Move The Line - What is the Truth About These NFL Teams in 2023!?

Episode Date: June 22, 2023

The crew breakdown a few NFL teams that are extremely volatile in 2023. These teams have the upside to be playoff contenders, but the downside of being one of the worst teams in the league. Find out which scenario is more likely for these teams and how that could lead to profits by betting correctly!Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

People love hot takes, scorching, face-melting hot takes. It's not our specialty here at 444, nor is it something that the three of us really spend any time trying to drum up for engagement. But this episode of Move the Line is going to be about as hot takey as we get. On today's show, we're going to lean into a little bit of the high-variance nature of the National Football League. Each going to go around. We're going to highlight a tail outcome, one good and one bad,

heading into the 2023 season. Should be a fun one. Let's dig in. Hello and welcome to Move Align. I'm Ryan Noonan, joined here, as always, by Connor Allen and Sharp Clark. Clark, what's going on, buddy? How are you doing today? Doing well. Excited to talk about tail outcomes and get all nerdy about some teams that might not be who we think they are. Yeah, it'll be fun. Connors is, like I said, that's not a specialty of ours. We've been doing this for a very long time. We are data-driven and try to be pretty measured. We're not out here farming for, well, I don't know, you get your hand dirty in the farming. But in terms of like, not from a hot take team or player standpoint, but this one should be a little bit interesting. Yeah. And I'm excited for this show because I think talking through some of these teams and

like understanding the range of outcomes is really important as I'm sure Sharp will explain here in a second, but also I have NBA draft news going on side by side while we're doing this show like crazy. So if you see me spacing out here for a second, it's because I'm absolutely just going crazy, like hammering some stuff. So my apologies in advance. Pop it in the private chat so we can tail along here so we don't miss anything in case anything is breaking.

Of course, we want to remind you to be here every week leading up to the start of the season. Lots of other great original content on our new 4 for 4 Bets YouTube page. Please subscribe there if you want to support the free content uh likes comments thumbs up on the videos goes a long way in helping us do so uh jump in the chat let us know what your hottest take is for this upcoming season love to hear from you still obviously available in podcast form as well subscribe there too so you don't miss a show five stars thumbs up all those things go a long way Clark I will kick it to you though first before we jump into things here we've already there too so you don't miss a show. Five stars, thumbs up, all those things go a long way.

Clark, I will kick it to you though first before we jump into things here. We've already discussed this a little bit from like a 50,000 foot view in some of our future shows early this season. I know I let off with a tidbit around hot takes, but this is really much more than that. And I think it's a really important exercise to go through before the season starts. Can you expand on that a little bit for us? Yeah, the premise of this show is that making futures bets is about more than one question. So many people talk about, well, I like this team relative to market. I don't like this team relative to market. And that's only one aspect of futures betting. The next aspect is, okay, what does the range of outcomes look like? Because that might inform exactly which market you want to invest in. Because we've got win total markets, we've got divisional markets, Super Bowl, conference,

ultimate win totals, miss or make playoffs. There's so many ways to play it, even ancillary bets like MVP and Coach of the Year, that I think it's not enough to just say, I like this team or I don't like this team. You have to think about what key questions will define the team's outcome and are there ways to capture that value if the answer to one of those questions leads to what we call a fat tail outcome, which is basically a wider range of outcomes on one side

than the other or an abnormal distribution of outcomes. So that's what today is about, is just talking about teams that might fit that description and how we might go about playing that. And, you know, it may be that you listen to this and you don't agree with the specific teams that we talk about, but it gets you thinking about maybe another team that you have a specific view on and how you want to play that. That's kind of the target we're going for here. Yeah, like that. I don't have updated have updated data and we talked about it on the futures showing we got into win totals front of the show um drew dinsic whale capper did some research on this a couple years ago so i don't know what the updated data is but you've typically seen like one and a half to two games range around the accuracy of win totals so like

yeah theoretically you can get down some decent money here this is an nfl market that can be a little bit sharper than others but they're not necessarily like sides and totals type sharp there's still some edges to be found here and as clark talked about they're looking at ways to get down on teams that you like in other ways whether it's you know through coach of the year market like in that show when we talked about win totals like clark and i were both talking about the dolphins and interest there but it's like hey can we go through like jalen phillips defensive player of the year or mike mcdaniel coach of the year are there other ways to get down on something that kind of is aligned with that thinking today we're going to be a little bit more team specific we'll get into that here in a second just want to remind you too

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All right, gentlemen, I'll kick it back to you, Clark, and let you get cover with the betting subscription at 444. All right, gentlemen, I'll kick it back to you, Clark, and let you get started with your first team here. And you can go whatever you want to do, good or bad. We each have one good and one bad team in terms of the tail outcomes here. Let's start optimistic. I'm going to start with the Atlanta Falcons. This is a team that has a wide range of outcomes on both sides, really. I mean, we have a team led by a quarterback that we don't know a lot about. We only saw four games of professional play from him at the end of the year last year. He wasn't a super high draft pick or some kind of slam dunk QB prospect. So that immediately sets the stage for a wide range of outcomes. When we look at teams in the past few years that have vastly exceeded expectation, the Eagles last year, the Bengals the year before come to mind as two examples.

