NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 37th Annual Fantasy Extravaganza

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

In a room filled with heroes - Dan Hanzus, Gregg Rosenthal, and Marc Sessler get you ready to win your fantasy league with the 60th Fantasy Extravaganza. Before the Extravaganza, the heroes get caught... up on news from around the league including Dalvin Cook (9:20) and Ezekiel Elliott (5:03) finally getting contracts. After the break, the Fantasy Extravaganza begins with NFL Networks' own Marcas Grant and Michael F. Florio going over the average draft position of some fantasy football big hitters (19:58). Up next, Pat Daughtery from NBC Sports/Rotoworld to talk about the quarterback positions (42:27). Finally, Evan Silva from Establish The Run tells you who to draft and who to avoid with his sleepers and busts list (01:08:45).  Note: Time codes approximate.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Hello and welcome to the 34th annual around the NFL fantasy extravaganza with special guests. Marcus Grant and Michael F. Florio. Love those guys. Greg, Brick by Brick, Rosenfall. Roto Pat, Patrick Dardy. The Big Fish. Evan Silva.
Starting point is 00:00:49 Also, Mark is here, and now you're a host. And the two-time League of Record Champion should have been three if Brees Hall didn't get fucking hurt. Dan Hanses. Oh, unbelievable introduction. Thank you and welcome, yes, to the 37th annual round the NFL fantasy extravaganza. It is, Mark, it is that time again. I mean, the way that I was billed there, which I did notice.
Starting point is 00:01:22 Everybody got introduced. Yeah, sure. I mean, I will allow that to reflect my level of. effort on this show if that's what you'd like we're doing this old yarn again it's not an old mark gets forgotten enough fantasy show uh you know this is one of the only uh shows my son walker listens to every year it's getting into his fantasy league and you just have to drop a performative f bomb right off the top i tried i tried to uh introduce the boys to hard knocks episode two uh yesterday you know tying it back together jeff olbrick jet's dc it's his fault my
Starting point is 00:01:58 My wife pulled the cord after about five minutes. He went at it. I've yet to see the episode, but he went down that road again. I mean, the guy's got a potty mouth. Check out the Hard Knocks podcast recap with Colleen Wolf. I also did, look at this. Did the Rich Eisen Show this morning? Nice.
Starting point is 00:02:14 Get a tight show. That's a weird way to hold something here. We'll do this. And talked to Hard Knocks, so that's fun. Were you given that or did you lift that? Did you take that with that? Rich personally handed it to him. And he said very nice things about you.
Starting point is 00:02:28 Mark. Well, I'm a huge fan of the show now. He didn't. I already was. I was kidding. Well. But he would love to get us on the old Eisen show there on Roku and radio and all that. It's good.
Starting point is 00:02:40 But who cares about this? Let's talk about the fantasy extravaganza. Yes. Greg, you are, again, brick by brick. Not triple G. You're triple B. And you've been out of the fantasy game for a while now. And yet for one show a year.
Starting point is 00:02:56 Been a decade. You're all the way back, maybe. Yeah, this is, we started this podcast in 2013. I left Rotta World for the NFL in 2012, you know, haven't looked back until the last year or two. Now that my kids are in the fantasy league, you know, I try to help them out a little bit. Didn't help them out enough because they drafted,
Starting point is 00:03:16 my son drafted Tom Brady and Mac Jones back to back rounds one and two. Can't happen. That'll torpedo your season. I thought about joining their league this year. And then I was looking at the average app position. We'll talk about it. And I was like, I would wipe the. floor with all these kids, that wouldn't be
Starting point is 00:03:30 nice, because I got takes. I think it's helpful, actually, to not be inside the fantasy bubble because you see where, like, they just get stuck on some weird loops, some weird logic inside the bubble, and we're going to pop that bubble. Is it, do you feel like other
Starting point is 00:03:46 fathers and mothers that are attempting to guide their young children through an initial fantasy football experience? Then they've got Greg Rosenthal operating as a dad in the same league. It feels a little inequitable to make it. Well, they finished sixth and eighth out of eight. Oh.
Starting point is 00:04:00 Do you think it, do you think, yeah, that's crazy. Do you think Greg's name still carries cloud within the industry? Within our industry. Nobody knows. Within the fantasy industry? I think so. It's sort of like a founding father, like an Abraham Lincoln type figure, I think, to most young fantasy fans.
Starting point is 00:04:16 A real Lincoln. I don't know. Maybe a little George Washington on the Delaware. I'm over billing, Greg, a little bit with that reference. We're going to get to the extravagance. with our first guest in just a little bit. But first, let's get caught up with some housekeeping, some news that we hit.
Starting point is 00:04:33 And again, undefeated. We tape on Monday as soon as we complete the show. Sizeable nugs drop. So now we have to address it. Now, hit the news. I wanted this be a bobbing. And are they going to play as Echel Elliott at center here? Look at this formation.
Starting point is 00:04:50 It appears that Zeke's going to go to center. This looks like my flag football team. Final play, it looks like barring a penalty. Prescott over the middle of the turquit. Get smoked right away and that'll do it with the 49ers. Back to the championship game. Listen, I didn't pick it. Eric Roberts back behind the glass.
Starting point is 00:05:13 He pointed out that that is the final play of Ezekiel Elliott's Cowboys' Career. Yeah. Getting pancaked as an absurd play call. Not by Zaddy, by the way. Make it clear. Zaddy's calling plays. This year. It's Kellan Moore's last playoff.
Starting point is 00:05:29 Got Kellan Moore fired maybe, and now he's in L.A. And everybody's like, oh, what a great hire. Playboy drew that up, okay? Before we, like, start handing out flowers and Super Bowl rings in SoFi for the AFC team there. Anyway, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to get after Kellan Moore there, but just. Well, you had to. You're a journalist.
Starting point is 00:05:47 Anyway, Zeke, he's done with the Cowboys. I could think he was going to end up back with Dallas as the safety blanket there and the things that he still does well. Like past protections seem to be something of a Cowboys. would want and the durability. But he's not. Instead, he's with the New England Patriots to sign Zieg to a one-year contract that's worth up to $6 million. It could be significantly less than that, of course, and it probably will. Greg, Zeke, listen, there are metrics. There are stats like only 3.8 yards per carry that are not great. You pop the hood. Some of the metrics say he's one of the least efficient rushers in football last year for his workload.
Starting point is 00:06:24 And yet he's still, he's a name brand. He finds. finds the end zone. He passed protects, as I said, very well. So there are reasons to think that he could help New England in their depth at running back. It's fine, but I can't believe they're spending $4 million on a backup running back, an aging backup running back. It could work out. It could be more for Zique instead of having all that workload. If you give him 100 touches, maybe it can be pretty effective as a short yardage guy. We know he's a great pass protector.
Starting point is 00:06:55 Remandre Stevenson definitely needed a backer. I kind of noted that in my column this week. They need to sign someone because they just haven't developed anyone behind Stevenson. But you let Damien Harris walk for half of this. Damien Harris is twice the natural runner that Zika is. He's not durable, but it just seems like a position that it's strange to spend $4 million dollars on your back. That apparently is what he's going to get, $3 million base salary, $1 million signing bonus.
Starting point is 00:07:20 When they signed him, I was like, is he definitely going to make the team? What if he looks bad? I guess he's making the team with that signing bonus. Yeah, I think so. but I couldn't agree more with the Damien Harris aspect. The Bill Belichick, the general manager, has cobbled together a questionable collection of skilled position players on offense. I don't hate the idea of Elliott being used in short-yardage situations.
Starting point is 00:07:43 I mean, that will need to be the case. He ran for two yards per carry over the last four games of last season. I don't think he's quite as shot as some people would suggest necessarily. But I like to fit. I think it mattered where he went. And I think that if you're going to get good run blocking in New England, I don't, if you're a Ramandre Stevenson fantasy guy, like this is not good for him.
Starting point is 00:08:04 I don't love it for him. I don't think it's bad. It doesn't help. I think he's a backup running back. Maybe it could be an issue. But he might vulture a few touchouts. I just didn't think, Mark, that Zeke had any juice in his legs the last two years, especially last year.
Starting point is 00:08:17 I'm not surprised he got a job. But I also, I would say this. When he got out into the open, which was rare. Yeah. And it was time to turn on the jets. He just seemed like he was lumbering rather than. Clearly, clearly not the same. same player, but I just, I don't hate the landing spot. I do wonder, like, it's late August,
Starting point is 00:08:31 we're weeks away from, you know, meaningful games. Like, what has Zeke Elliott been doing all off season? Do we trust that he's in the finest shape of his life coming off last year? He's been up and down. He showed up to, I'm glad he brought that up about Zeke, because I actually thought in each of the last two years, he showed up in the beginning of the seasons. I was like, oh, Zique looks pretty good. He's moving well. And then within about two or three weeks, he suffers a minor, they say injury, and he always plays through it. He's got to be. be one of the toughest players of his generation. I mean, he's had so many
Starting point is 00:09:00 2,100 touches in his career in seven years. And he always plays through it. But like something always happens within a couple weeks and then that little bit of juice is gone. But maybe he can keep that juice if he's just like a backup, not touching the ball 20 times a game. I'm trying to convince my stuff, but I'm not really.
Starting point is 00:09:16 Slight correction mark, it's mid-August, not late August. Feels like late August. Not to be outdone. The New York Jets finally get it done with Dalvin Cook, the former Vikings Pro Bowl running back a one year wait for it 8.6 million dollar deal up to 8.6 up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up
Starting point is 00:09:37 up up up up up up up up up up. But I did get some details on that I think seven base yeah okay which is still juicy and sizey and uh this is a move that made all the sense in the world for the jets and I don't worry about the money either because it's a one year deal I should you and you could always and they were they had some funny money because of the Aaron Rogers, the outrageous decision that he took that pay cut to help the team and surprise everyone in the football world. So the Jets had some money laying around. Now, would they love to take some of that money and go trade for a right or left tackle?
Starting point is 00:10:08 I'm sure they would, but they're not growing on trees at this stage. So they say, we have this money. Cook is playing hardball. Get him in the building. And I think it's so important for this team with Reese Hall not to ask or expect him to be the dude in September, to let Hall, who came off the public. a day later, work his way back. And if you could have a situation, Mark, here,
Starting point is 00:10:30 where it's Cook and Hall kind of sharing the wealth, 50-50 split maybe early on. And then if Hall starts looking like Hall again pre-injury, he starts taking over that room and becomes the lead dog with Cook as a complimentary player. I love the sign. I love the move. I think, like, Brees Hall last year was one of the more fascinating backs around.
Starting point is 00:10:53 and the offense went completely off a cliff when he was injured. And so you don't know exactly what you're going to get from him out of the gate. So it's an incredibly wise depth move. Dalvin Cook, another guy that people talk about, like, sort of declining, played through injury. Like, I mean, you get a bit. He sounds like he's got a chip on the shoulder right now. He sounds like he's a little annoyed by some of the chit chat out there
Starting point is 00:11:16 about his game not being what it was. He also has a bad shoulder. He won't practice for a couple of weeks, which is another plot. But all of it, though, it's like, it's just like if you're the gym, We get it. This team is going for it. And I hear people saying, like, there's a little bit of a dream team vibe to this, that Eagles team that fell off the side of the universe, like a decade ago.
