NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Eight Surprising Team Projections

Episode Date: July 16, 2026

Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy to discuss eight of the most surprising team projections for the 2026 season. Then, Dan Pizzuta, FTN Almanac writer, joins to dive deeper into some key team projections, including the Bills, Dolphins, and Lions.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're enjoying our last weekend before training camp begins. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in Massachusetts, visiting the parents while I can before it gets too crazy in talking to another Massachusetts resident. Yes, you know him, you love him. Aaron Schatz. He just wrote Aaron Schatz's Ft N Almanac, also known formerly as the Football Outsiders,

Almanac way back in the day, football prospectus. I was reading it then for my money, the best season preview out there. We had them on last year to give us some surprising team projections, and we have them back. How are you doing, Aaron? I'm good, man. I got it out a few days earlier this year, and now I'm ready to talk to everybody about it. I'm ready for training camps. I'm ready for our long summer without the NFL to be over. Yeah. And I'm pretty excited. Yeah, I felt bad for all our UK listeners. watching that game against Argentina. But all that means is you've got to just turn your attention

to the other football. And it's time to do so. I have enjoyed the other football for the last few weeks, definitely. But I am an NFL guy through and through. So, yeah, I'm going to frame this just as a conversation about a few teams in terms of their projections that caught my eye.

Of course, Aaron is the author, the creator of DVOA, which is to me like the best overall metric. And that's part of the projections that go into each and every season. And just we're going to start with the teams that stood out to me. And let's start with the Houston Texans. I am a huge fan of the Houston Texans.

I have been considering all offseason picking them to make and or win the Super Bowl. And then I see you got my back. I don't know if that makes me want to take them more or not, because now it won't be as like original. You have the Texans as the AFC favorites. Your numbers say they have about twice the amount of odds. to win the Super Bowl as any other AFC team. It's a pretty clear top three teams in the NFL for you, too, in terms of DVOA.

It's the Seahawks, Rams, and the Texans. What are your numbers and your model telling you about this Texans team? Yeah, first of all, let me say, even if we're a little bit wrong about the Texans, there's enough of a gap between them and the rest of the AFC that they still look like the best team in the AFC. So first of all, their defense is really good. We know that we talk every year about defense being harder to predict than offense, but there's still plenty of indicators of their defense still being really good. If you were going to pick a defense to not regress, it would be a defense full of young stars where it's based more on the talent than the skeep. Like that is what you would pick.

So obviously, look, there's a chance everyone gets injured. true of every team. As far as their offense goes, here is the shocker. In the regular season last year, C.J. Stroud ranked 11th in passing DVOA. 11th.

He was horrible in the playoffs. Like, there's no question about it. Like, you can't mince any words about that. He also didn't have Nico Collins and Schultz for one of those games. And the offensive line is improved. They should have an actual running game this year with Montgomery.

And therefore, we think that their offense is above average. Now, the projections came out with it in the top 10. If they don't make the top 10 in offense, but they're still like 14th or 15th, that's still the best team in the AFC with that defense. Yeah. And to be clear, look, when I say they have double the odds to make or win the Super Bowl as any other team in the AFC, it is still a very top heavy but deep AFC where you have, you know, five, six teams with legitimate chances to make it, but you do have the Texans

decently ahead of the pack. I do wonder on the offense, because I love seeing that projection. I like the idea, you know, from a non-numbers point of view, that you have continuity at the offensive coordinator. Can they be better on that side, kind of getting used to that offense? The changes on the offensive line, though, have been so dramatic for a second straight season. Some of it, when you, when you, it all makes sense to me on paper, but I do wonder kind of how the offensive line specifically and all those changes. It's veterans, it's rookies. It's a little bit of a mix, you know, is thrown out to being into a top 10 offense.

Yeah, I mean, it's because of everything else. It's because of C.J. Stroud, I think, is good. And I think Nico Collins is very good. And Tank Dell should be back. And Montgomery improves them in the running game. I will fully admit, and this will come up with some of the other projections, the thing that my projection system has the hardest time with is changes in the offensive line from you to year. That is the hardest thing for me to turn into a number and put into a projection system.

But they made improvements. And they don't need to have a great offensive line. They need to not have one of the five worst offensive lines in the league. Right. And I think there is a route to doing that. And the running game is so important. And C.J. Stroud, you know, you're speaking my language. I totally saw that from him last year. It was an up and down season,

including the playoffs, we're totally down, but I think it can be a lot better this year. So they're first. It's not too surprising. The bills are next. And I should have mentioned at the top of the show, we're doing a two-part show kind of talking to some of the writers from the FDN Almanac. Dan Pizzuta is going to come up later in the show and give us one number that helps explain the teams that he wrote about. And that includes the AFC East, which includes the number two favorite in the AFC right now, the bills. But what I thought was interesting is noticing next up, the Bengals and the Ravens. And I'm going to kind of pair them together. Your projection model has the Bengals as the third best chance to make the playoffs, a strong bounce back

season, 9.8 wins, which for your model is pretty high. Like I said, third in the league. And then the Ravens who have the same win total projected. But I found it interesting. You had them 16th overall in offense, 16th in 10th. defense and 16th and special teams. They could not be a more average team in terms of your projections. And even your win total, like, wasn't crazy. And yet, you know, maybe it's the schedule. Is it as simple as that that they have that high of a win total,

the Bengals and Ravens kind of matching up there? Yeah, everyone in the AFC North has an easy schedule. I believe they play the South divisions, especially the NFC South, which still looks like the weakest division in the game. So that's a big part for Cincinnati and Baltimore. I feel like Baltimore should be higher. Our numbers, right, for people who know DVOA, the 23 and 24 Ravens were two of the best teams we've ever measured.