We look at certain players in certain positions that are entering years where they tend to perform better than they have in the past. So wide receivers. So many times we see receivers make a massive jump from year one to year two. And we've got Drake London on the Falcons making that move from rookie year to second year in the pros. You know, tight end, second and third year is a big year for them to really step into who they can be. Kyle Pitts is entering his third year. Running backs can make an impact in their rookie year. And we got Bijan Robinson, highly touted running back, making his debut in the NFL. So the pieces are there for a good offense. We know the offensive line is good.

We know the scheme is good. Arthur Smith has been coaching good offenses that rely on good offensive line play and a good run game for years. Now we've got the pieces to make that happen. The question is, can Desmond Ritter put it together and be at least a league average quarterback? And the other thing I want to look for when I'm looking at tail outcomes is strength of schedule, right? Because if the Falcons are good, their schedule is terrible. So I'm terrible. I mean, the opponents are projected to be bad. So if they're good, then they should be able to reel off wins, especially given their offensive structure, which is to rely on the run game and play action. Those kinds of teams perform well when they play with the lead. So if they're beating up on these

bad teams, they're going to gain momentum, gain confidence. We saw it with the Eagles last year. Their offense came out of nowhere, and all of a sudden they were just rolling opponents because they had the pieces in place in such a strong offensive line. So I think that's the potential for the Falcons offense. Defensively, and this goes back to the Eagles last year and the Bengals the year before. Both of those teams made a series of acquisitions on defense, individual players, none of whom were superstar game breakers in their own right, but just compounding effects of having capable players on defense and leadership. The Falcons added Bud Dupree, Jesse Bates, David Onyemata, Calais Campbell, Jeff Okuda, Mike Hughes. Their defense was really

bad last year and should be materially better just by all of these additions. And so we've got a team that is primed to improve at all the key positions, primed to improve on defense, and a massive question mark at quarterback. So all it takes is Desmond Ritter to step into the role and they can be an 11-12- 13 win team against that schedule. So of course, now we're talking about Desmond Ritter. I watched the film. I really liked what I saw at the end of the year. His pocket presence and movement was excellent.

He looked really, really bad in his first game on the road against a very good defense in the Saints, struggled a little bit on the road against a very good defense in the Ravens and then played well in the last two games. I think that we saw enough to expect him to take a step forward, and I think the Falcons agree with me, which is why they weren't in the quarterback market this offseason. So I'm expecting that to be a fatter tail outcome than people think, and if I want to play the Falcons, I think I'm leaning into that variance and trying to capture that high upside.

Yeah, the division is wide open too, Connor. Your thoughts on the Falcons? I know it's been something that Clark has been kind of ringing the bell very early here on the, on the Falcons. And the more and more I've heard him talk through his points, the more I've, uh, I definitely have come on board. Yeah. I'm not entirely sold on the saints just from a team perspective as well. So I think that there's a couple of holes there with them. I'm definitely not sold on the Panthers generally, uh, kind of with what they have there, especially in their passing game, I think might be a little bit rough to start off. So yeah, I could definitely see it. I think that the market is moved significantly

since you originally got in at seven and a half now, eight and a half. So like, I wonder what like the true upside of this Falcons team is with, I mean, relative to market, like, do we think that there's an outcome where they win like 12 games, 13 games? I mean, is that for me, that's tough to imagine, but at the same time, like if the defense, I think the biggest thing for me will be like twofold Desmond Ritter. Can he take a massive step forward? And if he is good, I think it's very much impossible. And if the defense takes a step forward, then I mean, yeah, I think it's very much at range. I think we were saying the same things about the Eagles last year. Last year in the offseason, the Eagles win total was eight and a half.

And a lot of people were saying the same things like, yeah, sure, they got A.J. Brown, but Jalen Hurts just isn't it. He's just not the quarterback to take them there. And by the end of the season, that looks silly. And I'm not saying that Desmond Ritter is Jalen Hurts, but I am saying that Desmond Ritter has Jalen Hurts within his range of outcomes. Yeah. And I think as you kind of laid it out, the structure in which you're to have one of these tail outcomes, Oh, sign coming down is, is a really, really like it's there. It's, it's there for the taking in terms of technicalities here in terms of what leads to these events, similar to what happened with the Eagles last year too. So Connor, what's your first one here?

Yeah, my first one is going to be with Washington Commanders. We touched on it a little bit last week, kind of with my bet in week one. And the more that I dug into it, the more I thought that it was interesting about kind of the potential for this team. And a lot of it has to do with the offense specifically because the addition of Eric Bien-Ami,

I think is extremely underrated. And when you're looking at how all the weapons plan together, you have Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, plus Logan Thomas, I think is a little bit underrated as well at tight end. And we've seen offensive coaching in the past. I think the biggest knock on so many quarterbacks, whether it be Jared Goff with Sean McVay or, you know, Kyle Shanahan leading some jabronis to having a great yards per attempt, or, you know, Mike McDaniel with Tua, you know, like, I don't think anyone thinks Tua is like an awesome quarterback, but with great weapons and amazing scheming, like he's able to get

something done. And now you have Eric Bien-Ami where I don't think that necessarily like the median outcome here for this Washington team for the offense is super high, but like if, I mean, almost every year we see a team or an offense that just significantly surprises others. And in hindsight, it's like, okay, well they got a new office coordinator. They actually have decent weapons. And maybe if the quarterback is decent, like, or at least competent enough to execute a scheme, we can see kind of like that high end range of outcomes here. So I think for the offense is just like extremely volatile. Now I think the downside is also very low if Sam Howell is not good, but the upside, if Eric B enemy can kind of mold him into something good is I think fairly high, at least from a offense perspective, like a fringe top 10 offense, if all goes well.

