NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 2026 AFC Win Totals Draft with Nick Wright

Episode Date: September 2, 2026

Gregg Rosenthal and FS1's Nick Wright take a look at the AFC win totals and draft the over or unders that they feel most confident in headed into the 2026 NFL season. Both Nick and Gregg have surprisi...ng AFC North picks. Will the Ravens live up to their lofty billing? Will the Patriots repeat in the AFC East? Can you possibly guess the opposite sides Nick and Gregg are on with the Chargers?NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:01:11 Get new episodes to the NFL Report Monday through Friday all season long. Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sycamma, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. Are you ready to dominate your? your fantasy league this season? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL fantasy football show, you're already playing from behind. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make
Starting point is 00:01:43 every move count. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to NFL Daily, where it's time to start putting pen to paper, voice to recorder, I don't know, and actually make some freaking final predictions for this season. And there's no one I would rather do it with than Nick Wright back on the show to do our over-underdraft.
Starting point is 00:02:16 This time, Justin the AFC, Nick Wright, of course, from What's Right on YouTube, check out his podcast and then first things first every day. This is your third show of the day. So I feel special that you Third show of the day. This is, you know, while today, while I was at the deli getting my lunch, I was listening to quarterback island. And I, you know, there's just a lot of what I would call Patrick Mahomes microaggressions going on these days.
Starting point is 00:02:47 Like I heard, I heard the sad fact that you were like, hey, here's the list of quarterback, the one quarterback who's never left the island. the all-time great zero-time all-pro zero-time a fc champion josh allen i'm like wow they kicked Patrick mahomes blew got his knee blown out so they kicked him off the island then i like it just so you know what but i'm glad to be here um you know you are either my favorite or second favorite podcast in the world and it's the only reason i don't like coming on is because now tomorrow I don't have NFL daily to listen to because I'm on here. But I'm here whenever you want me so I can beat you and over-underers like I did last year.
Starting point is 00:03:31 You did. I did. I didn't. Oh, I did? You did. We were terrible. In the three previous years, we were really bad. I had gone 11 and no combined.
Starting point is 00:03:41 I had just my favorite three, my favorite three, and then four the following year. And I'd hit all 11. I got overconfident and we picked eight across the league. Now we're going to just break it up by conferences because I just, I want to get more in.
Starting point is 00:03:53 I went two and six. You went three and five. Well, that's a winner. The difference, unfortunately, was we split on the cowboys, and you won't remember this. I do remember. We did a thing where, like, we split the difference, but then they had a tie or something stupid. It screwed you. But we had a side agreement that we would actually put up the logo for each other's
Starting point is 00:04:20 podcast on each other's show. with all the followers of the White's Right podcast, you know, you were putting more on the line here. So, Eric, if you can do that, you have to put up Nick's podcast logo for just a little bit. That part I did forget. I did forget that we made that bet. Holy moly. And this is probably now also showing on that like NFL Fast channel or whatever.
Starting point is 00:04:44 Not quite yet. We get there next week. But yes, check us out. Subscribe to us on YouTube. You get the first overall pick. Let's not waste any more time. So let's not make it a microaggression. Let's make it a macro belief in the Chiefs.
Starting point is 00:04:56 Come on. Nope. That's not going to be my first overall pick because I have draft strategy. Instead, I'm going to wreck your entire draft board by shocking you. With the first overall pick, I take over 11.5 for the Baltimore Ravens. That's not wrecking my board. It's on my board. It's not in the top four, but it was on there.
Starting point is 00:05:14 I would have taken it today. So listen, the rationale is very simple. I do think the Ravens were over, and Lamar was over John Harbaugh. I also think there is a slight chance that John Harbaugh with the Giants is a little closer to Pete Carroll with the Raiders than anybody would have hoped. And so I think it's Jesse, I love the addition of Jesse Minter. I think that instantly makes the defense better. I think Lamar obviously will be better than he was last year. And you know, you can make an argument that over the last five years, Lamar has quite simply been
Starting point is 00:05:55 the most dominant regular season player in the whole league last year, notwithstanding. I don't think they have an incredibly difficult schedule. And I think they're going to be the number one seed in the AFC and win 13 games. So I have the Baltimore Ravens over 11 and a half with the first pick of the over under aFC draft. I am surprised and I got to admit I could have cheated. scouted your picks. I happened to see your show, you know, the clips being sent out of Broussard.
Starting point is 00:06:25 And some of the predictions you had on Monday of AFCs. I said, I should not watch this. This is unfair to know about. But I would have taken the Ravens. The schedule's doing a lot of work. They play the NFC South out of division. I think people are a little surprised about the over unders, the wind totals for the Bengals and the Ravens specifically. But I'm on the same side of you there. And look, I think Lamar or Patrick Mahomes are the two best options to take if you were picking MVP right now in terms of odds. Wow.
Starting point is 00:06:55 And I think what's been underrated here for the Ravens is the defense is what got John Harbaugh fired. Everyone in the building knew where the outside doesn't seem to that John Harba is a defensive coach. He keeps, you know, these coordinators get a lot of the credit. He's in all those meetings. He's a defensive guy. It's a, I agree with your point overall about Harbaugh about what could happen.
Starting point is 00:07:14 But I think the upgrade coaching wise on defense, and I like their team. talent a little better, especially the depth of their pass rush from Jesse Minner on the defense. All he's got to do is make the defense like a plus defense. And I think then they're going to win this. Yeah, Derek Henry is still going to be great. And it turns out Zay Flowers is Justin Jefferson. Who knew? The Ravens know they paid him like it.
Starting point is 00:07:35 So, I mean, I expect a monster year from him. That's the under the radar most baffling decision of the off season, giving Zayflowers $35 million a year. But that doesn't hurt them this year. So, yeah, I think the Ravens love really good. You've got to look at the fine print. It's out into the future. It was an extension.
Starting point is 00:07:51 At some point, he'll be the 17th highest-paid, highest-paid wide receiver. And Lamar Jackson likes him. He's also, they need him. He's the only guy they have. But I don't want to get stuck on Zavler. I'm going Texans over nine and a half as my team. I know the schedule people say is tough. For what it's worth, FDN Almanac has it as a pretty average schedule.
Starting point is 00:08:11 It looks harder than that to me. I am buying the hype. I'm fueling the hype. I think the offensive line depth is better. I think the offense made strides last year and should be better in year two of the same system. And I think they're going to pair some things down with Nick Cayley was trying to fuse like the Patriots and what Stroud likes to do. The defense just gives them a crazy floor. And more than anything, D'Amico, Nick, has won 10, 10, and 12 in his three years.
Starting point is 00:08:38 He provides a floor. I'm buying this team as a real deal, Super Bowl contender, so I don't care about the schedule over nine and a half for the text. So I am a little, I don't want to say I'm skeptical on Super Bowl contender. I am more confident that they'll be win, that they'll win 10 plus games than I am that they'll be a good postseason team because I am legitimately concerned about C.J. Stroud. I mean, the last time we saw C.J. Stroud in a playoff game, he turned it over four times. And while if you're Josh Allen, that makes you the best player in the league for most
Starting point is 00:09:14 guys, we don't like that. And so I, I do, I think there is potentially really, you know, some scar tissue from that. I just don't know if they need a good offense to win 11 games. And I think that. Are you just trying to make our producer Eric Matt, who's a Bills fan, just need a. No, listen. I mean, listen, I know. He played well in that rave in that Broncos game, by the way, Josh Allen.
