NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 2025 NFL Week 14 Late and Primetime Games Preview with Bill Barnwell

Episode Date: December 4, 2025

Gregg Rosenthal and ESPN's Bill Barnwell preview the Week 14 late and primetime games starting with the Bears at the Packers followed by Eagles at Chargers on Sunday Night Football (09:55), Texans at Chiefs on Sunday Night Football (22:10), Broncos at Raiders (33:20) and Rams at Cardinals (38:35).  Note: time codes approximate. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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where we love a good day-night doubleheader. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio talking to my friend for the second time today yes, you read him at ESPN you listen to his podcast Bill Barnwell show

and he's been the defining NFL writer of his generation. I'll say it. I did his podcast earlier in the day everyone check that out and you're here to join me Bill to talk a really good

five pack of games. Welcome to the show. Thank you, Greg. what an intro I think of myself as the defining writer NFL writer at least of my own household

no expanding it out to generation I'm trying to think who else it would be this is a podcast for another day like Greg Bishop is a sneaky

one in the mix you know Connor Orr is great but I'm saying excellent I don't think there grows and thoughts

I'm not really writing anymore but we're not going to talk about that we are going to talk about double header So the Bears and the Packers, they're playing twice over the next 18 days,

or at least, you know, after Sunday, they're going to have a Thursday night game to cap this like twofer. And we're going to talk also later about the Monday night game, the Houston, Kansas City, the Sunday night game. It's going to be great. But I think we have to start with this Packers game. Packers are favored by six and a half. It's the Kevin Burkart, Tom Brady game in the afternoon.

And the Bears continue to, ascend in terms of the quality of the opponent? Yes, I'm putting the Packers over the Eagles at this point and ascend in terms of the importance of the game. What concerns you? Because that's a pretty big number the Packers are favored by in a game where the Bears are the number one seat in the NFC. If the Bears, let's say, don't even cover that number,

where it's more than a touchdown in this game, what do you think would go wrong for the Bears for them to lose by two scores? let's say. Their defense would stink. And unfortunately, great, we talked about this as we were taping my show earlier. The bear's defense might stink.

It might actually be a bad defense. So stat I would refer to here is points allowed per drive on drives that do not end in fumble recoveries or interceptions. So basically, what do you do when you don't force a turnover? The bears are 29th in the NFL in points allowed per drive by that metric. So basically, their defense is turnover or bust.

And thankfully, they have the highest turnover rate in football, second highest rate of any team over the last 10 season. So they force a lot of turnovers, which is very good. The problem is they are playing a Packers team, which has the fewest giveaways of any offense in football this year, just seven turnovers this entire season for the Packers' offense. Now, admittedly, when they have turned the ball over, it has been at disastrous times

probably cost them a game against the Browns earlier this season. Jordan Love he's known for putting the ball in danger in moments where you don't typically want the ball to be in danger, but this Packer's team protects the football really well and to me that is kind of the only

way the Bears have played defense well this season. Now they are getting back to Yelan Johnson who came back last week. Tyler Gordon is back. You might be able to make the case that they are a more complete defense perhaps than they were earlier this season, but I just don't think that's a great matchup for what the Bears want to do on the defensive side of the football. No, I agree. And I want to see if the Packers can

kind of continue the Christian Watson lead evolution of this passing attack. And I do think their size like Ant Octavian Wicks. And at some point, obviously, Jaden Reed isn't adding sides to the mix, but he'll add a certain sort of dynamism. But can this offensive passing attack get reliable, because the numbers would tell you, Jordan Love has been reliable this year, but the eye test and just the quarters at a time, halves at a time where this offense just goes away is not baked into those numbers. And so I do want to see that. The thing I'd be most worried about, and you got to it, was the pass rush for the Bears is probably the biggest weakness, I think, on their entire 53-man roster. And Jordan

Jordan Love, while protected this year, has easily the best numbers in the NFL at any quarterback. Like, everyone thinks of Jared Goff as the ultimate pressure, non-pressure quarterback split. Right now, even though you have the image of Jordan Love making some good plays, like, while backing up, he actually has the biggest splits of anyone under pressure or not. And I don't think the bears are going to apply a lot of pressure in this game. I don't think so either. I mean, the one thing I would say maybe is that.

This would have been such a good matchup for Tucker Kraft against a bear's team that's going to be missing at least one starting linebacker in J. Edmonds, if not two. T.J. Edwards has come back to practice, which would be a major help for the bears. But you do want to throw on their linebackers, want to throw over the middle of the field on them, and we'll see if Luke Musgrave can be that guy. Josh Jacobs, of course, can catch the football, although he's had kind of a rough season for the Packers. But, you know, you flip it, Greg, and you mentioned that the weakest spot on the Bears' lineup

is their pass rush. The only other position that comes to mind for me is left tackle, where the Bears are now on their third left tackle of the season. And the Packers have a pretty good pass rusher who might be able to cause Caleb Williams some trouble in this game. I thought you were going to go. The biggest weakness is like their passing game, which is more general or get real spicy and say they're quarterback or something.