And from a defense, defensive perspective, I think they're expected to lose chase young, but he didn't play last year at all. Their numbers were still great without him. They added a good bit here as well. Added Cody Barton as a linebacker, drafted Emmanuel Forbes, who's expected to start. And they lost a safety Bobby McCain. But other than that, they were really, I mean, they were strong. They were fringe top 10 in basically every single metric. And that was despite only forcing 18 turnovers, which is the seventh fewest last year. So like any more turnover luck, I think they could push them even higher if their defense, I mean, if they retain Chase Young, I think they're

in a fantastic spot and the offense can click. I mean, like, I think there's a legitimate chance where they're winning significantly more than their win total, which is only six and a half right now. So like you can bet them to make the playoffs at, in a week, you know, NFC at like plus 300, something you could bet them to win, to have a winning record, which is essentially over eight and a half. I didn't shop this, but DK was like plus two 80 or something like that. Um, and you might be able to find better alternate numbers closer to the season, but I think that there's a lot of ways that this team could be decent. And maybe even like above average, especially if the Eagles regressed at all, if the Cowboys regressed at all. And I think that the Giants, I mean, had one of the best seasons ever given

their talent and schedule last year. So I think that's like almost certain to regress. So all those factors together, like I think that this team could easily win eight, nine games and you're getting like plus 300 and that for a lot of reasonable outcomes. Yeah. Same Clark state in the, in the NFC, you are there. I'm going to go there as well. And I think that's part of it too, is because the wide the NFC is significantly more wide open in terms of, you know, the ability to get to the top, you know, versus the, you know,

the AFC got the path of those quarterbacks is, is very, very difficult. Clark, any thoughts you want to expand on the commanders here? Yeah. I want to point out something that applies to both mine and Conner's, and that's... We're getting some calls during the show here. I want to talk about something that applies to both mine and Conner's, which is that both Desmond Ritter and Sam Howell, a lot of people, especially sort of people that look at data of young quarterbacks and mapping out expectations, they use draft capital and draft round as a predictor of how good a quarterback is. And so you say, well, Desmond Ritter is a third round quarterback, somehow it's a fifth round quarterback.

But quarterback in particular is so heavily skewed by which teams want a quarterback in a given year. And so what we saw in last year's draft was all these bad teams had invested in quarterback the year before and hadn't given up on those quarterbacks. So there just wasn't an appetite for quarterbacks. And that push that has a major impact on where quarterbacks are drafted. So Desmond Ritter was the second quarterback off the board. Sam Howell, I think was fifth. I'm not a hundred percent sure how it went in fourth and fifth round, but basically the point is these quarterbacks might be better than we think they are based just on saying what round they were drafted in. And that applies to both Ritter and Howell. Yeah. I just think we have no idea with Sam Howell. Also, they like committed to him super early, which I mean, I don't know how much

you really want to take away from that. But I mean, they've said pretty much, even though they had Jacoby Bursette, like, Hey, Sam Howell's our guy going forward with that. And I think that even having Jacoby Bursette there, like almost raises their floor. Like if Sam Howell is not good, like, I mean, we know Jacoby can be like adequate, like adequate i guess you know in terms of a like low-end starter uh and so i don't know i mean i guess that doesn't necessarily help the tail end outcome here but i do think there are reasonable outcomes here where sam howell could be okay yeah i mean you go back to the pedigree coming in you know the season before like the sam howell stuff was like, can Sam Howell go number one overall? Right. Like there was like, that was a discussion that had been had at times previously.

So like, yeah, obviously things happened at UNC for him to slide and, you know, he could have done things to get himself drafted a little bit higher, but like, this is definitely a guy, at least in the NFL circles within the last three years could have been

projected to a, you know, a first round pick. So to Clark's point, I don't think it's something that you need to put a nail in someone's coffin before we really see the reps in that scenario. So, yeah, the Eric B. enemy stuff, that can't hurt. Sam Howell's good weapons average to a slightly above-average offensive line, and, yeah, the defense could take a step forward.

Chase Young could be gone in the future, but you're probably going to get Chase Young this year. And they're probably pretty motivated, Chase Young, if he can stay healthy, right? And that's a pretty good, you know, Montez Sweat is a stud, probably one of the more underrated defensive heads in the entire league, even without Chase Young, an elite, elite front four. So, yeah, I like the plays.

I know I'm going to have a little bit of agreement here on mine. We're going to stay in the NFC, and I'm going to go with a quarterback with a ton of unknown that actually has first-round capital, and that is the Green Bay Packers. And again, there's a lot of variance here, and that's the entire premise, but the bones with this team are very, very good.