It feels like the rebound from last year's disappointment should be more than this. But it didn't come out with as much of a rebound as I thought it was going to come out with, especially on offense. And I definitely buy the argument that no offense with a healthy Lamar Jackson can be 16. I also would say you can't go into the season expecting you're going to get 17 games of a healthy Lamar Jackson.

But with the schedule being easier for those teams and the Steelers, I think not being as good, another year older for Aaron Rogers, new coaching staff, et cetera. I mean, if we thought Mike Tomlin had coaching magic, the fact that he's not there anymore means there is not coaching magic. And Cleveland is the worst team in the league. So I think that the Ravens and Cincinnati are both really good playoff opportunities. Yeah, I do too. I was surprised a little bit like how easy the schedule is. You have the Bengals as the easiest schedule in the league. And like I said, the Ravens fourth or fifth.

And look, your model had the Patriots as the easiest scheduling league going into last year. It played out that way. The bills because they had the same out of division schedule for the most part, had the second easiest schedule in the league. And it really helped both of those teams. These things matter. What are you seeing, though, in terms of the Bengals who haven't gotten a healthy Joe Burrow where the defense was better late last season, but at best it's average talent and average coaching. I think they would take average, but my instinct at this point would be they have below average coaching and then the talent with some of the imports that they made might be around average.

What are you seeing overall with how the Bengals could get there to the top of the AFC board? It's offense. I mean, we have them projected with the top five offense when you're, you look at how, first of all, how well they played with Flacco, which was pretty good. And then when you look at, you know, Burrow, hopefully playing for the whole season and the receivers that they have and Chase Brown and everything, it looks like a top five offense. The defense projects to be a little bit better than last year. One of the things I will say is that it goes against common sense. But teams that improve significantly in the second half of the year, that does not necessarily roll over. to the next year. There is no correlation between how much better you are in the second half of the

season than the first half of the season and how much better you are the following year. I know that sounds crazy. I don't think it sounds crazy. We can always explain it. Like we could always, this guy got better. These young players got better. These players learned the scheme. And now they're in the second year of the scheme. There's usually a good way to explain it. But the Bengals defense improving so significantly in the second half last year is not necessarily going to carry over to this year, but we think their offense is really good. It makes sense to me. It always annoys me whenever we talk about players who end the season poorly and they take that end of the season as more important than October or November. It's like all those games count totally equally.

If you're able to excel at that high level at the professional level, it means you have it in you. You just want to see the consistency. It doesn't count anymore just because it's at the end, except for when it does and the playoffs start. But you know, you can't control that. The Colts are next on my list of just surprising projections when I went through them. You have them as a better than 50% chance to make the playoffs. You have them, I wouldn't say it's far ahead of the Jaguars, but we're going to get to the Jaguars you have as a mediocre team.

But it's enough ahead of the Jaguars that I consider it significant. And like I said, in your models, the Colts are making the playoffs more often than not. I'm fascinated by this team because the Jets have that pick. And I just think that there is a scenario where the Jets end up having two top five picks or they're able to control the draft. And this Colt season really goes poor. I see them as a high variance team. Maybe you guys do too.

But ultimately, it came out on average to pretty good. What about the Colts has your system relatively bullish? Yeah. I mean, I'll admit that subjectively, if you asked me, my opinion, rather than the numbers, I would put the Jaguars ahead of them. They were fifth in DVOA last year. Even with the decline at the end of the season playing Rivers and Riley Leonard at quarterback, fifth.

They were fifth last year. So to have them go from fifth to 14th, which is where they're projected, is a big drop. And we just don't have them dropping anymore. Now, it's possible that I'm sort of over-projecting Jones as the quarterback because he's not going to be able to be as good as he was in the first half of last year with his Achilles hurt because the mobility is, you know,

so important for his game. And we also don't know whether he'll be back week one. I believe that in the simulation that I did, I gave him a small chance of being out at the beginning of the year. I did the same thing for Patrick Mahomes. Mm-hmm.

But overall, this team was really good last year. They really were. And like, you don't think that he can do that again, but I'm not projecting him. to do it again. I'm just projecting him to be better than he was in the past. Right. And I hate to say it, Aaron, but I value your model, your system more than your own opinions. How does that make you feel, though, that like your, like your machine has overtaken, like in terms of value compared to your brain and your, I mean, there are times, listen, last year,

we're going to, we'll talk by the end here about a team where the vibes are bad. Last year, the dolphins, the dolphins, my numbers said were the second best team in the AFC East. And I said, the problem is, I understand what the numbers say, but the vibes are so bad there right now that I feel like there's no way they're going to do this. And on one hand, they were worse than the projection. On the other hand, in the second half of the year, they were not. They won seven games in the end. The vibes got better. Yeah, they were kind of fine in the end.