Starting point is 00:11:34 I don't think that. I don't think so. They've got a legit defense. They've stocked up on offense. The Aaron Rogers' generosity move allowed this to happen. If you're Joe Douglas, no-brainer. I liked it. I think Cook has been written off too much by the cognizcenti.
Starting point is 00:11:51 because I think some of his best skills, his vision, his instincts were still there last year. He didn't quite have the same juice because he was playing through that injury or the same bit of aggression, but the same thing with Zeke, that I think if he's splitting carries, you get more out of him, except he's at a much higher level than Ezekiel Elliott is as a difference maker. And more importantly, I just don't know why anyone is confident Breece Hall is going to be a difference maker this year. He's coming off a really serious injury. He's just coming off the Pup list this week. Counting on him to play in week one to me is asking a lot.
Starting point is 00:12:30 I wouldn't play him. Right. And even if he is playing, like, he's going to build up and you just can't assume he's the same guy. If he turns into the same guy by week six, that's great. But having someone else with him felt really necessary to me. And I think Cook, they paid for it. But I think he was undervalued in a sense that, like,
Starting point is 00:12:51 he was better than everyone else that was possibly available in this sort of price range this off season. So he actually ended up getting paid fairly, I think he was worth taking a shot. I'd wish that the Patriots, for instance, if they were going to sign someone,
Starting point is 00:13:07 sign Darwin Cook. And also, like Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight are equality backs too. You've got depth there. I mean, what happened last year cannot happen this year. We should mention he has like a pending legal case based on his domestic violence issue
Starting point is 00:13:21 that you can look into there's a lot going on there but it's a civil lawsuit and that that could be an issue that the NFL steps in at some point or it could not but it's possible. Worth noting for sure this is a summer trope alert but
Starting point is 00:13:36 Brees Hall is measured at 23 miles per hour sprint speed so he must be feeling good the thing with the ACL recoveries with running backs especially you just never know because sometimes a guy's not the same for two years.
Starting point is 00:13:51 Adrian Peterson came back and ran for 2,000 yards. Now that's Adrian Peterson. Yeah. But I'm just saying like you never know like what kind of recovery the guy has. But now they have some insurance there. And I'm saying I Rich Eisen, Jets fan also. We were talking about the Jets roster. The logic checks out that this is a good team.
Starting point is 00:14:07 Now will it be a good team? We'll see. Well, the schedule could send that sideways, but yes. It's a good roster. It checks out that they'll win a lot of these games that are. Logic and the Jets don't always go hand in hand, though. Other news mentioned the Cowboys, Zeke and ex-Caboy, still a Cowboy, Zach Martin.
Starting point is 00:14:27 They restructured the contract of their talented right guard. That holdout is over. Rap sheet reported that Martin will earn just over $18 million in each of the final two years of his contract. Nice raise. Six-time, all pro. And Greg, this is an offensive line that, you know, and we talked about this a little bit with Ross Tucker, a Monday.
Starting point is 00:14:47 If things go to plan and they get healthy, which they weren't last year, it could be a very good line. And Martin is a key to have him right in the center of it. Yeah, I don't think anyone was ever worried. This is where it's nice to get drafted by the Cowboys. They do take care of their stars, their future Hall of Famers, which he is. And like, he's one of the best players of his generation. He'll be, like, you don't really think of Zach Martin,
Starting point is 00:15:12 but one day we'll be watching him on that Hall of Fame weekend. I'm trying to think he was drafted. right in front of what draft was that? Because people, they booed him. When Zach Martin... Because nobody wants to take a guard. Fans don't want a guard. Like, and then a guy becomes a linchpin of your roster
Starting point is 00:15:29 and you don't feel the same way. Right? It's like one of those things. It's not sexy. It's not. But they got booed right when it happened. Oh, yeah, it was Johnny Mansell. It was from that freaking documentary.
Starting point is 00:15:41 That's why, because they wanted Johnny Mansell. Right. And instead, the Cowboys chose Zach Martin. So good job by Jerry Jones, choosing Zach Martin. Well, and Jerry Jones, he had some Mansell fascination. And like Jerry Jones, the GM used to get killed. And there seems to be more, there was some wisdom applied. That's a pretty big fork in the road moment where you draft a Hall of Famer instead of Johnny Mansell.
Starting point is 00:16:02 You know what? Let's talk a little bit about the Manzell doc tomorrow on Thursday show. Yes, I finally did it. There's a lot to hit there. In other news, injury news, didn't like seeing this right before we started. Buccaneers, wide receiver, Russell Gage, his season. is over after he suffered an injury at Wednesday's joint practice with the Jets. I mean, it's Wednesday right now.
Starting point is 00:16:24 It's still the morning as we're taping this on the West Coast. So they already know his season's over. It was a non-contact injury sustained while he was backpedaling during seven-on-seven drills. This has been an issue for him, Mark, throughout his Buccaneers career. His injuries are an issue. He took a pay cut to stay with the team, and now he's out of the picture. Man, I really thought last year that, you know, when Tom Brady was one of the reasons. A lot of hype around him left.
Starting point is 00:16:50 Right. And I really thought he was an underrated guy. It didn't work out. And to lose another year, suddenly your career is just floating. And you've got Mike Evans, who's been getting rave reviews during camp. You've got Chris Godwin. But there isn't much else after that. David Moore, it's real thin.
Starting point is 00:17:07 And it just puts more pressure on Baker Mayfield slash Kyle Trass to make this thing work. And, I mean, one of the ugliest experiences from last season was Tampa Bay's offense with Tom Brady. It was a sluggish, hard-to-watch, discombobulated attack. It's not getting any better right now. I think people sometimes overreact too much to the surroundings. Mike Evans and Godwin are going so late in fantasy drafts. You feel for Russell Gage, who I thought was a great signing by them a year ago, and it hasn't worked out. But fantasy-wise, like, all those targets are going to that dude.
Starting point is 00:17:41 even if they're not that good of a passing team, like someone's got to get a thousand yards. Those guys are money. That might come up later. And finally in the news, tragic news. This really sucked. Alex Collins,
Starting point is 00:17:52 the former Arkansas running back, who played five seasons in the NFL, including a very memorable run with the Baltimore Ravens back in 2017. He died after his involvement in a motorcycle crash in Florida on Sunday night, just 28 years old. You talk about like for us, the ATN era.
Starting point is 00:18:11 We've gone into our 11th season. Just a really fun story. He rushed for nearly a thousand yards, came out of nowhere, had six touchdowns, and he was known as the guy that did the Irish step dance. When he got to the end zone, he had been practicing it to work on his agility with a teenager that he was somehow connected to, like, their family. And it was a nice little story there. And to see his life end like this, it's hard to even fathom.
Starting point is 00:18:39 Yeah, I mean, reading about... how it happened, incredibly tragic, but the people that played with them in the locker room, I think you kind of forget that these guys, beyond just their numbers and, like, what they do on the field,
Starting point is 00:18:53 some of them had these incredible personalities and got to where they were because of it, and he just got incredibly praised by the people that played with him. So I don't know, it's just like, man, like, this one stopped me in my tracks when I read how it happened. It's really sad.
Starting point is 00:19:07 He always said, like, when they would do the interviews, he had such a joyous, personality. I saw that this school in Ireland where he had gone to the Irish dance school to like to learn because it kind of became his thing. And he went he went over there. I think it's called Drake Irish Dance. It's called he went over there and made friends with all the people at the school really had a connection with them. They actually did like a dance this week in honor of them. They said to know him was to love him. They became really big fans. And and apparently had like a nice relationship that continued throughout is, is playing days.
Starting point is 00:19:47 So rest in peace. Very sad. Alex Collin is dead at the age of 28. All right. That's it for the news. That's what's happening. We'll be back after a break and begin the fantasy extravaganza. We'll be right back.
Starting point is 00:20:01 Hey, this is Matt Jones. I'm Drew Franklin. And this is NFL cover zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts Pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my.
Starting point is 00:20:17 We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. All right, welcome back. It is time to dig in. We promised you high-level fantasy minds.
Starting point is 00:20:56 So we've got to start right inside the building with Marcus Grant and Michael F. L'OO. The game team. Fantasy Studs. Welcome back. Thanks, man. I'm digging the music. It's like an award show or something.
Starting point is 00:21:10 Well, you deserve it. It's a big deal. It's a big deal to have you here. It's a big deal. Our whole thing is we're only going to do one fantasy show all year. We stay off your corner because you guys do it well. But if we're going to do it, we're going to make it count. I love being part of the extravaganza every year.
Starting point is 00:21:26 It's a good time. And I love Sessler's Fantasy Corner. The whole deal. It's great. Yeah. Mark's older. He's got money and he just doesn't want to be on the corner anymore. The corner, as you remember, was a violent.
Starting point is 00:21:41 part of town. I mean, you were wearing like a combat helmet. Yes, so I don't need that at this point. Like the youth, more, like younger version of me was, you know, keen to that. I understand. Yeah. I get it. So in terms of like how we want to attack the conversation with you boys, we thought, just
Starting point is 00:21:57 talk a little ADP and average draft position for the uninitiated, which would be weird. You got to know that. Certain things you got to know to even compete in your league. No ADP. And we could talk about, Greg, what jumped out to us? what seems weird, what feels like a good value, a bad value. Maybe I'll tee it up this way. Mike, who's your favorite kind of undervalued guy ADP right now?
Starting point is 00:22:25 Ooh, I like Quentin Johnston a whole lot. Really? Yeah. I think that if either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams missed his time, I think this charges offense. Which they will. Yeah. And I think this charges offense is going to be one of the very best in the league now with
Starting point is 00:22:38 Kellen Moore there. I think Justin Herbert could take a huge jump. and we went to Chargers camp a couple weeks ago. Their receivers looks like a basketball team, their receiving room, and he towers over everyone. So he can win downfield, good after the catch. I really like him. I like Winston-Johnson.
Starting point is 00:22:56 I like Deonté Johnson in Pittsburgh. You know, he's that guy that all of us who do this love Deontay Johnson because, you know, he's got the technical skills, he got a ton of targets. And then, you know, people who are more casual just look and say, he didn't score a touchdown last year. And it's, like, sort of hard to argue that. But, one, you can't score fewer than zero, right?
Starting point is 00:23:16 So regression, positive regression has to be coming his way. Kenny Pickett doesn't have to be great. He just has to not be terrible. Because with the volume of targets Deonté Johnson gets, law of average just says he's going to get in the end zone this year. I think the Steelers will be at least a little bit better. And he's going, like, in the eighth round. I feel like that's steel.
Starting point is 00:23:33 Right. Yeah. When I was looking at the average draft position, I never look at it until the day or two before this show. and some things just stand out to you like that and like there are great receivers available in that area of the draft you know Brandon Ayuk's going pretty late
Starting point is 00:23:48 Mike Williams is going pretty late Mike Evans who's getting a lot of like hey it's a contract year and he's crushing everyone at Bucks Camp like is maybe getting discounted too much I think for Baker getting there but I wanted to ask you guys about the average draft position at the top because I'm basic and people like looking at the top. Hey it's where you're going to start though
Starting point is 00:24:05 like there's it's very interesting only four running backs in round one. I kind of feel like now the average draft has caught up to that receivers are just safer than running backs. But the running back that stuck out the most that is in round one. To me is I thought Bijan might be going at number one overall. And I think I would consider him at one overall, two overall, three overall. And he's down there at nine. That usually doesn't happen in fantasy drafts. I know he's like a rookie. Like where are you at with Bijan? Do you think that's too high or too low because for him to be that low, that means in some drafts, he's, he's like slipping into
Starting point is 00:24:44 mid-round two. That's shocking to me because I think there's like a reasonable chance he's like RB won this year. Yeah, before we throw it to the experts on this, like he's never played before. Sure. But I'm just curious, like if you look at who are the other guys running backs that came into the league, like Adrian Peterson flashes in my mind as an example. Greg, that was during your brick-by-brick era. Was he a guy that was going top five overall? I mean, I feel like, if you're ADP as a rookie who's never played before is top 10, you're pretty unique already. Also, like Clyde Edward Salara, we just did this.
Starting point is 00:25:17 I mean, I trust B. But now it's like, that's what I think. He's going around where Clyde Edward DeLayer was going. That's kind of what I mean. Maybe that's part of it. A lot of people, I was burned in his rookie season. Like, maybe people are jumpy about that. I think it's a little bit of, you know, I'll say this.
Starting point is 00:25:32 People are less scared to draft rookies in the first round now than they were a few years ago. Like, I remember when Zeke came out and everybody was like, you know, And a lot of people analysts were like, hey, he's a first round pick. And a lot of pushback was, he's never played before. But, you know, we've seen Zeke do it. We've seen Sequin do it. We've seen Christian McCaffrey do it.
Starting point is 00:25:48 And so I think people are a little less hesitant. But I still think when you look at the running backs going ahead of him, it's a case of, well, we have seen this for sure before. Like we believe Bejohn can be good. We know McCaffrey, Echler, Chubb. We know those guys are going to be good. So that, I think, is why you're seeing them go ahead. But I don't think it's out of the.
Starting point is 00:26:08 realm of possibility for Bejohn to be the RB1. But you know what? If you can take him later in the first round, take the discount and be happy. But like, to your point, what was like Zex specs the year? I guess he was good in year three, too, but like, it was right off the bat, he's getting 2,000 years. The back end of, you know, sticking with running backs here
Starting point is 00:26:24 that, you know, two guys that scare the hell out of me, personally, Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor, and I'm looking here at Fantasy Football calculator, they're going 24, 25 average. Man, I wouldn't, I don't know if I want anything to do with guys that have that much stink around them and Taylor also has the ankle stuff that
Starting point is 00:26:43 maybe you're still concerned about. Surprise where they are or does that seem about right? I think it seems about right. Late second, early third round is where you get them. Look, there's risk obviously tied to them, but they're the kind of like league winning type picks. Because if you could get Jonathan Taylor or Josh Jacobs and they end up being there week one and they have their normal type of season, those are guys that were going to be late first, early, like going around where Bijan and Sequin and those guys were going. So you are getting a big discount on them. Because I know it only sounds like, oh, a round, maybe a round and a half, but that early in
Starting point is 00:27:14 the draft, that is a sizable discount. So it depends on how risk adverse you want to be. But if you are, if you're someone who's like me and you play to swing for the fences and win the game. Exactly. It's worth a dice for a lot. That's what I'm saying with Bijan. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:28 Like, Echler, we've seen it, but what are the odds he's actually going to be that good again this year? I don't think it's hard. And here's the one last thing on this. But when you look, if you don't go for the Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor big swing there, if they're available, you know, the guys that you're going after that, according to the list I'm looking at here, it's like, Naji Harris.
Starting point is 00:27:46 It's like, okay. No, he's concerning. Joe Mixing, er, Travis E.T.N. I like him more than others. Breece Hall, his injury issues and now Dalvin Cook. So it's like, the next name is, oh, Jemir Gibbs. That's who you want. Okay, let's talk about it.
Starting point is 00:28:00 He's going top of the fourth round. Jamir Gibbs is sort of like arbitrage Bijon Robinson, right? I think that's how people are sort of feeling about him, that he has a great skill set. He's in an offense that was great last year. DeAndre Swift leaving has sort of opened up an opportunity, but you don't have to pay that first round draft price. You can wait until the third, maybe fourth round,
Starting point is 00:28:18 and Jamir Gibbs is still sitting there for you. Yeah, I get it. It's fine, fourth round. But one of them is like one of the greatest running back prospects of all time. That's all. I'm just saying sometimes when it seems obvious, it is obvious. How do you deal with, though, when speaking of rookies, because I look at the tight end position.
Starting point is 00:28:33 Number one, you've got a limited amount of, like, premier tight ends. You can't sleep on that round after round. You might have to go really early if you want to get one of these guys. But I feel like rookie tight ends, they can be pumped up, but you really don't get the production sometimes from that position until year two or three. But then you hear about the buzz around Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorter.
Starting point is 00:28:52 Is this part of your swing for the fences? Like, you trust that these guys produce right away? I love them both. I do. I'll say this. I am also not averse to taking Travis Kelsey in the first round. Because set it and forget it, I don't need that headache. But if I'm waiting, Kincaid and Leporteur are two guys that I'm drafting a lot this year.
Starting point is 00:29:09 Kelsey's going, what, top six or seven? Yeah, I mean, he's maybe even top five. I see him in four in some places. Yeah, I seriously. Part of me, with Kincaid, I will admit part of me, you know, still has emotional scars watching him run over USC last year. When he had like 11-D catches against them in like the regular season. But I think he's great. I think he's going to get a lot of opportunity.
Starting point is 00:29:28 And Sam Leporta, a talented guy. And, you know, when you look at the rest of that depth chart there when it comes to tight ends in Detroit, you know, stop me when somebody, you know, wowes you. Brock Wright, James Mitchell, Dary, Dan. Like, nobody there is going to take those targets away from him. Cautionary tale. I did it two years in a row because I was so high on him. You want to talk about a guy coming out of college scene as a potential all-time prospect, Kyle Pitts. And he's going at the top of the seventh round. So finally, the fantasy world's like, we got to pump the brakes here.
Starting point is 00:30:00 Of course, their offense. I was going to run the ball out with Bijan there and the quarterback situation. We're a Kyle Pitts-friendly show. Are we going to do it? Is it smart to get him around early and hope that it finally pops here? I think so coming into drafts, I want one of the top seven tight ends this year. And my top favorite targets are Kelsey in the first, Darren Waller, or Kyle Pitts. And the thing I love about Kyle Pitts is last season, he could have been Jerry Rice and he would have flopped.
Starting point is 00:30:29 because 60% of his targets were deemed un-catchable. Brutal. Marcus Marriota, no offense, he was just not a good passer last year. And then when they brought in Desmond Ritter, they started throwing about six times more per game, which doesn't sound like a whole lot, but when you add that up over 17 games, we're talking about 100 more pass attempts.
Starting point is 00:30:47 Plus, there was two games last year that they lost by more than one score. I don't know if they're going to have the game script where they can just run the ball as much as they did last year. So I think naturally with Pitts being so talented, with more opportunity and stuff, And then with him going four rounds later than he was going a year ago. That's it. That's the whole game.
Starting point is 00:31:05 That's why, like, Kelsey at 1 at 5th seems insane to me because it's like he's never been taken close to that high. And yes, he's coming off one of his best season. He's 34 years. Like, don't take anyone in the season that they're going way higher than they've ever gone before. You mentioned you wanted a top seven tight end. So just for our listeners. Andrews is going around round three. That's fine.
Starting point is 00:31:27 Hawkinson in round four. that seems crazy to me. I don't like either of those two. There's such good receivers and other players available. Kiddle and five, very injury prone at this point, including right now he's out. Waller, that's good. Waller and Goddard in the round six area feels tasty to me. Goddard, I feel like every year I feel like he's going to have a career year, and every year he does.
Starting point is 00:31:48 And what you hear out of Philadelphia, I think he's just going to be a huge part of that office. Yeah, no, I love Waller this year. I'm still in on Kyle Pitts. I would say this. With Kelsey, part of the reason you're seeing it is because there was no greater single-player advantage in fantasy. Right, but that was last year. That was last year. That's what I'm saying.
Starting point is 00:32:07 A wise man once told me don't draft last year's best team, so that's something to keep in. I have a personal question. I think people are familiar with the app cameo where you can provide videos and birthday messages to people, but it comes at a fee to get access to people like yourself. Michael Florio is charging $25 for a personal video. Well, that seems reasonable. Marcus, I just want to like to get a comment on this. You're charging $50. Well, yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:33 What's happening here? Well, you know, you... What are you providing that you's not providing? You take what the market will give you, right? Don't ask scary questions, you know. To be fair, Marcus, you've been here at the NFL in fantasy since when? For a while. This is 2011. Okay.
Starting point is 00:32:46 And Florio's a little bit more of a new cover. Oh, no, I know. I had to see, I was like, listen, no one's going to pay $50. Now, your stock is on the rise, though. Mike's undervalue. Should I make it like 20-30 bucks? I'm just thinking from an ADP standpoint. I think you bump it.
Starting point is 00:32:59 Look, I was sorry that I sort of went with the recommendations of the cameo brain trust. They were like, hey. Like, what does Beetlejuice charge for his cameo? Like, let's get some other, like, celebrities out there. Let's figure it out. I think Beetlejuice is still with us. All I know is I heard that Dean Norris, Hank, from Breaking Bad,
Starting point is 00:33:19 is charging around 200 bucks for cameos. Apparently, the guy who plays Kevin from the office makes, like, that's his living. now. He's the most lucrative. Yeah, he makes like millions of dollars a pair. Here would be my, the way I would do it. Do it like you're putting a house on the market, right? So you set it high.
Starting point is 00:33:37 And then if you have to quietly go to your real estate broker and be like, all right, take it down, then you do it. It's not going to depress your value. Maybe I've had to already do that once. All right, one guy. I will pay you $20. Let me send you a video. Yeah, the equivalent I feel like,
Starting point is 00:33:56 of Mike F. Florio on Cameo being a bargain at 25 bucks. I think after I looked at all these 80Ps and some seemed insane to me when you go through a whole off season and not see anything. The one that was by far the most insane is that Damien Pierce of the Texans is going at the end of the fifth or sixth round. That would be my number one recommendation, my number one guy I'm standing on the table for in all of this. if you had told me he was going at
Starting point is 00:34:24 112, I would have been like, oh, yeah. It's like one of the best running backs in the league with a really good offensive line and guaranteed to get 300 touches. That feels like a guy in his second year because I'd rather have running backs early that goes in the top 15, 20 picks, like the ceilings through the roof, as they would say.
