NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - NFL Around the League: AFC West - August 21st, 2013

Episode Date: August 21, 2013

Gregg Rosenthal, Dan Hanzus, Marc Sessler and Chris Wesseling talk fantasy football, the latest NFL headlines and preview the AFC West. Will Wesseling lose his Oakland Raiders bet and eat his softball pants? Tell us your thoughts on Twitter @NFL_ATL or #NFLATL.Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comNFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

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Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. The Around the League podcast has no prior head coaching experience. Welcome back to another edition of the Around the League podcast. name is Dan Hansis. I'm joined by Heroes. Chris Wessling, Mark Sessler, Greg Rosenthal. Hey, guys. We're not a roomful anymore? Well, no, I'm just shortening it a little bit for this one. Oh, okay. Or you just kind of stumbled over it? Nah, I thought it was pretty good. It was smooth, but

uh... Hey, I'll say, um, by the way, it smells awesome in here. Chris Wessling, who has the best off days of anyone. Uh, what is that scent? Is that a perfume? That is a Kruger brand, Kruger brand 30 proof. Sunblock. Ooh. Yeah. I actually, I thought it was one of those Russian women you play with a shuffleboard with that maybe her perfume had rubbed off on the polo. Julia?

Oh, is that, it's a real person. There is a, there is a arena there. Wesleyan is fresh off the boat from Georgia. Doesn't know a lot of people here in L.A. I give him a terrible schedule where he's working all weekend, so he has Tuesday and Wednesday off. So he spends these days just lounging by the pool and watching copious amounts of film and drinking copious amounts of beer.

and reading some good books, which sounds pretty awesome. I would say I'm wildly jealous of the guy's lifestyle in general. It's a fairly accurate description. He's tanned and relaxed. He smells great. He has great calves because he's wearing shorts right now. Everything seems to be turning up aces for the old Westman. I want to know what you learned from all the film watching anything stand out.

Well, I tweeted about this yesterday, Bryce Butler. Seventh rounder from the Raiders. To me, this is like what preseason is all about. you get a guy who comes into camp with the third string offense makes plays in the first preseason game by the second preseason game he's starting in practice and playing with the first string offense catching passes with Matt Flynn

we see all these guys who are rookies and get pub and still are running as a fourth or fifth receivers this guy might have a chance to be the first or second receiver for the Raiders you know you could listen to Dave Damashek's podcast for the next four years you're not going to hear about Bryce Butler that is why you come to the around week podcast To squeeze in a shot on Damashek somehow. Why now?

We're what, a minute and a half into the show? He's not taking shots at us. That Raiders' wide receiver situation is weird, too. We don't know. I mean, he really might start, right? He's got a chance. Jacobi Ford said he could be the number one receiver for the Raiders. All right, guys.

So we have a full show today. We're going to have our AFC West preview as we wrap up that conference. We're going to do a little hard knocks talk of the episode last night. But we'll start with some news. and in honor of NFL.com's fantasy draft week, which you could find out more about at NFL.com backslash fantasy draft week. Love the plug. Pretty good plug there.

Hope the bosses were listening to that. We're going to give some news that has a little bit of a fantasy spin. So we'll send it over to Greg Rosenthal, the boss, to give us a little breakdown of the news. It's really a fantasy-tinged episode. Maybe our fantasy preview, I guess. We're going to give one big piece of advice later in the show each on what you should do for your fantasy drafts. But for the news this week, let's start with Michael Vick, which is, you know, we know now he's officially the starter. My question is, what are the expectations for him as a starting quarterback this year?

It goes so many directions. I could see him hurt after three weeks. I could see him have a short leash and see falls in there by week four. or I could see him have that 2010-type season. I mean, he certainly has that drive. He looks good. He came in camp in shape, and he has something to prove. If this offense is as good as people think it can be

and catches people off guard, I feel like the sky's the limit for this guy. Yeah, I think the thing that's encouraging out of Philadelphia is Kelly basically saying, he's my starter, and I'm sticking with this guy. Where a year ago, Andy Reid was in trouble early, and you got a sense that Andy Reid was going to lose his job, and he started cycling through quarterbacks, and Vic got hurt.

It was about as bad a year as it could be for Vic. I really think, obviously, that a whole team's energized, and Vic is like suddenly five years younger, he looks to me on the field. So we'll see. Again, can he stay healthy? Well, that would be the big question. I think the offensive line is much improved this year. They're all healthy.

