Move The Line - WIN Big in 2023 with Our EXPERT NFL Win Totals Picks!

Episode Date: May 4, 2023

Get ready to dominate your 2023 NFL win totals betting card with our expert picks! In this video, we reveal our top picks for the upcoming season, including why we love the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South. Our analysis is based on a combination of data, trends, and insider knowledge, making these picks some of the most informed and reliable out there. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our picks will give you the edge you need to come out on top. Timestamps:0:00 Intro1:30 2023 NFL Draft Takeaways 11:00 Chargers Win Total15:19 Titans Win Total20:10 Seahawks Win Total25:24 Patriots Win Total33:09 Buccaneers Win Total38:21 Cardinals Win Total48:44 Bengals Win Total57:12 Eagles Win Total1:03:50 Jaguars to Win AFC South1:07:03 OutroShow Notes:Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansDeposit $5 With Promo Code 4FOR4BETS on No House Advatage to get a 3-Month 4for4 Betting Subscription 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/40CeWYaDeposit $5 With Promo Code 4FOR4BET on Vivid Picks to get a 3-Month 4for4 Betting Subscription 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3NaBrzNFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow Sharp on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/SharpClarkeNFLVisit our Website 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼 http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3OupraJ4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaNFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU

With the NFL draft behind us, it is time to turn the page to the 2023 regular season. Today on Move the Line, we're going to touch briefly on the draft, on the overall betting environment that we have this year. And then we're going to shift to a few noteworthy win totals that have piqued our interest. So let's dig in. yeah hello and welcome to move on I'm Ryan Noonan joins here as always by Connor Allen Connor uh making an annual tradition uh going to the draft every year how was your time in uh in Kansas City and your draft experience saw the PG version probably yeah it was uh really good uh I got to hang out with Dalton Cates and hang out with uh Dane probably one of the biggest draft bettors that I've ever met uh I think overall it was a fine draft uh I mean from our standpoint I think it could have gone

better for sure but you know I thought it was all right and otherwise uh you know probably had a little bit too much to drink uh you know in Kansas City on on the draft night, accordingly with how the draft planned out. But otherwise, it was a lot of fun. Excited to talk some ball here and get right back at it. I moved the line. Are you going to Detroit next season? It's in Detroit. We looked that up.

I think that might be a no. I mean, I don't know. I was on Uncle K's couch. Yeah, I think Kanisha would welcome us into his trailer. But I don't know if there's enough room. I mean, like, is there like enough room on the floor of the trailer but i honestly i'm not sure i don't think so though detroit seems kind of sus he can drive that thing around though so he can put it in a parking lot somewhere we can camp out which would be really nice so all right well uh we you know typically

it's a familiar face but uh with the draft now behind us, we're shifting on the third chair here on Move the Line. This is a familiar name and face to those subscribers here at 444. This is a gentleman that you'll not only be able to read his content and chat with him in Discord this season, he's also having a permanent spot here on Move the Line this season. It is Sharp Clark. Clark, my friends, welcome. Excited to get to talk to you every week. How are we doing? Yeah, I'm super excited to be part of this. I've been looking forward to this. I don't really participate as much in the draft process, so this is when things really get going for me, and I'm super excited to talk. We're only four months out, four months till kickoff, so that

flies by. Let's get going. Yeah, and so shout outs at the top. Want to give Scott Smith some love. Scott was fantastic to have on during the draft process. Obviously very plugged in and knowledgeable there. He was a great resource for us during that. And hopefully it's something that we can continue that relationship. Scott's still plugging along with MMA content for us at 4-4. But yeah, Scott's a stud. Finished right inside, just around the top 10 in mock draft accuracy.

Our boy Daigle also finished in the top three there. So shout out to those guys for the fantastic work that they did. But yeah, really, really, really excited to have Clark on. So we're going to have at least one new show here every week leading up to the start of the season. Lots of other original content on the 444Bets YouTube page. So please subscribe if you'd like to support the free content in any way. Thumbs up on the video, comment goes a long way in helping us.

Jump in the chat. Let us know what your favorite win total bet is right now. We'd love to hear about it. Still available, obviously, in podcast form as well. So subscribe there too so you don't miss a show. We really, really appreciate that. Connor, I'm going to start with you. A few thoughts on miss a show. We really, really appreciate that. Connor, I'm going to start with you. A few thoughts on the draft before we jump into some win totals.

Obviously the betting market this year was a little bit different than we were expecting, but talk to me about the draft a little bit. Yeah, I think the draft really shifted here at the top with the Texans taking CJ Stroud going second. And I think that it's really important to hit on that. I still feel good that will, that CJ shot was not the top quarterback on their board. And that, uh, that came from McNair, uh, you know, kind of like phoning one in that they needed to take him. Uh, and so when that happened, I think that they had the understanding that they were going to be able to trade up to number three as well. So I've seen many takes about how that whole process was a little bit messy and how, like, well, why did they trade up so much for number three from their standpoint, if they're going to do both, I kind of

understand it, but the whole concept of doing both, I think just kind of misses the boat on what they could have gotten a 12th. They'd stayed the draft capital that they gave up to get up to three, which is like shaping up to be, you know, right. Right now a top two pick, but I would guess probably a top 10 pick when it's all said and done. Either way, a ton to give up here for a guy that potentially they didn't even like that much a quarterback and a guy who's not an elite talent in Will Anderson. So there's a lot of issues here with this Texans team. And then obviously from there, I think there were some other big, you know, draft things to talk about, specifically the Lions, which, you know, are a team that added talent, as I think both you guys would agree with, but

the opportunity costs that they, you know, had of drafting Jameer Gibbs at 12 and Jack Campbell, you know, a linebacker at 18 was pretty significant relative to some other opportunities there that they had. I mean, I'm playing on a couple of scenarios in my head. One of the biggest ones is like, what if they drafted Tyree Wilson and Deontay Banks or Jalen Carter and Deontay Banks, or even Klaja Kansey at 18 instead. There are so many different ways that they could have gone about this. I think got players that like premium positions instead, they pick two guys who will help, but are just not a premium position.

So that's kind of where I'm at. I thought that was surprising. But yeah, I mean, I don't know, onto this year, you know, it's the draft is over with maybe on some NBA draft stuff as well in the four, four discord. But yeah, that's some of the points I wanted to talk on there too, is that the Texans, that's an egregious trade to give up that much. And I've heard people want to kind of package it to say like, Oh no, it's, they really, if you think of it as that, they were trading up for CJ Stroud, it's less egregious, which

is like, I guess maybe true, but they didn't trade up for CJ Stroud, it's less egregious, which is like, I guess maybe true, but they didn't trade up for CJ Stroud. They already drafted CJ Stroud. It was, they had take lock on a player and then they wanted to draft Will Anderson. So they were married to the idea that they had to leave the draft with Will Anderson and basically gave up four first rounders almost to make that happen in terms of where, you know, those, those trades at the 33rd pick is just right outside that. Arizona did a great job, fleece them to do so. Arizona is going to be a spot next year where they're, you know, a better draft top to bottom and could have what amounts to be the number one

pick from the Texans. Like, and again, like the Texans could have a better season, but thinking that that's going to be outside the top 10 is probably a stretch. And knowing that the Cardinals are going to be up for a tough year too. Gosh, really, really bad trade for the Texans. And in the same division, I think the Colts had a home run draft as well. Just basically betting on athletes. I love the Anthony Richardson trade.

