Move The Line - Week 4 Betting Recap & Week 5 Early Predictions!

Episode Date: September 30, 2025

Join us as we analyze matchups, key stats, and betting lines to help you make the smartest picks for opening week. From underdog upsets to sure-fire favorites, we've got the insights you need to start your betting season strong. Don't miss out – subscribe now for your Week 5 betting guide and get ready to win big! If you want to check out SharpStack, you can get a 7-day Free trial at 4for4.com/plans. SharpStack subscribers get everything at 4for4, including all the picks from our staff, every article, and every tool for betting, DFS, and your fantasy leagues, as well. Promo code MTL is good for 25% off, so check it out today.  Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFL Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonan Visit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by Sharpstack. I'm Ryan and joins here, as always by my I plus one. Connor Allen, what's going on, buddy? Yeah, not much coming off of a wedding weekend. I was out in Baltimore. It was a beautiful wedding. It was a lot of fun. But, you know, missed the grind.

Missed the Friday show. I tuned in for like a little bit. I was able to, you know, end up watching like, I don't know, the last five minutes or so. But was it a good time? I'm sure it was. I mean, you'd Slop, it's always a good time.

It's a good time. We, you know, we had some fun at the top of the show discussing your gallivanting all over the country in, you know, wedding season, how you're still in that part of your life. But even still how,

you know, you're still in that part of your life, you know, Slop and I in our, you know, Slop's older than me. So I lean into that whenever I can. Not in the common theme at the company.

But, you know, Slop and I, her in like friends get married the second time you know we're divorce celebrations you know like i have an annual guy's golf trip that started the root cause was that someone got divorced and was like well we need to get you know we need to get them on the course we need to go let's go do something that started a you know a guy's golf trip so this is kind of the season that we're in but even in relation to other folks that are of your age the sheer volume of weddings that you and your wife have

attended in the last eight years that I've known you nine years that I've known you is just absolutely insane to me it's insane now part of it is your wife is very charismatic and charming and has a lot of friends that she's obviously doing a lot of heavy lifting i believe the balthmore wedding again was one of your wife's friends not you because again listeners viewers understands your lack of charisma yeah exactly it's not a me but it's absolutely insane man it's insane weddings aren't cheap and like weddings out of town it's not cheap it's it's been it's been a lot we got guess what we got another one this weekend we're in chicago though so that's totally fine but got another one this weekend at actually the same place that uh matt runy got married our colleague

um so beautiful venue super excited for that but the problem is it's not just like a one day thing it's like a day like weddings have turned into like uh oh friday welcome party maybe a rehearsal dinner if you're in the wedding drinks after usually if there's people coming into town like you hang out with them for like a happy hour before on Friday and then Saturday it's like all day wedding stuff and doing that then sometimes even Sunday they'll have like a brunch or like kind of like a wedding debrief like with the friends so it's like you know you're losing a whole weekend to it's always obviously super fun um but you know it's just it adds up it takes a toll real quick I love love big fan of love celebrating love big fan of it it's great

I love weddings. I really do. Like I, you know, it's, they're fantastic. You know, I'm a sap,

you know, see people emotional, I get emotional. I love it. The optimism. You ball of that. It's fantastic. The optimism.

I don't, it's great. Life is hard. You know, that day is just never is, it's all downhill from there. No, it's just,

it's a fantastic celebration. I think it's great. But like, I like them partially because I just don't have, I'm not going to 12 a year. 15 a year, which is not even exaggerating. At times, I think, in the last handful of years, you've pushed 10 plus. It's just an insane amount of weddings.

Yeah, I don't even know what the total count is. I mean, this year we're going to be like eight or nine, something like that. A lot of them are during the fall, though, so that's kind of the problem. They all get, like, loaded into this section of the calendar. So it's, you know, no one respects football season. Like, what do I, you know, stop bliver here? What the heck? I don't matter.

I mean, again, they're most of my wife's friends' weddings. So not like my friends would give a shit anyways. If I was like, dude, don't do it and fall, they would give me a middle finger and be like, I'm going to do what my wife wants to do, which I respect, probably the right move. Good start. Yeah, good start to, for the wedding, you know, marriage, for sure. Yeah. Well, we had a good time on Friday.

Yeah, I gave two props on Friday. They both hit. We had Marry and Hampton. And what else they'll do on Friday? Oh, Tyler Warren. It's a two for two on the prop show. All that. Our parlay didn't get off the mat.

because we were on, I think, Hawkinson in that opener, you know, slop, you know, leaning on his tight ends. I think Hawk 5 plus, you know, kind of kill us before we get a call. Hey, that's okay. Keep going. We'll build it back together great again with you on Friday, so look forward to that. Again, I want to remind folks to check out Sharpstack. It's our new suite of betting tools at 4-4, including the EV tool. Also, market-based projections in there for the NFL.

Also for college football, if that's your thing. Made some updates on the Pickham tool, which I think you would like. Again, if you were in a state, it doesn't have domestics or even if you kind of mix in pick-em games. You know, we have that and a really exciting update there. We're excited about ARB tools. Prop screens, odd screens. We're going to put the odd screen in order as requested by our friend,

Andy Molitor, you know, folks that really grind the game order and the number. We're going to get that set for you eventually here too. No one's complained about that except Andy. We're going to get that set for Andy. He's the loudest voice in the room. We're going to get Andy all squared away. So right now, great deal. Can't be seven-day free trial.

So that's where you can get started for, 4.4.com slash plans. Get started for a free seven days. You can use promo code MTF to get 50% off of your first month. Seems like a pretty good deal. You can use promo code MTR as well, or MTL 50 for 50% off. MTF for 25% off of the annual.

We're going to have some more discounts coming, soon keep your eyes peel through that especially for subscribers so if you're already subscribes and you haven't upgraded to sharp stack we're going to have some special stuff for you guys coming here shortly but everyone should just take advantage of this free seven-day trial again 444.com slash plans very very very easy for you to do so uh connor you can pop that up on the screen if you want to show folks that we're talking about what sharp stack looks like it's a blast keep talking about it i bet a little bit more this weekend off the evy tool and each week i just find myself adding a little bit more um

of the things that I'm not originating, just kind of tailing the EV tool. And again, it's actually sustaining some unders for me, Connor. I'm balancing the portfolio by getting a good amount of unders on the EV tool. Hollywood Brown gave me a little bit of a sweat late in garbage time, but we still got home under 47 and a half. It was a big one for me this week.

