NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - NFL Week 13 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: November 27, 2025

NFL Daily's picks show is BACK for Week 13! A red-hot Gregg Rosenthal joins "The Model" Cynthia Frelund for the latest round of picks against the spread. Featured games include Rams at Panthers, Raiders at Chargers, Broncos at Commanders, Texans at Colts, Vikings at Seahawks and Jaguars at Titans.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters.

We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Fiorio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies.

Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, the Off the Edge with Cam Jordan podcast.

Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment. About anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture. And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15, season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season, the season of more on the Off the Edge

with Cam Joined podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Brought to you by Liberty Mutual Insurance. Only pay for what you need. Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. Welcome to NFL Daily,

where we're ready for some post- Thanksgiving winners. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio with my friend, Cynthia Freeland, for a special holiday edition of our picks. That was the Colleen Wolf voice. We used to call this man versus model. It was your computer model. You're the busiest woman in show business this week. No, we all have this is weird schedule.

It's the most fun week of the year. I just do a lot of extra cooking, which makes things very great. Yes, but you're on the game day. morning on Thanksgiving morning. For like a second. We're putting this up on Thanksgiving morning. We had game debut. We have all of our preview shows.

So please check that all out. And when I say we're looking for post- Thanksgiving winners, the reason I said that, Cynthia, is because for this show, we decided, look, this is going up pretty close to those games. Let's pick the games after Thanksgiving. We pick three games every week against the spread. Last week, I kept my winning streak going.

and I finished two and one so eighth straight week that I've had a winning record on this show you got back on the winning track so that is good to hear unfortunately like why are you shaking your head oh no I've just got a long way to go I got a long way to go

okay we'll do it then by picking some winners here you are up let's go first give me the Rams the Rams to cover okay that was one of the ones I was thinking about so I like that L-A-R versus C-A-R it's at Carolina it's 10 and a half points that's the last I saw I don't even

care if you can bid that all the way up to 13 I think they win I think they win going away this is the best team in football right now against a team that you know they looked it was a very bad game that San Francisco I mean just a it was a tough tough hang yes tough hang for that one so I'm looking at that game and Carolina caused some turnovers we saw some weird I don't think against Matthew Stafford and this offense and that defense is not going to look the same. So it might be boring, but for different reasons. Yeah, I think that could be like a three score game very easily. Carolina's defense, if you're going to beat the Rams, you have to get some pressure on Matthew

Stafford. Like a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford. They don't get any pressure. No. Their linebacker struggling. I think it could be bad against this tight end group. And ultimately, I don't think, I don't find the Carolina Panthers. Frisky?

Like that serious. That's serious of a football. At least as a playoff. You didn't like my like. I think it was a beautiful. Punt. It's a family weekend. You need a pun.

Okay. So you pointed out the Rams. That was one of the ones I was thinking about. And they were in a category. I like a lot of games this week. You do? I do. Okay.

There was a category of games and I wanted to mix it up between the categories. And so I was going to pick one. And I was like, okay, I won't pick the one Cynthia's picking. That's how many games I like. And this category was, you know, I'm really good and you did not give like enough points. Like you could give 13 points like you said

and it wouldn't be enough. I would still take the Rams. And so here's the category of teams I would throw in that mix this week. I'm only going to take one of them. The Broncos, I mean, they're only getting six points against that commander's team.

I'd be fine with that. The Seahawks. They're only getting 10 and a half points against Max Brosmer and the Vikings. I think that could be one. And you're free to take one of those because I'm not. This is a category.

Orii games. The Rams would be in that mix. But of that group of like the heavy favorites who I still think it's not enough, give me the Los Angeles Chargers. Minus 10 this week against the I don't want to be around here anymore, Raiders offense and team. And I know they fired Chip Kelly and maybe they get a little fired coach bounce. It's somehow better with Greg Olson. But I think the Chargers coming off a buy. They've been a different team, especially on defense at home. We saw this Chargers Raiders matchups earlier in the year, the Raiders offense had nothing going on in that game. I have no reason to believe that that offensive line can stop Tully and Khalil Mack and Adafay-O-A and everything going on with the Chargers defense. Pretty sure Amari and Hampton will be back

