NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 2025 Wild Card Round Preview

Episode Date: January 8, 2026

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Patrick Claybon and Ollie Connolly to preview the Wild Card round of action from around the NFL starting with the Rams at the Panthers (02:00) followed by Packers at Bears (11:30), 49ers at Eagles (28:12), Bills at Jaguars (41:30), Chargers at Patriots (54:51) and Texans at Steelers (01:07:45). Note: time codes approximate. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we are not one of the nine organizations trying to hire John Harbaugh right now. I am Greg Rosenthal, and I'm here in the Chris Wesleying podcast studio with my friend Patrick Claibon and joining us from the UK, lovely Manchester. Our friend, Ali Connolly, it's not Saturday. but this is the wild card preview

and I think it's a perfect time for the sickos to come out. I'm looking forward to this one. Is this the best weekend of the year for the NFL, Ollie? How would you rank them? I would rank this first this season. I traditionally agree

the divisional round is the best weekend. I think this season with the matchups we have, it's a ridiculously loaded slate with how even all the teams are. So I think this year, this is the best week of football. I agree with that because this is a unique season

in which I can see any of the AFC teams making the Super Bowl except for the Steelers and I can see any teams in the playoffs winning the Super Bowl except who would you cross up

you're trying to make me say it Greg I see what's taking place here okay I well it's an interesting because someone asked me like who's your I haven't really thought about who you're going to pick to win the Super Bowl but the only teams that would really surprise me winning the Super Bowl would be Pittsburgh

okay I threw that Carolina certainly I'd throw in Chicago in San Francisco and even Green Bay I guess would surprise me in the end

because the NFC is a little deeper but that means that there's nine teams right now that wouldn't really surprise me that much if they won this Yeah it would be

the two incredible Cinderella runs and everybody else you know it's a Super Bowl champion but they won't like make a movie in 40 years about like they would

the Steelers or the Panthers and the divisional round is great I think I still would go with week one is always, to me, is always, like, the most exciting because it's just, it's just an explosion. And you have, and you have so much ahead of you. But right now, we're going to go through each one of these games.

We're going to start in the NFC. And we'll start with the biggest point spread, I guess. The one game where it seems like it might not be that great a game. At the time of this conversation, we're having across most of the planet. Thanks to Ollie. Shout out to the folks in Manchester. The Los Angeles Rams traveling back. to the Bank of America Stadium.

I don't know why I said the Bank of America Stadium. 10.5 point favorites at the time we're having this conversation at the Carolina Panthers. The over under is 46.5. Joe Davis and G. Reg is back in Carolina for this one, Greg. Vegas, not necessarily feeling like the Panthers have a chance. You said that you would be surprised. Do you feel like they have a chance? It's 10.5 in the right spot.

Yeah, I think it is. And going back and looking at that game where, you know, the Panthers just beat them, not that long ago. That's going to be a recurring theme on this show. You would think that would give you more confidence that they could do it again, but that's a three-turnover game for Matthew Stafford. And it was also, in terms of the running game for the Rams, the highest success rate that any team had running the ball in any game all season long.

And that's kind of where I start, Ali, that the Rams guards dominated in this game. And so we don't know if Kevin Dotson is going to be available. That's a really big injury thing to watch in this game. But I look at the Panthers. And of course, it could be close. It's an NFL game. But they're a bottom 10 run defense in general. And they looked worse than that against the Rams.

And if they can't hold up, I think that you almost start trailing by a touchdown or two right there because I can't imagine them stopping them on the ground too often. Yeah, in that game, the Rams hit before the line of scrimmage rate was full up. The league average is 30%. So that is how poor the Panthers defense was in that game. That game was wonky anyway with the bad weather and you mentioned the turnovers and Bryce hit in two

absolute seeds on fourth down when it was like must have it territory and it's just hard to think that you could get that amalgamation again. I do think it kind of comes down to how Bryce Young plays and our Chris Shula schemes up against him and I imagine he's going to try and make him hold onto the ball as long as possible and see if you can play

some second reaction football. I thought there are really good flashes of that from Bryce in the books game, but it's not really being where he's been at his best this season. So the longer Bryce is holding the ball, I think the more trouble the Panthers get in, but he was absolutely money. I must have a situation in the first matchup. So I think it's one of those ones where unless there's real turnover, fluky look, the Panthers are in trouble.

Yeah, I'm looking at this from a different point of view, because when I see Bryce being able to get to that point where he's having the second reaction making plays as the play breaks down, that's where I get the confidence because that means they didn't force the ball out of his hands early and where this situation where it's safety Bryce it is run on first down short pass on second down it's third and long like here you go kid figure it out i i think that's the rough situation because he's not only having to figure it out on third down it's getting the fourth down as well i think i need in this game where it's going to be an upset anywhere you're going to have

to hope the defense makes turnovers be aggressive like not on fourth down why don't we call those fourth down plays on first and second down a couple times well that's the thing about brice i do feel like he's a very hard guy to evaluate in general, but I do think the public perception of him is off because if you put the highlight reel up of his best throws of the season, it's maybe not at Stafford level. I'm not going to go there, but it's pretty high up there. And I think that is the type of offense you're going to have to do some time. Then again, in the first game, they did move the ball enough. They won a ball control type of game where there weren't a lot of possessions. And they did it by preventing this Rams pass rush from ever getting to him.

And I do think that's a big matchup here. The Panthers offensive line pass protecting is solid. But I was a little surprised. Like only two quarterback hits, no sacks in that first game. A lot of that is just getting rid of the ball. But I do fine with the Rams pass rush. Like, they're great individually. Kobe Turner and Jared Verse and certainly Byron Young.

But there are some weeks where they leave me a little wanting. Like if you're going to be great, here we are. We're arriving to the playoffs as a group. Like, I just want to see them at their very best because I do find them, maybe I'm wrong, but just like a little inconsistent in terms of their best play on a week-to-week basis. I think you're right with that. They're more of like a second surge power rush base group, so it's walking back to the quarterback unless versus goes absolutely, you know, maniacal and just starts detonating people in the pocket.

So you'll get week to weeks where some guys can just absorb all the power. And if you don't have that like crazy flash speed off the ball, you're not going to be able to disrupt people every single week. And I think that is where the Panthers group is at their best is they are just big lumbering, powerful guys, why they can knock people off the ball in the run game and they can hold up against power and passports. It's when there's like real shock and or speed, depending on the talent level of the player, where they get themselves in a binder. So that is, I think, a pretty fair match of for the Panthers there. I do agree with Patrick on how Bryce should be used. It's whether Dave Canales has the trust or not in a giant game

back in the playoffs. They are completely at their best. When they go empty, it's all in Bryce's hands and he can play point guard and then drive the ball down the field. That's always where he's been productive from college to the NFL. If you look at any of the data, since he's been in the league, the most efficient explosive plays in football come when Bryce Young is in an empty set.

They have often gone away from that when it's a crunch time game against good teams. And I think we'll know it in the first two drives whether Canales feels his guys got it or not. And if they tried to hide Bryce Young, I think that's when they will get themselves in trouble. They just got to go all in with the chips. It's like, let's bet on Bryce.

Let's bet on turnovers. And if we get, you know, whacked by 30, we get wiped by 30. Yeah, and those are the options. What it feels like, it's either they get, absolutely run out of the stadium while having a chance to win and being aggressive or they can

try to slow the game the game's already going to be slow like they're not a generationally bad run defense like they were a season ago they're still giving up for for almost four and a half yards per carry yeah and we saw the way that the buccaneers were able to play the second half in that game where it's like baker mayfield wasn't even involved in the proceedings essentially they were able to run the ball and the the window for success for carolina gets so thin because like the number of possessions is always low. Right. They can't get off the field.

It's also, but just because they can't run the ball. And I'm going to stop talking about their running game. Just it really, I think, is a problem for them spiritually moving forward, coming off this season where they should feel good that their entire point of this team build, the offensive line, has, and their running backs have really let them down, that they are bottom two in success rate and EPA per play since week 10. This is not a small sample. size. It's half the season. And that is the way I think that you want to beat the Rams. I think flipping to the Rams in terms of their offense, you probably get Terence Ferguson back this week. And maybe that's not the hugest deal in the world. But you do get Devante Adams back this week. Your beloved, Ali, who with all three tight ends that they like to use, we actually

haven't seen like Higbee, Ferguson, and Parkinson altogether. It's very athletic. I think Higbee has made a difference returning to their lineup in the last few weeks. I mean, they love them some Tyler Higby. So it gives them kind of every option that they would want offensively. Where do you think they attack? How do you think they attack in terms of the passing game? In whichever way they please. I think it could be pretty brutal for the Panthers.