Starting point is 00:09:39 I know there were a lot of turnovers, but you made a lot of. See, this is what I'm saying. This is why I end up being considered some. some a whole troll because I'm the because I hear people be like oh yeah Josh Allen the playoff game where he had four turnovers and then was he recognized the only two people in the world who recognized Josh Allen costing that playoff game or me and Josh Allen which is why he was crying after the game and his coach was fired because he was crying after the game I'm like hey that's probably not great everyone else is like best player in the league you know
Starting point is 00:10:12 what he's I just like whining you up and we're not even on sorry Eric listen Eric I truly we'll get to the bills later I'm high on the bills this year kind of um but I don't think the Texans have to have a great offense to win 11 games if they have a good offense I think they'll win 12 games and if they have a very good offense they can win the Super Bowl I totally agree with you on Domingo and the defense and that I think it's like the league average schedule I look at it and I'm like okay so you get the you get the a I'm sorry the NFC east I don't I think that's a brutal draw at all. Your strength of schedule games are really hard because second place got you the Ravens.
Starting point is 00:10:52 And the, I'm sorry, you were going to play the Ravens anyway, but the Chargers and the bills. So that's not great. But yeah, I agree with you on that. So we have had two picks where we agree with each other. I think this will be the first one where I take a team that you would have gone the other way on. But I am a steaming under on a team that in their defense.
Starting point is 00:11:14 fence four years ago was really good for a season under 10 and a half for the Cincinnati Bengals. Oh, I'm on the same side of you. Oh, okay. But it's low. I don't know if I would have had the guts to make it about my eighth pick if we get through eight teams. So I'm glad that you have these stones to do it so early make the case for me. Yeah, they have a really good quarterback.
Starting point is 00:11:44 who you know what a great quarterback who is an injury risk but he's a great quarterback they have a great wide receiver and another really good wide receiver and that's what or what i like about the team end they have a fine how about dexter lawrence i was going to get there they have a fine running back in chase brown dexter lawrence it was an obscene overpay but again that doesn't matter in the short term. He's a really good player, but this was the 30, this was either the worst of the second worst defense in everything last year. Dexter Lawrence and Brian Cook don't fix that. When I look at the Bengals, I'm like, I don't trust their defense as a whole. I don't trust their coaching staff at all. I think they have a bad offensive line. I don't think they're
Starting point is 00:12:32 the type of team that's going to make in-season, you know, massive trade, Howie Roseman style. and everyone is so hung up on the fact that four, five years ago, five years ago, they beat Derek Carr and Ryan Tannihill and then a second half concussed Patrick Mahal. They were good the next year. They were actually better the next year. They were good team the next year. So listen, and so I kid a little bit on that part of it.
Starting point is 00:13:01 But the Bengals, we do this on the TV show all the time. Expect the Bengals to return to contender status. Like the Bengals had, in my opinion, 14 months as a contender from like November of Joe Burrough's second year through his third season. Like and because that second year they started seven and six and then they got hot. They got hot by beating the Chiefs and then got the Super Bowl by beating the Chiefs. Then actually they won 12 games. But that's the only time they've won the division. That's the only time they've won more than 10 games.
Starting point is 00:13:34 and even, you know, the Bengals with Burrow have never had a top five offense, points or yards. Like they, even the years he's been fully healthy. I just, and the one other thing is how this season starts for the Bengals, I feel like we're going to get a lot of emo Joe press conferences. Home Bucks at Texans, at Steelers, home jags. Then you get the Dolphins. Then at Ravens. It feels like they have a real potential to be two,
Starting point is 00:14:04 and four and Burroughs standing up there talking about how, you know, how fun is football anymore, which I hate to see because he is an awesome player. I think the Bengals win eight, nine games. I'm under 10 and a half. I got there in the end, picking them under, despite my initial reaction to the offseason was kind of the conventional consensus one. It was like, yeah, this should, this should be their year. And then I thought about it, Zach Taylor's been their coach seven years. As you mentioned, he's been over 10 wins once. Burrow has been their quarterback six years. He's done that once.
Starting point is 00:14:38 Healthy Joe Burrow, if you want to go there, has done it once in three seasons. They are 19. You want to say, oh, Al Burrow wasn't healthy a lot of those scenes. Sure. Just over the last three years, when he's healthy, their team has gone 19 and 16 with him at quarterback. And the key thing, I think you said, because I think the defense will be better, the key thing to me is this idea that the offensive line, because they ranked pretty
Starting point is 00:15:00 well in past block win rate or something last year, is. good is wrong, I think, at this point. Because I don't think Orlando Brown is a plus starter. I think the interior is problem. The offensive line is good? Yeah, they get a little bit of credit, like, oh, that they solve that.
Starting point is 00:15:15 And I think their scheme change could cover it up, but I also worry about Zach Taylor in a scheme change with Zach, with Joe Burrough. So I'm with you, but you got him ahead of me. I will go under on the Titans. So my Bengals pick was largely just organizational. I just, I don't like the stink around it. And sometimes I think the Titans don't get brought in with the Jets and the Browns and the Cardinals as the very worst.
Starting point is 00:15:41 And they spent a lot of money this year. They are at six and a half this offseason. And I think this is just where they are. This idea that Robert Salick can coach up defense is, it's true-ish. But if you look at the first year he was with the Jets, guess what they finished in efficiency, Nick, overall? 14. 32nd. No.
Starting point is 00:16:00 Wait, really? And then they were top like three the next couple of years. But his first year, when he brought the system over to the Jets, they were literally dead last. He got a lot of credit last year for kind of making it work. They won a lot of games for the 49ers. They were 27th in DVOA. This is not Jesse Minter.
Starting point is 00:16:16 This is not new ideas. They let Brian Daibel run their off season as like the front office. That seems weird. He literally was responsible for more free agent signings than than non-Bryndabal signings were just guys he knew, whether it was on offense or defense. They've had three straight seasons under six wins. Some of the money they spent, like I think was okay.
Starting point is 00:16:38 Others were Cordale Flott and Alante Taylor. I just added all up. I think it's an underrated division. And I just think they're still one of the worst three or four teams in the NFL. So again, this is a little scary. If I had to pick the Titans, I would have been an under. So we were four for four in agreement, which given our record last year, maybe not ideal.