in this one too, which, you know, that's a plus. Like, I'm with you on the entire analysis. I'm with you if the price were bit up to even more points as a differential between the two. I don't think that the coach bump that would potentially happen here is going to, I don't know if O lines get the coach, I don't know if they get the memo on that. Maybe some skill players do, but like, I think the O line. And as good as we've seen Ashton Genti v. in general, because he'd have to run against the chargers to have some sort of, you know, answer to that pressure that you're talking about. He gets hit behind the line to scrimmage on pretty much all of his yards. If the amount of yards he's actually run for versus the ones that have counted as positive, it's mass ad. So it's,

it's just yeah and he's not in the offensive line coach is pete carroll's son so you're not getting the bump and you're not firing your son we talked a bit a little bit about this on the previous i love p that that's the right move i do feel bad and you cannot fire your son you have a whole i'm not firing my son you're like to live right i'm saying if it's peak carroll right no you got it was uh some nepo baby stuff not probably the right higher uh but ultimately you got to go down as a family and I'm going to go up picking against the Raiders maybe every week they are one of the worst NFL teams I've ever seen I actually was surprised this number was so low so that's the team I'll pick out of that category of games that's my first pick I'm not even going to get started on their

draft class because if you look at oh not good anyways all right you can go and you could pick from that category I'm going to pick from that category oh you are I saw your eyes light up here I came prepared okay because I got real serious this week oh okay you know I really you had a winning week last week you want to build on that. I got to build on my wins, right? So Denver, you talked about that? Yeah. So, okay. Yeah. I'm

sure you're going to give me a little bit of bait. I'm going to take it. Six points? All right. So number one, Denver's defense. You know, everyone, we watched Houston's defense in the big time spotlight against the bills. Denver's defense is like, excuse me, do you

not remember what we did to Patrick Mahomes? I have an issue to raise against you. Right? So I'm looking at that and saying, and then look, like, I love Dan Quinn. He's a really nice man. I don't think his defense can have, has enough. Even if they kind of get it all together to stop, even the, maybe it's just the fourth quarter for Bo Nix. That's maybe all he needs. But I think this is where Bo Nix takes this step and kind of turns this corner of like only the screen pass dude. I think he goes now and takes a step forward. This is a defense to do it against. Just watch what the Lions did to this secondary before.

They don't have a lot of answers for, you know, even any downfield pass. So I hope the listeners saw that and the viewers. Cynthia Freeland hit poor Dan Quinn with. He's a nice man. He is so nice. But that's when that happens, you're in trouble. When Cynthia hits you with a he's a nice man, things aren't going well.

You were feeling bad for Pete Carroll. I know. He's so nice too. I would love to run some analytics on how often a guy who you say is a nice man or you feel bad for covers the number. I bet it's very low and I'm with you. That line was weird. It did feel like bait. Why was the Broncos only six point?

I know they're on the road and everything, but it's supposed to be Mario out of this week. It's that defense of the commanders. I think the Broncos offense, by the way, might be turning a corner. They played pretty well in that game against the team. I think so too. I think they're going to be good the rest of the way. Okay. I'm going to go to what's my favorite pick.

It's the Texas. They're getting four and a half points in Indianapolis, and I think they're going to win straight up. And I don't feel incredibly confident about them winning straight up, but I do feel great about them getting four and a half points. The weird number. I think it's a defensive game, and I do get that the underlying numbers,

and maybe your model reflects that somewhat, I don't really know, are really positive on the Colts. offense. But they're also really positive on the Texans defense overall. It is a transcendent defense. And I do think getting C.J. Stroud is going to really help this offense out. As we're taping, it's not official, but he is expected to come back. And the thing that's really impressed me about the Texans lately with Davis Mills has not been Mills in the passing game. It's been neck. Well, that is always impressive. And he has gotten some wins. The running game has been better. It's been a pretty good running game with Woody Marks on our show Game DeVue.

I've been on a little bit of a streak there. We have write this down with player pop. Yeah, you're a great streak there. Woody Marks over 55 and a half rushing yards. That's a little extra for this show. Bonus. He's been running great. And I think they've got some cohesion running the ball up front.

