NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - NFL Divisional Round Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

NFL Daily host Gregg Rosenthal welcomes NFL Network's own Cynthia Frelund to help you get your bets ready for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. In this episode, the duo picks against the spread between the Texans and Chiefs, Commanders and Lions, Rams and Eagles, as well as the Ravens and Bills.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we like our games big and our point spread small. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio back with Cissel. Cynthia Freeland, the best numbers, man or woman in the business. We call this man versus machine.

Cynthia, we've been picking three games all season long. We've only got seven games left in this entire season. But they're big games. They are. So it's not like they're like seven, eh, you know, it's like seven big ones. No, and that's why this is the best weekend because you get four of those seven. You've been living with those teams for so long. And I, you know, I alluded to it in the intro.

There are a lot of big point spreads this week, which I don't love. You know, a divisional round week. You want, you want them to be closer on paper, but you never know what you're going to get. And that is especially true with our picks lately. I went one and two last week, Cynthia, and you went two and one. Well, we went ahead. I had to head on one. So I knew.

Yes, you got the Texans very right. And I got the chargers very wrong. We were both in on the Eagles and got that right. And the Bucks, I would mess us up. If they were playing that game again this week, I would make the same pick, but it ultimately didn't work out. So very close. We're both now over 500. So, you know, you can't argue with that for the season.

But I'm annoyed because picking literally every single game, which they keep track of on game they view, I'm 20 over picking every game. I'm somehow better off there. We're going to change the setup this week. Okay. Every week we pick exactly three games. We're still going to do that. But since there's only four, we're going to go through all four. Okay.

And we're going to each have one stay away. Stay away. So we each pick one stay away. Let's start. We're going to just go in chronological order. So let's start with the Saturday afternoon game. It's Texans Chiefs. As we're recording this, the Chiefs are favored by eight and a half.

Which way are you leaning? Chiefs to win, but Texans with the points. Okay. That's what I think happens in this one. I think it's like a nice, just like before when they played, I don't know, not that long ago. It was a seven point win. I think that's about right where it should be. I think it was 26 to 19 last time that they played.

I think that's, I think I have 20, 20, something like that. So I think it's a chief's win. They're so healthy. That's my like number one thing with this team. Like no one's on the injury report compared to other teams, the lions. I'm wearing the shirt. Yeah. So that drives a win for me.

You know, I don't know what to think about the rest versus the rust. This is kind of unprecedented, the 25, 24 days thing. And yet, ultimately, I think that's an advantage for the Chiefs. But I do think it's an advantage that the Texans, who are heavy underdogs here, just played in Arrowhead. And I think it was one of the Chief's best offensive performances of the year. And yet, until that Tank Dell injury, they were going toe to toe, and I think they have to have some confidence.

I'm with you. I'm going Texans plus eight and a half. half for this game. I'm even as the week is going on, you're talking yourself into the Texan. I am really talking myself. Ooh, I like it. I know they haven't lost the Arrowhead since Christmas of 2023.

And yet, uh, I do think the Texans are the best defense in the AFC. And it's versus an offense that was playing its best late in the season and figured some things out, but overall struggled. And so I think that's a lower scoring game. I'm hoping that the Texans offense can join the party. We've had problems with them all year. And I think C.J. Stroud is capable of doing that.

That I think the monkey will be a little off their back. They'll feel good. They got a playoff win. They're coming into it. They've been, you know, they're rested from resting week 18, but then they're coming in. I don't know. I'm convincing myself. I like it.

Whatever. Talk yourself into it. I like it. And you didn't even bring up Kamari Lasseter and Derek Singley Jr. Yes. Number one and number two, like in terms of when they've been targeted in tight coverage. Best corners in the league. Yes. And the Chiefs have been great going over the

middle of the field and you could do that with Kelsey certainly and Noah Gray. But the Texans have been very good defending those plays. Even though they're short a few players, Jeline Petrie, Justin Reed, you know, but they've played well despite those injuries. All right, let's go to Lions and commanders. I'll start off here

because I know, you know, you're feeling a certain way about this team game just a little nervous. If there's ever a playoff, every playoff game you should be nervous for, it's a divisional round game Of course, it's going to be hard. But there's a reason the lions are favored by eight and a half. This is my favorite pick of the entire week.

