NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - NFL Conference Championship Picks and Liam Coen Jaguars Stunner

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

NFL Daily host Gregg Rosenthal welcomes NFL Network's own Cynthia Frelund to help you get your bets ready for the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs. In this episode, the duo picks against the spread between the Commanders and Eagles in the NFC, and the Bills and Chiefs in the AFC — but first, Gregg provides an update on the vacant Jacksonville Jaguars head coaching position, as a surprise contender might close a deal soon...NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL fantasy football podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet,

we've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL fantasy football. football podcast on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Hey, everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and

NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey guys.

So I'm going to get you to the regularly scheduled top of the show with the song and the conference championship picks against the spread with Cynthia Freeland in just a second. but as Cynthia and I were finishing our show Game Day View, which is on NFL Network, you can check it out. I see a tweet from our guy Rapsheet. He's breaking some news. And I'm going to quote him here. Plot twist.

Buck's offensive coordinator, Liam Cohen, has been speaking with the Jaguars in person for their head coaching job, and he is a key candidate to be the coach in Jacksonville, per me and Tom Pelliserro. Liam Cohen, you do. dirty dog. I just had to talk about this and include it as part of the show before we break for the weekend. Going to be our first Saturday in about six weeks without football because I love stories like this. And it's fascinating. And I've seen a lot of different coaching maneuvers over

the years, but I've never seen anything quite like this. And it's going to change a couple division races, I believe, in 2025 if Cohen ends up being the Jaguars head coach. And it looks like he's going to. Let's back it up a day to Wednesday. Okay. It's announced by our insiders and really all around the media that Liam Cohen has agreed to return to the Bucks as their offensive coordinator. The Bucks agreed to make him one of the highest paid offensive coordinators in the NFL. I don't know if any offensive coordinator did a better job than Liam Cohen in 2024. He was incredible with Baker Mayfield and the Bucks.

Great news for the Bucks. A couple hours later, the Jaguars release a statement that Trent Balke has been fired. And if you listen to the end of our marathon championship game preview show, we talked about that. And it really seemed like a response to what happened with Liam Cohen. Shot Khan, their owner had said previously in a press conference that he's standing behind Trent Balke, but that he would keep, you know, his mind open. And what happened here is I think he found

out that Trent Balke was coaching poison. And he decided to throw Trent Balke, his general manager for five years off the boat. And what I should have thought about then, but I didn't, because we had already heard Liam Cohen agreed to return to the Bucks, was that the Jaguar we're going to make another push for Cohen. And that's exactly what happened. Part of the intrigue here is the reporting from all over the place. Jonathan Jones with CBS, Adam Schaefter, with ESPN, that Liam Cohen ghosted the bucks,

that they have not heard from Liam Cohen or his representatives all day long before they see the rap sheet report that he's literally in Jacksonville, in the building, meeting with the Jaguars. For Coim to take that meeting, he better be ready to take that job because at this point he has a lot of people upset. All right, a couple questions for Liam Cohen,

assuming he takes this Jacksonville job. Number one, can he build a staff? Our friend, Ollie Connolly, has kind of been all over this Liam Cohen story and he has said publicly, Cohen, that he only wants to take a job when he feels like he's fully ready. and there are some questions about whether he has enough contacts through the leagues.

He's been bouncing around between Kentucky and the Rams and now to the Bucks and the circumstances with which he left Kentucky high and dry are awfully similar to this one that maybe he didn't communicate too much with them before he left for the Bucks. There's a question of what kind of staff can he build? Does he have the right general manager in mind or is he just trusting the Jaguars to do that? his guy is believed to be John SpyTech, who reportedly agreed to become the Raiders next GM. Is that contract in writing?

Who knows? There could be more drama here. But if Cohen is there, what great news for Trevor Lawrence? We'll find out if he can be a successful head coach. But I think he was an incredible play caller and has really learned a lot over his years play calling. And if you're a Trevor Lawrence fan, if you're a Jaguars fan, this is absolutely great news. And it's almost just as brutal news if you're a Bucks fan. The buzz going around the NFL right now is that Jason Light, the Bucks GM, is not happy about this.