And the Colts, on their defensive line, they're not the same without DeForest Buckner. So, man, I think this Texan season is turning around. I really do. I think the four and a half is good. Do I think they win straight up? Probably not, but I, I don't feel great about that. That's what the model. My model does have four and a half points.

I have a three point win for Indianapolis, but it's more like two point six points, which I know people hate fractional points, but whatever. I like it because it's closer to my side. 2.6, you're saying you're covering that number by 2? That's all we need on this show for me to get a winner. And I think, I'm looking at Houston, and remember this is, they have two matchups left with the Colts. So Houston still has the entire division to potentially win here.

They have everything to play for. they're coming off of that big high against the bills with something tangible, meaning they found ways to just get Josh Allen, who's a better quarterback than almost anyone they'll face, better quarterback than Daniel Jones. That's not shade. It's just a fact. And you're going to get him off his mark.

And they're not dissimilar. Daniel Jones can run the ball and nowhere near what Josh Allen can do. But you can get Josh Allen off his game. So I think that the technical defense is real feisty. You know what I thought, though, as you're talking too, it supports your point. shorter rest for the Colts. Do like a little extra rest for the Texans. And then I'm thinking about how that game played out

against the Chiefs last week. 90 snaps for the Colts defense. So that's a tired defense on less rest. It's just like another small reason. It's more about the eyeball test that number one, I think this is a special defense. And number two, I think the offense is improving from disastrous to...

competent like 21st you know what i mean just like looking like a normal enough jaden higgins starting to play better neico collins looking like neico collins like everything about it they're just looking respectable that's all i need let's go texans make my boy walker happy all right your third pick all right i mean i'm gonna go all over here you kind of talked about it a Seattle okay you're doing it i just think it's an undervalued number I do too You know, and if I see a mispray stock, I'm going to snatch it up

because 10 and a half points at home against Minnesota, I don't know if you saw all the weird, when you start to see like strange things coming out in the media, you know like the home life isn't good there. For Minnesota. Yeah, and Minnesota,

it's like some weirdo stuff. And I, you know, I'm cool, Max Brosmer. Okay, like I kind of feel bad for the kid. Like, you know, you're coming in and Justin's not had the year that he would have liked to have. and, you know, you see this is from frustration and these things and, like, all the stuff's boiling over at the moment.

Maybe he needs that V-O. Max, and maybe he needs to, you know, start track. I think it might, I mean, I think it'll be an upgrade. I think it might be an upgrade at quarterback. So that wouldn't be the reason. No. But we also don't know. I feel bad for him because it's a bad circumstance. It's, you know, if the starter, if the backup's better than the starter, they'd be the starter.

But, like, you know, it's just a hard situation to come into. It would be better if they were, you know, just resting everyone, week 18 style. But, you know. We got six games to play. I heard, it was actually a Vikings beat. right or write something like the only positive from this Packers game is you know the next only have five games to Thanksgiving and we're hitting the end of the season and I'm thinking not really six games is a long time in the NFL six games is in eternity and this Seahawks

defense is just going to swallow up that injured Vikings offensive line hole so even if Brosmer plays well and I think he might have something I think they like him a little bit I like him a little bit I mean I have no feeling better than James McCartney I just I just I don't know about that I like 10 and a half. Yeah, I just think that Seattle a lot better than that. I think these, this Rams and Seahawks, these two teams are not only the best teams in the NFL. I think they're the best teams in the NFL with like a tier below to whoever is three and four. And so that's why I think you're right.

The good news is that this would feel so much more wide open than any other recent season. So maybe we won't see like a repeat of the same Super Bowl, you know. Like I feel like I've seen the Chiefs a lot, seeing the Eagles a good amount. You know, maybe we see. in there, but it's been a while. Yeah, but maybe some new blood. It's been five years since the race made it. I'm just saying, so it'd be fun to see different colors, you know?

Okay, so I have one more pick to go. Now, I have certain rules. You have rules? You know, maxims that I tend to go by. Okay. One of them is don't pick against your own team because then you don't really enjoy either way. And I broke that rule earlier this season when I went against the Patriots. And you know what?

