NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 2026 NFL Win Totals First Thoughts with Seth Payne

Episode Date: May 4, 2026

Gregg Rosenthal and Seth Payne react to the 2026 win totals for every NFL team. First, Gregg and Seth get caught up on the news from around the NFL including fifth-year option decisions on Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, the status of Patrick Mahomes heading into next season, Fernando Mendoza adjusting to the NFL, P.J. Walker calling it a career and more! After the break, Gregg and Seth see the win totals for the 2026 season for the first time starting with the AFC East, North, South and West followed by the NFC East, North, South and West.   NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast, guaranteed human. Where we'd love to throw out a first pitch at a baseball game and do it better than Malik Willis. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in my garage. I'm talking to one of our favorite regular guests from outside the NFL Daily World. It is Seth Payne, former defensive lineman, extraordinary for the Texans in Jags. He's the Seth Payne Show on YouTube. He hosts Payne and Pendergast on 610 a.m. in Houston.

welcome to the show. Are you ready to carry us today? I'm so, I'm so ready to carry you to greatness. The pregame prep show, pep talk was just incredible by you. Seth, there's really not a whole lot to talk about stuff. I figured I'd bring you in. No, I didn't mean bring you in. What I'm saying is, we might as well have you the whole show. Usually we'd have you fly in for 15 or 20 minutes.

You're busy. But I'm like, Seth, even though he's on four hours of radio today, He can stretch his legs or whatever. He'd be great to talk about Fernando Mendoza learning how to play under center. You're going to bring me in at 1 p.m. Eastern that on a getaway day, hell yeah. Yeah. I am your getaway day lineup. Stop.

It's Monday. It's the start of a big week. We'll be still posting and taping every day this week. But we will start with a little bit of news. And then, Seth, I thought would be a fun person to do an exercise later in the show. We're going to have Eric Roberts, our producers, got in the graphic. is ready. He's going to post the win totals projected in Vegas for all 32 teams. We'll go division by division. I have purposely not looked at these at all this offseason. And I just thought it'd be a

fun first reaction. And Seth and I will just, you know, just quick reactions of like what consensus is looking like, how people see the favorites in each division and will react. But we will, we will start with the news. Seth, you look too surprised by what the segment's going to be. No, I just say, you know, usually when you bring me on, it's, you know, we talk about the Texans either winning or losing or something. But now this is going to be something where 50% of the people watching will hate me afterwards when I take the under on their team. So I appreciate that too. Well, we don't, yeah, we're not going to go through every team and say over under more just like first thoughts of, oh, that's interesting. Because the first time I look at it, it's sometimes things stand out.

But we will run through a little bit of news quickly. The final fifth year options have been decided. and there was a yes on Bryce Young, which we knew about. There was a no on Anthony Richardson. That was an obvious no. Some other knows, Broderick Jones, the tackle from the Steelers. They will not pay him $19 million in 2027. That makes sense.

No, Deante Banks. He will not make $12.6 million, the cornerback for the Giants. It was a no for Felix, Anadike Uzama. Edge rusher for the chiefs that has not worked out for them at all, has barely played. That would have been 14.4. million dollars and then a couple of the yeses i found interesting dalton kinkade gets a yes 8.1 million that's cheap for a titan and then lucas van ness gets a yes eddresser for the packers maybe the only

surprise out of that big group and that was a lot of names there set is there one of all those names that stands out to you as interesting in terms of just how their career is gone or the decision being made i just into anthony richardson i think is still fascinating to me because he's just such a freak of nature and including his arm, you know, the, the frustrating thing is because so few people actually watch the AFC South, largely, we would watch Anthony Richardson play a lot of complete football games, except for the ones in which he took himself out. And he'd make these incredible throws and you'd see the highlights and people would say, oh, I thought he wasn't an accurate quarterback. Like, no, yeah, you're not seeing the ones that he airmails into the third row of the stands.

He was a horribly inaccurate quarterback. Just a disgustingly inaccurate with the ability to make some incredible plays at times. But he's been beset by injuries the entire time, his entire career, which you could have expected by the fact that he was beset by injuries from high school on through college. But there's still something there. And now that he's not in the division, I'm pulling for the kid. I'd like to see him make a go of it somewhere. Yeah, it was almost a reminder like, oh, Anthony Richardson never got traded.

I kind of forgot about that. he's still on that roster. So just someone to watch, he did have some, okay, he has the next level highlights, but he did have some next level plays where it's like he's going through his reads and like throwing over the middle of the field that you get excited about. But you're right. There were too many ground balls to the wide receivers and ones flying over their heads. But he's 23 years old.

Like he's still like two and a half years younger than Bo Nix. It's like, okay, let's see some QB guru like McVeague at him. That's what I wanted. And then instead they, you know, draft. Well, no, and the whole thing about him is, like, yeah, he's in my mind. He's off the roster. He is that guy that as much as I was skeptical of his ability to actually play starting quarterback in the NFL, it was terrifying to play against them because he is capable of making

those incredible throws of those incredible runs. And like that part of it, that untapped upside, if you could do it with consistency, is pretty amazing if you could harness all the other stuff in. So Van Ness has been a disappointment for the Packers, but they keep him. And they are really bad at edge rush going into the season. He might be their starter. But let's move on. I mentioned Anadike Uzama for the Chiefs, kind of a bus so far for him.

They draft a couple linemen trying to improve their defense to help the 2026 group. And I saw this report from Andy Reid talking last week about Patrick Mahomes. And I was like, oh, yeah, maybe the greatest quarterback to enter the league in my lifetime is coming off a torn ACL. it's a little like something we haven't talked about at all. And I was surprised to hear that Andy Reid said that Patrick Mahomes should be good to go for late May OTAs because they're not going against a defense. I know it's not real football. But he actually said coming off the torn ACL late last season that he should be out there. And it was just a reminder like, oh yeah, this is going to be something we're tracking throughout training camp.