And I think there's been a lot of unknowns and a lot of narratives that have kind of been the prevailing narrative with Jordan Love is that he's basically trash. The kids made one start in two years. It was on the road in Kansas City on short notice after Aaron Rodgers had COVID. Really tough spot, right? And he wasn't great, but we saw a little bit of glimmer last year. He didn't play a lot.

He took like 20 snaps, you know, had a really nice like half against Philly. There's just a lot of unknowns here, right? There's just not a lot of game film to go off. He's going to be playing in front of an excellent offensive line. You know, David Bakhtiari is really crucial here. He was awesome last year in limited role, like didn't allow a sack or a hit, like 340 pass blocking snaps or something like that. He's, you know, his injury allowed them to get a look at some other guys. Zach Tom was awesome last year. He's going to be able to move over to right tackle. They're going to move Elgin Jenkins to left guard.

Like if they can get Jenkins and Bakhtiari and play 15, 17 games, that's probably one of the best left side offensive lines in the league. Love has a level of mobility that we haven't seen from Rodgers over the last handful of years. That's going to allow them to do some more things there too. They have the running joke with the Packers, how they just refuse to draft offensive talent in the first round. They've loaded up on defensive guys. They're going to be starting eight first round picks on the defensive side of the ball. All guys that they've drafted and developed over the past

six years, two of those guys barely played last year. Eric Stokes missed a ton of time. Jair Alexander, former All Pro, missed a bunch of time last season. Wasn't really shocking to see them disappoint, but this could be a top five defense if they stay healthy. Offensively, yes, they punted on day one talent, but they've gone hard on day two. If they keep Josiah DeGura as their third tight end, fairly irrelevant, but they probably do. He is the only guy on their roster at wide receiver or tight end that will not be in their first or second year. This is a very, very, very young team with a young quarterback. We've seen some pro Jordan Love stuff from Jair Alexander in the media. He doesn't have to pump his tires like that. He'd just stay quiet if Jordan Love was struggling a little bit through practice.

So I'm just encouraged. The schedule is also very soft. We talk about the unique three. They play the Rams. They play at the Giants. And they play at Pittsburgh. So again, it's an open division. And I just think, again, like 7.5 win total I think is not the right way to do it.

9.5 at plus money, like plus 275. Or I know Clark has been kind of driving the bandwagon with the division here, I think still available at five to one. So Clark, tell me why I'm right on the Packers. Yeah. Also it's not available anymore, but 30 to one to win the NFC was, was one of my favorite bets of the off season for Packers. Yeah. I mean, Aaron Rodgers played at a probably league average quarterback level last year. And so when you're talking about the transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love, there's a possibility that Jordan Love is a league average quarterback, in which case the expectation should be the same as last year. And they disappointed with, I think, nine wins. So yeah, I mean, the upside is there. This is similar to Desmond Ritter in that the surroundings

are there, the coaching is there, the schedule is there. This is similar to Desmond Ritter in that the surroundings are there. The coaching is there. The schedule is there. It just requires Jordan Love to step into being a competent NFL quarterback and building that confidence and trust. And if he does, the ceiling is very high. Yeah. Connor, were you on the Packers or anything in the NFC North, I guess? Yeah.

I mean, you guys are giving me a lot of shit for not being on board the Packers. I mean, the win totals. Well, I was catching some strays on Twitter. I mean, there was, the win total is like seven and a half. I think it's probably a little bit underrated. We already talked about week one against the Bears. You know, like I think if that gets to plus three, I also think too that like they can offensively just rely on the running game if they really want to with their offensive

line. Like they don't necessarily have to throw Jordan Love into a situation like Aaron Rodgers, like Aaron Rodgers on a lot of like third and shorts and things like that would just take matters in his own hands. Like, you know, I don't know. It's just, I don't think that they need to do that necessarily. So like I am interested in the Packers. It's just not a team where I'm ecstatic. I guess a five to one to win the division. I think that the lions are a little bit overrated. The bears are almost certainly overrated. And the Vikings, I go back and forth in their team that I was not able to get a good

grasp on last year, to be entirely honest. So, yeah, I don't, I don't hate it. It's not something I love, but I think that I'm also kind of a Christian Watson hater,

to be honest. I think he's kind of a scrub. He's, I don't know if you heard. He's better than Justin Jeffersonerson do you see that on twitter side apparently yeah more upside it's all during love's floor is justin fields yeah and i do like uh i do like romeo dobbs and uh they drafted jayden reed as well i actually think that that receiving core is pretty solid but like if justin watson can do anything you know yeah one

thing i'm I'm a little bit skeptical about is is when Rashawn Gary will be back healthy that he's an important part of their defense and big time hopefully it doesn't take him too long to get up to speed yeah I saw him he was on the NFL network the other day and he was talking about and again like a very rare you're going to get a player telling you that he's behind schedule um but he's you know saying that he's I had a schedule and very encouraged so i do think he is it makes a big big difference but yeah i mean yeah look i mean there's a lot of variance in having that young of a pass catching core uh so like that's kind of the nature of this beast in terms of pairing that guy with a very inexperienced quarterback

but the upside is there like i think jayden reed to slide in the slot is really nice romeo dobbs kind of hit the ground running last year. And yeah, like there were concerns about Christian Watson being more of a shorts and t-shirt guy than actually like an NFL football player. But man, it was pretty good when he was out there. And again, you know, we're joking about the hyperbole in terms of like someone saying

that he has the upside of Justin Jefferson. But the premise is that there's definitely some untapped potential there, which is why he went where he did in the draft, basically playing Division II football. So there's just, again, the bones are really, really good. And if Jordan Love is adequate, and again, we have like the Ewing theory to be applied here.

