Move The Line - Week 3 Betting Recap & Week 4 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: September 23, 2025

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Hello and welcome to move the line. Presented by Sharpstack. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here as always by Connor Allen unpacking a little bit of week three, talking about week four. I also want to discuss some futures, divisional prices, award markets. What's going on, buddy? Yeah, not much. I'm coming off just an absolute bloodbath of a week three.

You know, it was, it was a, tough one, you know, but it happens. It happens. You know, it's like the last two weeks, two weeks ago was fine. This week was just, I mean, who, it felt like everything that could go wrong went wrong. You know, the Falcons lose 30 to zero to the Panthers. Like, we had to Pennix under pass attempts. Trayvion Henderson ends up being the workhorse because there's three bumbles there. Kenneth Walker, I get in heavy. My bags are packed at 54 and half rushing yards. I'm blasting the, all the plus EV bros, you know, from Odds Jam, who We thought, I got a 56, 57, closes at 80 rushing yards.

He is, I think, what, 16 carries for 38 yards, something like that, 35 yards of penalties called back on his runs. I'm not tilted at all, you know, like, even then, like even 16 carries for 50, 60 yards, whatever he would have gotten at that point. That's still shitty outing. Like, that's, but it would have, you know, kept us afloat. So, super tilting week. Glad I didn't play anything last night.

I was, you know, again, enjoyed the game as a. spectator and i'm sure we'll dive into that but ready to get back on the wagon i think thursday it could be some good opportunities so um you know i should have known that it was going to be a wonky week with the thursday uh devon eight chain stuff again another massive lcelv spot early 29 and a half that closed like almost 40 receiving yards and then all the scorekeeper rush attempts uh like all that stuff just got real wonky on Wednesday. And it's like, there are signs here. There are signs to probably limp into the weekend a little bit. It kind of did. I actually did have a lower volume weekend, but I was with

you. Like, we were waiting for that Thursday report for Seattle. If we were going to get another, you know, D&P for for Charbonnet. We knew it wasn't going to be a play that we were going to be able to share for subscribers per se. You know, we tried to do our best to be able, you know, say, hey, this is kind of what we're trying to do. But I think we all had money. We just started sitting waiting to hit submit. We get that DMP Sharbs, fire away. And yeah, I mean, just runs so, so bad. Getting so good and then just run so bad.

It's just going to happen. It's going to happen. Like, it's just the nature of the beast. So you're just going to have, you know, variants and game states that change. And all of a sudden it doesn't really matter how good you see LVS. It just get absolutely handed to you. It's funny because this is now, I think maybe the second or third time

that Kenneth Walker is just, I mean, cost me, like, serious amounts of money. There was, like, a time last year where I was, I used to do like round robins with Dalton Cates every week. And we had like a four-leggar and we hit all the other three alts. It was like 80 bucks, one is 10 grand. 80 yards, one is 10 grand each. 100 yards, one is like 50 grand each.

He had 78 yards at halftime. He finished with 77 yards in the game. And they're winning. They were winning. Like, and I was on a plane. I was, I got on the plane. He had 78 yards. And I was like, oh, man, I'm going to come.

wake up and I'm going to land and be rich. You know, I'm going to be, you know, this is going to be great. And I won nothing. Well, I still went a little bit because you round robin the other, whatever, three legs, but talk about disappointing. I mean, Jesus. So this guy, I mean, he's banned forever. I'm never bedding on this motherfucker again.

Like, I mean, I'm so, I don't care if he's prop is 15 and, you know, Charbonnet's out. I'm not bad in it. Just kidding. I would bet that. Hit in the under. Yeah. Yeah.

Hate him. Yeah. It was rough. Yeah, that's it's going to happen. No excuses. Be better. No one, no one cares.

We're just, you know, sharing what happened. We're not necessarily complaining. Oh, we are complaining. But you know what I mean? Like, just sharing the nature of our experience through it. It happens. It happens. You tell me that's the game state for last night's game.

I'm banging Zay 67.5 over all day long, right? And just a ghost. Like three minutes left in the third gets his first. target or whatever i mean just insane insane way or was it just like lower play volume because the lines like a nine 10 minute drive or like what was it so you know having and i watched i tried to watch it back this morning i haven't fit i didn't finish it felt like we're not going to see it play on the data in terms like first read it felt like he was looking for him as i felt like he knew we got to get zay involved um and then just it on the back end you know we can't you know didn't

have all 22 yet um so you know it feels like he was getting a little bit of extra attention but yeah just didn't didn't happen again i'm going to make that bet every time and i think that's the important part of this process is when you know that line opens for a chain and 29 and a half with his involvement in that passing game and you know what we expect to see that game play out is double digit underdogs on the road i'm making that play we're making the kenneth walker play hit at 54.5. Yeah, totally. I'm, uh, you know, I tweeted out. I put Zay on a milk box, which is actually, you know, I was thinking too as I'm doing that. I'm like, let's say a fairly dated reference as we move into 2025. Like that was a thing back in the day. You buy a cart

and a milk and there'd be like a picture of a missing child on it. Um, that's obviously not anything that we would have, probably an experience that you've never had being significantly younger than I am. But that's a thing. So what are you talking about? I'm like, I'm like, I'm trying to go to look at it. So I may, I, I tweeted out a picture of a milk carton, which is this is great. I was thinking about it when I was actually making it when I was tweeting this. I think Connor doesn't even know what this reference is.

This is pretty funny. Yeah, this is good. I have no, I mean, I, yeah, don't, don't know all this. Yeah. In the 70s and 80s, again, not 70s, you know, the 80s. But that was the thing. Like you would actually, there would be times where you would actually on the side of a milk cart and they'd put a missing child's like picture.

like if you've seen this kid let us know kind of a thing which is wild um so it's just basically like i have you seen this person uh you know meme and i'm like this is actually nowhere someone that is like 30 or younger no point of reference for side of a milk carton uh which is just kind of an interesting thought that we no yeah not at all other talking about like serial boxes like they'd have like players on like cereal boxes you know as like that's all i got but this is funny this is a funny tweet that's yeah you use AI to make this like how did you make this yeah I know I used AI to make it yeah that's great thanks to AI so yeah

rough rough week but hey we're gonna do we're gonna get back on the wagons we can do we're gonna be back in the wagon for week four and we're gonna do that here now I want to remind folks to check out Sharpstack it's our new suite of betting tools over at 444 EV tool is awesome I actually had a really good week limping in with some stuff from the EV tool probably should lean on that a little bit heavier. Again, it's just one of the many tools there is Pickham tool, Arb tool. Prop screens alone, I think, are, is, you know, huge help. Lots of middles there. I need to probably explore a little bit more, too. Free seven-day trial available for you right now for 4.com

slash plans. You use promo code MTL. You can get 25% off if you subscribe and take advantage of that. Again, gets you access to everything that we do at 4-4. Get you in the Discord for all the picks, articles, tools, all that stuff. So again, free seven-day trial. Check it out let us know if you have any questions we'll love your feedback continue to add things i know even on the odd screen today there's now a bet type summary where i can look at uh both the sides and the total in one look which i absolutely love doing instead of having the toggle but back and forth which is which is great so again don't forget to come back remove the line prop drop on friday three p m eastern a connor myself high slop building uh parlays uncorrelated parlays