And guys come off torn ACLs quicker than ever. Who knows when he'll be ready for quote unquote full content. You know, you wouldn't expect him to be even fully practicing necessarily in training camp. But the fact that he's out there for OTAs, just, I just wanted to put that out there. That seems notable for one of the greatest quarterbacks I've ever seen. No, and I think it at least gives you some insight into, okay, the, you know, when you tear more than one ligament, when it's more than just the ACL, that things can get pretty complicated. So it, there probably wasn't any cartilage damage.

And other, like, if it's, if that's where he is right now, I think the chances of him start in week one seem pretty reasonable. And then you can just go back to all the old questions he had about the Chiefs during the first two thirds of last season. Who's going to get open on third down? But that, I'm a little bit,

I'm intrigued by him perhaps really just kind of being on a chip on his shoulder type of mode that he hasn't had to be in in a while. Not that he was ever lazy or didn't have an edge to him or anything like that, but if you just get that amped up version of a guy that feels like he's got something extra to prove that they could end up, you know, they could end up surpassing whatever the expectations are right now.

Well, here's what they've never done has been coming off a losing season. I mean, it was kind of an embarrassing season for Patrick Wilms, even before he tore his ACL, not personally, but just he is not used to losing. And Rishie Rice looks like he's going to be out there. I kind of personally just wanted to see Justin Fields in an Andy Reid offense for a couple weeks. So we'll have time to talk about it in camp, but it wouldn't shock me if they still roll out fields for a week or two and just play it as safe as possible. That would have been fun to me. That is a wild room, though. Mahomes field Nussmeyer. I just like that trio. Nusser. They tried

like hell to make Nussmeyer a story. They were thinking about the reclaiming the glory of the last year's draft where they made it all about Chador Sanders, the entire draft. And, you know, but melth threw in a little something. I can't believe Nuss Myers as late as he is. But you can't recapture the magic of the last year. I don't know. I mean, I'm no expert. But to me, if there's a difference between him and Ty Simpson,

it's a small one to me. They're in the same ballpark of like, yeah, I could see that person being like a high-level backup. It could work out or even better in a Sean McVeigh system. But I guess the rest of the league disagreed with me. You know, the thing about Andy Reid, if it is just for a couple games with Justin Fields, That is the classic.

Oh, great. Andy Reid's been in the lab, you know, whether it's the bye week or opening week, whichever, whenever Andy Reid gets a little extra time to prepare, yeah, I could totally see him just, you know, running rough shot over the first couple weeks of whoever Justin Fields faces until they figure out exactly how they're using them. So that's when the schedule release comes out. What, next week? That'll be interesting.

Usually it's next week. I've been put on alert to be ready to tape a show for next week. we'll be doing one. But they don't know anything. It's not information. Come on, give it. Let me tweet it out, man. Let me act like a nugget hussy for a minute here.

The people, a nugget hussy. That's an amazing word. I was calling a nugget hussy long before these recent events. Yeah. Bear. I, I, we act in the building that, you know, like we have to plan the show for next week, but we're finding out, like, everyone else. It's just that's the week they've done at the last two years.

Yeah. But Mike North, for what it's worth, the guy who makes the schedule warned on some media appearance. Well, it could be the week after that, too. It's all up to Roger. If he's not happy with the schedule, they're selling a TV package, that could delay it. So we'll find out. Let's move on. Eric made fun of me that I'm actually wanting to bring up the jersey sales in the news today.

But I just thought this was, I don't know why, but I find this. I know where you're going with this. I don't know where I'm going. Well, yeah, actually, I do know where I'm going. There's a few things. First of all, the Cowboys, just shout out to their fans for representing people make fun of them for being America's team. Well, then you get Caleb Downs as the number one jersey sales guy. And more impressively, you get Malachi Lawrence as the number three jersey sales guy in the entire league.

Shout out to the Hispanic community down in Miami who's got Jacob Rodriguez as the number two jersey sales guy in the entire league, a second round linebacker and the Texas Tech fans. That's pretty awesome. But here's what gets crazy. Mendoza 5, Drew Aller, number four. That is where I'm going. Drew Aller with the Steelers, the Penn State fans, just going big. Mike McCarthy, he got his guy. It's Drew Aller.

That's a commitment to your alma mater there because those are expensive jerse. It's crazy, man. I thought you were going to go with it. There are so many defensive players at the top of it, which kind of coincides with some of the weirdness of this draft this year. Yeah, the rest of it is Chris Johnson. Dolphins just have a lot of fans, the cornerback that went to the Dolphins. Jeremiah Love is down at seven. It's kind of a bad job at the Cardinals. Maybe they're not really much of a national team.

Caleb Lomu, who I think sold some extra jerseys with that dance that he was doing when he got drafted, the video of it. DeLint, the Enaman was nine and David Bailey, 10. So yeah, a lot of defenders. I'll tell you, there is something about the Cardinals, and I know you've got Cardinals fans that watch this, but not nearly as many as there probably should be. When the Texans played the Cardinals last year, I usually go through and I try to see what the, you know, what the film watchers like Greg Kassell and all those people are saying about,

or are saying about the upcoming opponent. And my God, it was so hard to find anything on the Cardinals. It was like they just, like they didn't even exist. And I felt bad for Cardinals fans because it's fun to hear your team talked about on NFL network and what's,

they've been through a lot. We were really high on them going into last year. We were on this show. We were wrong about that. Just thought they would be frisely. and you feel for them. It's like Clippers fans. Like everyone makes fun of Clippers fans.