I'm not sure if you guys are familiar with the Ewing theory. It's an old school Bill Simmons NBA theory around basically when you remove this like giant piece that kind of hovers over the organization. It's a key player, something like it's just kind of like it's an air that's lifted off of the organization. And like, look, I'm not going to think he run two MVPs very recently, Aaron Rodgers. I'm not here to say disparaging things about him, like not talking about the Jets in a bad way necessarily. I'm just saying like he's a bigger than life personality who's a very eccentric guy and adds a unique element

in terms of leadership in that locker room. Then that was very different and seems to be something that, again, is not something that we're going to find running EPA per play numbers or anything like that. But it just could be something that's again, is not something that we're going to find running EPA per play numbers or anything like that. But it just could be something that's happened in the locker room. Right. When you, you get, you know, Jamie Tartt's head, right. It's a very dynamic, different dynamic for, you know, AFC Richmond.

Like it just, you know, the locker room thing does matter that I know we can't equate that typically on, you know, in football games, but I think Aaron Rogers being removed makes a difference. Soccer reference. Soccer reference. Soccer reference. Big soccer guy. TV show reference.

Fictional soccer reference. You turned down going to the men's national team game this Saturday. I didn't directly turn down the invite. I was, I think, passively uninvited because I don't appreciate the game. But yeah. Yeah. Scott mentioned in the chat, I should be careful that Aaron Rodgers is going to cast a spell on me. Yeah, he's, you know, look,

I remember the first time I took mushrooms. It was pretty cool. He apparently waited a little bit longer in life to do it. And, you know, he's had a lot of awakening. And yeah, I mean, I'm excited for him. You know, it's a fun ride. And I hope that he has good access to that in New York. So now we'll be pessimistic, Clark, we will shift to teams on the tail end, that could be worse than

expected. All right, let's talk about the New York football giants. Last year, they were very, very fortunate to achieve the record that they achieved. And part of that was incredible coaching by Brian Dayball, Coach of the Year. Sorry to everyone who bet on Sirianni. But no, the thing about Coach of the Year is it typically is an award given to a coach for a team that vastly outperforms its actual ability. And so I went back and looked. In 21, Vrabel won it at 12 and 5. The following year, they were 7 and 10. In 20, Stefanski won it at 11 and 5. Following year, they're back and looked. In 21, Vrabel won it at 12-5. The following year, they were 7-10.

In 20, Stefanski won it at 11-5. Following year, they were 8-9. Harbaugh won it in 19, 14-2. Next year, 11-5. Matt Nagy, 12-4, went to 8-8. McVay was the only one. He went from 11-5 to 13-3. He did improve.

Garrett, 13-3 to 9-7. Rivera, 15-1 to 6-10. So in almost every case, the year after a team's coach wins coach of the year, that team vastly underperforms, loses four plus more games in most cases. And with the Giants last year, they beat the Titans. They came back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter. They needed a fourth down conversion and a two-point conversion to win that. They had a last-second field goal against Carolina. They needed two late turnovers from Lamar Jackson to erase a 10-point deficit against the Ravens. They needed a fumble on the goal line from ETN from the Jags,

and the Jags actually ended the game on the Giants' one-yard line, losing by six. They beat Houston, Washington, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Green Bay. So last year, they were Bay. So last year they were very fortunate to be where they were. They got absolutely flummoxed by the Eagles in the playoffs who were a good team, obviously. It was way, it was over. And so there's a chance that the Giants were not nearly as good as people think they were last year. And they haven't really done anything. They kind of were like, oh yeah, Daniel Jones might actually be able to pay him. Who knows if Saquon Barkley is going to be playing.

They reached their peak outcome last year. And so the idea that they're going to have a massive fall this year is definitely within the range of outcomes. Their schedule involves the AFC East, absolutely brutal. Obviously their own division is brutal, especially if Connor is right about the commanders hitting their upside. That's three really tough divisional opponents.

So the floor could fall out for this team. And if Daniel Jones gets hurt, which he's done in every year, except last year, he's a running quarterback who doesn't really protect himself very well. He's had a few concussions, unfortunately. There's just several different ways this team completely falls apart, and I think their perception is inflated by what was basically a fortunate year last year and an incredible coaching job by Brian Dable. Their offense was a little bit gimmicky, relied on a

lot of third and fourth down conversions, a lot of quarterback runs. These things don't tend to be sustainable in the long run. So I'm not necessarily saying that I think the Giants will underperform expectations, but I think if they do, it could be by a large, you know, a large amount. Not only was the offense gimmicky, no offense, Giants fans, the defense was really gimmicky too. It was, you know, a lot of strategic blitzing. And again, like that's when Martindale and he's been really good at that for a very long time and, know it kind of leveraged hey look i have a um depleted secondary very devoid of talent basically at most positions let's scheme ways to kind of hide that and it worked it worked in a really soft schedule um a little bit harder for them this year connor what are your thoughts on the giants yeah the