Because we hadn't hit on NFL Daily the comment by Ben Johnson that they're winning in spite of their passing game, which the next day, because he knew that got a lot of run in Chicago and nationally, he pointed out how happy he is with Caleb Williams, that it wasn't about Caleb Williams, and that, like, he's making good decisions, which I think for the most part is true.

The decision making has been good. He is last in the league, Caleb Williams, in completion percentage over expected. That matches the eye test, that the ball just isn't going where he wants it to go, enough, what is your level of concern against this Packers' defense throwing the ball? Because we'll get to the run game.

I think the Bears will be able to run the ball in this game, but you're going to need Caleb Williams to make some play. Do you agree with Ben Johnson's assessment? Yes and no. I'm probably a little more pessimistic maybe than Ben Johnson is about, I do think he's making the right decision a fair amount, but I think he's making the safer decision a fair amount of the time,

especially early in the year, even when they were on Monday night football, you saw Traveman pointing out, hey, like, this is the time to take a shot. Like, you're getting, not going to lean on this over and over again, but you're getting quarters, you a deep post, that's where the ball should be going. And, you know, there's something wrong with taking those checkdown, taking the underneath those necessarily. Obviously, a short completion is better than a sack, but you're only going to get so many chances per game for those explosives.

And the reality is, unfortunately, like you said, Caleb Williams is missing enough of his throws that they're going to need those explosives not only in the run game but also in the past game to sort of make hay against the Packers. He has a 22.1% off-target rate. That's the tie with Michael Pennix basically for the worst in football.

But when he gets pressured, now everyone is going to put a higher off-target rate up when they get pressured. His off-target rate when he's pressured is 37.8%. The only player in the NFL who has a worse off-target rate when he needs to the pressure is Aaron Rogers, who is actively trying to avoid getting hit at all costs.

So my concern is really more game flow than Caleb Williams' talent. Like, if there's a scenario where the Bears get up 14-0 in this game early, and the Packers are one-dimensional, and the Bears can run the football, and Caleb's throwing off-play action, he's throwing off boots, he's not throwing in third and long while he's trailing the entire game, that's going to be fine. I think they will have opportunities to throw the football. Caleb is a talented player.

He's made some really impressive throws this year. And he's going to be in control. But if the bears do get behind early, they have to abandon or at least sort of not you rely as heavily on the run as they normally would. Caleb's dropping back on second down, on third down, they're in second and long,

third and long a ton. That is the sort of situation where I feel like the past rush can ruin the game for the bears, especially with Micah Parsons against their tackles. It sounds like we're both a little skeptical that the bears can pull this off. I'm a fan of Bill. You know, he does it all. In that little jag right there, you referred to a big internet, you know, storm over someone doubting the great Mena Kimes, our friend, about...

Stupid. Why would you ever... About how you... Yeah, it is stupid attacking, you know, quarters coverage with deep ball. you pivoted naturally earlier to the left tackle position, yes? Yeah, you could just put coach in your Twitter handle

and no one checks it. No one's like, oh, no one verifies whether you're a coach or not. That's a great point. And you also got a nice dig at Aaron Rogers, which lets me do a stat that I forgot to do on the first part of the show, which he has completed exactly one pass under pressure

in the last three games combined, which is just outrageous. All right, we have to move on from this game, but I cannot wait to watch it. Jordan Rodriguez. Uh, we, we let a different person pick which game is the number one draft pick of what game they're going to watch and, you know, quote unquote cover on our show every week. And she had the number one pick this week. I think she made the right choice with the Packers and the Bears. That would have been my pick as well. But I am very excited to attend at SoFi Stadium. My first game this season there, at least since the Barnburner, Chargers Saints preseason game. Chargers Eagles. The Eagles are favored by three. Of course, uh, it's your colleagues. I know you're tight. with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. Maybe that line is

baking in Justin Herbert's wrist injury. What? You don't hang with Joe? Does Joe Buck and Troy Aikman know who you are? Do you think? That's a good answer to that. If I say yes, I'm bragging

and if I say no, I'm being honest, and it's a little sad. So let's just leave it to a mystery. I think humble no is better. Unfortunately, it's almost a shot at them, because if they really know ball, you know, they would know. I bet Troy Aikman does.

I don't know about Joe Buff. That's actually my take. I don't think either of them. No, I think Troy does. I think Troy does. I think that line is baking in Herbert playing, or probably playing. So he's day-to-day.

The reports from Dan Graziano at ESPN is like, you know, they're going to take it and he's very hopeful. He thinks he can do it. I just watched them play an entire game with a broken. left hand and he held the hand away from him.

Watching that on replay was incredible because he was literally holding it up while he was getting sacked on the other side of his body. So if he can do that, he's playing in this freaking game. He's a badass. And here's one thing I didn't get to

on your show, Bill, because we didn't talk Chargers. You know, for all the talk over the years of Al Herbert, you know, they're doing them dirty, they don't give them enough weapons, you know, they're not supporting him. I like where this defense is at.

Obviously a good defense. It's healthier. Helps out a quarterback. We got the offensive line problems. We know. But they brought Jamari Sawyer at left tackle last week. Might have stabilized things a little bit. You're giving up some run blocking to get the pass blocking.