Starting point is 00:16:58 but I, the, they wouldn't have been one of my, you know, one of my top 10 picks because I, the only, and again, this is, I don't know if this is interesting content, but when five of their, I'm sorry, seven of their games are against cults, Browns, Jets, Raiders, commanders, giants, it feels like they're going to have a lot of opportunities to, you know, now every time they're on someone's schedule, that team's fans is like, that's the week we're going to win. I get that. But I agree with a lot of what you were saying. The only, let me defend Bobby Sala a tiny bit. I am,
Starting point is 00:17:44 because I was very critical of him with the Jets. I am open to the possibility that every coach in league history should have their Jets tenure just a race from their record. that it's just like an unwinnable situation, and then we should evaluate you outside of what you did with the Jets. I think that, you know, probably, I feel almost the same way with the Browns,
Starting point is 00:18:09 which is why I feel terribly for my guy, Eric Manjini, who got two head coaching opportunities, the Jets and the Browns. They're like, you're out of here, buddy, like those not ideal. And so I do, I am open to the possibility that Sala will be good, and I'm open to the possibility that Cam Ward will, you know, have a big year to jump. Me too. But there's not a lot of evidence that Cam Ward's going to have a year to jump. It's just that he was the number one.
Starting point is 00:18:35 He could play well. They could, Salah could do a lot of good things. And they, I think five and 12, six and 11 would be a fine season. And that's still an under. That's a good point. That's an under. I just don't know why they didn't get treated. There's a couple three and a half over unders out there.
Starting point is 00:18:48 The jets are a five and a half. I didn't get why the Titans got that extra bump. I guess it was. That's fair. I'm just going to stay in the same division. Uh-oh. And the wanton, blatant, outrageous.
Starting point is 00:19:04 These aren't microaggressions. These are macro aggressions. Disrespect. I know where you're going. And this was next on my list. I should have thought about what you were going to do. And my guy, Trevor Lawrence. This guy's won 13 games last year.
Starting point is 00:19:17 It was third on my list. I'm really mad. I could have seen this coming. There's no way you were thinking about the Titans. I didn't really think about a draft that. Here's the thing you got to recognize about me. I have cable TV brain. So even if I loved the Titans,
Starting point is 00:19:31 I'm like, we don't want to talk about the Titans early. This is a podcast. We try to treat, especially before the season, 32 teams, I'm into a month. No, I know that, but so just in gaming out my picks, I'm going to go sexy teams early. And while the Jags are not a sexy team to anyone else, they are to me. They won 13 games last year. I understand they lost, and I want to ask you about,
Starting point is 00:19:52 Travis A. Chan, remind me, let's come back to him in a second. But I get that. Here's what I know. They're not going to get less out of Travis Hunter. I know that. I know that Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence seem to get along quite well. We're going to get them in year two. I know that. I know that Trevor is coming off arguably the best year of his career and they could go minus four wins from last season and still hit an over. saw they played a playoff game against, you know, the quarterback of the decade, Josh Allen, and had a lead with two minutes left. That's three.
Starting point is 00:20:31 Yeah. And so I just think the Jags, I don't think they're going to win the division again. I don't think they're going to win 13 games again, but I think they can win 10 and make the playoffs over eight and a half Jacksonville. I hate this. It's actually the reason you won the over unders last year is you sniped them from me early in that draft. and I said the same thing.
Starting point is 00:20:54 And I bet you would have gotten your other pick wrong if I had taken them. And I would have won this. That was my trend. I was trying to figure out why are they eight and a half? Like I, and then, okay, these are the reasons I tried to come up with. Grant, you know, like I said, this was third on my board. So I'm very in. Like, you know, the prince that was promised your guy, Trevor Lent.
Starting point is 00:21:13 Like his inconsistencies maybe a little baked in. Turnover regression on defense. They were six and three, which is good, not crazy in one score games. Maybe a little bit of a year. to fall off plexiglass principle when you have that big of a jump up. But the reason why I dismiss all of that is I started thinking about it. And Liam Cohen is my pick for best play caller in the AFC, period. Like I put him right there with Kyle, Shanahan, and Sean McVeigh.
Starting point is 00:21:41 And if you want to throw, you know, Ben Johnson and Matt LaFleur maybe in that mix. I think Cohen's in it for good. They made such a great hire. he might be a little more emotional and running the organization. There might be crazy moments, but just in terms of making offense sing, he's awesome and he's got the pieces to do it.
Starting point is 00:22:00 So I just don't understand why they aren't going to win 10 games at least. Get Bell Pure Fiber Internet with Crave, Netflix, and Disney Plus from $94 a month. Price guaranteed for two years on internet with a two-year term and auto pay credit. Visit bell.ca for details and to check availability. Bell, connection is everything. You know the feeling.
Starting point is 00:22:21 You make a pick in your fantasy draft in the entire room groans because they wanted that player. Or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in primetime. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyason, host of the late round fantasy football podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. We've got data-driven analysis, history. historical trends and the strategies that separate winners from the rest. And your dominance doesn't stop with the draft.
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Starting point is 00:24:13 Hey everyone, I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sycamma, and together we host the NFL fantasy football show. Fantasy season is upon us. Are you ready to dominate your league? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL fantasy football show, you're already playing from behind. Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines. Injury updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts and sits across every position. And matchups, you can exploit to destroy your league mates.
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Starting point is 00:25:13 All right. This is wild that we were yet to have one of us draft a team and the person be like, I was going to go the other way. Okay. Maybe I'll do one just to make it interesting because I really doubt you'll Gernick. Steelers over eight and a half, but I'm going to do it. Wow. Wow. Mike McCarthy. Yeah, this could be dumb draft-wise, but I do feel strongly about it. All the other AFC North teams got huge schedule bumps.
Starting point is 00:25:43 Like, that's the biggest reason I think the Bengals are at 10 and a half. The Ravens are at 11.5. Mike McCarthy is absolutely an upgrade on Arthur Smith. I think there's more worlds than not where Patrick Graham is an upgrade in terms of modern defenses compared to where Mike Tomlin was at, never moving JJ, T.J. Watt around, all that sort of thing. I have concerns, the defensive backs, the linebackers, Aaron Rogers, but I think about line play when I do all this stuff.
Starting point is 00:26:11 I love their defensive line, and I think the offensive line has got a lot of potential, and McCarthy's a good floor razor for offensive lines, for quarterbacks. I think Rogers will be a little better, and the schedule bump because they play the NFC South out of division is really significant for me. So I think they'll find their way to get to nine or ten wins. So I agree with you on the schedule bump. I think that Tomlin was holding more together than we think, than we thought.
Starting point is 00:26:38 And I also, I just don't know, like, I was talking about, I was thinking about this today on the show, or on what's right. What's the over under I would set on starts by Aaron Rogers? And I think I would set it at, 12 and a half. And when they post buy once the weather gets cold,
Starting point is 00:27:06 and Aaron's 42, is that right? And he's going to be 43 or he's 41, he's going to be 42. Here's who they play starting after the buy in Cincinnati, in Philadelphia, home for Denver, home for Houston, at Jacksonville, that's not cold, home for Baltimore. That six game, five of those games, cold weather, old Aaron Rogers. I also don't know if I'm believing in third stop Mike McCarthy. So you're, I might have actually picked the Steelers, but it's because I think I projected them to go six and 11.
Starting point is 00:27:45 So we are in, we are. Well, you see, I'm theatrically opposed. No, I see, I feel like once a team's been taken, it's gone. I think you know, I think you can take the other side. I mean, this, by the way, even though it says it's my show, by the way, we can we take it back? I was just saying the same thing.
