Move The Line - What We Learned From The Latest NFL Mock Drafts

Episode Date: April 6, 2023

Breaking down the latest batch of 2023 NFL mock drafts as we get closer to the NFL Draft! Talking risers, fallers, and how they affect possible betting lines for the draft. What are the latest best bets for the 2023 NFL Draft?Timestamps:0:00 Intro3:15 Updated 2023 NFL Mock Drafts4:46 Scott Smith Mock Draft Process9:36 Crazy Mock Draft News11:17 CJ Stroud-Bryce Young 1-213:08 QB Heavy Draft14:23 Anthony Richardson To The Titans20:12 What Will The Raiders Do?22:15 Seahawks Draft Plans25:31 First CB Drafted Market31:07 Lions Draft Target 35:40 Top-10 Picks & Jalen Carter45:08 Bijan Robinson to the Falcons47:23 Texans Draft Plans49:41 What Will The Patriots Do In the 2023 NFL Draft?54:47 Myles Murphy Rising56:12 Brian Branch’s Draft Prospects57:17 Where Does Jaxon-Smith Njigba Go?58:27 Some Middle-Round Mock Picks1:02:50 Where’s Hendon Hooker Going?1:08:29 Ideal Team Fits1:13:22 New Draft Bets Released1:14:29 OutroShow Notes: Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansDeposit $5 With Promo Code 4FOR4BETS on No House Advatage to get a 3-Month 4for4 Betting Subscription 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/40CeWYa Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Scott on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/scottsmithffVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaRead Scott’s Mock Draft 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3IuTxbsRead Connor's Mock Draft 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3lwMacb Read Ryan's Mock Draft 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3mh1aLD

More pro days and team visits are popping up and the betting markets are slowly coming along as well, along with Newmark Drafts, both Newmark Draft from myself and Scott Smith here over at 444, and we're going to unpack those here today on Move the Line. Hello and welcome to Move the Line. I'm Ryan Noonan. Joined here as always by Connor Allen, Scott Smith. Excited to talk NFL Draft on the Master's Eve. So, you know, by the time you're listening to this, hopefully your early Masters bets, if you're watching this and you're betting on the NFL Draft,

hopefully you're betting on the best golf betting event of the year as well. I think Connor Allen is. I know Scott Smith is a little bit. Scott, how are we doing? Good. Going Shuffler this week? Going Shuffler this week. It's just too damn good, man.

He's got all of it. So, Connor, are you getting down on the Masters at all? Yeah, I got to queue up your article over at Bettsports Golf and start firing away because I'm sure I missed most of the value. But as someone who's a very much amateur golf better, I'll just fire up whatever I can and, you know, bet, bet whatever I can at this point,

it's get the best prices. Lots of different ways to bet the masters. It's great. So lots of different ways to bet the draft, not what we had hoped coming into the year. I'm still holding out a little bit of hope and optimism that the books will, I think no one wants to go first, Connor, is that your impression? Like none of these books really want to put themselves out there in terms of

like the over-unders, like in comparison to, you know, the number of options that we had last year, the books got cooked. Obviously is why, you know, there's such a thirst for it and no one really wants to be the first one out there in terms of staking someone's new over under or putting out a new market entirely. Like the books are kind of waiting to copycat and see if they can, you know, kind of minimize the damage of going first. Yeah. So in jest yesterday, I tweeted out, cause they put a drop to new market for Jake Moody, a place kicker, you know, a kicker,

like team to draft Jake Moody. And I tweeted out like, Oh, the market we've all been waiting for. And I actually had a draft Kings trader slide in my DMS and be like, Hey, oh, the market we've all been waiting for. And I actually had a DraftKings trader slide in my DMs and be like, hey, did you bet this? The Lions were 75 to one. We actually met up on there or something like that. And I was like, oh, I didn't know who this guy was, but I started messaging him. He's like, do you want us to put some new over-unders up? I'm like, yes, put up everything, please, as soon as possible. And I was like, what's going on? Where's the rest of the market? Why does no one else have anything? Because frankly, DraftKings actually is doing the best they can because they're putting up the most and they're putting up them first, but no one else is copying him. And he's basically like, well, it's just a

lot harder for us to be the first to take a stand with every single market because we're just getting beat up on it because no one's going to make money on this. So it's just like really hard for them to not only set a good line, but want to be the first at every single market. So basically what he said is they're coming, but it's just going to be a little while. And he's not sure what other companies are doing, but he said he imagines hopefully after the masters, he sees a lot more. Like I said, the focus today are recent mock drafts from Scott and myself. We're going to pop those up on the screen as we've done previously with the recent Daniel Jeremiah mock drafts, the one that we had from Mel Kiper Jr. This is an exciting process.

It's going to have some overlap. I think we have some discussion around where we are. I don't think we're very far off on a lot of things, which I think is obviously a good thing. It just becomes a matter of are we in the same echo chamber or is there action to be taken from some of these places where we're aligned? Before we jump into the specifics of the box, I want to remind folks, you get access to all of our betting stuff over at 444. Go to get the betting subscription, gets you literally everything on our site, all the tools, resources, articles, including our draft coverage. Again, if you want to get just a taste of that for a couple of months, we partner with No House

Advantage. They are a pick-em site. Download No House Advantage in the app store. Use promo code 444BETS, and you're going to get that just a minimum deposit of $5 using that promo code, and you're going to get a three-month betting subscription. So that's usually like $150. So pretty good deal to just kind of dip your toes in the water to see what we're about and get you literally access to everything, including subscriber-only Discord where we post all of the official plays.

We posted an official one today as well, and we'll get to that here when we break down the mocks. So definitely want to check that out. If you're on the golf side and you want to dip your toes into the master stuff, betsportsgolf.com. You can use promo code RAINDELAY and you get 50% off of a month subscription over there too. So you want to make sure all your betting needs are covered here. So Scott, talk to me kind of about your process.

We talked about this episodes ago, but if anyone's jumping in, and again, if you are new, you can find us on YouTube on 444BETS, Move the Line podcast, wherever you find podcasts. We've been doing this every week. Scott's talked a little bit about his process in building a mock draft, but Scott, for the new listeners, talk to us a little bit about how you go about kind of creating and crafting a mock draft. So for me, mock draft goes on a lot of things. I try to track down all the information that I can, specifically when it comes to the iteration that you're seeing up here. Last week, as soon as we got done finishing the show, I kind of told both of y'all that, look,

a lot of what I'm hearing in the streets is that Tennessee's interested in moving up. I'd already kind of had my mock draft done. I just need to kind of put my blurbs to each player. And here, a week later, a day or two ago, you see Daniel Jeremiah reporting the same thing that that I was talking about and that I was hearing um you know basically for me I try to evaluate basically the top 50 players and figure out who those guys are through you know reputable evaluators and and you know different talent sites and um I kind of eliminate the bottom 10

so that 40 to 50 range every now and then you may have a guy that pops up. So I try to narrow down the top 37 to 38 players. And then I look across everybody's mock drafts. I'm trying to see if there's some things that I'm missing out, some trends coming from some other people that are tuned in that you know maybe i'm not in on and um i am evaluating everybody's mock drafts in the same way i would evaluate my own um there are some some news and some things like that that i i get that may not be mainstream um with a lot of the big time media analysts and stuff that i'll you know tend to add and maybe zig when they're zagging in some of it but you know the the first three mock drafts that I do are all for better terms.

It's just an exercise. It's a thought process of if this is going to play out this way, how is the rest of the draft going to fall? If this team selects this position, what is that going to do to the rest of the teams and needs and things like that? So I think at this point, if you just look at our draft side by side, you're going to see that we've kind of narrowed down the top 10 to 12 players that we think are going to go in that top 10. And I think when it comes to mock draft grading, as far as accuracy and stuff, I think that's where you're going to make the most points up in your accuracy grading, because you're looking to get a good eight players

matched to the proper team within that that range um so that's more of less the the foundation for mine is that those top 10 picks and trying to narrow down what those teams are going to do and then try to to pick up a little bit of information in the in the media and then you know just different areas to to kind of piece together some some other things on the back two-thirds of the draft so that's how i look at it um and and some of it's just finding a player in the team that match from a scheme standpoint so that's uh pretty much what i do and it's it's worked out and i've had some some lucky years and i've had some some other okay years yeah so if you're new to the show, you're not familiar with Scott. Scott's done a very, very, very good job

at blocking NFL drafts for the last handful of years. So he is humble. I'm going to tell you these, you know, run into some luck. He's really good at this. It's the reason why he's here and does this. So if you are listening in the audio podcast, it might be a little harder. We're going to talk through this, hopefully explain it as if you are just listening.

But if you can tune into the YouTube page, you can see we have graphs up right now with Scott and I's mocks side by side. We can see where there's overlap, where there's discrepancy. Guys that we have, we both have some guys that are going maybe a little bit early. I mean, you know, the other person doesn't have that person going in the first round at all. So there is definitely a little discrepancy towards the back end of the draft. Conor, I'm going to kick it to you. We have fired a couple of drafts or a couple of plays for subscribers since the last time we met.

The first one was about a week ago around kind of what we're feeling that seems to be happening at the top of the draft. We feel a little bit more safe in terms of how we think this draft is starting now a pretty reliable mock drafter Lance Zerline came out and had a pretty wild mock draft a little bit yesterday now again to Lance's a wild is relative to what the consensus has been so to be fair like that doesn't mean that Lance is wrong it just seems way off and I think there were some secondary pieces of it that seemed very questionable but the most mocks seem to be kind of rounding into form with what Scott and I have both done at one and two and we made some

plays that kind of echoed that sentiment yeah I think there's a couple things that needs to be said here so first off Lance and Daniel Jeremiah in his previous mock, who also had Bryce young at number one have basically both said, like, we're just trying different scenarios. Kind of like Scott said, it's an exercise, you know, if young goes one, what happens to two? And I think Lance is pretty convinced that they like Bryce young so much that they would consider passing on CJ Stroud, potentially go another direction. Now I've floated that idea actually to some of our friends, Ryan, and they said that that was not what they heard.

And that was actually the opposite of what they heard. They said that they also very much like CJ Stroud, the Texans do. So I think that I get where Lance is coming from. Lance is, again, has been probably the most plugged in public reporter of the Texans that we know.

But again, that kind of assumes that Stroud doesn't go number one. And Lance did not step onto that podium and say, I'm hearing that Young is going to go one. He's just saying, if Stroud doesn't go one, this is what happens. And I think there's a big difference here between the last few drafts. I mean, NBA, NFL, we've seen some crazy stuff happen where Aiden Hutchinson was a massive favorite. Then Trayvon Walker goes number one. But if you think about leading up to that draft specifically, there was like a drumbeat of public reporters and kind of like things we were hearing behind the scenes. So it was Peter Schrager coming out three weeks before the draft. Hey, I'm hearing that, you know, the 14 or that the Jaguars really, really like a guy like Trayvon Walker.

And then you started hearing Daniel Jeremiah say the same thing. And like, this is like three, four weeks. This is right about now. We've heard nothing from a reputable source that says, oh, the Panthers are really liking Bryce Young or, you know, this is heating up. There's been none of that. So until we hear a reputable source behind the scenes or publicly say anything like that, for me, it just has to be Stroud Young. Like there's no reason outside of just having fun for it to be any other way at this point. And we got some of the release news around some testing that typically doesn't come out around how well Bryce Young tested.

And my pushback on that was like, yeah, that matches the tape. Like I think the Bryce Young thing has always been about his size and it hasn't been about his ability to process information quickly or really to make any of the throws it's just are you comfortable with a guy that is a statistical outlier in terms of height and weight we haven't seen anyone succeed at this level being that build um seems like the texans i think a team will in the top five assuredly um take that shot because he is that special of a talent but i understand why a team would be, especially if you have them close, we know the infatuation that some in the Panthers organization have for CJ Stroud. It makes sense that we've kind of landed here.

So we took a couple of variations of Stroud and Young going number one. There are numerous ways we felt like that number was probably not going to get better and felt like it was an opportunistic time to kind of fire at that so um you see the alignment there for both scott and i in the mock drafts yeah and i think that something else to add to i think that this year is more similar to what we saw with trevor lawrence and zach wilson at one and two rather than like walker and hutchinson because like during that draft, for some reason, it was just assumed like everyone was like, well, Hey, the jets like Zach Wilson, even though he wasn't a great prospect, but there was just no pushback on it. There was again, it was similar to this.

Like there was no like, Oh, I'm hearing that someone else could go three. I'm hearing just a field to go three or whatever, whoever else is in the draft. Like there was none of that. It was just like, it was just Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence going one and two. And that was it. And that's kind of like what I'm hearing here until you're anything else. That's just the vibe that I'm getting. Scott has a really unique start with four quarterbacks going in the top four. Um, we're not super far off. I, you know, chickened out because I kind of agree with him. I do think that there is some steam and it's increased since last time we talked, since I did my mock as came out on Thursday or Friday of last week, the drumbeat of the Titans getting involved in the quarterback market makes a

lot of sense. And I mocked will let us down at 11 kind of just left the Texans or the Titans where they are. Scott made the trade up. That seems to be rumored because Cardinals make a great sell spot. They need a plethora of positions. They need to kind of restock. They have a lot of needs.

They are a really interesting spot, knowing that the Colts sit there at four, who are very likely to get involved in the quarterback market as well. So if a team has one of, in this instance, Levis or Richardson ahead of one of the others, you kind of want to get ahead of the Colts to secure that guy.

Scott, you went ahead and secured Anthony Richardson to the Titans, Will Levis going forward to the Colts. I know, again, you've been on it for a couple of weeks. Anything else that you want to add to that or thoughts on just kind of maybe the Titans being on Richardson over Levis in that spot? I think there's going to be a couple of things here to unpack. The first thing you have to look at when it comes to the Titans, what I'm hearing is that they have been shopping around multiple players.

And that includes Derrick Henry. But the person that I have heard shopped around a good bit has been Jeffrey Simmons, who is a young player towards the top five at his position there in the NFL. I think when you start looking at could the Titans move up to three and what would it take for the Cardinals essentially to be willing to move down to 11? And it could be a player like Jeffrey Simmons who would have to be extended. The other team that I've heard rumored and kind of in the market for that as well would be Detroit there at six to be interested in Jeffrey Simmons as well. I just think with Ryan Tannehill, he's what, like 34. I think this is going to be his last year.

There has to be another out for the Titans at quarterback past Malik Willis. The early returns last year were not good. I haven't heard that it's gotten any better throughout the offseason. So I think for those reasons, the Titans are very much in this quarterback mix. Are they going to want to move up to three or in that range to take a player like Anthony Richardson that we've all said is going to take a player like Anthony Richardson that we've all said is going to need a year or two to develop. That's the question mark there. Is that price and that risk worth it to move up to that position?

In this exercise and in this mock draft, I wanted to see what the board would look at based upon some of the rumors that I heard and that I've been tracking, and that was the reason why I decided to move them to three. And this is the way the board laid out. The other reason that I kind of moved them there is because I have been hearing a little bit of steam with Will Levis at four to Indianapolis.

You know, it's a little bit of smoke, some things that are there in some different areas. But I think overall it may end up being difficult for quarterbacks to come off the board of one through four. I think the same way that the Cardinals are going to be there to move down, I think you could very much see Indianapolis moving up one pick because it's going to take them not that much to do it. And then also, you know, the Cardinals, are they going to be willing, if they can move down, add an extra pick, you know, a little bit of something to get an asset and then still be able to draft

Will Anderson. I think that's very much in the market. So for this, I just wanted to see what it was going to look like for Tennessee to move up. I think it is a viable option. And that's why I went there. Like I put this mock draft together, I think last Thursday. And, you know, we're talking about it now. And I think it's a viable option. It's something that could happen. But I think it in the end, it may end up being hard to get four quarterbacks in the top four picks. Just such a domino effect, Connor, in terms of really the top five, top 10,

which always is the case but again with the quarterback dynamic and expected trades it has just another element of like it's just a little bit difficult to navigate some of the early over-unders that we have in terms of where guys are posted because it's just a handful of things here the ability to clearly identify that a team prefers richardson over Levis, a trade that we're all speculating to happen. I feel like now we're just, we basically shifted from the bears assuming that they're going to trade out of one.