Might have stabilized things a little bit. Trey Pipkins is back. And this group of weapons is great. Like they have five, they have four guys over 500 yards right now receiving, including Arrondi Gadsden, who's a rookie of the year candidate. And Kimani Vidal is looking great in the back. And we might get Amari and Hampton. Like, he's got a lot to work with.

It's Herbert's year. I think he can do this. I think he can get this win. He's got one hand, though. He mentioned all the other stuff, but he has one hand. He has a hand in a Nintendo Power Glove, and he has one hand to use. Now, you can win with one hand. We saw him play well last week with one or play well enough with one hand.

I guess the place I would start with this, Greg, is knowing your quarterback is compromise maybe or at least limited at the very least and given that we just saw the Eagles get run over by the Chicago Bears last week do you think the Chargers whether it's Mani Vidal or like you said perhaps they're returning or Marion Hampton do you think they try to lean super heavy into the run and just try to win the Greg Roman way and just go super run first

the way he might have a few years ago in San Francisco or in Baltimore or then I guess the other question is do you think they can do that if that's their game plan and philosophy heading into the game. I think they will try. Yes. I have my doubts whether they can. I think Vidal's like played better than I ever would have expected. I think he's going to have a good career. And if you add Hampton to the mix, that's a great group. But even last week against the Raiders, to me was more about him breaking tackles than it was about the blocking. The Eagles, if you're going to beat them defensively and I'm not

I'm not selling all my Eagles defensive stock because of that one game or even the last two games like I do think it's probably better done on the ground. I do have my doubts of this Chargers offensive line protecting for four quarters against this Eagles pass rush even

if I think they're like upgraded maybe from where they were three weeks ago where it was like really just destitute. Yeah I mean saw your blade left tackle in the past I thought he did a reasonable job. I was sort of surprised they did not go back to that earlier.

I mean, they were playing Trevor Penny at left tackle before they gave Salier a shot, which never really made sense to me. I do agree that it's going to be tougher for them to succeed on the run. The Bears game was a lot of zone runs against the Eagles. They are the second best team in football by EPA per play on zone runs.

The Chargers are 16th in EPA per play on those zone runs. And I would flip it and think about what Vic Fangio does really well and it's disguised his coverages. Pre-post-snap, he wants to spin his safeties. He wants to, even post-snap, he wants to mask what his safety is what his coverage defenders are actually doing. He wants to give the quarterback as little info as possible. And that's been a difference maker for Justin Herbert and this Chargers offense.

He's fifth in the NFL in total QBR, our sat over 80sPN. When he faces disguised coverages this year, he's 21st when he does not face the sky's coverage is fifth, 21st when the coverages are disguised. And so he'll put the ball in danger, put the ball on a tight window. I do think I'm a little concerned about that. But I know the Chargers are work in progress on the offensive line, but this Eagles defense, you know, the key pieces are still there, but they're still figuring out what their best personnel is.

I mean, Jihad Campbell, who was a defensive rookie of the year candidate earlier this year, basically been benched for Nekovie Dean. He hasn't played at all. He didn't played a defensive staff at all last week, even when they were getting run over on the ground. They're integrating Jalen Phillips. Michael Carter was in the lineup as a slot cornerback. and then kind of fell out of favor.

We saw more Dory Jackson from here and there. It just sort of feels like, even though we're two-thirds of the way into the year, the Eagles are still trying to find what their best personnel groupings are, what they should be doing against, you know, bigger packages, what they should be doing in obvious passing spots.

And it feels like there's always at least one or two spots in the lineup teams can attack. And so for the Chargers, I just think it's, you know, can they find Dory Jackson all that often? Can they find the Kobe gene in coverage all that often? Can they find those spots that they can take advantage of before they end up trailing in this game? Yeah, Reed Blankenship is another one that Ali Connolly on our recap show of the Black Friday game pointed out. Everyone should check out, by the way, Ali and I are back.

The Saturday Sicko show is coming back for its second episode on Saturday. The Saturday's Atlantic podcast. It is quite exciting. They're, by the way, a ball possession offense. and I do want to flip and talk about the other side. But it is interesting when you think about the bears and what they did. Maybe they can do what the bears did, but in a different way. The chargers are second in the NFL.

I was surprised to see this in plays per drive. So a lot of that is Justin Herbert making magic on third down, frankly. But yeah, like, by the way, if he goes and has an awesome game, and I'm leaving this open for a lot of quarterbacks out there. Dak is in that mix. Like, if he has an awesome game on Monday night, you'll start hearing, Hey, why not Justin Herbert for MVP? I don't think it's that crazy in a year

where there's not like totally obvious guys. Okay, on the other side, Philadelphia leads the league in three and outs. And this is where, you know, you can see the path for the Chargers winning because you don't think that they'll need as many points. Their defense is healthier right now than it's been all season, certainly at edge, but they also have Elijah Molden, some key guys up front, Tierre Tart and Deshaun Hand, who have had injuries, their back.

one of their best cornerbacks, Tarheeb still is back. So they're just healthier. And one thing I saw last week against the Raiders, they were a lot more, I know it was the Raiders, but they were more creative doing kind of the Mike McDonald type of stuff

and like Blitzie, just getting a little more creative, which I think could work against this Eagles offense. Yeah, I mean, you know, the Eagles are a different offense without Lane Johnson. We've known that for a decade. More than a decade at this point, they are a different team when lane johnson is not on the field he is not going to play in this game

and this is not an offense that is the most uh how can i put this nicely extensive no okay good good is maybe a nice way to put it um or a realistic way to put it it's sloppy it's inconsistent um it's exploitable and i mean the eagles are a team that win by dominating with their personnel they are not a team that's winning with their scheme and so that could be limited uh pass protection group That can mean things you can exploit with your blitzes, with your certain pressures, to your point. There's a lot of ways I think you beat the Eagles that are beyond just simply our guys or better than your guys, because the Eagles have incredible personnel, especially when everyone is healthy, which is obviously not the case right now.