The Panthers, to their credit, tried to draw up a bespoke game plan that was completely counterintuitive, which is like to be a theme, I think, of these teams who've played each other already this season, and when they met earlier in the year and it just wasn't effective. I mean, Matt Staff had made, I think, two of his best throws the season this game and then just missed some layups that he's not missed all season.

Then he had the dodgy turnovers, which is so unliked him. But there were wide open opportunities everywhere. And I just don't think the Panthers have any kind of like schematic curveball they could throw away that would freak out Matthew Stavid and they certainly don't have the man-to-man talent just go toe-to-to-to-to,

whether the 13th person, where the McVeigh chooses to spread it out and more receivers on the field. So I just think it could be the Panthers in a blender throughout the game. it's a rare opportunity for a team playing the Rams that at least in some aspects personnel-wise between Mike Jackson and J.C. Horn, they have a chance. I feel like they have a better chance, oddly enough, against Devante and Puka than they

do against the tight ends in the run game, where it's any litany of options that McVeigh has to really take advantage of a defense that's struggling. Yeah, and the last thing I have in the Rams is just, I like this John McVeigh after getting fourth down religion. And I really think it could possibly be the difference of them going all the way. Like just these little margins that he is not afraid in the first game against the Panthers reminding me of it when I went back to look like he is so not afraid to run on third and medium lion style and then go for it on fourth down, which in this game

especially I think it's going to lead to a lot of points. But I think it could end up being a big difference during this entire run. Before we move on though from this game, let's listen to Dave Canales talking about, you know, the knowledge of being such a massive underdog. Are they being disrespectful? Well, while I understand that there's always the favorites and there's always the point spread and all those things, we can't really think about that, you know, and I know that the guys are aware of it. I know that I'm aware of it. I see it on TV.

It doesn't matter. You know, what matters to us is to play our best football. All right. Got to play your best football, win? Not worried about what people are saying, you know, unless the Panthers try extra hard. On Saturday, Ollie, we get an opportunity to watch on Prime. video, Al Michaels and Kirk Herb Street calling a football game in the NFC North. It's actually a wild card game between the Green Bay Packers who are favored by one and a half

on the road against the Chicago Bears team that won at home. These two teams split. They both won when they were playing at home. The overrunner is 45 and a half. Do you see a break in the trend or does the home team win once again? It's really, really difficult to say. And to cop out, the first game was so strange. The second game was so straight.

both teams completely shape-shifted how they played everyone else during the season to play each other. Do you just repeat that again when it's the third go around? I don't fancy my chances allowing Ben Johnson to see two game plans that were kind of completely different

to everything we've done all season, letting him have a third crack at that. So this to me, I think, is the most difficult game of all of them to pick. I agree that, well, there's two. I think this one in the Bills, Jags to me, would be the two. Not that that's a hot take or anything.

But when you say that you thought, the Packers' defense did something different each time they played the Bears than what they did all season. What do you mean by that? I mean that Jeff Hathley's game plan, and I'll just say this, and I hope I'll get in trouble. I thought he was disrespectful to Caleb Williams. If you go and look at the cover zero rate

and completely against trend from Jeff Haffley at Boston College all the way up to the Packers, it was night and day different in terms of the depth of the defense, how much pressure he sent. And the only other time he's done that to that degree with an all-out pressure look is against J.J. McCartner. and Jalen Hutz. So that is what he thinks of Caleb Williams.

And I think if you give Ben Johnson a third go-round with that, and I thought they caught them really well in the first game, that Ben Johnson had built a plan to attack Halfley's traditional defense, halfway throws the curveball, they caught them cold. They just did slightly in the second game, though I don't think quite as well, and just more Caleb played better in spades in that second game. I don't think you can give Ben Johnson that kind of head start in a third go-round. Yeah, and it was the highest blitz rate that Caleb Williams faced

when these two teams played against each other. And overall, it worked. I mean, look, the Bears, I don't know what to think sometimes about their offense, because obviously it's a great running game. Caleb has improved a lot. He's gotten out to QB Island. The throw he made to win this game against the Packers is our throw of the year. And it wouldn't surprise me if he just has some moments that are the difference in this game.

On the other hand, as a total offense, you think about the first half of that Packers game, right? Three points, 71 yards. That was where all the blitzers were coming. then they come on late in that game. In the second game, they had three points at the end of the third quarter. And it was a little bit more about complimentary football and the Packers holding the ball in that game and not quite finishing drives. There was some weird play call.

And then I even think back to last week and I know Ben Johnson kind of said afterwards, well, it wasn't our most complex game plan, which I almost felt like he was making excuses for losing to Dan Campbell again. I mean, they didn't score in the first three quarters of that game. So it's hard for me to like see them as like an elite offense. Lately, they've kind of been in every other week offense. And they have been elite every other week. Like you think that Browns game, they were awesome. You know, the 49ers game, certainly they were awesome.

But I'm not sure if I'm like quite there with trusting the Bears as an offense compared to like, let's say, the Rams or the Patriots or many of the more consistent offenses. Yeah, including like a Philadelphia Eagles team that's also been like spottingly inconsistent. but we've seen the sustained success in the past and you have to go back to those weeks where you go against a 49ers team with no pass rush. Right. That's once again famously given up the most passing completions

in NFL history in a single game Jacobi Reset. Like we get the games of the year. Like I hope we get a rear of that on NFL network. They used to ask, they used to ask me to do that, to dust to do that. I don't think they did last year. I got to see what's going on.

It's an erasure of Greg Rosenthal. And a great game there. but it's a big part of how you can affect this team. But since the Michael Parsons injury, the ability to affect the pass rush. And I know they have to scheme up ways to do it now. It becomes a little more difficult. You're giving Ben Johnson more time now

in terms of what the full limitations of what Hathley has available in terms of options to affect Caleb Williams and where you can look at those first half and say, oh, the bears, I don't know, but you can also look at the second half. Right, right. In the end of those games,

and say when all of the circumstances are available to what the defense is going to present, can they execute they have. Right. And the running game is obviously going to be so big, and that is what you trust in more than anything. If you were guessing who the guys that the game playing is built around, Ali,

you know, I think about the fact that DJ Moore makes that catch, since that moment, and it was very recent, he's only had two catches. You know, it's like he's had 18 yards. And he's not part of the offense that much. And it feels to me like it's a Luther Burden, Colston, Loveland offense. You think you get Romadun's A back potentially this week. He is back at practice.

It does, you know, kind of sound like he's possibly back. Kyler Gordon is also back at practice. They haven't activated him off I are just going through injuries while I'm here. C.J. G.J., the safety might be out, Chauncey Gardner Johnson, for this game. And Zach Tom sounds like he might be back for Green Bay. So a lot of important injury stuff there. But where do you think

like they build the passing game out of in Chicago? Has to be Colston Lovland. And I think DJ Moore doesn't get the ball because he regularly just quits on plays mid-play. And I don't think Ben Johnson, who is like a footballing psychopath, is down with guys just having like a highlight career moment

and giving up on plays as they tried to make the playoffs. What half he did in those first games was not just blitz, but he blitz with two deep safeties. He basically mimicked the Brian Flores defense to go after Caleb Williams. And actually thought Caleb's game

against Minnesota where the stats weren't that great was his best pure quarterback game of the season. If you're going to do that, you just naturally leave. You think about it, there's five or six guys in the rush. There's two guys deep. There's just a big boy in the middle of the field, which is typically where Ben Johnson has most of his success. So I think it all comes down to Colston, Loveland.

If Adunes is available and you have that kind of big body in the slot, that would be really beneficial. And it comes down to Caleb recognizing and picking up what he's seeing, and then just having a quick trigger. And he's going to have a quick trigger to Colston Loveland, and hopefully it's designed up pretty well by Ben Johnson's getting him some pretty easy buckets early in the game. But I think it's Loveland here.

who could decide the game. If you're watching us on YouTube and you see the litany of Caleb highlights where he's out on the edge making plays. I think Manungai, obviously Manangai and Swift having success in the run game early, sets it up where Caleb can be able to get out on the edge, it make plays. And not to limit the amount of options that the Green Bay Packers offense has, but it's tough to see a healthy Jordan love with almost the full complement of offensive. skill players minus the

the massive absence of Tucker craft late in the season against the Bears team that needs to make turnovers to get off the field. Yeah so that's the only way they get off. We haven't seen Jordan Love since that game either. Since he took that, it is really weird to play three times in five weeks.

That's what it is, right? It was 14, week 14, 16 and I guess 19. So three times in six weeks, whatever it is. Spread it out, guys. It's just a very strange way and it's probably annoying for the coaches to happen. But the consistent part of these two games more than anything, Patrick, is like the bear's

defense giving up yards. Like, they're not getting stops. And if you even just look late in the season, that's including the Bears game, the Packers game, they've given up 438 yards per game the last three weeks, whether it's, you know, the Lions or whether it's the Packers here. And look, I'm excited. I kind of wanted Jordan Love on QB Island, but he didn't make it. He got booted off at the last second.