Starting point is 00:34:44 I don't get it, but I'm just saying, do you agree with me that you got to be taken? The ceiling is the roof is the Jordan. Yeah. I mean, it doesn't, I don't get it, but that, like, it's insane he would be behind Madison. Kenneth Walker and Miles, like, all of it seems insane to me. Go draft Damien Pierce. Agree or disagree.
Starting point is 00:35:02 I, no, I love Damien Pierce. I will say this. I want to keep him at that ADP because I think it's a bargain. But I think, I think there's a general fear of the Texans offense. Like, if you look, there are no Texans really getting drafted. Ain't no Texans on my team. And I think the other part is, but they have a good lot. It's kind of sneaky.
Starting point is 00:35:17 They have a good line. And it can't be worse than last year. He was great last year. Right, but I think the knock on is that he doesn't really, well, that he doesn't catch the ball, but they seem to be working that into the arsenal this year, too. My only concern with him is it's a first year OC, and he comes from San Francisco, who always like to rotate. Even Christian McCaffrey, we were like, why is this guy not playing 90% of the snaps anymore?
Starting point is 00:35:37 Okay. They signed Devon Singletary. I'm a little bit concerned if he'll eat into the workload. So if you're for the casual, like, newer fantasy person, and you're sitting there and you know these guys, but, you know, you're dealing with someone like Alvin Kamara or Jameson Williams, you're dealing with early season suspension. They just go undrafted or you grab them late?
Starting point is 00:35:54 Like, what do you do with Alvin Kamara? I love both of those players. Like, Jameson Williams is one of my most drafted receivers, Alvin Kamara from running backs, because I don't care about the first three weeks of the season for Alvin Kamara. I can get by. There's no buys. Injuries haven't piled up yet,
Starting point is 00:36:09 so it's easy to set your, especially when you could plan for it. So for me, I just want my team and its optimal shape come to fantasy playoffs. And I think James and Williams and Alvin Camaro could be league winners if they hit. I love that move. I remember winning a league once when I grabbed Tom Brady during his deflakeate suspension earlier than maybe others thought. And then you just stash him. And before you know it, it's October or whatever.
Starting point is 00:36:32 Some of these suspensions toll. And then it's like the baseball GM who tries to placate an angry fan base about, oh, when this guy comes back, it will be about it's like trading for a big time player. It kind of is that way. Is this a way? Is this an Aaron Judge comment here? Is that what this is? I got some rage. Brian Cashman, but that's fine.
Starting point is 00:36:49 But I love doing that move. I get guys that are out of the picture, and then when they show up, you're like, oh, my God. No, 100%. People were drafting Camara anyway. They were sort of, you know, being a little bit cautious, and I think he was going around, like, round eight. And then the moment we found out what the suspension was, people were willing to, yeah, people were willing to reach a couple rounds higher. But, no, no doubt about it. But I'd say in the short term, you know, if you're willing to go get Jamal Williams, say, in round 10 or 11, you know, the first three weeks,
Starting point is 00:37:15 There's a big opportunity for him there. And have faith in your ability to just fill that spot for three weeks. To me, he could be a third or fourth round player. It's like a study I read. Go ahead. I think about this with my kids. Like one of the things you can most easily predict scientifically among kids, like who's going to be happier in life or have more success is like if you're the type of person
Starting point is 00:37:38 when you have as a kid something in front of you and you can wait until tomorrow to actually have it. Like if you, or if you have to have it right now. Basically, like, do you want to wait until tomorrow and have two pieces of chocolate? Or do you want one piece of chocolate right now? The kids who take the one piece of chocolate right now end up, like, less happy, less successful. If you can wait, if you can wait for Camara, that's a nice. I want it right now. You sound like Tom Renovitch's father.
Starting point is 00:38:07 I can wait on fantasy players, not chocolate. Do you have any, like, wider C-Rubs before we let you go? Just any that you think are a nice value, mid, early, late, whatever you want. I keep saying that rumors of Tyler Lockett's fantasy demise are greatly exaggerated. You know, the moment they drafted Jackson Smith and Jigba, everybody's like, oh, it's over for Tyler Lockett. And I'm like, have we forgotten that he's actually outperformed D.K. Medcaf the last couple of years?
Starting point is 00:38:29 He has been the better of the two receivers. And I think that the Seahawks sort of going all in on Gino Smith suggests they want to throw the football more. And look, if you're willing to let me have Tyler Lockett somewhere, you know, round five, round six, I will thank you for that opportunity because I think, you know, who needs 80 catches, 11, 1,200 yards and 8 to 10 touchdowns? Who needs that?
Starting point is 00:38:50 I love Tyler Lockett as well, but one area that I love it for receivers is like that late third, early fourth round because Crystal Lave is an early third round, but like Olave, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, or three receivers that I want on as many teams as I can get. They all go
Starting point is 00:39:05 in that range, so I just try to target whichever one. That seems like a credible value for Lockett. Two others out there. Alave could go crazy. A lot of it could go big. Going early fifth round, Terry McLaurin and Christian Watson, two guys I would, if they're sitting there for me at the top of the fifth round, I'm all over, both of those guys.
Starting point is 00:39:21 Absolutely. McLaurin just, he's sort of the new Alan Robinson. Like, he's that guy that I just, if I could wish one thing, I would just wish for him to actually get like a really good quarterback. But he's somehow figured out how to prospect about it. Yeah, he gets his. And imagine if Hal could play, we shall see before we say goodbye to our friends in the NFL. media fantasy realm.
Starting point is 00:39:43 Do you want to share some of the reporting that we've heard? So, yeah, I heard a little whisper. You've probably heard this too many times, Michael F. Florio, but you share a name with my old boss, Mike Florio, who has a prominent position in the industry. Did not know he was your old boss until recently. Yeah, I worked there for three years. It was like right below Mike.
Starting point is 00:40:06 If Greg writes a memoir, he's going to do like three chapters on the record. I'm not right. I got it in the memoir. How he's shaped him. I just heard whispers that he wasn't happy there's another Mike Floreo on the scene, which makes sense that there's another, you're Mike Floreo,
Starting point is 00:40:26 then there's another Mike Floreo that arrives and that this has caused some consternation in your rise, because you've had a great rise here. You were, I bet what, a researcher at one point, and now an on-air talent. Yeah, he apparently doesn't like me very much, or my name, which I'm like, we have the same name. We do the same thing. We have a lot in common.
Starting point is 00:40:49 It's not your personality, though. It's the overlap. This can't be true. It's on his radar. Yeah, I was shocked when I heard I was even on his radar. I was like, oh, it was like a year or two ago. I was like, oh, I didn't even think he. Did you add the F because of him?
Starting point is 00:41:03 Yeah. They were like, where do you want? That's respect. What does he want you to change your name? I didn't want to go by a name that is not my name because then I wouldn't. respond to it like if you were like you are him yeah you're mike florio too so i was but the the funniest thing is a lot of people think he's my dad right so i get that so when you are research he talks about his kid all the time he has he has one son and he talks about him all the time and he's old enough that
Starting point is 00:41:26 he's not quite as old as you but i think he's in his 20 so okay but when we would get emails from you when you were in research way back when like i was like that's gotta probably be mike florio's son, right? Like, he's in football. He's dug in on the concept. I didn't even... I didn't even investigate it further. I was like, it's got to be his son. Yeah, no, my dad's name is Frank. He does not work in sports at all. What would the option be?
Starting point is 00:41:47 Not go by Mike? I think that's ridiculous. Frankly, you're younger and I think you've got a chance... You're going to take over. Somebody has to change the name. He has to pass the name torch to me. There you go. They wanted me to go by Frank because I was like, no, that's my dad. I can't, Frank.
Starting point is 00:42:03 But you're getting dinged, you said, for like, Floreo's takes and pro footballs. You can't win. You're mentioned. Maybe that's it. He's getting a lot of... For years, I would get, like, mentions of people being, like, how are you reporting on this? And I'm like, I am not reporting on it.
Starting point is 00:42:20 For a while, Cynthia Freeland was asking me to send all of those tweets to her. And she would just tell people like, no, it's not him. But just to put a bow on this one, PFT Florio hasn't reached out to NFL Floreo one-on-one. I've never spoke to them. To say like go away or change your name. Michael Florio, thank you very much. Marcus Grant, thank you very much. Check out the guys' content on NFL.com, on NFL Network, on NFL Plus.
Starting point is 00:42:48 These guys will win your titles. The NFL Fantasy Pod. All of it. Bang. A lot of content. I guess if you just go to the app, right? Like, supposedly everything's going to be in there at some point. That's what they tell us.
Starting point is 00:42:58 Allegedly. We just prop us up like mannequins. We'll do it we need to do. Put us in the right silos. Point me at a camera or microphone, and I'll just talk for a few minutes. All right, boys. Thank you. That's it.
Starting point is 00:43:10 Hey, this is Matt Jones. I'm Drew Franklin. And this is NFL cover zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my.
Starting point is 00:43:26 We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones. and Drew Franklin on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. All right.
Starting point is 00:43:56 We are back. Our next heavy hitter covers the NFL. in the fantasy world for NBC Sports. Many know him as Rotopat. His mother knows him as Patrick Darry. What's up, bud? Not much.
Starting point is 00:44:20 I feel like I'm watching highlights of Super Bowl 12 at 11.30 p.m. Central on your network. I love it. As I've said on this special before, rotopat holds a special place in my heart, first of all. a mensch just a good guy but also the only fantasy column i read every week is his rhodo world column um when he goes through each matchup and and it has helped me win titles so i got to bring that to the audience and again sincerely thank you sir for all your help through the years uh it's my pleasure
Starting point is 00:44:58 and i have to give you thanks you gave me one of the only compliments that's ever really stuck with me I think it was you. I don't remember it was you or Mark. I hope so. But you praised my thought strangeness. You were talking about my writing style, and you praised my thought strangeness, and that's like exactly what I go for.
Starting point is 00:45:15 Oh, okay. Well, I think that phrase is always stuck with me. It sounds like something Mark would say and identify with. We've talked about Roto Pats, when you can tell on Roto World, like, oh, that's his blurb. Right. It's not any, it's clearly his, because he's gone down an avenue of snarkiness slash a little bit left of center take
Starting point is 00:45:31 and it makes it the site all that more enjoyable. I'm waiting to see how you rebrand Roto World for the 14th time. You know what? An off season from now. You're still doing blurbs though, right? Are you out of the game? You're in the blurb game?
Starting point is 00:45:44 I'm not all the way out. I'm less in the game than I used to be, but I'm still blurbing like 10. That was the move. When I was there, I tried to set the framework. At some point, maybe you get off the blurbs. Because it's like a grist mill, you know? You got to get off the blurbs at some point.
Starting point is 00:45:58 You do 10, 15 blurbs per. I missed the last part of that. Like hours is what I aim for. But Greg is right. Blurbing is the most difficult first world job on the planet. Like it is like the definition of a first world problem job where you're just reading Twitter all day. But there's something about it that is so grueling and soul robbing. It was fun.