So the vibes matter. I don't believe that there's nothing but numbers out there, right? Like, vibes matter. Like, these guys are human beings. Their attitudes matter and all that. but what I try to do is point out places that you may not realize that certain things are better or worse than you thought they were. And look, your DVOA, which I think is also useful throughout the course of the season, often is ahead of where consensus thinking is. You guys rightly pointed out

in the book how Seattle more or less went wire to wire as the best team in the NFL last year. and your numbers were saying as early as like early October, September, certainly throughout the rest of the season, that like, yeah, this is probably the best team in the NFL. And they end up playing like it throughout the course of the season. They're one of the best teams according to DVOA of the last 25 years. So sometimes you've got to listen to those numbers, even if, you know, it doesn't totally make sense to you.

Let's go to some numbers that I would say surprise me. I don't know if they didn't make sense, but I am bullish on the Cowboys and the Chargers, for instance, making the playoffs this year. they are both projected in your system to be totally average, I would say, a little below average, technically 17th and 18th overall in DVA way. When you look at those two teams and your model sees them very middle of the pack, not necessarily teams to get excited about as Super Bowl contenders. I have a feeling they'll be trendy, kind of dark horse picks. What are the things that gets

in their way maybe of a better projection? The first thing I'll say is that kind of like Lake Wobiegone, everybody is above average this year. Because the bad teams look so bad, 19 teams project to be above average, not 16. And so we are projecting the Chargers and the Cowboys to be above average, even though they're 17th and 18th. The Cowboys, their defense last year was the third worst defense since 1977 by DVOA. Of course, it's going to to be better this year, but I don't know if it can be better than like 28th in the league or something. Their offense, this surprised me, was only eighth last year. We feel like their offense was really awesome, but it was eighth. So to go from eighth to like 14th, you know,

I mean, subjectively, I feel like they're better than 14th. I feel like they're more like eighth. But on the other hand, I mean, the system doesn't know this, but do you trust George Pickens to keep his head on straight for 17 games. You know, there's, there's stuff going on with that team where you're like, I don't know, if I, if I trust this, I agree with you that the best case scenario, the best case scenario is their defense goes all the way back to like average, and their offense is fantastic, and they win the division. I mean, it's, you can absolutely tell that story of what's possible for the Dallas

season, but what the projections are saying is sort of like, slow your role a little bit on how good they were last year. Pickens don't expect the same season out of him. Giovante Williams, you're hoping he can stay healthy for an entire season, but that's a little bit of a gamble. You know, Dax had his injuries, certainly. They survived a lot of offensive line injuries, so that could actually be a plus,

but how good is the offensive line? I think the better case for them, you know, exceeding these expectations are using another, you know, precept you guys often talk about is how defense can be very inconsistent year to year. And I think that the coaching and the defensive. front are good enough, you know, they absolutely could be average or slightly better than average with a good scheme. And I could see the scheme carrying them. What is it about the scheme, or maybe in the Chargers season? I was even more surprised that you kind of had them.

Yeah, the Chargers is one that I personally don't quite get. We had them too low last year, too. I don't know what it is about the Chargers that the system doesn't like. I know that's weird. I built the system. I should understand everything. I think there's a definite possibility here that I'm not accounting enough for the return of Slater and Alt. What I will tell you is this. You don't know coaches are good. We think coaches are good. We think Mike McDaniel is going to dramatically improve the charges offense.

But we don't know because we've only seen Mike McDaniel coach one offense. Usually when a coach is on the, they're on the second team, the sample size of their success. is one. And so you don't know whether it was the coach or the players. I know that sounds ridiculous to suggest it was the players and not the coach in Miami, but, you know, the quarterback had his problems, but the receivers and the running back were pretty good. You don't know whether Mike McDaniel is the genius that you think he is. It's not until you're Vic Fangio, and you've been like eight places that you can have enough of a sample size that you can be like, yeah, this coach matters. Fair. The case for McDaniel.

is that Kyle Sannahan did everything but like break labor laws to prevent him from ever leaving. He thought Mike McDaniel was so valuable. That is definitely part of the case. Yes. I mean, listen, you want to talk about film study rather than stats, the run designs in Miami were fantastic. And what he got out of Tua was fantastic, given what, you know, we know about Tua's talents. So, you know, subjectively, I believe Mike McDaniel is a really good offensive coordinator. I feel like we had the Chargers too low this year.

You probably have the Chargers too low. We had them too low last year. We probably have them too low again this year, but you don't know. New coaches, both sides of the ball, usually teams, new coaches. You take a little bit of a step back, all of the things being equal. Defense has to get used to a new coordinator as well. So we'll have to see why, you know, I mean, it's not Herbert. the Herbert, you know, every team has a quarterback projection.

You start with the quarterback and then you put that into the offensive projection. Herbert is good. So it's not that. I don't know quite why this is the second straight year that we haven't had the Chargers higher. So I wanted to talk Bears. I wasn't surprised that you had them relatively in the middle of the league, depending on how you want to categorize it, make the playoffs DVOA, but relatively in that middle and third in that division,

you're pretty high on the Lions. And then you do have the Packers ahead of them too. But I just wanted to bring up, they had the most dramatic split between offense defense, almost the most dramatic split you could possibly have, which you have them as the second ranked offense and the worst defense in the league. The only team that was even remotely close to that biggest split,

you had the Packers as the fourth best offense and the 26th best defense, which in my head makes sense. The Bears one is even more dramatic, but explain, I guess, that split and what you really see as negative in terms of the defense going, going that bad. As far as the offense, second year in the system, it likes Caleb Williams projection, you know, number one pick in his third year, who played well last year, you know, not great,

but good. DJ Moore is not losing a lot. It doesn't feel like, given his performance last year. Defensive, every red light in our projection system goes off with the bear. Okay? By far led the league and takeaways per drive. By far, huge regression coming on takeaways per drive. Third down, much better than first and second down. Big sign of regression. Talent loss. They lost a bunch of guys. They lost an all pro safety. I know we can talk about, oh, but the guy they signed from Seattle is really good. And they drafted the end of men and he's good. I understand that. And so in our talent variable, we're including what they added, not just what they lost, but they lost a lot of And I know, like, Jalen Johnson will play a full year and he's very good and that makes them better.