And the reports that are out there that they didn't hear anything about it until it apparently was too late is going to get people upset. And it's not a great job by Liam Cohen. then again, I don't know the full story. So I think it's unfair to totally judge from the outside. You don't know what you don't know. You see this with player acquisitions and free agency quite a bit. And ultimately, there's nothing that the Bucks can do. If he wants to take a head coaching job,

he can go take a head coaching job, even if he verbally agreed with the Bucks. One of the interesting wrinkles is that it has been reported now that he did let Todd Boles know Thursday, evening that he was interviewing with the Jaguars. It's such a crazy situation because the Bucks were hoping, I believe, to have their cake and eat it to. Keep Todd Bowles, who's been a good hood coach for them and is a great defensive play caller and keep Liam Cohen. It is interesting to think about what the Bucks

would have done if they knew all along that Liam Cohen was going to leave because we've seen what this Bucs organization has done before. They have elevated. coordinators that they did not want to leave the building and an offensive play caller, as my friend Dave Damashik says, is one of the most valuable things you can have in the NFL. And the Jaguars are absolutely acting like it. They're probably given Liam Cohen a big old contract. Maybe Ben Johnson earned Liam Cohen some money. I will update this if something changes.

But at this point, I am expecting Liam Cohen to be the. the next head coach of the Jaguars. And it's just a shocking and fascinating turn of events that I really think is going to shape these two division races. Because Todd Bowles has done a great job finding Dave Canales and then finding Liam Cohen. And now it looks like he's going to have to find another offensive coordinator to run his team in 2025 because the Jaguars,

I don't know if they're going to win on the field in 2025, but as low as their fans felt throughout this entire Balki saga, Somehow he's out of the building and somehow they get a really exciting play caller in the building. They're feeling good and they at least have their first W of the 2025 season if they can get Cohen to sign on the dot online. Make sure he signs. All right, let's go to the rest of the show. Cynthia and I picking some games. Welcome to NFL Daily.

We're like Billy Bean. Our stuff just doesn't work in the playoffs apparently. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in the Chris Wessling podcast studio. Yep. Not for the last time, but one of the last times this season to make our picks. I mean, maybe ever. I don't know if they're going to ask you back to see.

Cynthia Freeland. Same. I never know around here. Welcome, Cynthia. It's conference championship weekend. Woo-hoo. We did it. And that started the show that I'm referring to,

the general manager of the Oakland Athletics, long-time GM, Billy B. often said and look I can give our producer Chris a little extra work he just would say maybe my shit just doesn't work in the playoffs you know because he would just get the A's to the

playoffs and then it wouldn't come through and my picks have been poor in the playoffs I'll own it my one stay away last week was a win that was the bills but I went 02 and 1 because that Eagles game was a push you got 1 and 2 so let's rebound here

for these last two games we were great in the regular season, much like the Philadelphia Eagles. Let's start there. The line started the week at four and a half, got pretty quickly moved up to last week's line. So it's Eagles minus six, just like they were against the Rams.

I believe that was your stayaway. That's why you did not have a push. But you were with me on the Eagles side. It could have gone either way. I just didn't want to do the same one as you. Jake Elliott. those missed extra points killed it. What do you think this week?

I think four was about right. Ooh. I think four was about right. I have the Eagles winning this one, but I don't think that they're going to do it by more than six points. I think that's too rich for my blood. Okay. Maybe five, four, five. I think that four and a half line,

I think it was priced correctly when it first came out. They usually do. I know. That's why they've got those big towers. Yeah, that's why, you know, super fancy rooms. I, although this year, they've struggled because it's been a favorite, heavy type of year. I, let's just start at the end.

I'm taking the commanders too. So. Are you taking the commanders? I don't need to on this show. Got it. I'm not really sure. I've gone back and forth. So we'll start at the end and then we'll explain why we're making these picks.

But at first I was thinking, Eagles cover. Then I'm thinking commanders win outright. I'm just all over the place because if it's a close game, I sort of trust the commander's game management and their history in those games and their coaching staff a little more than Nick Siriani.

Nick Syriani is a hot head. And when you just look at the pure talent and how they've gotten here and the depth charts and the numbers, like I get why the Eagles could win this game by two score. So nothing would surprise me. And yet on this show,

I don't have to make a straight up pick. I am just feeling like I'm taking the commanders plus six. Now, why from a football angle, do you think four was around the right number? Like what aspects do you think that are going to help the commanders cover this spread? Well, the first thing is, is how Jaden Daniels has adapted to the Blitz. Ah, newsflash.