Starting point is 00:46:21 Greg, you're robbing souls. No, I enjoyed it. It was like it really was the framework. Greg, it was fun. Employee, totally different feedback. It was great to work with Pat back. the day. And I'm glad that you're still there. You know, it's like many people we're going to have Evan Silvan have gone on to do other
Starting point is 00:46:38 great things. But you are the connection still for me personally. So that's important between my era and now. I signed an Atlanta Brave style contract where they got me under for a hundred years at the age of 22. So can I ask you about some, uh, a news item that just popped by the way this week at least, which was Richardson. Where are you at on Anthony Richards? Where are you at on Anthony Richardson where he should be in fantasy drafts. Because now that you know he's starting week one, that kind of takes I don't know where he's settling in average draft position. I would be extremely intrigued to have him on my team. I'm kind of not worried about
Starting point is 00:47:15 where he's getting taken. Well, you asked about Anthony, so he was a guy I was going to talk about. One of like the loose questions we threw around maybe come up here is who am I worried about? And I'm just a little worried about Anthony Richardson, who, depending on who you ask, could be a huge ADP value or it could be a huge ADP reach. He's like the QB 10 or 11. And it's just because of Justin Fields, because of Jalen Hertz, because of Josh Allen, because of Lamar Jackson, I think fantasy managers have kind of become conditioned to think, well,
Starting point is 00:47:46 he's a quarterback who can run, like, guaranteed top 10 fantasy season. And like kind of the belief that like these insane dual threat seasons grow on trees when, you know, they just don't like we didn't get that from justin fields as a rookie we kind of got it from lamar jackson his half season as a rookie we kind of got it from jalen hurts his half season as a rookie we didn't get it from josh allen uh it's a team you know kind of like rebuilding from the ground up he needs jonathan taylor for cover we don't really know i think jonathan taylor will be out there week one there's just so much moving parts for a prospect who is so inexperienced uh you know who barely basically played one season of college football.
Starting point is 00:48:25 He is, as my colleague, Kyle DeVorechik always says, he's Derek Henry in a quarterback's body that will help with the rushing, of course, and the dual threat, goodness, and fantasy. But he seems like a guy who has the ceiling to be like an absolute fantasy legend, where I am waiting one year. And then, of course, missing out and everyone's laughing at me. But he is someone I'm worried about for this season. That's fair that you need like a little bit of rushing,
Starting point is 00:48:50 I mean a little bit of passing because Josh Allen actually did run quite well as a rookie but you're right his passing was so forgettable that he didn't really matter I guess I figure if
Starting point is 00:49:00 you could draft another quarterback with him that's seen maybe was there anything more predictable than Anthony Richardson being named starter as soon as humanly possible again the fingerprints from ownership
Starting point is 00:49:12 are all over this to the point where the headline on ESPN.com is like Richardson shocked to be named starting quarterback it's like maybe we didn't need to go down that route i we're going to focus on quarterbacks here with roto pat uh i famously am in a two quarterback league uh as you know pat and um so quarterbacks win leagues for us we'll have
Starting point is 00:49:32 multiple quarterbacks coming off the board in the first round in our league it's not like that obviously in the majority of leagues you brought up lamar jackson um he's going top five in the quarterback game still where are you at with him are you buying in on all the talk you know he's freshly paid he's got more weapons. Are we going to get MVP level Lamar back? Do you feel safe making that pick in 2023? I do.
Starting point is 00:49:58 And you know, some of it is kind of narrative base. Like, as you mentioned with the contract, like, finally got paid, you know, like, as if that magically changes everything. But it did seem like, and I'm not saying this at all as a judgment on the player, it seemed like last year, if he had been paid, he probably maybe
Starting point is 00:50:14 could have come back for the final game or two of the season. That is pure speculation. It was the Albatross, hanging over the entire franchise. It's finally gone. The other thing, of course, was Greg Roman's offense, which the players were basically openly disdainful of by the, I mean, Lamar talked about opposing defenses, like literally calling out the plays. It just seemed like something it needed to be refreshed. In fantasy, we wanted to be something refreshed with something more pass-heavy, because in fantasy,
Starting point is 00:50:41 it's like even if the Ravens become a more passing-oriented offense, it's not like the running's ever going to go away for Lamar Jackson. It's not like his signature attribute. is suddenly going to disappear. He's going to scramble. There's going to be design runs. There's going to be like game-breaking plays. And it's finally pairing that with something not only more passing-oriented, but something passing-oriented with actual receivers. Last year, I looked up with Amar. His final full game, his receiver trio was Deshaun Jackson, Devin Duvernay, and DeMarcus Robinson. Just a very, very hard way to make a living. In real life and in fantasy football, kind of just everything has changed. I wouldn't rush back either with that, with that trio. No, no.
Starting point is 00:51:23 And it's some of its narrative base, but it's a narrative that makes sense. And I do think we are finally getting like a return to glory Lamar Jackson season, four years after he won the MVP. For people that are maybe newer to fantasy, I think, you know, when I was young, I always wanted to go quarterback early because it's like, you know, quarterbacks for your heroes and all this stuff. It throws me a little bit with the way that you have some of these dual threat guys. like Remandre Stevenson right now has a higher ADP than Jalen Hertz.
Starting point is 00:51:53 Kyle Pitts over Lamar Jackson. Then you've got like T.J. Hawkinson over Joe Burrow. Like, what is your, when you're drafting your teams, like, how do you, where are you with the whole quarterback things? I know it's like, oh, it doesn't matter. Take them late. Which I just more like I want to take a great quarterback early and feel like he's going to be the centerpiece of this whole thing. That's why you should have two QB leagues because QBs run the NFL. Why would you have fantasy not have them have the value that they deserve?
Starting point is 00:52:19 I'll shut up. No, it's an extremely good rant. And so near like the end of like the Brady, Breeze, Rathusberger, like Philip Rivers era, it had become like comical where it's the most important position in global sports. I'm like, yeah, I'm not even going to draft a quarterback, you know, I'll wait until September 3rd. I had Kirk Cousins on the waiver wire. Like it became like, you know, like a staring contest, basically who could be like the hardest drafter in the league and never taking a quarterback. but the dual threats. That guy's a badass.
Starting point is 00:52:51 Exactly, yeah. Well, sure, he just left his quarterback spot Blankle season and went 0 and 13, but I really admire his character. But like this crop of dual threats and finally, like the turnover of talent at the time, like this, the infusion of young pocket passing talent and Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, it really like reinvigorated the quarterback position. It's a savvier drafting public now, so it's harder to get late around quarterback. it used to be like you could just get like someone like the next Jalen Hertz like the 10th or 11th round people have gotten wise that and it still doesn't match their real life value but quarterback values uh have ADPs have really crept up the past year years where it was like the fifth or sixth round you could wait for Patrick Mahomes a few years ago now it's sometimes it's the second usually like the third or the fourth and I am taking quarterbacks earlier especially even like these industry leagues where you really risk like mockery um
Starting point is 00:53:47 but it helps so much to have that high baseline of points. And has this become harder to stream quarterbacks because everyone is so much savvier. And it's an advantage to not have to worry about streaming every week and even using like a few fab dollars on a quarterback. So quarterback bottomed out. It's rising again. It's never going to be like first or second round quarterback,
Starting point is 00:54:06 but it's much more now like third or fourth round instead of fifth or six. Yeah, it really, I think the game changed. Like five or six guys, seven guys are going in the first five. rounds. Like, you can't wait as long. But I do think there's something to, you know, Alan Hertz, Lamar specifically, and if you like Fields and Richardson would be a lower tier of this, that like, I feel like I'm fine reaching early for those guys. And then you do feel like a comfort. Maybe don't wait forever. But like if you do have a golf or a Stafford or a Gino, like you just get your steady guy later. And that's where.
Starting point is 00:54:47 the real life value doesn't match up with fantasy and it's like you can pair those two together then it's kind of like we talked about with Marcus and Florio earlier with not worrying about Alvin Camara missing three games like if Lamar Jackson misses half the season but he's full Lamar Jackson
Starting point is 00:55:02 QB1 for the half that you get him that's actually a ton of value because if you're confident in being able to fill that gap with some other guy with Derek Carr or whatever the rest of the time. The top one or two tiers I feel like are more separated than they are at some points in like fantasy history so there is like a big
Starting point is 00:55:22 difference between like the top six or seven quarterbacks but that being said it it's still it like it still goes 20 22 deep right like Rogers is going 13th that quarterback two is going 11th I mean to like Russell Wilson's like going like QB 20 depending on where you're playing like who could be a pretty obvious bounce back but the better yeah with a better supporting cast than Sean Payton so I think the high like the top one or two tiers there's a bigger separation than there is sometimes, but it's still the deepest position in fantasy. And if you don't want to use that earlier on capital,
Starting point is 00:55:54 you're going to be able to stream. It's a little more work, but you're still going to be able to do it. Where are you on, like, what would your approach be to Deshawn Watson? Do you look at the overall career? Do you look like the disaster from last season?
Starting point is 00:56:05 Do you just stay away entirely? It is weird. I mean, something like these guys, even when they're still like prime age, it's still 27, 28. Missing a season does something strange to an athlete, but I'm,
Starting point is 00:56:17 still, I'm viewing it basically as this is the real follow-up to his 2020, where the last time we saw Deshawn Watson play full football season, he played in an MVP level. The supporting cast, it didn't get like infinitely better, but it got better. Like he has another deep threat and Cedric Tillman. They have another underneath guy in Elijah Moore. Who knows if Elijah Moore is actually good. In fact, with Elijah Moore, I heard like, I heard something spun as a good, like, oh, they're getting him on like jet sweeps and screens. I'm like, when I heard this, oh, wow, it means they don't know how to get him the ball that seems bad but it is a deeper supporting cast they're not going to have to remake the offense on the fly like they did last year when he returned and it
Starting point is 00:56:55 does seem like we're probably going to get something much closer to 2020 to sean watson then we did to 2022 to sean watson let me ask you this because you talked about these names that popped up ready pocket passers you know guys like cousins rogers at this point although he does have mobility but he's older derrick car same type of situation stafford certainly These are guys that if they're healthy, you could kind of lock them in to give you nice production. But does it make more sense to if you're going to wait that long for those type of guys to go pick Daniel Jones instead with the old life hack that you're getting the rushing, even if the upside as a passer is less? Where do you come down on that? Do you take a locked and loaded pocket guy or a more rangy type player who might not be as good?
Starting point is 00:57:40 Probably go for the rangey, at least the first, because the pocket guy is always going to be there on the waiver. wire. And like you mentioned Daniel Jones who had a career year and still did not get in the top 12 at quarterback last year. You could go like much crazier. And like the crazy guy this year is Sam Howe. And like has he been officially named the starter? I can't remember, but not official official, but basically. The guy with some running juice, the guy who has two really good young receivers pretty good overall. So I mean, I'm just saying to Greg, maybe one of your frustrations is fancy. It doesn't matter if you're good in real life. difference.
Starting point is 00:58:16 No frustration. I think you're, I think that's a great late QB2. If you don't want to bother to take your second quarterback until the very end, if you're in a one quarterback league, Howell was trucking people in college. I think he can throw the ball a little bit. Like, to me, he's a perfect late guy. It's funny how little respect Daniel Jones gets.