given some prop bets uh again wherever you listen to podcast 4-4-4 live on the YouTube channel. So biggest takeaway, week three, what do you think back? What do you think was something that's going to be important moving forward or something that was an anomaly? Thoughts on week three. Yeah, I have like three to four big takeaways. I would say, you know, my biggest ones, I'm not buying the Panthers just being all of a

sudden back after beating the Falcons, you know. Weird game. Touched on a little bit on Mayo's show, but it was kind of like the two-miss field goals, put them in a weird game script. and then so like you know could have easily been seven six they go into half time 10 zero come out pick six um like it's just you know it's really tough and then so that point is 17 zero and then you're basically just trailing um the running game was fine but not you know great and panics just played one of his worst games i've seen you know as a pro so um i'm not buying the the

that the panthers are that good uh they didn't still i mean they looked better offensively but not awesome and then the falcons i think are an interesting bounce back can it this week against the commanders potentially so i don't know i think that's kind of that was one of my bigger ones i don't know if you had any thoughts on them yeah i you said the game got out of whack uh i would say that bryce young did a good job at getting the ball out quickly comparatively they brought the house they blitzed 63 percent of time and didn't really get home very much which compared to what happened in week two for the falcons where they blitzed the ton and got home a lot against Minnesota.

I understand why they would take that game plan in. It's not like Bryce made them pay. Again, he just was smart getting the ball out quickly. So, yeah, I agree. I still think that the Panthers are one of the worst teams of the league. It's a nice bounce back spot for the paths this week to get them to come in after the Pats played with their food. I don't even know what to say about what the Patriots did.

To be actually even competitive to turn the ball over six times is crazy. easy but yeah i'm not buying the panthers resurgence here and i think it's probably a decent bounce back spot here five and a half six or so on new england for for week four which i think is it's pretty interesting uh what other week three thoughts yeah yeah i was waiting for the patriot stuff here um because i mean we're 10 minutes in and we didn't get there yet um it was tough man it was a tough hang it was a top hang i was pissed too because it like like they didn't throw the like the steelers didn't have to throw the ball anymore because so the dk mackaff didn't hit. Like, Kenneth, you know, like it would put Kenneth Gainwell well out of reach if they

had to throw anymore. Henderson wouldn't have got as many carries if they wouldn't stop fumbling. So, like, it totally messed up so many of my bets. Yeah, I mean, and the Steelers just like, I don't think they're a very good team probably at this point right now. They're not playing that well. But hey, I mean, you got like, they forced the fumbles technically. I mean, I don't know if that was a skill or just luck, but like, which almost certainly some amount of luck, but I don't know, maybe there's a ball walking team. But anyways, another takeaway, I'm not going to overreact to the Bears' offensive output against the Cowboys. I don't want to say it was expected because nothing can be expected from the Bears' offense, I think, at this point. But it was definitely

a good sign. But it's not like, oh, yeah, the Bears just figured it out. You know, they're good to be going forward. Like, they're going to be fine. I think that is, and they have a decent landing spot here, though, against the Raiders, who I don't think are a very good defense either. So I think we're going to see a good but not, like, nowhere near kind of game that we saw from Caleb last week. And then they have the buy. So, like, coming off of that game, I'm not expecting them to be some elite offense, but I do think that they can be competent, two and two heading to the buy.

I mean, that'll help a lot of people forget about the early season. Like, it's over, you know, like that was a lot of the thoughts in Chicago was like, oh, and two, Caleb's not the guy Ben Johnson's like overrated the defense sucks the defense does suck like that's like still the defense definitely sucks yeah you know injuries too right so it's really hard to make up for

you know your two best corners being out and good teams will be able to pick on them still for sure so I'm with you like defense sucks because they're injured not they're actually not bad they're just bad because they have three best players out pretty much yeah it's tough yeah I think that that's another good spot i think we're just going to have to put in the context of what we see every week coming out of dallas right and just kind of remember to find our common ground coming out of that and it's

like all right well at least you took advantage of it that was kind of our problem with some of the other stuff like that's i'm hanging on that with like the the jaguars for instance like or even like the falcons maybe i need to you know to figure out how to understand what happened last week against a pretty bad panthers even though that game got out of whack as we said like you got a take advantage of those softer matchups so green bay will take advantage i'm sure of the dallas match at this week he's got worse i mean no cd for a couple of weeks you know interior offensive line issues for dallas it's it is they're down real bad real quick here in dallas so uh that's going to get that's going to get tricky but yeah the bears look i mean marcus

maryota they had a bunch of explosives in that game uh calib still wanted to push the ball down the field there could be some real chunk plays back and forth between Bears Raiders here this week. Bears kind of a little bit of different numbers out there. It's kind of hovering around to pick them a little bit on each side if you want to shop that around. 47 and a half, 48 and a half to total. So that's another one kind of kicking around some key numbers.

I think it's going to be interesting. I think Hunter, our side's a total guy, played over in that spot at 48, which I understand. And again, there's still 47 and a half's out there too. So, yeah, I'm with you, cautiously optimistic that there is some good coming out of Chicago and Ben Johnson and Caleb when they get in the soft landing spots. Dallas very much is that. And I still believe that the Raiders are that too. Yeah.

And I think, too, when you like, when we go back to the beginning of the season and then like our preview, like I think that we were like, okay, we're cautiously optimistic on the offense. Like, they're going to be better than they were last year, which they already are. Like, they're already definitely better. And like, they're going to take steps forward. Like if Caleb keeps getting better throughout the season, yeah, maybe they win seven games. maybe they win six games like you know like maybe they win nine games if if things break right they're the end of season like that's all possible um but i think the key is like is the offense looking better are they actually moving the ball and then from there like i don't know like you

have a you at you at least know where you're going like you're on a you know the tracks like in moving in a direction whereas before it just seemed like kind of lost and like well are we starting over again like if it's like a complete disaster basically yeah yeah and that's that would be a complete disaster and there's so much awesome possible it's still possible it's true yeah like Mitch Trubisky had a great game against Tampa Bay when he was like at 2018 he threw for like they scored like 50 points on him you know it was like it happened Bears fans do not want to hear that you invoking the name of MVP Mitch to I mean contextualize Caleb that's the well don't even get me started on the fields

you know people got the field slapies because you know that's like he had well like one or two good games but I felt pretty good that he was not the guy very quickly. But I don't know. We'll see. Caleb is fine. He'll get the hang of it. You have a more?

