NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 2023 Win Totals O/U with Bill Barnwell

Episode Date: August 18, 2023

In a room filled with heroes - Dan Hanzus, Gregg Rosenthal, and Marc Sessler bring you the 2023 edition of ATN's NFL Team Win Totals Over/Under draft. Before the draft, the heroes get you caught up on news from around the NFL including a review of 'Untold: Johnny Football' (06:40), injuries to Marlon Humphrey (16:00) and Jameson Williams (18:20) and a trend Dan NEEDS to end (25:30). After the break, ESPN's Bill Barnwell joins the heroes to look at this year's NFL win totals and draft their favorites outcomes headed into the 2023 season (29:27).  Note: Time codes approximate. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. The Around the NFL podcast. More than just a camp body. From the Chris Wesleying podcast studio, it's Around the NFL. I am Dan Hansis. Heroes here. Mark Sessler, Greg Rosenthal. Ahuga. Another big week of shows.

This is our counting the hard knocks pod. fourth show of the week. So if you, I guess what I'm trying to say, Greg is if you want to be like you want the pulse of our league around the league's got you.

So again, I don't know. Football is back. I not only appreciate the quantity of the shows, but the quality. To back up the fantasy football extravaganza, the 39th annual. So many.

Which was a banger with now what is becoming, one of our great new traditions over-under predictions with such a big-name guest like Bill Barnwell. I mean, back-to-back. It's a train heading downhill, and I don't mean that in a negative way. It's picking up speed just by sheer gravity. And I would just point to the listeners and say, oh, it's too much content for me. I have a busy week.

Like, no, no, no. Up your nose or the rubber hose. You have a responsibility in this, too. No, I don't think so. I think you are. There's no foul language in there. But there's a YouTube program involved. I don't know.

It's kind of a 1960s term. Have you checked out the far reaches of YouTube? I don't think you crossed any boundaries there. Good stuff. Yes, over, unders with Bill Barnwell. How about that? And he was back yesterday, boys, but we were so busy with the extravaganza

that we didn't get a chance to check in with Eric Roberts, our newish producer who has done very, very good work since taking over for the Hall of Famer, Justin Graver. Eric ran into a little trouble over the weekend that put him on short-term boomerang IR. Eric, do you want to tell the audience?

And how are you, first of all? I'm doing good, guys. This is gnarly. I just want to give everyone a heads up and the YouTube audience a heads up on this. This is gnarly. Eric Roberts sustained an injury in the kitchen on Sunday. People are wondering how many drinks he had in his system when he was sustained this injury. But now I'll throw it to you, Eric.

What happens? you, but yeah, so I was meal prepping for the week coming ahead, so it got home prepping, yeah, you know, Sunday night. I like to cook the sundae, cook the vegetables for the week, you know, that we don't have to do it in the morning. Got a nice new slicer. Oh my God, that's the slicer.

Yeah, that's the slicer. What's it called? I think it's called a Madeline slicer. It's basically a handheld guillotine, it looks like. And yeah, I mean, I got it for a wedding gift. You guys know I'm recently married. First time I'd ever used it, I'm like, hey, babe, let's use this. It's in the box, to get out of the box. I used it for 10 seconds, and I took a hearty chunk of my thumb out with it.

And when you say hearty chunk, I mean, he's not kidding. It includes some of the nail. There's some graphic pictures. We're not putting those up. No, you can't put that on you. Do we have any blurred out photos? I might, maybe I'll give it a show of my advantage. We don't need to see it.

Yeah, I know. So if you have a grape and you take like a diagonal bite of a grape, the top of it off, that's basically what I lost. That's the parallel. And they say it might grow back, though, which I didn't know that thumbs grow back. That part throws me. I'm in the ER, and, you know, I have a pretty weird sense of humor. I'm calm. So I'm not going to be giving any two thumbs up anytime soon.

I made a Fonzie joke at some point. And he's like, well, you know, it will grow back. And I'm like, whoa. And he's like, what it will look like is up in the air, though. Now that is. See, that would be the most disturbing part of the conversation. Hold on. Hold on. Like, so let's say, you know, I'm glad this.

Let's say it chopped your hand off at the wrist. Does your hand grow back? according to this doctor? I don't think that's... I think it's like... That sounds absurd. It's like it with a reptile. If you cut off its head,

you know, it's over. Cut off its tail, the tail comes back. So maybe it's just an append... Part by part. You know how it goes in movies and everything. It's oh, grab the thing, put it in ice, take it, they suture up, and it's good. So my wife...

My wife... She grabbed the chunk off of the plate where the potato was supposed to go. And so she is... He's a chunk, folks. Yeah. She is standing there in the ER with me. and he's holding this bag

and she's like, what do I do with this? And the doctor says, what is that? And he's like, here is his thumb. And he's like, oh, I thought that was just a bag of ice. He's throw that away. We cannot reattach that. Hey, Doc, what do you think it is, bud? So, and they just tossed it into the,

it was a biohazard. It was a straight up, like, it was a straight foot to trash can. Did you get an opportunity to say goodbye to the top of your thumb before they tossed it in the biohazard can? I did see it through it. It loses color. pretty quick, so it's... I have one question, who gave you the slicer?

Like, who gave you that wedding gift? It's actually a very... That's a coincidence, I have some EMT buddies from, so it's actually kind of funny. Like, when I do see them next, I'm like, hey, you could have really helped me out with your wedding gift the other night. Here's the thing. I mean, what did he think was in the freaking thing?

Yeah, that's what we... She's standing there, like a lunch bag. But this doctor also thinks the body part's going to go back. Yeah, it's Quineethethro's head from seven inside there. Let's piece it together, Doc. There is a patient in your operating. your hospital room here with a part of his body missing.

His harried wife, very upset and emotional, comes in with a bag filled with ice and maybe something in it. Let's piece it together. I'm asking for a different doctor at that point. Yeah. Thank you, Agatha Christie. It's great that you're back.

Yeah. And I hope, because I know you're an interesting dude, you're going down to San Diego this weekend to go into a tattoo convention and maybe even place in some type of comp. Leg model this weekend. Oh, yes. So you have to do a lot of calf exercises to get that thing in tight, right?

I don't play day often, guys. I think your legs, I mean, his legs already in shape. Well, we saw it at a Cowboys camp, and it was quite, frankly, it was stunning because the art that he has on it, the ink, is really impressive and intricate. A nice pair of calves. I clocked it. Can't deny that. Good luck.

I mean, I don't know if you get anything for winning this competition. Yeah, I'm basically being taken down to, like, pimp out my leg because I've, yeah, Don't show your upper body. It's never going to be the same. That is true. Never been a six-pack guy. Drink too much beer. No, I mean, I met the thumb.

Like, the thumb could grow into its own monster. It's a science fiction movie potentially. Well, good to have you back here. Yeah, buddy. Shout out to Randy for holding it down while it was gone. That's what Chavez does. That's why he's big phone. A big spot for me.

All right, let's hit the news. With the 22nd pick in the 2014 NFL draft, the Cleveland Brown select Johnny Menzel, quarterback, Texas A&M. this is better than the movie draft day i'm telling you i like the fact cleaver he came back up and got the young quarterback yeah untold johnny football on netflix um we've all watched it now and uh i thought boys it's definitely worth watching um if you're somebody that's followed the league for you know, in the last 10, 12 years,

especially it will be interesting to you. That we kind of, from a personal standpoint, I feel like we kind of lived it with like there are stories in NFL history and figures, memorable figures, even if he wasn't a great player by any stretch, he was a memorable figure in the league in that brief window. We've played it many times on the show when we were at Radio City. We were just drafted and Mark was emotional and we've talked about that a lot.

But then the way it all fell apart. and we were in the newsroom for all that or documenting it day by day, just seeing where his life is now and everything. It was interesting and kind of weird thinking back being at this company and covering the league that this immense figure in terms of what he meant in his era, even as a player, it was kind of a disaster on every level.

Yeah, it was a really engaging documentary for me because sometimes, like, the main figure isn't involved. But instead, Johnny Mansell, I thought, like, you know, years removed from that drama is speaking first person and his version of owning it I thought at least in not kind of trying to rewrite

the narrative but just basically saying yeah I kind of everything from a nightmare standpoint that you thought I was but I also learned a lot more about his college career and like the fact that he came into the NFL as one of the most sort of gripping fascinating sports figures

that we've ever experienced and our newsroom is different now but back when we were up in Culver City like those Sundays I mean there'd be a hundred people in there and when Johnny football never forget when he was put in against the bills before he had his first official start he came in in relief

and the newsroom was literally on fire and that was at the height of my adult Brown's fandom and I was rioting every second of it and like the one thing I noticed was that whenever he'd make a mistake in the weeks and you know seasons after

the newsroom loved it like they just like he was a focal point of ridicule. And I remember taking it so personally because I was so engaged with the idea that he could have been Texas A&M version of Johnny Mansell for the Browns and change the Browns River. And instead you're watching this car crash happen in slow motion.