Starting point is 00:58:37 I mean, I looked at it. I will quote, never respect. Right. I looked at his QBR, like QBR over the decades. And Daniel Jones's QBR rushing value, which was about the same as Allen and Hertz last year, was comparable to, like, Michael Vick's best seasons as a runner. Like, that's the level of production you were getting. So if you get anything out of them passing and you didn't get much last year, that's actually not maybe a bad value play either. And if something is maybe repeatable.
Starting point is 00:59:07 Who's your favorite, though? Who's your favorite of all these guys? Who are your favorite QB targets? The guy I'm ending up with the most again, and guarantee. I will be hurt again is Justin Herbert because everyone knows real football fantasy you don't hit your wagon to the chargers because every year they will have the best roster
Starting point is 00:59:24 in the NFL they don't have the best roster and they have a good roster everything every dot connects for Justin Herbert who threw for 4,700 yards last year even though he was like on the Drew B's rib plan or like every week they're like actually it's six cracked ribs for Justin Herbert not two and it was one of those things where it seemed like the number
Starting point is 00:59:41 got bigger every week but he didn't even the Drew Brees thing I remember that. Every week, it was a couple X. Like it gets to the point where he had more cracked ribs than any humans ever been recorded for a number of ribs. But the chart, they swapped out Joe Lombardi for Kellynne Moore. They added another first round receiver in Quentin Johnston, who some people think will be a bust. I mean, the Chargers are Lucy with the football, but, I mean, he was already almost knocking on the Mahomes tier two years ago. And he still was like halfway there, even playing hurt all year last season.
Starting point is 01:00:11 Kellen Moore has been so good for fantasy. Joe Lombardi was so bad for fans. We just hope with Justin Herbert that it really was the coordinating that was conservative and not the player who is conservative and that Justin Herbert is ready to be more aggressive and throw deep. But it seems like every dot connects for Justin Herbert to really kind of like rejoin that elite tier this year. I want to ask you quickly about another rookie.
Starting point is 01:00:32 Bryce Young, I'm seeing. I get these aren't sexy names, but he is ADP'd above Kenny Pickett. Brock Purdy, I mean, I like Barack Purdy. Jimmy G., like these are not guys you're going to go after early, but I mean, what we've seen from the Panthers so far, their offensive line and everything else, like I don't think I'm drafting Bryce Young necessarily high at all. No, and I did an article,
Starting point is 01:00:53 you could question the worth of this article. I ranked all 32 of like the offensive environments. Because a good tiebreaker, if you can't decide between like player A or player B, like I don't know any difference between these players, is the overall offensive environment. I did rank the Panthers 32. Because like you said,
Starting point is 01:01:09 there's the lying questions. There's some interesting people in the receiver. core but I mean this is like a really like on the fly receiver core and this kind of just seems like a wait till next year skill group and they're going to do the tough thing where they're going to put the number one overall pick into like a really bad environment and just hope it doesn't kill his career but it might not be that bad but the panthers when I think of like fantasy points I do view the panthers as like a dead last unit in the entire NFL and as such price young is not on any of my draft last thing for you sir and thank you again and check out rotopat over on NBC sports. Herbert's kind of your guy. You keep coming back to him and in drafts. Who's like you're not on my team guy? Like it doesn't matter what the draft circumstances are every drafts different. Like you end up never drafting this guy. Is it Daniel Jones based on these comments or is another quarterback that you just don't want anything to do with even though some people or maybe higher on the player? There's no one truly. I am kind of a classic like the
Starting point is 01:02:10 ADPs, right? I'll be honest. Like, it's weird. It's the real life stuff makes it a little hard to draft Deshawn Watson. But no, I mean, Justin Fields. The RLS, real life stuff makes it differently. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Justin Fields, you don't have to draft creeps on your fantasy team. You absolutely can make decisions about that.
Starting point is 01:02:30 It's fine. You said it not. I'm not drafting Josh Allen a lot, I'll say, where I do, I wonder, I feel like we're getting like this bored with bills hype and that's leading them to be undervalued. And like the real NFL and fantasy. But I do sort of feel like maybe the Allen thing has already peaked. And they're going to get serious by trying to protect him more this year, which good for him in real life, not good in fantasy.
Starting point is 01:02:50 Well, he didn't run nearly as much people kind of forget in his second and third seasons. He was more around 4 to 500 yards. And then the last two seasons actually it cranked way back up where he was, you know, incredibly effective rusher. And it sounds like they're going to maybe dial it back. You're right. But he does throw for 35 touchdowns every year in a ton of yards. The bills have like an offensive identity crisis, I feel like, and they have like an unsettled skill core still where it's like, is Dalton Kincaid, like the number two passing game weapon?
Starting point is 01:03:17 That seems like maybe not a good situation. Like if he's your number two, and it's either him or Gabe Davis. But I just like since that identity crisis from the bills down the stretch last year, I don't really know what they've done to fix it. Like the backfield didn't get markedly better. The skill core did not get markedly better. And it just all comes down to like Josh Allen, like man of steel. That works until it doesn't. And I am worried that they're going to finally start dialing that backing.
Starting point is 01:03:44 It's like Greg said, they kicked it up to, I would argue, unsustainable levels the past two years. Rotopat, you've said it all. Thank you, my friend. I look forward to reading you throughout the upcoming campaign. Stay healthy, kid. I look forward to listening. Thank you so much for having me. Take that.
Starting point is 01:04:00 See you. Love that guy. Great writer. Like that, I'm glad he remembered that comment. Whoever said it or me. Right. I've always enjoyed his writing. I enjoy any writing that has a little humor to it.
Starting point is 01:04:13 He that just drops those little zingers in that you just don't read often, especially in this world. Great tweeter. I mean, especially in what other world would you be read in my... Like fantasy. Oh, all right. It could be a very dry world. Like, there's not a lot of writing happening elsewhere as far as we know. How do you know?
Starting point is 01:04:32 Well, Greg certainly doesn't believe there is. I think there could be. It came up with Tucker. Comma, Ross, on Monday, and it just came up again. And in general, Deshaun Watson is just an interesting conversation as we are now hitting this 2020 season. We talk about 2020, what he was, how did he, this is what Ross made the point, how did he perform like a superstar with a terrible Texans team that lost 12 games?
Starting point is 01:05:03 And I just pulled up the depth chart because we know that the Browns have, I think, a pretty solid core wide receiver may be a little iffy but obviously the offensive line is sturdy the running back i think is the best pure runner in the sport um here is the texans the last game of the season in 2020 brandon cooks kiki kutti got cut actually uh Darren fells at uh tight end david johnson was still there uh at running back with duke johnson backing him up that's a mess You had Laramie Tunsell, the anchor at left tackle, a young Tunsel. The brown setup is better, and we'll see. But he's right, too.
Starting point is 01:05:47 I thought Rodopat made the point, like, sometimes these guys disappear, and the magic is just gone. So, and then to the Greg of it all, like, do you want to creep on your team? I, you know, if it puts money in my pocket, yeah. I don't know. I'm sorry to have no scruples, Greg. No, no, I don't mean that. It's the same thing as like if you're a Jets fan,
Starting point is 01:06:09 maybe you don't want Patriots on your fantasy team or maybe you don't care about it. I don't think one way it's wrong or the other. But if you're like me and you just want guys that you want to root for, and for instance, you don't like the Jets, you don't feel like drafted. I'm like, you don't have to. It's all like most of it is.
Starting point is 01:06:26 But you're a smart man, Greg. Right. To use like personal biases, I know Watson's a whole other category in a lot of ways. But that's such a small person. But you're narrowing your yield. But like by like an in. infinitesimal amount.
Starting point is 01:06:38 Like, what would it take to, like, if you have five or six players in the league that you just... I have a million of those biases where you just kind of like some players more than the others and you take guys that you like because it's not going to be any more or less accurate. The one annoying thing about fantasy is when I'm sitting there watching 12 games at once
Starting point is 01:06:54 and I'm rooting for six teams I can't stand because of some guy... Now, I get what you're saying. Like, if you want to be cutthroat, you don't worry about any of that stuff. But I feel like the roster has energy. And, like, there's a player I don't like it's giving me weird feelings
Starting point is 01:07:08 about my own fantasy team. It's my fantasy. That player is not going to have the season he's going to have regardless on whether he's on your team or not, I guess is part of my point too. So it's like if Watson, for instance, has a big year,
Starting point is 01:07:21 it might be annoying to you that he has a big year. But it's not going to change either way whether or not he's on your team. My point is like the idea of being cutthroat or not or like trying to remove all biases. It's not going to change your chances of winning your league or not much either way.
Starting point is 01:07:39 We all have a million different biases that go into all of these sorts of decisions. And oh, by the way, fantasy football and this is why I like it on some level, is almost mostly luck. It's mostly luck. The most important thing that goes into fantasy by far is luck. And you're trying to work on the other 30% 20% that's not luck and just have fun doing it. It's a fun activity. but you don't have to put, you know,
Starting point is 01:08:07 you don't have to go too crazy. If you don't like Deshaun Watson, bury him. Sure. I'm with you. I just, you're an analytical mind, Greg, and you don't believe in momentum. And now you're saying you could eliminate all these different players just because you don't like them.
Starting point is 01:08:20 It does slightly affect your chances over someone that has a completely broad view of who's the best available. But I guess, and I'm thinking of West too, when we do this episode, like the way we looked at fans, was taking guys with huge ceilings, guys he wanted. And in the end, like, I guess we were a little different than Pat, who says at the right ADP I'd take almost anyone.
Starting point is 01:08:45 There probably was a group of like 50 players that those were going to be my list. It's kind of how the Patriots do NFL drafts. Like, I have guys I truly believe are going to be good this year. I'm basically going to take those players. And there's probably only about like 30, 35 of them. And that's fine. So you're eliminating a million players, but you're counting on kind of year of That's how the Patriots run their drafts, and maybe it's not the smart.
Starting point is 01:09:08 Got a little Bill Belichick over here. There you go. Yes. Bill wasn't against bringing in problematic guys. No, he wasn't. I, Antonio Brown. Take the guys you like is the point. Take the guys that you really believe.
Starting point is 01:09:19 Remember the fight? Don't worry about it. Greg had about Antonio Brown on our podcast. I will not forget that ever. Wild. You guys were going at it. He would, yeah, West. He questioned your integrity in some way.
Starting point is 01:09:33 It got personal. It was very upset. that the Patriots were bringing in. I miss that, man. Cody and Brown. All right. Let's get on the boat. Let's go fishing.
Starting point is 01:09:43 And you know what we're looking for? Okay, I'm going to show my lack of outdoorsman because I was going to say, we're looking for big game. That's more if you're hunting. That would be a land-based animal. Eric, do you know, like, if you're looking for something in the sea, that's like a big catch,
Starting point is 01:09:56 is there some type of esoteric terminology I can use here? The line, fishing rod. I think they call it a catch. Okay. All right, let's throw it out there. The lore. I'm not an outdoors min either, guys. Trust me.