And Chargers fans. And I'm here in L.A., and I like go to those games. And I know those people. And the thing is, the fans that are fans of those teams, they're real, they exist. There's plenty of them and they're hardcore. And the people that stay away, you can't blame them

because they've been run by some of the worst ownership in all of Major League sports. So it's like, you know, I understand it both ways. Those are real fans that you've stuck with them. I am a believer in the Cardinals in so far as they're in my group of It's not that bad. It's bad, but it's not as bad as people think it is. That's fair.

I mentioned Mendoza was fifth. The Raiders fans buying those jerseys. Here he was. We have an actual football player talking in front of a podium after actually playing football. We were talking before the show. What I was getting to, Seth, about it was a quiet time, is there's actually a little dead zone here of just news for a couple weeks, because the draft happens,

and then for the most part, OTAs aren't starting. They're not on the field for a couple weeks. So there's not much interview. You know, it's just a little bit of a dead zone. But we did have rookies practicing in Vegas. Let's listen to Fernando Mendoza at the podium. I believe it's the added footwork.

Instead of being back there in shotgun, we have to get back to make sure you get that. You can best serve your office alignment, still be on time, still decipher the defense. And with that, it's really have an emphasis on those first two steps, on securing the snap.

and getting out of there and powerful with having quick feet. So he's talking about the difference of playing under center. What has you laughing from that? He's just so expressive. Yes. I just love, I just want to go manufacture some widgets. I just,

he's like you should have a PowerPoint up there behind him. Yeah. That was the tip I mentioned on the show, if you guys happened to listen last week. He asked, like, a good student, Nate Tice, of Yahoo, who, well, what do you think I should work on after they got off camera? And Nate was, that kind of just went for the obvious one. It was like, yeah, you just got to do everything you can about the under center stuff,

just getting the footwork down. It's going to take some real reps. And here he is. I agree with you. I think he's going to give really good football answers for those who want to actually listen to him answer questions. It is. It sounds like the simplest thing in the world, but it's not as much about taking the snap.

It's all the footwork that's tied to it. And in Clint Kubiak's offense, And like a lot of West Coast offenses, it's just everything is tied to the rhythm of your footwork. So you're getting not just taking the snap, but then on your drops, where you're going in your reads, on your third step, on your fourth step, on your fifth step. Like that part of it, it's just, it takes so many reps to get comfortable with it. And I appreciate how they're handling him that he's probably not going to start the season, or at least that's their plan.

Every single time, almost every single time people say that this guy's not going to start. his rookie year, he ends up starting. So at some point he'll be out there. But he seems like the kind of kid that gets it that understands that he's just got to get in those reps to get natural with it. I think part of it might be a real confidence in Clint Kubiak in, hey, we can make Kirk Cousins look pretty good. We could get out of the gate actually playing pretty well.

I think that last two or less weeks, maybe zero weeks, if Mendoza just has an incredible camp and looks ahead of schedule. but they have a nice plan for cousins, who I think played pretty well at the end of last season. A couple little bits of college news. Brandon Sorsby, the Texas Tech quarterback, could be headed to the supplemental draft. So just something to think about

because he admitted to gambling in college. He has a lawyer that was the same lawyer that was involved in Deflategate, trying to get him an extra year of eligibility in college. But if he goes to the draft, we could have some supplemental draft, I think he'd be like a mid-round guy. I had some Jets fans being like, would they have to give up one of their ones next year for it? It's like, no, it doesn't

sound like it. But I think he might be like a third or fourth round pick, which, you know, he's a quarterback and give us something to talk about. What was his role in the deflakeet stuff? Was he on the side of the Tom Brady or on the NFL? I think he was on the side of the player, on the side of the Patriots. Yeah, that would make sense. We wouldn't know his name if he was in-house counsel or something. Yes. So that's just something to watch. And then look, Deuce Jones Drew, and we don't normally do signing, like in terms of commitments from a high school player to the college front news on this show. But I had to show my son on Sunday morning, fourth or fifth highest in the ESPN news stack of the biggest sports stories in the country was Deuce Jones Drew committing to UCLA.

And I said to my son Walker, here is the only person. that you've ever had lunch with that's in the stack of ESPN.com because Maurice once brought his whole family and we all had lunch together in Tokyo one time and he was a very nice young man and so I just wanted to give a congratulations out to Deuce Jones Drew following in the father's footsteps going to UCLA. I bet I bet Maurice Jones Drew is probably awesome with kids, huh?

He's a good dude. Wait, part of the reason, did you ever face him? I was like, you guys cross-bash-bash-bash-you- Yeah, I think I was injured his rookie year? I can't remember. I was on the team with him for like two weeks during training camp and what would have been the last year of my career. Did he go against? Did he go against him? No, no. I did. I was injured when he was still a young player. I'll tell you honestly, usually I rely on my co-host to tell me what happened to me during my career. I don't remember a lot of it. And I don't think it has anything to do with brain trauma. I just, I just don't

remember these things. I mean, I barely, people tell me stories from college, post-college that I was there for, sober and I'm just like, don't remember that. Don't remember that at all. That might be a bad sign for the future. I was drunk during most of my games. So that's the, that's the difference I guess. NFL doesn't want you to know that story. I mentioned, you know, throwing out the first pitch to start the show. If you are watching on YouTube, you can see Malik Willis's first pitch. And yeah, this is probably how you know it's a quiet time in the NFL that I'm throwing this into the rundown. but it was one of the funniest first pitches ever. And he said after the fact that he slipped,

and that's why he overshot the catcher by about, you know, 30 feet and 10 feet to the left. But he doesn't slip. I'm looking at it, and that's fine. Throwing a baseball's hard. I could do that much better. I like, I don't think the pressure would get to me. I would do that much better. It's hard to adjust to the humidity down there.

You know, the ball's a little bit slicker. They don't, I don't know if they had it in the humid. beforehand. But have you seen the clips of Pat Mahomes and Tom Brady? Yeah. Mahomes had a brutal one. It's just different. It's different.