I didn't really, I didn't stand up for it, so I own it. That was my decision. I ultimately, like, he wasn't there the last few weeks of the season, and Caleb Williams had some great moments. But as a Jordan Love fan and thinking about, like, the experience that he has and getting Zach Tom back, and you mentioned the health, like, it is exciting to think about him versus this defense because he has some of the most dramatic pressure, non-pressure splits in the NFL.

And his splits wall pressureed aren't terrible. it's like they're like average but when he's not pressured he's it's him and drake may and Matthew Stafford like he's the like he's right there with the two MVP guys and so if you can protect them which you know usually you can against the bears you're in you have good standing and another reason it's a great matchup because Jordan is a chance taker he will take these chances against the defense that relies on them but can they can they do so in a way that facilitates a pass rush that's not going to have Christian Watson running free in the secondary with no CJ, G.J.

It's, I think, I think there could be a capacity for the score fest here. I like it. This is an exciting game. I'm feeling, I'm leaning Packers a little bit. I know, you know, you're a fan of love. He's coming off the concussion, so that's a little tricky that, you know, he isn't in the flow of the offense right now. But I think it was a huge advantage for them to rest in week 18.

The Bears didn't. and I just think that that could benefit the Bears a lot. Lafleur is, according to some people maybe coaching for his job, I don't really buy that. But what do you think he's going to look at with Dennis Allen in this defense and try to attack? Probably all those crazy pressure totals that you've been talking about for weeks now

that they just send a maniacal amount of pressure, but they don't get home with it. The only saving grace for the Bears pastures, I would say, is their fourth quarter rate really spikes up, which in postseason games when it's tight and it's one score and we've seen them have this comeback after combat, that is a massive difference make when you get down the stretch. You can go find teams that have solid four-man pressure rate figures

throughout the season. I think to cross the championship threshold, you have to check the fourth quarter pass first rate too is how deep does the bench go, how does the staff adjust in the fly? That is the one thing they have in their favor. But with the amount of blitzes, they're sending in Jordan Love's ability against the blitz

and him being a hooper, like Patrick said, he's just going to let the thing fly, and you can then get yourself and just kind of like three or four high variance throw, who's going to come down with it, I'm going to probably bank on Jordan love to win that matchup. It is a fun matchup with those guys in the secondary, though,

because, you know, it's, they have a, like, they are big personalities, including Chauncey Gardner Johnson, but just they have, like, frisky playing personalities for lack of a better words, like Nashon Wright and Tyreek Stevenson and Jalen Johnson, who's maybe not been, like,

full Jalen Johnson since the return. Like, I kind of, if they're going to win, I feel like it's going to be, be back to front. And maybe Kyler Gordon ends up being a huge X factor. I mean, if he's fully healthy, he's the best player in

that secondary. And you could see those playmakers being a big difference in this matchup and ultimately being able to cover what the Packers and what Lafleur throws at them. Yeah, and as much as correct, Kyler Gordon is probably the best individual

blitzer in the league. So if you're looking for what can decide a one possession game, is it going to be a strip sack fumble? Is it going to be Jordan love thinking I can go win a championship on one throw and Kyla Gordon comes screaming into the backfield. If I close my eyes and think about how do the bears win the game, that's probably more of what I picture than then just go and like lockdown for two or three drives to just get off the field. I do like to think like big picture too. It would be it would be crazy, annoying if you're a bear's fan. I mean, you're going to feel good about

this season anyways. But if your season ends on three straight L's and one of them is to the Green Bay Packers. It's not going to be as sweet, you know, as it felt three weeks ago when they're in the one seat. Let's actually listen to Ben Johnson, kind of asked about everything that's happened and changed for this organization. Just like I told those guys after the game, you know, we're mentally prepared to play for five more weeks. And so that's our intent. How do you do that? You go out and you win the first one. And so we're going to come in today and we're going to have a great day today. Meetings, walk-through, short week,

opponent that we know. And we're going to get ready for this one. And we're going to go all out for this game. And we'll worry about the future when that time comes, but now it's not the time to look back and reflect. And I love that. I love the coaching matchup. I do love that both teams are as healthy as they've been,

maybe all season. The only one out of practice right now is Gardner Johnson. Ozzie Tripila, tackle is, is practicing Braxton Jones, who they could decide. He hasn't played almost all season since very early. They could decide to start him at left tackle, but Adunze, Kyler Gordon, they're all there. And that's great news. Like, if the Packers lose, they'll be on what?

Like a four-game losing streak to end the season? Four or five? There are real belief from smart people who are tied in that this LaFleur Packers thing. could possibly come to an end. I tend to believe that like he's trying to get as much leverage whether it's money or whether it's power in the organization

and maybe that's why we're hearing about these things because it would be crazy for... I mean, the crazy part of the coaching cycle is there's a chance here that like the bills lose that the Steelers lose and that the Packers lose and that any one of those three head coaches who are, you know,

great coaches could shake loose. And the Packers is the one that I don't believe. I feel like it's some sort of posturing. I don't know why. Well, yeah. There's the graph, right, on coach danger, and then the conversation related to coach danger, and the conclusion of the contract is where those things intersect,

where there's a whole lot of conversation from people to other people whose job is to provide, you know, whatever side of one conversation is being had to another person. Because this, Matt Liffler would like to be compensated better, probably than ranked 17 in terms of coach compensation, and the Green Bay Packers would probably like him to stay there. That seems to be part of it is that maybe they're a little cheap

with their coaches sometimes. There are also, you know, some whispers about like, you know, with the new president that Goudicunst is maybe kind of elevating and Lefleur doesn't want to be reporting to Goudicunts when they used to. Oh, Pallus Intrig? Yeah, where they used to be separate. I will say this though, Greg. It makes no sense given how good he's,

He authored in my... I agree. That's what I'm saying. 15 years covering the league, he authored the best offense I've seen in my entire time. For him to not already have like a five, seven year contract extension.

To me, is laughable. And I get there's some game management stuff. You can go find a dork out of Harvard to help you with the game management stuff. Do the Andy Reed age over the course of your career. Building an offense is really difficult. He navigated from one era from Rogers to Jordan Love

was instrumental in the play development. And yet, Ed policy has come in there as the president. And it seems like he just wants to change the pack-up way, they spend big infregency, they draft their wide receiver to get the fanfare on the TV show as the host in the draft. And the fact that he has said publicly that I don't like having a lame duck coach, but he won't sign the guy to a contract extension going into the final

year of his deal, makes me think there is a bit more smoke. And I will just point out ever so kindly that the agent of John Harbour, his dad, is the former president of the Green Bay Packers. And we're talking about who is this extra team, who's been calling about Harbour 45 minutes after he's fired and who employs a coach who is sniffing around and taking a look. I'll just connect some very, you know, disparate dots. I would have made a trade four days ago. I know.

Sure. Yeah. Good luck. Honestly, I mean, maybe Matt Lafleur would take that trade too. And I would think the Baltimore Ravens would. So maybe you get your, uh, yeah, your best wishes. The reason of, yeah, I don't buy it is it just doesn't make any sense. I'm with you, Ali. Uh, that is going to be. really fun. That's on Saturday night. Let's take a break and we'll wrap up the NFC with a

banger. The number one slot. This is the number one draft pick is the Sunday afternoon game. And so 49ers Eagles is apparently that game this year. Back on NFL Daily. Big game Sunday afternoon. Big playoffs ahead for the the man calling the game, Tom Brady. Oh. You know, I heard I'm a big, breaking news. I'm a big fan of Craig Horlebeck, who I did the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, very talented as on the mic, as a producer, over at the Ringer.

