NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 2026 Week 3 Picks with Nick Shook

Episode Date: September 25, 2026

Gregg Rosenthal and Nick Shook make their picks against the spread for Week 3 of the NFL season. Find out where the guys are leaning in games between the Bengals and Steelers, Jets and Lions, Titans and Giants, Ravens and Cowboys, Seahawks and Commanders, Raiders and Saints, and Chargers and Bills. NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Bell, connection is everything. Never go in together on Aaron Rogers. ever again. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm with Nick Shook. It's week three picks against the spread time. Shook, we are not allowed to agree on a game this week. We've done it. Back to back weeks. When we both go in on the worst offense in football, the Pittsburgh Steelers and we lose, they don't get anywhere near covering. Then we are in the penalty box for one week. We cannot agree on a game. Yeah, I was going to say, I feel like I'm in time out. Like, we just made one bad decision together, an ill-advised decision, and all of a sudden, my face is in the corner.

Like, okay. Thank you. Thank you, Steelers. Appreciate it. Look, they are the number one defense in the league, according to EPA, according to DVOA. I thought that game watching it was much closer than the score, but can't go with them again. So what we do on this show, each and every week, we pick three games against the spread. Last season was my best season.

Even with a bad playoffs, it went 38 and 24. We were resuming. So have faith. It takes a while. I'm two and four on the season this year. We lost on the Texans as well last week. I did get the Raiders right. And when I went through my long list of picks,

I wrote down like nine picks before the week. I was five and four. The long upsets were better. Shook, you also went one and two. You lost on your Jaguars and you won going away on your Panthers. That should almost count as two. That's three and three. Let's get into this week's picks.

That's old news. You're even on the season. You're doing fine. We're going to turn it around this week. I will give you first pick here. Who do you want? Okay. First pick.

And since we can't go in together, what do I feel the most confident about? Well, Greg, you know, you doubted them last week. You continue to doubt them. And for some reason, I have to take up the mantle of the opposite corner of the state of Ohio that I'm from. And I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals again,

minus three and a half over the Steelers. Yes, I know this is the number one defense in terms of EPA in terms of DVOA. and I respect this defense. But I don't respect this offense, and I have a lot of appreciation for the Bengals defense. So I think the combination of the two gets them over that three and a half point requirement,

and they end up winning this and moving on to three and out. You know, you're a responsible guy with your money. We work for the NFL. You have for a long time. You're not allowed to gamble, and you haven't done these picks either. Someone could say from the outside, you're making an emotional swing against the Steelers

after they cross you. Now, the real, like, cold-blooded killers, they get the team right one week and then go against them the next week. That's what you got to do. But here it sounds like you're acting a little emotionally. The Steelers have changed up some things up front. They're going to start their first round pick, Maxi Hanachor. They're going to start, I believe it's Brock Hoffman. They're the former cowboy at right guard.

So making a change there. What do you think about that matchup up front? The fact that they're already changing their plans, a very good Bengals pass rush right. now against that front for Pittsburgh. Yeah, through two weeks, I think what's really transformed this Bengals defense is the arrival of Dexter Lawrence. And it wasn't just, you know, stuffing the Texans on fourth and short. It's not just, you know, racking up a few pressures.

It's the way that he forces offenses to adjust on a per play basis. So the idea of changing one of your interior offensive linemen in the week that you're going up against Dexter Lawrence concerns me. They have a good center next to him, so I don't worry about that as much. But this is a Steelers offensive line that I think had built a pretty solid. reputation for itself last year. Not a tackle as much as in the interior. So I don't feel very encouraged by that.

I do want to see Ihanature play it right tackle, though. That was one of my favorite tackles coming out of this class. And that should give them an upgrade. But again, this is somebody with not a lot of experience against a good front. So, yeah, I think this Bengals defense is still going to capitalize. It's going to look pretty similar to the dysfunctional, inept offense that we saw in New England for the Steelers. last week.

I wrote down about eight, nine games on my long list this week. This was not one of them. The three and a half felt a little big. If I was forced, I would be on your side as well. Based on what we've seen so far, Bengals are a top five team in the NFL. I'm with you. I'm going to start with the Jets. I'm going plus six and a half.