And it was really a day-by-day thing because there'd be random Tuesdays where it's like they found him along the side of a road in a fight with his girlfriend or it's fill in the blank. It was just non-stop drama. It's like when he finally was off the team, there was this immense sense of like normalcy and relief.

if he had ever been drafted by a less dysfunctional organization he never would have even played I mean I know you I know they took high but he was such a mess from the beginning and we've heard this from former teammates of his that it was almost a joke when they announced that he was going to become the starter what they didn't hit on as much in the documentary ads deeply and it was short is just like I think the level of alcohol and drug abuse that he was engaging in during this whole time, especially in the NFL. I do think if he had gone to another team that he might not even gotten a shot on the field, but I think ownership there would push for that draft pick, push for him to get taken.

And it was a reminder looking at the draft process. That was one thing I took away was like, man, these guys can get fooled because, look, our lead draft analyst, you did a great job at the time, was all about that Johnny Mansell actually was a top 10 pick. and all these teams thought he nailed that pre-draft process. And he put it together for a while and answered questions for a while and impressed everyone at the Combine. And then you hear in this documentary what a complete kind of mirage that was and how close it was that his NFL career didn't even happen

because he was such a mess for much of that lead-up. And you felt for him, but it also was pretty fascinating. I could have used more. I could use more than an hour. It's funny that we talk about quarterback being eight parts and Johnny Mansell and maybe could have been, in four. This could have easily been a two-part and you really could dig in. I thought, and also thinking back to the newsroom in the early 2010s, like those Saturdays, if you were working a

Saturday shift, that's all anybody was into is Johnny football and all the drama around him. It does illuminate to me and I know a lot of people that follow the NFL and are listening to this podcast love college football. I've never been a college football guy. It's kind of a little bit of a la Raville of Magnifico that Johnny Manzel could dominate. the way he did at A&M without doing any work and just playing playground football. And then as soon as he got to the NFL and did the same thing where he wasn't opening up the iPad

with the plays, he was the worst quarterback in the league and quickly out of the league. One side of this that bothered me a little bit. And I was happy that Ryan Leif, who similarly dealt with some really rough issues with mental health and substance abuse and has cleaned up his life and he's doing well for himself. On Twitter, he kind of pointed out Marcus Spears had said how amazing it was a phenomenal

the stock was. And Ryan Leif wrote, why when sports are involved, everyone seems to put blinders on in an attempt to entertain Netflix set the conversation back. It stigmatized mental health, suicide, and substance use disorder, offered zero solutions that took advantage of someone with an untreated disease. Hashtag be the solution. I'm not saying that Netflix took advantage of Mansell, but I was a little. little uncomfortable watching it, knowing when the family is saying near the end of the duck

that they're worried about him. And this is an ongoing issue with him that we don't know if he's okay. You see him partying with his friends openly and not, I just don't know Johnny Mansell's in a good place now. And it was a little weird watching it. It's always a little easier to watch these stories when the person is out on the other side. And that's not the case with I think that's really well said. I kind of left just, you know, I mean, because the football player part of it. I mean, I let go of that as a, you know, ex-Browns fan so long ago, but like there was always something just more deeply disturbing about what was going on with Mansell and how, you know, I think the Browns did try in various ways to help him, but he was beyond help.

Teammates did. There's a bunch of anecdotes about what went on behind the scenes. But then his career is over. We move on to something else. And Johnny Mansell is still out there in the wilderness. It looks to be largely unhelp still to some degree. And I think there is a fair reason to be concerned about what the future is. Because now he's just like, he isn't that guy anymore. Like all this, like a claim and attention, like it just dissipates. No matter who you are, Tom Brady's getting ten times less attention. And Johnny Mansell is just out there on the plane.

The Browns were the worst case scenario for him to get picked by. Because where the Browns were as an organization, how much was put on his shoulders immediately and then where he was physically, mentally. It was doomed. Everyone got fired because of him too. People forget. Kyle Shanahan was his rookie year offensive coordinator.

And he bolted. He's like, I'm not doing this anymore. And I don't think it was his decision to ever play Manzell. That's sort of what I mean by another organization. I think if Shanahan was making the decisions he never would have played. I mean, I think Ryan Leaf that's really well said because Manzell never was going to be that guy. He was, he just, it really put into perspective

of how quickly everything happened and how unprepared he was for it all, because he is more of a college icon than he is an NFL story. He's a, he's one of the biggest psychons in college football history, but they didn't do him a good service in terms of the disease he had. They also didn't in terms of like

all of his domestic violence issues over the years, which has been significant, not only back then, from college to the pros to recently, and he didn't exactly take accountability there. So you could have used more in a different touch on it, but I have a feeling

there will be another one because he is such a compelling figure. I actually think it will be done again in like eight or ten years or something like that. Hopefully it's in a good place when we see that. All right. Let's get to some news. Marlon Humphrey

cornerback of the Baltimore Ravens. His week one availability is, now keep an eye on this now. We have hit the time of the summer Mark erroneously stated it's late August. It's mid-August. It was literally the middle of August when I called it late August. But

now when... That's kind of... That's the Mark. I used to have a word for it. It was something like the mark tax. Plus two? It was just like the mark. It's either plus two days, two weeks, two months. Whatever it is numerically, Mark always embellishes it by like 20%. Like it doesn't matter what kind of thing we're talking about. The mark number tax? Yeah. I think it's more disturbing that I thought it was late August. Anyway, if you have an injury now, now you're in danger of missing the start of the season. There's just not enough time to get right depending on what you're

dealing with. And Marlon Humphrey is expected to miss time, according to. to Mike Garifolo with an injury that may require a medical procedure. I don't know if there's more reporting out there because it was an undisclosed medical issue this morning is what the reporting was out there. He was a 17th. He is expected to have foot surgery. Foot surgery. So Houston Texans on the schedule week one.

Hopefully Baltimore's defense can handle that, but you never know. And Humphreys will see if he could play the guitar when it gets back. I don't want my star cornerback dealing with a foot injury as the season begins. I'd say he's their most important defensive player. They're really banged up in the secondary. Rocky Sin has missed a big chunk of camp with a knee injury, DeMarion Williams, Trayvon Mullen, who's more of a reserve guy, but these guys, none of them are practicing.

They've been out. And like, when I look at, I think we just, like, there's this perception that the Ravens just always figured out on defense, and there's a reason for that perception. but their cornerback position is really thin right now. And, I mean, you've got the Texans coming out of the gate. Don't hate that in week one. Week two right away, though, Cincinnati Bengals.

So, you know, no Marlon Humphrey is a big problem. Yeah, it says he'll be out of month, which would probably be week two. We haven't talked much about the Ravens' defense, and I don't know what to think about them because you just ran through what's going on at cornerback. On paper, that's without Humphrey, but even with Humphrey, that's one of their weakest positions and one of the thinner groups in the league. And then I think what else is the problem with the Ravens?

It's their edge rushing position. And maybe Adafioi picks it up. Maybe Ojabo, who was coming off of an injury as a rookie, becomes a guy. But they're very thin and question marks there. So questionable pass rush, questionable cornerbacks, that's a problem. Then again, I think back to the end of last year,

what defense was playing better at the end of last year than the Ravens? They should have beaten the freaking Bengals in the playoffs. I mean, they killed the Bengals in the playoffs. They dominated the Bengals offense, at least. And so I don't know which way it turns out, but there's pretty big questions there in both sides. And other injury news at wide receiver. The Detroit Lions already know they're not going to be having

James and Williams on the field for the first six games of the season, dealing with that suspension connected to his violation of the league's gambling policy. But now they're not going to happen for the rest of the preseason after he suffered a hamstring injury. So that kind of knocks him out of action for the rest of this summer or at least through the preseason schedule. He played against the Giants.

I don't know how much to make of that, but other than you just want Jameson Williams in the mix because he missed most of last year with the ACL recovery. And in other wide receiver news, you have Traylon Burks, the second year of Titans, a very important figure for them.

Rapsheet reports, an MRI revealed a sprained LCL for Burks that will keep him out a few weeks. There was a concern. Obviously, he suffered a season ending knee injury in practice yesterday. Instead, he's on the shelf for a few weeks. But again, a guy that had a little bit of an up and down, first year in the league that you want to hit the ground running.

Now he's coming back from a knee injury. These are not good things. No. And we taped the fantasy extravaganza before we knew this Jameson Williams news. But I would have disagreed with our friend, Mike F. Floreo anyways on being high on Jameson Williams. Just because he hasn't been on the field. This has been an off-season long issue with him that he'll last,

a couple of practices, even in OTAs, and then he's out for a week or two. And that's been his story. So to me, I saw our friend Matt Harmon, like, he's getting drafted in fantasy league's pretty high, but it's just like off vibes. I do not want any part of him in terms of fantasy. And as a lion supporter, and I'm sticking with these lions. I know we're not going to make them the team of ATL, but I want them to win. I'm just don't think you can really count on Jameson Williams to be like some big difference.