Speaking to Mahomes, I mentioned the quarterback room there. I feel bad. Jake Hainer, a guy used to like what the Saints was cut by the Chiefs this morning. This is the part of the off season where like some guys, you know, they even cut people down,

you know, getting on a 90-man roster after the draft. And so, say so long to Jake Hainer. Jackson Dart, I just wanted to know when I was checking out the Kentucky Derby for a little bit, some of the highlights. NBC had him as best dressed on the Kentucky Derby.

Good for him. Oh, yeah. Shout out to Jackson Dart. I was just rep. I'm like, oh, he must be from there. It's like, no, he's from Utah, but he looks like a guy who just knows what to do with the Kentucky Derby. Rapping up here.

DeWan Jones took a pay cut for the Browns. I thought that was interesting because basically making no money. They were ready to just cut him if he wasn't willing to take a pay cut. that he's no longer a starter there. They hired Trent Balke, Trent Balkees back in the league. David Injoku visited the Chargers, and then happy trails to PJ Walker, who on this show, people know,

I always like to point out, completed one of the greatest throws in the history of the NFL. We're going to watch and listen to it right now. Walker on first down, moving to his left. And now Walker fires downfield, looking for DJ Moore. Oh, and 62 yards. has tied the game.

Oh my goodness. Jonathan Vilma on the call. That's like 67 or 8 yards in stride in the air while rolling left with under 20 seconds left to win the game. And whenever I bring up this point, that was like that's top five like best throws of the century. People are, that's ridiculous. That's PJ Walker. It's just like, no. But if you just look at that throw.

Congratulations. PJ Walker. He was here in Houston with the Houston roughnecks of the XFL at the time or UFL, whatever it was at the time. Yeah, and they were, I think it was COVID. And they would have, I think they won the fictitious championship because they had to cancel the season. So good job for that, too. Undersized guy with a massive arm gets nine years in. That is tough to do. I was at a Colts training camp practice where I think he was battling for the number three job back then.

Scott Tolzin was in that mix. and that was like eight years ago or something. I was there for a Frank Gore feature. So, you know, happy trails to PJ Walker for hanging in. Let's take a quick break, Seth, and we're going to get to the meat of this show, which is the over-under. So the Vegas sets the win totals for every team,

and it just gives us a little bit of a window into who are the favorites, who's not, and what consent is going to look like. We will react blindly right after the break. This May, IHeart Radio celebrates Asian Heritage Month. Discover powerful stories. vibrant cultures and unforgettable music. You're the only day to start-al-law.

From inspiring podcasts to playlist that span East, South, Southeast, and West Asian artists. The voices shaping our world. Listen now on the free I-Hard Radio app. And at iHardio.ca. Back on NFL Daily. When you have a guest that does four hours of radio a day, you do feel like a little, a little worse about it. No, I don't do any work at all.

My co-host is the one that does all the work. I'm just a big goofball. Yeah, one of the best in the business. Seth Payne is going to react to these over-under wind totals blindly. So this is an exercise we did last year. I went back and checked it out. Some of our first reactions were pretty good

on what seemed odd and like, I forget. And a lot of them were bad. My win-total guessing was poor last year. So this is more just like less about, like what we would do because I work for the NFL. I am not allowed to wager at all. And more just like, okay, this is who's going to be the favorites this year and some first thoughts. So we're getting these numbers from draft kings. We're seeing them for the first time. And Eric put up the

AFC East we will start with. Obviously there's two big favorites in this division and two lagging. So we got the bills at 10 and a half as the division favorites, the Patriots at 9.5. the jets at five and a half, and actually the dolphins expected to be worse than the jets, four and a half in terms of their over under wind total. I will get a little boring about out of division schedule in a second, but I will throw it to you, Seth, of just anything that stands out to you there that...

I think the, I mean, obviously the Patriots' strength of schedule was a huge talking point all season long, and Patriots fans are sick and tired of it. until I see AJ Brown and where he ends up it's hard for me not to think that there's going to be a little bit of a fallback

with a much tougher schedule this year but I think that they're probably going to get the receiver they want and I would go the over I'd go over the over on the Patriots yeah so when it comes to the schedules I didn't think any division had like a completely brutal schedule

I looked at it like first of all the NFC North to me and the NFC West are the two best divisions. They do not play each other. So they sort of avoid like the schedule of death. The hardest divisions, though, in terms of strength of schedule, and if you just think about the divisions,

to me, we're the AFC East, they would be in that mix. Out of division, they play the NFC North, which is really good, one to four. And then they play the AFC West, which obviously has the Chiefs and the Chargers and the Broncos. That's a pretty tough schedule. You do have the Jets and Dolphins, though, in the division, so that helps.

The NFC West, I think, is a hard schedule just because they have to play each other. they also face the NFC East and West. That's okay. And then the AFC West has to face the NFC West out of division. So to me those are like three of the tougher divisions. The Dolphins being projected as potentially the worst team in the NFL with a four and a half win total.

That checks out to me. I think the Jets are better on paper. And it would be, it would stand to suit that, okay, the Dolphins owner has never been shy about allegedly wanting to lose. a lot of games in a year where they should. The Malik Willis thing is the only thing that

throws everything into question where I don't understand other than they might just figure, okay, maybe we'll see and figure out whether Malik Willis could possibly be the guy, even though we're losing a bunch of games. And I don't think he's going to be like the Ryan Fitzpatrick that comes in and, you know,

wins more games than they're supposed to when they're trying to tank. It's rough. His top receivers right now are Jalen Tolbert, Greg Dolsich, and like a third round rookie. And it's not like the defense, the defense isn't bad,

but it's not stacked. Four and a half is, might be tough for them to get to, but that's about as low. You don't almost ever see a three and a half there. I think the Jets could be a little sneaky. And to me, it does make sense the bills are the favorites.

