NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - 7 Surprising Team Projections

Episode Date: July 25, 2025

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy to talk about team projections for the NFL season. First, Gregg reacts to the surprising news of Christian Wilkins being released by the Raiders (00:05). After the news, Gregg and Aaron explain the team projections around the 49ers (05:15), Jaguars (11:10), Commanders (15:10), Raiders (19:57), Chargers (23:17), Steelers (25:20), Cowboys (27:40), Buccaneers (26:37) and more! NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

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Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Hey guys, this is Greg Rosenthal. This is the NFL Daily. The regular top of the show is going to be in just a minute. But after we recorded, a great show with Aaron Shepard. looking at some team projections.

We got the news that Christian Wilkins of the Raiders has been released by the team. The Raiders are one of the teams that we talked about at length in this show. So we wanted to get it updated, especially because this is the first news bomb drop that we've had. To remind you, Christian Wilkins, formerly of the Miami Dolphins, signed a five-year, $110 million contract just a year ago. At the time, it was reported that $84 million of it. was guaranteed. Wilkins has already gotten just about $50 million of that guaranteed. And it sounds like, according to our insider, Ian Rappaport, who has been out front with this story, that there is

a disagreement between the Raiders and Christian Wilkins about how he has been rehabbing that surgically repaired foot. They wanted him to get surgery. They had multiple medical opinions that said to get another surgery. He didn't want to do it. They tried to take away. a big chunk of his guaranteed money, about $35 million. He and the NFLPA apparently has filed a grievance to get that $35 million. So sometimes when the insiders report fully guaranteed, it might not be fully guaranteed, but that will be settled in the court system. And I guess between the money and the injury, the Raiders in this new era with John SpyTech

at GM and Pete Carroll at head coach decided this guy just isn't worth it, which is pretty surprising for a guy who was a top 10 defensive tackle really when they brought him into Las Vegas, but obviously the injury has really changed his career. He was only able to play five games for the Raiders. The money situation is going to be done in the court system, but it really leaves the Raiders in an interesting spot. They are putting a ton of dead onto their cap this year, basically taking the pain of all that money this year and saying it's not even worth keeping Christian Wilkins, we'll eat the money this year and try to be free of everything a year from now, but very disappointing for them because it's not like it helps

their cap situation. It actually raises their salary cap situation. And this is one thing you can do with an excess of salary cap situation is eat it all now and move it into the future. But man, if you look at the Raiders roster at defensive tackle, it is about as thin as any team in the entire NFL. Adam Butler is their number one defensive tackle. After that, it's really a question mark who is going to be starting for this team, whether it's Lucky Foto, I believe is listed as the starter right now. They have a rookie, you know, third day pick Tonka, Hemingway. It's not great. They're going to have to maybe look at free agency. But I think it's a sign of an organization, Pete Carroll, John Spitech, who want their guys, who are willing to take a little short.

short-term pain. So maybe it makes sense to take short-term pain for a little long-term game. But man, it is hard to be optimistic about that Raiders defensive line, especially in the middle. Now let's get to the rest of the show. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're two decades into explaining what DVOA is. I'm Greg Rosenthal. And yes, we are going to have the originator of the stat on this show. throughout. It is Aaron shots of the FTN Football Almanac.

And Aaron, I have been quoting DVOA as just sort of like a quick and dirty best way to measure a team's overall efficiency for like two decades. And at this point I feel like I should just stop explaining what it means. But there is really no easy way to explain what it means.

No, there is. It measures the success of every play compared to a league average adjusted for situation and opponent. Okay. That's the short version. I'm going to copy that, but it's a very smart way, and I'm a simple man to get where a team is,

where they're potentially going, and we use it throughout the course of the season. And of course, Aaron uses it to write what to me is the best primer preview. If you're going to get one thing to get ready for the season, to me it is the FDN football almanac. If you've listened to this show and around the NFL for a while, used to be called football outsiders,

and I recommend everyone go and get that. And so I got it. And what I thought we would do today, Aaron, is just go through a handful of teams and we'll try to pick ones that maybe we haven't talked about as much on this show. And then we'll also pick ones that just stuck out kind of for surprising projections.