I'm sure we'll have a lot of discourse around that all season long leading up to it. I think the mindset of all four of the quarterbacks in the top had questions, shoot for the sky and get the guy that has absolute ceiling home run potential, I think is a really good process. So I really, I like that. And then there's some other guys that I really like in this draft. Josh Downs should have been drafted way earlier. They were able to add him. Fits really nicely with what Michael Pittman does, what Alec Pierce does. I love Julius Brents at corner. He's 6'3 and has top 3% shuttle and three cone stuff. Based on guys that are 5'8, he's doing it at 6'3. I think he's going to be a baller in this league. Will Mallory, tight end late in that draft. I just really like what the Colts did, betting on athletic talents. And yeah, I think that they're in a better position for the future. I don't know that

they're going to be players this year at all. Anthony Richardson is going to be definitely a question mark for sure in the short term, but I don't know. I'm excited about watching him play football. Clark, I know you're not in the weeds on some of this stuff as much as. Yeah, I my approach on the draft is we analyze it so much and we come away with these really concrete opinions on this was a bad pick. This was bad process. And what ends up happening in reality is there's so much variance and unknown with these players and the fit and how they play in the NFL. We won't really know who had a good draft until, you know, at the end of the season, or maybe even later. Like last year, the Seahawks killed it in the draft, but we didn't know that

at the time. Their late round picks ended up being, you know, premium starters in year one. So I tend to hold off on harsh opinions. What we do get from the draft is signals of where the team is headed. So the Texans' win total went up and the Cardinals' win total went down for this year after the draft because the Cardinals signaled, look, we're fine packing it in this year and picking it up next year. And the Texans signaled the opposite. They're apparently all in right now, which is inadvisable, but also does move the win total up for this season so that that's kind of

my perspective on draft yeah so let's turn the page um before we do i want to remind you it's great time to scoop up a betting subscription to four for four a betting sub is going to secure access to everything on our site everything that you're going to need to be profitable this season articles tools rankings projections if you're playing dfs to be profitable this season. Articles, tools, rankings, projections. If you're playing DFS, high stakes, redraft. We have all the best ball tools and content that you could ever imagine. I think the subscriber-only Discord is really the crown jewel of the subscription. All of our staff bets are posted there. We have channels for every sports.

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full year is probably where you need to go. But again, VividPix, promo code 444BET, $5 deposit. You'll get an email within 24 hours to let you know how to access that for basically the rest of the summer. An absolutely great deal. All right, gents, win totals a few weeks away from the official schedule release. We know who these teams are playing, though. Most shops had win totals posted before the draft. We've already fired at a few in our Discord, but today we want to dig in to a few each

to get your thoughts based on the updated prices in the space. And Clark, I'm going to start with you. You've been digging into this and we've been looking into these draft prospects and firing draft bets and you've still been in there in the streets firing at divisions and win totals and you got to absolutely love it. So you get the floor first today. Yeah, sure. So let's start with the Chargers.

This number is not right. They're listed at nine and a half wins up until, I don't know if it was today or yesterday, you could have got minus 105 on the over at FanDuel. That's moved to 115, but you can still get minus 110 at most shops. The Chargers are a really good team. And I think people miss the context of what happened last season. One of the most underrated injury impacts that happens game to game is when there's a cluster injury in the offensive line or wide receivers, because what happens is not only are you missing the receiver. Let's take the receivers first. Not only are you missing your top receiver,

but you're missing another receiver. So now you've got a guy who's usually a slot receiver or a backup receiver lining up against the number one cornerback. That takes that option away. And now you've got like fourth string receivers on the other side, or you're moving guys around completely messes up the entire offense. And with the offensive line, it's a weak link system. So when you're missing one guy, you can kind of, you know, chip chip or help, or, you know, set up things to kind of cover that one gap. When you have two guys down, like the Chargers did for much of last year, you're just scrambling every play.

And so with those combined, there were multiple games where the Chargers were missing multiple linemen and multiple receivers. And they still won 10 games last year against, you know, not an easy schedule because you have an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert. Their offense was also neutered by play calling by Joe Lombardi that just, you know, refused to use Herbert to his full extent. They brought in Kellen Moore, who got kicked out

of Dallas for being too aggressive and too pass heavy. So I think this all culminates in a very good team, a Chargers team that should be competitive with the best teams in the AFC, and they're not being priced that way because they were, you know, they underachieved last year. They still covered the win total. And in week 17, they benched Justin Herbert and lost the game. They could have won. So they could have had 11 wins last year, despite all those injuries. I don't think the charges have gotten worse.

So I'm looking at back that one over. Yeah, this is a basically to your point, if they stay healthy, this is a roster that's ready to compete. Now, Chargers staying healthy is something that's never really happened in the last decade or so, but there aren't a lot of holes in the roster. I'm surprised they didn't address corner or defensive back a little bit earlier in the draft. They're going to need JC Jackson, I think, to play as he was paid. With Bryce Callahan leaving in free agency, they had Adderley basically retire out of nowhere.

So they do have some questions there. I do think that there are some pending free agents still out there. Joe Johnson III is out there, and I think that he'd be a nice addition for them in the secondary. They need to stay healthy, but as you mentioned, I like the Kellen Moore upgrade. I think it's pretty massive. Connor, do you have any thoughts on the Chargers?

Yeah, that's my biggest takeaway was the coaching different year difference here because it seemed like you know lombardi was really focusing on like shorter passes obviously came from like a you know sean payton drew breeze kind of uh offense and now we're looking at a guy i mean you know herbert is like a hose man like he's got an absolute cannon there's just some on like unbelievable arm talent and so i think unlocking that with kellen moore is. And then obviously the addition of Quentin Johnson as well, I think will really help open this offense up because you saw, you talked about the injuries with the wide receivers.

Like as soon as Keenan Allen was not there, Mike Williams went down there, like none of them are really good enough to be like the focal point of the offense. And like, then they have all these bums running around otherwise. You know, it was basically relying on Herbert to make a play until those guys got open.

Whereas like now at this point, you have three good guys. As long as two of them stay healthy, I'm confident that you can find some type of offense that works. But with two, it's way more fragile. So Quinn Johnson doesn't need to be the guy or anything from week one, but he needs to be able to stretch the field, catch some screens, make some things happen. That's all you need out of him. And I think that they're in a really good spot going forward forward with that offensively so yeah nine and a half feels light to me and i thought it should be like nine and a half maybe you know minus 140 to the over something like that if you want to make it a nine and a half right now we're looking like nine and a half minus 105 to the open so yeah i definitely lean over here for sure as well yeah i like to play

i think maybe there's some and the division's tough because again the chiefs are just so good so you're probably safer on safer on backing him this way. But they're probably going to get a pretty good number there to win the division as well. So I like the Chargers. Connor, how about you? What's your first look? Yeah, my first look here is going to be on the Titans, actually. So if we look at this Titans team, last year in free agency, they lost their right guard, Nate Davis.

They lost Robert Woods to Marcus Walker, David Long Jr. Austin Hooper, Dennis Daly on the offensive line, Taylor Luan, all of those players played over 60% of their snap, except for Hooper and Walker just massive holes in the secondary. They're in 28th and EPA per play 27th and explosive pass rate allowed last year. And so what did the Titans do in the draft? They added Skronsky 11, which is fine. You know, they needed help on the offensive line. Still, it makes sense, but they didn't add anyone to their secondary until they added, yeah, I guess there's no, no one throughout the entire draft. They drafted Will Levis. And then in the second round, they added running back and Ty J Spears, who doesn't even have an ACL and they have Derek Henry, who I think they're going to want to lean

on. So it's like, when you think about this defense and this offense, their defense front seven is obviously still super strong. You know, like they're probably going to be a good run defense, but in today's NFL, I just don't really think that that matters all that much. And with the offensively, is their offensive line good enough to rely on say they're running back with 10 Hill, Derek Henry, kind of like their old offensive. We've seen of them, like, you know, just trying to like run, run, pass, rely on Henry to carry the load without a good offensive line. And without Derrick Henry still being able to carry that like 400 carry load, essentially, it kind of decreases the chances that that's sustainable throughout an

entire season. And so with those two factors there and the past defense, potentially putting more pressure on the offense, like they're, they're just in a really tough spot to consistently win games here. So at seven and a half, I still like the wind total under, I know he played this before the draft. We're hoping to get some, like if they, they were trying to trade up to three for CJ Stroud in that instance, I mean, that means that they're in a really bad spot, but they're kind of like a soft rebuild right now. And so for me, I think the under is still a good look. I know that their coaching is strong and that they still have a couple of good pieces, but I'm just not very bullish on this team

in general right now, even given the weak division. It is the coaching that scares me. There is just some like Mike Tomlin vibes here with Tennessee. It's like no matter what's going on on the roster in Pittsburgh, they seem to at least get around 500 or so.