But yeah, talk to people about Sharpstack. No, I love it. Yeah, it's, I mean, it's just easy to use. Like, I don't see, there's any, like, baseball stuff is tough because it's like pretty, I don't know, there's not as much stuff right now. Now it's obviously playoffs, so it's a little bit lower margin stuff in terms of the EV. But you've got a couple of stuff on exchanges.

If you don't use like the No Big or ProfitX, there's still plenty of other stuff at domestic. So like this, I thought about playing this Freddie Freeman one, you know, minus 135 on Builder, minus 175, minus 173 at Pinnacle. So it's kind of an interesting one. The Garrett Crochet under strikeouts as well. Minus 101, DK. I mean, you can see it minus 119 bookmaker is high. So lots of fun ways to use it,

EB tool. I'll probably just have the odd screen up for most of what we're talking about today, though, to be honest. Yeah. Just, I don't know, for people to see. And this is like,

this is what I have pulled up anyways in my other monitor. I'm sure many of you see me like kind of looking over to, um, either the side. It's, this is what I'm looking at most of the time. It's like some kind of mission of this or like one of our futures tools or whatever.

Just make sure that I'm citing the right odds. Yeah. And like Conner's referencing too, you know, we were obviously to a football show. we're highlighting football odds and having discussion around, you know, NFL week four and week five, but this is, this tool has other sports. So, you know, if you're grinding, I think where the WMBA is in the finals, still want to grind WMBA. We're really excited. We're about

20 days or so out from the NBA. I, where this thing's going to be popping on the nightly basis with NBA odds, you know, again, even when we were in the trial run, we were kind of baseball mostly, you know, WMBA. We still haven't got a full slate of NBA in here every night. It's going to be fantastic very very excited for that again so it's not just a football tool the sharp stack is for anything betting wise so uh again seven day trial on site check it out and let us know if you have any questions again sign up with the promo code there's a bunch of them out there we're happy to help uh take care of that for you little show shifting to kind of speak to at the top typically we've been doing this at 11 a m eastern on tuesdays uh 4 4 4 live on youtube channel move the line

we'll be listening to podcasts you're still going to be able to find it on those channels we're going to be shifting to mondays uh 3 p m eastern so this show will be mondays 3 p m eastern prop drop will be friday's 3 pm eastern with high slop as well so book ending the week monday will be a little bit more of a recap of what we saw early look at how you know look headlines have moved based off of some of the early sunday night monday morning stuff so a little bit more recap and then kind of a look ahead uh kind of in this middle ground we find this little Tuesday, Wednesday, kind of a tough spot. Like, did we talk about what happened last week?

Do we kind of just forward project? This is going to make it easier for us. I think it would be more of a value add for you as a listener to get an early sense of where we think these lines are moving, kind of unpacking some of the injury news and some of the bigger stuff for the week. So look for this episode, Mondays, 3 p.m. Eastern moving forward. Again, both in the podcast feed for Move Online and 4-4 live on the YouTube channel. Subscribe, rate and review, all those things.

You know the deal. We appreciate all those things. So, all right, Connors jump into it a little bit. first week four was kind of a week of attrition like just a ton of injuries felt like i mean maybe that's also just highlighted by baltimore in a really big spot against kansas city just kind of crapping out and not even necessarily because they performed poorly but it feels like they had a bunch of injuries and they got a ton more um you know touched on it on mayo show on on monday a little bit we're feeling really good about those futures the baltimore green bay features that we had we're down

pretty bad now. We get just before the show, the news on Lamar being out possibly two to three weeks with a hamstring injury. We now have the Texans favored on the road in Baltimore in week five, which is fascinating. The Cooper Rush era. So talk to me about Chiefs Baltimore or any other week four thoughts he had, but I'd love to get your thoughts on kind of where our futures position were the Cowboys in a spot where we thought they were going to get steamrolled by our Packers and then that ends up in a tie.

So what are your thoughts here? I mean, the problem is, too, with the Ravens, that they have the Texans this week, which is not like a super easy match. And then they get the Rams next week before they're by. So I would expect Lamar to return week eight-ish, basically. So week seven by. I would expect that to be the case. I don't know.

I mean, May I brought it up. But I think that, like, Steelers win the division now that we know for sure, Amar's out. If you're getting whatever, two plus weeks have been missing, it's like two to one. I don't like the Steelers. but like if they're going to be able to run good and you know like win some games here while the ravens are maybe losing games probably here we have cooper rush um i was looking it up today basically so he's played a full season's worth of like passing attempts at this point in his career so it's like 300 or 570 pass attempts something like that in his career so far uh 60% completion

rate 3 500 yards 6.3 yards per attempt 20 touchdowns 10 interceptions like it's not bad like I think the total numbers in aggregate are okay. Went nine for 13 last week after he came in. I mean, ideally they can just run the ball with Derek Henry and get out of there. But based on how other defense has been playing and that they're injured, I'm not sure that that's going to be the case. So, yeah, I don't know. For me at this point, like I think that they could beat Houston

because Houston's offense has been so bad, to be honest. But I'm not sure if I'm excited about it here. Texans, two and a half, one and a half and two and a half point favorites right now. 40 point total seems a little high even, to be honest. Some easy games coming out of the buy for Baltimore, though. Not easy, I would say, but the schedule lights up a little bit, right? Bears are playing, okay, they're taking advantage of the schedule that they've had. Still, I think, mixed feelings on whether that's a really good football team

or a team that's kind of threatened the back end of the NFC playoff pitcher. At Miami, at Minnesota, at Cleveland. So a tough stretch of three straight road games, but all fairly winnable football games. at Minnesota, probably a tougher stretch for Cooper Rush. But I believe Cooper Rush has won some games in Minnesota as a dog back in the Cowboys. So, you know, who knows? And then the Jets, bangles before you get to the Steelers, which is going to be a really impactful game.

