Move The Line - Week 18 NFL Prop Bets

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

Week 18 NFL Prop Bets from Ryan Noonan, Connor Allen & Pat Mayo. The trio share their top Week 18 NFL player prop bets. Tail them as they hand out their top picks, highlight the best betting odds & share their expert predictions.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro4:47 Connor Prop Bet 5:53 Pat Prop Bet10:20 Ryan Prop Bet15:37 Pat Prop Bet 17:14 Ryan Prop Bet 19:14 Connor Prop Bet 21:33 Pat Prop Bet 25:18 Ryan Prop Bet 28:02 Connor Prop Bet 29:49 Pat Prop Bet 30:49 Ryan Prop Bet32:13 Tackle Props34:50 Q+A Props41:46 OutroGet 4for4's Betting Package for our Picks & Tools 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Betting on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4BetsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Pat on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ThePMEVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Prop Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3TWC40v4for4 Player Prop Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3pQ2tQ14for4 Player Prop Finder 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wxTcQc4for4 Player Prop Odds Comparison Tool 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3AQ5TbK

Hello, welcome to Move Align, the Prop Drop Show. I'm Ryan Noonan, back to talk about the best way and the most profitable way to bet on NFL football, and that is play of props. Live here, 2 p.m. Eastern, every Friday, keeping it rolling through the Super Bowl, giving you our favorite player props on the board and the ones that we're looking for that aren't currently on the board, taking your questions as well. So if you're hanging out with us now live on YouTube, subscribe first, so you don't miss a show. Smash that like button goes a long way in helping us out and jump in the chat let us know what your favorite prop look for week 18 is definitely a tricky week for sure

added elements of uh of difficulty here this week obviously with scheduling unknowns that have just kind of started to make sure that they they're cleared up and we know what the week 18 slate is now joining me here as always connor allen how we? Great. I was just reminded pre-show by producer Sal that apparently the Sinaloa cartel is moving in currently on my location in Mexico. So very excited to get out of the country, hopefully safely. Hopefully safely return home. And our other guests, of course, joining us here as always, the man from the Mayo Media Network and the Pat Mayo Experience just recently booked a trip to mexico so good times fat how we doing yeah my car wasn't stolen so i should be okay it's true could be a rough rough week for me i mean car stolen attacked

by a cartel i mean at least good stories though right i think you know made some memories that's all you need from a vacation yeah the memories are huge yeah what are you doing you're gonna come come home to what like what are you what's the situation there you don't know unfortunately connor's car uh got stolen out of his driveway with the usb uh while he's been in mexico so uh maybe a watcher of the show knew you were out of the country and uh made their way over your to your house i mean the joke's on them because now i'm getting a nice new car uh because my insurance is going to count it as totaled in like whatever a week if it's still not found and currently still on my age so uh you know shout out to the kia boys for hooking it up with a nice new car for me the crazy part is is that they they got involved in like a high speed chase and they

couldn't catch it. That's really the only way that, you know, cause otherwise you'd be just going home to an empty driveway. But like, luckily that actually happened and worked out that way for you, which is kind of crazy. Yeah. It was amazing. It's like a call at 3am. They're like, Hey, what were you doing? You know, at 1am. And I was like, I'm in Mexico, you know? And they're like, Oh, well we saw your car driving like 30 minutes away from your house, like 70 miles an hour. Tried to pull it over, but didn't get him. So, yeah, your car's stolen. And I was like, okay, well, what do I do?

You know, I've never had that happen to me. So I had to go through all that crap. And hopefully it looks like we'll come out of the other side hole. And as long as everything goes well. I honestly hope they don't find the car at this point. Because if they find, like, a car beaten to shit, you know, like in some, like, dump. Now I've got to go through the process of, like, fixing it or whatever. Like, if it's not totaled. Like, I don't even want car at this point because they find like a car beaten to shit you know like in some like dump now i gotta go through the process of like fixing it or whatever like if it's not totaled like i don't even want to deal with that just dump it total it give me a new car yeah all bricked up

you don't want to you don't want to find that thing so hopefully it works out for everyone uh we'll let folks know before we jump into props here uh two episodes of move the line each week both available here on youtube also in podcast podcast form, wherever you consume podcasts. This is the Prop Drop Show. We have a game preview show with Connor, John Degg and myself looking more at sides and totals. Again, available on both YouTube and podcast. So we appreciate you subscribing so you don't miss those out, miss those episodes at all. Also a new unique YouTube channel for 4Bets with original content there every week as well.

We're obviously winding down mentioned. We're going to keep this rolling through the super bowl. We have a discounted subscription over at four for four. You can go to four for four.com slash plans. You don't need a promo code is discounted on the site. $34 for a betting subscription gets you everything on the site, all the tools, discord channels,

everything through the end of February. So you get a little bit of maybe golf content, NBA, MMA. If you're in the Pick'Em channels or Pick'Em sites, we have channels specific for that as well if you want to jump in there. Again, 444.com slash plans. We've been kind of bemoaning before we started here. It's week 18. This is really tough.