Starting point is 00:28:05 Like, we're going to want to cut some social from this clip. You can't do any of the original teams. I'm not cutting it with what's right with Nick Wright. So Eric, behind the glass, do us a thing. There we're back to NFL Daily. Thank you. All right, so is it my go? Yeah, and this shows, like, I'm not,
Starting point is 00:28:21 I try to do things unemotionally. I am a Rogers hater. I don't believe in them and I still went with them over. You're up. Wow. You said that and you didn't disclose your vac status. What a hypocrite.
Starting point is 00:28:35 Unbelievable. I am going under nine and a half wins for the six-time defending off-season AFC West champion Los Angeles Chargers. Oh, let's go. I love that.
Starting point is 00:28:55 All right. We're on the opposite sides now. From the studio that brought you, it's Brandon Staley's fault. And then the sequel of, you know what? This defense might be a little overrated. And then the trilogy of, gosh darn it,
Starting point is 00:29:18 Joe Alt's actually the league's most valuable player. Get ready for part, four titled, Who Can Win Without Be Otis? What? And so I am, I'm looking in to the crystal ball of excuses. And you know what we're about to hear? Yeah. Can we get him a number one receiver? Quentin Johnston?
Starting point is 00:29:43 Why are they still trotting him out there? Ladd McConkey's nice. He's a slot receiver. Today, Jim Harbaugh explained how they're going to play the hot hand at guard. That would concern me. Did you see that quote, Greg? I did. You know, the former Dynastic Patriots used to do the same thing at the beginning of the season if I wanted to spin it positively.
Starting point is 00:30:04 So I look at the Chargers roster and I say I don't love their skill position, guys. I have major questions about the interior of their offensive line. you have been the only person covering the at least somewhat concern about Rishon Slater's return. Like you've done a good job on that part of it. I think the defense is fine. But every year we talk about midway through a season, we're like, man, what happened to that team?
Starting point is 00:30:39 It's like, oh, they lost their coordinator. Well, they lost one of the best coordinators, the guy we think is going to help Baltimore. And they're in a tough division. And their strength of, They, their strength of schedule games, Denver won the division. Their strength of schedule games are Jags, Steelers, and what's the other one, the I, sorry, Panthers. The Chargers came in second of the division.
Starting point is 00:31:05 Their strength of schedule games, instead of the Steelers, they get the Ravens. Instead of the Jags, they get the Texans. And instead of the Panthers, they get the Bucks. So they just have a far more difficult schedule. And the way that schedule plays out is weeks, I think it's three through 10. This is the Chargers run. At Buffalo, at Seattle, home for Denver, at the Chiefs, at the Rams, home for the Texans, at the Ravens.
Starting point is 00:31:30 Good luck. I think that they win eight. I don't know if I have them eight and nine or nine and eight. And we are, you know, I don't know who's going to be blamed. I know it won't be Justin Herbert because he can throw the ball over the mountain. But I just don't. I don't think this is. Do you think Harvard played poorly last year in the regular season,
Starting point is 00:31:52 which is all that these windfalls are judging? No, no, no. I thought in the regular season, Herbert played really well. I think that, I think that, you know, in a more just universe that,
Starting point is 00:32:02 you know, there's, are you a Marvel fan? I'm not really a Marvel. I don't know a ton about that stuff. Maybe Walker does, but you know, there's a multiverse theory where there's a bunch of different,
Starting point is 00:32:12 you know, versions of the universe. In the multiverse where the NFL has, the English Premier League rules where there is no postseason, it's just regular season. Justin Herbert's the guy so many of our colleagues think he is.
Starting point is 00:32:26 But you're right, this isn't a playoff show. I mean, I think he is. I think he's that guy. If you didn't know, you lose your football hipster cred if you don't believe Justin.
Starting point is 00:32:36 Can I just ask a question? And C.J. Stroud is better than you think he is. I'm going the other side over, by the way. I don't care about you thinking they're off the board. They were one of my last picks. They probably would have been my last, but just to make it interesting, I'm going to go over. What were you going to ask me?
Starting point is 00:32:52 Oh, I have two questions, because I also have a Travis A. Chan question. But first on the Chargers. Because I know there's a regular season show. I know that. I just have a question for you since you're one of the Herbert guys. Let's say they win 11 games again, and he's really good again. Is this the year, where if this year in the first year, playoff game. If it's three in a row, if he is, if he has, if we have a three year sample of the
Starting point is 00:33:26 three worst games he has played of the 54 are the, if the, if the dead last, second last and last last are the playoff games. Are we then allowed to say, you know what? Maybe there's something up with this. I will, I will accept that. And there is absolutely something up with it. Like he's gotten tight in the playoffs. I think, I think that is a thing. He was not thinking clearly. It was not all about the offensive line. But to me, it doesn't erase what I see in the regular season. All your points on the schedule are really strong. They play road games against the Seahawks, the Rams, the Ravens, and the Bills. You could argue that, and the, you know, the ones in the division with the Broncos and the Chiefs. And you could argue those are among the
Starting point is 00:34:09 hardest possible games in the NFL this year. It's a brutal schedule. So just to be clear, that will be the excuse. That will be what the studio puts up first. I'm going to schedule, not Biotish. Biatish doesn't make... I do believe in McDaniels, though. I do think a key messador is like a sneaky defensive rookie of the year. I do think they're greater than the sum of their parts.
Starting point is 00:34:28 They do get the tack on the defense. Like, they're just well coached. I'm hoping you're right that Minter leaving doesn't kill him. And then I just look at Harbaugh. Like, they have won 11 games the last two years. They found a way in five of his six years as an NFL head coach, he's won 11 games. That's like a big number.
Starting point is 00:34:44 That's not sneaking over the number. So in years, in years, three of this kind of operation. I just think all these AFC West teams are really good. I'm relatively high on your Chiefs too, and it's hard for me to not see them all winning double-digit games, even if though mathematically
Starting point is 00:35:01 that's going to be tough to do. I mean, hell, the NFC West last year at three teams win 12. So it's certainly you know what I mean, can happen. All right, before I do my next over, or my next pick, I should say, I want to give you a compliment.
Starting point is 00:35:17 And this is something I have found I struggle with sometimes. So former Jags running back now, Saints running back, Travis A. Chan, who forever we thought was Travis Etyn. He was called Etienne or E.T.N. And then he, in a very lightly watched press conference, told America, no, my name is A. Chan, as in like Devin A. Chan. You have respected the man, his family, and his actual name. and called him the right name. I find myself struggling with it,
Starting point is 00:35:53 not because I don't know it, but because there are certain improperly pronounced names that America is so convinced is the proper pronunciation that I fear if I start calling him on TV, Travis A-chan, the audience is going to be like this idiot. He thinks it's the dolphins guy, he's confused, But you don't care.
Starting point is 00:36:19 You're like, you know what? Right is right. And so I give you credit. Maybe that just speaks to the level of confidence we have in our respective audiences. You know what? Maybe that's it. All right. I went with like ECHIN for a little while.
Starting point is 00:36:33 I didn't hear that it was just ACHAN. I was like, oh, thanks. That actually takes the pressure off. That is just ACHAN. I was trying to do something. No, no, you're right. I heard him in a subsequent interview on Annetteville Network. Be like, no, it's just ACHN, just like Devin.