He's really good at it. That also works for some pressure metrics as well. The thing that, to me, does end up becoming the tipping point is as good as we've seen this Washington defense become. And they started off not good. And then they've gotten better and better and better as the season's gone on. I still don't think they have an answer to the dual-headed threat or I guess triple-headed threat, if you want to think of it that way, that is this passing running and then

passing on the run offense that is the Eagles. So I just, it's nothing about that the Jaden Daniels set of the ball. I think it's very intriguing. I think Terry McClorn has been a very like underrated wide receiver for many. I know he's a pro bowler now, but you know, I think like we don't, historically, this guy's done way better than perhaps his kind of accolades have suggested until this point with way worse quarterback. So interesting. And I just don't think, though, that I don't think Washington has enough stuff to stop A.J. Brown, Devonte Smith, Dallas Goddard, whatever the heck, Saquan Barclay is going to do. And then whoever they get to, like, do a trick play here, there. Right. Jalen Hertz and his mobility is a huge question mark. How much does that affect their run game? I thought he moved. I thought he moved much better. Everyone was like negative $5 billion. And, yeah. And the announcers were so hard on it that he's just not moving at it all.

But when I flipped on the film, after that injury, he moved. Do yourself a favor? Yeah. Do yourself a favor too. Sometimes, like I go back when I feel like, like sometimes a narrative on TV goes, I just listen to the Eagles radio broadcast. It was a lot more, I would say fair. Okay.

It's obviously slanted towards the Eagles, because all the home radio broadcasts are. But in terms of the mobility, it kind of pointed out the same thing as you. Well, they're not calling something that really leverages all of Jailen Hertz's mobility. It was a bit of potentially protective as opposed to trying to see what we got.

Right. They didn't know, but there was, my Michigan accent is coming out. I love it. I love your Michigan shirt. What does it say? Ocomiss Athletic Club? Yeah, that's where I'm from.

It's like, like it says Oaks. Love it. This is why you've got to check us out on YouTube. You got to check out. It's club with a K. Cynthia's numbers game on YouTube and what you do when you get there. You don't just watch the videos.

You like, you subscribe to the channel. You turn on notifications. And you get a piece of paper and you write down all the things. It is a beefy podcast. You mentioned Jonathan Allen hasn't played against the Eagles in either of those matchups.

And sometimes the name on the back of the jersey doesn't match the reputation. He was coming back from the injuries. And then I watched last week. That was like real deal, Jonathan Allen. That's like adding, I'm not saying he's Jalen Carter, but it's adding a Pro Bowl level player to the mix. Tell me who in the back end, it's, we're not getting healthy Marshall and Llamour. We're not.

He looked a little better last week. But it's still not, that is still not the same man. I trust my guy, Bram Weinstein. I love Bram. We had him on NFL Daily. And I have to admit. I need to go back and listen to it. I love him.

I worked with him in ESPN. My wife, Emiko makes fun of me that I always go like, I always trust whoever the last person is that I talk to about something. and there was something about Bram that has influenced my going back and forth. I mean, the confidence that he has, the confidence that that team has, the vibes. And it's so stupid to talk about vibes. But when you're talking about six points, I feel a little better talking about vibes. He is the better quarterback in this game, obviously. I think the coaching staff on balance, I trust the commanders actually a little bit in a closer spot.

So if I'm trusting the quarterback and the coaches and the vibes, a little more, I'm going to take six points in this matchup. I kind of see I can just see the Eagles being a team that has their heartbroken and not end up winning this game or at least sweating it out. I

see Jalen Hertz holding onto the ball when they blitz. And one thing that's been interesting in this matchup, the two times of the commanders, they actually haven't gotten pressure with four. A little surprising. One thing I didn't hit in the preview was that the kind of the regular running game from the commanders got going last

week, that's going to be a big deal. They were great early in the season, not so much late. I think they're kind of playing better at the right time. And they just remind me of some of these six seeds, like over the course of history, like the Packers with Aaron Rogers. Who was another one? There was one in 2005. Was that the Steelers team, I think, was a six seed when they. There's only been like two. There's only been a couple. And they just, they have so much belief. And I just think the Eagles are potentially there for the taking, even though I've been on their side all season. If you give me six points, I'm going to take it. I don't have to pick the game straight up.

You can watch Game Day View for that. Then don't, yeah. I think you are hearing how I'm leaning. I do. I like, I don't like it. When you talk yourself into something, those are my favorite moments, especially like, I'm pulling the curtain back here. We will be on, you know, filming in the middle of the show.