And we basically have parts of seven games available right now. So we're going to talk about some plays that are available. We're going to give you some looks that we like. Hopefully we can ballpark the number for you and give you an idea of where we would jump in. And we've had to do that at times in the last couple of weeks too as books have been slow to release. So we will do our best to do that here. Connor, I'll let you get started with your first play for week 18. yeah my first play here is going to be a saturday game travis etn i like the under on his rushing yards this has gotten all the way up to 68 and a half i played it at 62 and

a half i know another group hit the over there but i really like this under the titans last week essentially got a buy wrestling some of their players against dallas now have a very healthy defense compared to what they have the past few weeks. But I mean, regardless, their front seven has been very healthy and been very good when they are healthy. This season allowing just 3.41 yards per carry to opposing running backs, second in run defense DVOA, and they haven't allowed a 60-yard rusher since week three, including a 17-carry, 32-yard performance from Etienne um and not to mention the last time we saw the jags and titans play the jags kind of knew what to focus on here they came

out through the ball 38 times with just 16 total rushing attempts through the first three quarters um until the game got out of hand it was like 33 to 14 at that point so i expect them to go past heavy here and if they're up big i don't think it's going to be etn necessarily getting the carries here it might mix in some other guys as well so i like the under here i think now you're able to find like 68 and a half i think it's a great be ETN necessarily getting the carries here. It might mix in some other guys as well. So I like the under here. I think now you're able to find like 68 and a half. I think it's a great look. Correlates well with, I think, something else that's maybe coming from you later. Pat, any leans on the Jacksonville game here?

Yeah. So, I mean, I'm going to make that one my first one. It's going to be Zay Jones over 54 and a half receiving yards. I think you could theoretically just play Jones, Ingram, and Kirk all till they're over. And you'd probably be doing pretty well in this spot, because I saw the same thing that Connor did. Jacksonville smartened up basically in the second half of the season and just really decided to ride with what the defense is giving them. The defense is going to be giving them everything 8 to 15 yards down the field in

the passing game. Why even try to run in this circumstance? And I think it's going to be enough to feed all three of those guys. Zay Jones, I like the best. And I mean, 58, 54 and a half is not a huge number to cover here. No, actually it brings up another point too, because I like the line too. I like the Kirk line to your points. And there's been a lot of discussion in the Twitter space in the last,

you know, about 48 hours or so, which happens every year, week 18, is the incentive piece, Pat. And I'd love to get your thoughts on the just blindly tailing props for player incentives. We talked about this a little bit on our Wednesday show. Zay Jones and Christian Kirk are involved where I think they have pretty low thresholds.

I think it's receptions. I think they both need like two receptions or pretty low yards. I don't even know what it is, but what are your thoughts on that process? And you know, how much do you tie that into any of your analysis at all? I did. I,

okay. It's not that I don't, but there's two ways to look at this. And I believe that Kirk and Jones both need like 89 yards or something like that to both get a half a million dollars. I think it matters in games that don't mean anything. And then they can just simply like if Minnesota jumps up by like 14 on the Bears, I think every play is just going to be nine yards slant to Justin Jefferson

to get them to the number. So I think that's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is if you're in contention to hit some of your bonuses for the year, it probably means you're pretty good anyway that your overs normally hit. So I think that no one's going to bet the over on kenny galladay this week or cam acres who needs 800 rushing yards in order to get to his number so like i don't know you can see the ones that are within reach and is it plausible that they get there then they probably get there because that's what they do i agree and connor does too we talked about this also like tailing

like money line parlays against teams that need the win versus teams that don't like these things i think could be very very dangerous we saw last year the you know i think the colts and jaguars is the one that jumps out to mind first but uh connor any other thoughts uh to kind of tap on what pat did no i mean i think you did a great job explaining it it's like because if you look at what the whole contract incentive thing is about it's like in games that don't matter, that's an extra piece of motivation to a coach wanting to dial up plays for a player or a quarterback wanting to feed a player to get them there.

If you're in a game that needs to be won, like this Jacksonville-Tennessee game, they're not going to care about Christian Kirk getting 91 yards. He might still get there because the matchup's awesome, but they're not going to be like, oh, he's at 88 yards. We've got to throw him another slant. That's just not something that happened. Doug Peterson is going to focus on winning. I mean, imagine a post-conference presser where they're like, they're not going to be like, oh, he's at 88 yards. We got to throw him another slant. You know, like that's just not something that happened. Doug Peterson is going to focus on winning. I mean, imagine a post-conference presser where they're like, Doug, like, why did you

throw it on third down and one instead of running the ball to, you know, Christian Kirk? Oh, I wanted to get him his $500,000 bonus, but it cost us the game. Like, I mean, imagine that. That'll never happen. Like that would never, in what world would that happen? So I don't know. I see stuff like that. I think it's kind of funny.