Starting point is 00:36:46 Just like Devin. It's like, okay, cool. All right, I've waited long enough. Kansas Chiefs over 10.5. Yeah, if I had to pick them, that is where I'd go to. But I would not have taken them in my top draft. So to make the case. I mean, this is, you know, you're playing to type here going anti-chargers, pro chiefs, back to back.
Starting point is 00:37:07 But all along. That's fine. You're right. I am playing to type in that regard. I here's the argument for it. Now, you know what, let me say my biggest concern about the Chiefs. I think the biggest misnomer about the Chiefs going into the draft was ever that they were going to go all in on the offensive line. The Chief's offensive line last year was awful, but it was awful because their left tackle missed nine games.
Starting point is 00:37:36 They were on their fourth string right tackle and their interior offensive line. I think Trey Smith missed a quarter of the season. the chiefs have a first round picket left tackle, a second round picket left guard, the best center in the league, one of the highest paid right guards in the league, and we'll see it right tackle. Like that is a question, but very few teams have five great offensive linemen. I mean, they're not happy at right tackle. They think they have a problem.
Starting point is 00:38:01 No, that's what I'm, I agree. No, no, no. That's what I'm saying they have, yeah, question marks maybe being kind. But my point is, four of their five offensive line spots they feel really good about with an asterisk of, I don't know what the hell is going on with Josh Simmons. And they don't have, like he just has to be available in there. If he is, this team's going to be excellent. They have not had a legitimate running threat since the first 12 games of Mahomes' career
Starting point is 00:38:33 with Kareem Hunt. Now, Pacheco was nice as a rookie, but it was more like, hey, look at the seventh round pick. That is a legitimate NFL running back. someone you had to account for. One of the reasons the offense died last year was because the teams, no matter what look we were in, no matter what formation, they're like, you're not running. And if you are, we don't care. And that clouded everything for Patrick. So that will be better with Kenneth Walker. I think that last season, they had the worst pass rush they've had in Mahomes'
Starting point is 00:39:06 his career. They spent three, the sixth pick, the 29th pick, and the 40th pick on things that should help that. Mansoor Delane, everyone's number one corner in the draft. Peter Woods, who was, by some of the mock draft folks, a year before this year's draft, was considered a top five pick potentially, and then he kind of took the year off of Clemson. And this R. Mason Thomas kid, who's been awesome, at least in the preseason. So they addressed that there. The secondary is super young. But aside from Herbert, all of the good quarterbacks that they face are week 10 or later. They face them kind of in a row.
Starting point is 00:39:43 They play like Josh and Stafford and Drake and I think Herbert's second time and one other really good quarterback. So that's when the young defense will have had time to learn Spaggs' scheme kind of mature a little bit like they did in 2022 when they had a super young secondary and all they did was win the Super Bowl. So there's all of that. And then there is the fact that I think last year, with Rishi Rice suspended and Xavier worthy injured and Kelsey's, you know, being on the downslope. With all of that, at the midway point of this last season, not two years ago, not three years ago, after week eight of last year, the Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and Patrick Mahomes was the huge favorite to be league MVP.
Starting point is 00:40:32 It then all fell apart. like Mahomes was terrible in the six games before he got hurt. The Chiefs were one in five and whatever, you know, before he got hurt. But after eight weeks of last season, just so everybody knows, Mahomes had 21 touchdowns, four turnovers, a 103 rating was averaging 300, I'm sorry, 297 yards per game. It was the favorite to win league MVP. He then played poorly for a month and a half.
Starting point is 00:41:03 I think he'll be fine. I think the Chiefs will be fine. They are going to start the season off beating Denver, and then they will coast to 4-0 before they have their, because they're, again, I think they lose five games. I think the, you know, but their next three games are Colts, Dolphins, Raiders, and then they get the buy.
Starting point is 00:41:24 And so then coming out of the buy, they get the chargers, and then the schedule gets really hard, but I think there'll be five and O going into that, and then go seven and five the rest of the way, that's 12 wins. I agree with a lot of what you said. Two things I'll pull out.
Starting point is 00:41:39 Number one, Josh Simmons, as you explain it, maybe as consequential as just about any non-quarterback to who could go to the Super Bowl this year of anyone in the AFC. It really is that big a deal. And that's a tricky place to be based on his precedent in the NFL so far, which granted is only a year. but there were mysterious circumstances. There was a lot of talk up behind, you know,
Starting point is 00:42:08 and he could be an all pro or he could be MIA, which is a big issue. Second, I know we waver way ACLs now, but, you know, I do want to see what impact that has on Patrick Mahomes because what I don't want and what I don't think will happen. I mentioned he's one of the two people I'm considering to write down as my preseason MVP, him or Lamar. what I don't want to happen is another middling statistical year,
Starting point is 00:42:37 because what are you going to do for year four of the Patrick Mahomes is actually putting up average stats in the middle of his prime campaign and how that kind of impacts how we think of him. I don't think it's going to happen, but it would be awkward if it does happen. And at a certain point, I'd start to believe in how his career arc is going to go like a little less. Granted, I'm playing devil's advocate because I think he's going to pull
Starting point is 00:43:03 something epic this year that reminds everyone who he is, but it's difficult. He's coming off of an ACL and he's got an old, not an old team. They're actually quite young overall, but like not an explosive enough team around. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not as worried about the career arc thing as far as how we're going to think of this era of football. I know that our mutual friend and a guy who up until a month ago, I considered, you know, I always said that if I ever, and you know, I'd say there's, you know, it's not a 50-50 chance, but it's better than a, you know, 25% chance that this happens.
Starting point is 00:43:37 If a team ever, you know, hires me to be the president of football operations, that Bill Barnwell would be my first call to be team general manager. That, though, changed drastically when I saw him explain how if there was quarterback of the decade for 2020s, it would. easily be Josh Allen, which is what we call on our show an unacceptable opinion. It's just doesn't exist. I think I probably have Josh Allen third to be fair. So I'm, well, that's why I said is unacceptable opinion. Call me up. Yeah, exactly. But I'm not worried about Patrick's kind of like how we're going to view his career until when he's got,
Starting point is 00:44:23 you know, no one of his era has more MVP's and the, you know, the, The other two quarterbacks who are competing with him have been to zero Super Bowls and he's been to five. It's not about that though. Like it's more and I don't want to just get stuck on my homes. But it's more is he going to have Dan Marino's career, which was an awesome career. He's an all-time great. And the very, very best of his best was in the first five or six years. I don't want that.
Starting point is 00:44:50 And so I went into last year. Wow me again, Patrick. Like do some. That's kind of the point. And he started to do it. And he did it at the beginning of the last. I just, I do, I think that the, as odd as it sounds like, because he, you know, tore his ACL, I think that the, I think the, I think the difference of the off season and that I think
Starting point is 00:45:16 the three straight Super Bowls and then last year, or the year before last pardon me, of winning the way they did. I mean, they, they, they, in going for the three, Pete, they were also the league's last undefeated team, like, and winning games ridiculously. And then there is, they made the Super Bowl. They made the Super Bowl. They should not be punished for making the Super Bowl. They went 15 and one when Patrick played and then made the Super Bowl and then got their teeth kicked in.