They're in Detroit. I just try not to overthink these early in the season. I think these are two teams in the middle of the NFL right now. The Jets, I test and statistics have looked like an average team. The Lions have looked like an average team. Maybe their offense, not quite at their very peak, but very good. And their defense, you know, one of the lackluster groups in the league.

Six and a halfs a lot. If you really want to get crazy, the Jets right now are third in the NFL and yardage differential, which I like, you know, they're moving the ball better than their opponents. obviously the opponents are really important to consider at this point in the season. The Lions are coming off a tough Bills game. But the Jets, they took care of a Titans team where they looked much better. And they outgained the Packers by a significant amount. I just think they're a solid team.

I think they'll protect Gino. It wouldn't surprise me if they win. That's where I'm at. If you're giving six points and it wouldn't surprise me if you win, I'm just going to take the six and a half points. It's so funny because I looked through all of these, and this is the one I stashed in my back pocket as my extra with the hope that like I...

It's gone. The extra's gone. You better hope I don't take another. You were probably going to take it. And so I just, that's why I stashed it instead of using it as one of my top three. And for all the reasons that you just mentioned, I think opponent really does matter when you're evaluating the Jets right now

and conditions that they played in last week really just skews the entire evaluation of their week two performance. Yes, they blew that lead. And that kind of hurt me because I am buying into the Jets this year. but against the Lions, I can see Gino Smith behind a solid, a very good offensive line through two weeks, just distributing the ball among his playmakers. Garrett Wilson having a big day.

This line's defense, they're not quite in the can't stop a nosebleed territory, but they're headed there. I know they've had two tough matches, but I saw what Tyler Shuck could do against his defense in week one in the second half, and then you put Gino in there with the weapons that he has. I think they're going to go for a ton of yardage as well, and this was one of the ones where I was like, duh, I can't believe that line exists.

Yeah, I'm definitely going Jets here. So I'm with you, even though I'm not going with the pick. Okay, I like it. The Aaron Glenn factor of it all actually almost worries me a little bit. I don't know why. Him going back there. In theory, okay, he knows how that offense and Jared Goff goes, but they know what he wants to do.

I just think they've looked well coached on defense this year. They've gotten good development out of the guys in the secondary Azaria Thomas. And up front, even the first play of the game stands out to me last week. David Bailey, like saw a screen coming, gets in the way of it, and then goes and makes the tackle. Like, they've just played like a smart, well-coached team. I don't know if they're going to win. I just think it'll be a close game.

So I like the Jets plus six and a half. What is your second pick? All right. Well, this is tough because now I'm thinking about it from a draft perspective and I'm trying to project where you're going to go. What's your position? Don't, don't.

What are the odds we have the same picks? I mean, you did say Jets. I don't think any of the other ones I have, maybe one of my extras would be predictable. So don't worry about. All right. All right. I'll go into sending order,

how I group them. We're going to go, and I am not piggybacking off the idea that this team lost their starting quarterback for the regular season, but we are going to go, Titans plus two and a half over the Giants. Look, I think that the situation with the Giants at quarterback is obviously discouraging. I also really like the way the Titans played last week against an Eagles team that is superior to them, and I believe that they can carry that momentum to their first victory of the season. And the idea that they were the underdog in this one just made me even more confident in them.

And so I feel good about their chances. Now, of course, this is the first time they're going to go on the road this year. And that'll be a challenge. But, I mean, the Giants took an absolute gut punch emotionally last week. So I think it's going to be difficult for them to bounce back against a Titans team that's starting to figure it out a little bit. And I could see Cam Ward and company doing enough offensively to win this game. And so for that reason, I'm rolling with the Titans.