That's right. Let's bring it back. Yeah, I mean, I. Can't do it. Can't go back to back. The little bits that we've seen from Jameson Williams, like the huge big plays and little spot moments. Isn't there one?

It's one. No, but I know, but you know, the thing, there is, I started to really believe in him last year and thought he could be a real difference maker for this offense. But you're now at, like, at this point where, like, if something big doesn't happen at the end of this season, this first round pick is starting to look really in peril. And, you know, the Chiefs game is coming up very quickly.

And they don't have, like, you've got Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones, Um, they asked Dan Campbell about your guy, Denzel Mims, um, like, where is he at? How is he progressing? And here's what Dan Campbell said. He's in the room. Wish I could give you more. He's like, thanks a lot, Dan Campbell. Like there's, I mean, yeah, he's not going to make the team. And like, it's another like month, month plus where like Jared Gough is not working with Jameson Williams. And it's like he missed all of last off seasons. I mean, he got hurt in college too. That's right.

It's one of the reasons he fell in the draft. And as I stated during the Mansell conversation, I'm not watching college football closely. but he was a stud, I know that, at Alabama, right? Absolutely. And so there's certainly talent locked in his body, but the bust vibes are strong thus far. It's not anything to go into a panic about, but not a great start, especially when you factor in the gambling thing,

just messy, messy, messy. Speaking of bad vibes, bust the vibes, I do not like the Thursday night opener vibes. I didn't like it when the schedule came out. I like the Lions. I just don't love that spot for them against the Chiefs at Arrow, head on Thursday night. I feel like there's so many directions

we could have went with that first game. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong and it's going to be instant classic. You know what though? A little nois about it. I'll say one thing for the NFL schedule makers because they tend to go real obvious or conservative with the opening game

where it's like you kind of know who both teams are. This was kind of like feels like it was made at a weekend bender and they're like, let's just go with this. I think Rosenthal had something to do with it. Well, I mean, but it's aggressive, but there's variance here. It could be a hot, mess, or it could be delightful? Well, famously, my desk was near the scheduling department in the NFL offices the year

I was there. I like it. We don't need to start previewing week one, but I had a vision one night a few weeks ago. I'm not saying what was happening. It was just hanging out by myself at the house that night. And I felt like, I think the lions, they're going to put up a good fight. Maybe they even win that game. They're going to show up.

They're going to show up. I hope you're right. And it's going to be, like, in the 40s or something. It'll just be, like, a stupid, like, too many, like, people that like defense would be like, this is too much offense. It's like, no, let's go. Sounds like that would be my line by the end of that game. In the history of this podcast, one of my favorite ridiculous storylines ever was after the Mexico City game. It was like 53 to 50.

Who was that? 5145, I think. No, no, no. It was, I think it was double 50 burgers. Rams, Chiefs, yeah. and all the articles for the next few days. This is what football is now. Welcome to the new NFL.

It was 54 to 51. And it was like, shut up. You know what the funny thing is, though? That, you never know it when it's happening. But that literally was the peak of the Jared Gough Rams that night. It actually went downhill pretty soon thereafter. They had that bills in those Eagles game. that shut them down

and then they had the Super Bowl later like that night was it I felt you know what? Do you remember those? I do remember the article. Oh, you were into it. I wouldn't write the article because I think that's we have to dig up the ATN from after this game. I think we all were a little into it. Me and Wes I think was into it. Yeah, because I think you need like

another couple years to see that that's even the case that's too small of a sample size but I remember watching that game and everyone's freaking out. I was like this is not the football that I want to be honest. I just remember there was a number of think pieces out there and big words about where basically this is a arena

that was a time when with with like the way that football writing was going in general it was like everything a new think piece emerged weekly I feel like there's a lot less of that well and and people forget it was a crazy offensive game but there were like seven turnovers in that game and a couple defensive touchdowns

it actually kind of was a sneaky like defense made some plays in that hot take and contributed to the high school didn't like the game that much it was that is that's stupid I don't like when teams just go up and down the field back and forth. But that's what I'm saying. They didn't. There was literally

seven turnovers. The end of the game, I remember. I brought up the box score to make sure I was right. Let's check up the drive summary. But you're right. The offense is basically scored or turned the ball over. But there were seven turnovers, some defensive scores, some big time sacks. I don't want that score three out of four

games. No, you wouldn't. Give me what Bill Parcell's thought football was. Give me, well, bingo. Give me 1714. It's fine. Give me a strategy on both sides. back after this. It's like the huge like peanut butter and chocolate

piece of pie that comes out. Too rich. And you think it's too much and then you think it's been four years since I had something like this. Do you understand that Dan and I do not agree with you?

Let's try this. We do not agree with you. I know, but I'm disagree. You're not, you're simply not even listening to Dan and Mark. Opinions vary, Greg, back after this. Last thing, disgraceful. That's the only thing.

Put up this tweet. Eric, if you can, because you only have one thumb now. Look at this. Look at this. Teddy Bridgewater, number 50. Greggy. The Lions, I'm taking them on the under, whatever the under is.

Why? Because we've taken this too far. We lost control. We let the players pick whatever number they want. And now we have a goddamn quarterback that's number 50. Okay. I have games that count. I have two things on this.

You want the wet blanket thing first or the pro Teddy thing first? Aren't they? Neither? Can I get neither? All right, let's go pro Teddy. I love it that Teddy's thinking different. I mean, you say you, I don't know and everyone to be automaton's out there. Teddy's changing the game here.

He's 50. The fact that so many people got upset about this, to me, that's a good sign that Teddy's doing something special. Okay, what's the other bad take? Well, the wet blanket thing is there actually weren't any numbers available, literally. And that he's going to end up getting assigned one of the actual... quarterback numbers when some of those people get. Oh, well, then it's a charade.

It's just a charade. Well, it wasn't his choice either. There literally isn't a single number available in 1 to 20 or whatever. If it's not his choice, you can't turn around and tell us how originally is and how dangerous he is after that. In Greg's defense, he did present both sides of it. Yeah, that's what I mean. But Teddy Bridgewater, I know he's not a star and he's not at the level of QB in my opinion

that Greg sees him as, but he's a veteran. He's respected. There's got to be a camp body like third or fourth string quarter. back that like you go up to him like bro teddy's former first round pick has been a league 10 years he's taken 10 and you're going to grab 50 and deal with it or else like i don't somebody you have to send an intern over to deliver that news and and he's a humble guy he's a humble guy he doesn't no keep teddy out of it yeah that's what i mean like i'm with i'm with you i'm going to teddy and saying teddy uh bad news 10 year veteran uh been through amazing levels of diversity and come through

and you're widely beloved behind the scenes in the NFL. We don't have any numbers for you, pal. So now you're 50. It's an organizational breakdown. I get you on that front. But it's just a summertime play thing. It won't even be true come September. I think it's a bad sign for the line.

Now, I don't know if the reporting I saw on that is accurate. So I hope that when the opener shows Teddy on the sidelines, week one, it's 50. And if you thought I was annoying with the Gino Smith Renaissance. We did think that. When Teddy Bridgewater. is dropping a 40 burger on the Cowboys in the divisional round to lead them to the NFC championship.

Just wait, I'll be able to die happily. You are utterly delusional. When's the last time Teddy had a game? Let's check out the game. I mean, I think he went in there for the Dolphins for about six minutes. He kept getting hurt. He kept playing without Armstead and getting hurt.

He had some games for the Broncos, a very misunderstood season. You don't need to go through everything. Well, you very clearly understood. You're the one that does this that makes us relitigate this over and over. And you drag the two of us through it. You're on the podcast.

I know, but it's just like this is unnecessary. This is an unnecessary direction. He was like, his Denver Bronco season was misunderstood. It absolutely was. He was above average PFF grade. He was a solid starter on a terrible team. All right.

I like this week 13, 2021 against a terrible Detroit defense. He lit them up. Okay. Okay. Well, he threw for 179 yards, but it was... 38 to 10. Ah, they started that season nice. Remember, they beat the drags. He threw for over 300.

Yeah, whatever. Relax. I think we're trying to get you to relax. But to your point, his pasturating was 95 that year. I mean, okay. Yeah, but everyone's is 95. Now, this is not in 1989. It's fair.

All right, let's take a break. And then we'll get Bill Barnwell in here. What's up, everybody? Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Sticks, we take you inside the game from scouting reports and player development to team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. Every week, we study the tape, talk to decision makers, and share the insights you won't find

anywhere else. It's the kind of conversation that connects the dots, from college football prospects to the NFL stars of tomorrow. We break down the draft, analyze matchups, and evaluate how teams put it all together on game day. Plus, we dig in the coaching strategies, roster construction, and the trends that shape the league year after year. Whether you're a diehard fan or just love understanding the game on a deeper level, we give you the full picture. If you want insight that goes beyond the box score, this podcast is for you. Don't miss it.