Now everyone's just waiting for the Cardinals to trade out of three. Like it would seem very strange at this point. And really the betting market would tell you that because Will Levis is over under came, I'm sorry, Will Anderson's over under came out at three and a half, basically even. And now it's like minus 500 for him to go over three and a half. So they're telling you that they don't think the Cardinals are staying three because he still kind of feels like the consensus first defensive player overall.

Don't feel like they would necessarily go corner over Anderson while corner is very much a need. Again, they have a quarterback. You can make a discussion for another day that they should, you know, address that position and try to move off of Kyler Murray. That's for a different show. But again,

the betting market's telling you that the Cardinals are going to eventually trade that pick. Yeah. I also, I mean, there were some rumors about Anderson does not being a fantastic fit for them, which I don't really know how that makes sense.

But, you know, again, that like, you know, that was one of those things where I was like, okay, well, if they don't like love Anderson, right. You know, maybe they're more interested in moving down, trading for a corner, you know, getting Gonzalez or Witherspoon or something like that makes a lot of them moving

down to seven. If they moved on to like 11, even potentially they can land a corner there as well. So I think that there's a lot of different ways that they can come out here, you know, you know, major advantage. So yeah, I think the four quarterbacks, we're going to see four quarterbacks go off the board here because at the end of the day, like even, you know, again, if they trade down with Indianapolis, I guess it would probably be three quarterbacks and then maybe the fourth one to Seattle there or the Raiders, but then how that shakes out. But I really think we're going to see at least three quarterbacks in the top

three. If not four, if they trade down far enough here, because I think there's very heavily incentivized now to trade down because they're going to get offers for like, like, why would you not trade down if you get a second round pick from Indy or, you know, a third round pick from Indy? Like, I think that that's almost like a no brainer, but they're probably just holding out and waiting to see if they can get more from the Raiders, more from the Titans, something like that at this point, because I mean, I heard things were heating up last week, like late last week, and that they were going to make a move here soon but you know that obviously hasn't materialized yet

uh as a midweek uh you know this with this week so we'll see I mean maybe they just didn't get the offer they wanted and think they can get more and they still might I mean we don't know for sure I mean I think we know for sure who's going to be available three but we don't know no yet and it could very well be a draft day thing it wouldn't surprise me at all feel. I feel like, and I love to get your guys' thoughts on this. We'll jump to where, how we address the position, but I feel like the Raiders are a little bit out on the quarterback thing at this point.

I feel like they're less likely to be a viable trade option. And again, another team that has a lot of needs feel like the way that they structure the Jimmy G deal, it makes sense for them to, you know, they can do that in a way that puts them in a position to maybe come back and address it next year.

Again, kind of make the addition of Jimmy G to then give up resources to move up to add a guy who's likely going to sit behind him this year. Seems like a bizarre team building exercise. They've been adamant. Apparently anyone that will listen to the last 48 hours, they're going to take the best player available. I don't know that that makes for a quarterback. Again, that could be a smoke screen.

That could be them, you know, kind of jockeying and, you know, kind of just positioning themselves to do something different. But it makes sense to me from a team building standpoint for them to sit home at seven, if they identified a quarterback and Will Levis is their guy and he falls to them, that makes sense. But if they feel like, hey, we're not going to go up and jump up and pay that premium, I kind of understand that. Any thoughts on that, Scott? So what you hit on right there, I think the Raiders are a little bit more invested and a little higher on Jimmy Garoppolo than what most fans are reading into.

I think they are well invested. We've discussed before how easy it is for them to get out of the contract should they choose to do so. I find it hard to believe that the Raiders would be confident that Garoppolo can make it through an entire season. I think they're comfortable with his playing. And the rumors and some of the information that I have tracked down actually has the Raiders. I found them a little bit more connected to Will Levis than Anthony Richardson, which was a little bit of a surprise for me. And I think the Raiders will be comfortable sitting at seven.

I tend to think that they may be out on moving up. I think there are some prospects there at seven that they're comfortable with if they miss out on quarterback. So I tend to think that the Raiders may end up staying put. Yeah, I agree with that point. Let's go to Seattle. Seattle's a team that somewhat feels like they want you to think that they're in the quarterback mix.

Maybe they are. The Geno deal is friendly in a similar way that the Garoppolo deal is friendly. They pick again at 20. This is kind of a luxury pick because this is the Denver pick from last year. You know, you're not going to get enough shots, you know, year after year to be at the top of the board, to take a shot at developing a quarterback,

bringing in a quarterback. Again, like they went out years ago and signed Matt Flynn to a nice free agent deal. And then they drafted Russell Wilson in the third round and allowed a quarterback competition to happen. So like there is some, you know, a little bit of examples here in Seattle of them doing that before. Like Connor, do you, do you feel that Seattle is a true player in the quarterback market?

Let's just stay at five. I don't believe that they would trade up to solidify that, but if someone slides there, do you, do you really think that they're in the market there? Yeah, I think that they're in play. But kind of like what I mentioned earlier, I think that they're probably, if we see a quarterback times four start, obviously they will not have that opportunity. But I think that they would be thrilled to be able to get a guy like Will Anderson, like we see in Scott's mock here at five of them landing Will Anderson. That's plus 175 on draft games.

Currently, Will Anderson is the favorite to go number five, actually, at this point. But that being said, it wouldn't surprise me for them to be in the Anthony Richardson sweepstakes either because they're in such a good position with Gino. I think that Richardson offers significantly more than basically anything they've had from a quarterback in the last few years with his legs. Obviously, Russ was fine as a runner, but again, Anthony Richardson is just the next level here. Also, Rob Statton, the guy who's super plugged in with the Seahawks mentioned that, you know, Richardson would be in consideration for them. Uh, I did mention that, uh, a guy like Tyree, uh, Wilson would not be necessarily in consideration for them. So like, I think that will Anderson or at this point it's between will Anderson or Anthony Richardson for me, at least

that's kind of the way that I'm, you know, shaping it but uh you know i'm open to other opinions there i know that you have wilson at five but again the only reason i had don't think wilson is there because of statin and i know statin is i think he's been good lately but you know again it's obviously a lot of faith to put in one person's opinion because i haven't heard much else yeah so i think the way that the mock again if i were to have made the trade with with tennessee which i think makes a lot of sense or just having the cardinals trade out at all um that naturally is going to put will anderson at five to seattle um in my mock i just i held strong with you know the no trade for arizona but i think that that makes sense i'm curious as far as far as why he thinks tyree

wilson isn't a fit unless there's something specific about the prospect. Because really, that team has done a really good job at team building. They've had a nice offseason as well. Great draft last year. They really need edge rushers. They need guys that can pressure the quarterback. They added Tremont Jones as far as a defensive tackle. They could add another guy there.

We've talked about the Jalen Carter thing. Like I can understand maybe Jalen Carter's off their board from a character standpoint, whatnot, but like Tyree Wilson feels like a good fit for them. But again, in this instance, I think they're going to be able to get an edge rusher with Will Anderson if the Cardinals are able to kind of make that trade. So let's talk about something we've talked about basically every single time that we've met. And that is the first quarterback off the board discussion. We both landed on a quarterback to the Lions at six. Now again, the Lions have addressed the cornerback position in

free agency. But you know, Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Mosley, Mosley is a one-year deal. Like those aren't necessarily like prime shutdown guys. They're running up into the fifth-year option on Jeffrey Dakota, top pick from a couple of years ago. They need to add depth at the position. We've been waiting on, and Scott has been kind of beating the drum. We need to know Witherspoon's measurables. We need to have him at least run. He ran today, his pro day.

He did not run at the Illinois pro day, but he had his own separate one today. Again, how cozy does your own school pro day get and then your own pro day? Again, the way that they set these things up for these guys to just absolutely nail it. But good job to the Witherspoon camp because he did. Went out and ran in the 4-4s. Connor and i were talking before he ran like we kind of you know threw out hey if we're anywhere sub four five we're kind of taking the position here and firing off because we've seen more and more reputable mocks as well

put witherspoon whether it's in their big board or in mock drafts ahead of christian gonzalez who also i think is a fantastic prospect the tiebreaker to me has always been a little bit about scheme and witherspoon's played a higher rate of man which is kind of fits the line scheme a little bit more than how gonzalez profiles and uh yeah gonzalez and witherspoon i put witherspoon connor and i made that bet today witherspoon first cornerback off the board at plus 150 i moved pretty quickly uh after we did so I still think there are some plus numbers out there, but Scott, talk to me about the Gonzalez and Witherspoon discussion again. So we've been pretty split, you and I, at least as far as which one we have. And I don't want to diminish Devin

Witherspoon at all as a prospect. I think these guys are 1a and 1b i think historically we have some things that point in christian gonzalez's direction um that you look at mainstream media todd mcshay todd mcshay is talking out of both sides of his mouth when it comes to both of these prospects because on the one hand he's saying devin witherspoon is absolutely going to be the first cornerback off the board and then the the very next sentence I was discussing with Christian Gonzalez is that he's got the best pure cover corner skills in the draft. So you start talking about fit, and yes, you have Witherspoon who played more man coverage, which may put him in contention there for Detroit.

But when you look back at draft history, which is what I tend to fall back on, GMs kind of give you the trends of how they look at prospects. And I went back over the last 10 years. Over the last 10 years, the first cornerback off the board has not been an underclassman one time. And that was in 2015 with Trey Waynes. So when you start looking at athleticism, which, yes, Witherspoon ran his 40 today, and I think that 40 put him back in the talk of being the first cornerback off the board, but the rest of his athletic profile, because he did not test and did not do all the things that you're looking at, the rest of his athletic profile is a little bit incomplete to some of these GMs.

There's also going to be medical checks and things. But the other thing with these cornerbacks that get drafted first off the board when you're talking about it is that they all have a relative athletic score at 8.35 or above, which when you start looking at Christian Gonzalez, his is well over nine. So I think some of those trends, when you start talking about GMs and how they look at players from an athletic ability, and we talk about it in fantasy football all the time, when you start scouting wide receivers, we want guys that declare early. I don't hold it against

Witherspoon that he was a one-star or zero-star prospect coming out of high school. If anything to me, it shows the character of somebody who was not a highly recruited player that worked his ass off to get to where he's at to put himself in a position to be talked about as the first cornerback off the board. So to me, from a background standpoint that you're going to find out in interviews is that, you know, he's probably got a really hard work ethic. You know, that would just be a guest of mine with the way he has developed over his four years in college.

But I still think when it comes to GMs, GMs value those high-level prospects that were at the cream of the crop when they were in high school, go through college, they're at the cream of the crop when they're in college. They test well at the combine, most athletic player that they have at the position. And at every level that they played, they're at the top. And I think that is where Christian Gonzalez is going to come into play to be the first cornerback selected off the board. Like I said, I think when you compare these players, they do a few things differently.

But I think there are one A and one B. And I tend to lean a little bit more towards Christian Gonzalez because of where he has been throughout his career, his athletic measurables, and the trends of GMs drafting underclassmen, early declarations as the first cornerback off the board for the last 10 years. It's only happened one time that they haven't. That was Trey Waynes in 2015. And I don't think anybody's hollering from the rafters that troy wayne had this great career as a as nfl cornerback so that's that's my stance and my pushback on witherspoon being number one it makes sense i have a question though so specifically looking at the lions though so there are a few things we talked about in the last episode obviously one of the highest rates of man

in the league witherspoon played like 80 plus plus percent man. Gonzalez is more of a zone corner. That's all fine. You know, maybe a better scheme fit on top of that though. Like you talked about, you know, generally corners who go to the top 10 are incredible athletic specimens on Witherspoon is probably not that he's probably just like above average. That being said, the Lions, you know, just took a guy, Aiden Hutchinson, who obviously, you know, tested well in terms of RAS, but was not exactly the guy with like the longest reach or, you know, like the necessarily the biggest, uh, you know, like, like he wasn't

like necessarily a toolsy guy, you know, something like that. So I think from like a, like a team exact team perspective, I don't know much about the Raiders. Honestly, the Raiders are completely throwing me off the board here. They do play man too, but from like a team fit for me i really like this lion's fit i know that you have gonzalez there and i think that from a prospect perspective you know in most teams boards he's probably better but this lion's he might just keep coming back to all these little things that just like you know make me think that witherspoon would be their

kind of guy and especially you know i know, I know Nunes talked about it before. I mean, he's got that dog in him, right? I mean, we saw the medicals. He's literally got the dog in him. The other pushback I would have against my own argument that aligns with

what you're saying. You look at who the coaches are over there. And I think you've got Aaron Glenn, smaller cornerback may look at a guy like Witherspoon and see himself in him. Dre Bly, the corner, the defense, the secondary coach, is also a guy who is about 5'10", 188, that may also see Witherspoon, a little bit of himself in Witherspoon. So I'm not disqualifying Devin Witherspoon at all from being a link there to Detroit. I just tend to lean a little bit more on what the historical trends from GM say.

And like I said, I think these two guys are 1A and 1B. I don't have an argument or a bad feeling if one gets picked above the other. I just think that there is a very good argument for both sides of this coin when it comes to both of those guys if we're playing devil's advocate yeah i think there's a good chance that christian gonzalez is the better cornerback to be honest i mean he does as you said the athletic testing is incredible a little bit taller all of those things um and i'm splitting hairs too i have gonzalez literally going in the next pick seven to the raiders so like this is very close and i don't know christian gonzalez in terms of the next pick seven to the raiders so like this is very close and i don't know christian gonzalez in terms of you know what we hear character wise have not

heard anything bad about him we've heard really good things and you kind of laid it out to scott in terms of devin witherspoon about the work ethic and the character stuff is off the charts and those things do really kind of ring a bell even more for me for detroit when we look at brad holmes how he wants to build a team what we get out of that head coach and dan campbell and the do really kind of ring a bell even more for me for Detroit. When we look at Brad Holmes, how he wants to build a team, what we get out of that head coach and Dan Campbell and the type of guy that he wants to bring in does feel a little bit more again, to the point, like part of it for making the bet for Connor and I think I'll speak for Connor was that we felt like it should have probably have been all along closer to a coin flip. And the market was telling us something

different where you were getting almost minus 200 on Christian Gonzalez. You're getting, you know, plus 150 plus 160 for a little bit on Witherspoon. And thinking that we might get a high four or five or even a four, six or something on Witherspoon. Well, then that's a no brainer. This isn't even a discussion. I back way off of my Devin Witherspoon stuff. There's no doubt it's Christianian gonzalez but you know four three eight four four two you know we're kind of in that mix or what a four four six or whatever you know that that's a pretty good number for him so um and six feet tall so like we're not dealing with uh to connor's point he's not big he's not small he's he's probably middle of the road athletic size wise and all those things so um i feel like we've been talking for five minutes apparently the

sign says we've been talking for 35 minutes we made it through six picks so we're gonna try to speed things up a little bit here this is just very easy i can do this for hours we get off every show we try to keep it to an hour i'm like i could have done that for another hour or so but uh uh i like i said when christian gonzalez the next pick with the raiders at seven scott went with tyree wilson again i I already had Tyree Wilson off the board at five to Seattle, but only because Will Anderson didn't come off the board because I didn't mock the trade to Arizona. So we're kind of in a similar mix there. And then ironically, the eight, nine, 10 range, which I think we all think can be a number of ways for this to go.

Scott and I are aligned with Bijan robinson eight to the falcons paris johnson 10 to the bears and jaylen carter uh 10 to the eagles we'll start with jaylen carter who has been in the news um saying that you know the drew rosenhouse's agent we're not taking meetings outside the top 10 for jaylen carter Some people think that that's a little bit like, how, why would you not do that? Teams can trade up. You know, you're being a little bit like boastful, you know, with all the situations that you have. He was on with Pat McAfee today and said straight up, they have what kind of amounts to, because I think you can't really do this in the NFL, is the guarantee in the top 10. They have a, basically it feels like

eight, nine or 10, I would imagine have told them that they are going to take Jalen Carter. So anyone that's reached out to Jalen Carter's camp outside of the top 10, his agent is simply asking them, are you planning to trade up into the top 10? Otherwise you're not going to get my, you're not going to get my, uh not going to get my uh my player here because i have assurance that he's going somewhere else so that becomes very interesting the eagles thing makes a lot of sense they have some needs they got to find a replacement long term for fletcher cox who they brought back uh vernon hart or jaylen hargrave javon hargrave i'm sorry went to uh the niners in free agency they have a need in the middle of the line there, Connor.

Any thoughts on Jalen Carter in terms of him not visiting outside the top 10 or anything at 8, 9, and 10 that Scott and I did? Yeah, so I have a bet actually to run by you guys here, and I haven't released in the Discord, but I wanted to hit you guys up, but I figured we'd wait until the show here. So you guys both have the Bears drafting offensive linemen here at 9 with Paris Johnson here. But I was going kind of through their roster and looking at who they have and kind of piecing some things together.

So I like where this is going. So they have. So their offensive line right now, they have, according to PFF, Braxton Jones was like a fifth round pick last year. A left tackle expected to start was like a top 30 offensive tackle. Tevin Jenkins, a right tackle, top 15, apparently according to Pro Football Focus's grades. Larry Borum, sixth round pick, played a good chunk of the season, played extremely well.

They have Cody Whitehair, left guard, above average. Nate Davis, they just signed, right guard, above average. Lucas Patrick at center, again, not great. Like he was below, the only below average offensive lineman they have in their grades. Everyone else was actually pretty good. Not to mention they have depth because they have Braxton Jones and Larry Boren, both left tackle. So then you're looking at the board here. We had heard early on that

they absolutely love a guy like Tyree Wilson. Now we're getting reports of them bringing in Jalen Carter twice into visits to really do that. Imagine if Ryan Poles can say, I traded down from the number one pick to be able to draft and still got the guy who was number one on our board and Jalen Carter, because that was in consideration when they were sitting at number one. So for me, I don't want to play the exact like Jalen Carter to the bears. I mean, maybe that's worth a look too, but I think that to draft a defensive lineman is plus 200 right now on draft Kings and FanDuel. Um, whereas offensive lineman is minus one 90. So I get that. Look, if it was like Quentin Nelson or like that level prospect,

you're going to pass them up for like some bums, like fifth round, sixth round pick, but you're on like a cost-controlled offensive line that's performed way above expectation, and then you're getting potential studs in Tyree Wilson and Jalen Carter. My only concern is that they don't make it to them. Like for me, the way that I'm visualizing their board is it's probably Jalen Carter, Tyree Wilson, and then Paris Johnson slash Broderick Jones somewhere in that range.

So I obviously, you know, I haven't confirmed this yet with my Bears guy and I planned to prior to the draft. But for me, when I'm looking at it from an outsider's perspective, like plus 200 on that to get either, you know, Tyree Wilson or Jalen Carter seems pretty good uh any any thoughts there needed what's the price on Carter to the Bears oh that's a good question

let me look that up Scott any initial thoughts there as well because that's a good that's a good thought what I've been looking at when it comes to the Bears and I do think that there's a need for left tackle um I think when you look at it, Paris Johnson and Justin Fields are very good friends. They're in constant contact weekly with phone calls and things of that nature. Paris Johnson absolutely tore it up at the Ohio State Pro Day from everything that I heard.

When I look at these teams, I kind of keep a running list of you know option a option b and option c and jalen carter and paris johnson are options a and b for me i i can see going jalen carter over paris johnson and maybe paris johnson drops down it's it's neck and neck with these two i i tend to think that they want to build a little bit more around Justin Fields than necessarily going to defense, but I also look at the two linebackers that they sign, and I can absolutely see them wanting to put a beast like Jalen Carter in front of those guys to let those guys do work. I think when we start looking at some of these numbers to come out,

I think if we could get positive, if I could get at least, you know, positive action on, you know, Paris Johnson, like a number for Paris Johnson to be there and also a number at Jalen Carter, I might take both sides of that coin. Yeah. So we're looking at plus 450 team to draft Jalen Carter on draft Kings. I was hoping for closer to like six to one or something like that, but I think that that's still fine. I definitely get your point about Paris Johnson, though. I think the other thing that I forgot to bring up too was that right now if you look at kind of like i guess value over replacement you know so essentially like how much of an impact is this player going to make over the replacement you're looking at a guy like jaylen carter coming

in and starting over uh what's his name justin jones a defensive tackle whereas you know obviously paris johnson is an upgrade over for him or Braxton Jones. But again, like, I think that they, I mean, they played relatively well, you know, all things considered. So like, I think that there's probably just a bigger bump in getting a guy like Jalen Carter. Who's, I mean, again, like was the best defensive player and arguably the best defensive player in this draft over you know, a Paris Johnson to Braxton Jones upgrade. So just another thing to think about. I think, I don't know, I might consider sprinkling a little bit, like a little quarter unit on the Bears there,

because I think you could probably get that at FanDuel as well. I'm not sure if we can get it at any other shop, so I'll do some exploring there. So I'm glad you think that it's not outrageous, though, Scott. Noonan, any takes now that I've said the price? Yeah, so I was ironically thinking about it about an hour ago when I was driving home before the show here, and So ironically thinking about it about an hour ago when I was driving home before the show here and I was thinking about just the Bears needs.

And like, so you mentioned Jenkins, like Tim and Jenkins played really well last year, mostly at guard. And I know they signed Nate Davis, but they could put him at the other guard position, use some of the depth to kick out the tackles. Now that's why you are in the market for a tackle, right? So like you have a need for some of those guys, if you to be able to keep jenkins in his position where it's not where you drafted him to play when they drafted him out of oklahoma state a couple years ago but he performed

really well there last year so like just let the guy kind of cook where he cooked last year and then you can do some other stuff um it'd be really nice for them to have maybe the 32nd pick in the draft. Unfortunately, they don't have that and they can't add both these positions, but I think they're both very much in play where to your point, the price right now on two drafted offensive linemen feels a little bit higher than it should be. I would lock in more so on them specifically to take Jalen Carter versus them to take a defensive lineman because I do feel like it's probably a Carter play more so than a Tyree Wilson play, but I don't have any

information on that. I just think that it makes a lot of sense to put him in the middle where they have a lot of needs. Now they have needs on the outside, but they have some guys coming back that are again, below average pass rushers, but like the needs that they have internally on the defensive line, really, I think Trump or they have the needs on the edge. Yeah. And one more, I mean, would it be like that outrageous if, if for some reason they don't value an offensive tackle for them to pick like Lucas Van Ness here as well, if Carter and Tyree Wilson are gone, like, I don't, I don't really think so. I mean, I think that that he was in that range for a while too. So, um, and I mean, certainly

kind of like, I guess there guess there i mean he's 12 on scott's mock right now i think you have him a little bit further down the board but he's been top 10 and a couple mocks here and there so just something that i thought would be interesting plus 500 for carter to go to the bear specifically on fan duel as well so i don't know something i'll toy with maybe have a bet tomorrow morning when this uh this show gets released the wild card here too is that the falcons who we we both have taking B. John Robinson, I think are very much in play for Paris Campbell and Jalen Carter. So all of a sudden that makes things pretty complicated.

And that's why we've been rattling our brains the whole time and maybe why Scott, and I'll let Scott talk about why he landed on B. John here. The Falcons can go any direction whatsoever. I mean, again, you end up picking at the top of the draft for a reason. You have a lot of needs. The Falcons have a ton of them. We heard them talk about wanting to add another running back on top of Tyler Algier, who did really well last year,

but they obviously like to run the football. We were betting Marcus Mariota under 22 pass attempts in games last year. Just an insane offense from like the early early 80s um in terms of like just throwing the football so just lean into it and you know add the most dynamic back that we've had since maybe saquon barkley uh come out so again they are in line to add an edge rusher tyree wilson they could take an offensive lineman, DeJure, whoever they like there, and Jalen Carter makes it kind of sense to stay there in Georgia and solidify that defense next to Grady Jarrett.