And we'll start with the 49ers, who I noticed in your projections and out in Vegas, you're basically looking at a total rebound. You have the 49ers projected for 11.2 wins, which is the most in the NFC. It's the third most in the NFL. You have them with a 79.7% chance to make the playoffs. And what really surprised me was you have them almost two wins

ahead of the Cardinals and the Rams who are very closely bunched behind them. Give me kind of the statistical reasons why you guys are so bullish on San Francisco. First, I'll mention San Francisco is actually our sample chapter. So if you want to see what the FTN Football Almanac is about, you can go to FtNFantasy.com slash almanac and actually read the entire San Francisco chapter that Brian Knowles wrote. The 49ers were better than you think last year, despite the injuries. They were 14th in DVOA, despite leading the league in adjusted games lost to injury.

And they were 14th in part because their special teams were really bad, which doesn't tend to carry over from year to year. So offense and defense-wise, they were even better than that. They were the best 11-lost team since 1978 by DVOA. That's a wild. It's a wild stack. I realize you don't put a banner up for that. Right.

It's a weird one. As far as what they're going to do this year, it suggests good things. Now, they obviously have questions to me more than anywhere on the defensive line. Like a lot of changes there. You're counting on potentially three rookies to have pretty big role. and a couple guys who haven't played, you know, at a particularly high level at defensive tackle. What is it, though, that makes them stand out

in terms of having that big of a projection other than the schedule because the rest of the NFC West on some level has a similar schedule? What puts them like a couple wins ahead? Is it just the tried and true Shanahan offense, essentially plus all the injury games that they missed a year ago? that's a lot of it and schedule wise you know the nfc west has mostly the same schedule but the three games that are based on where you place in the standings it just because of which divisions that is the 49ers is much easier than the other three teams in the division defensive i mean again

they were better than you think last year defensively they were 13th offensively they were nine so let's imagine that the defense right is healthier but you've got rookies got left, whatever, does about the same thing, 13. The offense, we're big believers in Shanahan, healthier again on offense. They have McCaffrey for most of the year. If they have Iyuk for most of the year, although it does seem like he's going to miss the beginning of the year, right? They get a little bit better on offense, let's say.

You combine that with the really easy schedule. You have a division champion. Yeah, I think that the case against them, and that all makes sense to them. And I haven't decided whether they're going to be one of my playoff teams or not, but I'd probably lean towards yes, and your projections influence that some. The case against them, to me, would be, okay, the two things on offense that you feel like you can count on opposite the scheme is Purdy, who I think is a good, young, improving quarterback and Kittle, who's still playing at a very high level. After that, it gets pretty murky,

because counting on Christian McCaffrey to just be healthy is a little murky. Ricky Pearsall in his short career hasn't shown too much and he has got some injury issues. Obviously, Debo Samuel's gone and wasn't playing at the same level. We don't really know about IUC and every year 49ers fans look at their offensive

line and they're like, why didn't we invest more? And it's kind of another season like that. You feel great about Trent Williams. You feel great about the youngster Dominic Pony. After that, it's pretty shaky. If Trent Williams, for instance, were to miss some games this year like he has at points the last couple of years,

I don't know if they have a backup plan as much in place. And so I get the projection. To me, they seem like, along with the Cowboys, who we might hit as well, as one of the highest variance teams in the league, you could absolutely see a scenario where they are back there where Kyle Shanhan lives in the NFC championship game. And I think you could see a scenario where they're closer to 500. But one of the things I love about your almanac is it does point out things like,

not only were they not as bad as you remember a year ago. man, they lost a lot of tight games to really good teams until the injury wheels fell off. It was like at the last second. And sometimes the emotion of watching the season, you do overrate that. You guys are absolutely right. They were losing the very good teams.