Steelers still week 14, week 18 on the schedule for the Raven. So that's really, by that point, we should have Lamar fully ramped back, fully ramped back up. So I'm still just a little reluctant. to Steelers, even though, you know, it's obviously shifting the market and, you know, three weeks with all the Mars. Hold on a little bit still for the Ravens. Like, I don't know, they're like... Spot.

Did you lose me? Yeah, I think one of us is frozen here. Can you hear me? But... We were talking about, yeah, you were talking about the Steelers. Exactly what we brought up on the show last week happened in London. It was like just like a weird London game. Steelers get like a bunch of random turnovers.

And then Carson like stinky Carson Wentz comes out and like is just like awful for most of that game. And that was like the 99th percentile downside scenario that could like you had no idea that was going to happen and ended up happening. So I don't know. I mean overall still like. Their defense, EPA-wise, we're looking at 22nd through four weeks. Offensively, like, I can't imagine it's much better. Like, they've had, what, two really good games and two really bad games, 11th.

I mean, they're just like a very average team. But in that division, average is enough to compete for the win. One of the division we thought was going to be the best in the NFL is now not looking good. Yeah, I mean, big part of that. The handicap is Lamar and Joe Burrow, right? Now we're, Jay Browning era is not going very well. Baltimore defenses have really, really, really banged up. I mean, um, Madabuque and the interiors is a big loss for them, both in terms of interior

pass rush, you know, run stuffing. They've been, they've been really, really poor. Now you lose Rokwan Smith for multiple weeks as well with the hamstring injury. You've already been without Jaya Alexander. it just there's so many other guys that are you know ancillary pieces that are definitely part of their rotation that are they've been out for weeks and will continue to be out so it's just kind of a tough tough spot outside of obviously just your quarterback so yeah it's just wildly seeing on the odds screen that the Texans are a team that I want to

continue to be short on and now they're road favorites against a team that I thought was going to win the Super Bowl it changes quickly in the NFL yeah yeah any other things to highlight for for week four you know what any big takeaways for you um well i have a i have a funny one and then i have like uh you know some serious ones uh the the serious ones are um yeah the jake browning which is not the guy bangles are just like completely incapacitated with him at quarterback uh it's a complete disaster right now so even with i i was eye in the under i talked about it on pin mayo's show i thought about releasing to subs i honestly just got scared off because I'm like, well, Jamar Chase and Deegan's alone,

if they just run them on, like, you know, shallow routes could probably just get there and, like, maybe they'll get there in garbage time. And couldn't move the ball in the two-minute drill at halftime. Couldn't move the ball at all in garbage time in the fourth quarter. It's a major problem. So I don't know if you have any big Jake Browning thoughts, but it looks real bad right now.

I don't think there are big Jake Browning thoughts. Just they're all very small. They're all very bad. Tough scratch here, too, to continue. Detroit, Green Bay, Pittsburgh. next three for Jake Browning and the Bengals. It's not going to get better. So, you know,

put Green Bay on the road coming out of a buy. That's a, that's a real, real tough spots. Yeah, I mean, there's talks about training for Russ, training for James.

Like, you know, we're, you're down bad when these are the, you know, the life rafts being thrown to your franchise. Like, we desperately need to go get Russ.

Like, well, things have gone really poorly in Cincinnati. So, We're not even going to find out necessarily if the defense is improved because it's just the situation is so different. So, yeah, they're down. They're down bad. So, you know, it's starting to obviously leak into Jamar Chase, you know, popping off on the coach, just to make sense.

Diva wide receivers are going to be the first ones to pop out that there's a problem, right? That's just kind of the hierarchy of how frustration is going in locker rooms, give me the damn ball. So, yeah, it's going to get probably worse before it gets better in Cincinnati. Yeah, no, not bullish there. for sure. Some other quick notes I add. There's Night Football. Cardinals are just not good. Like, the fact that they were even in that game was kind of wild. It was, in my opinion, it seemed pretty lucky that, you know, they came back there

at the last minute. Falcons bounce back was very predictable. You know, we knew that they were not. We talked about the game of the Panthers game. Like that was just a very weird scenario like with what happened and Pennix played like probably his worst game as a pro. So I'm not banging on that being the case going forward. Now he did just get a pretty bad commander secondary that I think was

beat up as well. So I don't want to put too much stock into that. I think he's just going to be fine. Like, you know, they're going to be a team that can win some games situationally. And then the Giants are going to win some games, but probably still get destroyed and others. That was like one of my other takeaways.

Like they're going to be kind of scrappy and competitive for two quarters sometimes, three quarters, and then they end up losing by 14, uh, probably pretty routinely against anyone good. This week against the Saints, though, I think they could,

they could win, but the matchup is kind of sneaky, tough for them in a lot of weird ways. yeah and without neighbors another you know blow to any optimism that comes out with like you know like i said the rookies are playing good right you get some optimism from jackson dart like the box score wasn't incredible per se but that's actually a tough rate the chargers defense still is a really good unit and scatibo looks like he's a little fun um you know he can i get the fan base excited it seems like and abdul carter played out of his mind uh that's really exciting so then just

lead balloon by losing um league neighbors there for for an extended period of time um yeah that's actually kind of a sneaky fun game giant saints this weekend so we'll see i'll talk about that one we shift to to week five um what do you make of the eagles situation here uh eagles went on the road they were in control in the first half um you know played really good football zero completions in the second half on 11 dropbacks like i they're look defending super bowl chance they're undefeated it's just it's just there's a lot it's been a lot more weird in philadelphia than this feeling of like inevitability that they're on their like course to repeat uh what do you take away from what we saw in tampa bay eagles win cover um what are

your thoughts yeah they don't have a good like they're they're not winning by very much like it think games are close sake on barclay's not getting going on the ground at all through four weeks last year at averaging 5.9, 5 yards per carry, five total touchdowns, 435 rushing yards and just 73 carries. This year he is just 237 rushing yards on 77 carries. So averaging 3.1 yards per carry, three total touchdowns. It's just not going according to plan. These are games that they're winning games that, you know, like they should be dominating on the ground and they're not. We say it took, you know, basically a miracle for them to win last week with like the past game coming alive in the second half. And that just didn't necessarily.