But he's still giving Tom Brady grief about, you know, the quality of his broadcasting. I think he needs to update his take because I think Tom Brady has improved a lot, and I think he's going to prove it with this playoff run. Yes. I agree, Greg Rosenthal, especially fresh off with the game on Saturday. Saturday night. The San Francisco 49ers on the road at the Philadelphia Eagles who are favored by four and a half points. The over under is 44 and a half. It is a rematch of the NFC championship game a couple of years ago. Brock Purdy tears his UCL. He's practicing throwing left-handed on the sideline. Josh Johnson finishes the game. The Philadelphia Eagles go to the Super Bowl, lose to the Chiefs, and now it's time for revenge. Kevin Burkhart, the aforementioned Tom Brady on the call. Who wins the football game, Greg? I mean, I'm going to Eagles. Certainly, this, you know, in the middle of the week, we don't even know if Trent Williams is going to play. That's massive. He did not practice on Wednesday. Ricky Pearsall did not either, which I think is a significant injury. Pierceall sounds less likely to play than Trent Williams. But that was one of the biggest issues with the 49ers last week against Seattle. The left side of their offensive line. Now I forget who's the guard. Burford. the two of them, it was like you hurt two positions by losing Trent Williams because you go from

like a first ballot Hall of Famer to a sub, you know, below level starter at left tackle. And then the left guard spot looks worse too. And you think about that matchup against Jalen Carter and against Jalen Phillips. And it's great that they got them some rest last week. And that just, it feels like no matter how you look at this game, I just feel like it's going to take something special from Purdy. I think he's capable of doing something special. But without Trent Williams, it's going to be like another level of how special it would

have to be. Yeah, and I think not just special from Purdy, but special from Shannon. And this is one of those ones way. If he wins this thing, if Williams is out and you go through Ayu combosa and personal, you should just give him a gold jacket walking up the field and you can coach with it through the rest of the playoffs. Because he's going to have to scheme receivers open against that secondary and washing out eligibles because you've got to try and bail out for the fact that the left side of his

line is imploding on every other rep. So it just feels like too tall of a task for as poor as the Eagles offense is. It's still, I think, a slight advantage over the Niners' defense. And then it just becomes down, whether it becomes, I think, a rock fight or a track meet. If the Niners can move the ball effectively, and I think Kalashana can do anything, but this is about as tall a task as he will have had against that group with what he's having to roll out there with, then I think the Niners have a chance. If they can get to even 28 points, they maybe have a chance, but I still think that's a tall order of what's going on with the injuries. I think the only chance is to take advantage of the run game off tackle where

they haven't been able to have that success here recently because what Vic Fangio and the Eagles can do where Cooper DeGine has been deployed right around that spot 10 yards around the line of scrimmage just off the edge of the tackles where it's like, okay, well, what's our, what's our CMC plan? You have to have a CMC plan so the 49ers aren't getting four and a half yards every single time Brock Purdy drops back. I think the Eagles, as well as, oddly enough, the Seattle Seahawks are the two teams best position to do that, and the 49ers

are having to play them in back-to-back games, and then I don't think the past rush is going to be able to bother Jalen Hertz, because I don't think they can bother anything. Right. I just, it was an unfortunate way how it had to end. They obviously had to play last week. It was such a big game. I don't

want to, like, overreact to that Seahawks game, but it could be possible that this team runs out of gas at the that was their second straight short week against the Seahawks and so that won't be the case this time they'll have an extra day in theory of rest but having to play these two

physical teams in back to back weeks that there is a recipe of just the Eagles bodying them on defense which I think would be scary and it's as healthy as the Eagles defense has really been all season long so

I'm sure Vic Fangio is ready to forget about putting Kyle Shanahan with a gold jacket off the field. I don't know if Vic has already earned it in your mind, Ollie, but like let's get some coordinators into the Hall of Fame. Vic Vanjou would be close to the top of the list. Oh, yeah, my

own personal shrine of coordinators I have at home. Vic has his own room in that. I think Vic is going to be fascinated in this game. When he plays Kyle Shannon, he blitzes a lot more than he traditionally does, I think to wash the back out of the equation. So if you just start running through, how are we going to prevent the fact we've lost Trent Williams

for the game if he doesn't play or if he's limited in some way. If you're able to wash Christian McCaffrey out because he has to stay in to protect or they've got to start messing around with, we'll keep a tie tendon, we'll put an extra tackle on the field and we'll chip that way. It just starts becoming a nightmare. Who do actually throw the ball to? And then with Purdy, I think he's been incredible since his return. He's being a much better playmaker, I think, than he's being at any point during his career. He's not taking sacks in a way he hasn't done throughout most of his career. But the turnover rate and the turnover worthy play rate has shot up in a different way. And they just have to play the cleanest of all

games and hope you can just rally to the ball and Jalen Hertz has brain fart after brain fart and they can tackle because the NADS cannot tackle and it is a pretty fortunate thing for them. The way the Eagles office design doesn't give a lot of yak opportunities but they have to be able to finally tackle and hope that Jalen Hertz brains farts the game away.

Yeah, I did see a stat that from next gen stats, I believe that the Eagles ran the second highest amount of hitch routes just like coming back to the ball of any team in the NGS era. It was the It was the Justin Fields, Bears, I think, were a team that was on that list as number one.

Yeah, Kyle Shanan's just, look, you're going to have to manage the game really well. And I, to get just like big picture, I do think Brock Purdy could have a moment because he's not quite at the, at the like Herbert, Drake May, Stafford level right now, but he's, he's not far below it where like you could see him carrying the team in a way that even he wasn't able to do a couple years ago when he nearly won the Super Bowl. We also got to wonder, like if playoff Jalen Hertz comes out, that's the hope for all Eagles fans. Let's actually listen to Nick Siriana, kind of talk about how this Eagles team finally got

back to where they wanted to be. They got a home game. They're in the playoffs and they can try to put all the drama of the regular season behind them. I mean, we were here in this spot because you want to run it back and you want to play and compete again as part of the reason why you're here I mean that's any game

I don't like if I'm playing sorry with my kids and I win I want to play again and go again so I don't let them win that often but sometimes I do but but yeah that's that I think that's just the competitive nature

of and why you know there's a reason that the people are in this building that are in this building because they have that that hunger I mean they might be watching that press conference and then you know that is letting them win there is a world that um what were you going to say about the sorry well um i was imagining because i'm sure people

are going to ask jalen hurts uh the the consummate competitor yeah in terms of quotes uh how he feels and i thought about before the show when i heard that uh sound how jalen might react and he would say if our children are allowed to win it's because we've already won he's already he's got he's got a quote for every situation and um you know he is the jordan brand ambassador and part of the myth if it even, it's not a myth, part of the story

of Jalen Hertz and I guess this Eagles team is that Jalen Hertz has played his best in Super Bowls maybe not always in the Wildcar round for what it's worth

but it has played his very best in the playoffs. There is a world and I think this is the perfect matchup for them like this or the Bears would have been perfect for them. There is a world

where they just show up in the playoffs and they're freaking awesome because they have awesome players and specifically the way that they could get back to just looking like a team that's going to go win the

Super Bowl is to have some favorable matchups for the offense and get on a roll, start feeling a little more confident and realize like, oh yeah, we have A.J. Brown and DeVante Smith, and this is the perfect matchup to possibly do that and put up 35 points. You would need to get that cohesion where everybody's on the same page about

how they're going to attack a team. The thing that I'll remember about the 2024 Eagles is that moment in the Super Bowl where they want to run the specific call. Jalen's waiting for it. And Siriani calls it and they know that once they execute it they're going to throw a touchdown

to DeVantz Smith and they're able to do that where I think they all have the confidence that they can execute there but I don't know if they're all currently agreeing on how they're going to go about that but and I would hope that you know all those hitches are just side adjustments and you know it's what the defense is doing because

they have that talent but a lot of it feels very familiar very predictable and it's it's been the overall critique and not that they need to go out and try a whole bunch of stuff and do a whole bunch of stuff. I would just like to see them execute to the way that they have in the past because we know we can do it like with this group of players

can execute. The problem they have is that I think as Patrick alluded to me, I think they are unified in what they want it to look like and it just stinks. I think it is all the hit routes, the go routes. Everything is a return to the quarterback route structure so Jalen Hertz gets the big target. I think the receivers as we have kind of seen

are probably upset with that with like a little bit more play design in there. But the idea of them getting hot in the playoffs, I think boils down to, well, Kevin Petulow is still there. The offensive line is nowhere near the same as when he had the two best games of his life, Jalen Hurds in the Super Bowl. So that that to me is the major differentiating factor. And then even the defensively, I think this idea like the pastures come alive, those guys run so hot and cold week to week.

And yes, they have dominant one-on-one players when they turn up and play at their best. But the four-man passers still has not been through the final five, six weeks of the season. Anywhere near the level, they should be with their talent. They're still behind the bears, the Titans, the Bengals, and just straight four-man pass rush since week 12 of the season. That is nowhere near where they should be out if you just lined up who they have what-on-one. And they could just turn it on for the playoffs defensively.

I believe that that's possible. But I just don't see some magical formula where Kevin Petulah is suddenly in his bag. And Jalen Hertz is rolling around and making plays in the scramble drill like he's done in the Super Bowl. No, it's just the offensive line specifically playing better somehow. And that's probably unrealistic to happen. Against this opponent. I don't know.

Right. Lane Johnson is very questionable. for this game. They sounded as a team pretty optimistic, but it's a hamstring injury. It's a serious injury. And then Brian Baldinger,

who literally works out at Lane Johnson's house on Tuesday on his show, said like he doesn't, he kind of said he didn't think Lane Johnson was going to play, which, who knows? He was at practice for what it's worth on Wednesday. So he's doing something at practice,

but I don't think they really know if Lane Johnson's going to play, what kind of Lane Johnson. It's going to be. and in my head, they improved their running game down the stretch. But then when you look at it, it was really just like a Raiders game and a commander's game and like one big run at that Chargers game that I went to.

And even in the Bills game with it, they're trying to win. Like that, I don't know if we're feeling much better about Sequin Barclay and the running game going into the playoffs. Probably the thing you feel better about is like the linebackers for the 49ers right now. are literally coming off the couch. Like Eric Kendricks is probably starting in this game. We don't know if De Winters is going to be available, but they lost another linebacker.

And so then they signed Kaiser White, an old favorite, but wasn't in the league until a week ago. And so if they had a good play caller, they would just circle, Ali, those linebackers, and they would figure out how to take advantage. But I'm not really sure that Jalen Hertz is thrown to the middle of the field.

I'm not really sure they can take advantage in the running game enough. but that's a pretty big weakness for San Francisco. Yeah, and they can't tackle anyway, as I alluded to all three levels. So really, it should be, can we just get the ball to the middle of the field? Can we get the ball to Sequin in space and we'll just take over from there? I mean, the idea of not just throwing the ball, little crosses the Vaughnter Smith and letting him take it to the house and beat two guys. That should just be the number one play in the game plan.

And yet it's probably still going to be a nauseating amount of like hitches outside the numbers where all that stuff becomes quickly irrelevant. So I'm prepared to be very frustrated as the Eagles put up to 30. my numbing way at the end of this game. Yeah, I feel mostly the same, but I feel pretty good about the Eagles. I think I want to take the Eagles and the points, take them to cover.

Yeah. Just say, would like the 49ers defense, and I know Robert Sal has accomplished a lot considering the circumstances, just talent-wise, things leading birds there. On to Sunday at 1 p.m., Greg?

That's right. All right, the Buffalo Bills. One and a half point favorite, Solie, over the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were so hot down the stretch. The over under is 51 and a half. Games on CBS. It is Jim and Tony on the call.

Are the Jacksonville Jaguars, Ali, being disrespected by this line. I think they are being disrespected by the line. I do think whoever wins this game will go to the Super Bowl. That's my whole AFC team comes out of this. We'll do it because it'll even mean the bills have got a little bit more in them and some of the second half production has made its way over somehow into the first half of games.

they never win on the road in the playoffs. So that'll be McDermott getting over some kind of thing if they're able to do it here. And I think this Jags team is an absolute wagon. And if you took the decals off, this would not be anywhere near a one point spread. It would be six or seven or something like that. But because of the Josh Allen factor,

you've got to factor that in too, obviously. But I just think the Jags are a significantly better team all the way around. I tend to agree that it's just, well, it's the bills. Well, it's Josh Allen. And actually the line for what it's worth, I think started even or even one for Jacksonville. And so the public is going for Buffalo. And as you like to say, Patrick,

it's just based on getting as many people to bet as possible. I've infected Greg. But they also, they don't want to be wrong, but maybe they're seeing the money's all going on Buffalo. And they feel good about that. Right. And that's, I, like to me, the Jaguars should be, you know,

at least two, three point favorites. Plus they're at home. You're thinking of the, different ways that the bills can win. And I think this is the toughest, one of the toughest games to pick. And I think you look a little below the hood at the numbers of the Jags defense, which has been outstanding. Like, their third overall in EPA per play allowed on defense, their DVOA is all great. The strength, the schedule has been, been great. For what it's worth, they're 19th against heavy personnel. So that's either with two or three

tight ends on the field that, I don't know if that is assigned, because they're kind of a lighter weight defense that it doesn't hold up as well, they're not as versatile. I'm not smart enough to know, but that is something that the bills should be able to lean into. Dalton Kincaid was one of the few bills who played the entire game just about last week, and he looked good. They wanted to get him back and fresh. You got Dawson Knox. You got our guy, Haas, and I think they can go heavy, and I think the running game can work out of that. and certainly Josh Allen and using the tight ends and James Cook in the passing game. Ty Johnson was out of practice on Wednesday, which is interesting.

But that to me is the recipe. Can the bills offensively kind of overpower the Jaguars a little bit and make it a high scoring game, but make it like a physical high scoring game? And that's the difficult needle to thread where you want this physical game where you've got seven tight ends on the field and Josh Allen's having all these runs and James Cook's running, but you're trying to get up to 35 points because the Jags, who have struggled to run the ball? Well, what can cure a rushing attack like the 2025 Buffalo Bills rush defense?

And so I think ETN's going to have a solid game on the ground. And I think the pass rush where you have, it's, I mean, I probably say it too much. People are almost as sick of hearing it as they are about lines being to spur action. But if you have athletes at Edge that are gifted enough to where Josh Allen can't completely disregard them and run away from them, Like they're not even there. And I think between these two, where Walker has been so much better, especially against the run, where I know against heavy personnel, the numbers look a certain way,

but that's the entire season and it's different context where this is a particular, one particular game that I think the Jags have at home where I may be more confident in this game being in favor of the Jags than I am in any other game. Wow. More than the Rams Chargers? I mean, Rams Panthers. They beat the Rams at that state.

But at that level. That is amazing. I love the point Patrick made about the heavy personnel stuff because that's heavy personnel against the rest of the league and not Josh Heinz Allen and Trayvon Walker as your heavy edge defenders. The way the Jax fit the run, they are just absolutely wild, the way they can come down and just brain people from light to personnel groupings. And I just have this sense of, are we really going to go through a Bills game

where their decision making is the way to attack the Jags is just throw the ball on the perimeter. We don't like our primitive targets. We're benching Keon Coleman all the time. So you will just get as heavy and. condense as possible, hand the ball off all a time against a world class run defense. And then what? Josh Allen has

three third downs to try and play here a ball to decide the game. I just feel like we've seen them do that so consistently that I'm not willing to buy in that it'll be so different this go around. And so if the Jags can just even hold that neutral, which is a strength that there's obviously running the balls, the strength of the bills too, I do lean slightly that

the Jags can stone the thing more so than the bills can push them off the ball. And then if you get into third and long against this Jags' defense, even with Josh Allen, obviously you always want to side with Josh Allen, but I would just give the edge ever so slight to the Jags there, too, because the receiving cool. Yeah, Jordan Lewis is not coming back. He is out for the season.

He was playing really well as a slot corner and had that injury late December. So it's Jerry and Jones. I don't know if he's a guy to pick on. He's actually, to my eye, played pretty well, and I don't think there's a lot of areas to pick on. Maybe it's some of the secondary depth

for Jacksonville, but again, that's more on the outside where Buffalo doesn't really have the horses to take advantage. Josh Allen's taking a lot of sacks this year more than ever in his career. So it could be a big Josh Allen sacking Josh Allen moment,

which he also had like five years ago, like we actually, we went through this all before. But it could be a really big moment for kind of America to realize how special this duo is because Heinz Allen, he started off well this season,

but man, he finished great. And Trayvon Walker also was outstanding down the stretch. and I think people are going to see those two guys and see Devin Lloyd and have a chance to realize, like, yeah, they're really special. Like, I, the Jaguars might be the favorite in the AFC. It's hard for me to pick a favorite,

but I agree with you in terms of like taking the decals off the jerseys, they might be the favorites. Yeah, I think the problem for the Jags event is they get in the vicinity of people a lot, they bother people, they don't always finish the deal. And this is a game where you've got to get Josh Allen on the floor if you're going to try and knock them off in a playoff game. And if there's anyone who is less,

unbothered by just guys being around and it being a muddy pocket and having to stick one arm out and throw someone off and go make a throw. It's obviously Josh Allen. So I would like to see Heinz Allen have an excellent game where even if there's a limited pressure rate, you would almost take away like, we'll take away 10 of the pressures if we can get even one or two of the sacks. We just got to find a way to get off the field and not have Josh Allen extend drives. Yeah, Sean McDermott was interesting for a few reasons in his press conference, but this obviously a big moment. The dumbest take in sports media this week is how like the bills have no excuse now but to make the Super Bowl or win the Super Bowl now because Burrow and Lamar Jackson

and I'm like, no, they're underdogs this week. What are you talking about? Like there is an excuse. They have a shot. I'm with Ali. If they could get past this game, like they have as good a chances as anyone to make it. And yeah, you could look at experience a couple ways. There's a lot of older players on this Bill's team. But they have been together a while. I think that continuity overall is a bonus. This is McDermott on their playoff experience. The experience is I've been here, we've been here,

and so that comes with, I guess it brings some level of, call it seasoning. And you would hope poise and composure as we prepare this week and go through. through our process. I look at when I think about their continuity and you think about the guys

that they're going to need to step up this week. It's like it's Epinessa and it's Rousseau and it's Joey Bosa who hasn't been there a while but he obviously a veteran player.