They were very close games. And really, they probably weren't as bad as they were a year ago. A lot of variants, though. I feel like they're not. I feel like I know more about the Rams, at least. I think about part of the variance is something you alluded to a little bit with the offensive line. this is a team with bad depth.

If they get hit by a lot of injuries again, that's what they really lost when they lost guys this offseason is they lost a lot of their depth, right? Piercell is no longer depth. He's now a starter, right? Like defensively, they're going to depend on rookies and they don't necessarily have good guys behind them. If they have the injuries, I don't know if they have the depth

to be, you know, 500 for five or six weeks. while they wait for everybody to get healthy again. Yeah, that checks out. I did think it was interesting. You had the Cardinals just very slightly, but essentially you had the Cardinals and the Rams at the same spot. And that is really supportive of our Cardinals' love on this show. And I like hearing that.

Let's go to the AFC South. You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's only by half a game in your projections, but you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have them at a 54.7% chance to make the playoffs. What helped the Jaguars? It was probably the most surprising, maybe not the most surprising, but it was up there with the most surprising division winners over the Texans this year.

Well, the Texans, you have an issue that comes up with a number of teams, which is defense is less consistent from year to year than offense. So when you have a team that was so good, on defense and not good on offense, which was the case with last year's Texans, you expect it's more likely that the defense comes back to the pack a little bit than that the offense improves, especially since they still have tons of questions on their offensive line. With Jacksonville, we see a defensive improvement. They were the lowest team in the league in takeaways per drive last year. Only 4.7% of drives ended with turnovers. That is something

that heavily regresses to the mean from year to year. They were terrible against the run on third downs, better on first downs. That's also something where first down run defense tends to carry over more. Third downs are obviously really important, but there's less of them. So the sample sizes isn't as big. I think some of this is we had to guess about Travis Hunter. Like we give credit for drafting defensive players in the first couple of rounds because defensive players actually tend to have a more pretty,

predictable effect on the team than offensive players when you draft them. Is Travis Hunter a defensive player? Like that, I mean, I don't know. Does he count as an offensive player? I mean, he counts as both. Why wouldn't he? Does he count us both? Right, we counted him as both.

So if he's not a big addition to the defense, then maybe we're overrating their defense a little bit. Maybe their defense is below average and now they fall behind Houston. But on offense, I think we may be underplaying them. Listen, I'm one of those people. And there's a lot of us out there who still think that Trevor Lawrence has got it, right? He just needs a coach to unlock it. And there is a feeling like Liam Cohen can be that coach. Brian Thomas Jr. is so good.

Having Travis Hunter now is the second wide receiver. Yeah, there's questions about the offensive lie. But Trevor Lawrence, God, should still be good. So even if the defense doesn't live up to our projection, I feel like the offense can be better than our projection. I agree with you on the offensive. side. I never thought I'd hear the day where Aaron Schatz uses the word that a quarterback has it, you know, very not analytically sound there. And it's funny because I would push back on that for Trevor Lawrence. I think he's got everything but it. And that's, yeah, I mean, I'm thinking,

I guess I'm thinking more about his natural abilities rather than instinct. I guess when people say that someone has it, they're thinking more instincts and leadership skills. And I'm thinking more the arm. Yes. I do think he has the talent to get it done. I think in the right. system. He can pop up. I think there is something, whether it's mentally, whether it's just as simple as reading defenses and needing more time in the NFL to kind of mature on that front. Or, yeah, just that Juno Sequa that you want out of your quarterback. I don't think he's shown that yet. And yet, I can see the case for them on offense because immediately, if Travis Hunter is as good as I personally think he is,

I think that's up there with the best wide receiver combinations in a league. And not like the best young wide receiver combinations, just one of the best wide receiver combinations. And then I think Liam Cohen is going to be able to scheme up a pretty good running game to support them as well. The offensive line definitely has question marks. Like, we don't know enough about Anthony Campaniel,

their defensive coordinator, but I see the case there. Was surprised to see them over the Texans. I was even more surprised, though, Aaron, to see the optimism that you guys have for the commanders. This was probably the number one thing that stuck out to me when I first opened. The first thing I do is check the projections. You have the commanders at 10.6 wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.

