NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Man vs Model Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: September 13, 2024

Gregg and Cynthia Frelund are back for another week of Man vs Model head-to-head pick battle. First, Gregg and Cynthia look back on their week 1 picks (00:45) . Then, our duo give their week 2 picks. Cynthia gives her iron clad first pick (1:25),  Gregg then heads to Tennessee for his first pick (2:24). Next, Cynthia and Gregg find themselves on the same page for their second pick (3:25). And, finally Gregg joins the BirdGang for his third (5:00) and Cynthia takes us to Jerryworld (6:15). NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sundays. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where it's always right. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in Studio 5, stage 5, I don't know what you call it, at NFL Network. And so lucky today to be joined by Cynthia Freeland for our weekly man versus machine, man versus model, the Rainmaker rains show of the week. I like all of it.

Let's review, Cynthia. Last week, if you were listening, we were both very effective, two and one, each of us. Okay, I got the bucks in the Steelers right, barely lost on the bills by like half a point. You got the Saints and your Lions right and you lost on your Jets. And so what we do every week on this show, we pick our three favorite picks of the week. Why don't we start with you this week to feel a little luckier? I have a question. Yes.

This is a really important one. Yes. Are we allowed to do this for totals? Because I think there's one mispriced toy. Okay. You can do anything you want, Cynthia. The point is, I'm rooting for you. I want us both to have good records.

I want to just have a better record than you over. Well, right now we're tied. Yes, we're tied two and one. That's a good start. Yeah, you can do totals. Okay, so I'm looking at this Pittsburgh game, and I understand it doesn't seem like there's going to be a lot of points scored, but any way you slice it for me, it's going to be more than 36 and a half.

In fact, in the model, in the machine, if you will, the number is more than 37 points. In something like 56% of simulations, I'm a conservative modeler. that is a high number for me. So I know it doesn't seem like a situation where you're going to be like, hey, Broncos, Steelers, Point Fest, but you don't need it to be that much in order to hit that number. Yes.

I actually picked 18 to 12 in that game. And in my head, that was all field goals. Six for the Steelers and four for the Broncos. There could easily be a defensive touchdown. You could throw that in, but that makes sense. And why would you root against fun? I'm not rooting against it. That's just what I see.

I'm on the Steelers this year. I had them as an under... That is not one of my three picks. But I do think they're going to win. Lots of points. It is not. Lots of points. 36 and a half.

Your first pick over 36 and a half in Steelers, Falcons. I like that. I'm going to go Titans plus four to start. If I'm going to pick them straight up, which I am doing, we did that on our show on NFL Network, which people should check out. That's up on Sunday mornings before game day morning. I might as well take them plus four. It's as if one never.

happened here? At least, I think that's what this number looks like to me. What I saw from week one in the Titans, and tell me if you disagree, Cynthia, was a reborn running game. The two Callahan's, like they show up and suddenly there's cohesion. The offensive line looks good, run blocking. Tony Pollard has a ton of room, and he's got a ton of juice. And I also saw a soft as hell Jets run defense. So at the very least, I think they keep it within four, and they keep a low score, and it's a lot of ground. game with Tajay Spears also in the mix. I think they can just win it straight up. So if you're into going with the money line, that would be fun too. But for the sake of this show, Titans

Plus 4. Okay, well, I think there's a completely mispriced line in Arizona. The Rams are not favored. The Rams are underdogs. That makes absolutely zero sense to me. There is no way. And so if I believe they're going to win straight up, why would I not believe that they're going to win if you're going to give me an extra point? Why not? Right. So I think that the Rams, look, I understand that there are a lot of question marks in terms of injuries. The O line has just been pretty decimated. But tell me who on that Cardinals team is going to get after a guy like Matthew Stafford who can disproportionately handle pressure, like to the point where, you know, Matthew, I watched him in Detroit. He didn't have an O line there either. They were standing there. So, you know,