What are your thoughts there on Atlanta, Scott? For me, we've talked about Bijan Robinson being kind of hard to really project with teams just based upon the needs that are there in the top 14 to 15 picks. For me, I landed on Atlanta. project with teams just based upon the needs that are there in the top 14 to 15 picks for me i landed on atlanta there's been some some small rumors that that i've been hearing specifically when you start breaking down atlanta and you talk about positional value specifically with running backs and you look at two years ago and realize that their gm does not care about positional value

because he is the one who drafted kyle p a tight end, in the top four picks. So when you start looking at some of the trends and decision-making, I fell on Atlanta because I don't think they're scared to go ahead and throw the positional value out of the window and just go ahead and take a player of B. John Robinson, who is clearly the top player at his position. And I think there's a big gap compared to a lot of these other positions. But I also look at Arthur Smith and what he did in Tennessee with designing his offense around Derrick Henry. And Bijan Robinson's a guy that

he can do that around. There's a lot of argument. Is Bijan Robinson as good of a prospect as what Saquon Barkley is whenever he got drafted. But I just landed on Atlanta because of connecting those dots right now. That's kind of the team within that range that I am most comfortable with. And then you also just start hearing about some of the other flaws of these prospects. And, you know, let's just say that Will Levis or, you know, some of these other players do fall down past what we are projecting them at right now. You know, what is Atlanta going to draft in? You know, I don't see them drafting either one of these quarterbacks, whether it be Levis or Richardson. And if they're truly going to go with Ritter or Terrell Heineke, I think they want to give them as many pieces as they can. And I think if you don't have a viable quarterback that can make the players

around them better, then let's design our offense and lean on a strong running game. That's where I landed with Atlanta. I like it too. I have some pretty good little prices there in terms of B. John Robinson, team to draft B. John Robinson. First position for the Atlanta Falcons to draft a running back. That's a pretty good number. So I that uh that we're seeing something here um we'll skip down to the texans at 12 i actually originally had this is a late change for me i originally had lucas van ness to the texans at 12 which is exactly what scott did there

made a late change put jackson smith and jigba there. I can see them going either way with their second pick. In this instance, I think because they're moving off of just the needs that they have at wide receiver, Brandon Cooks being gone, you really have just nothing in terms of pass catchers there. But again, I understand putting Van Ness there as well in terms of new head coach, D'Amico Ryans, wants to build up that defensive front,

similar to what he had in San Francisco, wanted to build into that defense. And Van Ness is kind of an ascending prospect, as Scott mentioned, I think Connor mentioned there as well. I'll kind of run through a couple and then let you guys circle back. Scott and I both have the Jets with Peter Skowronski there at the offensive line. I think, again, at this point, one thing that I think when you're looking at discrepancies that Scott and I have, also I think look at similarities, not just in terms of player, but in terms of position, because I think that that starts to make some sense in terms of

what you think these teams can do. I think Skowronski makes sense of East to fall. And I think the Jets adding an offensive lineman, whether that's Skowronski or a Broderick Jones, I think makes a ton of sense there as well. I put Jones next to the Patriots at 14. Scott Wynn with Joey Porter Jr., the quarterback. The cornerback issue, the Patriots have never, again, just in terms of tendencies of teams, they love to draft corners. They love to draft them on the second and third round. They have not drafted early corners a lot. And they've recently re-signed three internal free agents at the position in Jonathan Jones, Miles Bryant, and Jalen Mills. Now, none of those guys are necessarily standout. They hopefully get a lot out of Jonathan Jones. And again, they drafted multiple corners last year.

So I wouldn't be surprised. They're hoping to get some of those guys to step up this year. That would put me a little bit off of them to draft a corner here. But again, if they identify Porter as their guy uh that's of interest too and it's got a kick to talk about porter and then if you want to add any mac jones stuff we've had some mac jones rumors here in the last 48 hours in terms of issues in the house in new england um you know belichick's not necessarily shy to pull the trigger on trades um what are your thoughts on joey porter New England, Mac Jones, any of that stuff?

So Joey Porter, I kind of just landed here because I think his range, I don't know that he gets past Washington at 16 with the needs that they have. There's not really a superstar there, and that's an aging secondary. I kind of think that Bill Belichick may value Joey Porter's NFL bloodline and some of that stuff. He's a player that has consistently improved. The Patriots also have good insight and good connections there with Penn State. So that's kind of why I leaned on that. I also think when it comes to the Patriots and

Bill Belichick, I think it's time that we start questioning Bill Belichick as a coach and as a GM. He hasn't had much success since Brady left. And the word with Mac Jones is that he's pissed off that Mac Jones went to Alabama, his Alabama coaches who have to be mentors, you know, to him when he was there at Alabama to ask them for some advice on how to handle his current situation there in the NFL. And you look at what he decided to do with Matt Patricia, who's never held that position, never called plays. And I don't know how Bill Belichick looked at his roster, looked at his coaches and decided that he thought that was going to be a good position to put a young quarterback in. I don't blame Mac Jones for

going to his coaches. And then, you know, he, he, Bill O'Brien'Brien was a coach there at Alabama, and now all of a sudden he's back with the Patriots now after Mac Jones does this, and you're hearing that they're shopping him. What's their other option going to be, Bailey Zappi? Are we that convinced that Bailey Zappi, off of the small window that we got last year out of him, that he's that much better than Mac Jones

with the position that you put either one of these guys in? So I think Mac Jones is kind of getting the raw end of the deal. I think there are some other teams that he could be traded to if he did get traded and go and find more success than what he's had in New England, especially with the weapons and coaches that they've put around them. So I think it's time that we take Bill Belichick off of the pedestal that he's been on because of the success that he had while Tom Brady was there because we haven't seen him have much success without Tom Brady. So if they go ahead and get rid of Mac Jones, my question that I'd like to hear from either of you guys is,

do they make a play for one of the quarterbacks in this draft? We've got to clip that up. Take me off of this podcast. My name cannot be tied with any of this Belichick slander. Although it's hard to argue. I mean, they've been, they've airballed multiple drafts,

very questionable decisions. You know, obviously you mentioned Patricia and judge and all that they did last year. It's like, he wants to put his buddies in a good spot. Don't give them the coordinator name that way that like, they could still collect their full paychecks from the teams that let them go,

but put them in the same role, just kind of a absolute mess. But I feel like he would have, cause he has a tendency of doing this in the past that they make some trades or like, Whoa, like a little bit early. Like,

why would you do that? And I think if it would have been to a point where they can't, they would have to be forced to divorce. I think they would have already done so. I think they would have moved off him. So I don't expect a trade to happen. I do think you want to give him a shot to have a professional offensive coordinator, more structure to the offense. We saw a pretty good debut year out of him with some structure with an

offensive coordinator. So I do agree that he has been on the raw end of things here. So Connor's lately talked to me about the Belichick and Patriot situation. Yeah, no, it's I mean, I think Scott's Scott hit it on the head there. It's,

you know, it just hasn't been pretty since Brady left and I'm starting to question it. I thought Bailey Zappi was a baller. I thought he was awesome for most of the time there. He's making great throws. Maybe it was just one of the like rookie. I don't know, I guess beginner's luck. But he stepped in and made some awesome throws in a terrible offense. But it's no surprise Mac Jones is struggling.

He went from throwing from incredible prospects at Bama in a great system to literally one of the worst receiving cores in the league in a horrible system. So I think most quarterbacks would struggle. So I don't think they should give up on him. I don't really buy the reports that they're trying to get trade him. I don't even know what someone would trade, like how much people would actually get for him. Like it doesn't even make sense from that perspective either.

So I'm just ignoring it. I think that they're probably not going to do anything. The teams that need a quarterback at this point are kind of at the top of the board and they'd be giving up two years of a deal, the rookie deal, to trade for Mac Jones. So unless you have him way above some of those other guys, in terms of the teams at the top that we're talking about, I don't see a natural fit on the board. Now, if you want to get into a Minnesota or something like that,

that would make more sense. But then now Mac Jones is ready to play and you still have Kirk Cousins. So you can't even really bring him in to address it for the future when you have someone in-house. So it gets a little bit convoluted there. Scott has Miles Murphy going to green bay at 15 i also gave them a defensive end lucas van ness who scott had coming off the board 12 to the texans again we're only you know i did this about a week ago and we're talking about it now if i were to change anything on my draft board just in terms of moving someone up,

it probably would be Miles Murphy, who in January was often mocked in the top 10, high prospect. There were some questions around Miles Murphy and then went out and had a tremendous pro day in the last couple of days. So he is, I think, definitely ascending. His vertical wasn't really special, but pretty much all the other testing for Miles Murphy was off the chart. So I can feel comfortable and feel pretty good about Scott mocking him there to 15 to Green Bay.