I do think it matters in some instances, but this year is is kind of there's not a whole lot of it honestly there's nothing that I've seen that's really stood out maybe there was two chargers ones that I thought were interesting like a DeAndre Carter two receptions he needs to get there and he's been playing a little bit more lately and then I think there was a Gerald Everett one but I don't even know if he's gonna play so I don't know if that he needs like 40 yards I think so like those like those are, again, those are like, I mean, really might not even matter either. Yeah, those are all good points. I think you got to go case by case and, you know,

blindly tailing him because you see someone reference that as, as the reason behind it. I think you should just be careful and make sure that it lines up to, to Pat's point. Like it's a good player. If he's close to incentive, he's probably earned it. Make sure it's not far off. Like last year, Cooper Cup needed 135 yards

or something like that. And like they hung his line at that number. And, you know, it's just so inflated. You're paying the tax in some instances too. So, you know, I think the Justin Jefferson one is interesting. It's like, it's almost 200 receiving yards. But again, like it's a game that they kind of are telling you that they want to play. And the Bears, obviously, even if they were playing their guys, I don't even know what

that means. So that one's kind of interesting. Maybe all it's on Justin Jefferson. But first play for me here is going to be on. So this isn't readily available. I haven't posted it for our subscribers or four 444 because it's only been on two books. It's available on PointsBet. It dropped a little bit.

It's out there still currently on FanDuel. That's Romandre Stevenson under 52 and a half rushing yards. On PointsBet, you can also take his total yards at 75 and a half. I think the under is still really good there as well he is not top this he's only done this once in the past seven games and that was when he had basically no competition in the backfield then last week damian harris coming back and more carries we've heard remandre in the press talk about this is taking a toll on him a little bit this season he's feeling it on his body this is a massive workload he did not have a massive workload at Oklahoma in college even.

And now you have a really difficult matchup on the road against an emotional Bills team. Bills are still a top 10 run defense. It's going to be a negative game script as well. So I get like Connor and I were talking about this. Connor agrees. This is why I'm leaning rushing yards too. In negative game script,

you could probably see a little bit more passing down work for Ramondre. Even that's been pretty bad this year. Like you're getting a ton of carries, but he isn't topped even with like five, six targets a game. He's not even getting like 10 receiving yards. He's like catching and falling down a ton. So Ramondre,

I think is ready for the off season. I think the Patriots are as well. So Ramondre under 52 and a half rushing yards is the play. Again, DraftKings not in on that yet. Caesars, MGM, but I still kind of like it. I mean, even high 40s is probably a good look because, like, there's a lot of outs here. Like, if the Bills go big, they're probably going to run the ball.

So you're probably looking at less carries. And as you mentioned, he's been tired. He hasn't been very efficient. And, you know, Damian Harris has been eating into his work. So there's a bunch of work there. We did discuss the rushing receiving yards under because that's a little bit more widely available, I believe. And that's, I mean, I just, I have these like, you know, I'm scarred from these running backs, just running, like running little curl routes out of the backfield and sitting like seven yards past line of scrimmage, catching the ball and then tumbling forward for like five more yards.

So, you know, I think that it's like, it's one of those things that like you can easily just get two or three of those and you lose your bet because of that rather than the rushing yards, which has way more out. So I like that under a lot. Yeah. I've had any thoughts on remandering. Not really, but I did cook up a same game parlayed for that Tennessee Jacksonville game while you were talking.

We have ETN under 64.5 rushing yards. This is at 365. Zay Jones over 55.5, so the two that we like. I like Okonkwo over 25.5 receiving yards. I like Derrick Henry over 14.5 receiving yards. Just based on the way in potential game script, the way that Dobbs checked down to his running backs last week, and now that we know Derrick Henry is going to be back he's going to be on the field the entire time I'm just

going to translate that all onto him I think it was like four for 74 or something like that through the air last week for running backs and then Dobbs himself over 16 and a half rushing yards that's easy 25 to 1 printed 25 I love it now we're getting up there because those aren't even alts really right you're taking just the same those are just straight up props i mean not that i ever go four and oh on the show except for the same game parlay as mentioned that i gave out last week which one uh so now i'm greedy and i'm bumping it up again three six five that might be out there elsewhere too because again that's the one one of the only games that we're basically getting a full slate of props currently uh most other stuff is pretty limited currently but but try to keep it rolling.

I don't know if you have an official play, Connor, your next one or the next thing that you are eyeballing here for us. No, I mean, that same game parlay is right in line with kind of what I was looking at for my other play. And I played, maybe I'm too into one situation here, but I had to play Trevor Lawrence's over on his passing yards here as well. I mentioned it earlier, just massive pass funnel. They literally 70% pass right through three quarters last year

or last time against the Titans. It's a must-win game. I can see them going out and just going massively passively. I think you take alternate overs for Lawrence like 300-plus yards pretty easily. Had 356 last time. I thought attempts and completion overs were both good looks too, but I thought those were a little bit more thin given that they go up like 24-0 you know maybe the volume doesn't get there but i really i think you know i that probably doesn't help your same game parlay at this point but uh if it does

then you know i think that's a throw in at this point probably get it up to 40 there pat with a little trevor lawrence action would you like me to see what that does yeah let's see all right give me the give me the second. Is Trevor Lawrence going to be your second play? Yeah, that was my second play. Those are like my only two official plays that I've played so far. All right. Well, I'll give you mine while I try to work this out.