But I think for the Chargers, the thing you're hoping to have this be is sort of the opposite of what, similar to what you said about the Chargers on the ball. Can you force the Eagles to drive down the field with six or seven first down? can you take away the explosives, which they have no explosives in the run game right now. They have plenty of explosives in the passing game. Don't have Day Smith has had some big games. AJ Brown has had some big catchers, even over the past couple weeks. If you can take stuff away over the top and just force Gillette Hertz,

force stay calm Barkley, force the offensive line, force the receivers to not drop passes, to not commit penalties, to not allow sacks, not allow pressures, just to be a grinded out offense, they're going to make mistakes. They just have not been consistent enough to pull that off. And I trust that Jesse Mentor and the Chargers have that kind of big picture ability and vision. I do think they can execute that and do that throughout 60 minutes of a football game. They've been really versatile this year. They've also been very streaky.

They started the year as one of the best defensive league. They had about a month where they were one of the worst defense league. Now they're trending back towards being one of the best. But one thing I like that you mentioned and that they can do is, I think, change it up week to week and really build a game plan. Right now, I think the veterans. on this team. They've been in this system for a while and like I said they're healthier. If it's not obvious enough

I like the charges. Can I ask you a question? Yes, please. Very quickly. So if you pull Eagles fans, I would say about 90% of them think that this is the 2023 collapse happening again. Yeah. How confident are you that this is the 20203

collapse happening again to the Eagles? Not confident. I don't think it's going to be that bad. That was crazy. It's going to be a little bad, though. Yeah, I do. I think they'll find a way to, like, beat the Raiders and the commanders a couple times.

Maybe they lose one commander's game. And, like, if they lose a playoff game, one and done, they're competitive. That was one of the worst teams in the NFL by the end of the season. It was so, but I've almost, I can't remember another situation like that where a team turned into one of the worst teams in the NFL for the last month of the season.

And, like, everyone just assumed they were going to get blown out in the playoffs. And then they did. And it was a team that had a Super Bowl predigree. I don't think they're going to be like that. Like, I think they'll probably lose in more heartbreaking fashion in these games if they're, if they're going to lose. Yeah, I mean, I just, last week, they missed an extra point that way to tie the game. They're in position in the red zone to score. Jalen Hurts fumbles in the tush push the week before, uh, they go up 21-0 on the Cowboys.

They're positioned to get in the red zone and score again and a penalty gets good on the catch called back and then they fumble on the next play. Like, there's been a fair amount of bad luck. And the defense is still playing well enough. I know they didn't play great against the run last week, but they have been good to. enough that I'm not anticipating a Matt Patricia led collapse here down the stretch. So they might be not as good maybe as they looked earlier this year, but I don't think they're going to have a collapse the way they did in 2020. And keep an eye on Nick Seriani.

I wouldn't be surprised if he is calling the plays this week. I know they're not going to announce it or anything, but whether he's going to have a bigger hand, he's returning to the place where he cut his teeth. You know, they have moved up the highway from San Diego to here. He didn't coach in so far stadium. I hope he doesn't go to the wrong stadium. Yes, but he was a charger for a long time. It's time for the Sunday Drive presented by Toyota.

Let's go places. Texans in Kansas City. Chiefs are favored by three and a half. It's the NBCA team, RICO Collinsworth. I do know Chris Collinsworth. Okay, you do? Personally? We got that checked out.

Okay. I've had a conversation or two with him. I did a panel with him at a conference once. I have never had a conversation with him, but he once pre-taped different segments for a fantasy show. It was called the Fantasy Fix with me and Tiffany Simons on NBCSports.com about 18 years ago

where he pre-tapeed the segment kind of like Michael Jordan is doing with Mike Dorico where he did it all in one day. And he had to just sit there for 20 straight segments and ask us a question. Hey, Greg and Tiffany, who do you think is going to...

Okay, that was a bad, Chris. Collinsworth, but I tried. That was not bad. That was good. Oh, man, that was so much better than I could have done. Who do you think should start for the Packers? Sam Congato or Ammon Green? Or it's like something like that.

I just love that these two... These two teams are playing each other right now is awesome. Because the chiefs are just holding on for dear life and the Texans are reborn. And yet, whoever loses this game is in a tough spot, including the Texans. So what fascinates you most from this game? Oh, Greg. Fascinating me, terrifying me, scaring me, the Chiefs Offensive Line versus Will Anderson and Danil Hunter.