If we were to get an over-under on Miles Murphy in like the low 20s or something like that, it would be something that I'd be jumping into to take the under on there as well. Brian Branch is another guy that I was big on. I thought he would find a home early in the draft. Scott has him going to Washington. Questions around the position that he'll play. They have some safeties there in Washington. He maybe plays corner, be interested to see what happens there. I did not have Brian Branch in my mock. I had him originally going 28 to the Bengals, which I think makes a lot of sense too. Brian Branch is an interesting one too, but Scott, talk to me about your home for him in Washington. Well, I am a Washington fan, unfortunately,

but I think there's a big time link with Ron Rivera and that front office being linked specifically with Alabama players. Brian Branch ran a little bit on the slow side at his combine, but he projects very similarly to Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. So I think he would be playing a little bit more of that nickel safety role. They call it a Buffalo back there in the Washington defense. I like the fit with a secondary. I think Washington would be ecstatic if they could get one of the top three cornerbacks to drop off the board. I think they may end up looking at offensive line, but just the link with Alabama players there to Washington, specifically the Buffalo back position that they play in that defense and kind of the role that Brian Branch would play,

I think would give them a bit of a link there with that player going there. But just real quick, to hit on one thing that I think we would maybe have to change, at least on my mock draft, a big difference that we have is Jackson Smith and Jigba, who you have at 12 and I have there at 20. And I think it's time to start moving, for me at least, to start moving him up in drafts because I posted a tweet earlier and it was Brian Hartline talking about the wide receivers that have been there at Ohio State.

And when you start looking at Garrett Wilson and Chris Olav, you look at where they got drafted last year and then you have Brian Hartline saying that Jackson Smith and Jigba is better in both of them. So why wouldn't Jackson Smith and Jigba go a bit higher in this draft than where I have him there at 20? And I don't necessarily think that 11 or 12 at Tennessee and Houston are bad spots for him to land.

So in my next mock draft, he's one of the players that, you know, I think for this one, I would take back and then we'll probably be hiring in the next group of mock drafts that I have and probably in my final board as well. Love it. Yeah. He makes a lot of sense to me that to the Texans. But like you said, if Tennessee can't pull the trigger and move up, they need to add some talent to the wide receiver position as well. And he seems like he'd be a pretty, pretty good fit. Yeah. I'll try to buzz through some position as well. And he seems like he'd be a pretty good fit. Yeah, I'll try to buzz through some of this here too. I really like what you did with Elijah Cansey to Detroit.

We've talked about that at length, depending on their needs in terms of the interior defensive line with you adding three edge rushers last year. I think they like all three of them. I think it makes a lot of sense. They could, if they didn't add a corner, add a corner there. If they wanted to add one of the defensive linemen or something else happened for Detroit at six,

that makes a lot of sense to me there as well. Darnell Wright, I think, is pretty interesting. I think that he has been a trending name up. I landed him. You have him going 19 to Tampa Bay. I have him down 27 to Buffalo, but I, I had to have no problem putting there. I think Tampa Bay is a really hard team to mock. We're not really hearing anything. They have a lot of needs and this kind of rebuild.

They have a needed corner. They have a needed edge rusher. They have a needed offensive line. I could see them adding, I guess, a skill position, but I think that that's probably a little bit less likely maybe an offensive lineman, but I do agree adding, I guess, a skill position, but I think that that's probably a little bit less likely, maybe an offensive lineman. I do agree, though. Honestly, it's crazy. This draft, after the top 10-ish, 10 to 12 prospects, like Scott mentioned at the top, there's so much that can happen. I think that there's a group of 10 guys that can go anywhere

in the next 10 picks, and I would think it's totally fine. I think you brought it up exactly. Jackson Smith and Jigba could go, I mean, 11, you know, not the nine. I mean, the bears could easily take him. They've been started talking about him as well. I mean, the fit there's a little bit suspicious, but you know, you can go as high as there and like you have them, I think at, uh, you know, all the way down at 20 or Scott, I'm at 20. I mean, I think that that's very much his range. So like this whole group here is super much all like very much all over the place. Scott, I'm at 20. I mean, I think that that's very much his range. So, like, this whole group here is super much all – like, very much all over the place.

Scott, I don't know if you have any thoughts on kind of this, like, grouping here between – it looks like you talked on, like, what, 17 to 20-ish. Yeah, I think when we look at it, and especially in Ryan's mock draft, I like the fit with Kalijah Cansey at 18 to Detroit or there at 21 to the Chargers. Tampa Bay is going to be a headache for everybody. I think you'll be hard-pressed when it comes draft time to find too many people that actually get Tampa Bay's pick right,

although they do tend to pick off of players that they have visits with. With all the visits that I have tracked, Tampa Bay is a team that has had the most visits with the most players. So that's one thing that I will be looking at. Darnell Wright's a player that they have visited with. So that was part of the connection there along with the offensive line. I don't think you can look at what Tom Brady did last year and them not having the success that they expected

and then think that they're going to be able to go ahead and have success with Baker Mayfield behind a suspect offensive line. So that's my connection there. But you're right. I think this group of players becomes a little bit harder to project. You know, Nolan Smith's another guy that is hard for me to project because you can have him as high as 12 there to Houston. If D'Amico Ryans wants to go ahead and get a toy or, you know, I have him here at Baltimore simply because year in and year out, Baltimore always has a player that slides, that's super talented, that slides to them. And they pass them up. Every single year. So an edge is a need for them.

So that's kind of where I landed in this mock draft. But, yeah, there's a lot that can happen with these teams in this range. Yeah. I come back from spinning, apparently apparently and you guys are just both smiling so i know something happened that i didn't know but i'm like oh they didn't hear me for the listeners the router's been an issue i don't know what happened uh it was great for a while we've had some issues last couple months got a new one and uh it lasted for an hour so we'll see it's a sign that uh producer sal is basically manipulate manipulating my router to say hey guys are going long let's get off here so well one thing i do want to bring up here i mean i don't have a ton of takes on the end of this draft here so if you guys have anything else but before we do hop off

i think it's worth noting neither of you have hennon hooker in the first round over under four and a half quarterbacks is started opened actually with the under or at the over at plus 400 initially with that. And that's now down to we're looking at the under four and a half quarterbacks being like minus 130 at this point. The over being about even money. I mean, this is gotten steamed massively. Daniel Jeremiah has been on Hennon Hooker's train since the beginning, but that's mostly been as a prospect and like what he envisions. Mike Tannenbaum came out and said he had him going fifth overall,

which is ludicrous. I mean, he's not going fifth overall. But then there's been some other buzz here and there. Scott, you shook your head. I'm shaking my head. I'm considering playing the under four and a half quarterbacks. I'm just not sure I really want that sweat. I don't know I mean any any takes here Scott on on Hendon Hooker because 25 years old coming off toward ACL in a system that doesn't translate in the NFL like what are we missing I

don't think we're missing much I think it would be absolutely reckless for any GM to uh take the the jump to to put Hendon Hooker and draft him in the first round. I think he will be a second-round pick. I just don't see the teams that, even Minnesota. You're a team that can make noise in the playoffs with the roster that you have. You want to add somebody that's going to be a viable player to kind of take the window that you have to be successful. I don't see Minnesota being that.

At this point in time, I just feel like it's a mass-wide propaganda effort from whoever Hendon Hooker's agent is pulling some strings and getting favor from the big media members. There is a little bit of smoke there, but the injury, being an older prospect, coming from the Tennessee offense that's not going to go not going to project well to the nfl i just don't see how a gm could be that reckless and make that decision as a first round we hear it all the time you want to get in and get that quarterback so you could solidify the fifth year option no one really ever does that it doesn't really happen very often

i think lamar is the last instance of that happening and really didn't happen a lot before lamar minnesota keeps being floated about. Minnesota has five picks in the entire draft. I don't think Minnesota makes the pick of 23. I think they're trading back. They're not staying home to make a selection for a quarterback who, as Connor laid out, Josh Heupel's offense at Tennessee does not translate very well to the NFL. He's coming off of an ACL.

He's 25 years old like he could be okay like i'm not saying that he has no shot to be a solid nfl player if he gets an absolute he gets a chance in the league it just doesn't mean that the team should take a shot um and again like you want to go simple there's not a home for him here at the bottom end of the draft we know team can trade in that makes sense too but like it just doesn't make a lot of sense in terms of you know are the team trying to think of teams that maybe have a quarterback that have an answer like we go back to the raiders or a team like the lions like they're not in position to be doing that it just doesn't make any sense to me i mean let's just

look at it real quick 21 on down to 31 the The chargers have a quarterback. Baltimore has a quarterback. Minnesota has a quarterback. Jacksonville, young quarterback, New York just broke the bank to sign a quarterback. Like every single one of these teams have no need for Hendon hooker. So it's just not going to happen in that 21 range. And you start talking in the top 20 picks Hendon hooker. It ain't happening.

It's just not. Yeah. I like that number. I mean, I thought it was like minus one 60 minus one 70, but now we're like minus one 30. Yeah. 20 picks hennon hooker it ain't happening it's just not yeah i like that number i mean i thought it was like minus 160 minus 170 but now we're like minus 130 yeah it kept going down i'm trying to ride this train as long as possible because i was gonna hit you guys up yeah let's see where it goes because like i'll buy i'll get in at 135 if we see it spiking or 140 or something like that because i think that that's i think that that's bettable like you said we talked about this

in earlier episodes we don't typically like to bet you know we're not laying a lot of juice we're betting props a lot not laying minus 140 a lot but and again we don't know that this won't happen but i feel really good about the hand and hooker's team being i don't know just steam and just being discussion and i think to scott's point like his his agent kudos my man he's paying some people off yeah good for you like you know that's your job pump your guys tires you know get him some visits get him drafted higher than he needs to be or should be that's your job great job but in terms of like betting on it or you know making it a good business decision for a team i just can't see someone pulling the trigger because also like this might not be a great

draft, but a lot of the feedback is like, there's not a lot of difference. Once you get into a certain spot here from like picks 15 to pick 60, like some front offices thing, it's actually fairly deep with not a lot of discrepancy in between those types of places. So like you can see teams trying to get into that range to, you know, to add guys more so than, you know, add future hopeful 25 year olds coming off of a torn knee ligament. So yeah, that's, that's a tough one for me. Scott, anyone in the back half for you that you wanted to highlight in terms of you're feeling pretty good about that landing spot or the fit, or even maybe the player who's trending upwards on your board or upwards into the first round well just to piggyback real quick off what you just said

when i start looking at some of these evaluations and we're talking about talent there most evaluators have first round grades on about 20 players in this draft you know you're going to have 31 guys go in the first round but not all all 31 are going to have first round grades you start having very similar prospects there on the back half. As far as players that I kind of like to fit, I like the Michael Mayer fit to Dallas right there. They just lost a big part of their offense with losing a tight end. I like the fit and what he can do.

Dallas is a little bit all over. I've seen defensive tackle. I've seen defensive tackle. I've seen tight end. He's just a player that I tend to like in that range. And then you start looking and, you know, I hate some of these names, but Adebowari, who I butchered last week, I've seen and heard some rumblings here down in New Orleans that he's a player that they like that is on airboard.

They have a huge need for a defensive line, so they can go in a number of directions. But I think when we start talking about these teams that are on this bottom end, I would tend to lean towards a little bit more defensive line prospects going rather than secondary prospects. I like it too, and I have that too. I think you see maybe there's some room for some offensive linemen

and defensive linemen more so than some of the secondary prospects as well I like the fit for Michael Mayer as well to Dallas I have him going much earlier I have him landing with your commanders at 16 which again I will trust you as we get a little bit closer if you know that seems to be a need for them but we'll see I do think that he's an interesting prospect. You do have those tight ends going pretty close and barely in the first round. So again, we do feel pretty good. I thought if we could have got really early, like post combine two and a half tight ends, I think we would have got plus money or at least even money. And then that steam all kind of fell out of that. And I feel pretty good about that. And then you look at when that comes out, it's like minus 300 uh and just no play there just to touch on the tight ends

you know benjamin robinson who we had on a couple of weeks ago at grinding the mox just had a huge update a data dump on on his site there at grinding the mox and they're back to having three tight ends going in the first first 32 picks so that's that's kind of the the other interesting to note with uh darnell washington being the third just don't see it i don't see the home for darnell washington either you know in terms of these teams sticking in and someone trading into the back end of the first round to add a tight end um you know unless these other guys go early like i have them going early and then you know the cowboys are locked in on a tight end you know that's probably the only home for it.

So the guy for me, I really like Anton Harrison. I think he's trending up. You know, the more I hear about him just, you know, starting, you know, in the Big 12 at left tackle for three years as a young prospect is apparently plug and play pass blocker out the gates, which I think is really nice. Maybe has some room to operate in terms of run blocking and some of that. But you know, for a team like the Bengals who want to throw it a ton,

have some shifting needs on the offensive line. I kind of like that player fits in terms of him there. Again, there's, you know, same thing. Like I I'm back and forth. I like you going Maisie Smith. I think I want to find a home for him in the first round. I didn't,

but I originally did too. Thought maybe Dallas was interesting for him too. So there's a lot of guys that I think it's going to be hard to cut some of these names out of the first round that, you know, kind of have both trends and fits in terms of some of these needs down here. So interested to see the, the next Connor Allen mock draft. Is that coming sooner than later? Do you have a timeframe in terms of when you're coming back with, are you doing just the third for just before the draft? You're gonna do another one soon. No,

I'll probably do another one. You know, I think, yeah, probably the next week, I'd guess sometime. And we just need more news. We need more markets,

you know, all that stuff. Like I think that that's, mean, we just need more news. We need more markets, you know, all that stuff. Like, I think that that's, yeah, we just need more of everything. And you can find these on the site, 444.com. And again, betting subscription gets you access to all the picks. You want to get all those plays right away. Subscribe. Use the $5 deal with No House Advantage.

You can use the promo code 444BETS. Deposit five bucks. Five bucks. And you get a three month betting sub again. It doesn't get you everything. It won't get you the full year. It won't get you the NFL season, but it gets you the three months and everything that comes with it.

So you get the NBA playoffs. You get the MMA stuff that Scott has going on. You get all of our draft plays and all of those good things. So good job fellows. Decent job router. Not bad. Could be better, but good stuff.

Connor, who's winning the masters dude i have no idea i did that masters pool um i think i just picked four random names that i like i picked like you need to pick season was al torres like okay um i don't know i think i picked scotty um my my father-in-law says that i look like scotty scheffler so i'm gonna take that and run with it um so a little bit you know i'll ride with that i'm sure scotty and i are not the same ethnicity but oh oh oh we gotta well we're probably too late to talk about this but we got a couple more over unders here that just dropped no we're good uh jackson smith and jigba over under 11 and a half probably a little too high probably a little too high too high uh or i don't know too

low i would bet the over on that that's right there in the range so it's basically either he either he goes to tennessee or it's over that's bears tennessee or way over i mean even then like i don't think the bears i don't think so joey porter jr 16 and a half those are the two that were under this drop i I like Joey Porter. I don't think he gets past Washington. Yeah, so under 16.5 is a very interesting look. I got to tell my guy thank you. Shout out to the DraftKingsTrader.

Just hits us up mid-show. We're not streaming, but we will probably in the coming weeks. And we can have some more live reactions to this. Those aren't bad. Those are decent numbers. They know what they're doing. This is the problem like they you know we just we destroyed this this market and now they are really slow and they

wait for all the box and they wait for all the information and then uh yeah they're just they're getting smarter so it makes sense you know you don't want to have the pnl line uh of just you know big red l's when they're you know the books are printing a hand over fist on everything else that they can put a same game parlay on. So they want to make sure they get as sharp as they can. So we'll see you all next time. you