Starting point is 01:10:10 For some reason, I thought you might be. All right, I'm throwing it out there. Throw my... I got my line out. Uh-oh. I got a nibble. Mark, grab me from behind by my hip. Yes, I will.
Starting point is 01:10:24 Thrust against me and then pull back. I'm latching on to you. Thrust again. Pull. It's happening again. Thrust, pull. I got a big one on the line. Get him in the boat.
Starting point is 01:10:33 It's Evan Silva, former brick-by-brick man at Roto World and now doing his thing with his fancy man, establish the run background. Evan Silva, the Big Fish. What's up, buddy? Welcome back. I'm doing really well. How are you guys doing? Very good.
Starting point is 01:10:50 Great there. I like the beard. You look summer. Evan, this is Silva time of year. That's the thing. Silver season? It's busy during the season, but I feel like mid-August to late August is when this is when, this is when, Silva, you know, pays for all those Taylor Swift tickets for his daughter.
Starting point is 01:11:10 Which, by the way, life changer. I used to listen to, like, rap and, like, Creedon's Clearwater Revival. And now I don't even listen to that stuff anymore. It's all T. Swift. So, Silva, because I was at the Swift concert in L.A., you're there. And because you're a man's man. You're a burly guy. Like, are you letting yourself go and letting the music watch?
Starting point is 01:11:33 over you or you more in like dad mode just letting it repel off you while you check your phone i mean there's definitely a sense of you know it's awesome because my daughter loves it and she knows all the words and you know it's it's a way for us to connect um but i mean i genuinely like taylor swift's music at this point so yeah good for you yeah now uh we have evan on as we do every year the big fish to talk about sleepers and busts. And this is, I think this is one of the things that really define the real fantasy head, the guy that can nail these year after year. Get us going with one of your favorite sleepers right now in fantasy drafts in 20203.
Starting point is 01:12:19 And this is perfect timing because I literally just released my sleepers and bust article on Establish the Run.com. Boom. And then last night, it just got published. so go subscribe people this is him and adam levittayan two of the best yep at establish the run on twitter establish the run dot com on the internet first sleeper tank bigsby um wow lighting out training camp i mean rave reviews he uh already got a snap with the first team offense in the jaguars preseason opener the jaguars were not pleased with travis et n in short
Starting point is 01:12:54 dartage and goal line situations last year he's one of the least efficient runners in scoring position in the league. Tank Bigsby was really good in short yardage and goal line. Travis ETIA also has been a little bit of a disappointment in the passing game as a receiver. Tank Bigsby caught 51 passes over his final two seasons at Auburn. I think he's going to play a lot right away. I bet him at 75 to 1 to win offensive rookie of the year.
Starting point is 01:13:21 Wow. Now, we're not allowed to do that as NFL employees, but, you know, we are sponsored. you know, the company is at various times. So that's a good one. I love that because Bigsby, sometimes you just assume that whatever role E.TN had a year ago is a role that he's going to have this year.
Starting point is 01:13:39 It's like Bigsby's a third round pick. They like him. And his name is Tank, and he actually looks like a Tank versus Tank Dell, which is confusing that his name is Tank. Can I just, here's what my pushback would be or my concern that maybe
Starting point is 01:13:54 Tank is the new flavor in that room that the coaching staff likes. Oh, you love ETN. But ATN, who I do think has upset, but he's also a first round pick in 2021. And I know Irma Myers history and all that. But like, are they going to fade ETN enough this season where Tank's going to get enough work
Starting point is 01:14:10 to be a guy that you want in your lineup in the fantasy realm? That is a concern. I think Travis ETN is probably going to have a real solid season. It's just I think he's at risk of losing high value touch. High value touches the Tank Biggs me. I mean, you want your running back score. touchdowns and catching passes. And I think that there is some danger that Travis E.TN faces.
Starting point is 01:14:33 He risked losing a lot of that work to tank to tank Bigsby. Now, Evan, a couple of years ago on this annual episode, you and Greg got into it over Sam Darnold, a memorable verbal tussle. And I kind of, one thing I love about you is when you get on board with someone, it reminds me a West. There's an element of stubborn, like I'm not listening to anyone else. So who is someone out there that maybe let's go negative, a bust, that you're like, I can't believe that other people are this high on this player.
Starting point is 01:15:04 What you see on tape, what Evan Silva observes, does not agree. And hopefully Greg disagrees with Evan's take. Here we go. Well, I'm worried about Jonathan Taylor. Okay, okay. And not just about the fallout with ownership. I think that they probably will end up hatching that up before week one. But I think it's a concern that he's still having problems with his anger.
Starting point is 01:15:26 ankle, which he aggravated several. He suffered a high ankle sprain. He really suffered multiple high ankle sprains last year. And I'm also worried about the complexion of the Indianapolis offense with, you know, throwing Anthony Richardson into the fire. I think that Anthony Richardson is going to have some special moments. I also think that the offense as a unit could struggle. They have two gaping holes on their offensive line at left tackle and right guard. And in college, Anthony Richardson rarely targeted running back. So I'm worried that the offense isn't going to be very good or at least that there's going to be a lot of ups and downs
Starting point is 01:16:02 and then Jonathan Taylor isn't going to catch passes, which really isn't something that he's ever done a lot of previously even going back to Wisconsin. I wish I could push back and we could recreate that, but you can't force it. I'm actually glad you brought that up because when we talked with Marcus and Mike Florio earlier, Josh Jacobs and Taylor were brought up kind of
Starting point is 01:16:23 in tandem as these two guys around late second round that they both have their issue. And to me, Jacobs is such a safer bet just because of what his role is going to be, the type of player he is, the receiver that he is, and my confidence that he'll be back playing, whereas Taylor, to me, is very risky. It's interesting to me, Remandre, Jacobs, and Taylor are going around the same spot. And to me, I would love to have some Remandre. I'd love to have some, Jacobs, I'd be fine with, and Taylor, I'm with you. I would stay away.
Starting point is 01:16:50 You know who's right above them, though? I feel like we've got to do this every year because you are the big fish and you love to talk about the big dog. And I do want to hear your other sleep, more sleepers and bus, but I am just curious where are you at with the big dog, Derek Henry. Because he's still getting taken like he's the big dog. Derek Henry. I know, and I'm real worried about him. I mean, he's starting, I mean, the mileage is really getting up there. He's 29 now.
Starting point is 01:17:17 You go back to Alabama, this dude had massive workloads in college. And now he's, what, you know, seven, eight years into his NFL career. He's getting older. I'm really worried about the Titans offensive line. I mean, our offensive line analyst, Brandon Thorne, ranked him as the worst offensive line in the league. And then they lost to Marco Jones, who they were planning on potentially being a starting guard. Yikes. So, and Derek Henry has never caught a ton of passes.
Starting point is 01:17:45 So I'm worried about him. I would have him on a bus list. Yeah, two things. we had Ross Tucker talking offensive line earlier this week. He had them at number 32 and of his offensive line rankings. And Traylon Burks got carted off the field at Titans joined practice today. And we don't know what his situation is. That would not make the passing game any more scary if you took out that second year player.
Starting point is 01:18:09 So, yeah, a lot to be nervous about. Give us some other positives. You got some more sleepers? Maybe, maybe. Yeah, look, we can talk about Marvin Mims. You know, K.J. Hamler is out indefinitely. Tim Patrick is out for the season. I think Marvin Mims is going to be a lock for three receiver sets
Starting point is 01:18:29 playing opposite Corlin Sutton with Jerry Judy in the slot. Marvin Mims, I think, is a player that Sean Payton very much envisioned, like Brandon Cooks, who he drafted in the first round with the Saints back in 2014. Marvin Mims can really, really run. He averaged almost 20 yards per catch during his college career. And Russell Wilson, I think, can still. throw the deep ball. So I think Marvin Mims is going to, like, be a,
Starting point is 01:18:56 he's going to have a chance to be a third receiver in fantasy. Tight end feels especially dicey right now in the fantasy realm. We know Kelsey's locked and loaded Andrews. And then it gets a little weird. I mean, you got T.J. Hawkinson is going high in drafts. George Kittle. We love George Kittle, but is he a fantasy guy you can count on? Wallers had injury issues the last two years.
Starting point is 01:19:18 Kyle Pitts, we talked about a little bit earlier. I feel like there are a lot of cases to be made for you have the rookie class that came in some interesting names, sleepers and bus alike. Like who do you like? Who do you not like in that group? I think that if we're talking about the rookies this year, Luke Mutsgrave and Sam Leporta are going to be every down players right away. It's hard for rookie tight ends to make immediate impacts. I mean, this is, you know, historically, it's difficult because a tight end has to learn to be not just a tight end, but also a receiver. and also an offensive lineman because they got to be able to block to stay on the field. I think that Luke Musgrave, though, is really interesting in the first preseason game.
Starting point is 01:20:01 He played 12 of 12 first team snaps with Jordan Love. So, I mean, they are fast-tracking him. I also think that Kate Otten in Tampa Bay, if you're playing in like a deeper league, he had 42 catches as a rookie last year. And I think that he has a chance to be an every down player as well. I want to ask you more of a philosophical question because there are definitely fantasy people out there that, yeah, they'll watch the games on Sunday and there's 18 televisions and stuff, but that's the end of the film watching. I know that you are a dogged film watcher, and a lot of sleepers and bus, we don't even know about them today, like six, seven, eight weeks into the season. The complexion has changed and guys are coming up out of nowhere and your draft is in tatters and you're searching the waiver wire.