But it really shows you how much schedule matters in these things. No one's going to remember this. But the Patriots over under last year was actually eight and a half. And they won 14 games. It's only one game difference this year. And it's because last year, and it was right, they projected.

the schedule to be the easiest in the league. And this year, it's one of the hardest in the league. And so it just goes from eight and a half to nine and a half. Let's go to the AFC North and see who's the favorite there. It's clearly going to be the Ravens or the Bengals. And it's the Ravens by a couple games. The Ravens are projected to win 11.5 games. I don't know if anyone in the AFC will be above that.

You have the Bengals, two games back at nine and a half. Steelers at eight and a half. And the Browns at six. and a half, what do you think about the Ravens as a pretty sizey favorite over the Bengals? It's hard to win. No matter how good you are, it's hard to win 12 games. And I always have to remind myself, because I'm an old now, that there's 17 games. But it's Lamar Jackson, if he's just simply healthy for half as much as he was last year, I think you see the best version of Lamar Jackson. Because his health was clearly affecting him last year. When I think

about what do they have to worry about or what do they have to replace. I love Tyler Linderbaum. I thought that I really wanted the Texans to go after Tyler Linderbom, but at the end of the day, it's a center, you know? And yes, he did a lot of good things in that offense and for that offense, but that's not the kind of thing that all of a sudden sends your team into disarray when you've got a quarterback like Lamar Jackson. I would actually take the, boy, 11 and a half is a lot, but I would still take the over on that. So all these numbers look a little inflated, so I look over at the schedule, and yes, I do have the AFC North for what it's worth is maybe the easiest

out-of-division schedule. You play the two South divisions. I think the AFC South is solid, but it's not incredibly good. And I would say the NFC South on paper is probably the worst division in football. So they're kind of getting the bump up.

I disagree on them versus Bengals as being a huge difference. To me, the Bengals are closer to the Ravens than they are to the Steelers who just forevermore get projected as eight and a half. Like every year, it doesn't matter what their schedule is. They're eight and a half and they're always like right at it.

And so I'm a little surprised that they're closer to the Steelers on this than they are. You know, there's a little, this happened in New Orleans for a long time after, um, after Peyton left, which is people would keep talking about the Saints like Sean Payton was still their coach. Like, wow, they always figure out a way to get it done. Like, what are you talking? Sean Payton's long gone. It's a different coach.

Now the Steelers did bring in a coach who does find a way to win. win a bunch of regular season games. And then falter in the playoffs. So maybe it is more simple with the Steelers to just project that forward. Yeah. If I had to choose one, I would go over on the Steelers right now. Assuming Rogers back, I actually don't think it's a bad roster. You get the good schedule.

And it is interesting to me. You see the Browns as a higher win total. Two more than the Dolphins, one more than the Jets. I think that does reflect a pretty good schedule and roster outside of quarterback. but you're also, if you're picking the Browns, counting on either Shadur Sanders or Deshaun Watson combo to get you seven wins in an NFL season. Yeah, I don't, I think I told you,

I can't remember if I said at the beginning of this or not, but that I, like a lot of people, I just really respect what Andrew Barry has done with the entire roster, except for that big chunk at quarterback, which is kind of a big deal. When you have a catastrophic contract at quarterback, it's hard to overcome that.

And their defense, like, I guess their defense is so impressive to me, and I feel bad for their defensive players because the statistics will never reflect how good they are. So many times in games where you're watching the Browns and through midway through the third quarter, it's tough, it's competitive,

because the defense is playing as well as they are. But you just, the dam's going to break at some point. Yeah, I actually think of the one of the Bengals games last year was exactly that situation. I'm trying to think of it. Maybe it was right at the end of the year. They actually want, I'm thinking of it different,

where they just keep it so close forever, and then eventually they get kicked in. But new coordinator, it's the Browns. I don't know if the defense's going to be able to stay that good. They've won eight combined games the last two years. I would probably take the under,

just gut reaction. I don't. How many games did Schradur Sanders end up starting this year, do you think? He's going to start at some point. I think he was, if I have, I think he'll start the majority of them. Yeah. I'd say like 10 or 11 if I had to guess.

So they'll probably give everyone a shot. All right, let's go to the AFC South, your division. I don't know if you've seen this yet, but your Texans are co-favorites. Texans, Jaguars at nine and a half. So the same win total as the Patriots, for instance, the same as the Bengals, but a little notch below the teams like the Ravens and the Bills. And by the way, I do think it makes sense. The bills are favorites in the AFC East.

Colts behind them at seven and a half, pretty low, and the Titans at six and a half, same as the Browns. You know, the Colts being put closer to the Titans that they are to the Texans and the Jaguars is interesting. What do you think? Are your Texans the actual favorites? I think the Texans are the favorite right now. I am very intrigued by what the Jaguars are doing.