So I had a nine-team long list. again if anyone cares yeah and like then i narrowed it down to five which i was really strongly considering the giants minus two and a half were not one of my five but they were one i wrote down i'll be rooting for you now because again we're on the same team we want our listeners to be right it did feel like you got the worst giants effort possible last week you're back at home who has the edge at quarterback james winston versus cam ward who's to say i don't know that there's an advantage one's more likely to turn the ball over in multiple times than the other

and that would be James Winston which is crazy but yes Cam Ward has avoided mistakes this year he also hasn't really been making plays they obviously look better last week and that's ultimately why I stayed away

their loss of Brian Burns is really important and so that limits their pass rush and you think of their defensive line as an asset it really wasn't against the Rams they got bodied a little bit. And now without Brian Burns,

like you can attack in the interior. I see you. Okay. I feel you. I'm going to go to Rio. I'm going to go to Rio with my second pick. I'm going Ravens minus three and a half. Was that on your list?

No. I felt that was a little too chalky for me. Yeah, it is. I had a couple chalky picks. I'm only going to pick one. I just think the run game is a force of nature. You know, the Cowboys answered some questions last week.

week. They still had some blown assignments. The Ravens were unlucky to lose that game. I think it took some great plays from Tyler Shook and the Saints to win it. There weren't many possessions. A couple short yard situations where the Ravens got a little too aggressive. But I like the play calling. I just think in a shootout where the Cowboys have not shown to me that they're going to be able to stop the run at all this year, I trust the Ravens to put up 35 to 40. And then I thought about the coaching on all four sides here. And to me, Minter versus Brian Schottenheimer, when the Ravens defense is on the field, they might get Namdi Madabweke back this week, is a great matchup. And I think the Cowboys talent is better on offense. They probably win that matchup,

but the coaching is good on both sides. When it's Declan Doyle and the Ravens' offense, I've been so impressed by what I've seen, especially in the running game. I think that that's a mismatch right now in terms of first-time coordinators. Declan Doyle versus Christian Parker. They put up about 38. The Cowboys put 30, but they just make a mistake late, something like that. And we give Rio something that can remember for a long time.

Okay. I like the way that you see this game unfolding because I agree. And I think it really kind of just defines my lack of trust in the Cowboys right now. What I think is lost in last week's result is that, and look, this is the what if game. game and I get that, and I don't like to play the what-if game. But watching the flow of that game, if Jane Daniels doesn't get hurt, I think that's like a one-score game through four-quarter. I think that the commanders play them tightly all the way to the end. And that's no knock on Marcus

Marriota. It's just Daniels was making so many plays with his legs that was just absolutely shredding the Cowboys defense. They had no response for it. And through two weeks, I haven't really seen all that much from Christian Parker to think that he's going to be able to adjust on the fly. Now, my big drawback, that's why it's chalky, by the way, is because I feel like the Ravens just have the advantage versus that defense. You feel like the public is going to be on Ravens minus three and a half. Yes, yes. But my big concern with this is what was Declan Doyle doing last week

when he went away from the run so quickly? He regretted it. It was like two possessions. You know what the bigger problem? I thought was that Jesse Minner slowly died on defense and then the game was suddenly over. It was one third and one call where they went for a deep shot that would have been there, but your wide receiver is Chris Moore.

You're probably not getting Zay Flowers. That's one of the reasons the number. is three and a half. I just think ultimately they're in different classes. And I don't think he's going to go away from the run in this game. Especially if Ronnie Stanley doesn't play at left tackle, which would be a bit of a concern for Baltimore. All right, your third in final pick.

All right, now I'm going full chalk, and it's Seahawks minus seven of the commanders. Okay. The commanders don't have Daniels. That's another team that takes a bit of a gut punch. I have confidence in Marcus Mariotto to keep the ship afloat, but it lowers their potential just overall ceiling against that defense. I just don't think that they're,

I think it's going to look a lot like the game against Arizona did last week, in which they're going to try their best, and they're going to lean on their go-to guys, and ultimately you're going to get outscored and not be able to move the ball or finish drives, at least, like the Cardinals did. So I have a ton of respect and appreciation for who the Seahawks are right now. With Drew Locke at quarterback, they didn't miss a beat.

And against this commander's defense, I think he will find more of a challenge, but ultimately it won't be enough of a challenge to prevent them from winning by at least a touchdown. I can see that. I agree if I had to take one. This was a sneaky rivalry back in the day. I don't know if you remember. They played a couple of playoff games.