So that helps. I think for the first time in, what, a 12-year NFL career, he finally has an offense that's suited to his strengths as a player. So that's promising. We always seen him in fantasy. Jim Mora didn't do it for you? Jim Mora had like the exact opposite offense. She should be running for Vick.

I guess for fantasy purposes, we know we've seen him finish, take owners to the fantasy title two or three years ago. We know he has that kind of upside. I guess that's tempered a little bit for me by the loss of Macklin. I thought two or three years ago he had the best weapons in the league. They had so much speed with Jackson, Macklin, and McCoy. and if you take Macklin out and replace him with Riley Cooper, that upside isn't quite as good for me?

Who's Riley Cooper? I'm buying Michael Vic because of what you said about the offensive line could be such a weapon for them. And he's the perfect type of guy. I didn't have many strategies in fantasy football, but my main one was guys that are really talented that are coming at discount prices.

He's already shown he can be a dominant type of player, and he's going to be, you could probably take him pretty late, and he has the upside of a top couple guy and I'm excited about watching this offense I'm buying into the entire Chip Kelly experience and look at the defenses in that division none of those secondary scare me at all I think those are going to be a lot of high-scoring games

in the NFC East. I will say this about Vic and fantasy leagues there's going to be one guy in your league that's either an Eagles fan or is reading a little too much into the hype of Kelly's offense that will probably reach and grab him probably two rounds before he should go So you might have to act aggressively.

That would be my guess on that. There's so many younger, cooler, like, versions of Michael Vick now, though, that people will take first. Right. The whole quarterback position where if you had to grab one of those five or six guys a year ago, it's like you've got, you can go another round and still get someone of value now. What else is in the news, Greg? Levyon Bell, we learned today is going to miss some time in the regular season. He's got a Liz Frank injury.

Ian Rappaport reported for us. It sounds like he's going to miss, most likely the first month of the season. They were really counting on him to be a big factor for them, be their starter. They had so many problems in the running game. You know, what do we think about this Steelers running game now? I think it's Wes said it so well when Bell was going to play that first preseason game and he didn't, that it robbed the fans of a chance to watch this young back. And really what would have been one of the first featured backs for the Steelers in a long time,

we're going to keep waiting. And, you know, Steelers do a good job of overcoming injuries a lot of times. Every year they seem to have someone sideline, but it's a big loss for them. We've heard this narrative out of Pittsburgh for a couple of years now since they ran off Aryans that Tomlin and the Roonies want to get back. The smash-mall of football. Sheck touched on it in the last week's podcast. They want to pound the ball.

I can't do the Pittsburgh or the Yenzer accent like Sheck. But, yeah, they want to pound the ball. And it turns out they basically have the same, you know, running back by committee that they're going to have as last year, except you throw in Stevens Howling, who isn't in every down type by any means. So it's a patchwork committee again. I'd just like to say that I did the ATL post about the update that he has a LISFranc injury. I did not provide an uppercase for LISFranck, and then our senior news editor, Justin Hathaway, emailed me to say that it was actually a human being, this LISFranc character.

And then, as it turns out, he was a pioneering, this is Wikipedia, pioneering French surgeon and gynecologist. I did not see that coming. The injury came from soldiers... I mean, that's two pretty different things right there. Yeah, no. The injury came from soldiers falling off their horses

and getting their foot stuck in the stirrup, and that would break their foot right in the middle of it, and that's how you got a mid-foot sprain or fracture. Laying by the pool. Yeah, this is what happens when you've got roughly 17 or 18 hours to read a week. Case of beer, pool, research. Dan's reading off Wikipedia. Wesley's got it all upstairs.

He just knows about Liz Sprague. He's got a little cliff-clavin in me. It's the mailman days. That's right. One of Wesleyan's favorites this year is Jermichael Finley, the Green Bay Packers tight-end. Mike McCarthy quoted this week saying it's his best training camp he's ever had, clear-cut. He's blocking now. He's catching.