And Vrabel, I think, is just a talent elevator and a difference maker. But you can't argue that this is a good roster almost anywhere. I think that they actually have a decent secondary. They have some nice safeties. They really basically struggle everywhere else. I guess some defensive line is decent. But, yeah, the offense is a problem.

Offensive line is going to be gross. What do you got here, Clark? Anything on the Titans? It's funny you brought up Mike Tomlin because this team reminds me a lot of the 2021 Steelers, the last year of Ben Roethlisberger. That team had no offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger was just kind of a shell back there. They didn't have a ton of weapons, but their defense was really, really good. And this Titans defense is really, really good in my opinion. If Harold Landry comes back fully healthy with Justin Simmons on that line or Jeffrey Simmons, this is a, you know, this is an elite defensive line potentially with that good secondary that will

keep them in games. But what happened in 2021 with the Steelers was there was a period of time where JJ Watt got hurt and a couple other guys and the Steelers were just terrible. So if there, if any defensive injuries happen to the Titans, I think this season really just becomes a collapsed season. But if their defense stays healthy with that excellent coaching and strong defense and relatively easy schedule considering where they finished last year, I think there's a chance they could be competitive. I just don't understand what this team's going for. So it's hard for me to have a definitive read on them. Yeah, I'm with you, Connor.

I agree, though. Seven and a half, having to get to eight, I think is still the right play and the right lean for sure. Someone's going to win some games in that division. I just don't think it's going to be Tennessee, even though they probably have the best coaching in there. I think there's still a chance that they trade away some guys, too, eventually, depending on how things are going in the preseason.

I mean, because they did draft. I mean, Tajay Spears in the third round is a little bit rich if you have Derrick Henry. I mean, obviously I know you need depth, but like in the third round, a guy who doesn't even ACL, I don't know, it just seemed like a strange pick. And then Will Levis again in the second round, like you want to plan ahead, but I don't know. I mean, it seems a little bit early at this point.

Like there are so many other holes that they have. So I don't know. Yeah, it just seems like they are probably a little bit more volatile than I'm giving them credit for but like again if there's any anyone goes down there in the front seven like they're just not really in a good spot and they to make clark's point like landry yeah they need landry to come up there's not a lot behind landry so they really really do need him to have any sort of pass rush here to support uh the back end which is pretty decent again but you gotta have you gotta have a pass rush here so um i back end, which is pretty decent again, but you got to have, you got to have a pass rush here. So I don't mind the Will Levis pick. I think you got to

plan for the future, you know, to get out of the Tannehill deal. We saw enough from Malik Willis last year to know he's not the answer. You can take a shot at Tannehill. It makes, makes a ton of sense. So again, you just, you don't have anything if you don't have a quarterback and you know, they definitely don't have anything else, even if they don't have a quarterback. So I think it was, it was worth a shot. I'm going to start with the seahawks i think the seahawks were a popular early ad in terms of uh win total when they first came out you still get over eight and a half at uh bet mgm and minus 120 i like to look at you know the schedule like i said we we don't have the actual schedule but we know these teams play. We know the interdivision matchups,

and then I've been trying to really look at the unique three because each team plays three unique opponents. So the NFC West is playing the AFC North and the NFC East this year. But the Seahawks have a pretty easy unique three comparatively. They have the Panthers. Then they go at Detroit and at Tennessee, who we just picked on. So really no strong teams in there. I think we're going to think Detroit's going to be better.

We talked about them at the top adding more talent there. So a road trip to Detroit is, I guess, with a tougher game. But again, at Tennessee and home to Carolina, a pretty easy break in terms of the schedule for the Seahawks. And again, this is a team, as Clark mentioned at the top, nailed the draft last year. They do not come into the season with a lot of holes. They had a lot of flexibility to do really whatever they wanted in the draft. They took my boy, Devin Witherspoon, next to Tariq Wolin on the side. That is a lot of talent in the secondary. I think they have a great group of safeties as well. They didn't really get anything out of

Jamal Adams last year, but they added Julian Love from the Giants to come over to add depth there. I really like that unit. Their only hole really to me is pass rush. They're going to need something either out of, you know, they got Boye Mafe last year in the draft in the second round. They're going to need him to contribute. They also added the kid Hall out of Auburn. They're going to need some to contribute. They also added the kid Hall out of Auburn. They're going to need some stuff from him this year.

It's pretty much the only really weakness, I think, on this club. So I think in that division, it's pretty winnable. You know, I think we talked about what's going on with Arizona. They're going to play probably at least half the year without Kyler Murray. I think that the Rams are closer to being in full tank mode than anything that resembles a playoff team. We already played the under seven and a half there. That is kind of getting juiced out. It hasn't moved, but the juice is kind of getting away from us a little bit.

I think there's just a lot of wins on the schedule for a Seahawks team. Now, Geno Smith was kind of Jekyll and Hyde, first half, second half last year, but they've done a great job supporting and bringing in Jackson Smith and Jigba along with Tyler Lockett and DK Medcalf. I just, I really liked this team, Clark. What are your thoughts on Seattle? Yeah, I really liked Seattle too. And it looks like they killed the draft again this year.

They made some good picks in the early rounds. I liked Gino Smith. I thought he played really well. I think this team is well-rounded. My biggest concern is the rest of the schedule. The big three that you mentioned aren't too tough, but the 49ers in division, Rams I'm not so sure about, they match up against, I believe, the NFC East. So that's Eagles. NFC East and AFC North.

And AFC North is just stacked. So it is a tough road that they're going to have to be really good. I think to, to eclipse that wind total. Um, I actually, I played them to win the NFC earlier in the off season because I think their upside is pretty high. If they're going to be a really good team, if they're going to make the playoffs, they're going to be good enough to compete in that NFC. Um, so I do, I'm more bullish on the Seahawks, but if one or two things go wrong, their schedule will eat them up. Connor, any thoughts on CL? No, I think you guys hit on most of it. Honestly, I guess my only concern is that like Gino Smith is the second half guy that we saw last, uh, last year, you know, because in the

first half, like, I mean, he was top three and like EPA and like everything, like he was like, you know, a borderline, just like miracle of how much he improved now in the second half. I mean, I wouldn't say he was like bad. He just wasn't like obviously playing at that level. And so I think that that is a little bit concerned if they get into, you know, more shootout games. I mean, not having a pass rush puts a lot of pressure on your, on your secondary there. I mean, Devin Witherspoon, obviously we both really like, and they, the secondary did play well last year, but it's just almost to an extent, like if you're not continuing, like consistently generating pressure. And if you're not able to stop the run at all, like it kind of leads to some issues and maybe puts more stress

on your offense and your passing game. So that'd be my only concern. Otherwise I do think that they killed the draft. I mean, you compare them, they had picks five and 20 Detroit at six and 18 when they started, I mean, Devin Witherspoon and Jackson said, then jig buffers, Jameer Gibbs, Sam Laporta and Jack Campbell. I mean, it's like not even close. Like it's like, you know, completely different trajectories there. So overall I thought it was good. I think even a NAF probably lean over for me, but I don't think I'm as quite as excited about them. Yeah. I like the Draymond Jones signing too. He came over from Denver. He was in San Francisco the year before he led all defensive interior linemen in run-stop win rate.