they translate here so i don't know like it's they're a really tough team for me to handle a handicap on a week to week basis but i think there are definitely some warning signs here for them to like lose a random game honestly coming up yeah i mean see a tougher schedule i mean preseason they were favored in all but one uh i'm in week 17 on the road in buffalo but they still got to go to green bay uh they get detroit uh at home they got to go to the chargers that game looks a little harder than maybe we thought preseason uh there just aren't a lot of clear toss-up spots for them. There's still, you know, games against the Cowboys and Bears and Raiders, a couple against

the commanders still. So there's just a lot of wins still left in the schedule here unless there's some sort of, you know, injuries or just complete implosion with what's going on there, right? You get the cryptic A.J. Brown tweets, like, those don't typically come from a four-and-o team. But, again, here we are. and, you know, the silence is brewing in A.J. Brown, even though he is no longer silent. He tweeted out his silence. It's always fascinating to me. Broncos money line this week, three and a half, four point dogs against Philly.

Yeah, it's a short week is always tricky there, too. Yeah. I mean, I'm still buying Denver. I know it hasn't been great. you'd definitely sell me on that if it was a home game but traveling east on a short week is not a great spot um we'll see is that one of your one of your liens you're like the i mean just the more i thought about the more i looked at it i was like yeah kind of that's that's that's a pretty interesting one um but yeah we can move on to week five here in a second i wanted to show this tweet real quick from um a guy that we've had a lot of history with on our draft shows um it's Connor Hughes uh so i don't know if you saw this tweet here but

it's something so basically like yeah so he wrote i'm like i'll skip through it a little bit he was like talking about jackson dart and basically saying like the way he moved from the far corner showers to his stall he now stood collecting himself like then he talks about brian dable like joined his quarterback embracing him but this time it was different and i'll he like reached around and grabbed the back of his neck um if you haven't seen this tweet just read it Like, I had a double check that he wasn't a parody. I mean, this is literally, it's so funny. It is honestly incredible.

And he's getting a ton of hate for it. Connor used notoriously, the reason we, you and I don't like him is because he was the same guy who said 100% that the Jets are not drafting Sauce Gardner. Like, he's like, I will not believe it. It's 100% not happening. And he hadn't gotten some stuff right the previous year during the COVID draft. I think it was like Elijah Verit Tucker or something like that. And so, you know, we 100% certainty on anything is like pretty strong.

in the draft world. So I kind of had crossed him off my list. And lo and behold, he goes, fourth overall, I think it was to the Jets. So now he's writing like erotic male, you know, notes here post game about Jackson DART because he gets one win. Like, oh, I mean, I like Jackson Dard, but this is just one of the strangest things I've ever seen. I don't like this guy. I mean, as is. And so, I mean, I don't know.

This is just weird. This is so weird. it's a lot to take in i mean like i get it the giants i mean let's not pretend that they're just not let's not pretend of the jets like in terms of like what the franchise has done they've had some good seasons

they stole a couple of super bowls from my beloved patriots they've won super bowls in the parcels belichick you know phil sims laurence taylor era like they've had really really good football teams but they've been down bad for a little bit but this like rush to worship Jackson Dart is is kind of wild again he looked spry and the rushing is fun and like at the

end of the day he got a win against the really good football team but like it was it was borderline erotic it's like it would like Fabio in the cover of the article or something like that just a long flowing hair and yeah it's it's like softcore football porn in a way it's a little much it's a little much for a tweet something dude i was i cracked everything this and then you guys want to if you ever have time i mean read through the comments and the quote tweets and if you click on this you'll get a bunch of other tweets that are just so funny of like we're mocking con interviews basically about this it's just i don't know what he's doing um it's it is what it is rich he deserves all the hate that he's

getting because i mean what what the hell is this so yeah that was a good way and like the chargers had some injuries there too right joel leaving early in that game was a problem one for them. It was kind of a tough injury week. There are a lot of impactful ones that I think are going to carry over into week five for sure. So we had a Rams Colts bet. I can't,

I couldn't even, I didn't even bring it up in the Mayo show. I was going to say, do you feel good about that? No, I don't. That's why I didn't bring it up. Like,

I thought it was just like a coin toss, basically. I could have gone either way, I think. I mean, it should have been the Colts win. Yeah. I mean, A.D. Mitchell cost them, what, 14 points? Yeah. I mean, so, yes, yes, definitely seven.

He got called for a hold on the Jonathan Taylor 50. It actually was a very impactful hold. So sometimes there are a holds are like, yeah, why would you, like, that sucks. That's on the other side of play. He actually held a guy who had a legit chance to tackle him. So, but yeah, the touchdown thing, I felt bad for him. You could see he instantly knew what he did and they were trying to console him. And this kid gets, you know, finally an increased snap rate because,

Alec Pierce is there, makes a big play, and just fumbles the bag, literally. And so it felt for the kid in the moment because it was like, he wasn't necessarily trying to gloat a little bit, shifting to do a little bit of like pre-touchdown celebration as he crosses the goal line. But yeah, tough, tough, tough, tough, tough. Yeah, I mean, I couldn't, I couldn't fully gloat. How he got there, though, was sick. Like, that was like a sick catch, spun out, like, you know, accelerated.

And it was, yeah, just like, looks like he was moving the ball between hands. They're like trying to reach out across the goal line and bumped it out of his own hand. I mean, that really sucks because that was an awesome play. And he deserves more playing time, but that's tough. I mean, you make that mistake and then the hold, you know, that coaches hate that shit. So he might be in the dog. Yeah, it's not great. All right, let me shift a little bit to week five with some more week four thoughts to kind of shift us.

There's touched a little bit about on Baltimore scenario and all the happy. and there. I don't think, like, we've been talking about staying, I guess, bullish or optimistic. We're definitely been reluctant to bury the Chiefs. Obviously, the Chiefs looked significantly better against the Depleted Ravens team. You know, having Xavier Worthy come back was fantastic while Lamar was in that football game. Spags had him in a blunder. It's a couple weeks in a row where, like, really poor pocket presence, Lamar. And look, we know what the Chief's defense can do. it's a really good young unit that continues to just think they've drafted really well and they have a lot of depth and these guys are now starting to really contribute to make some good

plays they're Monday night on the road in week five here against Jacksonville basically three some three and a halfs Jacksonville big road win in week four against the nineers continuing to I don't know a ton of turnovers huge special teams plays i'm still i don't know me it's almost october we got four games in the bag i just still not buying the jacks connor am i am i like missing the boat am i doing something wrong here because i really like the chiefs especially at three on monday night in jacksville yeah i just don't really like i don't really get it like i don't understand like how they're they're winning games but it is one of those things where they're like scrappy and they're just i mean maybe

they're just pulling it together like it seems disjointed like Trevor Lawrence is still not playing all that particularly well. It's their defense. I think that's what's going on right now. Their defense is playing extremely well. Second and EPA per play right now. And like fourth in success rate, that's pretty wild. I don't know.

Like, I don't think that they're that good. Like that was not when we saw Liam Cohen come over, we're like, oh, their offense is going to take that leap into the maybe these types of metrics, best case scenario. Instead, it's their defense so far that has made just like a massive jump. But when you look at who they've played against, I mean, the Niners are beat to shit. Like, they're busy.

They are. Pierce all missed the end of the game. Joanne Jennings was kind of like hobbling out there most of the time. Then they played a game against, what was Houston, right? Yeah, Houston, the Bengals, when Burrow got injured, and the Panthers. I mean, yeah, I think we just need to bet, like, Chiefs' all team total of, like, forever. Like, I don't even know, 35, 40. Like, the problem is the Chiefs aren't healthy either.

like this is like they're healthier and they looked good last week but they're definitely not like it's not a rishi rice worthy all 100% like type of game for them chiefs alt spread chiefs minus six and a half you know um chiefs minus nine and a half something like that this week too i can get down on just kind of separating because i think the chief's defense can show up in a way i still i just don't see it with with Trevor lawrence is just not there um locks on to his first read too often doesn't seem to have exceptional pocket awareness yeah i just i'm not buying the chiefs i mean the jags i think you did a good job laying out too who they played in the scenarios in which they played the rate i mean like rock purdy wasn't healthy in that game either i came back

and you can tell he just wasn't sharp wasn't 100% they said after the game still dealing a little bit with the toe and it's not great so yeah i want to find ways to the kind of short this jags team, which is a big spot Monday night, hosting the Chiefs. But, yeah, I think that that's one of my favorite looks there on the board. And again, we touched on getting in on the Chiefs in the futures market, whether it's, you know, to make the playoffs or divisional prices based off of what we thought coming out of the Baltimore game. Obviously, those are cooked now because they beat Baltimore.

I have fairly convincing fashion as well. So those aren't necessarily great prices. But, yeah, it's Chiefs. here for me in week five um what other week five numbers jump out to you on the board here i got two that i think are pretty interesting here one i think that the browns can keep it close with the vikings um like kind of the same handicap as last week in a sense of like you're getting cars start start here though how do you handicap this unique situation where we have a team back to back weeks in europe right we've gone from ireland to london but they can come home there's

you're staying within their, you know, European body clocks. It's kind of an interesting scenario. We don't have a huge history of these teams going back to that in Europe. The Jags did it, right? Yeah. And they won. Like, they beat a team way better than them, if I remember correctly. They absolutely curve-stopped the bills.

Yeah. The second leg. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think that that's possible. I think that's like, that's within the range of outcomes. And that's what I'm going to blame if for some other, for some reason, the Browns lose, you know by 30 but I think like just matchup wise here like I don't think that Carson Wentz led Vikings are in a great spot to expose this Browns defense and so it's just going to be kind of

like a mucked up game here for this for this Browns team I don't know and I think Quinn Judkins has shown enough maybe they can get him going on the on the ground and we have uh some people are reporting here Jim Houston said Dylan Gabriel is starting this week for the Browns, and there is a report here. Yahoo is reporting it from Matt, Matt Zenitz, from CBS, who said that, yeah, Dylan Gabriel is going to start. It's been pretty bad, though. Flacco, I mean, I get it. Yeah. It makes sense. Yes, ESPN Cleveland's thing. Yeah, so this is the gentleman you're referencing beat reporter for CBS. that Gabriel's going to be the guy.

I don't know how that impacts the market. I don't expect it to impact it very much. I mean, Flacco has been pretty terrible. Yeah. Yeah, it's been really bad. So, I mean,

Dylan Gabriel, I don't know. I don't really like him. I watched him play live last year against Wisconsin at Wisconsin. And he looked like ass. I'm not going to lie. He looked real bad. And that was like maybe it was the worst game they played,

but it was against like a real team. You know, like, even then it was not a real team wisconsin sucks too they just could like actually play some defense and i don't know he's got kind of a noodle arm he's like you know it's like i hate to say it because like you know the whole like lefty thing or whatever and like tua and stuff like that but he does remind me a lot of tua like with like it's just like kind of soft little like ducks that like early in his career were fine because he had a little more juice and was like placing the ball

well and like had the scheme perfect and maybe that's fine that's all the brown's need but um i don't know against like flores here like maybe the overrunner's 36 and a half so low already um but i don't really see a clear path to either two moving the ball particularly well yeah i think it's sustained and he drives junkins carries over or something like that could be interesting but again you're i mean he's hitching your wagon it's going to be so high but like it doesn't even a game script hasn't even mattered he is like just like 20 carries basically and like every game as a starter and they've been just getting whipped in most of them or like I guess the Packers one was close

but they were down for most of that game. Yeah, he had 18 and 21 the last two weeks. He had 21 and a 10 to 34 loss. How was it even possible? Yeah, it's hard to do. So we have to look at that a little bit. Yeah, but we're seeing some 35 and a halfs moving here a little bit on this number.