Then I'll recap it once we get back to Noonan. It's on the board right now. I mean, I'm just waiting for Jets props so I can smash those. So just in full disclosure, Garrett Wilson, over. I don't care what the number is. Tower Conk Wilson over. I don't care what the number is. Tyler Conklin over. Don't care what the number is. Joe Flacco pass attempts.

Don't care what the number is. Going over. I told Nona before we came on, I play Flacco to over 45 and a half. And I bet you it's probably gonna be like 39 and a half, but he's gonna be chucking. And you know who he likes to chuck to?

Two guys, as it turns out. Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin. We'll see if that's changed over the past three months, but i very much doubt that it has so just those three individually same game parlay whatever you want to do but i will be going to the ram seattle game 72 and a half over rushing yards for cam acres i would play outlines on this i think he is going to destroy them well yeah they're beat up to uh they're all pro linebacker jordan brooks is uh done for the year with an acl injury it's a mess there too i i'm tailing i also have the conklin

and garrett wilson stuff down it is uh i think it's kind of a great spot for them we had three flacco starts uh both of these guys caught on average through three games six balls on eight targets um great matchup miami struggles mightily against tight ends this season catch rates dvoa Both of these guys caught, on average, through three games, six balls and eight targets. Great matchup. Miami struggles mightily against tight ends this season. Catch rates, DVOA, receiving yards, whatever you want to do. Tight ends against Miami have just been fed and done really well. And Garrett Wilson was a part-time player during the Flacco starts. He was running about on 64% of the dropbacks.

Still eight targets, 14 targets, and 11 targets in the Flacco starts. So like he's coming out there, good old, you know, F1 Ford pickup truck, uh, going to get the job done and, uh, chuck it around quite a bit. And Miami has been a pass funnel. They have been actually much better against the run than the past. So yeah, I'm, uh, I'm with Pat on, uh, on that stuff. My second point, I want to reiterate that one but then uh i want to wait a little bit i'm gonna i'm gonna mention it because i am leaning over anyway i want to get the mccall hardman injury news for sure he has been taken off of ir they have not said if they were going to make him active sky more is out in this game and even in a part-time role i'm trying to get whole some way on cadareous tony a lot of best

ball cadareous tony um 36 35 and a half receiving yards is out there on tony i mean we know like the chiefs need this game mahomes wants to put a nail in the mvp coffin here the raiders are a terrible pass defense and even in limited role we've seen like last week four balls for receptions 71 yards for cadareous tony he could do it on very limited work i think he probably approaches 45 50 percent route participation if harman is out so big place for tony um that's going to be probably a play for me and i think that's available on both fanduel and points bet currently so not readily available not everywhere i still want to wait for the har harmonies but I think that's definitely something for you to watch I I think Hardman's going to be back and if that's the case it's almost like a one-for-one correlation

with the rise of a certain player on the Chiefs and the absence of me cool hard man uh it's Jarek McKinnon if Hardman's back I just go under 33 and a half receiving yards on McKinnon Connor and I were talking about that line it's crazy crazy yeah but if Hardman is back, I'd just go under 33 and a half receiving yards on McKinnon. Connor and I were talking about that line. It's crazy. Yeah, but if Hardman is out, I like the over. Yeah, he's averaging like 67 receiving yards per game in like the last five weeks. But go look at when that started. It was the week Hardman went out.

Interesting. Yeah, so maybe the Tony Blake can work and maybe that correlates. We're building more same game parlays here. It correlates well together. So I did finish that one off. correlates we're building more same game parlays here uh correlates well together so so i i did finish that one off so etn under dobbs over rushing zay jones over receiving lawrence over oh fuck i picked i picked past completions i'm gonna cash that one out either way um derrick henry over receiving yards okonkwo over receiving yards 33 to 1 and i think with passing yards it's

exactly the same i actually when i kind of was talking about the receiving yards, 33 to one. And I think with passing yards, it's exactly the same. I actually, when I, Connor was talking about the receiving yards play, I kind of, I liked the completion number two. I kind of hate that as a 23 and a half. It's 24 and a half here. Okay. Yeah.

So that's no fun. That's getting a little higher. Yeah. All right. Connor back to you. Reminder. If you're hanging out in the chat, jump in. Let us know what your favorite look is for Week 18.

Is there anything that you want us to talk about? We have time at the end of the show. What do you got, Connor? Yeah, so one that I haven't made official but is still available. It's on FanDuel and PointsBet right now and I think a couple other spots. One that I was eyeing, J.K. Dobbins under 64 rushing yards. I know he's been crushing this lately, but we came out of the last game and they were like, we need to get Gus more involved.

Only two carries for three yards. Now you have, now you have Tyler Huntley maybe out for this game. They're like very noncommittal against it. All of a sudden they're like, we don't know if he's going to play. I mean, they're seven and a half point underdog. There's not more at this point.