Yeah, one more. There's some rumors swirling that Jackson Dart is going to be starting this week or next week, basically. Not surprising. Russ lit up the same Cowboys team that we're talking about in like negative game script. Again, not surprising there has been hot garbage in the other two games. got your rushing prop though you know he did get your rushing prop which is awesome I saw him scramble a couple of times and I'm like hell yeah new got his got his prop because this guy sucks I mean he was awful um he like they're bringing in jackson

dart for these RPOs and like more play calls and I'm like what do we do it just put them out there like what are you got to lose at this point you're o and three your team looks basically lifeless outside of the the Dallas game who also is just like dead again yeah contextualizing that like right like can't really give them in at least you took advantage of it but you don't earn a lot of credit moving forward out of that as you start to play competitive NFL teams chargers are going to beat the piss out of them some six point favorites on the road I think chargers are going to win by like 20 I mean this is like this is going to be a rough one I think yeah I think that number actually has baked in like chargers aura on it you know what I

mean like this feels like a spot where like chargers fans are finally like can we are we allowed to feel this is this actually something going on we're three and all three in the division things are kind of clicking it seems like our guy is taking a step there's all these good vibes happening and it's like are we going to go to the east coast and get our slots in the face by the giants like yeah i don't i don't know i agree i think it's they're a really good football team and should be able to handle the giants no problem so yeah it does have this somewhat weird like you know west coast traveling east you know like weird game maybe russ plays fine or maybe they start jackson dart like i don't know i mean yeah all possible if it's russ starting i'm with you right the unknown of the juju

that can come out of uh jackson dart i would understand why someone would have a little trepidation but i don't know i'm kind of buying the chargers and that's maybe another one of my takeaways yeah for this and part of it is like again the three the three Three in O is great, but three in the division is just really impactful as we get to. I still think we think the division's pretty strong. We touched on the chiefs extensively last week, not ready to bury the chiefs per se. You still think Denver's a really good football team. I haven't looked great offensively yet, but I still think this is a playoff team for sure.

The Raiders are going to be competitive occasionally. So to be able to start three and O and get those three wins in the division is really, really nice. and then it opens up schedule-wise. And it might be a team that on paper defensively is just doesn't jump off the page at you. But we have like a year plus now, right? A year and three games of Harbaugh and Jesse Minter just dialing up really good defense. It's a great running defense of their top three. And like I think they're tops in success rate against top three in EPA per play against,

finding ways to really win. hopefully they can kind of stabilize until calio mac can come back but uh and then coinciding with the feels like a leap right like lad's still really good QJ is a guy now apparently right at least not an absolute bum you can just bury underson i'd feel really good about moving forward let you speak on that but like no no i mean i mean i was wrong there another l like i mean he just well i mean we kind of got i mean there was like a 40 yard catch in the beginning that you just like the whistle didn't blow and they let him go. But he still would have gotten there anyways.

Like it's, yeah, he's like the featured, feature part of their office. He's kind of year three, year three, he's figured four, year three or four.

He's figuring it out. I don't know. I mean, Devante Adams was trashed his rookie year too and ended up being awesome. Like, he had like the worst success rate against like coverage

in Matt Harmon's reception perception in history as a rookie. Like dude who's just not getting open and then comes out and it's just awesome now. So yeah, I mean, definitely not been any of his under's anymore. I mean, guys just seems to be dialed in. But yeah, I agree with the Chargers stuff.

Like, it's, they're a good team. And then also, I don't know if we want to touch on any Bronco stuff. Bo Nix's metrics are awful. It's bad. The second worst past or third worst passing success rate, I think right now, uh, 6.6a. A dot, negative EPA, negative completion percentage over expectation. It's not good. No. Do you, do you, are you worried about moving forward? I mean, we have a full season of him making the most out of, like, very little, you know, a couple of games early against, you know, or the Chargers. And, yeah, I mean, like, I'm not, it's not time to, like, sound the alarms of like it's over,

but it's, I mean, it's definitely not a good start, you know. Yeah. Yeah, I still believe the roster is so good that they're a playoff team, considering that the AFC is kind of a mess. And, you know, that back end of the playoff pitcher is definitely there for, for them to go out and grab. considering like we really haven't seen much regression from the defense like they're going to regress a little bit because some of the stuff they were doing last year was insane but still a really really really strong defensive unit they're really not even using jade a baron yet much i'm sure just getting him comfortable it's another weapon that they can use in a lot of different ways so yeah i still think that they're going to be they're going to be around but the charger stuff is real like they're i mean what's the price they're i think significant favor is almost like minus 180 to win yeah they're minus 180 to win the aFC west just wow has the kansas city chiefs in it we're in week four and uh the charges are minus 180 to win the division on draft kings just looking there i'm

sure if you pricing around it's got to be in that range 50 mgm is best price i'm seeing or minus 155 fandool but still like that's pretty hefty chiefs plus 270 dk is best price uh if you want to buy low on them um i mean they're going to they're going to figure it out i'm i'm pretty confident they're going to win plenty of games and um i mean they somehow almost gave the way to the game of the giants there for a little bit with uh the strip sack strip you know again like after they're from homes but yeah i was pretty confident they're going to find a way to win that game no matter what um it was yeah russ was lifeless yes he's not long for it and i did you get down on that there was i know that jackson dart prop in the preseason and the games played or yeah it was

four and a half starts was that on underdog um so yeah four and a half starts um because they were like basically putting like they're they have a week 14 buy so it was like basically does he come in after the buy in week 14 uh and i was you know pounding the we were pounding the table there's no shot that russ lasts so long um because they get yeah they get the chargers this week and then i think after that it's still really tough or the saints charges and saints who also really, really suck. Saints are pretty rough. Yeah, it's not that surprising, I guess,

but I mean, Seattle was absolutely blew the doors off that game. Yeah, we expected that 17. Pinnacles out to 17 for the Saints' Bills game this week, which is just. You laying it? Oh, my gosh. No, but I would never take the other side either. right like it's just no it's just not my style of uh of action for sure but yeah i mean

this is a matter of like it's just a backdoor situation right like do they take their foot off the gas and does josh sit in the fourth and on the road i mean on the road i mean it's it's it's a tough ask uh you know maybe we can get some full line rattleer stuff and maybe we'll look at some you know rattler unders if they're priced as full lines because we got a little bit of Tyler Shuck late in that Seattle game you can see that a little bit here if things get wonky again so putting that on your radar if it's not already you know if you get two and a half quarters of rattler unders would be a nice little nice little look so yeah that would be that would be good I think the problem is that they might throw the ball so much so like

I like I like the under on that um yeah it's just one of those things we're going to have to see what the number comes out because like if it's price is a full game then yeah definitely going to play some speculative unders, you know what I mean? Correct. I feel like we're in that range now for Rattler and Russ in particular, where you can possibly start to play those just specatively because you have a chance that they just, you know, play a half. Parlay.

Yeah, your Brian's good point here. Bill's all against the spread. We get it. So play Bills minus 20 and a half or 21 and a half, play Rattler pick and then, you know, Rattler under and you parlay at all. just like that's like does he get benched basically midgame parlay which are fun you know I think those are fun fun for me I don't know if anyone else enjoys betting on that kind of shit but I do I think it's fun yeah I mean you lay on the plane on that you feel pretty good about

yourself you know I think we got one last year didn't we or we were maybe I think we did get one last year we got a mid mid game benching one I don't remember who it was but those are fun those are good ones yeah look it makes sense right we have a coach in New York who second week in a row is reluctant to put his stamp behind his current starter you know it's in new york as well let's not forget what's going to like the crowd is going to start to get real rowdy um it's a coach that's still trying to hold on to his job like there's a lot of of things here where even if rusk gets named starter be real tricky for him to hold on to to this one so there's a a twitter rando reporting that it's going to happen already um he's gotten

is no credibility it's like i mean well he works for some like small media company but he has no like real credibility um so who knows twitter randos are like they're about like maybe 10 you know 5% on stuff it's not actually reported you know publicly so what can go wrong i mean if you're i'm just trying to think if that was me right you're trying to gain a little clout you you throw some stuff against the wall and if something hits you know you're only we need to watch this guy he obviously knew something right so it's just like there's no downside for someone like that throwing that out there i'm not saying he's wrong i'm just saying like just from pure no i can tweet i'd be like the team is making you know considering making a change here like we'll

know more tomorrow or something like that or like very likely to make a change and then i'd be like oh well you know they're pushing it to next week you know something like yeah yeah follow for more updates yeah right exactly um maybe i should start a random account and just do that you know just start breaking some news, some fake news, but you give yourself outs, you know? It'll be the next pretty Ricky. Do you want to talk week four, or do you want to look at some futures stuff?

Let's, I could buzz through some week four stuff real quick. We already touched on a couple. So it's like, let's buzz through some week four stuff. I think Seattle Money Line on Thursday, really interesting. Definitely in on that. Even if some of their guys are still out, I think we're, yeah, on the same page there.

Atlanta at home we touched on, Charters minus six, maybe wait for Russ for start news if there is any there um colts plus four i know we're opo on i know you like the rams we made a bet on mayo's show there you know just like a friendly you know monday morning mayo show bet um which i think will be a fun game to watch another good another great litmus test for the colts i'm like if they're actually real or not um and then uh i think the ravens minus two and a half are an interesting bilo but man they're just they're and kind of slapped around a little bit by some of these good teams, huh?

Lamar did not look good. It was rough. The defensive stuff has not been as good. I'm not just small sample stuff. I'm just not a buyer that the defense isn't good. But they haven't been. They haven't played particularly well. Like they were gashed at times in the ground.

You can, they didn't get home and golf was able to pick them apart a little bit. I felt like they, I was a little nervous because, again, I felt like a couple of the injuries, Kyle Van Nuoy was out, Nandoah in the Bucke in the middle, who's, again, one of their best run stoppers and interior pass rush presence out of that lineup last night, I think it made a pretty big impact.

And I think the Lions, more so than anything, my biggest takeaway is that we kind of need to put the Packers Week 1 game in its own tier. The Lions are still very much an NFC contender. Yeah, we didn't touch on that. I did some more research on it as well. I thought, I think maybe Ryan

heath from fantasy points brought it up it was like after the lions fired anthony lynn uh in like twenty two dan campbell took over as the play caller and immediately they went from like blast in play action rate to like 10th and then like ben jonson came in and it was like similar and then obviously he like helped elevate things even more i think that's pretty clear that ben jons is a pretty good coach still but that like i personally dress drastically underrated like dan campbell's impact on the offense because I think he still is his hand in that like it's like yeah I don't know if john or john mortons is a really good coach and i just underestimated that but i think that based on some of that like you know dug a little bit more like it seems like there's definitely an impact

there still and so yeah i mean the lions are still a good team uh definitely underrated them coming in the season to be honest yeah and look still really good players it's fine funny how we do it like we want to give ben johnson a ton of credit and he deserves his flowers for what he's been able to do and there's a reason that teams were tripping over themselves to bring him in or you could have had the Carolina job they really wanted him no you could have the commander's job they really wanted him no he held on for something that he wanted so that that happened for a reason at the same time like we can have really good coordinators and i think we just don't give him any talent and then you know all of a sudden it's like well it's not really indicative of the scheme they just

don't have guys that can make place or separate or complete passes and you know so So whether it's Morton or not, whenever it's continued, but Dan Campbell still has his finger on. They still have Jared Goff, who is an above average quarterback in this league, Amon Ra, Jamo, Gibbs, Leaning on Gibbs Moore, and that duo, I mean, Demont still has the juice too, right? I mean, dude, this is crazy. Like, I mean, he got caught from behind, though.

That was funny. It's like, that was, like, the biggest knock on him. And, like, he didn't have, like, the breakaway speed. But he's just, like, so hard to tackle, you know, and, like, so shifty. like can make guys miss um so i was i've got to have sony michel you know remember the graphic it was uh you know feet of say quay i was athleticism of sony michel dude i i i was like i remember i used to write like a dynasty column for rhodo world back in the day and i had david montgomery over josh jacobs like in my thing which you know probably doesn't look that great in hindsight

but like it was like them too clearly and then i don't remember who else and i got so much hate for it and i was like you know david montgomery is awesome guys like he's gonna be the man you know he's he's he's a great pick um and he's he's awesome like he's just such a good player i'm a big fan yeah he's really never not been good right he just it's been solid yeah you know you know could use david montgomery the bears the bears could absolutely use david montgomery right now a guy to get them four yards when they need four yards and then maybe pick up an extra here or there they don't need a guy who can maybe get them 20 or negative two seven times in a row which is what they have right now on DeAndre Swift.

I mean, he sucks. Like, I just, like, every week, I'm, like, I'm, like, dude, this guy blows. Like, I, like, I, I can't fathom how bad he is. Like, he just won't do the simple stuff well. You don't miss an opportunity to dunk on DeAndre Swift. I don't understand. Like, I just don't get it.

They gave them all, what, 14 times last week? Um, he looked awful. Like, he, like, look, what's so bad. Like, occasionally he has juice, but he just doesn't make the right decision, like, 90% of the time on where to go. Yeah, it's not great. I thought Rochon could really carve in it out, but that seems to not be happening either too.

Yeah, tough. I'm going to be over. Tough scene. Yeah, I'm with you on some of that. I think the Seattle money line, like you said, on Thursday night is a really good luck not buying what we've seen. The Cardinals. I don't know how anyone could.

We got an early morning game Minnesota. Yeah. We saw this game last year. We saw Minnesota against Aaron Rogers in Europe early, and it was like 17 of them before the first quarter. I saw enough of the Steelers last week. I don't understand this at two and a half. Give me Minnesota 1,000 percent.

I will lay the two and a half. I'm okay with a three bookmakers, minus three plus 100, but two and a half is readily available across the market. A little juicy, but Minnesota, two and a half, I think, is, I don't care if it's Carson To me, this is Flores against the unscripted 15 of Arthur Smith and Aaron Rogers. They were really good in the first 15, their first scripted part of the game. It was a disaster outside of that. And I think they can tee off and give Rogers nightmares.

So I'm in on the Vikings for sure. Dude, I agree with you on paper and like everything I think about this. I just get a weird feeling that like Carson Wentz, You know, didn't have to do much, like, I don't know. I can just get a weird feeling that bedding on Carson Wentz might end up hurting me, something in London. I agree. If you play this game, I don't know, even in Pittsburgh, maybe at home, I don't know.

Like, the Vikings probably win more times than not. I mean, the Steelers just keep chugging along and finding a way to be scrappy or not scrappy-induced. It's like a very weird vibe. It's like, I think it's probably, the Steelers just might be that team for me this year where I'm like, it's not betting on this team. Like, this is a very, they're going to lose. to the worst team in the league and then beat someone randomly good that's kind of always been the steelers i feel like they even when they were really good back in like the you know triple

b's day and like when they were yep you know firing all cylinders they would always have that game where they were you know that they parley parley killer you know they're eight and a half point favorites they should roll and they go and get absolutely destroying it's like what the heck happens um yeah so i just i'm not buying it i like the defense i think it's better than it's played but they also just kind of like the bears i mean it's worse than it's better than the bears but they also have had cluster injuries and that's a problem for them right now too and that was kind of masked a little bit last week with turning new england over multiple times in scoring position and you know inflating kind of what happened there so yeah buying

minnesota and i get it i'm not like banging the table for cars and wands this is just like i just i don't see i mean just you get there they should get there run the ball get out of there like I don't know the defense can create some points right like you know pick six or strip sack or something that happened we paid a favor for what happened in New England last week so yeah and on in on the Rams as well actually this is not even like an anti Colts take honestly like again we're on the opposite side of that game but I think the Colts are viable I think there's some stuff here that's real but I think the Rams and how the Rams win and what the Rams do well.

It's a bad matchup for what's going on with the Colts right now. Kenny Moore is still one of the best corner, slot corners in the league. He's out. I got hurt late in that game against Tennessee. They had to pull Mike Hilton off the scrap heap who got cut in Miami. Mike Hilton. Yeah, exactly.

Miami signed him when they had a bunch of injuries. He couldn't make the team and they cut him. Now the Colts are dusting them off this week to play slot corner against Puka. So yeah, I like Puga and I like the Rams here in the spot feeding their alphas.

So that's kind of my. I was like, man, this guy's been around for a while. I had no idea like where I was like, man, this Mike Hilton guy's been around for a minute. And so yeah, it's crazy.

He's just, I mean, he should probably not be in the league anymore. Yeah, a long time in Pittsburgh, a lot of time in Cincinnati. And yeah, they moved on.

Willing tackle, you know, kind of the early tackle days, Mike Hilton was a dog. I know we got some nice, nice playoff, my kilton numbers back in the Cincinnati's a couple of years back. So last one, then I touch on some futures and award stuff. Browns and Lions, what are we making the Browns?

Touched on a little bit with Mayo. Again, the Lions are obviously looked decent, but like that was kind of 10, 10 and a half and look-aheads. Lions look pretty good. But now we're like, we're like 8.5. Thoughts on Browns or Browns Lions. Yeah, Brian mentioned here, too, the Brown's good. I think the Brown's defense is awesome.

Like top two, three unit right now, they're playing like it. The Brown's offense really still sucks. I mean, Quinchot Judkins, I think, has given them some juice, which I think will help Flacko in the long run. But it felt like any time they tried to drop back and pass, like he was just, no one was open. He was under pressure. If he did have a clean pocket, he made a bad throw. Like, it was just not clicking at all. And maybe that was, might be maybe a Packers thing.

And the Packers have played awesome defense for the most part this season. So, yeah, I think that, but I mean, the Lions also, I think their defense has played pretty well despite, you know, a couple of injuries. They're getting pressure, though. Hutchinson's obviously key in that factor. And so, like, I don't think these things get really easier here. So, like, if you made me pick a side, I'm probably picking the Browns, but I don't love it. Yeah, yeah, that's fair. Injuries, too, along the offensive line for Cleveland makes it a little bit tricky move before.

They lost Aquan Jones for the season. And so, yeah, Hutch, Hodge is a beast. He complicates some award markets, too, which could be a lot more fun if he would just chill out. But it's just, it seems to not be his style. Are you, I mean, I don't know how I missed this in my initial run through here. Niners, minus three against the Jags. I know the Niners are just injured to hell, but like, I want to fade the Jags, man. I think they just suck.

They just, every time I watch them, I'm come away so unimpressed. I agree. That's the last one that I wanted to say, too. is just, I'm with you. Just finding ways to fade the Jags. Their defense has been better. The run defense in particular has been really good. I don't know what to make of that.

I think there could be some schedule-based stuff in there. Like there's some injuries on the offensive line for the Panthers, who they played in week one. And there are obviously offensive line issues and run game issues for the Texans. So I think there's some inflated schedule stuff that's telling us that the Jags run defense is better than it is. I think heading into the week, though, they were the only team that hadn't missed a tackle heading into the league or into the week.

So, you know, they're playing clean at least, which is good to see. I'm just not like a believer that this is suddenly, you know, one of the top five or ten run defenses in the league. So, yeah, I want to find ways to fade the Jags, even though just an absolute mass unit for the Niners, like every single week, losing a key contributor here for extended period of time. Yeah, you want to talk about a unit that's like... I mean, talk about a break here.

You play the Panthers. Then you play the Bengals with Jake Browning, who you let up 240 yards and two touchdowns, too. We have three picks, so your EPA looks pretty good. And then you get a soft landing spot against Houston. So, like, yeah, their metrics are like, yeah, third in success rate right now allowed. Second EPA per play.

Yeah. I'm just not, I'm not buying that at all. I mean, the Niners, yeah, I'm going to bet the Niners minus three. Like, you know, I don't, I don't, they're already banged up. They're trodden out nobody's and I think they'll find a way to win by three or more. Yeah, Purdy's back. CMC looks solid. You know, Pierceall, I think is a guy, whether Jennings is in there or not.

Like, they're, they're good enough to find ways. And, yeah, I want to, I want to fade the Jags for sure. So I'm with you on that one's a good call. Three, three out there in Circa, Bookmaker. There's some three and a half of Caesars. There's some three still out there, which I think is. good. I think we start to move towards three and a half. Fandall's already there. A few others

are already there. The last one, Packers minus six and a half still at some points against Dallas. At Dallas though, which again sucks, but I don't, I don't care. Like, they're just so much better of a team in like every facet.

Yeah, I mean, they just, they ran in a tough match of last week. The Browns did exactly what they needed to do against the Packers, plus got really, really lucky at the end. And the Cowboys are really bad it feels like just an over adjustment on power rankings right this feels like if even if they win in like sneak one out the packers are probably like eight eight and a half we're on the other side of seven i don't know like and it feels like this dallas yeah and brian

in the chat too agrees like this dallas crowd could turn on this team real quick especially if like micah starts doing his thing against a beat up offensive line micah's been awesome not surprising but like it has magnified everything that we thought it could happen in terms of all this other young talent on that defense that just gets everything gets a little bit easier like Rashon Gehry's got four and a half sacks Devante Wyatt another first round pick a couple years ago it's been awesome in the interior I think he's like top 10 in pressure rate for all linemen not just interior defensive line or you know so he's been real good so there's just the trickle-down effect that's real I'd snatch those six and a half before