And the Jaguars have this way of kind of running these grand experiments where they, you know, they did it with Urban Mollars. I was cool with the Urban Meyer experiment knowing that it was going to be either boom or bust. I didn't know it was going to be a bust to the degree it was. But then with James Gladstone, the GM now, really, I mean, he's operating like he's the smartest guy in the universe, you know, is if he believes he's the smartest guy in the universe. And usually when you operate that way, it either ends up glorious or it ends up just being

an abysmal failure. But what they did in the offseason of this year was really, I mean, they just bet on everybody on the roster continuing to improve that. And then in the draft, I mean, they operated in the draft. Like they're just smarter than everybody else. And I think they based a lot of that on, you know, analytics. I don't know how much of an edge you can gain with analytics now compared to if you were the team that was first adopting it, you know, 10 and 20 years ago. And I say 10 years in football, 20 years ago in baseball. I just don't think you can all of a sudden be that much smarter than all of these other really smart people who are using the analytics. So for them, it's got to be, all right, are we going to sustain what we did in the second half of last season? Really after the addition of Jacobi Myers, I think a lot of that is sustainable. I think Cohen is actually a really smart guy. I've just seen Trevor Lawrence go through this before where, man, the offense clicks for him. But then that next year, when the defense is figured out how the offense is

clicked form, it falls back down to earth a little bit. So who's your favorite? You can't do a show in Houston. Oh, yeah. Yeah, no, the Texans are the favorite. And I base that largely on without even being overly optimistic about the improvements the offense can make. I think they are going to have a better rushing offense this year, which is going to make

it easier for C.J. Stroud. And the Texans defense could actually, they could be better than they were last year, as long as they stay healthy, which is obviously always a big wild card. Co-favorts make sense to me. I think Colts fans should see that seven and a half and be like, huh, it's interesting how low consensus is on the Colts, but they've lost some people and you're just unsure about Daniel Jones's health. I looked at their schedule overall as somewhere in the middle.

They play the AFC North, which is tough out of division, but then the NFC East, and then you get the games in the division, which could be tougher. I saw a tweet from you, Seth, during the last week, where you did a pronunciation. Can you say this for us? Fabiichi Wee Woo. Okay.

Yeah. You would think it was in YU or something, but no, it's Fabiichi Weewu out of Oklahoma. Fabii Weewu. Part of, you know, just a bunch of investments on line play. Are you buying? Are you buying what they've done with the line play? I would say on both sides of the ball.

Yeah, they, the, The theme of the off season for the Texans was to be more physical on offense. You know, David Montgomery is a physical back that can win in short yardage, can break tackles, do all those things. And on the offensive line, if you look at some of the acquisitions they made with their veteran players, Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller are both more physical run blockers than the guys they're replacing. They re-signed at Ingram at right guard.

Not as good in pass protection as he has as a run blocker. He's a very physical, aggressive run blocker. They draft Keelan Rutledge, who's a very physical guy. Wee Wu, likewise with his scouting report. And it's really been all about, all right, are we going to actually run the football? Are we going to have a respectable rushing attack in general? Because they've been one of the worst rushing attacks in the league every year that C.J. Stroud's been there.

And then can we use that to set up play action, et cetera, et cetera, or just stay at, you know, keep the chains moving? I think that they, I like that they stuck to the same strategy. With draft picks as it is with every single draft pick ever, we just have to wait and see if they work out. I do want to give my, I haven't given many over or under, like what stands out. The Texans feels a little low, nine and a half.

I mean, it feels like the right number, but I feel like I'm going to be high on them. You're telling me the Texans only need to win 10 games. I am still believing in C.J. Stroud. Jacksonville is a little more up in the air, but I actually do think Houston and Jacksonville are probably a little closer to the top of the AFC than they are just, you know, nine, you know, well, will they be able to repeat it? And so I kind of like both of those, but especially I like Houston over.

Yeah, Jacksonville, I think the pass rush, they were, people were hoping to bolster the pass rush there and they didn't necessarily. But I think that that offense combined with Cohen, I think, has a potential to really sustain what they worked on last year. I would take the over on both of those teams. And with the Texans, like, it's hard to say, you know, it's hard to just lean on defense that much, but they retained pretty much every starter.

And then they improved with, with adding the safety from Philadelphia, Blankenship. Like, so they actually now have zero holes in the secondary compared to last year when it was a revolving door at the safety position opposite of Kalin Bullock. So that's where I do think realistically, on paper at least right now, they look like they could be a better defense than last year. Yeah, I think the Titans aren't going to be pushovers, and I think that number reflects that.

Let's go to the AFC West, where the Chiefs have just been favorites, you know, projected to win, 11 and a half year after year. This year it's 10 and a half, but it is interesting, and this is why I wanted to do this exercise. It is just interesting to see without knowing Mahomes' status that immediately they're still put in as co-favorits, the Chargers at 10 and a half, both ahead of the Broncos who are at nine and a half, and then the Raiders pulling up the rear at five and a half. So it's a lot of faith in a system just rebounding. And that feels, it's weird, but it feels right to me because there's a reason they won 12 to 13 games every single season and Mahomes is coming off of

the injury, but they lost so many one-score games last year. They were, a very unlucky team. They really profiled more as like a 10 win type of team last year, who was a little unlucky. And so I don't mind them being co-favorts, but it's an interesting spot to be to be put in. I think the biggest thing about the chiefs for me is you look at the last few years now. They haven't been nearly the same as what they were offensively at their peak, but they were buoyed by that incredibly opportunistic defense. And I don't know if the improvements and the additions they made on defense are enough to get them back. to where they were defensively.

And it's a lot of those one score games from two years ago that came with, you know, opportunistic sacks, strip sacks, interceptions, all of those things. And the Chiefs defense was good last year. They were solid, but they just weren't enough to kind of offset some of the, the mediocrity on offense. And I don't know if you just regain that as easily as like, oh, okay, now all of a sudden we're just going to rely on Pat Mahomes to pull us out of this in the last two minutes of a game. So I think there's still obviously a very good football team, but with Mahomes' injury

right now, and I know he's looking good and he's going to be out there practicing and everything, I would take the under on the, I think a lot of people are looking at the chiefs and judging them by the logo on their helmet more so than the reality of the situation. Yes, and as Patrick Claibon likes to point out, these numbers are more about just getting everyone to spend and lose their money. They're not a reflection of reality, but they are about as good of a predictive thing that we have. Yeah, the future. The future is by far the ones where Vegas is just telling you. Come on in, Sucker.