not to mention the receivers like they did nothing. Like they really truly need like an alpha receiver, I think, to like kind of help Daniel Jones progress. And they just don't have that at all. I mean, so looking at like Paris Campbell, Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, they had a Jalen Hyatt, but he's Mike mostly just like a stretch guy. Uh, and I think with upside, if he pans out, you know, Sterling Shepard, I mean like there's none of these guys are really true difference makers. So that's a big issue for me on this giants team. My only concern with betting against the giants specifically is that like, I was just really impressed how they squeezed out, like basically every single edge that I felt like last year, just in game pregame, like whatever,

whatever it was like, even on like third and shorts, they were always, you know, like picking guys open. Like there was guys just like running open in short distances. And it was one of those things where I it's, it's tough to really, truly understand without like watching the game specifically, because it was just like very apparent that there was always going to be guys open. Like they were every little edge that they could have. They were just squeezing now. Can that regress? I mean, we've seen plenty of coaches have that happen to them. Uh, you know, at one point, uh, Matt Nagy was good. I mean, guys were running wide open in 2018 with Matt Mitchell Trubisky, and he was just air mailing them still.

But, you know, like at least Daniel Jones was completing them. But still, it's like coaches can regress because other teams figure them out. Like it happens all the time. So I'm I agree that I think the Giants regressed to some extent. I just am not sure what that looks like, because they're still from a talent standpoint, like they're not very good. I mean, last year they were coming into the year like one of the worst rosters at least what we thought and then they end up way over performing so i just wonder if that catches up to them here

i agree i don't know how much they drop but like clark said you know if you're right on the commanders i think we think that the cowboys and the eagles are pretty good teams you know that gets a little bit crowded and a little bit harder at least having a battle in the division and make those things happen. So, yeah, I mean, Darren Waller, I guess, is going to be their 1A from a pass catcher standpoint. It was a nice addition for them. But, like, again, that should not –

31-year-old Darren Waller coming off injury. Correct. Yeah. I just wanted to note that he was on the team. But, yeah, I – He matters. Yeah, I agree. I mean, he's an upgrade from what they had last year for sure.

But yeah, I mean, it's a mess. There's six guys and they're all like two B three, a kind of guys, right. They're not necessarily like, you know, there's no one there for sure. So yeah, I don't hate that at all. Uh, Connor, how about you? Who were you a little bit lower on? Yeah. A team that I think that that is just super low downside,

like a ton of downside this year would be the Indianapolis Colts. I think that there's just a ton of questions offensively. The offensive line is probably going to be fine, not going to be elite. They have a little bit of talent,

obviously with Quentin Nelson, but I'm not sure about the depth there. Specifically, they have a couple of holes and I think the pass catchers are a bigger issue than advertised. Michael Pittman is fine, but I don't think he took the step forward that we anticipated last year. Otherwise, we'll get Alex Pierce, who I guess flashed at times,

Isaiah McKenzie, Josh Downs, like a bunch of, I would say unknowns and guys that I'm not particularly excited about. I know that you're interested in Josh Downs, but overall, I think it's kind of middling at best. And if not, maybe kind of like a bottom 12 overall core here. I think Anthony Richardson is going to start week one. And I think that this is a big issue for this team. We've talked about it briefly on here before,

but I think that the inconsistencies that he's going to have in year one is going to be significant. If you go back and watch him, I don't even want to talk about the stats. I don't think the stats truly reflect like who he was. But if we look at just like watching him on a play to play basis against good teams, really struggled. It was, you know, he would have to do something heroic on every single play to make anything happen. There was nothing easy for him and things that were easy for him. He was underthrowing, overthrowing, like things like that. And so the potential is very,

very much there. Like the future is very, very much could be bright, but I think the same thing was said about Josh Allen. The same thing has been said about like Justin Fields. If we look at Josh Allen's rookie year, 52% completion rate, more interceptions and touchdowns, uh, again, kind of similar issues, middling weapons at the time, didn't have awesome surroundings offensively was very inconsistent and they were just okay. You know, and like he had, I would say significantly better team overall around him than a guy like Anthony Richardson. Now I think the good devil's like the devil's advocate argument

is that Shane Steichen can carry them and elevate everything significantly. But in my opinion, that's all you're betting on. Like this is a bet on the Colts. It's just a bet on Shane Steichen figuring it out. And so if that doesn't happen, which I mean, on the flip side of where I said, you know, BNME could be the next McVay could be the next Shanahan. There's also, you know, other scenarios where this guy is not the next quarterback whisper. And the floor in that scenario is complete direct, like train wreck in my mind. It's like a disaster offensively um and then defensively i think they have a couple of issues as well they were fine and according to most metrics but uh you know lost a couple of guys tough linebacker depth uh secondary depth i think

is a little bit weak too so for me yeah so for me i mean i think that this colts team like it it almost entirely depends on shane steichen to me Yeah, I mean, defensively, you have, you know, Stevan Gilmore now in Dallas. You have this, like, hovering Isaiah Rogers stuff around, like, is he going to be suspended? You know, there are gambling rumors. Nothing has really been reported there, but that is, like, a name that's out there pretty regularly at this point.