Are we buying the Jermichael Finley hype? This goes back to the last six or seven games of last year. He had played much better than people. realized he did. He got over his mid-season shoulder injury and I believe set a new career high for yardage last year even though he missed a game or two and was playing hurt. He's a better

player than people realize. They don't have Greg Jennings there anymore. They're going to need Finley to run more of the middle of the field and I think Eddie Lacey opens things up a little bit too. I just see everything, you know you hear the offensive coordinator talking about he finally knows how to run routes. To me that's a tangible

thing, not hype. If he finally knows the offense, he's putting in a time. He's matured. He's in a contract year. I'm buying in on your Michael Finley. I go with you on the Lacey Factor, too. I watched that Rams game, and I, West and I were talking about this before, that the fact that, like, defenses actually have to respect to some level to play action in Green Bay versus a year ago when it was a complete joke, it opened up that part of the field where Finley was just so dangerous. And he had, what, three catches, a ton of yards in that game against the Rams? Four for 78? Did a nice job. And I just, I think that's the kind of games

we could see from them consistently. Hansus is shaking his head vigorously over here. You know what, and I respect... Here comes a 2009 reference. No, I respect everyone in this room, their opinions, except for Sesslers. I will say this, that the one thing I know about Finley is that he's consistently inconsistent,

and I understand that he has all the tools there, but I've seen enough from him to think to myself. I don't see him ever becoming a star player. He's going to have his moments. He's in an awesome offense. the offense that could be more dynamic with their better running game now. But he drops the ball. He's going to have drops.

He's going to go in a dog house. I just don't think he's going to be the guy. And if you want to spin it back to fantasy, I think he's a great late-round flyer if you can get him in the 10th round or something. But I would not bet your house on Finley becoming a Jimmy Graham-type player. Well, you have to also consider the uncertainty at the tight-end position this year. There's only, what, two or three tight-ins that you would feel comfortable? Yeah.

You'd only feel comfortable about Witton Graham and. And Gonzales, maybe? I'm liking Finley. The one thing I can tell you about him is that he's tall. I mean, the last television spot I ever did was one of, for an NBC sports network was one of the more emasculating moments of my life interviewing Jermichael Finley outside in the freezing cold in Indianapolis. He showed up late, so we had to do it live. And I not only had to stand on a box, it was a pretty big box.

And that was a first for me. And that just sort of let me know. where I was. But if you somehow found that tape on the internet or whatever, me and Jermichael, eye to eye, right there. You look daunting on that close-up shot. Yeah, it was a little scary. All right, anything else, Greg?

Aaron Foster's back on the practice field. We don't know how extensive it is, so we don't know how important, but he is off. The Pupplest, we talked about him the other day. Also, Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas, your boy, Miller, Wesleying over there, is struggling to get a

hold of this starting running back job. splitting reps in Miami. Yeah, he seems like he's just not playing with confidence. I think the coaches know he's a better talent. That's what they talked about all offseason. They want to give him the job. It seems to me like this is one of those motivational ploys. He has to earn it, and he hasn't earned it yet.

To me, the talent will win out in the end. I wouldn't worry about too much of Daniel Thomas. We've seen what he is as an NFL back. He's a bit on the plotting side. He fumbles a lot. He hasn't really converted in short yardage like. they like. So I think this is going to be Lamar Miller's job

but for fantasy purposes I guess I would advise don't expect him to be reliable in September. He's one of those guys at the height maybe inflated him too much now to the point where he's not really a sleeper anymore he's just a guy that's going early

because everyone like Wesleyan's been talking him up all off season. How could he be battling with confidence if he was a making the leap candidate for around the league? It seems to have taken it. You would think he would be just filled it'd be pouring out of it could it be because one making the leap candidate after the next has been felled by injury or like we saw our misfortune we don't talk about that here that's not true at all that's not true it's taking up steam between 40 guys you know some are going to get

suspended some are going to get arrested whatever we need that brady bunch hawaii episode uh background noise the curse thing whenever we talk about making the leap we'll let's find that on youtube do do do do um okay so mark sessler and i are are mere mortals when it comes to fantasy sports. We both play. We co-own a team in NFL. It's called Allison Brie. If she finds out about it, probably a restraining order is in line. But the two gentlemen, the other gentleman in the room, Greg Rosenthal, former editor-in-chief and overall czar over at Roto World for like eight years. That's two presidential terms. And then Wes was, were you like a consigliary type character? Yeah, you could say that. Okay. So you guys are experts. So, you know,

Take what Mark and I say with a grain of salt, but listen very closely to Rosenthal and Wessling as we give, each of us give our advice for the fantasy drafts coming up. I hate that word expert. That's my point of advice is the experts, please. You absolutely love it. The experts don't know what they're talking about. That's my piece of advice is don't pay that close of attention to the fantasy rankings. You can use them to give you some information on who's draftable and all that. But after a while, there becomes a logic, like, this guy's a second round pick, this guy's a fifth round pick.