So you have the commanders with a 74% chance to make the playoffs, a better chance to win the NFC East over Philadelphia. It's the second best odds in the NFC to make the soft. Super Bowl? What is it that your numbers are telling you about the commanders? Because for readers of your Almanac, very often a team that improves so much one year to the next, you often expect a regression the next year. And you're kind of predicting the opposite here. This is a little abnormal. You're right. And also, fourth downs are going to regress. They were like possibly the best fourth down team ever last year. If you consider how successful they were on fourth downs and how

often they went for it. And there's no way that that continues again. But the system thinks that that is going to be countered by the additions like Samuel and Laramie Tunsell. And it doesn't necessarily think Daniels is going to get better, but it doesn't think he's going to get worse. There is a individual quarterback projection part of the team projections, and it likes Daniels a lot. And it has the defense was 23rd last year, going to improve a little bit to be more like 16th or 17th, which I think they can do if Latimore is healthy and Trey Amos is good. And I know that there are questions about who is going to exactly rush the passer other than Frankie Louvre, but if they can put an average defense out there with a very good

offense, then this is a pretty darn good team. And schedule again plays a role. They have an easier schedule than the Eagles who, like the Texans, we think the defense was so good last year and so important to what they did, even if it is still one of the best defenses in the league, if it's not as good as it was last year, and they lost a lot of talent, the Eagles lost more veteran defensive talent than any other team with the variable that I use for losing veteran talent. If the defense is not quite as good as it was last year, then the Eagles, there's still one of the top teams in the league, but in their own division, they have to fight with the commanders who we also think are one of the top teams in the league. Yeah, you have them in

your overall DVOA projections for the year, the Eagles, as the seventh best team in the NFL. So not that much different than where Washington is at five, but that's interesting because to me, I'm thinking the Eagles have a very high ceiling for the offense, but what your numbers are looking at, and you still have them in the top 10, you have them 9th, is that for so much of last season, really for the last season and a half, the offense during the regular season has been inconsistent. It's why Eagles fans are frustrated with Jalen Hertz's quarterback rankings and all that sort of stuff.

But I'm amazed that you have the commanders so high, and I think it's something commanders fans can put in their pocket and push back against everyone who, just naturally as analysts Aaron no one wants to predict the same teams to make the final four or the final eight every year and when you're looking at it from a year ago like Washington is the team I think that the national media

is just going to expect to fall off except for you. Yeah no I understand that and normally we absolutely believe in the Plexiglass principle which is teams that significantly improve from one year to the next tend to then take a step back in year three. The fact that we have the commanders going counter to that is counter to what normally comes out of our projection systems. There's no question about that.

And I was talking on our last show with Jordan Rodriguez and with Bridget Condon that, yeah, something doesn't sit right that we've had such elite consistency at the top of the league, really, for the last couple of years. And really, if what you project to happen happens, which is the 49ers who have been around, but them rebounding, Philadelphia coming back to the pack quite a bit. We will have a little bit of a shakeup, but man, just seeing that 4.4% chance for Philadelphia to win the Super Bowl eighth or ninth, I think you have them, among all the teams. That's pretty low on the list.

Let's take a quick break. We're going to come back with more teams that caught my eye in terms of their 2025 projections. What's up everybody? Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Sticks, we take you inside the game from scouting reports and player development to team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. Every week, we study the tape, talk to decision makers, and share the insights you won't

find anywhere else. It's the kind of conversation that connects the dots, from college football prospects to the NFL stars of tomorrow. We break down the draft, analyze matchups, and evaluate how teams put it all together on game day. Plus, we dig in the coaching strategies, roster construction, and the trends that shape the league year after year.