Is the lions covering that big spread? Here's why. When they play the commander's defense, it's the biggest mismatch on divisional round weekend. Last week, I saw Baker Mayfield with a lot of time. I trust Jared Goff even more with a lot of time. I think that offensive line gives them time. But even more important, this commander's team is the worst team, according to next-gen stats, against runs under center.

In terms of success rate, in terms of giving up explosive runs, their second worst, what are the Lions major in? That's what they major in. It's a light defense, too. I often see Jeremy Chin or Mike Santer still. They're in the box as kind of a third linebacker. And I just think the lines are too strong, too good offensively, not to put up 35 points in this game.

And I think that's enough to cover the spread. They score between 35 and 40. Jaden has a fine game, and it's somewhere like 38 to 24. Let's go, Lyons. Let's just go with yours. I mean, I actually have a closer game. It is my most confident on the week in terms of who wins, which is not a great place to be for me mentally. I like a hedge.

I'm a banker. I come from not wanting to lose. But like, this is, listen, it's just nerve-wracking, you're here. I know. I used to be a talented broadcaster. Who's been getting it done. Questionable. But ultimately.

I mean, look, I agree with you on all of those points. The under center runs also, the O line for, to me, O lines are really, really predictive in the postseason, even more so than the regular season. And I just think that the Lions O line, which is knock on wood, like one of the areas where they're not as banged up, Taylor Decker should play, not as banged up. And I'm worried about Kevin Zitler, not playing.

I'm concerned about that. However, in this matchup, this is not the heaviest pressure team in the command. They have been bringing some pressure, but not like some of these other teams in the playoffs. So I mean, calm down about it. Feel good. People act like you've been there before. We were here last year. But other than that, never.

I've never been here before. Marshawn Latimore is not really getting it done so far for the commanders. So I think you have some. I just like that Amon Raus St. Brown was like, Diami Brown was drafted ahead of me. And I remember that. I like that locker room motivation. That's another fun.

one. And I just think I talked about a little in the previous show. There are two teams at different points in their builds. This is a really mature Lions team. And I feel like the commanders kind of won their Super Bowl last season. Now, if you told me there's four minutes left in the game and the Lions are only up six and Jane Daniels have the ball. At that point, it all goes out the window. And I'm not only are they not going to cover. I'm not feeling great because that that young man is magical. And He has something really special, but you mentioned like pass rush. You know, the Lions, I think they can maybe get home a little bit. Some weaknesses on that Washington O'Line at left tackle, Brandon Coleman.

I've seen in week 18, the Cowboys kind of attacked Nick Allegreddy, their guards. Some spots where maybe the Lions can blitz and get home like they did against the Vikings. Let's move on to the Eagles. Yes, let's move on. And the Rams game. I think the two Sunday games are better, ultimately, on paper. surprising what a big line this was. When I first saw it early in the week,

it's actually come down slightly, but not much. It's Eagles minus six right now over the Rams. Which way are you leaning? And to review, neither of us did a stayaway in the first two games. That's right. And both of us went Texans and went Lyons. This is my stayaway. Okay.

From in terms of the, I mean, I know the next game is like the better one. It's mostly a pickum. But that means that whoever I pick to win, then is kind of in the right spot, right? But anyways, so this is my stay away from the line, not from the winner. I think the Eagles win this one. But I would be equally unsurprised if it was by one point or if it was by 10.

You know, we saw them. They had a pretty massive win when they were out here in Los Angeles. But I still think there's something special about getting all the pieces on this Rams offense together. There's some stat, you know, since the beginning of last season, like a third of the snaps is a total amount that they played together. they being Matthew Stafford, Kyron Williams, Cooper Cup, and of course, Pooka Nakua. So I think there's something that, but it's going to be

cold. It's going to be, I mean, it's outside, obviously. It's going to be angry. We know Philadelphia is not the, you go in, it's not the warm and friendly pond finds. It's a, it's an angry situation. And I think that the secondary of

the Rams is more, way, way, way more vulnerable than we saw from Minnesota. Minnesota, they There's no time for Sam Donald to pass. Right. When you have one quarterback that you trust a lot more than the other, and I trust Matthew Stafford more in this game than Jalen Hertz, it's tough to give away six points.

All the points you make are really strong in terms of you want to stay away and you don't know how it's going to turn out. And yet when I thought about you got to pick three out of four games here, I actually do feel pretty good about the Eagles. Good. I mean, my model has seven points, so... Sixes is a lot, and I don't love doing that, but I am taking the Eagles to cover the six.

Now, I got some grief from Rams fans after our preview show. Your daughter? She, I mean, she does not listen to our preview show. She is a... I'm going to watch the three hours of the game and be intense and be clapping really loud, and then she's going to unplug from all coverage

until the next game stuff. That's smart. That's a great way to... She's so healthy. Great, great way to fan. What a healthy, dad. Good job. But some Rams fans weren't happy because we had on Bo Wolf who covers the Eagles, and it was an Eagles leaning pod.

And look, we cover the Rams as much as any team around here. Maybe more. And I, especially in this studio. And I felt like we covered them a lot after the Monday night game. And ultimately, I do think the Eagles are the more fascinating team here because they've spent years building a roster this good. And they could get upset. The Rams have that sort of magic. they have the coach, they have the quarterback.

It could happen. But when I look at this match, I do think the first meeting is really instructive. My number one question is, can these players hold up on a cold day against this Eagles O line, just run after run after run, including Jaylen Hurts.

They're a great O line, so. I mean, that's why I think Eagles win. But like I said, I think the score can be all over the place. I tend to agree. I think it's a high variance game and Rams fans will be in my men. mentioned getting after me if they do it, but these are the players I'm thinking about.

You mentioned the cornerbacks where we'll see if Jalen Hertz can actually deliver the ball, but that's a mismatch on the outside for Devantza Smith, A.J. Brown, who was back at practice on Thursday. Dallas got her missed practice, but it was with an illness, which generally you would think he'll be okay by Sunday. I actually think if you're even a little ill, you should get the heck out of there. Stop infecting people. People in our place should do that too. Locker room, not the situation. You do not want to entirely sick. No. But the Rams are going all the way east. They haven't been as great in general in the Stafford era outside. Arizona is more east of Los Angeles. Well, you know, that's an indoor situation. And it's the

defense. It's these players. Christian Roseboom. Yep. Braden Fiske, much better stopping the past. Sometimes you can run on him a little bit. Byron Young, not the biggest guy on the edge. Now, Neville Gallimore is a guy who's playing a lot for them. I think about that matchup and the Eagles just leaning on them. And I can't get that game. I believe it was week 12 out of my head. So I think offensively, that's the big mismatch, Eagles run game. Yeah.

On the other side, we'll see. We'll see. Can Stafford still beat a great defense in the playoffs? I think it's possible, but this is a great defense. All right, let's go to the last game here. This is your stayaway. This is my stay away, but I thought it'd be more fun to not pick it. Okay.

I'm just going to explain why I'm staying away. I picked the bills to win the Super Bowl before the season. At this point, it just feels ridiculous to go off that. That's cowardly. You just stay with it. And yet I do feel like the Ravens' very best game is the best game in the NFL. Now, can they play their best game for straight weeks? No, that's not how football works normally.

I think the bills are their baseline is a little higher. Maybe there's more variance with the Ravens. some of Lamar's playoff showings do affect me a little bit. And so, like, my head leans slightly Ravens, but I think the bills having the home game is enough for me that I feel good about sticking with my preseason pick. And I do pick the bills. But ultimately, I just am saying to fans out there

who are thinking whether to bet this game or not, I don't know, this is as good as football gets. Yeah. And if you're like me... If you need something to make this more exciting. Right. If you're like me and you just dough on the street, stress and you enjoy it way more when there's sort of nothing on the line.

Just enjoy this game. So that's what I'm going to do. I'm staying away. Yeah. I mean, look, for this game, for me, the fact that the bills are home underdogs, what? I don't understand that. I agree. I think the bills should be about minus one and a half.

Probably just flip it, right? I didn't even mention the Ravens are favored by one and a half on the road. So that's why I'm more comfortable. That's why I faded the other game because I don't know. I figured you were going to fade this last one since we both didn't take any game on Saturday. So whatever. I just want to be a little different and more fun. But anyways, the thing that's interesting for me in this one is Zay Flowers availability.

So far, as of recording this episode, he has not been seen in the open portion of practice. I love that, like very specific, open, whatever, but he hasn't been seen. And the thing about Zay Flowers, and I'm going to say this, let's say if I can say this as nice as possible. He's a BC alum, just like me. So he doesn't run the most precise routes. And sometimes chaos is good. Like in poker, you never want to be predictable.

you know you don't want people to know your rules you don't want people to know your time well good news i don't even think zay flowers knows his predictability rules right so that actually against this past defense i think is an advantage and if he's not playing rashad bateman is a much more precise route runner now christian benford is very good in that secondary but i have some questions about the rest of the secondary for the bills and because of those questions you can get got however if you're going to start following rules like you know running a precise route and being right with it heck they can figure it out they can jump your route they can learn a little bit more you have a better chance of it but if you're zigzagging all over the if you're hey you know the that is interesting

in in my opinion and the other thing that i like your girl loves jumbo and i love how the bills use jumbo more than anyone else meaning they bring in the extra offensive lineman number 70 alec anderson's his name if you want to become friends with him on facebook i'm sure or whatever he i'm sure he's not on you know ex blue sky or whatever because sometimes those guys don't have a ton of followers he probably could be your friend on those things. But anyways, I think it's fun to watch them play in those heavy personnel formations. And this is where Josh Allen has to be the MVP

because Lamar Jackson could rely on Derek Henry. I remember that game, 35 to 10. We all remember Derek Henry ran rough shot over them. We got it. They're not going to give him light boxes or even neutral boxes as often in this one. They gave it to him three times in that game. Why? I don't know.

They're going to go heavier to stop Derek Henry and force Lamar Jackson to pass on them. Yeah, I think that's the biggest advantage. advantage for the Ravens. Got into it with Brian Baldinger, your friend. Love Baldy. On our preview show. And I do think the size and the consistency with which they can run the ball is the

biggest problem for Buffalo, who's a little bit smaller of a defense. Yeah, I will look into becoming friends. You should. With Allegan. If anyone could it be you. He seems kind of nasty, though. He's one if when you flip, like he's playing past the whistle. You know how they say play to the whistle?

He's playing a little past the whistle. You know, we love that, baldy. Yes, that's what you want in your sixth offensive linemen. That's kind of how I act to. Yes, you know. I asked, I was, I got to see one of my friends, Matthias Kuhna, he was in town last week. Colleen and I were hung out with it, which was very funny because the size discrepancy was hysterical. Anyways, I got Matthias to agree that I'm giving big, mean defensive back energy.

I'm undersized. We got it. Okay. Mean defensive back. Yeah. I'm playing through the whistle, man. I'm Kirby Joseph. I'm Brian.

branch. Let's go. I'm more Chauncey Gardner Johnson. Oh, you are definitely who I want to be. A little crap talking. Mouthy and annoying. Not annoying. Maybe inconsistent too, but we'll pop up with some big points. No, no, no, no. His teammates love him. The other team doesn't like him so much, but his teammates

love him. And it is tricky. We're taping this Thursday afternoon and Zayflowers hasn't practiced. You're right, that's a huge I mean, just think about last year's AFC championship game. If he had just held on to the ball there, his big plays were the reason that they were coming back in that game and he does something that the rest

of the team just can't do. I love that that chaos theory that you're bringing. He's a little bit of like the big. I don't go like learn how to play. Yeah, he's like the basic guy at the poker table that actually messes with the experts because they. And everyone gets really mad because he doesn't follow the rules. You can't do that.

So look, you are taking the bills. I'm on your side with that one too. I have the bills winning. Are we like aligned on everything this week unless you take the Texans? We'll see. We'll see. The Rams, Eagles, I have the Eagles covering the six points. You're staying away, although you basically agree with me there.

I agree with you. Lions and Commanders. We're both taking the Lions and Texans. Chief, we're probably just stepping into it, both taking the Texans on the original round weekend against the Chiefs. What could go wrong? Let's get out of here. We only have two more of these.

The rest of the season, but we will be back. What are you going to do with all your extra time? I don't know. But we don't have it. be a dad because we're actually going to be back on Saturday night recapping those two divisional round games. Jordan Roderig of The Athletic will be joining me for that show. And yes, when we're playing games that are going to be remembered

like for the rest of the time when Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are like creating six unfortunate months of legacy talk, you know football is back, back Saturday. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters.

We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sundays. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Six podcast on the IHeart Radio. app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast.

Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more.

This is an IHeart podcast.