It was like an NFC wildcard rivalry. The Seahawks defense is going to be tested more later in the year. But man, they eat up like bad offenses. And they just put that boa constrictor on in the second half of games. I still have my doubts about this commander's offensive line. I think you'll get a representative effort here with Washington at home in this game. I think they can be competitive. It sounds like Sam Darnold is going to play.

So I'm with you. And whoever it is at quarterback for Seattle, I would be with you. Yeah, it doesn't matter that much to me. What's your last pick? I thought when you said, Chalk, you were going to go Eagles minus four and a half. That fact that Case Keenom's only giving away four and a half points on Monday night football, as we tape this, it's not confirmed, but it's very likely case Keenum. I'm not going to take that one.

It almost felt like they're- Good, because I would advise against it. Why? Why? Because let's talk about this game before I make my third pick, because I do think their defense has been pushed around a little bit. Their offensive line has some real issues. There are health availability questions for Philadelphia. Tight end is a huge problem for them because they can't block

and they don't have depth at receiver of Philadelphia. And yeah, you know, it's, It's Case Keenum. Why, you believe in Ben Johnson in the running game that much that they can just keep it close? I think it's one of those tricky games where you're in primetime on the road. And all the issues that you just described are exactly why. The offensive line has not looked very good. I have confidence in Jalen Hurts to overcome that.

But in that setting, you know, on the road, primetime Monday night game against a team that is looking to bounce back, a fan base that's desperate for signs of encouragement and reasons to be optimistic without their quarterback. And a week to prepare, I think Ben Johnson could cook up a scheme that could keep that game really close. I'm hoping so because we're going to be doing the Monday night recap with Jordan Roderick. And I want some good primetime games. We need them.

Okay. So it comes down to two other picks. That was in my top five. The Raiders are the one I'm not going to go with. But I do like the Raiders getting three and a half in New Orleans. My third pick, you got to sometimes take the pick that's just screaming to you, even if it's hard. Last week, in the end, I, like, didn't pick the same. plus eight and a half as my last one.

It was fourth just because it's like, oh, it was a little hard to pull that trigger. They went and won it straight up. And from the author that gave you that one, here comes Chargers plus seven and a half in Buffalo this week. Such a big game. You got to look at the course of the whole season, shook, and think about how important this game is for the Los Angeles Chargers.

And can you imagine this team at 0 and 3? I can, but I can imagine them giving the best effort possible here. one thing I did this week, too, I went and checked where these lines opened way back in the day, like when it first opened. Can you guess what the line was, like in the off season, when this game opened? Chargers at Bills, week three. Chargers plus two and a half? Yeah, it was three. So you pretty much nailed it. Yeah. Okay.

A lot's changed. Injury-wise, though, that the Chargers, other than tight end, like, I think they have enough to get it done. They've had a ton of penalties. They have to clean things up. They've been discombobulated. I get all these things. I do look at like how the season plays out in general and the bill's defense has struggled so far. They did get Ed Oliver back at practice on Thursday, so that's good. DJ Moore and Kean Coleman weren't seen at the early portions of practice, so we'll see. We don't know about their availability. Ultimately, I just think the chargers are too talented, too good, too cohesive, the coaching should be better

that they can compete in this game. I don't think they're going to win. I definitely don't know if they're going to win. I think it's going to be a good game. They're going to make the bills sweat. And I know our producer Eric Roberts supports me on this one. He's worried about this as a trap game. All you got to do is keep it within a touchdown chargers.

I believe in you. I actually like this. You make a great case. And there's something to be said about a team that's O and 2 and hears the noise outside and is not afraid to react to the. the noise at the podium that they will enter this game with the backs against the wall type of feeling within the team and give maximum effort like you described.