They covered that week. And so I was wrong and I was annoyed. by it. So I will not pick against the Patriots this week. They are favored by seven and a half against the Giants, but I'm just going to be real for people who like extra pick. People who like real. People who like extra picks, too. They're like, why only three? Give us more. I know. My neighbor said that. We've been kind of giving a few more this week. I really like the Giants to cover that number this week, but I'm not going to make that one. No, don't do that. I just don't. I want to enjoy it If the Patriots win big, but I don't think they will because their offensive line was struggling to run block and really pass protect before losing the entire left side of their offensive line.

They can't run the ball right now in general. And their defensive line quietly, not nearly the same without Milton Williams. I think the Giants are a very frisky team. I just think it's going to be a good ball game and seven and a half is too many points. So putting that to the- I'm with you. You're with me. Okay. Here's the final category.

And it's one of the maximum. You just look at the lines, and especially on lines that are like six and above or so. You're like, this NFL team has not earned the right to be favored by six points in any game. And I don't even care what the opponent is. I don't care about the situation. It's just, you haven't earned the right to be six point favorites. There's two candidates. And so maybe we'll talk them through it.

But I like them both. The Miami Dolphins are six point favorites over the Saints. they're the Miami Dolphins and I got to admit the team I'm leaning towards even though they're seven and four Jacksonville Jaguars I don't know I've earned the right

to be six and a half point favorites in Tennessee and I know the opponent should matter to me but I've watched the Titans the last few weeks They've gotten a little bit better They've gotten a little bit better And it's a division matchup The Titans are at home too So in this case the dolphins are at home

But the Jaguars are six and a half point favorites on the road neither of these teams I feel like have earned the right to be this big a favorite just blindly I will take the other side in these games I think I'm leaning towards the Titans covering

and look they covered last week against the sea I like it you like the Seahawks last I mean you like the Titans last week to cover yeah I think that they cover again and I talked to you out of it or I tried to talk you out of it it got murky

it got murky but I'm I actually am with you I think there's something about this team and I don't I don't like you're getting special teams things to start happen they're they're digging down they're you know like it's one of those things where it's like well what have we got to lose let's figure this out you know like let's have a little fun doesn't mean you win games no but it means you keep it closer yeah and uh I do like the saints to cover that six despite how poorly they've played they've kind of been in every other week

team you might get a better performance out of them against the dolphins but ultimately yes I'm going to go with the Titans who to me I test-wise, they just have been better overall. Defensively, game boards playing pretty well. And more than anything, I don't know what this Jaguar's team is. No one does. They just... Do you think they know?

Their success rate on design runs last week were 20% and yet they had a couple big runs. Like, I don't even know, I don't know what to do with them. And so it's a division game, I think the Titans keep it close. That's what we do here. That's what we do. We give winners. We love winners.

Eight straight weeks for me. You're feeling good. You're crushing me on game day view. Everyone check that out. NFL network throughout the weekend, by the way. And it's also on YouTube, I should point out. We, they call it game picks on YouTube, but they put our show up on YouTube. It would say like Week 13 game pick.

So if you're watching us on YouTube in terms of NFL Daily, thank you. Yeah. And you just head over there. And then head over to Cynthia's channel, Numbers game. Yeah. And then you got the show with Logan Ryan too. NFL IQ. NFL IQ.

Cynthia, the hardest working woman in the building. Says the man who literally works seven days a week. It's a nice compliment. Let's get out of here. Let's go eat some turkey. Leftovers. Everyone listening. Yeah.

Has a great Thanksgiving and a great weekend. Because we'll be back. We'll actually be back next in this feed, Black Friday. So we're doing a recap of the Thanksgiving games and the Black Friday game. Come have some fun with us then. Thank you, Cynthia. Happy Thanksgiving. Hey, everybody.

Buddy Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape,

talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast on,

the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up? It's Cam Jordan. I'm back with season three of your favorite podcast, The Off the Edge with Cam Jordan podcast. Tap in every Wednesday to hear conversations with my friends and stars for the NFL, the sports world in general, and entertainment. About anything from teams and players making waves to pop culture. And I'll take you inside my journey through my 15th season in the NFL. Looking forward to you joining me this season, the season of more on the Off the Edge with Cam Joined podcast. Catch new episodes every Wednesday on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Brought to you by Liberty Mutual Insurance. Only pay for what you need. Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.