So I think he anchors that defensive line in a way that they just didn't have anyone like that last year. They kind of were able to scrape it together without a pass rush or the ability to stop the run. So I like what they've been able to do to address that and get a little bit better. So maybe I'm a little bit bullish on Geno because I do think he's a key element here, but I like what they've done

to build up around him like adding Charbonnet too to add depth behind Kenneth Walker who was you know a lot of big plays but a lot of inefficiency too so like they just they just have added depth and I kind of like where they're at this year so all right Clark back to you for your second thought yeah so let's talk about the Patriots. A couple of years ago, people were super excited about the Washington defense after a really strong year. And I was down on them because their defensive metrics were inflated by playing a bunch of backup quarterbacks. So when people look back at defensive performance, they typically will do some kind of schedule adjustment that says, well, here's how they perform, but here's how their opponents performed

on average, right? But what happens is sometimes teams will just face a bunch of backup quarterbacks or teams in bad offensive situations the very week they play them, which can skew those season-long metrics. So take the Patriots this year. Last year, this is a list of quarterbacks they beat last year. Trubisky, Brissett,ett Zach Wilson twice Colt McCoy Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson Sam Ellinger and then Jared Goff with no Deandre Swift and Amon Ross St Brown was concussed early and some offensive linemen were out too that was that was all their wins this was their losses Tua Lamar Aaron Rogers Justin Fields Kirk Cousins Josh Allen Derek Carr Joe Burrow Josh Allen so basically they took advantage of a bunch of really bad quarterbacks. And then when they played good

quarterbacks, they lost. And that's that can sometimes get people excited because they look at the metrics and like, man, the Patriots defense was so good last year and all these different metrics, but they weren't that good against good quarterbacks. And then you fast forward to this year's schedule. And this is assuming no injuries, which you never can assume. But you know, you get a picture of it. This is the quarterbacks they're facing this year. Josh Allen twice, Tua twice, Aaron Rodgers twice, Mahomes, Herbert, Russell Wilson, Jimmy G, Hertz, Dak, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, and then whoever's playing quarterback for Washington and Indianapolis. Okay, so that's two easy ones at the end there, but for the most part, they're not getting any layups unless crazy injuries happen. So I think we're going to see some major regression from the Patriots defense,

which is going to put more pressure on their offense. And we've seen nothing from Mac Jones recently in the last year to suggest he can go toe to toe with this quality of quarterback, with this caliber of quarterback, especially with the weapons that he's got. Now, I recognize that Bill O'Brien is going to bring in a much better offensive scheme than they worked with last year. And that needs to be accounted for in the price. But I think at under seven and a half wins, getting plus money right now, I think by MGM,

you get plus 105 on the under seven and a half. I think the odds are greater than 50%. They fall under the seven and a half. So getting plus money makes it a good bet, in my opinion. Connor, Patriots, what do you got? I mean, they're the worst team in the division for sure so sure um and i think you brought up a lot of good points there obviously the i don't

necessarily love betting against bill belichick just in general um but at this point you know like i think you got you made a bunch of great points there specifically about their defense yeah i would probably lean under but i mean like again it's plus money so even if it's a 50 50 toss up like you're getting plus money so it's like oh you only have to be right 50 of the time to be uh to make money on this honestly i haven't dug in too much into this patriots team yet in the offseason but i don't know newton i'm curious to hear your thoughts on this because i know you're obviously a little bit more uh opinionated on the patriots yeah i mean to be honest i mean like fandom has slowly died over the last handful of

years just again is spending more time in the space and you know my favorite team is whoever has you know the largest ticket on a sunday so it's you know less about the the laundry than it used to be so i think clark laid out great points. Inarguably, they have the most difficult schedule in the league when you look at their schedule versus Vegas win totals. It is just a gauntlet to get through. I think that, again, what they did last year defensively against bad quarterbacks and good quarterbacks, probably hard to argue that. I think that there's a lot of talent on this defense. I think that they injected a ton of talent. And I think people that didn't like the Patriots draft were mad that they spent a ton of capital on adding to that. They've done

a great job adding depth of positions, planning for a free agency in the next year or two, hoping that you can get some offensive help solely based off of a pretty massive change at coordinator, right? We, last year was a disaster. We knew it, we talked about it and it was even worse than we thought it was. We know that there's drama with Belichick being upset that Mack went to Bill O'Brien while he was still at Alabama to vent about his, his situation. So Bill O'Brien is back in the fold.

We'll have a NFL offense coming out of New England this year, and that's a step up. Now, there's still maybe an overall lack of talent. They're definitely the worst team in the division. It's the worst quarterback in the division. So a path to under seven and a half at plus money totally makes sense. I just will push back on the defense overall. It's going to be really really good and there's a lot of talent and playmakers there and they have depth at all three levels so again they're gonna have to run hot because the gauntlet of quarterbacks that clark listed off is going to be a nightmare so i think the bet's probably the right way to go i

would lean under just because i do think that they are comfortably the worst team in the division especially at the quarterback position. And we know that that's King. There's more variance on the defensive side. Yeah, and not just variance, but defensive metrics tend to be so heavily skewed towards the quality of opponents faced. So the Patriots might have a really good defense,

but even a really good defense against that slate of quarterbacks, and again, unless injuries happen, even a really good defense is not going to perform at a high level metrically because quarterbacks or good quarterbacks will beat good defenses in today's nfo plus even even with the scheme adjustment or like the scheme changes offensively like davante parker kendrick bourne juju smith schuster i mean that's fine but like are you really that excited about that like are you really you really, I mean, yeah, right. Like, I mean, you can, the offensive line, I think is solid. I wouldn't say that they're like spectacular or anything either. So even if you want to go with like a completely different approach, you know, like they're not going to be spreading out teams without, with that class of

wide receivers, like what is the offense going to look like? It has to be better. It can't be much worse. And even then, I think there's serious questions about Mac Jones. Like I think he's much better than what we saw last year. really do i think that what we saw at alabama is you know significantly better but obviously maybe he's rattled maybe like he's completely shook like there's a chance that he never recovers from what happened last year because that was embarrassing and bad like it was so bad so i don't know i think there's a lot of questions about this thing yeah and then i think it's fair, right? Like Devante Parker, Juju Smith,

Schuster, those aren't separators, right? They're not getting out there and creating a ton of separation and speed. It's not really their game. Yeah. Connor Allen said that he could guard Devante Parker one-on-one.

I could line me up. Like the least amount of separation in the league, like the last few years, I think actually last year he played relatively well, relative to expectations, but like his prop each week was like 25 yards and he would like get like 20, 20,

you would end up with like 15 to 35 every single week. Yeah. It's not a great spot. We're really hoping that six round pick a former first round projected pick. K Sean booty comes out and contributes in year one. Not a great place to be. And you need big slot Mike Gesicki to step up and be your separator.

It's not a great place to be. So, yeah, I think it's the right way to go. Like I said, I cheer for the laundry less than I used to. It's not a bet that I can make. I don't want to be rooting for that to happen. But I think, especially at plus money, Clark, I think you laid out a really good point for it uh connor next spot to you buddy oh you were frozen for a minute are you there yeah so my next team

and next can you hear me my my screen's a little bit frozen here just go to your next name give me give me a second here give me a second my wife i go to your next team dude technology all right i'm going to talk about the bucks i think the bucks are let's see mgm is the best spot under six and a half at plus 105 on tampa bay uh fan duel has minus 115 as well which is a decent price i can talk about the unique three so the bucks play the nfc north and the afc south some wins can be had in there, I suppose. The unique three, Philly at Buffalo at San Francisco. That's really, really tough for a team that is devoid of talent on both sides of the ball.

The offensive line is rough. I know that they were trying to prioritize offensive line in the first round, we've heard, but the board didn't fall their way. It's, it's a, it's not great starting unit and there's really no depth behind it. It's going to be rough. Obviously the dropdown from even whatever we saw from Tom Brady last year to a Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask-led team is something that it's really hard to have a lot of optimism in. The secondary is thin. You know, I like Carlton Davis. I think Jamal Dean can play.