Yeah, we know how you feel about this. It's been a relief that the NFL doesn't let me. But if I had to choose one out of this first reaction out of this group to go, I probably would take the Suckers bet, which would be over Denver, nine and a half. I don't really see any reason that they should not be either co-favorits or favorites in this division. I think they're a little better than the other nine and a half win teams. There is a tough schedule. They got to play each other, and they got to play the NFC West.

And so that's why this division, they were all a little artificially deflated because they all have pretty tough schedule. Let's go to the NFC. The NFC East, which I kind of had as a medium division and a medium schedule. The Eagles favorites, as always. What's interesting in standing out to me here is that the two teams, the Giants and commanders, projected to tie for last place, have a pretty high win total, seven and a half. each, and then you have the Cowboys behind them at nine and a half. So I do think you're getting a little bit of Cowboys hype that they've had a good offseason

and good draft, but it's basically the same order we've gotten most years. Last year, of course, the commanders, I think going into the year was like over under nine and a half or ten and a half. One of the only best bets that I had that was actually right was there under, but they're much more reasonable here at seven and a half. What of those four teams stands out to you the most? I think I guess the Eagles just because, you know, again, going back to what the market thinks and what they say, I think the perception on the Eagles,

and given that I know and I understand that the Eagles follow a pattern of just being very disappointing and then blowing everybody out of the water the next day. But I think I would just, I got to go with the under on the Eagles right now. Ooh. sight unseen i'd probably generally go over when they're at 10 and a half Cowboys nine and a half i feel good about i was hoping it would be at eight and a half though and then i would feel even better but i'm gonna be high on the on the cowboys but i do find it interesting the giants and the commanders are both significantly ahead of you know the

the bottom rungs of the NFL here in terms of expectations at seven and a half there so i will be choosing one of their unders i'll have to think about which one it is the john harbaugh I do, I have a lot of faith in his ability to like take what has been an underperforming team and just get, get what you should be getting out of that team. Like, does it, does the product look? What should you be getting? Maybe like seven and ten. Yeah.

Yeah, right, right. Yeah. Just, but not an abysmal failure. I mean, there's so much, there's so much about just being a respectable team in the NFL that has to do with running a tight ship, you know, and just having, yeah, basically making sure the trains run on time that you can, you can improve a situation. just by having a guy that knows what he's doing at the helm. Yeah, this is tough because I feel like high on almost all of them.

I might have to be low on the commanders this year. All right, NFC North. There's going to be some team that's very disappointing in the NFC North. There was a scenario where they could have had one of the tougher schedules because they all have to play each other. But out of division, you play the NFC South. I think that's a win. And you play the AFC East, which has the dolphins and the jets.

and to me you're just looking for like, what's a game where we're heavy favorites? That's a real big edge. And so you'll have a fair share of them. And that's why they're all high numbers. The entire division predicted to be at or better than 500, the Packers and the Lions, first with 10 and a half wins,

the Bears are not the favorites. They're at nine and a half. And then the Vikings at eight and a half. Man, what? I just, you know what? This is where I just, I love the lions and I love their culture. And I love Dan Campbell.

and it makes me want to say, okay, between the lions and the Packers, that the Lions are going to be the one that goes over 10 and a half. But do they have, like, have they done enough to address some of the losses that they had to take? They're at that point in the evolution of their franchise where they've drafted well. They have all these guys, but now you lose, you lose on the offensive line. You lose David Montgomery, and I know he had taken a backseat to Jemir Gibbs. Oh, this pains me. It's so division.

Yeah. It's going to give me a head. headache because they're building in the kind of natural fallback from the bears. They're at nine and a half. That's a fairly low number. Has them at third, but they had a lot of close wins. Like,

I get it. I honestly probably would, the best thing I would feel, because I don't think there's much of a gap between one and four is riding with Kyler and going over Vikings, eight and a half. After they came through to hit their over last year by winning the last five games, they somehow got a winning record.

I think they can do it again. I love that Brian Flores defense. Let's go to the NFC South. where I'm most curious who they have in second. Okay, the answer is nobody or everybody. Because this is one like going into it. I'm like, I wonder who the second is. And there could be division odds that I'm not seen of like

who's favored to win the division. So that spells it out a little bit. The Buccaneers at eight and a half in terms of their win total. And then the Saints, Panthers and Falcons all at seven and a half. To me, this is the one that stands out to me of any any over unders I've seen throughout I feel the most confident

in a couple in this division but I don't want to give it away right now I want Seth Payne to tell me what his favorite pick in this division would be over or under I want to say I believe in you Tyler Shuck I believe I believe

in the New Orleans Saints damn it seven and a half I think that makes sense I think they had a really sensible offseason and they have a lot of boomer bust picks. I've started to watch Chuck.

I'm starting to watch some of the second year quarterbacks. And I mean, he's an impressive player. I agree. I would have them in second if I had to choose. My two that I was talking about, immediate, just quick reactions without thinking too hard that I think are maybe my two favorite of the entire exercise so far is over Buccaneers, eight and a half. I just think it's a good roster.

They are just a better team than that. Like I still am buying a world, and it's not the most likely world, but a world. where they win 12 or 13 games. So at 8 and a half, I think they're the class of this division. I think they've got the best roster by far. And you can see the upside with the quarterback in that division. Yeah, I would, okay, I feel a lot more comfortable about that. I thought I was picking who is going to be second in the division.

But, yeah, I don't feel good about the over on any of those second place guys. No, if I had to pick one, it would be the Saints for sure, which are a little more boomer boss. the Panthers, I don't know, but the Falcons under is one of my favorites that I've seen so far. To me, I think the Falcons have a real chance to be closer to the bottom of the NFL than winning the division. I know there's routes where that could be wrong. Stafansky's coached up, you know, the Browns at certain points. But I haven't really understood their offseason.