Don't take him to it. It doesn't, none of it means anything. It doesn't mean anything, and no one could possibly predict how crazy the season is going to be. If you lined up what the end of the season rankings are for everyone, and you made that your preseason ranking somehow, people would say you were nuts. I mean, I was talking to a friend the other night, and he had the number two pick, and he was saying, oh, I like these guys. I kind of like McCoy, though. Is that that crazy to take McQuire? I was like, why wouldn't you take LeShaun Mc?

Just take him. I mean, oh, but he's supposed to be the fifth or sixth pit. No one knows anything. I mean, give me a break. Am I right? You leaving the industry and then torching it. Carosine and then a match. When I was at Roderwood, I told people the exact same thing as Greg.

There's no right answer. This isn't scientific. Go with your gut. If you like a guy, take him. Information is great. Learning more about all the players and the situation. all good knowing all the players that's important that's where fantasy you know analysts everyone can help you out but they'll just be sort of a logic that sets in and none of it makes any sense

like oh you can't take if Colin if you like Colin Kaepernick make them your top quarterback make them the number one quarterback on your take them in the first round if you want it doesn't matter he could be the number one quarterback why not crazier things happen every every year quarterback in the first round not necessarily but if i'm feeling it and that's who i want sure Yeah, don't let the experts say. That's what the experts say. So you're saying that's the type of stuff not to listen to that. No, the experts always have this, take this position in this.

Don't worry about any of that position stuff. Just take the best player on your board. Shouldn't you build a team off of players that you don't hate number one, that you don't want to see succeed? Absolutely. That's what I never liked about fantasy football was like, why am I rooting for Heinz Ward to score a three-yard touchdown and knock the Browns out of this game? Well, along with that advice is I did take a peek, a peek at the average. average draft position this year just to see what's going on. And it was crazy that Stephen Jackson and Reggie Bush were in the top 20 or 25.

I was like, is this 2006? What is going on? That somehow has become a logical thing, and that's not logical. So that's my point. I'm done. Wes, what do you got? I'm out. Yeah, that was powerful.

You guys want to hear a bit of a rant? Yeah. It's just kind of piggybacking over Greg's point. It's getting agro in here. You guys are like industry men who are on four, like, beer number four. This is like Don Draper when he kind of goes off

and destroys his own agency every other season. Spoiler alert. I hate the term expert too. All these guys from all of the different websites who write about fancy

they all stand in line behind each other and become this big click and everybody's afraid to stand out. Everybody has to agree on where you should take a player and to me it defeats

the whole purpose of the game. Along those lines you know like Greg was saying you have to take this guy in the first round. Guys would ask, who should I Take it number three overall.

Do you want me to whine and dine your wife for you, too? Kiss her at the end of the night for you? Make up your own mind. This is your team. Don't answer that question. I'd like to see that. All right, so really? Oh, you're still going.

Sorry about that. That didn't want to cut you off. That was my rant, but my piece of advice is, okay, with all of this information handy, we've got Twitter, we've got sites like Roto World. NFL.com has a one-hour fantasy show every day. Information, everybody has it now. You're not getting a sleeper. To me, the sleeper is dead.

You go for guys, take advantage of recency bias, which is Ryan Matthews was seventh in fantasy points in 2011, but because he played through two collarbone injuries last year, everybody assumes he's an injury-prone guy who will always disappoint you. Matthew Stafford a few years ago had missed 18 of 32 games. Everybody called him a China doll. Then he throws for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns the next year, and all of a sudden he's cured. This is recency bias. Take advantage of it. there are so many bargains out there like Greg said

who you want are the really talented guys who everybody has written off and decided they're no good anymore to me a guy like Ryan Matthews falls in there and if you look at his injuries they're kind of like what you see isn't their factor people forget that we don't see college injuries so Adrian Peterson it's kind of similar injuries to Ryan Matthews because they happened in college

they're not on fantasy owners' minds and the way I saw Ryan Matthews run the other night To me, he looks like 2011 Ryan Matthews. Wesleyan dropping knowledge. Wow, that's pretty good. Hey, I could jump in and give mine, but I'm going to throw it to Sessler. She always want to be the guy that follows the guy that failed, not the legend. You know, by the way, so Dan and I are heading into year three of co-owning a team.

Yeah. And the last two nights of the draft, Dan has been, the first time he was flat out just on vacation and unavailable. last year he was like in New York partly available and when I needed him to step away and needed him to make a pick he missed it and we got auto-drafted Ridley who was our best player

there's a lesson in that summer maybe people just turn the volume down for the next year I would like to invite you to be part of the process this year Dan but I'm going to give you two guys a riser who and a bust listen if you're out there and you're a complete novice, this will be of use to you. But I love Shane Vareen on the Patriots.

Mark's points come with a lot of hand language rather than. No, it's like, you can't see it. I'm not, you know, I have enough going on. Fantasy football is not my top priority, but I like Shane Verene on the Patriots. For the reason that we talked about, Aaron Hernandez cannot be completely replaced, but this is one guy that's going to take some of that action. And I don't think he's a, he's maybe a flex guy. Plug him in that way.

They're going to use them as a runner as a pass catch. And I think that Belichick's saying, listen, Vareen, we're going to give you a big chance. It's up to you to make a click. And he's done really well early on in the preseason. So that's my guy to cling on to potentially. He's a flex guy. My bust potential is Monty Ball, not feeling it. And that may be, that's presumptuous right now.

But I think, number one, that's cooked right into a complete. We're going to use Hillman. We're going to use Ball. Neither one of these guys for a while is going to take over in the run game. I'd stay away from him. And that's some hardcore fantasy advice right there. That was pretty good, actually. It reminds me of what we talked about a month or two ago on the podcast.

We're just slotting those rookies in that they're going to be fine. Well, suddenly Bell is out a month. Ball is struggling to get the starting job. Arthur Brown and Matt Elam aren't even starting in Baltimore. It usually doesn't go as well as you expect it to go. Real quick for me, I would just say draft as many cults as possible. I think that offense is going to be dynamic. I like that.

I think luck, by the way, and I don't want to – This is a bit of a teaser, but later in the month, our blog is going to have some MVP picks, but I think luck is going to be amazing this year. I love Reggie Wayne. I love T.Y. Hilton. I even like Kobe Fleener, like Ahmad Bradshaw potentially. I even like D.HB. a little bit. Darius Hayward Bay.

No, Dwayne Allen, making the leap. Oh, sorry. Dwayne Allen. Even love Dwayne Lowean. So give the cults a good look on your board. Two making the leap candidates there. T.Y. Hilton was on a mix. I don't have a prepared statement of any kind, but Greg made a point the other day on our record predictions and I feel like

I may have sold the Colts a little short Wow I've already backtracking No you made an excellent point If we believe Andrew Luck Is going to be one of these quarterbacks Who can carry his team Why wouldn't I predict them to be a better than 8 and 18

I think that's a good point All right so that is That is our fantasy segment for the For the show I thought that went pretty well We might have to bring that back sometime We'll let us know what you think Hashtag

Crystal, how did that sound, by the way? That sounded amazing, except you forgot hashtag NFL ATL. Oh, wow. Right. Okay. Well, it's very hard to please, Crystal, I've found in my life so far. But we're always trying. We're always trying.

We're going to go on now. We have the AFC West preview. We've done all three, the other three AFC divisions. We're going to wrap up the West. We're going to move on to the NFC on Friday. But let's start. One question, each of us, and then we'll break it down. The boss, Greg.

Rosenthal? Broncos. All right. Vaughn Miller was suspended the first six games of the season. My question is does that really have a big impact on the Broncos this year? Long term.

I thought Von Miller was the second best defensive player in the NFL last year behind JJ Watt. Having said that, it sounds so incongruous to follow up with. It doesn't matter. That division's so weak and the Broncos are so much better than the rest of the division. even if they get out to a 500 record over the first seven or eight games,

they're going to tear through the rest of the second half of the season. I agree with that. I think that defense is not going to be as dynamic as it could be. But listen, this is Peyton Manning's swan song, potentially. They've built the whole team for a Super Bowl surge. They've had a tremendously rough offseason. But I think you're right. They get out of that first stretch three and three, four and three or so,

and then they roll from there. That's what they did last year. Well, let's look at the schedule over those six games that he's missing. You have opening home against the Ravens, tough game. At the Giants is tough. Home to Raiders, they're going to take care of business there. Home against the Eagles, I think they're fine there. And then you have at Cowboys, do we think that they can't beat Dallas on the road without Von Miller?