Behind them, there's really nothing. Same thing at safety. They brought over Ryan Neal from Seattle. Antoine Winfield is back in there. They basically need to stay really, really healthy. And even then, I'm not sure that this is a seven-win football team. So I just don't really see it here with the box. The schedule is not breaking their way and doing them any favors either. And I think that they

would love to be in a spot where they tank. We could see them late in the season be kind of hovering, maybe have three or four wins and be in a spot where they're really not motivated to go out and really compete in December, knowing that Drake May and Caleb Williams are on the board if they happen to have the top spot in the draft. So Tampa Bay is a under, especially a six and a half at plus 105 is a play I like quite a bit. Clark, what do you think? Yeah, I think I'm with you by default. I'm not betting it, but I'm, I for the Bucs, if you're going over, is, hey, this division sucks. How can a team in a division with Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans be six and a half wins? But the thing is, I'm more bullish on some of those teams. The Falcons, I'm definitely bullish on. The Saints, I'm bullish on. Even the Panthers, I'm not optimistic,

but having a rookie quarterback just creates a lot of uncertainty. They could be good. So, so if you're bullish on the rest of the teams in the, in the NFC South, then I think the under for the bucks does make sense. If that's how you want to play it. Where are you at there, Connor?

Yeah. I'm curious, Clark, if you look back on Baker Mayfield, like the last year, you're like, what are your thoughts? Your takeaways?

Cause my just like resounding memory was that he's garbage, but like, I want, I need another opinion here on anything. So yeah, yeah, I don't think he's garbage. I think I've always been a little bit higher on Baker than market. But he needs a good situation. Like he needs to be kept up right. It's much better for him when the running game is working. Like think about when he was doing well in Carolina, it was when they had CMC carrying most of the load, his best and then in Cleveland too like they had a really good run

game when he was playing his best football he he can throw he can make all the throws but when it's on him when the pressure's on him it's third and seven and he has to complete that third down like he's not the kind of guy that I want to be relying on for that I don't think the Bucks with the state of the offensive line has what it takes to produce Baker's upside. Yeah. I think that's kind of the issue here is the offensive line specifically is like, you're putting a lot of pressure on Mayfield, like actually make plays there. And obviously like, you know, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin are good weapons, but at the same time, like if you're not, if you're not able to get a running game going, if you're not able to, I mean, do play action because your offensive line can't hold up.

Like there's like so many other issues that are caused by that, that you're definitely not going to get the best out of Baker Mayfield. Like, yeah. Like, and I think we've seen that, like the lows have been really low. And when, when he doesn't have those weapons, it's been pretty bad. So I'm a little bit concerned in this spot for him. I like the under as well. It was, it would have been one of my picks, honestly, on the show.

Um, because I just, I mean, the defense I think is okay, concerned in this spot for him. I like the under as well. It was, it would have been one of my picks, honestly, on the show. Because I just, I mean, the defense I think is okay, but at this point, like there's so many other issues offensively that I don't, I just don't have enough confidence in Mayfield to overcome those. Yeah. The defense can be fine,

but again, they have to run just absolutely pure to stay healthy, to make sure that they don't have to get into any of the depth same thing with the offensive line which i think is going to be problematic anyway uh they start to get any sort of cluster injury and this is just this downfalls really quick i was just pulling up to because my internet works and i'm able to pull up things live on show now um baker mayfield in his time with the Rams, 24th in composite EPA, incompletion percentage over expectation during his time with the Rams,

24th out of 30. He had a 39.4% success rate with the Rams. So not great. He was also working with some dregs of an offense at that point in the season, which is my Baker Mayfield handicap. He's not going to create offense when he doesn't have the weapons all right connor you seem uh functional uh back to you with your second thought yeah so my second one is going to be the cardinals we touched on earlier here but their win total is still at five and a half in some spots pretty heavily juiced towards the under four and a half it uh i believe it's juiced towards the under four and a half.

It, uh, I believe it's draft Kings and FanDuel right now. And they're, that's actually starting to get juiced towards the under here. If we look at this team, I mean, when will Kyler be back? Is it half a season? Is it a quarter of the season? What's the deal with Deandre Hopkins? Uh, I mean, he says that he's coming back, but like, I don't think players are to be trusted in terms of like, well, what's going on there.

Uh, they obviously, they lost Zach Allen, JJ Watt, Byron Murphy. They added some help on the offensive line with Will Hernandez, Kelvin Beecham and drafted Paris Johnson. But like their defense, I think, I mean, their defense might be the worst in the league, honestly. Like, I think it's, it's, it's gotta be close because like, if we look at who they drafted, they drafted a linebacker, BJ Ojolari is undersized. He'll probably be a week one starter. Cornerback in Garrett Williams, who's coming off of a torn ACL, probably won't be 100% for the season either.

And they're currently expected to start Marco Wilson again at corner. Graded 100th out of 118 corners. Had a couple interceptions, which actually buoyed his numbers, but overall allowed 11.2 yards per reception, over 500 yards in the season. Just, I really struggled to find a way that this team, if Kyler was going to play like three quarters of the season, I think that the over would be, or the under would be a tough sell just because Kyler, I think can make a difference.

But given all these factors here, like if they start, you know, really poorly, like, I mean, they'll probably play Kyler. Cause I guess he's playing for his job at that point, but like, really poorly, like, I mean, they'll probably play Kyler because I guess he's playing for his job at that point. But like, still like, it's not, it's, it's a, there's so such a messy situation here that I'm struggling to find, you know, much interest with this team at all. And like, I think the offense could be okay with Kyler and Hopkins and the offensive line probably a little bit better, but like the defense for me just has so many questions here across the board.

So like, especially with all they've lost. So that's kind of where I'm at. I know Dalton said cards under hammer time. Yeah, I mean, I don't know about hammers specifically, but I definitely like the under here. Even a four and a half or five and a half, I struggle to find a way that they win too many games. And they're incentivized to be terrible because, again,

they have all that capital for next year. And then maybe a Tyler conversation, depending on how he plays when he returns at all.ark what's your initial instinct on the cardinals uh yeah do we do we even know who's playing quarterback for them until kyler comes back i think colt mccoy right now based off of the roster yeah and i i don't have inside information but i i'm not sure about colt mccoy like i i know that he had mentioned sometime last year that he was considering retiring. So I don't know.

We'll see what happens with the quarterback. This team is, like you said, incentivized to be back. There's nothing here to be optimistic about. It all depends on when Kyler Murray comes back for me. You know, if he's, if he's planning on coming back and feels like he has something to prove, he's the kind of quarterback that can make something unlike Baker Mayfield. He can make something out of nothing. He's that kind of, that kind of player. So, so I'm a little hesitant to go under four and a half,

because that's such a low number with that uncertainty out there. But I do understand that, you know, their new head coach, he's not expected to win this year. Like they hired him for the future. Gannon, right? So Gannon has a little bit of time to work with. And I think with the draft capital they have next year, it makes all the sense in the world to just full on tank. So I understand the under angle. There's no way I'd go over. You look at their schedule. it looks like they're probably favored maybe twice in any game, home to the Rams. They play,

they play at Houston. So that's probably a coin flip. So maybe just home to the Rams is probably their only spot where they're looking like a favorite. If that. Yeah. They're still favored by schedules. Yeah.

You're going through schedules. You're like, Oh yeah. Cardinals, that's a win. Yeah. Which, you know, it never really works out that way. No, but just looking through it and trying to find out more so, like, where I think lines are going to open, there just doesn't seem to be a lot of spots where you're like, oh, yeah, the Cardinals will be favored there.

Like, even Atlanta at home. Like, I know you're bullish on Atlanta. I think Atlanta's a better football team, without a doubt. So, yeah, I'm, I'm there too. The only hesitancy that I have is I just don't think that I do. I want to have,

I have a Rams under position that I feel strongly about. Like someone's going to win games in this division. Someone's going to win those games. They play head to head, not necessarily. They could, they could tie, which would be very interesting,

but yeah, that's, it's, that's the only problem. That's actually the same reason why I have not played a Colts under yet either, because I feel pretty good that it's looking like Richardson might start for three quarters of the season. And at that point, I mean, I'm interested in an under like we, he gets comp to Josh Allen, which I think is fair in terms of upside. But if we remember 2018, Josh Allen was ugly. I mean, ugly, it was rough 2019 josh allen was slightly better, but still not very good

Uh, and so like those were some rough times obviously the ceiling hit they you know Added every single piece around him added a great offensive coordinator and it is magical now But I mean i'm thinking we're gonna see ugly before we see pretty here so six and a half seems like Like I would have put it at five and a half to be honest Like I thought that that that seems a little bit closer if the upside hits in year one i mean the colts are going to be like a perennial super bowl contender like just like forever uh if the upside hits but i again i don't i really don't think that's going to happen in year one

and again as a noted you know richardson stan 13 starts at florida you know that's just not a lot so i think i've always pushed back on the project piece. I think he's more raw. I think he just hasn't had a lot of reps in the experience. But yeah, I mean, I don't expect year one to be anything that's resembling Josh Allen in the current iteration. I think that's definitely a flawed way to look at things.