Listen to the Move the Six podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Matt Jones. Now, I'm Drew Franklin. and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts Pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that?

Oh, my. We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Bill Barwell. I'm just going to let this play out for a bit, to be honest with you. I want to let it see.

I'm going to percolate in the vibes of this late afternoon song, I feel like. Yeah, you are. Yeah, you are. It's a Rorschach test. What does this song mean to you? Like, what does it evoke within you? Including your loins. I feel like I just got dumped.

I just got dumped, but I'm not. But I'm not mad about it. Like I feel like it was like, I'm okay. It worked out fine. It was in the mail, yeah. That's very good. I like that one. That's a new one.

Last week, last week it felt like my partner was just shot and a drug bus gone wrong and I'm driving home to my apartment on Miami Beach. This week it feels a little more carnal for me. But I like, I like where you're coming from. I think we're in similar wavelengths. Yeah. I'm a little, yeah, go ahead. Do we want to get into how much more carnal it is for you, perhaps?

Well, I would like to explore that. Kyle Brand put it well that it had a silk stockings vibe to him. Yes, very good. With some billowing curtains in the night type vibe. That's him watching something of that nature. You're saying this involves you, though, and, you know, fill in the blank other individual or individuals. I don't know. Maybe.

You're taking it down Cessler Road, and I'm just... No, I'm just asking a follow-up question. It gets a little multi-demand. I'll put it that way. Bill Barnwell. Last year, this is one of my favorite exercises of the preseason. Last year we did it with Mina. So we had to get another Hall of Famer here.

We take a look at all of the over unders according to, what do we go with, Fanduel? Fan duels over unders for season record for all 32 teams in our league. And what we do is draft style. And we'll each draft. four teams. And just quickly to go through the standings, can we flash that up? What we did, the boys here. Zusser took a dirt nap, went one and three. I had the Patriots over. I thought the Patriots had a 10 and seven locked and loaded just to mess with everybody. But it turns out

that Patricia was not the answer for their offense. Let's see. Greg went three and one. Good job by you, Gregie. Bears under, Eagles over, Chiefs over, Colts over. See, you got sucked in by the But you know what? If you look at the three I got right, you clinch that by week 15. They cleared him by three each at least. Yeah. That's a good job by you. Spending spending that money week 16.

Right, exactly. He was on vacation. Greg spends like half his year in the desert, so I'm not surprised he came out. Not allowed. I had pets over eight and a half. Cowboys under 10 bills over 10 and a half. Raiders over eight and a half. I only got bills.

Sessler, very typical mark on the fence, one, one and two. Oh. Well, not by. My, my, that's the, like, Earth created, I didn't, I didn't, like, go on the fence with my picks. Gotcha. Texans over four and a half. That's an L. Commanders under eight.

That was a push. Chargers, uh, over 10. That was a push. Yeah. Push and Niners over 10. You, you cashed it on that one. Mina did well, too. Now, some reason, it is going to be recorded forever, Bill, on go get my lunch.org.

For some reason, they only had, uh, three of our picks out of the four. But Mina won two out of three of those, so she did well, too. Do you remember what Mina's picks works? I feel like I know what my three over unders before the year were last season. If I had been doing this exercise. She went over lions, which was good, under Cardinals, which was great, and Saints over, which was bad. What were yours last year? It would have, number one, by a significant margin was Raiders on term.

I was very anti-Raiders. That worked out pretty well in the big picture. I would have been over Ravens. I think Ravens was nine and a half, maybe, maybe 10. Ravens went over, evil with Lamar, getting injured. And then I had Falcons under, and Falcons under did not hit. The Falcons exceeded mine, and I feel like many people's expectations. So credit to Arthur Smith, I would have gotten two for three last year.

All right. Well, this is a new season. And I know you have ties to the Jeban. So what I have here, Bill Barnwell is a official Giants helmet. It's heavy. Well, it's real. It is. It's for a real person.

I have each of our four names, and we're going to do the draft order here. Should the first name out, this is always crucial. Should the first name out be the first pick or the fourth pick? First thing. I think it should be the fourth because then you have more buildup. Oh, that's better show business. And you're the host. I even ask that.

Yeah, why is it our choice? Yeah. We're fine. That's her. All right. Here's the fourth, but this is going to really backfire in the old Zooser because I will pull my name out first. No, Greg. Perfect.

Sorry, Greg. I mean, sorry, Gregie. How surprising that I wiped the floor with you guys a year ago. Oh, he's hitting out, baby. He's already hitting out. I mean, they were just facts. Look at the. But remember, last time we did a draft, we did the running back draft and it did not go well for you.

We'll see. We'll see. The third overall pick. The old zooser tugboat. Up next, this will determine who has the first overall pick. It's either Bill or Mark. This is like Web and Yama. This means a lot to Mark, by the way, Bill.

Way more to Mark than it is to you. Here we go. Second pick. Mark Sessler. And as it should be, our guest, Bill Barnwell, has the first overall pick. And it is a snake draft. Okay. Okay.

Well, I think last year it wasn't. So that's a... Or maybe it shouldn't be, actually. Well, I don't want to put that in the end. No, no snake. No, that's not fair to Greg. It's not. I'm fine with it.

I'm fine with it. I'm the defending champ here and also with the picks. What do we call that? Oh, no, no. Locks of the week. So I think we need to make it. The NFL draft do it. We need to make it harder for me.

They do not. No, they don't. They don't. They don't say. So we're going to follow the NFL. Okay. I'm fine with that. I'm fine with that.

My picks are so original. It won't even matter. Oh, all right. We got to take Rosent Hill down several notches. Just a couple notches. All right, Bill, get it going. First overall pick in the over-under draft. I feel so bad about this pick already.

And it's my favorite one. I know what it's going to be. I do, too. Can I guess? Okay, please, guess. He's been burying them all off season. He's been the guy pouring. Maybe I'm wrong.

Water all over the New York Jets and their chances. Oh, I was going to say you're going to hit out at your own team and go under Giants right off the place. One of the New York teams. All right. We ball gas or run. Not under jets or giants. You're incorrect. It isn't over.

It isn't over on a team that nobody feels good about. It's an over on the Denver Broncos. Oh. Wow. As the first overall pick, people saying it's a reach. Whoa. You know what? Get your guys.

I got to wait at least three picks. The Broncos were very unlucky under that sort of surface of being terrible and having their quarterback situation go disastrously and their coaching pick went terribly. They were the most injured team in football last year, per the adjusted games lost Patrick at football outsiders. Now, I know they already lost Tim Patrick to a torn at Killies. It's not going to help. But I believe they are a much healthier team this year than they were a year ago. they were a defense that was frankly extremely good until the final month of the year when they gassed out because of the injuries because the offense was playing terribly

they were I believe fourth in EPA per play through week 13 six I believe sixth in DVOA is not getting that right somewhere in the top five by multiple metrics by points per drive they were six through week 13 afterwards one of the worst defenses in football injuries just just the fact that they were playing for nothing I think contributed to that as the December sort of doldrums came in and they add a lot this off season.

You go out and you get Sean Payton, who's going to be a guy who's going to do a better job of coaching those games. Mike McClinchie comes in. Ben Powers comes in at Guard. They bring in Zach Allen from the Cardinals who had a career year last year.

This is a team that had, they blew four fourth quarter leads last season. To me, I feel like they're going to do a better job of holding onto those leads. They were competitive in a lot more games that people remember.

and this is going to come back to bite me. I don't love it. I just think there is more left in Russell Wilson than people give them credit for. I think they are going to be a very competitive team. I think they're going to be a playoff team. Wow. If they win nine games, chances are they're going to be a playoff team. Right on the fringe.

To me, I think they can win 10 games and I think they will be a playoff team in 2020. I don't know if I stated it, but the Broncos are 8-9. a half. So Bill is banging the over on the Denver Broncos. I think it checks out. And I do think, thank you. Wilson didn't become a terrible player overnight. Now, there

people that correctly pointed out, Greg last year, that you could look at his final year in Seattle, for instance, and that maybe this was a trend and he's going downward as a player. But I like the chances of him being humbled with a better coach and a better situation, better health around him. I don't know

if I'm banging a winning record for the That's strong, though. I don't know. I'd say, to go from last year's Nathaniel Hackett disaster to Sean Payton is one of the bigger, like, coaching adjustments that I can recall since we've worked here. I think Sean Payton's always gotten. When we post-Rue Breeze, he's still got the best out of every quarterback that was under him. And I just think there's going to be a lot more organization here. The defense has been solid all along.

I think it's an interesting and daring and intriguing pick by Bill. It is kind of a, it's why you have Bill on because he thinks differently than most. And no, no, it's not. I mean, you're giving like original takes that we're not hearing elsewhere. And I think our listeners will remember over Broncos as the Bill Barnwell team. I, to me, there's just so much uncertainty everywhere that eight and a half makes sense. Like offensive lines are very hard to predict. They have like a, I don't know why it weirds me out.