But overall, it's just the defense just pings all the red lights. It is hard to win back to front. They did last year in terms of the secondary being the best part of your team. The denisance, Dennis Allen is a real thing. He's a good coordinator. Had a nice, had a nice season. But counting on that, again, the defensive line. Like, there's a reason that all they're talking about in Chicago this offseason is the lack of passers.

They have no passers. Speaking of the denizens, he came from New Orleans. I was a little stunned that you had them 31st in DVOA. You have them as a bottom three offense. The defense, I could see, but you have them as a bottom three offense. And you have them as the worst team in the NFC and the lowest NFC odds to make the playoffs, despite being in the NFC South answer to the Saints fans. Yeah, yeah.

This is another one that subjectively feels low. I totally admit it. their defense was good last year. It just, it sees, you know, some of the losses and it sees regression to what they did the year before, what we call the Plexiglass principle, which is the teams or units that dramatically improve from one year to the next, tend to take a step back in the third year. On offense, you know, it doesn't like what they were good at versus, the other thing about defense is they were much better against the run than the past, which doesn't carry over from

year to year as much. on offense, you know, Shuck is okay, but it looks at a quarterback who is okay and is a second round pick and says in year two,

this is not as likely to be as good as a quarterback who's okay and as a top pick because that's just history. And so, yeah, it has the Saints. Now, the funny thing is,

the chapter talks about that we think the Saints are on the right path and that in that division, there's a legit shot. Like, we could be wrong about the Bucks rebounding, and then everybody's got a shot in that division, and that includes the

Saints. So I think if you read the chapter in the FTN Football Almanac, we don't come off as being as negative about the Saints as the numbers are. I talk a lot about teams where you can tell a story, right, where there are teams that we project to be bad, but you understand why we might be wrong. And the Saints have the story. They have the young quarterback and the defense that improved in the second half. And you can see where they would be much better than this projection, as opposed to a team like, you know, Cleveland, where you can't really tell the story. Yeah, it's totally fair. It's also worth, you know, noticing we're going to get into a team the Dolphins with, with Dan a little bit later, which has a record number of, you know, dead cap money.

This year's Saints team still has a ton of dead cap. And it is, they survived it last year to at least have an improved season. But when you're just not able to, to use the resources that the rest of the NFL is using. They'll be out of that cap, you know, hell after this year. But that is a problem for them. All right, we did eight teams. My ninth, I'm just going to mention quickly before we say goodbye. I just want to give a little shout out to the Cardinals.

You have them better than eight or nine teams, you know, depending on how you want to measure it. You do not have the Cardinals as the very bottom of the bottom. You kind of have them as the top of the bottom, I would say. There is a little bit of a cutoff, especially in the NFC, it's a team not likely to make the playoffs. The Cardinals are one of them, certainly. But maybe not the tire fire that everyone has expected.

Cardinals were 23rd, 23rd and overall DVOA last year. Raise the banner. Despite being the most injured team in the league. And they're going to be healthier this year. And they have the hardest schedule, just like last year. Last year they had the hardest schedule. They project to have the hardest schedule. Now, this is the team where I was talking about vibes.

I can tell you numbers and I can tell you they were 23rd last year. I can tell you that this player is better than you think and they didn't get rid of Josh sweat and Will Johnson in his second year. I can go on, but the vibes there are terrible. And if you said to me, one team, you know, I definitely think their Vegas over under is like three and a half or something. All they have to do is win four out of 11 non-division games to go over that. But I know the vibes are really bad there and the vibes may win.

and out over the. Yeah, the X factor is whether Mike LaFleur is a better head coach than we would really have any reason to know right now. I don't particularly tend to think that's going to happen. The chapter is pretty negative about LaFleurr. He was a weird hire and Nathaniel Hackett is offensive coordinator. I know he's not the play caller, but that's even weirder. It is a little weirder, but sometimes these head coach and hires, they surprise us. Aaron, your projection, didn't surprise me. They didn't shock me for the most part, but we went over nine of the more surprising teams. Everyone should go buy Aaron Schatz's Ft N Almanac. You can get the print copy, which is big. I like it. You can get the digital copy. If you want, you go to FtN. You go to

Aaron Schatz's social to find all the information to go get that and appreciate having you on, Aaron. Thank you. FtnFantasy.com slash almanac is where you get the PDF version. I appreciate you. And we're not done yet pumping up your book because we have one of your great writers from the book, Dan Pizzuda, coming up after the break to talk about six of the teams in a little more depth back in the minute. Hey, I'm Ruby Carr, the host of the podcast, Encore. Check out our brand new episodes featuring music from the show that everyone is reheating as we speak. Heated rivalry. Join me as I go behind the songs that brought Shane and Elia together.