I wanna, I don't know if you watched like a decent amount of Anthony Richardson. It's like every time that I watched him during last year, I felt like there were some awesome plays like athletically, but just like on a consistency basis, he was just like all over the place. And you know, like there was early on in the season where there was like, Oh, this guy's going to go number one for sure. He's a Heisman candidate. Cause they were, they were killing it. And now then like midway through the season, you're like, dude, this guy sucks. Like he is horrible. And so it's like, you just couldn't get that level of consistency so i'm really interested to see

my take is that he's just not very good right now uh and that he needs time but you know obviously a lot of people disagree with me on that and he went you know fourth overall so we'll see yeah well while we're here and clark i'll get it to you they asked him to hit home runs when you look at like uh you know and i have an article up on the site you know previewing a little bit of anthony richardson i compared heat maps to bryce young and anthony richardson where like the middle band of the field five to ten yards where some of these layup throws are for some of these guys like it's bright blue for anthony richardson they avoid like i don't know that they avoided it but they just they asked to him to push the ball deep down the field and along the boundary. And yeah, when you want to cite a 55% completion percentage, that's totally realistic. That's what happens. But when you look

at how he, what he was asked to do, it's not really something that I think he's going to be asked to do exclusively at the NFL level, even in year one. So I do think that that's, there's some noise in that you want to look at more of how he how he was asked to play so again a lot of drops on those highlight reels as well when you're looking at that florida uh receiver group so uh again i'm gonna pause hesitation on anthony richardson year one uh but i'm excited to watch the the growth there and what happens but clark uh what do you got well i i wasn't planning on getting into anthony richardson stuff today but uh know, the hype on him is, is in my opinion, unjustified. Like you were saying, he has these highlight reel plays that get people super excited.

He even has plays where like, you know, it's not just physical ability. Like he processes, he sees the way the defensive moves and he reacts and hits the guy like his, his processing highlights are also really good. The problem is his low lights are far too common and far too bad. And, and so what I see in his film is if the defense doesn't react the way that he's anticipating, or he might have like one or two contingencies in his head, if it doesn't go that way, he looks completely lost.

And the thing about the NFL is you're as a quarterback, you're not defined by your highlights. You're defined by how many low lights you avoid. It's so much more valuable to avoid negative plays than it is to create positive plays and not being able to throw to the middle of the field, not being able to read defenses consistently and react on the fly. I just don't see him succeeding the NFL level. Now he's young. He's inexperienced.

There's a lot of time for him to develop. I get all that. I just think, you know, you swing for the home run. And if's young, he's inexperienced. There's a lot of time for him to develop. I get all that. I just think, you know, you swing for the home run and if it's a bad swing, then, you know, you strike out. I want to, I want to throw a spectrum here, just like a, like a rookie year spectrum of like what I expect from Anthony Richardson. I think like we're looking at like a rookie year, Josh Allen to upside case being like Justinin fields this year uh like i agree with that uh and so like just for this year so like you know not necessarily a great passer maybe because it's weapons maybe because of processing but like a very talented runner that can actually that can

score like to the point where like he can put the team on his back in some sense and like make some games interesting but that maybe the passing doesn't come together in year one so that's kind of like the range that I have in my mind for him, at least for year one. And I think we can go from there. We'll see. I mean, maybe it changes mid season. I don't know. Maybe, maybe he proves otherwise, but yeah,

I think to your guys' point, like he was a far, far worse passer than Justin Fields was at, you know, given, but obviously there's a lot of other variables of who he was throwing to the offense, you know, all that. So there were a lot of other variables, but he was throwing to the offense you know all that so there are a lot of other variables but still like statistically and watching wise he was significantly worse than justin fields was a passer in college gonna play itself out sounds like right away i agree with it to take the lumps get the kid on the field he's not gonna learn a ton watching gardner

on the sideline um so get him out there get him the reps. That I think is what Clark's talking about is when you watch it, it's just, there's an experience there. And if we need him to be a better processor, he's got to get out there in NFL speed and get the shot to do it. Otherwise you're definitely wasting your time keeping them on the sideline. So I had imagined he starts, I don't know from day one, but I would set probably, you know, if he's healthy, 14 and a half, 15 and a half is the number of starts. Like I think he plays. So I think it'd be silly not to. All right.

We've all done two. We all have one more. Clark, over to you for your last one. Dalton, I'll book your Richardson MVP, whatever press you want. Okay. My last one is Bengals. I'm not as confident in this one as the other two,

but this is more of a numbers play and just playing the range of outcomes and probabilities. You can get under 11.5. I got minus 115 the other day. Let me see if it's still up. Their schedule is, okay, so you can get minus 120 on under 11.5 wins. Their schedule is really, really tough. Their division, we've talked about it.

The Ravens, they've got Lamar now. They've got receivers. They've got an offense coordinator who's going to be willing to pass the ball more. Their defense is really solid. The Browns have a ton of talent all over that roster. If they can just put something together, even last year, they split with the Bengals one-on-one. The Ravens split with the Bengals one-on-one. The loss was without Lamar Jackson. The Steelers are on the rise. They had a great draft. I like Kenny Pickett. They've got good weapons.

They've got good defense. You know, TJ Watt will come back. He's still 28, 29. So he's still in his prime. This is a really tough division. On top of that, they got to face the Chiefs. They got to face the Bills, the 49ers, the Jaguars. That might be the toughest, you know, out of schedule or out of division schedule of

anybody, you know, and then Minnesota and Seattle are also a little bit feisty. So things have to go really, really well for them to go 12 and five or better. And I think, you know, this is an anti-fragility bet. This is saying the odds are higher that things don't go perfectly for them, then they go perfectly for them. And if they don't go perfectly against that schedule, there's no way they get to 12 wins. You know, Joe Burrow misses a couple games, a couple key players on defense miss a couple games. They lost two full-time starters in the secondary

this off season, and they're trying to, you know, accommodate Joe Burrow's increasingly large, you know, cap hit as he, you know, gets paid higher and higher. I think the Bengals are an overachieving team that is more likely to regress than to press forward into the tier of team that say the Chiefs is. Because I don't think Burrow is the type of quarterback that Mahomes and Josh Allen are and Justin Herbert even who can just create no matter what. I think he's a little bit dependent on circumstances still. He's the best of all the quarterbacks who are dependent on circumstances

but I think there's too much that can go wrong and at 11 and a half wins I think there's a good chance they they fall short there's also one tiny edge which is week 17 is kind of a crap shoot because sometimes teams have nothing to play for and at 11 wins there's a chance there's nothing to play for this doesn't apply to say the Chargers bet And at 11 wins, there's a chance there's nothing to play for. This doesn't apply to, say, the Chargers bet, because at nine wins, they almost certainly have something to play for. So you want to kind of think about that. It's not a big, it shouldn't be a big factor in your decision making,

but it can create a small edge when you get there. The 4-4-4 discord rolling over with more Joe Burrow slander from Clark. You did actually, you did actually you know you kind of backed it up a little bit nicely he's the he's the best of the next group essentially right the best of the uh not off the cuff guys so um in terms of strength of schedule looking at you know projected win total is their 15th the middle of the pack um i do agree with their unique three being pretty tough but again some of the teams that weren't referenced when you were rattling off their opponents, they play the Texans, the Colts, they play the Titans. They also play the NFC West. So the teams that we're talking

about fading, like the Rams, the Cardinals, they're also on the schedule there too. We talked about last year, that was Daigle's take, looking at the back end of this Bengals schedule and talking about all the difficult road. And here we are. They went 12-4 again because, again, they had that one game they didn't play, obviously. But I just think that this is a team where – and Dan in the chat mentions T. Higgins rumors. That would have happened already. I don't think that that's happening whatsoever.

Taylor Britt, I think they had a really nice draft this year with DJ Turner, Miles Murphy, Jordan Battle. Like those are secondary pieces to kind of fill in ahead of a defense that has lost some bodies. So I'm bullish on the Bengals. I think Joe Burrow is just kind of got that talent elevator in him. I think there were questions with Joe Mixon and some of that other stuff, but they could plug in a running back.

That's just a pass from the offense. So i don't know if it's a play for me but i definitely don't want to be on the wrong side of a bangles under even knowing that the division is improved so i agree with that point too connor what do you think about cincinnati i think it just made me more excited about like a ravens overs i think like the biggest like switch there for me was like okay well if the, if like Lamar's on the Ravens, like the Bengals are going to win like 12, 13 games, like pretty easily, I think. But then with, with the Ravens, like what they've done now, you know, whereas like, you know, they're, they're adding more talent offensively. They changed that. They got, you know,

a new offensive coordinator. Uh, you know, I don't think that that was actually necessarily that much of a detriment. I think it was more so like offensive line, not having weapons, you know, just like kind of injuries generally. Like I think when healthy now and you add in the offensive coordinator piece, like I think it's super exciting and that this team will very much compete to win the division. I think, I don't know, Clark, did you play that or you were talking about playing it?

That interests me is like Ravens to win the division or maybe even over, let's say there's an eight and a half at MGM still somehow that's like juiced up nine and a half and other places. I think that they're like a double digit win team here pretty easily because just all the pieces, like offensively, like I expect them to be an elite offensive team this year. Yeah, I agree. The Ravens on the division is interesting at plus 300. I think that's the price you can get right now. I think either or, like the Ravens and Bengals should be closer together. Last year before the season, for reference, you know, the Bengals were at nine and a half wins. I think the Ravens were too.

Maybe the Ravens were at 10. And so now they've completely shifted, like massively. And I'm not sure that we saw anything to think that the Bengals are levels higher than the Ravens last year when you account for injuries and things like that? I think the Ravens are interesting. They were eight and a half, you know, while the Lamar news was kind of, you know, percolating. And so it wasn't surprising. I even, you know, wrote about that, but I thought that this would move to nine and a half pretty quickly after Lamar was resigned. The sneaky thing here is the Ravens defense is not very good. Secondary is not very good. It's Marlon Humphrey and a bunch of dudes. They don't have great edge rushers, which is not

something that we usually say with the Ravens. I think that they're a bottom 10 defense. And I think the Bengals are a top 10 defense, even with the bodies that they lost. And I think, again, we can get into some of the metrics being less sticky and less predictable for sure. But again, if you're going to tell me that it's just Lamar versus Burrow too, I'm also leaning Burrow, like a new coordinator kind of bringing some of those things in.

Like I like the Ravens to be competitive, but I think that their defense is also very, very, very thin. And if they, again, run into any sort of these cluster injuries, it's a problem. It's going to be, especially in the secondary in that division, which we think is getting better. It's going to be a problem for Baltimore. So that would be my only pushback on any pro Raven stuff, talking about additions offensively and all these different things. Lamar staying healthy defense isn't great. You don't like Rocky sin. I don't like Rocky sin. The three teams that have had and have not like Rocky sin. That's why he keeps moving

around. Yeah. I like Rocky sin. I think he's all right. and I've not liked Rocky sin. That's why he keeps moving around. Yeah. I like Rocky sin. I think he's all right. Yeah. I think he's fine. Like, I mean,

I don't like him. I guess that like is a lot of a strong word. I think he's like, he's a, a legitimate addition to a team that needed help there. Um, but I don't know. I guess I'm just like,

I'm really excited, but this team's offense, maybe there's better ways to play it. Uh, Dalton mentioned to make the playoffs is minus 120. Anything in the AFC, I'm just actually avoiding to make the playoffs bets. I think it was, I tweet out the win totals the other day in my mile-long tweet that you guys were making fun of. It was, I think it was like nine teams have a win total of nine and a half or higher in the AFC or something like that.

So obviously only seven teams make the playoffs. It's just going to be really competitive. Like, so I would almost rather bet to win the division or overwin total than, uh, to, to make the playoffs. Cause if you just know,

you're not getting that, like a team's probably not gonna make the playoffs winning nine games. You know what I mean? You're not going to get that little edge. Whereas the NFC, I think you're almost out device, like the opposite. Like you're,

if you want to take a team that you're not sure they win the vision, but like expect to be better than possible. Like maybe it's to make the playoffs bet instead because like, there's going to be like one or two teams that randomly sneak in, even if there's, they don't have like an awesome record. It's a good call. Yeah.

The AFC is just a, just an absolute mammoth. And that's a good transition. My last one is I think that the Eagles are the bell of the ball in the NFC. Still 10 and a half is still out there. It's a little juicy at minus one on fan duel but um again you're kind of looking at their unique three oh again they play the nfc west which we've already talked about that being a problem afc east is tough because

those are four competitive teams um and then their unique three minnesota at kansas city is tough and then at tampa bay is the last one And then you kind of look at the schedule. I mean, they're probably – you know, they're dogs on the road in Kansas City, and they host Buffalo, I think maybe. You know, obviously maybe the road game in Dallas. Like that's maybe where – that's maybe two or three times where they're dogs this season. Again, like the rich get richer. They had a fantastic draft i

know that they've lost a lot on the defensive side they did a great job i think replacing it i think they did a good job last year drafting ahead like jordan davis played like six percent of the snaps last year he barely played he's going to plug in they're going to ask a lot of him you add jalen carter to that mix too um again they lost some edge rushers but they added there with nolan smith hassan reddick josh sweat brandon graham they're all back the secondary bradbury and slate came back they were able to add you know greedy williams they have you know keely ringo the second the safeties are a little bit dicey but they have depth there in case um something happens again the best offensive

line in football jalen hurts has continued to continued to get better, adding Swift and Penny. I think that's a better backfield than they had even last year. Again, Gainwell and Scott are still going to mix in. It's a loaded team. 10.5 wins is just not enough in a really weak NFC, considering who they're going to play a bunch. So Eagles 10.5 still. I'm willing to lay the minus 140, Connor.

What are your thoughts? I like it. I mean, they were a team that I was just like going through their off-season transactions, and I'm like, all right well we were they're expected to lose a lot in the secondary and they just didn't we were expected to like you know undergo a lot of changes just because of the cap space and everything that they were going through and they just they didn't you know it was like one of those things where i'm like looking at this like okay well they retained a lot of guys from last year now that being said last year we knew coming into the year they had

one of the easiest schedules by far we knew that they're gonna be able to pick on other teams as well. Um, I think that I made a compelling point that their defense was overrated regardless. Uh, and that, that kind of played out in the super bowl pretty well, uh, now against a little bit harder schedule, you know, like, again, I think against, you know, normal or bad opponents, they're going to still probably be dominant. Um, but like against any good opponents they played, they were not very good, uh, for the most part. So that's my only concern about laying the juice on the over. I still lean over. I still think that they're a significantly better team. And I'd also think there's another way that the, that Jalen hurts and Eagles often sticks another step forward. Uh, if he like continues to become a better

passer. Uh, and I know that's been one of Clark's biggest gripes about, uh, him in general is that he hasn't been able to like, like when things get ugly in the running game, like, can they really just pass their way out of like trouble? I think that they can, but it's just not something that is necessarily proven in full, I think at this point. Yeah. 16th in terms of strength of schedule based off of projected win totals right now. So it's harder than last year, but still middle of the pack. Clark, where are you at on Philly? Yeah, they're another team where the defensive metrics were overrated last year by virtue of playing bad quarterbacks