And then home against the Jaguars. They should easily have three wins there and maybe four. And if they get out, as long as they get out with three or four wins, who cares? It's fine. I worry about giving wins and losses, but Jaguars and Raiders at home. That's the two easiest games that you could possibly come up with. I mean, I think the case against Denver is Von Miller, when he comes back, isn't quite Von Miller. I mean, everyone in football kind of glosses over the PEDs or substance abuse policy,

you know, when you're missing six weeks, that you're just going to come back and be the same guy right away. You know, you don't know that he's going to be able to back up that season, and then you worry about their defensive line. They lost Dumerville. Champ Bailey's getting up there in years. he's not 100% he might not be ready for week one either some change at linebacker

right Derek Wolf's hurt so I think the case against them is that their defense would really have a big decline ultimately though I don't think I think they still have a great chance to get a buy in the AFC I do I could see it costing them maybe one or two wins in the big picture but that's still probably to me puts them at 11 or 12 so I think

the Broncos are going to survive this and in the AFC I don't see you know three teams with 11 or 12 wins this season that's a thing it's really less about maybe the other teams in their division and they're competing with the other teams in the afc for that one and two seed okay so i'll jump in next with the chiefs they're maybe the biggest buzz team in this division you know a lot of people i was in this building last year there were a lot of people that were excited both uh here at nflm media and across the media and fans that were thinking that last year the chiefs were going to be a team that could be a playoff team they ended up going up in flames huge dumpster fire what they go, two and 14. Now you got Andy Reed in a coach, you have Alex Smith in a quarterback. I know Romeo

Cornell is a huge upgrade from Cornell and Smith is a big upgrade from Castle, but are we supposed to buy in automatically that this team is a playoff team? I'm not sure I'm in. I can't buy that. I don't see the talent on offense. If Jamal Charles

gets hurt, that's a bottom of the barrel offense. Jamal Charles is going to be their Joker from everything we read. They're going to use him for mismatches, out wide in the slot, everywhere. He's a chess piece for Andy Reid. If he goes down, I mean, Donnie Avery couldn't separate from Jonathan Baldwin before they gave up on Baldwin.

Now we're supposed to buy that he's a number two receiver. McCluster, every coach who comes in there, every offensive coordinator talks about how he's got all these plans for McCluster. He never does anything. Dwayne Bow's good, but from what I saw on film watching yesterday, Alex Smith threw every pass in the middle of the field. He's not throwing outside the numbers to Dwayne Bow. Everything's going to running backs and tight ends.

I don't see this offense really as... And the defense is average, too, I guess, but I don't see this team making the playoffs. Have you given up on Andy Reed as a difference maker? Yes, I have. Really? I don't know if I can agree with the Andy Reid knock there because I look at Reed and Alex Smith.

And logically, West, what you're saying is true. it's hard to project this as a team with a winning record necessarily but these two seem to be and this is what football is about sometimes these guys seem to be driven to prove their detractors wrong and I think that yeah they're not the most dynamic offense in football

but they play in a division where with the Chargers and Raiders alone they can pick up wins they wouldn't in another division and I wouldn't have a huge problem with them going eight and eight or better I think the issue I have also is with Alex Smith and the benefit of the doubt that he now gets, that his career is now turned around

and he's going to be the Alex Smith that he was the previous two years in San Francisco. Harbaugh, I think, Jim Harbaugh had a huge role in turning him back into a quality player. And more importantly, he protected him in terms of the plays they called and the throws he made. I don't think Alex Smith is going to win games

single-handedly. I saw him maybe do it once in that playoff game against the Saints, but in general, I think he's a game manager, potentially a good game manager. But I don't buy in to as being the savior in Kansas City. I shared Dan's concerns about Smith, but I feel like we're selling Andy Reid short.