So according to the most recent reports, as we tape this on Wednesday afternoon here on the East Coast, Josh Simmons has a dislocated risk. Probably not going to play. I think he's going to IR. The word is he's going to IR is the expectation. Typically, you don't play with the dislocated wrist. I feel confident on that one. Trey Smith, Juan Taylor, both questionable. It sounds like maybe the wrong side of questionable for this game. Greg, that means Jalen Moore, according to Chiefs Beat Reporters at right tackle, Mike Calliando at right guard.

And yes, after spending the entire offseason trying to avoid this happening, the Chiefs are expecting the Juania Morris experience. to happen again at left tackle against the scariest one-two punch of edge rushers in all of football in Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. It's a absolute nightmare for the Kansas City Chiefs to have this happen

against this particular opponent. That's so well said and true. And I'm so spooked by the Chiefs that this all, when you say these things, it all just seems to be setting up. Well, of course then Andy Reid's going to come up with this great game plan and we're going to be talking Sunday night about how did they overcome all of this. But you know how many times I've thought that this season? And then it,

but it hasn't happened. Like how many times I've thought, well, yeah, this is the moment where, you know, when it's not looking great, actually they're going to do this. And they don't. And I'll ask you this. Like, do you think Andy Reid's missing something here? Does he need a little inspiration? It's almost like they've just run out of ideas or something. Maybe having so much. many limitations this week. They'll somehow come up with something crazy like the Andy Reid of old. I feel like we haven't been seen that. Even though we've been seen Prime Patrick Mahomes, I don't know if we've been seen Prime Andy Reid. Craig, I'll tell you what. Andy Reid can just watch this show. I will tell Andy Reid what he needs to do to win this game. He doesn't need

Matt Nagy. He doesn't need a big staff. I'll keep it very simple for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. run the damn ball and run it from under center and don't do your shotgun runs don't do your RPO's get underneath center and run the damn ball the chiefs are

the second best offense in football by EPA per play on under center designed rushes and the Texans, Greg, are 26th in EPA per play on under center design rushes I don't think there's anything they can do to stop those edge rushers

we saw in the Super Bowl last year right like they tried to chip with Kelsey, they tried to get it, you know, tried to help out on their best player and Jalen Carter and then have one of ones elsewhere. It didn't work. Kelsey's on a good chipper. They had fewer guys going out into routes. There just wasn't anybody getting open.

And the Eagles, sure, the Chiefs were still losing enough of their one-on-ones to the Eagles that Mahomes was still getting sacked, even though at some points they were max protecting or keeping seven in protection. I don't think you want to lean heavy into the pass in this game. I think you want to try to run the football. You want to try to give your offensive line as much help as possible. you want to avoid third and long as much as possible. And I don't know if that's going to work

because this is a inferior version of the Chief's offensive line than the one they've had at their best earlier this year. But especially if you can get trade spent in the lineup, I think you have to give it a shot just because to me that's the, that is the most plausible way you can have a sustainable and successful offense

against this Texan team. Barnwell becoming a run the damn ball guy in his dotage, you know? Who would have thunk it? Forget Rams Panthers. That's the biggest upset of the year. I think Pacheco looked better last week than he did early in the season. He hasn't looked great for a couple seasons.

I thought just to my eye, he had a little more juice last week and limited snaps. They still were using Cremont. So he would be the guy if you can get kind of the old version of Pacheco back. On the flip side, like can Houston's offense continue? you to kind of catch a groove of normality. Oh, yeah. Now, they're mixing in these dumb plays where they mess up in short yardage or they have illegal formations or they're handing it off to the tight end.

There's still some real Texan-y stuff in there. But whether it was Davis Mills or CJ Stroud last week, especially in the second half, they have been pretty cohesive as just like a normal looking offense, especially passing the ball. And they're getting more out of Xavier Hutchinson and Jaden Higgins and Dalton Schultz, which I think is really important to have kind of an array of options for C.J. Stroud to go to. We know Nico Collins is a badass. He'll probably be matched up on Trent McDuffie for a lot of this game. It's a pretty ordinary defense for the Chiefs. And so I do kind of feel like the Texans are coming into their own as just a normal offense. Do you think they

can keep that going? I like when you say mix in dumb plays, like there's a section of the play sheet that just has dumb plays do not call and Nick Kelly cannot resist the urge to call that play in the wrong spot. It's like poorly executed plays. Just like in that Colts game, they could have won by a lot more if they could just pick up a yard in third or fourth and one. So it's not even necessarily a play call, but they're still not great is my point. But the rest of the, you know, they are moving the ball a little bit. They are moving the ball. And so they've been way more efficient on a, on a play-by-play basis. And there's a stat called success rate, which measures how often you stay on schedule on the offensive side of the ball.

They are third in success rate on offense over the last month of the year, even though Vince Mills was playing quarterback for three of those four games. And the way they're doing it to me is by getting another offensive lineman on the field. They have leaned heavily into the six offensive linemen sets, which, number one, their linemen aren't very good. So getting an extra one on the field helps just creating a further path for edge rusher to get to the quarterback. It kind of simplifies some of your pass pro because, you know, if you're going to full slide, if you're going to try to get one-on-ones, it's a little easier to have an extra lineman on the field.