It's a big change in the front office. And the coach, do the players fit the coach? Are they really that talented anyways? I actually thought they were really well coached on defense last year. Yes, they kept Jeff Oberg, their coordinator. But in general, that looks like a six and 11, five and 12 type of team to me. You know, that defense is kind of not constructed to withstand the trend in the league right now of teams running the ball more.

I mean, it's just they're so undersized and they're impressive the way they run around and everything. And they're fast. But there's just, there's certain weaknesses that are going to show up time and time again until you start to just have a little. a little bit more of a balanced philosophy on defense. And one of the reasons that all those numbers were pretty low, yes, they get to play each other in division,

so that's a positive. But they play the two North. That's a pretty tough out-of-division schedule. So they're going to be, like almost that entire division, maybe except for a couple Buccaneers games, are going to be underdogs against the entire NFC North, like every game. And then you also have to deal with Lamar and Joe Burrow and the AFC North.

Like, it's a tough out-of-division schedule to make that. leave for them. All right, let's wrap up with the NFC West, the best division, I think, in football, because there's three teams in this division that I can imagine winning the Super Bowl. The Rams are the favorites, a game ahead of the 49ers in Seahawks. They have a 10 and a half win total. The 49ers in Seahawks do. The Rams are at 11 and a half, so they are tied for the highest in the NFL, just off the top of my head. That was with the Ravens. One thing I'm noticing, there were not a lot of teams projected to win 11, you know, 11 and a half. half. It's a lot more concentrated in the middle. The Cardinals now tie the dolphins in dead

last with only four and a half win total. I believe those were the only two teams that were at four and a half. What do you think about the Rams as the favorites over the defending champs? That's a if I look at those three teams between the Rams, the 49ers, and the Seahawks. So the Seahawks, I still, I need to see what it looks like with Brian Fleury as the offensive coordinator. And I know he's got the long background with the fours. 49ers, people respect them a bunch and everything. But there's something about the way Clint Kubiak operated that offense and got what he did out of Sam Darnold and Jackson Smith and Jigba, that I don't know if you can just say, oh yeah, a new guy coming in, he'll do exactly the same thing.

The 49ers, they just, every year, they started to feel kind of like, remember with the San Antonio Spurs where you would just keep saying every year, well, they're going to get old. No, no, this is the year they get old. And they just, it took forever. They just wouldn't die. And that's what the 49ers feel like. but this might be the year they actually get old. So between those two teams and then the Rams, I think I just, I got to go with the quarterback. And Matt Stafford,

even though the Texans opened with the Rams last year. And at that point, you know, for the weeks leading up to that game, Matt Stafford was still getting in his science trailer to get treatment because nobody knew if he was even going to play. And then he reeled off that, that performance that he did.

So I'm going to, I'm going to go with the Rams. Yeah. of that group, the things that stand out to me the most, probably just, again, I think it's sometimes good to go with your first gut reaction is, yeah, I'll take the defending champions, maybe most complete roster in the NFL at 10 and a half and take the over. Like I'm not going to think about it too hard.

And then probably the other one that stands out is I would probably take the Cardinals over at 4.5 because I do think it's an okay. I know they don't have a quarterback, and it's a brutal schedule to have to be stuck in this division. and that's why the number is so low. You also play the AFC West out of division, NFC East. That's a relatively hard out of division combo. But I just don't think they're that bad a roster.

Like, I think if you put them in the AFC South, and like they could win seven, eight, eight games or something. And so you just got to get to five. I think they could do that. No, I think you're 100% right about the roster. I think it's not as cataclysmically bad as you would think. And then Jeremiah Love, if he just, if he really is that, guy that can kind of unlock everybody else that there's a potential they could do something

with him this year. It is crazy. The schedule matters so much because the 49ers were coming off a total disaster season in 2023, six wins. And they were still projected last year to win 10 and a half games, which people thought was kind of crazy. And you know what? They won 12. And then here they are with a much harder schedule. Last year was a little easier for that division. And they're coming off a great season where, and I think they're a Super Bowl contender. it's just 10 and a half again. And it's, it's these numbers that just,

they stay around the same because Kyle Shanan, like McVeigh, and maybe Liam Cohen could join them. And this is what I think answers your James Gladstone point from like 30 minutes ago. Yeah.

It's like, if the coach is good enough, he can make some crazy strategies look really smart. Like the 49ers have had some crazy drafts. Kyle Shanham makes them look smart. The less need and the Rams have had a great front office, but trading their first round pick every year for, you know,

almost every year for 10 years is pretty crazy. And they've made that work, I think, because they have a great coach. Can Liam Cohen be that guy? We'll see. I don't know. But Shanahan and McVeigh, to me, are the two guys until proven otherwise. Well, and that defense was just so banged up last year for a long stretch of time that you'd imagine that at the very least getting that, whatever, you know, whatever they can do with that defense. There's more upside there. See, I told you this was going to go fast.

It's May, you know, we're just chewing the fat and having fun. And it wasn't that fast at all, Seth. It was just fun to honk with you. Thank you. Oh, yeah. No, thanks for having me on, man. I know I enjoy this. I get so excited when you invite me on to NFL daily.

I really, no, I genuinely do. I was upset your other two co-hosts weren't here, but that's cool. They didn't know. You know, it is the off season for everyone. So we're trying to like spread around. We're trying to spread around the off days. But, you know, our favorites are coming up this week. Jordan Rodriguez, joining me in the studio on Tuesday.

Patrick Claibon, also going to be in the studio. We're going to send out a prompt for mailbag questions. So everyone that's listening right now, check out those prompts and send in some good questions for later in the week. But yes, most importantly, check out Seth Payne on YouTube, Seth Payne Show, and then Payne and Pendercast. Thank you to Seth. We'll see you on Tuesday. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.