ultimately, I think this is something he's been like a finely tuned machine like me, like I'm a finally tuned, whatever, to be able to handle this kind of thing. And they can run with Karen Williams. They always run against this Cardinals team. Go look at that number. And Cooper Cup, he's going to catch like a billion passes. I love that. I pick them as well. They're not one of my picks. But yeah, they're not one of your picks. I mean, they're on my long list. Good. That's fine, because that means I get to have. Yeah, I like that we don't have all the same picks. They're dangerous. Oh, wait, they are one of my three picks. I'm going to go off. I totally forgot. Good. Good. Give people more. But I get like the arguments against them because their defense,

if they have a weakness, it's against the ground game. It's Kyler Murray. It's James Connor. It's Trey Benson actually got in the mix, but it matters to me that last year the two games were not competitive at all. The Rams won these two by 40s, so it's a division matchup where there's some familiarity there. I take it back. I actually will take the Rams as one of my picks. I'm going to go for my third pick, Eagles minus six and a half. Can Kirk Cousins play football still, like, at a high level? Can he move?

Well, do you really want to ask that question against the Philadelphia defense? Because that's not even just, like, any old defense. That's a heck of a tough defense to make him. Like, he didn't look, I mean, none of the Steelers is an awesome defense as well. But, like, it didn't, it was very different. The pistol, what was that? No play action? What was that?

I'm not sure what was going on there. Maybe a totally different game plan. It's crazy to me that it would actually make sense to play Michael Pennix. I think early this season and wait until Kirk is healthy because he just showed he wasn't healthy. So when we're doing these picks, I'm mostly looking at the number

kind of like you and just seeing if it's like a little bit off. But I do think early in the season before we really know who's good, who's bad. You can get some funky numbers. And this is actually a high number, and yet I'm just trusting my eyes and saying you can't overreact to what happened with Kirk Cousins in week one

and that they're going to have to show me that they have an offense and a quarterback that's actually functional. At this point, I don't really believe it. And I don't think their defense is very good either. So give me Eagles minus six and a half. Okay, so I'm staying with that same number, six and a half, and I'm going with a little bit of spice here because I think New Orleans keeps it closer than people expect.

So I think New Orleans plus six and a half, it's not straight. I don't have New Orleans winning straight up. I do think that the Cowboys are the winner of this matchup. But I think six and a half is too high. I know that the Cowboys are playing at home, so that number is influenced by that. I did see what happened with both sides. However, we didn't really learn anything about a Mike Zimmer defense because they held the Browns to 54 total yards in the first half. So kind of the second half data, totally skewed.

And then on the same side, we didn't really learn anything about the Saints' offense either because they were. Oh, come on. They put up 47. But that's my point. We don't know what they're going to do when they're under duress because they're going to be under duress. Three pressures. That's all of the number of pressures that Derek Carr faced. Micah Parsons is good for three pressures on his own, let alone.

So my point is, we saw that it's a good. offense when the defense was giving them a lot of favorable looks, but we don't know what's happened. It's a remade O.C., a remade situation here. So we don't, I'm not saying they're not good. I'm saying we just don't know who they are yet. We don't know. That's why I love the six points. I'm with you. That was, I was debating coming into the studio, do I go Eagles minus six and half or do I go Saints plus six as my third picks? Do you want to know something really funny? Yes. I actually had the same debate. And then you took it and I was like, fine, I'll go with because, okay, when you're thinking about these games early in the season, you're right, we don't know

lot about the Saints. We don't know a lot about the, to just take points. Because here's what I feel like I do know about the Saints offense. They're better than a year ago. Because at no point last year did their running game ever open up holes like that. They played the Panthers twice last year. I know the Panthers' defense might be worse last year, but they played some of the worst defense in the league last year. They never did that. They never scored nine straight times. They never protected Derek Carr that well. They are going to be better this year. And the Cowboys, that was a very strange game too in the second half. They only have like 50 yards of offense. Like, that half counts, too, when I look at their evaluation. I know they were playing

against the Browns. So that gives me some concern. And maybe the Browns are just a total mess on offense. And so I look at this game and I'm just thinking it's relatively low scoring and it's going to be a close game. And so give me the six points. Yeah, I'm with you on all of that, except I do want to point out the NFL robbed us of some. Actually, it would actually be a John Fossil that robbed us of something. I think Brandon Aubrey could have made that 71 yarder. And I'm mad that we didn't get to see him trying. So if it ever happens again, just like let us see it because it's fun and exciting. It's a reason to love the NFL, a 71-year-old.