they're gone so you seem to like more sides and totals than normal this week i think it's an interesting week yeah i i mean i i don't know but it's just kind of one of those weeks where i feel like we're in a good point of like i i feel like i have a pretty good grasp on who most of these teams are at this point and i think that there were some wonky results last week that we can like fade or lean into even heavier yeah yeah good call all right uh some future stuff um buzz through some of these you can you know circle back or i'll do the nfc first just a divisional favorites minus 220 for the eagles and i'm going to reference draft kings because i have it open you can look at anything i'm probably shop around you probably will find some discrepancies

but um eagles minus 220 to win the division any thoughts on anyone expanding into you know threatening there with the commanders two and a quarter obviously the cowboys and giants are dead but you feel like eagles at 220 are probably the right side yeah i mean i don't have much on the commanders honestly like they would have to meet them just like continuing to hang on without jaden and then figuring it out but i still think the eagles are like a way better team overall so 200 i don't know maybe short to be honest you might be short yeah charges one's interesting minus again like you said 55 or so minus 180 on draft kings with the chiefs at 270 broncos at 650 raiders all the way out to 35 to one

the rest of the division stuff is going to come late I'm going to clean up here for a little while I think the chiefs are viable it feels more and more like it could be to make the playoffs versus division I don't think that either of us are running in a lay heading into week four on the charges to win

the division but I'm also not trying to like take the other side of that. No because charges are on a tear. I mean I think if you do want to make a bet it's probably chiefs for nothing for me. I'm definitely not laying it on the chargers right now but But I think, you know, they're playing really well, so it makes sense. And the Chiefs thing gets longer next week if they lose to Baltimore, right?

So you're cooked out to probably three and change at least. So that would be the way to enter in if you wanted to. Packers not quite as short as they were yesterday. They're down to minus 110 to win the north. Lyons plus 170, Minnesota, plus 550, bears at 28. Again, stylistically, these are not bets that I think you and I like to make. late September, but any thoughts on the current board? Yeah, lean Packers.

Then we already saw week one. They're just like kind of a tough matchup for the Lions because they match up like, you know, really well against them. If they can play good DD defense and like pressure, uh, golf like, you know, just naturally without like throwing too much crazy shit at them, I think that's like makes it really tough. Um, so yeah, with lean Packers, again, probably just not laying minus 110 at this point. Plus 110 for the Niners to win the West.

It's a little bit more interesting. Ram's not too far behind, almost two to one. It's Seattle, about six to one, Cardinals, plus 750. Again, Cardinals, I'm just, you know, at two to one. Still not buying, again, injuries in the way that they've played. I'm not sure what's going on there. The Niners stuff just continues to come back to the schedule, right? The preseason schedule, we knew it looks soft, still looks super soft.

It's just really hard. Like, we're still, it doesn't matter what was going on. Injury-wise is still going to play some of the softer teams in the league. What are you thoughts? Yeah, the Niners, I mean, if they were healthy, like even remotely healthy, this would be like an easy, easy play for me to just continue hammering the Niners. But they're not like when you lose Bosa, when you lose, you know, like Jennings isn't played. Iyuk is still out.

Kittle is out. Like it's really tough when you're losing all of your best players. Purdy hasn't played, but, you know, they're still making it work with Mack Jones. So I think they probably find a way to get it done. but day by day week by week like their guys are dropping like flies so uh if i had to make a play probably right now it's on the rams to be honest and just like you know you want to think injury luck like we'll get better but like it's already so far down like the whole like in my opinion it's probably only it's only going to get worse like i don't i don't know if it's going to really

get better to be honest yeah i mean you start to have these cluster injuries at a position right like it could get better but you also can start to lose the second third and fourth guy at certain positions right so they lose ricky pierce all like who are they're trying williams right like the problem like a lot of kendry born yeah hendrick born and jordan wakins and like i don't know i mean like you know who's their wide receiver six like that's like basically we're at this point uh yeah it's not it's not great the afc a couple i feel fairly confident and then the red the bills are minus two thousand yeah I don't know already all right like you know that's 17 to 1 jets and dolphins at 100 they battle

this week on one of the two Monday night games Ravens minus 370 probably still too short with you know not really buying the Steelers with what's going on injury wise to the bangles browns at 255 um afc south colts and minus 155 it's just fascinating to me um the problem is is like I don't believe in any of the other teams. You know, that's like, again, my, like, reluctancy to really go and back the Colts is not really about the AFC South at this point. Like, it would be really surprising.

155 is probably short. I'm just not buying Jacksonville. I'm not the Texans. Like, I'm just kind of, I'm out on Stroud. The defense is good. But, like, they just, what else is going on there? It's not, it's not great. So, again, I'm not jumping to lay 155 in the Colts.

but I think we both think it's probably the right side. Yeah, it is. Minus 140 on Fanduel, I think, is like, I mean, that's good play. Yeah. I don't know if I advocate for divisional parlayes at this point in the season, but if you know, combine like, you know, cold seagulls, bills, like, I mean, there's a couple of them that I feel pretty strongly about. I'm just not, I don't really want to lay minus 140 to the whole season.

So I don't know. I think it's kind of fun. And in the South, the Bucks injuries, Mike Evans, going down for an example. extended period of time, you know, looks like they're getting healthier, I guess, with Tristan Warps coming back and Chris Godwin coming back. The offensive line still had, you know, a bunch of injuries. They're struggling a little bit, but they are minus 425 to win the South. Falcons at 6 to 1, Carolina at 12 to 1.

I know, we don't think the seats are viable, but I don't know, man. I wanted to make the case for the Falcons coming into the season. It's really tough to get behind them with what we saw last week, but thoughts on the South. Yeah, I mean, I think if you want to buy low, probably now for the Falcons, maybe things don't go well for the Bucks injury-wise. Like, Forf's doesn't come back well or Godwin's like, you know, they roll them in slow. And then it's just basically like Ibuka and Baker Mayfield. Like they're going to lose plenty of games coming up.

It's just like if that's the case. If not and everyone's getting healthy, then they're the clear favorite and they're going to win by a lot. So that's the case you have to tell yourself and that we don't see whatever we saw from Michael Pennings again, basically last week, because that was just a disaster. If you are a chalk donkey and you want to currently back all eight of the favorites right now, Packers, I'm sorry, bucks, Colts, Ravens, Bills, Niners, Packers, Chargers, Eagles. Like, 23 and change on draft games. I think I would probably leave out a couple.

Like, I'd probably leave out like Niners. I'd probably leave out Packers. Yeah. Probably leave out chargers. And then probably just probably the rest. That's probably like lowers it by a lot. lot those are like three to one three to one yeah no i'm i'm i'm fine i'll just i'll bet on something else three to one colts bills ravens eagles bucks plus 294 yeah no i'm good you use

one of their boost Connor and lay 875 to win 24 dollars i mean after last was early they got the slip just don't you know don't include the money just like look at this bet this in September, guys. I'm going to, I'll edit it. Just like, you know, that seems to be a common theme. I'll edit it and be like, oh, look how much money I want and I'll add some extra zeros. I don't have you saw any of those fake slips on Twitter. They're so funny, dude.