I'll tell you the stories of Fice, My Moon, My Man, Wolf Parades, even anything and tattoos all the things she said and how they all became a part of this global phenomenon stream encore on iHeart radio crave or wherever you get your podcasts so i mentioned before the break we're going to have a first time guest on nfl daily it is dan pizuda he's done great work elsewhere including with the 33rd team but in this scenario we have him on because he wrote six team previews in the FDM Almanac that we mentioned earlier. What is going on, Dan?

Yeah, thanks for having me. Long time listener. Happy to be here and talk some football and previewing the season. Can't believe like we're in that time. Finally. This is the last quiet week. I've mentioned it a few different times.

It will be the last weekend without training camp. I couldn't even find any real news to talk about on this show, but that is not a bad thing. The one thing, actually, I'm lying, that I will mention quickly, is that Alvin Camara signed a new deal with the Saints for less money, but still plenty of money. And it sounds like he'll have one final rodeo there as a member of the Saints, which is great.

Our friends at the Saints Block Party podcast actually reporting that Gail Benson, the owner, got involved here. I love it. She doesn't do that too often, but she got involved when she got Mickey Loomis' old buddy Dennis Allen out the pay and out of that job a few years ago now. And it sounds like she got involved keeping Alvin Camara for one more year, which I love to see. Let's talk though, Dan, like I mentioned, you wrote six team previews, which is one of the reasons why I love the Almanac. So well, it's great writing. It's not just about the numbers, but you were tasked with previewing the

AFC East and then a couple of the AFC North teams, the Lions and the Vikings. So one assignment I gave you for this show is to come up with one number, just as a jumping off point, for each one of these six teams. And we'll kind of just dive into that number and talk about these teams on the show. So let's start with the Buffalo Bills, who I mentioned earlier, Dan, with Aaron, is projected according to FTN to have the second most amount of wins in the AFC, has the second highest Super Bowl odds, a decent amount behind the Houston Texans, but still, you know, right at the top of the league. What is the one number you have here to help explain this Buffalo Bills team? Yeah, so the one that stood out to me, friend,

and it's kind of a last year thing that's going to shape this year is Josh Allen saw the highest rate of man coverage among all quarterbacks in the league. And we typically don't see that one against good quarterbacks and two against mobile quarterbacks because, you know, when you're in man coverage, a lot of defensive backs are going to turn the back that allows the quarterbacks to run a little bit. but there were zero receivers that scared any opposing defense last year. And so Allen was 19th in yards for dropback against man coverage.

He was eighth against zone. And I think when you look at it kind of went into ESPN has like their retriever or receiver tracking metrics and have the open score. Josh Palmer was the top bill. And he ranked 31st, but he was only on the field 40% of the snaps. The like main guys, Khalil Shakir. was 73rd, Kean Coleman was 68th, and there are some issues with open score. You know, we don't really know where these guys are supposed to be.

And like you have a guy's like Ad. Mitchell, like on the Jets who tracks really well in the open score, whether he's where he's supposed to be when he is open. Like that's kind of the questions you can have with that type of metric. But the fact that just no one was really getting open on their own really hindered what this offense could potentially do. And I think that kind of can lead us into DJ more, the acquisition, which, I didn't really understand the trade value. I don't also understand the contract that they gave him.

But I think he objectively makes this offense better and kind of opens up what they can potentially do this coming season. It's a great number to point out. And it's a crime, frankly, that the most effective, efficient, dangerous play in football of the last half decade plus is a Josh Allen run. And yet he is facing. seeing like that much man coverage and that it's that ineffective. And yeah, some of the numbers,

I went through and read all your chapters, of course, before this were not great for the receivers. Even Khalil Shakir, it was starting to be a little diminishing returns in terms of what he was doing after the catch and how open he is. And that might just be because of his surroundings. He does not profile as a number one guy. And it's going to help out to have a little more help. But look, Joe Brady wanted to do a ball control offense. And you guys pointed out, too, that I thought your number you might have picked was I think they had the slowest paced offense since 2007 and it worked pretty well for them but I also don't love like this let's just possess the ball as long as we can when Josh Allen is your quarterback.

Yeah, that's definitely the thing that it's it's the kind of just the disconnect of what they have at quarterback and kind of the team they built around especially when you know the past year and a half or so, the defense, you just weren't really sure what you were getting from it. So the idea to be able to build up that offensive line, which they wanted to do for all of Josh Allen's career, really. Every year, they kept saying, we want to have this run game. And finally, once Joe Brady came in, they were actually able to get it in the past two years. They've really been able to rely on that a little bit. But then you also have Josh Allen. You're kind of hindering some of the things he can do on a play-to-play basis when you are

focusing so hard on that run game. So I think with DJ Moore now, they might just be able to open it up a little more. Everyone else in that offense now just makes a little more sense. I don't think DJ Moore is going to be some incredible individual wide receiver, but just in the way that you're able to now structure the offense around that, I think it's just going to be so much better than it was last year. Schedule is probably going to get harder for the bills this year. But overall, the DVOA projections have them as the fourth overall team, third on offense, eighth on defense, which is pretty optimistic for that defense. And yeah, it's something we'll probably talk about in their full team preview. But I couldn't help but notice if you really look at the