He could have made it. It's wildly conservative not to, like, attempt that kick? Why not? Because you're so afraid of a kickoff return happening? It's not going to happen. Dynamic. It's dynamic. That means that you don't know what's going to happen.

So let's review our picks. In the end, we are both on Rams winning this week. Your daughter would like that. Absolutely. Alice will be into the show this week. I don't want to get her into making picks, though, this is early in her life. Eagles minus. She's allowed to pick. Just like us. We are allowed to pick. Yeah, with the NFL policy against it, has us just making picks. But you can follow us on this show every week.

Again, it's going to be Eagles minus six and a half for me, the Rams, and the Titans plus four. You are taking the Steelers, the Steelers Broncos over. And then what were your other two? And then same with you on the Rams. And then I'm taking the Cowboys to win, but not to win by more than six points. Okay. So I'm going to do a thing on this show. each week. You can take or you can leave. You can tell me what you think. Last week on this very show, I gave you a few more picks. I gave the listeners like, here are the ones that just mix. And then I made a square around them on this note card that I have. And you know how those

picks did last week? They went four and oh. So I would have been six and one if you, if you were tracking my picks last week. I had the Saints, the Colts, the Chargers. I can write something in a box that happened last week too right now and claim this. So this week, the ones that just miss, it was also your Saints. I agree. with you there. I kind of like the Falcons and the Bucks, both getting points as underdogs. The Vikings are at home. The bucks are on the road, but it's a lot of points to give the Vikings five at home and the bucks seven and a half. And then, like I mentioned, I like the Steelers. And I kind of like the Jaguars this week against a Brown's team. I don't think it's going to be very good.

But those aren't the, those aren't my favorites. You're so generous. Why? Well, then we'll put, then we'll add in my spice here, too. Just my one spot. It's a player one. Okay. I mean, it kind of breaks the rules, but you broke the rules. So I'm also going to break the rules. I think Brock Bauer scores his first touchdown this weekend. Ooh, that's a good one. Listen, they're going to be playing from behind. They're going to need to throw the ball. I think that the Ravens have shown that if you don't know,

Devont Adams, who are you going to cover? Jacoby Myers, who are you going to cover? So I think Brock Bowers, who ran nine routes, nine different routes last week. That means they trust him. And he was on the field for, he ran 26 total routes. So if you're looking at who they might trust and who could be a, I just think it's a good pick.

I'm his fantasy owner. Talk to me. And they gave up a lot over the middle of the field. last week. I'm just saying. I think that yards after the catch, they're watching that film. Zachor, beware.

Brock Bowers is coming for you. Because there weren't like a lot of rookies that had monster games, there was a lot of kind of Brock Bowers type games, like 558. That's an awesome rookie tight end game. He looked like exactly like he looked in college. So I'm very excited as someone who drafted him

in my fantasy team, and I helped my daughter draft her fantasy team and she got it. Wait, so she can play fantasy, but you can't pick a game. She could play fantasy. Play a little fantasy. one early last year by taking almost all Rams.

Those are our picks for this week. I'm excited to do this each and every week. We're both two and one, so we're on the plus side. I'm feeling good about it. That's all for this week's NFL daily.

Of course, we will be back on Sunday night for the recap show in the meantime. So glad that football is back. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky, Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and

NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant And I'm Michael Florio And together we host the NFL fantasy football podcast

Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast Your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents Listen to the NFL fantasy football podcast On the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.