So you can handle, you know, some bigger fronts better. They've been running the ball more efficiently. They have had a 55% success rate with six offensive linens sets over the year. The second best rate in football. And for the Chiefs, I think that's a really big problem because, number one, they want to live in nickel anyway. They'll play base defense if they have to, but they want to live with five, six defensive backs on the field. A lot of the Steve Spagnolo, exotic stuff, is going to come out of nickel and dime packages. And so by getting into six-o-line sets, you're basically daring them to match with their base defense.

And then you're limiting a lot of what Spags can do with kind of his exotic pressures. And then I think the biggest thing is if you can avoid the third and long. That was, I think, the biggest problem for the Texans last year. they had 6.2 snaps per game and 3rd and 8 plus. And with their offensive line, that was a nightmare. I mean, all those third and longs were disaster. They had 15 of them in the two games against the Chiefs last year and only converted four of them.

And so this year, it's down to five per game over the last four. It's still not ideal, to your point, still some sloppiness. Run game has not been great. It's just been maybe a tiny bit better. But if you can avoid those third and longs, you're getting away from the spags, the spags downs where he can dial up his best stuff. You're getting away from the places where you're going to be blitzable, where your tackles are going to be one-on-one. If you can avoid those spots, this offense is going to be fine.

And by staying on schedule and having a high success rate, you are avoiding those third and longs. And so that's going to make this a very tough matchup for the Chiefs that the Texans can pass the ball well on early downs, even if it's on a big play, even if it's just a three, four, five-yard gain, avoiding the negatives, avoiding the penalties, avoiding the sacks. That's how this offense moves forward. Yeah, this is, I never count out Steve Bagnola to have the right game plan, but it's just an ordinary defense. They don't have enough. Can I give you one more stack, great? Please. Chiefs defense this year when they blitz, 30 second in the NFL in pressure rate.

That is the tough part for me with this chief's defense is that their identity is the perfect blitz at the right time. And I don't think Steve Bagnolo has forgotten how the blitz. It's just been way less successful when they have blitzed at any defense. If you blitzing you don't get home, you're in a terrible problem. And so if the Chiefs are not going to get home with their blitzes in this game and they have had a lot of trouble getting home with their blitzis this year, I would expect Jayden Higgins, David Huffinson, Nico Collins, even Dolton Schultz, to have a lot of favorable matchups downfield

and C.J. Stroud to find those receivers. And just judging on eye tests, like the last month, the Houston offensive line for all the grief that they've taken, it's been like, it's been pretty normal. I would say it's been like a little below average. Ben Baldwin does this. It's very hard to get metrics on offensive line. Yeah, where they have, he combines three different offensive line metrics

from sports info, info solutions, and PFF and the ESPN. And they were like 20th. And I was like, that, that's great. That's normal. All right, that's going to be an awesome game. I think I'm taking the Texans. Let's take a quick break, and we're going to be back to wrap up the week 14 slate.

That was the Sunday Drive, presented by Toyota. Let's go place. Toyota is all in all season with another year of Toyota game day giveaways. Coming up during this week's Sunday night game, the Houston Texans versus the Kansas City Chiefs. If the first drive of the second half ends in points or points are scored in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter, a hundred fans will each win a $150 NFL gift card for this holiday season just in time to gift or grab the gear you love.

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What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, the Off the Edge with Cam Jordan Podcasts. Happy in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment about anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture. And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season, the season of more on the Off the Edge with Cam Joined podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage. Store more and do more with your data. Try them for free at Wasabi.com.

Back on NFL Daily, as we broke from the Bill Barnwell show earlier today. He said he had to go to a coffee shop to do some prep. He's a pro, and I can see that prep in this show. This is the part of the show. It's got to test you a little more. Broncos heavily favored at Vegas. I feel like we've covered the Raiders too much lately on this show. It's just been so bad.

The Broncos are obviously the more interesting side. Could this be a rare, okay, bear with me here, a revenge game for Bo Nix and the Broncos just against how bad they looked against the Raiders last time. Everyone was making fun of them for how terrible they looked, putting up like 200 yards of offense against the Raiders. So it's a revenge game against expectations, and it's in the perfect, you know,

conditions of Allegiance Stadium. Greg, you know, I did go to that coffee shop and I rewatch the Broncos Raiders game. And weirdly, everyone left. Everyone cleared out of the coffee shop because the game was so awful. I think Patrick Graham had a really good game plan against Bo Nix in that first game. Contained him in the pocket, didn't let him rush. He didn't have a single scramble.

I think his five attempts, it was kneel downs and sneaks in that game. It was taken away the first read. Bo Nix was 9 of 20 for 113 yards and two picks when he held the ball for over two and a half seconds. it was a lot of basically daring Bo Nix to be a quarterback. Go through your progressions, work out of the pocket. That's not what Sean Payton wants Bo Nix to do. It's not what Bo Nix wants Bo Nix to do, but the Raiders showed that game plan.