Whether you're a diehard fan or just love understanding the game on a deeper level, we give you the full picture. If you want insight that goes beyond the box score, this podcast is for you. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Six podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

podcasts. Hey, this is Matt Jones. Now, I'm Drew Franklin, and this is NFL Cover Zero. We're just here to try to give you an NFL perspective a little bit different. Did you see the Colts pretzel? That was my other big takeaway from that game. What was that? Oh, my.

We think NFL coverage should be informative and entertaining. And twice a week, that is exactly what you're going to get. Listen to NFL Cover Zero with Matt Jones and Drew Franklin on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season?

Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your approach. Listen to the NFL fantasy football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Back on NFL Daily, talking with Aaron Shops, who's in Worcester, Massachusetts, which I know you didn't grow up in Aaron.

I don't believe. No, I'm sharing Massachusetts. Right, but used to kind of... Right next to Foxborough. Used to kind of be the butt of jokes, but Worcester's on the comeback trail. What do you have to say about people that used to call Worcester, like the armpit of Massachusetts?

We've got a good food scene here now. It's coming back. There's definitely been some really good restaurants to have opened up. We have the Hanover Theater. There's like some life in Worcester. There's no question. I mean, listen, if I could afford it, would I rather be in Boston? Oh, no, don't say that.

There's definitely good stuff happening here. There's serious. Don't say that. No, Worcester's great. I only say that. because I think it's underrated. You got Holy Cross there. Speaking of underrated,

we've got the Raiders with your projections getting 8.3 wins, which is, you know, an average team, 38.6% chance of making the playoffs this year, according to your almanac. That is ahead of the Chargers. I know Raiders fans will love that. I think if you ask the average Raiders fan

if they would take that, like 39% chance of making the playoffs and at least eight wins. I think they would sign up for that in a heartbeat. I was surprised, though, to see it, Aaron, because of all the questions on the defense. To me, the defense is one big question mark. And yes, Pete Carroll is there.

But if you just look at total talent that you know is going to be healthy, there's an argument, you know, they are among the bottom five defenses in the league. What is it that your numbers liked about the Raiders? I think we're expecting Wilkins and Coons to be back, and those are big addition. Right? I mean, if those two guys are back, then they're in a good place. I will say, I feel like the Raiders' Chargers thing is more about the Chargers being surprisingly low than the Raiders

being surprisingly high. We talk all the time about teams with a high range of possibilities. I feel like the Raiders have a low range of possibilities. I feel like with Pete Carroll and Gino Smith around, this team is not going five and twenty. but it also really doesn't feel like they're going 12 and 5. I mean, I hope that you're right. Aaron, I don't know. I look at the Raiders, just the overall talent level. Where do they excel other than like young tight ends?

And I like P. Carroll and I like Gino Smith. And I worry, and I'm rooting for Gino Smith, and I'm rooting for the Raiders, do worry that there's a low range of outcomes that has them picking towards the, top of the draft but right i i think it's even worse is if it's a low range of outcomes that has them picking 14th right like they miss the playoffs they go eight and nine they're better but they miss the playoffs and gino smith is old and he is going to get old and they do need a young quarterback

right because what you know we think he's good this year but he won't be as good next year and he won't be as good the year after that they might now be in purgatory where you know there are supposed to be a lot of good quarterbacks in next year's draft, so we'll see, but maybe they can't get the quarterback that they need. Man, uh, selflessly though, no, that is not the worst case scenario, them being like three and 14 and me having to eat it every Sunday. I think Gino is good enough. They're, they're not going to go three and 14. And there is talent. They added some talent. Wilkins being back, Kuntz being back. I think there are some good players on the offensive line. I don't like this idea of starting Alex Kappa, but you know, I mean, there's some good players.

the receivers are questionable right it's mostly depending on two rookies Jacoby Myers is a night slot receiver but he's no idea of a number one but the number one is really Bowers right uh although Jacoby Myers all he cost was three for 39 and Bill Belichick wouldn't give them that

contract a few years ago and oh he's a great value that contract has aged very well wait why do you have why do you think you have the charger solo by the way while we're there yeah we have their defense taking a big step back and there are questions about the offense. Again, this is another team that we're like, we don't know what the receiver situation is.