Starting point is 00:45:43 And then the next year, Patrick, you know, the whole team fell apart. I think he's going to be, I think he is LeBron-esque when it comes to just different type of cat athletically. and he was like this his recovery from this has been so far out of schedule the whole time so I'm not worried about that we'll see it though week one Monday night football in Arrowhead against the Broncos yeah but I think yeah I think they win that game and they get to four and oh at the buy which makes the over the right play you're you're making me uh yeah you're you're helping maybe push me to go in moham I think I just people love a narrative my home's MVP this year my home's MVP would be sick God, it would be sick. You know who I guess can announce, I don't know, are we supposed to say it publicly? I now have a vote for the first time.
Starting point is 00:46:35 Wow! You can you can play it up to me. Wow, who'd they strip? I think people get tired of these. I actually heard that like, you know, it's like, man, they don't want the heat. They're like, we got a, we got a bunch available. Holy, holy, what an honor. I've been campaigning for an NBA awards vote forever, but they won't give me one.
Starting point is 00:46:55 So now I don't know. I did push for it. It was a squeaky wheel. Yeah, you deserve one, bro. Let's go Brown's under five and a half. Wow. It's all about the defense.
Starting point is 00:47:07 They were this bad. All about the defense. Yes, because they were this bad as an overall team last year with the defense that they had. And people are really, you know, chewing away the fact that Jim Schwartz is not there anymore. And I think they maxed out a very specific style of uncompetent. of uncomplicated defense that usually had kind of a shelf life. And they replaced Jim Schwartz, who was furious and had all of his guys there with Mike Rutenberg, who's never coordinated a defense.
Starting point is 00:47:37 There's good players there. I love Jared Verst. Like, I think he'll actually make that trade look respectable. But the rest of the defense, talent-wise, is just fine. Like, they could be a below-average defense, and that exposes the quarterback situation. No, Watson's not good. Shudur is probably not good. Like, he's hoping to be, like, a bridge quarterback or high-quality backup.
Starting point is 00:48:03 And more than anything, how much do they really want to win? I was just a little surprised they had a couple extra wins than the Dolphins, for instance. I know the schedule we talked about for the AFC. It's good, but the rest of the division schedule is not easy. So I feel like this is a three or four win team. So I think it's only because they get Titans. Raiders, Jets, giants. Yes.
Starting point is 00:48:26 Plus, they never go winless in the division. Like, they all, you know, they play the, I mean, you could fact check me on that. Maybe I'm wrong. But it feels like, like, I think Burrow, like, is, like a 500 record against the Browns. And Monkin could be a good head coach. I, I just think they're at cross purposes overall as an organization. And when this gets into, like, they're in the mix for Arch Manning and Dante Moore. We could be seeing Taylin Green starting games.
Starting point is 00:48:56 I just, I'm not into it. I'd be on the same page. Get Bell, Pure Fiber Internet with Crave, Netflix, and Disney Plus. From $94 a month, price guaranteed for two years on internet with a two-year term and auto pay credit. Visit bell.ca for details and to check availability. Bell, connection is everything. You know the feeling. You make a pick in your fantasy draft in the entire room groans because they wanted that player.
Starting point is 00:49:23 Or you grab a small school roof. off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in primetime. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyason, host of the late round fantasy football podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. We've got data-driven analysis, historical trends, and the strategies that separate winners from the rest.
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Starting point is 00:51:01 Listen to the NFL Report podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone. I'm Mike Yam. And I'm Trevor Sycambe, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. Fantasy season is upon us. Are you ready to dominate your league? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines. Injury updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts to the game.
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Starting point is 00:52:13 saying I was going, you know, I was very on brand. There is no team I was more wrong about last year than this team. I picked them to finish last in the division. I not so lightly mocked. They're overwhelmingly arrogant, trash talking head coach. and all they did was stick it to me all year long. I am going over nine and a half for the Denver Broncos. This, listen, I get it. They trailed in 15 games last year. They somehow won 14 games last year.
Starting point is 00:52:49 They trailed in 15. The one score wins thing is crazy. They're going to legitimately miss Jonathan Branklin Myers and they're going to miss Jonathan Cooper. Jonathan Brankle Myers, they knew they weren't going to have. Jonathan Cooper, they didn't. I get that piece of it. However, they have a great offensive line.
Starting point is 00:53:05 They, I begrudgingly must admit, they have a very good coach. They have one of the best home field advantages in the sport. And they're another one of these that like my Jags, they can go minus four wins from last year and hit the over. And I don't look at the chargers as good as other people do. so that makes, at least in my eye, the schedule not quite as ruling as it is for some. I just think this is a 10-11 win team. I like the addition of Waddle if he's healthy.
Starting point is 00:53:43 And I don't think they'll be as good as they were last year and they won't be as fortune in those one-score games. And Bo Nix does have to be better other than just late when they're trailing. But great home field, good head coach, awesome office. offensive line, really good defense, even if it's not quite as good as last year. That should be enough for 10 wins and back in the playoffs. So I'm over for Denver. I'm over too. And I'm over on a lot of these AFC teams.
Starting point is 00:54:11 And I did balance it out. I've done just writing it down both conferences. We're going to have Dave Damashek on to do the NFC. And I went over on the Broncos. I'm with you. Even the arguments against them made by myself feel intamination. and searching for something. It's just like, oh, the team that you expect, you know,
Starting point is 00:54:32 that has everyone back and got close, like it usually doesn't work out the same the next year. But that's fine. I think they could be an 11-win wildcard team or a 10-win wild-card team and you win you're over. They're too good in terms of their line play on both sides of the ball to go against. I'm going to go bills over 10 and a half.
Starting point is 00:54:48 The schedule goes from 31st. This was a little underrated last year. It's like, yeah, the Patriots had the easiest schedule of all time. The bills have the second easiest schedule last season, and it goes to a more challenging schedule. FDN Almanac only has them as, I think, the 10th hardest schedule. On paper, it looks harder to me.
Starting point is 00:55:09 They've won 11 games six straight years. Now, this is the argument that got us wrong on the Chiefs last year. I think I took them and sniped them from you. That didn't work out. But Josh Allen is, to use your guy, LeBron, maybe a different NBA superstar would be better. I'm just trying to think of a guy who's like a walking, you know, 48, 50 wins. Like he has been a walking 11 wins.