They have like a first time offensive line coach is Zach Strieve. Vance Joseph takes over the defense. There's different parts of the defense, which look good. But to me, it's all very, the whole team feels extremely unpredictable. So if I, to me, over eight and a half is a bet on Sean Payton, which over the years is a great bet. But otherwise, I don't know. There we go. I just don't know.

All right. So we're off with a bang. Mark Sessler. You are up next. This will not require too much analysis. This is, I feel. That's kind of what we do here. But, yeah.

I think it sort of speaks for itself. We do have 12 picks, though. You're right. We're going to move it along. Well, that's true also. Andy Reid, since joining the Kansas City Chiefs, the Chiefs have never gone under on their win total. They've gone over every single year.

They're sitting at 11 and 5. There are 17 games in a season. I trust this team. 11 and a half, yeah. 11 and a half. I trust this team more than any team in the league to go over, and it's just like an absolute home run out of the park. I'm not even going to have to think about this again all season long.

barring an injury to Patrick Mahomes. They're going over. They're not winning 11 games or winning 12 or more. No problems at. Who do you trust more? Coach quarterback combination in the league. I think it's a good big. Sound, it's logic.

It absolutely, they check out. You know even when there are problems, they figure things out. That's the thing about having an all-time quarterback and one of the great coaches ever. Is there any red flags, Bill, to you that make this team potentially different? I don't think we're going to have to worry about a Super Bowl hangover here. It doesn't sound. Travis Kelsey is a year older, but was as productive as ever last year.

Anything that's a red flag to you here? Yeah, they were a little lucky last year. They were 14 and 3, but they had 11.4, Pythagorean win. So their point differential said they were running pretty hot, had a bunch of close victories, beat the Broncos in two close games, Tennessee in overtime, beat the Chargers by three points, beat the Broncos by 6, Texans in overtime by 6. You know, those are situations where even with Patrick Mahomes, given the history the chiefs have had, tough to count on them winning so many of the close games, maybe some concerns about the offensive line

and, you know, the new guys blooding in at tackle. And the Travis Kelsey's scenario where Travis Kelsey suddenly gets old, which I don't think is going to happen, but great players do age. It happens. Travis Kelsey just look at he's aging, but it is possible that he could be, you know, just a good tight end as opposed to a superstar type. end, major questions about receiver, but to me, I still think of a class of the AFC West. And given the track record, like, yes, I think there's a scenario where they don't win 12

games, but it certainly doesn't feel like a bet where you're risking as much. It doesn't feel like there's as much downside for the Chiefs relative to pretty much any other team in football relative to their total. Right, I'm not biting my nails on this one. Like, I think, like, we look at the Vikings and they want all those close games, you know, Sure, you're thinking that's not probably sustainable. But there's a reason that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid win these close games. Right.

I think they are. Like those Broncos and Texans game, I think there is something that it's hard to pull out from the numbers that like it's not just luck that they win close games against bad teams. It's like they shouldn't have been in those close games, but it's kind of like the Patriots record and close games over the years. I'll give you a good example. They lost to the Colts last year. It's very true. Like they had one of those games last year. where everything went wrong and they lost.

Maybe next year they have two. Maybe they even have three and they lose those games. I got them at over 10 and a half last year. They were only a 10 and a half going into the year ago. That's crazy. I'll always think to like, Mark, you're, you feeling comfortable. Of course, I'll think about the playoff run with Mahomes and playing through injury and the comeback to beat the Eagles.

But that November Sunday night game against the Chargers when the Chargers sent Mahomes back on the field down four with 146 to go. and you just knew how the game was going to end? Like, it wasn't even a question. It was like, oh, Patrick Mahomes is going to throw a touchdown pass to Travis Kelsey, and they're going to break the Charter's hearts. There's a magic to this team with Mahomes of their controls. If you want to talk your shit, talk your shit, pal.

There you go. We got that guy on our side. We got him. What's up with Travis Kelsey? I mentioned this on the Hard Knocks podcast with Colleen. Jeff Ulbrick and Travis Kelsey have the same exact, like, white boy funk. speaking pattern. It's exactly the same. I think he's evolved into that.

I bet rookie year Travis Kelsey did not have that dialect. Do you have Olbrick? I don't know, man. Remember Travis Kelsey on that reality show? I guess he was a few years. He doesn't like talking about catching Kelsey. Here's Ulbrick, by the way. Damn. And here's Travis Kelsey. If you want to talk

your shit, talk your shit, pal. Same guy. Same guy. I enjoy it. It's a real Brian Kelly element to this, right? Go on. They're a little more convincing about it. it they're a little better about it. I just want to tell you how proud I am to be third

you're up then third overall pick okay now I got it third overall pick is me I've been kind of pounding the drum on this one a little bit that I in a wildly competitive AFC North potentially I like the Browns

I like the Browns at nine and a half I'm hitting the over on the browns and it's just like tell me what you don't like about this roster. It's a good offensive line, the best pure running back, good skill players. The quarterback is the big question.

But again, I think he's a better chance that he comes back strong than is the guy he was at the end of last year. I think the Browns are a double-digit win team. I think they could win 10. I think they can win 11. If everything broke right, I think they could even do better than that. So I'm pounding the table there on the over at 9.5. You know, I felt very strongly this morning when I was reviewing this to go under.

You still could. I mean, now that's not taken. That's true. I really do. I don't, I think it's like the years of Browns disquiet inside of me. But I just sense like roster looks really solid. Andrew Barry did a nice job showing up the defensive line. They improved that wide receiver to some degree.

And yet we're still getting whispers and reports out of camp that the passing game has been totally disjointed. I think it's a wait and see what this offense looks like. And I've been a Kevin Stefansky fan for the most part, but just something about this journey feels like they're not going to add up to the sum of their parts. So we'll see

you, Dan. This is a very interesting one. I know like football outsiders loves Brown. You sounded like you like the Browns too, Bill. I do. I'm absolutely on the Browns bagwagon this year. And doesn't get like the Broncos doesn't feel great um not going to lie uh to be on the browns bandwagon 10 is a big number especially in that division it feels like that is a big number but there's these little things that keep happening

as the off season goes on like a little bit of research i do or an injury that happens where i feel a little better about it like when the when the ravens lost moron humphrey to an injury i was like hmm that kind of helps the browns a little bit um you know uh the research i was doing on the bengles where they face the lowest percentage of of primary quarterbacks last year. They played backups and third stringers more often than anybody else in football. And they have a new secondary coming in,

almost in a total. Kind of made me feel like the Bengals are a little exposed. The Steelers, they didn't play it. They played, they had a better record than their numbers last year. It all kind of feels like it's coming together to me. So I understand the concerns, but I'm absolutely optimistic about the Browns this year.

I'm still thinking about taking about Browns under. It's a, from my, From Zach Jackson at the athletic yesterday, stocked down from camp. The passing game has been completely unimpressive. Anything that involves Deshaun Watson remaining in the pocket has been an adventure. And not since early in camp have we seen strings of consecutive completions in any 11-on-11 period. I think the consensus has been, because it makes sense, that Watson does bounce back to being a good player. But I think there's absolute, I think it's within the realm of possibility that this,

Savansky-Watson marriage is a disaster. And there is a brownsiness of it all that I think Mark's kind of alluding to that I think could happen. Just because people are worried about their jobs. There's coach and quarterback with different agendas. There's the GM. There's a lot going on. I don't think it's a slam dunk.

I just think it's more likely that they're this than the brownsiness of it takes over. And football, Almanac has them at 10 and a half. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They're feeling good about it. Aaron Chapton is his gang. What can go wrong.

Gregie. Does that feel like I just jinx them? I don't mean to. No, I don't think we even have the power to affect what they can do themselves in a negative way. I disagree with that as well. All right. I'm going to start. This one hurts because I do generally kind of like the Panthers.

I'm going under Panthers seven and a half. The first under is my first pick. I don't know what it says about me, but I do have more unders on this potential list. Interesting. I just think when you look at a lot of the things people like about the Panthers, it's all assumptions based on last year. And there's this weird thing. People assume there's this carryover

when there's a different coaching staff that I don't assume. Their offensive line played surprisingly well last year. Both their guards are coming off really serious injuries. One's still not back on the field. Their left tackle, Ikea Kanu, you assume he's going to get better.

We'll see. He was not good at all. He was really bad in the preseason opener. It's a new defense. I like a Giro Evereaux on paper, but when you're counting on the, the defense to be so good, I don't like that it's a new coordinator. And then you look at their best player, Brian Burns is coming off an injury, their best cornerback. J.C. Horn has basically

been injured most of his time there. There's just a lot of uncertainty. And I don't see where the team's strength is. There's kind of nothing I like as better than average. Their over under is seven and a half. You got to get to eight wins. I know the schedule is definitely the thing in their favor. All the NFC-South over-unders are high because the schedule in and out of division is easy. It's still pretty tough to get to eight wins and I just don't see anything that's good about this team. I think on paper the fourth best team

in the worst division in football. And to me, that's not eight wins, under. Good one. Don't hate it. Bill disagrees. Yeah, this isn't one where like, because I went to look at football outsiders. after I wrote these all down, like, which ones are they on board with me on which one?