And pre-show, he'll be like, you know what? I'm taking the Eagles. And then I'll be like, screw it. I'm going with the computer. commanders, the vibes are so strong. It's so good. It's my favorite moments. It's like, I love it.

I love everything about it. It's so stupid. And it's stupid because I won't even be able to enjoy the game because I'm going to be real. I always kind of pull for the Eagles a little bit. They're just one of those teams I enjoy and I would be happy if they win. And yet I have a bad feeling about this game for them. Let's go to the other. AFC championship.

One and a half is the number as we talk. It's gone back and forth between one and a half and two. One and a half feels better. I saw some places it was one. Some places it was two. I think one and a half is good. I think that's right. Two stinks because you could like.

Two is annoying. Two happens. It happened last week. It happened last week. And the bills won by that. Do you think the bills can cover that one and a half? I mean, sure they can. My problem in this one is as we sit here right now, to me, this is a, this is a one point game.

And really, exactly. So you're going to, you're going to try to. to thread the needle. I'm not trying to do anything. Your projection model has a chiefs win, but only by one. Oh, that's cowardly. Correct. Yeah, I actually wrote a cowardly model.

Like, that's what I tried to do? Like, what can I do to make this the most cowardly model ever? But look, the reality is, is if there is no Christian Benford, if there is no Taylor Rapp. I think we're getting Benford. He's at practice. I don't know. We don't know for sure.

Right. So, but as we sit here right now, he's technically still in the concussion protocol. Big deal. And that is, that is a matter. massive deal. Because losing two guys, yeah. Losing two guys when you have this guy named Travis Kelsey, who if you look at the difference between when a defensive back covers him

versus when a linebacker covers him in these bills matchups, it's like, you know, one is like eight yards per catch. There's like 12 yards per. Like, come on, man. You're really going to ask Terrell Bernard to handle that without everything behind him being good. And as much as I, and I love Matt Malano, BC alum, he's great. But I don't know if he's like, he came back from injury. and I it just doesn't feel like he's like the full strength Matt Milano beginning of like he doesn't and and then this chief's team they're getting healthier I saw a report they're so healthy it's annoying it's like the healthiest team in the NFL you want to talk about luck wild that's where they've gotten some luck yeah that's where they've gotten some luck but I will say the bill's O line is better and I will say that the quarterbacks are pretty evenly matched so I'm this is not a a one point win it's a cowardly pick but I'm joking no it is don't feel bad wait now I'm a cowardice

I'm not a coward by modelism, but I made it. If Benford, either way, for the point of this show, and it's why picking the numbers is different than picking the winners, ultimately a point and a half is enough for you and your model that in a game this even, just take the one and a half. It doesn't have to be that much more complicated. Now, if I told you Benford and Rapp are out... Then I think the chiefs are...

Wow. So Benford is the difference because... No, no, the combination. The combination. Because does who is going, look at what Xavier Worthy has done in recent weeks. Wow. They changed his average depth of target. They cut it more than in half.

And the man is all about that yak lifestyle. And that is where he could outrun. I'm not scared of him against Amar Hamlet. I'm not scared of him against anyone in that secondary. Rosal Douglas, not the fastest guy. No. And if you can get something over Matt Milano's head, life is tough. So when I'm looking at that, and then I factor in how healthy this,

defenses for the chiefs. Like, it's just hard. But if Christian Benford's there, that is a difference maker. Okay. We'll track the injury report. But like I said, Bedford, I believe, is limited, but is in the concussion protocol. Rapp has not been seen at practice, which is not a great sign.

And that's a big deal. It is a big deal. Jarrell Bernard cannot an entire offense stop. We are taping this on Thursday afternoon. So keep an eye. Check the injury report and keep that in mind. But for now, you're there. I'm on the bills

I'm going to go ahead and say and I'll say this I'd like to see the bills I mean I can make an argument that it'd be fun to see a Chiefs three Pete that's cool but come on man I did I did preseason with the bills

I've been a Bill stand like now my lines are out whatever I'm gonna go with the bills like I want to see something new you know like that it's not an anti-chief sentiment I like the Chiefs I love Patrick Mahomes is the best we'll see in our lifetime probably you know up close and personal and I felt for you I mean I felt for me because I was pretty strong saying that not only were the Lions going to win that the Lions minus nine and a half was my favorite pick last week I got a few mentions on that one and I deserved them I deserved them that was very much the wrong side as a Lions fan I can tell you that this is better than last year last year that was the worst you're up at halftime in the NFC championship game by like

17 points and you come back and get gutted, no, that's worse. So this one was at least like, they deserve to lose. There wasn't much, there wasn't much mystery to it. No, you would, now, Jamir Gibbs, that man was trying to win. But it was a lot of other things just weren't going right. It was like a comedy of errors, if you will. That defense was going to require them to score 40 plus. You can't turn the ball over two times, let alone five.