Starting point is 00:55:34 Yes. And the biggest X factor here is Jim Leonard. Jim Leonard, the defensive coordinator, is one of the most highly thought of rising coaches among coaches of the last seven, eight years. Like from when he was at Nebraska, like moving up, like, people just believe that he's the guy. And he was blocked by Vance Joseph in Denver. So he just wasn't going to get that. promotion. But I think there's there's a chance where he comes in as a very cool hot shot
Starting point is 00:56:03 defensive coordinator and raises their talent floor because the talent on defense is just eh. But ultimately, I think 12 is about where I see this team. I think they're a safer team by far than the Patriots. And I feel good about over 10.5. So I'm, I also would have been over. I have them at 11 and 10 and a half. So I wouldn't have, you know, they would have been one of my later picks, but I agree with you. I, I am a little, if I were a Bill's fan, here is the things I'd be concerned about. Was, did Sean McDermott not get enough credit for what he got out of that defense in the regular seasons? Like, that would be at least a question I would have. And I used to make that case
Starting point is 00:56:45 and I'm trying to make the other side of it. It started to lose a little traction the last few years, but you're absolutely right. But it also might be the last few years. They had, you know, the talent started diminishing significantly. So, that part, you know, is a concern. Is it a good idea to let your quarterback pick your head coach and have him pick his buddy? And have one of the
Starting point is 00:57:08 offensive line coaches compare having him to like the cool substitute teacher. Yeah, the uncle. One of the players like, yeah, it's like an uncle. Maybe I said substantive teacher. Yeah. I mean, that those are, those are legitimate
Starting point is 00:57:21 concerns. I don't know if DJ Moore if we were, here's what I say. If we were stacking up every team's number one receiver, how many do we, how many do we list before we say DJ more? So I, now it depends on what you think, you know, do you think last year was a blip, it was a trend, whatever it is. Those are all, to me, very legitimate concerns. The counterpoint is, to your point, they win 10 games every year, or 11 games, 11. 11 games every year with Josh Allen.
Starting point is 00:58:01 You know, despite, you know, the allegations that Josh Allen has no help, James Cook, you know, I think won the rushing title last year. That seems good. They have an awesome offensive line. The rushing champ last year. Josh Allen's great. And so, yeah, I mean, I do think with respect to your pets, they are. are still the class of the AFC East. I expect them to win the division
Starting point is 00:58:31 to regain their spot atop the division. And I think they're going to win 11 games. So I agree with you. But if the totals 10 and a half and I have them winning 11, it's not a bet I would make. And I know you're obviously, this is we're not gambling on NFL daily. But it wouldn't have been one of my picks,
Starting point is 00:58:49 but I agree with you directional. Yeah, the issues to me would be the secondary in general in your county on Jim Leonard. to make up for that. I just don't know if they have enough juice up front to make up for a pretty inexperienced, slower, secondary. And then it would be the offensive line. I never, sometimes.
Starting point is 00:59:08 You're worried about the offensive line? Just a little, because they've played at such a high level, and they're a good run-blocking group, but sometimes you count on that offensive line, which has been steady. It's just hard to find offensive lines that are good year after year after year after year, and they've had great continuity.
Starting point is 00:59:21 But if that was impacted, and they definitely did not pass pro as well last year, then suddenly things fall apart a little. But overall, I'm into it. Okay, we're down to our last two picks each, and we'll do them quick. We've got to get Nick out of here. But I wanted to ask more of an existential question
Starting point is 00:59:36 as you get older, Nick. You're a grandfather. I'm a grandfather, yeah. Thank you. But you are a younger man than me, I'm assuming. I know. I'm 41. Yes, you're much younger.
Starting point is 00:59:48 You're much younger. I'm 47. You're 47? Yeah. You look great, buddy. I just, you know, my daughter started in high school. I'm just small. That's why people would say.
Starting point is 00:59:58 No, but I can't tell you're short from sitting down. No, you look great. I would have thought you were 43. Thank you. I mean. Yeah, wow. Wow, four years. Okay.
Starting point is 01:00:08 No. As we get older in this, and I think this was specifically to the AFC this year, and you're aware of, you know, some years, like last year, our overunders didn't do so good. We actually only know in our hearts that we know so much as you get older. do you have any struggle as like a takesman, having any less confidence that you can predict the future with such confidence when in your heart, you know that none of us really know what's going to happen?
Starting point is 01:00:43 You know, how do you wrestle with that? More confidence than ever. Every year, I'm just acquiring more and more information. But to quote, you know, one of my favorite tennis players, Naomi Osaka, The results are always resulting for you. Naomi has given some great interviews. She did the Iverson tribute today or yesterday. All right, so listen, this is a fair question.
Starting point is 01:01:10 It's a real question. Let me answer it as a professional takesman. And I like that. I just traveled with my wife in Europe for two weeks. And when people would ask me what I do for a living, I would say I'm one of those guys that argues about sports on TV. TV. And I respect the audience's intelligence enough to know the difference between when I go on the air and I say what I very rarely do reporting, but I occasionally do some actual reporting of stuff that I know. and I a little more often do in what I would call informed opinions about things that have happened
Starting point is 01:01:58 that were, you know, where I'm not, you know, reporting things, but I have, I have, I know stuff and I'm giving informed opinion. I expect the audience to recognize if I am talking about things that have already occurred with real conviction, it is because I know what I am saying is true. I also expect the audience to know that if I am talking about things that have not yet occurred with real conviction, we're all fucking guessing. Pardon me, sorry.
Starting point is 01:02:35 Okay. It's a good answer. You know what? Like it is, I spend a lot of time prepping, and I, you know, I do gamble, and so I, you know, I put my money around out there, do these things. But to your point, it's things that have not yet occurred.
Starting point is 01:02:54 So when people are like, oh, my God, you like my last few years, my NFC Super Bowl picks have just been, I picked the Bears. They, not last year, bro. No, I know. And then last year I picked the bucks. Like, I picked teams that don't even make the playoffs. I guess last year I picked also the Chiefs. They didn't make playoffs either.
Starting point is 01:03:16 But you were like, oh, this guy. And it's like, man, we're predicting the future is what we're doing. We're just doing it as well as we can. And so, yeah, I'm not worried about it. I think part of it is you believe in your picks. Now, you must believe in some more than others, but you're excellent at expressing true belief in your picks. And I found, and I don't want to predict as I get older,
Starting point is 01:03:44 and I'm looking at this, as the offseason goes along, and I have a daily just football show. It's like I'm ultimately at some point presenting both sides and thinking about it on both sides. And especially with this AFC, which seems extremely jumbled to me, I can see both sides for everyone. And so at the end of the day, when we get to this point, I feel like I feel a little less strong than I used to about what's going to happen.
Starting point is 01:04:08 I don't know if that makes me more accurate. No, I think that makes you, you know, wise and mature. it would probably make you not my number one pick for like first take host, but you're doing it to different jobs. You work to the show you're on. Then suddenly, suddenly I'm Skip Bayless, Cirque, 2005. Right, you could do it. All right, last pick.
Starting point is 01:04:36 Let's just do one more pick each because that will actually give us an odd number of teams. We'll have seven each, and that way we'll each end up as a winner or a loser. By the way, I just got to tell you this, buddy, you made that exact same math error last year, the exact same one, that we need to pick an odd number of teams that way. They'll definitely be a winner or a loser. But that's not how it works. What would need to happen is you and I would need to pick a different number of teams and then it would be percentage. But it doesn't matter. I'm going under on your New England Patriots.