A couple years ago, we were talking about him as the best coach or one of the best coaches in the NFL along with Bill Belichick. And I'm buying into the revived Andy Reid in a new city, making a difference for them as an offense in general. And whenever I'm looking for surprise teams, I look to the schedule. And it's tough. It's tough to predict who has an easy schedule,

but that division has some easy wins like Mark mentioned and they play the AFC South out of division and I think that's a pretty another easy division so I think there's room for either the Chiefs or the Chargers to be a surprise team and because of Reed I like the Chiefs. I have two follow-up thoughts on Reed. I don't think it's possible to do a better coaching job

with Alex Smith than Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman did. That was just masterful. That's fair. They just played to Smith every strength he had and took away every weakness. but if you want to defend Andy Reid you can say that he gave too much of the offensive responsibility to Marty Morningweg

and he came out and said that look we didn't run the ball enough and it was because Morningweg didn't want to run it kind of threw him under the bus but now Doug Peterson's a first time offensive coordinator and maybe we see Andy Reid taking control again I feel like we're all just doubting Andy Reid don't back the Andy Reid into a corner

you've seen him at those punch pass and kick competitions he's a bad man he's a bad man All right, so we've got the Chargers, and Mark Cecil will handle that. I actually am doing the Raiders, Dan. All right, we're going to do the Raiders, and we're going to Mark Sessler. All right, so obviously one of the bigger in-house bets inside the ATL world is that if the Raiders were to reach or surpass six wins, Chris Wesleyan, and I have to do nothing if they don't do this, but if they do, Wesleyan has vowed to, he is a softball player, to eat. his softball pants.

Will Chris Wessling eat his softball pants? Now, we have discussed before that I believe a third of the cloth can be made into a soup of some sort, but regardless, that would be a rough road. Like a broth, you mean? A broth. You could do whatever you need to to get that third of the pants down, but the rest has to be straight on sort of cloth chewing with some... What about the zipper?

The entire thing. I don't have to eat the zipper. The entire thing. There's no way I'm eating the zipper. We'll discuss, but like, Question, flat out, do we get to Christmas or, let's say, New Year's, in his West eating his softball pants? No way. I don't think so.

I'm just hoping it's close so that we're getting to week 17, and we're watching, like, Sebastian Janikowski line up for a vehicle, and the softball pans eating is all on that. It would be exciting. I think that would be great. I will bring the pants into the office. We'll hold them up. We're watching Seabas kick. I think that would be a fun atmosphere.

What is it again? Six wins. Oh, come on. No way. Just to get to six, right? That would do it. I have pulled them out of the marinade. I've given them a pet talk.

I've told them there's no way we're not stretching another single into a double. It's absolutely going to happen. Don't worry about the Raiders. I like that you talk to your clothes. Losing Jared Beldeer was huge. I mean, if they win six, I honestly think Dennis Allen should be a coach of the year candidate. If they go six and ten or seven-eleven because that they're talking about, this isn't last year. The rebuilding process has started, but I don't know.

All those starters are. brand new guys and not a lot of talent. And the only thing I will say about the Raiders' current leadership structure is if Dennis Allen pulled out five or six wins, to him and McKenzie still get fired. I could still see, I could see it happening, and it would be a terrible decision. But I don't trust that entire organization from the top down. They need more time, I mean, but they may not get it because that's not how the NFL works right now, but it's like will Mark Davis suddenly go somewhat insane?

pull the plug on the entire operation. He's listening to this right now. I hope he is. What's to love about what the operation is at this point? It's possibly the least talented team in all of football from a roster. Like, what's even close? And how long does Alex Barron last as left tackle? Is it going to end after this week?

Is he going to make it to the regular season? I'd say he doesn't make it out of September as the starter. Yeah. That could be maybe for like a softball jersey. Will Wes eat a softball jersey? All right. So, Wes, you actually have the San Diego Chargers. Okay, so we poke fun at the Raiders expense.

We make jokes. We make bets. Do the Raiders have a chance to have a better record than the Chargers? From what I saw of Philip Rivers, every pass he threw more than 15 yards was a jump ball between the offense and the defense. He doesn't have the arm he once did. He's got no offensive line. The question is, do the Chargers have a chance to finish as the worst team in that division? No, I don't think so

I mean there's always a chance But I think the Chargers have a much better chance Of being second place I'm a little surprised at no one out there I haven't seen your guy's predictions yet But Chargers aren't getting much love As a bounceback team And they kind of make sense to me

For the same reason I pick the Chiefs The Schedule and the Division And they've got a quarterback who's shown It can be pretty good You know I think they have a better chance To go 8 and 8th than be like the Raiders I have to go down that same path I see where you're coming from

and actually when I look at my standings they really don't look a whole lot better than the Raiders in my book. Rivers is pretty questionable but I actually believe that McCoy is the kind of coach that can get the most out of pretty average offensive weapons. I mean, I don't want to always go

back to what he did with Tebow but he's a creative coach. He's willing to play to his player's strengths and so I don't see them completely bottoming out and losing the AFC West. What's Philip Rivers' strength at this point in his career? Well, no, I don't I think that Philip Rivers is... That was early. He peaked early with that, too.