And so you would figure if you're going to talk about a guy who's good at Justin, a guy who's good at, you know, coming up with stuff to counter what you want to do on defense with a week to watch that game and to look back, I would imagine Sean Payton will be in pretty good shape in terms of what they're game planning for the Raiders in this matchup. So I do think it's a prove-it game for Bo Nix. And I do think that the Broncos will be better on offense. Although, a little concerned about the run game without J.K. Dada.

Yeah, they haven't looked as good. The Raiders defensive numbers were pretty good coming out of that game, for instance. Like over the course of the season, they were slightly better than average. Considering their talent level was a good coaching job by Pete Carroll and Patrick Graham on that side of the ball. Since then, it hasn't looked good. There's just not much push. I think Sean Payton in much better conditions, and the conditions were terrible that night.

It was freezing. Like, it's just going to find too much offense for the Raiders to keep up. Gino looks a little shell-shocked out there. And watching him against this Broncos team doesn't seem fair. The Broncos, like Miles Garrett, are going after an NFL record. They have a real chance here to get the NFL team sack record. And you know who's helping? now every week when they

face another defense and helping their sack numbers, it's Gino Smith and the Raiders. It's just like a walking seven sacks to start the game. It's tough to watch. What do you like when you see this Broncos defense at their best? I mean, you didn't even mention that they didn't have

Pat Sertan, I believe, in that first game between these two teams. So now you're adding the reigning defensive player of the year back to a game where it felt like the Raiders could have played for 40 quarters. and maybe not got in to 21 points, which is probably what they needed to win that game.

I mean, you're hoping maybe the Chip Kelly firing changes some things. I know that there's some reports this week that they were just running the Chip Kelly offense all along. Are they running the Pete Carroll offense all along? But, I mean, they could not, in that game, reliably get to Brock Bowers. The only big catch Brock Bowers had was a play where Talanoa Hufanga tried to jump on underneath rap

basically just went off his instincts. And usually those are good. Sometimes they aren't. And this was a play where they weren't. Bauer was going to open for a big game, but he otherwise was completely locked down. They had just not have the ability to get the ball through their really,

not only their best receiver, but really their only receiver of any note right now. They weren't able to run the football. Ash and Jonti did not have a good game. I don't put that on Ashton Jonti. I put that on the offensive line and the fact that the Broncos have one of the best defensive lines in football. But, you know, with the Raiders,

it was like, okay, you don't have the talent, but you schemed up a good game. With the Broncos, the scheme is good, and they have incredible talent, and they're getting back their best defensive players. So it's just hard for me to imagine this game being significantly different for the Raiders' offense. I would expect a lot of third and long, a lot of sacks. I would expect Nick Benito to try to win the best mortal defensive player award behind Miles Garrett. But I just don't see a way for the Raiders to dramatically change the way they approach offense in this game. And I was going to say the Broncos, you know,

they've skated by the last three weeks, actually four weeks, winning four games by a combined 10 points. They have had a couple blowouts this season. They had the Bengals game that was not close. They took care of the Cowboys pretty easily. I think this is going to be another one. And yeah, like I said,

everyone check out Bill's show, where we decided whether the Broncos were lucky or good. They were a good discussion. Let's wrap with the Rams who are both good and not even think they're lucky. They actually maybe should be better than 9 and 3. If you think about the way their season started, that Eagles game, certainly the Panthers game last week was a certain sort of, you know,

losing the turnover battle and not being able to get the ball back. I do think in this matchup against the Cardinals, the Rams are favored by seven and a half. It's Kenny Albert and Jonathan Vilma on the call, that there are some things that the Cardinals can do to bother him. And like the number one thing I'm probably watching from the Rams side is, like, can the pass rush be a little more consistent? Teams have done a good job passing quickly to kind of mitigate the Rams pass rush. And, you know, they struggled to get off

the field last week. I mean, that's, of course, that's the recipe to do it. But it's a little surprising. I know they don't blitz much, but they're not in the top 10 of pressure rate this season. Considering the talent that they have, I kind of want to see their pass rush come fully alive down the stretch, and this would be an opportunity to do so against a team in Jacoby Brissette who holds the ball quite a long time. Yeah, I mean, a lot of the success the Panthers

had last week was throwing under two and a half seconds. A lot of quick game, a lot of, you know, just trying to find soft spots in zones. 9 of 11, Bryce Young for 122 and two touchdowns within two and a half seconds. And the Rams were only 15th in the NFL and QBR on throws under

two and a half seconds your last. That's usually the kind of like the common delineator for quick game versus a more traditional passing attack. And so in an ideal world, you would have the ability to make those throws. If you're Jacoby Brissette, that's just not typically how this offense work. They want to be more of a heavy play action team, which is going to be holding the ball, trying to hit more shots down field. It's going to be tougher if Marvin Harrison doesn't play in this game.

He's still uncertain. The rest have been very good against tight ends here. I think they're second in the NFL in QBR on targets to tight ends. And so not just as simple as getting the ball to Trey McBride. I love a little bit of Greg Dorch. I always wish they'd get a little more Greg Dorch involved in the offense. But Greg, the big thing that I think really underpinned the Panthers' offense last week was running the football.