It's like, you know, something's happening there. And, again, it's already a pretty deep, you know pretty shallow secondary so yeah i mean i am long-term pro anthony richardson i think the upside is immense but i'm not going to argue that the short-term stuff should be anything that we're expecting uh to be dazzling in year one um i do believe in chain stiken i think we've seen that from you know a couple different stops positive in uh la with the chargers really good with the eagles i think that you know, a couple of different stops positive in LA with the chargers really good with the Eagles. And I think that, you know, his Anthony Richardson's best shot is going to be in a scenario here with a solid running game, hopefully if they can get some talent there,

but yeah, I'm with you. I think that there is a pretty, pretty severe floor. Clark, what are your thoughts on the Colts? Yeah, I think people would like to say, well, Shane Steichen did well with Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson is kind of a similar style quarterback. So he's going to like thrive. But people forget to say Shane Steichen did well with the Eagles. Incredibly good offensive line specifically. And that was what allowed Jalen Hurts to play at the level that he played at last year and even the year before. The Colts offensive line is so overrated. Like when I watched the film, they're just getting, you know, bull rushed and it's, there's a chance that the Colts offensive line doesn't even allow Richardson to reach his anywhere close to his ceiling, especially without weapons. So yeah, a lot of reasons for pessimism. I mean, beyond that too, it's like Devonta Smith and AJ Brown

will both be the clear number one on this Colts team. And they don't have either of those guys. Like when you think about it, like who's getting open, like who, who is, who is a true separator on the Colts? Like, I don't see anyone as a guy that's like really consistently getting open and being like Richardson's go-to guy, which there were some studies that came out this week about how having like kind of them like running quarterbacks, leaning on their number one more like guys who don't throw as much. And so i don't know i think that's interesting here who that pans out to being because i think it could be no one like i mean it just could be no one right now yeah i mean even if richardson hits his peak i would think that he'd look like justin fields last year and the bears won three games

because he had nobody else and that's kind of you know there's lots of ways the colts fall well below expectations that's That's fair. I have no problem with that. I'm going to stay in the division, though, too. And I have another soft landing spot. I knew Clark was with me on the Packers. I know Connor's with me here on the Titans. We're going to stay in the division because, again, like,

Connor made the case, like, the good thing for the Colts is that, like, we get the best version of Shane Steichen. And my only real concern in anything Tennessee-wise is mike vrabel simply because he's done it he gets more out of this talent year in and year out because it's always a team i was never really excited about from a roster standpoint and i feel like this is maybe the the bottom um roster wise it's arguably the worst wide receiver group in the league treyaylon Burks has his own question marks. He is definitely a clear one. Otherwise, looking at Racey McMath, Kyle Phillips, and, you know, Walker, you know, that's not very good.

Like, Chika Kwanu is like the second best pass catcher. It's not great. It is, I think, the worst offensive line in the league. Both PFF and Mike Clay at ESPN have them as the 32nd out of 32 offensive lines. It's an absolute issue. I think the Derrick Henry still the dude, I think he's still really good, probably on like the end and the start of the decline. But again, like it gets really hard behind this offensive line. And now you have this mess at quarterback.

Ryan Tannehill probably has a very long leash. There's obviously questions with Will Levis. But again, it's not a safe spot for either of them with the pass catcher group and the offensive line. So it's probably better from a coordinator standpoint. I know we saw a lot of tweets yesterday from Warren Sharp around Todd Downing's inefficiency as an offensive coordinator like i still think you're going to see that stuff i think you're going to see a lot of like running into heavy boxes on first and second down to try to make it a little bit easier because

you don't have difference makers at wide receiver you don't have an offensive line that can protect the quarterback so they're going to have to lean on derrick henry continuing to be this monster tackle breaker and it just doesn't feel really good defensively i think they're going to have to lean on Derek Henry continuing to be this monster tackle breaker. And it just doesn't feel really good defensively. I think they're going to be okay, but it's not a team that like is loaded. That's going to be able to elevate this offense. They're going to be on the field more. Like we don't really talk about that often in terms of like bad offenses and how they put a strain on a defense, like three and outs turnovers,

turnovers and short fields and putting the team you know back in off of a short rest to defend you know in the red zone like that's tough so trickle down effect is pretty massive with how bad the offense is and then we've talked about schedule wise the unique three here they play the chargers the seahawks and at miami like those are three teams that i am very bullish on those are are in terms of like, well, you look at the unique three outside of elite division winners. Like I think that, you know, the Jags have a really tough, unique three chiefs have a really unique three, but like they were first place teams and they've kind of earned that. And we also think they're going to be good again.

I don't think that the Titans are going to be good. And they've really kind of run into a really tough three. Uh, Connor, I know you were on this too, as one of your first futures of the year that you wrote up early in the season. Yeah, we're still looking at seven and a half. And the more that I think about it, the more that I think we're looking at like a six game season basically here. So we will know, I think after the first seven weeks

heading into their week seven by whether this win total is going way under or way over. And so right now we're looking at them being three and a half point dogs in week one, week two, four and a half point dogs in week three and four, one point dog in week five, and then five and a half point dogs in week six. And they head into their buy. I mean, if they're one point, if they're one in five, I think the rest of their season, like they're probably starting will love us out of the buy from there on, like none of the other

look ahead lines matter because this team looks drastically different. Could Derek Henry get traded? I think absolutely. At that point, like the wheels falling off, look for this team looks significant because like the only, I think upside scenarios are like, okay, the running game gets back.