We don't like they have some real old, old guard guys out there. Milano and Jordan Poyer and it's those guys stepping up but more than anything it's this offensive line which has been together like untouched for three seasons

I think now. Both guards are our free agents this year, maybe not quite as good this year as previous years, but still really good. And if I'm thinking of like a route for them to win, it's like, it's a group that's been together forever, they could just be the best offensive line in the league for a month. Go play like that. That's a pretty great recipe.

If you have the best offensive line in the league or one of them with Josh Allen and James Cook, like that can win any football game. Yes, they can absolutely do it. And it's not like to discredit the Buffalo Bills. and the players that they have and again they have that experience because they have talent and the talent is what has them in the playoffs

consistently and that's what experience it highlights the continuation of sustained success for a lot of these guys even guys where the bills have decided to part ways with them and then they realize hey maybe this was actually the best option for all of us and glad to see guys like Tradavius White

where we thought it was over back playing huge plays for the Although, you know, his status in this game might be really important. He is playing, but they are not deep at cornerback. And I noticed Sean McDermott say a couple interesting things in his presser this week. First of all, he noted how they only had three active cornerbacks for that week 18 game because the team was so thin at cornerback. They didn't have the normal amount that they have on the roster, which felt like,

hmm, was that like an indirect shot at the Darius Slay trade and how the team was built? And then he mentioned his absolute love for how great Jacobi Byers is, how underrated Jacobi Myers, what a great acquisition Jacobi Myers is. And I don't know, I couldn't help like putting one in one and one together and thinking like, we got Brandon Cooks and we got Darius Lay who retired. And meanwhile, you know, this team has Jacoby Myers and my defense is going to have to deal with the force of nature that is second half, Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, I don't really know what this experience is that he's talking about. They're 0 and 5 on the road in the playoffs.

I don't, with the head coach, what is the great experience? From what I understand, they've had heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss. Three of them in Arrowhead, to be fair, like at the peak of Mahomes. And the others were kind of like Tyrod Taylor

and early Josh Allen. But fair enough, fair enough. Yeah, and heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss. I think the experience matters when you go to a Super Bowl and you've got to deal with the two weeks off. Otherwise, it's not like the NBA where the game changes dramatically dramatically in the playoffs

outside of like the blitz rates and stuff change like that ever so slight. but it's not so discreet as it is if you're playing in the NBA or something like that. So I'd rather just have the better roster and I think that the answers he's giving on the second half of that where he's talking about Jacob Myers

is indicating he thinks he doesn't have the horses the Jagu's coming with. It's the ability to make plays in space that has been the problem for the Buffalo Bill's defense like season long and then I'm thinking about ETN out in space Parker Washington where you know especially the offense

changes so much when Britain Strange comes back and then there's just so much talent and so much space for them to cover where it's like, all right, Josh, here you go. Get out there and do it. Like smash yourself into oblivion for four quarters and give us a chance to win. Do you think McDermott's got it in, Ollie, to have a great designer game plan with the roster that he has that does confuse Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence. It's a great coaching matchup when the Jaguards have the ball. It is a great coaching match, but I think he's been unbelievable this season at just seeing in-game.

And so if it's tight in the fourth quarter, he might have a couple of goodies up the sleeve to maybe catch Trevor Lawrence with one. I think if they, Jags jump out to an early lead, he's in deep trouble. They just have terrible team speed. They have no speed at the second level, no speed at the third level. Again, talking about their experience, a lot of those experience guys are pretty much

fried at this point, frankly, and the guys who should be the peak powers just haven't been playing all that well. So if it's an early league for the Jags, I think they are in massive, massive trouble. If they can just keep it tight going into the fourth quarter. Their fourth quarter pressure rate is absolutely through the roof compared to the rest league. And a lot of that is designed stuff rather than just having one-on-one killers all the way up front. Yeah, you know who they could use in this

game is Ed Oliver, who, you know, that he's sort of in that prime. And they're lacking that. You gave me an idea just now in terms of that team speed that I'm going to be using on game day view later this week. Oh. And it's whatever Brian Thomas Jr.'s number is this week. Let's get out. Let's have a two for 89 Brian Thomas Jr. game and whoever that friend that you met on the golf course, that was a big fan of game debut this week. We'll see me pick that game. How about Patrick Claibon getting recognized in the wild? Yeah. You work with Greg

Wilson. No. That's how the conversation. Let's take one final break and we'll wrap up. I think the best games of the week are actually in the AFC. We'll finish there, a few. Back on NFL Daily. It's been a while since I experienced what Patrick did the other night and that I will experience on Sunday night, which is watch my team in the playoffs and then immediately go into recording.

a show. It'll be me, you, and Nick Shook taping a recap of the Sunday games because they gave Sunday night football to Chargers Patriots. This is such a, the AFC is, I love the AFC matchups, but these last two Bill's Jags and Chargers Patriots are my favorite games of the week. And hopefully, Greg, a better result for you, perhaps. Although I know, maybe a little house divided situation with the with the folks here in LA or that?

I mean, I'll be happy. I'll be happy for Justin Herbert to get a big time win and watch them go on their journey. And my allegiance will change if they win that. Immediate jersey swap. As we discussed the Los Angeles Chargers, yes, on the road at the New England Patriot, two or three and a half point favorites.

The over under is 46 and a half. It is Mike Torrico and Chris Collinsworth, who called a heck of a game last week in that matchup between the Ravens and the Steelers, a potential good one here, Greg, where you wonder if the matchup of a defense that hasn't really shown

a lot of ability to affect a quarterback against the offensive line and a team that have allowed their quarterback to be very affected here in 2025. Yeah. Dardy on that side of the ball, like, I'm really curious if Jamari Sawyer is playing, not a big name, but he stabilized

their left tackle position at just a normal rate and he's like their third left tackle, but Once you got down to fourth and fifth, it's just a total disaster. And the Patriots are getting healthy at the right time. They had Milton Williams back last week. It sounds like they will get Harold Landry back this week. They also could get Tonga back, who has been a good run stopper and just like pocket pusher in the middle of their defensive line.

It makes a huge difference. Like Harold Landry is another injury that kind of has gotten slept on. And so if you can get after Justin Herbert, like that's great. but these two quarterbacks have kind of proven all year that they can get it done when they're under pressure. And if I'm the Chargers, like this was the matchup I wanted because it's the pass rush I'm least afraid of

even if everyone is healthy. And like I think, I think Justin Herbert and the passing game and the Chargers offense is just going to be fine. I do not think this is like a difference making Patriots defense. Now, my only fair is that Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman pull up like the run game. film of the Patriots over the past 10 weeks

this season, which has just been hemorrhaging stuff against the run to side. That is the path forward. We'll get Justin to third and manageable and it ends up being third and long and it just becomes a nightmare evening where he's running for his life. I think you just have to go in and say, we're putting the ball in Justin's hands like 35, 40 times. We're either going to knock

this team off on the road or not and we're going to go down with Justin just trying to dice them up. And I think that's the best opportunities to spread the Patriots out as much as possible. Try and pick on the corners who haven't played as well to me as the front has played. And then that would be the path they would have to success. Yeah, it's been a strange Christian Gundalus season. I got some pushback from people online. They're like, oh, you don't

have your guy on all pro. And it was like, I didn't even really think about it. And like, not that he's been bad, but they, I just don't think he's been at the level that he's been at in previous years. And this, like, this Chargers team has explosive players. Like, I can absolutely see in my mind's eye, Quentin, Quentin Johnson, just dusting Carlton Davis for a long touchdown. And Herbert making really great third down plays and picking on them over the middle of the field, whether it's to Gadsden or Allen or McConkey.

And it's just being kind of a great showcase for like two of the best couple of quarterbacks in the entire NFL. I was really surprised to hear last week Greg Olson calling the game and he was just so complimentary of what a great defense the Patriots are. And I do think they're playing better now maybe overall, but they're not a great defense to me. I think they have a lot of holes.

And in terms of the holes, how they can patch those up, because it was interesting watching and looking back at Mike Frable's availability from today, we're having this conversation on Wednesday, and there was discussion about the problems that Greg Roman has created for him in the past, when a lot of those problems were really just Lamar Jackson. In terms of, I don't know that the scheme that Greg Roman is cooking up is presenting Mike Vrable with a whole bunch of things that's going to keep them up. It's the players.

and the way that at times the offense can put Justin Herbert in a position to be successful. A lot of that, a lot of that's just 10, being 10, but the opportunity for him, I think, to not play last week

is the reason that you can have some cause for positivity and belief they can go in here and pull off this upset because it's a lot like the game that the Buffalo Bills are going to have. It's the quarterback, despite all the all of the circumstances against them

going up against another team that is more on the same page on offense, is more consistent on offense. They're able to do what they do, which is get buckets consistently in making explosive plays where that's been a thing all season, and I don't care what the schedule says. If it's that easy, everybody would do it. Right. The one thing I'll say on the

Lamar Jackson point is Mike Frable's head does melt down against scrambling quarterbacks. I think it like offends his sensibility seeing a guy just like run around the arc and take off for eight yards and he starts adding more and more bodies to the line of scrimmage and then he starts getting ripped over the head and you can just see his brain kind of be frazzled mid game

and so I think that if the charges really commit to they say Justin Fielbert's scrambling designed run game let's get Brayble in his own head and then we'll open up those one-on-one shots you mentioned to Quinton Johnson and Gadsden and McConkey down the field I think that is the best path forward for them in this game because Rabel really does have a tendency to get frustrated by scrambling

Crambling quarterbacks. And I think about how this season started, Justin Herbert, week one, scrambling, the little sassy slides that he had. And I think of the game I was at against the Eagles and so many other games where his scrambles have made the difference. And these are two of the best, if not the best, scrambling quarterbacks in the league. They are both near the very top in terms of scrambling rushing yards and scrambling passing yards, so they can beat you in structure and they can beat you out of structure.

I just think that the structure overall that Drake May has in terms of the offensive system is superior. And that side of the ball is awesome. Josh McDaniels versus Jesse Minner is great. And kind of the obvious point here is like the Patriots are in explosives led offense and they're going against a team that prevents explosives as good as anyone in the league. You got to think, Ollie, that Josh McDaniels is looking at this Chargers defense. Like, they can be patient.

They have shown they can. But especially using their running backs and tight ends, I think against the Chargers to try to create explosives that way might be the way that the McDaniels tries to zero in in this game. Yeah, unbelievable match. I'm probably going to have to go for a cold shower between quarters to calm myself down with these guys. That is the thing to me is who is going to break the hand first,

who will gamble first? I think that Josh McDonnells will be so willing to be patient and ride it out and if he just has to run the ball constantly and take the checkdowns underneath and then maybe if the game is tight in the fourth quarter, let Drake May go and rip one down the field. I think he'll be so willing to just say this is totally fine with us. We'll take five, six yards to clip and just sustain drives. And Jesse Minstamate some way after you, I'm going to have to roll the dice here and send a house to try and get some pressure on Drake May. I think the only way that happens is if there are no clear out routes. I think if the players are

there, Drake May is wired specifically to play football in this particular way where I think they could call it short all he wants. You got to play you got to play the way that the guys play. I think that would definitely. I will say that Minta doesn't change much to week either and you saw even in the Texans game, a team who lives in like we

sustain drives, we can't really do an awful lot else and we can't even sustain drives that well frankly, but they're able to hit a couple of huge explosive touchdown for us because they know exactly what the defense is going to be in based on the formation. So McDonald's will have a Rolodex dating back 20 years now against the specific look. We know. And they'll probably, I would hope, say to Drake during the week, these are three or four we're going to get too early. Can you just kind of stay on schedule during the early stuff? I'll go create some magic if you need to. Trust me, we'll get you four three point efforts

when you want them. So I think you can get to build that in a little bit more and say, hey, it's the first playoff game. Their offense isn't very good. Let's just stay in the game and not try and throw the thing away early. And, you know, mentors, I feel like been a little more creative since their by week in general, just throw in some fun stuff out there, not, you know, usually not against great, you know, offenses like this, although they had a really nice game against the Cowboys. That, to me, was kind of the prove-it game for them. Since week 10, they are second in the league in terms of EPA per play on defense. You have Khalil Mack, you have Tully, you have O-A, and you're going up against Will Campbell

and Morgan Moses in this offensive line and, you know, trying to get pressure on Drake May and And I really do think it's just him, like, you say he's going to go try to get buckets, but, you know, you don't get that 72% or 74% completion percentage by only going for No, no, not. He's willing to go for it. And I think the difference maybe right now, in terms of my confidence with them, that's different, is I'm way more confident in their running game today than I was at really any point in the season. Remandre Stevenson just had like three of the best, you know, weeks of his life.

and Trayvion Henderson is making these big plays and I think overall the Patriots have quietly kind of evolved into the team that their record says they are whereas they were a little lucky early but I think they've actually just been a better team especially running the ball late and I think they'll be able to be patient

against a Chargers team that likes to you know have not as many guys up front you know stop in the run. Yeah and there's a many different routes to explosives and the Patriots seem to acquire them in every different aspect where they can where I just it's a good football team Greg don't worry no I mean well I should be worried this Chargers team I I do give something to the fact that it's Harbaugh year two it's Herbert Herbert year whatever it is for him that

I think that is an advantage and it is a very like it's it's they have some flaws but it's a very talented Chargers team there's not a team in the AFC field that I don't think the Chargers could beat. Jacksonville might be tough. That was a tough matchup for the first time. But let's say the Chargers win this game. Like, I don't think the Broncos want to see the Chargers next week. It is not a normal 12 seat. It's a 12-win team. It is, but they also have comfortably the worst position group there, maybe one the most important position group in the entire field. And I think the Broncos would be giddy right now, if you told them that was who they got a face when they get to go there on the biggest weakness.

In football, now, Justin Herbert would terrify anyone. They couldn't score a touchdown off the Chargers backups. I got my guy Marlow Wax looking like Fred Warner out there. They didn't have a freaking touchdown last week. They had 12 points on offense. Come on. I understand that. That's a Boenix issue. But is that going to be any better against

other groups? I'm not so sure. Like, I love Jesse Minter. I think every single team in the league looking for a head coach right now should the first call should be to Jesse Minter. But there's still there's the offensive side of the ball and it's so just relying on, can Justin Herbago hero mode and cover up all of our failings. There are some design failings. There's some personnel failings.

Can he make us whole, five, six, seven, 12 plays a game in a postseason against great defenses. Now, this is not a great Patriots defense, but they have significantly more difference makers up from than what the charge will be able to put up to try and stop them. I am going to pick the Patriots in this game, but I might do the cowardly thing on our show where we pick the scores and do what's called threading the needle so that the Chargers, you know, they're closer than three and a half, but the Patriots win. That's kind of where I'm landing. there's nothing cowardly about that it's just like splitting the difference choosing to evaluate relative to Vegas's expectations which are generally generated in order to make the most money that they possibly came uh the final game uh of the weekend how about the Steelers um being home underdogs I feel like they're setting a trap for us you think a trap well I mean the

the whole Tomlin thing I know I usually think these historical records are completely meaningless, but something about them winning 23 straight home Monday night football game spooks me a little bit in the mic time. We'll see if the Houston Texans, a three-point favorite can be ghost busters to Greg's spookiness at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The over-under is 39 and a half.

Yes, it is on Monday night football. So Joe and Troy and Lisa Salters, the entire gang on the worldwide leader there for a great opportunity, Ali, for Aaron Rogers to show that despite what everybody has seen in 2025, he's going to hang in there and attack a really good pass rush. How do you see it go? I see it going him on his back

fairly consistently. High fives all around. Will Anderson and Danil Unter and everyone. I do think the best thing going for them is Aaron Rogers' brain and quick decision making and facing a defense. You know exactly what you're going to see. They play the same stuff down after down over and over again. So having a full week deal with the game plan against that, I think maybe gives them a slight added advantage. Having DK back is obviously instrumental.

The on-off field numbers with DK in the lineup versus him off the lineup are as wild as you'll ever see with any individual players. So there is a path there, I believe. I just think the Steelers defense is not the level it should be take advantage of how poor the Texans offense has been consistent. I think they haven't, I agree. It's by statistics, the worst Tomlin defense.

that's ever made it to the playoffs, which is crazy to think about. But when you think about the other side of the ball, how we started, I do love listening to that beginning of every Mike Tomlin press conference where he just talks about the opposition for 15 straight minutes, trying to just kill the clock. And he did talk about our favorite duo, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Will Anderson and Hunter are simply the most dynamic edge rush tandem in the National Football League in 2025. They got 27 sacks between them.

I think it's 12 for Anderson, 15 for Hunter. They're a formidable group. You can talk about the things that you need to do schematically to minimize them and all of that. It's nothing that they haven't seen. We better stay out of a bunch of one-dimensional passing circumstances because if we're in those circumstances, because if we're in those circumstances, we're going to be in trouble. Wow. Shots fired to T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, I guess, there.

I would include Nick Herbig in that mix, but they only played him 13 snaps last week with T.J. Watt coming off a busted lung. Like, some of the decision-making there kills me. He just, like, Aaron Rogers looks like he's playing a lot better. And then when you sort, and I know they're season-long numbers and stuff, but, like, when you sort, he's still second to last for the season and success rate. ahead of only Cam Ward. And I think, well, is that just because, you know, when he's pressured, it's just at the bottom?