numbers, at least according to the numbers you guys have, the bills are almost unquestionably the greatest team of all time to never, you know, the greatest team of all time to not reach the Super Bowl. Because if you look at five year, you know, runs of them being good, it's really their last three years. And you could argue two of the greatest teams of the, the last 50 years not to make the Super Bowl are this version of the Bills and this version of the Ravens. The other two teams you would throw in there are like the late 70s Rams and then the late 2010's Drew Brees Saints teams that didn't quite get there. But it is crazy that these bills and Ravens teams, it doesn't just feel that way. They really are maybe among the greatest teams of all

time that have never made the Super Bowl. Yeah. And even with New Orleans, like they were there and then they continued to be good and didn't make the Super Bowl for where these, the Ravens and version of the Ravens and this version of Bills, they just haven't been there at all. And that it seems crazy, which we continue to keep saying, like, they're probably do. These teams continue to be good. So we will continue to pump them up. But yeah, it is a historic stretch of being this good and not really getting over the hop. It's crazy. Although Saints fans will push back on you and be like, those Michael Thomas teams were not the same. Those are some of the greatest teams of all time that didn't that didn't make it that that it is crazy that that

i thought those teams are as good or or better than the saints team that won the super bowl all right the Miami dolphins are next they are a team that is not going to be projected to be one of the best teams in a league by literally anyone what is the number you have for them right so i'm gonna it's kind of like an off field number but i think it kind of shapes what the dolphins are this year and 59.6% of their salary cap is dead money this year and i think we got to get carried away with dead money a little bit. And usually individually, it's not as bad as a lot of people try to make it out to be. But this is the highest rate since, easily the highest rate since 2013, have a table in the

chapter. The next highest is the 2013 Oakland Raiders who had 47.1%. So the dolphins right now are almost at 60. So when you just kind of look at what the shape of the dolphins are right now, it's a complete rebuild. And really, this is like a year zero of a rebuild. kind of like a college that we've kind of seen in a way where you're completely just taking this down to the studs and trying to figure out what this offense or what this whole team is going to be.

Yeah, if you were looking for some optimism, Dolphins fans, the projections actually had the dolphins at 26th in DVOA, higher than I think four AFC teams. So it doesn't have you as the very worst. But I am going to be emphasizing this with the number you point out that it's almost 60% of dead cap. it's unprecedented. I mean, as long as anyone's been keeping track of it, it is leaps and bounds higher than any team ever.

And yes, there is a level of dead cap where some teams have been relatively successful, but on the table you guys show, look, the top eight teams in terms of Ted, dead cap percentage of all time, all of losing records. Like the best one among them was a seven and ten falcons team

after they cut Matt Ryan. And even then seven and ten is maybe the upper limits. So it just goes to show. kind of know it, but there have been rebuilds before. This is about as dramatic in terms of the financial penalty that any team has ever had. All right, let's get to a team in the Patriots that I was really curious what the numbers would spit out after, you know, such an improvement last year. Overall, has them third among AFC teams in Super Bowl odds. The AFC is pretty clustered, the top seven rate teams, but they are definitely in that mix, seventh overall in DVOA. So actually not the

Hugest decline overall in terms of the Patriots projections. What's a number that stood out to you for them? All right. So as a patriot, would you rather talk about the offense or the defense to start off? Just because we haven't done it that much, let's go defense. Okay. So the defense is interesting because I think that it really is going to kind of shape what this past this next year could be.

So through week 14, New England Blitz 25.5% of the time. That was 26. And they were 29th in pressure rate. after the buy, that jumped up to a 35% blitz rate, which was ninth, and they were 15th in pressure rate. In the playoffs, a 43.4% blitz rate and a 38.7% pressure rate, those would have ranked second and first, respectively, throughout the regular season. During the playoffs, the Patriots had a better DVOA against the past than the Seahawks did. So this is a defense that, oh, we don't really like to say what happened in like a second half of the year, at the end of the year is going to translate.

But the way the Patriots completely really shifted their defense, really leaned into that blitz, trusted the secondary that they had. It really helped. On top of that, when Milton Williams and Christian Barmore were on the field together, they had a sack rate that would have been equal to first in the league. And that was something that they didn't get as often as they would have liked because both of them kind of missed staggering amounts of time. So when this defense is healthy and the way we're now going to have,

you know, Zach Kerr having this for a full year as the defensive coordinator, I think it's going to be real interesting to see how this defense wants to be structurally and if they are going to kind of lean into that blitz a little bit. Yeah, I really am curious about Zach Corr in what his 2.0 is going to be because if he didn't get the job in strange circumstances, he took over when Terrell Williams had had his health care. And Thorel Williams is back with the staff, but he's going to be an assistant head coach. if he hadn't come, you know, along that way,

and we had known him a little bit before, if he was, like, from some tree, I think everyone would be talking about him as one of the most exciting young defensive minds in the league. Now, there's been a lot of, like, flashy defensive minds as a coach that have, like, a year or two where they pop and then they just kind of take a back seat. So I am, like, really curious,

because talent-wise, it's a pretty good defense. I don't know if it's better or worse. They lost a few players. They brought a few. you in, but I would say it's an average to better than average talent. But if you combine that with a guy who's a bit of a scheme wizard, and he was down the stretch last year, then you have a pretty good unit. Yeah, and I think that's going to be super interesting because I think you have the talent that can allow them to blitz in that way, if they want to stay. Like, no one's going to be the Brian Flores Vikings, but I think like the playoff Patriots were like close. And so I don't think they're going to do that for a full year. But if they lean more into that, that makes them a very interesting defense,

which I think just kind of could give the offense a little more margin for error too. And they're just not that young a defense. Like Brian Flores, I think the familiarity with the system allows you to do more, and they have a lot of veterans who I think they're going to trust to be where they're supposed to be and they'll know the system a little better. What was the offensive number while we're here? I mean, I'm being totally biased that the Patriots get two numbers and every other team gets one. But what the hell?

So the offense, I was just going to point out there explicitly. pass rate with 13.7%, which was the highest in the league that was almost a percentage point and a half above the bills. There were only two other offenses in the past five years that have even gotten to 13%. Those were the 49ers in 2019 and 2023. So I think this is an offense that while working with not, you know, obviously the greatest receiving core had this explosive pass rate that was easily the highest in the league. I think now we'll continue to see that. I don't know if they're going to hit that high again. But with AJ Brown, Romeo Dobbs, I think is another place where everyone just makes more sense in that offense. And I think they'll be able to more in the rhythm of

the offense have some of these explosive plays to keep that going. Yeah, one number you guys had, too, that made me feel better was they were also second in DVOA on short passes, only behind, you know, their old friend Mack Jones and in the 49er. So, you know, they can win in multiple types of ways. They are going to be in a league that is getting increasingly heavy, especially after the injury that they've already had at tight end this offseason with Julian Hill. They were great with three receivers on the field last year. And I think they're going to have three receivers on the field quite a bit just because I think that's where their strength is, is a depth at wide receiver, which is crazy to say about the Patriots,

but they just have five or six guys that they like that they can trust. And they frankly don't have a second tight end anymore. So it's going to be a lot of three receivers. Yeah, I'm a big Eli Raritan fan. I think that could be helpful. I know, but maybe, you know, it's second half of the year a little bit. But yeah, like you said, this could be like a hockey shift at wide receiver and they could completely change out guys and still have enough talent there.

I keep A.J. Brown fresh and things like that. So I think there is a lot to like about the offense, even if some of the, you know, high, the crazy rate of, you know, deep passes completions that we saw last year might not sustain. I think they have a lot to make up for it to kind of stave off some of the regression that they might have otherwise. So I'm reading the Jets profile that you did. And one of the things that is a slight weakness, it's not anything the FDN could do to all the great numbers, because it really goes in depth of who had the best pace

and who was the best with who rushed five the most and six the most. And it really breaks it down in all sorts of different ways. But usually for the worst teams in the league, that section is less valuable because they've always taken out the coaches, but not in the case of Aaron Glenn. I was reading the Aaron Glenn Jets profile and thinking, this sounds like a profile of a team that changed everything, but ultimately they didn't. I know they changed their coordinators out, and Aaron Glenn is going to call plays, but ultimately it's a team that struggled last year. The projection model has them struggling.

They have them ahead of the Browns, but that is the only team that the, that DVOA has ahead of it going into the year. What is the number that stood out to you the most? So the interceptions is what we kind of focused on a lot for this Jets defense and because it was zero. It was the first team to ever do that. But the Jets were just historically bad at forcing turnovers in general. They had the 31st in drives ending with a fumble. They were eight fumbles on defense and recovered only three. One point seven percent of their drives ended in a turnover, which is the lowest we have since 1993. The next lowest is at four. percent. So they're just historically bad at creating turnovers. And obviously that's something we're

going to see regress a little bit. They were able to get their hands on the ball. They had the same number of past deflections as the Patriots did last year. And we kind of expect around 20 percent of passes defense usually end up as interceptions. So even if it's 10 percent this next year, like we're going to see a lot more turnovers happen for this Jets defense, especially with the talent that they also brought in. It's not the sexiest talent. But I think that we're going to see a lot. But I I think they're going to go from pretty bad to maybe competent. And I think that really does change what this Jets defense could possibly be just because they were so insanely historically bad at forcing turnovers last year.

Yeah. And you pointed out, look, it could be eight out of 11 new defensive starters. You know, some of the guys, it's tough to even know what to think. Where did you land? I had such an immediate negative reaction to all the older players that they signed and thought, man, they're playing through the minute. As the offseason's gone along, I've warmed up to it a little bit. I think they're just trying to be respectable this year while they find some young players.

And if they're coached up better, like I can see a path to improvement. Kind of where did you land on just in general what the Jets did on defense? Yeah, I think I'm, I'm okay with it for it's going to help in 2026. I don't know what it's going to mean for 2027. when this is probably going to matter more for the Jets. So I think it's kind of like, it kind of feels like the commanders a couple years ago when they went out and signed all of those aging veterans

just to be competent around Jaden Daniels. And this team doesn't have a Jaden Daniels to do that with either. So I think we're, this defense is again going to look very different in 2027, but it might be okay in 2026. I guess that's fine if they just want to be competent, but in terms of what this team needs to build going forward, I'm not sure it really helps in the long term.