But again, I apologize. And maybe I'm over-correcting here, but in terms of the commanders, because I got it so wrong last week, we'll find out. I'm going to go ahead and set it. Say, I think this Bill's Chief's game, good football game.

Oh, you know, listen, if you like football. Talk about cowardly tanks. That was the point. That was it. I am looking forward right now. As much as I'm excited about the NFC championship game, I'm looking forward to that's going to be great

in the first half of this bill. If you could just transport me to the fourth quarter of Bill's Chiefs, I just know that that feeling is what you look for as a sports fan. Now it's not one of my teams or anything. But I did have the bills winning the Super Bowl this year, so I am invested.

But that's what you love. And it's because of everything that built towards it. So I gave all the X's and O's, and we talked about the preview on Thursday's show, and Nick Wright was on the show, and Patrick and I broke down why we think it's going to happen in certain ways. And I think the bills are going to win this game.

I do legitimately believe it. But one of the reasons why I'm so excited about that moment on Sunday afternoon is the build-up to this. I mean, the Chiefs are trying to be the greatest team in the history of football. And in their way is the team that if they lose on Sunday, has a pretty strong argument as the greatest team to not make a Super Bowl in the five-year window. Here's what the bills have done leading into this game.

It started in the year where they lost the AFC championship game to the Chiefs. It continued, obviously, in that great shootout in the divisional round in overtime. They have won 12.2 games on average in the regular season over the last five years. That's amazing. They have averaged third place in point differential over the last five years. They have never been lower than fifth. That is the hardest thing to do in the NFL. You are top five in point differential for five straight years.

You never drop below 11 wins for five straight years. You've been at 13 since five straight years. And I think all of that experience really does matter. Not that they're hungrier, but that sometimes it really is your time. And one of the reasons it's their time is I think they're built to beat this chief's team because like the chiefs, they're so intelligent. They don't beat themselves. They don't make mistakes that they can out chiefs the chiefs.

and I think they can be diverse, defensively, offensively. They can do any sort of game plan. And then when it comes down to it, quarterbacks, offense, which quarterback is ultimately better right now? Who is playing better right now? Which offense is better right now? It is the bills. This is actually the best bills offense that they've had in terms of point score in terms

of efficiency. I know you don't have the star power of Stefan Diggs, but being able to run the ball and be diverse and change your game plan, it is the best. often. So this is the year that they are going to do it. They're not going to be the best team that hasn't made the Super Bowl because they are going to make the Super Bowl and they win it by three points. Great game. Bills, Chiefs, 3128. Let's go with that. That's it. Sorry. I just had to rant. I love being here for this rant. This is incredible. Like, I feel like

I just, like, some people go to church on Sundays. I just went to church. Oh, man. And it was great. But you sounded at points, you, you almost, I was like, I should let Cynthia in here. No. She's either enjoying it. I'm enjoying it. Or she's scared. I don't know by the intent.

I'm enjoying it. No, I'm completely enjoying it. I need more of these rants in my life, but I need them about, like, also teams. Like, I like both of these teams, obviously, but I would love Alliance rant whenever I can order one. Or just like your private life. All right, Cynthia, this is going to be a big day for your wedding plan. Oh, Jesus. I'm the world's worst wedding.

taking steps one and two here. Well, steps one and two I did. One was find the right person. Okay, that's good. You know, it's just been hanging out there. We're worried. We're worried about you and Kyle.

But we are not worried about these games. They are going to be fantastic. To review, we're both on the commanders plus six. And actually, we're both on the bills plus one and a half. But you say keep an eye. If both guys in the secondary are out, you're going to flip it. So keep that in mind. We are going to keep track of that in the rest.

in terms of the records. Although I have a feeling Bedford will be out there and then it won't be a question. I hope so for Bill's fans. And Bill's fans everywhere, I hope that they get Chris. Yes.

Let's play that song because look, Cynthia. When you're ranting. When I'm ranting and the bills are finally going back to the Super Bowl, don't be afraid of it. Eric Roberts.

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Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL fantasy football podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL fantasy football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We start. We start. study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast.