My First Million - Howard Marks: 80 years of investing wisdom in 46 minutes

Episode Date: July 15, 2026

Investing Guide: https://clickhubspot.com/epkr Episode 841: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) talk to legendary investor Howard Marks about AI and making ...decisions in the face of fear and uncertainty.  — Show Notes: (0:00) AI Hurtles Ahead (8:26) second level thinking (10:21) investing through the end of the world (14:47) raising $11B at a time of crisis (17:54) investing with fear (20:22) the key to a successful partnership (25:01) being a good father (27:37) only 1 success: to live your life your way (34:17) Having lunch with Warren Buffett (37:18) What people don't know about Buffett (39:37) cigar butt investing (41:35) recommended reading — Links: • AI Hurtles Ahead - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/ai-hurtles-ahead  • A Short History of Financial Euphoria - https://www.amazon.com/History-Financial-Euphoria-Penguin-Business/dp/0140238565  • Fooled by Randomness - https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219  — Check Out Sam's Stuff: • Hampton (joinhampton.com): My community for founders. Average member does $25m/year. Many of the guests are members. Get after it...apply: http://joinhampton.com/mfm — Check Out Shaan's Stuff: • Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com  • Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents. • Mercury - Shaan uses Mercury for banking across all of his companies. you can too: http://mercury.com/  Mercury is a fintech company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust, Members FDIC • I run all my newsletters on Beehiiv and you should too + we're giving away $10k to our favorite newsletter, check it out: beehiiv.com/mfm-challenge My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano /

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 If you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed. Howard, it's good to see you again. We had a lot of fun last time, and we were like, look, I don't know if other people were going to like that, but we loved that. And then over a million people listened to the last one. And so this morning I was reading, you wrote this blog post about how you changed your mind about AI. You had written, I don't know, a couple months back about the possibility of an AI bubble. And then as a good thinker tends to do, you got new facts. You sort of reassessed the situation.
Starting point is 00:00:44 You wrote a new post about AI. Do you want to summarize the story of how you changed your mind on AI? Well, the story is very simple. I have this son named Andrew. He's a VC. He's dealing with AI every day. His companies use AI. Some of them create AI, etc.
Starting point is 00:01:00 I had written the first memo around December 9th, as I recall, and then in early February, he said, dad, so much has happened, you have to update the memo. And so I rewrote the memo entirely. I was rereading one of your old books, and you repeat this phrase a bunch, which is like it's important to be rational, and you can't get seduced into thinking something is a good idea
Starting point is 00:01:24 because that's when smart people can make bad decisions, when you get emotional about something. But then when I was reading part two, I was reading it and I was like, Howard, you sound a little seduced. You sound a little seduced. You sound like you're into this. Are you at all approaching this in an emotional way, you think? It depends on your definition of emotional. I upgraded my opinion of AI and its potential because its ability to talk about its own strengths and weaknesses,
Starting point is 00:01:56 to use humor, to put information in the context of me, to use what it knows about me. And you know, this is really exceptional stuff. There's a quality to AI, or more than one quality, which are unprecedented, in my opinion. The first, the obvious one, is autonomy. All the other technological innovations from the railroad to computers to the internet, etc., were all tools or things to speed up and increase productivity. There's never been anything with the quality of autonomy.
Starting point is 00:02:47 The idea that you can give it a job and not tell it how to do it and it'll figure it out. is really unique. And what comes with that, of course, is this nagging concern that it may take over. So that's really important. The other thing, and this is not
Starting point is 00:03:12 quantifiable, is there's never been anything, in my opinion, so unpredictable. I don't think anybody knows the shape of the future. So I've never had that sense before. I never have never. I never thought that the Internet, for example, was beyond comprehension or beyond prediction. Do you think that AI will be able to do what you do?
Starting point is 00:03:41 And I know you talk about this in the memo. And I got to be honest, when I read it, I almost felt like, you know, you read stories about Warren Buffett, reading the Moody's manual page by page, 800 companies and trying to digest that information, well, A, I can do that in a heartbeat, right? Like, you know, a lot of the things that go into making investment decisions, they can do very well, very fast. And then also, it's advancing so fast. So, you know, whatever we thought it could do three years ago is laughable compared to what
Starting point is 00:04:13 it can do today. And as you pointed out, even three months ago. So I guess in your heart of hearts, do you think, you know, in the future, the next Howard Marks is not a human, but, but, but, maybe a human with AI or just AI? Everything I say on the subject I preface with, I'm no expert, but I think I told the story in the memo about the fact that indexation put a lot of people out of the equity business because, you know, it disclosed that they couldn't do what they claimed to do.
Starting point is 00:04:44 And most active equity investors underperformed the averages. and AI will unfrock or defrock another group of people whose talents are not as great as they purport, I used to say about computers. When I went to school and learned about computers, all they could do was read, remember, add, subtract, and compare. They could do it with a lot of data. They could do it really fast.
Starting point is 00:05:16 They could do it without making arithmetic. mistakes, they could do it without making emotional mistakes. So while the list was limited, it was still better than most people. Now, what's the list for AI? Is the list for AI unlimited or limited? That's a big part of the question right there. And I don't know the answer, and maybe you do. And then is there anything left that AI can do? And one example is, I think we've helped our clients over the years by not investing with bad people. And sometimes you talk to people, and for undefinable reasons, you just say, you know what, it doesn't feel right. As somebody said to me, the hair on your neck goes up.
Starting point is 00:06:12 And if that's true, and if AI doesn't have hair on its neck, then, there's, there. then maybe there's a role left for experienced investors with judgment. I believe so. First of all, there will always be things for which there is no history to train on. And to the extent that a certain big percentage of what AI does is knowing history and recognizing and extrapolating patterns, there will always be stuff for which there is no history. history. There are just some people who have a better understanding of the probability distribution
Starting point is 00:06:55 that defines future events. I was reading this book on Steve Cohen, and there was this part where they were describing how he was kind of like the man at a very young age. They were like, he can just feel the ticker. He just like is in tune and in flow with it. And I was like, ah, that's beautiful, but like, I can't replicate that. And I was always curious about that because I think in one of your books, I think you said something like, I can make someone better, but I don't think I can make them great. Can you talk to that about like what it is that makes someone who is a good investor good, but also how the average person could get better? Or do you believe that's not even possible, that you just have it or you don't? Well, in my first book, the most important thing,
Starting point is 00:07:41 Columbia, which published the book, we were talking about the book, they said, well, write us a sample chapter. So I sat down and I wrote a chapter that I had never even thought about. And it turned out to be the first chapter in the book and it says, on this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors alive. Well, lucky for you, the team at HubSpot, they have pulled out the principles that matter most and turned it into a very simple, easy to read, wealth guide. It's 35 principles from the top investors. We're talking guys who have been on the pod like Howard Marks, Manure, Niche Pabri, Morgan Housel, Kathy Wood, and a ton of others. So these are all their frameworks, their mental models, their rules,
Starting point is 00:08:23 basically how to play the long game and how to avoid ruin. You can get it in the link below. The most important thing is second level thinking. Second level thinking basically says, if you don't see anything different from everybody else, you can't possibly be superior. So to be superior, you have to at some point see something different from other people. what's called a variant perception.
Starting point is 00:08:49 You have to either think that the consensus of investors overstates the quality of the company, the growth rate of the company, the earning power of the company, or maybe the multiple it deserves. And you have to have this variant perception and you have to bet on your perception and you have to be right.
Starting point is 00:09:08 So that's second level thinking. I say in the book and when people ask me, I say, can you teach me to be a second level thinker? And the answer is no. I say in the book, I don't know, but I think it's more no than yes. Because what I say is, I can teach you the importance of being a second-level thinker, like I just have in this chapter. But I can't tell you how to have perceptions that are at odds with the consensus of investors and correct.
Starting point is 00:09:41 You know, in basketball, there's saying you can't coach height. and I think there's something called insight and I think some people have it and I don't know if AI can have it because when you know, when you talk about artificial general intelligence and AGI is when a computer or AI can do everything that a human can do.
Starting point is 00:10:08 Can it do that? Don't know. And that when I talk about the the mysteries of AI, that's a big one of them. Are there things it can't, won't be able to do, even when it reaches full flower? Can you think back to some of the biggest calls that you've had? How strong did that feel? Did you still have doubt, or was it 100% conviction? I'm curious to hear what it feels like. Great. I think in our last episode, we talked about the day Lehman went under, you know, September 15th, maybe of 08. And we had to be.
Starting point is 00:10:43 thought that there was going to be a mess. And we had raised, in the distressed debt world, the biggest fund in history prior to 07 was our 2002 fund, which was $2.5 billion. And in 07-8, we raised $11 billion for a distressed debt fund because we thought that there was a lot of distress coming. And we had it on the shelf. It was for deployment when the stuff hit the fan. And Lehman goes under, which I think qualifies as saying the stuff has hit the fan. But people are talking about the end of the world. And all the financial institutions are going to melt down. And everything having to do with money is going to atomize. So we were faced with the question, do you invest the money? And there's no pattern recognition.
Starting point is 00:11:38 for the end of the world. And there's no, you know, in the pandemic, a Harvard epidemiologist said, when we make decisions, we have data, analogies to past experience and supposition. Well, at the time of the Lehman bankruptcy, we had no data and no prior experience. We only had supposition.
Starting point is 00:12:07 So this is an interesting, question. Can AI have engaged in this kind of thinking? And what we said is that if the world, if the financial world melts down and we invest, doesn't matter. But if we don't invest and the financial world doesn't melt down, then we didn't do our job. So we have to do it. And we invested on that basis. And Bruce, who runs those funds, invested an average of $450 million. a week for 15 weeks, 7 billion in a quarter. On that, well, was it only on that, we also on quantitative measures, assuming the world doesn't melt down, we were getting great bargains. We were buying the debt of companies where we would break even if companies that had been bought
Starting point is 00:12:59 out by private equity guys two, three, four years earlier, if they ended up being worth a fifth or a fourth of what they had paid, we would still be okay. So that was pretty easy, quantitatively. But we were absolutely not confident. You weren't confident. No. I thought you were going to say the opposite of that. No. No. But I mean, we're the kind of people who always say I could be wrong or it could work in a way that's never been seen before. And so, We always, I wrote a memo three or four years ago called Taking the Temperature about the five major calls, macro calls that I made in the last, well, in the last 26 years. And they're all with some doubt.
Starting point is 00:13:58 When the markets are crashing, why are they crashing? They're crashing because the news is terrible. I read the same newspapers. I watch the same shows on TV. I'm attached to the same news feeds. I see the terrible news. It looks terrible to me. I overcome it in some way and conclude,
Starting point is 00:14:21 no, I should invest. But I'm not immune to what everybody else is reading. If you do these things without any trepidation, you know, maybe there's something wrong with you. But, you know, people who look at the world probabilistically and admit to ignorance and uncertainty can't act without trepidation. Hey, can you tell me about raising $11 billion?
Starting point is 00:14:54 Because you said that, like, very casually. So we raised an $11 billion fund, and that's like if I just said, hey, I just turned water into wine. I think for most people, I'm just actually curious, how does that happen? Is that you go to people and you say, hey, we think the world's, you make a really persuasive case. Are you using a pitch deck? Is this just prior relationships?
Starting point is 00:15:14 Are you selling upside? Are you selling safety against downside and fear? Like what actually goes in to raising $11 billion like that? So there's a list of things. Number one, certainly prior experience. Relationships. People have, you know, we started this business. in 1988.
Starting point is 00:15:33 And so we're talking about 20 years later. And in the 20 years, we managed a lot of money and had very good results for a lot of people, and so you can work on that reservoir of goodwill. Number two, this strategy is particularly well-suited for crisis. And we had managed money through a few crises,
Starting point is 00:16:00 901 and 0102, and done exceptionally well. So we were able to convince people that, number one, so many of your investments are set up for prosperity. This is a good way to hedge it by making an investment that will do particularly well if the stuff hits the fare. But we were also able to call attention to flaws in the environment.
Starting point is 00:16:27 The things that gave rise to the global financial crisis, we could talk about and we could point out. And, you know, the fact that the market was not acting as a disciplinarian, which is its main job. The main job is to, is to, you know, people come in and say, I want money for this, this, this, and this. And the market's job is to say, no, that doesn't make any sense. That's a stupid idea. We're not going to invest in that. That's the job. And sometimes the market doesn't do that job. And when the market doesn't do that job, then dumb ideas get tenassed. And when they turn out to be dumb, people lose money.
Starting point is 00:17:04 So I think we were able to convince people that some dumb things were happening. And then, of course, there's great respect for Bruce Karsh for the investing he's done of over the years. I think those are the main reasons why we were able to do it. And by the way, you hit the nail on the head. We did it in advance of the crisis.
Starting point is 00:17:25 The best time to invest is in a crisis. You can't raise money during the crisis because the news is so terrible. So, you know, my wife and I have a favorite movie we watched called Spy Game with Robert Redford. And he says in the redford says, when did Noah build the arc before the flood? You got to build the arc before the flood. You have to have some sense that there may be a flood. But one other point. In the prior 20 years, there had been these occasions when we thought there was going to be a great investment opportunity.
Starting point is 00:18:08 And we were generally right because we took the temperature of the market accurately, and we raised a large fund and we invested in it and we made a lot of money. But then our next fund was smaller because we thought the opportunities weren't as good. Now, most people in the investment business, if they have a fund that does great, the next fund is binger, because they can sell on the back of those results. But we make it smaller because we think those results mean that things have appreciated and are not so attractive. And I think that having done that for 20 years, I think we gained a lot of credibility. And people tend, I think people tend to say when Howard and Bruce say there's a great opportunity, they're not just trying. to raise money, they really believe it. And they tend to be right.
Starting point is 00:18:59 And sometimes you have to speak against your own interest, and admit your limitations, and admit your uncertainties. So in 1998, we had the meltdown of long-term capital management, we had a Russian ruble crisis, we had a panic in Southeast Asia. And especially with long-term going under, one of the skilled portfolio managers, young portfolio managers at Oak Tree, came to me. He says, I think this is it.
Starting point is 00:19:31 I think we're melting down. It's all over. And I said, well, tell me your concerns. And he laid out his concerns. And I said, okay, I understand it. Now go back to your desk and do your job. You know, a battle hero is not somebody who's unafraid. It's somebody who's afraid, but does it anyway.
Starting point is 00:19:56 If you're running into a hail of bullets and you're not afraid, there's something wrong with you. But you do it anyway, because it's what you have to do. And I don't want to elevate. I'm not saying we're analogous to a combat hero, but you have to do it despite your trepidation. And by the way, if you wait until you have nothing to be afraid about, probably the opportunity has passed. That's a great point. You mentioned Bruce, and I wanted to ask you about this, because it seems like you guys have had a very long-term partnership. What, 30-plus years? I think people don't talk about that enough, the value of compounding in a relationship and how to be a good partner for the
Starting point is 00:20:40 long-term. You know, a bad partnership can ruin you. But we don't really talk about what it takes to make a great partnership at the same time. If you were going to teach me and Sam, if we said, hey, being saying, I want to do this podcast for 30 years. Or, you know, I have a business partner, Ben. I want to be in business with him for 30 years. What do we got to get right to do that? Well, it's a great question, John. It's very important.
Starting point is 00:21:01 Bruce and I have been partners for 39 years this month. And it's one of the greatest things in our lives. After, I think we would both say that after family and maybe some good friendships, it's really the best thing we've had. We've worked together closely for all. that period, we've obviously produced a lot of success, had a lot of fun, have never had a fight. We have intellectual disagreements, but we've never had a fight, probably because neither of us is really a financial maximizer, and a lot of fights are probably about money.
Starting point is 00:21:41 The bedrock of our relationship is mutual respect, and I think it would be very hard to have a successful long-term relationship with the partner if he didn't have respect for each other. And that ties into something I wrote in 2002, I think, but in 2002, I wrote a memo called the most important thing. And there was a section in there which talked about having a successful partnership. And I said, the key to a successful partnership is shared values and complementary skills. If you don't share. share values, I don't think you can have a successful partnership. Let's say one person is super aggressive and the other is a chicken.
Starting point is 00:22:28 One person is super ethical and the other one likes to cut corners. I don't think you can have a successful relationship, partnership. And I've seen many, many, you know, I mean, a friend of mine when I was a kid, AT&T went public. Can you imagine the days before 18 and T was public? But anyway, they went public. It was the biggest deal in history, and they had a full-page tombstone ad in the newspaper,
Starting point is 00:22:54 and it listed all the investment firms that were the investment bankers. And there were probably 40. And a friend of mine, Ed Ramsdale, used to carry that ad around, and every time one went out of business, he would mark it off. And eventually, I think they almost all disappeared,
Starting point is 00:23:12 except for Goldman Sachs. But why do they go under? you have some cowboys and some chickens. And, you know, in bad times, the chickens say the cowboys are getting us killed, and in good times, the cowboys say the chickens are holding us back, and they disparage each other. So you have to share values, in my opinion.
Starting point is 00:23:38 The other thing is, you have to have complementary skills. So the beauty of a partnership is when, your partner can do things you can't. That means that you are both additive to each other, synergistic. If I can do everything you can do, or if I think that, what do I need you for? It's not going to last very long, because eventually I'm going to say you're overpaid. I don't need you. And the beauty of my relationship with Bruce is that we both recognize that there are things that the other is good at, that we're not, and that the other wants to, is willing to, is willing to, to do that we don't want to do.
Starting point is 00:24:18 For example, from the very beginning, Bruce approached me in 87 with the idea of a distressed debt fund. You know, I went into the high-year bond business in 78, and he had a background in law and got into some distressed investments, which went well, and he said, came to me, he said, we should do a stress debt fund. And it was quite a novel idea. But from the beginning, you know, I go on the road and talk to
Starting point is 00:24:46 people. And Bruce stays back and manages the money. I go on podcasts with people like you. And Bruce doesn't. But the third element is you've got to be appreciative. And you have to thank your lucky stars that you have a partner who will do the stuff you don't want to do. Can you do the same towards parenting? Because both on this episode and last one, you've referenced your son a bunch. Do you have any insights into how you've been able to raise a kid that you not just love, but you enjoy being around? Well, you know, I think it was Forbes, 30 or 40 years ago, had an article about so-and-so who was the only shrink with an office on Wall Street. And they asked this guy about his patience problems, and he said that his patient's problems, and they were all men,
Starting point is 00:25:39 of course, because it was Wall Street a long time ago. His patience problems were inversely proportional to the support they got from their fathers. We had people over for dinner last night, and one of the guys, and we were talking about so-and-so, who was a character of some kind, and one of the guys said, well, you know what?
Starting point is 00:25:58 His father treated him like hell. I just never wanted to be that father. And it's amazing how many men, and especially successful men, have to assert their superiority over their sons, maybe daughters too, but I think it's more with sons. And I guess it's Freudian or something else. But it's, what a terrible thing. If you had this kid and you have to prove you're smarter. And so, you know, I mean, I always let Andrew be smarter than me in some things.
Starting point is 00:26:37 And of course, I always gave him full support in the things he wanted to do. If your kids want to do something and A, it's not going to be injurious. And yeah, maybe there's no B. Let them do it. Like when my daughter was getting out of lower school and had to choose an upper school, she applied to the two good schools in L.A. got in and we let her choose. My wife and I had a sense for which one we wondered or go to, but we concluded that, like I always say, we could be wrong. Our choice could be the wrong choice. And anyway, of the two choices, while one might be better than the other, neither was a bad choice. So if that's true, let the kid make the choice. And they get experience with making choices. And maybe they get experience with making
Starting point is 00:27:35 incorrect choices, which is very important. Hey, let's take a quick break. You know that feeling when strategy is done, the brief is written, everyone's aligned, and you realize someone still has to sit down and actually create all the content? That someone is usually you, and it's due tomorrow. Well, the Breeze assistant from HubSpot can help. It works right inside HubSpot. You can draft campaign copy, blog posts, emails, all in your brand voice,
Starting point is 00:27:57 all using your actual customer data. So you don't create just content. You create content that converts. Check out HubSpot.com, the agentic customer platform for growing businesses. On the subject of choice, I'm interested to know, you know, when you were younger, you, let's say you're 21 years old and you're trying to figure out what you want to do with your life. Probably one of the more important questions you should figure out at some point is what do
Starting point is 00:28:23 I want to actually do every day for eight hours a day, that half my waking hours. And I doubt that, you know, a lot of 19-year-olds wake up and say, I want to work with distressed debt and bonds. That's not a knowable answer at that stage. What do you think is the right approach to figuring out your thing? First, I want to say of Franchen that the thing you describe I did a terrible job of, I was unconscious. The decisions I made in my first 20 years, as they say in religion, I did not apply intention. I just, I let other people make the decision.
Starting point is 00:29:05 I made decisions haphazardly. I didn't think about it a lot. I'm embarrassed at how terrible my decision-making process was, in fact, it's a misnomer to apply that term. But having said that, I think it's desirable to make your choices with intention, well-reasoned, et cetera. And what I tell kids is my favorite quote. is from a writer named Christopher Morley,
Starting point is 00:29:34 who said there is only one success to live your life your own way. I think it's a beautiful quote. You know, I go to Wharton and Harvard and all these places in Columbia, and I say, and, you know, the fact that you're in this room probably means that you can live your life your own way.
Starting point is 00:29:56 You probably have what it takes to live your life your own way, intellectually and work ethic and so forth. But you have to figure out what it is. That's the hard part. Who are you? And what I say to them is, try to find something that will play to your strengths,
Starting point is 00:30:15 avoid your weaknesses, and make you happy. What that means is, well, that sounds obvious. Well, who the hell wouldn't follow that instruction? Well, the answer is, what it means is you can't let your friends decide what you should, do. You can't do things because your friends are doing them. You can't let society decide what you should do. You can't let your parents decide what you should do. You have to think
Starting point is 00:30:42 it out for yourself. Having said that, it's very difficult because it's hard to know yourself. And we know that in 20 years you'll be a different person. How can you make a decision today on what will make that person happy, very difficult. But you've got to try. That's my advice, which I didn't take when I was a kid, and I was derelict, but I got lucky. While you eventually did become, as you described, living well-intentioned, something must have changed. Do you remember, did you do any exercises to become that way?
Starting point is 00:31:18 Not that I recall. I think part of it, you know, and I said for the next 25 years, I didn't do it. that took me up to roughly 95, which is when I left with Bruce to start Oak Tree. That was really... That's so, age of wait, so you think that up until the age of 50 or 49, you were floating or living according to other people? Well, not just that, but just not making good decisions, conscious decisions. You know, why did I go to Citibank Investment Research Department when I got out of
Starting point is 00:31:54 University of Chicago in 1969, because I had a good summer there the year before. Why did I move from the Equity Research Department to the Bond Department? Because my work in equity research was unsuccessful, and I was told to get out. Why did I move to California in 1980? Sunshine, Palm Trees. I just can't claim that I was making good decisions. I got sent to the bond department, a Citibank in 1978, and three months later, the head of the bond department calls me up
Starting point is 00:32:33 since I didn't have that much to do. I was fairly idle. And he says, there's a guy named Milken or something in California, and he deals in something called high-yield bonds. Do you think you can figure out what that means? That was just luck. You know, if you read Matham Gladwell and Outliers, it was just luck, right time, right place.
Starting point is 00:32:56 And if that call came at lunchtime, and I had been out at lunch, maybe somebody else would get the call. And they'd be me. Your humility is very striking to me. We have a lot of people on this podcast that, I think, you know, claim to be humble or try to be humble. You really are extremely humble person.
Starting point is 00:33:17 I mean, one note I wrote down is, from now on, at the top of all my investor memos, I'm just going to start it with, I could be wrong, but, because I think whenever I make an investment, I'm so boastful about my excitement and my exuberance and why this is right and why is the right move to do. And I think, you know, you've kind of infected me with a little bit of your humility there. Well, you make the investment because you believe in it. But it's important to see the other side and know what you're doing. By the way, Churchill said he's a humble man, and he has a lot to be humble about. But Mark Twain says, it ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for certain that just ain't true. And I always tell people in line with what you just said, John.
Starting point is 00:34:04 No sentence that starts with, I could be wrong, but, or I don't know, but, ever got anybody into trouble. The sentences that get people into trouble are, I'm 100% convinced that. And if you really feel that you're 100% right and you bet like you're 100% right, and it turns out it was only 80, 20, and the 20 comes up, that's how you get into big trouble. So I think the thing that Mark Twain said was incredibly important. Yeah, last memo Sean sent me about some deal you had was, bet everything you have, this is it. Mortgage the house.
Starting point is 00:34:48 Hey, can I ask you about Buffett? You know, Buffett famously has said, you know, he reads your memos. I assume you guys have interacted. Do you guys hang out? What's he like? Give me some Warren Buffett stories from your life, your experience. Well, Bruce actually was always a Buffett watcher. And if you go back to the 80s, no, I don't think anybody had heard of Buffett
Starting point is 00:35:12 Maybe not the 90s. I don't remember exactly. In the late 90s, people said, well, Buffett's lost it because he's not in tech. And then, of course, tech blew up. And then they said, maybe Bluffet knows what he's doing. But anyway, when Enron melted down, Enron did most of its misbehavior through off-balance sheet entities. And there was a lot of opportunity there. And so we became the largest holder of the debt of one of them.
Starting point is 00:35:47 It was called Asprey. And Warren was the second largest holder. And I don't remember how it came to pass. But he gave us his proxy, and he let us run that position for him. And Bruce did a masterful job of restructuring that company. And we came out with the people to win. So this was around 02. So around all three or four, Warren writes Bruce a letter.
Starting point is 00:36:16 And he says, you know, a nice job on Osprey. And if you ever find yourself in Omaha, let me know. We'll have lunch. So Bruce and I write him a letter. Bruce writes a letter. It happens that Howard and I will be in an Omaha this week. Can we take you to lunch? And so that's how we met.
Starting point is 00:36:37 And the relationship had a lovely start, and it went on like that. We never actually did any business together after that because, you know, he was always looking for something big that he could acquire, and we don't really deal in big, acquireable things. But it was a very nice personal relationship, and I've never said this to anybody else before,
Starting point is 00:37:02 but in 2009, I wrote a memo in which I mentioned him, and I sent it to him, and I said, I want to make sure did you see this memo because it mentions you. And he says, I do see the memos and blah, blah, blah, and I have seen this. He says, and by the way, you should write a book, and if you do, I'll give you a blurb for the book. And that's why I wrote the first book, most important thing. I always thought I'd write a book when I retired, but instead, you know, when you get that kind of note from a guy like Warren Buffett, you can't let it sit. So that was the start of that. But, you know, I've been fortunate to visit him a few times, and it's a big plus. Is there any part about the Warren mystique,
Starting point is 00:37:52 the Buffett personality that you think, like, popular lore gets wrong or is inaccurate? No, I think it's mostly what you see is what you get. The one thing I'll say that I don't think people know about, they don't get wrong, they don't know about, is the depth of his love for Charlie. And Warren sent out a note, I think it was at Thanksgiving last year. And he said, you know, I'm not going to be at the Berkshire meeting and I'm not going to be writing this or that, whatever it was. And he talked about his relationship with Charlie and anybody who wants who should get a hold of that letter and see it because it's, It's, you know, we talked earlier about the importance of the partnership and how great a contributor to your life it can be.
Starting point is 00:38:43 And that's what he had with Charlie. I think he, as I recall, he talked about Charlie being the big brother and himself being a little brother. And I think we can say that about my relationship with Bruce. and for one reason or another, he's always been very kind to me about my role, you know, and generous about my role. And he's certainly as smart as I am
Starting point is 00:39:21 and as talented as I am, maybe in different ways. But there was always this feeling of respect and affection and love and the more time passes, the more we're conscious of that. He and I am, that's what Warren and Charlie had. And it was a beautiful thing to watch. And also, Warren used to love telling funny stories about Charlie, of which there were a lot. And their relationship was always suffused with humor.
Starting point is 00:39:54 Okay, so you probably have heard this on the podcast, but if you're running a company, I think that the number one attribute that will determine if you are going to succeed in business is how fast you can learn from others. Specifically, how fast you can learn from other entrepreneurs. But there's a problem with that. I have this problem, and in fact, you probably have it too. That's one of the reasons why you listen to my first million in the first place. The problem is that finding other successful entrepreneurs to learn from, it's a pain in the butt.
Starting point is 00:40:20 And so that's why, a few years ago, I started a company called Hampton. You can check it out at joinhampton.com. We have thousands of members, and they exist for this again. exact reason. So here's how it works. If you're a founder that does at least three million in revenue and you make it through our incredibly thorough vetting process, we then match you and put you in a group with nine other entrepreneurs. You meet in real life in your city once a month and it becomes your peer group that will frankly change your entire life. It's changed mine. I'm in a group as well. And so if you're a founder that does at least three million in your revenue, check out
Starting point is 00:40:50 joinhampton.com. Again, the URL is joinhampton.com. Did they make a lot of the decisions together? I mean, I've read a little bit about them, and their relationship was a little challenging for me to understand because I don't think they've ever lived in the same place. Yeah. Did they talk daily? I don't know exactly how they made their decisions, but I think Warren used Charlie as a sounding board, a logic checker. You know, I think this makes sense, that kind of thing. Of course, Charlie's great credit is that Warren Buffett used to engage in what we call cigar butt investing. I don't know if you know about this.
Starting point is 00:41:31 But cigar butt investing means you're walking down the street and you look in the gutter and you see a used cigar and you pick it up and you conclude that it has three puffs left. So you pick it up, it's a disgusting thought. You pick it up and you smoke it and you get three puffs for free. That's cigar butt investing. But, and, you know, Warren would buy, you know, really cats and dogs because they were cheap. And Charlie's great contribution was talking Warren out of cats and dogs, out of cigar butts. And his revolution was that he convinced Warren not any company at a great price, great companies
Starting point is 00:42:18 at a good price. Most people credit that as Charlie's greatest contribution. So, but, you know, synergistic, mutual respect, love, complementary skills. Interestingly, they probably had the highest combined IQ of any partnership in history, but they were different kinds of IQ. Charlie was more of a classicist and humanist and a man of letters. And Warren, of course, was an incredible computing machine. man of letters. Sean, we need to bring that back. That sounds beautiful. It was beautiful. Charlie, you know, when we would get together, he wouldn't talk about investments or money or companies, mostly. He would talk about ideas.
Starting point is 00:43:10 Well, let's wrap it with one last quick one, which is give us some homework. Give us a book that shaped the way you think or you thought brought some good ideas to the forefront. What's a book we should read as recommended by Howard Marks? So one is a short history of financial euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith. This was very influential in my thinking, and it teaches you about the mental weakness that gives rise to booms and busts. And, of course, you know, taking a objective view of cycles is a big part of what I do. So that was very influential, and I was lucky to get to meet Calbraith. And then the other book would be fooled by randomness by Nassau Nicholas Taleb. And it talks about, see, I'm a great believer that a lot in life is random.
Starting point is 00:44:11 And so this is one of the reasons, maybe it's my rationale for not being such a decisive thinker. Toleb basically says in the short run, anything can happen because of randomness. And this determines our attitude toward risk, our attitude toward portfolio construction, our attitude toward published records. You know, you see a published record. I had a great return that year. Is he a great investor? Did he get lucky that year?
Starting point is 00:44:42 Et cetera. And so I think that fooled by rather than this is really, and I've written some memos, if anybody wants to, what we used to call the classic comic version, they can read the memos rather than reading the whole book. But I think it's very valuable, and I would recommend it strongly. Well, we appreciate you, man. This is fun. I hope so. We got to do one with your son, actually. That would be a lot of fun.
Starting point is 00:45:10 Well, we did one in January of 21 called Something of Value, Because he moved to us during the pandemic, and I thought that the opportunity for three generation of Marxists to live together was of great value, and we spent most of the time arguing about value investing. And I think with the possible exception of the latest AI memo, I think that one got the most positive reception. But we'll keep working together,
Starting point is 00:45:42 and you guys don't need an excuse for another session. Thanks. Thank you for playing therapist for us. Okay. Thank you so much, Howard. That's it. That's the pod. I feel like I can rule the world.
Starting point is 00:45:56 I know I could be what I want to. I put my all in it like no days off. On a road, let's travel, never looking back. All right, let's take a quick break to talk about a podcast. Because if you're listening to this, you like podcasts. And what's better than one podcast, another podcast. And let me tell you, another podcast you should check out. It's called Success Story.
Starting point is 00:46:15 If you like hearing about different success stories and hearing Q&A sessions with successful business leaders or hearing keynote presentations or just checking out conversations about sales and business and marketing tactics, this is a great podcast for you. So check it out wherever you get your podcasts.

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