Yeah, and I'm really curious how the whole Aaron Glenn taking over the defense goes. We'll see. All right, so you did the AFC East, but you also did two of the great teams in the NFC North. The Vikings are a fascinating team to me. They have among the highest variance, I think, of any team in the NFL. That's partly because their defense plays crazy, partly because it's a brand new quarterback. What's the number you got for the Vikings? Yeah, so I'm going to stick with the offense here and kind of go with the Kyler Murray and kind of how we are framing him coming into this situation.

So in 2024, which is really the last like full year we had of Kyler, he ran the fifth most plays of under center play action. He was 21st in DVOA on those plays. But overall for the season, he was 12th in passing DVOA at 11.9%. And that was barely under Sam Darnold's 12.4% in 2020. And that was the year he broke out with the Vikings and we all decided he was good again. So there was only a half a percentage point between Kyler and good Sam Darnold. So I think one place is, I think there's a much higher baseline for Kyler coming into this situation than some of these other like Reclamation quarterbacks that we've seen, like Daniel Jones

or even like a Gino when he started. He has a much higher kind of what he's proven already in some of his really good seasons. It hasn't been consistent, but he has that. And I think he still has a little more familiarity with some of the things he's going to be asked to do in this Kevin O'Connell offense with some of the under center play action. And none of the numbers that I had earlier include his running ability, which I think is still going to be a weapon. Even if it's not like the thing he does the most anymore, he still has that ability. And I think that's really going to translate and set a much higher bar than we've kind of seen how we've really talked about Kyler as this. this quarterback who's kind of like one of these reclamation projects.

Yeah, it's a great. It's a great point because there are aspects of the offense he's going to be learning that we're in the cliff offense. Kyler at this point has been in a handful of different offenses in the NFL. Also a great point that, yeah, Kyler's like average season, which, you know, people have had higher expectations for him is basically how the level of play

that Sam Darnold's had for the last couple of seasons and they won a Super Bowl. He got it, you know, slightly different ways. But I totally agree with that. Let's wrap up with the Detroit Lions. Give me one number that helps explain the Lions. And before I ask you for, I did want to just tell the listeners that they, in terms of FTN, projects the Lions as a really good team. Third overall, I believe in the NFC in terms of DVOA behind the Rams and the Seahawks,

one of the only teams last year to be top 10 in offense, defense, and special teams. So they do not project a big decline for this Lions team. Yeah, and I think that's playing with health a little bit. We still don't really know what Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch are going to be. And the projections had a little hard time. I went back and forth with Aaron about that, where I think there's still a little more, I think we're a little higher on the defense than maybe it might be in reality.

But the offense is probably not going to be a problem. But that is where I have this number. So Jamir Gibbs is going to be the guy this year. And he was the lead back, but now he's really going to be the lead back. So on 87 early down carries from 11 personnel last year, Gibbs averaged 6.5 yards per carry, a 47% success rate and 10.8% DVOA. But on 88 carries from 12 personnel, 3.7 yards per carry, a 34% success rate, and negative 23.9% DVOA. And so with Drew Petzing coming in, there's some more tight ends.

He was very tight end heavy in Arizona. I'm just curious of what this offense, especially this run, game is going to look like. I have confidence that they're going to figure it out that Gibbs is a better, you know, heavier personnel runner than he showed last year. I think it's going to be better. But how often they're using 11 personnel. I don't think they're going to use a lot of 13 because you don't want to take James and Williams off the field. But in all of that, I just think it's going to be very interesting how they're constructing this offense. And it might be a little slow to get started, but then I think we'll eventually see them kind of figure out what the best balance is going

to be. Yeah. How good is this offensive line? things that think that's going to be a big thing too. Like it just, when you listed some of those numbers and then there was also some in the profile in the team preview of just like how much they struggled in short yardage and that speaks to the struggles with heavy personnel, just doesn't make sense with the running backs that they have, but they just weren't they weren't the same. And, you know, how much better is Tate Ratlidge going to be? How much better is Christian Mahogany if he wins that job going to be? How good are they in the middle? Like is Penaiseuil, it's a lot of,

Ifs, like to me, offensive line is always very difficult to predict, and they're among the highest variance offensive lines. If they hit, like, closer to the top of the possibilities for their offensive line, they're right there to me with the Rams and the Seahawks as Super Bowl favorites in the NFC. Yeah, I think so too. And I have, even if they are about average, I have confidence that they're going to be able to scheme around that. And so I don't have as much worry about the variance of this offense as I do potentially the defense if that's not fully healthy going forward. It got to be one of the best nine win teams in a while. A lot of your profile is about like the lions were better than you remember last year. It was disappointing, but they weren't

the catastrophe that everyone remembers. Dan, appreciate you. Like I said, previously with the 33rd team, he wrote a lot. Everyone should check out the FTN Almanac and go buy that. And if you're out and you're in a hiring position too. I know, I know, Dan, you're looking for work. And one of the best talkers, writers that have been coming up in the industry, appreciate your work. Thanks for coming on the show. Yeah, thanks so much for having me.

Appreciate it. All right. That was this week of NFL Daily. We will be back. Of course, next week, we're starting to crank up towards daily. We're just about there with the training camp, you know, starting next week for a couple of the teams in the Hall of Fame. and then by the weekend, all the teams will be showing up soon enough.

We will be here on Monday. It'll be myself and Nick Shook talking and previewing all the camp battles from around the league. In the meantime, enjoy your weekend. This is an I-Heart podcast, guaranteed human.