They're going to depend on a second round rookie probably to start, Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired. And there's a lot of questions about their defense. Now, what we may be is underplaying the effect of Jesse Minter, right? Because you were talking about, it's interesting. Why don't we have Washington improving so much and then coming back to the pack? that is essentially what we have with the Chargers defense. They improved

so much, we have them coming back to the pack. But what if Minter is a really great coordinator can counteract that, then they're going to be better than our projections say. Right. You're losing the idea of Joey Bosa, who wasn't really Joey Bosa all the time, but you're a little

thinner there. You're losing Puna Fort. You got such great production out of Deon Henley and a couple mid to late round. Carheeps still. Right, cornerback picks. Hart Heep still was so good last year. Cam Hart was very good for them too, and they're both going to start. Are they going to keep being that good?

There is something maybe just because I've been out there to the bolt and everything, and there's something about Harbaugh and Minter that make you believe that that part of it will stick, but I'm curious to see it. Two of the most talked about teams in the league, the Cowboys and the Steelers are quite low in your projections. I've been talking about how I think the Cowboys have a huge range of outcomes. You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven, point seven wins each.

You have them under 30% to make the playoffs each. You have the Cowboys closer to the Giants. Let's start actually with the Steelers, though, out of these two. What is it about this team, which has added a lot of juice in the offseason

in terms of D.K. Metcalfe. And obviously, Aaron Rogers. What is it about the Steelers with all the veteran talent that they do have on defense that your model is not liking? I mean, first of all, we may be not taking into consideration the magic of Mike Tomlin. I'll fully admit, Mike Tomlin's ability to manage every team to nine and eight is crazy.

Part of it is Aaron Rogers. Like, Aaron Rogers was bad last year. Aaron Rogers is old and was not good with the Jets. And the idea that he's going to be good again with the Steelers is possible, but it doesn't seem likely. Yes, they have D.K. Metcalfe, but they lost George Pickens. How much is Metcalf really better than Pickens? And then it sees the defense taking a step back. There are some older players on defense.

It is overall an older defense. I love, you know, Cam Hayward, but can he continue to keep playing at this level? You know, they added Darius Lay, but he's older. Like, I think it sees the defense taking a little bit of a step back. Yeah, that makes sense to me. And, yeah, your numbers, and it was one of the reasons why I felt like I was going crazy, because the eye test was that Aaron Rogers was not playing well last year if you watched each and every snap.

And the raw stats in terms of yards and touchdowns and interceptions, like people were like, no, actually he was okay. But your metrics in terms of like the efficiency kind of clocked that he was closer to where Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were playing last year in terms of efficiency, that he's not necessarily an upgrade at all. that he was getting a lot of cheap yards, like on third and nine, not, you know, like coming up short of the sticks and not a guy who is particularly effective. I'm surprised, though, that your Cowboys projection is so low with them getting Dak Prescott back.

Yeah, I'm a little surprised too. Yeah, young offensive line, which I think at least there's a lot of draft capital there and there's a lot of potential there. I think there is an outcome where they're a really good defensive line or offensive line. Like, what do you think went into that? Yeah, I agree with you. It is a little bit of a surprise that there are. offense doesn't rebound a little bit more. You know, you have the new coach, all other things being equal when you have a new system,

teams take a step back. You don't normally notice it because teams were bad and the effect of regression to the mean is stronger than the effect of take a little step back with new coaching. But there is, you know, and I mean, I will say subjectively, separate from what the system says, I'm not a Brian Schottenheimer guy as far as him being the head coach and running the offense as well. But no, I mean, listen, Dak Prescott was an MVP candidate two years ago. We absolutely may be underrating how important it is to get him back. He didn't play that great last year, but he didn't play that great in like six games. It's not a real sample size. Right. And enough

