try to fill that up. I wonder how many spots remain. It doesn't start for another two weeks. Starts at the Sony Open, but this happens every year.

Noonan, you know about this, where people will be like they're going to kick their heels on it, be like, oh, I really want to play. I'll make sure I do that next week. And then all of a sudden they just don't do it. It's almost half full now, and we really haven't started promoting it yet. Getting the one and done. It's fun.

It's a fun way to gamble on golf. Like Pat said, it is super cheap relative to the entertainment value that you get out of the course of an entire season basically this will take you into you know late august um pretty simple one and done you pick a golfer to win the tournament every week you can only use him once during the season you get his prize money as your points for the season and uh you know competitive field through uh obviously everyone that tunes into pat for golf stuff and uh nice little prize money at the end too. So set yourself a reminder on your phone when you do so Wednesday nights,

maybe Wednesday afternoon sometimes. Cause you get some of that, like, you know, golf sometimes overseas or different stuff, like set yourself an alarm so you don't miss your guy. Otherwise you get, you don't even need to do that.

You can just type in your phone number into the system and it will send you a text alert of that. Hey, you haven't made a pick yet. You should make a pick. Can't be it. There we are. Easy.

My guy, Sam C., wants to know where he can get it. Just another reminder. FantasyGolfChampionships.com. Connor, tacos, tequila, what else is coming from you? Yep. Meeting up with our boss, the behind-the-scenes Luis, for some Kobe steaks tonight and a lot of tequila. So very excited about that. We'll have a bunch more props coming in the next few days, getting down on them in my, you know, unconventional ways down here in Mexico. But, you know, I'll find a way to get some action down myself and continue printing out winners for you and tailing your tackle props.

Love it. Yeah, you get three, six, five while you're down there. So I might have to send you some money and find a way to make some of this work this week. So let's do it. Good stuff as always gents. Enjoy the new year. Thanks for everyone hanging out with us. We will be back for the shit show that is week 18, but there will be props to be bet on and you know, you don't have to worry about dealing with all that stuff. We'll be here to handle it for you. So for Pat and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next week.