I mean, if, if Huntley doesn't play, they're going to close this like 10 point dogs. I mean, I would just worry about the matchup too, given that Cincinnati with DJ Reader has been really good, you know, defensively. So, I mean, if he's getting more like 10 to 12 carries

instead of his like 15-ish that he's getting, you know, I think the under here could be a solid look, especially if there's game script concerns as well. So, this is something I haven't played yet, but I was kind of waiting for some more outs to be official. But it is a look that I like, and I was curious on your guys opinions on that it's i know it's tough betting against him how good he's been at least in terms of the final stat line but any thoughts we got here pat any projection there let me look it up you you go no real thoughts it's such a

weird situation um because i feel like they're annoyed or it sounded like harbaugh was annoyed that we didn't get enough Gus bus last week. It sounded like a shot at Greg Roman. He really wanted to have a little bit more of that, but I don't have a good feel for it. Six carries for 28 yards. For Gus or for Dobbins? For Gus Edwards. Okay. And then Dobbins would be 14 carries for 70 yards.

Yeah, yeah. It's tough. Well, it's probably a negative game script the most of the game, so how much can they really run? They're going to want to run, but how long is that going to work? Yeah, you can have like 40 yards in the first half, and then the second half have like 10. You know what I mean?

Yeah. Yeah, it's not a great situation. I think that Baltimore offense has been so bad without Lamar. That situation is so strange because I feel like he's ready, and this is a contract thing, I feel like. So tough spot for that Ravens club. Bat number three for you. What are you looking at?

Well, it's listed. I like the Zach Moss over rushing prop, whatever it may end up being. Who knows? My projection has him at 289 rushing yards this week. Now, Jordan Wilkins not playing. It's a great spot against Houston for him. But his anytime touchdown is plus 135. I would prefer to play the over rushing prop.

However, that does not exist at the moment. So I assume it's going to eventually drop probably 72 and a half, 73 and a half. Love the over on that. I even tried to look it up on prize picks. Doesn't exist there either. But the one Zach Moss prop you can get right now is anytime touchdown plus 135.

And I like that as well. Yeah. What a game. Colts, Colts, Texans this week, you're a texans or a bears fan i can't imagine many people uh or you own a bears to have the worst record future from august and you're like oh this is back in play ah connor has one do you have one of those i do nice okay i've already got cashed out on my alt under a five and a half so the bears can be very profitable for me after looking after the first three weeks i thought i was dead oh man i was getting in like fights at the bars over the summer with people chicago fans saying

like i was like guys they're gonna be horrible and they're like no they're not they got rid of nagy they're gonna be good like that's all that it takes. I'm like, their roster still sucks. Like, you know, it doesn't matter if their coach got better, which it did. I mean, they've actually, I mean, Justin Fields has willed them to even where they're at. Like, they shouldn't have even been in most games, to be honest. They should have lost, I mean, maybe not every game, but you get a normal game against San Francisco in week one where it's not pissing rain the entire time.

They lose that too. So, I mean, this could have easily been a one to two win team. Yeah. I mean, I think I had them capped right And they just A big solid Trading away Roquan Smith Because like since then

We haven't stopped anything Yeah Oh yeah Yeah it's been a mess Yeah he got off To a really rocky start Because we got three Pretty early

But then And the schedule Looked fairly manageable But we Yeah we took A five and a half alts And then it actually ended up closing there by the time the season kicked off so uh thank you thank you bears for your

continued ineptitude and be sure to see if uh the texans want to show some of that too and give up the number one pick because i think that that's within the range of outcomes for houston so i played the other same game parlay here let's see what do i have zay jones projected i haven't met six catches for 72 yards. So what I did play... So this one's a bit riskier. 60 to 1, though. Zay Jones, 75 or more yards.

Zay Jones, four or more receptions. I probably should have flipped that, done like six or more receptions and lower yardage. Either way. Okonkwo over. Henry over receiving. Lawrence over passing.

Etienne under rushing. And Dobbs over over rushing 60 to 1 sounds like a tom hoagie outright except this one has a chance of winning uh mary rose letting us know that they draft kings have taken down etn and zay jones uh lines currently so uh you guys are steaming those and crushing the market. Hopefully you got in when the guys gave out those props and I'll be to the sea with it. I'm on it right now. Zay Jones over 54.5.

Minus 120. Still playable. The market probably won't move too much from here on. It'll probably be settled, but I'm very excited to build some awesome saving game parlays along the lines that we're talking about here because I feel like we have a really good read on the Jaguars. I'm very excited to build some awesome same-game parlays, just kind of along the lines that we're talking about here because I feel like we have a really good read on the Jaguars.