and bad teams. They also were playing in so many advantage situations. Like, for example, they had so many sacks. When you're constantly playing from ahead with a lead against bad quarterbacks, you're going to convert those into sacks. That wasn't necessarily a reflection of, like, really solid, consistent pressure the way it is for some teams so i do think some defensive regression is likely especially with some of the pieces they lost they did you know pick up some

new pieces to replace them um the other concern is they lost both offensive and defensive coordinators so they'll though you know they still have the same head coach so they'll they'll have some um consistency there but you know you never really know how things change when you're making that big of a change on both sides of the ball. The last piece is their offensive line. They were really bad when their offensive line got hurt two years ago. And they're a team that relies on winning the offensive line battle. Last year, the pockets that Hurts was working out of were ridiculous. The consistency of the run game was ridiculous. If one or two of those guys gets hurt, I think the entire team takes on a completely different persona. And I think that's

a pretty easy way for, you know, when you're laying minus 140, that's a pretty significant risk that you're taking on. Yeah, I don't even mind the depth at the line. I think they did a good job planning ahead. Like Daniel Tyler Steen is a kid I think is going to project to be a tackle in this league and he can play guard he played guard at alabama a little bit too he can slide in if there's basically anywhere other than center if there are injuries on the line so and again like marcus mariotta is not an exciting backup but like he makes sense right in terms like if jalen carter or you know jalen hertz goes down like mariotta slides in and runs that system probably like very similarly i don't want to disparage you know, Jalen Hurts goes down, like Mariota slides in and runs that system. Probably like very similarly.

I don't want to disparage, you know, Hurts as a passer, but like what he does well, they, they fit, uh, you know, and I think that's a smart way for teams to, you know, to build something like having Huntley in there and in Baltimore, things like that, having some sort of cohesion in terms of what the offense is going to look like. If your quarterback goes down, I think it's a good way to build a roster also now that we're past draft the draft as well we can talk about that jalen carter is probably uh an awesome addition for them and that him and jordan davis are going to be big time big time in the middle for this eagles defense that was getting you know shredded on the ground for a couple weeks before they made some additions and now at this point i think we'll look really good on the interior. Yeah. You, you make a good contrast to the Bengals on that. If Jalen

hurts gets hurt for a few games, it doesn't derail their season because their offensive structure is so good. Their play mix is so good. And, and their offensive line is so good that Marcus Mariota can succeed. If Burrow gets hurt for a few games, the Bengals are toast. Like, I don't know that they can piece it together in the same way yeah uh that that makes sense that's probably how most teams go um so that's you know that's definitely tricky we saw that I mean they had free fall a couple years ago I don't know what uh Jake Browning I'm not expecting a lot out of Jake Browning this year so looks like slated to be the Bengals backup quarterback so good stuff this is why I like having Clark on here we get some

different viewpoints and I love, I love his, his work. So you can check out all that over on four, four, continue to ramp that up as the season comes along. Good stuff. As always,

Connor, what's going on with you? What are you working on? You're just going to skip my, my Jags bet here at the end. It was a quick one. I thought you were done anyways. Sorry.

I thought we finished with me because hashtag our Jags, baby. Yeah. You see what on board. We're not even talking about a win total you want to do divisions at some point but you couldn't get let someone else talk about the Jags this is great yeah I mean I was just excited about I mean everyone else in the division sucks like I don't know I mean it's like you're looking at this team I don't think

that they got necessarily like dramatically better but I think the addition of Calvin Ridley is massive I mean Trevor Lawrence looked really good at times with like guys who we all knew were very average. Like, you know, Evan Ingram, you know, the rest of the receiving core is just not, they're fine, you know, but they're nothing like to write home about. Whereas Calvin Ridley, I think can be like a legit guy in the NFL here coming back from obviously

some mental health issues, some gambling issues. I think he's going to be a massive addition for them. They had to tank Bigsby in the backfield to kind of take on some of the load in between the tackles as well to kind of like keep ETN fresh in the division. I mean, the main point is just the division sucks. Even if you took away some of the other positives about the Jags, Trevor Lawrence is still significantly better than anyone else in their division.

The receiving core, even if you just gave him a good passing game, the rest of the team sucks. I think they still win the division. There's enough there that the Jags are still leagues ahead of everyone else just with their passing game. The rest of the team sucks. I think they still win the division. Like there's enough there that like the Jags are still like leagues ahead of everyone else, just with their passing game. Even if the defense sucks, even if the offensive line is just okay, you know, like it's like all those things still go against that. So I like, I think that there are better than what I'm giving them credit for on the other things. You know, I'm just saying like worst case scenario on those, I'm very confident that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars

passing offense can be, keep them afloat to win this division looking like minus one 50 minus one 40 still points bet. But I mean, if you can get down more than $5 there, you know, like go for it, but, uh, anything else, I think minus one 50 is a great look here. I'm willing to lay it at this point. Yeah. I think it's a great bet for sure. Uh, I thought I was last, so that's why I didn't want to skip your Jags bet. Yeah. The division is so bad. Clark, what do you think about Jacksonville? Yeah, I mean, almost certainly. Assuming nothing crazy happens, there's no reason the Jags aren't going to win that division.

The gap between them and the rest of the division is bigger than any other division in the NFL, in my opinion. They're just a competent, realistic contender. And the other three teams all just drafted a quarterback because they're basically rebuilding. So, I mean, it doesn't get more simple than that.

I haven't bet it because, you know, it's a lot of juice to lay this early in the off season, but, but yeah, strictly speaking, it's probably plus Evie, you know,

depending on how much you value the time value of money. Yeah. I think it'll close probably in the two hundreds. That'd be my guess. I would guess it would close like around minus 200. Yeah. Especially if Anthony Richardson is starting, I, you know, a little bit concerned that gardner minshu's you know might be able to carry the colts you can make a case for all three of the other teams but they're all

they're all long shot cases so there's three times whatever the low probability is that one of them manages to to challenge the jags or the small percentage chance that something happens to trevor lawrence or some other significant thing like that for the jag Yeah. Because you have like some of these teams that we see make the leap that are like at six and a half win totals. And we saw the Jags do it. We saw the Bengals do it with Burrow with Lawrence, but that's kind of the common theme is like they have that guy who's already played a year, but he has that upside. Like they were already regarded as great prospects and they're coming in and like, then they make that leap. You'd like as rookies for the Colts, the, you know, the Titans potentially with Levis with uh you

know Stroud the Texans like for them to make that leap in year one seems like a stretch yeah in those circumstances for sure yep good call up you know they got the answer quarterback and as Clark points out the rest of the teams were looking for that answer and uh it's a tricky road tricky road for sure he's swinging this and uh start back at the bottom. So all right, gentlemen, Connor, now you can tell the folks, what are you, uh, what are you working on? What can people look for in the off season coming from you? Yeah, I've, I've currently angered Falcons Twitter, uh, before the show. And if you want to go check out my tweet, Arthur Smith was, uh, be berating Peter Skowronski during their pre-draft meetings saying that he was really boring him or something like that. So if you want to

continue to add fuel to the fire there, help my engagement farming, appreciate that. Otherwise writing some rookie profiles, writing some odds pieces, probably firing off some bets in our discord. Clark, what's going on with you, buddy? Yeah, just working on my off season process. I spent the last couple of months focused on things, basically everything I learned from the last two years, like where were there holes in my system? You know, what can I improve? What can I tweak? There was some significant changes that I made as a result. I think one of the things that people miss on the betting front is that, like, if your process is not constantly evolving, then you're falling behind. And so every year I try to improve my process. I'm not trying to implement a static approach every year.

I'm trying to fine tune it. So that's what I've been in the last couple of months. And now I'm backtesting some of the things that I've been trying out and it's looking really promising. So I'm really excited to get into the week to week of the NFL season this year. Love it.

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take it through the end of the, you know, end of February. So the whole NFL football season through the super bowl, four, four.com slash plans and get the betting sub. Love it. We will be back next week, continuing to talk about things going on in the off season.

So for Clark and Connor, I'm Ryan. We'll see you next time. Thanks, everyone. you