They're hilarious. I saw the, like, I don't know what it was. Like the Fiverr request that someone was looking for like a graphic designer that can edit bet slips. It's like, holy cow, this is where we're at. It's like a real thing. Dude, yeah. Because there's a really good one last week that,

they made the fan dual slip and then uh so like you know the fan dual thing like has like the four leg parlay it is like the amount then there's like the names in small print and then it has like the big blocks of each so the names in small print didn't match the names on the slip uh so there was like Harrison baiter as was in there and he's not even listed on the four leg slip and then like the the money amount one in the corner was so clearly like photoshopped or whatever it's just it was so good like I mean these guys are just bunch of clowns out here this is why we from the jump have done things the way that we've done things we outsource tracking third party tracking it's a public sheets we don't have i don't have

edit access to it i can view it just like anyone else can we link in it on all of our articles it's pinned to the top of our discord like we've tried to do this through the lens of transparency because um our peers i guess i would say in the space like at this point like the waters just so muddy that in the sense from like someone that's entering the space to consume betting content and trying to buy picks and get like they are looked at as our peers which is wild they're doing it in such a shady way that we just like hey look we're going to do what we do we're going to stay on the up and up you know and again we've been we've each been profitable for every single year that we've done this and it just it's important to us right and

that's not to say that we're not going to have a down here at some point and have a losing year but you know what it's going to be on the sheet you're going to be able to see it and it's like it's just going to be how we're going to do things and it's how we're going to operate and if you find that to be valuable then i think you'd like to enjoy riding with us but that we're always going to be combating that stuff or it's just like look at this capper you know i love the other stuff i've seen too is uh the someone's like aggregating the uh what is like the different discords and the uh the dub club the dub club winners yeah some dudes down so bad like thousands of units you know you go into his account he's got like you know 20,000 Twitter followers and you know I'm sure a bunch of subscribers and it's like dang that's just that's tough it's like anyway MVP Josh Allen your favorite Lamar a little bit behind uh Allen at plus 250 on draft Kings Lamar three to one Herbert third five to one Gordon Love, Jalen Hertz, Jane Daniels, Baker, Mahomes, all short of 20. I like starting to get into this market, but it's still a little bit early for me.

Any thoughts on MVP? Yeah, I think if you buy the Rams like ascending and winning the division, 28 to 1 on Stafford's not bad, just because like given the fragility of the Niners right now, I think they could easily end up like the Rams can make a run and like, you know, end up winning the division, winning a lot of games, and that can make sense. um hurts being that up an MVP just i mean hurts my heart a little bit after some of the hurts tickets uh last year that felt good and you know didn't get there so i'm not betting on him um but yeah overall like i don't have too many other like long shots that makes sense in my opinion

i kind of agree that stafford feels almost like the cutoff yeah um every all the other teams are just kind of dead yeah if you just feel like we've had some really good golf years and if you couldn't get it done then it's really hard to be able to believe that you're going to get it done now. It just feels like a top heavier award. We'll bust through some of these. Offensive rookie of the year. Mecca Buka is the favorite here on draft Kings plus 370.

Tyler Warren at 4 to 1, Genti 7-1. Ted McMillan 7-50, Hampton, 750, Ward 750. Then right behind it with, you know, Scatibu, Junkins, Dart at 20 or so. You've always thought it's going to be a really hard award to beat a quarterback that's going to make every single start though currently ward at 750 you know not your favorite but uh anything kind of jump out to you there i think uh hampton and tete maybe are pretty interesting like hampton without naji like he hasn't played all the well but he played much better last week uh like they're going to keep getting better they're going to be winning a lot of games he's going to see a ton of work

in the receiving games so like he's going to be if he can outplay gentie which i mean so far technically he has um like you know not by much it's a pretty low bar but uh like i think he should be probably closer to warren at buca and then i don't know if scataboo will do enough just because the giants are so bad but if dart comes in like he's going to see a ton of work like that would kind of be fun there and then judkins i mean judkins is like their workhorse like he's their guy 20 to one that's i don't know kind of a fun one i think there or if you buy the like i think there's a lot of like uncertainty so i'm not taking any the top of the board the traviant Henderson stuff like Stevenson fumbled twice and Gibson fumbled once like they're definitely

to use more Henderson now going forward I would think we'll see I don't know but like 30 to 1 Trayvian's cooking this week he's cooking this week we're getting some Trayvion on I'm not Matt I'm retired on Trayvion and Kenneth Walker at least for a little bit yeah that's fair I'm with you on the Hampton and Tet stuff I think what's interesting here is that not all these wards are tied to team success but it is a tiebreaker in a lot of sense again there's narrative right these are just votes is not you know it's personal opinion at times so unless you really separate i think you will see some voters you know lean up a little bit more you know each of them are different but i do think team success is intrinsically tied to awards

more so than you know other stuff here defensive uh rookie of the year uh Abdul Carter plus 2.30, John Campbell at 7 to 1. McHale Williams, 9 to 1, Swessinger, 10 to 1. Love seeing that. Jaylon Walker at 10. Shemir Stewart at 12. Makes no sense to me. Pierce at 15, Hunter, 18. Mason Graham. Shout out to Mason Graham. Played really, really, really well against the Packers, like, was a force. And again, pulling next to Miles Garrett. Help. It helps. It's kind of where I would cut it off, I guess. Xavier Watts is playing really well, but I'm not really worried about, you know, Falcons getting in there. Feel good about my Swessinger 60s that I have there now that he's down to 10. I'll say this about Abdul Carter. So they've had a lot of injuries at linebacker.

Last week against the Chiefs, he played more traditional LB2, but also still blitzed a ton from that spot. So that impacts his tackle numbers and blitzing from the second level impacts his like past rush numbers. So Abdul Carter just from like a pure like numbers standpoint isn't really going to get it done in this current alignment. Like he's he's not going to get a bunch of sacks from where he's at. He's not going to get a bunch of tackles from where he's at. So that's interesting to me. I'm still in on the Swastinger thing at, you know, I have 60s, but 10 to 1. I like when we've moved there.

Nothing else really jumps out to me deep down the board. Yeah, I don't know much to add there. We do have some news that Titans head coach Brian Callahan relinquishing his game play, game day play calling job to QB coach Bo Hardegree. I had to look up who that was. I didn't know who Bo was. 41 years old. His resume can't say it's all that inspiring.

Last two years with the Raiders, you're prior to that with the Patriots. You're two years before that with the Jets. and then 2016 and 2018 with the Dolphins, 2015 with the Bears. I mean, is this guy played for a single good team? Like, I think all these offenses were complete, like, ass. Like, bottom five in the league, I'm pretty sure. Like, I'm going to have to go through and probably tweet about this

because this is like a horrific resume. Yeah, it's tough. We tried to talk about that yesterday on the Mayo show. Like, Hellahan, first coach fired, it's fine. It's interesting. This is the start. right like it's a new ownership group that moved on from rabel because of you know smaller stuff so like I don't know that's interesting the OC for john fox that's what

he was hired by john fox and then was hired by adam gaze oh my god this is great this guy's hidden like you've seen those LinkedIn posts like the fake LinkedIn post where it's like you know like every company that went bankrupt in the last year basically like you're on your resume it would be like, you know, F-TX and like, you know, whatever the Sam Bankman three one was. Anyways, it's like this guy's checking all the boxes. That's this guy. Oh, my God. Here you go to Jeffrey Daniels.