So yeah, that's a short one. It's a tricky handicap because of, you know, back of quarterbacks. Again, I think both teams, the best unit is the defense. for sure um they're kind of unique you know defenses to scheme against too so yeah 36 under 36 is tough but uh to bet but you know generating multiple scoring drives here other than like the defenses creating scoring opportunities that would be that would be my

worry on uh yeah on the under on that one um also another one I came out of I came out of the toilet bowl with an advantage here. The Dolphins beat the Jets pretty handily, I would say. It felt like it was a pretty dominant effort for most of the game. I think the scoreboard ended up looking like kind of close, but that's not how the game played out. I think the Cowboys are going to beat the Jets pretty bad here. The Cowboys defense, I got let up a lot of points,

have let up a lot of points in most games. But I think kind of play a style of football that could give Justin Field some issues, play a lot of, like a ton of zone. which might limit some of them is rushing. They did get some pressure, like, up front now, kind of naturally for the first time ever. Maybe that was just like a symptom of, I don't know, the Packers missing guys or whatever,

but like they did play a little bit better. And so, in offensively, like, I think the Jets defense is very, very bad. So, like, the Cowboys should be able to score on them. So I think two and a half is pretty interesting here. There's another way to keep fading the Jets, to be honest, because this team, and his team stinks. Pretty bad.

Another team has had some sneaky, low-key. injuries especially in the defensive side that are impacting probably already pretty poor roster right like you know we thought that they had a shot it'd be like okay there's some talent on the defense erring then comes in scheme some stuff up it's not really it's not really happening so he's just lost like it's like i don't know i mean i always kind of thought it was a weird higher because obviously the lion's defense was like super injury riddled but like were they ever really like good in the last couple of years like i know they've kind of mostly been injured but i can't remember a distinct point where i'm like yeah this lion's defense is like they had a good

run defense for a long time right if i remember correctly a couple years but their secondary just always sucked like they were always really bad um maybe he was personnel but then i don't know it just always kind of seemed like a reach to me that like and he got i mean they got absolutely smoked in the nfc championship game last year by the commanders they were they were down to no one but like i don't know i always kind of thought that was a weird hire for sure it's a couple things right it's the situation where you're hoping that by proxy he takes some of the good stuff that you know juju from being associated with a you know ben jonson and dan campbell he's a former jet um he feels kind of like he's that's kind of the next step for him again we just see

these assistants pulled off of really good coaching staffs winning teams and we don't always necessarily think, especially when it's like one of your former players, you're like, oh, yeah, this is great. Let's bring him back in, build culture around him. And, you know, he's learned a bunch from Dan Campbell and they've been successful. And, you know, it makes sense on paper, but it's not necessarily something that, like, we felt that Aaron Glenn was elevating that to a Super Bowl contending team because of his defensive scheme. You know, we had the pretty bad Bears teams led by Justin Fields show some pretty solid performances

against Aaron Glenn defenses over the years, right? So there's never a situation where we felt like that was just a slam dunk higher. So we'll see. Again, he's been dealt a difficult hand because I don't think we think much of Justin Fields at this point in his career, touched on the defensive injuries. It's going to be, it's kind of a fascinating one. His quotes are hilarious though. They're funny.

Like his quotes, you know, just like, we got, what did he say? He's like, we got to learn how to win or we got to learn how to not lose before we win or something like that. I kind of get what he's saying. You're saying like, you're very Yogi Berra. Yeah. Yeah, I get it.

But it's, it sounds, it reads poor for sure. Yeah. And look, Miami, it looked okay. No Tyreek.

Man, they dusted off Darren Waller, Connor, for multiple touchdowns, a red zone threat, Darren Waller. But as bad as it is, they are only one-point favorites,

basically, against Carolina, who are a true. I mean, the Patriots absolutely wrecked the Panthers who were pretty terribly unit. That's a rough football game. Yeah. Continue to keep it rolling in Miami?

I mean, I think so, honestly. I know another service played Dolphins plus one this morning. And so they were underdogs. Like they were underdogs because the Panthers. So, yeah, we're looking at minus one. I think that's still decent. The dolphins are definitely very bad. but the Panthers have been

I mean really like I don't think we've seen even the 30 point winning against Atlanta like I don't think that there was ever that many points in the game where I was like oh like this is they got their mojo like they're in a groove it just seemed to be kind of like randomness and like pick sixes and special

teams shit and they're like two good drives so it's been really bad mostly through four games if you wanted to pour some cold water on my Drake May optimism it wasn't happening against the Panthers So we need to see it against other teams, but Craig May looked really good against the pretty terrible Panthers team. So you know what I really like?

I like the over in New Orleans. Giants, Saints, and there can be some pace up spots here. And there's, you know, both teams have kind of sneaky hangarounds mojo. I think the Saints showed pretty well against Buffalo for most of that game. It was inevitable at some point where it's really hard for the bills Probably to get up for the Saints coming to town It was almost three score favorites But we're a little light on the total here

So 40 and a half on Draft Kings Minus 115 we've already seen Bookmaker Pinnacle Circa already out to 41 Fandul of 41 and a half So yeah I mean look I'd feel a lot better About the Giants prospects offensively They had elite neighbors but I think they can score some points in this one And, yeah, I mean, I think that they can create some pressure and be a problem as well. So I kind of like the Giants in the game, too.

But I think the over is one of my favorite looks at the board. So it feels gross, but kind of one of my liens. It's a gross over. There's a lot of play volume for sure. So that's like kind of one of the things that I think is going to be interesting, no matter what. Like, I mean, yeah, the Giants are in 69 plays last week. Yeah, I think decent amount of no-huddle, decent amount. of yeah they were quick i think like 22 and a half seconds per play or something like that by far

the fastest of the week i mean that's awesome that's fun that's what you know dreams are made of so is it going to be efficient don't know but both defense is up so um that's you know it could get there i mean saints are running a lot of plays too like that's thing 65 last week against the bills like the the play volume is going to be massive in this game so i don't know attempts over on props for both guys well maybe rattler more so than dart but maybe not i don't know i mean just because dart runs so much i'm just to see what all these numbers come out because like overall i think you take you know crazy to say some overs with these shit teams but uh i don't mind it yeah play volume and kill you and again early in that

game the saints have been very very quick uh pace but early in the game that you could tell they were intentional they were trying to shorten that football game right let's run the football let's play slow so they actually had one of their slower week compared to the rest of how they played and it made sense like your best chance to win that football game in buffalo is to just limit Josh Allen's time on the fields right so they tried didn't work but it worked for a little bit at least kept them in the game and kept it at least a little bit competitive yeah second second most place per game overall 67.8 on the season so yeah and they were first heading into the end of the week so a little bit of it even even though they played slower they still had a ton of play volume in that game the way it kind of bared out so yeah uh pads have taken a little bit of money on the road sunday nights uh against the bills we're going to wear their white out uniforms we'll see didn't work with penn state we'll see if it works for buffalo um seven and a half i mean this is ten isish in a look aheads uh there was new england to have a chance in buffalo uh no i don't think so i'm not

i'm not i'm not ready to jump ship because they dropped a big one on the on the panthe here we haven't really seen a ton that i love from the patriots so far i think may's playing a little bit better digs is playing more if i you know saw it better so that's good he was yeah um like they said they're going to work him in more and they actually did which is cool just i just don't want to overreact it all the last week and i think the bills are still really really good now you know patriots get back christian gonzalez that helps but like i think that helps in more scenarios than this one because like i mean who's he covering like keon coleman or some loser like it doesn't it doesn't matter like you know what i mean

like the bills don't win because they have awesome like one awesome wide out they win because they have like six guys that can kind of get open sometimes you know and superman yeah what you like it's just josh i agree i like what we saw from new england but this is a tough spot against a really good bills football team and they are huge favorites to be like the number one seen the AFC at this three or four weeks, just kind of wild. Again, the seas have kind of spread for that when you think of the other teams with, you know, the slow start for the Chiefs, Ravens falling apart, you know, the Harders look like, you know, it could be starting four and O, but they fall and lose one to the Giants.

So it's really, and knowing what's remaining on the schedule for the bills, they are, you know, I think deserved, deserved favorites there. So anything else on the week four board before we touch base on some future stuff before we wrap? Thursday night football, Niners, Rams, under 47 and a half could be interesting. Again, just how many injuries the Niners have, like could get Mac Jones, could get no Pierce all, injured Jennings, like, it's a lot for the Niners to put up points there. It's up to six and a half on the spread. Like, if we got the seven with Mack Jones starting, I'd probably consider seven on the Niners.

But, yeah, I also don't know if the Rams are just going to drop like 30, you know, or like 27 on them on the Niners either. just kind of see this more of like a I don't know 2417 type of game or something like that instead of 47 and a half seemed like a lot so I kind of lean under there yeah I also kind of like like Seattle against Tampa Bay three okay some three and a halfs out there to tough travel spot tough match up for a box team it's beating up a little bit I think that Seattle's probably the right side there they get some rest that's kind of a good spot there too so like the three three and a half like a little bit less

but definitely you think Seattle is probably the right side there and same with the Chargers Chargers at home against the commanders doesn't really matter to me who is a quarterback for the commanders obviously Jane Daniels is better for them and this feels like a Jane Daniels line based off of the total as well and he seems

at least kind of close to coming back last week we'll obviously have more on Wednesday and we get that information but Chargers at three are a side that I like as well so all right quick a few run down. As I mentioned, Bill's comfortably favorite to win pretty much everything at this point. They are as high as 440 on Fandall to win the Super Bowl. The Eagles are next there at 700 on

Draft King is the best price for Philadelphia, Green Bay, Phil at 850, Detroit, 9, Kansas City at 10. Ravens have fallen now a little bit all the way to 13 on MGM. Rams, Chargers, not too far behind. to take a dip down to the Niners, but any Super Bowl thoughts, anything that jumps out to you, whether it's Super Bowl, AFC, NFC, anywhere you want to take it. I mean, I think good by the Chiefs here, 10 to 1 win the Super Bowl is not bad on Fandall. You can get them to win the division plus 155. Like, Xavier Worthy makes a big difference for them. Rishie Rice coming back in a couple weeks.

Like that makes a massive difference for them too. So I think when you look at all these factors here, you look at the charters, losing both of their best offense of linemen like two elite guys there like the chiefs are going to find ways to win games no matter what and like i think kind of make their way to the playoffs um but now it's like if they can get right at the same time as their competition not you know getting injured uh i think it's a good by low spot here with the chiefs but i don't know other than that i think there's a lot of other teams already saw like kind of a big uptick here i'm not sure there's like i look maybe commanders is like an interesting bylo in nfc if you think like jane danes

coming back but I'm just like not really that's sold on the rest of the team so I don't know yeah kind of out on the commander still want to find ways to uh to kind of short time especially I just don't believe the defense is even close to good enough to be competitive or like a real real playoff threats um a FC South is interesting Colts moved a little bit of a fandwell still holding out as a pretty good number of plus 110 to win the AFC South Jags obviously shorter with the Colts lost the jags win there in week four jags at plus one 30 out on caesars kind of separating obviously the titans are not involved in this discussion all the way at 160 to 1 you can get a 7 to 1 160 to 1 to win the division after four weeks is wild yeah yeah um 7 to 1 for the texans

uh again i've been hesitant on the colts not because i don't believe just because I thought there was just kind of a unique setup but give me the Colts over the Jags for sure I think you kind of agree Yeah that's what I had I had them in my notes It's like another potential like spot here Plus one ton of fan dulings Great look to win the division

Over the long run I think they're going to keep winning more games Than Jags and the Jags are gonna But not surprise me to see the Jags Just like completely face plant honestly like certain points about the year Even thinking about where we're going to come out of week five Based off some of the things that we touched on You know, the Colts are seven-point favorites at home against the Raiders who have looked pretty terrible.

Gino's struggled in Jacksonville. Again, I like Jacksonville to lose probably by margin of the chiefs there. So all of a sudden, just a little bit of pre-CLV getting ahead of where this could look a week from now. It's probably a pretty good spot. AFC West is interesting. Chargers still are your favorites, a plus 110. And still 155s out there on the Chiefs.

And again, the Chargers have the leg up, three in one, three wins in the division. Those are pretty impactful, though the Chiefs still have a couple Broncos games ahead of them. Broncos at 540 out on Caesars. Any AFC West thoughts? Yeah, I think Chiefs are still good bylaw, as I mentioned, with the Super Bowl stuff. So I'm adding this. That would be also my, it's like my second other feature that I thought was interesting there. Yeah, I like that there.

NFC, or NFC East is tough because the Eagles are really the only team there. 3.30 is a price that neither of us are dying to lay. What do you make it? I kind of touched on the Packers. We didn't go at length. They're 110 now, plus 110 to win the north, Detroit right behind. Plus 115, 120 right there. Minnesota 10 to 1, which is fascinating.

But what are your kind of thoughts on what we've seen from the Packers in the Lions last couple weeks? I mean, Packers have not looked great the last couple weeks. It's, it's, it's, it's, I've been a little bit tough there, but I still. 40 points without CD Lam seems like something that I did not have on the makeup card. Yeah, yeah, impossible. Micah was getting like doubled or like, you know, basically every time. They clearly had a plan for him.

The rest of the defense couldn't do anything. I, I don't know. It just seemed like a very wild event. And we're not getting like that much of a discount right now. like the lions are still a good team so it's not something I'm interested in the division if you want to play packers plus 460 NFC if you want to play lions NFC I think that makes sense in my mind those are the two probably best buying points at this point other than them maybe the Rams if you want to go there but I don't really like anyone else in the NFC overall and like the Eagles again I think are good but I've just like there's been some weird underlying metrics that make me think they're not as good as like their record says right now yeah I kind of agree with that. NSY West, the other one that's interesting. The Rams,

there's a big one going on. Obviously Thursday night will impact that quite a bit. And the Seahawks not too far behind at 4 to 1. The market's also not buying like Cardinal stuff, even though the record's okay. There's as long as 19 to 1 to win the division, which is, yeah, it's just not, it's not pretty. I mean, they're eight and a half point favorites.

I mean, it's between seven and a half, eight and a half point favorites this week against the Titans. like what a disgusting game to bet on i can not fathom taking either side in that game uh with any sort of conviction right just at the under yeah 41 it's just it's it's rough um yeah it's not great so 19 those seems surprisingly large to me but uh again i don't think they i think they're comfortably the worst team in that division and that division's pretty solid I don't necessarily think that the Niners are going to be down forever, currently down. You know, the Rams, I think Stafford's still upright for now, right?

Yeah, like, that's funny when you think about it. Like, this division could completely flip on a dime here. Like, if Stafford gets injured and pretty healthy tomorrow, like, yeah, immediately the Niners are, like, big favorites. Or if the Niners keep getting injured and the Rams get injured, maybe the Seahawks become, like, you know, like make a run. That's also possible. Yeah. so i think seattle at four to one is still pretty interesting not anything that i'm dying about right now but definitely something

to monitor feels maybe off relative to how i think of that team compared to where they are price-wise so all i got anything else for us any other notes anything else you want to share get off your chest no i don't think so um i'm excited for the friday show i have some more props then and yeah i need some slop juju in my life you know to get back on track track here i think yeah i want to thank garret wilson for running real hot for me last night it was amazing it was amazing i actually wasn't even like really sweating it because i just didn't think it was happening because justin fields was playing so poorly like how we're not even targeting

like gary wilson then i'm like i look and like oh well you you you drop back to pass like 10 times like it's barely it's barely actually happened uh it's been so bad so we got there and the touchdown i'm like hey, let's just, you know, get a couple of years, just kind of dink and then they throw a 30-yard touchdown to him. Like, oh, we're dead. I didn't need the touchdown. I need one more catch. Get the ball on the one with two seconds left.

Try a little pitchy, pitchy woo, but it started with a Garrett Wilson reception, just waiting for the scorekeeper to do it right. We got home. Amazing. It felt good. Yeah, amazing. So I'll keep the juju going here. We're going to con it on the juju side.

Hey, I was in the spa last year. I could not catch a win for the life of me. like weeks three through five last year and look at the end of the year you finish up 30 units like just you're going to do it too it's just going to make this next little uh two months even more glorious so people want to get in now before you know the ride starts you don't want to jump in in a week or two after connor's already caught up 10 units you know you want to get in now now now is the time to buy low i mean oh jake was like eight and one this week uh i think i was like five and five so it's definitely that wasn't like a you know blood bath by any means you know lost a

bit on the juice. Hunter had a good week too. Yep. Yeah. And you were probably up to, I'm sure. I don't know. Yeah. I went four and two. Yeah. On officials, uh, tackles that I play. We need to get tackle these books back on the wagon here. But, uh, the tackles that I had put. They don't want. They don't want your action, huh? They don't want anyone's action. I guess on tackles anymore. Yeah. But post them an extra play. It's been six and four. Not a great week on the tackles. But yeah, we need to get, although I did have the one. So six and four, but Sandra Gray. me with my spot. It doesn't feel like a winning week

on the Sadra grade and the tackles. But under five and a half on a guy that dropped 17 tackles on my face. So pretty tough scene for crazy. We'll get back on the wagon. So again, appreciate everyone hanging out with us.

Again, move the line where you listen to podcasts. We're live on the YouTube channel. This again will be on Mondays moving forward at 3 p.m. Eastern. And then Friday's 3 p.m. Eastern when we come back with Slot for Prop Drop. So take advantage of that free seven-day trial

of Sharpstack. I think you will enjoy it. We'd appreciate your feedback as well. And again, nice little thing. That's it. Seven days. Free. There's nothing else. Check it out. We'd appreciate that. So we'll be back on Friday. Same bad time. Same bad channel. For Connor. I'm Ryan. We'll see you on next time. Thanks, everybody.