It's like, no, when he's not pressured, it's not that good either. It's still not very good. And yet, they've won four or five games. Like, these are two hot teams. Like, they've won four or five games, and they haven't all been easy opponents. And the Texans have won nine straight. I think Aaron Rogers has actually earned, like, a small benefit of the doubt that he might just pull something, you know, out in this game.

because he has been better down the stretch. Yeah, I mean, he won that game, which is essentially a playoff game with Adam Thielen and Scotty Miller and Calvin Austin. And needing touchdowns multiple times in the fourth quarter to make it happen. Yeah, and you know, we get, you know, all the lack of ability of the Ravens

to generate a pass rush, well, this, but even then, like, we saw the ability to kind of constrictor down the field, six, five-yard completions over and over again, keeping the other team's offense off the field where I don't think that's as much of a priority. I know Houston's been better as the season goes on here, but it's really

about surviving and sustaining drives and being able to get those two or three plays. And Aaron Rogers can definitely do that. Not to demean Rodgers, it's just when they're not able to do that, what does it look like? And I think it could go left rapidly. Yeah, it's got to need to be a big Jaylen Warren and team

MVP, Kenny Gainwell type of game. It is. I still think we'll come down to, Roger, the stage of his craze, getting rid of the ball so much quick than everyone else, in a playoff game, which doesn't look like it's going to be, but could be his last game in the NFL? Is he willing to stand in and just get absolutely rocked three times

to make big time throw? I think he actually might. For a playoff game, he may do. I'm not so sure. If he does, then I think the Steelers do have a chance. I just don't know if the Texans' offense can put together enough sustained drives and can convert in the red zone. They're so poor in the red zone, so predictable in the red zone.

The game will, I think, be open and there for the Steelers, and then it's just, as I said, whether Rogers was willing to stand in. He's not going to be able to move in Crete. He's done it sparingly all season. So is he willing to take one giant shot to the ribs to rip a throw down the field? And I think with a playoff game, legacy stuff on the line, he might be

willing to do it. It's a fair thought that, you know, a guy like Aaron Rogers who is, you know, clearly trying not to get hit. The comp to him was always Tom Brady. And in those like 40 plus, especially 42 plus, playoff runs, Brady had it in Tampa

or at the end of New England. He was a little more willing to take a hit at the very end of the season when it's like when it mattered more and when you can see the finish line. I do think the best hope for the Steelers to win. And this season hasn't been a great reason to believe it could happen.

But looking at the names on the jerseys and their individual talent is just that this Steelers defense balls out that Cam Hayward is his absolute best and Derek Harmon is his absolute best. And T.J. Watt and Highsmith has been awesome lately I definitely have concerns about the secondary, but you think of that group and Herbig

going up against this Texan's offensive line, which is better, but is certainly not great by any means and just thinking that they could have a couple tip passes and a couple negative plays in terms of sacks, and that they dominate against a Texan's offense, which is better but still below average by basically any measurement.

Like they've improved to average, which they're getting pads on the back to, but it's like they're not good. Well, I think there is a risk for the Steelers team to be too aggressive and wind up in a situation like last week where they're, you know, instead of looking at Zay Flowers running away from, they're looking at Nico Collins or Higgins in, you know, any number of ways where if they do try to get too active around the line of scrimmage

and have the guys flying at C.J. Stroud, where we've seen them blow coverages all season long. Like, it's just been a circumstance that the Steelers have not been able to prevent. And I think sometimes that is trying to make plays, you know, that we have Mike Tomlin with his Super Bowl championship that comes on a James Harrison play that James Harrison probably should have never made. Right. Like, they take these chances because they have success with them.

But when it goes wrong, it goes wrong. And fortunately for them, Tyler, Luke misses the kick and they don't have to worry about. Yeah, the Steelers obviously have the personnel and the individual players who could just take over the game. And it's like three drives are just detonated on arrival by Haywood or one. or Herbig or Heistner taking over. But the start I look at to evaluate defensive staff, more than any of the stat,

is third down and three to six. That is a coaching stat. The Steelers are 32nd in the league in E-paper play in those situations, and it is a chasm between them and 31st. And think about the Cowboys and the Bengals and the laughable defenses we have in the league. It is embarrassingly bad how they've been in those situations.

And that is basically where the Texans live. It's like third and three to six, and usually we're not staying on the field. And so for the Steelers to be in that spot. think if you look at some of their run game stuff over the past few weeks, the numbers have trickled up, but if you watch them play, it is really just like a crazy one-off play over and over again from either Highsmith or Hayward. I just don't know if that can sustain throughout a playoff run, even throughout a playoff game. So I lean slightly here towards the

text. Yeah, I do as well. It is funny to think about the history of Tomlin because even the, you know, you think about the Super Bowls. You know, one, he gave up, you know, 30 points to Aaron Rogers. Maybe that's why, you know, all these years later, he's always wanted to have them. And the other one, he gave up two fourth quarter touchdowns and over 400 yards to Kurt Warner. Like, their defense tried to gag that game away. But San Antonio Holmes, maybe the greatest catch in NFL history, saved him.

Some of the numbers with Tomlin are crazy. I'm going to give you guys an open-ended trivia here. Let's see who can win. You might have like a slight delay, so that's a disadvantage for you, Ollie. Mike Tomlin right now has the third longest tenure of any coach without a playoff win. I was at the game that started this losing streak,

which was the 2016 AFC championship. Can you name the other two coaches with longer droughts without a playoff win? Unsula? Nope. I mean, one I thought was going to be really obvious because it's just, it's sort of related here. Jason Garrett? No, no.

I thought you got Tennanty Titans head coach Jason Gary I mean one was in the division here with the Steelers I thought you guys would have had had this with John Hubble no no it was Marvin Lewis Marvin Lewis Marvin Lewis and Jim Mora

with the Colts you know he had that long run but he could never get a playoff win before they finally great so that's a long time it could be who knows if if the 23 street winning streak thing ends, and it's your seventh straight playoff loss.

I don't know if, speaking of it, streaks ending, this is the first time the Texans have ever not played in Westavis. I didn't realize that on the first weekend. They have played in the Saturday afternoon slot eight straight times, so this just might feel uncomfortable to them, and they were

their six and two in those games. Maybe it's D.K. Metcalf. My last question for you, Ollie, is there any concern about your beloved Texans defense over the last month going to throw a couple numbers at you 12th in EPA per play allowed eighth in success rate allowed I know that includes some of that second half backups in against the Colts but overall not quite as dominant the last month of the season and what are you kind of looking for with that D.K. matchup against those great

cornerbacks. Yeah, I think some of that too are the injuries of some of the guys in the secondary playing some games and then kind of back and forth who is available at linebacker two. So if they are all fully healthy, I think they should be okay because they are, it's like the most predictable defense in the league against the most predictable offense in the league and one has superior talent to the other one. I do think that level of predictability, although it is fun to see a team body up and

say this is what we're doing. We're better than everyone in football. I do think that will catch you out towards the end of the season when you just put that much film down against the beat. There are degrees of like, okay, this guy is not quite this good and this elite of a player at this one specific thing. Let's target him in that fashion. So that could be something, particularly if Rogers is running the game himself at the line of scrimmage, I'll be into that more than just like Arthur Smith's game plan.

So that would maybe be the thing. Can they find a way to just get one or two explosives to DK that really matter that converted to touchdowns, either big shot the converts in the red zone or finding him for a touchdown itself. But even then, I just think there's so much more overwhelming talent for the Texans defense than what the Steelers are rolling with. They have, especially late in games, had some trouble making tackles. I know it's a very good defense that they can get into position, but you go all the way back to the Buccaneers game on that final drop for both Bucky Irving and Baker Mayfield making plays in space and a Steelers offense

that gets 65% of its passing yards after the catch. We're tackling DK and team MVP. Thank you for always pointing it out, Greg, since it's happened. Kenneth Gameball, the best running back on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah, forever I'm going to mention 2025 team MVP Kenneth Gainwell for a team that went to the playoffs and won 10 games. Last

thing here, the kicker matchup. I mean, Boswell's not, he's not Chris Boswell anymore and you got my favorite kicker in the league Kaimi Fairbairn, so that could be, that could be where it turned. My apologies to the Steelers for putting the onus on Chris Boswell calling him the best

kicker of the generation. A total downhill, total serial killer. And I love that we're getting Joe and Troy on this call. I think it's going to be their last call of the year. I don't think they get a divisional round game. That's unfortunate.

We are going to have you two gentlemen throughout the playoffs. Of course, Patrick will be back on Sunday. Ali will be joining us next week at a time to be determined. I am really looking forward to this wild card weekend. It's no longer Super Wildcard weekend, by the way.

Did you know that? I didn't notice, but now I am. I think this is now multiple years. We were making fun of Super Wildcard. week in business, they don't use it anymore. It's, everyone just knows. We'll be back in the feed on Friday. Cynthia and I with our picks against the spread.

I'm coming off at 3 in O week. We'll see you then. This is an I-Heart podcast, guaranteed human.