Oh, my God. This just keeps getting better. Sorry, Titans fans. Cam Ward might be okay, but this is, it's not great. Jonathan Taylor, your favorite offensive player of the year currently at $5.50 on Draft Kings? Bucca's at 8.50, McCaffrey, Bijon, Henry, Sequin, Jemir Gibbs, all kind of in that 10 to 1 range. Anything you jump out to you, offensive player of the year. I mean, it's John and Taylor's been awesome.

So is Puka. Yeah, Jonathan Taylor's a tough fate at this point. I mean, he's just, he's playing like every snap. He's crushing, Colts are crushing. If you think the Niners keep winning, CMC is probably a good one. He's going to be the hard and sold on pace for like 140 receptions. so yeah i don't have too many other like long shots here either i don't i don't think that there's i mean if the league neighbors starts going nuts with uh jackson dart that could make

sense js n's crushing so like 35 to one there on dk is not a bad one if you go further down um it's been awesome yeah other than that like i don't really like too much to be honest on the board yeah uh defensive player of the year i think is is very interesting um because this one has actually really been tied to team results it you You just can't be on a, not only a bad defense, but just a non-playoff team. Micah 3 to 1, Miles Garrett, 6 to 1. Miles Garrett's the best defensive player in the league.

He's just not going to win defensive player the year if the Browns win in six games, right? So, um, he'd have to break the sack record and just be like insane, right? And it could happen, I guess. He's that good, but that's, that makes it really, really hard. Plutgett 6 to 1 was 10 to 1 yesterday. so he's moved and that makes a ton of sense. Will Anderson Jr. verse Max Crosby, T.J. Watt, Nick Benito, all at 20.

It's a pretty big tier drop. Mike at 3 to 1 makes some sense, obviously. He starts to put up some counting stats, has some big plays and some prime time spots. He's massively impactful. Hodge at 6 to 1, I think, is also very, very, very viable. I have a long shot that I really like. I liked a little bit more when Hutch wasn't necessarily doing what he did last night.

Derwin James is as long as 100 to 1 in some spots. Some books that I know people struggle to get down on have like 150 to 1. Derwin James has been awesome. It's been awesome for a long time. He's been particularly good this year. They use him all over the fields. I don't even know what position you would say Derwin James plays. He's a safety by numbers, but he aligns it.

safety so infrequently like he plays like five percent of his snaps and like traditional safety alignment he's on the edge he's a linebacker he's a terror and he's been awesome so if this team is going to win 11 to 12 games and have one of the best defenses in the league and they don't have with calil mac missing a bunch of other bunch of games they don't have like a another dude it's like a lifetime achievement award for a team that it's really good and you don't have like Mike is good but doesn't have like huge counting stats and like Hutch is good but they like they back in the Packers win the division like there's a path for Durwin James to be significantly shorter than 100 to 1 so I really like that play as a long

shot I think it should be significantly shorter because he's a baller and he's been a baller for a long time so Derwin's kind of a nice long shot yeah that's kind of that's kind of cool one 100 to 1 you said yeah he's 80 on draft Kings but I think Fandal has 100 I think MGM and hard rock have like 150s, which again, I know you're not going to be able to get down much on that, but I don't mind it. Yeah. So I think he's interesting. Bust to the last two, coach of the year, Jeff Kings, that's coach and assistant coach,

which is interesting. I like having the assistant coach. Shane Steichen, 380 for coach of the year, Harbaugh, 650. Those are only too shorter than 10 to 1. I do not understand Liam Coleman at 10. Mike McDonnell at 12, I think you could sell me on. Shanahan's there at 12, LaFlor at 18, bowls. McDermott there as well.

Vrable and Dan Campbell, Ben Johnson. There's a big group at 20. Any coach of your thoughts? I mean, this award is really tough, honestly. But, yeah, I mean. You have PTSD here. Yeah, I have a lot of PTSD. Shannon at 12, I don't think it's bad.

Just if they keep winning with like this, you know, you can definitely make a case of him just like overcoming all these injuries, you know, like that makes a lot of sense. McVeigh, if they end up like winning the division, like the vice versa of that. I think both those are probably. kind of fun ones here. Other than that, I mean, it's Coltskeep Mowen, like,

the second's got this unlocked. Yeah. Assistant coach is fun. Jeff Hathley is the favorite defensive coordinator for the Packers at 5 to 1. Jesse Minter at 7-1. I think it's a great look. Again, this is kind of the same narrative that I just built for Durbin James. Like, you know, mentor is a defensive coordinator for the Chargers.

You know, again, the Packers are in the way a couple times here for the Chargers with, you know, with Micah and Hathley, but I think those are really nice in terms of prices. Nothing else really jumps out to me. I'm guessing you haven't done a lot of assistant coaches of your research, but if you're looking at it, anything jump out to you? No,

I mean, should we bet on Bo Hard degree? I mean, this guy sounds like a real winner. I know he's not even listed right now. Probably not listed, yeah. He's not listed for a good, good reason.

I mean, he will be listed at some point. Yeah, I mean, I don't have a ton. I mean, it's colds defense plays better, maybe some Lou Anarumo stuff.

like if they keep winning like sure uh i mean that could make sense he's 40 to one so like i don't know i think that could be a fun one yeah you're going down the board uh yeah this is tough i mean Calvin shepherd if the lions keep playing like they did last night could be interesting but yeah halfway a mentor i think are deserved favorites um yeah that would be kind of where i would go in that market so um yeah interesting I got one quick sharp stack shout out before we head out here. Brian brought it up, crushed Tesla under 16 and a half yesterday. It's a nice bankroll builder.

We also have, for Thursday, Michael Wilson under 26.5 is popping on Fliff and Hard Rock, I believe. It's down to like 21.5. Yeah, 21 and a half on Novig and other sites. Like, it's a lot of yards. I think I might take some unders against the Seattle defense anyways, to be honest. Yeah. I haven't done my full research yet, but I bet it while we're like live. So I think of that.

Yeah, check it out. We get a seven-day free trial. There's no risk free just 4.4.com slash plans. You'll see the plan all the way on the right. Opt in for the seven-day trial. Take advantage of it. Use promo code M-TL. If you decide after seven days that you want to move forward with that, again, it gets you

access to everything that we do. Gets you in the Discord, every tool, article, all the projections, all that stuff. so I appreciate you guys hanging out with us today again reminder come back on Friday for prop drop 3 p.m. Eastern move the line where we listen to podcast 4 4 live on YouTube channel Connor again is another wedding he's traveling he's going to be in you know in Baltimore but maybe maybe he comes up shows up the few adult cocktails lining his tummy and gives us some absolute bangers so maybe we get some unders in the show from Connor after a few drinks too so we'll see TBD on that when I drink I just play over

that's the problem so uh might maybe get some overs um on friday who knows just get loose get optimistic so appreciate everyone hanging out with us uh again come back on friday for connor i'm ryan we'll see you all next time thanks everybody