I'm not necessarily sure the upside is kind of built into that, you know, where, like, what we're looking at, especially with same-game parlays. I think you could do, like, alternate same-game parlays, even if you just want to focus on the Jaguars, like, Lawrence, 280, Kirk, whatever, 75, Ingram, 75, something like that. You'd probably get some great odds on something even a little bit smaller like that. right Pat it's a third look I was the Zach Moss

Zach Moss for me one of my hosts um gosh this is this is gross um I don't love this one I'm gonna I want receptions for Tyler Higbee um versus yards. Receiving yards is out there currently at 30 and a half. He has been a target hog with Baker Mayfield under center, almost six per game, running around on almost 70% of the dropbacks. Seattle has been dreadful at stopping tight ends. We talked about some of the injuries in linebacker. They have injuries at safety as well. Basically any metric you want

DVOA Seattle 29th against tight ends 31st in receiving yards allowed 30 seconds in yards per reception they've just been giving it up it's basically not a lot of passing game coming from the Raiders at this or the Rams at this point but when they do so Tyler Higby is pretty heavily involved I'd imagine we get like two and a half receptions. I prefer that versus the 30 yards because even in these games where he's been getting peppered from Baker, some of the yardage outputs are still a little hard to get your head around. So I'd prefer that if we get a decent number on two and a half, but just kind of a good matchup and want to see where the books post that.

But again, kind of thin pickings with where we're at currently. Any thoughts on, on Higby there, Pat? I bet he'll open at four or three and a half with heavy. Really? Okay. I haven't projected at four and a half.

So usually the numbers aren't that far off. So there is an incentive here that could matter. I mean, he needs 13 yards for a $500,000 bonus. So obviously he'll get that like pretty easily but i think the point is that if you're betting receptions it probably means like they're probably scheming up maybe like one extra play for him or something like that um so one or two maybe you know just to get him that 13 yards but i think from the reception

perspective like even if it's you know one of those like like a play action bootleg where he's kind of leaking out something like that that could add up real quick like one or two quick receptions um and get you over this number at least put you on a good start so i mean i know it's a little bit thin but you know that's something that i think potentially could actually matter yeah i mean look he's got you know a bunch of targets and receptions the last couple games you know five targets caught four of them against Green Bay, 27 yards. Three catches on four targets last week, 11 yards. So he can very well get peppered with targets and not get there. We actually are right around, it sounds like where Pat is in our projections at 4.9 receptions.

We shoot for 46 yards, which is, I think, a little healthy there too. Part of it's just the matchup is so much better than some of the matchups in the past couple of weeks. So yeah, maybe the three and a half is still probably in play depending on the the price there so worth a look and i'll be waiting to see when that comes out uh when the reception market starts to evolve because there's really nothing out there for us right now all right connor back to you last uh last look last couple things you want to uh let us know this is one that i saw and smiled about because I knew that you would love it.

Josh Allen's rushing yard is only 40 right now, just 40 even. Must-win game for Josh. I know that he got stifled a little bit by New England last time, but they were winning by like two scores heading to the fourth quarter, three scores I think actually, or 17 points. You know, this is basically a playoff game for them. Essentially, they're going to treat it as a must-win scenario. New England plays a ton of man, have not been great against russian quarterbacks

um because he josh allen's like routinely gone over this number so i thought it was a great look i think it's i i mean i know that you're this is normally your style but uh i would expect this to close around like 45 46 yeah i like it i have it on my list is uh it's something to look for um when it popped or you know maybe i want to dig into a little bit because New England's been really bad against Russian quarterbacks, as you mentioned. So, yeah, the man stuff, that's kind of what I wanted to dig into is a little bit of New England's tendency of late shifting from a little bit more man early in the season to more zone. But still, you mentioned we like this in the playoffs with the rushing quarterbacks. Mahomes has been one we've had success with the last handful of years because he's typically lines and like the low to mid-teens and routinely gets 20 plus rushing yards in playoff games.

So yeah, I can get behind that. Pat, any thoughts about Josh Allen rushing? Yeah, I mean, there's two things with the Rams game and the Bills game. I love the Rams against the Seahawks and I love the Bills to smash the Patriots this week. anything over from those games i love it makes a lot of sense how about last stuff for you empty the clip here i'm trying to find it here where is it where are receptions give me some receptions of course they're not giving me any receptions it's hard to find stuff this week man like nothing's out yet derrick hen Henry over 14 and a half receiving yards in this game.

I wanted to take the, I assumed it was over two receptions, but maybe I'm wrong with that. That's what it's listed at prize picks right now is two receptions. The receiving, it's two and a half at juice plus money on DraftKings. I'm guessing it's going to end up being two. I like the two. You get the push. I do think he gets to three,

but I'd rather have the out of having the push and getting my money back. But 14 and a half, he ends up with two receptions. He's beating that number anyway. So I'll just go over 14 and a half. It's at 365. It's sat out for a very long time at one and a half, but it was like minus 190 across the board.

I don't know. You just don't see that very often. And now they, of course, have moved it because people were probably still betting it, it looks like. So yeah so yeah plus money two and a half uh no matter your book so no problem with that another leg to the same game parlay that we were talking about there too so yeah limited with what we have currently um we see a couple of things that i want to look at i have no analysis to this um patrick mahomes over two and a half touchdowns. He's just going to throw three touchdowns.

I don't know. There's no rhyme or reason. He's just going to. I did look at it and actually even joke with Connor and I gave him some previous matchup against the Raiders stuff where he's throwing for like four, four, five. That's really noise.