Starting point is 01:05:11 And barely. I think they are, you know, I think they're going to win 10 games, but I think it's more likely they win 9 than they win 11. And so that's why I'm going under and because the 10 wins would be an under. So that's, you know, that's fine. I am, I do think that the schedule upgrade, the upgrade and difficulty is significant on the schedule. everybody knows that last year it was the easiest schedule this century in the NFL since the 99 Rams. So that is something. I am at least slightly concerned about the offensive line.
Starting point is 01:05:53 So that is something. You and I both didn't love the Will Campbell pick from the moment it happened. And I haven't loved him yet as a pro. So there's that. I do, I went going into the playoffs, my confidence level that Drake May was going to be a perennial top five quarterback over the next decade was at like 8.8 out of 10.
Starting point is 01:06:21 Like I was like just pencil them in. Coming out of the playoffs, it's at a 7.8 out of 10. It's not a huge hit, but there was enough of a holy moly that it concerned me a bit. All of that plus the Super Bowl hangover you know, I just think is enough to take a team that won, that you guys win 14, 14 games down to 10,
Starting point is 01:06:46 which would be an under. So I'll say under for the past. Yeah, I struggled with them. I don't want to go on the record because I don't want to be rooting against them going. But I don't feel strong. That feels like the right number and 10 feels about right. Their route is really early 2010's Patriots. I'm not putting, Drake me at that level.
Starting point is 01:07:03 But I do think their way to get to 11 or 12 is top three. offense and like situational defense with a coach that's pretty good at game management and you just win some high scoring games by making enough defensive stops. And I think there is a route to doing that. My biggest question is Will Campbell related because you reportedly had a good camp and there is a chance that their offensive line is significantly better with Elijah Vera Tucker and if Campbell improves. And if that happens with the wide receivers, like they are potentially a top three offense. And then, you know, then it's easy to win some games. So real quick, before you do your final pick, can I suggest the tiebreaker?
Starting point is 01:07:44 Sure. You and I went opo on the Chargers, right? We did. That was the team that I went under and you said you're going to use one of your picks as an over, right? If we tie the Chargers to you. If we tie whoever gets the Chargers thing right, wins. So that's like, that's counting like two and a half times because, you know, it's going to give us a toss and that's the time.
Starting point is 01:08:05 Yeah, but it's good. It's good. A little more juice for you to root against. I don't listen. I don't. The most beleaguered, misunderstood fan base in the NFL, because there are few, but they're mighty. I don't know if you see the engagement on Chargers posts are great. If you come after it, like they come after you.
Starting point is 01:08:23 And when you're there, and it's got a lot of fans. It's, when you're there and it is, like I went to the Eagles Chargers last year, it, it's a bummer that, you know, it's two-thirds Eagles. But the ones that are there are loud. and I respect the hell out of like that they're doing it. So. Okay. All right. There you go.
Starting point is 01:08:39 All right. What's your last pick? I'll just go by my list because you took chiefs over from me. It seems mean to go Raiders under, but I do believe in that. I think the entire AFC South is a little better. I'm going Colts over seven and a half. The schedule's easier on paper. Your county on Daniel Jones, period, especially Daniel Jones coming off at Torn Achilles.
Starting point is 01:09:00 That's easily the biggest problem here. But Shane Stuyken has yet to live. lose 10 games in a season. He's topped it three in a row. I'm intrigued what Lou Anorumo is going to do with this defense. It's a tough defense, like what he asked them to do without veteran players, at least going into the season, they're healthier. And I think could be able to have some pop-up games where Lou just gives teams a lot of problems. And you were talking about MVP halfway through this season. Another option, other than Patrick Baham's was, you know, Daniel Jones. They had one of the greatest offenses in NFL history through week.
Starting point is 01:09:34 It fell apart, but I only need to get to eight wins here. I think they're better than that. So here is, listen, I have them going seven and ten, so I don't have a big disagreement. But I do wonder, first three weeks, Ravens at Chiefs home for Texans. O' and three start, are we all of a sudden saying the words interim head coach, Lou Anorumo? I hope not.
Starting point is 01:10:04 And I'm glad you pointed that out because I even wrote it down that for a team I'm taking an over on, there's a real chance they're drafting top three to five and it all blows up. Because like organizationally, I could see them having the messiest of seasons and them being absolutely terrible,
Starting point is 01:10:24 partly because of things like that. Ultimately, I think their mean season is eight or nine wins. But just to be clear, there is no chance they're drafting three or five. Well, that's a good one. Because they're doing everything. They gave that pick away because they went all in on sauce Gardner because they were like, Daniel Jones, you're going to do it.
Starting point is 01:10:46 In one of the most reckless trades in the last 10 years in the NFL, a mid-season two first round pick trade when Daniel Jones was not only your quarterback but was not signed to an extension. that was and so yeah they need to they need to be good i maybe you'll be right but i just hate i i know in theory people because one of the things people when the NFL makes a big deal out of schedule release a hipster thing to say is like guys we've known who they're playing for years 14 of the games and we've known who they're the all 17 for months what you all The order does matter.
Starting point is 01:11:31 Like it does for a team that is, at least for me, a team that you could see going either way, having the year start that tough, is so much worse than you get off to a good start. You're feeling good and those games are spread out. So that's my concern. But it's a persuasive argument. It's a persuasive argument.
Starting point is 01:11:53 But okay, so we did everything. The only teams we did not discuss, were the Raiders and the Dolphins, and that sounds right to me. Is that true? That's wild. Yeah, I would go over. I think I'm almost an auto over on three and a half wins for any team.
Starting point is 01:12:10 I might even draft the Cardinals tomorrow. I don't think Damashick's listening to this show. I might even draft the Cardinals. That's a bold play, my friend. Nick Wright. Go ahead, sorry. Yeah. What's right with Nick Wright?
Starting point is 01:12:22 He is an excellent podcaster, excellent on YouTube. What, you're going more often the season? I, you know, I don't know. Maybe I think so. When I was on vacation, I had fill in hosts. So I was like, wow, this is like a real business. I own the thing. So I'm kind of incentivized to do as much as possible. We also, though, if I may plug it just for a moment. Next week will be our 500th episode. And we are, I think like three, like 3,200 people on
Starting point is 01:12:56 YouTube away from being at a quarter of a million subscribers on YouTube. So if people want to subscribe on YouTube iTunes or Spotify, and you know, I think it's a good podcast. It is not, I don't think it's a great podcast yet. The TV show, I think, is a great TV
Starting point is 01:13:12 show in the medium. And I hope people check it out. And I can't believe we're at football season. I'm so excited about it. I'm so happy that we're there. And yeah, you took the words out of my mouth. He told everyone he saw in Europe, He's a man on TV that argues about sports.
Starting point is 01:13:28 For my money, there's no one better at doing it. Nick Wright, thank you very much. Play that music. And then I'll tell you what we're coming up this week. We got a lot going out. We got Brett Coleman coming up on the show later this week, doing some making the lead picks. We have our final Super Bowl predictions.
Starting point is 01:13:43 That's with Patrick Claibon and Jordan Rodry. But you will hear from me next with Dave Damasheck doing our NFC overrunners. There's a few that I think are heaters there. We'll see you then. The entire draft room groans, because you just took the guy they wanted. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zachary Eisen, host of the award-winning late-round podcast.
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