And the Cardinals' offense is 30th in the NFL this year in EPA per play on design runs. That's been the biggest disappointment for this team this season, full stop. It's just they have been a very fun, very aggressive rushing attack over the past couple of years, whether it was losing their offensive coordinator, losing James Connor, losing trade Benson, not having the ability to go to three tight-end sets with Tip Ryman hurt, all those things probably contributed a little bit, but they just have not been a good designed run team this year. And so that was hurting with Kyler Murray. They were getting stuck in a lot of third and longs. They've been a little better because Jacoby percent, I think,

is better in those dropback passing spots than Kyler is. But against the Rams, that might be the Ruslin. Like, you know, if you're just, if your play action games take it out of the game because you're trailing and because you're not running the ball effectively and you're stuck in third and long. That might be what unlocks a really good game from this Rams pass right. Yeah, I think it's a tough match because of what you just said. Trey Benson, by the way, not at practice. Marvin Harrison, not at practice. Harrison has a heel injury. I don't think he's expected to play. Benton, it's especially concerning because he came off the activation window and now he's not practicing. For what it's worth,

and I don't think it's much. In this matchup, Sean McVeigh, Jonathan Gannon, a lot of the same players was still a pretty good Rams offense last year. They scored 23 total points in two games. They average 11.5 points. Also included, you know, maybe the high moment of the Jonathan Gannon era putting up a 40 burger on the Rams in like a 35 point victory early last season. And then they had a struggle fest defensive game later in the year. This, this Cardinals team is good enough to make you sweat, but then lose. Their 20th in DVOA, uh, which is better than you expect from a three and nine team. They have 5.3, like, estimated win.

That sounds right. They actually seem like a 5 and 7 team, but I always think that really great teams coming off a loss, there is a human element. I think where there's like the Plexiglass principle. They bounce back generally, and I think they'll play their best. And I think they'll do it by running the ball. People don't, I think, realize how, just how great they are running the ball. And even last week against Carolina, they are getting such good push up front for Corum and Kyron Williams.

So I could see a game. This is not a fantasy show, Bill, but like where you got like a bear's thing going on where both Corum and Kyron Williams go over 100 yards and it's like 31 to 16 and it's just like a run fest for the Rams. That's the time of the type of game. You can't lose in the division. They cannot lose this game in the division or else you can actually let in San Francisco to win this division still.

They're four and one in the division, San Francisco. I have a question for you. I'll set up, I guess, with that. Yes. You've got to go pick up your kid. I do. Any reason to think Matthew Stafford's rough game last week?

Fluke. Any reason to think it could stick around? Any reason to think that the RAM should be a little concerned at all? No. Just kind of just a bad game. Not at all because a couple were just the type of turnovers that he makes consistently

throughout his career. He's aggressive and it happens. He held the ball a little. Like, no, because he played well the rest of the game. Like, they averaged almost eight yards. for playing that game. So that's a big fat no, because to me, he's out, he'll have some turnovers. It's kind of been a fluky how few turnovers he's had, but he's probably my MVP right now if I had to choose one. We don't have to. Yeah, I mean, Drake Payne. We got five weeks. Also in the

conversation. We don't have to. We got five weeks. Would you give Jonathan Gannon a fourth season, by the way? Yes, I would. The defense is not the problem with this team, the offenses. Uh, I love it. Bill. Those are an okay team. You, uh, you said, were going to prep and you did it and we did it. And so everyone, uh, should check out. Um, you know, who knows? We've got, we've got you. Maybe we can get a Joe and Troy, uh, on a podcast and we could introduce you guys. I will, um, I'll pass that up the chain. We'll see. We'll see if, uh, see if that's likely to occur. I'm seeing this from our great producer here that, um, you know, maybe, uh, there was going to be some combination.

there's an article out here on a podcast of like maybe Schaefter could be on NFL network and maybe you know me and you are now doing it together we are the synergy by the way without even being asked um that they're asking for me you and Mina we're we've already been doing it on the Trojan horse of NFL network it seems like that's that's that's just bringing the bristice bristiality over to Culver city Los Angeles you made you made this multi-billion dollar merger happen uh thank you Bill, go, go pick up your lovely child. And that's it for our preview show. We will be back on Thursday with an exciting recap. We've got a banger. It's Cowboys. It's Lions. That'll be up in the feed from

Nick Shook and myself. And then, yes, all the weekend content with our picks and Ali. Check us out on YouTube. And thank you to everyone who sent us their messages for being on your Spotify wrapped. We love you. If a Lenovo gaming computer is on your holiday list, don't shop around, just go directly to the source, Lenovo.com. You'll find exclusive deals on the gaming PCs you want, like the Lenovo Legion Tower 5 Gen 10 gaming desktop and Lenovo Lock Gaming Laptop. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing, and just go directly to the source, Lenovo.com, where PCs are up to 50% off. That's Lenovo.com. Lenovo,

Lenovo. Hey, everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move to Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team-building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision-makers,

and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL fantasy football podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies.

Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you craft. your opponents. Listen to the NFL fantasy football podcast on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast,

the Off the Edge with Cam Jordan podcast. Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment. I buy anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture. And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season, the season of more on the Off the Edge with Cam Joined podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage. Store more and do more with your data.

Try them for free at wasabi.com. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.