I can't actually even do that with a straight face. He's just going to throw for three touchdowns here and you can get base plus money um or basically like minus 105 at like DraftKings I think from a home so he's gonna throw three touchdowns I don't know it's gonna happen yeah and if you get to what does he need to break the record 443. yeah I think it's 4 4 30. so alt total there. I wonder what that alt is. You can make money. There's a FanDuel special. FanDuel special 7 to 1.

That's what it is? Yeah, that's what I saw on FanDuel earlier in the week. Yeah, I don't even know if that site really exists, so I wouldn't put my money there. Passing alts. Let's see. Passing touchdown milestones. You know,

at some point there's too many markets, right? I don't know. You could argue that, uh, on the dropdown list. Yeah. Over 400 here is a plus five 50.

So there's nothing beyond 400 for him. Yeah. He's going to throw three scores. So let's just, just take that. Um, no analysis there. Some tackle looks. tackles were very depressing last week they they gave us um eight teams uh very limited 18 i imagine the week 18 market is pretty limited some of the stuff i gave out here

on the show i was never uh never even available we'll start with nate hobbs um he is a cornerback for the raiders um that will be a saturday night one hobbs has been like i don't think he's a very good corner been targeted a lot and gets a lot of tackles pretty consistently um i haven't projected for just a tad under seven he's got like he'll probably come out of like five and a half um i actually gave producer sal this one last time they played um and i think he's got like he'll probably come out of like five and a half um i actually gave producer sal this one last time they played um and i think he got in like the first quarter uh last time against the chiefs i think just again mahomes is going to be thrown a lot uh hobbs is basically the only every down corner that's playing for the raiders right now uh five and a half over

would be a look for hobbs and then two teams teams. If we get Broncos, I love the two Broncos linebackers, Alex Singleton, Josie Jewell. Those guys get a ton of tackles. They've had nothing to play for for weeks and they play every down for the most part. Jewell does. They'll both probably be a nine and a half. I'm fine with that. You get a lot of tackles against what I'm assuming is the backups against the Chargers here. Those guys will be heavily involved. Last time Singleton played the Chargers, he had 21 tackles, which is a pretty good day. Again, nine and a half, I'm going to take the over on both those guys.

And then we'll go back to our home field advantage scorekeeper stuff that we have with the Falcons. Rashad Evans and Richie Grant, if those happen to get popped, they did not last week. Evans will probably be a 9.5. I'll take him over. I have him just a tad under 11. Richie Grant, I would take up to 6.5. If you got a 6.5, it's probably plus money.

And I have him just a little bit over 7.5. Again, a good matchup good scorekeeper stuff those guys play every down and they've had nothing to play for so i'm not really worried about playing time there so but i imagine the tackle market's pretty limited this week i'm excited for playoff tackles to see what that market looks like to see if it's a little bit more robust because there's fewer games and maybe that's easier for them to handle so excited for that all right gents uh flying through because we have nothing really uh just look at more fun next week we do it on friday

everything will be out totally i can't wait yeah it's way different than this let's see what some of your questions are if you guys have any again let us know in the chat. Boyan wants to know my hat. Bettsburg's Golf. Really poorly designed hat by Andy. I'm not sure what he was thinking. This is like blue and this is green and they don't match and it's different from this. It's not great. I have mine right here.

Nice Bettsburg's hat right there by Pat. Yeah, there we are. That's a good hat. My Bettsburg's hat I like. This is I like this is you know just trying to rep it's a comfortable hat so at least that there's a beige version that's even worse than this so uh we don't have a merch store so I can't even pretend to try and sell it to you uh could not do that in good faith anyway but betsbertsgolf.com check it out uh all right are we interested in anything in the Detroit and Green Bay game? We didn't give anything from that game, and it's readily available.

So I would think that we don't have any strong leans in that one. Again, I think you can get into the narrative around that game meaning nothing for Detroit. I think we agree that this is probably an all-out scenario for the Lions regardless. Dan Campbell doesn't seem to have we're going to arrest our dudes kind of of vibes uh pat anything that you even considered for this one not really tell you the truth the only one i was looking at because it's available tyreek hill over 68 and a half receiving yards yeah i had i took tyreek last week 70 and a half which i thought was just way too low and we didn't get there um tougher matchup

against the jets this week but it's tyreek right i mean literally two catches he can he can do that so connor tyreek thoughts green bay you were talking we were talking earlier about the about jared golf unders potentially i mean any thoughts on that number shot down it was like 250 something uh originally now it's like in the low mid 240s uh i mean i i don't think there's a chance that So that number shot down was like 250-something originally. Now it's like in the low mid-240s. I mean, I don't think there's a chance that they get benched, but I do think there's a chance that they just like, you know, run the ball to them all a bunch or DeAndre Swift and kind of, you know,

play tough, but maybe they're not like going all out. I don't know. I mean, is there a reason you decided not to play that? Because you seemed pretty excited about it at first. No, I liked it. A site you might have heard of called Run the Sims had Jared Goff for a delicious 210 passing yards. That has been adjusted. Okay.

It is 213. Okay. Well, I can see I like the under, I lean under there. Again, you have small hands golf in the cold. They have been going over this again. A lot of times he's gone over this and I think that's probably what's inflating. A lot of the numbers is it's been home games. First time they matched up again, one game sample,

you don't want to make a lot out of it. Closely contested one score game, which I would assume this to probably be for the most part like golf got to like 157 in that game like it's green bay who's definitely playing way better defense so like um i need to go back and look a little bit more we were like right at the number like right around 260 which we tend to be um but it caught my attention when i saw that run the sims had uh you know him in like 210. So it's definitely worthwhile and looking a little bit more into. So, yeah, I mean, you can sell me on Amon Ra, St. Brown receptions and stuff like that.

But I don't know. I feel like Jair Alexander will probably chase him around a little bit. And he seems to be feeling himself currently based off of last week. So just nothing that really jumps out to me. Again, another question here from Lucas. Thoughts on A.J. Dillon on rushing yards? I feel like it's probably priced correctly in, like, the high to mid 40s. You guys agree?

I agree. Yeah, I mean, like, I always just struggle with these running backs on Green Bay because there was a while where there was a flip-flopping back and forth every week. It was like, who do they want to use? And then there was Aaron Jones got a little bit banged up, and then Dylan got a little bit banged up, and now it's just like been back and forth essentially all year.

So, yeah, I don't know. I think in a must-win game, like who do they go to? What's their strategy? Because the Lions were actually playing great run defense until they got, I mean, wrecked, like murdered by the Panthers, like in the trenches. And now, I don't know, maybe Green Bay finds that to be their path of least resistance and runs the wall a ton.

Maybe they come out and sling it because I think that's probably actually their best advantage. But I just have no idea, and I really don't feel that confident that Green Bay absolutely crushes the Lions either. So for me, it's just kind of like a big stay away from that game. Yeah, it's not. I just remember last time they played, I was so excited to bet Aaron Jones, and he sucked and then got hurt.

Yeah. And so I can't even be like, oh, he fell under the prop because he got hurt. No, he was like comfortably sucking pre-injury. And, yeah, he's been on the list, the do not prop list since it happened. So just too noisy of a backfield. I kind of agree. All right. That's a Sam. He subs the bets for his golf for the content. Not that he'll design hats.

Thank you, Sam. Hopefully we can do better with the hats. Saul wants to know about Scotty Scheffler live seven to one Pat golf is back, buddy. I do like, I mean, I'm,

I'm already invested this week, but I think if I was going to give a live look, that buddy. I do like, I mean, I'm, I'm already invested this week, but I think if I was going to give a live look, that would be the look like that's a, it's a pretty spicy number for a guy who lost. It was the work, basically the worst putter in the field, not named Billy Horschel, who was the worst in everything yesterday.

But I mean, he shot 700 and couldn't make a putt. That's usually a good sign. Pretty good. Yeah. There's a eight to ones out there as well. On a sky seven would be actually the worst uh worst of the number i'm looking at when hideki wins and i cash my big

money you know that's gonna happen but i'll just root for morikawa since he's in first already i like the deck i did not pull the trigger but i i liked hideki i thought it was a bad number comparative to where he should be so you think that hideki at 45 against seamus power at 35 was an incorrect number on someone it's not great not great considering he won in hawaii last year there's you know again i think it's the or that gusty decky matsuyama not seamus power yeah i think the augusta corollary is probably a little bit of a stretch but you talk about like uneven lies and some of that stuff and i don't know hideki seems to like playing at augusta so connor did you tail any uh golf picks this week are you uh invested no no no no this week you're just

waiting for uh akshay batia to get back in the mix yeah love akshay batia i might need to buy like i mean i guess do golfers have they have merch but they don't have like you know like like what can i buy to support akshay batia like a hat or something or what do you think nft probably i might be out there that might be drawing the line if akshay bati is a big nft guy i might have to withdraw my support uh connor's best friends has a uh he is a batiaia And so we're blindly supporting Akshay here based off of Name alone so Good as always all right that's it No need to drag it out for an hour because we don't

Have anything else for you watch the market Slow to release you'll probably see some more Stuff here and Friday evening Saturday It just is What we deal with at the Tail end of the season so thanks for riding with us and hanging out Again we'll be going through the Super Bowl. To Pat's point, we'll have a lot more next week

because typically on a Friday afternoon for a playoff slate, have a lot. We'll have three games on Saturday, three games on Sunday. We should have the majority of the board posted by this time next week. So good stuff as always. Pat, tell everyone where they can find and subscribe

and listen to all your stuff. The Pat Mayo Experience podcast on Apple or Spotify, or just go on over to the Mayo Media Network on the YouTubes. You find all my stuff up there. Kind of more props for both of us still to come. And yeah, our subscribers will be hanging out Sunday morning in the Discord. We'll probably have a little bit more in-depth thoughts around some of the stuff that has shaped in the market in the 48 hours since this recording into Sunday. So again, 444.com slash plans. No promo code.

Jump right in. $34 to the end of the season and jump in the Discord. We'll hang out with you there. So for Pat and Connor and Ryan, we'll see you all next week. Thanks, everyone. Yeah!