That's right. Yeah, I think it's not crazy to imagine Philip Rivers becoming a top 10 quarterback again. I mean, he's pretty young. He's shown a pretty high level if they can protect him. It wouldn't be that surprising, would it? I mean, he's still a pretty young player. Top 10 seems... Yeah, I would be shocked.

I think he's basically Carson Palmer right now. He's lost too much arm strength, and that makes him gamble too much and throw too many picks, too many turnovers. To me, he's a journeyman quarterback now. But your question is, will they be worse than the Raiders? And I would take Philip Rivers over Matt Flynn or anything the Raiders are throwing at you. Plus, we got Making the Leap candidates. Kendall Reyes and Corey Legit.

The Raiders don't have any combo like that. They got some interesting. But Eric Weddell, you know, Butler at lineback. The Raiders aren't legit. All right, fellas. So let's do it. Let's go around the horn and pick the records. Wes, start with you.

Broncos 11-5. Chiefs, 7 and 9. Chargers, 3 and 13. Oof. Raiders, 2 and 14. All right, that's fair. Go ahead, Mark. Mine are similar.

I have the Broncos at a 11, 4, and 1. Wow. And because of that tie with the Chiefs, the Chiefs sneak into the playoffs at 9, 6, and 1. Whoa. So he's buying the Chiefs. The Chargers, 4 and 12, and the Raiders, bringing up the rear at 2 and 4.

14. Right, Greg. That's probably got to be getting them the number one pick there, 2 and 14. I guess we'll have to see the rest of Seltres pick. I have the Broncos falling back to Earth a little bit because of that defense and going 10 and 6. The Chiefs also making the playoffs at 9 and 7. Wow.

Going back to a lot of rib-eaten for Andy Reid. Well, part of it is you've got to pick some new playoff teams, and this would still make four of the six AFC teams for Mark and I returning to the playoffs. Wesleyan and Dan are just going chalk even. more so, but you've got to mix it up. Cleveland Browns, the rest of my case. Okay. Chiefs 9 and 7, Chargers, 6, and 10, and the Raiders at 3 and 13. All right, and then I also have the Broncos 11 and 5.

They're going to lose a winner two because of Miller. Chiefs at 7 and 9, Chargers, 5 and 11, and the Raiders, they drop a 1 in 15. Wow. Wait, quick question. So who's everyone's number one seat in the AFC now that we've gone through? mine would be the New England Patriots and the Steelers would be the number two seed I have the Colts and Broncos winning division

and then the Chiefs and the Ravens and the Chiefs as the Wild Guards I have Broncos as number one Texans is number two I don't think the Texans even get to the NFC championship because of a lack of preparation I don't have my records in front of me

but I think I had the paths at 12 and 4 so that would have made them the one seed and then the Broncos and Bengals are both 11 and 5, let's say the Broncos get the tiebreaker, so Broncos and pass again. I have four 11 and 5 teams for the division winners. I've got Patriots number one seed, Texans number two seed. To not a lot of surprises in the AFC, I've you know, I have sources that have shown me some of the

NFC picks. They are a little more exciting. The NFC is tougher to pick. There's more new playoff teams. There's more upset, so you have that to look forward to, not as boring as these AFC picks. All right, so we ran out of time so we can't talk about hard knocks today, which is Probably for the best because half of us didn't even watch the episode. We'll be back on Friday where we break down, I guess, the NFC East. NFC East is next, yes.

Get excited. And I guess that's it. Download, download our podcast on iTunes, rate it, leave comments. There's something called Stitcher. I don't know what that is. But get that also. Do whatever has to be done to give us world dominance. And we'll be back Friday.

Thanks for listening. Will Chris Wessling eat his softball pants? Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front opposites construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective. you won't find anywhere else.

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