Starting point is 01:20:44 Like, what do you have to say about how much film people should be watching? Actually, no, if you want to win these leagues versus being a casual. I would say that it's helpful to watch football. I would say that from a fantasy football standpoint, watching film can actually send you in the wrong direction at times because you just get infatuated with a player's explosiveness or, you know, if a guy's, looks good and you know then you can you can become infatuated with that what you what we really want in fantasy football though is to determine which players are going to get the most opportunities and we want to kind of dig into the coaches minds and not just look at oh this player looks electrifying you
Starting point is 01:21:34 remember amir abdula yeah when he ripped off that monster run in the preseason and his ADP went from like the eighth round to like the third round you know it's that kind of a play that can stick in your mind and influence you to overrate a guy when Amir Abdullah had fumbling problems. You know, he had, he couldn't really pass protect early in his career. And he wound up being a bust. Right. It's, it's kind of the yin, the yang. Because one of the things that I believed in, too, is like, you still want to bet on good players. Once you're confident, like, we had mentioned the Bucks receivers this year, not as good as situation, but there's still really good players. Like, to me, there could be value there. I mentioned
Starting point is 01:22:14 Damien Pierce is a guy, like, to me, I feel confident. He's a really good player, and I think the situation will be good enough. Who is someone, though, that's a bust for you this year, that maybe it is a good player, maybe it's not like a big name, a big name that is quietly a big Established the Run fan, and he clicks that Sleepers and Bus List, and he knows he's a big time fantasy guy, and he sees his name, and he's like, oh, I can't believe the big dog, the big fish. did did me like that well brief hall was on track to win offensive rookie of the year yeah and then he took acel in his meniscus on october 23rd and man the the signals coming from
Starting point is 01:23:01 the jets i'm with you know they were connected to uh jimir gives they were connected to jamaul williams uh they wound up signing dalvin cook to a deal that was i mean that's starter money in the NFL. And it makes me wonder if Aaron Rogers was like if he's the one pulling the strings there, because remember he took that pay cut, and he was like, look, I want Dalvin in the backfield with me. I think that Brie's fall will be a factor in the second half of the season, absolutely, as they ramp them up and as he gets further removed from that injury. But I'm worried that he's not going to be startable early in the season. And for a guy who's been going in the third, in the fourth round you want those guys to be startable right off the bat so yeah he's just there's a lot there's a lot of
Starting point is 01:23:48 red flags on brief hall right now yeah i mean as a jet's been i want to go up and get him high but i i would much rather let someone else take a swing on him early and if he fell and people really down then maybe i grab him and stash him for a bit i'm with you real quick just cycling back to tight ends you mentioned some of those rookies because this is the position group that gives me a lot of stress uh as i had Kyle Pitts last year, for instance, and that just drove me mad. Who's the veteran of that group post-Celsie Andrews that you're feeling good about? Who's the guy that you might, you're fading when you do your drafts? I have really not been getting very much Kyle Pitts because of the concerns about the passing
Starting point is 01:24:28 volume is Desmond Ritter really any good? You know, I mean, I feel like Kyle Pitts, look, he had over 1,000 yards as a rookie tight end, all right? He's super talented. It's just are the targets going to be? there for him at the end of the day. We just had Jimmy Kemsky, longtime Eagles beatwriter, on the Establish the Run podcast, and he was talking up Dallas Goddard.
Starting point is 01:24:51 And Dallas Goddard, that he's just been, he used the word uncoverable in training camp. Dallas Goddard has never scored more than four touchdowns in a season. I feel like he's the guy who could all of a sudden pop up and score like nine or 11 touchdowns in a high octane Eagles offense. So I'm starting to draft more of him. I think sometimes there's so much focus on the early parts of the draft and your wide receiver two and everything. And a lot of times it's one with like the sixth or seventh receiver you take
Starting point is 01:25:21 that you can just use as your third receiver way more consistently than you expected going to the season. I just got to throw some names at you. I don't know if any are on your sleeper list. But just some interesting late receiver names, you tell me if you like anyone or don't like them. I'm going to go Michael Tom. Thomas, Eliza Moore, Bateman, Skymore, and let's throw in OBJ.
Starting point is 01:25:45 Just pick one or two out of those. Who stands out either as a good or a bad guy? Well, I was actually going to bring up Sky Moore because it looks like he is locked into two receiver sets right now. I like him. Low rookie season, but man, he was coming out of Western Michigan. And it's not uncommon for Andy Reed to slow play rookies. you know, think about the quarterback in Kansas City. I think Sky Moore is going to jump right into that
Starting point is 01:26:13 Juju Smith-Schuster role. Juju-Smiths-Schuster had over 900 yards last year, and I think that Sky Moore, there's a chance that Sky Moore is, like, more talented than J-J-J-J-Jus Smith-Schuster. We also have Matt Harmon on the show, famous for his reception, work on wide receivers, and he thought that what he saw out of Sky Moore last year,
Starting point is 01:26:33 you want to talk about a guy who watches all the tape, That's Matt Harmon. He thought that what Skymore did, even in his minimal opportunities, he thinks that he's going to break out in his second season. Do you have, when you're scanning the league, and maybe this isn't for the star players, but teams that you won't touch, if there's a certain environment or an offensive scheme that you don't like,
Starting point is 01:26:54 or you just say, nope, I'm going to, if it's all things being equal, I'm ignoring Team X. I can't believe that the Steelers brought back Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. I mean, blame Canada. After the season, I just like took, you know, like a month off and like just slept.
Starting point is 01:27:13 And then when I woke up, I was like, Canada is still the Steelers' offensive coordinator. That's a worst case scenario for Sessler to ask that question. He's riding the Steelers hard this summer. So now he's nervous. Well, we'll see, you know. Well, we will see.
Starting point is 01:27:29 Wow. You don't want to get in Silva's crosshairs if you're like a bad OC. Silva can get the. fangs out sometimes, especially if it's late at night. And the players, you know, he values them and he says they're good or not. But if there's like an OC in Silva's crosshairs, he will put, he will put them underground verbally on the written page. And Matt Canada sounds like that guy this year.
Starting point is 01:27:54 Like, it's trouble. All right. Last one for me. The Niners have all sorts of skill players. I'm kind of bringing up things that are bringing me stress. Debo, Iyuk, CMC, Kittle, any of those guys that kind of bust is strong, especially in that offense, but guys you're staying away from or guys that you think, like, Iyuk's getting a lot of pop for maybe finally becoming a number one. Like, where are you coming down on these Niners skill players?
Starting point is 01:28:21 I like them all. I mean, their offense is going to be really good again. The problem, though, is that because there are so many dudes there that are really good at football, you're just, you're going to have to live with the ups and downs. they're going to be boom or bust on a weekly basis. Debo's going to have monster games, and then he's going to have games where his four catches for 34 yards. You know, George Kittle is famous for that.
Starting point is 01:28:43 You know, like he's almost streaky. Like he'll have three games where it's like, this is the best tight end in in the NFL, and then he'll disappear for four weeks. So it just, at the end of day, you just, you have to kind of live with those ups and downs for that team. Christian McCaffrey will be consistent, though. Right.
Starting point is 01:29:00 To me, though, Debo is such an obvious, I think, by low guy. That's one of the best ways to play fantasy is just like talented guys who have already established that they can have a high level of production take them off a bad year, period. If you just just do that,
Starting point is 01:29:15 you'll probably do pretty well because he was going and probably, I don't remember, but rounds two or three last year, and now it's five or six, it's pretty simple. Just take that guy. And he also sounds like he kind of knows
Starting point is 01:29:26 he blew it last year and is very much ready. He showed up. He showed up out of shape. Yeah. And now he looks like an absolute beast. I mean, there have been videos all over the internet. I mean, he's cut up this year. He's been boxing. He looks like a stud. He would be
Starting point is 01:29:39 on my list of guys that I would be trying to get in any big draft. Evan, have you ever in your life? You're a... Last one for Evan. Big dude. You know, out in the taverns and the bars of America, have you ever been into a verbal or physical fight
Starting point is 01:29:55 over fantasy football with someone? Great question. That's how you close it. No, no. Not over fantasy football. How about something else? I actually don't believe that. I don't know if I believe that. That kind of looked like a guy that was lying.
Starting point is 01:30:11 Silva, you've said it all. We thank you so much. Establish the run, follow Evan, doing great work over there since its inception. What, like five years ago now? Yeah. Look at you. Getting your business off.
Starting point is 01:30:25 Great podcasts over there, too. I listen to it every week. Thank you, Big Fish. Thanks, guys. See, Evan. Thank you. All right. Two things.
Starting point is 01:30:32 one about Evan. Wait, did I do the thing, though, like at the Combine Press Conference where it's one more question and I took it somewhere that's not going to add value? And everybody just groaned for their feature. He's working on his own feature.
Starting point is 01:30:44 I was curious. I actually want to know if he had. Evans, one of the reasons I like Evan is, like, it doesn't matter how ridiculous your intro is or anything you say to Evan. Like, if we do a 37-second ramp up where I'm saying we're literally fishing for him and pulling him into a boat,
Starting point is 01:31:01 as Mark is behind grinding into my buttocks. Right. He's not going to smile. No. He's just like, there is just, he's a fish. Like, he's just like staring back right at you. It's unsettling. Finally, the only other thing about Debo, Gregi, and I'm with you.
Starting point is 01:31:18 And kind of maybe circling back to the point as we wrap things up here. Like draft guys who you want, draft guys you want with you. Debo, I had a couple years ago, and he was just unbelievable. But the one thing he got to deal with Debo, if you're watching Niners games in real time he's going to have there's going to be two moments in every game
Starting point is 01:31:38 where it looks as if Debo Samuel just suffered not a season threatening injury but a life threatening injury and he's so right with him dead on the field and he's basically you're thinking oh here comes the cart here comes the towel over the head his helmet's ripped off he's screaming
Starting point is 01:31:53 he's on the sideline you're screaming at Fox give me another sideline shot and I've never seen a man in more pain And it was like he just shot in the stomach with a shotgun. And then he's back on the field in three seconds. Well, there's a, like a FIFA soccer element to his game. There's a mental, yes, there's a mental capacity. You're taking a hit when you watch him.
Starting point is 01:32:13 I recommend just enjoying Debo Samuel Fantasy player from afar, not in real time. That's my final time. That's my final thought. Anybody else have a final thought as we wrap things up? No, I think, I think you handled it. I think doing your draft a little closer to the season is nice, you don't get you don't get in trouble but I'm glad we're getting this episode out a little earlier I know you're drafting this weekend day Sunday night it's starting to crank up this next
Starting point is 01:32:37 weekend the weekend after the following week is is when it most happens but I do think the idea you know that it's supposed to be fun you know you want to take it seriously but you want to take you want to take guys you like that's it's all I'm saying it's your team you're going to have to live with this guy these guys I'll live with it I don't care who it is you're producing Now, it gets a little thorny, if we're talking about DW again, a little thorny if he's on your real team, because then it gets a little messy. My fantasy team, I can divorce myself from basically anything.
Starting point is 01:33:11 I would draft O.J. in 1974, I don't care. He's on my team. Well, you didn't know what was going to happen back then. Oh, that's a good point. But in your league, because I know it's your friends and your guy friends, but you're a league employee who's bathed in, you know, football data left and right. Do they ever sort of look at you and say, not fair?
Starting point is 01:33:27 You should have a different job if you were in a place. Yeah, I catch heat for that. That's part of the fun. Do you win the league or league? I'm always in the playoffs. I've made multiple deep runs. I have titles. Yeah, it would be bad if I was bombing in that league.
Starting point is 01:33:37 I'd get killed for it. So I'm representative to what I should be, considering the amount of hours we put into it. Well, you should be winning them. But again, it's annoying because this is a great cheat sheet for me, today's episode. But there are people in our league, like Shilin, Bob, Greg. They listen to our podcast.
Starting point is 01:33:54 So now everything that I wrote down is a good point. Not only they hear that. as well. Like, oh, Dan reacted to that in a different way. It's banging me a little bit. Yeah, but we should stop baby broadcast to this episode. That reminds me of the NBC sports slash roto roll draft we would do every year. And everyone was going off my goddamn rankings.
Starting point is 01:34:13 I can't do anything. I'm getting boxed out on all the guys I want. It would be quite just to do it one year, like totally go opposite all your takes on the public sector. Just to kill your draft. That would be a move. All right, thank you to everybody. Thank you again to all our guests that make the fantasy extravaganza. Give me my music.
Starting point is 01:34:36 Florio, Grant, Dardy, Silva. I mean, that's a murderer's row. And we thank them all. Good luck in your drafts. Until Thursday, Heath the call. This is an I-Heart podcast.

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