They're not. And this one, not a crazy amount, probably because of the schedule. I mean, the two most important things about a football team are their quarterback and their head coach. And I have faith that the Panthers are going to be better in those situations than they were a year ago. I mean, they were seven and ten last year, correct? Yeah.

I mean, I think they were seven and ten. They were, I think they were, once rule was out of there, they were coached fairly well. You're right, Bryce Young should be better, but he's still a rookie. So I guess my expectations for him are not incredibly high either. No, not incredibly high, but could he be better than Sam Donald and Baker-Mayfield? He should be. Is that out of their own possibility? I think the organization would like that to be the case.

I hope so, too. I'm more optimistic about the defense than I think, Greg is. I think, like I said, Eishore was a good coach in Denver. They were really good for most of the season. They had some young players come through, but he was. getting production of guys like Barron Browning who were not on my radar heading into the season for the Broncos. They have talent. I think J.C. Horn, the injuries are legitimate concerned, but he's been a star cornerback to me when he's been healthy. And I think if they had had

Jay C. Horn in that Bucks game where Mike Evans caught three long touchdown passes against backup cornerbacks, I think they would have won the division. I think he, we was that big of a difference maker for them a year ago. So I think the baseline is a little higher than Greg's giving them credit for. I think the quarterback and head coaching situation is better. I love Frank Reich. I think he's a really good coach. I think he's a guy who can, you know, get the most out of his quarterbacks very quickly and build an offense around that quarterback's strengths very quickly. And I think the defense has more upside than maybe it's shown over the past year. So there is definitely some, they feel like a high variance team to me. So like, because they're in that

division, yeah, you're right. They could win nine games. But I also could see them having like the number one picking the draft again. I feel like that's in their range of outcomes. So any team like that, I'm going to go under seven and a half. All right. So did we decide is, is Bill up? Bill, you're up with your time. I got a lot of unders here, here on the list. I got to pick one of them. I feel bad picking this one because everyone has been so happy and excited about them. I'm going Lions under. Wow. Oh, Gregie. I love it. You stole mine. I love it. Is that the first Is that the first steal by anybody? I, even though I agree with the Browns one, I did not have Browns over nine and a half of my list.

So I totally abide by it, but I have my concerns about how sustainable that performance was for the Lions during that big winning streak to end this season. This is a team that over that final 11 game stretch of the year, they went eight and three. they turned the ball over a total of four times four times in 11 games that is very helpful if you want to win a bunch of football games it is not something they can keep up year after year now i like what they did this off season i think they had to upgrade the secondary and they did but emmanuel mostly still on pup i believe uh they you know got cam son who i think is a really talented player Johnson had not been that caliber of player. They're still trying to figure out if he's going to play safety or play in the slot. They like Brian Branch or second round pick. I think he's going to be a good player. But a lot of moving pieces in the secondary.

I don't know if they have a settled group yet. And they did not go out and add a second pass rusher behind Aidan Hutchinson. They did not go out and add a second wide receiver to replace Jameson Williams, who's suspended and now injured as well. He's not going to play during the preseason, it sounds like. they signed David Montgomery, who I don't think is very good. I think this is a competitive team, but I think the NFC North is going to be tougher than maybe people seem right now. And so I'm comfortable going under nine and a half for the Lions this year.

Yeah, I think the hope is that the defense is way better. But you're right. I mean, at all, I didn't, I don't have, I don't have, I certainly don't have their over on my list. And I'm, I'm hoping for it. And I'm thinking it, but all the points you make are fair. I think their route to winning 10-11 games is it's a top, it's an above-average defense, which would be a huge upgrade. I do like, you mentioned not adding a second pass.

I do like their defensive line depth overall. I actually think it's a good group. Fair, that's fair. Mark, you're up. All right. I'm really struggling between two things I love here, but I'm going to do something that historically, I feel like I get bounced for this.

but I'm going Baltimore Ravens. They're at 10.5, 10.5. I'm going under, which says they can win 10 games. I'm not like trying to totally fade the Ravens fans. You have your enemy. Sure. Be my enemy. Like, I mean, they've done nothing but, you know, torch my existence for like literally

since they were birthed out of the womb of the Cleveland Browns. So how much worse can it get? Here's the thing. I think there's this assumption or perception that we're just going to get. the same Ravens defense that we've gotten for so, so long. I think there's some questions there. We just talked about it with the Marlon Humphrey injury. It could be out for the start of the

season. Their cornerback depth is a problem to begin with. Edge rusher, what's going on there? And, you know, the whole like Lamar Jackson, look at me, I'm going to throw for 6,000 yards. I know it was tongue-in-chief to sundagree, but that's a huge, I don't I'll see it when I believe it.

What happens with this offense? They did need to make a change from Greg Roman, I think just for the morale of some of the players on that side of the ball. You've added Odell, you've got some nice pieces at wide receiver. There is hope there, but I don't know if that all comes together right away. I think you're in a really top-heavy, rough-and-tumble division inside a really boiling AFC. And the Ravens, to me, are not one of the two or three teams that stands out. They're going to get this all together.

I think Lamar Jackson, believe in them a lot, but injuries about two years in a row, sabotage them. I just feel like 10 wins feels comfortable to me. If this were nine and a half, I'd really struggle with it. But 10 and a half, I don't see them going 11. So I'm comfortably taking the Ravens under. The only thing I would say is they do have a Pro Bowl backup at quarterback in Tyler Huntley, which is going to be a big difference. That is a very good point.

Yeah, one of the weirdest storylines of the offseason, though, is like it doesn't seem like John Harbaugh likes Tyler Huntley, like they don't want him on their team. Like, I actually think he might not make their team that they'll trade him for like a late round pick just because he's trying to make Josh Johnson win that job over him it sounds like that it's been an open competition he's hurt right now anyways very compelling Mark

hmm all right yeah I buy it I'm up next I'll do an under as well I know what I'm out of the bucks I'm going under on the bucks six and a half six and a half so low I know it's low but you know it's it's a situation that I don't I don't love

the QB head coach situation there. I think the offensive line declined last year and now you don't have Brady firing it out and, you know, half a second anymore. The defense is a little bit older. We could talk about the defense because I'm curious what you guys think about what you'll get from them. There are special teams, uh, has been bad. Um, and then you have the Baker and the Kyle Trask of it all.

Baker is going to be the week one quarterback. Baker loves to hold on to the ball. Um, you have Mike Evans there, obviously. You have, you have a Godwin there. Those dudes are going to get some numbers. But I think it's more likely this time next year we're talking about Todd Ball's ancient history, Baker and Tresk ancient history. This is a transition year where they drop a 5 and 12 on us here

and they get a quarterback in the draft and they're rebooting the whole operation. So you can make a case that they can hang around in that division. I'm going to say there's a team that's going to take a step back there and it's going to be them. I got the bucks under. There's one. I'll add one little point that puts me on your side. I don't think it's that hard to go over in terms of just maybe winning a couple games they don't deserve to win. So I'm kind of tempted on both sides, but I don't like the combination of the quarterbacks. With Todd Bowles has always sort of struggled, I think, to find like that play caller. And like Dave Canales, he was Gino Smith's QB coach a year ago, but he's never called plays. And that matters to me. I mean, I think when you hear long time offensive. coordinators talk about the first year they had to do that. Situationally, like, you've just never been in this situation. Not that he

hasn't maybe, you know, behind the scenes gained some experience, but the whole combination right there feels like it's ripe for underwhelming results on offense and maybe a potential disaster. I like Todd Bowles. His game management last year was disgusting. Hey, we all like Todd Bulls. Bill.

They got away with so many bad decisions played in games last year. It was, I sickened. Looking back at some of those games when they punted late in games and still managed to win the Saints game, I think was the classic one where they did not deserve a single second to win. Yes, that's my concern is now it's Baker, Mayfield, or Calatrask. The only thing I would say about this is like six and a half is not a big number. No. But it's just hard for me to imagine a lot of people going to Las Vegas or going on their online sports, but sitting there going through the numbers and saying, hmm, I feel good about betting on Baker Mayfield.

in contrast to win seven games. People are going to be hammering that under. It kind of feels like a trap to me a little bit. Okay, I understand that. And what I meant with Bowles there is like, I think we all, including Jets fans, gave Todd Bowles a pass for what happened in East Rutherford. But now you look at his, you know,

six years in, he's 32 and 49, and been to the playoffs once and lost. And the playoff was one of the worst playoff teams in recent memories, a sub-500 team that won the division last year. With Tom Brady. with Tom Brady so it's like and then I know is Tom Brady was top the here's the I guess the other way to look at a championship coordinator at some incredible as a coordinator but you're right great coordinator Tom Brady last year was at best a league average quarterback so maybe the drop off isn't as steep as people might think but still it's going to be a drop off and like I get super nervous about a head coach it hasn't gotten results and a potential disastrous quarterback pairing in our league yeah the only case for them in why I flip them in Carolina and already went under is just they do have good

like they have good players on their team Mike Evans Chris Godwin Tristan Worf's Vita Vayaa Devon White Levanta David Shack Barrett like they Jamel Dean like they have a lot of good players on their team which a lot of these teams that like are in that six and a half seven five you know over under don't really have good players or many good players so I just feel like maybe that adds up but I don't feel good about that. I wanted to see how many players Greg would keep aiming as he was going to finish that sentence.

That's a lot. That's a lot, though. That was the point. You didn't mention Ryan Jensen. There you go. Ryan Jensen's there. Carlton Davis is there. It's like in the movie when they're tracing the call

and the police is saying to the person like, draw it out. Keep talking. Keep talking. Keep talking. I know we got a quick. I'll go next. Greg's up next. Do we want to do three rounds instead of four?

Yeah. This is what happened last. All right. We're going to do three picks this year. Okay. So keep that in mind. Should we just do a quick. Can we just do a lightning round?

Yeah, we'll do it. Yeah, that's a light in the last year. Listen, it was three rounds and then a speed round at you. We're the exact same people every single year. Our lightning rounds go on for 52 minutes just to let you know. Give us a 8 o'clock delight when we get to the lighting round. Gotcha. All right.

We're still in the second round. Your second round pick is. I'm going to go bills over 10 and a half. Okay. I just, I get the schedule, and that's why it's low. I get the reason the rest of the division's good. I get people are bored of the bills, but like the chiefs, I do like that, you know, they've been so consistently successful.

13 wins a year ago, 11 the year before, 13 the year before. Josh Allen's in his prime. The coach is in his prime. There's a lot of continuity. And so I just feel like, I feel safe in their hands, kind of like you did with the chiefs, maybe not as safe because I don't think they're going to win 13 this year. But I, man, do I, can I see them? going 10 and 7, I think that's pretty unlikely.

And so to me, 11 or 12 wins and them still being the best team in the AFCs is the most likely outcome. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but to me it's the most likely outcome. To get to 11 or 12, you probably got to go what, like probably 4 and 2 in the division, right? Doable. And then take care of the business and the rest. And the out of division schedule. The out of division schedule is tough. And I see all the weaknesses.

I just think there's. kind of looking past the strengths. And I'm a big fan of continuity when your players are actually good. And they have it. And most teams don't. You can start off the season a little faster than other teams. Yeah, 13 wins last year with an injured Josh Allen for half the season. Pass a rating by 18 points after the elbow injury.

You get Von Miller back at some point. You know, your secondary is much healthier going into the season. And I'm guilty of this, but I feel like we've all, like there's a little bit of bills. Fatigue. Yeah, fatigue, exhaustion. No question. It's like, I want to just project something different for that. It's like the KC pick that you had.

It's a similar vibe. Some people are not going to win 12 again, or we're sick of seeing them win 12. To me, they're a little like the Chiefs were a year ago at this time, where people were a little sick of the Chiefs, and it's still Josh Allen and Sean McDermott, who I believe in. No question. I'm there. By the way, not to, because we've got to keep rolling here,

but the, you know what's fun is the franchise encyclopedia for the Chiefs? Let's read the entire thing on air right now. Here it is. Romeo Cronel, 2 and 14 in 2012. Andy Reid comes, okay? This is years before Patrick Mahomes. 11 and 5. I'll just do the wins. 11, 9, 11, 12, 10.

Then Patrick Mahomes arrives. 12 Super Bowl or lost the conference game. 12 won the Super Bowl. 14 lost the Super Bowl. 12 lost the conference game. 14 won the Super Bowl. That's what I mean. Like they've been the over every year that Reid's been there.

I'm giving some more juice to your heat. Yeah, well, that's what I mean. why it's a total sports luck. Or more heat to your juice, like a steaming glass of orange juice. That sounds less appealing. Let's move on. Bill. Bill, third pick.

Ah, I was talking about the Chiefs. Let's take the team they played in the Super Bowl and project them to go under. Oh. Whoa. Now that's spicy. By the way, your last two picks, you've gotten after Greg's two favorite teams, the Lions and the Eagles. I mean, that's not. But it has to be the Patriots, has to.

to be Bill's life. That's why he's a great guest. Yeah. I am here strictly to antagonize Greg. That is the primary reason. Bill and I have been total rivals ever since I showed up to like a football outsiders meet up at a bar in New York in 2007. Weird. What happened? It's been. You guys both wearing leather jackets? It can only be one. I'm sorry. Great, great, great. Great beat the hell out in me is what it boils down to. No, no, of course. It is a, there is a, there a good team. And they're not going to go like 6 and 11. I don't think they're going to be a bad team by any means. But let's go over what they did last year. Six and one in games decided by seven points or less. The healthiest team in football. Per football outsiders adjusted games lost

metric. An issue they're already dealing with this year. We saw Hassan Reddick is having thumb surgery, I believe, and he's, I believe, going to be around for week one, but that could impact a great player for them. And we know they lost a ton of talent this office. So it was both coordinators. They lose five starters on defense, both safeties, both starting linebackers. Javon Hargrave, their best defensive lineman goes to the 49ers. There's still plenty of talent here. But this is a team that, you know, injuries have impacted them dramatically in years prior. 2021. I think they started 13 offensive linemen or 13 offensive linens play 50 snaps or more in 2021. They were healthy last year, which is great. Obviously a dominant offensive line, but I think

they take a step backwards in terms of health, in terms of talent. They are not as lucky in close games. I think they are a 10 or 11 win team this year, and that might open up the NFC East for the count points. Wow. Spicy. I still think their depth is better than most teams so you could survive. And I do think there's actually more they can get out of the passing game with Brown and DeVant de Smith. So yeah, I'm going to be, to me, they're the favorites to make the Super Bowl. And so that number is not crazy. Eleven and a half is tough though. 11.5 is tough for any team in a tough division that's playing the AFCA Estada division. Even if they're great, you know, 12 in five would be a great season for them. So you're barely clearing it.

Eisen asked me when I was on a show yesterday, who is the team that people aren't really talking about enough and I said this is going to sound crazy but the Dallas Cowboys and Eisen looked at me on live television and radio like at an elbow growing out of my forehead. Well you sound like a psycho. That is weird. People are talking about them. But not

talking about them in the way that Bill is alluding to that they could win that division that they have the ability if the Eagles come down a little bit, that there's pieces in place and could be a fun division race which I don't think a lot of people are talking about. Yeah, absolutely. That's fair. I think they're the best two

rosters, just pure rosters in the NFC. Mark, your pick, number three. I just want to say to the group that I absolutely love my draft. I think that I set a fourth round. Don't talk to football yet. You've only done half your pick so far. Well, I'm about to give you my third right now. Let's do it. They sit at 8.5

and I think it's not accounting for how juicy they will be, that they'll be. Everyone's talking about last year's Detroit Lions. This year's Atlanta Falcons, who continually stack up more wins. and anyone expects under Arthur Smith year after year. It's not been like...

Oh, let's calm down. I'm not... I feel calm and collected. Defined stacking wins. Have they had a winning record? I think last year they surprised. They surprised last year. People were just counting them out.

8.5 in that division in an NFC that's sort of a milk toast. They are under Arthur Smith going to punish teams. There are questions at quarterback, but I think they did a great job retaining their all, keeping their offensive line together. They added parts all over the place

on a defense that needed help. That's a little bit of a wild car, but I like what they did on defense. It wasn't a sort of a dream team type splurge. It makes sense what they did. And I think that you've got guys like Drake London. You get a bounce back here from Kyle Pitts. You're not putting so much pressure on Desmond Ritter

because I think this is a team that they showed in the past. They're going to do it again with Bijon Robinson. They're going to run the ball down people's throats. And in this NFL, if you can do some of those things, if you're strong up front on offense, eight and a half wins is not too much to ask.

I think they're going to get to nine. I think they're going to win that division. Like, defined bounceback season for Kyle Pitts because it wasn't his fault last year that they couldn't even throw the ball straight out. Well, or just, you know, healthy. Like, he wasn't healthy, but I mean, I... Like, they had the metrics of, like, you know,

nobody got more off-target passes than Kyle Pitts. Yeah, but that was... That's also, I think that was... I would say that's more Marriota than it was Ritter. I thought Ritter, I don't have high hopes for him, but in each of his starts, he got a little bit better. It was a lot to ask to throw him in there at the end of the end of the...

the year. They have incredible confidence in them. They're seeing more than we are. I haven't seen it all in the field. That's the next factor. But again, you can get to nine wins with the way that team is composed. I love this one. It's on my long list. It wasn't quite a steal because I don't think it would have made my top four. But I don't

get if you, you know, we're not allowed to wager. We sign the gambling policy at the NFL. I have till August 31st. You have to August 31st. I don't get why the Falcons are a game lower than the Saints. I kind of like them both to have winning records this year

for a lot of the reasons that you said. Ritter is a concern, but man, I think they're going to be a pretty good offense and a great, great schedule. I'm just, I guess I'm not pounding any overs when I don't believe in the quarterback position for a team. Fair. That's, that's your prerogative.