weapons, I think, for him with Pickens there, with Jake Ferguson, who I think is an underrated tight-in. Ferguson was terrible last year, by the way. I mean, some of it may have been the quarterbacks throwing to him, but he wasn't very good with Prescott throwing to him either, which again is probably small sample size and he's better than that, but it is worth saying. Absolutely fair. I'm actually glad you pointed out. I don't know if we've had a Jake Ferguson conversation on this podcast over the last year. You're right that he was not the same guy. He falls into the bucket to me of players that I used to think about when I did fantasy, but I think it applies reality-wise too. If you have a young player who has shown a

consistent level of high quality, he can get back to that point. But you're absolutely right. And I think he showed that in 2023, but he was not that guy last year. So we'll see who he really is. Just before we go, I know I didn't mention this one to you. It does strike me looking at your numbers that the Panthers are dead last, like five and a half wins, under 10% chance to make the playoffs. There is this feeling of like they turned a little bit of a corner last year and then your big brain and your big numbers is just here to like pour a whole bunch of water that actually, no, there's a chance they're picking first overall again. The turning the corner was not as good as people seem to remember it being,

but also, I know that this goes counter to what we think is intuitive. But teams that improve in the second half of the season, it's not an indicator that it's going to roll over to the following season. I know we want to believe improvement in the second half of the season means you're going to be better the next season, especially with young players, right? And Bryce Young's still young quarterback. But it really doesn't mean that.

You need to look at the whole year, and the whole year was pretty bad, especially the defense. Right. There's nothing Bryce Young can do about that. And they didn't really add much this offseason to the defense. And the defense was really bad. And it's probably going to be really bad again. That being said, they have hope. I feel like the Saints are the worst team in the league because they do not have hope.

At least the Panthers fan. If you're a Panthers fan, you have hope. You have more hope that I'm wrong than I think like a Saints fan has. Yeah, you have the Saints projected to be like the 30th best team in the league. Part of that is schedule too, that their schedule is a little easier than the Panthers. But it raises a good point that almost the easiest thing in the NFL to do is to go from two to five wins. Like we don't need to be giving too much of a pat on the back to the Panthers to go from two to five wins. They actually were outscored by more points last year than they were in the,

their two and 15 season. I do think that they made an effort to really improve that defense. And I do believe in the coaching, Agiro Evro, a little more than what's shown up on the field overall. So I'm a little more optimistic, but I think it does make sense to apply a little bit of a caution. And I do agree with the notion that the NFC South to me is more separated than people realize. I think the Saints and the Panthers are kind of in a bucket at the bottom. I think the bucks are kind of clearly on top and that the Falcons are kind of clearly in the middle of those groups, whereas Panthers fans

probably feel like they're a little more in the mix than you do, at least. Mike Tennear's chapter for Tampa Bay definitely argues that we should take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seriously and not just think that they're a team that gets a buy into the tournament because of the division

that they play in. Yeah. There are still some people there that played on a Super Bowl winning team. Right. And stacked up some wins after that Super Bowl. win and always seem to be playing their best at the end of the season and I think are built the right way, which is with an outstanding offense line. Great front office. Yes, a very good front office. Who knows? Someday, maybe shots, they'll finally take you out of that office and put you into a front office. But until then, you're going to be producing the best preview

almanac, whether it's a magazine or whatever. Now the airport magazines, like the fantasy Maggins are like 15 bucks, so you might as well buy a book. Anyways, everyone check out the FtN Football Almanac 2025. Just Google it or go to FtN Fantasy. You can absolutely find it, get it online, get the hard copy, whatever you want to get. Appreciate you, Aaron. Thanks for having me on. That is it for this week of shows. Our first week back doing daily shows on Sunday evening. We're going to post it a little bit early. Some of my favorite shows of the year are our training camp shows where we collect all the nuggets and the news items that most shows are just too lazy or just don't care enough to do. So we're going to go through each and every

team with Nick Shook, starting with the AFC on Sunday night when we're doing those type of shows. You know it. Football is back. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday.

Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Six podcast on the I Heart. Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies.

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