And they understand that they'll be walking into a raucous crowd, you know, in Buffalo. And it might be good for them to get away from home, to be completely honest, given how they've played for the first two weeks at home. And Justin Herbert, like, snapped at a reporter kind of this week. He was asked about a lack of vocal leadership if there was a leadership issue with the team. And he gave a response. the reporter responded and then he responded and he said and that's why I'm going to stop you right there there's no problem with leadership in this team and I was like oh like you know how sometimes you go

into something and you're a little too high on yourself you're feeling a little too confident and life smacks you in the face yeah it humbles you and then you got to you realize oh actually I do have to put x amount of work in and X amount of effort and preparation and then you get back to it and then you improve that could be the charges not saying they're going to win the game like you said, I could very much see them being an O-N-3 team, but it could be a very interesting game, and that's what matters here. And I could see them winning. It is a long season, and they're going to have their share of wins because of the schedule. They're in a brutal spot. But, yeah, Eric points out to me, the bills. We're in the Nickel City jerseys. Those things are so ugly.

And then Joe Brady this week, just talking about the smoke detectors and there's a fire in the house. He thinks there's problems. It's like, calm down. We'll have a nice little competitive game. I think you're going to do well over the course of the season, essentially, always picking against what happened a week ago. When something happens dramatic, when a team plays their worst a week ago and one team plays their best, it usually comes back to level setting. And I think the Chargers level setting is at least competitive.

My extra picks, just for fun, like I mentioned, the Raiders plus three and a half. I think they've done a better team than the Saints so far. The Saints are being carried by exceptional quarterback play and exceptional passing game. carrying the rest of the team, I think they can win this game. It's three and a half. That extra half, the hook does get me there.

And then kind of talking about these, you know, just things, how you see the season playing out. Do I really see the Bucks as like an 0 and 3 team? Is there that big a difference between them and the Vikings? I kind of like the Bucks to level set this week and get that win. But I wasn't bold enough to take that as my pick. I wonder if this is the week that we start to see some, return on the hype surrounding the

Vuccane's past rush, especially Ruben Bain, Yaya Diavi. They were out of sorts last week. I think the Browns actually generated a higher pressure rate than they did, which is remarkable. But I wondered this is the week because we really don't know through two weeks what the Vikings

look like offensively with Kyler Murray because he only played like two series before he got knocked out with a concussion. So it's a wild card that could produce that exact scenario that you speak of. And that's going to be one of the more intriguing games of the week, not necessarily because I have a high opinion of the Buccaneers, but because they're another team backs against the wall,

what do you do against the Vikings who have not found much consistency offensively and still need to figure that out? Yeah, to me, it's a little bit of a toss-up. I had the Jags and the Texans also on my long list. I just think the Jags are a better team than the Patriots and the Texans are a better team than the Colts. But I'm picking emotionally here that I'm staying away from the Texans. It's the same reason why I assigned you, Nick Shook, the Texans to watch on Sunday,

because Jordan and I have given bad juju. This is not how I should really be picking games. I believe in Houston. But this week, I'm going to stay away from them. All right, to recap, the Nick Shook picks this week are Cincinnati minus three and a half at Pittsburgh. Tennessee on the road getting two and a half against the Giants and the Seahawks favored by seven and a half, depending on where you look over the commanders. What were you going to say there, Shook?

That's the last time I allow myself to be too busy and just let you assign games. I knew that it was an emotional assignment. It's not that it's a bad game, but I'm just like, oh, he doesn't want to watch the Texans live because he's been hurt by them already. It's true.

I'm a little ashamed, and maybe people with kids can understand this if they have kids that root for different teams than they root for it. Between my Texan Super Bowl pick and my son rooting for the Texan, it's mostly my son. I'm much more emotionally invested in them than the Patriots.

It hurts you when you hurt your, when you hurt your blood. Let's get going, Houston. I just recapped Shook's games. Let's get out of here. I picked the Jets plus six and a half in Detroit. I like the Ravens minus three and a half in Rio against the Cowboys. And then I'm taking the Chargers plus seven and a half in Buffalo and a whole mess of extra picks, including the Raiders and the Eagles.

That's it. the show this week. I consider this the proper end of the show week. The next time you see, Nick Shook and I, he will be recapping that big Texans win against the Colts. I'm sorry, Colts. Me, Jordan, and Shook on Sunday night.

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