Ryan Tannehill is underrated, which I do think that he probably is underrated at this point. And like, that's the upside center and they carry the offense, which I think is possible. But when you're looking at who they play in those first six games, like they're underdogs in every single game. And like, that's the upside center and they carry the offense, which I think is possible. But when you're looking at who they play in those first six games, like they're underdogs in every single game. And like, it's an uphill climb to even be 500 heading into the buy.

And so they're not even 500. Like the decision can come from, you know, above and just like, Hey, we're going to pull the plug on this. We're going to move forward. We'll Levis. We're going to figure out what we have and tank. So I'll be playing all turners. I think it's like a good look.

If you can get like an under five and a half at a good plus money, I think that's an interesting look here because the rest of the season, I mean, it's definitely easier than what we're seeing in the first six weeks, but with Will Levis, with maybe without Derek Henry,

I think the team just could look a lot different and horrible supporting cast based on what you described. I'm pretty much out on this Titans team. Yeah, I still think Ryan Tandem can maybe be league average. Like I don't want to bury Ryan Tannehill at all, but is he at this point in his career a talent elevator?

I'm not necessarily sold, and there's not a lot of talent to be elevated here. Clark, what are your thoughts on Tennessee? I don't think Tannehill's ever been a talent elevator, but you've got Mike Rabel, Ryan Tannehill, and I actually think their defense is really good. At least it was last year. So it's hard for me to see it.

But at the same time, if, like you said, if they start rough and they're one in five heading into the buy, you know, maybe we don't have Tannehill anymore. So yeah, I think, I think ultimate unders is probably the way to play it. I don't think that I can go bearish on the Titans at current market prices, but your points are compelling. I think another issue too with relying on Derrick Henry is that if you watch him run, he kind of needs a couple of steps to get ahead of steam. And a lot of times last year, he was getting hit behind the offensive line and wasn't able to pick up that steam,

really carry him those extra four or five yards because if the offensive line isn't good enough, which during his heyday, it was very good, you know, like he was crushing it. And so that's kind of my issue too, is like, you can't really rely on that if he's getting hit, you know, at the line of scrimmage or yard before, because he just hasn't picked up enough steam. Yeah. The secondary, so the great safety group,

the corners are interesting. They've had, you know, they've spent a lot of early draft capital the last couple of years at corner and it hasn't super panned out for them. They're going to need some of these guys, you knowger mccreary last year uh they have christian fulton they have uh caleb farley like those guys really haven't kind of emerged yet um it's you know not a great pass rush they've also had you know some some injuries up there too so that's been a little bit of a problem but again i think the strain that the offense puts on him is a little bit tough like they threw the bag at Andrew Dillard,

offensive lineman from the Eagles. Like he lost his job. He was like a swing tackle for them the last year plus. And now he's like your best offensive lineman. They're going to, you know, they drafted Peter Skowronski. He was going to play guard for them. Like, so yeah, he'll be pretty good in an upgrade. But yeah, it's not a pretty sight.

So the run defense elite though very very very good yeah i mean jeffrey simmons is a stud um yeah uh linebacker group is not good they they uh but you know whatever like a pretty interchangeable squad there so uh we'll see who emerges with that group yeah simmons if he could stay on the field you know he definitely is uh he can collapse the pocket. He can make things a little bit harder. But, yeah, I just think the offense makes that harder. Again, you just can't – if you're on the field for 35, 40 minutes a game,

that defense starts to not look quite as good. So, yeah, tough for him. Or Nate Howard-Landry too. For sure. Yeah, he's not been able to stay healthy and be impactful. So, all right, guys. Good stuff. Not super hard hot-taking. I think we were measured, but again,

it's good for the SEO to put hot-takes all over this. People will click and they'll be like, hey, these guys are going to be fired. Sorry, it's not our style. Sharp Clark said the Falcons are going to win 12 games. Who's this Jason Mraz looking dude saying that the Falcons are winning the Super Bowl?

I don't know. It's not. The Falcons are going to win the NFC. Yeah. Not for everyone. Christian Watson, offensive player of the year from Connor Allen. I think we got earlier.

So Christian Watson is, is T Higgins. How about that? Not Justin Jefferson. I was going to say, I think that at his best, he's Will Fuller. That's my,

that's my question. Yeah. Disrespect. I know that is disrespectful, but I'm, I'm'm i'm ready to take the heat for it so as always reminder show notes for all the stuff we talked about you want to get the subscription um we definitely advise that three months sub for just five bucks really really cheap otherwise four four four dot com slash plans you can head over there lock yourself in for the year get all the picks that we make all season you'll get them from now all the future stuff that we have leading up there to access to every tool,

article, best ball, redraft, DFS, high stakes, all that stuff. So good stuff as always, we'll be back in the same spot next week. So for Clark and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all next time. Thanks everyone. you