Is that, oh, it's my turn. I don't like the vibes in Tennessee. I think that it's time. You never fade the big dog, as Evan Silva says. as Derek Henry. And a lot of people faded the big dog last year and he had another representative, Derek Henry season. Is it possible that he could do it again?

Of course. But they have a bad offensive line. Not a great pass catcher set up. An aging quarterback who struggles to stay healthy, especially if he's getting beaten. I like Vrabel a lot. I think coaching really matters and gets these teams, those extra wins.

This is seven a half. Seven and a half is the number. I wish it was six and a half, but that's how it works. This feels like in a best case scenario, best, all right, best case scenario. Hey, hold on. Yeah. I'm confused. Are you going over or under?

Under. In a best case scenario, I think this team goes nine and eight. Absolute best case scenario. Worst case scenario, wheels fall off. And this team could be picking in the top five in the draft. So I think this feels to me like a seven and ten, six and eleven. type Titan season most likely with the

it could get much worse than that I feel good about it because I don't feel good about a lot of things with this team and the Traylon Burks thing is not great either. Yeah and they the wheels fell off last season so they spent all offseason trying to put them back on and they really didn't do much and their offensive line is arguably the worst in the league

I don't I am comfortable going under with you on that I'm not I'm agreeing I should mention the Hopkins of it all I mean that we'll see if he's a difference maker at this age but I have I'm dubious of that as well I wouldn't feel good about it but if I had to choose

I actually think I'd go over on the Titans because of what Bill said earlier quarterback and coach I still believe in Tanna Hill as a asset and I really believe in Brable and more importantly I really think that defense man it looks pretty great like I like their defensive line

that they had a lot of injuries last year there's just something about them that I can't imagine them falling apart so I would go over I've got a stat for you I'll just say this I don't have a strong opinion about this one. Tennessee, I did, I told you earlier, I was doing research on

quarterbacks and and how often teams played the opposing team's primary quarterback. So either for starter or in the case like the Steelers, you know, playing Kenny Pickett as opposed to Mr. Biscay. The only team in the NFL that played the other team's number one quarterback 17 weeks last year, Tennessee Titans. They played at five pass-and-tops last year against backup quarterbacks, all of which in garbage time. typical team, about 25% of your opposing stats are going to come against backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Teams in the 90% range improved by about two and a half wins the following

season. Tennessee is like 98 or 99. I... It's pretty good. I... I can see the arguments. I'm just I've been burned so many times by Mike Brable. It had to take like his entire team getting injured last year for me to finally look smart about fading Tennessee. So I, I see the arguments. To me, this is one I would just stay away from. I would just say this, Bill, like everything fell apart for him. But what did they do? I mean, just being healthy, that's going to be enough to, because they didn't make huge gains, I thought, in terms of personnel here.

They were last, last of my offseason rankings in terms of what they did this offseason, did not like what they did. They got a little better after writing Hopkins. I think that helped, even if he's not the, DeAndre Hopkins, you know, he's better than Nick Westbrook-Kine. Like, I think that's a big upgrade. but no question. I'm shook while you're popping the hood stats there. That was a fireball metric that you just tossed at my home. Just one devil's advocate went out there.

That's good. All right. Greg, your third pick, and then we got 8 o'clock to light. Okay. My number one overall draft pick last year was under Bill Bears six and a half, and they didn't get above three. And I didn't hear any of those honking bears fans who came at me when I picked them with my number one overall pick.

coming back and saying sorry at the end of the season. And so I'm wrapping up at least the long portion of the draft by going under on the Bears again at seven and a half. I was reading the camp report and they were like talking about who's the camp MVP this year? And they were like, well, clearly DJ Moore is by far the best player on this team. And I was like, is that a good team? A team that DJ Moore is the best player on the team?

And then you look at it. Now we're disrespecting DJ Moore over here. DJ Moore is a great player. He's not a top 10 receiver in the league. and if he's the best player on your whole team, to me, that's not that talented a team. And you kind of go through it, and I don't think they're that talented. I think there's a lot of reasons you can see. They had a good offseason that they can be better, but you're asking them to be five games better.

I know they had a lot of bad luck in terms of one-score games and all that stuff. But I look at like their coaching staff to me is totally unproven. Offensive coordinator is improving. Their head coach is unproven. Their defensive personnel, to me, is pretty unproven. proven. And I don't know if Fields is an asset or not. You're kind of hoping he's, he's a mid-level quarterback. Bears fans hope he's even better than that, but I'm expecting mid-level. And so to me, seven and a half, too rich under.

A lot of gusto in that one. I feel like there was a real dismissal of the entire concept of the Bears being there. You will not be welcome in the bear. This. And then I looked, I looked over at our friends at Football Almanac. I was like, uh, oh. you know who they've got projected for the least amount of wins in the entire league 32 out of 32 this year the Chicago Bears so that was like I feel even better about it feeling better about it right here we go speed round 8 o'clock delight is a theme song bill that we use to hit up some tidbits in the news it runs one minute and 28 seconds and if you if you speak beyond that you die and Greg you will be picking last so it really it's up to you. It's up to us now to at least give Greg runway. Right. So Greg needs the deserves my question. Some

semblance of time, 20 to 27 seconds, okay? Is that check out? No. 20-ish seconds. Somewhere in that neighbor. So, once the music starts, Bill, you will share yours. Wait, what's 128 divided by four? That would be 31.

32. Okay. So just take 30 seconds. Oh, 138. In your mind, it's an internal clock. Good luck to everyone. Hit it Eric Roberts. Why am I doing math on air? There we go. Rams over six and a half wins is my final pick. Just counting on them getting healthy after being the second most injured team in football last year, down to third string offensive lineman. Really a bet on Sean McBay and the offense being competent enough to carry a defense

that's Aaron Donald and 10 anonymous players to seven or eight wins. Mark. All right, I'm countering your initial assessment. and I'm going Cleveland Browns under 9.5. I already said why. I believe it. I just believe it. I don't know why.

I have a weird feeling that things are not going to go. I know what you're really doing. Swimmingly as people think. I understand. You stole it from me. I understand. I said my bit. Greg, it's all rooted all this like stuff personal, but yours is more.

It's bad for self. It's all good. Yeah. Greg. What about you? Oh, it's my turn. Oh, good. Yes, yes.

Of course, the New York Jets. Everybody get out of my life. The logic checks out. The logic. checks out that they will go plus nine and a half because they're going to go 11 and six what possibly could go wrong. You took my brown, so I'm going to do what I thought Bill would do at the beginning. Under Giants, seven and a half.

Got a lot of questions about that defense. Don't think the offense is going to make up for it. You got time. Stretch. Trace the call. Talk more. Just going to send a little hard out. Oh.

No. A little extra. Holy Greg. Just a little extra. You just made a fifth pick. Just for fun. Yeah. It didn't count.

It didn't count now. It doesn't count. It doesn't mean anything. I guarantee that if you get one of your picks wrong next year, you're going to kind of say, I also pick up. You know what? You know what we're going to do here? Let's bleep out what he said in post because we can't, we can't let him have a fifth. Because Bill's right.

Bill's right. If he has a rough year this year, he'll say, well, I did get that if he did. You bleep that out. We can't have it. We won't remember it. You don't even remember we did this. You don't believe it. You didn't even remember we did this segment a year ago.

Oh, we got to do it anyway. Greg won't remember something he said on the show a year before. It's attached to results in competition. I don't because I thought we only picked three a year ago. I was going by Go Get My Lunch. Thank you to Nick Fortierre. Always. Include all four picks.

If you want to put my fifth in parentheses as a hat, you know, that would be fun. He'll never hear it. You'll never know what it is. Nope. I'll DM him. Bill, thank you so much, buddy. You gave us plenty of time, and now you're going to hit the shirt. Way too much time.

Sorry, Bill. And we just, we thank you, good man. Of course. Any of times. See you, Bill. Bill Barnwell, he said it all. And we've said it all. Great week of shows as we continue to drive through training camps and preseason.

We'll be back on Monday, sharing some thoughts on the second week of preseason action. And I think we're going to try to get Colleen Wolf back in here, if possible, for ATN. another episode of the Hard Knocks podcast as well with Connie. So the machine, there are no reverse gears in this tank, as I've said many times. We are moving forward over rough terrain with ease. Final thoughts, Mark. I'm just having the time of my life. We're getting away from Charles David.

The hallway. Through the glass. He the call. Bill's still there. I'm not leaving. I'm not leaving. I'm saying it so. Let Bill go.

I'm not going anywhere. I have more bets that I need to place them. This is an I-heart podcast.